- PREMIUM
- HOME
- NFL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
- NBA
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
Southeast
Atlantic
Southwest
Northwest
- MLB
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
AL West
AL East
NL West
NL East
- NHL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
Atlantic
Pacific
- WNBA
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
Eastern
- EPL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
- MLS
Transactions
Trending Players
Eastern
- ATL Atlanta UnitedAtlanta United FC
- MTL MontrealCF Montreal
- CLT CharlotteCharlotte FC
- CHI FireChicago Fire
- CLB Columbus CrewColumbus Crew
- DC UnitedD.C. United
- CIN CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
- MIA Inter MiamiInter Miami FC
- NSH NashvilleNashville SC
- NE RevolutionNew England Revolution
- NYC New York CityNew York City FC
- RBNY Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
- ORL Orlando CityOrlando City
- PHI UnionPhiladelphia Union
- TOR TorontoToronto FC
Western
- ATX AustinAustin FC
- COL RapidsColorado Rapids
- DAL DallasFC Dallas
- HOU DynamoHouston Dynamo
- LA GalaxyLA Galaxy
- LAFC Los AngelesLos Angeles FC
- MIN MinnesotaMinnesota United FC
- POR TimbersPortland Timbers
- RSL Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake
- SD San Diego FCSan Diego FC
- SJ EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes
- SEA SoundersSeattle Sounders FC
- SKC Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
- STL St. Louis CITYSt. Louis CITY SC
- VAN WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps FC
- NWSL
Popular Pages
Transactions
Trending Players
- ACFC Angel City FCAngel City FC
- BFC Bay FCBay FC
- CHI Chicago Red StarsChicago Red Stars
- HOU Houston DashHouston Dash
- KC Kansas City CurrentKansas City Current
- NJNY NJ/NY Gotham FCNJ/NY Gotham FC
- NC North Carolina CourageNorth Carolina Courage
- ORL Orlando PrideOrlando Pride
- POR Portland Thorns FCPortland Thorns FC
- LOU Racing Louisville FCRacing Louisville FC
- SD San Diego Wave FCSan Diego Wave FC
- SEA Seattle Reign FCSeattle Reign FC
- UTA Utah Royals FCUtah Royals FC
- WAS Washington SpiritWashington Spirit
- GOLF
Popular Pages
Trending Players
- TENNIS
ATP
WTA
- RACING
NASCAR CUP
FORMULA 1
- PVF
- OLYMPICS
How Mike Trout's Contract Alters Bryce Harper & Manny Machado
With 1,000 games under his belt, Mike Trout is beginning to make a serious case for baseball’s GOAT conversation. Lost on an Angels’ team that hasn’t been able to push through to the postseason with any regularity of late, the numbers for Trout are eye-popping across the board.
The 26-year-old is averaging 182 hits, 35 doubles, 36 home runs, 100 RBIs, 30 stolen bases, and a .989 OPS in 7+ seasons. He’s had 4 seasons with a batting average north of .300, and is currently carrying a .332 average, league leading .471 on base percentage, and league leading 1.155 OPS - a ridiculous split for nearly July.
While much has been made of the pending free agency for Nationals OF Bryce Harper and Orioles SS Manny Machado, it would behoove both of these players to look in Trout’s direction when contemplating their next financial move. Many eyebrows rose when Mike Trout agreed to a 6 year, $144.5M contract back in March of 2014, a deal that bought out his entire arbitration process plus his first three years of free agency. In an era where $200M+ contracts were almost certain for the game’s elite players, a $144M contract seemed questionable for Trout given his high ceiling. But a closer look at the deal might change your impression a bit:
The Arbitration Years
Let’s begin with a look at the first three seasons, his arbitration years. His 2015 season comes with a $5.25M salary + a $5M signing bonus, or $10.25M. For reference, Cubs 3B Kris Bryant is playing out his first year of arbitration in 2018 on a $10.85M salary. Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado’s first year of arbitration came with a $5M price tag, as did Manny Machado’s, and Bryce Harper’s, who accepted a 2 year $7.5M extension in 2015 to keep that cost in check.
In year two of arbitration (2016), Trout reeled in $15.25M, compared to $11.5M for Machado, $11.75M for Arenado, and $13.625M for Harper.
Moving on to 2017, Trout’s year three of arbitration comes with a $4M pay raise, up to $19.25M. Elsewhere, Machado is reeling in $16M this year, Arenado $17.75M, and Harper a whopping $21.625M.
So doing some quick math on these years, we get to:
Trout: $44.75M
Harper: $40.25M
Arenado: $34.5M
Machado: $32.5M
The Veteran Years
But it’s the final three years of Mike Trout’s contract that become the most notable. For 2 decades now, baseball has been a league that has paid its stars exponentially higher year in and out regardless of logic or tact. Albert Pujols’ 7 year $100M extension with the Cardinals back in 2004 was nearly identical to the structure & reasoning behind the Mike Trout contract we assess here. But then the Angels poured on 10 years, and a guaranteed $240M more to a 32-year old shell of Albert Pujols in 2012. The Tigers have done the same with Miguel Cabrera, adding 8 years, & $248M guaranteed at age 33, while the Brewers tacked on 5 years, $105M guaranteed to a 32 year old Ryan Braun.
Long story short here, those days appear to be dwindling. We like to say Jason Heyward’s 8 year, $184M contract with the Cubs is the straw that broke the camel’s back, and in many cases that might be true. But it’s not an accident that the 2017-18 free agency season went the way it did. Teams refused to overbid, rush to pay, or add in additional “fluff” years for even the most coveted players. The result? Players were signed at or slightly below their calculated market values across the board this offseason, led by J.D. Martinez’s $22M AAV contract with the Red Sox.
Per his current contract, Mike Trout will earn $99.75M over the next three seasons, more than any player is set to make across 2018-2020 (Kershaw, $98M if he opts-in). In other words, not only did Mike Trout’s deal pay him top dollar across his arbitration range, it appears to also be paying him top dollar across his first three years of veteran status as well - a nearly perfect contract for the game’s best player. Furthermore - and maybe the most important point here, is that Trout’s contract will expire after the 2020 season, when he’ll be just 29 years old. Getting yourself to a second major contract before the age of 30 is becoming vital across all of the major American sports, as career durations shorten, and rookie wages tighten.
Harper & Machado Going Forward
Much has been made about the exciting free agency that players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will bring us this winter. And numbers like $400M have been thrown around joyously across various mediums. But in an age of baseball where owners appear poised not to overpay, and elite players are enforcing player options (opt-outs) across all of their veteran contracts, $400M may be nothing more than a marketing buzzword.
The last eye-popping contract to hit the board was Giancarlo Stanton’s 13 year, $325 million deal with the Marlins back in 2015. But a quick glance shows that Stanton can opt-out of the deal after 6 years (2020) and “just” $107M (for reference this contract also bought out Stanton’s arbitration years at just $30M). In other words, contract numbers are beginning to not be what they seem in today’s baseball - and it’s a positive step for both teams and players.
As noted above, the age factor should be just as important to Harper & Machado as the dollar figures. Manny Machado will turn 26 in a few weeks. Harper won’t be 26 until the middle of October, but both should be very conscious of how their new contracts - wherever signed - are structured in 4 years.
Generally speaking, having analyzed contracts for a decade now, I’ve nearly always pushed for short and sweet with structure - allowing for cash upfront, and control at the end. But in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s case, a more plausible (and likely) contract structure should be a more strict version of Giancarlo Stanton’s. It makes sense for both to sign a hypothetical 10 year contract, but more importantly, both should be seeking multiple player options built in, the first to come in 4 years, at their 30 year age mark. In saying this, it will be extremely difficult for these players to receive top dollar in a 4 year span.
Knowing what we know about Mike Trout’s next 3 years ($99.75M), and the fact that Trout’s on-field production has been markedly better and more consistent, will teams really shell out $135M+ over a 4-year span to lock in Bryce Harper or Manny Machado? Recent free agencies plus a push to reduce luxury tax bills across the league say no. In fact, it seems reasonable to assume that neither of these players will even garner $30M per year over that first 4 year span, putting them well behind Trout in this regard.
So while the buzz continues to build (even though Harper’s numbers continue to drop), for a wild MLB offseason with huge paydays, we’re here to slow things down a bit and suggest that the details may be a little underwhelming when push comes to shove. Anyone still craving jaw-dropping, ridiculously overpaid players though, simply need to click on the NBA portion of this website.
CATEGORIES
- NBA 99
- NFL 70
- GOLF 54
- NWSL 45
- MLB 26
- NHL 1
AUTHORS
- Michael Ginnitti NFL, MLB
- Keith Smith NBA
- Scott Allen Contributor
- Taylor Vincent NWSL
NWSL End of Season Award Guesses
Taylor Vincent gives her NWSL end of season award guesses for MVP, Midfielder of the Year, Defender of the Year, Goalkeeper of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year.
A Financial Recap of the NFL Trade Deadline
The November 5th trade deadline has come and gone, but not without a few eye-raising moves across the league. Spotrac dives into every official trade over the course of the last month, offering up the full details, updated player contracts, and financial ramifications for each.
The Complicated Case of NBA Bonuses, Taxes and Aprons
Taking a look at the complicated case of NBA bonuses, taxes and aprons with current scenarios around the league.
Predicting a Mets Free Agency Sans Juan Soto
The Mets have 12 players set to hit the open market, and are squarely in the Juan Soto blockbuster conversation this winter. But if not Soto, how can the Mets allocate $550M elsewhere? READ MORE
Initial 2025 Cap Space and Spending Power Projections
An early look at the 2025 cap space and spending power projections.
TRENDING PLAYERS
- 1 Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
- 2 Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
- 3 Juan Soto (RF, NYY)
- 4 Ben Simmons (PG, BKN)
- 5 Dan Jennings (RP, NYY)
TRENDING PAGES
- 1 NFL Free Agents
- 2 NBA Trade Machine
- 3 MLB Free Agents
- 4 NFL Transactions
- 5 MLB Cap Tracker