The calendar has flipped to March which signals extension time in Major League Baseball and Spotrac examined 10 pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players that could be considered for long term deals before Opening Day and beyond.

Note:  These extensions typically include Club options, or Player opt-outs in certain situations . Predictions are only an estimate of potential guarantees and do not account for additional option years or opt-out scenarios.

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MLB Pre-Arbitration Extensions
MLB Arbitration Extensions

Jackson Merrill (OF - SDP)

Merrill blew away expectations in his first season, leading all rookies in hits (162), extra-base hits (61), RBIs (90), batting average (.292) and slugging percentage (.500). He became only the 16th rookie to win a Silver Slugger (since 1980) and finished 9th in MVP voting as a 21-year-old. The most impressive part? He did it while switching from shortstop to centerfield, a position he had never played professionally. We later discovered that San Diego had engaged in extension talks before Merrill debuted but nothing materialized. The baseline for a deal at that point might have been similar to the 8 year, $82 million extension Jackson Chourio signed prior to his first game. Now a Merrill extension could land somewhere between Corbin Carroll (8 year, $13.875M AAV) and Julio Rodriguez (12 year, $17.4M+ AAV). Perhaps the ownership battle complicates any short term spending but we know the Padres will commit to cornerstone players as we saw with Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340M).

Prediction:  7 years, $119M ($17M+ AAV); through age 28 season buying out two UFA years

Adley Rutschman (C - BAL)

This could easily have been Gunnar Henderson but it might already be too late for an extension on the heels of his 9 WAR season. Instead, Baltimore could try to lock up a different core piece in backstop Adley Rutschman. The former 1st overall pick will make $5.5M in 2025 and is on pace to earn an additional $20M across his final two years of arbitration. Negotiations will get increasingly difficult as Rutschman inches towards free agency in 2027 so the Orioles should move quickly if they have any hope of an extension. The organization has not made a long term commitment to a player under team control since Adam Jones in 2013 but there’s optimism the new ownership group could take a different approach with their top young players. Top prospect (C) Samuel Basallo is ready to contribute but likely shifts to 1B/DH at some point making him less of a long term replacement option for Rutschman.

Prediction:  6 years, $90M ($15M AAV); through age 32 season buying out three UFA years

Justin Steele (SP - CHC)

Steele received Cy Young votes after a breakout 2023 season and finished 2024 in similar form despite an early season hamstring injury suffered in the Cubs first game. In fact, his 2.65 ERA from June onward was on par with eventual Cy Young winners Chris Sale (2.53) and Tarik Sukbal (2.59) in that same period. With three full seasons until free agency, Steele might be incentivized to sign an extension and avoid hitting the market at age 32. His 2025 salary ($6.55M) is an obvious bargain for Chicago but that value will jump significantly in the final two years of team control. For example, Framber Valdez made $6.8M as a second year Super Two and $30.1M over the next two seasons. Steele has been with the organization since 2014 and the Cubs could view him as the piece to build around with Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Matt Boyd all likely off the payroll after 2026. A long term agreement could land near the 7 year, $131 extension Jose Berrios signed in 2022.

Prediction:  6 years / $105M (17.5 AAV); through age 34 season buying out three UFA years

Elly De La Cruz (SS - CIN)

Over a decade has passed since Joey Votto signed a 10 year, $225M contract with Cincinnati but there is at least precedent for a huge commitment to a cornerstone player within the organization. De La Cruz could be next after producing the Reds best offensive season (6.4 WAR) since 2015 but they would need to move fast before another MVP-caliber season skyrockets the value. But there is reason for optimism on a long term extension. De La Cruz signed a deal with the firm Big League Advantage (BLA) in 2018 and received a loan in exchange for 10% of his future earnings. Why is that important? Despite a relatively small footprint in MLB, several BLA players have already signed significant early career extensions including Fernando Tatis Jr., Keibert Ruiz, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela and Christopher Sanchez. Perhaps De La Cruz receives similar guidance and seeks an early guarantee which could potentially land anywhere between Wander Franco (11 years, $182M) and Bobby Witt Jr. (11 years, $288M+)

Prediction:  11 years, $275M ($25M AAV); through age 33 season buying out six UFA years

Mason Miller (RP - ATH)

This seemed unthinkable as recently as November but the Athletics finally added payroll this offseason after years of relative inactivity. They signed Luis Severino via free agency but the 5 year, $60M arbitration extension for Brent Rooker is more important for this specific conversation considering it was the organization’s first long term agreement with a player under control since Trevor Cahill in 2011. We know they won’t fundamentally change how they handle cost controlled players but the A’s could utilize an expanded payroll to target situations that might produce long term savings. That would be the thought process with Miller, who established himself as perhaps the most dominant closer in MLB last year leading all qualified relievers in strikeout rate (41.8%) and K/9 (14.4). His pre-arbitration salary is a huge value this year but the next four seasons will get expensive. Miller will qualify for arbitration as a Super Two starting in 2026 and Josh Hader made $35.875M across his four arbitration seasons despite some early career usage detractors. He should have no issue clearing that total assuming health and similar results.

Prediction:  6 years, $45M (7.5M AAV); through age 31 season buying out one UFA year

Riley Greene (OF - DET)

The former 5th overall pick largely underwhelmed across his first two seasons but got on track last year ranking 20th in WRC+ (135) among all hitters. Detroit already signed Colt Keith through at least 2029 and could continue focusing on internal extensions after missing out on top free agents in recent off seasons. Riley is eligible for arbitration next year and free agency in 2029 but the Tigers could extend him now to ensure he’s part of the long term core as they keep building towards a potential Max Clark in 2027.

Prediction:  7 years, $92M ($13.1M+ AAV); through age 30 season buying out three UFA years

Gabriel Moreno (C - ARI) 

We know the Diamondbacks are open to these extensions, having signed Corbin Carroll in 2023 and Geraldo Perdomo earlier this offseason, and they could be searching for additional cost certainty amidst their highest ever payrolls in 2024 and 2025. Moreno is the next best candidate following an impressive but not expensive start to his young career. He provides above average offense and Gold Glove defense but lacks the counting stats that command high arbitration salaries making it more likely he’d prioritize an immediate guarantee rather than risk taking it year-to-year. Moreno could realistically target a deal approaching the 6 year, $73M extension Sean Murphy signed in his first year of arbitration.

Prediction:  7 years, $84M ($12M AAV); through age 31 season buying out three UFA years

Roman Anthony (OF - BOS)

This is a long shot but not unrealistic considering the low service time extensions signed by premium prospects in recent years. We saw Boston take this approach last April signing Ceddanne Rafaela to an 8 year, $50M extension following just 28 games in 2023 and they should consider something similar with Anthony who is the consensus top position prospect in baseball. Prospect Promotion Incentive could also factor in here and the Red Sox know how valuable those picks can be having drafted Roman Anthony with compensation from Eduardo Rodriguez.

Prediction:  8 years, $85M ($10.625 AAV); through age 28 season buying out two UFA years

Cade Smith (RP - CLE)

Cleveland extended Emmanuel Clase after a breakout rookie season but before establishing himself as one of the elite closers in MLB. They could try something similar with Cade Smith who showed comparable upside in his first full season. Think of Mason Miller but without the saves driving up his cost, although Smith could be a 9th inning option if Cleveland makes Clase available ahead of increasing Club option salaries in 2026/2027.

Prediction: 5 years, $15M ($3M AAV); through age 30 season buying out remaining years of Club control

Wyatt Langford (OF - TEX)

The Rangers have shown they’re willing to spend in free agency but that strategy is difficult to sustain long term. At some point they’ll need to lock in some cost controlled savings and that should start with an extension for the former 4th overall pick. His five tool profile has superstar potential and Texas likely saw enough in his first full season to at least discuss a long term extension before he starts earning MVP votes.

Prediction:  8 years, $100M ($12.5M AAV); through age 30 season buying out three UFA years