The Philadelphia 76ers have a big dilemma on their hands. A 7-foot, 280-pound dilemma named Joel Embiid.

Or, if you prefer years and numbers: A four-year, $248 million dilemma named Joel Embiid.

By now, you know Embiid is out for the rest of this season. He’s got a chronic left knee issue. Embiid said it would not be corrected until he could have further surgery. Yet, for some reason, he continued to play for several more games. Eventually, the pain became too much. And after another week of obfuscation, Embiid was shut down for the season.

It was clear from watching him play this season, that things were never really right for the former MVP. Embiid looked like he was dragging his left leg up and down the floor. He’s so talented, that he was still putting up decent counting stats, but the efficiency and impact on both ends of the floor were basically gone.

Embiid put up his lowest points, rebounds and blocks since his shortened rookie season. What really took a hit was his efficiency. The Sixers center hit just 44.4% from the field, including only 29.9% on three-pointers. In addition, Embiid was averaging under a block per game for the first time in his career.

In a sad, but perfect, example of the eye test matching the stats, Embiid wasn’t the same guy.

When Joel Embiid was coming into the NBA, an often-made comp was to Patrick Ewing. Dominant, strong big man who could control the glass, protect the rim and score in a variety of ways on offense. Ewing was regularly billed as the best jump-shooting center (he didn’t take threes, because that wasn’t a thing for most centers when Ewing played) during his career. The same label has been applied to Embiid.

Now, their careers appear to be taking the same tragic turn. After an injury-filled rookie season, Ewing began a run of All-Star and All-NBA appearances that lasted for decade, but sadly, an NBA title eluded the Knicks big man. Then injuries hit again.

Over the final three seasons of his Knicks career, Ewing regularly missed time. Then he finished his career with two forgettable and somewhat injury-plagued seasons with the Seattle SuperSonics and Orlando Magic.

By the end, Ewing couldn’t really move or jump. He was still semi-effective because he had that nice touch on his shot and he was strong enough to hold his position on defense. But he was no longer much of a defensive presence, the rebounding was down and ability to dominate games in the paint was gone.

Sounds familiar, right? Sadly, this could be where we’re headed with Joel Embiid. One major difference? Ewing wrapped up his career as a role player making role player money. Embiid hasn’t even started his next max contract yet.

The Contract

Joel Embiid is currently wrapping up his third NBA contract. Embiid signed a four-year, Designated Veteran Extension that was set to run from 2023-24 through 2026-27. Embiid ended up cancelling out his player option on that final season to sign a new three-year Veteran Extension that will run from 2026-27 through 2028-29. All total, here’s what Embiid is owed over the next four seasons:

  • 2025-26: $55,224,526 (final season of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $59,539,200 (first season of three-year Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $64,302,336
  • 2028-29: $69,065,472 (player option)
  • Total: four years, $248,131,534

We’re going to go ahead and include that player option as being picked up as we do any future analysis of Embiid’s situation. He’ll turn 35 years old during the 2028-29 season and barring something unexpected, he’s almost guaranteed to pick up that option.

It’s worth noting that the 2026-27 season is based on Embiid maxing out at the 35% of the cap marker. There’s always the possibility that the cap comes in slightly lower than 10% growth in each of the next two seasons, but that seems unlikely.

Another point worth noting: There are no protections for Philadelphia in Embiid’s current deal or his previous deal. Embiid’s rookie scale extension famously had several benchmarks, that if missed could have allowed the 76ers to get out of the contract relatively free and clear. Those protections don’t exist on Embiid’s current contract, nor his extension that starts in 2026-27.

Last, but not least, point worth noting: Embiid is one of three max players on the Sixers books through at least the 2027-28 season. Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are both on maximum contracts for the next three seasons too. Here’s what the trio of Embiid, George and Maxey combine for against the projected cap for each of the next three seasons:

  • 2025-26: $144,849,376 against a projected cap of $154,647,000
  • 2026-27: $154,436,100 against a projected cap of $170,112,000
  • 2027-28: $164,471,286 against a projected cap of $187,123,000

Essentially, even with projected cap growth outpacing salary growth, the Embiid, George, Maxey trio takes up the entire salary cap by themselves. Factor in other players, roster minimums and draft picks, Philadelphia will be over the cap and working around the luxury tax and tax aprons for the next few years with these three on the roster.

And that leads us to the decision points for the Sixers.

Trade Options

Philadelphia could look at all of the above and say that they and Joel Embiid have fought the good fight together, but now it’s time to go their separate ways. In that case, the Sixers could search out trade options for the big man.

Going that route opens up a couple of questions: Can Philadelphia trade Embiid? And who would trade for an injury-prone max contract center in today’s apron-fearing, perimeter-based NBA?

The first one is easily answered. There are no restrictions for the 76ers to trade Joel Embiid. He doesn’t have a no-trade clause of any kind. He’ll be trade-eligible by the offseason. That’s the easy part.

The harder part is finding a team who would take on Embiid and his massive contract. But the old saying in sports comes into play here: It only takes one…we’ll let finish that quote yourselves.

Some team, maybe even a few of them, will convince themselves that they, and their medical staff, can get Embiid right. They’ll look at it as maybe even stealing a former MVP and a regular All-Star on the cheap, in terms of trade capital.

In addition, there are a couple of teams who might look at their cap sheet and roster and will decide that they can deal with it if Embiid misses time. Maybe those teams are deep enough that they can manage the big man through the season by playing him 45-50 games a year.

Finally, there might be a team or two who are stuck enough that taking a chance on Embiid isn’t any bigger of a gamble than being a perennial lottery team anyway.

Without getting into specific trade ideas, we’ll probably have plenty of time for that over the next couple of years, someone would trade for Joel Embiid and the nearly $250 million he’s owed. It only takes one, after all.

Waive and Stretch

More than a few times while talking about Joel Embiid, someone has asked “Could Philly just waive and stretch him?”

Let’s say the 76ers decided to just press the red button and activate the nuclear option this offseason, they could attempt to waive and stretch Embiid. That would take the $248 million that Embiid is owed and spread that out over a whopping nine seasons at approximately $27.6 million per season. 

Quick explainer: The stretch provision takes the money owed to a player and spreads it evenly over a number of years that is twice the years remaining on the contract, plus one additional year. In Embiid’s case, the player option on his final season would be exercised. That would give him four years and $248 million on his contract. That would be stretched over nine seasons at $27.6 million per season.

Now, forget all of that.

Teams aren’t allowed to waive and stretch a player if the amount of the player’s stretched salary will exceed 15% of the salary cap for the season the player is being waived.

If this was to happen this upcoming season, 15% of the projected cap is $23.2 million. So, no dice there, as Embiid’s stretched salary amount would be more than 15% of the projected cap. The same would be true of the 2026-27 season too.

If Embiid is still on the roster, and things are so bad that Philly can’t trade him and they need to waive and stretch the big man, the earliest they could do that would be ahead of the 2027-28 season.

But it won’t ever get that far. If things are that bad, there’s an outside chance another option will have come into play before the summer of 2027.

Medical Retirement

If it’s believed at any point that Joel Embiid can no longer play, the 76ers could petition the NBA for an injury exclusion due to a medical retirement. In his case, Embiid would continue to receive his full salary, but Philadelphia would see his contract fully removed from their books moving forward.

If things got to this point, the Sixers would waive Embiid and his entire contract would stay on their books. At a point that is one year from his last NBA game, Philadelphia could then petition for an injury exclusion. (There’s also a clause where if the player plays 10 games or fewer in a season, the can back-date things back to the previous season’s final game played.)

From the point where the team petitions for the injury exclusion, the NBA and NBPA would jointly select a doctor/physician, or they would convene the Fitness to Play panel, to review the player’s injury history and the medical case. That doctor/physician or the Fitness to Play panel would then determine if the player’s injuries will prevent them from playing again.

If the finding is that the player can no longer play, then the contract is immediately removed from the team’s cap sheet. If the team is still over the cap following removal of the player’s salary, they are still over the cap. They don’t get an exception to replace the player.

A few more notes:

  • If the player beats the odds and returns to play, his salary is put back on the team’s cap sheet (through the terms of the original contract), provided that the player plays in 25 games in any one season after the exclusion was approved.
  • If the injury exclusion is approved, the player cannot re-sign with that team. The team also cannot re-acquire that player via trade or waivers.
  • An injury exclusion can be sought only during the terms of the original contract. If the player was waived and stretched, the team must petition for the injury exclusion during the terms of the original contract, not the years that the salary was stretched over.
  • If the player makes it back to play, but then is unable to play in the future, the team can reapply for a subsequent injury exclusion for the remainder of the contract. The process would be exactly the same as the original petition.

To be abundantly clear: There is no indication that the 76ers or Embiid are anywhere near this point. All statements from the team, and all reporting from both the team and player sides, are that Embiid intends to return to play. We are simply laying this option out as one Philadelphia could take at some point over the next four years.

Summary

The Philadelphia 76ers are in a tough spot with Joel Embiid, just as Embiid is in a tough spot with his own career. Yes, Embiid could simply walk away, the Sixers could apply for the injury exclusion and everyone sort of wins. Embiid still gets paid and the 76ers get out of the contract.

But it’s not nearly that simple. Embiid wants to play. No matter how much criticism you might want to lay on the guy, Embiid has worked very hard to play. He played in the Olympics when he probably shouldn’t have. He played through injuries this season when he definitely shouldn’t have. Given there is an option to get paid to not play and Embiid hasn’t taken it, it’s clear he wants to play.

Beyond that, Philadelphia clearly wants their All-Star center on the floor. We can argue if they’ve handled Embiid well (the argument here would be that they haven’t in recent years), but the Sixers aren’t trying to get him off the roster. If they were, they wouldn’t have continued to give him maximum contract extensions.

For now, the plan seems to be for Embiid to get further surgery or to rehab with the idea to be back at some point next season. Ideally, this process will start ASAP and Embiid will be ready close to the start of next season. However, it does seem like all parties involved are invested in getting this right this time around. If the rehab process lasts into next season, so be it. There’s a lot more at stake here than some regular season games.

Beyond this season, it’s anyone’s guess. If Embiid is able to get moderately healthy and return to being a productive (if no longer dominant) player, then the Sixers will be happy to have him in the fold.

If Embiid can’t return to form, then we start to consider trade options. If he can’t get moderately healthy, then we look at the other options we laid out. But those are 2026 questions. For now, all anyone can do is hope that Embiid can get right and get back to being himself again for next season. Any course of action from there will be determined down the line.