The Toronto Blue Jays locked in MLB's biggest pending free agent Monday, extended 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14 year, $500M contract. The deal begins in 2026, runs through 2039, carries a full no trade clause, and does not contain any deferred compensation.

It's the 3rd largest total value contract in MLB history behind only Juan Soto ($765M) and Shohei Ohtani ($700M). It's second when accounting for present day value. In terms of Toronto, this deal is by far the largest the franchise has ever handed out.

Largest Blue Jays Contracts All-Time
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., $500M
2. George Springer, $150M
3. José Berríos, $131M
4. Vernon Wells, $126M
5. Kevin Gausman, $110M

The 26-year-old will now carry a $35.7 APY/CBT salary starting next year which ranks 7th in the league, and 4th among position players.

Opening Week of the 2025 MLB season has also become an "internal-extension" season for many teams, and this year has been no exception. Spotrac breaks down some of the greatest hits from recently announced MLB extensions across the league.

Boston Locks in SP Garrett Crochet

26-year old Crochet was acquired from Chicago (AL) this past December in exchange for 4 prospects. Boston avoided arbitration with a $3.8M salary for the upcoming season, then extended him out another 6 years, $170M guaranteed this week. The extension starts in 2026 and includes a $4M signing bonus, a chance to opt-out after 2030, and a club option in 2032 that only becomes available if he spends 120+ days on the IL due to a left arm injury.

Crochet would have arbitration eligible for a final time in 2026, so this new contract buys out his final year of team control, and guarantees at least 4 years of his free agency. The deal also includes $2M of available escalators based on Cy Young finishes, and a $2M bonus for a trade assignment.

Garrett Crochet's Full Contract Breakdown

Boston Extends 2B Kristian Campbell

The Red Sox made another splash this week, locking in 22-year-old 2B Kristian Campbell to an 8 year, $60M extension - despite just 59 MLB plate appearances. A 4th round pick back in 2023, Campbell quickly rose through the ranks and was a standout player this past spring for Boston.

The new deal replaces his $760,000 minimum salary with a $3M payout in 2025, $8M over the next 3 seasons (his Pre-Arbitration window), $13M across 2028-2030 (his Arbitration window), and $56M total through the 2032 season. From there, Boston will hold a $19M club option or $4M buyout, with another $21M option to follow thereafter.

It's a huge payday for a second baseman with almost no professional experience, easily surpassing Brandon Lowe's 6 year, $24M deal in Tampa Bay back in 2019.

Full Breakdown of Kristian Campbell's Contract

Padres Extend OF Jackson Merrill

2024 breakout star Jackson Merrill became the latest member of the Padres to cash in big, locking down a 9 year, $135M contract extension that runs through the 2035 season when including an option year. The deal can max out at $204M including escalators, while the $15M AAV is the largest for any MLB contract signed with just 1 Year of Service.

Merrill will play out 2025 on his previously signed $809,500 pre-arbitration salary, though the new deal does reportedly include a $10M signing bonus. According to early reports, Merrill will secure a $10M signing bonus ($11M total in 2026), $24M combined across his 3 arbitration-eligible seasons, then $20M in each of 2030-2034, his first 5 years of free agency. However, these final 5 salaries will escalate $1M each time Merrill reaches 500 plate appearances in a season.

Full Breakdown of Jackson Merrill's Contract

Diamondbacks Extend SP Brandon Pfaadt

After handing out $80M guaranteed to Eduardo Rodriguez last winter, and another $210M guaranteed to Corbin Burnes this past winter, Arizona continues financially backing their rotation, giving 26-year-old Pfaadt a 5 year, $45M contract through the 2030 season. The deal begins in 2026 and includes a $2M signing bonus, a $21M club option in 2031, and a mutual option if necessary in 2032.

Pfaadt's deal buys out a final pre-arbitration season (2026) all 3 arbitration-eligible seasons (2027-29) at $24M combined, and at least 1 year of free agency at $15M.

Fellow starting pitchers Zac Gallen & Merrill Kelly are pending free agents this coming winter.

Full Breakdown of Brandon Pfaadt's Contract

Mariners Extend C Cal Raleigh

After avoiding arbitration ($5.6M) for the first time this past January, Raleigh and the Mariners instead agreed on a new 6 year, $105M contract that begins immediately, running through the 2030 season. The 28-year-old will now make $11M in 2025, $34M through his 3-year arbitration window, with another $71M to be earned across three years of bought-out free agency.

At $17.5M per year, Raleigh immediately becomes the 3rd highest average paid catcher in baseball.

Full Breakdown of Cal Raleigh's Contract

Guardians Extend SP Tanner Bibee

Cleveland is always good for at least one below-market-value extension an offseason, and they held court in extending Bibee to a 5 year, $48M contract this March. The new deal begins immediately (replacing a pre-arbitration salary), and includes $5M in 2025, $21M combined across his 3-year arbitration window, and $21M in what would have been his first year of free agency in 2029. There's a $21M club option set for 2030, and escalators for the final 2 years of the deal based on Cy Young finishes.

Full Breakdown of Tanner Bibee's Contract

Diamondbacks Extend RP Justin Martinez

Arizona remained one of the most active teams in all of baseball this winter, locking in 23-year-old reliever Justin Martinez to a 5 year, $18M contract that begins in 2025, runs through 2029, and holds 2 additional club options through 2031. The deal buys out 5 years of team control, paying him $5.5M over his next two (pre-arbitration) seasons, and $12.5M combined across what would have been his 3 arbitration-eligible campaigns. Club Options of $7M and $9M respectively would represent his first years of free agency, giving Arizona control prior to his age-28 season.

Full Breakdown of Justin Martinez' Contract

Blue Jays Extend C Alejandro Kirk

Despite so much attention on Vlad Jr.'s contract status in Toronto, it's Kirk who locks in the late offseason extension with the Blue Jays. The 26-year-old gets a 5 year, $58M contract that begins in 2026, running through the 2031 season. He'll remain on his $4.5M arbitration-avoided salary for 2025, while reeling in a $6M signing bonus as part of the new contract. The $11.6M AAV makes Kirk the 6th highest average paid catcher in baseball next season at the time of this piece.

Full Breakdown of Alejandro Kirk's Contract

Royals Extend SP Cole Ragans

On the heels of a 32-start, 223 strikeout, 5 WAR campaign in 2024, Cole Ragans secured a 3 year, $13.25M contract extension in Kansas City that buys out his final year of pre-arbitration and the first two seasons of arbitration-eligibility. The 27-year-old will earn $1.25M in 2025, then at least $12M across 2026-2027, but he'll revert back to arbitration in 2028 for a final time before free agency.

Full Breakdown of Cole Ragan's Contract

Athletics Extend OF Lawrence Butler

The A's continued their new-found spending habit, locking in 24-year-old Butler to a 7 year, $65M contract that begins immediately and runs through the 2031 season. The deal buys out 5 years of team control, paying him $8.5M over his final two pre-arbitration seasons, and a combined $23M across what would have been his arbitration eligibility. Butler will then earn $30M in 2030/2031 combined, and there's a $20M club option in place for 2032 that can be escalated as much as $6M over the course of the contract.

Full Breakdown of Lawrence Butler's Contract

Diamondbacks Extend SS Geraldo Perdomo

Arizona locked in their starting shortstop to a 4 year, $45M contract extension just as camp broke this February, buying out the final two years of arbitration eligibility ($13M combined) and at least 2 years of free agency ($24M combined). There's a $15M club option in 2030, and escalators available for the final three years of the deal based on MVP vote finishes.
The 25-year-old carries a $10.3M market valuation in our system, but secures at least $11.25M per year guaranteed per this extension.

Full Breakdown of Geraldo Perdomo's Extension

Under the new CBA announced last August, there were two changes which impacted the 2025 incoming rookie class for the NWSL. First, the collegiate draft was eliminated, and, second, all contracts became guaranteed. The latter impacts the rookie class because instead of signing  shorter, non-guaranteed contracts — which would allow teams to waive said players any time ahead of the October roster freeze — a large chunk of the rookies have been signed to short-term contracts. 

Of the 56 players drafted in 2024, 25% of the players drafted didn’t end up signing with the NWSL team that drafted them. Another quarter of the draftees were signed to contracts of at least three years, while the largest percentage of draftees were signed to a one year contract with an option year for 2025.

Comparatively, in 2025 there have been 37 players signed for at least a full season, with an additional 16 signed to short-term contracts. The 16 rookie short-term contracts went to 11 teams across the league with Gotham, Kansas City, and Orlando being the only teams without one. Washington has the most with three. 

One of the biggest shifts when you look at length of contract between 2024 and 2025 is the shift inside of the shorter contracts between one year with options and just the singular one year contract. If you take the 1 year contracts out of the picture, 2025’s distribution of contract length looks very gaussian compared to the randomness of the 2024 distribution. 

If you look at when the rookies were signed, more than half of the rookies were signed in the month of January, which is a shift left compared to 2024 where the draft occurred on January 12th and then almost all of the rookie signings occurred in the late-February to mid-March window.

There isn’t any consistent correlation between players signing early and having longer contracts, although the first 12 players to get under contract were on the multi-year side of contract lengths. Portland’s Caiya Hanks’s late 4+1 year contract ahead of the season start really bucked a potential trend of having longer contracts earlier in the offseason. 

The following penalties and fines were handed down by NASCAR following the race at Martinsville on Saturday.

Sammy Smith: Docked 50 points + Fined $25,000

Taylor Gray: Fined $5,000 for "infield care center conduct"

Jeb Burton: Fined $5,000 for "infield care center conduct"

The NBA handed out suspensions for players of the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves following the on-court altercation during the Detroit-Minnesota game Wednesday night. 

Detroit Pistons

Isaiah Stewart: 2 game suspension; loss of pay $206,897
Ron Holland: 1 game suspension; loss of pay $47,386
Marcus Sasser: 1 game suspension; loss of pay $15,834

Minnesota Timberwolves

Naz Reid: 1 game suspension; loss of pay$80,382
Donte DiVincenzo: 1 game suspension; loss of pay$65,776

Calculations

• For a 1 game suspension (if first of the season), players lose 1/174 of their pay
• For a mutli-game suspension under 20 games, players lose 1/145 of their pay
• Teams will receive a tax variance off of each player's luxury tax salary equivalent to 1/2 of the amount loss due to suspension.

Min Woo Lee wins the Texas Children's Houston Open. Woo Lee earns $1.71 million million bringing his 2025 on-course earnings to $2.66 million and his career earnings to $8.77 million. 

Texas Children's Houston Open Top 10 Payouts

In tonight's regular-season matchup against Houston, Gotham captain Tierna Davidson went down late in the first half with a non-contact injury to her left knee. After evaulation by medical staff, she went off the pitch and straight into the locker room. A team spokesperson confirmed she will be fully evaluated when the club returns to New Jersey. After the match, Davidson could be seen on the pitch with a leg brace fully immobilizing her left knee. 

Prior to tonight's injury, Davidson had been called-up to the USWNT for the upcoming April friendlies against Brazil on April 5th/8th.

At this point in the NBA calendar, there isn’t a lot of roster movement. The trade deadline is nearly two months behind us. Buyout season more or less wraps up at the beginning of March. Even the deadline to sign players to two-way contracts was a month ago (more on that in a bit!).

But there are some roster situations to be aware of around the NBA. Some teams have open roster spots, while others have two-way players who are out of NBA eligibility. That means there are some moves to come around the league.

A couple of reminders on rules for two-way players:

• Two-Way players are limited to 50 NBA games on the active list. It’s important to note that this is games active, not games played. A couple of players have hit their limit, while others are closing in.
• Two-Way players are not eligible to play in the postseason. That includes both the playoffs and the Play-In Tournament. This is true even if they have NBA eligibility remaining on their two-way deal. When the NBA regular season ends, the season ends for a player on a two-way contract.
• If a team converts or signs a two-way at this point in the season, they can’t replace them. The deadline for that was on March 4. That means leaving an open two-way spot for the final couple of weeks of the regular season. Not a huge deal, but something some teams may not want to deal with.

It’s rare for a postseason team to leave a roster spot open to end the season. April 13, or the final day of the regular season, is the last day to sign a player to a contract. We’ll call out those situations here too.

With all of that said, here are the teams and players to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks as the NBA regular season comes to an end.

Boston Celtics

Analysis: Boston regularly carries an open roster deep into the season. The Celtics also always fill that spot. At this point, keep an eye on a potential two-way callup. Given that Miles Norris received a two-year two-way deal, it’s probably between J.D Davison and Drew Peterson.

Davison has been with the team longer, but Peterson is a wing. With the late-season emergence of Baylor Scheierman and the buyout addition of Torrey Craig, that should give Boston enough wing depth. We’ll give the nod to Davison, simply because the Celtics won’t want to be caught without guard depth.

Brooklyn Nets

Analysis: The Nets aren’t headed to the postseason. Heck, by the time you read this, they might even be officially eliminated. But they do have an open roster spot. Maybe Brooklyn just lets that ride, but they might want to take a look at a player or two down the stretch. This could be a 10 Day contract situation, followed by a rest-of-season signing.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis: The Cavs are in the same situation as the Celtics. They’re likely to fill their final roster spot for depth purposes. Nae’Qwan Tomlin has a two-year two-way deal, so we’ll take him out of the mix. That leaves Emoni Bates and Luke Travers.

Bates is younger, has more upside and more history with Cleveland. But he’s been extremely inefficient in the G League this season. Travers has had a nice all-around season. We’re betting on Travers to get converted. There’s also a decent chance the Cavaliers sign a veteran, who might be more ready in a “break glass in case of emergency” situation in the playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks

Analysis: This one is really interesting. Dallas is in a fight for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. They’ve also exhausted the NBA eligibility for forward Kessler Edwards. In addition, guard Brandon Williams only has a couple of NBA games left himself.

On top of all of that, Dallas has an open roster spot, but they can’t fill it until April 10. That’s because the Mavs are just $51,148 under their first-apron hard cap. A prorated veteran minimum deal is worth more than that until we get to April 10. So, for two more weeks, Dallas will have to run shorthanded.

As of April 10, it’s likely the Mavericks will convert/sign one of Edwards or Williams. With Dallas getting increasingly healthier in the frontcourt and less healthy in the backcourt, it’s likely Williams will get the nod. As it stands, he’s the Mavs second-best on-ball creator behind Spencer Dinwiddie. They’ll want Williams for the Play-In Tournament.

One last note for Dallas: They could delay signing either Edwards or Williams and then sign both with two days left in the season. That would mean moving on from a player. In that case, Dante Exum could be waived, as he’s on an expiring contract and out for the season with an injury.

Golden State Warriors

Analysis: The Warriors now have enough room under their first-apron hard cap to sign a player to a rest-of-season deal. Given Golden State is ticketed for the postseason (and probably the playoffs), they’re likely to fill that spot. It’ll mean a bit more of a tax bill, but that’s not the end of the world.

Braxton Key is on a two-way deal and has played well for the Santa Cruz Warriors in the G League. There’s a chance he could be the guy. Golden State could use some additional forward depth at the end of the bench. This could also be a veteran signing right at the very end of the season too.

Los Angeles Lakers

Analysis: The Lakers have a full roster, but they have two regular rotation players on two-way deals. As covered above, they’re going to want at least one of those players for the playoffs. That means a move is very likely coming for Los Angeles.

Jordan Goodwin is now out of NBA eligibility on his two-way deal. He’s become a rotation player in the Lakers backcourt. He’s going to be signed or converted to a standard contract. The guess here is that happens at the expense of Cam Reddish, who was brought back after the voided traded with Charlotte, but hasn’t played much since.

(NOTE: Goodwin is reportedly being signed to a two-year deal, with Reddish being waived.)

The other spot is far more interesting. Trey Jemison III has been a solid backup center behind Jaxson Hayes. However, the Lakers have him on a two-year two-way deal. That means that Jemison is already in the mix for next season, even if he’s not eligible for the playoffs. Also, adding Jemison means moving on from another player, which would likely be Alex Len or Markieff Morris.

In addition, some Lakers fans have clamored for Christian Koloko to also be converted. Koloko has played ahead of both Len and Morris in games where he’s been active.

Mark down Goodwin as a guarantee to be converted/signed to a standard deal. And don’t be surprised if one of the two bigs is converted/signed too, with Len being the most likely candidate to be waived to create the roster spot.

New Orleans Pelicans

Analysis: The Pelicans are in the same situation as the Brooklyn Nets. They’re eliminated from the postseason picture, but they do have an open roster spot. There isn’t a clear two-way conversion for New Orleans either, as Keion Brooks Jr. and Jamal Cain haven’t been clear rotation guys. Being somewhat tight to the tax line means the Pelicans may just let this one ride.

New York Knicks

Analysis: The Knicks are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot, possibly by the time you read this. They’ve also got an open roster spot. That spot is currently occupied on P.J. Tucker on a second 10 Day deal. When that deal is up, New York has to either sign Tucker for the rest of the season, or they need to let him walk.

Without a two-way player as a lock to be converted, look for Tucker to sign a rest-of-season deal to provide some emergency frontcourt depth for the playoff run.

Philadelphia 76ers

Analysis: This is another non-postseason situation. But the challenge for the Sixers is that two-way player Jeff Dowtin is almost out of NBA eligibility. Philadelphia doesn’t have an open roster spot and they have a slew of injuries. That makes this an interesting situation to watch.

It sounds a little crazy, but don’t be shocked if Kyle Lowry is waived to create a roster spot for Dowtin. Lowry is on an expiring contract and hasn’t played since February 9. Given his season (and possibly career) is over, the 76ers may prefer to have Dowtin in that spot. If so, Dowtin will probably get a deal that carries over to next season with a team option or partial/non-guaranteed year.

Phoenix Suns

Analysis: The Suns are fighting for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. They are hopefully and optimistic that they can win in the PIT and advance to the playoffs too.

The challenge? Collin Gillespie, who has been the team’s starting for a couple of weeks now, is on a two-way deal. That means he can’t play in the postseason unless he’s converted.

The additional challenge? Phoenix doesn’t have an open roster spot. Creating one isn’t hard, as Damion Lee and Monte Morris haven’t been rotation players for the Suns for a long time now.

Look for Phoenix to waive either Lee or Morris and to sign Gillespie to a two-year minimum deal. That will put Gillespie in line to continue to start in the postseason, while putting him in position to be on next year’s roster too.

Sacramento Kings

Analysis: Like the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks, the Kings are battling for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. Sacramento currently has a full roster, but that last spot is filled by Terry Taylor on a 10 Day deal.

Taylor could stick on a second 10 Day deal, which would allow Sacramento to put off signing someone until closer to the end of the season. At that point, Taylor could get a rest-of-season contract, or a two-way player could be brought up. Those candidates are Isaiah Crawford or Mason Jones, as Isaac Jones was already signed to a two-year minimum deal recently.

Toronto Raptors

Analysis: Toronto is another team on the verge of being officially eliminated from playoff contention, but sitting on an open roster spot…kind of. That opening is currently filled by Cole Swider on a 10 Day contract, after Collin Castleton recently finished a pair of 10 Day deals.

The Raptors could run out the season with an open spot after this 10 Day deal for Swider. Or maybe they sign Castleton, who they loved, to a rest-of-season deal. Maybe Swider impresses and snags a contract. The other option is to convert A.J. Lawson, who has played a lot for Toronto while on his two-way contract.

Washington Wizards

Analysis: We’re only including this because Tristan Vukcevic has become a regular rotation guy for Washington while on his two-way contract. He’s got enough NBA eligibility left to finish out the season, so that’s not an issue.

However, the Wizards could sign Vukcevic to a standard contract, if they could get him on a team-friendly deal. That would mean moving on from someone, but the contracts for both Anthony Gill and Colby Jones are non-guaranteed for next season. We don’t necessarily expect a move here, but Vukcevic has been intriguing enough that it’s worth noting the possibility.

With the 2025 MLB Opening Day upon us, here is the top spending teams by cash over the last three years (2022-2024, based on the current CBA dates), including an estimate of where each team's current cash spending is heading into the 2025 season.

Restricted Free Agency is the last bastion of old-school “teams hold all the power” contract status in the NBA. In a league that has become increasingly player-friendly in terms of players getting paid, teams can still wield the restricted hammer over players. Sure, some restricted free agents get paid, but other times players languish on the market until they have no choice but to re-sign with their teams.

We’re going to look at what some former first-round picks might be looking at in restricted free agency this summer. To better understand that, we’re going to look back at the recent history of restricted free agency.

Over the last five offseasons from 2020 through 2024, a total of 26 former first-round picks have reached restricted free agency. That’s an average of just over five players per offseason.

This offseason, we have a whopping 10 former first-round picks who are pending restricted free agents.

Below are the former first-round picks who reached restricted free agency over the last five years and what ultimately happened with those players and their next contract.

• 2020: Malik Beasley – Minnesota Timberwolves – re-signed for four years, $60 million
• 2020: Juancho Hernangomez – Minnesota Timberwolves – re-signed for three years, $21 million
• 2020: Brandon Ingram – New Orleans Pelicans – re-signed for five years, $158 million
• 2020: Jako Poeltl – San Antonio Spurs – re-signed for three years, $27 million
• 2020: Dario Saric – Phoenix Suns – re-signed for three years, $27 million
• 2020: Denzel Valentine – Chicago Bulls – re-signed for one year, $4.6 million (signed Qualifying Offer)
• 2021: Lonzo Ball – Chicago Bulls – signed-and-traded for four years, $85 million
• 2021: John Collins – Atlanta Hawks – re-signed for five years, $125 million
• 2021: Josh Hart – New Orleans Pelicans – re-signed for three years, $38 million
• 2021: Lauri Markkanen – Cleveland Cavaliers – signed-and-traded for four years, $67 million
• 2022: Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns – matched offer sheet for four years, $133 million
• 2022: Marvin Bagley III – Detroit Pistons – re-signed for three years, $37 million
• 2022: Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets – Unsigned (suspended for season)
• 2022: Collin Sexton – Utah Jazz – signed-and-traded for four years, $72 million
• 2022: Anfernee Simons – Portland Trail Blazers – re-signed for four years, $100 million
• 2023: Rui Hachimura – Los Angeles Lakers – re-signed for three years, $51 million
• 2023: Cameron Johnson – Brooklyn Nets – re-signed for four years, $108 million
• 2023: Matisse Thybulle – Portland Trail Blazers – matched offer sheet for three years, $33 million
• 2023: P.J. Washington – Charlotte Hornets – re-signed for three years, $48 million
• 2023: Coby White – Chicago Bulls – re-signed for three years, $40 million
• 2023: Grant Williams – Dallas Mavericks – signed-and-traded for 4 years, $54 million
• 2024 Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers – re-signed for five years, $204 million
• 2024: Isaac Okoro – Cleveland Cavaliers – re-signed for three years, $38 million
• 2024: Immanuel Quickley – Toronto Raptors – re-signed for five years, $175 million
• 2024: Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers – re-signed for four years, $60 million
• 2024: Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls – re-signed for five years, $90 million

Here’s the breakdown:

• Re-signed on a max deal: Three players (one matched offer sheet)
• Re-signed for less than max: 17 players (one matched offer sheet)
• Re-signed on qualifying offer: One player
• Changed teams via sign-and-trade: Four players
• Unsigned: One player

Out of 26 former first-round picks to reach restricted free agency, all but five returned to their incumbent team the next season. Only three got max contracts. And only two total players garnered offer sheets.

Within that breakdown, there’s a little context needed.

Brandon Ingram was coming off a serious, career-threatening blood clot condition before re-signing with the Pelicans. Tyrese Maxey and the Sixers agreed to delay his re-signing to allow Philadelphia to create the most cap space possible.

Of the players to change teams, all four did so via sign-and-trade. Within that group of four, both Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton had to wait until deep into free agency to get their new deals via sign-and-trade situations.

And, just in case you think the “just sign the qualifying offer and hit unrestricted free agency in the next summer” is a viable path, we’ve seen one player go that route. And, sadly, Denzel Valentine was out of the league after only one more season. Teams have increasingly declined to tender a qualifying offer as opposed to allowing a player to sign and become an unrestricted free agent a year later.

To recap: A grand total of three players got max contracts, and one was coming off injury concerns, one was pre-arranged and one took an offer sheet to get his max deal.

Now, to be fair, several other players got really nice contracts. John Collins, Immanuel Quickley, Cameron Johnson and Anfernee Simons all reached the $100 million marker, while Patrick Williams came up just short of that amount.

Of that group, the jury is still somewhat out on Quickley’s deal (Reminder: Quickley ranks 20th in terms of AAV among NBA point guards for the 2024-25 season. Meaning: It’s a better deal than you think it is.), but the rest are all largely fine. Collins has proven to be a bit overpaid, but Johnson and Simons have delivered solid value on their deals.

Several other players got a contract in range of the Non-Taxpayer MLE or less. To be fair again, only a couple of players got truly got squeezed and outplayed their deals. Jakob Poeltl and Josh Hart both garnered significantly bigger deals on their third contracts. That’s where Coby White seems headed too.

For everyone else, they got paid somewhere between fair and a slight overpay. And a handful of others (Juancho Hernangomez, Dario Saric, Marvin Bagley III) all got bigger deals than they should have.

One other interesting note: Of the 26 former first-round picks to hit restricted free agency since 2020, 12 of them were traded while on the deal they were re-signed to (excluding sign-and-traded players, since the trade was part of the original transaction). Can we all that “re-signers remorse”?

While restricted free agency has been tough on players, it’s largely worked out ok for them. Only three players seem to have gotten truly squeezed as restricted free agents. Sure, only a few got max deals, but the vast majority of restricted free agents still came out with a pretty nice payday.

But…where players are truly impacted is with their ability to change teams. Only four total players changed teams (Again: all via sign-and-trade, in which the incumbent team has some measure of control), and only two others even signed offer sheets. That’s roughly a 15% change rate.

The ability to change teams has been extremely limited. And that’s some history we can expect to repeat itself this offseason.

There are 10 former first-round picks who are pending restricted free agents for the 2025 offseason. By original draft slot, these are the 10 pending RFAs and their qualifying offers:

• Josh Giddey: Chicago Bulls – $11.1 million qualifying offer
• Jonthan Kuminga: Golden State Warriors – $10.2 million qualifying offer
• Davion Mitchell: Miami Heat – $7.9 million qualifying offer*
• Ziaire Williams: Brooklyn Nets – $7.9 million qualifying offer
• Tre Mann: Charlotte Hornets – $6.9 million qualifying offer
• Isaiah Jackson: Indiana Pacers – $6.4 million qualifying offer
• Quentin Grimes: Philadelphia 76ers – $6.3 million qualifying offer*
• Cam Thomas: Brooklyn Nets – $5.9 million qualifying offer
• Day’Ron Sharpe: Brooklyn Nets – $5.9 million qualifying offer
• Santi Aldama: Memphis Grizzlies – $5.9 million qualifying offer

*Both Davion Mitchell and Quentin Grimes could still reach Starter Criteria. If so, that would see Mitchell’s and Grimes’ qualifying offers come in at $8.7 million.

Looking at this group, we can pretty confidently take Ziaire Williams, Tre Mann and Isaiah Jackson out of the mix. If any of those three players receive their qualifying offer, they’d do well to simply sign it. Mann and Jackson are coming off season-ending injuries, while Williams simply hasn’t produced at a level worth $7.9 million.

That leaves seven players in the balance. Of the remaining seven players, Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe are in a somewhat weird spot. They both play for the Brooklyn Nets, who happen to be the only team that is projected to have cap space this summer. So, their situation won’t likely be driven by offer sheets, since the most a team could offer them would be the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Now we’re down to five players. And those five all have pretty interesting situations.

Josh Giddey and Jonathan Kuminga both have enough prospect shine left on them to make them “future investment” candidates. Quentin Grimes has certainly shown enough with Philadelphia that we’ll put him in the same category.

Davion Mitchell and Santi Aldama are both high-end rotation players, but haven’t established themselves as starters yet.

Now, as we referenced above, market factors heavily influence restricted free agency. In this case, only one team having cap space is going to make it really tough on the 2025 RFA group.

Could the Nets throw a big offer sheet at Giddey, Kuminga or Grimes? Sure. All of them are young enough and talented enough to go that route. 

It's worth pausing here to note that Sean Marks has played in restricted free agency when he’s had cap space before. The Nets gave offer sheets to Allen Crabbe, Tyler Johnson and Otto Porter Jr. several years ago. All three offer sheets were matched, but Marks isn’t afraid to force a rival team to pay up to keep their players.

In the case of Kuminga and Grimes, both of their incumbent teams (Warriors and 76ers, respectively) are facing luxury tax and apron issues. If Brooklyn gave either Kuminga or Grimes anything approaching a max offer sheet (projected starting salary of $38.7 million in 2025-26), their current teams might blink at matching.

Giddey is in a bit of a different spot. He’s kind of, sort of as close to the centerpiece of the Bulls young core as they have. Giddey has been solid all season, but since the calendar flipped to 2025, he’s gone to a different level. In 32 games since January 1, Giddey has averaged 15.4 points on 48/44/82 shooing splits, 8.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.4 steals per game. If you believe in that shooting, combined with the other production, that’s approaching max contract territory.

Here’s the challenge though: Giddey, Kuminga and Grimes will be 23, 23 and 25 at the start of the 2025-26 season. That’s hardly ancient, but given that the Nets are in the early stages of their rebuild, that would be a major commitment for any of these three players.

And therein lies the issue for the 2025 RFA group: The Nets are the only team that can realistically sign any of the RFAs to an offer sheet that would cause their teams to have to swallow hard while making a decision to match.

That means, as per usual, most of the 2025 RFA group is likely to re-sign with their own team. A couple could change teams via sign-and-trade, but that’s really hard to project.

As we project the next contract for each of the pending RFAs, we’re going to assume they’ll be re-signing with their current teams. We’re using a combination of history combined with updated market factors, as well as future improvement forecasts to drive these projections.

Josh Giddey

Projected Next Contract: four years, $108 million

Analysis: Considering the Bulls gave Patrick Williams $18 million a year over five years, and he’s never shown as much as Giddey has, we’re bumping Giddey’s number up. We’re also knocking a year off, as Giddey isn’t going to fetch a player option on his final season, so he’ll likely only want to lock in for four years.

Jonathan Kuminga

Projected Next Contract: four years, $100 million

Analysis: Kuminga has been less reliable than Giddey, but he’s got higher upside. Kuminga still has “primary scorer on a good team” potential. He’s also the best, and last, of the Warriors “two timelines” prospects left. This is a pretty heavy investment, but Kuminga is worth nearly as much as the more-proven Giddey, simply given the untapped upside he still has.

Davion Mitchell

Projected Next Contract: four years, $40 million

Analysis: Mitchell has been solid enough as a backup point guard. When you adjust for his ability to also start, Mitchell’s value bumps just shy of the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. The Heat don’t have a lot of point guard depth and Miami values locking players up on long-term team-friendly deals when they can.

Ziaire Williams

Projected Next Contract: Veteran Minimum

Analysis: Williams has played better with Nets, but he’s unlikely to get tendered a qualifying offer. That will make him an unrestricted free agent. From there, Williams will probably have to take a minimum deal to continue finding his way in the NBA.

Tre Mann

Projected Next Contract: two years, $11 million

Analysis: Mann has shown he can score and can be an NBA rotation player. Getting hurt this year really killed his chances at getting a bigger deal. Had he stayed healthy, he might have been looking at something in the range of $10-15 million AAV. As it stands, he’s likely to be more in the range of the Taxpayer MLE, if even that. Charlotte likely won’t issue the combo guard the qualifying offer. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Mann had to take a minimum deal and work his way back from there.

Isaiah Jackson

Projected Next Contract: Veteran Minimum

Analysis: Jackson will be coming of a torn Achilles. If he had stayed healthy, there was a good chance Jackson would have landed a deal around $8-10 million AAV. Now, he’ll likely have to take a minimum deal to prove he’s healthy. Also, don’t expect Indiana to tender a qualifying offer to Jackson. If they do, he’d be smart to sign it immediately.

Quentin Grimes

Projected Next Contract: four years, $100 million

This one is based on potential, need and fit with the 76ers. Because of their cap/tax/apron situation, it’s going to be hard for Philadelphia to add outside talent for the next few years. That means it’s imperative to keep a guy like Grimes. $25 million AAV might seem like a lot, but Grimes has shown he can do more than just being a 3&D guy. He should also be a really solid fit with Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain in a three-guard rotation for the Sixers moving forward.

Cam Thomas

Projected Next Contract: three years, $45 million

Analysis: Thomas can score. He’s a better playmaker than most realize. The Nets aren’t in a position to let young talent walk out the door, but Brooklyn can’t start overpaying guys yet either. Unless there’s a team that falls in love and wants to work a sign-and-trade deal for Thomas, expect Brooklyn to get him back on a solid value contract. Think what Coby White signed for, plus a bit to represent the new cap environment. From there, it’s up to Thomas to outplay the deal, much like White has.

Day’Ron Sharpe

Projected Next Contract: three years, $30 million

Analysis: Sharpe is essentially the big man equivalent of teammate Cam Thomas. The Nets can’t just let him walk, but bigs don’t generally get paid as much as scoring wings/guards do. And Brooklyn already has Nic Claxton and Noah Clowney under contract too. That’ll push Sharpe’s deal down a bit, but he should still get a nice payday.

Santi Aldama

Projected Next Contract: four years, $60 million

Analysis: This is essentially the equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Aldama has improved every year he’s been in the league, and that’s maintained as his role has grown. The Grizzlies cap situation is getting a bit tight, especially when you factor in Jaren Jackson Jr. is due a new starting in 2026-27. This could be one where another team works a sign-and-trade, that way Memphis can keep their books in order, but doesn’t lose Aldama for nothing. Think the equivalent to Grant Williams leaving the Boston Celtics for the Dallas Mavericks a few years back.