NFL Contract Extension & Release Candidates

Michael GinnittiNovember 16, 2017

MLB Team by Team Offseason Previews

Michael GinnittiNovember 13, 2017

Projecting Market Values for MLB's Top Free Agents

Michael GinnittiNovember 07, 2017
mlb free agency contract projections market values

The Underpaid MLB 2017 Award Candidates

Michael GinnittiNovember 05, 2017

National League MVP

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies
2017 Salary: $11,750,000 (63th)
187 hits, 100 runs, 43 doubles, 37 homers, 130 RBIs, and a .309/.373/.586 slashline. He's the favorite in the clubhouse. Contractually, he holds a $17.75M salary in 2018 and then another arbitration-eligible year in 2019. Colorado may consider a long-term extension for the annual MVP candidate, who holds a calculated market value of $26.5M. 

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
2017 Salary: $8,750,000 (84th)
166 hits, 117 runs, 34 doubles, 36 homers, 120 RBIs, and a .297/.404/.563 slashline. Arguably the most underpaid player in MLB the past 4 seasons, Goldschmidt will earn $11M in 2018, and holds a $14.5M club option for 2019. His calculated market value currently stands at $28.1M - but he could easily be in the discussion to match or exceed Miguel Cabrera's current $31M price.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
2017 Salary: $14,500,000 (41st)
168 hits, 123 runs, 32 doubles, 59 homers, 132 RBIs, and a .281/.376/.631 slashline. Stanton has $295M remaining on his contract thru 2028, but can opt-out after the 2020 season. His 2018 salary jumps to $25M, on par with his production over the past 2 seasons. 

 

American League MVP

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
2017 Salary: $4,500,000 (136th)
204 hits, 112 runs, 39 doubles, 24 homers, 91 RBIs, 32 stolen bases, and a .346/.410/.547 slashline. Altuve is the epitomy of the complete player and has reeled in an incredibly team-friendly $12.5M over the past 4 seasons. He's set to earn $6M in 2018, and Houston holds a $6.5M club option in 2019, but his near $29M calculated market value suggests he's in for quite the pay raise sooner than later. 

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
2017 Salary: $544,500 (337th)
154 hits, 128 runs, 24 doubles, 52 homers, 114 RBIs, and a .284/.422/.627 slashline. It's quite an impressive haul for his first full year, and it's a shame that he'll likely fall short here to Altuve's magical season. Judge won't even be arbitraton-eligible until the 2020 season and won't find free agency until 2023. His financial value (along with a few others) should have the Yankees in contention for at least the next few seasons.

Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians
2017 Salary: $579,300 (267th)
178 hits, 99 runs, 44 doubles, 33 homers, 89 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, and a .273/.337/.505 slash. Lindor and Jose Ramirez led the Indians down a magical stretch into the postseason, and should continue that trend for the better part of 5 more seasons. Lindor holds pre-arbitration status in 2018 before 3 years of arbitration-eligibility kick in (free agency in 2022). He'll likely make slightly more than the league minimum next season. 

 

National League MVP

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies
2017 Salary: $11,750,000 (63th)
187 hits, 100 runs, 43 doubles, 37 homers, 130 RBIs, and a .309/.373/.586 slashline. He's the favorite in the clubhouse. Contractually, he holds a $17.75M salary in 2018 and then another arbitration-eligible year in 2019. Colorado may consider a long-term extension for the annual MVP candidate, who holds a calculated market value of $26.5M. 

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
2017 Salary: $8,750,000 (84th)
166 hits, 117 runs, 34 doubles, 36 homers, 120 RBIs, and a .297/.404/.563 slashline. Arguably the most underpaid player in MLB the past 4 seasons, Goldschmidt will earn $11M in 2018, and holds a $14.5M club option for 2019. His calculated market value currently stands at $28.1M - but he could easily be in the discussion to match or exceed Miguel Cabrera's current $31M price.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
2017 Salary: $14,500,000 (41st)
168 hits, 123 runs, 32 doubles, 59 homers, 132 RBIs, and a .281/.376/.631 slashline. Stanton has $295M remaining on his contract thru 2028, but can opt-out after the 2020 season. His 2018 salary jumps to $25M, on par with his production over the past 2 seasons. 

 

American League MVP

Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
2017 Salary: $4,500,000 (136th)
204 hits, 112 runs, 39 doubles, 24 homers, 91 RBIs, 32 stolen bases, and a .346/.410/.547 slashline. Altuve is the epitomy of the complete player and has reeled in an incredibly team-friendly $12.5M over the past 4 seasons. He's set to earn $6M in 2018, and Houston holds a $6.5M club option in 2019, but his near $29M calculated market value suggests he's in for quite the pay raise sooner than later. 

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
2017 Salary: $544,500 (337th)
154 hits, 128 runs, 24 doubles, 52 homers, 114 RBIs, and a .284/.422/.627 slashline. It's quite an impressive haul for his first full year, and it's a shame that he'll likely fall short here to Altuve's magical season. Judge won't even be arbitraton-eligible until the 2020 season and won't find free agency until 2023. His financial value (along with a few others) should have the Yankees in contention for at least the next few seasons.

Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians
2017 Salary: $579,300 (267th)
178 hits, 99 runs, 44 doubles, 33 homers, 89 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, and a .273/.337/.505 slash. Lindor and Jose Ramirez led the Indians down a magical stretch into the postseason, and should continue that trend for the better part of 5 more seasons. Lindor holds pre-arbitration status in 2018 before 3 years of arbitration-eligibility kick in (free agency in 2022). He'll likely make slightly more than the league minimum next season. 

 

National League Cy Young

Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals
2017: $15,000,000 (22nd)
200.2 IP, 268 Ks, a 2.51 ERA, .902 WHIP, with a 16-6 win/loss record. Scherzer is in line for his 3rd Cy Young in 5 years, an unprecedented feat. His current contract has 4 years, $60M remaining on it, but Scherzer will then earn $15M a year from 2022 - 2028 in deferred payments. He's been worth every penny.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
2017 Salary: $33,000,000 (1st)
175 IP, 202 Ks, a 2.31 ERA, .949 WHIP with an 18-4 record. Kershaw battled through a back injury down the stretch that limited his numbers a bit, but his resume still speaks for itself. The highest paid player in MLB held up to the title again in 2017. He's set to reel in $33M in 2018, then holds an opt-out clause that would void his remaining 2 years, $65M. The 29-year-old holds a $34M calculated market value.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
2017 Salary: $15,000,000 (23rd)
175 IP, 204 Ks, a 2.72 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, with a 15-4 win/loss record. When healthy, Strasburg is as deadly as anyone in the game. He's locked in for another $15M in 2018, $35M in 2019, then can opt-out after both the 2019 and the 2020 season.

 

American League Cy Young

Corey Kluber, SP, Indians
2017 Salary: $7,500,000 (62nd)
203 IP, 265 Ks, a 2.25 ERA, .869 WHIP, with an 18-4 win/loss record. Kluber was both dominant, and consistent yet again in 2017 putting him on track for his 2nd Cy Young award in 5 seasons. Contractually the Indians hold salaries of $10.5M, $13M, and club options of $15M/$15.5M through 2021 - all bargains in comparison to his production, and his $33.7M calculated market value.

Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox
2017 Salary: $12,000,000 (37th)
214 IP, 308 Ks, a 2.90 ERA, .970 WHIP, with a 17-8 win/loss record. Sale battled Kluber hard down the stretch, and still might snag this award in the end. The Red Sox already exercised his $12.5M salary for 2018, and will likely do the same with his $15M option in 2019. These numbers pale in comparison to his $31M calculated market value.

Luis Severino, SP, Yankees
2017159 Salary: $550,975 (274th)
193 IP, 230 Ks, a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, with a 14-6 win/loss record. Severino appears to be the young ace the Yankees have been in search of and remains under team control in 2018 before arbitration-eligibility kicks in (free agent in 2022). Barring an unlikely extension Severino will make a bit more than the league minimum ($545,000) in 2018.

 

National League Rookie of the Year

Cody Bellinger, 1B, Dodgers
2017 Salary: $535,000 (405th)
128 hits, 87 runs, 26 doubles, 39 homers, 97 RBIs, and a .267/.352/.581 slash line. Bellinger broke out in a big way for the runner-up Dodgers, and appears to be the young bat they'll look to for the next decade. He'll be under team control through 2019, arbitration-eligible through 2023, and set to hit free agency in 2024.

Josh Bell, 1B, Pirates
2017 Salary: $549,000 (311th)
140 hits, 75 runs, 26 doubles, 26 homers, 90 RBIs, and a .255/.334/.466 slashline. Bell flew somewhat under the radar amidst flashier performances, but still had an outstanding 2017 campaign in Pittsburgh. He's under team control through 2019, arbitration-eligible through 2022, and on track for free agency in 2023.

Paul DeJong, 3B, Cardinals
2017: $535,000 (405th)
119 hits, 55 runs, 26 doubles, 25 homers, 65 RBIs, .285/.325/.532 slashline in just 417 at bats. DeJong carried the Cardinals offense down the stretch, keeping them within range. A full season in 2018 will be must see. He's under team control through 2020, arbitration-eligible through 2023 and on track for free agency in 2024.

 

American League Rookie of the Year

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
2017 Salary: $544,500 (337th)
154 hits, 128 runs, 24 doubles, 52 homers, 114 RBIs, and a .284/.422/.627 slashline. While he'll likely concede the MVP to Altuve, Judge should be a lock for AL ROY.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox
2017 Salary: $549,000 (312th)
155 hits, 84 runs, 26 doubles, 20 homers, 90 RBIs, 20 stolen bases, .271/.352/.424 slashline. Boston may have been hoping for a little more power this year, but the numbers across the board are impressive for the 23-year-old. He's under team control theough 2019, arbitration-eligible through 2022, and on track for free agency in 2023.

Trey Mancini, OF, Orioles
2017 Salary: $536,000 (400th)
159 hits, 65 runs, 26 doubles, 24 homers, 78 RBIs, .293/.338/.488 slashline. Somewhat underrated on a lackluster, Mancini remained a consistent threat in the lineup throughout 2017. He'll be a building block going forward in Baltimore, under team control through 2019, arbitration through 2022, on track for 2023 free agency.

 

The Future Financial Health of the Houston Astros

Michael GinnittiNovember 02, 2017

The Houston Astros are only a few hours removed from the final out that secure their 2017 World Series win, but many are already looking ahead to next year's ring - and maybe even the year after that as well. The truth is these weren't a group of seasoned, expensive veterans looking for a ring before they ride off into the sunset. The World Series champs are young, hungry, and still a baseball bargain on the field - which is exactly how they planned this. 

We'll take a look ahead at the contract status for each notable Astros player as MLB flips the switch to the offseason.

Related: A Multi-Year look at the Astros Payroll 

 

The Rotation

These six accounted for just $27.7M in 2017 payroll. If all return, that number will push to near $50M in 2018. Houston is paying $20M of Verlander's $28M salary next year, and may consider a short extension thereafter should he continue to produce for them in the upcoming season. Keuchel's contract will be a major focus this winter, as his arbitration salary will certainly rise into 8 digits. 

PlayerAgeStatus2018 SalaryNotes
Justin Verlander 34 Signed $20,000,000 Signed through 2019 with a vesting option in 2020.
Dallas Keuchel 28 Arb. 3 $12,500,000 (est.) UFA in 2019, extension candidate
Lance McCullers  23 Arb. 1 $2,000,000 (est.) Arbitration through 2021, UFA in 2022
Charlie Morton 33 Signed $7,000,000 UFA in 2019
Brad Peacock 28 Arb. 2 $2,700,000 (est) Arbitration through 2021, UFA in 2022
Collin McHugh 29 Arb. 2 $4,800,000 (est) Arbitration through 2019, UFA in 2020
      $49,000,000  

 

The Bullpen

The Astros will look to add some depth to the middle of their bullpen this winter, but their big players are all under control for at least 4 more season. It's also likely that one of the starters (McHugh) lands in the bullpen for the majority of the season. But it's expected Houston will spend the majority of its free agent/trade assets in this area.

PlayerAgeStatus2018 SalaryNotes
Ken Giles 26 Arb. 1 $4,000,000 (est) Arbitration through 2020, UFA in 2021
Joe Musgrove 23 TC $545,000 (est) Team control through 2019, Arbitration through 2022
Chris Devenski 25 TC $600,000 (est.) Team control through 2018, Arbitration through 2021
Will Harris 32 Signed $2,800,000 $5.5M club option in 2019
Tony Sipp 33 Signed $6,000,000 UFA in 2019
Michael Fiers 31 Arb. 2 $5,100,000 (est.) Arbitration through 2019, UFA in 2020
Michael Feliz 23 TC $545,000 Team control through 2018, Arbitration through 2021
Francisco Liriano 33     Free Agent
Luke Gregerson 32     Free Agent
Tyler Clippard 31     Free Agent
      $19,590,000  


The Lineup

Outside of Beltran, who may walk off into the sunset with his ring, each everyday Astros player is either signed or under team control for 2018. Houston will need to decide where and how to spend their money this offseason, as a few of these players are certainly deserving of long-term extensions (Altuve, Springer, Gonzalez). 

PlayerAgePosStatus2018 SalaryNotes
Brian McCann 32 C Signed $11,500,000 Signed through 2018 with a vesting option in 2019.
Evan Gattis 30 C/DH Arb. 3 $6,200,000 (est.) Arbitration through 2018, UFA in 2019.
Yulieski Gurriel 32 1B Signed $12,400,000 Signed through 2020.
Jose Altuve 26 2B Signed $6,000,000 Signed through 2019, extension candidate
Carlos Correa 22 SS TC $545,000 (est.) Team Control through 2018, Arbitration through 2021.
Alex Bregman 22 3B TC $545,000 (est.) Team Control through 2019, Arbitration through 2022.
Josh Reddick 29 OF Signed $13,000,000 Signed through 2020.
George Springer 27 OF Arb. 2 $9,000,000 (est.) Arbitration through 2019, UFA in 2020, extension candidate.
Marwin Gonzalez 27 OF Signed $5,125,000 UFA in 2019, extension candidate
Derek Fisher 23 OF TC $545,000 (est.) Team Control through
Jake Marisnick 25 OF Arb. 2 $2,000,000 (est.) Arbitration through 2019, UFA in 2020.
Cameron Maybin 29 OF     Free Agent
Carlos Beltran 39 DH     Free Agent
        $66,686,000  
houston astros mlb payroll 2018

Financially Assessing the 2017 NFL Trade Deadline

Michael GinnittiNovember 01, 2017

BILLS ACQUIRE WR KELVIN BENJAMIN

The Bills and Panthers offered a surprise finish to the 2017 NFL Trade Deadline, as Carolina sent their former #1 pick Kelvin Benjamin north to Buffalo. Benjamin brings with him a modest $529,411 salary for the remainder of 2017, and an $8.459M 5th-year option in 2018. He leaves behind $1.9M in dead cap to the Panthers, who clearly had no intentions of extending the #28 overall selection in 2014. The Bills now have 6 wide receivers on their active roster for a combined $5.3M in cap; incredible value as they push toward the playoffs for the first time since cellphones had color screens.

 
 

49ERS ACQUIRE QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO

In what will certainly go down as the surprise move of the week, the Patriots shipped backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the winless 49ers in return for a 2nd round pick in 2018. Garoppolo will likely take the starting reigns in the next few weeks, hoping to establish himself as the QB of the future in SF. His rookie contract will expire after 2017, meaning the 49ers will need to extend or franchise tag Garoppolo to keep him in the fold.

Garoppolo brings over just $434,158 in salary for the remainder of the 2017 season, which barely puts a dent in the $60M+ cap space the Niners have built up in the past few months. A 2018 franchise tag is likely to represent a salary north of $23M based on current salary cap projections. In terms of a long-term extension, it’s always tough to evaluate players with such small resumes (225 snaps, 94 pass attempts), but there have been two backup quarterbacks in recent term who were signed via free agency to compete for a starting role elsewhere:

 Including projected rollover from this year, the 49ers appear inline to own more than $100M in salary cap space for the 2018 season.

 

SEAHAWKS ACQUIRE OT DUANE BROWN

With Russell Wilson and co. finally breaking out of their funk and the defense as stout as ever, the Seahawks addressed their one glaring need in acquiring Duane Brown from the Houston Texans. Seattle takes on a $4,976,471 salary for the remainder of 2017, and for now, a $9.75M salary in 2018 – though reports have come out that a new deal is forthcoming. Because of his holdout, the Texans are only on the hook for one week of pay, or $552,941 in dead cap.

Houston was set to receive CB  Jeremy Lane, a 2018 5th round pick, and a 2019 2nd round pick - but Lane failed his physically, voiding the compensation. When finalized, Houston sent a 5th round pick next year to Seattle, receiving a 3rd round pick in 2018, and a 2nd round pick in 2019 in return. 

So the Seahawks add $4.9M in new that will be offset by a salary restructure from QB Russell Wilson - and a move still to come.

  

JAGUARS ACQUIRE DT MARCELL DAREUS

The Jaguars made a clear statement to the NFL world that they are all in with their 4-3 start for the 2017. The Bills signed Dareus to a 6 year, $96.5M contract back in 2015, which including a $25M signing bonus, a $7M 2nd-year bonus, and $26M in guaranteed salaries through the 2018 season. The trade leaves Buffalo with dead cap hits of $10.6M in 2017, and $14.2M in 2018, which represents cap savings of $5.7M/$2.375M respectively.

Dareus brings salaries of $5.7M, $10.1M, $11.5M, $14.6M, and $14.65M with him to Jacksonville. It’s important to note that the $7.35M guaranteed to him in 2018 are the last guarantees on the deal, meaning the Jaguars can cut ties with Marcell after 2018 for $0 in dead cap.

Including rollovers, he Bills currently stand with just north of $40M in 2018, while the Jaguars sit with around $33M.

  

EAGLES ACQUIRE RB JAY AJAYI

The Eagles solidified their stance atop the NFC by acquiring RB Jay Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins in return for a 4th round pick in 2018. The former 5th-rounder was playing on a mininmum $615,000 salary. He brings $325,588 of that with him to Philly, leaving dead cap hits of $344,614 & $55,204 to the Dolphins in 2017/2018. His $705,000 salary/cap figure for 2018 should be great value for the Eagles.

 

JETS ACQUIRE CB RASHARD ROBINSON

In one of the quieter moves, the New York Jets brought in cornerback Rashard Robinson from the 49ers. San Francisco drafted him in the 4th round back in 2016, and they’ll gain a 5th round selection next year for the trade. Robinson brings salaries of $285k, $630,000, & $720,000 to New York, with 0 dead cap to go with it.

 
 

CARDINALS ACQUIRE RB ADRIAN PETERSON

The Cardinals got the trade season off to a fast start when they acquiring Peterson from the Saints, who had little to no role through the first few weeks of 2017. New Orleans takes on dead cap hits of $1.5M in 2017, & $1.25M in 2018 for Peterson’s 5 weeks with the club, while the Cardinals acquire salaries of $705,882 in 2017, & $3.5M in 2018.
 
Should the Cardinals want to move on from Peterson after 2017, they’ll have to do so before the 3rd league day of 2018, when a $750,000 roster bonus is due. Until then, Peterson holds no dead cap for 2018. Arizona may be in for a major rebuild next season.

nfl trades dead cap

Value Grading Notable 2017 NFL Free Agents

Michael GinnittiOctober 26, 2017

The 2017 World Series Rosters, Financially

Michael GinnittiOctober 23, 2017

2017-18 NBA Opening Day Roster Payrolls

Michael GinnittiOctober 17, 2017

Join our 2017-18 NBA Fantasy Contest

Michael GinnittiOctober 11, 2017
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