With deferrals on everybody’s mind, we thought it was a good time to bring to light all active MLB contracts that contain deferred compensation. The following is a look at 12 players, the total value of their contract, the calculated “present-day” value after deferrals, and the amount of cash that was deferred.

Rafael Devers (Red Sox, 3B)

Total Value: 10 years, $313,500,000
Present-Day Value: $291,526,861
Deferrals: $75,000,000

Devers signed his big payday the January prior to his final arbitration season in Boston. He scored a $20M signing bonus (paid $5M each of the first four seasons), while also agreeing to defer $75M (24%) of his $313.5M pact. Devers will earn $3.75M every February 1st & November 30th from 2034 thru 2043. The accounting saves Boston $2,197,314 against their tax payroll annually.

Chris Sale (Red Sox, SP)

Total Value: 5 years, $145,000,000
Present-Day Value: $128,000,000
Deferrals: $50,000,000

34% ($50, $10M annually) of Chris Sale’s 2019 extension in Boston was deferred until 2035, saving the Red Sox $3.4M against their CBT payroll every year. The 34-year-old is entering the final guaranteed season of this contract, with a $20M club option available for 2025 ($5M would be deferred to 2040 if it’s exercised).

Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers, SP/DH)

Total Value: 10 years, $700,000,000
Present-Day Value: $460,814,760
Deferrals: $680,000,000

Like the deal as a whole, Ohtani’s deferrals are unprecedented, as the 29-year-old agreed to push 97% of this contract out to 2034 in terms of cash payments. The move lowers the present day value of the contract by nearly $240M, dropping his annual CBT salary down nearly $24M in the process ($70M down to $46,081,476).

Mookie Betts (Dodgers, 2B/OF)

Total Value: 12 years, $365,000,000
Present-Day Value: $306,657,882
Deferrals: $115,000,000

5 months after the Dodgers acquired Betts from Boston, and 4 months before he would hit the open market for the first time, LA extended the MVP out another 12 seasons. 31.5% of that contract ($115M) was deferred until 2033, where Betts stands to earn between $8M-$11M annually each July 1st through 2044 (when he’ll be 51 years old). The move dropped Betts’ annual CBT salary from $30.41M per year, down to $25.5M per year.

Freddie Freeman (Dodgers, 1B)

Total Value: 6 years, $162,000,000
Present-Day Value: $148,195,494
Deferrals: $57,000,000

The Dodgers were able to secure Freeman away from the Braves by tacking on a 6th year that Atlanta refused to give into. In return, Freeman agreed to defer 35% of his new contract, lowering a potential $27M tax salary down to $24.7M. Freeman will see $4M each July 1st from 2028 through 2040 due to the deferred compensation.

Christian Yelich (Brewers, OF)

Total Value: 9 years, $215,000,000
Present-Day Value: $187,000,000
Deferrals: $28,000,000

The Brewers couldn’t wait to extend Yelich, adding on 7 years, $188.5M to an already in place 2 year, $26.5M contract (leftover from his extension with Miami). The new deal contained $28M of deferred compensation (14.8%), lowering his annual CBT salary by over $3M. Yelich will earn $2.3M each July 1st from 2031 through 2042.

Francisco Lindor (Mets, SS)

Total Value: 10 years, $341,000,000
Present-Day Value: $338,000,000
Deferrals: $50,000,000

Lindor’s megadeal in Queens included 14.6% ($50M) of deferred compensation, lowering his annual CBT salary from $34.1M, down to $33.8M for the Mets. In return, Lindor will earn $5M each July 1st from 2032 through 2041.

Edwin Diaz (Mets, RP)

Total Value: 5 years, $102,000,000
Present-Day Value: $93,000,000
Deferrals: $26,500,000

The largest relief pitcher contract in MLB history (for now) includes nearly 26% cash deferred, dropping the present-day value of the deal down to $93M, lowering his annual CBT salary from $20.4M to $18.6M. Diaz will earn $2.65M each July 1st from 2033 through 2042.

J.T. Realmuto (Phillies, C)

Total Value: 5 years, $115,000,000
Present-Day Value: $114,900,000
Deferrals: $10,000,000

While Realmuto agreed to defer $10M of his $20M salary for the 2021 season (to aid the Phillies cash flow coming out of the COVID season), the process did not create any adjustment to his overall CBT value. Realmuto will receive a $5M cash payment July 15th of 2026 & 2027, once his 5 year deal is completed after the 2025 season.

Nolan Arenado (Cardinals, 3B)

Total Value: 7 years, $214,000,000*
Present-Day Value: $183,333,330
Deferrals: $50,000,000

Arenado’s full contract chimes in at 8 years, $260M, signed with the Rockies back in February of 2019. However the deferred portion of this deal didn’t come into play until Colorado traded the annual Gold Glover to St. Louis. On top of the Rockies retaining $51M of cash per the trade, Arenado agreed to $50M of his remaining $199M (25%) with St. Louis. When the math all comes together, Arenado accounts for $25.5M against the Cardinals’ CBT annually through 2026. 

Patrick Corbin (Nationals, SP)

Total Value: 6 years, $140,000,000
Present-Day Value: $135,000,000
Deferrals: $10,000,000

Corbin’s 6 year contract (which comes to a close after 2024) contained a $10M deferral of his $35M base salary for the upcoming season. His tax salary drops from $23.3M to $22.5M in Washington this year.

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals, SP)

Total Value: 7 years, $245,000,000
Present-Day Value: $228,900,000
Deferrals: $80,000,000

$80M (32.6%) of Strasburg’s $245M free agent contract with the Nationals is deferred at $26.6M each July 1st of 2027, 2028, & 2029. The accounting move was simply a cash adjustment, as the Nationals gained no CBT benefit on this contract  ($35M per year), that runs through the 2026 season, despite Strasburg likely not being able to pitch again (injury).

Is this not entertaining enough for you baseball writers? You asked for Shohei Ohtani to be a better ambassador for the sport during this free agency tour. He kept his mouth shut, asked everyone around the process to do the same - then broke the economic wall with a contract structure that has local news anchors trying to decipher the CBT portion of the CBA on 5AM Wake Up broadcasts.

Money talks. Especially when you forgo 97% of it until a later date.

I chuckled at the initial report that Shohei Ohtani himself was the one who initiated the deferral package idea. It’s commonplace for credit to be thrown around as a way to coddle certain situations.

Then the details of the deferral package were uncovered. Not only is there nothing to laugh about anymore - but to say that anyone but Ohtani (and his agent Nez Balelo) deserves credit here would be a disrespect. Did the Dodgers float the idea of utilizing deferred compensation to lower his annual CBT rate and help a winning team stay competitive? Of course - and so did every single one of the other 8-12 teams who may have actually sniffed at this engagement.

But deferrals in MLB are a two way street, and more often than not, the player, his agent, and certainly his financial advisor(s), are the ones that pull the plug on long-term contracts that contain significant deferrals. Why? Money now please before it disintegrates with the rest of the economy in 10 years.

That’s not to say this doesn’t happen - it happens plenty. But no major American sports contract has ever been signed to this total value, with this average salary, only to have 97% of it sent away for a decade. Everything about Shohei Ohtani’s 10 year, $700M contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers is historic, and we do our best to detail it all here.

The Total Value Contract

Unprecedented. Ohtani will earn $700M over the next 20 years, fully guaranteed. We’ve heard nothing yet about any additional incentives being built in, so for now, this remains the base and max value of the contract.

Ohtani’s deal is $237.5M more than any other contract in the history of baseball, surpassing his old teammate Mike Trout ($426.5M), and new teammate Mookie Betts ($365M).

The Dodgers now have Ohtani, Betts, & Freddie Freeman on the books for over $1.2B in total guaranteed contract. There will be plenty of franchises that won’t spend that kind of money on their entire payroll for the next 5 years combined.

For context, the Atlanta Braves have been famously aggressive in signing their young talent to contract extensions over the past few offseasons. Here’s what $700M (precisely) has bought them:

Austin Riley through 2032 ($212M)
Matt Olson through 2030 ($168M)
Ronald Acuna Jr. through 2028 ($100M)
Spencer Strider through 2029 ($75M)
Sean Murphy through 2028 ($73M)
Michael Harris II through 2032 ($72M)

The Total Contract Average Salary

We need to word things in this manner because of the wild deferral structure (see below), but the base average annual salary on this contract comes in at a clean $70M for reporting purposes.

That’s $26.7M more than the previous leaders in the clubhouse, Justin Verlander & Max Scherzer ($43.3M). It’s Aaron Judge’s $40M per year salary as a position player, plus another $30M for his services as a starting pitcher.

Even if we think about it as a $35M split - it still seems relatively low, right? Ohtani has done enough at the plate to warrant becoming the highest paid batter in baseball. And while his pitching resume as a whole doesn’t scream annual Cy Young, a player with his numbers, hitting the open market as an available starting pitcher, would have commanded near top of the market money. It’s just how the league works.

The Deferrals

We knew this contract wouldn’t come without crazy - and we got plenty of it in regards to the deferral package.

Ohtani himself agreed to defer $68M of his $70M salary annually, without interest, into 2034-2043. That’s right, he’ll “only” be taking in $2M cash per year, or $20M total from the Dodgers over the next 10 seasons. Once this current contract is completed in 2033, Ohtani will earn $68M every July 1st from 2034- 2043. Take that Bobby Bonilla.

The future ramifications are significant in a variety of ways, possibly most notably from a personal tax perspective. The $680M deferred will become income based on wherever he resides in 2034 and beyond - so not necessarily a high income tax state like California. Shohei has afforded himself an opportunity to control his losses a bit with this deferral package.

Of course everyone with an eye for economics is screaming out loud this morning, as Ohtani’s deferral structure breaks the cardinal financial rule: Money today is always much more valuable than money down the road. I’m going to go out on a limb here though and claim that a financial package of $680M, plus Ohtani’s ability to earn upwards of $50M per year from endorsements, sponsorships, etc… allow him to break a few economic guidelines here and there.

One more thing, because I had to look for myself just to make sure this wouldn’t be a thing. If you’re wondering if what Ohtani & the Dodgers are doing here should be contested by the league or other owners - the current collective bargaining agreement says otherwise.

So this isn’t necessarily a loophole - it’s just not something a player has ever agreed to do on this level. Deferred contracts happen by the dozen every offseason, but never at a 97% clip, and certainly never to the tune of $680M.

The Annual Cash Salary

Yes, the Dodgers are really only paying Shohei Ohtani $2M cash per year for the next 10 years. That's the levity of what he's done here with this contract structure. Just how low of a number is that? The league minimum for MLB this season will chime in at $740,000, just $1.26M less than Ohtani's salary. That minimum will rise into the 800s by 2030, closing the gap even more. Most players going through their first trip of arbitration this winter will lock in a salary north of $2M. Hell, even the Oakland Athletics are paying someone more than $2M this year (ok it's only 1, Aledmys Diaz, $8M, and they'll definitely trade him by August).

The Luxury Tax Impact

Thanks to an historic deferral package, Ohtani’s $700M total value contract is downsized to $460,814,760 in terms of its present day value. Which now means that over 10 years, Shohei Ohtani’s luxury tax salary will drop from $70M, to $46,081,476. It’s still the highest in the history of baseball - but now only by $2.75M - instead of $26.7M.

With Ohtani on the books at this figure, the Dodgers’ projected 40-Man CBT Payroll currently stands at $218M, $19M under the original threshold for 2024, and almost $80M below the top “super-tax” threshold of $297M. In other words, the Dodgers can do plenty more here this offseason to continue to build around their star-studded lineup.

Career Earnings Outlook

If we assume this will be Shohei Ohtani’s last contract (he’ll be 38 years old at the time of its expiration), and we of course factor in all the deferral payments, Ohtani will walk away with $742,269,259 in total on-field earnings.

Alex Rodriguez ($455,159,552) currently stands as the highest earning player in MLB history right now, and will remain there until the year 2030, when Mike Trout will surpass him ($480,440,125). Assuming Trout’s career falls off thereafter, Manny Machado should take over the top spot in 2033 ($490,560,896).

Ohtani should eclipse everybody by 2040, when his deferral payments take him well north of $500M - and continue on for 3 more years.

The 2024 Yankees took a page out of their own history books last night when they acquired one of the biggest fish in the ocean, pulling in OF Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres.

The long rumored move became finalized as a 7 player swap, with New York also acquiring defensive specialized outfielder Trent Grisham (CF) as well. The Yankees give up four pitchers and a catcher in return, sacrificing a good chunk of their youth to secure one of the games’ premier left handed power bats.

The Juan Soto Piece

Barely 25-year-old Juan Soto has now been traded twice in the past 16 months. He left Washington as they ripped off their band-aid post a 2019 World Series Championship, and now appears to be a casualty of major cost cutting beginning in San Diego. The Padres moving on from Soto signals a belief that they didn’t have the horsepower or capital to keep him around for the long term. Soto has long been rumored to approach a $500M contract when free agency comes around, and now the Yankees will get a crack at keeping him off of the open market.

2024 Compensation
While many outlets are projecting that Juan Soto will earn more than $30M in 2024, his final season of arbitration, our math downgrades him slightly to around $27M. Logic says that the Yankees won’t screw around too much here, wanting to immediately start this relationship off on a positive note. Shohei Ohtani’s $30M salary to avoid arbitration with the Angels last year is the number to look at, and New York likely offers him slightly above that to avoid a hearing next spring.

Long Term Extension
Generally, when Scott Boras’ clients get this close to free agency, extension conversations are all but halted. But Soto (and Boras) have to see how nice of a fit this organization, and respective ballpark, should be for the foreseeable future.

Mathematically speaking, Juan Soto projects to a 12 year, $408M contract in our system, or a flat $34M per year. This coincides with our $27M projection for his arbitration 4 salary. If we increase that value to $31M as noted above, an adjusted extension projection would come in at 12 years, $468M, or $39M per year. New teammate Aaron Judge’s $40M per year is the current benchmark for position player AAVs. Soto is 5 ½ years younger than Judge when he took his free agency tour. That alone is worth a few extra million more per year. So again, logic still sees Soto approaching $500M, at somewhere around $41M-$42M per year for 12-13 years in total.

Will that happen immediately? Will the Yankees wanna give it a minute to see exactly what kind of person/player Soto is? Will Soto/Boras still opt to wait the year out, take the free agency tour, and generate a bidding war?

Plenty still to see here.

The Padres Return

The Padres clearly had a mission in mind when they went looking for a trade haul for Soto: Replenish the pitching pool they emptied when they acquired Soto 16 months ago. For the most part, they’ve done an excellent job here, though none of the newly acquired arms currently project to be a top of the rotation starter (yet). Thorpe is the only name of the bunch that won’t begin on the 40-man roster, though he projects to be there by 2025.

RHP Drew Thorpe

2022 2nd Rd (61st); signed for exact slot - $1,187,600

• Yankees #5 prospect; 2023 minor league player of the year
• Projects as a middle of the rotation starter with more upside if he can add velocity; good secondaries + strong command

RHP Michael King

Reliever turned starter (9 GS in 2023)

• Large range of outcomes but likely enters season as SP3 behind Yu Darvish & Joe Musgrove.
• Projects to a $3.1M salary in 2024, his 2nd of 3 arbitration years, 2026 free agent.

RHP Jhony Brito

Middle Reliever with swingman starter potential

• Signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015 for $35,000
• Started 13 games for the Yankees in 2023, his first MLB season.
• Enters 2024 with .113 service time, allowing for 5 more years of team control

RHP Randy Vasquez

Projects to make the Padres 2024 starting rotation for now

• Signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018 for $10,000
• Started 5 games for the Yankees in 2023, his first MLB season
• Enters 2024 with .041 service time, allowing for 5 more years of team control

C Kyle Higashioka

Should compete for the everyday catching role with Luis Campusano

• Projects to make $2.2M in his final year of arbitration; 2025 UFA
• Replaces Gary Sanchez: Offensive downgrade, Defensive upgrade

Payroll Updates

In adding Soto & Grisham, the Yankees have brought over an estimated $35M of cash/tax payroll for the 2024 season. They now carry around $280M in tax salary, against a $237M league threshold. Assuming they continue to add a few pieces without any notable subtractions, this is setting up to be a $300M+ franchise for the upcoming season.

The Padres relinquished that $35M of salary from Soto/Grisham, bringing back an estimated $7M for 4 players (King, Brito, Vasquez, Higashioka). Higashioka is the only player here without multi-year control. San Diego now carries a $204M estimated tax payroll with 33 players on their 40-man roster. There’s room to add in small chunks here if the plan is to stay competitive but also stay under the $237M threshold.


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2024 Free Agency

As we head down the home stretch of the 2023 regular season, one of the more polarizing stories to watch might be the finish of the Green Bay Packers, and more notably, of Jordan Love.

Love began the year with two outstanding performances, throwing for 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 118 Passer Rating. He backed that up however with 5 weeks averaging a 66 rating, with 8 picks against 5 TD passes.

But November and early December have been different stories. Despite notable injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Love appears to be settling into the offensive plan, and the speed of the NFL game.

The Packers have now won 4 out of their last 5 games, including a very strong victory against Kansas City this past Sunday night, putting their chances to make the playoffs at or around 70%. This leads us back to his newly restructured contract, which came loaded with $9M worth of salary escalators for 2024, based on a variety of mechanisms. We’ll take a snapshot look at each of these thresholds as we near the finish line.

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Jordan Love's 2 year, $15.8M contract breakdown

Jordan Love’s $9M of Incentives 

Pro Bowl Selection: $1M

3 QBs are selected per conference. At this point it seems unlikely that Love will be one of the Top 3 NFC QBs honored (Prescott, Hurts, Goff, Purdy likely ahead of him). But it’s inconceivable.

65% Offensive Regular Season Snaps: $500,000

At the time of this piece, Love has taken over 99% of the Packers’ snaps this season. Barring injury, this escalator should be a lock.

Team Success Escalators

Love will add an extra $1M to his 2024 salary if one of three things occurs

• 10 Regular Season Wins (65% snaps) OR

• Playoff Berth (65% snaps) OR

• Top 10 Passers Rating & Top 10 in TD Passes (65% Snaps)

The Packers are 6-6 headed into Week 14, with 5 games remaining. They currently hold a 70% chance to make the playoffs. Love is currently 16th in Passer Rating, and 6th in TD Passes. It seems highly likely that one of these triggers will vest.

Playoff Escalators

The Packers currently hold a 70% chance to make the playoffs, and Love has currently taken over 99% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps this season. 

• 65% Regular Season Snaps + Playoff Berth: $500,000

• 1 Playoff Win (65% Snaps): $500,000

• Conference Title Win (65% Snaps): $1M

• Super Bowl Win (65% Snaps): $1M

Statistical Escalators

Love is currently 16th in Passer Rating, 28th in Completion %, 6th in TD Passes, & 12th in Passing Yards. 

• 65% Snaps & Top 10 Passer Rating: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 10 Completion %: $500,000

• Top 10 Touchdown Passes: $500,000

• Top 10 Passing Yards: $500,000

More Statistical Escalators

Love can earn a maximum of $1.5M from this group (or 3 out of 4). He’s currently 16th in Passer Rating, 28th in Completion %, 6th in TD Passes, & 12th in Passing Yards, on track to max out this escalator.

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passer Rating: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Completion %: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passing Yards: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passing TDs: $500,000

Assessing Love’s 2024 Compensation

As it currently stands, Jordan Love is guaranteed a $5.5M base salary in 2024, with a $500,000 workout bonus also likely to be earned. His base (P5) salary will increase with any incentive that is met from 2023, up to $9M new, or $15.5M in total.

Running through the above list, Love is currently on pace to earn $2.5M based on playing time and production alone. If the Packers make the playoffs, that number immediately jumps up to $4M, and will increase from there based on playoff wins.

The only other metrics to monitor closely appear to be Passing Yards (currently 12th, a Top 10 would secure him $500,000 more), and a Pro Bowl Selection ($1M).

With a 70% chance to make the playoffs, we’ll assume that Love is on pace for at least $4M escalator right now, increasing his 2024 compensation up to $10M.

So here’s the 100 million dollar question? If Jordan Love takes the Packers to the playoffs in his first full season, after restructuring his rookie deal to make life easier for Green Bay in the interim, should he be comfortable playing out this contract through 2024 - or will it immediately become time to sit down and negotiate a long-term, financially appropriate extension?

The Jimmy Garoppolo Conversation

One of the better comparisons to be made here might be Jimmy Garoppolo, who was traded from New England to San Francisco at the 2017 deadline, started 5 games for the Niners to finish off the season, then signed a 5 year, $137.5M extension prior to hitting free agent the following February. Garoppolo's $27.5M per year average was actually the largest in all of football at the time of the extension, and the contract was heavily front-loaded to benefit the Niners, who were in a funky financial window at the time. Looking at it differently, the $27.5M average salary represented 15.5% of the NFL Salary Cap that season. If we project that out to 2024, with a projected $240M league cap, that 15.5% metric would bring forth a $38M average salary.

In other words, if the Packers want to get comfortable with Jordan Love as their QB for a few seasons, Daniel Jones' 4 year, $160M contract with the Giants appears to be the starting point this offseason. Green Bay may very well opt to slow play this another year to further assess their QB1, rebuild a few important positions on the roster, and utilize a franchise tag in 2025 as needed.

Questions surrounding Von Miller’s current & future status with the Buffalo Bills have ramped up since news broke of his alleged off-field legal issues that surfaced during the Bills Week 13 Bye Week.

Assuming nothing, here are a few notable notes surrounding Miller’s contract & where things could be headed in the coming weeks.

Remaining Contract

Miller has $500,000 of 2023 compensation left to be paid out. $75,000 of that is tied to per-game-active bonuses, so if Miller misses games due to injury or if by chance he’s placed on an exempt list, he’ll forfeit $15,000 per week missed.

After 2023, the contract holds 4 years, $80M remaining, though only $10.71M of that is fully guaranteed at this time. If Miller is on the active roster next March, the remaining $6.435M of his 2024 salary will become fully guaranteed.

After 2024, none of Miller’s compensation contains an early vesting guarantee.

Buffalo’s Ability to Get Out of this Contract

If this situation escalates to a point that the Bills decide to move on, there are a few scenarios to explore.

Buffalo doesn’t wait around, releasing Miller immediately (extremely unlikely)
The Bills would need to pay Miller the rest of his 2023 salary, & $10.71M of his 2024 salary - immediately, or $11.1M. Buffalo would take on an $18.6M dead cap hit in 2023, & a $21.8M dead cap hit in 2024. The Bills don’t have the cap space to make this move right now.

The Bills release Miller next March before any NFL Punishment is Handed Down
Without any punishment from the league, things don’t change a whole lot with this contract in the offseason. The thinking here would be that Buffalo is simply trying to get out of this contract before the remaining $6.435M of 2024 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Without a Post June 1st Designation, Buffalo would take on a $32.5M dead cap hit (including $10.71M cash), which would represent an $8.6M cap loss for 2024.

A Post June 1st Designation would mean $17.084M of 2024 dead cap ($10.71M cash), & another $15.4M of 2025 dead cap. This would free up $6.8M of cap space for the Bills next year, but not until June 2nd.

Von Miller is Suspended by the NFL
The NFL usually doesn’t act on a situation like this until the legal process has been carried out. Long story short here though, if the NFL suspends Miller for violating the Personal Conduct policy, any future salary guarantee on his contract will void. For now, that would mean the $10.71M of 2024 salary, but any resolution or judgment with this issue isn’t likely to be passed down by March, so for practical purposes, we’re talking about Miller’s full $17,145,000 2024 salary here.

If Miller is suspended at any point in time before Week 1 of the 2024 season, the Bills will be able to bypass the $17.145M salary, instead taking on $21.79M of dead cap to release him ($6.3M in 2024, $15.4M in 2025 if Post June 1st).

If Miller is suspended but the Bills decide to keep him for the 2024 season, he stands to forfeit $967,500 per Week missed (base salary & per game active roster bonus).

A Cap Conundrum for Buffalo

Here’s an item that probably isn’t getting too much attention just yet - but it’s important for the Bills. Brandon Beane designed Miller’s contract to function as a signing bonus payment for Year 1, a roster bonus payment for Year 2, and a high base salary payment for Year 3. The Bills converted all of his 2023 roster bonus into signing bonus last March to free up over $10.6M of cap space for them to operate with.

The plan (assumedly) for 2024 was very similar. Buffalo would be able to convert nearly $16M of Miller’s base salary into signing bonus, freeing up $12.74M of cap space for the 2024 offseason. However, with a suspension possibly looming here, and a subsequent void of Miller’s salary guarantee attached to it, Brandon Beane will almost certainly NOT convert any of Miller’s compensation into signing bonus this March, meaning they will be forced to carry his $23.8M cap hit until further notice.

Could the Bills pay look to recoup signing bonus if Miller is suspended? This is an easier said than done proposition unfortunately, often dragged out into a long litigation process. The Bills are much better off playing the waiting game here, and leaving themselves an opportunity to forego the 2024 salary payment.

What About the Commissioner’s Exempt List?

Oftentimes when a player is dealing with an off-field incident that leaves him (and his respective team) in limbo, the NFL will step in and place the player on the Commissioner’s Exempt List.

However, placing a player on this list does not impact his ability to earn salary, nor does it reduce his salary cap figure. In essence, the player has been placed on “paid leave”, which opens a roster spot for a team, but offers little to no other benefit. 

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with a look at the pending Wide Receiver market set to unfold next March, highlighted by the likes of Mike Evans (TB), Tee Higgins (CIN) & Michael Pittman Jr. (IND). Dive into our look at 10 receivers eyeing big paydays either from their current repsective teams, or on the open market in the coming months, plus a few notable names trending toward the Roster Bubble in 2024, and couple of situations to be monitored closely in the coming weeks.

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Pending Free Agents

Mike Evans (Buccaneers, 30)

Market Value: $23.5M (4 years, $94M)

He just keeps doing it. Evans is on pace for his record-setting 10th straight 1,000 yard season in Tampa, who failed to reach an extension with their WR1 before the start of the 2023 season. He projects to a 4 year, $94M contract in our system as he heads toward free agency for the first time.

Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts, 26)

Market Value: $22.5M (4 years, $90M)

After a slow start to his career, Pittman has really come on strong as he approaches free agency for the first time - despite a world of inconsistency at the QB position in Indy. With Anthony Richardson the short term answer there, and Jonathan Taylor locked up for at least 2 more seasons, keeping Pittman in the fold seems a no-brainer for this franchise. It might take an overpay to do so however (upwards of $25M per year).

Tee Higgins (Bengals, 25)

Market Value: $16.5M (4 years, $66M)

A hamstring injury has dampened Higgins’ stock heading toward free agency, but there’s still a very real world where he’s identified as the best available pass catcher on the open market next March. With Joe Burrow under contract, and Ja'Marr Chase extension eligible this winter, can the Bengals find a way to fit it all in? 

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars, 28)

Market Value: $17M (4 years, $68M)

Ridley hasn’t consistently been able to stand out as a top weapon in Jacksonville, which follows suit to his time in Atlanta (behind future HOF Julio Jones). The good news? He’s finding the end zone, his Yards/Reception (14.1) are back near the top of the league, and he’s in an offense that can afford to keep him - and will continue to target him relentlessly. Ridley’s production aligns well with teammate Christian Kirk, whose $18M per year represented 8.6% of the 2022 salary cap. If we project this math out to 2024, Ridley could be seeking a $21M per year deal.

Marquise Brown (Cardinals, 26)

Market Value: $14.8M (4 years, $59.5M)

Brown hasn’t risen to WR1 levels despite a few opportunities to do so, but he’s been consistently productive as a player living a tier or so below that. There’s plenty of money to be had for living in that world. Will Arizona bring back Brown and pair him with the ultra dangerous Marvin Harrison Jr. next May? Kyler Murray probably votes yes.

Gabriel Davis (Bills, 24)

Market Value: $13.5M (4 years, $54M)

The advanced metrics have never been on his side, and the Bills Mafia has been trying to replace him from their couches for the better part of two seasons now, but Davis has shown plenty of flashes that he can be a capable 2nd or 3rd option in a top passing offense. He’s a $13.5M player in our system in his current role, but is there a world where he’s valued more with a change of scenery? Age is very much on his side for that here.

Noah Brown (Texans, 27)

Market Value: $5.6M (3 years, $16.8M)

The sample size this year is small (5 out of 12 weeks at the time of this piece), but all signs point to a considerable breakout from the former 7th round pick out of Dallas. Houston brought in Brown on a 1 year, $2.6M tender this March, but will likely need to triple that price to keep him around longer.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals, 29)

Market Value: $8.7M (3 years, $26M)

The 2016 2nd rounder is completing his 8th season in Cincinnati, proving to be as valuable as ever filling in for the injured Tee Higgins. With Joe Burrow now under contract, Ja’Mar Chase’s extension looming and Higgins/Boyd both slated for free agency this March - something is going to have to give. He’s an $8M-$9M player in our system, but Adam Thielen’s $14M guarantee should very much be in play here.

Odell Beckham, Jr. (Ravens, 31)

Market Value: $12M (1 year, $12M)

Beckham hasn’t been a huge part of the Baltimore offense from a numbers standpoint, but when asked to do a job - he’s more than responded. The 15.1 yards per catch is Top 20 in the league, but more importantly, the 30-something receiver can still create separation against top defenses. All of this added up is a good recipe for solid pay on the open market, though incentives and per game bonuses are likely to be a big part of any deal he signs from here out.

Curtis Samuel (Commanders, 27)

Market Value: $11.5M (3 years, $34.5M)

Samuel signed a 3 year, $34.5M free agent contract with Washington back in 2021. 2 ½ seasons later that’s exactly what the math says he could be eyeing next march on the open market. Early injuries really hampered his first impression in Washington, but the shifty, versatile receiver has really held up his end of the contract since then. 

Notable Bubble Potentials

Mike Williams (Chargers, 29)

Williams suffered a Torn ACL in Week 3, finishing his 2023 campaign and putting his contract on notice. The Chargers can free up $20M of cap space by moving on before March 15th.

Michael Gallup (Cowboys, 27)

Gallup’s role has been reduced immensely in 2023, the final year of his upfront guarantees. While a $9.5M cash salary/$13.85M cap hit in 2024 isn’t too daunting, the Cowboys are going to need to trim off some fat to hit big deals for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and an offensive lineman or two. This is a tradable contract if he’s healthy next March.

Hunter Renfrow (Raiders, 27)

Renfrow’s cash and cap hits stay relatively neutral next year ($11.8M/$13.7M respectively), but he’s only been targeted 22 times in 12 games at the time of this piece. It seems the organization has already begun to write him off.

Allen Robinson (Steelers, 30)

Pittsburgh swapped 7th round picks to take a flier on Robinson this season, but he’s only been targeted 23 times at the time of this piece. It’s tough to imagine the franchise keeping him at a $10M cash, $12M cap hit next season.

Also Worth Mentioning

Davante Adams (Raiders, 30)

If the Raiders have to reset their coaching staff again after 2023, the core players are bound to get restless. Adams has already been linked to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets for 2024, so let’s at least play out that scenario financially. A Pre June 1st trade means $16.76M of cap loss for Las Vegas. In most cases, it would be recommended that they wait until June 1st, split up the $31.5M of dead cap across two years, and take the $23M+ of savings next season. But if the plan is to disengage, the smarter move may be to take as much dead weight on as possible next season, making it a purge year for the organization.

Stefon Diggs (Bills, 30)

There’s no world where Brandon Beane and the Bills want to remove Diggs from their roster anytime soon - but he’s one of the most competitive, outspoken players in the game. If the Bills’ 2023 campaign continues to nosedive, it wouldn’t be an ounce of surprise to learn that Diggs has requested a trade out of Buffalo at some point this offseason. With $31M dead cap against a $27.8M 2024 cap hit, it wouldn’t behoove the Bills to make any such move until after June 1st ($19M of savings at that point), so don’t expect this type of transaction to dominate the March wire - if at all.

Keenan Allen (Chargers, 31)

Allen is still producing at a ridiculous level, but he’ll be entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn $23.1M cash against a league-high $34.7M cap hit. With so many question marks surrounding this Chargers’ franchise heading into the offseason, will an extension for the near 32-year-old be in the cards? If not, trade talks could pick up steam sooner rather than later.

It’s never too early to start thinking about 2024, and what better way to do so than with a dive into Quarterback contracts. This time, we’ll detail just the guaranteed money that currently exists on each player’s deal (noting wherever needed that certain triggers could add more to that figure in the coming months). We’ve broken up this group into 6 categories for you: All Good, Ready to Parlay, Grab Popcorn, The Deshaun Watson Category, Potentially Annoying, & No Current Guarantees.

ALL GOOD

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs, 28, $204.15M)

Mahomes’ restructured deal is complex, so putting a singular “future guarantee” number out is a bit convoluted, but it’s fair to make the next 4 seasons guaranteed for practical purposes. Expect KC to chop up that $57.3M cap hit for 2024 quite a bit in order to keep a few defensive players and maybe add a weapon or two offensively next March. All good in KC.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles, 25, $155M)

Hurts is near/at the top of the MVP list heading toward the home stretch and he’s manning arguably the best team in all of football. His 2024 cap hit rings in at just $13.5M thanks to 5 prorated bonuses built into the deal. It’s all good in Philly.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens, 26, $105M)

Lamar is manning the best team in the AFC and playing good, smart football in the process. Jackson is fully guaranteed through 2025, with practical structure keeping him in the fold through 2026. He’ll only be 29 years old at that time. All good in Baltimore.

Russell Wilson (Broncos, 34, $76M)

It’s a modern miracle that Wilson gets categorized here after we all (ourselves included) tried to run him out of the league 10 months ago. But the Broncos are the hottest team in football, their coach appears to be worth every penny, and Wilson looks as capable a QB1 as he has in 3 seasons. There’s simply no reason to doubt this situation for 2024 right now, even if the $76M due over 2024/2025 seems gaudy.

Josh Allen (Bills, 27, $65M)

Allen and the Bills have had plenty of up and downs this season, and change in some capacity is forthcoming - but not with the QB1 position. All of Allen’s $30M due next year is guaranteed, & $35M of 2025 compensation will fully lock by March 17th. It’s not all good in Buffalo, but Allen is.

C.J. Stroud (Texans, 22, $12.1M)

No single player has gone from 0 to 100 this year quite like Stroud has, who continues to impress more and more on a weekly basis. He won't become extension eligible until after 2025, and Houston should carry Top 5 cap space heading into March. It’s been awhile, but it’s all good in Houston.

READY TO PARLAY

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins, 25, $23.1M)

Tua has answered every bell this season (thus far), and can certainly further his status with a healthy postseason run in the coming weeks. He’s the #3 overall graded QB according to PFF right now, carrying a $50.2M valuation in our system to date. 

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars, 24, $5.6M)

Jacksonville will exercise Lawrence’s 5th-Year-Option for 2025 this spring, then they’ll work on extending him to most likely one of the Top 3 largest contracts in NFL history. He’s a $50M per year player in our system right now.

GRAB POPCORN

Kyler Murray (Cardinals, 26, $90.8M)

For all intents and purposes, Murray looks great and should easily be sharpied in as Arizona’s 2024 Week 1 starter. However, any team carrying a Top 3 draft pick (currently #2 overall) has to at least be considered for going in a different direction. Until Marvin Harrison Jr. is selected to be Kyler’s new toy, this is at least a situation worth mentioning.

Daniel Jones (Giants, 26, $35.5M)

Jones completed successful surgery on his torn ACL earlier last week, putting his timeline to return at around 8-10 months. During that timespan, the Giants are very likely to select his pending replacement. It’s possible that Jones has played his last snap for the Giants, who may very well pay him $35.5M next season to act as a backup QB, but only time will tell.

Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders, 32, $11.25M)

Garoppolo was benched in favor of Aidan O'Connell as the calendar turned to November, and - for a few reasons - it appears to be a point of no return. First, while Garoppolo’s $11.25M roster bonus for next March is already 100% fully guaranteed, his $11.25M base salary is guaranteed for injury. In other words, if Garoppolo were to suffer an injury this year that would preclude him from passing a physical next March, that salary would then be considered guaranteed as well. Second, O’Connell continues to improve, and should be given the remainder of 2023 to begin his assessment process. Garopollo’s deal doesn’t appear to be tradable right now, meaning the Raiders will likely release him out of this contract, paying him the $11.25M roster bonus, taking on a $28.3M dead cap hit either all at once, or split across 2024/2025.

Zach Wilson (Jets, 24, $5.4M)

Will Wilson be kept around to backup Aaron Rodgers in 2024? Logic says his benching to make way for Tim Boyle has already answered that question, but it will mean releasing the 24 year old with $5.4M cash to be paid on his way out. This doesn’t seem like a situation that can be resolved any other way right now.

Justin Fields (Bears, 24, $3.2M)

Health has cut a big year for Fields nearly in half, but there still have been signs of improvement (especially as it pertains to the passing efficiency numbers). So why is he here at all? At the time of this piece, the Bears currently possess the #1 & #4 overall picks in the draft AND Chicago must decide on Fields’ 5th-Year-Option by next May. Fields carries a fully guaranteed $3,233,448 salary for 2024, against a $6M cap hit.

Mac Jones (Patriots, 25, $2.7M)

It certainly seems like it’s over, so now it’s simply a matter of how do the Patriots officially close the book? If Bill Belichick is relieved of his duties, it seems likely that the first order of business for the new GM will be to decline Mac’s 5th-Year-Option and attempt to salvage any sort of late round draft pick from a trade. When that doesn’t happen, Jones may be outright released (earning the $2.7M payment on the way out the door), or kept to compete for a completely unknown QB1 role next season.

THE DESHAUN WATSON CATEGORY

Deshaun Watson (Browns, 28, $138M)

Are the Browns nearly as concerned about this as much as the mass media likes to poke at it? Probably not. In honesty a 28 year old QB with $138M guaranteed remaining on his deal is pretty common stuff these days (if we just overlook how they acquired the QB and how much they’ve paid him to be suspended or injured of course). The Browns are legitimate AFC contenders next year, and if Chubb & Watson return to full health for all 18 weeks, they’ll be a problem for nearly everyone. With that said, we still won’t see another version of this contract indefinitely.

POTENTIALLY ANNOYING

Justin Herbert (Chargers, 25, $201.6M)

There’s still plenty to love here about the player, but Herbert doesn’t appear poised to be able to elevate this current group of Chargers’ weapons. Maybe it’s play calling, maybe it’s the age of many of those weapons, or maybe it’s a ceiling that Herbert has hit. It appears as though plenty of change is coming to the franchise this offseason, so we’ll all get a fresh start with Herbert as he stares down five more years of contract guarantees.

Joe Burrow (Bengals, 26, $173.5M)

Before you run away - we’re in no way saying here that Joe Burrow isn’t worth every dime of his contract right now. However, it’s at least noteworthy to mention that his injury history is starting to pile up a bit, especially if we include his college days.

2017: Right Wrist Fracture
2020: Broken Ribs
2020: ACL/MCL Tear
2022: Appendectomy
2023: Calf Strain
2023: Torn Wrist Ligament

This isn’t to say that most QBs (or NFL players) don’t go through their fair share of injuries, but when we’re dealing with someone who still has $173.5M guaranteed going forward, it’s something to monitor. 31 other teams would still take him tomorrow if offered.

Matthew Stafford (Rams, 35, $41M)

All of Stafford’s $31M salary for 2024 is already fully guaranteed. If he’s on the roster March 15th, $10M of 2025 locks in as well. When healthy, Stafford can still produce at an above average level, though he’ll be looking for Les Snead to find him a few more weapons this offseason. Will 2024 be his last hurrah?

Derek Carr (Saints, 32, $40M)

Carr hasn’t been terrible, but the Saints expected him to improve upon the production that got him benched and subsequently run out of Las Vegas in 2022. He hasn’t, and New Orleans now likely needs to consider their options for 2025 and beyond. That process could very well begin this offseason via the draft. Contractually, Carr is fully guaranteed $30M in 2024, and $10M of his 2025 compensation locks in next March. The latter could very well be a parting gift if the Saints decide to cut bait after 2024.

Aaron Rodgers (Jets, 40, $38.1M)

The Rodgers era in NY was paused almost as quickly as it was started. Will it pick back up before season end? Maybe, but if you follow us on socials you already know our thoughts on that. Assuming he’s 100% healthy heading toward 2024, it should be worth the price of admission to see Rodgers bring his heady style of play to this offense. Maybe the Jets can pick up an extra Offensive Lineman or 5 this spring to help his cause. Rodgers carries a $17M cap hit for 2024 so no adjustments should be necessary.

Bryce Young (Panthers, 22, $12.6M)

Carolina traded their 2024 1st round pick to Chicago, who is currently on the clock with it. They’ve already fired HC Frank Reich, and there may be plenty more change to come from the front office before winter even settles in. Owner David Tepper was reportedly very high on making Young the QB of the future. It seems logical that his next hires will follow that mindset as well.

Anthony Richardson (Colts, 21, $11.5M)

He looks deadly as a versatile athlete, but the passing numbers (59% completions, 87.25 rating in 4 games) were always going to be the metrics to watch. He lands here not because he doesn’t appear able to improve, but because the overall concern was could he remain healthy being this scramble-first player. It’s a tough start to only complete a month in Year 1 with that red flag already attached.

Jordan Love (Packers, 25, $5.5M)

Love appears to have turned a corner with this offense, especially as it pertains to hopeful WR1 Christian Watson. This should be more than enough for Green Bay to swallow a sub $10M cash/cap hit (assuming he hits a few escalators to finish out 2023), and see this thing through 2024 at least. Does he appear to be on track to be Green Bay’s next 20 year QB1? No. Will his 2023 performance preclude the Packers from selecting a QB in the upcoming draft? Maybe. But until they make this contract a problem - it isn’t one.

Kenny Pickett (Steelers, 25, $4.6M)

Nothing Pickett has done across two seasons is jumping off of the page (in fact his overall production in 2023 is going to be a step back from 2022), but he’s winning, and he has trust from Mike Tomlin. That’s as good as gold in this league. Still, how good might this team be with a more capable QB1 at the helm?

Will Levis (Titans, 24, $4M)

All of Levis’ 2024 salary, 2025 salary, & $1.26M of his 2026 salary are fully guaranteed right now. He’s been wildly inconsistent since taking over the reins from Ryan Tannehill, but all signs currently point to him stepping in as the 2024 Week 1 starter.

NO CURRENT FUTURE GUARANTEES

Brock Purdy (49ers, 23)
Purdy has 2 years, $2M remaining on his rookie contract (none of it guaranteed) and can’t sign a contract extension until after 2024. Every other team in football is miserable because of it.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys, 30)
None of the remaining 1 year, $34M left on Dak’s contract is currently guaranteed, but a $5M roster bonus is due March 17th. There’s a $59.5M cap hit waiting for Dallas in 2024, so something needs to be done. It likely includes $200M more guaranteed.

Desmond Ridder (Falcons, 24)
None of Ridder’s remaining 2 years, $2.6M is guaranteed going forward.

Geno Smith (Seahawks, 33)
Smith’s 3 year, $75M contract was really a 1 year, $27.5M deal in terms of guarantee. There’s a $9.6M roster bonus due March 17th, and his entire $12.7M base salary for next season becomes fully guaranteed on that date as well. All $22.3M of that compensation is guaranteed for injury right now (which could become important if Seattle falls out of contention here soon). The Seahawks can free up $13.8M of cap space by moving on from Smith next March.

Jared Goff (Lions, 29)
None of the 1 year, $26.6M remaining on Goff’s contract is currently guaranteed, though a $5M roster bonus is due March 14th. Despite a Thanksgiving stumble, Goff has been one of the more reliable & production QBs of 2023, and still should be considered a more long term option for Detroit going forward. It’s not a lock that they extend him this offseason, but from an optics standpoint it probably makes good business sense.

A Minnesota QB
Kirk Cousins is a pending free agent (with $28.5M of voided dead cap to be left behind), Joshua Dobbs is a pending free agent, & Nick Mullens & Jaren Hall have no future contract guarantees.

A Tampa Bay QB
Baker Mayfield is a pending UFA ($2.3M of voided dead cap to be left behind), and Kyle Trask’s contract through 2024 is non-guaranteed.

A Washington QB
Sam Howell’s rookie deal through 2025 contains no full guarantees, and he can’t sign a contract extension until after 2024. He’s on a 2 year, $2M contract in Washington from here out.

Which players are NFL teams most thankful for this holiday season? Based on Spotrac’s True Value Statistic, these are the players offering the most value against their 2023 compensation through 11 weeks of the NFL season (minimum 50% games).

QUARTERBACKS

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins, 98.65), Brock Purdy (49ers, 93.75), C.J. Stroud (Texans, 93.01)

Honestly, it’s a neck & neck & neck conversation here, as all three currently carry a TVs Rating just north of 93 in our system. Tua is staring down a contract extension next spring, Purdy could find himself in the Super Bowl in a few months, and Stroud is the runaway rookie of the year.

Best Value Veteran: Josh Allen (Bills, 88.49)

RUNNING BACKS

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins, 98.65), Kyren Williams (Rams, 96.53), Brian Robinson (Commanders, 89.59)

No running back has a perfect resume this time of year, but Mostert is absolutely flourishing in this Miami system. He’s on pace for career numbers both as a runner and a pass catcher, and may score 20 total TDs when it’s all said and done.

Next Best Value Veteran: Christian McCaffrey (49ers, 86.51)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions, 99.36), CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys, 99.34), Brandon Aiyuk (49ers, 98.69)

St. Brown (99.36) and Lamb (99.34) are in a virtual value tie heading toward Week 12, and both should be up for significant contract extensions in the coming months. The same might be said for Aiyuk, who is playing out Year 4 of his rookie contract, with an already exercised $14.1M 5th-year-option waiting in 2024.

Best Value Veteran: Tyreek Hill (Dolphins, 91.17)

TIGHT ENDS

Sam LaPorta (Lions, 98.24), George Kittle (49ers, 97.95), Jake Ferguson (Cowboys, 96.70)

LaPorta is on pace for 85 catches, 850 yards, and 7 TDs in his debut season, and could be on a fast track to being the league’s best TE sooner rather than later. Kittle is playing out Year 4 of a 6 year contract in San Francisco, and Ferguson has quickly become one of Dak Prescott’s goto targets in Year 2 of his 4th round rookie contract.

Next Best Value Veteran: Travis Kelce (Chiefs, 96.26)

OFFENSIVE TACKLES

Christian Darrisaw (Vikings, 98.71), Penei Sewell (Lions, 95.49)

The Joshua Dobbs story is fun, but the real reason the Vikings are keeping a crumbling ship afloat may be their offensive line play, beginning with Darrisaw. The 24-year-old becomes extension eligible after 2023. Andrew Thomas’ $23.5M per year; $67M guaranteed is very much in play. Sewell is in a similar boat in Detroit, as the former #t7 overall pick can lock in a rookie extension after this season as well. He’s a franchise talent.

Best Value Veteran: Trenton Brown (NE, 92.48)

GUARDS

Quinn Meinerz (Broncos, 98.21), Greg Van Roten (Raiders, 94.82)

Van Roten signed a near minimum contract to join Las Vegas this past May and has held the fort down nicely. The 31-year-old should have no trouble locking in a new deal next March. Meinerz was a 3rd round pick back in 2021 and has improved every year, culminating with 2023. He becomes extension eligible for the first time after 2023.

Next Best Value Veteran: Graham Glasgow (Lions, 94.40)

CENTERS

Drew Dalman (Falcons, 99.56), Creed Humphrey (Chiefs, 97.22)

Neither Dalman or Humphrey are surprising anyone anymore, as both have had outstanding 2 ½ seasons to begin their careers. Humphrey was the #63 pick in the 2021 draft, while Dalman was selected a few rounds later at #114. Both become extension eligible after 2023 and should be considered strong candidates to reset the center market (($14.25M per year, $42M guaranteed).

Best Value Veteran: Connor Williams (Dolphins, 95.32)

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

Jalen Carter (Eagles, 99.44), Justin Madubuike (Ravens, 98.04)

Carter’s making a strong case to claim Defensive Rookie of the Year in Philly, making plenty of NFL teams regret letting him slip to #9 overall this past May. Madubuike is having a breakout season in a contract year - always a good recipe. He’s an $18.5M player in our system heading toward the offseason.

Best Value Veteran: David Onyemata (Falcons, 93.82)

EDGE DEFENDERS

Micah Parsons (Cowboys, 98.65), A.J. Epenesa (Bills, 99.26)

Parsons continues to do Parsons this in Dallas, and he mathematically projects to a 4 year, $114M extension this offseason. Logic says that numbers needs to be closer to $140M to peak his interest. Epenesa entered 2023 with 9 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in 3 seasons. He enters Week 12 with 6.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception.

Best Value Veteran: Myles Garrett (Browns, 92.34)

LINEBACKERS

Tyrel Dodson (Bills, 97.03), Quincy Williams (Jets, 96,68)

Dodson has had the mammoth task of picking up the slack left by Matt Milano’s injury, and for the most part - he’s held his own. Factor in a minimum $1.01M salary, and Buffalo is getting plenty from the 25-year-old UDFA. Quincy WIlliams might just be the next big star coming out of NY/NJ. Every time the Jets have been thrust into the spotlight this season - Williams has been up to the task. He’s in Year 1 of a 3 year, $18M contract.

Next Best Value Veteran: Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars, 92.22)

CORNERBACKS

DaRon Bland (Cowboys, 99.83), Ja’Quan McMillian (Broncos, 99.49)

Bland has been the gift that keeps on giving in Dallas, and his 5th round rookie contract makes it all a little bit sweeter. He won’t become extension eligible until after 2024. The Broncos secondary is loaded with high priced talent - but McMillian makes this list on a minimum salary, UDFA contract. His emergence has been just one example of why the Broncos have turned a corner of late.

Best Value Veteran: Tavierre Thomas (Texans, 95.21)

SAFETIES

Jevon Holland (Dolphins, 98.3), Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers, 98.1)

The Dolphins have players all over this list, including their young ballhawk Holland, who has now put together 2 seasons near the top of the league. He’ll be entering a contract year in 2024. Winfield Jr. is in a contract year, and the Buccaneers will have a mighty decision to make this Spring, as the 25-year-old has a legitimate chance to reset the safety market ($19.1M per year, $42M guaranteed).

Best Value Veteran: Geno Stone (Ravens, 89.99)

Every time the KC offense runs through 7th round pick Isaiah Pacheco, a running back contract extension dies. The devaluation is real (as you’ve now heard a million times), and it’s only looking worse for the upcoming NFL offseason. We’ll dive into the notable running backs slated for free agency next March, including thoughts on how things may shake out for the current top-paid players in the group.

RELATED
2024 Running Back Cap Hits
2024 Free Agent Running Backs

Josh Jacobs (Raiders, 25)

2023 Salary: $11,791,000
2024 Valuation: $10.75M (4 years, $43M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Despite heading toward Year 6 of his NFL career, Jacobs will be one of the younger pending free agents. Age doesn’t preclude mileage, but with a much larger presence in the passing game the past 3 seasons, he’s a solid, versatile, under 26 year old option for somebody next March.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
The Yards per Attempt have completely fallen off of a cliff (4.9 in 2022, 3.3 in 2023), and he’s fumbling at the highest rate of his career to go along with it. Jacobs was an astonishing 99.5% True Value in our system last year against a $2.1M salary. This year, his 10.7% True Value sees him producing at a $1.25M level.

Most Likely Outcome
How the Raiders proceed next offseason is very much tied to how the last third of the 2023 season finishes out. They’ve turned a bit of a corner, and if Aidan O’Connell is a QB1 worth sticking with next season, then a lot of these current pieces may be kept in house. The Josh Jacobs we’ve seen on our screens this season won’t approach a $10M per year contract, but if he’s allowed to hit the open market, don’t count out a team like Kansas City tossing a value contract at him to bolster their offense next season.

Tony Pollard (Cowboys, 26)

2023 Salary: $10,091,000 (8th)
2024 Valuation: $6.6M (3 years, $20M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Like his former colleague Ezekiell Elliott, Pollard’s ability to handle a pass rush is Top 3 in the league among running backs (not an accident by the Cowboys, who value blocking about as much as any team in football across the board). Dallas doesn’t currently have a viable RB1 replacement on this roster, though there are viable options to consider (Dowdle, Vaughn).

Why He Might Not Get Paid
The Cowboys gifted Pollard a $10.1M franchise tag as he rehabbed himself back to full health, and subsequently took over the RB1 reins for the first time. As a $965,000 player in 2022, Pollard held a 98.5% value in our system. As a $10.1M player in 2023, Pollard currently holds a 10.1% True Value, or, he’s producing at a $1.01M value currently - which just so happens to be his minimum available salary.

Most Likely Outcome
The Cowboys have contracts to hand out left and right this Winter/Spring, including a couple of blockbusters for Prescott & Lamb. A $13M second franchise tag for Pollard seems inconceivable right now, but so does any sort of multi-year guaranteed extension if we’re being honest. Pollard hits the open market, seeking a cap adjusted version of Miles Sanders’ free agent deal (3 years, $20.5M). Green Bay, Chicago, & Buffalo are listening

Saquon Barkley (Giants, 26)

2023 Salary: $10,091,000
2024 Valuation: $6.6M (3 years, $20M)

Why He Might Get Paid
He’s 1 year removed from 1,700 yards from scrimmage, 57 catches, and 10 touchdowns, and has been stuck in one of the worst offenses in all of football this season. He bet on himself with incentives to garner a raise - and won’t earn a dollar extra from them. The Giants probably need to give Daniel Jones 1 more go around as QB1 (thanks to his contract). Does that mean Barkley gets a 2nd tag ($13M) to give Jones as talented a safety valve as possible?

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Barkley is a middle of the pack running back statistically speaking in almost every major category right now. There are a heck of a lot of outside reasons why - but it’ll be tough to justify a multi-year guarantee, despite the fact that Jonathan Taylor’s contract is now on the books for close reference

Most Likely Outcome
Like Taylor in Indy, Barkley’s best chance for a multi-year contract may be right where he currently stands. The Giants have a QB contract problem, a coaching staff trying to save their jobs, and little to no offensive weapons on the roster going forward. With that said, the days of us offering up $10M+ contracts for Barkley appear to be gone, and a 3 year, $20.5M deal is his maximum calculated value. Instead of guaranteeing two years of that at around $13M, why not just pull it all into 2024, with a second franchise tag.

Derrick Henry (Titans, 29)

2023 Salary: $10.5M
2024 Valuation $9.5M (2 years $19M)

Why He Might Get Paid
He’s still that guy. The Titans’ offense has been a mess this season, but Henry enters Week 12 as the #2 rated RB according to PFF. He won’t replicate a near 2,000 yards from scrimmage 2022, but 1,500 yards and 10 TDs are still within reach. Tennessee is probably OK handing the keys to youngster Tyjae Spears next year, but that shouldn’t keep them from considering a short term extension for Henry.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Henry will be 30 years old by the time this next contract takes shape. As you might imagine, there aren’t many examples of 30+ running backs producing well on anything north of a minimum salary these days, especially as it pertains to the more traditional  between the tackles player. The production still says he should be a high-priced running back, but that’s just not how the business of football operates anymore.

Most Likely Outcome
If the Titans were going to be OK seeing Henry play in another uniform, they would have traded him at this past Halloween deadline. They didn’t, so it’s only right to assume they’ll keep him in the fold for the remainder of his career. Henry gets a 2 year, $12M extension to handcuff/split carries with Spears through 2024, with a veritable option for 2025.

Austin Ekeler (Chargers, 28)

2023 Salary: $6.25M
2024 Valuation: $7.5M (3 years, $22M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Versatility. The Yards per Rush attempt are at an all-time low right now, but Ekeler is still a major weapon in the passing game. He should be on multiple team’s radars this spring if the Chargers let him get to the market. Across a full 2022 season, Ekeler was a 90% value against a $5.5M salary.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Ekeler attempted to hold out prior to the 2023 season for a new contract or more current year money. He settled for a $1.75M incentive package that all but vanished when he missed 4 weeks due to an ankle injury. So, unsuccessful holdout + contract year injury + position that is already massively devalued usually = far less than fair market value for next contract.

Most Likely Outcome
The Chargers don’t have a viable replacement for Ekeler on this roster, but major shakeups may be coming to both sides of the ball (and staffs) this winter. Ekeler signs a 1 year, $7M + incentives contract (the mysterious Dalvin Cook deal).

D'Andre Swift (Eagles, 24)

2023 Salary: $1.7M
2024 Valuation: $5.5M (4 years, $22M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Versatility and a career year with the best team in football. Swift is one of many young weapons in Philly, but he’s still well on pace to post career numbers both in rushing and receiving. The last guy who played this role (Miles Sanders) scored a 4 year, $25.4M contract in free agency. Also, he’ll turn 25 years old in January.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Fumbles & a bit of year to year inconsistency. It’s hard to place too much value on the up and down experiences he went through in Detroit, but teams can point to just about anything to suppress a running back salary these days.

Most Likely Outcome
Philly has made this position a revolving door annually for quite some time now, so a multi-year extension wouldn’t seem to be the obvious choice - but we’re going to make it anyway. Here’s why. If the Eagles let this player walk into free agent (franchise tag probably not ideal with their cap situation), one of the teams seemingly primed to pounce could be NFC rival San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan has long been looking for a proper handcuff for Christian McCaffrey, whose magic is bound to run out here soon anyway. 3 years, $18M to stay in Philly.

NEED TO BE MENTIONED

Devin Singletary (Texans, 26)

2023 Salary: $2.75M + incentives
2024 Valuation: $4.3M (1 year, $4M)

Dameon Pierce's injury. has thrust Singletary into the spotlight. He's thrived, and should be considering a true RB1 role elsewhere if Houston won't pony up a little extra dough to keep him in the fold.

Zack Moss (Colts, 25)

2023 Salary: $1.1M
2024 Valuation: $4.6M (2 years, $9.2M)

Jonathan Taylor's absence was Moss' gain. He's not an 18-week every down back, but he showed more than enough to stick in this league as a complementary RB2 in a good system.

JK Dobbins (Ravens, 24)

2023 Salary: $1.4M
2024 Valuation: $2M (1 year, $2M)

Talented, versatile, the prototypical 2020s running back, when healthy. The injury bug has been devastating time and time again here.

D'Onta Foreman (Bears, 27)

2023 Salary: $2M
2024 Valuation: $3M (1 year, $3M)

Foreman hasn't found a complementary role that he hasn't been able to be successful in. That will continue for 2024.

Gus Edwards (Ravens, 26)

2023 Salary: $3.3M
2024 Valuation: $3.6M (1 year, $3.6M)

An absolute touchdown machine, especially in the red zone. Baltimore would be foolish to move on here.

A.J. Dillon (Packers, 25)

2023 Salary: $1.3M
2024 Valuation: $3.6M (1 year, $3.6M)

Never really got going in Green Bay and should have a chance to restart his career elsewhere this March.

Antonio Gibson (Commanders, 25)

2023 Salary: $2.7M
2024 Valuation: $3.6M (1 year, $3.6M)

Fumbles kept his touches (and valuation) at bay, but there's a lot of potential value if he signs with a good team at near minimum.

Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots, 28)

2023 Salary: $3M
2024 Valuation: $2.8M (1 year, $2.8M)

Somehow became the focal point of the Patriots' offense in 2023, and should be able to keep his career alive based on blocking prowess alone.

Dalvin Cook (Jets, 28)

2023 Salary: $7M (+incentives)
2024 Valuation: $4.3M (1 year, $4.3M)

It was the offseason of Dalvin, and the inseason of not Dalvin. Cook needs to shave a few million off of the asking price and find an offensive line this spring.

POTENTIAL FREE AGENT ADDITIONS

Alvin Kamara (Saints, 28)

2 years, $36.8M remaining
2024 Valuation: $4.6M (2 years, $9.25M)

Kamara is still a nice piece to the Saints' puzzle, and Derek Carr is fully guaranteed through 2024, but as per usual, New Orleans will need to find cap space in the coming months. A rip it up and start over could very much be in the cards here.

Aaron Jones (Packers, 28)

1 year, $12M remaining
2024 Valuation: $5.2M (1 year, $5.2M)

Jones' midseason injury probably means the last of him in a Packers' uniform. He'll likely need to settle for a show-me contract with a bunch of attainable incentives, but he can certainly still help a good team in the right situation.

We'll begin to look ahead at NFL players eyeing new contracts with a dive into QBs Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, & Joshua Dobbs.

Jared Goff (Lions, 29)

The former #1 overall pick back in 2016 will be entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn a non-guaranteed $26.6M (including a $5M roster bonus due March 14th). Goff and this Lions system appear to be a match made in heaven, so it seems a lock that the two sides will hammer out a multi-year guarantee extension this spring. But to what tune?

After a lackluster 2021 campaign in Detroit (91.5 rating), Goff has now put together back to back seasons that prove he’s worth the price of admission. At the time of this piece, PFF has him rated #3 among all QBs, while his 99.1 QBR currently ranks 9th. Contractually speaking, Goff’s numbers (and career arch) line up best with Kirk Cousins, who will also be in the market for a new contract in the coming months. What does this mean financially? If the top of the QB market is seeking $50M+, Cousins and Goff are most likely mathematically falling into the $40M per year range.

Jared Goff’s current contract was signed at the start of the 2019 season. His $33.5M average annual salary represented 17.8% of the league salary cap at the time. If Detroit were to sign him to a contract extension right now (not a horrible idea by the way), 17.8% of the current cap calculates to almost exactly $40M per year. Should the cap rise to $245M next March, his assumed price could rise to almost $44M per year. Let’s not overthink this and split the difference. 

PREDICTION:
The Lions extend Goff at 5 new years, $210,000,000 new money, $168M practically guaranteed

Kirk Cousins (Vikings, 35)

Torn achilles & ridiculous Josh Dobbs story aside, Cousins returning to the Vikings on a last minute extension should still be the betting odds favorite by a lot. He’s a top tier regular season QB that hasn’t found the code to get it done in the postseason just yet. There are dozens of great QBs in NFL history that have the same resume attached to them. The Vikings offensive line, and a weapon due of Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison for the next 3-4 seasons is (arguably) as good a situation as he’ll be able to find around the league this March. So how does Minnesota keep him around?

Remember, a franchise tag won’t be plausible this time, so Minnesota will need to work quickly this January/February to lock something in, or risk having to bid against teams such as Atlanta, Tampa, Green Bay, etc.. who may have immediate interest. Statistically, Cousins’ last 5 seasons have been his best. He appears to have settled into exactly the type of player he needs to be, and for the most part, the Vikings have successfully built an offense to suit him.

Cousins joined Minnesota back in 2018 on a 3 year, $84M fully guaranteed free agent contract. He then signed a 2 year, $66M fully guaranteed extension, and a 1 year, $35M fully guaranteed extension through 2023. If we pull out these average salaries and compare them to the respective league salary cap at the time, we’re talking about 15-16% allocation here. If we assume a $245M league salary cap for 2024, 16% would afford us a $39.2M average salary for Cousins, which also just happens to be his exact valuation in our system, currently speaking.

Is it enough to bring him back? Honestly, before the Achilles injury, that answer would have been a hard and fast no. But a 35-year–old suffering an injury of this magnitude has to come with some reservation. We’ll bump the price slightly to round it off nicely.

PREDICTION:
The Vikings retain Cousins at 3 new years, $120,000,000 new money, $80M fully guaranteed

Josh Dobbs (Vikings, 28)

To say that Dobbs’ 2023 has been wild is an understatement. He’ll never be one of the more physically gifted QBs in the league, but the mental aptitude to be able to accomplish what he’s already done in 10 weeks is second to none right now. Have we seen enough to ensure that Dobbs will be a starting QB in Week 1 of the 2024 season? No.

If anything, Dobbs' ability to manage a passing game, scramble when needed, and pick up an offense on the fly is reminiscent of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who brought his own kind of “relief pitcher” magic to the game for many years. The BIlls attempted to test fate on Fitzpatrick with a 6 year, $59M in-season extension back in 2011, but it backfired on them almost immediately. 

So what does the future hold for a player like Dobbs financially speaking? It’s not reckless to say that a contending team may look at what he’s done this Fall as a bonafide insurance policy for their current star QB, and make him the highest paid backup in all of football. If we’re not counting Ryan Tannehill (who was just recently handed the backup role), that award currently goes to Mitchell Trubisky in Pittsburgh, & Jacoby Brissett in Washington, each of whom have secured $8M this season (49 snaps, 0 snaps respectively). That $8M against a $224.8M league salary cap represents 3.5%. If we assume $245M in 2024, a top-tier backup QB payout (base pay) should come in at around $8.5M, with plenty of incentives built in based on playing time, wins, playoffs, etc…to nearly double that figure when it’s all said and done.

PREDICTION:
The Vikings retain Dobbs at 2 new years, $18,000,000 new money, $9M fully guaranteed.