Keith SmithJanuary 05, 2024

January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

There are 34 players in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

 

Atlanta Hawks

No guarantee decisions

Boston Celtics

Dalano Banton - $2,019,706

Banton’s contract is already half-guaranteed at just over $1 million. Boston is also already sitting on an open roster spot. Banton isn’t going anywhere.

Luke Kornet - $2,413,304

Kornet is a regular rotation player, and a key backup at the center spot when Al Horford or Kristaps Porzingis need a night off. His deal will become fully guaranteed.

Svi Mykhailiuk - $2,019,706

Mykhailiuk has had an inconsistent role with the Celtics, but he’s been fairly productive when called up. He’s in the same boat as Banton with just over $1 million already guaranteed. He’ll stick around.

Lamar Stevens - $2,019,706

Stevens is in a similar spot as Banton and Mykhailiuk as veteran bench depth, minus the $1 million guarantee. His deal doesn’t have a fixed guarantee, but he’s not going anywhere either.

Brooklyn Nets

Harry Giles III - $2,019,706

Giles is one of the best feel-good stories in the NBA, as he’s made it back from several injury-plagued years. He hasn’t played a lot, but unless the Nets need a roster spot, Giles will see his deal become guaranteed.

Trendon Watford - $2,019,706

Watford’s deal is already guaranteed for $700,000. Until recently, he was also a regular rotation player. Given the Nets seem likely to do some frontcourt shuffling at the trade deadline, expect Watford to have his deal guaranteed, and to find his way back into the rotation.

Charlotte Hornets

Frank Ntilikina - $2,019,706

Ntilikina was given a $200,000 initial guarantee with the hope that he’d replace Dennis Smith Jr. in the Hornets backcourt. Unfortunately, a fractured leg has caused him to miss the entire season to date. This seems like a 50-50 decision for Charlotte, who could use some backcourt depth, but is going nowhere this season standings-wise. A lot may depend on what Ntilikina’s injury timeline looks like.

Ish Smith - $2,019,706

Smith has been an integral rotation player for Charlotte this season, in part due to the guy above being out and LaMelo Ball missing time. Smith will stick around. The real question? Will Smith get traded to a team he hasn’t played for yet, which would be a 14th team on his career ledger.

J.T Thor - $1,836,096

Thor is a regular rotation for Charlotte. He’s also still youngish at 23 years old. He’s not going anywhere.

Chicago Bulls

Terry Taylor - $2,019,706

Taylor has $700,000 of his deal already guaranteed, and the Bulls already have an open roster spot. He’s also playing a lot with Nikola Vucevic sidelined, albeit as the smallest small-ball five in the league at just 6-foot-5. Unless Chicago needs to clear some additional room under the tax, Taylor will stick around.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Sam Merrill - $1,997,238

Given Cleveland is just under the tax line (before the Ricky Rubio buyout is finalized), Merrill looked like he could be waived. But he’s playing real rotation minutes for the banged-up Cavaliers and he’s played well. He’ll stick.

Tristan Thompson - $2,019,706

Thompson has surprisingly become a key frontcourt backup for the Cavs. He’s also a respected locker room voice. Thompson will see his deal guaranteed.

Dallas Mavericks

Markieff Morris - $2,019,706

Morris has played more than was expected, due to injuries in the Mavs frontcourt. He’s someone Jason Kidd likes to use when the team needs to get a little nasty too. He’ll stick around and see his deal become fully guaranteed.

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

Kevin Knox - $2,019,706

There was a point where it looked like Knox was a filler player, on almost a pseudo-10-day type of deal. Then he started playing rotation minutes, including a handful of starts. Knox will probably stick and could see his role further increased if Detroit moves some vets at the trade deadline.

Golden State Warriors

Gui Santos - $1,119,563

Santos was signed because Golden State had to fill their 14th roster spot. As a former Warriors draftee, they also get some luxury tax savings, because he hits the books at his actual salary vs the veteran minimum amount. That’s a long way to say Santos is safe.

Houston Rockets

Aaron Holiday - $2,019,706

Holiday has been the Rockets backup point guard this season. He’s also turned in a really underrated season for a better-than-expected team. He’s not going anywhere.

Boban Marjanovic - $2,019,706

Marjanovic is one of the best teammates and locker room presences in the NBA. Enough said. He’s safe.

Indiana Pacers

James Johnson - $1,416,116

Unless Indiana thinks they might need a roster spot, Johnson will stick around. They value his toughness and veteran presence on a somewhat young roster.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

No guarantee decisions

Memphis Grizzlies

Bismack Biyombo - $5,000,000

If Memphis was going to waive Biyombo, they would have done it when they had to make a cut to bring Ja Morant off the suspended list. Biyombo isn’t going anywhere, unless it’s as part of a trade package, which also feels unlikely.

Miami Heat

Orlando Robinson - $1,801,769

Robinson has another non-guaranteed season after this one, and he’s been an interesting developmental project. No team gets more out of those guys than Miami does. Robinson will stick around.

Dru Smith - $1,801,769

Smith would have been in the same boat as Robinson, but he’s out for the season after suffering a freak injury when he fell off the side of the elevated court in Cleveland. Miami could move on from Smith to create a second open roster spot, and to save a bit under the tax line. But don’t rule out Smith being re-signed over the summer, so the Heat can continue to work with him. The other option is he stays and continues to rehab with Miami ahead of next season’s non-guaranteed contract kicking in.

Milwaukee Bucks

No guarantee decisions

Minnesota Timberwolves

No guarantee decisions

New Orleans Pelicans

Jose Alvarado - $1,836,096

Last season we wrote that Alvarado was “arguably the biggest no-brainer on the list”. Nothing has changed. He’s not going anywhere. But… the Pelicans are going to get out of the tax somehow. Keep an eye on the team moving Kira Lewis Jr. by the trade deadline, unless a bigger trade develops.

New York Knicks

Ryan Arcidiacono - $2,019,706

We’re right back in the same place as a year ago: Arcidiacono is still a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, so he’ll stick around. But will the Knicks trade him again? That $2 million is a nice little bit of salary-matching if New York makes another big move.

Taj Gibson - $1,416,116

Gibson, another Thibodeau favorite, was brought in after Mitchell Robinson went down. He’ll stick around for center depth and veteran presence purposes.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Isaiah Joe - $1,997,238

Joe is on a steal of a contract as a regular rotation player. He’s also the Thunder’s best pure shooter. He’s not going anywhere.

Aaron Wiggins - $1,836,096

Wiggins is one of the most-used bench wings the Thunder have. He’s carved out a real role. He’ll see his deal become fully guaranteed.

Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000

We’re here again. Isaac has played more this season, which is encouraging. But he’s still missed time and he’s currently injured yet again. However, the Magic aren’t going to waive him, only to eat $7.6 million. If nothing else, Isaac is a great piece of salary-matching in a trade at $17.4 million. If he’s still on the roster after the season, and hasn’t gotten and stayed healthy, then Orlando has a real decision to make on keeping him next season.

Philadelphia 76ers

No guarantee decisions

Phoenix Suns

Jordan Goodwin - $1,927,896

Goodwin’s deal is already half-guaranteed at nearly $1 million. He’s fallen out of the rotation recently, but he remains the lone true point guard on the Suns roster. Goodwin isn’t going anywhere.

Portland Trail Blazers

Moses Brown - $2,019,706

Brown is in a somewhat interesting spot. He’s already had $500,000 of his deal guaranteed. He’s also started several games while DeAndre Ayton has been out. But Ayton will eventually come back, and the Trail Blazers have interesting options in two-way centers Duop Reath and Ibou Badji. Call Brown a 50-50 decision.

Ishmail Wainright - $1,927,896

Wainright has missed a lot of time this season. Conceivably, he can add some defense on the wing. Given Portland doesn't have a lot of defenders, Wainright will probably stick around and the Blazers will see what they have him in the rest of the season.

Skylar Mays - $1,799,163

Mays was converted from his two-way deal when Portland had a bunch of ballhandlers down with injuries. The team is mostly healthy at that spot now, and they are overstocked when healthy. A lot of guaranteeing Mays comes down to what the Blazers think will happen with trades. If they clear out some of the logjam, Mays would be a valuable guy to keep. If that’s not happening, then Mays could be waived to open up a roster spot for an upside play at another position. Call him a 50-50 decision too.

Sacramento Kings

Juan Toscano-Anderson - $1,416,116

The Kings added Toscano-Anderson to fill an open roster spot when they had some players out on the wing. Since then, Sacramento has gotten healthy, but Toscano-Anderson has still occasionally played to provide energy and defense on the perimeter. He’ll probably stick around, unless the Kings think they might need that roster spot. One factor? Keon Ellis has been a rotation guy for a lot of the season, but he’s on a two-way deal. Eventually, he’ll run out of games and need to be converted. That could factor into Toscano-Anderson’s standing on the team.

San Antonio Spurs

No guarantee decisions

Toronto Raptors

No guarantee decisions

Utah Jazz

Luka Samanic - $2,066,585

Utah thinks enough of Samanic as a developmental guy that they already guaranteed him $600,000. There’s no real reason to cut him now. He’ll stick around and maybe more minutes will open, if the Jazz trade a frontcourt player or two.

Omer Yurtseven - $2,800,000

Yurtseven has $1.4 million already guaranteed in his deal. He’s in the same boat as Samanic as far as playing time goes, and Yurtseven has a second non-guaranteed season on the books for next season too. He won’t be going anywhere.

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

 

Keith SmithJanuary 02, 2024

During the week before Christmas, the NBA world descended upon Orlando. This time it was a more-welcomed trip, as opposed to arriving in the summer of 2020 to complete the season in the Walt Disney World bubble.

The NBA showed up in Orlando this time for the 2023 G League Showcase. The Westchester Knicks took home the Showcase Cup, but the main reason for the event was for NBA front office to mingle together. It’s considered the cousin to Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings, as a space where NBA trade talks take off in full. It’s not clear if being together at the Showcase sparked the New Year’s weekend trade between the New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors, but it’s highly likely trade talks did take place in Orlando.

The other purpose of the event is for G League players to show out for NBA front office personnel. Many rostered players have stood out during the first part of the G League season. This includes players on standard contracts and players signed to two-way deals. But it’s the other guys, the free agents, who need the Showcase to earn an NBA callup.

These callups could occur via a 10-day contract. Teams are allowed to sign players to 10-day deals starting on January 5. The other option is further shuffling of two-way contracts.

As it stands, as of this writing, nine teams have an open standard roster spot:

In addition, the New York Knicks have an open Two-way spot. Other roster spots will open up as teams make trades (the trade deadline is February 8) or if teams waive players (the last day to waive players before contracts guarantee is January 7).

The following players have stood out, both in the early part of the G League season and at the Showcase event in Orlando. A handful were also players mentioned regularly by NBA scouts and front office executives as players who might garner a callup from the G League.

(Note: This list is presented in no particular order. It is not a ranking of any kind!)

All stats as of January 1, 2024 and provided by RealGM’s G League Database

Guards

Mac McClung – Osceola Magic, PG, 6’2’’, 25 years old

McClung has dominated as a scorer on the G League level. His quickness stands out, as minor league defenders have trouble staying in front of McClung. His efficiency is down a bit from deep, but McClung is taking 8.8 three-pointers per game and still hitting 37% of them. He’s also averaging 6.1 assists per game. If he were a bit bigger, McClung would be on an NBA roster already. As it stands, he should be very high on the list of guys teams look at who need a ballhandler/playmaker at the lead guard spot.

Jason Preston – Memphis Hustle, PG, 6’3’’, 24 years old

Preston is probably too good for the minors, sort of the equivalent to an MLB 4 A player. He may be the best pure playmaker in the league. He’s averaging 8.9 assists per game and consistently generates good looks for his teammates. The thing that holds Preston back is that he’s hitting just 27% from behind the arc. He’s still an interesting guy if a team needs an additional guard in the second half of the season.

Scotty Pippen Jr. – South Bay Lakers, PG, 6’1’’, 23 years old

Pippen has been one of the best scorers in the G League this season. He’s averaging 21 points per game on 51/39/84 shooting splits. He’s also snagging a couple of steals per game, and handing out six assists a night. Pippen can get a little wild with the ball, as his 3.6 turnovers per game will attest to. And his size works against him some. But Pippen is worth a look for a team that needs some juice in the backcourt.

Jalen Crutcher – Birmingham Squadron, PG, 6’1’’, 24 years old

Crutcher is a third-year G League player. His experience shows, as he’s done a nice job as a scorer and playmaker. Crutcher is averaging 19.7 points, 5.1 assists and 1.1 steals. What’s really exciting is that Crutcher has shot 42.7% on 8.7 three-point attempts per game. That’s a third consecutive year over 40% from deep on increasing volume each season. If he was only a bit bigger, Crutcher would be on an NBA roster already.

Javonte Smart – Delaware Blue Coats, PG/SG, 6’4’’, 24 years old

Smart has been stuffing the stat sheet in the G League. He was recently waived from his two-way contract with the Philadelphia 76ers, but that seemed more about the Sixers getting Kenneth Lofton Jr. than anything to do with Smart’s play. The third-year player has averaged 21.1 points, 5.1 assists and 3.6 rebounds. Smart has also put up 48/43/95 shooting splits, on an impressive 8.1 three-point attempts per game. That’s NBA-level stuff.

Brandon Goodwin – Westchester Knicks, PG, 6’0’’, 28 years old

Goodwin has four years of NBA experience, so he’s leading off the veteran section here. As Westchester rolled to the Showcase Cup championship, Goodwin led the way. He’s averaged 19.1 points and 8.6 assists this season. Even more impressive? Goodwin is grabbing 5.3 rebounds per game, despite being just 6-feet tall. But it’s that lack of size on the defensive end, plus a lack of a consistent shot, that has Goodwin on the fringes of the NBA. He’s also out of two-way eligibility. But Goodwin can help a team immediately on a 10-day. Perhaps more than most on this list.

Shaquille Harrison – South Bay Lakers, PG/SG, 6’4’’, 30 years old

Harrison has already logged some NBA time on a hardship callup with the Memphis Grizzlies this season. Teams keep calling Harrison, because he’s an NBA-level guy. He knows his role is to defend and keep the ball moving. If Harrison shot it a little better, he’d be signed to a standard contract. As it is, he’s probably the most “plug-and-play” option on this list for a callup.

Elfrid Payton – Indiana Mad Ants, PG, 6’3’’, 29 years old

Payton is one of the more recognizable names on this list, as a former lottery pick. The same issue remains for Payton as always: He’s not a consistent shooter. But he’s a proven NBA-level playmaker and he can hold up defensively against most point guards. Payton has averaged 10.6 points, 8.6 assists and 1.8 steals in the G League this season. If a team needs an experienced ballhandler, Payton could handle some NBA action immediately.

Wings

Ethan Thompson – Mexico City Capitanes, SG/SF, 6’5’’, 24 years old

Thompson has been one of the G League’s best scorers this season. He’s averaging 23.1 points on 45% shooting. Thompson has also hit 39% of his 7.2 three-point attempts per game. It looks like Thompson has been a more active and competitive defender than during his first couple of professional seasons too. And he’s getting on the glass more, with 5.6 rebounds per game. Thompson could be a candidate for a two-way deal, for a team looking for some organizational wing depth.

Quenton Jackson – Windy City Bulls, SG/SF, 6’5’’, 25 years old

Jackson saw some limited NBA run with the Washington Wizards last season. He’s parlayed that into a strong start in the G League this season. Jackson has averaged 15.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He’s a very competitive defender. Unfortunately, Jackson is hitting only 24% from behind the arc. If he were a more consistent shooter, Jackson would already be on an NBA roster.

Matthew Hurt – Memphis Hustle, SF/PF, 6’9’’, 23 years old

Hurt showed signs in his G League run a year ago, but has really broken out this season. He’s got good size for a wing, and he’s strong enough to guard up at the four. Hurt has been an improved finisher this season, as he’s averaging 13.2 points on 54% shooting. He’s also hit 39% of his 4.9 three-point attempts per game. The best thing? Hurt is one of the better help defenders in the G League, as he’s averaged 2.3 blocks per game.

Adonis Arms – Memphis Hustle, SF/SG, 6’6’’, 25 years old

As his name might suggest, Arms is a strong defender. He’s been one of the best defensive wings in the G League this season. He’s also flashed an improved shot, as he’s at 40% from behind the arc on 3.9 attempts per game. In addition, Arms is a stronger rebounder for a wing at 5.3 boards per game. He’s another candidate for a potential two-way contract for a team that needs a defensive-minded wing.

Maozinha Periera – Mexico City Capitanes, SF, 6’8’’, 23 years old

Periera is an under-the-radar guy, but he flashes when you catch Mexico City play. He’s a bouncy athlete who can really finish around the basket. He’s also an active rebounder at 10.3 boards per game. Most of his defense seems to be on instinct, but those instincts are good ones. Pereira averages 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. He’s someone NBA teams should be looking to snag as a two-way project.

Darius Bazley – Delaware Blue Coats, SF/PF, 6’9’’, 23 years old

Bazley hasn’t been in the G League very long, but he’s already made a major impact. He’s averaging 21.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 steals and 3.0 blocks per game for Delaware. It’s clear that Bazley’s athleticism is NBA-level. He’s too quick and too strong for most G League players to defend. The challenge is that Bazley is still a shaky shooter, as witnessed by 27.6% on 6.4 three-pointers per game. If that improves, Bazley could be a late-bloomer (third draft?) callup for an NBA team.

Jaylen Nowell – Stockton Kings, SG, 6’4’’, 24 years old

Nowell is an NBA veteran. He’s also already played in the NBA this season, as he joined the Memphis Grizzlies on a hardship callup. Because of that, Nowell has played only five games in the G League. Those games have been enough to show he should be in the NBA. Nowell has scored with relative ease in the minors. The only thing holding him back remains an inconsistent jumper. Nowell fell from 39% from deep two seasons ago to 29% last season. And he hasn’t hit threes in the G League or NBA this year. If that corrects, Nowell will be back on an NBA roster for good.

Bigs

Trey Jemison – Birmingham Squadron, PF, 6’10’’, 24 years old

Jemison has the look of an NBA player. He’s big, quick, athletic and fairly smooth. He’s also a smart player who plays to his strengths and stays close to the basket. The scoring stats won’t jump out at you, but the G League is a guard’s league. Jemison is a solid enough finisher. Where he really shines is on defense. Jemison has grabbed 11.2 rebounds and blocked 1.8 shots per game. If a team needs an emergency big, Jemison should get a call. He’d be a sneaky addition a two-way project too.

Ruan Miranda – Mexico City Capitanes, PF/C, 6’9’’, 22 years old

Miranda is a capital “P” project, but he might be worth it. He’s extremely raw, but Miranda has the athletic tools. In just 15.5 minutes per game, he’s grabbing 4.8 rebounds and has been a terror on the offensive glass. The jumper is non-existent, but Miranda’s free throw form is alright. A big challenge will be teaching him how to use his athleticism without fouling. If a team has room for a two-way project, Miranda might be worth it.

Mouhamadou Gueye – Raptors 905, PF, 6’9’’, 25 years old

Gueye is a little older than some others on this list and his game is pretty old-school too. But he’s a player. This season, Gueye has flashed improved finishing around the basket. He’s up to 61% from the floor, which has led to 15.4 points per game. He’s also grabbing 7.4 rebounds. But what’s really stood out is Gueye is a natural shot blocker. The big man is at an impressive 2.9 rejections per game. He’s both good in straight-up defense and coming over from the weakside. Gueye might be ready to step in and help an NBA team with his energy and shot-blocking ability right away.

Chris Silva – College Park Skyhawks, PF, 6’8’’, 27 years old

Silva has been around the fringes of the NBA for years now. He’s undersized and a bit ground-bound to play on the interior in the NBA, and Silva can’t really step out and shoot it. But he’s incredibly strong and a solid screener, in a league where that’s a lost art. Silva is averaging 17.4 points on 61% shooting. He’s also grabbing 9.2 rebounds per game and handing out three assists. If an NBA team needs someone to come in and play a few frontcourt minutes per night on a 10-day deal, Silva is more than ready.

Jordan Bell – Indiana Mad Ants, PF, 6’7’’, 29 years old

The prospect shine is long-since gone from Bell, but he’s a better player now than during his NBA time. Bell has vacillated between starting and coming off the bench for the Mad Ants. In either role, he’s brought great energy to the floor. Bell is averaging only 11.1 points, but he’s mostly focused on defending, screening and moving the ball. Bell has pulled down 7.9 rebounds, blocked 2.6 shots and dished out 3.6 assists per game. He’s not two-way eligible, but Bell could help a team on a 10-day callup.

Non-G League Veterans to Watch

DeMarcus Cousins – Taiwan Beer Leopards, C, 6’11’’, 33 years old

Cousins signed on to play in Taiwan for a series of games. Following his initial contract, the team and Cousins will decide if he’ll sign a longer deal or not. If all goes well, Cousins could find his way back to the NBA. Last summer, in 19 games in Puerto Rico, Cousins averaged 19 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.4 blocks in 24.9 minutes per game. He still wants to play and could potentially help an NBA team as a backup center. The way back will come through proving he belongs in the league via a 10-day contract or two.

Austin Rivers – Free Agent, SG, 6’4’’, 31 years old

Rivers was good enough to appear in 52 games last season for the Minnesota Timberwolves. He averaged 4.9 points and hit 35% of his three-pointers for the Wolves, but Rivers rarely played after the trade deadline. He recently worked out for teams in Orlando and many came away feeling he looked good physically. Keep an eye on Rivers getting a 10-day deal or two to prove he deserves another NBA contract.

John Wall – Free Agent, PG, 6’3’’, 33 years old

Wall was traded from the LA Clippers at least season’s trade deadline, and subsequently waived. About a month prior to that, Wall had lost his rotation spot for the Clippers. He also worked out for NBA teams in Orlando. Some were surprised at how quick Wall looked, with a handful remarking he looked physically good enough to play in the NBA. Like Cousins and Rivers, Wall’s path to the league is via taking a 10-day deal or two and proving he can still contribute.

 

Keith SmithDecember 30, 2023

On a sleepy pre-New Year’s Eve Saturday afternoon, the Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks swung a massive NBA trade. This trade agreement makes six consecutive seasons the NBA has seen a trade happen within weeks of trade season unofficially opening on December 15.

Here are the particulars:

  • New York Knicks acquire: OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, Malachi Flynn
  • Toronto Raptors acquire: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, 2024 Detroit Pistons second-round pick

This is a somewhat rare trade between division rivals. This is especially true when both teams are currently pursuing postseason spots this season. And, if that wasn’t enough, both teams are embroiled in a lawsuit over a front office employee taking proprietary information with him when the left New York for Toronto this past summer.

However, none of that kept the two from coming together on what looks like a win-win trade. Let’s dive in!

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $26.9 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $28 million in 2023-24

The New York Knicks have not been a Tom Thibodeau style of defensive team over the last three seasons. After finishing third in the NBA in defensive rating in 2020-21, the Knicks have been 11th and 19th the last two seasons and currently sit a pedestrian 16th this season.

In addition, the Knicks have been an average or below-average three-point shooting team over the last few years.

Enter OG Anunoby.

Anunoby has been one of the NBA’s premier 3&D wings throughout his seven-year career. He’s consistently hit in the high-30% range on a healthy volume of attempts from deep. Defensively, he uses his 6-foot-7 frame to guard anyone 2-4. Anunoby is also quick enough to switch onto point guards, while being strong enough to switch onto centers.

The challenge is that Anunoby’s game has never leveled-up the way many hoped it would. When he signed his rookie extension, the hope was Anunoby would grow into more of an on-ball threat. That’s never really materialized.

Despite being a solid ball-mover, Anunoby isn’t a shot-creator. He’s dependent on others to get him good looks. That’s limited his upside as an offensive player.

On defense, Anunoby is a very good defensive player. However, as a wing, he’s not someone you can build your entire defense around. So, while he may continue to earn accolades for his individual defense, he’s not someone who can lift an average team defense from poor to good or good to great all by himself

In New York, Anunoby shouldn’t have to worry about doing any of those things on either end of the floor.

On offense, the Knicks have enough creators that Anunoby’s ability to consistently hit open threes will be welcomed. He’s a major upgrade over RJ Barrett in the phase of the game. Barrett is more likely to put the ball on the floor and to create something, but that’s less of a need when Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are around.

On defense, Anunoby being a bit bigger than Barrett is helpful. He’ll be able to slide up a position to play the four when Randle needs to sit, which is something Barrett can’t do. Anunoby’s ability to lock down one perimeter player, will also help the Knicks in hiding Brunson, while letting everyone else stay home more.

Expect New York’s starting lineup to look like this now:

  • Isaiah Hartenstein
  • Julius Randle
  • OG Anunoby
  • Donte DiVincenzo
  • Jalen Brunson

Behind that group, New York will have Josh Hart, Quentin Grimes, Precious Achiuwa and Taj Gibson.

It’s the second-unit where the Knicks downgraded. Malachi Flynn has played better this year, but he’s not a replacement for Immanuel Quickley. That’s a big loss for New York. One silver lining: This does clean up the guard/wing rotation quite a bit. The Knicks had been trying to fit six players into what were really two spots. Someone was always getting shorted minutes, and that’s no longer an issue.

Achiuwa will help with frontcourt depth. Thibodeau is likely use him exclusively as a backup center, as opposed to having him play the four, which Toronto dabbled in. Mitchell Robinson is out for the season, which has pressed veteran Gibson into service behind Hartenstein. Putting it kindly, Gibson’s best days are behind him. Achiuwa will bring energy and the ability to run the floor behind Hartenstein.

Looking beyond this year, this trade has the initial feel of cleaning up New York’s cap sheet. However, that’s taking way too simplistic of an approach.

Yes, the Knicks shed over $100 million in salary for Barrett. And New York doesn’t have to pay Quickley in restricted free agency this summer, where the rumor was he wanted at least $100 million of his own. But the Knicks will need to pay Anunoby, and that’s going to eat into their cap flexibility a good deal.

There are basically three options for Anunoby’s next contract. He could sign an extension right now, but he’s limited to coming in under the extend-and-trade parameters. That would mean declining his player option for next season and signing a two-year extension worth about $40.1 million. Under the extend-and-trade rules, Anunoby would be limited to a 5% raise off his current $18.6 million deal. That would be about $19.6 million for next season, followed by a second year in 2025-26 at $20.5 million.

That’s a little light for what Anunoby could expect to get in free agency or via a standard veteran extension.

If this trade is completed on December 30 (and it’s expected it will be), Anunoby will be eligible to sign a standard veteran extension on June 30, when his six-month extension restriction would lift. That extension would be worth as much as $116.9 million over four years. That would see Anunoby declining his player option for next year, but extending for the max of four years, with a 40% raise from his current salary and then 8% raises after that.

That’s an average annual value (AAV) of about $29.2 million. That AAV is far more in range of what Anunoby could be looking at on his next deal, compared to the $20 million AAV he could extend for right now.

But, there’s a complicating factor here. Anunoby could choose to not extend and to play things out to unrestricted free agency this summer. He’d be eligible for a projected first-year max of $42.6 million as a free agent. That’s either from the Knicks or another team. Because New York has his full Bird rights, should Anunoby opt out this summer, they can give him up to that $42.6 million, and could add a fifth year onto the deal.

Now, Anunoby probably isn’t a max player. But he’s close to one. And because his skillset as one of the best 3&D players in the league can fit anywhere, he’ll be a prime free agent target for any cap space team. There are teams that have enough cap space to make Anunoby a max or near-max offer. That could force the Knicks to pay a bit more than Anunoby could fetch via an extension on June 30.

Putting it all together, there is no way Anunoby extends now. He’d be leaving too much money on the table. By the time June 30 rolls around, he’ll know if he should extend with the Knicks for just shy of $30 million AAV, or if he’s got bigger offers waiting for him in free agency. Or if he can simply get more, or a fifth year, from New York as a free agent.

As for Achiuwa and Flynn, they are both eligible for restricted free agency this summer. The Knicks will likely take a wait-and-see approach with both players. Achiuwa could be someone New York will invest in as a restricted free agent. Hartenstein will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, and Mitchell Robinson will be returning from a season-ending injury. If Achiuwa plays well the rest of this season, it’s easy to envision a world where he sticks in New York.

Flynn will probably be allowed to leave, as the Knicks already have other guards. And they like Miles McBride, who they’ve developed over the last few years and is in a similar spot to Flynn as a restricted free agent point guard.

Jumping back to this year: don’t expect New York to be done tinkering with their roster. This trade saved them some money on this year’s books. The Knicks are about $5 million below the luxury tax line and about $10 million under the tax apron, at which they are hard capped. That should be enough wiggle room to make additional moves, should the opportunity arise.

New York still has Evan Fournier’s pseudo-expiring $18.8 million contract (there is a $19 million team option for Fournier for 2024-25) to dangle in trade talks. If New York decides they need to upgrade another spot (center perhaps?), they’ve got that contract and enough room under the tax and apron to make it happen.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $28 million in 2023-24

Outgoing salary: $26.9 million in 2023-24

This trade signals the start of a reset for the Raptors. No more clunky three-forward lineups. No more searching for a long-term answer at point guard. This trade made Toronto more balanced, and they might not be done making moves.

RJ Barrett is a more versatile offensive player than OG Anunoby. Barrett is a better off-the-dribble creator than Anunoby is, and he’s a better playmaker than his assist numbers show. If he’s given a chance to do a little more on-ball creating in Toronto, Barrett could shine.

Barrett isn’t nearly the shooter Anunoby is, and that’s tough for a Raptors team that all too often struggles to make jumpers. Outside of hitting 40% in his sophomore season, Barrett has been a below-average three-point shooter. This season he’s ticked up slightly, but the idea of him becoming a good shooter is a thing of the past.

Defensively, Barrett is a notch or two below Anunoby too. He’s smaller, so he’s not as fully switchable as Anunoby. He’s much more of a pure wing defender. But Barrett is a good defender and should fit in well alongside Toronto’s other wings and forwards.

Where the Raptors did well on the court in this trade was snagging Immanuel Quickley. After breaking out last season and nearly winning Sixth Man of the Year, Quickley has been even better this season. And that’s despite losing playing time and some shots in a crowded Knicks backcourt.

Essentially, Quickley is a player whose profile screams a need for a bigger role. He’ll get it in Toronto. Dennis Schroder has played well for the Raptors, but he’s best as a backup at this point in his career. (Coincidentally, Toronto had recently moved Schroder to the bench in the last week.)

Simply put: Quickley can be the Raptors long-term answer at the point guard position.

Quickley is a score-first player, but there are some playmaking chops there that didn’t get a chance to shine in New York. As a scorer, Quickley excels in using screens to create his own looks. He’s a good pullup shooter and he’s got one of the best floaters in the game.

Just as importantly, Quickley is a good off-ball player too. In New York, where the ball is controlled by Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle most of the time, Quickley has learned how to spot-up for jumpers. Or he attacks hard closeouts to get into the paint himself for his floater, or to find a teammate.

That will be important in Toronto too, as Scottie Barnes has become the Raptors main offensive engine. Pascal Siakam will continue to drive the offense a lot too, for however long he’s still there (more on that in a bit). And it’s fair to expect Toronto to let Barrett run the show for some possessions too.

But Quickley is going to get a chance to show what he can do. He’s a major upgrade over Schroder. And his presence should allow Schroder to go back to the bench role where he excels.

On defense, Quickley is competitive against opposing ballhandlers. No pun intended, but he uses his quickness to stay in front of them, and to challenge for steals. Like most smaller guards, Quickley can get overwhelmed inside against bigger players. Toronto should have enough size on the floor to counter that, however.

One bonus with Quickley: He’s a very good rebounder for his size. He’s terrific at snagging a defensive board and triggering transition offense by himself. Look for that to be something that Toronto emphasizes.

Long-term, Barrett is in the fold for next several seasons. He’s under contract through 2026-27 with no options. Provided Barrett proves he can fit with Barnes as a forward/wing pairing, the Raptors should be set for a while at that spot. If that pairing doesn’t work, Barrett’s contract isn’t so onerous that he couldn’t be moved as the Raptors continue to find players to maximize Barnes.

Quickley will be a restricted free agent this summer. He reportedly wanted an extension in the range of $25 million AAV, and $100 million overall. That’s fair, but not something the Knicks were likely to do. Locking up that kind of money for Quickley, when Brunson was already in the fold and entrenched as the starting point guard, would have been somewhat questionable for New York.

Toronto doesn’t have those worries. They can give Quickley that type of deal to bring them stability at the point guard position for the next several years. If bidding gets a little higher for Quickley as a restricted free agent, the Raptors can control the process by matching any offer sheet he signs.

As for the rest of this season, there are reports that Toronto will continue to look to trade Pascal Siakam. He’s a pending free agent, and both he and the Raptors had reportedly set a tentative deadline of December 30 to reach an agreement on an extension. If that comes to pass without a new deal, then Toronto could look to move Siakam before risking losing him for nothing this summer.

As of now, there is reportedly no traction on a trade for Siakam, but that could change quickly. Several teams, including the Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers, Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors have expressed interest in Siakam over the past two years. If Toronto chooses to move on from Siakam, they’ll have no problem finding a trade partner.

The key will be what kind of deal the Raptors make. Adding Barrett and Quickley in this trade signals the Raptors are resetting, not rebuilding. Expect a similar type of return for Siakam, in terms of players who can play now.

Assume Toronto will also explore the trade market for Gary Trent Jr., as he’s likely to return to a bench role after this deal. Trent, like Siakam, is set for unrestricted free agency this summer. He’s also extension-eligible, but nothing seems to be moving forward in that area.

Toronto also has over $14 million in expiring salary for Otto Porter Jr. and Thaddeus Young, which would go a long way towards matching contracts in trades. Both are players to keep an eye on ahead of the February 8 trade deadline. As it stands, Toronto is about $2 million under the luxury tax line now. That’s tight, but they should have enough room to make moves, if they want to take on a bit more money.

The Raptors also acquired what looks like it will be the best second-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft in this trade, as they are getting the Detroit Pistons 2024 second-round pick via the Knicks. That pick projects to be the 31st pick, as the Pistons remain mired in a record-setting losing streak as of this writing. That’s a great value for pick for Toronto to have, whether they use it themselves or dangle it in trade talks.

Long-term, the Raptors took on over $100 million in this trade. That figure is likely to jump to over $200 million, once they re-sign Quickley. But the franchise now has a sense of stability with those two in the fold. If they extend Siakam and/or Trent, that stability only increases. If they trade either Siakam or Trent, they’ll have fully reset both the team on the floor and the cap sheet.

Mostly, Toronto now has a sense of optionality that didn’t exist prior to this trade. They can go in a lot of different directions, and it feels like Masai Ujiri might just be getting started in reshaping the Raptors.

 

Keith SmithDecember 27, 2023

The Detroit Pistons made the kind of history on Tuesday night that no one wants to make. The Pistons lost their 27th consecutive single-season game. Next up is the overall record of 28 straight losses, which was set by the “Process” Philadelphia 76ers over two seasons.

Things in Detroit are a mess. And that’s being kind.

The Pistons haven’t sniffed a .500 season since 2018-19. They haven’t had a winning record since 2015-16.

This once-proud franchise hasn’t won a single playoff game since Game 4 of the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals.

Only a couple of four-game sweeps as the eighth seed in a woeful Eastern Conference separate the Pistons from a Sacramento Kings-like run of futility.

So…what needs to happen to fix this?

Detroit’s governor Tom Gores scoffed at the idea that he should sell the team. Under his stewardship, the Pistons have posted a .348 winning percentage. He can tout his and his team’s philanthropic work in the community all he wants, but no Detroit fan is really going to care. All NBA teams do great work in the community. What fans really want is an owner who will hire the right people and write checks that lead to winning.

Assuming Gores is going nowhere, we’ll have to work within the construct that he’s running things. In a recent interview, Gores said he’s deeply involved in trying to help the Pistons snap the losing streak, both this season and overall. The Detroit owner said conversations are happening at such a granular level that he’s talking rotations with Monty Williams.

So, that’s kind of where we’ll start: honest conversations.

Troy Weaver

Troy Weaver took over the Pistons front office in June of 2020. His immediate deals made it clear that Weaver was resetting the franchise in a major way.

While we all laughed at Weaver’s apparent proclivity for acquiring centers, the Pistons were on a path. Detroit’s new general manager was acquiring assets by shipping out players and renting out cap space to take on undesirable salary. Weaver also landed a good free agent signing in Jerami Grant. That seemed contradictory to the teardown process, but he got Grant on a solid value contract. Grant’s deal was immediately deemed tradable, and he eventually was.

Sadly, that was probably the high point of Weaver’s run to date.

The losing continued, which was to be somewhat expected. It’s the rate it’s continued at, with an ever-increasing feeling of hopelessness that wasn’t expected.

That means it’s time for Tom Gores to have an honest conversation with and about Weaver. If there is any doubt that Weaver is the one who should lead this team beyond this season, it’s imperative that Gores fire him now.

The number one enemy of a stable franchise is a bad owner. Right behind that is the hot seat GM.

If Gores isn’t 100% sold that Weaver is the guy to handle an offseason where the Pistons project to have close to $40 million in cap space, then he needs to pull the plug right now. Letting Weaver handle a trade deadline, where he’s fighting for his job, could result in a series of deals and non-deals that set the Pistons even further back then they are now.

Isn’t that a scary thought?

This space will rarely campaign for anyone to lose a job, outside of abhorrent non-basketball behavior. But this space is also realistic enough to know that sometimes it’s just time for change.

Weaver has had three-and-a-half seasons. The Pistons have a .233 winning percentage during that time. They win roughly once every four games. The initial losing was a byproduct of starting over. But it’s only gotten worse.

Weaver has continued to rent out cap space, but he’s never acquired that great package of assets to do so. His free agent signings have been somewhere between irrelevant and bad since inking Grant. The draft has been his sole “success” and that’s still a very open question.

Gores needs to hear Weaver’s plan for today, tomorrow and the next several years. If there is a single part of that plan that doesn’t feel right, it’s time to move on.

Monty Williams

Tom Gores, and whoever is running the front office, next need to have an honest conversation with and about Monty Williams. And the “whoever is running the front office” part is of paramount importance here. If Gores isn’t going to involve the front office in picking a coach, then this entire exercise is futile. Nothing will change if there isn’t synergy at the top of the organization.

Gores is a business man at heart. All business men know you can’t continue to throw good money after bad. Sometimes you have to take your losses and move on.

That’s where it seems like the Pistons might be with Williams.

Yes, Williams is only 30 games into a reported six-year deal that is worth at least $80 million. But he’s lost 28 of those games, including 27 in a row (and counting).

It should have been a red flag/blaring alarm/flashing warning signal when Detroit had to keep going back to Williams to take the job in the first place. Not taking no for an answer is a tenet of business, but knowing when to walk away is just as important.

Now, Detroit is locked into a six-year deal for a ton of money with a coach who doesn’t fit. Some days, Williams seems to want to be anywhere else. Other days, he’s engaged, but is prioritizing all the wrong things.

Is it going to be easy to eat one of the richest coaching contracts in NBA history? Nope. Might it be necessary? Yup.

If Gores can’t have honest conversations with and about his GM and coach, and then make the changes necessary, Pistons fans might as well pick a new team. Nothing is going to change.

The Veterans

Now we get into the on-court stuff. The Pistons have some veteran players that should be desirable trade pieces as we approach the trade deadline. Detroit should be able to get some assets back for these players.

Sound familiar?

It should, because it’s the exact same conversation we had last year. And it’s about some of the exact same players too.

The Pistons didn’t trade Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks last season. A year later, the same conversation about the same players can’t have the same result.

Maybe no one met Detroit’s asking price for either guy last year. Maybe Troy Weaver wanted too much. Maybe it was just that the Pistons really thought they’d be better this year and that those guys would aid in a postseason push.

That’s all fair. We aren’t going to beat them up too much for last year’s decisions. This year, however, it has to be different.

Bogdanovic missed some time with injuries, and he’s not much of a defender anymore, but he’s still a terrific scorer and shooter. His contract is also very movable at $20 million for this season, and only $2 million of his $19 million deal guaranteed next season.

Burks is a different story. He’s having a miserable season. Detroit might have missed their best opportunity to sell high on Burks a year ago.

Detroit should be able to get a protected first-round pick for Bogdanovic. Burks is probably only fetching a second-round pick, and that’s only if a team is convinced that he can get back to being a good shooter.

How the Pistons could improve their return is by putting the two together and taking back some undesirable long-term salary. Would that eat into their cap space this summer? Yes. Does that matter? Not really. Detroit isn’t positioned to be a real free agency player, and this free agent class isn’t that good anyway.

The Pistons should also be looking to see if there is any trade interest in Monte Morris (who has yet to play this season due to a quad injury), Joe Harris and Marvin Bagley III. Playoff teams are always looking for bench help and Morris and Harris both have postseason experience. Both are also on expiring contracts. Bagley has another year left, so he’s probably going to be harder to move. It’s still worth exploring though.

The return for any of Morris, Harris and Bagley won’t be great. Maybe a second-round pick (or two for Morris) is what the Pistons can hope for. Again, if Detroit puts them together and takes on some questionable long-term salary in a trade, the return should go up.

The Kids

For a team in the spot the Pistons are in, we’d usually point to their young players as reason for optimism. For example, the San Antonio Spurs are also terrible, but at least they have Victor Wembanyama and a host of other interesting young players.

For Detroit, that’s much more of a mixed bag.

Cade Cunningham is still a very good prospect. He’s may not hit the heights once hoped for as the first overall pick, but Cunningham is only 22 and he’s showing real signs this year of his all-around ability. Cunningham is still worth building around.

Jalen Duren is the next best prospect on the team. Despite battling injuries this season, Duren looks like a nightly double-double threat who can also protect the rim. He’s a worthy running mate for Cunningham.

Ausar Thompson is also a definite keeper. It’s all semi-unharnessed chaotic energy right now, but there’s a real player in there. Thompson’s skillset already looks like someone who might be the NBA’s most versatile defender someday. And if the shot comes around…

After those three, there are questions. Marcus Sasser shows the most potential. At the very least, he looks like he can be a high-end backup point guard. He’s a keeper.

Isaiah Stewart is fine. On a good team, he’d be an ideal third big. Stewart plays with great energy and his outside shot looks real. But he’s about to be at least slightly overpaid on his rookie scale extension. That puts his true value in a weird place. Detroit should keep him unless they get a good offer, but that’s probably a down-the-line thing.

For Killian Hayes (despite Monty Williams obsession with starting him), James Wiseman and Isaiah Livers, the shine is off them as prospects. Hayes has improved from a terrible shooter to a simply bad one. That’s not good enough. Wiseman remains a complete mystery box. He looks like a keeper one game; then like he’ll be on the fringes of the NBA for the next five games. And, after a promising rookie season, Livers has gotten worse for two consecutive seasons. None are going to be a part of the future in Detroit.

Last, but not least, is Jaden Ivey. He’s truly the hardest player to evaluate of the young Pistons. Ivey had a pretty good rookie season. He wasn’t very efficient, but Ivey could create his own shot, and he was a better playmaker for others than anticipated. This season, Ivey’s role has fluctuated and he’s been kind of a mess. The guess here is that Ivey is closer to the rookie version than what we’ve seen this season.

So, there are five keepers among the kids on the roster. That’s actually pretty solid. It’s also fine to keep Stewart as the rest of the roster sorts out. The rest can be added into trades or deprioritized as the rest of the season plays out.

The Rotation

This is where the Pistons can make the most immediate impact. It won’t translate in wins this year, but that hardly matters anymore. The idea is to build for the future.

One of Tom Gores immediate conversations with Troy Weaver and Monty Williams should be about the goals for the rest of this season. Those should be:

  • Maximizing spacing around Cade Cunningham, as best as possible, to see what he can really be. By April, the Pistons should know if Cunningham is a true number one in progress, or a very good complementary player.
  • Letting Ausar Thompson have some on-ball reps every game. It might be really messy. Actually, it will be really messy. But that’s fine. This is all about him learning.
  • Challenging Jalen Duren with different defensive responsibilities. Play him in drop coverages. Play him at the level of the ball. Switch with him and see what happens. He’ll get burned some, but the idea is to know what works with him as a defensive anchor and what doesn’t.
  • Getting Jaden Ivey more minutes and touches. Play him with Cunningham as a secondary creator. Play him as the lead playmaker for stints. Find out if Ivey is the guy he looked like as a rookie, or if he’s a nice, but replaceable rotation player.
  • In order to do this, Gores or Weaver, or both, have to take some of the tools out of Williams’ tool bag.

Remember the “Can’t play Pena” scene from Moneyball? Brad Pitt’s version of Billy Beane tells Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Art Howe that he can no longer play Carlos Pena over Scott Hatteberg, because Beane has traded Pena.

If Williams won’t stop giving rotation minutes, let alone starts, to guys like Killian Hayes and Marvin Bagley, then it’s probably time to get them off the roster. Those are wasted opportunities to evaluate players who will be a part of the Pistons future.

Beyond that, it’s time to stop giving minutes to guys like James Wiseman, Isaiah Livers, Kevin Knox and Joe Harris. Again, none are going to be a part of the next good Pistons team. Stop wasting minutes and opportunities.

The team should focus on the core guys and the guys who maximize them, while they are still in Detroit. Here’s a proposal for the Pistons rotation for the rest of the season:

Starters

Bench

That’s it. If you want to mix in Joe Harris over Alec Burks, no real complaint here. If you want to see if Isaiah Livers can figure it out with more opportunity, fine. If you want to bring Stanley Umude up from his two-way deal and give him 15 minutes per game, that’s probably even better. Burks is more of a placeholder at this point, than he is a building block.

As for everyone else, they are trade fodder or they sit until their contract runs out. Or, if desired, they can attempt to work a buyout. In that case, Detroit can cycle through their two-way players and G League callups to see if someone pops as a potential long-term roster piece.

That rotation gives the Pistons a good mix of guards, wings and bigs. There’s still not enough shooting, but that’s a handicap of the current roster. The idea is to put the best players around Cunningham to open games, while also making sure the young building blocks see as many minutes as they can handle.

The Offseason

The Pistons can create around $40 million in cap space for the 2024 offseason. That figure could climb even higher, pending what moves are made at the trade deadline and in advance of free agency.

We already outlined what the trade deadline strategy should be for Detroit. We’d move on from as many of the vets as possible, while taking on some money to plus-up returns where possible.

Whether that happens by February 8’s trade deadline or not is almost irrelevant. The strategy should remain the same, no matter what. Detroit isn’t going to be in the mix for the best free agents, assuming any of them even hit the market. It won’t benefit the Pistons to go all-in on a secondary or tertiary free agent option.

That isn’t to suggest the Pistons can have only kids on the roster. Some veteran presence is necessary. But that can be found as free agency winds down and money dries up. Detroit could overpay a veteran or two, or even three, on deals that run for only one or two years.

Players that could fit this mold are Gary Harris, Tauren Prince, Doug McDermott or maybe even Gordon Hayward. For some frontcourt depth, the Pistons could target undervalued players like Moritz Wagner, Drew Eubanks, Mike Muscala or Vlatko Cancar.

None of those players would be headline signings, but all would fit what the Pistons need, while not detracting from any of the kids. All can, at least, shoot or defend. All are professionals who can help the younger players, without stepping on them. And all are attainable, without having to grossly overpay.

Ideally, Detroit will use their cap space by taking on some salary in trades. The key? They need to come away with real assets this time. No more renting out cap space for middling returns. Get valuable draft picks and/or young players. If they can’t, then focus on signing undervalued free agents that can fill roles.

Summary

There is no point in continuing to bail out a boat that has already sunk to the bottom. The only recourse is to get a new boat. Salvage what you can and start your journey anew.

That’s the goal for the Detroit Pistons. There are no quick fixes here. This team might end up being one of the worst in NBA history. So be it. It is what it is.

The goal is to move forward. There are kids who can be a part of the next good Pistons team. There are tradable vets who can return real assets. Managing the cap flexibility is key. Whether it’s smart free agent signings or taking on salary for help returns, the front office has to get that right.

If Troy Weaver and Monty Williams can’t get behind the plan laid out above, then Tom Gores needs to swallow hard and wish them well in their future endeavors. And if Gores isn’t willing to make the hard decisions to get the team headed in a new direction, then those “Sell the team!” chants are only going to get louder and even more persistent.

 

Keith SmithDecember 16, 2023

The Cleveland Cavaliers got dealt a double dose of bad news on Friday afternoon. First, it came out that Darius Garland is set to miss several weeks due to a fractured jaw. Garland was injured in a collision with Kristaps Porzingis early in the second half of the Cavaliers loss to the Boston Celtics on Thursday. It was subsequently reported that Garland would likely miss a month.

Roughly an hour later it was reported that Evan Mobley would miss six-to-eight weeks due to arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Mobley has already missed the Cavs last four games due to the knee injury.

It’s tough to lose a single starter to injury. Losing two of them in the span of an hour is even harder to swallow. And when those starters are an All-Star (Garland) and an All-Defensive team player (Mobley), it’s really hard to fathom.

As of Friday, Cleveland is 13-12 and in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. They’ve had only 11 games with their five starters available. After finishing 51-31 and fourth in the Eastern Conference a season ago, this season has been an injury-marred disappointment.

But all hope isn’t lost for Cleveland. They’ve still got Donovan Mitchell. Jarrett Allen is still backing the NBA’s eighth-best defense. Max Strus could take more shots. Caris LeVert is perfectly capable of increasing his scoring and playmaking. Dean Wade and Georges Niang can help hold down the power forward spot until Mobley returns.

However, it’s rarely about the next man up in the NBA. It’s usually more about who is the “next” next man up. Who steps into the roles behind the backups who have to do more? That’s where problems tend to lie.

For Cleveland, the answers aren’t really clear. When they were in this situation in 2021-22 and needed point guard depth, Koby Altman swung a small trade to pick up Rajon Rondo from the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Cavs have some internal options they could look at, beyond the players already in the rotation that will be asked to do more. And maybe a couple of other players who are out will make their way back into the fold.

One thing is clear: Cleveland needs to find some additional depth for the next several weeks to stay in the playoff hunt. Let’s take a look at where the Cavaliers might find it.

Internal Options

At point guard, Cleveland has some pretty capable options already in the fold. Unfortunately, two of those players are also currently unavailable. Ty Jerome is recovering from a severe ankle sprain that’s kept him out for a month-and-a-half. Ricky Rubio has yet to play this season, as he’s handling a personal situation. It’s unclear when, or if, Rubio will return.

If either Jerome or Rubio were able to go, and the Cavs certainly won’t pressure either of them before they are ready, they’d step in for Dairus Garland. As it stands, the only other actually healthy point guard on the roster is two-way player Craig Porter Jr.

Porter has appeared in 14 games for Cleveland already. The 6-foot-2 playmaker has held up fairly well in backup duty, as he’s averaged 7.2 points in 14.3 minutes per game. Porter isn’t much of a threat from deep, but he’s tough and a good finisher. He’s also got more passing chops than he’s shown in the NBA to this point.

Porter can handle more minutes. But he’s all the Cavs have left at the position at the moment. Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert can play point guard, but both are score-first guys. And neither is ideal for defending opposing ballhandlers.

Also, as a two-way player, there are some issues with relying on Porter to take on a key role over the next several weeks. Players signed to a two-way contract are limited to being on the active roster for 50 games per season. Porter is already at 23 games this season. That’s nearly half of his allotted games. If Garland is out just one month, that would be 13 more games.

That’s not exactly untenable. Cleveland would just have to hope that Garland is back after missing only a month. And, for the rest of the season, they’d have to manage the 14 or so NBA games Porter would have left to be active for.

Up front, the story is a little different. Dean Wade has started the last four games in place of Evan Mobley. It’s likely that will continue. Georges Niang will continue to play a key role off the bench as the backup four and small-ball five.

An additional downside to Mobley being out is that he functions as the Cavs de facto backup center too. Niang can only do so much as a backup for Jarrett Allen. That means some additional minutes could be available for Damian Jones behind Allen.

Jones has been up and down throughout his career. He played well for the Sacramento Kings two seasons ago. Then Jones struggled with the Los Angeles Lakers last season, before remerging with some good games after being traded to the Utah Jazz. Look for Jones to get the first crack at additional minutes, but Cleveland needs to prepared to look elsewhere.

If Niang can hold up to some extent as the backup five, the Cavaliers could have two other two-way players step forward.

Odd as it may be, Isaiah Mobley could benefit from his brother being out. The elder Mobley has seen limited action in his two NBA seasons, but he’s been excellent in the G League over that time. The 6-foot-8 forward has proven to be a double-double threat, as he averaged 22.1 points and 9.9 rebounds over 17 games with the Cleveland Charge. He’s also a decent shot-blocker with 20 blocks over that same set of games.

If Cleveland wants even more scoring punch with upside, they could hand some minutes to rookie two-way player Emoni Bates. The 6-foot-8 wing has seen limited NBA action in seven games, but he’s been tearing up the G League this season. In nine games with the Charge, Bates has averaged 24.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.1 blocks. Even better than his counting stats: Bates has shot 46.3% from the field, and an impressive 42.2% on a whopping 10 three-point attempts per game.

Outside of the two-way players, Cleveland’s only real hope from their internal options is a return to play for Jerome or Rubio. Otherwise, they’re looking outside of the organization to get by.

Free Agent Options

Cleveland is sitting on an open roster spot. Part of the reason the Cavaliers have an open roster spot is that they are just $752,133 beneath the luxury tax line. The Cavs haven’t paid the tax outside of the LeBron James years in their history. That’s acted as a de facto hard cap on adding salary in recent years.

If the Cavs looked to the free agent market for help, they’d find some stopgap options. The question is if any of those players are worth going into the tax for, or leaving Koby Altman looking for a salary-shedding move to dip under the tax by the trade deadline.

If Cleveland was to sign a free agent ahead of their next game on Saturday, December 16, here’s what they’d be looking at for each tier:

  • Rookie Free Agent: $778,547
  • One Year of Service Free Agent: $1,252,954
  • Two-Years of Service Free Agent (veteran minimum): $1,404,508

That’s the prorated amount for each tier of free agent. Even signing a rookie free agent would see Cleveland go over the tax line.

Now, there are some workarounds here. The Cavaliers could sign a free agent to a non-guaranteed contract, keep them until Garland and/or Mobley returns and then waive that player. Let’s say they need that player for 45 days (allotting a bit more time for Garland to return beyond a month), the Cavs would be on the hook for the following in guaranteed salary:

  • Rookie Free Agent: $289,542
  • One Year of Service Free Agent: $465,975
  • Two-Years of Service Free Agent (veteran minimum): $522,338

That would keep Cleveland clear of the tax line, with a little bit of play, should they need to keep the player longer.

It’s worth noting, if Altman wanted to convert one of his two-way players, they would end up on a prorated minimum contract too. Emoni Bates and Craig Porter Jr. are rookies, while Isaiah Mobley has one year of service.

The other option Cleveland could take is to wait until teams are allowed to sign 10-Day contracts. That starts on January 5, 2024. The 10-Day contract tiers are the following for each 10-Day deal:

  • Rookie Free Agent: $64,343
  • One Year of Service Free Agent: $103,550
  • Two-Years of Service Free Agent (veteran minimum): $116,075

That’s definitely an option for the Cavaliers to fill their open roster, while cycling through different players. Two challenges with 10-Day contracts: First, Cleveland would have to wait three weeks to sign a player to such a deal. Second, teams are limited to signing the same player to only two 10-Day deals per season, before they have to sign them for the remainder of the season.

If Cleveland wants to pursue some free agent options, here are some point guards they could look at:

  • Michael Carter-Williams (Mexico City Capitanes): Carter-Williams isn’t scoring much in the G League, nor shooting well. But he’s played well in setting his team up and he’s played very solid defense. He’s also got loads of experience at the NBA level.
  • Scotty Pippen Jr. (South Bay Lakers): Pippen is playing well for the G League Lakers. He’s scoring and shooting at a solid clip, and he’s been an improved playmaker in his second professional season. He looks primed for a callup.
  • Jason Preston (Memphis Hustle): Preston has been one of the G League’s better playmakers this season. He’s also done a nice job getting to the basket and finishing. Preston also has good size for the position.
  • Brandon Goodwin (Westchester Knicks): Goodwin is forever on the fringes of the NBA. He’s been on rosters as a standard and two-way player. Shooting remains a concern, but Goodwin is a tough defender, good rebounder for his size and a solid playmaker. The Cavs also have familiarity with him from previous stints with the team.

If the Cavs feel they need help up front more, here are some G League options worth a look:

  • Mouhamadou Gueye (Raptors 905): Gueye has been one of the best shot-blockers and rebounders in the G League this season. He’s bouncy and athletic and a good finisher. It’s unlikely he makes it much past the G League Showcase next week without at least a two-way deal.
  • Trey Jemison (Birmingham Squadron): Jemison is in the same vein as Gueye. He’s done a nice job blocking shots and he’s even better on the boards. He’s not quite as strong of a finisher, but he has nice touch out to about 10-15 feet.
  • Maozinha Pereira (Mexico City Capitanes): Pereira is a 6-foot-8 ball of energy. He’s all over the glass on both ends and he’s a physical defender with some shot-blocking ability too. He’s also a good finisher in the paint. Pereira can also step out and shoot it a little bit.
  • Meyers Leonard (unsigned): Leonard finished out the year with the Milwaukee Bucks and looked pretty solid. He seemed to work past the off-court racial slur issue that saw him out of the NBA for near two years too. If he’s in shape and wants to play, Leonard is probably worth bringing in for at least a workout to see where he’s at.

Trade Options

The same luxury tax issues exist if the Cavaliers want to make a trade. They probably be limited in how much money they’d want to bring back. Two years ago, Rajon Rondo was a very easy acquisition, because he was on a veteran minimum contract and the Cavs didn’t have to give up much to get him.

This time around, the Cavs are going to be hard-pressed to find such an easy trade target. However, if they are willing to take on some money in a deal, things will open up considerably. And the easiest way to get there is a potentially uncomfortable path, but a familiar one.

At the 2022 trade deadline, Ricky Rubio was out for the season due to a torn ACL. Cleveland used his expiring contract to acquire Caris LeVert. That July, after Rubio’s contract ended, the Cavs re-signed him to the deal he’s currently on.

If Cleveland wants to make a trade, they might be looking at a similar type of situation. Rubio’s $6.1 million contract is their best piece of salary-matching in a trade, that doesn’t belong to a current rotation player. It might be uncomfortable to trade a player who is away from the team dealing with a personal issue, but the history says it could be something Rubio is amenable to again. $4.25 million of Rubio’s $6.4 million contract is guaranteed for 2024-25, so the acquiring team could treat him as a way to get off some longer-team salary that they may not want.

If Cleveland is open to trading Rubio (and, to be clear, they might need to add someone else to plus-up the salary-matching for a bigger salary), here is a list of some players who make sense as trade targets:

Point Guards

  • Alec Burks (Detroit Pistons): one year, $10.5 million remaining

  • T.J. McConnell (Indiana Pacers): two years, $18 million remaining (2024-25 has $5 million of $8.3 million guaranteed)

  • Jordan McLaughlin (Minnesota Timberwolves): one year, $2.3 million remaining

  • Monte Morris (Detroit Pistons): one year, $9.8 million remaining

Bigs

  • Mo Bamba (Philadelphia 76ers): one year, $2 million remaining (veteran minimum deal, would not require salary-matching)

  • Andre Drummond (Chicago Bulls): one year, $3.4 million remaining

  • Sandro Mamukelashvili (San Antonio Spurs: one year, $2 million remaining (veteran minimum deal, would not require salary-matching)

  • Mike Muscala (Washington Wizards): one year, $3.5 million remaining

  • Kelly Olynyk (Utah Jazz): one year, $12.2 million remaining

  • P.J. Tucker (LA Clippers): two years, $22.5 million remaining (2024-25 is a $11.5 million player option)

 

Keith SmithDecember 14, 2023

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last five years, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

  • January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
  • January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
  • January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
  • December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
  • December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the results of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

Here’s an initial list of players to keep an eye on as trade season kicks into full gear:

Zach LaVine (Chicago Bulls)

Contract status: four years, $178 million
2023-24 salary: $40,064,220

Each year, there is a player we can kind of cheat on because they’ve been in the news cycle. This year, it’s LaVine. He’s currently recovering from right foot inflammation, but all reports are clear that LaVine’s time with the Bulls is coming to an end. One challenge? A LaVine trade could drag out until closer to the February 8 trade deadline, because matching salary for $40 million is tricky until more trade restrictions lift on January 15.

Jevon Carter (Chicago Bulls)

Contract status: three years, $19.5 million
2023-24 salary: $6,190,476

Sticking with Bulls for a moment…Yes, Chicago could go the full teardown route and move DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with Zach LaVine, but that doesn’t seem likely. What could happen is Jevon Carter being on the move. Despite being an offseason addition, Carter plays the least in a crowded Bulls backcourt. He has a very movable contract and could help a number of contenders. That’s a oft-seen recipe for a trade.

Reggie Jackson (Denver Nuggets)

Contract status: two years, $10.25 million
2023-24 salary: $5,000,000

This one might seem a little unfair, because Jackson is playing well for the Nuggets. But you have to read the tea leaves a bit in this sort of exercise. Jackson is the only salary Denver has that is large enough to potentially get them a player of value. He also waived his ability to block a trade when he re-signed with Denver this summer. The Nuggets didn’t get that concession for no reason. If Denver makes a meaningful trade, Jackson will probably be involved.

Miles Bridges (Charlotte Hornets)

Contract status: one year, $7.9 million
2023-24 salary: $7,921,301

It was reported over the summer that Bridges and the Hornets never got close on a long-term contract. That led to Bridges signing his qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, before serving the remainder of his suspension from the NBA for the first 10 games of the season. Bridges has played well since his return and looks like the guy who was in line for a max deal before domestic violence incidents cause him to miss last season. Bridges can block any trade, and a team will have to feel comfortable trading for him with his volatile past hanging over him (there’s another pending incident that is being investigated at some level). However, it’s clear Bridges isn’t likely to stay with Charlotte long-term, so that makes him someone teams will check in on for a potential trade.

Gordon Hayward (Charlotte Hornets)

Contract status: one year, $31.5 million
2023-24 salary: $31,500,000

Hayward is having a really good season. He’s shooting well and doing his all-around thing on both ends. Most importantly, he’s held up physically…so far. It’s a big number to trade for, but if a contender needs a player who can do a little to a lot of everything, Hayward should be in play. But it’s buyer beware, because it feels like the next injury is always lurking just around the corner.

Jerami Grant (Portland Trail Blazers)

Contract status: five years, $160 million
2023-24 salary: $27,586,207

When Grant re-signed with Portland this past summer, it felt like it was a “Convince Damian Lillard to stay” move. Lillard ended up asking for, and getting, a trade, but the Blazers maintained they were happy to have Grant staying in the fold. And he’s delivered a very solid season for Portland so far. But the Trail Blazers are rebuilding. It might be early for Grant to get traded, given the length of his contract, but it’s unlikely he’s going to see the end of this deal in Portland. And that means a trade could come while his number is lower and more easily acquirable.


Los Angeles Lakers

Players to watch: D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Austin Reaves

The Lakers are always active on the trade market. They rebuilt their entire roster around LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves during trade season a year ago. If Los Angeles is going to make a significant deal this time around, some package of the players listed above is going to be how it gets done. We listed them in the order of “most likely to be traded” to least likely. D’Angelo Russell waived his implied no-trade clause, likely in exchange for some additional salary. That didn’t happen because a trade is off the table. Keep an eye on the Lakers over the next month or so.

Detroit Pistons

Players to watch: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Monte Morris

Detroit hung onto Bogdanovic and Burks last season because no one met their asking price, and they intended to be a postseason contender this season. Well, after 21 consecutive losses (as of this writing), Detroit can’t afford such luxuries this time around. They don’t need to give their veterans away, but it’s time to trade them off to contenders before the deadline. That’ll see the Pistons starting over yet again, but there’s no reason to keep bailing out this boat when it’s already at the bottom of the lake.

San Antonio Spurs

Players to watch: Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, Cedi Osman

The Spurs are almost as bad as the Pistons. They’ve lost 18 straight (as of this writing), but they at least have Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio also has a glut of wings that only kind of, sort of fit together. Recent reporting is that Johnson could be on the move to break up that logjam. McDermott and Osman are on expiring contracts and fill the ever-present need of wing shooting with size for contenders. Also worth noting: The Spurs have been a lot more active with in-season trades in recent years, after famously sitting out the trade deadline for the better part of two decades.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Tyus Jones, Delon Wright, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Landry Shamet

Washington is basically Detroit and San Antonio bad, minus the absurdly long losing streaks. The Wizards intentionally set upon this path though. After years of muddling around the middle, Washington’s new front office kicked off a long-awaited rebuild. Jordan Poole’s and Kyle Kuzma’s contracts might be too large to move in-season, but the Wizards have a host of tradable role players that could help playoff teams. All of the above players are on expiring or pseudo-expiring contracts too. That could make them really attractive to a team that wants to make a playoff push, but doesn’t want to lock in long-term just yet.

 

Keith SmithDecember 11, 2023

It doesn’t always go this way, but sometimes the eye test matches the statistical analysis of a player. Sometimes you look at the stats, check out the film and it all just makes sense.

That’s De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings this season.

The numbers show improvement all over the floor for Fox. Watching him play matches those numbers. The seventh-year guard isn’t a drastically different player in terms of look or style. But subtle changes are there, and they’ve made all the difference in Fox going from a good player to an All-Star to an All-NBA level of player over the last few seasons.

2022-23 was the first season that Fox finished the year above 50% from the field (he shot 51.2% overall). Working an expertly-crafted two-man game with Domantas Sabonis, Fox took 42.2% of his shots in and around the paint. That was down a bit from the prior season, when the Kentucky product was at 46.6% of his shots in the same area.

Where did those four percentage points go from 2021-22 to 2022-23? To three-pointers. Fox took 27.6% of his shots from behind the arc last season, up from 22.8% the prior season.

This season, Fox’s shot profile has changed even more dramatically. And it’s made all the difference.

Fox is still in the same range in and around the paint, as he’s at 41.2% of his shots coming from that area. This season though, Fox is at a whopping (for him) 36.2% of his shots coming from behind the arc.

How did he get there? The Kings point guard has limited his mid-range attempts to 17.5% of his shot diet (his lowest mark in the last three seasons). More importantly, Fox has all but eliminated the long two-point shot from his profile. This season, just 0.5% of his shots are long twos. That’s the lowest mark of his career.

Essentially, Fox has turned a few less shots near the basket and a lot fewer mid-range and long-twos into three-pointers. And he’s done so with the best three-point shooting of his career, in terms of volume plus efficiency. Fox is hitting 36.9% of his 8.1 three-point attempts per game. That easily tops his previous high of 5.5 triples attempted per game.

When you watch Fox, he remains arguably the fastest player in the NBA with the ball in his hands. He’s still a blur, but it’s a bit more selective now. The Kings no longer race up and down the floor with a “we’ll figure it out when we get there” attitude. Everything is a lot more calculated and that’s keyed by Fox and Sabonis.

Sabonis is one of the league’s best rebounders. It’s common for a possession to start with Sabonis pulling a board off the glass and outlet passing it to Fox, like one would pluck an apple off the tree and toss it to a companion. What doesn’t happen as much anymore is Fox then turning on the jets and attacking the rim while two or three teammates are still making it over halfcourt.

Those pell-mell drives have been replaced with Fox letting Sabonis get to his spot at the top of the key. From there, the two work opponents into submission with traditional pick-and-roll and dribble-hand-off plays. Press up too much to take those actions away, and the Kings back cut and flare into layups and open jumpers.

Sacramento’s offense isn’t as destructive as last season. There are a lot of reasons for this. They aren’t catching anyone by surprise anymore. Teams know the Kings are good and respect them as such. They aren’t making as many shots and the free throws are down a bit. That’s probably related to the lack of surprise from opponents. Everything is a little harder, but the Kings are still making it work.

And that’s largely because of Fox. We talked about the change in his shooting profile, but he’s also moving the ball well and getting on the glass more than ever. His defense is also more engaged, as he’s harnessed his speed and quickness for more than just beating people on the other end. He’s also attempting more free throws than ever, which signifies he’s gotten the respect from officials, as well as opponents.

If you add it all up, De’Aaron Fox is a star. And he’s going to get paid like one.

Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported that Fox turned down a two-year, $105 million extension from the Kings this past summer. (Depending on the cap projection you use, Fox could have gotten slightly more at just over $107 million.) It was reported that Fox did so in hopes of earning an even bigger extension from Sacramento down the line.

Fox is in Year 3 of the five-year rookie scale extension he signed with Sacramento in November of 2020. (Note: the NBA was working on an adjusted calendar in 2020, due to the COVID-19 impacted seasons) He has two seasons and nearly $72 million (fully guaranteed) left on that extension after this one.

That deal, plus Fox’s improved play, give him all kinds of options on his next deal. Let’s dive in!

The Veteran Extension

Let’s start by saying Fox can’t extend right now. His window to sign any sort of extension closed when this season started. He’ll have to wait until the 2024 offseason to ink any kind of extension.

Fox could sign a Veteran Extension this coming summer that looks like this:

  • 2024-25: $34,848,340 (Year 4 of current contract)
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $51,546,000 (Year 1 of a Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $55,669,680 (Year 2 of a Veteran Extension)
  • 2028-29: $59,793,360 (Year 3 of a Veteran Extension)
  • Total: three years, $167,009,040 in new money via a Veteran Extension

This one is a bit complicated, so hang with us here. Fox is in Year 7 of his career right now. When his current contract ends, he’ll have nine years of service. That qualifies, and caps, him for an extension that starts at 30% of the cap. For now, that projects to be $51,546,000 for the 2026-27 season.

Fox could technically sign an extension for 140% of the final year of his current contract. That would be for $51,935,268 in first-year salary. As that number is above Fox’s currently projected max salary for the 2026-27 season, he’d end up capped at the 30% of the cap amount and $51,546,000.

In reality, how this would likely work is that Fox would extend for 140% amount, and if the cap doesn’t go up enough, his salary would force back down to the 30% of the cap maximum.

In this case, we’re using the projected $51,546,000 maximum amount, plus 8% raises, to determine the Fox’s Veteran Extension number.

The potentially bigger challenges? If Fox extended as early as this summer via the Veteran Extension, he’d only be allowed to add three new years to his contract. Contracts extended via the Veteran Extension can only total five years in length, including years remaining on the current contract. And he’d be capped at the 30% of the cap maximum.

That leaves Fox waiting and playing for more. Let’s take a look what’s potentially at stake.

The Designated Veteran Extension signed in 2024

In order to qualify to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2024, which would allow for Fox to jump to the 35% of the cap maximum salary tier and to add an additional year, he would have to achieve one of the following this season:

  • Win MVP
  • Win Defensive Player of the Year
  • Make an All-NBA Team

As much as Fox has improved, he’s probably not going to win MVP. We can also safely take DPOY of the table too. But an All-NBA nod is very much in play.

If Fox qualified for a Designated Veteran Extension and signed it this summer, that deal would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $34,848,340 (Year 4 of current contract)
  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $60,137,000 (Year 1 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960 (Year 2 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2028-29: $69,758,920 (Year 3 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2029-30: $74,569,880 (Year 4 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • Total: four years, $269,413,760 in new money via a Designated Veteran Extension

In this scenario, Fox could add four years of new money on his deal. The contract would start at the projected 35% of the cap maximum of $60,137,000 and would include 8% raises.

Comparing new money in a Designated Veteran Extension to new money in a Veteran Extension, you can see Fox stands to add more than $100 million in new money.

It’s easy to see why Fox is betting on himself. There’s one more scenario worth exploring though.

The Designated Veteran Extension signed in 2025

Let’s say De’Aaron Fox doesn’t choose the path chosen by fellow Kentucky products Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns, who both signed four-year Designated Veteran Extensions as soon as they were able. Fox could choose to delay signing his extension by a year to add even more money, but it comes at a risk.

For one, Fox would have to be certain he could make All-NBA for the 2024-25 season (or win MVP or DPOY). If he misses out for 2024-25, Fox would no longer be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2025.

But let’s say he either doesn’t qualify for Designated Veteran Extension status this season, or he chooses to wait, but does qualify next season, here’s what Fox would be looking at extending for in the summer of 2025:

  • 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
  • 2026-27: $60,137,000 (Year 1 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960 (Year 2 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2028-29: $69,758,920 (Year 3 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2029-30: $74,569,880 (Year 4 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • 2030-31: $79,380,840 (Year 5 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
  • Total: five years, $348,794,600 in new money via a Designated Veteran Extension

Whew boy!

Those numbers are staggering, even more so than the four-year Designated Veteran Extension. Nearly $350 million in total money, and approaching $80 million in the final year of the deal. For perspective, Years 4 and 5 would be worth more than the $70 million per season that Shohei Ohtani just got from the Los Angeles Dodgers in Major League Baseball.

To recap: This is the 35% of the cap maximum salary in 2026-27 with 8% raises, but with the addition of a fifth year.

The Designated Veteran Contract

Let’s say De’Aaron Fox missed out on All-NBA in 2023-24 AND 2024-25. He’ll have one more chance to qualify for big money by making All-NBA in 2025-26 (or, of course, winning MVP or DPOY).

If Fox were to make All-NBA in the final year of his current contract in 2025-26, he’d be eligible for the exact same deal listed out as above. However, this would not be as an extension, but as a new contract. The salaries and years would be the same, starting at 35% of the cap maximum in 2026-27 with 8% raises over a five-year contract.

Summary

De’Aaron Fox has established himself as an All-Star. His play, through the eye test and the stats, supports that. And, just as importantly, the Sacramento Kings are winning.

Sacramento has been aggressive in extending their own players, as seen with Fox’s rookie scale extension. He got the max he could, when some were questioning if that was too much. Clearly, the Kings front office got that one right.

Sacramento was equally as proactive in extending Domantas Sabonis. They used cap space to renegotiate Sabonis’ contract for this season to then give him four years and $186 million in new money.

Expect the Kings to be similarly aggressive with Fox. Clearly, from Chris Haynes’ reporting for Bleacher Report, Sacramento already tried to extend the All-Star guard. This relationship isn’t breaking up anytime soon. Both sides want it to continue. It’s just about timing things out for the right deal for both sides.

Fox was right to decline that extension offer. Yes, more than $100 million for two new seasons is incredible money for a guy who has earned about $115 million in his career to date. But Fox is in position to cash in even more.

If Fox makes All-NBA this season, expect him to ink a four-year Designated Veteran Extension that currently projects at $269.4 million in new salary. That’s the path that both Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns took with the Designated Veteran Extensions. It’s the smart one, as the player both capitalizes on what they’ve earned, while removing the risk of having to do it again the next season.

But it’s that second part that is also key. Let’s say Fox’s play falls off and he doesn’t make All-NBA this season. He’ll still have two more cracks at making it in either 2024-25 or 2025-26. And if he does it then, he’ll be able to sign for five years on his next deal, instead of being capped at four years.

It’s also fair to speculate if either the four- or five-year option, should Fox qualify, will come with a player option on the final season. Fox will be 28 years old, and in the frontend of his prime, when his current contract extends. His next deal, no matter what fashion it comes in, will see him wrap it up in his early-30s. An option on the final season, could be in play. Towns got one in his deal, while Booker didn’t. Jaylen Brown didn’t get one in his five-year Designated Veteran Extension, but Bradley Beal did (along with a trade bonus and the coveted and infamous no-trade clause!) in his recent max deal.

It’s looking likely that a player option may be the only source of real negotiation for De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings. Everything points to Fox making the All-NBA leap over the next year or two. At that point, a “supermax” deal is coming. It’s just a matter of when, not if.

 

Keith SmithDecember 06, 2023

NBA Expansion is coming. On Tuesday, December 5 in an interview with SiriusXM NBA Radio, NBA commissioner Adam Silver all but confirmed the NBA will expand. Silver didn’t make any commitments, but he again referenced Las Vegas and Seattle as potential cities and reaffirmed a post-new media rights deal timeline.

In Part 1 of our NBA Expansion series we talked how NBA expansion works, including potential timelines and how the bid process will work.

Now, we’ll cover the rules for an Expansion Draft and how Protected Player Lists actually work. The goal here is to educate anyone who is inclined to write about expansion or to undertake a mock expansion draft. This will hopefully serve as a guide to making those exercises as accurate as possible, while also providing some history behind previous Expansion Drafts.

(Note: This is assuming that the NBA follows the same rules that they have for previous expansion drafts. There is no indication that the league will change any of the rules or processes ahead of a new round of expansion.)

Timing of an Expansion Draft

Following past practices, the NBA will approve the addition of Expansion Teams a year or more ahead of them beginning play. Once teams are approved, the league will set a date for the Expansion Draft. This will take place in advance of that year’s NBA Draft.

In an ideal world, the NBA would likely want to schedule an Expansion Draft to take place in between the end of that year’s NBA Finals and the NBA Draft. This will allow for the Expansion Draft to take place without distracting from the Finals, but in advance of the Draft. With news that the league is considering a two-night NBA Draft, timing of each event can be sequenced to allow for maximum prep time.

(In 2004, the Expansion Draft was scheduled to be held on June 22, with a one-day pushback to June 23 if the 2004 NBA Finals went to a seventh game. That year’s NBA Draft was held on June 24. As the 2004 NBA Finals did not go to a seventh game, the Expansion Draft was held on June 22, with the NBA Draft on June 24.)

NBA teams would be given a deadline to submit Protected Player Lists in advance of the Expansion Draft, likely somewhere in the range of a week ahead of the Expansion Draft. To the best of our exhaustive research and knowledge, this information, both the deadlines and the lists themselves, have not been made public. Some partial lists exist, but the NBA has never made them publicly available.

Protected Player Lists

Each of the NBA’s existing 30 teams will be allowed to protect players ahead of an expansion draft. Teams are allowed to protect players who fit one of the following categories:

  • Players under contract

  • Players who are restricted free agents (there is a quirk to this that we will cover next)

  • Players who have a player or team option for the following season

  • Any player who is a pending unrestricted free agent cannot be protected

There are some more rules related to protecting players:

  • Each team can protect up to eight players (but can choose to protect less)

  • Each team must expose at least one player (but can choose to expose more) that can’t become an unrestricted free agent

  • If a restricted free agent is drafted, they automatically become an unrestricted free agent (if selected, the former restricted free agent can not re-sign with their original team)

  • Player status is as of the day of the draft (this pertains to players with player or team options)

Expansion Draft Order

As for the draft process itself, it’s fairly simply. In past expansions that featured more than one team, the NBA held a coin flip between the two teams. The winning team was given the option to select either the higher pick in that year’s NBA Draft or the higher selection in the Expansion Draft.

Note: Expansion teams are often saddled with conditions on how high they can select in a draft. Here are some examples:

  • 2004: The Charlotte Bobcats were given the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft

  • 1995: The Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies were given the sixth and seventh overall picks and were restricted from picking first overall for their first four years in the NBA

  • 1989: The Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic were given the 10th and 11th overall picks

  • 1988: The Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat were given the eighth and ninth overall picks

In 1995, when the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies joined the league, the Grizzlies won the coin flip. They chose to have the higher pick in the 1995 NBA Draft, which gave Toronto the first pick in the 1995 Expansion Draft.

In 1989, when the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic joined the NBA, the Magic won the coin flip. They chose to have the first pick in the 1989 Expansion Draft. That gave the Timberwolves the higher pick in the 1989 NBA Draft.

In the prior year in 1988, when the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat joined the NBA, the Hornets won the coin toss and selected to have the higher pick in the 1988 NBA Draft. That gave the Miami Heat the first pick in the 1988 Expansion Draft.

The Expansion Draft

Once the draft order is set, the teams are set for the draft. This is done in a back-and-forth order, not in a snake draft format. Here are some of the rules for the Expansion Draft:

  • Each NBA team can only lose one player from their unprotected list. Once a player has been selected, the remaining players from that team are removed from eligibility to be selected.

  • If a team is over the cap and has a player selected, they receive a Traded Player Exception (TPE) for the exact value of that team’s salary. (Note: This does not apply to restricted free agents. It must be a player who is under contract for the over-the-cap team to receive a TPE.)

  • The teams then alternate selections until one player has been selected from each team. In the case of the Charlotte Bobcats in the 2004 Expansion Draft, they selected 19 players and the draft was then ended. Charlotte could have selected between 14 and 29 players, but chose to stop at 19 selections.

  • Morbid as it may be, the NBA reserves the right to conduct a similar process in what they call a “restocking draft”. This process would be undertaken should a team suffer a tragedy that permanently prevents five or more players from being able to play (death, dismemberment or permanent disability).

You might be wondering what happens if a team has more than eight players that they want to keep. If that is the case, the existing team can work a deal with one, or both, of the expansion teams to select or not select certain players.

How this has worked in the past is the team has made a trade with one of the Expansion Teams to select a certain player, or to not select certain players. Here’s a brief example of pre-Expansion Draft trades that teams have made with this in mind:

  • 2004: The Bobcats acquired the second overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft from the LA Clippers in exchange for the fourth overall pick and the 33rd overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. As part of the deal, the Bobcats agreed to select Predrag Drobnjak in the draft. (The Bobcats drafted Emeka Okafor and the Clippers selected Shaun Livingston and Lionel Chalmers.)

  • 2004: The Bobcats agreed to select Jahidi White from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for a future first-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 2005 and Charlotte drafted Sean May.)

  • 1995: The Grizzlies agreed to select Rodney Dent from the Orlando Magic in exchange for a future second-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 1996 and Vancouver drafted Randy Livingston.)

In addition, teams will sometimes make selections during the Expansion Draft with future trades in mind. The Charlotte Bobcats made two such select-and-trade deals in 2004:

  • The Bobcats selected Zaza Pachulia from the Orlando Magic. Pachulia was then traded to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for the 45th overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft. (Charlotte drafted Bernard Robinson.)

  • The Bobcats selected Sasha Pavlovic from the Utah Jazz. Pavlovic was then traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for a future first-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 2007 and Charlotte drafted Jared Dudley.)

On the flip side, existing teams will often leave players unprotected in an Expansion Draft that are have an undesirable contract. A team could attempt to incentivize an Expansion Team to select that player by offering a draft pick or another player in a trade. If that happens, the existing team removes the salary from their books and, if over the cap, creates a TPE for the amount of the selected player’s salary.

Post-Expansion Draft

Once the Expansion Draft is complete, the Expansion Teams more or less run like every other NBA team. Expansion Teams do work under a reduced salary cap (as well as a salary floor that is 90% of the Expansion Team’s cap) for their first two years of existence. In Year 1, Expansion Teams are limited to 66.6% of the league-wide salary cap. In Year 2, that goes up to 80% of the league-wide salary cap. In Year 3, everything normalizes, and Expansion Teams are treated the same as the rest of the league.

(Note: The above is a change from the previous of a Year 1 cap of 80% of the league-wide salary cap and a Year 2 cap of 90% of the league-wide salary cap for Expansion Teams.)

As noted above, if a team selects a restricted free agent, that player becomes an unrestricted free agent. That player cannot re-sign with the team they were with pre-Expansion Draft. The Expansion Team would have their unrestricted free agent rights (Bird, Early Bird or Non-Bird) as appropriate, and a corresponding cap hold.

If a team selects a player with a player or team option, that player or team can still choose for the player to become a free agent by not exercising their option. The Expansion Team would then have their unrestricted free agent rights (Bird, Early Bird or Non-Bird) as appropriate, and a corresponding cap hold.

If an Expansion Team waives a player they selected in the Expansion Draft prior to the beginning of the season, that player’s salary is removed from their cap sheet. The player is still paid, and the salary still counts towards the team’s salary floor, but the team no longer has a cap hit for the waived player.

What’s Next

Now that we’ve covered the timeline and process for expansion, as well as the rules for an Expansion Draft, we’ll move into some of the strategy components in future articles in the series.

In the next installment, we’ll cover what the cap sheet for an Expansion Team would look like in Year 1 and Year 2. We’ll do a couple of mock examples to explain how an Expansion Team might handle their cap in Year 1 and Year 2. We’ll do these examples as if Expansion was happening this coming year, ahead of the 2024-25 season. That way, we can use real world examples as far as players and salaries go.

After that, we’re going to dive deep into the history and strategy of the past couple of rounds of expansion. We’ll cover protected lists (to the extent we are able, as this information is not publicly available) and the Expansion Draft strategies themselves. We’ll look at this both for the Expansion Teams, as well as the existing teams.

Then we’ll look at the post-Expansion Draft work that teams did and what their inaugural rosters looked like. From there, we’ll examine how long it took Expansion Teams to become competitive: How long before the playoffs are a reality? How long before the team won a playoff series? And when did they become a real contender?

Then, we’ll start the Mock Expansion Draft process. We’ll put together some Mock Protected Player Lists (based off current rosters) and the strategy behind them. And then we’ll run a Mock Expansion Draft, and explain the strategy that we took for each team involved. We’ll do several versions of this, right up until we have Expansion for real!

 

Keith SmithNovember 30, 2023

The Chicago Bulls were 27-13 on January 14, 2022. The Bulls got crushed by the Golden State Warriors that day, to drop a second game in what would become a four-game losing streak.

From that point forward, Chicago has gone 64-79. That’s a .448 winning percentage. Not bad enough to be in great draft position, and certainly not good enough to be a real playoff contender. That’s squarely in the NBA purgatory that’s so hard to escape.

January 14, 2022 also happens to be the last time Lonzo Ball appeared in a game for the Bulls. Ball is in Year 3 of the four-year, $80 million contract he signed as a part of a sign-and-trade to Chicago ahead of 2021-22 season.

Ball has appeared in 35 of 183 total regular season games while on that contract.

This isn’t to put blame for Chicago’s failures on Ball and the series of knee surgeries he’s had over the past two years. It’s more to point out that there is a clear delineation point of where things went wrong for the Bulls. It’s rare that you can pinpoint where things turned sour, but it’s very clear in Chicago’s case.

Now, here we are. A team that has gone from briefly good to decidedly average to bad in a three-season span. The worst part? The Bulls are currently bad without hope.

Now, it’s fair to note here that the Bulls have very, very rarely bottomed out under Jerry Reinsdorf’s reign as the team’s owner. Even when Chicago got the first overall pick to draft Derrick Rose in 2008, that involved a considerable amount of lottery luck.

Under Reinsdorf, Chicago has preferred to stay competitive, even when everything else screams going in the other direction. For about a 15-year period, John Paxson and Gar Forman had the Bulls in the playoffs every year, even if only one of those seasons saw the team considered a real title contender.

At the end of the “GarPax” run leading the front office, the Bulls were a mess. They didn’t bottom out, as much as years of bad decisions pushed Chicago to the bottom of the standings. Enter Arturas Karnisovas.

After a predictably messy first season, which was spent resetting things, Karnisovas made his big splash in the summer of 2021. Karnisovas added Ball and DeMar DeRozan in a pair of sign-and-trade deals and signed Alex Caruso as a free agent. That threesome alongside Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic propelled Chicago that impressive start in 2021-22.

Almost two years later, all five players are still on the Bulls. And Chicago is no longer that fun team that’s full of potential. Instead, the team stinks, the cap sheet is a mess and they’re mostly devoid of young talent.

It’s time to break up the Bulls.

We’re going to present some sensible trade ideas that could get Chicago turned in the right direction. It’s important to note that we’re going to present trades as if Karnisovas has the buy-in from ownership to tear things down. Mostly, this is what we would do, and what we think the Bulls should do, as opposed to what Chicago will actually do.

Trade Assets

High-value

Alex Caruso: two years, $19,350,000 ($16,350,000 guaranteed)

DeMar DeRozan: one year, $26,800,000

Zach LaVine: four years, $178,063,200

Nikola Vucevic: three years, $60,000,000

Mid-range

Jevon Carter: three years, $19,500,000

Torrey Craig: two years, $5,373,575 (veteran minimum contract)

Ayo Dosunmu: three years, $21,000,000

Andre Drummond: one year, $3,600,000

Coby White: three years, $36,000,000

Patrick Williams: one year, $9,835,881

Minimum-value

Lonzo Ball: two years, $41,860,465

Julian Phillips: four years, $8,119,739

Terry Taylor: two years, $4,216,676 (veteran minimum contract, $700,000 guaranteed)

Dalen Terry: three years, $12,260,358

Draft Pick Situation

The Bulls first-round picks are a bit messy. They own their own pick in 2024. They owe a pick with sliding protections to the San Antonio Spurs (top-10 protected in 2025, top-8 protected in 2026 and 2027). Chicago then owns their own first-round pick from 2028 to 2030. The Bulls are also owed a first-round pick from the Portland Trail Blazers. That pick is lottery-protected from 2024 through 2028.

In the second round, the Bulls have traded their picks from 2024 through 2027, That means the earliest Chicago can have selection would be in 2028, and that’s only if they’ve conveyed a first-round pick to the Spurs by then. They’ll get an additional pick in the second round in 2028 if Portland hasn’t conveyed them a first-rounder by then. The Bulls then own their own second-round picks in 2029 and 2030.

Essentially: Chicago is doing ok on first-round picks, but could use more. They are pretty light on second-round selections.

The Cap and Tax Situation

The Bulls are a tick below the luxury tax for this current season. Given that they’ve paid the tax just twice in franchise history, that’s a marker they’ll be looking to stay under.

Going into the 2024 offseason, Chicago projects to be roughly $37 million under the tax. That sounds good, but that’s with four open roster spots and without new contracts for DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams, Torrey Craig and Andre Drummond.

Re-signing simply the first two players, and then filling out the roster with minimums, would put the Bulls at or over the tax line.

In the summer of 2025, pending moves between now and then, the Bulls could be a cap space team. Lonzo Ball’s contract will have expired by then, and that’s a major stumbling block for Chicago having some cap flexibility.

The Trades

We’re getting to the good stuff now! Remember, the idea here is to reset things for the Bulls in a major way. Is this team going to be bad the rest of this season? They sure are! But they are probably going to be bad anyway. Our goal here is to give Chicago some hope for the future. We’re hoping to achieve that by adding some additional draft capital, young talent and resetting the cap sheet.

Trade 1

Chicago Bulls receive:

Ivica Zubac (two years, $22,676,543), Russell Westbrook (two years, $7,863,263), Amir Coffey (two years, $7,604,938)

LA Clippers receive:

Nikola Vucevic (three years, $60,000,000), Terry Taylor (two years, $4,216,676 – veteran minimum)

Rationale:

This trade is about clearing out the short- and long-term money owed to Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls save about $2 million this season, but they end up saving roughly $21.8 million over the next three seasons. And Ivica Zubac’s, Amir Coffey’s and Russell Westbrook’s deals all expire after the 2024-25 season. That gets Chicago out of the final year of Vucevic’s deal.

The assumption is that Chicago would either straight waive Westbrook or would buy him out. Because he makes far less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Westbrook would be free to join any team that needs a point guard for the stretch run.

On the Clippers side, they add Vucevic, who gives them a better offensive fit alongside their star trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden. The Clippers also clear out a bit of backcourt logjam this way, without having to waive Westbrook.

Trade 2

Chicago Bulls receive:

Bennedict Mathurin (three years, $23,349,373 – rookie scale), Jordan Nwora (one year, $3,000,000), Jalen Smith (two years, $10,461,159), Marcus Morris (one year, $17,116,279), first-round pick from Indiana, first-round pick from Philadelphia

Indiana Pacers receive:

Zach LaVine (four years, $178,063,200), Torrey Craig (two years, $5,373,575 – veteran minimum), Mo Bamba (one year, $2,009,706 – veteran minimum)

Philadelphia 76ers receive:

Buddy Hield (one-year, $19,279,841), Andre Drummond (one-year, $3,360,000)

Rationale:

Chicago isn’t likely to turn Zach LaVine into a better package than this. He’s good, but not great. In this deal, the Bulls get a young wing with upside in Bennedict Mathurin and two first-round picks. Jordan Nwora and Jalen Smith are both flyers. Maybe they pop, maybe they don’t. The assumption is that Morris would either be waived, take a buyout or the Bulls would bench him until his contract expires.

As for the picks, Indiana owns all of their owns picks. Chicago could negotiate for something more immediate or something down the line. Philadelphia is now armed with the ability to trade a pick, likely one of the ones they got in the James Harden deal.

As for finances, the Bulls achieve massive savings here. They send out roughly $46 million in salary for this season. They bring back about $32 million. That’s nearly $14 million in savings for this season. The long-term savings are even greater, as they clear out nearly $138 million owed to Zach LaVine beyond this season, while adding only $22 million.

For the Pacers, this is how they can add an All-Star-level player. Indiana isn’t attracting stars in free agency, so they have to trade for or develop them. Buddy Hield doesn’t seem long for the Pacers, so the real give-ups here are Mathurin and the first-round pick. LaVine would be an upgrade alongside Haliburton and would make the Pacers offense even more unstoppable than it already is.

Torrey Craig would also be a nice defensive-minded addition for the wing rotation. And Mo Bamba becomes the third center, behind Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson.

As for the Sixers, they get the shooter they need. The real cost for acquiring Hield is the first-round pick. Marcus Morris and Mo Bamba are end-of-the-bench guys at this point. Hield and Andre Drummond are major upgrades over both players. And, as an added bonus, Philadelphia doesn’t take on any salary beyond this season. They still have all the same cap flexibility that they previously had.

Trade 3

Chicago Bulls receive:

Brandon Clarke (four years, $50,000,000), Luke Kennard (two years, $29,527,272 – second-year team option), first-round pick from Memphis

Memphis Grizzlies receive:

DeMar DeRozan (one year, $28,600,000), Jevon Carter (three years, $19,500,000)

Rationale:

This is about doing right by DeRozan and sending him to a team he can help. Yes, the Grizzlies are currently worse than the Bulls, but they have some hope of righting the ship when they get Ja Morant back and some others return from injury.

Clarke is owed a decent chunk of change, so Chicago is actually adding some long-term salary in this deal. But Clarke could be a starting big when he returns in 2024-25. At $12.5 million per season, that’s a value deal. Kennard will likely play out the season providing some shooting to a roster that is somewhat light on it. Then, the Bulls can either decline his option, or pick it up and look to trade him in a deal next summer. And, like in the previous trades, getting an additional first-round pick is huge for the rebuilding Bulls.

Memphis gets the scoring punch they desperately need in DeRozan. And Carter gives them some continued insurance at point guard. For a first-round pick, of which the Grizzlies own all of their picks, you can’t ask for more than this return.

Trade 4

Chicago Bulls receive:

Dyson Daniels (three years, $19,551,349 – rookie scale), Kira Lewis Jr. (one year, $5,722,116), first-round pick from Milwaukee (via New Orleans)

New Orleans Pelicans receive:

Alex Caruso (two years, $19,350,000 – second season $3 million guaranteed)

Rationale:

The Bulls get yet another first-round pick, plus they get a young guard/wing with some upside in Dyson Daniels. He fits in nicely in the new rebuilding group of young players Chicago has. The Bulls can also take a look at Kira Lewis Jr. before making a decision on his free agency in the summer.

Financially, the Bulls take on some money, but it’s in the form of Daniels’ rookie scale deal. That’s a win.

The Pelicans add a veteran guard/wing to the rotation. Alex Caruso is a top-tier defender and a combination of him and Herb Jones would be very hard to score on. Caruso can also play alongside any of the Pelicans stars, as he’s a good off-ball player. For Daniels and an extra pick, New Orleans can’t do much better. Bonus: this deal has them within one minor salary-dump of getting out of the luxury tax.

Trade 5

Chicago Bulls receive:

Isaac Okoro (one year, $8,920,795)

Cleveland Cavaliers receive:

Ayo Dosunmu (three years, $21,000,000), Dalen Terry (three years, $12,260,358 – rookie scale)

Rationale:

This one is about the Bulls getting out of the long-term money owed to Ayo Dosunmu and Dalen Terry. After this series of deals, Chicago has better options at lead guard, making Dosunmu a luxury. Isaac Okoro is a guy who could still pop with increased playing time, and then the Bulls can make a decision on his free agency this summer.

The Cavaliers could use another guard behind Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Dosunmu can give them some solid backup play at either spot. Okoro had fallen out of the rotation, as Cleveland added some additional wing depth this past summer. Terry is a flyer for a Cavs team that is going to be around the luxury tax line. If he develops, they’ll have a cost-controlled player as the roster gets expensive.

Overall

Making five trades, especially ones of this scale is highly unlikely for any team. For the notably change-resistant Chicago Bulls, it’s almost unfathomable. But these are the kinds of moves the Bulls should consider making. It would constitute a nearly full teardown. Only Lonzo Ball would remain of the players owed significant money, and he becomes an expiring contract in the 2024-25 season.

We won’t attempt to make the claim that this end-result Bulls would be good. They’d likely be among the worst teams in the NBA. But that’s not exactly a bad result.

Chicago could have a great pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. They’d have a bunch of interesting young players, and some vets on tradable contracts. And they’d have picked up four additional first-round picks as they rebuild.

The cap sheet would also be incredibly clean. For 2024-25, the Bulls could be looking at north of $75 million in cap space. If they kept their powder dry and slow-played things for one more season, they could easily have more than $100 million in cap space in the summer of 2025.

Blowing up a team is never easy. At best, it’s a signal of moving away from some great years (see: Boston Celtics in 2013). At worst, it’s an admission of failure. Much like a summer abroad, the Bulls had a great couple of months. It’s time to move on and let them be fun memories to return to on a dreary Chicago day.

The way forward isn’t to keep chasing after that short window of being really good team. That’s over. It’s not happening for this group. The best path now is one that involves taking things down to the very foundation and starting to build back up again. These trades, or ones like them, could put the Bulls on a path to being something better than the middling-to-bad team they are now.

 

Keith SmithNovember 22, 2023

For a year or so, the off-court priority for the NBA was on hammering out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. That’s now in the rearview mirror.

Now, the NBA’s focus has turned to negotiating new media rights deals. That’s on both a national and a local level. The national rights deals that are currently with Disney (ESPN, ABC) and Turner (TNT, NBA TV) are up after the 2024-25 season. That means negotiations are already underway, with more potential partners entering the fold when the exclusive window for Disney and Turner ends.

On the local level, Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy is impacting the regional Bally Sports networks coverage of the league. The NBA and Diamond Sports Group reached an intermediate agreement for coverage this season, but it looks like season’s games could be handled differently for roughly half of the league’s teams.

Right behind the new CBA and the new TV deal, the NBA has expansion pushing in. Gone are the days of NBA commissioner Adam Silver saying the league isn’t looking at expansion. He’s not even saying things like “We might dust that off at some point”, as Silver did during the pandemic.

Silver has said for a while that the league “could” look at expansion after the CBA negotiations and the media rights deals were complete. That’s now turned into multiple times when Silver has said the NBA “will” look into expansion after the media rights deal is complete, now that the CBA is finished.

That doesn’t mean expansion is coming in the next year or so. But NBA expansion is coming. That much is clear.

Roughly a year-and-a-half ago, we wrote it's time for the NBA to expand. Everything in that article holds up today. There is labor peace, the league is deep in talent, interest in the league is high and Seattle and Las Vegas still loom as suitors for the NBA.

With all of that said, let’s take a look at how NBA Expansion would work. This is the first in a series related to NBA Expansion that we’ll run over the next several years, until the league actually does expand. Today, we’re going to outline the timeline and the process. After that, we’ll get into the fun stuff of how an Expansion Draft actually works.

The Expansion Timeline

Whenever the NBA does decide it’s time to expand, it won’t be an overly quick process. When the original Charlotte Hornets relocated to New Orleans, it happened at the end of the 2001-2002 season. The NBA underwent an expedited process to expand and to get a team back into Charlotte as quickly as possible.

The league began taking bids almost immediately (mostly to avoid a lawsuit related to the relocation of the original Hornets), and in mid-December of 2002 they picked Robert Johnson’s bid as the winner. In January of 2003, the NBA Board of Governors approved Johnson and the new team.

In June of 2003, the team was named the Bobcats. Approximately a year later, on June 22, 2004, the 2004 Expansion Draft was held. And the team took the floor at the start of the 2004-2005 season.

That was a quicker turnround than the previous time the league had expanded. When the original Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic joined the league, there were three-year (for the Hornets and Heat) and four-year (for the Timberwolves and Magic) gaps between the league announcing expansion and the start of play.

(The NBA staggered the introduction of the four new teams to avoid diluting the state of play by bringing four new teams in all at once.)

Charlotte and Miami both started play with the 1988-89 season. Minnesota and Orlando joined the fray for the 1989-90 season.

When the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies joined the NBA, there was roughly a two-and-a-half-year gap between the start of the process and the teams starting play. The league was known to be considering expansion in late-1992. In September of 1993, they awarded Toronto a franchise. In February of 1994, Vancouver was given the second Canadian franchise. In late-June of 1995, the Raptors and Grizzlies took part in the 1995 NBA Expansion Draft. The teams then started play in the 1995-96 season.

So, let’s say the league wraps up their media rights deal as quickly as possible, and everything is set sometime in 2024. If we take Adam Silver at his word, we can expect the expansion process to start after that.

Now, let’s say the league wants to move quickly on expansion too. If we use the two-year window, that would mean the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons are played as normal. Then, with the start of the 2026-27 season, we’d likely have two new teams in place. If anything is delayed, those debuts could be pushed to the 2027-28 season or possibly even the 2028-29 season.

That means somewhere between the 2026-27 and 2028-29 seasons are the most likely seasons when we’ll see new teams join the NBA.

The Expansion Process

When the NBA decides it’s time to expand, they’ll start the process by allowing cities and ownership groups to bid for teams. Yes, we can all assume that Seattle and Las Vegas are probably the most likely cities to get teams. But that’s an assumption, and nothing more.

Several other cities will be in the mix. Adam Silver himself recently mentioned a return to Vancouver as being on the table. He said Montreal has reached out the NBA on being a potential expansion city. Silver also talked about Mexico City being an area that the league is partnering with, with the current G League team potentially being a precursor to an NBA team at some point.

Stateside, there are a lot of cities that have expressed interest in having their own NBA team. Louisville, Kansas City, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach and San Diego have all been in the mix at various points.

So, even if Seattle and Las Vegas are the heavy favorites, the NBA isn’t going to discard the other suitors. The reasons for this are two-fold.

First, by encouraging more cities to bid for teams, the cost of each expansion team will go up considerably. As of now, the league is expected to get somewhere between $3 and $4 billion for each team. And that’s being somewhat conservative in projecting how much money comes in. Considering the expansion fees go directly to the ownership groups of the existing 30 teams, they want those figures to be as high as possible.

Because of this, expect the league to entertain bids from non-Seattle and non-Las Vegas groups. But there’s a secondary motivation to that, as well.

By taking in as many bids as possible, the NBA can find out who is really serious about adding a team. For example, if a city comes in with a bid worth “only” $2 billion, they’ll be almost immediately out of the mix. Now, let’s say four cities come in with bids approaching or surpassing the $4 billion mark, now the league has options.

Even if the primary option is to initially expand to Seattle and Las Vegas, the league would have serious suitors in other cities. And it’s clear that the NBA remains committed to expanding their global reach, likely by furthering their presence in Canada first. If there are more than just Seattle and Las Vegas on the table, the NBA can push the expansion fees higher, while also keeping a couple of cities in their back pocket.

Let’s go back to when the league added the Heat, Timberwolves, Magic and original Hornets. There is some mixed reporting on whether or not the league wanted to add four team. Some say the NBA was committed to two new cities, but found two more suitable candidates that they felt they couldn’t pass up.

Could history repeat itself? It’s certainly possible. Adding roughly $16 billion in expansion fees for four teams (and, again, that’s potentially a conservative figure) would mean each of the existing 30 teams will pocket over $500 million. And that’s money that doesn’t go to the players.

The downside? The existing 30 teams would eventually have to split the hoped-for $75 billion from the media rights deal more than planned for. But $500 million goes a long way towards offsetting any potential loss in TV revenue. Agan again, that’s money straight into the owners’ pockets.

What’s Next

We’ll touch on the actual Expansion Draft process in the next installment. When the NBA is in a bit of a dead period, it’s a popular exercise to do a mock Expansion Draft. However, a lot of these are done in a somewhat sloppy way. They seem to be hit-or-miss on following the actual Expansion Draft rules and processes.

We’re going to lay out all of the rules in our next installment of the NBA Expansion Series. The goal is to make everything as understandable as possible, as well as to provide a guide for any would-be mock Expansions Drafts. We’ll also cover how the salary cap works for these teams, and what the NBA has done as far as draft picks for expansion teams, as well.

After that, we’ll explore the history of past Expansion Drafts. We’ll look at protected lists, strategies (for both incumbent and expansion teams) and the actual draft results themselves. From there, we’ll explore what teams did with their inaugural rosters, as far as trades and signing free agents.

We’ll also look at the history of how long it’s taken an expansion team to become a good team. How long before the playoffs are a reality? How long before the team won a playoff series? And when did they become a real contender?

Then, with all of rules and history behind us, we’ll start the fun process of some mock Expansion Drafts ourselves. We’ll do protected lists and draft lists (for both two- and four-team Expansion Drafts). And we’ll continually tweak and track the progress of these lists as we build toward an inevitable actual Expansion Draft.

We’re going to have some fun with this and look forward to having you join us on the ride!

 

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