Scott AllenJanuary 31, 2025

NEW FACES & NEW TEAMS

NOAH GRAGSON (#4, FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Noah Gragson finds a full-time ride with Front Row Motorsports to drive the #4 car.

JUSTIN HALEY (#7, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

After locking in a multi-year contract to drive for Rick Ware Racing in 2024, Justin Haley now finds himself driving the #7 car for Spire Motorsports.

TY DILLON (#10, KAULIG RACING)

After being part-time in Cup in 2023, he finds himself with a full-time ride in the #10 car with Kauling Racing.

AJ ALLMENDINGER (#16, KAULIG RACING)

Allmendinger drove full-time in the Xfinity series last season after being full-time in Cup in 2023. He comes back to full-time cup with Kauling Racing and typically is the guy to watch on the road courses. But will his success be mitigated by Shave van Gisbergen driving full-time in Cup as well as other drivers continuing to excel in road courses?

CHASE BRISCOE (#19, JOE GIBBS RACING)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Martin Truex Jr retired. Chase Briscoe was giving the nod by Joe Gibbs Racing to slide into the #19 car. The question will be…how fast can Briscoe adapt to a new team, new manufacturer and will be he able to excel in with superior ownership?

JOSH BERRY (#21, WOOD BROTHERS)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Harrison Burton out. Josh Berry in as the new #21 driver for Wood Brothers in their 75th anniversary season.

TODD GILLILAND (#34, FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS)

With the exit of Michael McDowell to Spire Motorsports, Todd Gilliland slides into the #34 car for Front Row Motorsports.

RILEY HERBST (#35, 23XI)

23XI has acquired a third chartered car from Stewart-Haas Racing. Riley Herbst received the nod to join Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick, and will drive the #35 car (a mashup of 23 and 45 numbers).

ZANE SMITH (#38, FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS)

With Todd Gilliland sliding into the #34 car after McDowell exited, Zane Smith joined Front Row Motorsports to drive the #38 car.

COLE CUSTER (#41, HAAS FACTORY TEAM)

Stewart-Haas Racing folded. Haas Factory Team was created. Cole Custer returns to a full-time position to drive the #41 car.

RYAN PREECE (#60, RFK RACING)

RFK is running a third full-time car for the first time. Ryan Preece will drive the #60 car for RFK along side Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher. 

MICHAEL MCDOWELL (#71, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

Michael McDowell made the biggest splash of silly season by moving from Front Row Motorsports to Spire Motorsports to drive the #71 car.

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN (#88, TRACKHOUSE RACING)

Trackhouse Racing brings Shane van Gisbergen full-time after getting experience full-time in Xfinitiy last season. We know he’s a road course ringer, but the big question is how well will he keep up on the ovals with the veteran drivers.

2025 SCHEDULE & PAYOUTS

While NASCAR does not directly disclose race payouts, Bob Pockrass of FOX Sports disclosed the purses for each race week for the 2024 season, so we are able to gain an estimate of what each race’s purse is likely to be in 2025. Pockrass starts every post with a disclaimer that results in the following: “Includes all payouts, all positions, including charter per-race payout and payouts based on previous three year history of charter, contribution to season-ending points fund, etc.”

While it’s no surprise that the Dayton 500 tips the scales as far as payouts are concerned, you can quickly see where the emphasis is on highest purse payouts during a season: COTA, Charlotte, Indianapolis and Phoenix (Championship). 

 Side note: The All-Star race winner receives $1 million. 

2025 NASCAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Joe Logano’s odds to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Championship were +1200. The remaining final four drivers had odds of Ryan Blaney (+550), William Byron (+550) and Tyler Reddick (+1400)

The following are the 2025 NASCAR Championship odds courtesy of FanDuel.

BEST VALUE CHAMPIONSHIP PICK

Ford has won the last three Championships. I think this season will see a swing back to a Toyota or Chevrolet winning the championship in 2025. 

You can never count out Kyle Larson or Ryan Blaney. Logano made the playoffs in an even-year last year, so if trends continue he’ll miss it this year. 

Christopher Bell, William Byron and Denny Hamlin are looking for their first championship, but unless you are dead-set on one of them winning the championship the odds are just okay with them being in the top-5 odds.

Tyler Reddick at +950 aren’t bad odds if you think he can repeat his 2024 performance and return to the final four with a chance to win the championship. 

The last two NASCAR Champions were +1000 and +1200 in the odds. By that logic, Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe could be in play if the trend continues. Chase Briscoe could potentially win multiple races in 2025 with the new team, new manufacture; the talent is there for sure, but time will tell how that will play out. Chase Elliott had the best average finish in 2024 after having a messy 2023 season and I think he’s starting to figure out this nextgen car to a point where I think he’ll be the car to beat in 2025. 

My pick: Chase Elliott 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

There are two Rookie of the Year candidates for the 2025 season: Riley Herbst and Shane van Gisbergen

RILEY HERBST (#35, 23XI)

Riley Herbst ended up 7th in points and had an average finish of 14.8 in the Xfinity series last season. He had an average finish of 32.3 through 4 races in the Cup series in 2024. 

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN (#88, TRACKHOUSE RACING)

Shane van Gisbergen ended up 12th in points and an average finish of 16.5 in the Xfinity series last season and is likely to win one or more of the road courses during the Cup season. Van Gisbergen ended up with an average finish of 22.8 through 12 races in the Cup series in 2024. 

Herbst is an up-and-coming driver and well deserved of the Cup ride, but I believe with the racing experience van Gisbergen has overall, including his twelve Cup races last season and his road course expertise will allow him to finish the season with a better average finish.

My pick: Shane van Gisbergen

DARK HORSE OF THE YEAR

CARSON HOCEVAR (#77, SPIRE MOTORSPORTS)

Last season my dark horse pick was Ty Gibbs. While Gibbs did not win any races in 2024, he made the playoffs, had 8 top-5s and 12 top-10 and had an average finish of 17.4. I do believe Gibbs will take another step forward in 2025, but to not be redundant from last season I’m going with Carson Hocevar as a Dark Horse of the year. While I do not think Carson will vie for the championship and will likely not make the playoffs I do believe he’ll make strides in 2025. He will have Michael McDowell and Justin Haley as teammates. Hocevar ended up in 21st for points and had an average finish of 18.3, right behind the likes of Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace. If Hocevar can continue to chip away at that average finish he may find himself just outside of the playoff bubble with an opportunity to make the playoffs if a couple dominoes fall his way. 

Taylor VincentJanuary 30, 2025

Today FIFA published its breakdown of the 2024 women’s soccer global transfer report. 2024 showed another year of record growth with $15.6 million spent on international transfers—more than double the $6.1 million spent in 2023. 2024 also saw a 20.8% increase in the total number of international transfers going from 1,890 in 2023 to 2,284. There was also an increase in the number of transfers with fees up to 8.7%. 


Image 1: Spending on transfer fees and number of clubs with fees, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

The Summer transfer window, which overlaps with the traditional european schedule offseason and the NWSL’s midseason window saw almost 60% of all transfers and spending with a peak in April as the NWSL’s primary window was coming to a close. 


Image 2: Distribution of number of transfers and spending on transfer fees across the year in 2024, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

The majority of transfers (84.6%) were for players who were out of contract–free agents–and almost all of the international transfer money was spent on players making permanent transfers 


Image 3: Distribution of number of transfers and value of transfer fees by transfer type, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

The number of transfers which included a sell-on fee increased in 2024, with 92 of the transfers including such a clause. Although it increased almost 70% compared to 2023, at 30.8% it is still well below the levels in men’s football, which are close to reaching 50%. 

Although the FIFA report does report the top five transfer fees of the year across the globe, there is no transparency into official numbers past what writers are able to report. 


Image 4: Top five transfers by size of transfer fee (2024), 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

The average length of international transfers was 14.9 months for 2024, with most contracts lasting between six and 12 months. Only 2.3% of contracts were over three years. In a similar trend to the men’s professional landscape, younger players were the most likely to receive the longest contracts with players under 18 averaging contracts of 29.1 months, and then a solid dropoff in the 18-23 bracket with average contracts around 16.2 months. 


Image 5: Distribution of contract duration in international transfers, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

With 131 different nationalities involved, the United States had the most players transferred internationally (246 transfers), with Brazil (121), United Kingdom (104), Colombia (98), and Nigeria (77) rounding out the top five. 


Image 6: Player nationality by number of international transfers in 2024, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

At $1.9 million, Brazilian players accounted for the highest spending on transfers fees in 2024, followed by Zambia ($1.6 million), Sweden ($1.3 million), France ($900k), and Spain ($700k). Forty-Five of the 131 nationalities involved in a transfer had at least one player transferred for a fee. 

Looking at all of the transfers in 2024, a little over 60% were between clubs in the same confederation with almost 43% occurring between two clubs in UEFA (European Federation). Players moving from Europe to Concacaf (USA, Mexico, Canada, etc) were the second-largest with 156 transfers. 


Image 7: Number of transfers between and within confederations, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

UEFA clubs account for over half of all spending on transfer fees, with over $8 million spent in 2024, Concacaf clubs spent the second highest amount, with almost $7 million spent. Most of the transfer fees went to clubs in UEFA – 73%, equalling $11.2 million. 

The United States had the most incoming transfers with 184, with the top five rounded out by Spain (120), England (117), Sweden (92), and Germany (79). England was the country with the most outgoing transfers with 123, followed by Spain (119), United States (107), Sweden (86), and Turkey (85). In 2024, 87 associations had at least one incoming transfer and 129 had at least one outgoing transfer. 

As far as spending goes, clubs from the United States were the biggest spenders ($5.8 million), with England ($4.5 million), Spain ($1.4 million), Mexico ($1.1 million), and Italy ($0.6 million) following behind. In terms of receiving, Spain let the way with $2.6 million coming into its clubs. England had the second most at $1.9 million, followed by Sweden ($1.5 million), Brazil ($1.4 million), and France ($1.4 million). 


Image 8:Top three transfer streams by number of transfers and spending on transfer fees, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

There were 695 clubs involved in international transfers, the top twenty spending clubs in 2024 included eight of the 14 NWSL clubs, with Bay FC top across the globe. Orlando was fourth, followed by Houston in fifth. Utah, Portland, and North Carolina were eight, tenth, and eleventh respectively. Seattle (thirteenth) and Washington (fifteenth), round of the NWSL’s positions in the table. 


Image 9: Top 20 clubs by spending on transfer fees, 2024 FIFA Global Transfer Report

 

Taylor VincentJanuary 29, 2025

All 14 NWSL teams have officially started their preseasons and have submitted their initial rosters to the league — requiring 40-player compliant rosters. With all teams at their maximum roster compliance of 26 signed active players, there are 364 positions to be filled in the NWSL. Currently, there are 353 players under contract for the 2025 season—including 2024 SEI’s, but not players currently out on loan. 

There are 54 non-rostered invitees (NRIs) who have joined squads in the preseason looking to earn one of the remaining coveted positions. The league is averaging almost 4 NRI’s per team, even taking into account San Diego, Washington, and Gotham not having any NRI’s with them. 

Team Breakdowns

Note: All roster breakdowns do not include players who are under contract but currently out on loan, but they do include the 2024 SEI players. 

Angel City FC

2024 Finish: 12th

With the league low of 21 players under contract (19 active, two 2024 SEIs) and only three offseason additions so far, Angel City has room for their current NRI’s to potentially find a home as well as some space for further signings until the primary transfer window closes toward the end of March. 

Bay FC

2024 Finish: 7th

Heading into their second season, Bay has 24 players under contract (23 active, one 2024 SEI), and 22 of those returning from the inaugural season. Their one NRI right now is forward Catherine Paulson who played with the squad as a national team replacement player in 2024. 

Chicago Stars

2024 Finish: 8th

Chicago has 26 players under contract (24 active, two 2024 SEI). The five defenders do look a bit scary, especially when you consider that one of those is Sam Staab, who has yet to come off the 2024 SEI list. Chicago has the fewest number of defenders signed of any team, it will be interesting to see who–if any of the midfielders potentially slot back into the defense to add much needed depth. 

Houston Dash

2024 Finish: 14th

After a very rough 2024 season, the Houston Dash had a busy (and successful) offseason targeting NWSL players who have proven themselves to be impactful in the league. The real question will be whether newly appointed head coach Fabrice Gautrat will be able to instill a cohesive identity in the squad. Reminder: From 2021 to 2023, the team who finished the regular season last ended up making the playoffs in the following year. 

Kansas City Current

2024 Finish: 4th

Kansas City is the only team to not have any players returning in a single position, with a complete turnover in their goalkeeper union. The Current have 26 players under contract for the upcoming season (23 active, three 2024 SEI). After the on-field cohesion the team showed throughout the season, it isn't surprising how much of the core field players they returned from 2024. 

Gotham FC

2024 Finish: 3rd

Gotham surprisingly has had the most active offseason of any NWSL team, with 10 new additions joining the squad in 2025 and 24 players signed for the upcoming season (24 active, no SEI). Additionally, there has been reporting that defender Jenna Nighswonger will be heading to the WSL—the window for this move is quickly closing but Nighswonger was disclosed as Not Yet Reported—which would leave Gotham with only six defenders. With their remaining roster positions, Gotham needs to look for further depth in their midfield and defense.

North Carolina Courage

2024 Finish: 5th

The Courage top out the high end with 29 players under contract for the upcoming season (28 active, one 2024 SEI). They’ll need to send players out on loans/transfers or release players ahead of the season opener in March. The stacked roster does mean that the NRI’s who have joined the team for preseason do have a higher hurdle to try to earn a spot than potentially on other teams. 

Orlando Pride

2024 Finish: 1st, NWSL Championship

The Pride are the team with the fewest offseason acquisitions at only two, but when you got something that’s working, why mess with it? The reigning NWSL Shield winners and NWSL Champions have 24 players returning from their 2024 squad, and 26 players under contract (21 active, five 2024 SEI). 

Portland Thorns

2024 Finish: 6th

After a tumultuous 2024 that truly had downs and ups and downs and ups, the Thorns saw three major retirements in players that defined the squad’s culture in Christine Sinclair, Becky Sauerbrunn, and Meghan Klingenberg. Their offseason acquisitions were focused on adding depth in the defense and up top. Portland only has 23 players under contract (22 active, one 2024 SEI), and two open international spots to potentially target additional players ahead of the start of the season. 

Racing Louisville

2024 Finish: 9th

Racing is looking to end their unfortunate run of four 9th place finishes in a row in the upcoming season and focused on shoring up their defense in the offseason moves, while adding a little depth up top. Louisville has 25 players under contract (24 active, one 2024 SEI). It wouldn’t be surprising if they added another forward with the remaining spot(s). Fun fact: their NRI’s include midfielder Meg Boade (sister of Bay FC midfielder Tess Boade), and Makayla DeMelo (sister of Racing midfielder Savannah DeMelo)

San Diego Wave

2024 Finish: 10th

The Wave only have 24 players signed for the upcoming season (all active), and have had one of the busiest offseasons of any team in the league with nine new players joining the ranks for 2025 (and available spots for two more). During the offseason the team hired Jonas Eidevall to lead the squad in their fourth season, who has chosen to not have any NRI’s—likely to focus as much as possible on the teambuilding in the preseason ramp up.  

Seattle Reign

2024 Finish: 13th

The Reign joined the preseason with 25 players under contract (24 active, one 2024 SEI). It’s head coach Laura Harvey’s fifth year at the helm (this go-around), and after a rough start to the 2024 season, the Reign made a lot of moves during the secondary window but were never really able to hit their stride. This offseason will be important to finally have the downtime to figure out their new identity and fold in the new additions. 

Utah Royals

2024 Finish: 11th

The Royals did not have the best start to their (re)inaugural season in 2024, but after the summer break, it looked like the team had finally found their rhythm. They start the preseason with 24 players under contract (20 active, four 2024 SEIs), and have had seven additions this offseason which hopefully will mesh seamlessly with their end-of-season momentum. 

Washington Spirit

2024 Finish: 2nd

No NRIs for head coach Jonatan Giráldez’s first full offseason—he joined the Spirit in July of 2024 full-time. After losing the NWSL Championship to the Orlando Pride 1–0, the Spirit were fairly active in the offseason with seven new additions, all fairly spread out across the pitch. The Spirit started the preseason with 27 players under contract (22 active, five 2024 SEI). 

Keith SmithJanuary 29, 2025

We’re just over a week out from the NBA trade deadline on February 6. Like the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are falling into defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

After the contenders, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. (This season, this is truer of the Western Conference than the Eastern Conference.) And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

You can find the Eastern Conference teams here.

Dallas Mavericks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavericks are looking for perimeter defensive help. In addition, with recent frontcourt injuries, Dallas would like to add a big. The challenge is that Nico Harrison isn’t sitting on a whole lot of tradable salary, and the Mavs are working under tight margins against a first-apron hard cap.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Dallas should look for upgrades, but they need to be careful. If you can do a get-by move or two, by all means do so. But investing real assets - when these might be short-term fixes - isn’t the play.

Denver Nuggets

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Denver is looking for rotation help. They like their top six-to-eight rotation. Beyond that, Calvin Booth is seeing what he can get. It doesn’t seem like a major move for a guy like Zach LaVine will be an in-season thing. That means shopping Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric for a rotation upgrade.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

It makes sense for the Nuggets to be looking for upgrades. Another big would be nice. Relying on DeAndre Jordan this much behind Nikola Jokic is a little worrisome. Maybe one more guard to put in the mix would be helpful too. If they’re willing to move a draft pick, that Nnaji/Saric combo could get them a nice upgrade.

Golden State Warriors

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

This was very close to being a “Neither”. The Warriors are open to making moves, but they are insistent that they don’t want to move a lot of future assets, be it players or draft picks. That’s going to limit what they can do.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Warriors should be buying. Yes, this team has issues. There’s no ignoring that. But they still have a chance with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. They don’t need to get silly, but they could make upgrades without giving up everything. They should be pursuing them.

Houston Rockets

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Houston seems to be honest in their commitment to seeing this season through. It’s not the worst idea. They’ve been really good. If the right deal was there (De’Aaron Fox?) maybe their minds will be changed. But Rafael Stone has held firm thus far that the big moves are coming this summer and beyond.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Rockets are really good. Maybe even a player (and some postseason luck) away from making a real playoff run. The future is never guaranteed. Houston doesn’t need to be reckless and trade away guys from the young core. But they could make moves without doing that. It’s worth considering bolstering this team for now and tomorrow.

LA Clippers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clippers are looking for rotation upgrades. They aren’t likely to get involved in any blockbuster deals, but they’ve got plenty of tradable salary to add to their group. The primary focus is on adding frontcourt help.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

If there is a deal to send Tucker somewhere and bring back a ready-to-play 4/5, the Clippers should do it. (Yes, that was a copy-paste from last year!) Terance Mann has also been on the fringes of the rotation. He could be available too.

Los Angeles Lakers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Los Angeles already made one move to add Dorian Finney-Smith, but they’re still looking. Another ballhandler and perimeter scoring is on the list. Anthony Davis wants another big, and the Lakers are looking at those options too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing this well, you owe it to them and yourselves to make your roster better. (Hey! Another copy-paste!) The Lakers are doing so. They’re going to keep searching. However, unless Rob Pelinka is suddenly willing to trade both of the future picks they can move, it won’t be the superstar deal many fans are looking for.

Memphis Grizzlies

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Memphis is trying to find some upgrades for their rotation. They’d like to add another shooter to their mix, ideally one with some size and versatility. That’s why they were in on Dorian Finney-Smith and have been in on Cam Johnson.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Thankfully, the Grizzlies have been less precious with their own drafted and developed players in the last year or so. That puts them in position to do something. This team is really, really close to title contention. Hitting on the right guy could put them over the top for the next few years.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Approach at the deadline: Neither

As a second-apron team, Minnesota doesn’t have the flexibility to do a whole lot. Unless they are moving Julius Randle, there’s just not much here. Expect the Wolves to poke around for vets who can be acquired using the Minimum Exception, but they can’t do much else.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

This one is one the Timberwolves probably need to wait until the offseason to reset. The challenges of working around the second apron are simply too restrictive. If they can find a deal for Julius Randle that rebalances and upgrades the rotation, that’s worth considering. But that doesn’t seem very likely.

New Orleans Pelicans

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Pelicans are looking for deals for Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum. They seem to open to listening to offers for Zion Williamson, but don’t really want to move him. And if a team wants Javonte Green or Daniel Theis, all they need to do is call. Everyone else is sticking around.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

At the very least, New Orleans is going to get out of the tax by shedding Javonte Green or Daniel Theis, or both. The Pels might move Ingram. They’re still trying. C.J. McCollum might need to wait until the offseason, but teams do get desperate for guard help at the deadline. Zion Williamson? Nah. Let’s see what the rest of the season looks like and cross that bridge this summer, if necessary.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Thunder are looking. There’s nothing huge coming though. They tried that last year with Gordon Hayward and it failed. That hasn’t scared OKC off trying to do anything else, but they don’t need a whole lot. Adding another perimeter on-ball playmaker seems to be the goal.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Oklahoma City has what they need to win the Finals. They’ve been the best team in the league this season. But that doesn’t mean they can’t bolster their rotation with a move. And, we all know they have the draft-pick capital to do whatever they want.

Phoenix Suns

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Outside of Jimmy Butler, the Suns are looking to see what they can do. They’re actively shopping Jusuf Nurkic for perimeter help. The Suns made the draft pick swap with the Jazz to have some assets to move right now.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Without getting deep into it, a Butler deal has to involve finding Bradley Beal an acceptable home. If that can’t happen, Phoenix should try to turn Jusuf Nurkic’s contract into a couple of helpful players, even if that means moving one or two the recently acquired first-round picks.

Portland Trail Blazers

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Portland is listening on a number of veterans. They’re open to moving Robert Williams III, Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle. Williams and Thybulle seem to be drawing the most interest, but offers are reflecting their susceptibility for injury.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Trail Blazers should be moving their vets. It’s not quite “Everything must go!” time, but we’re not too far off that. The veteran players the Blazers have aren’t likely to see their trade value increase as time goes along. Now is the time to move some of these guys while Portland can still get a positive return.

Sacramento Kings

Approach at the deadline: Either

The De’Aaron Fox trade availability/desires threw a monkey wrench to the entire NBA. A whole new star is now available. The big question, beyond where Fox is going, is: What is the plan in Sacramento? Are they tearing things down? Are the Kings flipping Fox for win-now players? That will get answered in coming days.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Sacramento needs to be honest with themselves here, and through the offseason. This group broke the playoff drought and has stagnated since. Are shuffling pieces enough to reset things and keep the Kings in playoff contention? Or is it time to rebuild? The first is hard to pull off, and rare to see succeed. The latter could set up Sacramento with assets for years to come. It’s worth at least listening to offers for the stars beyond De’Aaron Fox to see what the returns could be.

San Antonio Spurs

Approach at the deadline: Neither*

We put in the “*” because the Spurs could jump on a De’Aaron Fox trade before the deadline. He seems to want that, and it makes sense for San Antonio too. If it’s not a Fox addition, then the Spurs will probably just sit things out. They’re progressing along just fine. No reason to get crazy for minor upgrades now.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers*

Yeah, another “*”. This one is because the Spurs should go get De’Aaron Fox if the asking price is reasonable. San Antonio has some extra draft picks that look promising. They have young players, and some vet role players, they can send to Sacramento. Pairing Fox and Victor Wembanyama makes a lot of sense. It’s worth exploring, before Fox lands somewhere else and the Spurs are still looking for the point guard of the future.

Utah Jazz

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

This is the most obvious seller situation outside of maybe Portland. If you’ve been in the league longer than a few years and you aren’t Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz are open to moving you. John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton and Drew Eubanks are all available. Walker Kessler is “available”, but only if you make a monster offer. So, good luck there.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

It makes no sense to hang onto John Collins and Jordan Clarkson for Utah. The Jazz don’t have to make a bad deal, and they won’t, but both of those vets should get moved. Collin Sexton is a nice fit, and on a pretty good deal, so keeping him as the team rebuilds would be fine. But if the right offer comes, Sexton could move too. If someone gets silly with an offer for Walker Kessler, that’s worth exploring too. The Jazz are going to be active and will probably make at least a couple of moves by the deadline.

 

Keith SmithJanuary 27, 2025

We’re just over a week out from the NBA trade deadline on February 6. Like the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are falling into defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

After the contenders, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. (This season, this is truer of the Western Conference than the Eastern Conference.) And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Let’s call the Hawks cautious buyers. Atlanta doesn’t have a lot of room under the tax to add salary. They aren’t good enough to go into the tax yet, so that limits what they can do. They’re looking for upgrades, but nothing major seems on the horizon.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Atlanta shouldn’t be making any all-in moves, nor should they be trading any young core players. But if someone wants to make a run at Clint Capela or Larry Nance Jr., the Hawks should listen. This could be a way to continue rebalancing the cap sheet, while adding talent to keep Atlanta in the playoff race.

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Boston doesn’t have the tradable salary to do anything all that meaningful at the deadline. Their top-nine playoff guys are also fairly set too. They’re always looking around, but nothing seems imminent here.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

Despite a blah last month or so, the Celtics are still the champs. Everything is set up to make another title run. There are no major needs. They’ll probably move Jaden Springer’s expiring salary to kick the can down the road with another guy who has a year or left, but don’t expect much more. Mostly, Boston will just keep things moving along.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Nets have already started this process, but there’s more to come. Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, D’Angelo Russell, Bojan Bogdanovic and…well…just about anyone can be had for the right price.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Brooklyn hasn’t landed on their next franchise guy yet. They’ve got a few interesting young guys, but none of them screams out as the guy who will lead several years of playoff runs. That’ll come through the draft. Maximize assets over the next few years is the way forward for the Nets.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte already moved Nick Richards, and he was their best trade asset. They might be able to get something for Cody Martin, as more and more teams are looking for perimeter help. But the Hornets are looking at smaller deals now.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Could Jeff Peterson jump in and help as a facilitator again? It’s possible. If they Hornets can snag some more additional assets to help move some money around, they’ll probably do it. The reality is that there just isn’t a lot of tradable salary left here. The bigger deals belong to the guys who Charlotte is building around. This should be a quiet deadline.

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls are sellers. Wait…really? It appears so. They are still open to moving Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic in the right deal. Patrick Williams is still very available. Basically, anyone but Matas Buzelis, and possibly Josh Giddey, shouldn’t be investing in long-term real estate in Chicago.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. No doubt about it. They might not get monster returns for LaVine or Vucevic, but if they could take on some undesirable money to plus-up the return packages, Chicago should be open to that. It’s been years since they’ve leaned fully into rebuilding, but it’s beyond time to pull the plug on this iteration. Mercifully, it seems that process is finally beginning.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Cleveland is poking around and looking for help. They aren’t touching the core, but the guys who orbit around them can be had in return for upgrades. The Cavaliers are looking for perimeter help and wouldn’t mind adding a versatile backup big too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs have the movable salary to get something done. Ideally, they’d make a move or two to add talent, while also getting out of the tax. Cleveland projects to be very expensive for years to come. No reason to start that clock any earlier than necessary.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Either

This Pistons are operating with an air of mystery right now. Their very good play has them looking for some upgrades. Their $14 million in cap space has them open to eating some salary. If there’s a way to do both, Tajan Langdon will jump on it.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Detroit hasn’t won a single playoff game (game, not series) since 2008. Young Pistons fans could complete their entire run of K-12 schooling without seeing a single playoff win. Langdon has the ability to add help and should be active. It doesn’t have to be a crazy, sell-the-farm kind of deal. But this group has earned an upgrade or two to aid in the postseason push.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Indiana is in a good place. They don’t really need a whole lot, beyond staying healthy. The Pacers have stayed focused on the players they have. Myles Turner rumors abound (wouldn’t be a deadline without them!), but that seems to be more speculation that reality at this point.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

If there’s a deal that comes up that can allow Indiana to get off a long-term salary for a fringe rotation guy (they don’t have any bad salary), they should be on it. The Pacers project to hit next summer without much room under the luxury tax. If they are going to re-sign Myles Turner, they need to clear some room eventually, as they aren’t likely to play the tax. Now, if they aren’t going to re-sign Turner, then they should probably think about moving him by the deadline. But that’s not the direction this will probably take.

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Heat are trying to find Jimmy Butler trade that brings back win-now talent, but no long-term salary. That’s a tricky needle to thread, but maybe they can pull it off. Until Butler’s situation is settled, and possibly after, don’t expect much else from Miami.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Miami is progressing along as they should be. There’s no reason to rush a Butler trade and take back a less-than-desirable return. See that through, play out the rest of the season, then pick up the pieces this summer for the long-term.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Bucks are always active and there’s nothing different happening at this deadline. Milwaukee is looking for more scoring help, and they’ve got some tradable salary to make it happen. They’ll have to dance around the second apron, but it’s doable with a salary-shedding more or two.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Milwaukee is doing the right thing. They should be trying to maximize the time they have with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard playing at superstar levels. That might mean saying goodbye to some key franchise guys, but reunions down the line are made for showing love for the past. If you want to compete for another title, moves have to be made.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

New York is looking for some help. They’d like a more reliable backup for Karl-Anthony Towns. They’d also like a bigger perimeter defender too. The issue is that their draft capital is just about spent, and the Knicks only sizable matching salary belongs to oft-injured Mitchell Robinson.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

I’m calling the Knicks bargain shoppers. They don’t have much wiggle room under the second apron. That means a small move, or moving Robinson. I wouldn’t rule out either one, but not sure whatever they do is going to get folks all that fired up in New York.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Magic are best termed as cautious buyers…again. Forever and always, it seems. Orlando can use help. They desperately need more shooting. But whatever vortex players pass through when they land in the Magic Kingdom seems to sap even good shooters of that particular ability. Still, the Magic are looking to see what they can do. Just don’t expect to hear a lot in advance. Jeff Weltman and crew keep things pretty quiet.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Orlando should be looking to buy. There’s no question about it. The team is mostly healthy again and they still need shooting. The target for the Magic needs to be a shooter who fits now and over the next few years. They’ve got the tradable salary and draft picks to make it happen. A deal now could be the difference between a first round win and going home after one series.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Either

This is a mess. It’s hard to predict what the Sixers will do, because they don’t even really seem to know what their season will hold. News came out last week that ownership would like to take a few weeks to evaluate the team, but that’s after the deadline. A top-six protected pick doesn’t actually seem to be a real factor. So, look for maybe a move or two to bolster the rotation until the stars can get on the court more often.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

This doesn’t mean Philadelphia needs to move any of the three stars. Those guys can stay, unless someone gets really, really silly with an offer for Paul George (not happening). But moving role players should be on the table. Even if the 76ers aren’t going to start tanking, they can still get some future assets to help build these team back up again this coming offseason.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Raptors are still rebuilding and figuring things out. Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk are available. Chris Boucher might be available. Most of the young players are off the table, as those are the guys Toronto is building around.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto is staying on the path they set ahead of last trade deadline. Their solid play as of late is fun, and bodes well for the future, but this team is playing for a high draft pick and a potential star to add to their young core. They should listen more on Jakob Poeltl than it seems like they will, but they don’t have to give him away either.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Sellers. The worst team in the league is shopping their veterans. This is a full-scale teardown happening exactly as planned. Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas and Jordan Poole can all be had for a decent return package. If you throw in better assets, Washington will eat some bad long-term salary too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers. Everything the Wizards are doing is super ugly, and they are 100% correct in the path they’ve chosen. The kids are playing plenty and the team is zooming towards top lottery position. If they can get a nice return for any of the vets, they should do so. Keep an eye on Richaun Holmes too. His contract was designed to be traded, and something might happen there to help another team move some money around.

 

Scott AllenJanuary 26, 2025

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Keith SmithJanuary 22, 2025

The 2025 NBA trade deadline is about two weeks away.  The early trade season has been pretty active this year. We haven’t had any true blockbusters yet, but we’re already at six trades. That’s a lot compared to previous years.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit a month from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.3 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $25.3 million (Dejounte Murray), $10.6 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed an unprotected 2025 first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers. The Hawks also have a top-12 protected pick 2025 pick from Sacramento, which could come this year or next. Atlanta has their first-round picks from 2028 through 2031.

Hawks have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cody Zeller. It would have been juicy to pick Clint Capela here, but Atlanta seems likely to operate fairly conservatively at this deadline. That means Zeller is the choice, who was acquired this past offseason to make salary-matching work in the Dejounte Murray trade. Trade or waiver, Zeller probably won’t be on the Hawks much past the deadline.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.6 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Boston owes a 2029 first to Portland. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028.

The Celtics have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jaden Springer. Look for Boston to move Jaden Springer in a similar move to the one they made to acquire him last year. They’ll trade him for team-controlled salary that extends into 2025-26.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $677,263 under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $23.3 million (Mikal Bridges), $3.4 million (Royce O’Neale), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Nets draft pick situation is a bit confusing. They have their own picks back in 2025 and 2026. That’s the key thing to know. Brooklyn is highly unlikely to trade any of the first-round picks they own, as they are rebuilding.

The Nets have at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cam Johnson. We’re picking Johnson here, because that would be the biggest impact move. But every player on the Nets roster is available in the right deal. They haven’t landed on their next franchise guy yet.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Grant Williams – Disabled Player Exception: Can only be used to acquire an expiring contract)

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected 2025 first-rounder to the Spurs (last year being lottery-protected before coming two second-round picks), but own all the rest of their own first-round picks. Charlotte has extra picks, with protections, coming from Dallas and Miami too.

The Hornets have at least 13 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Seth Curry. Because Nick Richards was recently traded, there aren’t many veterans left that the Hornets should be looking to move. If a team wants to add to the second-round pick stash to add some shooting in the form of Curry, Charlotte will happily make that move.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $17.5 million (DeMar DeRozan)

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe a protected first-round pick to San Antonio in the coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2028. From there, the Bulls have all of their own first-round picks through 2031. Chicago has a lottery-protected first owed to them from the Trail Blazers, with those same protections through 2028.

The Bulls have three tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached.

Most Likely to be Traded: Who knows? The Bulls have been shopping Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic for a while now without making a deal. Patrick Williams is on the block. Teams have shown interest in Lonzo Ball. There are a number of players on veteran minimum deals that could be moved. Without being overly sarcastic: We’re all still waiting on Chicago to do something, and that wait has lasted a couple or already.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.9M under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes three future first-round picks to the Jazz, as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The first tradable first-round pick the Cavs have is in 2031.

The Cavs have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. There isn’t a great choice here. Cleveland will probably make a move to dodge the tax (as an expensive team in the coming years, not starting the repeater clock is important for the Cavs), but it might come as part of a bigger move. Caris LeVert is on a $16.6 million expiring contract, but he’s the Cavs third ballhandler most nights. The Cavaliers will do something, but it’s hard to peg what that will be.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $526,220 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $16.2 million (Tim Hardaway Jr.), $4.0 million (Seth Curry)

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a top-two protected 2027 first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets. The Mavericks also owe a 2029 first-rounder to the Nets or Rockets, and first-round swaps in 2027 (Thunder) and 2030 (Spurs). That leaves the Mavs pick in 2025 as their only free and clear tradable first-round pick.

Dallas has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dante Exum. The Mavs don’t have any large expiring contracts They also aren’t a small salary-dump within range of getting out of the tax. Expect Dallas to be active, as Nico Harrison’s history shows he will be, but there’s no clear standout move here.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.2 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.3 million (Reggie Jackson)

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to realistically trade a first-round pick at this deadline.

The Nuggets don’t have any tradable second-round picks. All of their second-round picks have conditions attached, or were already traded outright.

Most Likely to be Traded: Zeke Nnaji. You could also put Dario Saric here, but a trade of Nnaji would get the Nuggets off $3.7 million more in salary, plus addition salary too. Whether that move is to create clearance under the apron to free up trade flexibility, or a straight salary dump to lessen the tax bill in the real question.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $14.0 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception – would only be used after using cap space)

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a top-13 protected first-round pick to Minnesota. That pick may actually convey, given the team’s surprising postseason push. All of the Detroit’s other first-round picks are free and clear from 2028 to 2031.

The Pistons have at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Tim Hardaway Jr. The real answer here is the Pistons $14 million in cap space. They’re going to use most, if not all, of that before the deadline. If they go for a bigger move, Hardaway’s expiring $16.2 million salary seems likely to be added to that cap space to make it happen.

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $330,409 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Golden State owes Washington a top-20 protected first-round pick in 2030. The Warriors own all of their other first-round picks.

The Warriors have two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dennis Schroder. The Warriors don’t seem inclined to make the kind of big move that would necessitate putting Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski in a deal, along with Andrew Wiggins for salary-matching purposes. Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney have meant too much to just be dumped as expiring salary. So, that leaves Dennis Schroder, who hasn’t been exactly the fit that Golden State hoped for.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston’s first-round pick situation is somewhat messy. They have a couple of picks/swaps that are controlled by Oklahoma City. On the incoming side, the Rockets own their own firsts (or favorable swap rights) from 2028 through 2031. And they have an extra couple of picks coming their way from the Suns or Mavericks.

The Rockets have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Jock Landale or Jae’Sean Tate. All four veteran frontcourt players are on expiring (or non-guaranteed) contracts. That makes all of them trade chips if Houston looks for a small rotation upgrade up front. The Rockets continue to insist that a trade for a superstar isn’t in the cards at this deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $126,514 under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Pacers owe the Raptors a top-four protected pick in 2026 or 2027. Beyond that, they own all of their own first-round picks.

Indiana has at least eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: James Johnson or James Wiseman. Indiana seems pretty well set with their roster. They’d probably like some additional clearance under the luxury tax, but could just ride things out as is and barely dodge the tax line. If they want the clearance, look for Johnson or Wiseman to be the sacrifice.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.8 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.3 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers still owe a 2026 first-round pick to the Thunder (or 76ers) and then a 2028 first-round pick outright to the 76ers. LA also owes swap rights to OKC in 2025 and 2027 and top-three protected 2029 swap right to the Philadelphia. The Clippers only outright tradable first-round pick comes in 2031.

LA has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: P.J. Tucker. The Clippers haven’t used Tucker as a rotation player since he came over in the James Harden trade. If they make a deal to further fortify their rotation, he’s likely to be involved. Otherwise, Tucker will be waived following the trade deadline to open a roster spot.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.5 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Los Angeles owes Atlanta their 2025 first-round pick. They also owe a top-four protected 2027 first-round pick to Utah. Beyond that, the Lakers own all of their own first-round picks.

The Lakers have two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Rui Hachimura. This one is about salary size. If the Lakers are making another significant move, it’s likely that Hachimura’s $17 million salary will be involved.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.6 million (Steven Adams), $6.1 million (Ziaire Williams), $8.6 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks, including favorable swap rights on two picks in 2026 and 2030.

Memphis has five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Luke Kennard or John Konchar. Same as it was last year. Either Kennard or Konchar (or both!) will likely be involved if the Grizzlies make a move to consolidate their rotation some.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.0 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Kyle Lowry)

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat’s first-round draft pick situation is fascinating. Miami owes a lottery-protected pick to Oklahoma City in 2025. That pick becomes unprotected in 2026 if it doesn’t convey this year. That would wipe out the lottery-protected pick that Miami owes Charlotte in 2027. That would then make that pick unprotected in 2028. The Heat own their 2029 through 2031 first-round picks with no conditions attached.

Miami has three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jimmy Butler. Who else were we going to pick? 

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.5 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks don’t own any of their own first-round picks outright until 2031. Every other pick is either owed to another team or tied up in least-favorable swap rights.

Milwaukee has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Pat Connaughton. If the Bucks want to get under the second apron, it’s very likely Connaughton will be in the deal. That will come either with Connaughton by himself to free Milwaukee of the burdensome second-apron restriction, or as part of a bigger deal where the Bucks finish under the second apron.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $16.1 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah three future first-round picks (and one swap), only one of which is lightly protected. The Wolves also owe a top-1 protected swap to the Spurs in 2030 and their pick outright to San Antonio in 2031. That all means they can’t trade a first-round pick directly.

The Timberwolves have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Wolves don’t have a lot of tradable salary that isn’t attached to rotation players. There’s also not a deal worth doing that will really lessen their tax burden enough.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.1 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.9 million (Jonas Valanciunas), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own all of their own first-round picks. They also have favorable swap rights in both 2026 and 2027.

New Orleans has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Javonte Green or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Both players are on veteran minimum deals, which makes them easy to trade to just about anywhere. If the Pelicans feel Dejounte Murray will miss out on currently likely bonuses, then they are one small move from dodging the luxury tax. Given they’ve never paid it, a trade to avoid the tax is as good of a bet to happen as any in the NBA.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $535,302 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Unlike a year ago, the Knicks have traded most of their first-round draft capital now. They have one extra first-round pick potentially coming from the Wizards in 2026 (it won’t convey this year). Besides that, New York can offer 2026 and 2030 first-round swap rights in deals.

The Knicks have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mitchell Robinson or Jericho Sims. If the Knicks make a move for a rotation upgrade, it will definitely include Robinson getting moved. If it's a minor move for depth, Sims may be the guy on the move.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has between 10 and 14 first-round picks, pending protected picks. They have all of their own, including favorable swap rights in several years.

The Thunder have at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Thunder don’t seem overly like to make a trade. Could they firm up a rotation spot here or there? Sure. But they don’t need to. And they like all the players they have. Oklahoma City will let this playoff run tell them what they really need. If a big move is coming, it’ll come this offseason.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $20.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have an extra first-round pick coming from the Nuggets in 2025 (unless Denver implodes), in addition to all of their own first-round picks.

Orlando has 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cole Anthony, Gary Harris or Moe Wagner. If the Magic make a deal, and there’s no guarantee they will, at least one of these guys will be involved. Anthony has the biggest salary, while Harris and Wagner have team options for 2025-26, which makes them essentially expiring contracts. Orlando could make a major impact move, but that hasn’t been the M.O. of this front office with in-season moves.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.1 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers owe a protected first-round pick to the Thunder in 2025, 2026 or 2027. Once that is settled, the 76ers owe a protected first-round pick to the Nets in 2027 or 2028. Philadelphia has their own picks in 2029 (or favorable swap rights with the Clippers) through 2031, as well as an additional pick from the Clippers in 2028.

The Sixers have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Not Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey or Jared McCain. Everyone else could be moved by Philadelphia. Things have no gone the way the Sixers hoped for. That means all of their veterans could be on the move, as the team sets things up for the future. Keep an eye on K.J. Martin, whose contract was specifically set up to be traded.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.2 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.3 million (Josh Okogie)

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix’s draft pick situation is unique and a mess. The recent trade with the Utah Jazz gave the Suns some tradable picks. Without getting too deep into the details, Phoenix has three tradable first-round picks between 2025 and 2030, but all have least-favorable conditions attached.

The Suns have one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jusuf Nurkic. Sure, Bradley Beal will be moved if a Jimmy Butler deal happens, but Beal’s no-trade clause complicates things. Nurkic has no such restriction, and he’s probably getting moved before the deadline if Phoenix can find a taker.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.9 million (Malcolm Brogdon), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery-protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028. The Blazers own their own first-round picks in 2029 through 2031, including favorable swap rights in 2029 and 2030, plus an extra first-round pick in 2029 from Boston or Milwaukee.

Portland has at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Williams III. This one is about the Trail Blazers trading movable vets. Williams has been more or less healthy lately and he’s on an easily tradable contract. Keep an eye on Matisse Thybulle for the same contract reason, if teams think he can get healthy. Trades for Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton may have to wait until the offseason, because they are carrying such large salary numbers.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.3 million (Sasha Vezenkov), $5.9 million (Chris Duarte), $4.7 million (Jalen McDaniels), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks in 2025 (top-12 protected) or 2026 (top-10 protected), but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. The Spurs can swap for the Kings pick in 2031.

Sacramento has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Kevin Huerter or Trey Lyles. If the Kings make an impact move, they’ll move either Huerter or Lyles, or package them together. That combo seems to be what Sacramento is offering around the league in search of rotation upgrades up front or on the wing.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $21.1 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs own all of their own first-round picks. They also have most-favorable swap rights in several years too. In addition, San Antonio has extra first-round picks coming from Atlanta (2025 and 2027), Chicago (in 2025, 2026 or 2027) and Minnesota (2031).

The Spurs have at least 19 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. San Antonio doesn’t have any tax issues. They also don’t seem likely to make a major in-season move. They’ll save their big stuff for the summer.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owns all of their own first-rounders, plus a top-4 protected pick coming from Indiana in either 2026 or 2027.

The Raptors have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bruce Brown or Chris Boucher. Brown and Boucher are both on expiring contracts. Brown seems unlikely to be back in Toronto, so he’ll probably be moved by the deadline. Boucher could help a lot of teams looking for frontcourt depth, but there’s been talks of an extension for him with the Raptors too.

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Utah still has a bushel of picks coming their way, even after their 3-picks-for-1-pick trade with the Suns. The Jazz owe a protected first-round pick to the Thunder, but it’s unclear if that pick will ever convey. They own all of their own first-round picks beyond that, plus an additional five first-rounders coming from the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Lakers and Suns.

Utah has at least three tradable second-round picks. 

Most Likely to be Traded: John Collins or Jordan Clarkson. The Jazz have been open to moving both of these veterans for months now. Clarkson makes less, but Collins is the better player. A trade for either isn’t guaranteed before the deadline, but it wouldn’t be a surprise either.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $11.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.4 million (Daniel Gafford), $6.4 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. They also have the ability to swap several years of picks with the Suns, plus they own a top-20 protected Warriors pick in 2030. In addition, the Wizards added a second most-favorable pick from the Celtics, Bucks or Trail Blazers in 2029 over the summer.

Washington as has least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Any veteran Wizard. No, not Gandalf or Dumbledore. But Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole. Malcolm Brogdon or Jonas Valanciunas can all be had for the right offers. Washington, by their own admission, is still in the deconstruction phase with this roster. Also, keep an eye on Richaun Holmes in a move to swap some salary around. Holmes’ extension was specifically designed to make his contract tradable.

 

Michael GinnittiJanuary 22, 2025

Before the chaos of the NFL offseason kicks into gear, we’ll dive into five players who appear poised to lock in a contract extension in the coming weeks and months, providing outcome predictions for each.

QB Brock Purdy (SF, 25)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $5M

Purdy’s 2025 salary will escalate from $1M up to around $5M thanks to a Proven Performance Bonus (figure to be determined once the 2025 league salary cap is set). It’s a small consolation prize for a player who has been providing his team with as much financial value as possible for the better part of 3 seasons.

Has Purdy done enough to demand a near top of the market contract? Does his value outside of the 49ers create leverage? Will the Niners play hardball here? Common sense says the two sides move quickly on this deal, coming in at a healthy, but not crushing, bottom line number.

Let’s keep this simple and cap adjust the Daniel Jones contract from 2023:

Prediction: 4 years, $194M, $100M guaranteed

ED Micah Parsons (DAL, 25)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $24M

Parsons produced 12 sacks, 43 tackles, and 2 forced fumbles in just 13 games for the Cowboys last season and will enter a contract year in 2025 (fully guaranteed $24M 5th-year option salary). He’s been one of the games most productive edge defenders since stepping onto the field back in 2021, and should be of Dallas’ top priority signings this offseason.

The top numbers for edge defenders currently stand at: $34M APY, $122.5M GTD, though it should be noted (since the Cowboys tend to wait until the last minute with these things) that T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, Max Crosby, and Zach Allen are all contract extension candidates this offseason as well, which should continue to push this market even further.

Prediction: 4 years, $150M ($115M guaranteed)

WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN, 24)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $21.8M

127 catches, 1,708 yards, 17 touchdowns. There are certainly worse ways to launch yourself into a contract negotiation offseason, and Justin Jefferson’s $35M APY, $110M guaranteed could very much be in danger here. While drops remain a bit of a concern (9 in 2024), the former #5 overall pick has done more than enough to warrant a market resetting contract this spring.

Prediction: 4 years, $145M ($100M guaranteed)

CB Derek Stingley Jr. (HOU, 23)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $5.4M + 2026 option

The #3 overall pick in 2022 now has 11 interceptions in 37 games and enters the offseason as PFF’s 4th highest rated cornerback. Houston will (of course) exercise his 5th year option before the May 2nd deadline, then should have its sights on locking in Stingley to a deal in the same ballpark as Patrick Surtain’s extension in Denver (4 years, $96M, $77.5M guaranteed).

Prediction: 4 years, $105M ($83M guaranteed)

S Kyle Hamilton (BLT, 23)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $2.9M + 2026 option

Hamilton’s versatility fills up the box score on a weekly basis (107 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick in 2024), and the #2 rated safety in football according to PFF is now extension-eligible for the first time at just 23 years old.

The safety market got a nice bump last offseason with Antoine Winfield Jr.’s extension in Tampa Bay. Hamilton should all but destroy his numbers ($21M APY, 53.5% guaranteed). Assuming the Ravens exercise Hamilton’s 5th-year option (estimated $18.3M) before extending him, he’ll be carrying around $21M with him into the negotiation.

Prediction: 3 years, $75M ($58M guaranteed)

 

Keith SmithJanuary 22, 2025

The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz linked up on a swap of draft picks. For Utah, this was a quality over quantity trade. For Phoenix, this has the Suns set up to do something (or multiple somethings) bigger.

Here are the particulars:

Phoenix Suns acquire: least favorable 2025 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick; least favorable 2027 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick; least favorable 2029 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick

Utah Jazz acquire: 2031 Suns first-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Phoenix Suns

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: None

The Suns have been incredibly creative in using their limited draft assets in the last couple of years. First, they used swap rights with several first-round picks to add some additional second-round picks. Now, the Suns turned their one remaining tradable first-round pick into three tradable first-round picks. That’s pretty good work, even if none of the resulting picks Phoenix holds has tremendous value.

Or do they? Probably not as any single individual asset. As a collective, the value is huge to Phoenix.

Before making this deal, the Suns were limited to trading only their 2031 first-round pick in deals. Because of The Stepien Rule, and following trading several picks for Kevin Durant, Phoenix was prohibited from including any additional firsts in trades.

Now, the Suns have unlocked the ability to trade three picks in a six-year window between the 2025 NBA Draft and the 2030 NBA Draft. There are still some challenges with that, however.

In 2026, 2028 and 2030, the Suns have already swapped their first-round picks in previous deals. The conditions are incredibly complicated, but here’s what you need to know: Depending on the year, Phoenix is set to have the worst pick out of a group that includes themselves, the Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and Washington Wizards.

Making it easier: In the even years, Phoenix will have a first-round pick that should land in the 20s.

With these new picks they’ve acquired, the Suns have added a whole new set of least-favorable conditions to their ledger. In the odd years from 2025 through 2029, Phoenix will get the worst pick of the Cavaliers, Timberwolves and Jazz. There are some protections on a couple of those picks too, but they aren’t likely to matter in the Suns case.

So, to make it really, really simple: The Suns traded their 2031 first-round pick for the Cavaliers 2025 first-round pick (good luck to Minnesota in trying to catch Cleveland this season!), while picking up a couple of additional first-rounders that should land in the 20s in 2027 and 2029.

Got all that? Good! Now, let’s go through what really matters.

The picks the Suns acquired are only kind of, sort of about where they might land. The key thing Phoenix acquired here is the ability to trade first-round picks at all between 2025 and 2030. That’s what this deal was really about.

Once again: James Jones was limited to offering his 2031 first-round pick in deals prior to this trade. Given the contracts the Suns are reportedly looking to move, that wasn’t going to cut it. So, Jones went out and got the ability to offer additional first-round picks to entice teams to take on some salary. That’s huge for opening up avenues for Phoenix over the next two weeks until the trade deadline.

Now, if the Suns jump into a Jimmy Butler trade and need to move Bradley Beal, Jones can offer a couple of first-round picks to help grease the wheels for a team to take on the $160 million Beal counts for on the books through 2026-27. Crucially, Phoenix might also be able to keep an additional first-round pick in reserve to convince a team to eat the $19 million owed to Jusuf Nurkic for next season.

And, of course, Jones could flip those picks in smaller deals to add depth, even if we all know the Suns are thinking bigger.

So, instead of having one pick to offer in 2031, Phoenix can now present a menu of choices to potential trade partners. You want to jump in the quagmire of “least favorable” involving a bunch of teams in the Grizzlies, Magic, Sixers, Knicks, Nets, Wizards group? Take your pick! You want to keep it simple and snag the worst pick of Cavs, Wolves and Jazz in a couple of different seasons? Absolutely!

As long as the Suns still have a first-round pick every other year, encumbered by complicated swap rights as it may be, they’re clear of violating The Stepien Rule. That’s any pick. A Phoenix pick or the worst one of any number of teams, Jones is good.

That’s the flexibility the Suns created here. And it’s probably just enough to get things moving with trading for Jimmy Butler and possibly another move alongside that one.

Now, convincing Bradley Beal to approve a trade…Well, that’s another story for another day.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: None

Before this deal, the Jazz were sitting on a bundle of first-round picks that could have totaled 14 over the next seven drafts. That sounds great, until you factor in that Utah already has 10 players on long-term contracts. That includes three rookies drafted last season, and an additional three players that were drafted in 2023.

Essentially: Utah is as stocked with young talent as a team can reasonably be. They didn’t need that many additional bites at the apple.

Instead, the Jazz retained the best and first bites at the apple over a few years, while adding a potentially really juicy whole apple several years from now.

Keeping it really simple: This trade was about trading quantity for potential quality for Utah. The Jazz happened to have extra picks in the years where the Suns really needed some picks. And Danny Ainge took those extra picks, added “least favorable” conditions to them to protect his haul, and picked up a first-round pick that could have great value.

While Ainge has earned his criticism for always “being close” to trading for various superstars over the years, no one can knock his ability to maximize draft capital. Ainge did it twice when rebuilding the Boston Celtics, and has brought that same approach to the Jazz.

We have no idea what the Suns will be in 2031. They could be deep into a rebuild. They could have flipped high-salary players and already rebuilt. They could keep things rolling and maintain being a playoff team all the way through.

But there’s a chance that 2031 pick could be awesome. Utah gave up a couple of extra picks that are likely to be in the 20s. That’s worth it for the shot at whatever current seventh-grader might be the next Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg. Danny Ainge has won before playing the long-game. He’s setting up to do it again.

 

Scott AllenJanuary 20, 2025

Sepp Straka wins The American Express. Straka earns $1.58 million bringing his 2025 on-course earnings to $1.9 million and his career on-course earnings to $23.8 million. 

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