Yes, it's the Winter of Ohtani (arm injury withstanding), but the MLB offseason offers plenty of other storylines worth gravitating toward in the coming weeks. Our look at a few notable headlines, with a couple of contract predictions mixed in.

The Winter of Ohtani

Where? How Big? Could it have been bigger? We’ve done plenty of work on this one for the past 18 months so let’s just summarize this time around. Baseball contracts have almost never been “conditional”. If a great player gets to the open market, there will always be at least one team willing to go above and beyond to land him. An arm injury for the 29-year-old is a major red flag, but not enough of one to reduce his value this winter. While the Giants, Cubs, Mets, etc… are all (obviously) interested, the Dodgers told us out loud that they were dialing back the 2022 offseason in order to align themselves for a move this winter. Let’s just listen to them and move on. 12 years, $504M, Dodgers.

An International Market Reset

Teams have tempered initial contracts for international players (especially pitchers) to this point. Kodai Senga (5 years, $75M) & Masataka Yoshida (5 years, $90M) are the current benchmarks in this regard. But early buzz out of front offices leads us to believe that caution will be thrown out of the window when it comes to Japanese pitching phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has now won 3 consecutive Sawamura awards (Cy Young equivalent), and just turned 25 a few months ago. Early reports have us throwing out a previous projection (based on math), and bringing Yamamoto’s new floor up to 8 years, $200M. Toss in a bidding war, and the cash in the banana stand may need to come out as well. 8 years, $240M, Mets.

A Domestic Starting Pitcher Market

NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell, NLCS starter Aaron Nola, World Series starter Jordan Montgomery, future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw plus the likes of Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, & Marcus Stroman make for a very strong class this winter. Every one of these names could (should) secure a contract averaging at or above $20M per year.

VIEW ALL STARTING PITCHER FREE AGENTS

A Questionable Positional Market

Cody Bellinger hitting the open market again this year sort of feels like Kris Bryant hitting the open market a few winters ago. Great talent, but which version of him are we supposed to believe/value/pay? Bryant scored $182M from the Rockies. The 28-year-old is a $22M player in our system, but how many years guaranteed will a team be willing to go? The Giants need a win this winter. 8 years, $190M, Giants.

Matt Chapman was an All-MLB hitter for a few months in 2023. Then he wasn’t. He’s an All-MLB defensive 3rd baseman every time he puts the uniform on. A little inconsistency never stopped MLB Free Agency from overpaying. 6 years, $124M, Cubs.

Teoscar Hernandez is an upper level MLB power hitter - just not in Seattle. The Mariners proved they agreed by not slapping a Qualifying Offer on him this week. A down year won’t stop another market from viewing Hernandez as their version of Kyle Schwarber. 5 years, $90M, Red Sox.

VIEW ALL POSITIONAL FREE AGENTS

A New Top Closer

After a rocky 2022, Hader rounded back into elite form heading toward free agency for the first time. Edwin Diaz put a new flag in the reliever market ground this winter, penning a $20.4M per year, $102M total value contract in NY. Will Hader approach or surpass these numbers? Mathematically he’s a $17.5M player in our system, but common sense and a bidding war tells us that Diaz’ number is in jeopardy here - especially when the World Champs are already calling. 5 years, $105M, Rangers.

VIEW ALL RELIEF PITCHER FREE AGENTS

From Playoffs to Purgatory

Every year, a few MLB teams sneak into the postseason, bow out, then decide to completely change course and take the next year off financially. It’s the nature of a beast that doesn’t require spending on an annual basis.

So which franchises are candidates to do so in 2024?

The Brewers seem an early favorite in the clubhouse, with a potential season-long injury to starter Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes’ name a fixture on the trade block, a manager who just left for their division rival, and a large group of core players heading into the expensive portion of their arbitration process.

Speaking of, Tampa Bay has been the model of how to win with savvy offseason moves, a revolving door at every position, incredible scouting, even better in-house development, and a bottom third payroll to boot. Is that window closing? Major injuries to the rotation, and a sure fire trade candidate in Tyler Glasnow could be a tell-tale sign that Tampa simply doesn’t have the roster to compete going forward - nor the financial backing to quickly fix it on the fly. Then again, they may just be a few creative trades away from another 90 wins next season.

VIEW 2023 MLB PAYROLLS
NOTABLE TRADE CANDIDATES

This year’s crop includes 13 first time winners two of whom were rookies (Volpe, Doyle), & another (Moreno) who was playing out his first full season. The Rangers, Blue Jays & Cubs led the way with three players each, while the Guardians, Diamondbacks, & Padres were each represented with two honors.

Pitcher

2023 was a bounceback year as a whole for Berrios, who has 5 years, $101M remaining in his contract in Toronto, but will have the chance to opt out after 3 years, $53M. Wheeler remains one of the best bang for buck free agent signings in recent baseball history, and is entering a contract year with the Phillies in 2024 (1 year, $23.5M remaining). He’s a blockbuster extension candidate this winter.

AL: Jose Berrios (TOR, $15M, 29th)
NL: Zack Wheeler (PHI, $24.5M, 8th)

Catcher

A couple of World Series catchers pick up their first Gold Gloves together this offseason with prospering financial futures ahead of them. For Heim, he’ll enter the arbitration process for the first time this winter (projected to earn $3.4M for 2024). Moreno just completed his first full season, putting him in-line for 5 more seasons of team control. He’s near the top of the early extension candidate list in the coming weeks.

AL: Jonah Heim (TEX, $745k, 44th)
NL: Gabriel Moreno (ARI, $722k, 58th)

1st Base

Lowe picks up his first Gold Glove this fall, despite a bit of a step back season at the plate. His 2nd of 4 arbitration seasons should score him a more than double raise ($8.8M) from his 2023 compensation. Walker bags his second consecutive Gold Glove in Arizona, and is entering his final year of team control in 2024 (projected $12M salary).

AL: Nate Lowe (TEX, $4M, 25th)
NL: Christian Walker (ARI, $6.5M, 16th)

2nd Base

Gimenez didn’t quite replicate the out of nowhere power season he posted in 2022, but he proved once again that there’s a legitimate bat to go with All-World middle infield defense. He’ll enter Year 2 of a 7 year, $106.5M contract next season. Hoerner signed a 3 year, $35M extension prior to the season that bought out his final two years of arbitration plus one free agent season. With a near 5 WAR to go along with Gold Glove worthy defense each of the past two seasons, he’s offering the Cubs strong value.

AL: Andres Gimenez (CLE, $5M, 14th)
NL: Nico Hoerner (CHC, $2.5M, 19th)

Shortstop

Volpe becomes the first Yankees rookie ever to win a Gold Glove, but it’s actually back to back seasons that a rookie wins the AL Shortstop honor (Jeremy Pena, HOU). Add in 23 doubles, 21 homers, and a 3.15 WAR and it’s easy to be excited about Volpe’s future in the Bronx. Swanson’s second Gold Glove caps a middle infield sweep for the Cubs (Hoerner, 2B), and it should further quiet any remaining doubters who scoffed at his 7 year, $177M free agent deal in Chicago. 

AL: Anthony Volpe (NYY, $720k, 90th)
NL: Dansby Swanson (CHC, $20M, 9th)

3rd Base

While his offensive production fell off of a cliff around midseason, Chapman continues to be touted as one of the best defensive third baseman in the game. This alone should help him secure a hefty bag on the open market this winter. Hayes  put together a career year across the board in Pittsburgh, and will enter Year 3 of an 8 year, $70M contract with the Pirates. His 2024 compensation actually drops down to $7M per season for the next 4 years, as the contract was heavily frontloaded. 

AL: Matt Chapman (TOR, $12M, 13th)
NL: Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, $10M, 15th)

Left Field

Kwan has now posted two basically identical seasons to being his MLB, at the plate, on the base paths, and with his glove. The 2-time Gold Glover still holds 4 years of team control, and is a strong early extension candidate this winter. Happ (like Nico Hoerner), signed a 3 year extension prior to the start of the season, then turned in a near career year that was capped off with a Gold Glove honor. He was a little more boom or bust at the plate this season, but should remain a fixture in the middle of the Cubs lineup at a reasonable $20M, $20M, & $18M respectively through 2026.

AL: Steven Kwan (CLE, $727k, 32nd)
NL: Ian Happ (CHC, $13.8M, 7th)

Center Field

Toronto signed Kiermaier to take the CF duties away from injury-prone George Springer. It clearly worked. It’s GG number 4 for the 33 year old, who should find a similar contract on the open market this winter. Doyle made his MLB debut in late April, and while the bat has yet to come around - he was a defensive marvel in Year 1 for the Rockies. He’s the 6th rookie outfielder to win a Gold Glove.

AL: Kevin Kiermaier (TOR, $9M, 9th)
NL: Brenton Doyle (COL, $720k, 40th)

Right Field

Garcia’s power wasn’t just a problem for opposing teams at the plate. His cannon arm led to 11 outfield assists in 2023, factoring into quite a resume for his first go around at arbitration this winter. He projects to a near $6M salary for 2024. Tatis Jr. appears to be the type of player who can play anywhere on the field, and his first season in Right Field is just another example. He’ll earn $11M next season on what should have been his final go around in arbitration (strong value), then it’s 10 years, $306M from there out.

AL: Adolis Garcia (TEX, $747k, 32nd)
NL: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD, $5.6M, 22nd)

Utility

Dubon put it all together this year, making an impact at the plate (130 hits, 26 doubles, 2.7 WAR), while saving runs at nearly every defensive position on the field for Houston. He enters Year 2 of 4 arbitration seasons this spring, projected to earn around $3M for his efforts. Kim was a do-it-all infielder for San Diego, making most of his impact as a second baseman in 2023. He also bagged a career high 17 HRs at the plate, compiling an outstanding 5.76 WAR for the season. He’ll earn $7M in 2024, with a mutual opt-out available thereafter.

AL: Mauricio Dubon (HOU, $1.4M)
NL: Ha-seong Kim (SD, $7M)

The 2023 NFL Trade Deadline didn't quite meet the "rumored" expectations, but when has an NFL Trade Deadline ever? With that said, plenty of notable names were on the move this past week. Spotrac details every player that has been traded during the 2023 season, including financial ramifications and future thoughts for each.

Rasul Douglas (CB, 29)

Buffalo Acquires: Douglas & a 2024 5th round pick
Green Bay Acquires: 2024 3rd round pick

Douglas joins a DB needy Bills organization, due in large part to a season-ending Achilles injury to Tre'Davious White. He’ll account for just $838,235 of cap/cash this year, with a $9M veritable “option” in place for 2024. There’s a $2M roster bonus due March 15th, so Buffalo will need to make an early decision on his future. Green Bay clears $6.5M of 2024 cap space per this move.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, 24)

Detroit Acquires: Peoples-Jones
Cleveland Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

DPJ caught 59 passes for nearly 800 yards in 2022, and seemed to be a clear #2 option for Cleveland going forward. Instead, he was written almost entirely out of the offense this season, making the change of scenery to an explosive Detroit unit exciting for all parties. The Browns get out of more than $1.5M from his expiring contract, while the Lions now carry 5 very capable receivers at a combined $11M. Peoples-Jones is a $4M per year WR in our system right now.

Chase Young (DE, 24)

San Francisco Acquires: Young
Washington Acquires: 2024 3rd Round Pick (compensatory)

The Commanders declined Young’s $17.4M 5th-year option last May, putting him on an expiring contract in 2023. San Francisco snags him with $2.95M left the rest of the way, giving up a late 3rd round pick. A franchise tag for Young next March is likely to come in at over $22M, putting him in position to hit the open market. If he signs elsewhere, the Niners should recoup a 3rd round pick in the compensatory program, making this a veritable cash trade. Missed time and a lack of consistent production holds his current valuation at around the $13M per year mark.

Ezra Cleveland (G, 25)

Jacksonville Acquires: Cleveland
Minnesota Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

The Vikings weren’t expected to re-sign Cleveland next March, so grabbing a little draft capital now made some sense. He started 6 games for the VIkings this year (47 in 3 ½ seasons), so this is more than just a “depth” addition for the Jags, who are looking to make a serious push in the AFC. Jacksonville picks up Cleveland at $1.6M for the rest of 2023, who, as a versatile lineman, could be seeking a deal around $10M per year in free agency.

Joshua Dobbs (QB, 28)

Minnesota Acquires: Dobbs, 2024 7th round pick
Arizona Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

Dobbs played the good soldier role in Arizona for 8 weeks, and now is being asked to do so for some of the remaining 10 in Minnesota. The Vikings pick up a competent QB1 at just $833,333 to finish out the season. Can the pending UFA now turn this type of attention into a Taylor Heinicke type deal?

Montez Sweat (DE, 27)

Chicago Acquires: Sweat
Washington Acquires: 2024 2nd round pick

Sweat leaves a crowded Commanders D-Line to join Chicago as a much needed presence on theirs. It remains to be seen if an extension has been discussed as part of this deal, as a 2nd round pick for a rental player is a steep price to pay (even for the Bears). Sweat brings $6.3M of his 5th-year option salary along with him to Chicago, who can tag the 27 year old at around $22M next year to keep him in the fold. He projects to a 4 year, $102M extension in our system right now.

Leonard Williams (DE, 29)

Seattle Acquires: Williams
New York Acquires: 2024 2nd round pick, 2025 5th round pick

Williams was a trade candidate for much of last offseason, so it comes as little surprise that the D-Lineman was shipped out of NY as their season spiraled. He brings an expiring contract, on a prorated minimum salary ($647,222), as the Giants agreed to pay down the remainder of his $18M base salary for 2023. Williams will account for $10.6M on the Giants’ salary cap next season, and he projects to a 3 year, $45M contract in our system.

Kentavius Street (DE, 27)

Atlanta Acquires: Street, 2025 7th round pick
Philadelphia Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

A depth player for the Eagles, Street should have an opportunity to start on the Falcons’ defensive line from here out. The former 4th round pick brings a prorated minimum salary ($600,000) to Atlanta, so it’s low risk for everyone here.

Kevin Byard (S, 30)

Philadelphia Acquires: Byard
Tennessee Acquires: Terrell Edmunds (S), 2024 5th round pick, 2024 6th round pick

The Eagles wasted no time bolstering their Super Bowl contending roster, adding Byard to upgrade their secondary. Tennessee paid down his $11M to $2.4M for the Eagles to deal with, and Philly converted $888k of it into signing bonus to further help their salary cap table this season. None of Byard’s $14.1M in 2024 is guaranteed right now, though a $4M roster bonus is due in March. If he’s a fit for the Eagles, a restructured contract will most certainly be on the books before that bonus hits.

Mecole Hardman (WR/KR, 25)

Kansas City Acquires: Hardman, 2025 7th round pick
New York Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

Hardman returns home, hoping to add a spark to the Chiefs offense and return game for the final 10 weeks of the season. He brings a $1.4M cap hit the rest of the way that includes a $500,000 likely to be earned incentive (that is likely to be credited back in 2024).

Van Jefferson (WR, 27)

Atlanta Acquires: Jefferson, 2025 7th round pick
Los Angeles Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

The Rams couldn’t figure out a way to get Jefferson going in 3+ seasons, so Atlanta takes a later round swap flier on attempting to do just that down the stretch. At $993,174 the rest of the way, this is a small risk move on a player that has the ceiling to become Drake London’s WR2 with the right QB1. He’s a Parris Campbell (1 year, $4M) contract candidate next March for now.

Randy Gregory (LB, 30)

San Francisco Acquires: Gregory, 2024 7th round pick
Denver Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

Gregory forced his way out of Denver after 6 2022 games, & 7 2023 games. The Broncos wind up paying him out $26.3M for those efforts, sending him to San Francisco at just $840,000 for the remainder of the season. The remaining 3 years, $42M of this contract are pay-as-you-go, so the Niners will have the ability to move on next March at no cap cost to them.

Chase Claypool (WR, 25)

Miami Acquires: Claypool, 2025 7th round pick
Chicago Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

To say that acquiring Claypool for the #32 overall pick last year didn’t work out for Chicago is one of the bigger understatements of the year. In fact, getting any kind of return for him this past month seems like a small win for the Bears (who need any they can get right now). Miami acquires the former #49 overall pick at $2.3M remaining in the final year of his rookie contract. He’s a minimum contract player from here out right now.

J.C. Jackson (CB, 27)

New England Acquires: Jackson, 2025 7th round pick
Los Angeles Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

Jackson was the free agent breadwinner 18 months ago, signing a 5 year, $82.5M contract with the Chargers that included $40M guaranteed. LA agreed to pay off the remainder of Jackson’s 2023 salary per this trade, meaning a total of $38.4M shelled out for 7 games of action. The Patriots essentially take on a 1 year, $1.55M contract now, as the remaining 3 years, $42.5M is pay-as-you-go, and New England can walk away next March at no cap charge.

Cam Akers (RB, 24)

Minnesota Acquires: Akers, 2026 7th round pick
Los Angeles Acquires: 2026 6th round pick

The Vikings were hoping Alexander Mattison would run away with the leading role in 2023, but early returns said otherwise. Akers isn’t consistent, but he’s proven he can lead an offense at times when the situation fits. The former 2nd round pick is on an expiring contract, accounting for $1.3M of salary in Minnesota the rest of this season. Furthermore, Akers is scheduled for restricted free agency next March, as he was unable to accrue the necessary 6 games back in 2021 to accrue a full season. He’ll be cost-controlled for Minnesota for a full 18 months if they choose to keep him in the fold.

The Arizona Diamondbacks' 4-2 win over the Phillies last night secured their World Series ticket, setting up a preseason betting odds dream matchup with the Rangers. We'll take a closer look at the financials of our 2023 matchup, then take a quick ride through the financial matchups in each of the last 10 World Series.

2023

Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Rangers bring the 4th highest payroll ($251M) into this year’s Fall Classic, including a $510M middle infield in Corey Seager & Marcus Semien. Texas also compiled the 3rd most Injured List money in 2023, thanks in large part to Jacob deGrom’s arm injury. The Rangers pumped $828M into their past two free agencies.

Texas carried a $55M active starting rotation this season (not including the likes of Scherzer, deGrom, Gray, & Odorizzi due to injury), & a bullpen that relied heavily on Jose Leclerc & WIll Smith’s combined $10M. The Rangers’ 5-man outfield rotation accounted for only $4.8M this season.

Arizona becomes the latest inexpensive team to get to the finish line, carrying the 21st highest payroll in 2023 ($119M). Only 1 player (Ketel Marte) carried a 2023 salary larger than $10M, while 57% of the roster was comprised of players in pre-arbitration status. Young phenom Corbin Carroll already has his early extension (8 years, $111M through 2030), while it seems only a matter of time before Gabriel Moreno & Christian Walker (to name a few) get theirs.

The Diamondbacks have value all over their roster, including a $15M starting rotation (Gallen, Kelly, Nelson, Pfaadt), a closer (Sewald) they acquired at the deadline at a $1.3M salary, and a starting outfield of Carroll, Pham, & Thomas that accounted for just $3.8M on their books this season.

From a Starting 9 standpoint, the Rangers are poised to throw out a 1-9 that combined for $72.4M this season (85% of which belongs to Seager & Semien). Arizona's projected 1-9 accounted for just $34.2M this season.

2022

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Houston’s #8 ranked payroll ($183M) defeated Philadelphia’s 4th ranked payroll ($244M) 4 games to 2. Philly snuck into the World Series through the back of the bracket, but their roster held no surprises on the books. Massive deals for Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, & Kyle Schwarber became worth every penny down the stretch. Houston, meanwhile, actually shedding a few financial pounds in 2022, with Carlos Correa & Greinke coming off the books for starters.

2021

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros

The #10 payroll Braves ($152M) defeated Houston’s 5th ranked payroll ($194M) 4 games to 2. Freddie Freeman’s final hurrah in Atlanta was a storybook finish, while this young Braves group (Acuna, Albies, Riley) was about to be paid handsomely. Houston now had big deals for Jose Altuve & Zack Greinke on their books, putting them near the $200M mark for their first time.

2020

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The #1 payroll Dodgers ($125M) defeated Tampa’s incredible #28 ranked payroll ($28M) 4 games to 2. The biggest financial gap on our books saw the Rays bring a roster that contained only 1 player (Charlie Morton, $5.5M) with a salary north of $5M. Still, this young and feisty group couldn’t grasp control of a series against a Dodgers group that was worth $100M more, due in large part to the acquisition of Mookie Betts before the season.

2019

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros

The #7 payroll Nationals ($172M) defeated the 8th ranked payroll Astros ($167M) 4 games to 3. While Washington’s win was a huge surprise, they didn’t come out of nowhere financially speaking, with large deals for Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, & Ryan Zimmerman all on the books. Strasburg would opt-out, and re-up into what has been a mess of a situation for the Nationals ever since. New deals for Justin Verlander & Michael Brantley, plus increased arbitration salaries for Gerrit Cole & George Springer finally vaulted Houston into Top 10 status.

2018

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The #1 payroll Red Sox ($227M) defeated the 3rd ranked payroll Dodgers ($199M) 4 games to 1. This was the highest combined World Series matchup we have on the books, as Boston was carrying sizable contracts for David Price, JD Martinez, and Rick Porcello, while LA were amidst $400M worth of contracts for Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp still.

2017

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The #17 payroll Astros ($138M) defeated the 1st ranked payroll Dodgers ($259M) 4 games to 3. This was the official breakout season of the Astros as we still know them, including the acquisition of Justin Verlander at the August waiver deadline. The Dodgers squandered a “super-team” from a payroll perspective, carrying 7 players with a salary north of $10M this season. 

2016

Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians

The #5 payroll Cubs ($184M) defeated the 18th ranked payroll Indians ($106M) 4 games to 3. Chicago was bolstered by an expensive starting rotation (Lester, Lackey, Arrieta, Hammel), and a savvy deadline acquisition to the back of their bullpen in Aroldis Chapman. Cleveland was playing on house money with pre-arbitration salaries for the likes of Jose Ramirez & Francisco Lindor. Ramirez would sign his first extension the following March

2015

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets

The #13 payroll Royals ($126M) defeated the 18th ranked payroll Mets ($115M) 4 games to 1. The matchup featured only 1 player on the books at $20M+ (David Wright), and only 4 at $10M+ (Alex Gordon, Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon). Kansas City was a .500 team a year later, and have been well under that mark ever since.

Taking the Pulse on Massive QB Contracts

The NFL is as much a “quarterback league” as it's ever been, but while players continue to lock into massive contracts every spring and summer, that doesn’t always necessarily translate to immediate (or sustainable) success on the field. Our snapshot look at the 12 largest QB contracts currently on the books, how they fare in terms of future stability, and their respective team’s outlook for 2023.

Patrick Mahomes

The current MVP favorite (+260) agreed to a restructure to his massive contract this September that moved up around $44M of cash into the next few seasons. All $44.5M of his 2024 compensation + $32.35M from 2025 is currently fully guaranteed, and everyone is just fine with that. The Chiefs enter Week 8 as the AFC #1 Seed.

Joe Burrow

Signed a 5 year, $275M extension in September that carries $146.5M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers for 2026 & 2027 that all but lock in $219M. Health tempered the start to his 2023 season, but he looked as good as ever in Week 6. Despite that, Cincy’s playoff chances hover around 30%, as they find themselves “on the bubble” behind Houston & the Jets (if you can believe it).

Justin Herbert

Signed a 5 year, $262.5M extension in July that carries $133.7M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers in 2026, 2027, & 2028 that lock in over $218M. The 2-4 Chargers are sliding down the standings this season, and could be staring down yet another coach/strategy change with Herbert under center. LAC carries a less than 10% chance to make the postseason, currently ranked 14th in the AFC (ahead of only the Patriots and Broncos).

Lamar Jackson

Lamar’s 5 year, $260M contract looks about as good as any out there right now, as the 26 year old has been as advertised through 7 weeks. He’s mostly guaranteed through 2025 right now, with all of $208M through 2026 guaranteeing early over the next few Marches. Baltimore is a Top 5 playoff team heading into Week 8, currently sitting as the #3 seed in the AFC.

Josh Allen

Allen’s 8 year, $284.5M total value contract still seems like a steal for Buffalo, all things considered. He’s fully guaranteed through 2024 & ½ guaranteed through 2025 at $55M right now, with another $10M set to lock in next March. The Bills could potentially consider options on this contract after the 2025 season however. Buffalo’s playoff chances slipped into the 50s with a Week 7 loss in NE, and they hold the 2nd hardest schedule the rest of the way.

Jalen Hurts

It’s good to be in Philly. Hurts’ new deal holds full guarantees through 2026 out of the gate, with nearly $180M practically locked in through 2027. The Eagles now hold the top NFC spot heading toward Week 8, and Hurts is a Top 3 MVP candidate.

Russell Wilson

Just a reminder that Russ could be earning $27M on an expiring contract from Denver this season. Instead, it’s $28M, with $39M more fully guaranteed through 2024, and another $37M set to lock in March 17th. It’s been a much better 2023 than 2022 for Wilson, and he’s hardly Denver’s biggest problem, but money talks loudest. The Broncos sit in the cellar of the AFC currently.

Kyler Murray

Still rehabbing his 2022 knee injury, Murray seems to be in line to return to his starting gig for the foreseeable future. He’s already fully guaranteed through 2024 at $35M, and there are early vesting triggers on every salary and roster bonus through 2027 thereafter. If Murray doesn’t return to form, this contract is going to be a problem for a while. Arizona currently resides at 15th in the NFC, with only 0-6 Carolina in a worse spot.

Deshaun Watson

The real reason we’re having this conversation, as Watson’s injury and overall lackluster play as a whole seems to be nearing surface. This contract remains “in a room over there” when attempting to compare it to anything else, because of the gravity of the deal in combination with how it came to fruition in the first place. But it’s here, it’s real, and it’s spectacular, so it’s important to dissect it whenever necessary. As the season turns to Week 8, this contract holds $138.66M remaining on it - fully guaranteed. Any thoughts of a trade after 2023 must include $62.9M of dead cap for Cleveland, and $138M fully guaranteed transferring to the new team. It’s wild stuff.

Daniel Jones

Jones’ 4 year, $160M contract was always going to be a 2 year, $82M contract until it wasn’t. His $36M salary for 2024 is already fully guaranteed, and everything thereafter is in a pay-as-you-go structure. The Giants are now 13th in the NFC, and trending toward a last place finish in the NFC East.

Matthew Stafford

Fully guaranteed through 2024 at $31M, another $10M from 2025 locks in next March. This situation has calmed down nicely. There’s a pretty real world where the Rams buyout that $10M and move on before 2025, especially with Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp (and likely Sean McVay) all very questionable to be in the mix at that stage. The Rams find themselves just outside the playoff picture heading toward Week 8, with the 16th toughest schedule the rest of the way.

Dak Prescott

Dak has a $5M roster bonus due March 17th, but that’s somewhat inconsequential to the greater story here. Will Prescott get the 2023 Kirk Cousins treatment (no extension, convert salary/roster bonus into signing bonus to lower the cap hit, but keep him on expiring contract), or will Dallas give Dak the 2018-22 Kirk Cousins treatment (small, guaranteed extension to lower the current cap without taking on too much weight down the road). It’s a pretty big 11 weeks in Dallas, who remain in the playoff picture (#6 in the NFC), but also hold the 8th hardest schedule down the stretch.

The NFL Trade Deadline is less than two weeks away, with the window to move player set to close at 4PM ET, Halloween day. We’ll dive into a few names rumored to be on the trade block this month, including the financial ramifications associated with a move.

QUARTERBACKS

Not much to see here honestly (as per usual with starting QBs at the trade deadline). Minnesota will need to bottom out and be blown away by an offer to honestly consider moving Cousins, and Tennessee would need to pay down most of Tannehill’s remaining $15M to even begin to get sniffs. If you told me a few experienced backups (Jameis Winston, Mason Rudolph) found a new home by November, that wouldn’t be too surprising.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)

Minnesota converted $20M of Cousins’ 2023 compensation into signing bonus prior to the season, leaving just a $10M base salary to operate with. They’ll be $5.5M of it remaining at the deadline should he truly hit the block. He projects to a 3 year, $117M contract in our system currently.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)

Tannehill’s QB Rating is at a career low 71 entering Week 7, and an ankle injury, plus a $15M deadline salary could be far too much for another team to swallow, even if just as a rental.

RUNNING BACKS

Kind of get the feeling this list is going to grow significantly as we get closer to Halloween, but for now, these players at least have a legitimate reason to be on the trade block. 

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

The 29 year old is in a contract year in Tennessee, who have begun to sell off pieces at this deadline. The productive as ever running back carries a $5.8M deadline salary.

Rashaad Penny (RB, PHI)

Penny finds himself 4th on the Philly depth chart heading toward the deadline, but a $670,000 deadline salary could make him attractive to teams in need.

Dalvin Cook (RB, NYJ)

It’s been weird right? Cook was always going to be insurance for Breece Hall, but at this stage it just seems like he’s an extra body in the room. He’ll carry about $3.6M remaining on his 1 year contract at the deadline, including per-game active bonuses.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB, TB)

Fournette leaving was supposed to vault Vaughn into a big role for Tampa, but it’s been much of the same for the former #76 pick. A change of scenery to finish off his rookie contract ($672,770 deadline salary) seems a good fit here.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)

Last year’s breakout star is now averaging only 3 yards per rushing attempt, and is on pace to catch 20 less balls than he did in 2022. Is it a back to earth situation? Is he missing the viable 1-2 punch that Damien Harris afforded him? Stevenson holds $522,222 at the deadline, with a non-guaranteed $1,055,000 available in 2024.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

CEH’s usage has been much better to start 2023 than it has been in recent years (likely to account for Jerick McKinnon’s disappearing act thus far). Has he proved himself to be a viable weapon for this KC team down the stretch? The final year of his rookie contract holds a $1,103,150 salary at this year’s deadline.

WIDE RECEIVERS

This list is loaded with talented WRs who, for the most part, are either stuck on bad rosters, or buried in a depth chart right now. Feels like at least three of these will be changing cities in the next two weeks.

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Sutton was rumored to be in trade talks prior to the season, so it only makes sense to include him here now with the Denver situation not much improved. He’s in Year 3 of a 5 year, $62M contract, including an $8,042,476 salary for the remainder of 2023. None of the 2 years, $27.5M remaining thereafter comes with an early guarantee.

Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)

Jeudy posted career numbers in 2022, but he’s done little to hold up his end of the #15 overall draft selection. It didn’t stop Denver from exercising his 5th-year-option for 2024, meaning a trade at the deadline would send along $1,489,871 guaranteed for the rest of 2023, & $12,987,000 fully guaranteed in 2024.

Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)

Hollywood is having his healthiest and most productive season in a few years right now, despite a makeshift offense being thrown together in Arizona. There’s a world where he’s a part of their future, and this is an extension conversation instead of a trade one. But if not, paying down some of the $7,451,666 remaining on this deal to acquire a strong draft pick makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals.

Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)

On paper, Thielen penned a 3 year, $25M free agent contract with Carolina this past March, but from a guarantee standpoint it’s essentially a 1 year, $14.5M deal. An acquiring team would take on around $900,000 for this season, with a $4M guarantee built into his 2024 compensation. Doable, but not likely?

K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN)

Justin Jefferson’s injury might make this a less viable move for Minnesota, but Osborn is playing out the final year of his rookie contract, and his $1.5M deadline salary could be attractive to a contender in need.

Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)

He’s just a year and a half removed from a 103 catch, 9 TD season for the Raiders, but has fallen completely out of favor in terms of targets & subsequent production. There’s about $3.9M left on his 2023 compensation when you factor in per-game-active bonuses, so Las Vegas might benefit from paying that down a bit to secure a larger draft pick in return. None of Renfrow’s $11.8M for 2024 contains an early guarantee.

Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE)

He’s on pace for a career high in targets & receptions, so the Patriots have at least made a bigger attempt to incorporate his services this year. A $3M deadline salary may be too rich for some teams, but it’s possible New England can flip Bourne in the coming days.

Parris Campbell (WR, NYG)

The Giants took a flier on the former 2nd rounder with an incentive-laden showcase deal, but honestly, it’s tough to imagine a team taking on the $1.9M cap hit to acquire the 26-year-old at this deadline.

Terrace Marshall (WR, CAR)

Carolina drafted Marshall #59 overall back in 2021 but have received little to no return on investment since then. A change of scenery makes sense here for Marshall, who carries a $614,367 deadline salary for the rest of 2023, then a non-guaranteed $1,441,294 in 2024.

Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL)

Duvernay still holds plenty of value as the leading return man in Baltimore, but his targets as a receiver have almost completely gone by the wayside. With a $2.4M deadline salary, it seems most likely that he remains with the Ravens to complete his rookie contract.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE)

DPJ took a nice step forward in 2022, posting career highs across the board and making him one of the more notable “breakout” candidates for 2023. It hasn’t worked out that way, leaving an underutilized 24-year-old WR on an expiring contract seeking a bigger role elsewhere. His $1.5M deadline salary shouldn’t be too daunting to move this month.

TIGHT ENDS

Not much to write home about here, and New England moving on from Henry is probably a long shot, but Ertz latching on to a contender to (likely) finish off his career should be considered a must move.

Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)

Ertz is in Year 2 of a 3 year, $31.5M contract in Arizona, but none of his $10M for 2024 is guaranteed right now. Barring any retained salary from the Cardinals, an acquiring team would take on $5.1M to bring in Ertz at the deadline.

Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

If the Patriots truly decide to rip the band-aid off on their expiring contracts, Henry could very much be in demand. A $5.8M deadline salary could be too rich for many, but New England may be willing to help lower that number a bit to get something done.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

Bolles is a viable starting tackle, but he’s been publicly calling out the coaching staff in Denver of late. That’s generally a sign that the relationship isn’t going to continue much longer. Cleveland & Onwenu are on expiring contracts and could return mid-to-late draft picks before they hit the open market.

Garett Bolles (OL, DEN)

Bolles is in Year 4 of a 5 year, $70M contract, but none of his $16M set in 2024 is guaranteed right now. An acquiring team would be looking at $8.6M for the rest of 2023, making this one a tough sell for Denver.

Ezra Cleveland (OL, MIN)

Cleveland currently sits as a Top 10 rated Guard according to PFF, so it’s not crazy to think that Minnesota could be considering an extension out of his expiring rookie contract instead of a trade, but it seems like everyone might be on the table for the Vikings this week in some capacity. Cleveland carries a $1.6M deadline salary.

Mike Onwenu (OL, NE)

Onwenu had a strong start to his career in New England, but appears to be sliding in terms of future with the organization. He carries a $1.6M deadline salary in the final year of his rookie contract.

DEFENDERS

Honestly, there’s a lot more smoke than fire here with many of these names, but it stands to reason that a player or two on an expiring contract should be flipped for a draft asset. 

Brian Burns (DE, CAR)

If news breaks that Brian Burns has been traded this month, be prepared for a trade compensation package that comes with shock and awe, because that seems to be the only way Carolina gives up on this relationship midseason. Burns is playing out his $16M 5th-year-option in 2023, with free agency or a franchise tag ahead of him next March. His deadline salary comes in just under $8.9M.

Chase Young (DE, WAS)

After Washington declined Young’s 5th-year-option for 2024, it seemed the writing was on the wall for his future with the Commanders. But he’s played well to start the 2023 campaign, making a deadline trade less likely than originally thought. His $2.95M deadline salary will certainly attract some attention either way.

Carl Lawson (DE, NYJ)

Lawson missed all of 2021, but then posted 7 sacks in 2022 to resurrect his tenure with the Jets. A slow start to 2023, plus an extremely tradable $600,000 deadline salary makes this one of the more likely moves.

Julian Okwara (LB, DET)

The former 3rd rounder finds himself buried in the Lions depth chart right now as he returns from an early season knee injury. Now on an expiring rookie contract, look for Detroit to seek a late round draft pick in exchange for his friendly $712,475 deadline salary.

Danielle Hunter (LB, MIN)

Hunter seems to find his name on every trade list, and maybe rightfully so (8 sacks, 32 tackles, 1 forced fumble, in 350 snaps). But his $6.3M deadline salary (including per game active bonuses) is a bigger number than we’re used to seeing move midseason. Will Minnesota pay it down a bit to make him an easier acquisition?

Preston Smith (LB, GB)

Smith just locked in a 4 year extension in March of 2022, but it feels like the Packers could be reshuffling quite a few roster spots in the coming months - especially if they fall out of contention in 2023. Smith is a get to the quarterback player with a $965,000 deadline salary (and no guarantees on his future $39.9M). Somebody’s calling.

Jerry Hughes (LB, HOU)

Hughes was a big part of a transitioning Houston team in 2022, but his role has reduced now that many young players are starting to flourish in starting positions. There’s plenty reason for the Texans to keep him around for the rest of 2023, but if he seeks a larger role elsewhere, his $1.26M deadline salary isn’t too daunting.

Jaylon Johnson (CB, CHI)

I’m on record stating that the Bears need to be thinking core players, not flashy weapons, so I’m in what appears to be a minority that feels as though the Bears should be looking to lock in their talented CB on an expiring contract. But if the trade compensation is too good to pass up, the acquiring team can have him at $1.6M for the rest of the season.

Adoree' Jackson (CB, NYG)

It feels like the Giants are nearing sell-mode, and Jackson’s expiring contract would certainly qualify as a candidate for that. It’s a $6.6M investment to take on the former #18 overall pick for the rest of 2023.

Kaiir Elam (CB, BUF)

To say that Elam and the Bills haven’t been a match made in heaven since he was selected #23 overall back in 2022 is an understatement. Sure it’s still early, and yes he’s only 22 years old, but the BIlls aren’t in a window to wait around for anybody - and Tre’Davious White’s potential career-ending injury expedited a need to get bigger and better at this position. A move at the deadline comes with $737,394 for the rest of 2023, $1,949,619 in 2024, & $2,571,929 - all fully guaranteed.

Harrison Smith (S, MIN)

Toss 11-year vet Smith into the “if the Vikings fire sell” bucket. The 34-year-old is under contract through 2025, but the next two seasons are “fluffy” in terms of guarantee. For all intents and purposes, this is a 1 year, $4.4M rental.

Xavier McKinney (S, NYG)

A healthy McKinney is an above average safety in this league, and that’s exactly what he’s been in 2023. The former #36 overall pick is on an expiring rookie contract, holding a $974,574 salary at the deadline. NY should be extending him, not shopping him.

The New York Mets' historic payroll and seemingly immediate collapse in 2023 has quickly turned Pete Alonso’s future with the organization into a bit of a soap opera. The 28-year-old first baseman will be entering his third and final arbitration year in 2024, putting the onus on the franchise to pay, trade, & deal with another Scott Boras client heading into the open market.

We’ll assess option number 1 here, projecting the current value of a long-term extension for Pete Alonso and the New York Mets this winter.

Alonso’s Resume

Pete Alonso enters the final stretch toward free agency as a 3X All Star, Rookie of the Year, with two seasons (2019, & 2022) where he was one of the best power hitters in all of baseball. He carries an .870 career OPS, averaging 25 doubles, 41 homers, and 155 games played over the past 3 seasons. 6.6% of the time he’s come to bat in 5 seasons, he’s hit a home run. The league average over that span is 3.3%. Defensively, Alonso carries a .992 career fielding percentage, compiling only 39 errors in 621 games as an everyday first baseman.

The Next Judge Contract, Right?

Not so fast. It’s easy to get caught in the “next-man-up” mentality when it comes to elite sports contracts (mostly because many leagues are operating this way), but the numbers tell a very different story here.

When we (at Spotrac) evaluate players for an extension or free agent contract, we focus solely on a player’s previous two seasons of production. 

If we place Alonso’s last two seasons of work up against 4 recently signed contracts, we find a lot of comparable production - with the exception of Aaron Judge. Judge’s 2021-2022 output was simply unmatched, with Shohei Ohtani as the only player who can even hold a candle to the type of numbers you’re seeing here.

Is there a logical argument for Alonso to seek Aaron Judge’s $40M per year simply based on intangible value? Maybe. But the math certainly says otherwise.

So where does Pete’s value actually fall into place?

The Average Annual Value

Unfortunately, this metric still drives much of MLB, as it (usually) equates to the luxury tax salary associated with a contract. Right now, baseball has 10 position players operating at $30M or more on average, with Aaron Judge’s $40M the leader in the clubhouse. Just based on the eye test alone, we can assume Alsono will fit somewhere among this group.

Top 10 Average Annual Salaries (Position Players)

1. Aaron Judge, $40M
2. Mike Trout, $35.5M
3. Anthony Rendon, $35M
4. Francisco Lindor, $34.1M
5. Carlos Correa, $33.3M
6. Nolan Arenado, $32.5M
7. Corey Seager, $32.5M
8. Manny Machado, $31.8M
9. Rafael Devers, $31.3M
10. Mookie Betts, $30.4M

VIEW ALL

Utilizing the statistical comparison above, Alonso is producing about 4% lower than our four comparables, who carry a collectively combined AAV of $34.4M. This brings us to a $33M average salary for Alonso.

The Contract Length

Our contract length projections are determined based on the player’s age, versus the length/age of the four players he’s being compared to in our exercise. A few quick calculations brings us to a 9 year contract for Alonso, or an 8 year extension plus his final arbitration salary (something the Mets have been known to do in order to keep the Year 1 tax salary a little lighter on the books).

A 9 year contract will bring Alonso through his age 37 season, two years earlier than the Aaron Judge deal, which runs through his age 39 season. Could Pete squeeze another year or two out of the Mets here? Probably. Would teams like the Cubs and Giants tack on 1-2 years in a free agent offer next winter? Absolutely.

It should also be noted that Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor’s contract also runs through his age 37 season (2031).

The First Baseman Effect

Our math is telling us that Alonso should secure a 9 year, $297M contract extension this winter. Let’s round that up to $300M for good measure (it’s not our money).

Francisco Lindor signed a 10 year, $341M contract as a post arbitration extension (he played out his final year of arbitration before this deal kicked in). Lindor was one year younger when he penned this contract, so adjusting for that calculates to 9 years, $307Mt. In other words, these predicted numbers for Alonso appear to be in the ballpark from a Mets standpoint. But what about from a First Baseman standpoint?

Alonso projects to a near $22M salary for the upcoming 2024 season (based on arbitration calculations). Matt Olson (who just completed one of the most productive seasons a 1st Baseman has posted in years), will be playing on $22M a year for the next 6 seasons in Atlanta.

Freddie Freeman, a perennial MVP candidate, operated at $21M per year through his first five free agent seasons, then upped it to $27M per year for his next six.

Paul Goldschmidt, a 7X All star, 5X Silver Slugger, 4X Gold Glover, 1X MVP, took two years of free agency at $13M per year, then doubled it to $26M for his next 5 seasons.

These are the top numbers being handed out to the most productive First Basemen in baseball. If I told you that $27M per year is the current high AAV, is Alonso’s $33M projection now crazy? In this arena, the logical “next man up” mantra could be levied at $28M per year, or a 9 year, $250M+ extension.

It should also be noted that when comparing Alonso to these upper echelon first baseman from a more advanced standpoint (WOBP, WRC+, ISO, etc…), Alonso more or less sits in the middle of the pack.

Advanced Batting 1B Comparisons

So while math places Alonso with the Lindors, Devers, & to some degree Judges of the world from a productivity standpoint, MLB front offices are still “devaluing” contracts based on position. While shortstops & third basemen still have no trouble resetting their market on an annual basis, many of the other positions have settled into “value” lanes.

Predicted Outcome

Can Alonso buck this trend and separate himself from these mid-20 numbers, or will he need to conform with the positional lines and accept a deal that would be considered far below his expected value? Conventional 1st Base thinking says he plays out his $22M salary for 2024, then takes on another 8 years, $225M for the remainder of his career.

We’ll follow the breadcrumbs in Queens and predict a larger than normal number, where the Mets buy out his final year of arbitration, converting that price tag into a signing bonus, finalizing a total contract at $30M per year.

9 years, $270M from 2024-2032, including a $22M signing bonus

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Mark Melancon (ARI, RP, 39)
$5M Mutual Option ($2M buyout)

Melancon signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with Arizona after leading the league with 39 saves in 2021. He disappointed in 2022, missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury and now enters his age 39 season. The Dbacks are likely to decline their half of the mutual option despite a considerable buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction:  ARI declines their end of mutual option, pays $2m buyout

Miguel Castro (ARI, RP, 29)
$5M Vesting Option

Despite an inconsistent season, Castro surpassed the 60 appearances needed to trigger a $5m Vesting option for 2024. He led all NL relievers with 75 games, finishing 21 of those. The option would have converted to a $6m Player option with 40 games finished.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.7M
Result:  2024 contract guaranteed at $5M

ATLANTA BRAVES

Charlie Morton (ATL, SP, 40)
$20M Club Option (no buyout)

Morton returned to Atlanta on a 1 year, $20m contract with a matching $20m Club option for 2024. Again he provided stability as the Braves mid rotation anchor, starting 30+ games for the 3rd straight season. I doubt this is a piece they want to remove amidst their World Series contention window so this one should be pretty straight forward. If the 40-year-old confirms he wants to return for a 17th season, the Braves are almost certain to exercise the option.  The price tag might feel uncomfortable but it’s in line with our system projections and similar options would likely require multi-year commitments.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.7M
Prediction:  ATL exercises the $20M option

Eddie Rosario (ATL, OF, 32)
$9M Club Option (no buyout)

Rosario was a key addition that helped fuel the Braves 2021 World Series run. He tested free agency but ultimately re-signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with a 2024 Club option at the same $9m AAV. Since that deal, Atlanta has made major commitments to Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris III and Sean Murphy. Most of their offensive core signed to multi-year deals which leaves limited room for offseason improvement on that side of the ball. To be clear, this is a great problem to have - but probably not for Rosario. Id’ be surprised if Atlanta, a team straddling the Luxury Tax threshold, chooses to dedicate $9m towards a platoon corner OF.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.4M
Prediction:  ATL declines the $9M club option

Brad Hand (ATL, RP, 34)
$7M Mutual Option ($500,000 buyout)

Hand signed a one year deal with Colorado that included a 2024 Club option. The option could become Mutual if he was traded or finished 25 games. While he fell short on games (15), Hand still earned some leverage with the midseason trade to Atlanta. Ultimately, we doubt it matters. He’s not a traditional closer at this stage of his career and the Braves could look towards cheaper options.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.5M
Prediction:  ATL declines their half of $7M mutual option

Collin McHugh (ATL, RP, 37)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)
Kirby Yates (ATL, RP, 37)
$5.75M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

Both of these go in the same bucket as Brad Hand; useful veteran relievers with somewhat inflated team options that probably discourage a return. Perhaps Atlanta is underwhelmed by external options and decides to bring back one of the three but we projected all as doubtful to return on their respective options.

McHugh Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.5M
Yates Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.1M
Prediction: Both options declined, buyouts paid

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Austin Voth (BAL, RP, 32)
$2.45M Club Option (no buyout)

Voth was DFA'ed in early September putting his $2.45M option decision all but to rest this Fall.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Baltimore declines the option

BOSTON RED SOX

Justin Turner (BOS, 3B, 39)
$13.4M Player Option ($6.7M buyout)

This is one of the more interesting option decisions of the offseason. After the Dodgers declined his $16m Club option for 2023, Turner signed a 2 year, $21.7m guarantee with Boston. It paid $8.3m last season but he now controls a $13.4m Player option that carries a sizable buyout (50%). Entering his age 39 season, there’s probably two key considerations here: How many years does he intend to play AND is there motivation to play for a contender in those final seasons?

Turner could simply retire this offseason and earn $6.7m on his way out. If he plans to retire after 2024, he could just exercise the $13.4m Player option and finish his career in Boston. But if Turner intends to play beyond 2024, he might opt-out in search of another multi-year deal similar to his existing contract.

Financially speaking, the opt-out + buyout is his best option. Turner would enter a lackluster DH/1B free agent market coming off another productive season (.276 AVG / 23 HR / 96 RBI) and could realistically command a deal around 2 years, $15m. Accounting for the $6.7m buyout, the two year total would match his Boston deal ($21.7m).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Turner declines the option, takes the buyout, and tests the open market

Corey Kluber (BOS, SP, 38)
$11M Club Option (no buyout)

This looks like the end of the road for the two-time Cy Young Award winner. Boston signed Kluber last offseason to a 1 year, $10m deal that included an $11m Club option for 2024. Simply put, he was one of the worst starters in MLB through June before finishing the season on the IL. Perhaps Kluber gets another shot if he’s healthy but no chance the Red Sox exercise this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $11M option

Joely Rodriguez (BOS, RP, 32)
$4.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Rodriguez missed most of 2023 due to injury, making just 11 appearances for the Red Sox this season. He’ll be back on the open market this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $4.25M option

CHICAGO CUBS

Marcus Stroman (CHC, SP, 33)
$21M Player Option

Stroman was among the crowded group of SPs available in 2022 free agency.  He surprisingly signed with the rebuilding Cubs, settling for a short term deal that paid $50m across the first two seasons but provided a player option for 2024. That option vested at $21m but could have escalated to $25m based on innings pitched in 2022 and 2023 (conditions not met).

At one point it appeared obvious Stroman would opt-out following an All-Star worthy first half but he completely fell apart as the calendar flipped to July. He’s hinted at a desire to stay and potential extension but the Cubs reportedly are not interested. Now it seems he’ll likely opt-in to the final year and hope to restore some value ahead of 2024 free agency.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.6M
Prediction: Stroman exercises the $21M option

Kyle Hendricks (CHC, SP, 34)
$16M Club Option ($1.5M buyout)

This was the final guaranteed year of a 4 year, $55M arbitration extension that includes a $16M Club option for 2024. The option had vesting potential if he was top 3 in the 2020 Cy Young vote but Hendricks finished 9th.

His struggles in 2021 and 2022 made this option a longshot entering the season, but Hendricks’ bounceback performance will now force a difficult decision for the Cubs. The Stroman/Hendricks decisions are further complicated by multi-year commitments made to Jameson Taillon (4yr, $68M) and Drew Smyly (2yr, $19M) last offseason. The team probably anticipated Stroman and/or Hendricks being off the roster starting 2024. Instead, with Justin Steele their starting five might already be in place. It’s hard to suggest that's a bad problem but the Cubs need to find some runway for their younger arms.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Cody Bellinger (CHC, OF/1B, 28)
$12M Mutual Option ($5.5M buyout)

The former RoY and MVP could add Comeback Player of the Year to his accolades after a bounceback season in Chicago. The historic start to his career earned him $11.5m in 2020 and set a salary record for first-time eligible arbitration players. It put  Bellinger on pace to earn $44.6m across his first three years of arbitration eligibility despite the disastrous seasons that followed. The Dodgers non-tendered him last offseason to avoid paying the projected $18m salary in his final year of eligibility (Super Two status).

Bellinger subsequently signed a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with the Cubs. The $12m contract included a matching $12m Mutual option or $5.5m buyout for 2024. There’s no doubt Bellinger will decline his half of this but it’s less certain that he actually changes teams. Despite being one of the most coveted assets at the trade deadline, Chicago held him, and there seems to be mutual interest regarding a possible extension. If not, Bellinger should command one of the largest free agent contracts this offseason.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $22.5M
Prediction: Bellinger declines the option

Yan Gomes (CHC, C, 36)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Gomes served as the backup catcher in his first season with the Cubs but his role entering 2023 was uncertain after Willson Contreras departed to St. Louis in free agency. He ended up earning the lion's share of playing time on defense (55%) which helped facilitate a productive (.267 AVG / 10 HR / 63 RBI) line on offense. Now the Cubs hold a $6m Club option that would be a bargain if Gomes can come anywhere close to repeating that production. Chicago will likely exercise the option and pair him with Miguel Amaya for one more season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Brad Boxberger (CHC, RP, 26)
$2.45M Club Option ($800,000 buyout)

Boxberger only saw action in 11 games this season due to arm injury, so it’s unlikely the Cubs will rush to add guarantees to this situation anytime soon.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cubs decline the option

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Liam Hendriks (CHW, RP, 35)
$15M Club Option ($15M buyout - deferred)

Hendriks remarkable comeback from cancer treatment was derailed by Tommy John surgery in August, another discouraging injury that could force him to miss most or all of 2024. This was technically the final guaranteed year of his deal but fortunately his 2024 total is ‘guaranteed’ in the form of a uniquely structured Club option. The $15m option carries a matching $15m buyout that would pay $1.5m annually over 10 years.

The White Sox could decline and spread out the cost to free up money next year but they've already removed over $75m from an Opening Day payroll that hovered around $190m in consecutive seasons. It's difficult to imagine this team contending in 2024 so new GM Chris Getz might be encouraged to clear this payroll next season rather than deferring into future years. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.7M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Tim Anderson (CHW, SS, 31)
$14M Club Option ($1M buyout)

At one point his 6 year, $25m pre-arbitration extension was considered one of the best value deals in all of baseball. Anderson led the league with a (.335) batting average in 2019, won a Silver Slugger in 2020 and added consecutive All-Star appearances in 2021 and 2022. Chicago exercised their $12.5m Club option last season and control a similar $14m Club option for 2024.

With a shifting contention window and Anderson coming off the worst season of his career, the White Sox probably want to move on. Not to mention they’d simultaneously clear a path for top prospect (SS) Colson Montgomery who could debut in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.1M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Mike Clevinger (CHW, SP, 33)
$12M Mutual Option ($4M buyout)

This situation is hard to read. Chicago waived Clevinger in August but he cleared and stayed with the organization. It was a cost savings transaction but could have hinted at plans to decline their end of a $12m Mutual option for 2024. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol expressed hope for a return but we’re skeptical. Given his 2023 performance and team context, Clevinger should be tempted to reenter the free agent market. There are some off field concerns that could complicate his value but we think he’ll command a multi-year guarantee regardless. At minimum, he should easily surpass the $8m he’d be walking away from.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.6M
Prediction: Clevinger declines the option

CINCINNATI REDS

Joey Votto (CIN, 1B, 40)
$20M Club Option ($7M buyout)

Votto just completed the final guaranteed season of the massive 10 yr, $225m extension he signed way back in 2012. Now Cincinnati holds a $20m Club option or $7m buyout for 2024. It sounds like the 40-year old plans to play an 18th season but it might not come via this option. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is their future at 1B and the Reds should look to give him a full season of reps to build on his strong debut. That could be hard to do with a legacy player making $20m still in the fold. But Votto is an institution in Cincinnati and they shouldn't rush him out the door, the option salary just doesn't align with his current value. Assuming there's mutual interest in a return, the Reds could decline + buyout ($7m) then hand him something around 1 year, $7m in a lesser role.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.5M
Prediction: Cincinnati declines the option

Curt Casali (CIN, C, 35)
$2.5M Club Option ($750k buyout)

A foot injury and a platoon role afforded Casali only 80 ABs in 2023, putting his $2.5M option on notice. Though it’s not a daunting salary for a team with very few veteran guarantees on its payroll.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cincinnati exercises the option

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

No option candidates.

COLORADO ROCKIES

No option candidates.

DETROIT TIGERS

Miguel Cabrera (DET, DH/1B, 40)
$30M Club Option ($8M buyout)

After consecutive MVP awards in 2012 and 2013, Cabrera signed a massive 8 year, $248 million extension (starting 2016) days ahead of the 2014 season. The deal included individual $30m Club options for 2024 and 2025 that could vest with a top 10 MVP finish the previous year. Cabrera already announced his retirement following the 2023 season but these options were never in play from the start. He hasn’t received MVP votes since 2016 and would be entering his age 41 season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: N/A
Prediction: Retirement, Hall of Fame

Javier Baez (DET, SS, 31)
4 year, $98M Player Opt-Out

Baez was one of four big names at shortstop competing for free agent money in 2022. Corey Seager (10yr, $325M) signed a fully guaranteed deal but Carlos Correa (3yr, $105.3m), Baez (6yr, $140M) and Trevor Story (6yr, $140M) settled for contracts that included player opt-outs in 2023, 2024 and 2026 respectively. Correa capitalized on that strategy last offseason inking a 6 year, $200m deal despite a market including Trea Turner (11yr, $300M), Xander Bogaerts (11yr, $280M) and Dansby Swanson (7yr, $177M).

Now Baez is next in line with an opportunity to opt-out of the remaining 4 years, $98M left on his deal. It’s been reported he’s at least considering the opt-out which might come as a surprise following the worst full season of his career. We’re skeptical he’d match or exceed the total forfeited making it unlikely, but Baez would re-enter free agency as easily the most accomplished player available at the position - way ahead of other options like Brandon Crawford and Amed Rosario.

The offense has hit a cliff but he’s still excellent defensively. There would certainly be interest if he became available, just not at a $100m price tag. Perhaps the best-case scenario here is a trade where Detroit retains a chunk of the remaining contract (assuming no opt-out).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11.7M
Prediction: Baez opts-in

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET, SP, 31)
3 year, $49M Player Opt-Out

Rodriguez just finished the second season of a 5 year, $77m contract but now has the option to opt-out and bypass the final three years of that deal. His choice should be simple considering he’ll easily command north of the $49m total left on the existing contract. We project his value lands somewhere between Joe Musgrove (5yr, $100m) and Kevin Gausman (5yr, $110m).

Rodriguez vetoed a deadline trade to the Dodgers citing his “desire to remain closer to family on the east coast”. Perhaps it was a signal towards intentions of staying in Detroit, but that narrative is complicated considering a ‘family situation’ forced him to spend almost 3 months away from the team in 2022. If a reunion is actually on the table, it’ll have to come via free agency. Tigers president Scott Harris already said the organization won’t negotiate an extension and will instead wait for Rodriguez to exercise his opt-out. Detroit has exclusive negotiating rights until that happens. If they do want Rodriguez back, it’s puzzling that they’re unwilling to discuss a new deal - unless both sides already know where this is headed.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $20.5M (5 years, $102M)
Prediction: Rodriguez will opt-out

Carson Kelly (DET, C, 29)
$2.5m Club Option

Kelly was picked up in August after a swift DFA by Arizona. There’s probably not enough meat on the bone here to justify a $2.5M salary next season, even if his 2-year valuation places him higher.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.3M
Prediction: Detroit declines the option

HOUSTON ASTROS

Hector Neris (HOU, RP, 34)
$8.5M Player Option ($1M buyout)

Neris came to Houston in 2022 on a free agent deal. The Astros brought him in as a direct replacement for Kendall Graveman who signed a 3 year, $24m contract with the White Sox. Houston was unwilling to go beyond two years for any reliever and landed Neris on a 2 year, $17m guarantee that included a third year Club option at the same $8.5m valuation. That option converted to a Player option after Neris appeared in 110 games across both seasons. A critical piece of the Astros dominant bullpen, his value has only increased since signing and we fully expect an opt-out in search of a multi-year guarantee.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Neris opts out, seeking a multi-year deal

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

No option candidates.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Eduardo Escobar (LAA, 3B, 35)
$9M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Escobar was brought in on a 2 year, $20m guarantee after the Angels mistakenly self-assessed themselves as contenders. Now they’re tearing things down and will look to shed payroll wherever possible. This is one of those obvious spots and there is no chance they exercise his $9m Club option for 2024. Escobar can still provide value in the right situation and should find another deal, especially considering the 3B free agent market.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5M
Prediction: LAA declines the $9M option

Aaron Loup (LAA, RP, 36)
$7.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

LA brought in Loup to be the everyday setup reliever, and he hung around well in 2022 - but fell off of a cliff this past season. He’s a plug and play reliever at best going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: LAA declines the $7.5M option

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Lance Lynn (LAD, SP, 37)
$18M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Lynn was awful in Chicago and only marginally better after being traded to Los Angeles. He accepted the trade despite including the Dodgers on his no-trade list, which some players use to leverage future guarantees. Lynn could have approved the deal to LAD under conditions they exercise the 2024 Club option. We doubt that happened here considering his miserable first half performance. The Dodgers have questions at SP so perhaps they renegotiate, but not at this salary.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: LA declines the $18M option

Max Muncy (LAD, INF, 33)
$14M Club Option (no buyout)

Muncy posted another big season, raking 36 HRs, with an .808 OPS to boot. He’s a $15M player in our system, so a $14M option salary seems about right.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.7M
Prediction: LA exercises the $14M option

Joe Kelly (LAD, RP, 36)
$9.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kelly was acquired from the White Sox prior to this year’s deadline, but spent a month in IL due to arm issues. His value has been cut in half over the past two seasons.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.4M
Prediction: LA declines the $9.5M option

Blake Treinen (LAD, OF/1B, 36)
$7M Club Option (no buyout)

Shoulder injuries/surgery derailed each of the past two seasons for Treinen. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $7M option

Daniel Hudson (LAD, RP, 37)
$6.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Knee injuries kept Hudson on the shelf for half of 2022 and all of 2023. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $6.5M option

Alex Reyes (LAD, RP, 29)
$3M Club Option (no buyout)

LA took a flier on Reyes, who missed all of 2022 with a shoulder injury, but went on to miss all of 2023 with a torn labrum as well. He’s a minimum player until he can prove he can stay healthy for a season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $3M option

MIAMI MARLINS

Josh Bell (MIA, 1B, 31)
$16.5M Player Option

Bell probably can’t beat a $16.5M per year average on the open market - but he probably finds a total value guarantee north of it. With that said, Bell’s season really turned a corner when he joined Miami.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14.5M
Prediction: Bell exercises the $16.5M player option

Johnny Cueto (MIA, SP, 38)
$10.5M Club Option ($2.5M buyout)

Cueto posted a 6+ ERA and a minus WAR in 2023, putting his $10.5M option on notice. Is he in decline, or were injuries to blame for the struggles? He’s only 1 year removed from a 3.4 WAR campaign.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Miami declines the $10.5M option

Jorge Soler (MIA, OF, 32)
$9M Player Option

Soler put together a big power season (24 2B, 36 HR, .853 OPS), setting the 31-year-old up for a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14M
Prediction: Soler declines the $9M option

Matt Barnes (MIA, RP, 34)
$9M CLUB Option ($2.75M buyout)

Barnes only made 24 appearances due to injury, and has struggled to remain consistent for the better part of two seasons now.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Miami declines the $9M option

Jon Berti (MIA, INF, 34)
$3.625m Club Option ($25k buyout)

Berti remains a do-it-all player for Miami, and could be headed toward Arbitration 3 this winter with a very nice resume under his belt. Instead, the Marlins should find plenty of value in his $3.6M salary for 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Miami exercises the $3.625M option

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Mark Canha (MIL, OF, 35)
$11.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Canha was exceptional for Milwaukee (120 OPS+ in 50 games) after treading water with the Mets to start the 2023 campaign. His $11.5M option is very much a possibility for Milwaukee, but a multi-year contract extension could be as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee exercises the $11.5M option

Wade Miley (MIL, SP, 37)
$10m Mutual Option ($1M buyout)

Miley's put together one of his more efficient (and healthy) seasons of late (3.14 ERA, 2.52 WAR in 23 starts). The almost 37-year-old seems a shoe-in to exercise his end of this $10M, will Milwaukee do the same?

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $10M option

Andrew Chafin (MIL, RP, 34)
$7.25M Club Option ($750k buyout)

Chafin was acquired at the deadline from Arizona, but struggled to keep runners off base down the stretch for Milwaukee. He’s about a $3.5M player in our system right now, so a leap to $7.25M for 2024 seems pricey.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $3.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $7.25M option

Justin Wilson (MIL, RP, 36)
$2.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Wilson’s 2023 was basically a wash as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, then battled a lat issue down the stretch.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $2.5M option

MINNESOTA TWINS

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 3B, 29)
$10.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Polanco’s production has declined a bit in each of the past two seasons, but his value was on display down the stretch and into Minnesota’s postseason run. His $10.5M option aligns well with a current $11M valuation, making this a 50/50 call for the Twins.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10.5M option

Max Kepler (MIN, OF, 31)
$10M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kepler posted career highs in 2023 and was a major reason for the Twins 2023 success. A $1.5M raise for 2024 seems worthy.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10M option

NEW YORK METS

Omar Narvaez (NYM, C, 32)
$7M Player Option

Narvaez was reduced to a role player in New York with the emergence of Francisco Alvarez, sinking his current valuation down to near $3M. Opting in seems a no brainer for him, but he’s a trade candidate this winter as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Narvaez opts in to the $7M

Adam Ottavino (NYM, RP, 38)
$6.75M Player Option

The almost 38-year-old saw action in 65 games last season, and should be back in the fold for a middle reliever spot in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.8M
Prediction: Ottavino opts in to the $6.75M

Brooks Raley (NYM, RP, 36)
$6.5M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

The lefty reliever carries a $7M valuation into the winter, and his $6.5M option represents a $2M raise over last season’s compensation. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7M
Prediction: The Mets exercise Raley’s $6.5M option

NEW YORK YANKEES

No option candidates

OAKLAND A’s

Drew Rucinski (OAK, SP, 35)
$5M Club Option (no buyout)

Rucinski gave up 18 earned runs in 18 innings before hitting the shelf with an MCL sprain. The A's have a chance to pay him $5M or nothing this winter. Let's all guess which one they'll choose.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Oakland declines the option

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Scott Kingery (PHI, 2B, 30)
$13M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kingery hasn't played a meaningful game for the Phillies since the 2020 season. This one is already stamped in red.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum/Minor
Prediction: Philly declines the $13M option

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Jarlin Garcia (PIT, RP, 31)
$3.25M Club Option (no buyout)

Garcia dealt with a nerve issue in his arm for the 2023 season, all but guaranteeing that Pittsburgh takes the free out on his club option this winter. Especially with no buyout attached to the decision.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Pittsburgh declines the $3.25M option

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Nick Martinez (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Martinez at $16M per year over the next two seasons this fall. If they decline, Martinez garners back to back $8M player options instead. In both cases, the options must be decided on together (so 2 for $32M or 2 for $16M). While he posted career highs across the board in 2023, it’s still unlikely that San Diego locks in $32M on their end, putting the decision in Martinez’ hands.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Both sides decline the options

Michael Wacha (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Wacha for the next 2 years at $32M with an exercise this fall. One can argue he just posted his best overall season to date, and now carries an $18M valuation in our system. If San Diego declines, the scenario converts to a 3 year, $18.5M player option that Wacha is sure to opt out of.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $18M
Prediction: San Diego exercises the 2 years, $32M

Seth Lugo (SDP, SP, 34)
$7.5M Player Option

Finally got a chance to start exclusively, and rewarded San Diego for it (115 ERA+, 1.81 WAR). The almost 34-year-old holds a near $10M valuation in our system, and will likely seek a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.8M
Prediction: Lugo declines the $7.5M option

Matt Carpenter (SDP, DH/1B, 38)
$5.5M Player Option

Carpenter didn’t come close to recreating the magic he created with the 2022 Yankees, making his $5.5M player option for 2024 a bit of a problem for the Padres. The almost 38-year-old will lock in this payday as quickly as possible. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2M
Prediction: Carpenter exercises the $5.5M option

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Michael Conforto (SFG, OF, 31)
$18M Player Option

If the goal for Conforto was to prove he can be the player he was before his hamstring injuries, he did exactly that. His 2023 numbers finished up nearly identical to his 2021 production. Did he do enough to warrant a multi-year guarantee this winter? Probably, but the per year price tag won’t look a heck of a lot different than the $18M salary he needs to decide on with this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.1M
Prediction: Conforto opts out for a multi-year guarantee

Sean Manaea (SFG, SP/RP, 32)
$15M Player Option

Manaea was a bit of a jack of all trades, master of none, for the Giants in 2023, but he proved valuable from a reliability level down the stretch. $15M seems like a nice payday for him next season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12M
Prediction: Manaea exercises the $15M salary

Ross Stripling (SFG, SP, 34)
$15M Player Option

Stripling posted his worst statistical season in 3 years, and seems a lock to opt in to the $15M player option for 2024.  A nagging back issue should be cause for concern going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12.4M
Prediction: Stripling exercises the $15M salary

Alex Cobb (SFG, SP, 36)
$10M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Cobb has been one of the better values in baseball for the past 3 seasons (combined 6.55 WAR), so a $1M raise from $9M to $10M for 2024 is well within reason for San Francisco.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.4M
Prediction: San Francisco exercises the $10M option

SEATTLE MARINERS

No option candidates

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

No option candidates

TAMPA BAY RAYS

No option candidates

TEXAS RANGERS

Max Scherzer (TEX, SP, 39)
$43,333,333 Player Option

Scherzer has already consented to opting in on this massive salary as part of the move from New York this August. That was of course going to be the case in any scenario however. The good news? New York is paying $20,833,334 of this salary, leaving a much more tenable $22,500,000 for the Rangers to take on in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $31.5M
Prediction: Scherzer exercises the $43.3M option

Andrew Heaney (TEX, SP, 33)
$13M Player Option ($500k buyout)

Heaney couldn’t match his strong 2022 campaign, but still proved to be viable and worthy of a rotation spot down the stretch. He seems a shoe-in to accept the $13M player option, but his calculated value does align nicely with that price point, so venturing into the open market to seek a multi-year guarantee isn’t out of the question here either.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.7M
Prediction: Heaney declines for a longer guarantee

Jose Leclerc (TEX, RP, 30)
$6.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Leclerc has blossomed into a devastating back end reliever for the Rangers, who exercised his $6M option for 2023 with ease, and should have no trouble tossing in a $250,000 raise for 2024 to do so again.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10.6M
Prediction: Texas exercises the $6.25M option

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B, 35)
$18M Mutual Option ($500k buyout)

Merrifield posted nearly identical back to back seasons for Toronto in 2022 & 2023, but that production doesn’t approach a potential $18M salary for 2024. Toronto is largely expected to decline their end of this option, placing Merrifield back on the open market with a $6.5M valuation - not far off from the salary he just finished out in 2023 ($6.75M).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.5M
Prediction: Toronto declines the $18M option

Chad Green (TOR, RP, 33)
Multiple Conditions

It’s complicated. First and foremost, Toronto has the ability to exercise a 3 year, $27M extension at $9M per year through 2026. That seems highly unlikely right now. If/when declined, the scenario  converts to a 1 year, $6.25M player option for Green - which seems very likely to be exercised. If it’s not, Toronto then has the ability to exercise a 2 year, $21M extension at $10.5M per year - again, very unlikely. Green’s recovery from Tommy John should have him available by the start of the 2024 campaign, but he’ll be overpriced on that $6.25M salary if not.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M
Prediction: Green exercises his $6.25M player option

Yimi Garcia (TOR, RP, 33)
$6M Vested Option

His 2024 option was originally valued at $5m with a $1m buyout. Garcia needed 60 IP or appearances in 2023, OR 110 IP or appearances in 2022-23 combined to trigger a $6m Vesting option in his contract. He met all conditions and is guaranteed the full value of the previous option and buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.8M
Result: $6M option easily vested

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Victor Robles (WSH, OF, 27)
$3.3M Club Option (no buyout)

Despite a hopeful 2022 campaign, an injury plagued 2023 probably sealed the deal on Robles’ future in Washington. His $3.3M option isn’t overly expensive (especially in comparison to a $2.4M projection in arbitration next season), but the Nationals are likely to upgrade here no matter what. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M (Arbitration 3)
Prediction: Option declined, player non-tendered

As we approach the offseason, Spotrac projects contracts & destinations for our Top 10 MLB Free Agents, including 7 pitchers, 2 position players, & 1 who can do a lot of everything.

RELATED: 2024 MLB Free Agents

1. Shohei Ohtani (DH/SP, 29, LAA)

   Just how much (if any) will the UCL tear and subsequent surgery reduce Ohtani’s free agent contract? Let’s put it this way. If Shohei Ohtani was set to hit the market as just a position player this winter, his starting point would be Aaron Judge’s 9 year, $360M contract, which represented 17.1% of this year’s tax threshold. If we adjust that for the 2024 figure ($237M), this brings us to $366M over 9 years, or nearly $41M per year.
   
   Gerrit Cole’s 9 year, $324M free agent contract with the Yankees back in 2020 represented 17.3% of that respective tax threshold. If we adjust for 2024, that means $369M over 9 years. If we lop off one year of that (because he won’t be available to pitch in 2024), it’s $328M for 8 years, or $41M per year.
   
   In other words, if a Cy Young pitcher were to hit the open market this winter (see below), there’s a world where his agent could point to Gerrit Cole’s deal, and request 9 years, $369M in 2024.
   
   And if a two-time league MVP were to hit the open market this winter, there’s a world where his agent could point to Aaron Judge’s deal, and request 9 years, $366M as a floor.
   
   Is Shohei Ohtani going to score $735M over the next 9 years? Of course not. But we can’t argue that there isn’t data to show that he could conceivably request it. The only logical assumption we can make here is that 6-10 teams will make significant offers, and the only real question is: will the Dodgers match them all?

   Prediction: 12 years, $552M, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Blake Snell (SP, 30, SD)

   Talk about peaking at the right time, Snell turned a slow start in San Diego into a Cy Young performance heading toward the open market. He’s worth plenty more than the $45.5M he reeled in over the past 5 seasons.

   Prediction: 5 years, $115M, Baltimore Orioles

3. Aaron Nola (SP, 30, PHI)

   The production dipped in 2023 after a rock solid 2022 campaign (4th in Cy Young voting), but Nola now has over 650 strikeouts across the last 3 seasons, each of which he made 32 starts. He and Blake Snell should be eying very similar compensation this winter.

   Prediction: 6 years, $140M, Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Cody Bellinger (OF, 28, CHC)

   The Cubs don’t appear overly motivated to bring back Bellinger with any sort of long-term guarantee, but that shouldn’t stop him from finding a great contract this winter. After compiling a combined 1.0 WAR over the past three seasons, Bellinger broke back out with a 4.4 output, including 29 doubles, 26 homers, 20 stolen bases, and an .881 OPS. Is he fixed for good?

   Prediction: 5 years, $110M, San Francisco Giants

5. Matt Chapman (3B, 30, TOR)

   Chapman starting 2023 on a torrid pace, leading us all to believe he would blow past his 2022 production and post career highs. That didn’t end up being the case, and Chapman now enters the open market with at least a little bit of doubt attached to him. Still, he’s a power hitting, Gold Glove caliber 3rd baseman in an offseason where hardly any are available.

   Prediction: 6 years, $100M, Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Josh Hader (RP, 29, SD)

   After a rocky 2022, Hader rounded back into elite form heading toward free agency for the first time. Edwin Diaz put a new flag in the reliever market ground this winter, penning a $20.4M per year, $102M total value contract in NY. Will Hader approach or surpass these numbers? Mathematically he’s a $17.5M player in our system.

   Prediction: 5 years, $90M, Chicago Cubs

7. Clayton Kershaw (SP, 35, LAD)

   It’s been a steady dose of 1 year contracts for Kershaw and the Dodgers since 2021, and a steady dose of maintained, elite pitching production as well. If Kershaw (24 starts, 9.4 K/9, 177 ERA+) wants to continue his career, the Dodgers will almost certainly oblige. He’s a whopping $37M player in our system, but following the recent breadcrumbs here, a 1 year, $24M contract should be about right.

   Prediction: 1 year, $23M + incentives, Los Angeles Dodgers

8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, 25, Japan)

   He’s winning every pitching award possible in Japan, posting ridiculous numbers in 2023 (23 games, 169 Ks, 1.21 ERA)  in what is largely believed to be his swan song season there. Every MLB team is in on this one.

   Prediction: 5 years, $85M, New York Mets

9. Sonny Gray (SP, 33, MIN)

   After what seemed like a few declining seasons in Cincinnati, Gray posted back to back elite years for the Twins, and is a large reason for their latest AL Central Division Title. He’ll be 34 years old by the time Spring Training approaches, so this won’t be a blockbuster deal, but he’s certainly earned another pay day in this league.

   Prediction: 3 years, $66M, Minnesota Twins

10. Jordan Montgomery (SP, 30, TEX)

    In 11 starts for Texas this year, Montgomery posted a 2.79 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and a 2.1 WAR. He and Nathan Eovaldi became the goto arms for this team down the stretch, and at this point, it’s hard to imagine them moving forward without him in 2024 and beyond.

    Prediction: 6 years, $110M, Texas Rangers

Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts pulled a complete 180 this week in agreeing to a 3 year, $42M extension through the 2026 season. The deal puts a cap on a summer full of twists and turns that had many believing (myself included), that the only ending for this relationship would be a breakup. But with the Colts showing promise early in the season, and new QB1 Anthony Richardson showing potential to be an instant hit, Indy & Taylor saw a clearer future together.

The following contains a number by number look at the contract breakdown for Jonathan Taylor’s new deal.

Related: VIEW THE COMPLETE CONTRACT

The Total Value

Taylor’s 3 year extension now means a chance at $46.304M over the next 4 seasons (through 2026). How many active running backs have a contract that runs through 2026? 18. Of those, how many aren’t on a rookie contract? 16. Taylor joins only Miles Sanders as veteran running backs with a contract that covers the next 4 seasons.

For reference here, Miles Sanders secured $25.4M over 4 seasons, while youngster Bijan Robinson’s slotted rookie contract carries $21.9M through 2026. 

The Average Annual Value

At $14M per year (a number some wondered if running backs would ever hit or exceed again), Taylor now slots into the 3-hole in terms of active running back AAVs. When adjusting based on practical cash flow, this becomes a 3 year, $33.3M contract - $11.1M per year for practical purposes.

When I was prompted to propose a “fair” deal for Taylor earlier this spring by a few third-party outlets, this exact $33M over 3 year breakdown was determined to be our value landing spot.

The Guarantee Structure

Taylor secures $19,347,555 fully guaranteed at signing, consisting of $785,555 in remaining 2023 salary, $8,314,000 of 2024 compensation, & a $10,248,000 million signing bonus.

If these numbers seem a little wonky, remember that this deal was signed before Week 5 of a season, so there’s a proration occurring with the 2023 salary. Taylor’s base salary dropped from $4.304M down to a minimum $1.01M for the rest of the season. So, he earned $956,444 for his 4 weeks on the PUP list, and will now earn $785,555 for the next 14 weeks. The latter is the only portion we include in the “guarantee” metrics of this contract.

From there, $7,152,445 of his 2025 base salary will become fully guaranteed on March 17th, 2024. That amount is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing. This “early guarantee trigger” makes $26.5M of this contract guaranteed for practical purposes.

Guarantees at Signing (Active Veteran RBs)
1. Christian McCaffrey, $30M
2. Alvin Kamara, $22.8M
3. Jonathan Taylor, $19.3M

Full Guarantees (Active Veteran RBs)
1. Christian McCaffrey, $38.1M
2. Alvin Kamara, $33.8M
3. Jonathan Taylor, $26.5M

If we told you that back to back franchise tags in 2024 & 2025 for a running back likely calculates to just north of $25M, and that Taylor has now secured $26.5M guaranteed, with a chance to earn $33.3M through that time period, we can all probably agree that this is a win for Taylor.

The Cash Flow

We’ve referenced a lot of this already, but to add more detail to it, Taylor will now secure $11.99M in 2023, $7.686M more than he was previously slated to earn.

The cash drops down to $8.314M in 2024, but all of it is fully guaranteed - including the $510,000 of per game active bonus.

Taylor should (will) secure $13M in 2025, with 55% of it becoming fully guaranteed next March. A $1.02M per game active bonus could reduce his compensation by $60,000 per week missed.

Finally, another $13M is available in 2026, though none of it is guaranteed, and the same $1.02M per game active bonus exists to protect the team a bit.

Jonathan Taylor’s Cash Flow
2023: $11.99M (+$7.686M)
2024: $8.314M
2025: $13M
2026: $13M

The Cap Flow

Taylor’s new deal keeps his 2023 cap hit neutral for the current season. The reduction in base salary plus the proration from the new signing bonus all added back up to the exact $5.1M number that previously sat on the Colts’ books.

Taylor’s salary cap hit rises to $10.876M for 2024, which should be around $1.5M less than what a franchise tag would have accounted for next March.

In 2025, the cap figure jumps to $15.5M, which likely won’t even represent 6% of the league salary cap that season. A near $12M base salary can be converted to signing bonus in order to reduce this figure should the Colts see the need to.

Jonathan Taylor’s Cap Flow
2023: $5,117,482
2024: $10,876,000
2025: $15,562,000
2026: $15,562,000

Concluding Thoughts

Without getting down the rabbit hole too much (plenty of time to do that on the podcast), this is a win-win outcome. Anyone assessing the best landing spots for Jonathan Taylor in a potential trade always found themselves back to Indianapolis, realizing just how good of a fit this player is for this offense - RIGHT NOW.

The Colts bent a little to go north of the franchise tag cash flow, protecting themselves against $2.55M of this contract with per game active bonuses. The early vesting trigger on the $7.15M of 2025 base salary is a strong get for Taylor here, as the Colts could have leaned into the devaluation of this position to make that a March 2025 trigger, instead of in March 2024.

Is there a world where the Colts bow out of this contract after 2024, pay him the $7.1M 2025 salary as a parting gift, and take the near $6M of cap savings instead? Of course. But it’s unlikely (for now).

Jonathan Taylor should have no trouble seeing 3 years, $33.304M out of this contract through the 2025 season, when he’ll be a position-friendly 26 years old still. And if he remains healthy & productive, a small restructure to his 2026 salary should keep him in the fold for at least another year thereafter, especially if the Colts have a $70M per year contract extension to negotiate with their QB1 at that point.