After earlier making a trade for Simone Fontecchio from the Utah Jazz, the Detroit Pistons continued the process of reshaping the roster. This time, the Pistons sent Monte Morris to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have been looking for additional backcourt depth.

Here are the particulars:

Minnesota Timberwolves acquire: Monte Morris

Detroit Pistons acquire: Troy Brown Jr., Shake Milton, 2030 Minnesota Timberwolves second-round pick

(Note: Detroit will need to waive or trade another player to be in roster compliance. That additional transaction was not known at the time of this writing.)

Let’s dive in!

Minnesota Timberwolves

Incoming salary: $9.8 million in 2023-24

• Monte Morris (PG, one year, $9.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $9 million in 2023-24

• Troy Brown Jr. (SF/SG, two years, $8.0 million, team option for 2024-25), Shake Milton (PG/SG, two years, $10 million, team option for 2024-25)

The Timberwolves entered trade deadline eve in a four-way tie atop the Western Conference. That’s pretty rarified air for Minnesota. And they got there despite a pretty glaring hole in their rotation at backup point guard.

Mike Conley is having an outstanding and efficient season for the Wolves. When he’s on the court, Minnesota is +9.0 in offensive rating compared to when he’s off the court. Now, offensive rating isn’t an individual stat, but it does paint a picture that matches the eye test: The Timberwolves offense gets really messy whenever Conley isn’t on the floor.

That made it a major goal to find a quality backup point guard. Minnesota front office leader Tim Connelly did so by returning to a familiar face in Morris. Connelly originally drafted Morris in the second round of the 2017 NBA Draft.

We can basically disregard Morris’ stats for this season, as he’s only recently returned from injury for the Pistons to play just six games. If we focus on his previous seasons with the Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets, we see one of the very best backup point guards in the NBA. And Morris is a guy who can perform well as a fill-in starter too.

With the Wizards last season, Morris put up 10.3 points and 5.3 assists. In his last year in Denver, Morris started for Jamal Murray (who was out after a torn ACL) and he averaged 12.6 points and 4.4 assists. The veteran guard also never turns the ball over. Seriously. His assist/turnover ratio is so stark, that it’s earned Morris the nickname “Count of Monte Assist/TO”.

Now, when Conley has to sit, whether it’s for in-game rest or to take a night off, Chris Finch can turn the offense over to the more-than-capable Morris. Outside of maybe finding one more wing with some size, Minnesota’s playoff rotation is as deep and solid as there is in the entire league.

On the cap sheet, the Timberwolves edged ever closer to the tax like. They’ll be about $1.5 million under the tax, but they also have two open roster spots. One of those spots will have to filled within 14 days. Look for the Wolves to do what they can to stay under the tax line, which might mean another trade or some signing gymnastics with 10-day deals and the like.

The reason dodging the tax this season is important is that Minnesota already has over $165 million committed to just five players (Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns) for next season. That’s against a projected tax line of just over $171 million, a first apron of $178.6 million and a second apron of $189.5 million.

When you factor in the team’s smaller guaranteed salaries and filling out the roster, the Timberwolves project to be over the first apron. And that’s before you account for the potential re-signing of Conley and/or Morris. And if the Wolves project to be a multi-year luxury tax team, keeping the repeater clock at bay for a year makes it imperative to stay under the tax this season.

But those are tomorrow’s problems. Today, Minnesota shored up a major weak spot and further solidified themselves as an 2024 NBA Finals contender. That’s great work at a fairly minimal cost.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $9 million in 2023-24

• Troy Brown Jr. (SF/SG, two years, $8.0 million, team option for 2024-25), Shake Milton (PG/SG, two years, $10 million, team option for 2024-25)

Outgoing salary: $9.8 million in 2023-24

• Monte Morris (PG, one year, $9.8 million)

In Detroit they can say “Monte, we hardly knew ye!”. Morris played just six games for the Pistons after he was acquired in a salary-clearing move from the Washington Wizards this past summer.

So, the Pistons aren’t really losing much here. Yes, they gave up a 2027 second-round pick to get Morris in the first place, but they made that back here. That’s basically a wash.

On the court, we’ll see what Milton and Brown can do for Detroit. Both could play roles on a Pistons team that is rapidly reshaping itself. Milton could plug right into Morris’ role in the backup point guard rotation behind Cade Cunningham. Milton has historically been a pretty good shooter and scorer, even if he’s struggled with his shot this season.

Brown has bounced around a lot in his six-year NBA career. The Pistons will be his fifth team already. But Brown is still only 24 years old. He might still have some of that late-bloomer shine left on him. He’s actually shot the ball better over the last two seasons, which is encouraging. He could get some run the rest of this year to show Detroit what he can do.

Neither Milton nor Brown should take away any minutes from players on rookie deals like Ausar Thompson and Marcus Sasser, who might be a big part of Detroit’s future. However, Monty Williams has made some curious playing time decisions this season. If nothing else, the Pistons front office can control what happens with both Milton and Brown following this season.

Milton has a $5 million team option for 2024-25, while Brown has a $4 million team option. That means this trade doesn’t do anything to impact the Pistons league-leading $46.6 million in projected cap space for this summer.

If Milton or Brown pops, their salaries are low enough that Detroit could keep them without overly hurting their cap space plans. Most likely, Milton and Brown will play out the year, and the Pistons will decline their options for next season. Detroit will then remain open to re-signing either player after they’ve used their cap space.

Finally, getting a 2030 Wolves second-rounder is a nice return for a guy who wasn’t a part of the long-term future. 2030 is so far off that Minnesota could be rebuilding their team following retirements and departures of several players, as all of their current contracts will have expired by then. If nothing else, Detroit has a future asset to use at currency in another future trade.

The Boston Celtics have the NBA’s best record, but have been searching to fill out their bench. An area of concern has been frontcourt depth. Boston filled that need by acquiring Xavier Tillman Sr. from the Memphis Grizzlies.

Here are the particulars:

Boston Celtics acquire: Xavier Tillman Sr.

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Lamar Stevens, 2027 Atlanta Hawks second-round pick, 2030 Dallas Mavericks second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: $1.9 million in 2023-24

• Xavier Tillman Sr. (C, one year, $1.9 million)

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

• Lamar Stevens (SF/PF, one year, $2.0 million)

Boston has been looking to fill out their bench with quality depth. It’s been termed as looking to add emergency players. That’s what Tillman will likely be for the Celtics, with some potential upside.

Tillman is an undersized five, but he’s strong and a rugged defender. He’s got decent length and athleticism too. That allows him to compete with bigger players and to hold up defensively. He can be used in a number of different schemes, which is important with how often Boston changes their coverages.

On offense, Tillman has been all over the place. As a rookie in 2020-21, Tillman shot a promising 34% on three-pointers. Since then, the outside shot has all but disappeared. This season, Tillman has broken it back out, but he’s hitting only 23% on 1.6 three-point attempts per game.

More worrisome? Tillman’s finishing around the rim has fallen way off too. After hitting a career-high 75% in shots at the rim last season, Tillman has dropped to 57% this season. The hope is that’s because Tillman has been playing in talent-deficient lineups for the incredibly banged-up Grizzlies. With others to attract some attention, Tillman’s efficiency should return.

Beyond his defense and scoring, Tillman is a pretty good rebounder and passer. His per-minute rebounding stats show a guy who is a plus on the glass. Tillman is an underrated passer too. Look for the Celtics to use him in some of the top-of-the-key and elbow actions where Al Horford and Rob Williams have excelled as playmakers.

Boston likely sees Tillman as their fourth-big man. Kristaps Porzingis is the lone starting big, while Horford plays what is essentially a starter’s role off the bench. Luke Kornet has been the third big, with two-way player Neemias Queta filling in when someone is out.

Tillman will bump Queta, who is closing in on maxing out the 50 NBA games he’s allowed to be active for as a two-way player. If Tillman is healthy, and assimilates quickly to the Celtics, he could eventually supplant Kornet in the rotation too.

One interesting and important piece of cap minutiae: Because Boston was able to send Stevens to Memphis in this deal, they were able to retain the entirety of the $6.2 million traded player exception they have from last summer’s sign-and-trade of Grant Williams. Boston also retained an open roster spot. That TPE and the open roster spot are good tools and flexibility for Brad Stevens to have, as he continues to fill out the Celtics bench.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

• Lamar Stevens (SF/PF, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $1.9 million in 2023-24

• Xavier Tillman Sr. (C, one year, $1.9 million)

The Grizzlies are continuing the reshape their roster in what’s become a lost season due to injuries. Trading Tillman doesn’t actually save Memphis any money this season, but they do clear up an open free agent question for the summer.

The Grizzlies might have felt some pressure to re-sign Tillman, who was a draft-and-develop find. Now, they can move in a different direction without feeling a need to potentially overpay Tillman in unrestricted free agency.

Memphis gets to add a couple of additional second-round picks to their coffers. As we covered in the breakdown of the Steven Adams trade, these picks are valuable currency for the Grizzlies. They can use them to backfill open roster spots (standard or two-way), or they can use them in future trades.

It’s somewhat unlikely that Lamar Stevens will play a role for Memphis. He may not even stick past the trade deadline. The Grizzlies would like to clear an open roster spot to sign two-way player GG Jackson to a standard deal. Waiving, or re-trading, Stevens seems to be a path toward getting that done.

The Grizzlies may not be done reworking their roster either. They still have several role players that could interest teams. Memphis is setting themselves up to rebound in a big way with a healthy roster next season. Continuing to clear room around the tax and the aprons could lead to additional summertime moves to aid in a major turnaround for next season.

The Detroit Pistons have been adamant that they aren’t bottoming out their roster, despite the team sitting at the bottom of the NBA’s standings. Detroit has been termed as an opportunistic buyer, and that seemingly led the Pistons to a trade with the Utah Jazz.

Here are the particulars:

Detroit Pistons acquire: Simone Fontecchio

Utah Jazz acquire: Kevin Knox, 2024 second-round pick (more favorable of Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards), draft rights to Gabriele Procida

Let’s dive in!

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $3.0 million in 2023-24

• Simone Fontecchio (SF, one year, $3.0 million, restricted free agent in 2024)

Outgoing salary: $1.8 million in 2023-24

• Kevin Knox (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

The Pistons have been sending signals for weeks, if not months, that they have no intention of staying a bad team. They aren’t in fire-sale mode with their veterans. They’ve pursued players who are on long-term contracts, or under team control, over the past few weeks. Hence: the Zach LaVine rumors.

In Fontecchio, Detroit gets to make a fairly minimal investment to get a player who could really help them now, and moving forward.

Fontecchio has good size for the small forward position. He’s a good shooter and a capable ball-mover. Fontecchio isn’t a great halfcourt scorer, but he’s capable of attacking a closeout or making a move in transition to create a shot.

On defense, Fontecchio is competitive. He’s not going to shut down opposing wings, but he knows how to work within a scheme to shade his man toward help. He’s got pretty good hands, which help him get rebounds and deflections.

Contractually, Detroit will have a pretty immediate decision to make on Fontecchio. They’ll have him for 30ish games before Fontecchio is eligible for restricted free agency this summer. Even though he’s 28 years old, Fontecchio has only been in the NBA for two seasons. Most players with three or fewer years of service are eligible for restricted free agency.

In order to make Fontecchio a restricted free agent, the Pistons will have to tender him a qualifying offer worth $3.8 million. Doing that will allow Detroit to match any offer sheets that Fontecchio might sign as a restricted free agent. It will come at the cost of about $3.9 million in cap space, as that’s the cap hold that will land on Detroit’s books.

Even with Fontecchio’s cap hold on the books, the Pistons project to have an NBA-high $46.6 million in cap space come July.

This trade also opens up Detroit to potentially listen to trade offers for Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks. Fontecchio overlaps positionally with both players. The Pistons could keep all three guys and move into next season with a solid veteran wing group around a lot of young players. Or Detroit could explore moving either Bogdanovic or Burks with Fontecchio in the fold as a replacement.

Knox had played well for Detroit this year, after being signed a few weeks into the season. He’s a replacement level guy though, and he wasn’t assured of having a long-term future with the Pistons.

The draft pick the Pistons are giving up is perhaps a bit steep. However, it’s unlikely Detroit would have drafted a player better than Fontecchio, even with an early second-round pick. And the Pistons are clearly done with building around more young players. They want to add veterans around their youthful core.

The draft rights to Procida are nothing to sneeze at either. We’ll cover him more in the Jazz section. But, like we said above with the draft pick, there isn’t a lot of room to add even more kids to the Pistons roster.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $1.8 million in 2023-24

• Kevin Knox (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $3.0 million in 2023-24

• Simone Fontecchio (SF, one year, $3.0 million, restricted free agent in 2024)
• The Jazz will likely bring Kevin Knox in via the Minimum Exception. That will allow Utah to create a $3 million traded player exception for Simone Fontecchio.
• All signs pointed to the Jazz making at least one trade, if not a few, before Thursday’s deadline. Utah did something similar last season, while sitting in a similar spot in the standings. Danny Ainge will not allow the allure of the Play-In Tournament to seduce him. If he feels there is a good deal to be made, Ainge will make it.

That said, this seems like pretty value for Utah.

Fontecchio has played well, and he’s started for most of the season at small forward for the Jazz. But Utah needs to free up some playing time for younger players, namely 2023 lottery pick Taylor Hendricks. Hendricks has flashed in limited NBA moments, but he’s looked pretty good in the G League. He’s ready to take on a rotation role, either for the rest of this season or at the start of next season.

It’s next season that this was about for Utah as much as it was about any kind of 2024 postseason push.

The Jazz have a chance to create over $40 million in cap space next summer. Trading Fontecchio removes the question of whether or not to tender him a qualifying offer. Now, Utah can move forward with maximizing cap space without Fontecchio’s fate hanging over them.

Adding a high second-round pick is pretty good value. Ainge can add it to his stash of picks and use it as currency in a move that’s to come down the line. At worst, Utah will draft a cost-controlled young player to backfill free agents that move off the roster this offseason.

Adding Gabriele Procida is a smart, no-cost, upside play for the Jazz. The 6-foot-6 wing has good size for his position. Procida has also taken a path somewhat similar to Fontecchio’s. He started his professional career in his native Italy, before moving to ALBA Berlin in Germany. That’s the same move Fontecchio made, before spending a season in Spain ahead of moving to the NBA.

Procida played mostly as a reserve in Italy’s top league. He showed off a nice outside shot, as well as capable defense. In Germany, the 21-year-old has continued his development. Procida hasn’t shot it as well, but he’s been a solid enough defender. ALBA Berlin has struggled in the EuroLeague this season, but they remain one of the better clubs in the German Bundesliga. That means Procida is getting high-level experience at a young age.

Only time will tell if Kevin Knox sticks on the Jazz roster. Utah can keep him for depth purposes for now, as they see how things develop through both the trade deadline and during buyout season.

Don’t be surprised if the Jazz aren’t quite done tweaking their roster. Ainge will keep working as he looks to add talent to solid foundation built around Lauri Markkanen (who will like renegotiate-and-extend his contract this summer) and a promising core of young players. But veterans like Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, Kris Dunn and Talen Horton-Tucker, and possibly John Collins and Collin Sexton, have drawn trade interest. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a couple more rotation players on the move from Utah before Thursday’s deadline.

The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies hooked up on a deal that will have no impact on the current season, but could have a major impact down the line.

Here are the particulars:

Houston Rockets acquire: Steven Adams

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Victor Oladipo, three future second-round picks.

Fun little trade between two division rivals. Let’s dive in!

Houston Rockets

Incoming salary: $12.6 million in 2023-24

• Steven Adams (C, two years, $25.2 million, $12.6 million in 2023-24)

Outgoing salary: $9.5 million in 2023-24

• Victor Oladipo (SG, one year, $9.5 million)

It’s important to note from the jump that Steven Adams is injured and will miss the remainder of the 2023-24 season. So, the on-court impact for this trade won’t be felt until next season. But when it is, it should be a big one for the Rockets.

When we last saw Adams, he was in the midst of the best rebounding season of his career at 11.5 rebounds per game. In fact, Adams run with the Grizzlies saw him average double-digit rebounds for the first two times in his career.

When we next see Adams, he’ll be a 31-year-old coming off having missed an entire season. Will he still be a rebounding, defending, screen-setting force? Or will Adams be unable to stay healthy and slowed enough that his impact is negligible.

Clearly, the Rockets are betting on the former.

Even if he is healthy, Adams probably isn’t a starting center anymore. His offensive impact is setting screens, keeping the ball moving and cleaning up on the offensive glass. Those are all great skills, but Adams isn’t someone teams gameplan around on offense.

On defense, Adams is still pretty rugged. He gets on the defensive glass and he’ll block the occasional shot. He’s also a good backline defender, because he can set and call out coverages for his teammates.

Coming off a right knee injury, and subsequent surgery, that cost him the latter half of last season and all of this season, the veteran center is probably going to see his minutes limited. He’d already dipped under 30 minutes per game the last few years, but that number may now fall below 20 minutes per game.

For Houston, that’s actually fine. The Rockets starting center is burgeoning star Alperen Sengun. Houston had been looking for weeks to find a physical veteran to pair with Sengun. That’s now Adams.

Ime Udoka can now go into next season knowing he has 48 minutes of center play covered most nights between Sengun, Adams and various small-ball options. And Adams’ $12.6 million for 2024-25 is of minimal concern, since Houston should still be well below the luxury tax. The Rockets can also create even more distance under the tax line if they waive Jock Landale or, less likely, Jeff Green.

The three second-round picks are a steep cost for the Rockets. However, there needs to be a bit of context factored in. Two picks are reportedly coming in 2024 and one in 2025. In 2024, the Rockets have picks from the Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder. None of those are projected to be particularly juicy, meaning near the top of the second-round. In 2025, the Rockets only have the Thunder’s pick. Again, that’s likely to be in the back half of the round, if not deep into the 50s.

In addition to the picks being potentially less-then-stellar, Houston is kind of running out of roster spots, especially ones for developmental prospects. The Rockets seem committed to making a run at the playoffs in 2025. They’d rather use their end-of-the-bench spots on veterans who could play a real role in a playoff run.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $9.5 million in 2023-24

• Victor Oladipo (SG, one year, $9.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.6 million in 2023-24

• Steven Adams (C, two years, $25.2 million, $12.6 million in 2023-24)
• The Grizzlies will likely create a $12.6 million Traded Player Exception (TPE) for Steven Adams in this deal. They’ll do this by bringing Victor Oladipo into the Disabled Player Exception (DPE) that they have for Ja Morant. Memphis will also forfeit the DPE they currently have for Adams, once the deal is completed.

This trade is all about flexibility for Memphis. With Adams on the books for next season, the Grizzlies were facing being a potential second apron team. With Adams off the books, and Oladipo on an expiring contract, Memphis projects to be only $2 million over the tax line. That’s close enough that another move or two could see the Grizzlies get out of the tax entirely.

And that’s what this trade is all about: Flexibility.

Memphis was previously in a tough spot, as second apron teams will have the full boat of restrictions placed upon them next season. Making trades is more difficult, as the second apron teams can’t aggregate salaries and they have to match salary dollar for dollar. They also don’t have any of the better signing exceptions. Essentially, second apron teams are limited to signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Before making this deal, Memphis would likely have been making a difficult decision on picking up their $14.8 million team option for Luke Kennard for 2024-25. Now, the Grizzlies can pick up Kennard’s option and make only a smaller move or two to dip under the tax line next season.

That’s big for a team that is hoping to bounce back in a major way next season, when Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and others will hopefully return to full health.

One of those “others” is Brandon Clarke. He’ll now take on a bigger role than ever with Adams out of the mix. Memphis should be in a position where they have enough to get by at the center position, even without the veteran center. Jaren Jackson Jr. has held down that spot for long stretches this season, and Clarke can also play the five. Santi Aldama has shown he’s ready for a bigger role too.

The increased flexibility around the tax should also give Memphis greater leeway to re-sign Xavier Tillman Sr. The Grizzlies love Tillman’s game and would be happy to keep him, especially with an increased role lined up in place of Adams.

Acquiring Oladipo won’t have any sort of on-court impact, even if the Grizzlies continue to be banged up and undermanned. It’s unlikely Oladipo will even play in a game for Memphis. The Grizzlies may retain Oladipo through the trade deadline, while they see if another deal emerges. If no other deal develops, Memphis may either work a buyout with Oladipo or could simply waive him.

Waiving Oladipo would free up a roster spot for the Grizzlies. That’s crucial because two-way player G.G. Jackson is looking increasingly like someone Memphis should get signed to a long-term deal.

Getting three second-round picks is also good the Grizzlies. They have been one of the league’s better draft-and-develop teams in the league. Even if none of the picks come in at the top part of the second-round, Memphis can use these picks to fill two-way spots, or to select draft-and-stash players.

Related:

NBA Trade Machine

NBA Trade Tracker

We’re about a week-and-a-half out from the NBA trade deadline on February 8. Unlike the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are in more defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

From there, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each Western Conference team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

(You can find the Eastern Conference teams here.)

Dallas Mavericks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Dallas has slipped over the past couple of weeks into Play-In Tournament range. But the Mavs aren’t packing it in. A top-six spot is still very in play. Expect Dallas to continue to look for upgrades.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

A team led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving shouldn’t be satisfied with just making the playoffs. The Mavs have the ability to go make a deal. If they can find another wing, or another playable big, Dallas should be on it.

Denver Nuggets

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Denver doesn’t really have the ability to do a lot. All of their tradable salary is attached to key rotation players. Maybe the Nuggets decide to move a couple of their kids, but that seems unlikely.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

The Nuggets are fine. They have what they need. If a big shakes free on the buyout market, it could be worth looking in to. Beyond that, Denver should just defend their title with what they have.

Golden State Warriors

Approach at the deadline: Either

It feels weird to even suggest the Warriors could be sellers. Yet, here we are. Golden State is looking at a lot of options. None of the long-time core is going anywhere, but they’re open to a conversation on everyone else.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Warriors are three games behind the Lakers and Jazz for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. And they’d have to climb the Rockets to get there too. They shouldn’t trade Stephen Curry, Draymond Green or Klay Thompson, unless the former asks for one or they get blown away with an offer for the latter two. They should also hang onto Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski. If a deal is there to rebalance the cap sheet or the rotation, Golden State should jump on it.

Houston Rockets

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Rockets are still looking to add to their roster. They have some draft capital that they can move, courtesy of the Brooklyn Nets. But Houston isn’t making short-term moves. They want players who can help now and moving forward.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Let’s call the Rockets long-term investors. They’re rumored to be interested in Robert Williams III of the Trail Blazers. That’s the kind of move that makes sense, because he won’t cost too much, and he can help next year and beyond. As long as they are careful, Houston is in great shape to keep moving this rebuild forward.

LA Clippers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

This one is somewhere between buying and doing nothing. The Clippers already made their big trade when they got James Harden. Adding Daniel Theis after his buyout shored up the frontcourt. They’re look at moving P.J. Tucker, especially if they can add a true power forward, but LA may just sit this one out.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

If there is a deal to send Tucker somewhere and bring back a ready-to-play 4/5, the Clippers should do it. That’s really all this roster needs. They’ve got everything else.

Los Angeles Lakers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Lakers are kind of in the same spot as last season, only not nearly as desperate. Last year, Los Angeles had to make a deal to save their season. This time around, the Lakers are looking for players who can aid in a playoff push, while also being long-term pieces.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing this well, you owe it to them and yourselves to make your roster better. But the Lakers have to be smart about how they do this. They aren’t close enough to a title to make an all-in move for just the rest of this season. If something comes along that can have an impact for a few seasons, Los Angeles should pursue it.

Memphis Grizzlies

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Memphis knows this is a lost season. They aren’t chasing any more upgrades. And the Grizzlies don’t like to trade players they’ve invested time in. It looks like a quiet deadline in Memphis.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

No, the Grizzlies shouldn’t be moving any of their big-name guys. Let them recover and get back at making a run next season. But Memphis has a logjam on the roster. It’s probably time to cut bait on a few of the guys they’ve drafted. If nothing else, the Grizzlies should clear a roster spot to sign G.G. Jackson to a long-term deal off his two-way contract.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Minnesota doesn’t have a lot to trade. Their draft picks are tied up from the Rudy Gobert trade. The bigger salaries all belong to rotation players. And the team is looking like it will be wildly expensive next season, when extensions kick in for Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. That impacts taking on salary beyond this season.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

This might be Minnesota’s last window to add talent. And they are contenders to come out of the West. Adding a veteran guard that can keep things moving when Mike Conley is off the floor should be a priority. And it shouldn’t be cost prohibitive to get that done, either.

New Orleans Pelicans

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Pelicans goal was to get out of the luxury tax before the deadline, and they did that by sending Kira Lewis Jr. out in the Pascal Siakam series of deals. Maybe New Orleans could look for a long-term answer at center, but it doesn’t seem likely they’ll find an upgrade on Jonas Valanciunas in-season.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

The thing the Pels need most is health, and they can’t trade for that. If a smaller deal comes up to add some extra draft capital for Naji Marshall or Jose Alvarado, it’s worth pursuing. Beyond that, let’s see how a playoff run goes before deciding the fate of this roster over the summer.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Thunder aren’t out on making deals, but they don’t seem overly active either. This isn’t a “Dump your bad contracts here!” situation anymore. The Thunder are good, and they are deep. They don’t seem quite ready to make that big move quite yet, though.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

OKC could win the West. They’re that good. They could use another big. One that could play with and behind Chet Holmgren would be ideal. Windows feel like they’ll be open forever for young teams, but things happen to cause them to close quicker than you expect. When you are this close, and you have all the assets the Thunder do, why not go for it?

Phoenix Suns

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Phoenix is still looking to add to their roster, but they are about out of tradable assets. Any player, aside from Nassir Little, that is on a non-minimum deal, is starting. The Suns are dangling Little and the handful of second-round picks they’ve acquired, but it’s unclear if that will get them anything.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

It’s worth trying to make another deal for Phoenix, because this team still has some holes, especially in the frontcourt. But the lack of assets is going to be a problem.

Portland Trail Blazers

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Blazers are listening on Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III. They don’t seem inclined to move Jerami Grant at this point. Moving Brogdon would have the double benefit of adding back some draft capital and/or young players, and freeing up minutes in a crowded backcourt.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Portland should move at least Brogdon at the deadline. He’s played well for them, but the team isn’t going anywhere, and they’ve got younger guards who need to play. If they can trade Williams for a decent return, that’s worth exploring too. He’s not a good fit with Deandre Ayton, and Ayton seems entrenched up front for now. If a team called with a huge offer for Anfernee Simons, that’s worth listening to too.

Sacramento Kings

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Kings know they are a good team, and they want to stay out of the Play-In Tournament. They’ve also got some tradable assets. But don’t expect Sacramento to get silly. The all-in move might not be there yet.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Adding another wing, ideally one who can really defend, would be huge for Sacramento. Beyond that, the Kings can afford to be patient and look for bigger moves this summer.

San Antonio Spurs

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

This Spurs section used to be the easiest to write. They never did in-season trades. That’s changed over the last few seasons. San Antonio is open to moving several of their vets, including Doug McDermott, Cedi Osman and Devonte’ Graham.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

If the Spurs can add young talent or draft picks by trading any of the vets mentioned above, they should do it. Also, keep an eye on Keldon Johnson. He’s been in primarily a bench role this season, and some have suggested he’s available via trade too.

Utah Jazz

Approach at the deadline: Either

This one might actually go both ways for Utah. Danny Ainge has run deadlines in the past where he’s moved off some players, while bringing in others to strengthen the team. The Jazz are looking for upgrades, but are open to moving some veterans too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Expect Utah to be increasingly involved in trade talks over the next week or so. They could move Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Kelly Olynyk or Talen Horton-Tucker in deals. Those deals won’t be giveaways though. Look for the Jazz to try to upgrade in terms of players who could help push them forward. But if Ainge has deals that are more future focused, he won’t let the allure of Play-In Tournament move him off his long-term plan.

We’re two weeks out from the NBA trade deadline on February 8. Unlike the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are in more defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

From there, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Hawks are sellers, but not in the “Everything must go!” sense. Instead, Atlanta is looking to rebalance their roster, but more importantly their cap sheet.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers 

Atlanta has too many good players on long-term contracts to completely blow things up at the deadline. Instead, if they can shuttle out some of their bigger long-term deals for players who fit better, they’ll come out ahead in the long run.

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

This one comes with a caveat. The Celtics buyers like Bob Cratchit at Harrods of London. They might want to get someone great, but they don’t have much to work with. Such is life when your playoff rotation seems mostly set and all the big salaries are tied up in rotation players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Boston should be looking to buy. Maybe they could snag a regular season (and maybe postseason) rotation player on the cheap (both in terms of contract and trade cost) from someone. Maybe they use their $6.2 million TPE to get a player. The Celtics do have a few tradable picks to work with. Ideally, they’d get someone who can help now and has a contract that carries another year or two. Otherwise, this is the same spot Boston will also be in next season. And probably the season after that too.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Either

It doesn’t seem like the Nets are done fighting for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. But Brooklyn could pivot and try to move off some players to bring in future assets. Or they could try to bring in help to chase a postseason spot.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Nets don’t have to go crazy. Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton and Cam Johnson should all be considered in the “you have to blow us away with an offer” category. But everyone else should be up for grabs. Sure, the Nets own picks are gone, but that’s a sunk cost. It’s not like Sean Marks hasn’t sailed these troubled waters before and come out just fine on the other side.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte already moved Terry Rozier III and that feels like it’s just the start. Keeping LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams is smart. They are your building blocks. Everyone else is tradable.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte is going to keep trying, but moving some other players is harder than it seems. Miles Bridges can block any trade, because he’ll lose his Bird Rights if he’s dealt. And losing his Bird Rights might matter, because his salary is so low this season. Gordon Hayward is very available, but his contract is tough to move at $31.5 million. Kyle Lowry can be flipped, but only by himself. P.J. Washington should have good trade value, as he’s on a fair-value contract. Same with Nick Richards, but even more so. The real question: Will Ish Smith find his way to a 14th NBA team?

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Either

Chicago might move Zach LaVine, but it won’t be in a “blowing it up” move. The Bulls will be looking to get back players who can help them in their eternal quest for the eighth seed.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. Where is this team going with this core this year and next? The Play-In Tournament? The eighth seed? Is any of that exciting anyone? Chicago should blow it up, but they won’t.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs created some wiggle room under the luxury tax when Ricky Rubio took a buyout. But that also removed one of Cleveland’s more tradable salaries. They’re also just about out of draft picks to trade. Unless there is a surprise move coming with a core rotation player, the Cavaliers might more or less sit out the deadline.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither 

As stated above, the Cavaliers most tradable player now is probably Isaac Okoro, who has an expiring $8.9 million contract. He’s also Cleveland’s best perimeter defender. So, this is a tough spot to find workable trades. The buyout market is probably more of a thing for the Cavs.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Either

Let’s call Detroit short-term sellers and long-term buyers. The Pistons might move a few vets, but they’d also like to add players who can help them move things forward next season.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Let’s be clear: If the Pistons can find a deal for a guy who can help them be a better team next season and beyond, they should do it. We’re just a little doubtful that deal is coming by the trade deadline. Feels more like a summertime thing. Because of that, it’s time to move some of the veterans for draft picks and young players. Then, maximize the cap space this offseason, and not by eating bad contracts for middling draft picks.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Either

Indiana is in a good place. They don’t really need a whole lot, beyond Tyrese Haliburton getting healthy. If only they could trade for that! Otherwise, maybe Buddy Hield gets dealt, but he seems to be in a pretty good spot as a key player on a good team. And that means that the capital to buy with is less than ideal.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Presumably, the Pascal Siakam deal was done with an understanding that he’d re-sign this summer. That means Indiana is pretty well set with their core for the next few years. It’s time to supplement that group. If moving a handful of their mid-range contracts (T.J. McConnell, Jalen Smith, Obi Toppin) can bring in another rotation player for this year and beyond, the Pacers should jump on it.

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Heat made their move with the Kyle Lowry for Terry Rozier III swap. They don’t have the tradable draft picks, nor the tradable salary to do much else.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

Maybe Miami could find another deal, but at what cost? All of their meaningful salary is tied up in key rotation guys. If there’s a shakeup coming, it’ll come in July, not February.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Bucks want another perimeter player, ideally a 3&D option. But they don’t have much to trade. They are out of tradable draft capital, and their best matching salary belongs to rotation players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

This is similar to the Celtics situation, but without the draft picks to trade. If Milwaukee does anything “big”, it’ll probably involve Pat Connaughton. And that’s only going to get the Bucks so much.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Knicks are still looking for upgrades to their rotation. They’ve been linked to guards and wings, even after the OG Anunoby deal. The Knicks could also use another center, given injury issues. With the Evan Fournier contract and some drafts picks to dangle, New York could still make another big move.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

This isn’t the final window for New York to do something big. If they have a sense that a better deal might be there in the summer, they could pick up Fournier’s option and roll him over to an expiring contract asset through next season. Don’t expect any other big deals by the deadline, but don’t rule it out either.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Magic are best termed as cautious buyers. Their history tells us they will do something. It could be a small move or it could be something big. Jeff Weltman has done something at each deadline that he’s run the team. This time, it’s starting to feel like a bigger upgrade could come, as this team is close to a playoff spot.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Orlando should be looking to buy. They have sizable expiring contracts in Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris, and a pseudo-expiring deal in Jonathan Isaac. Fultz and Isaac are health risks, and Harris is entrenched as a backup. If the Magic can make a move to solidify the rotation, especially at the guard spot, they should do it. This team is good, but not so good that a playoff spot is guaranteed. Now is the time to make a bigger move to lift the young kids onto the big stage.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Daryl Morey is going to try to thread a difficult needle at the deadline: Add to the roster, while keeping some flexibility for the summer. Morey has been cautious to maintain the Sixers flexibility. He’s not going to let that go for a marginal upgrade. If there isn’t a big move to made, he’ll stay patient and do his work this offseason.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Philadelphia is a title contender. Joel Embiid is playing at an incredible level. Tyrese Maxey is really good too. And the 76ers have a bunch of tradable contracts and a few draft picks to trade too. The real question is if Morey can find a deal that makes sense for next few months, but also the next few years. Otherwise, don’t rule out a shuffle of expiring deals for expiring deals that brings the Sixers a rotation upgrade on the wing.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Raptors finally started the resetting process by trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. They won’t give away guys like Bruce Brown, Dennis Schroder, Gary Trent Jr., or a host of big men. But Masai Ujiri isn’t done resetting this roster either. Note: resetting vs rebuilding. There isn’t a full-scale teardown job. It’s a rest around Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto is finally on a path. They aren’t out of the running for the Play-In Tournament, but they shouldn’t be chasing it either. In fact, if trading some of the vets listed above causes the Raptors to fall down around sixth in the draft order, they’d get to keep their pick this year. That shouldn’t be considered a priority, but let’s call it a happy circumstance.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Washington finally kicked off a rebuild last offseason. They can keep that moving forward by trading more of their veteran players and leaning even further into a youth movement. That seems to be the Wizards approach.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

It’s been a long time coming, but the Wizards are finally here. No more chasing the eighth seed. If they can find the right moves for guys like Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, Daniel Gafford and maybe even Jordan Poole, Washington should jump on them. Taking on Marvin Bagley’s contract for a couple of second-round picks signaled this is a multi-year rebuild. Lean into that and keep churning the roster in Washington.

2024 NBA trade season just keeps on spinning. This time around, it was the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat swapping veteran guards in a move that makes sense for both franchises.

Here are the particulars:

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Kyle Lowry, lottery-protected 2027 Heat first-round pick

Miami Heat acquire: Terry Rozier III

This is a fun trade between two division rivals. Let’s dive in!

Miami Heat

Incoming salary: $23.3 million in 2023-24

• Terry Rozier III (PG/SG, three years, $74.8 million, $23.3 million in 2023-24)

Outgoing salary: $29.7 million in 2023-24

• Kyle Lowry (PG, one year, $29.7 million)

The Miami Heat’s season hasn’t gone exactly as hoped for. The Heat haven’t been bad, but they are in a battle to stay in the top-six and out of the Play-In Tournament. One issue for Miami has been their guard play.

That’s solved by acquiring Terry Rozier III.

Rozier is having the best season of his nine-year NBA career. He’s averaging a career-high 23.2 points and 6.6 assist per game. And they aren’t empty stats either, as Rozier has been efficient this season. He’s shot 45.9% from the field and 35.8% from behind the arc. That’s even more impressive when you factor in that he’s spent long stretches of the season as Charlotte’s best on-ball creator.

On defense. Rozier has slipped some from his days with the Boston Celtics. He’s no longer the bulldog defender he was in Boston, but Rozier is better than he’s showed with Charlotte. He should fit in nicely with the Heat, where having good defenders around him, and something to play for, will help him lift his game.

Losing Lowry is probably more of a shock to the system than it is an on-court impact. Lowry has continued a four-year trend of taking fewer shots than the season before. He’s around his career shooting percentages from the field and on three-pointers, but creating shots has become a challenge. He’s no longer able to create good shots for himself, and that has also limited his ability to create good looks for his teammates.

Lowry’s defense has also slipped considerably. He’s not quick enough to keep up with the better guards, so he gets by on positioning, guile and veteran know-how. But that only goes so far, especially with the Heat dreaming about making another deep playoff run. Rozier will be an upgrade over Lowry on defense, even in his diminished state.

On the cap sheet, Miami is taking on a decent chunk of change long-term. The Heat moved off almost $6.5 million for this season. That gets Miami within about $4.1 million of dropping below the first tax apron. 

That’s important if the Heat wanted get involved on the buyout market. Under the new CBA, teams that are above the apron are prohibited from signing buyout players who made more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE on their previous contract.

Long-term, Miami adds $24.9 million for Rozier for 2024-25 and $26.6 million for 2025-26. The final season of Rozier’s deal is partially guaranteed for nearly the full amount. That season also becomes fully guaranteed if Rozier’s team (now the Heat) makes the second round of the playoffs in either 2024 or 2025, and if Rozier appears in at least 70 games. Essentially, consider both of Rozier’s seasons beyond this one to be fully guaranteed.

That’s not really a big concern for the Heat. Miami projects to be well over the cap for the next two seasons. Acquiring Rozier will have the Heat dancing around the tax apron again next season, but that’s something the Miami front office has become used to.

For what it’s worth, the Heat also created a $6.5 million Traded Player Exception (TPE) in this deal. Miami could use that TPE to absorb a smaller-salaried player ahead of the trade deadline.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $29.7 million in 2023-24

• Kyle Lowry (PG, one year, $29.7 million)

Outgoing salary: $23.3 million in 2023-24

• Terry Rozier III (PG/SG, three years, $74.8 million, $23.3 million in 2023-24)

This trade was about creating future flexibility for the Hornets. It’s been reported that Kyle Lowry and Charlotte won’t agree to an immediate buyout. The Hornets will look to trade Lowry in an addition deal, as they look to continue to add to their asset base.

It’s also been reported that the Hornets are open to moving other players, as they look for draft picks and increased flexibility ahead of the 2024 offseason. It’s assumed that the only off-limits players on Charlotte’s roster are LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Mark Williams. Everyone else is likely available for the right price.

On the court, this trade will have little impact for the Hornets. They are a bad team, and will continue to be so. What this does in the immediate is free up a bit of a logjam when everyone is healthy. For however long they are all on the roster, Charlotte now has starting spots and minutes for all of their guards and wings. To that end, it will be somewhat of a surprise if Lowry suits up for the Hornets before the trade deadline, if ever.

On the cap sheet, the Hornets have freed up a considerable amount of flexibility. Pre-trade, Charlotte was projected to have about $21.7 million in cap space this offseason. Now, the Hornets project to have around $45.5 million in cap space this summer.

No, Charlotte isn’t a prime free agent destination. But cap space can be used to acquire players via trade, or to make the trade process far easier. The Hornets could also take a longer-term approach and “rent out” some cap space in exchange for draft picks and/or young players.

Mostly, the Hornets have created a lot of flexibility for a team that has been basically capped out over the last few seasons. If Charlotte continues to move veteran players like Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington and others, they’ll have a chance to rebuild their roster around Ball, Miller, Williams and a bunch of draft picks and young players.

The key? The Hornets can’t get impatient this time around. They were in cap jail for years, got free and immediately signed Hayward to a questionable contract. If Charlotte sells off their vets, they can’t turn around and sign Tier C free agents to long-term, big-money contracts. Stay the course, build around your cornerstones and find values through your signings and trades. That’s the winning playbook for a small market team. And the Hornets are now set up to be on their way.

NBA trade season is off to a raucous start! The upstart Indiana Pacers made a major move by acquiring Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors. This move should put Indiana firmly in the mix for homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs, after a three-year playoff drought. At the end of December, Toronto had traded OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickly. Now, Masai Ujiri and his front office staff are continuing the reshaping of the Raptors roster around Scottie Barnes. This deal also includes the New Orleans Pelicans, as they have made a tax-avoidance trade. In actuality, this will end up being two separate trades.

Trade 1:
Indiana Pacers acquire: Kira Lewis Jr., least favorable 2024 second-round pick from the Pelicans or Bulls
New Orleans Pelicans acquire: Cash Considerations

Trade 2:
Indiana Pacers acquire: Pascal Siakam
Toronto Raptors acquire: Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis Jr., Jordan Nwora, 2024 Pacers first-round pick, least favorable 2024 first-round pick from the Rockets (5-30), Clippers, Thunder or Jazz (11-30), 2026 Pacers first-round pick

Since the Pacers are acquiring Lewis with cap space, they will be able to reaggregate him in the trade to the Raptors immediately. Let’s dive into what it these trades mean for each team!

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $37.9 million in 2023-24

• Pascal Siakam (PF/C, one year, $37.9 million)

Outgoing salary: $30.7 million in 2023-24

• Bruce Brown (SG/SF, two years, $45 million (team option for 2024-25), $22 million for 2023-24)
• Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, one year, $5.7 million)
• Jordan Nwora (SF, one year, $3 million)

The Pacers are off to a 23-17 start and looking to break a three-year streak of missing the playoffs. With Pascal Siakam in the fold, Indiana can start thinking even bigger. Indiana is in a battle with the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Miam Heat and Orlando Magic for the fourth through eighth position in the Eastern Conference. This trade should put the Pacers near the top of that group, which would mean homecourt advantage.

All season long, the Pacers have made it work at the power forward position. They tried Obi Toppin for 28 games, but it never quite fit perfectly. Indiana then reverted back to the four-smalls around Myles Turner looks they had some success with last year, but that isn’t ideal either. In recent weeks, Jalen Smith has stepped in as the second big next to Turner, but that look leaves Pacers less versatile than they want. Enter Siakam. And not just for the second half of this season, either.

There’s already been reporting that Siakam is thrilled with the trade to Indiana and will look to re-sign with the Pacers this offseason. Let’s pause from the on-court analysis to take a look at what Siakam’s next contract could look like. Because of this trade, Siakam is limited to extending with Indiana for no more than is allowable by the extend-and-trade rules. That would look like this:

• 2024-25: $39,788,078
• 2025-26: $41,777,482
• Total: two years, $81,565,560

In the summer, the Pacers will have full Bird Rights for Siakam. That means they’ll be able to offer him a five-year max deal that looks like this:

• 2024-25: $42,600,000
• 2025-26: $46,008,000
• 2026-27: $49,416,000
• 2027-28: $52,824,000
• 2028-29: $56,232,000
• Total: five years, $247,080,000

That’s the 30% of the cap maximum with 8% raises. If Siakam was to leave for another team, his max deal would look like this:

• 2024-25: $42,600,000
• 2025-26: $44,730,000
• 2026-27: $46,860,000
• 2027-28: $48,990,000
• Total: four years, $183,180,000

That’s starting at the same 30% of the cap maximum, but with 5% raises and capped at a four-year deal.

The extension option feels a bit light for Siakam, especially in terms of years. The full max seems a bit much for the Pacers. The guess here is that he’ll get some form of four-year deal that pays him in the range of $180 to $190 million. That gets Siakam close to, or more than, the max he could get from another team, but without either side having to lock into a full maximum contract.

One important note: Even if Siakam makes All-NBA this season, he’s no longer eligible for a Designated Veteran Contract, which would start at 35% of the salary cap. A player can only get a Designated contract from the team that drafted them, or a team that acquired them while still on their rookie contract.

Let’s get back to the on-court part of this trade for the Pacers. Indiana now has their power forward of the present and, presumably, the future. Siakam will be a major upgrade over any of the options the Pacers have used over the last two seasons. His three-point shooting has regressed back to the low 30% range over the past two seasons, but Siakam has also limited his attempts from distance too.

As a scorer, Siakam takes over 59% of his shots in/around the paint, with a healthy 28% of them coming right at the rim. He’s also shooting a robust 76.8% at the rim this year. Of the Pacers who attempt more than four field goals per game, no one matches Siakam’s combination of volume and efficiency inside.

Siakam also remains a solid rebounder, which will help an Indiana team that ranks in the bottom-five of the NBA in defensive rebounding. He’s also a good transition player, which fits in the Pacers high-octane offense. And Siakam is a good shot-creator and passer too.

The biggest upgrade might be on defense. Prior to this trade, Indiana didn’t have a four that could defend both on the perimeter and the interior. While Siakam isn’t the shot-blocker he was in his first few seasons, he’s still a solid on-ball and help defender. While no one is stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid, Siakam can at least take his turn making them work. That will free up Myles Turner to roam as a help defender, which is where he really excels. In addition, Siakam is a very good double-teamer, as he uses his length and quickness to make it hard for opponents to find passing outlets.

The Pacers lose some perimeter defense in this deal with Bruce Brown headed to Toronto. But it’s not a massive loss. Indiana still has Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard who can pick up opposing ballhandlers on the wing. On offense, Brown wasn’t shooting as well as the last couple of seasons, and his playmaking was a bit muted in his spot-up role. That means he should be replaceable for the Pacers.

Essentially, Brown’s contract accomplished a few things. First, it helped Indiana to get to the salary floor, which all teams have to be at by the start of the season under the new CBA. Second, it was the exact type of tradable salary the Pacers envisioned it would be if a big move came their way. And last, but not least, Brown is making more money in this one season than he had made his first five years of his career combined.

Jordan Nwora hasn’t been able to lock down a consistent rotation role in his four NBA seasons. He’s a talented shooter and scorer, but Nwora doesn’t offer much else. Maybe he’s a late-bloomer, but it wasn’t going to happen in Indiana.

As for the draft picks…Yes, it’s a significant investment for a pending free agent. But these aren’t premium draft picks, at least not right now. This season’s Pacers pick should land around the early-to-mid 20s. The other 2024 pick is destined to be in the late-20s, pending where the Thunder or Clippers finish in the standings. The 2026 first-rounder Indiana is sending Toronto is more of an unknown, but a team built around a prime Tyrese Haliburton should be able to stay a playoff team.

If Siakam walks, it’ll sting for Indiana for sure. But they didn’t send everything that wasn’t tied down to Toronto here. They made a significant investment in a player who can lift them this season, and likely for the next few years, as well. If it doesn’t work out, the Pacers are out a couple of picks, but still have tremendous cap flexibility moving forward.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $30.7 million in 2023-24

• Bruce Brown (SG/SF, two years, $45 million (team option for 2024-25), $22 million for 2023-24)
• Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, one year, $5.7 million)
• Jordan Nwora (SF, one year, $3 million)

Outgoing salary: $37.9 million in 2023-24

• Pascal Siakam (PF/C, one year, $37.9 million)

OG Anunoby (who didn’t play in that title run) and Pascal Siakam were the last links to the 2019 champs. That alone signals how much of a reset this is for the Raptors. And make no mistake, this is reset, not a rebuild.

Toronto created an incredible amount of future flexibility for themselves, while gaining some long-term assets in terms of players and draft picks in their two recent trades. This deal, in particular, is likely to deliver more on the cap sheet and in the draft pick vault than on the court.

Sure, Bruce Brown could be a nice player for Toronto. But the Raptors already have a pretty crowded wing rotation. In fact, it’s so crowed that it’d a surprise to see both Brown and Gary Trent Jr. still in Toronto after the trade deadline. Brown can’t be reaggregated with any other players in a pre-deadline move, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have trade value all on his own. As a 3&D wing, who can also handle it some and pass, Brown has a lot of value. It’s likely Toronto is already getting calls to see what it will take to get him.

Lewis and Nwora are flyers as the Raptors reset the rest of this season. It’s not clear how much either will play, as Lewis is behind both Immanual Quickley and Dennis Schroder at point guard and Nwora is behind several other wings and forwards. But if subsequent trades free up playing time, Lewis or Nwora could pop with an increased opportunity.

However, this trade was as much about picking up some additional draft picks, which give Toronto replacements for the ones they sent to San Antonio in the Jakob Poeltl trade. None looks like a truly prime pick, but you never know what will happen, especially a couple of years out.

This trade could have the added benefit of makin Toronto’s own pick better for this year. As it stands right now, the Raptors on the cusp of keeping their own 2024 first-round pick, as it’s top-6 protected. The chances of the Raptors “catching” the Portland Trail Blazers or Charlotte Hornets are pretty low, but again, you never know.

As for the cap sheet, the Raptors books are now pretty clean. They can reasonably create up to $31.5 million in cap space for the upcoming offseason. That would mean clearing the decks of all but their guaranteed salaries, plus cap holds for Quickley and their first-round picks. But that’s not really a big deal, as none of the Raptors pending free agents seem overly likely to return.

Overall, Toronto has set themselves up to build around a new core of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and whatever they do with their newfound flexibility. That’s why this is a reset and not a rebuild.

New Orleans Pelicans

Incoming salary: None
Outgoing salary: $5.7 million in 2023-24

• Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, one year, $5.7 million)

This trade is pretty simple for New Orleans. The Pelicans were $2.9 million over the luxury tax line for this season. The Pelicans have never paid the tax in franchise history. This year wasn’t going to be the first. That meant finding a trade partner to move some salary too, with Lewis always being the most likely candidate. That’s in part due to moving only his salary being enough to dodge the tax, while also creating a little wiggle room for future transactions. It’s also in part due to Lewis not being a part of the rotation in New Orleans, while being a pending free agent this summer.

The Pelicans will have 14 days to sign a 14th player to a standard contract. That’ll eat into a little bit of the wiggle room they’ve just created. The guesses here for how New Orleans fills that spot are:

• Another trade. This one seems a bit less likely, but could be on the table.
• Converting Matt Ryan to a standard contract. This is possible. The Pelicans like Ryan quite a bit and could get him on a multi-year deal by using part of their remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE.
• Converting Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to a standard contract. Less likely than Ryan, but it would work the same way.
• Signing a player, or players, to 10-Day contracts. This seems most likely, especially in the immediate.
• Signing a player, or players, for the rest of the season. This is also possible, if there is a free agent available that New Orleans feels like they have to get. This could also come after the team undergoes a series of 10-Day “tryouts”, if you will.

Overall, for the cost of one second-round pick, the Pelicans got out of the tax. That’s probably a swing of somewhere between $17 and $20 million to the New Orleans ownership group. That’s big, and will hopefully be remembered when the team has to re-sign some key players down the line.

Notes

As of the writing of this article, the following items hadn’t been fully confirmed:

• Who the Indiana Pacers are waiving to complete the Kira Lewis Jr. acquisition. Even thought Indiana is trading Lewis to the Raptors, they have to create a roster spot for him first. It’s likely that spot will be created by waiving James Johnson, but this has not been confirmed as of yet. UPDATE: The Pacers chose to waive James Johnson.
• Who the Toronto Raptors are waiving to complete the 3-for-1 trade. Toronto has one open roster spot, but will need to free up an additional spot to bring in Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis Jr. and Jordan Nwora. It’s likely that spot will be created by waiving Garrett Temple, but this has not been confirmed as of yet. UPDATE: The Raptors chose to waive Christian Koloko.
• Created Traded Player Exceptions. The Raptors should create a TPE of $7.2 million for Pascal Siakam in this trade. The Pelicans should create a TPE of $5.7 million for Kira Lewis Jr. in this trade. UPDATE: The Raptors chose to use part of the Precious Achiuwa TPE to bring in Jordan Nwora. This created a $10.2 million TPE for Pascal Siakam. The Pelicans did create a $5.7M TPE for Kira Lewis Jr.

The 2024 NBA trade deadline is about one month away.  So far, we’ve seen three in-season trades. The Philadelphia 76ers traded James Harden to the LA Clippers just a few days into the season. The Toronto Raptors traded OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks in a deal that saw RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley head to Toronto. And last week, the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards hooked up in a salary-clearing trade for the Pistons.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit a month from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $9.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $23.0 million (John Collins)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed a first-round pick from Sacramento, which should come this year or next. Hawks have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dejounte Murray or Saddiq Bey. If Atlanta goes for a big reset, Murray will be traded. If it’s a smaller deal, then it’ll be Bey.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.6 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.2 million (Grant Williams)

Draft Pick Situation: Boston owes a 2029 first to Portland. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028. Boston has at least eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Take your pick of Dalano Banton, Svi Mykhailiuk or Lamar Stevens. All are on minimum deals, and that’s probably how the Celtics are working at this deadline. All of their significant salary is tied up in key players who aren’t getting traded.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $19.9 million (Joe Harris), $18.1 million (Kevin Durant), $6.8 million Patty Mills, $4.5 million (Kyrie Irving)

Draft Pick Situation: Sean Marks refilled his draft pick coffers when he traded away James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. The Nets still owe two of their own picks to the Rockets, along with a couple of swaps. But Brooklyn has added five extra first-round picks. The Nets have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Royce O’Neale. He has the easiest deal to move at $9.5 million. Maybe Brooklyn goes bigger, but even then, O’Neale is probably a part of any trade.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $29.8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected first-rounder to the Spurs, but own all the rest of their own first-round picks. Charlotte has at least nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Miles Bridges. Bridges’ signing the one-year qualifying offer was a signal this is probably a short-term relationship between him and the Hornets. If a team can get past the off-court issues, Bridges won’t cost all that much in trade. Gordon Hayward would be a strong second choice here, but his contract may prove to be too large to move in-season.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $10.2 million (Lonzo Ball – Disabled Player Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe a protected first-round picks to San Antonio in the coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2028. Chicago has a lottery-protected first owed to them from the Trail Blazers. The Bulls also have two truly tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached.

Most Likely to be Traded: Zach LaVine. The star guard has already asked for a trade, and he’s back from injury now. It’s a massive contract to move, but feels like Chicago will eventually find a taker from a playoff team that is desperate for some scoring.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes three future first-round picks to the Jazz, as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The Cavs have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Isaac Okoro. There isn’t a great choice here, after Ricky Rubio took a contract buyout. Okoro is in the final year of his contract, so maybe Cleveland looks to move him before he hits restricted free agency in July. As for Donovan Mitchell…that’ll be a summer thing, if even then.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.9 million (Davis Bertans)

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a first to New York that should convey this season. The Mavericks also owe a pick to Brooklyn in 2029, and the Spurs have swap rights in 2030. Dallas has at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Tim Hardaway Jr. or Richaun Holmes. The Mavs don’t have any large expiring contracts, so that means moving Hardaway or Holmes is the best path toward and upgrade, likely combined with a draft pick or two.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.7 million under the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to trade a first-round pick at this deadline. The Nuggets have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Reggie Jackson. There isn’t a great choice for Denver. They like and need their kids, because they are a source of production on value contracts. Jackson waived his no-trade clause when he re-signed, but the Nuggets seem more like to stand pat at the deadline.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a heavily protected first to New York that may not convey for at least a couple of seasons. The Pistons have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks. We find ourselves here again. Detroit is the worst team in the NBA. They don’t really need these two veteran wings, but they keep hanging onto them. Maybe this is year?

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.6 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Warriors owe a 2024 top-4 protected first-round pick to the Trail Blazers (via the Grizzlies and Celtics). Golden State also owes the Wizards a top-20 protected first-round pick in 2030. The Warriors have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Chris Paul. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have agitated about playing time recently, but Paul’s pseudo-expiring $30.8 million contract is a huge trade chip. This is also the last season the Warriors can take on money in a trade. Maybe they take one more big swing at fortifying their title core.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $22.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.5 million (Kevin Porter Jr.)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston has a couple of first-rounders coming from Brooklyn. They also owe two protected picks to Oklahoma City, and there are swap rights in the mix too. The Rockets should have at least at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Victor Oladipo. There’s little to no chance Oladipo ever suits up in this second run through Houston. His contract was kept specifically as a tradable asset.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $8.3 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pacers also have all of their own first-round picks, plus an additional 2024 pick that will likely be in the mid-to-late 20s. Indiana has at least 10 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bruce Brown or Buddy Hield. This one is semi-easy. Hield asked for a trade on the eve of the season, but has continued to play without causing even the smallest stir. Brown and Hield are also the largest expiring contracts (Brown has a 2024-25 team option) the Pacers will probably put in play via trade. If they make a big move, it’s highly likely Brown and/or Hield will be involved.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $17.3 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers owe two more first-round picks to the Thunder (or 76ers), plus two years of swap rights. They also an additional first-round pick, plus a potential swap to the 76ers. LA has at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: P.J. Tucker. The Clippers haven’t used Tucker as a rotation player since he came over in the James Harden trade. If they make a deal to further fortify their rotation, he’s likely to be involved.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Los Angeles owes New Orleans first-round pick in either 2024 or 2025, pending a Pelicans potential deferment. The Lakers owe a top-4 protected first to Utah in 2027. That means they can really only trade their 2029 first-round pick. Los Angeles has five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: D’Angelo Russell. When Russell waived his right to block a trade by signing a 1+1 deal with the Lakers last summer, it set him up to be trade. His $17.3 million contract is likely to be the best piece of salary-matching Los Angeles has in a trade.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.4 million (Ja Morant – DPE (pending approval)), $7.4 million (Dillon Brooks), $6.3 million (Steven Adams – DPE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks, including favorable swap rights on two picks in 2024 and 2020. Memphis has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Luke Kennard or John Konchar. This one is a little messy, because the wheels have really come off the season for Memphis due to several injuries. If they want to add a younger player, or some draft capital, Kennard could be moved. A smaller deal for Konchar could be likely to bring back a second-round pick or a young player who has washed out elsewhere.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $28,840 under second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.5 million (Victor Oladipo), $7.2 million (Max Strus), $4.7 million (Dewayne Dedmon)

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat owe one lottery-protected first to the Thunder, but own all of their other first-round picks. The Heat have at least two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. This might be cheating, but unless Miami is making a big move, they probably aren’t trading anyone. And big moves are usually something the Heat save for the summer. 

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.1 million over the second tax apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks don’t own any of their own first-round picks outright. From 2024 through 2027, they are controlled by the Pelicans. From 2028 through 2030 they are controlled by the Trail Blazers. Milwaukee has at least two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Bucks have no real tradable salary at the deadline. Any significant salary belongs to rotation players. And the smaller salaries aren’t enough to get Milwaukee any real upgrades. They’ll probably stand pat at the deadline.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.7 million (D’Angelo Russell)

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah three future first-round picks (and one swap), only one of which is lightly protected. Because of the Stepien Rule, the Wolves can’t deal another first. The Timberwolves have four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Shake Milton. The Wolves don’t have a lot of tradable salary that isn’t attached to rotation players. Milton’s $5 million could be a deal to get Minnesota an additional rotation player, as Milton hasn’t filled the bench-scoring role the Wolves had in mind for him.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.9 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own all of their own first-round picks and two extra first-rounders courtesy of the Lakers and Bucks. They also have swap rights on two other years with Milwaukee too. New Orleans has at least two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Kira Lewis Jr. The Pelicans have never paid the tax in franchise history. It’s highly unlikely they’ll break that streak this season. Look for New Orleans to move Lewis in a tax-avoidance trade, probably using a second-round pick to do so.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.8 million (Obi Toppin), $5.2 million (RJ Barrett)

Draft Pick Situation: The Knicks own all of their own first-round picks. They have some extra picks coming their way, but all are encumbered with protections. The most likely picks New York will see will come from Dallas in 2024 and Milwaukee in 2025. It’s unclear if Detroit or Washington will ever convey first-rounders to New York, but they could move them to another team to wait out. The Knicks have at least nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Evan Fournier. If New York makes another big trade before the deadline, Evan Fournier and his $18.8 million pseudo-expiring contract will be involved. If Fournier isn’t traded ahead of the deadline, don’t be surprised if the Knicks pick up their $19 million team option for next season, simply to keep him as a tradable salary for 2024-25.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $12.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has seven extra first-round picks headed their way from a combination of the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, Heat, 76ers and Nuggets. In addition, the Thunder have all of their own first-round picks, or can swap them for better picks in several years. Oklahoma City has at least 21 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Davis Bertans or Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski. Bertans will be involved if the Thunder are making a big move. If it’s a smaller move, Tre Mann or Aleksej Pokusevski could be traded. None are regular rotation players and none have a place in Oklahoma City long-term either.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $34.3 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have an extra first coming from the Nuggets, in addition to all of their own first-round picks. Orlando has at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Chuma Okeke. We could have picked someone flashier like Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris or Jonathan Isaac, which would indicate a big trade. But something smaller like moving Okeke seems to be more likely, if not quite as fun.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.8 million (James Harden)

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers first-round draft picks in the closer-in years are tied up because they owe protected picks to both the Thunder and Nets. In 2028, Philadelphia picks up an extra pick from the LA Clippers, and they have their own picks in 2029 (can swap with LAC 4-30) and 2030. The 76ers have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Covington/Marcus Morris or Furkan Korkmaz. The former pairing will likely be involved if the Sixers pull the trigger on a big trade before the deadline. They combine for over $28.8 million in outgoing salary. If Philadelphia is delaying the big moves to the summer, then look for Furkan Korkmaz to get moved in a tax-avoidance trade.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.9 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Cameron Payne), $4.9 million (Dario Saric)

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix’s draft pick situation is unique and a mess. Every Suns first-round pick is either owed to another team or tied up in complicated swap rights. Phoenix has at least six tradable second-round picks, but it cost them swap rights for several years of first-round picks to acquire them.

Most Likely to be Traded: Nassir Little. There isn’t a great choice for the Suns. Nine players are on minimum contracts and five non-minimum salaries are tied to starters. That leaves Little as the only non-minimum salary that belongs to a non-starter. That makes him the most tradable guy.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $8.8 million (Damian Lillard), $8.3 million (Gary Payton II)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery-protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028, but the pick should likely convey before then, if Portland’s rebuild goes the way they hope. The Trail Blazers have extra first-round picks coming from the Warriors, Bucks and Celtics, plus swap rights in two years with the Bucks. The Blazers have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Malcolm Brogdon. Portland is flush with younger guards and Brogdon could return younger players and/or draft picks to add to the rebuilding stash. If, for some reason, Brogdon isn’t traded by the deadline, look for a deal to come over the summer.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $18.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks, but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. Sacramento has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Davion Mitchell. Sacramento is looking for upgrades and they’ve reportedly offered Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter to teams. But that’s going to be in a pretty big trade. Mitchell has fallen out of the rotation. So, if he’s not part of a bigger deal, the Kings could move him in a smaller deal to get him to a place where he can play.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs own all of their own first-round picks. They have extra protected firsts coming from the Hornets, Raptors and Bulls. They also own two unprotected Hawks first-round picks, and swap rights in separate years with Atlanta, Boston and Dallas. San Antonio has at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Doug McDermott or Cedi Osman. Both veteran players are reportedly on the market. Neither will net a huge return for the Spurs, but could see San Antonio pick up a couple of extra second-round picks.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.4 million (Precious Achiuwa)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owes a protected first-round pick to San Antonio, but owns all the rest of their own first-rounders. The Raptors have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Pascal Siakam. It seems almost inevitable at this point that Siakam is getting moved. The real question: Who else follows him out the door?

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $29.3 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Utah owes one protected pick to Oklahoma City. Beyond that, the Jazz have eight additional first-rounders coming their way, mostly from the Cavaliers, Lakers and Timberwolves. Utah has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Talen Horton-Tucker. If the Jazz do a big deal to add to what has been a surprisingly good team, Horton-Tucker will probably be a part of it. If Utah does some rebalancing and asset-collecting, keep an eye on Kelly Olynyk getting moved.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $21.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.4 million (Kristaps Porzingis), $9.8 million (Monte Morris), $5.4 million (Bradley Beal), $3.5M (Mike Musala)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. They also have the ability to swap several years of picks with the Suns, plus they own a top-20 protected Warriors pick in 2030. Washington as has least 14 tradable second-round picks. 

Most Likely to be Traded: Take your pick. The Wizards are about six months into a long-awaited rebuild. They could trade just about anyone, minus Deni Avdija, Bilal Coulibaly and maybe Corey Kispert. The most likely guys are Tyus Jones or Delon Wright, but don’t be surprised if multiple Wizards get moved.

NBA trade season is picking up about three-and-a-half weeks out from the trade deadline. The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards linked up on a small, but still important deal. Both sides accomplished different things in the deal, but it gives us some insight into the direction both franchises are headed in.

Here are the particulars:

• Detroit Pistons acquire: Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala
• Washington Wizards acquire: Marvin Bagley III, Isaiah Livers, two conditional second-round picks

Both the Pistons and Wizards are bottom-dwellers in the Eastern Conference. It’s likely this trade will have very little on-court impact for either team, at least for the remainder of this season. But this trade sets both up for further moves down the line. Let’s dive in!

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $10.3 million in 2023-24

• Danilo Gallinari (PF/C, one year, $6.8 million)
• Mike Muscala (C, one year, $3.5 million)

Outgoing salary: $14.3 million in 2023-24

• Marvin Bagley III (PF/C, two years, $25 million, $12.5 million in 2023-24)
• Isaiah Livers (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

The Pistons primary objective in this trade was clearing out additional cap space for the 2024 offseason.

Mission accomplished.

Detroit shed the only salary that extends beyond this season in this deal by moving Marvin Bagley III’s $12.5 million salary to Washington. That puts either of the following scenarios in play (without factoring in any other potential trades):

• $50.3 million in cap space – keeping Bojan Bogdanovic on the books for next season

Or

• $66.1 million in cap space – eating a $2 million dead money cap hit for Bogdanovic for next season

That’s what this trade was about for Detroit. They now have the most projected cap space in the NBA in either scenario. The question now becomes: How do the Pistons use that cap space?

During the Troy Weaver era, Detroit has largely used their cap space to eat undesirable salary from other teams while picking up fairly middling assets. Just this past offseason, the Pistons used most of their cap space to take on the contracts of Joe Harris and Monte Morris in salary-clearing deals for the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, respectively. The Pistons return for eating nearly $30 million in salary in those deals? Three second-round picks.

However, things seem to be pointing in a different direction for Detroit now. Whether it’s impatience or trying to take advantage of an uncertain marketplace, the Pistons seem poised to add players who will actually be expected to deliver on the court. And it’s probably going to happen in the next six months between now and the February 8 trade deadline or this summer.

With somewhere between $50 and $66 million to spend next summer, the Pistons are in play to either sign free agents or make trades in July. Detroit could also do a form of “pre-agency” and make a trade now that uses up some of their future flexibility.

Being realistic, there isn’t a trade the Pistons could make before the deadline that would fix this current season. Things are too far gone for that. But Weaver could make a deal, or two or three, that sets Detroit up for the future with win-now (now being 2024-25, of course!) players. The key? Don’t get silly with trading assets, whether they be young players or future draft picks. That’s true leading up to the deadline or this summer.

The Pistons still have plenty of matching salary they can send out in trades. Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Monte Morris and James Wiseman are over $72 million in easily-tradeable expiring (or pseudo-expiring in the case of Bogdanovic) salary. Detroit could also be about $2.5 million under the cap after this deal (pending how they structure the trade, the Pistons could create a mid-sized trade exception), which gives them a bit more wiggle room, if needed, in any potential trades.

So, let’s say Zach LaVine’s trade market is really as barren as reports suggest, Detroit could theoretically sneak in and grab him by sending the Bulls some expiring salary for veteran players. In theory, Chicago could be looking to reset their cap sheet a bit, while also adding reinforcements for a postseason push. If the Pistons grease the skids by offering up a single first-round pick, in addition to two or three vets, is that enough to push a deal through? We don’t know that answer, but that’s the sort of thing Detroit could be looking at doing right now. In the summer, trade options will expand even more.

On the court, the direct impact from this trade is pretty negligible. Gallinari has largely fallen out of the Wizards rotation over the last few weeks. In his age-35 season, Gallinari looks like he’s near the end. He can’t move the way he once did on defense, and defense was never his strength in the first place. Gallinari is also shooting only 31% on three-pointers this season.

One thing to keep mind: Gallinari’s agent is Michael Tellem, who is the son of Pistons executive Arn Tellem. Gallinari is a prime buyout candidate. There’s a good chance he works a deal to get set free before even suiting up in Detroit. Because he’s only making $6.8 million this season, Gallinari would be eligible to join any team after a buyout as some veteran frontcourt depth.

Muscala is in a somewhat similar situation, in that he’s a veteran frontcourt player who might not offer much to the Pistons. However, Muscala is a few years younger than Gallinari and history shows he has some value as a stretch five. He could stick in Detroit to give them a shooting center to plug into the rotation with Jalen Duren and James Wiseman.

As for what Detroit gave up, we have to start with Bagley. Giving up two second-round picks to shed Bagley’s salary is an admission that signing him to a fully-guaranteed three-year $37.5 million contract was a mistake. At the time, it seemed like the Pistons were bidding against themselves. That’s only become clearer over the last season-and-a-half.

Bagley hasn’t been bad this season, especially on offense. He’s shooting a career-high 59% from the field, and he’s averaging 10.2 points. But Bagley’s lack of shooting range (he’s all but stopped taking threes) makes him a poor fit next to the Pistons centers. That limits him to backup duty behind Duren, and even that’s inconsistent with Wiseman still around.

Mostly, Detroit made a mistake in paying Bagley what they did. It wasn’t a crushing one by any means, but it was still salary that could have been better spent elsewhere. That’s now rectified at the cost of a couple second-round picks.

Livers never really built on the promise he showed as a rookie. In that first season, Livers looked like he could be a swing forward with a good three-point shot. Since then, he’s shot worse in each of the next two seasons, and Livers hasn’t improved as a defender or rebounder.

One minor part of this trade that could be getting a little overlooked is that Troy Weaver removed a couple of clubs from Monty Williams’ bag. Instead of throwing minutes (and, worse, starts!) to Bagley or Livers, Williams will now be forced to play other players instead. It’s the equivalent of the “Can’t play Pena” trade from the film version of Moneyball.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $14.3 million in 2023-24

• Marvin Bagley III (PF/C, two years, $25 million, $12.5 million in 2023-24)
• Isaiah Livers (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $10.3 million in 2023-24

• Danilo Gallinari (PF/C, one year, $6.8 million)
• Mike Muscala (C, one year, $3.5 million)

Washington’s side of this trade is less intriguing. But it still gives us some hints of where the Wizards might be headed.

Washington took on about $4 million in salary this season, but they are miles under the luxury tax anyway. The bigger, and more interesting thing, is that the Wizards took on $12.5 million next year. That amount takes Washington from being a projected cap space team at around $25 million to functioning as an over-the-cap team in 2024.

Now, the Wizards have been clear that they are playing the long game in rebuilding. So, this was mostly about getting a couple of second-round picks. Bagley is also young enough that perhaps there is some late-bloomer upside still there if you squint hard enough. Washington has also been dreadfully thin at the five behind Daniel Gafford this season. Bagley gives them a little cover there, and potentially even more cover if Gafford himself is traded.

Livers enters a pretty crowded forward/wing rotation in Washington. He’s not going to play over Kyle Kuzma or Deni Avdija, who have started for the Wizards all season. Livers also is behind Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert, who are former first-rounders and part of Washington’s future.

If it feels like this is kind of a sideways trade for the Wizards, that’s probably true. The second-rounders they have coming to them are tied up with all kinds of swap conditions. That means it’s not even fully clear what they’ll have there. But by taking on Bagley’s $12.5 million for 2024-25, it’s a sign that Washington isn’t planning any quick fixes by using cap space next summer.

Maybe the next trade, or two or three, swing that back in the other direction. But, for now, it looks like Washington is committed to a slower rebuild. And that’s ok, given how long the franchise sat stuck in the middle. It’s also a sign that Michael Winger and crew aren’t done with shuffling players in and out of the nation’s capital. The Wizards likely have an active few weeks ahead of them before the February 8 trade deadline.