Calculated Contract Projections for MLB's Young Stars

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertNovember 10, 2016
© USA TODAY Sports

Bryce Harper (OF, Washington Nationals)

8 years, $192,173,535 ($24,021,692 AAV) 

Harper cut his 2015 numbers in half throughout a struggle-filled 2016 campaign, but is still on track for a major pay day in the near future. He's eligible for arbitration in both 2017 & 2018 before hitting free agency for the first time in 2019, but having come off a down year, Washington may be looking to cash in on Harper this offseason with a much lower offer than many had previously thought necessary. His $24M per year market value ties with Mike Trout's annual salary, and places him behind only Miguel Cabrera ($31M) and Giancarlo Stanton ($25M). 

 

Kris Bryant (3B, Chicago Cubs)

8 years, $191,818,837 ($23,977,355 AAV)

Bryant will likely be named the NL MVP in the coming days, and was the difference maker in the Cubs series win over the Indians last month. The 24-year-old now carries a career .284 average and .900 OPS in two full seasons, and isn't eligible for free agency until 2022. His calculated market value comes in just below Harper's $24M mark, and would rank 5th among all active batters currently. Should his production continue at its current pace, Bryant's value will be nearing $30M in no time. 

 

Brian Dozier (2B, Minnesota Twins)

6 years, $119,497,816 ($19,916,303 AAV) 

Dozier is signed through 2018 with the Twins at $6M & $9M respectively. While $15M over two years is a perfectly fine living, the bottom line here is that Dozier has been exceptional over the past three seasons. Since 2014 the 29-year-old is averaging 38 doubles, 33 home runs, 86 RBIs, and an .800 OPS per season. His nearly $20M calculated market value would rank him 2nd only to Robinson Cano ($24M) among active 2nd basemen. 

 

Jonathan Lucroy (C, Texas Rangers)

5 years, $78,924,180 ($15,784,836 AAV)

Lucroy joined the Rangers after 6+ seasons with the Brewers and carries a $5.25M salary in 2017. The 30-year old is set to hit the free agent market following the upcoming season, and has put together recent production that carries a $15.7M calculated market value, a figure that ranks 4th among active catchers. 

 

Nolan Arenado (3B, Colorado Rockies)

8 years, $147,298,608 ($18,412,326 AAV)

Arenado's arguably been the most complete player in all of baseball over the past two seasons, tallying 83 HR, 263 RBIs, a .291 average, and a .915 OPS in that time frame. He's also won 4 consecutive Gold Glove awards. Contractually the 25 year old is arbitration eligible through 2019, but with Arenado's production only increasing seemingly, his market value will continue to rise rapidly. His current $18.4M valuation ranks 2nd to Pablo Sandoval ($19M) among active 3rd basemen contracts. 

 

Manny Machado (3B, Baltimore Orioles)

8 years, $140,442,600 ($17,555,325 AAV)

Like Arenado, Manny Machado has posted back to back elite seasons at the hot corner with Machado posting a just a bit less power numbers to his resume. The 24-year old is arbitration eligible through 2018, making him set to hit the free agent market one year earlier than Arenado. Machado's calculated value currently stands about $1M below Arenado's $18.4M (above).

 

Wil Myers (1B, San Diego Padres)

6 years, $75,137,508 ($12,522,918 AAV)

Myers appears to have found a comfortable landing spot in San Diego, and the Padres appear poised to reward him with a long-term deal in light of it. The 25 year old is set to hit arbitration for the first time this offseason, but in terms of a veteran extension, is calculating toward a $12.5M per year deal. 


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