Next Contract Series: Tyrese Maxey

Keith SmithNovember 15, 2023

The 2023-24 season is less than a month old, but Tyrese Maxey of the Philadelphia 76ers is already one of the league’s breakout stars. When things could have gotten messy for the Sixers, as the James Harden drama swirled, Maxey stepped up to give Joel Embiid a new star-level running mate.

There’s little thought that Maxey might be a flash in the pan. He’s shown the ability to more than a third- or fourth-banana previously. It’s only now that Maxey is getting the usage to show he can be an All-Star (and maybe more!) himself.

That leaves the 76ers in an interesting spot. Daryl Morey delayed signing Maxey to a lucrative rookie scale contract extension this past offseason. The reason for that made sense. Philadelphia will still control the summertime process, by making Maxey a restricted free agent. And the team can use his smallish cap hold to maximize their cap space, while still giving Maxey the contract he earns.

All of that makes sense. Maxey transferred a bit of risk to himself by playing out his rookie scale deal, but he’d be set to cash in even bigger if he had a great year.

And having a great year is exactly what Maxey is poised to do.

Now, some of that risk (but not too much) has flipped back towards Philadelphia. Let’s break it all down!

Signing a Rookie Scale Extension this season

We’re only including this to note that Tyrese Maxey is no longer extension-eligible. The deadline for players to sign rookie scale extension was back on October 23.

That means Maxey is now destined for free agency this coming summer. Barring some unforeseen disaster, Philadelphia will issue Maxey a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620. That’s a bump up from the $6,259,588 qualifying offer Maxey was set to get. The reason for this is that Maxey will assuredly meet starter criteria and will earn the larger qualifying offer.

In reality, none of that really matters, beyond the Sixers tendering Maxey a qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. He’s not signing the qualifying offer.

What does matter is Maxey’s cap hold. That figure will be $13,031,760. That’s what will sit on the Sixers books and that’s what will drive Philadelphia’s offseason.

Finally, for what’s it now worth, before 2023 free agency/extension season opened we projected Maxey to sign a five-year, 25% of the cap maximum extension. Nothing has changed to make anyone believe Maxey will make less than that amount, so let’s use that as our starting point.

Re-signing with the 76ers on a 25% Maximum Contract

As we said above, we projected Tyrese Maxey would sign a five-year rookie scale extension worth 25% of the cap. This was before Daryl Morey unveiled his cap space plan. But that deal should still be on the table, once Philadelphia uses up their cap space. Here’s what that contract projects to look like for Maxey:

2024-25: $35,500,000
2025-26: $38,340,000
2026-27: $41,180,000
2027-28: $44,020,000
2028-29: $46,860,000
Total: five years, $205,900,000

That’s a five-year max deal at 25% of the projected $142 million cap for 2024-25. It includes the maximum 8% raises for Maxey, as well.

That’s right at where we projected Maxey on an extension (with a minor adjustment, as the projected cap has come in lower than originally anticipated).

But…Maxey might be poised to cash in even bigger, if he keeps up his torrid pace.

Re-signing with the 76ers on a 30% Maximum Contract

If Tyrese Maxey makes an All-NBA team, he would qualify for Designated Player status. That would make him eligible to jump to a 30% of the cap maximum. That would look like this:

2024-25: $42,600,000
2025-26: $46,008,000
2026-27: $49,416,000
2027-28: $52,824,000
2028-29: $56,232,000
Total: five years, $247,080,000

That’s a 30% of the cap maximum contract with 8% raises. That’s a difference of $7.1 million in first-year salary and about $41 million in total salary over the life of the deal.

This is big, because Maxey likely would never have received Designated Player language in a rookie scale extension. He hadn’t sniffed an All-Star selection, let alone All-NBA selection. Now? Maxey looks like an All-Star lock, and there aren’t six guards playing better than he is in the NBA through the first few weeks of the season.

Note: If Maxey qualifies for Designated Player status by making All-NBA this season (he could also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, but neither are likely), he doesn’t have to automatically get the full 30%. He’s simply eligible to get up to that much. Maxey and Philadelphia could negotiate for anything up to 30%. But history tells us that if a player is eligible for it, they’re going to get the 30% max.

Signing with another team as a free agent

If things were to get sideways between Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers, he could choose to leave town. In that case, it doesn’t matter if Maxey qualifies for Designated Player status or not. You can only get a Designated Player deal from the team that drafts you, or if you were acquired while still on your rookie contract.

Here’s the maximum deal Maxey could fetch from a rival team as a free agent:

2024-25: $35,500,000
2025-26: $37,275,000
2026-27: $39,050,000
2027-28: $40,825,000
Total: four years, $190,848,000

That’s a four-year, 25% of the cap max with the max allowable 5% raises. As you can see, Maxey would make about $6.4 million less by leaving the 76ers, even on the comparable 25% starting salaries over four years. Adding in the fifth year, which Maxey can only get from Philadelphia, is where the real difference in total salary comes in.

The Philadelphia 76ers Cap Situation

As we’ve noted several times, Philadelphia didn’t extend Tyrese Maxey, because they plan to use cap space this summer. There are a few paths the Sixers can take with their cap flexibility:

Clearing the decks

In this scenario, the 76ers go about as scorched earth as they can with the roster and leave only Joel Embiid’s contract and Tyrese Maxey’s cap holds on the books:

Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
Tyrese Maxey (cap hold): $13,031,760
Total cap space available: $65,864,062

This would mean Philadelphia would salary-dump Jaden Springer’s contract onto someone, waive Paul Reed (or salary-dump him, should his contract become fully guaranteed), renounce all of their free agents and trade away their 2024 first-round draft pick (or select a draft-and-stash player).

In this situation, the 76ers would have enough cap space to sign a 10+ Years of Service free agent at the projected max of $49,700,000, with just over $16 million in remaining cap space. Philadelphia would also have the Room Exception available, which projects to be just over $8 million.

So, let’s say the 76ers use all of their available cap space, and then they re-sign Maxey to a 30% of the cap max, they could be looking at the following:

Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
Max Free Agent: $49,700,000
Tyrese Maxey: $42,600,000
Leftover Cap Space Free Agent: $16,164,062
Room Exception Free Agent: $8,063,000
Nine Veteran Minimum Free Agents: $18,977,157
Total salary: $186,920,157

That would leave the 76ers over the Luxury Tax by $14,353,157 and over the Tax Apron by $6,991,157.

As incredible (and rare!) as it would be, that’s how a team can go from using cap space to deep into the luxury tax in the same summer.

Retaining some talent

In this scenario, the 76ers don’t clear the decks. They keep the following on the books:

Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
De’Anthony Melton (cap hold): $15,200,000
Tyrese Maxey (cap hold): $13,031,760
Paul Reed: $7,723,000
Jaden Springer: $4,018,363
2024 First Round Pick (projected at 28): $2,668,715
Total cap space available: $40,929,280

This seems a bit more realistic. Philadelphia retains the ability to re-sign Maxey and Melton, while keeping Reed and Springer (a regular rotation guy and someone Nick Nurse seems to like) in the fold. And they use their draft pick to add some cost-controlled back-end roster talent.

Let’s say Philadelphia uses every bit of that cap space to sign one player, here’s what their books could look like:

Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
Tyrese Maxey: $42,600,000
Free Agent Signing: $40,929,280
De’Anthony Melton: $15,200,000 (same as his cap hold for simplicity’s sake)
Room Exception Free Agent: $8,063,000
Paul Reed: $7,723,000
Jaden Springer: $4,018,363
2024 First Round Pick (projected at 28): $2,668,715
Six Veteran Minimum Free Agents: $12,651,438
Total salary: $185,269,734

This would result in the 76ers being $12,702,734 over the Luxury Tax and $5,340,734 over the Tax Apron.

Of course, in both scenarios presented above, if Tyrese Maxey doesn’t qualify for the 30% max salary, he’ll come in at $35.5 million vs $46.7 million. That lops off $7.1 million off either tax bill. Even then, Philadelphia still goes from being a cap space team to a tax team in the same summer.

Now, the Sixers could further cut the tax bill down by signing their two 2024 second-round picks to a deal that would start at about $1.2 million. That would shave roughly $2 million more off the tax bill.

Summary

Tyrese Maxey is going to get paid this summer. He’s either getting a 25% of the cap maximum contract or a 30% of the cap maximum contract. ESPN’s Bobby Marks noted that Maxey would be the first player in history to qualify for a Designated Player deal when coming off their rookie scale contract that didn’t sign an extension. That’s pretty remarkable, even considering the Sixers cap space aspirations.

Normally, we predict what a player will sign for, or suggest an alternative structure, at that point of a Next Contract analysis. There’s no need here. Maxey is going to re-sign with Philadelphia, and it will either be for the projected $35.5 million first-year salary or the $42.6 million first-year salary.

The real difference will come with how deep into the tax the 76ers go. It’s extremely rare for a team to use both cap space and end up as a taxpayer in the same season. You have to have a player with a small enough cap hold to use cap space, while also knowing that same player is also going to sign a max deal.

And that’s exactly where the Sixers are.

Even if Daryl Morey uses some of next season’s flexibility in a form of “pre-agency”, the math doesn’t really change. Maxey is still getting a max deal, whether the Philadelphia 76ers use their cap space now, or in July. And, if they use that space now, they could stay over the cap to retain some additional free agents.

Almost any path leaves the Sixers as a very expensive, somewhat top-heavy team. But they should have enough depth to remain title contenders for the remainder of Joel Embiid’s contract, and into the years when Philadelphia transitions to become Tyrese Maxey’s team.

nba next contract series tyrese maxey tyrese maxey

2024 NBA Spending Power Projections

Keith SmithNovember 08, 2023

The 2023 NBA offseason is long behind us. Extension season wrapped up over a week ago. Early trade season doesn’t open for over a month, with full trade season opening in mid-January.

That means it’s time to take an initial look at where each of the NBA’s 30 teams project to land as far as spending power for the 2024 offseason. Of course, these projections will change as teams make trades, sign extensions and the like throughout this season. However, it’s still good to have a grounding of where teams stand today.

A few notes:

We are using the NBA’s official projections for the salary cap and tax lines. Some are projecting greater growth than the 4.4% represented here, but we will always use the official projections from the league.

Salary Cap of $142,000,000
Luxury Tax of $172,567,000
Tax Apron of $179,929,000
Second Apron of $190,837,000

Max salary tiers grow with the cap. They are as follows:

0-6 Years of Service: $35,500,000
7-9 Years of Service: $42,600,000
10+ Years of Service: $49,700,000

A projection has been made on all 2024-25 player and team options. Similarly, a projection was made on all partial and non-guaranteed contracts. And, finally, a projection made on renounce free agents has also been made for cap space teams.
2024 NBA Draft picks were based on ESPN’s BPI forecast for expected final record. All conditions on picks owned and owed were then reflected to determine the draft order and the subsequent cap holds.
No trades, extensions or signings have been projected. Essentially, rosters are as they stand at the time of publication.

With the advent of the new CBA, the landscape has changed around the NBA. There used to be three basic categories of teams each summer: Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams. Each season there would also be a handful of “swing” teams that could fall in one bucket or another.

In this new world, we have a fourth category: Second Apron teams. These are the NBA’s most expensive teams that the new CBA was largely designed to punish.

Under the new CBA, if you are at or over the Second Apron, you lose access to the Taxpayer MLE. In addition, the trade rules tighten up for these teams. Salary-matching in trades is limited to 100%, they aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries together in trades, they can’t sign-and-trade a player way (in addition to being unable to acquire a player via sign-and-trade) and they won’t be able to use TPEs.

Essentially, Second Apron teams are going to limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take back the same money as they send out (or less), signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum salaries.

With all that said, here is the projected spending power for each NBA team in 2024 free agency!

Cap Space Teams (3)

Orlando Magic: $40.6 million
Philadelphia 76ers: $39.8 million
Detroit Pistons: $38.5 million

This is the smallest group of teams we can confidently project to have cap space in a decade of doing this exercise. As more and more teams prioritize extensions and trades, cap space (and the number of impact free agents) has dried up. Still, as we write every time we talk about cap space, having this kind of room doesn’t just mean signing free agents. Cap space can also be used to facilitate trades, either for yourself or others.

Orlando tops our projections by virtue of having a roster full of players on rookie scale contracts and team-friendly extensions. This includes all of the Magic’s best players. In the recent past, Orlando has eschewed cap space to re-sign or extend their own players. That seems poised to change, as the Magic are finally in position to really push the rebuild forward with an impact addition or two. And they need to do that before they have to start extending players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero in coming years.

The Sixers have been bandied about as having double-max cap space and the like for months now, but that’s never really been a thing. Sure, Philadelphia could clear the decks and have only Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey (via his cap hold) on the books. That could create about $65.8 million in cap space, which is still well short of double-max space. Instead, a more conservative approach that sees the 76ers keeping De’Anthony Melton’s cap hold, along with Paul Reed, on the books seems likely. Also, Daryl Morey recently said he would like to spend some of this flexibility early, so don’t rule out Philadelphia taking on money in trades in this season in a form of “pre-agency”.

The Pistons have become an annual staple in this spot. Some years, Detroit has used space to chase veteran free agents. Other years, Troy Weaver has used his cap space to eat contracts and collect some assets. This year’s approach will probably be determined by how this season goes for the Pistons. If they show progress akin to Orlando, Detroit will probably look to add players. If not, another year of renting out cap space to pick up draft picks could be coming. One thing to keep in mind: 2024 is the final summer before a presumably max or near-max extension will be on the books for Cade Cunningham. We’re getting down to “spend it while you can” time for the Pistons.

Cap Space – Non-Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (6)

This is a pretty large group of swing teams. Some of them are on their way up. Others are just starting the rebuilding process. For a handful, they can create meaningful cap space. For the rest, they are more likely to stay over the cap. It’s really a decision of creating spending power vs retaining your own players.

Charlotte is in a bit of a weird spot. They have some big money coming off the books for Gordon Hayward, which could create a good amount of cap space. Yet, for another season, the Miles Bridges question hangs over this team. He signed the qualifying offer, so Bridges will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. If the Hornets move on from all of their free agents, they can reasonably create about $21.8 million in cap space. If they re-sign Hayward or Bridges, they’ll be a Non-Taxpayer MLE team.

The Rockets spent a good deal of money in free agency last summer. Despite that, they could do the same this summer. A handful of the contracts Houston signed players to are non-guaranteed. That means the team could create up to $26 million in space. But that would mean moving on from several rotation players. That amount of cap space is right on the tipping point of being able to replace those players in a meaningful way. Because of that, we’re projecting the Rockets to stay over the cap for now.

The Thunder finally went under the cap last offseason. They used that space to act as a clearing house for some contracts, in exchange for even more draft picks. This summer could go differently. Oklahoma City could create in the range of $20 million of space. But that would mean moving on from a few valuable players the Thunder have been developing. Instead, look for OKC to stay over the cap and maybe use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to bring in a value signing.

As of this writing, San Antonio projects to have the first overall pick in the draft. If Victor Wembanyama and the other young Spurs keep developing so rapidly, that projection will probably change. Running with it for now, that puts the Spurs in range of about $18-to-$20 million in cap space this summer. If they were to re-sign Doug McDermott, or even one of their lesser free agents, then San Antonio would stay over the cap.

Utah is in a fun spot. They could create up to $36 million in cap space. Or they could stay over the cap and retain a few of their own free agents. Given that their own free agents will probably command relatively reasonable contracts, look for the Jazz to go the cap space route…kind of. The guess here is that Utah will create cap space, but will end up using a large chunk of it to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen’s contract. Then, whatever is left over, plus the Room Exception, can be used to re-sign their own free agents or to acquire other players.

The Wizards are in Year 1 of their teardown. They took on Jordan Poole’s contract, but that came through the chained-together transactions where they shed Bradley Beal’s contract. Washington also re-signed Kyle Kuzma and extended Deni Avdija, but those were value contracts. If the Wizards want, they can create about $24.6 million in cap space. That would mean seeing all of their free agents leave town, but those guys don’t seem long for D.C. anyway. If Washington chooses to keep Tyus Jones’ cap hold on the books, they’ll be over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer MLE Teams (4)

This is usually the largest group of teams we have, and it may well still end up that way. But for now, we can confidently project only four teams to be in range of using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

All four of these teams have two things in common. They look to have only a few roster spots to fill and they have plenty of clearance under the Tax Apron. That puts all of these teams in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into any hard cap issues.

In addition, unlike the swing teams, there isn’t a reasonable path to cap space for any of these teams. Indiana would be the closest, but they’d be punting on some very valuable players to create cap space. That seems highly unlikely.

Non-Taxpayer MLE – Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (6)

This group is close to tripping into the Luxury Tax, or even over the Tax Apron. Most of that is related to pending free agents that these teams could re-sign. And for a handful, they are close enough to the Tax Apron, that the hard cap would become an issue if they used the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Hawks, Bulls, Cavaliers, Heat and Pelicans are all going to have free agent decisions to make. If they re-sign, or extend, those players to expected-value contracts, they’ll be butting up against the tax or even the tax apron. That will take them out of range of using the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Raptors are in a very different spot. Toronto could conceivably hit a major reset and create up to a whopping $71 million in cap space. But that would mean seeing players like Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. walk away for nothing. That seems unlikely, but Toronto has lost Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet in free agency over the last few offseasons. We’re going to be conservative and suggest that if Masai Ujiri and the Raptors believe they are losing those guys this summer, they’ll trade them for other players (and some longer-term salary) before losing them for nothing.

Taxpayer MLE Teams (2)

The addition of the Second Apron has created a smaller-than-usual window for teams to be in position to use the Taxpayer MLE, but without creating issues against the Second Apron hard cap.

The Mavericks project to be around $16 million under the Second Apron, but they also only have two roster spots to fill. That leaves enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE to add a player, with enough wiggle room to stay under the hard cap that would be created at the Second Apron.

It might be a surprise to see the rebuilding Trail Blazers in this spot, but they took on a good amount of salary in the Damian Lillard trade, and the subsequent Jrue Holiday trade. Portland also re-signed Jerami Grant to a big contract too. As it stands, the Blazers sit just over the Luxury Tax line. That won’t be a thing, as a rebuilding team can’t pay the tax. But it will limit what kind of spending power Portland has this summer. Instead of free agent signings, look for the Trail Blazers to keep retooling their roster through trades.

Second Apron Teams (9)

By far, this is our largest group of teams for 2024 offseason projections. This is a direct result of two things. First, the Second Apron exists now, and some teams are over or up against it. Second, several teams took the “gap year” (or maybe better put the “get your books in order year”) to load up. That’s got us in a spot where roughly one-third of the league will be unable to add a free agent for more than the minimum this summer.

All nine of these teams are already over or right up against the Second Apron. Or they will be once they re-sign some key free agents. From there, this group of nine will be limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take in similar (but not more) money, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

nba spending power

Clippers Finally Acquire James Harden

Keith SmithOctober 31, 2023

The James Harden trade saga (the 3.0 version, at least), is finally over. After months of back-and-forth drama, Harden will land with his desired team in the LA Clippers. In exchange, the Philadelphia 76ers will acquire a package of expiring salary and draft picks.

Because they are seemingly always involved in a trade that features draft picks, the Oklahoma City Thunder will help clear the path for the Clippers to trade an additional pick to the 76ers. The Thunder will pick up 2027 first-round pick swap rights, in exchange for sending a protected version of the 2026 Clippers first-round pick they own to the Sixers. (This is likely to end up in a “last favorable” situation of the 2026 picks Oklahoma City owns.)

But the big parts here are Harden to the Clippers, and the 76ers cleaning up their cap sheet to make a 2024 free agency run. Let’s dive in!

The trade details:

LA Clippers acquire
James Harden, P.J. Tucker, Filip Petrusev

Oklahoma City Thunder acquire
2027 first-round pick swap rights with the LA Clippers

Philadelphia 76ers acquire
Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Kenyon Martin Jr., Marcus Morris Sr., two first-round picks (protected 2026 Clippers (via Thunder), 2028 Clippers), two second-round picks (2024 Pacers, Jazz or Cavs (TBD), 2029 Clippers) and a 2029 first-round pick swap

LA Clippers

Incoming salary:

James Harden: $35.6 million

Filip Petrusev: $1,119,563 ($559,782 guaranteed)

P.J. Tucker: $11 million for 2023-24, 11.5 million player option for 2024-25

Total incoming 2023-24 salary: $47,774,063

Outgoing salary:

Nicolas Batum: $11.7 million

Robert Covington: $11.7 million

Kenyon Martin Jr.: $1.9 million

Marcus Morris Sr.: $17.1 million

Total outgoing 2023-24 salary: $42,450,086

First, let’s break down how this will functionally work! The Clippers will acquire James Harden and P.J. Tucker and their combined $46,654,500 salaries as one bundle. Petrusev will be acquired as a single salary via the Minimum Salary Exception.

LA will send out the four players at a combined amount of $46,695,095 (that’s the four salaries, plus the allowable 110% bump for salary matching).

That means this deal just squeaks in by $40,595 within the salary-matching rules. And it requires Harden to waive his 15% trade bonus. If Harden wants that 15% bonus, the Clippers will have to find about $5.1 million in salary. That seems unlikely to be a thing, given Harden is finally going where he wants to be.

(There is a version of this trade where the 76ers break the deal down further and use 125% salary-matching rules. That version would create a larger TPE for the Sixers, but it would hard cap them. And Philadelphia would be just $2.8M under the hard cap in the scenario. That’s probably tighter than they want to be, simply to create a TPE that will likely go unused. We’ll know when the trade is actually completed which path the 76ers chose.)

As far as the basketball side of this trade…wow! A Halloween blockbuster!

The Clippers are even more all in now. They’ll have a core of stars including Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They sapped some of their depth, but recovered a bit by taking on Tucker. And LA was able to keep Terance Mann too.

Harden, for all of his off-court nonsense and recent injuries, has generally been pretty durable. He’ll give the Clippers some coverage if (when?) Leonard and/or George have to miss some time. Instead of the offense becoming the Russell Westbrook show, LA will have a guy who can still create offense all on his own.

When the team is fully healthy, they’ve got a lot of options on offense now. The Clippers will be small-ish (Leonard will effectively be the starting power forward), but they should be fine. Leonard can guard up, and if they need to go with more a traditional four, Ty Lue can go with Tucker. And, lest we forget, Harden has been at his best in recent years at guarding, bigger, less-mobile players. So, the options are actually fairly plentiful for Lue to choose from matchup-wise.

On offense, the Clippers become even more deadly. In theory, at least. There are some questions about putting Westbrook in even more of an off-ball role, but Lue should be able to stagger his lineups enough to make sure he has two of the main scoring engines out there at all times. That should allow everyone to get enough touches to keep them involved.

As for depth, LA will have Tucker and Mann in place, along with Norman Powell, Mason Plumlee and Bones Hyland. That’s pretty solid, as far as a 10-man depth chart goes.

Mostly, this trade lends more short-term certainty to the Clippers. They are covered if one of the stars has to miss some time. That should keep the offense afloat, instead of things falling apart as they did in the 2023 playoffs.

Long-term, there’s just as much uncertainty as ever. Harden can’t be extended, because he signed only a two-year deal as a free agent in 2022 (two-year contracts can’t be extended).

That makes this a one-year experiment. If everything works out great and the Clippers make that long-awaited NBA Finals run, they can re-up with Harden, as well as Leonard and George in free agency this summer. If it doesn’t work, the team is out some more draft capital, but there isn’t any additional long-term salary commitment, minus Tucker’s sure-to-be-picked-up player option for 2024-25.

The Clippers have strayed back into familiar, yet scary, territory as far as draft picks go. Effectively, they are right back where they were a couple of years ago. LA has no control over their first-round picks until 2030. That was the exact situation they were in when they acquired George from the Thunder back in 2019.

But LA is the type of team that can conceivably spend their way out of troubles down the line. And if things really go south, the Clippers can always trade away their stars to recoup some draft picks.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary:

Nicolas Batum: $11.7 million

Robert Covington: $11.7 million

Kenyon Martin Jr.: $1.9 million

Marcus Morris Sr.: $17.1 million

Total incoming 2023-24 salary: $42,450,086

Outgoing salary:

James Harden: $35.6 million

Filip Petrusev: $1,119,563 ($559,782 guaranteed)

P.J. Tucker: $11 million for 2023-24, 11.5 million player option for 2024-25

Total outgoing 2023-24 salary: $47,774,063

The Sixers don’t achieve a ton on-court with this trade…at least at the moment. It’s unclear how much, if anything, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Marcus Morris Sr. will contribute to Philadelphia basketball-wise. At least one or two of them will probably play, because the Sixers did open up opportunities at the power forward spot in this trade.

Player-wise, K.J. Martin is the most interesting guy the 76ers acquired. He’s got that athletic bounciness that the Sixers otherwise lack. He could start, or become a really interesting bench guy. Martin is also the type of player Nick Nurse will love throwing into games at a bunch of different spots and just asking him to create chaos.

The real gets here for Philadelphia were the draft picks, and the cap flexibility. That’s what they were seemingly always after, and Daryl Morey pulled it off.

Philadelphia picked up two direct first-round picks in this deal, plus a far-out pick swap. By taking picks in 2026 (the protections/conditions the Thunder added to this pick are TBD as of this writing) and 2028, along with the 2029 swap, the 76ers can wait to see if the Clippers crater down the line. It’s unlikely that all of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden will still be playing at an All-Star level by the time the latter of those two picks are due. Heck, it’s unclear if they’ll even be at that level by the time the first pick comes due in 2026.

That’s more than a recouping of the draft capital Philadelphia spent to acquire Harden in the first place. That’s great work by Morey.

Beyond the picks, but of no less importance, the Sixers not only conserved their 2024 cap space in this deal, but they created even more. P.J. Tucker is a near-guarantee to pick up his player option for next season. That’s something Philadelphia would have had to deal with, as they dream of max cap space.

As it stands now, the 76ers will likely clear the decks almost as clean as they can approaching the summer of 2024. There are really two scenarios to consider.

Scenario A: Philadelphia goes for every dime they can get, while retaining Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

In this scenario, the Sixers renounce all of their free agents (including De’Anthony Melton) who aren’t Maxey, and they waive Paul Reed (assuming his contract remains non-guaranteed). We’ll also assume they trade their 2024 first-round pick for some sort of future pick down the line. (Both scenarios assume Philadelphia does not pick up Jaden Springer’s rookie scale team option for 2024-25).

In that case, the 76ers would have only Embiid at $51.4 million and Maxey’s cap hold at $13 million on the books. When you add back the roster charges (10 of them at the league minimum), Philadelphia would have a projected $65.2 million in cap space. The 10-plus Years of Service maximum salary projects to be $49.7 million for 2024-25.

That’s enough to sign a maximum veteran, with about $15.5 million to spend leftover. In addition. Philadelphia would have the Room Exception, which projects to be just over $8 million.

Scenario B: Philadelphia retains a couple of key players, in addition to Embiid and Maxey.

In this scenario, the Sixers renounce everyone who isn’t Maxey and Melton, and they also keep Reed. We’ll also assume they keep their first-rounder too, just for comparison’s sake.

This scenario leaves Philadelphia with about $43.3 million in cap space. That’s not enough for a 10-plus Years of Service maximum, but it is enough for 7-to-9 Years of Service maximum (projects to be $42.6 million for 2024-25). And, again, the 76ers would have the $8 million Room Exception to spend.

So, it’s kind of choosing between $22 million in additional cap space, or retaining Melton’s free agent rights, Reed and the first-round pick. There are plusses and minuses to both approaches. The guess here is that Daryl Morey will have an understanding of who is in play in free agency, long before having to make decisions on renouncements and waivers. (No, this isn’t a cheap tampering joke! It’s just a reality of how these things work.)

There is one other scenario in play…and it’s the most interesting one of all.

Morey reportedly wanted players, or assets to add players, in any Harden deal. He accomplished the former in terms of salary-matching and the latter in terms of actual assets. If Morey is committed to being a title contender, the 76ers are just below that level. They are a solid playoff team, but shy of the true contender tier. But that could all change with another deal or two.

In a very real sense, Morey added $46 million in tradable salary in this deal, and he also has the draft picks necessary to juice any offers he wants to make. That’s enough to get in the conversation for just about whatever star comes available next. It’ll take 60 days before Philadelphia can re-aggregate the guys they just acquired, but that’s still well in advance of the trade deadline.

There’s a world where the Sixers do a little “pre-agency” work and acquire a player ahead of the trade deadline. That would give Philadelphia the player now, to aid in a playoff run this season, while also presumably giving them the leg up on keeping said player moving forward. It’s also possible, Morey could flip some of the newly-acquired players and draft assets for a better player who is also on an expiring contract. Then, if things don’t work out great, they can move on, without having harmed the 2024 cap space plan.

The main takeaway: Philadelphia now has options that they didn’t have before. They recouped draft assets, they added tradable salary that can be used in just about any combination imaginable, and they did nothing to hurt their future flexibility. That’s mission accomplished as far as Daryl Morey’s stated trade objectives.

Oklahoma City Thunder

We’ll keep this one relatively short and sweet. The Thunder kicked the can down the road as far as a draft pick goes…maybe. Oklahoma City will reportedly add some protections/conditions to the 2026 first-round pick they are now conveying to Philadelphia on behalf of LA. Likely, that means if that pick becomes really good (top-five, top-10, lottery?) the Thunder will keep it, and send another pick to Philadelphia. Otherwise, the Sixers get it.

In exchange, Oklahoma City gets control over yet another Clippers pick in 2027, via swap rights. There is a very real chance the Thunder could be a considerably better team than the Clippers in 2027. Oklahoma City is young and improving rapidly. In four years, the Clippers will have gone from old to ancient, and will likely be on a downswing.

This is Sam Presti at his best. This is why he’s kept control of so many picks, even while having to waive some former first-rounders recently, due to roster constraints. Presti can insert his team into almost any deal by offering to help things along, while rebalancing his draft assets down the line. No one does that better than Presti does.

nba trade james harden james harden

2020 NBA Draft Class Rookie Scale Extensions

Keith SmithOctober 24, 2023

The deadline has come and gone for extending rookie scale contracts for members of the 2020 NBA Draft class. In total, 14 players reached extensions worth more than $1.4 billion in total salaries. Both are records, according to our data on Spotrac.

There were a few themes, perhaps signs of impacts of the new CBA already being felt.

THEME #1

Teams are now allowed to offer non-maximum five-year deals. Under the previous CBA, any rookie scale extension of five years had to be a max contract. That was felt right away.

We still saw three Designated Player extensions (Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton), but there were three other five-year deals reached. Desmond Bane got what we’ll refer to as a functional max, as he has bonus language putting him just below a guaranteed max deal. Devin Vassell and Jaden McDaniels both got less than the max, but each got five years. That’s a new thing, and the coming years will tell us if those deals set a precedent.

THEME #2

Zeke Nnaji got the only player option in the class. And his came in a deal that was pretty creative (more on that later).

Player options on rookie scale deals had previously been reserved for the guys who established themselves as stars in their first three seasons. Both Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell got player options on the rookie scale extensions they signed in 2020. Luka Doncic and Trae Young each followed with a player option on their five-year max extensions. Since then, no one else has gotten one until Nnaji.

This is a return to norm. Player options are again being reserved for special cases, either superstars or creative contract structures.

THEME #3

Three players (Aaron Nesmith, Zeke Nnaji and Payton Pritchard) signed contracts that will come in under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. An additional three players (Deni Avdija, Cole Anthony and Josh Green) signed deals that will be roughly equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

It used to be that to get a player to sign an extension, you had to beat the MLE amount. Otherwise, players would bet on themselves and enter restricted free agency. And deals far below the MLE equivalent were very rare.

That’s changing on both the player and team sides. Teams like Boston, Denver and Dallas are going to be dancing around the luxury tax and both tax aprons for the foreseeable future. Locking up their players now is good business. It keeps the player in the fold, while also giving the team some tradable salary down the line.

For Nesmith, Avdija and Anthony, this was a chance to lock in some guaranteed money in what could have been an uncertain season leading into an uncertain summer. None are locks to play a big enough role to have that true breakout season it would take to really cash in as restricted free agents. And their teams could all choose to go the cap space route, which might have taken any of the three out of the mix for a new deal.

For Nesmith, Anthony and Green, all took three-year deals (Anthony’s deal actually as a team option on the third season). In exchange for signing team-friendly extensions, all three players will be able to get back on the market while entering the prime years of their careers.

It’s also a reading of the landscape. The cap for 2024-25 doesn’t project to jump the full 10% possible, as of now. If the cap growth is less than some think, it could depress the market some. And restricted free agency is already far more team-friendly than player-friendly, as players like Austin Reaves and P.J. Washington discovered this past summer.

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $62 million

We wrote this in the prediction piece: “Normally, we’d say the Hawks should lock up Okongwu. But this team has so much long-term salary already committed for a middle-of-the-pack roster. Because of that, Atlanta may need to rebalance the roster a bit before taking care of Okongwu.” So much for that!

As it stands, Okongwu got one of the best deals from the team side. $15.5 million AAV for a guy who will probably be a good starting center in a year or two is tremendous value for an increasingly expensive Hawks team. And it frees up Atlanta to trade Clint Capela down the line to eventually rebalance the roster.

#7 Killian Hayes – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No real surprise here. Hayes has looked good this preseason, and Monty Williams seems to be a fan. But there hasn’t been enough real production to warrant an extension.

#8 Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded. Then, four years and $70 million seems like a worthy gamble as an upside bet.

Actual: No extension

Despite being traded from the New York Knicks to the Indiana Pacers, Toppin didn’t get an extension. That’s fine. The Pacers are taking a wait-and-see approach. If Toppin breaks out, Indiana can control the process in restricted free agency.

#9 Deni Avdija – Washington Wizards

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $55 million

This one was a bit of a surprise. The Wizards committed MLE-equivalent money to Avdija, but structured the deal as a declining contract. He’s the best defender on the roster, even if he’s in a crowded perimeter forward mix. If nothing else, this is a very tradable deal for Washington down the line.

#10 Jalen Smith – Indiana Pacers

Smith had his third- and fourth-year options declined by the Phoenix Suns. He was traded to Indiana during the 2021-22 season. Smith then signed a three-year, $15.1 million with the Pacers in the summer of 2022.

#11 Devin Vassell – San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: Five years, $115 million, no options

Azubuike had his fourth-year team option declined by the Jazz. Given the presence of Walker Kessler on the roster, it’s likely Azubuike will be playing elsewhere next season. (Azubuike is now on a two-way deal with the Phoenix Suns.)

#28 Jaden McDaniels – Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: four years, $100 million, no options

Actual: Five years, $131 to $136 million

McDaniels cashed in even more than we thought. Going the full five years is a win for the Timberwolves, which might have led to McDaniels getting more in terms of AAV than we predicted. This is still a really good deal for Minnesota and McDaniels both. The Wolves now have some cover if (when?) they trade either Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert, between the extensions for McDaniels and Naz Reid. But in the short-term, the Wolves are going to be very expensive for a middle-of-the-pack team. That means moves are coming…eventually.

#29 Malachi Flynn – Toronto Raptors

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

It’s more surprising that Flynn had both of his rookie scale options picked up than him not getting extended. This is approaching Last Chance Saloon time for Flynn, as far as saving his NBA career.

#30 Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

Actual: Five years, $197 million to $206 million

Bane didn’t get the max deal we predicted, but he more or less did. If he hits his incentives, Bane will make the max. Given he’s the surest thing for Memphis this season (and possibly beyond), this is a terrific contract for both the Grizzlies and Bane.

2019 Draft Class

Chuma Okeke – Orlando Magic

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Okeke signed a year later, after being drafted in 2019. Even with the extra year, he hasn’t shown enough to land an extension. The Magic also have a ton of talent stockpiled at Okeke’s positions. He’s more of a trade candidate now than he ever was an extension candidate.

nba rookie extension

Next Contract Series: Klay Thompson

Keith SmithOctober 20, 2023

Klay Thompson has spent all 12 seasons of his NBA career with the Golden State Warriors. That includes the two seasons when Thompson painstakingly rehabbed from first a torn ACL and then a torn Achilles’ tendon. Given all Thompson and the Warriors have been through together, including winning four titles, it’s hard to imagine Thompson wearing another uniform.

Yet, Thompson and Golden State having seemingly made little progress in extension talks. That leaves Thompson potentially playing out an expiring deal and his future a little unsettled.

Before we get into what Thompson’s next contract could look like, let’s do a little background.

Thompson was drafted by the Warriors at the 2011 NBA Draft. He played out his rookie scale deal, and inked a four-year, $69 million extension. Thompson played that deal out, and then signed a new five-year, $190 million maximum contract in the summer of 2019.

That max deal is the one that is wrapping up now. Golden State signed Thompson to that contract, knowing he’d miss the first season, after he tore his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals. After two missed seasons, Thompson return to help the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals. Now, he’s wrapping up the deal on a $43.2 million expiring contract for the 2023-24 season.

Thompson is 33 years old. He’ll be 34 when his next contract starts, whether it’s an extension or a new contract. Because Thompson is turning 34 ahead of next season, he’ll avoid bumping into the Over-38 rule by one season. That keeps things much simpler, when we consider the absolute max deal Thompson could ink.

Let’s dive into the various options Thompson and the Warriors have, now and this coming offseason.

Signing a Veteran Extension this season

Thompson is extension-eligible right now. There’s no waiting period for him to extend with the Warriors. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Thompson will remain extension-eligible through June 30, 2024 (the eve of free agency). Extension-eligible players that are on expiring deals (or have an option for the 2024-25 season) can sign an extension through the end of the league year. Extension-eligible players will multiple years left on their contract can only extend through October 23.

For the Warriors and Thompson, that gives them plenty of time to hammer out a new deal. A max extension for Thompson would look like this:

- 2024-25: $49,700,000
- 2025-26: $53,676,000
- 2026-27: $57,652,000
- 2027-28: $61,628,000
- Total: four years, $222,656,000

Thompson is eligible to extend for up to four total season and for 140% of his current salary. That 140% would take Thompson past his max salary, so he would be capped at $49.7 million for the 2024-25 season. That’s the projected 10-plus years of service maximum at 35% of the projected $142 million salary cap. If the cap goes up more than projected, the contract would adjust accordingly.

It’s important to note that this is the maximum amount that Thompson is eligible to extend for right now. It’s not likely he would get quite that much. We’re just setting the parameters here.

Re-signing with the Warriors as a free agent in 2024

If Golden State and Thompson can’t reach agreement on an extension, but they aren’t quite ready to part ways, he’ll be eligible to add a fifth season in a new max contract. The first four seasons would look the same as above, but there would be a fifth season tacked on:

- 2024-25: $49,700,000
- 2025-26: $53,676,000
- 2026-27: $57,652,000
- 2027-28: $61,628,000
- 2028-29: $65,604,000
- Total: five years, $288,260,000

This is a five-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max with 8% raises. Being able to add that fifth year makes a major difference, even if it’s unlikely that this contract would end up at that level.

One important note: If Thompson were to sign a new contract, as opposed to an extension, he’d be eligible to add a rare negotiated no-trade clause into his new deal. To date, only Bradley Beal (now of the Phoenix Suns) has a negotiated no-trade clause. Thompson would not be able to add a no-trade in an extension, because his current contract does not include a no-trade clause.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

If things get really sideways and Thompson leaves the Warriors, here’s what a max deal with another team would look like:

- 2024-25: $49,700,000
- 2025-26: $52,185,000
- 2026-27: $54,670,000
- 2027-28: $57,155,000
- Total: four years, $213,710,000

That’s a 35% of the cap maximum contract, but limited to four years and 5% raises. In comparison to the extension Thompson could sign, he’d be leaving almost $9 million total on the table. And, of course, Thompson could only get a fifth year from the Warriors in a new contract.

Summary

As we said before, it’s really hard to imagine Klay Thompson playing out his career in anything but a Golden State Warriors jersey. The Warriors took care of Draymond Green this summer, despite rumors that a separation could happen. And, of course, Stephen Curry is signed through the 2025-26 season.

Curry is Curry, but Green’s new contract could be a possible signpost for where Thompson’s next deal ends up.

Even as he’s aged, Green has remained a productive player. He no longer brings that Defensive Player of the Year impact every game, but he summons it when necessary. And he’s still a good playmaker, rebounder and leader.

Thompson bounced back with a pretty solid season in his return year in 2022. He averaged 20.4 points per game on 43/39/90 shooting splits. That was good enough to be a big part of the Warriors winning the 2022 NBA Finals.

Last season, Thompson was even better. He averaged 21.9 points on 44/41/88 shooting splits. Most importantly, Thompson played in 69 regular season games and held up physically through the team’s second-round playoff exit.

That last part is important, as that’s what should give the Warriors (or, less likely, another team) confidence in giving Thompson a new contract. However, despite us laying out the max terms, Thompson isn’t getting a max deal. Instead, his current $43.2 million contract probably represents a good starting point for an extension.

In recent years, we’ve seen a handful of veteran players do an in-season extension that took their salary down from the prior season. The best example was Al Horford last season. Horford was on an expiring $26.5 million contract with the Boston Celtics. He signed a two-year, $19.5 million extension that runs through this season and next.

Thompson is younger than Horford, and better positioned to not have to take such a drastic pay cut. As laid out above, he’s still extremely productive, and he has a long, championship history with Golden State.

That brings us back to Green and his new contract. He made $25.8 million in 2022-23, before declining a $27.6 million player option for 2023-24. Despite rumors that Green could look to leave the Warriors, he pretty quickly agreed to a four-year, $100 million contract. That deal sees Green make $22.3 million this season, before topping out with a $27.7 million player option in 2026-27.

While Green hasn’t missed seasons like Thompson has, last year’s 73 games were the most he’s played in a single season since 2017. He’s regularly become a guy who will miss 20-30 games a year. Thompson, despite the two missed season, has been a relative ironman. And again, his nightly production is always there. He’s one of the more consistent performers in the NBA from game to game.

Adding it all up, and given the Warriors ever-present massive tax bill, an extension like this seems to make sense for both sides:

- 2024-25: $35,000,000
- 2025-26: $32,200,000
- 2026-27: $29,400,000
- 2027-28: $26,600,000
- Total: four years, $123,200,000

That’s the max allowable of four years, but it includes the max allowable 8% declines each season. As this extension would run through Thompson’s age-34 through age-37 seasons, it’s fair to expect some drop-off in his play. Having the contract mirror that makes sense. If Thompson wants a player option on that final season, that’s fair. Green got one on his new deal, and Andrew Wiggins got one in the extension he signed last summer. If that's the case, the final season would need to be for the same amount as the preceding season. This is because a player option can't be for less salary than the prior season was for. That would boost Thompson's contract to a slight bit more.

For Thompson, this locks in more money than Green got, which seems fair, given his durability and overall impact. It also aligns the team to have Thompson, Curry, Green and Wiggins all signed through at least the 2025-26 seasons.

If it’s more important for the Warriors to keep the tax bill in check right now, especially given the new second apron restrictions, they could structure a traditional deal that looks like this:

- 2024-25: $27,500,000
- 2025-26: $29,700,000
- 2026-27: $31,900,000
- 2027-28: $34,100,000
- Total: four years, $123,200,000

The overall money is exactly the same, but the contract starts lower and goes up the max allowed 8% per year. Again, a player option on the final season is a fair concession by Golden State.

This type of structure would help the Warriors lower their overall team salary into a range where getting under the second apron entirely is possible.

In reality, Golden State and Thompson will likely agree to a total salary number, and then the Warriors can structure the deal in whatever way they deem most beneficial. There are plusses and minuses to both approaches. A lot depends on how much the team cares about dodging the second apron in the immediate, balanced against creating some flexibility further down the line.

In the end, an extension makes the most sense for both Thompson and the Warriors. There’s no reason to make him play out the season in limbo, and possibly creating unnecessary drama approaching free agency in July. For Thompson, sacrificing making the most possible money to lock in security for the remainder of his career makes sense too. Look for both sides to eventually find that middle ground and to get a deal done before the end of the season.

nba next contract series klay thompson klay thompson

NBA Northwest Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithOctober 19, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next week or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Denver Nuggets

Is backup point guard a problem?

The Nuggets starting five is right up there with the best in the NBA. All five players complement each other well and there’s a good mix of offense and defense. Behind them, things get a little shakier. No more so than at backup point guard.

After Denver traded away Monte Morris, this spot was messy last year. Bones Hyland got the primary opportunity, and he was dealt away at the trade deadline, in part because he wasn’t meshing as hoped for. The Nuggets added Reggie Jackson after he worked a buyout, and he re-signed with the team this past offseason, but is Jackson really the answer behind Jamal Murray?

Jackson played in 16 regular season games with Denver last year and he struggled. Jackson couldn’t make shots and wasn’t very good on defense. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the 12-year veteran was only getting garbage time minutes.

The Nuggets gave Jackson the entirety of their $5 million Taxpayer MLE in free agency. That qualified as one of the summer’s more surprising signings. Most had Jackson pegged as a veteran minimum guy. It’s possible that Denver plussed up Jackson’s contract, in exchange for him waiving his ability to block a trade. If so, that makes a lot of sense. His contract could allow Denver to do some things they wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise in trades.

On the court, Jackson could bounce back. 16 games and 319 minutes is hardly a big sample size. And the prior couple of seasons, Jackson was pretty solid in a much bigger role than anyone could have predicted with the LA Clippers.

If Jackson can’t turn it around, Denver is pretty thin at the position. Rookie guard Jalen Pickett could probably give Denver some minutes. Pickett has good size for the position and he’s a solid playmaker. He was a very streaky shooter in college, and rookies are rarely ready defensively. But Pickett comes in as a five-year college player. So, he should be more ready than most rookies to play NBA minutes.

Collin Gillespie is back on a two-way deal, after missing his entire first year with an injury. But he shot it terribly at Summer League and hasn’t hit much better in the preseason. Gillespie’s college profile was that of a good shooter though, so we aren’t going to write him off yet.

In reality, Denver’s offense is different from any other in the NBA. Their primary playmaker is their center. Murray is a point guard in name only, as he makes most of his impact as a scorer and shooter. That lessens the needs for a high-end backup ballhandler. But if Murray needs rest, either in-game or for a night off, someone has to step up. Jackson will get the first opportunity, but don’t be surprised if Pickett ultimately snags the role as Murray’s backup.

What about the rest of the bench?

Denver lost Bruce Brown, who was a key contributor to their title run. They also lost Jeff Green to the Houston Rockets, and Vlatko Cancar will miss this season after a torn ACL over the summer.

Christian Braun will step in as the replacement for Brown. Denver is high on Braun, and he got a lot of experience as a rotation guy on last season’s title team. He looks ready for a bigger role this year.

We covered the backup point guard spot above, but that leaves another forward spot open and a backup big man spot available. The Nuggets are poised to rely on younger players to fill both roles.

Peyton Watson has been the talk of the offseason, and he seems like he’ll get a shot at rotation minutes at the perimeter forward spot. Rookie first-rounder Julian Strawther has been terrific in the preseason, following a strong Summer League. Strawther is going to factor into the rotation sooner, rather than later. Those two will probably wage a head-to-head battle for minutes. Let the best defender, cutter and shooter win.

Behind Nikola Jokic, things are a lot more in question. DeAndre Jordan re-signed for another run, but he’s more of a locker room presence than an on-court one. If pressed into action, Jordan will provide some rugged defense, rebounding and solid screening. But Jordan’s career is closer to the end than his productive prime years.

The Nuggets would love for Zeke Nnaji to seize the backup five role. His shooting ability would be a nice fit on the second unit. But last season was a mess for Nnaji. He battled injuries and some really shaky shooting. Denver needs to see him return to the form of his first two seasons before they can feel good about running him out on the floor for 15 minutes a night.

Justin Holiday was signed to provide some veteran depth, and a shooting presence. He’ll step in if one of the younger wings isn’t quite ready for their role. The Nuggets are also high on Hunter Tyson, who was drafted in the second round. He might see some minutes too, akin to the situations that Strawther and Jalen Pickett are in.

Mostly, if no one steps forward, look for Calvin Booth to swing a trade to fill a hole. It might mean moving on from a younger player or two, but such is life when you’re on top and everyone is trying to take you down.

Minnesota Timberwolves

How will the perimeter rotation shake out?

The Wolves starting group is set with Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley in the backcourt and Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels up front. Behind them, Minnesota has talent, but it might take a bit for roles to become defined. Nowhere is that truer than on the perimeter.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is back, and he’ll grab one wing/guard spot. Newcomers Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton will be in the mix too. Given teams generally start with an expanded rotation, it’s likely all three will play minutes in the early part of the season. Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson are entrenched as the frontcourt backups.

The real question is if Jordan McLaughlin (in and out of the rotation in his four seasons in Minnesota) or Wendell Moore (coming off a forgettable rookie season) can steal rotation roles. McLaughlin is more of a pure point guard than either Alexander-Walker or Milton. Moore needs to make shots to have a chance at seeing some wing minutes. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Minott. He’s got a really intriguing mix of skill and size. He did some things on the G League level that could project to NBA production. He’s a sleeper rotation candidate to watch.

Who is the backup point guard?

We touched on this above, but we’ll expand on it here. This is basically a three-way, and really a two-way, battle between Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Shake Milton and Jordan McLaughlin.

Alexander-Walker spent the first few seasons of his career as a theoretical big point guard. He never quite fit that mold though, and it took until last season for him to really find a foothold in the league. Alexander-Walker leaned into being a 3&D player, who could also do some secondary ballhandling. The Wolves seem to see him more in that role, so we’ll take Alexander-Walker out of the mix behind Mike Conley.

Jordan McLaughlin is the holdover. After flashing late in his pandemic-shortened rookie season, McLaughlin snagged a rotation role in his second year. Unfortunately, each of the last two seasons have seen him backslide some. McLaughlin stopped making his outside shots, in addition to battling a midseason injury last season. If he starts making jumpers again, McLaughlin will use his combination of playmaking ability and pesky defense to force his way back on the floor.

Milton is kind of an opposite of McLaughlin. He’s got more size and he’s a better shooter. But he’s only a so-so playmaker and his defense has never really been more than passable. Milton brings the added benefit of being able to play on the wing, where McLaughlin is more of an on-ball guard.

The guess here is that Milton gets sort of the first crack, as his shooting ability can help open up the floor Anthony Edwards and the Wolves big man. But McLaughlin will crack the rotation at some point. He just makes thing happen. And if McLaughlin makes shots, he’ll be hard to take out of the mix.

Oklahoma City Thunder

What is the rotation going to look like?

Mark Daigneault used his first two seasons as Oklahoma City head coach perfectly. He experimented with lineups and player combinations relentlessly. Even last year, when the Thunder were ahead of schedule as far as being a competitive team, Daigneault kept testing and adjusting his rotation and groupings.

Now, Oklahoma City is here (but hot HERE here just yet) and there are some expectations for this group. That likely means there isn’t as much room for experimentation. But that’s not really a problem. Daigneault knows what talent he has now.

The starting five appears set. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star, Jalen Williams (the wing one) is headed in that direction. Josh Giddey’s funky slashing, do-a-little-of-everything game just fits, while Lu Dort is the team’s perimeter stopper. Chet Holmgren joins them for his delayed rookie season. If preseason is any example, he’s the fifth finger in a pretty well-fit glove.

Behind those five, things are more unsettled. Jaylin Williams (the big one) will be Holmgren’s backup when he gets back from a what seems to be a minor injury. Kenrich Williams is going to find his way on the floor, because he’s too impactful not to. Presumably, Vasilije Micic didn’t come over to sit on the bench, so he’ll snag a backup guard role. And Isaiah Joe brings deadeye shooting to a roster short on that skill.

Maybe it’s that simple. That’s Daigneault’s nine-man rotation. But something says that’s shortsighted. Too many other guys are simply too good to just be completely out of the mix

Ousmane Dieng is all limbs and potential. He’s going to factor in, if for no other reason so OKC can see what they have him. Dieng had some nice games over the final quarter of his rookie season, and the Thunder will want to see if that carries over.

Aaron Wiggins might not jump out at you right away, but if you take a deeper look, you’ll find a lot to like. Wiggins will unleash the occasional highlight jam, but he’s more than that. Wiggins is a good finisher around the rim, and he knocked down 39.3% of his threes last season. He’s also a competitive defender. It’s hard to see him getting completely shelved.

Tre Mann and rookie Cason Wallace are going to put pressure on Micic for backup guard minutes. Mann took a step back with a less consistent role in his second season than he had in his rookie year. But he can still score, and there’s a playmaker in there that’s ready to break out. Wallace is your typical Kentucky guard. He’s a little shaky on offense, but you get the feeling he can do more than he showed while in college. And you love the toughness, the defensive tenacity and the willingness to mix it up on the boards, despite a lack of size. He just screams that he’ll find his way on the floor eventually.

If we count in the top-nine guys and combine them with Dieng, Wiggins, Mann and Wallace, we’re already at 13 guys. And we haven’t even touched on Davis Bertans (a prototypical Thunder reclamation project) and Aleksej Pokusevski (currently injured and in danger of becoming an unrealized project).

In a very real sense, Oklahoma City has 15 guys who can play. That’s incredible considering this team was torn down to the studs just a couple of years ago. But the days of all 15 guys playing somewhat regularly, because the team was mixing and matching game to game, are over. Look for the top-nine we called out to be the regulars, with the others slotting in as matchups, injuries or ineffectiveness open up minutes.

That means Mark Daigneault might be having some difficult conversations, but he’s up for it. And, more importantly, minutes will be fully earned on this team moving forward. That’s an exciting place for a franchise to be in as they go from rebuilding to competing.

Who gets cut?

The Thunder have taken care of this to some extent throughout the course of the offseason. They moved on from Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington, after acting as a clearinghouse for their contracts this summer. Both have potential, but the rest of the league wasn’t as all over either player as suggested, as both Garuba and Washington are on two-way deals now.

Oklahoma City further cleaned things up by trading Victor Oladipo (really his $9.45 million contract) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to the Houston Rockets. In exchange, the Thunder waive Kevin Porter Jr. and ate his contract, while picking up two more future second-round picks for Sam Presti’s stash. Oladipo might have been an easy cut, but Robinson-Earl has played real minutes for the Thunder and they might not wanted to have moved on simply by waiving him.

That leaves one tough cut to make. At this point, it looks like Jack White could be the one on the outside looking in. The Thunder thought highly enough of White to give him $600,000 in guaranteed money this summer. Maybe the thought was that something would open up to keep him around. As of this writing, that hasn’t happened. It’s hard to see the team waiving anyone else.

Maybe, and it’s a major maybe, the team is ready to move on from Aleksej Pokusevski. The developmental minutes that Pokusevski needs no longer seem available. He also doesn’t seem to be in line for a contract extension. If the Thunder are done waiting on his potential, Poku’s days could be numbered.

We’ll guess it’s White, which is somewhat unfortunate. His guarantee is too large for him to play for Oklahoma City’s G League affiliate. That means White will be off elsewhere for next season. But it just seems like the team won’t ties with Pokusevski…yet.

Portland Trail Blazers

Who is the fifth starter?

Four starting spots are spoken for in Portland. Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are going to start in the backcourt. Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant are starting up front. That means the wing spot is up for grabs.

Shaedon Sharpe has the most long-term potential, but that would leave the Blazers starting three guards. That means they’ll be undersized and lacking some defense. A lineup of Henderson, Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton will hopefully see lots of minutes, but it might not open games.

That means Matisse Thybulle is probably the best bet to start games. He’s easily the best defensive player on the roster. Yes, that’s a low bar to clear, but Thybulle leaps over it with ease anyway. And in 22 games with Portland, Thybulle shot 38.8% on 3.9 three-point attempts per game. That’s really, really intriguing.

The defense will probably get Thybulle the first crack at the starting spot, but the shooting will keep him in it. If he regresses as a shooter, and defenses start making things too hard on Ayton to work in the paint and to easy to collapse on Henderson drives, Sharpe might wedge his way in there.

There’s also a slight chance that Chauncy Billups might want to go big and will start Robert Williams next to Ayton, while pushing Grant to the three. That’s worth experimenting with, but probably not as a starting group. That would really shrink the floor a lot, and that makes life harder than it needs to be on Henderson and Simons to get the offensive moving. But for a few minutes here and there, it’s worth checking out.

One last thing to keep an eye on, but further down the line: Sharpe starting over Simons. There are some who believe that Simons best role on a winning team will be as a high-volume sixth man. Think Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams. This space isn’t going to tell you that Simons should go to the bench. We’re big fans of his. But if Portland wants to experiment late in a lottery season, they could give it a shot.

Could the bench be a strength?

Either Shaedon Sharpe or Matisse Thybulle is going to come off the bench. We’re guessing Robert Williams will do the same. Malcolm Brogdon is going to play too, for however long he’s in Portland. Kris Murray has some potential as a ready-to-play rookie, and Jabari Walker flashed at times as a rookie.

Even if it’s just the Sharpe/Thybulle non-starter, Williams and Brogdon that contribute as reserves, that’s pretty good. That’s better than some playoff teams will feature. There’s even a chance that we could see Portland’s starting group bleed points, while the backups come in and cut into leads. Both lineups are built for that sort of potential.

If nothing else, on the nights when the Blazers starters do hand off a lead, the bench shouldn’t immediately hand it back. That’s always a positive on a young team, as it keeps from frustration creeping in. Frustration with holding leads often ends up in younger players taking on a Thanos-like approach of “Fine. I’ll do it myself.” And that never leads anywhere good, whether it be for young players or Thanos.

Utah Jazz

What does the guard rotation look like?

The Utah Jazz have a lot of guys who can play. For a team in Year 2 of a rebuild, Utah is pretty well stocked. Most know the frontcourt is deep in options, but the guard group is actually even more of an open competition.

After Mike Conley was traded at the deadline, the most-common starting guards were Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker. They are both back, as is Collin Sexton, who suffered through an injury-plagued season. Kris Dunn, who experience a major career rejuvenation, is also returning. That’s already four-deep, but there’s more.

Ochai Agbaji is a pure wing, but most of his minutes came at the two, as part of jumbo-sized lineups. And Keyonte George looks like he’s going to make it very hard to keep him off the floor as a rookie.

If we take Agbaji out of the mix and assume he’ll see more minutes at the three this year, that’s still five guys for four spots. Injuries might open up minutes for someone, but this a delicate situation for Will Hardy to sort through.

Horton-Tucker is on an expiring deal, as is Dunn. They’re both going to want chances to show what they can do. Sexton has three years left on his contract, and Clarkson added two years to his deal too. That makes them at least somewhat a part of the longer-term future in Utah. It’s also safe to assume the Jazz are going to want to see what they have in George at some point.

It’s been rumored that teams have called on Horton-Tucker. Moving him could add to Danny Ainge’s already overflowing treasure chest of draft picks, while opening up minutes in the backcourt. After four years, it’s clear that Horton-Tucker is a solid all-around player, but he’s a “jack of all trades, master of none” guy. And his lack of shooting won’t allow him to play the on-ball minutes he needs on a good team. If someone has to move out of the rotation, and Dunn’s offense from last season carries over, Horton-Tucker makes sense as the odd man out.

For now, Hardy can keep mixing and matching, while spotting guys rest days here and there. But that will wear thin relatively quickly. Figuring out which guards complement a talented frontcourt long-term is near the top of the to-do list for this season.

Will the rookies get to play?

We touched on it above with Keyonte George, but it’s going to be just as hard for Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh to find minutes. It’s no longer a guarantee in the NBA that first-round-pick status means you get entitlement minutes. Teams don’t function that way anymore, unless they are really bad, or at the end of a lost season.

That means George, Hendricks and Sensabaugh will have earned any minutes they get. That’s not a bad thing, as you want to them to have to compete from Day 1. But young players, who have been stars or main cogs for their entire lives, can get frustrated if they are sitting game after game.

We already covered how George will have to fight his way through a crowded guard group. If Hendricks wants to play, he’ll have to show that he can do it at the three. Walker Kessler will play all of his minutes at the five, but the four will feature some combination of John Collins (in the big starting group), Lauri Markkanen (in smaller, more traditional lineups) and Kelly Olynyk (when he’s not backing up Kessler). That leaves very little room for Hendricks to play what looks like his natural position.

But if Hendricks can defend on the perimeter enough, shoot it well enough and do a little bit of ballhandler, he can find minutes behind Markkanen at the three. Because he missed Summer League with an injury, we’ve only seen some small preseason glimpses of Hendricks. He very much remains a mystery box.

As for Sensabaugh, it’s hard to see how he’ll see many minutes as a rookie. He’s played even less than Hendricks. Barring something unexpected, it’s a good bet that Sensabaugh sees more minutes in the G League than the NBA this season.

Again, it’s not a bad thing if the Jazz rookies aren’t gifted minutes right out of the gate. But if you were expecting to see immediate fruits from this draft class, you’re going to be disappointed. There’s a good deal of ripening that will need to happen, maybe even a full season’s worth. But it should pay off with three good players that can fill rotation holes as the roster evolves over the next few years.

nba denver nuggets minnesota timberwolves oklahoma city thunder portland trail blazers utah jazz denver nuggets minnesota timberwolves oklahoma city thunder portland trail blazers utah jazz

NBA Central Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithOctober 12, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Chicago Bulls

Who starts at point guard?

The Bulls will be without Lonzo Ball for the entirety of the 2023-24 season. Ball is recovering from another knee surgery, but this time there is optimism he’ll make it back for the start of next season.

Until then, Chicago needs someone to play point guard.

The lead guard position for the Bulls doesn’t have to be your traditional playmaker. Billy Donovan runs a lot of his offense through DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Ayo Dosunmu started for most of last season, with Patrick Beverley taking over after being added during buyout season. Neither of them is really a pure point guard.

Dosunmu is back this season, as is Coby White, after both young guards re-signed with the Bulls this summer. Chicago also added Jevon Carter in free agency. Alex Caruso (who has shifted away from point guard reps over the years) and Carlik Jones are also returning.

We can probably eliminate the latter two from this competition. Caruso is the Bulls version of a utility player in baseball. He’ll play a lot by playing a little bit of everything. Jones is coming off an impressive summer with South Sudan at the FIBA World Cup, but he remains very unproven at the NBA level. He’s still a developmental project for Chicago.

That leaves a three-way tussle between Dosunmu, White and Carter. All have reasons to believe in them, while also having reasons to question them.

Dosunmu has started 91 of his first 157 NBA games. He’s got the experience alongside DeRozan and LaVine. He knows his role is to defend, function as a secondary or tertiary creator and to make shots when open. It’s that last part where things went sideways last season. After hitting an exciting 37.6% from deep as a rookie, Dosunmu fell off to a terrible 31.2% in his second year. If he’s not making shots, he can’t play regularly. Someone needs to open the floor for DeRozan and LaVine.

The potential good news? As a freshman at Illinois, Dosunmu hit 35.2% of his triples, before falling off to just 29.6% as a sophomore. In his junior year, Dosunmu bounced back to hit 38.6% from behind the arc. If he can experience a similar bounce-back as a third-year of NBA play, Dosunmu might win back his starting job.

White got the start in the Bulls first preseason game. He’s 23 years old now and has four NBA seasons under his belt. White has also been pretty durable, so he has a good amount of experience.

The downside? White’s role has been all over the place in his four-year career. As a rookie, he was an on-ball scoring option off the bench. He was inefficient, but that’s true of most rookies. As a second-year player, White was the team’s starting point guard. He showed signs of improving his playmaking ability, while his efficiency took the expected upturn.

With Ball joining the team, White went back to the bench role in Year 3. He was even more efficient, but his playing time and number of shots both took a marked downturn. Year 4 was easily White’s most efficient scoring season, but he played and shot the least amount in his NBA career.

Now, the door seems open for White to take back the starting point guard spot. His shooting from behind the arc has stabilized. He hits for a solid percentage on a pretty good volume of three-pointers. White is also the best at creating his own shots, or shots for others, out of the threesome competing for the starting gig.

The one thing Donovan and staff will be looking to see from White is better defense. As reserve, some of his “Ole!” style of swiping for a steal and then waiting for an outlet pass, can be overlooked. A lot of scoring guards play that way off the bench. As a starter, White needs to freelance less and he has to be competitive. The tools are there, he just has to harness them.

Harnessing defensive ability is no problem for Carter. He’s one of the best on-ball pests in the NBA. Few players are as adept at picking up full court and harassing an opposing ballhandler. Carter isn’t a steal merchant. He’s just always there, a constant annoyance for the guy he’s guarding.

Carter is also the best shooter of this group, as he’s a tick under 40% from deep for his career. Carter’s entire NBA run has also been as a spot-up guy, playing off teammates. That’s a good skill for Chicago, considering DeRozan and LaVine will run the show there.

The challenge with Carter starting is that he hasn’t done it much. He’s started 48 games in five years, and 39 of those starts came last season. That might be one of those situations where we don’t know how a guy will hold up until he gets a shot, but it’s enough of a question that the Bulls will think about it. There’s also the fact that both White and Dosunmu have some organizational cache built up, which matters more than many think.

The guess here is that White takes the job. As long as he defends enough, he should be able to keep it. But Dosunmu has started as recently as last year, and Carter is around. None of the three should feel overly comfortable, even if they start on opening night. And that’s probably best for the Bulls for keeping all of them on their toes.

Who is the backup power forward?

Patrick Williams is going to start at the four again. That’s fine, even if he might still ideally be more of a wing. But Chicago does enough with him, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine switching and matching up defensively, that it probably doesn’t matter.

What does matter is who is backing up Williams. That spot seems to be wide open.

Last season, Billy Donovan picked from a grab bag of Javonte Green, Derrick Jones Jr. and the decidedly not-a-four Alex Caruso behind Williams. Caruso is back, but he recently spoke that playing the four takes a toll on him and it’s something he and Bulls would like to avoid, given his overall importance to the roster.

This year the backup minutes at the four will probably fall mostly to Torrey Craig. And that’s probably a big upgrade over last season, given Caruso will be able to contribute more behind DeRozan and Lavine.

Craig was one of the better value signings of the summer, as the Bulls got him on a two-year, veteran minimum deal. Although Craig is a prototypical small forward, he’s logged plenty of time as a small-ball power forward. Last season might have been an outlier, as Craig hit 39.5% of his threes. If that repeats, Chicago will be thrilled with Craig as the ideal Williams backup.

What makes Craig ideal is the way the Bulls play. As mentioned above, they kind of treat Williams, DeRozan and LaVine as a trio on defense. Williams takes the best perimeter guy, with DeRozan and LaVine taking the lesser threats. Even when the opponent plays with two bigs, Williams is generally still on the best perimeter option, with DeRozan guarding up a spot.

Craig can do what Williams does on defense, albeit with a bit less size. If he’s making shots at a nearly 40% clip, that’s a pretty good replication of Williams too.

The one challenge comes if there are injuries elsewhere. If a wing goes down, and Craig is pressed into service there, then there isn’t a good option behind Williams on the roster. That could be a place where some of the point guard depth is traded to plug that hole. Something to keep an eye on into the middle of the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Who is the fifth starter?

Assuming Jarrett Allen’s ankle injury doesn’t keep him out for too long, the Cavs have four of five starters set. Allen will be joined by Evan Mobley up front, and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are the starting backcourt. It’s that middle spot at small forward that is up for grabs.

Last season, the fifth spot was split somewhat equally between Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro, with a sprinkling of Dean Wade mixed in. All three are back in Cleveland, along with Max Strus, who has started 41 playoff games over each of the last two postseasons.

LeVert and Wade are probably out of the mix to start. LeVert has found a really good role coming off the Cavaliers bench. He gets to handle the ball a lot in that role, and can kind of do his thing as a primary option on the second unit. Wade isn’t really a small forward, and he might find far more usage as a backup big option. The Cavs are a little light behind Allen and Mobley, which could press Wade into option up front.

That leaves Okoro vs Strus. Okoro has the organizational cache. He’s been there for three years, he’s a slightly better defender (with the tools to be a much better defender) and he did make shots last year. But it’s that last part where things swing decidedly toward Strus.

Okoro has experience a steady upward climb in his shooting, going from 29% to 35% to 36.3% year over year. Strus, on the other hand, was at 41% and 35% from deep the last two seasons, on a volume well over double that of Okoro’s.

If the Cavs are hellbent on opening up the floor more, they’ll start Strus. He simply carries gravity that Okoro doesn’t. Defenses bend towards Strus, whereas they flex away from Okoro. If Cleveland stays with the status quo, and wants the better defender on the floor, they’ll stick with Okoro.

One last consideration: Strus came to Cleveland via a four-year, $62.3 million sign-and-trade. Okoro is in the final year of his rookie scale deal. Strus can fit on a roster featuring Okoro or not, but the contracts could be a sign that Cleveland is moving away from the former fifth overall pick.

Who wins the final roster spot?

As of this writing, Cleveland has 14 players signed to standard contracts. They have four players battling in training camp for that final spot, assuming the Cavaliers fill it at all.

Of that group, Sharife Cooper might have a slight edge, and it’s got little to do with production. Instead, it’s about position.

Cooper is a point guard. As it stands right now, Cleveland is really light at the point guard position. Darius Garland is an All-Star-level guy, but there just isn’t a lot behind him.

Ricky Rubio remains away from the team, as he continues to work on a personal issue that arose over the summer. The Cavs have expressed support for Rubio and are giving him all the time and space he needs. That’s exactly the way it should be.

But that means someone has to step up behind Garland in the interim. Ty Jerome will get the first shot. He’s played as a point guard plenty in his career, even if he’s more of a combo guard. Considering guys like Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert will have the ball plenty when Jerome is on the floor, the fifth-year Virginia product should be just fine.

But that leaves the third point guard spot open. Craig Porter is on a two-way deal, and he’ll get the first crack at any available minutes. He was a Summer League standout, but had exactly one season of high-volume production at Wichita State. He’s got a lot to prove, and a lot of G League time is necessary.

And that brings us back to Cooper. He’s small and his NBA experience is negligible, but Cooper has stood out in the G League. If Cleveland needs someone until Rubio is back, converting Cooper to a standard non-guaranteed contract, is probably the way forward for some additional point guard depth.

Detroit Pistons

How do they get Ausar Thompson minutes?

The Pistons are sending signs that this question could be resolved by opening night. Monty Williams seems likely to shoehorn Thompson into the rotation, including in a possible starting spot.

You read that right. Despite Detroit having a lot of varying talent on the wing, Thompson might start right out of the gate.

It was one preseason game, and one where some regulars were out, but Thompson started and held his own. He didn’t shoot it well, and that’s going to be a major question for him until it isn’t, but Thompson did a lot of everything else. He scored 12 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, dished out six assists and blocked a shot.

That production mirrored what Thompson did in four Summer League games. He also displayed that chaotic energy on defense, where he’s kind of everywhere all at once. That was also a carryover from Summer League.

But when games matter, is Thompson really going to start over established guys like Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks or Joe Harris? Is he going to leapfrog young players like Jaden Ivey or Isaiah Livers?

It seems like the answer is: kind of.

Bogdanovic is still going to play, and he’s probably going to start. Cade Cunningham has the most upside, but Bogdanovic is still Detroit’s best player. Burks is going to play, and there should be room for both him and Thompson in the rotation. What happens with Harris is really interesting. He’s the best pure shooter on the roster, and the Pistons can use that skill. But he’s on an expiring deal and probably not a part of the future in Detroit. If he’s out of the rotation to open the year, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

The Pistons are making noise about playing Ivey off the bench, despite the fact that he started 73 games as a rookie. Maybe it’s a way to make sure Ivey still gets on-ball reps with Cunningham back. Maybe it’s all subterfuge and he’ll start on opening night. For now, it’s something to watch. And Livers seems more like he’s in the frontcourt mix as a small-ball four than he is a part of the wing rotation.

Thompson is overflowing with upside. Detroit probably isn’t going to be very good this season. That combination necessitates him playing as much as he can handle. And it seems like the Pistons will make sure that happens.

Who gets the third two-way spot?

We’ll keep this relatively short. Detroit has filled two of their two-way spots with undrafted Malcolm Cazalon and the returning Jared Rhoden. Both of those guys are wings, which makes for an interesting competition for the third two-way spot.

Buddy Boeheim is back after being on a two-way last year, but he’s another wing. Same is true of Stanley Umude, who did a 10-day run with Detroit last year. Tosan Evbuomwan is also in camp, and he’s a bigger wing, but he’s still another wing.

That kind of seems like the competition could be between big man Jontay Porter, who has done a few different NBA stints, and guard Zavier Simpson.

Porter still has some of that prospect tag attached to him. He’ll turn 24 in late-November, but there’s still intrigue with a near 7-footer who can step out and shoot it some, while rebounding and blocking shots on the other end.

Simpson is a G League veteran, and he was terrific in the minors last year. His lack of size seems to be all that is holding him back from landing a full NBA spot. If the Pistons want some additional point guard depth, Simpson would be nice to have on a two-way deal.

We don’t really have a prediction here. Evbuomwan is probably the most interesting player, given he’s still pretty unknown. Porter probably has the most upside, while Simpson is probably the most ready-to-contribute guy in the mix. Let the best man win.

Indiana Pacers

Who starts?

We can ink Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner into the Pacers starting lineup. That means the poles are taken care of. In between the point and the center, everything seems to be up for grabs.

Last season, the Pacers went small around Turner. They played a mixture of guards and wings, with Buddy Hield, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith the most common starters. All three of those players are back, along with last season’s sixth man Bennedict Mathurin. And the Pacers added Bruce Brown to that mix in free agency.

Indiana also added bigger options in trading for Obi Toppin and drafting Jarace Walker. And that’s where things get interesting for Rick Carlisle.

Hield might be out of the mix to open the season. He requested a trade after extension talks broke down, and the Pacers are trying to accommodate him. Even if he’s still with the team to open the year, Hield might see his role reduced in favor of longer-term options.

This offseason, Maturin said the team told him he would start this season. We’ll take him at his word, and plug him into one spot. Considering Mathurin is very much a swing player, that leaves a backcourt and possible frontcourt spot open.

It seems likely that Indiana will be a bit more traditional this season, because they have the talent to do so. That’s why we’re leaning towards Brown and Toppin joining Haliburton, Turner and Mathurin in the starting five.

Brown was given $45 million this summer ($22 million guaranteed). That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to start, but it doesn’t not mean that either. In a more compelling case, Brown’s mix of defense, on- and off-ball offensive ability and his shooting are a terrific fit with the Pacers other starters.

Toppin is the best four on the roster right now. Maybe Walker overtakes him, but that’s a down-the-line thing. Toppin’s entire profile has been screaming for a bigger role throughout his three years in New York. That was never going to come with Julius Randle entrenched in front of him, so Toppin is now in Indiana. Given Haliburton’s excitement about the addition, we feel good saying Toppin will claim the fifth starting spot, and will give Indiana a real four in the lineup.

None of this is to suggest that Nembhard (who the Pacers love), Nesmith (who finally stayed healthy last year) and Walker (who the team gushes over) won’t get their chances. Indiana remains high on all of them, and they’ll all factor in, whether they start or not.

Related: How do the Pacers get Jarace Walker enough minutes?

Indiana acquired Obi Toppin after drafting Jarace Walker, but that was about seizing a good buy-low opportunity more than it was anything about the rookie forward. Talk to anyone with the Pacers and they’ll inevitably express a great deal of excitement about Walker.

That means he’s going to get on the floor. But how is the question. Indiana has a lot of NBA guys on their roster. If they don’t trade Buddy Hield, there are about 12 guys who could be in the mix for real minutes. That’s a lot of guys, and Walker is going to have to beat out several of them to play.

On one hand, if Toppin starts, Walker looks like the ideal backup power forward. And “backup” is sort of in name only here, as they could very well split the playing time at the four pretty evenly. If Rick Carlisle stays with multiple wings and guards around Myles Turner, things could get a little messy for both Toppin and Walker to play.

Neither is a real option at center. Walker could feature in some lineups on the wing, but he profiles as a smaller four right now. But it doesn’t really matter all that much, Walker’s talent is going to get him on the floor eventually.

As stated above, Toppin is our pick to start next to Turner up front. But if Toppin doesn’t grab that role fully, then Walker might snatch it from him. His shot is shaky, but Walker is ready to do everything else. In a system where the Pacers want to run, his grab-and-go ability will be as prized as Toppin’s ability to fill the lane in transition.

Look for Walker to get eased in somewhat. But that doesn’t mean a small number of minutes. It’s more about him not starting right away. Starting might eventually come, but the Pacers prized rookie forward is going to force his way on the floor no matter what.

Milwaukee Bucks

Who is the backup point guard?

If your biggest offseason question is about a 15-minute-a-night backup, you’re probably in pretty good shape. And the Bucks are certainly in pretty great shape. Yet, a pre-trade question still remains a valid one.

Damian Lillard is going to start at point guard. He’ll probably play somewhere around 33 minutes a night. That’s less than he’s played in recent years, but Milwaukee has big goals and they tend to not put too much on their key guys in the regular season.

Behind Lillard, as it was behind Jrue Holiday, is a question. Prior to the trade, the Bucks would likely have swung Grayson Allen over to the on-ball role behind Holiday. But both of them went out in the trade for Lillard, leaving the backup point guard just as big of a question.

Milwaukee did well to sign Cameron Payne after the trade, and he’ll clearly get the first shot at the backup role. But he’s coming off two shaky seasons in a row, after an outstanding first full year with the Phoenix Suns. Payne hasn’t shot it or finished quite as well over the last couple of years, which was an issue when the Suns had to press him into a bigger role with Chris Paul out.

Still, Payne will probably be fine behind Lillard…when he’s available. If Payne has injuries again, that’s where things get really questionable for the Bucks. There isn’t another proven point guard on the roster.

We aren’t going to overreact, because Milwaukee can run most of their offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton if they need to. At that point, they can stick any capable shooter on the floor, and it’s probably fine.

The biggest issue could actually be defensively. Holiday was a top-tier defender, and the Bucks don’t have that anymore. Lillard’s offense will make up for any defensive drop-off. But behind him, they don’t even have that terrific change-of-pace guy, as Jevon Carter left in free agency.

Maybe Marjon Beauchamp puts it all together and snags a rotation role. Lindell Wigginton, TyTy Washington and Omari Moore are really interesting guys, but being on two-way deals limits how much they can play. This space is a big fan of A.J. Green, but he’s not really an on-ball stopper. And Andre Jackson Jr. is really fun, but that’s asking a lot of a rookie wing.

Much like with questions we asked of other contenders, we’ll leave this one in the “Not a problem until it is” category. But it’s still worth monitoring.

Related: Will Marjon Beauchamp see real minutes?

Marjon Beauchamp was as advertised a rookie. The size and athleticism show up regularly, but he wasn’t ready for real minutes on a contender.

As a second-year player, the Bucks might need Beauchamp to be a lot more ready.

Milwaukee’s wing and guard rotations were hit this offseason through free agent departures and trades. That’s left some openings for guys to step in. The Bucks would love for Beauchamp to snag a rotation role this year.

Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton are assured of rotation minutes. Middleton will start when he plays, and Connaughton may grab the fifth starter spot that opened up from the Damian Lillard trade. Malik Beasley could start instead of Connaughton, and he’s going to play a lot either as a starter or off the bench.

From there, it’s a lot more up in the air. Jae Crowder seems more like a four than a wing at this point, and that’s fine for what the Bucks need him to do. That’s especially true, as Bobby Portis is the primary backup center.

All of that leaves Beauchamp battling guys like A.J. Green, Andre Jackson Jr. and maybe Chris Livingston for minutes. Green has the best standout skill of that group with his shooting, but it’s still a very close competition.

The guess here is that it’s Beauchamp vs Jackson for the backup wing minutes that are available. If Beauchamp can shoot it a little better, and that’s a big if, he’s probably got the advantage. He did log 701 NBA minutes last season, where Jackson is coming in as a rookie.

But Jackson has an intriguing mix of all-around skills. If Jackson could shoot, we’d lock him in for backup wing minutes. But it’s that lack of a shot that puts him in competition with Beauchamp.

It’s not make-or-break time for Beauchamp by any means. But he did just turn 23 and isn’t exactly a super young prospect anymore. He’s got this season plus two more on his rookie scale deal, so there’s still a little time. But if Beauchamp doesn’t seize a rotation role this season, Milwaukee might need to start thinking about him in terms of being a tradable piece to fill that rotation hole that he couldn’t.

nba chicago bulls cleveland cavaliers detroit pistons milwaukee bucks indiana pacers chicago bulls cleveland cavaliers detroit pistons indiana pacers milwaukee bucks

NBA Pacific Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithOctober 10, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Southeast Division and Southwest Division teams.

Golden State Warriors

Will Chris Paul start?

This is one of the most fascinating questions in the entire NBA. The Warriors acquiring Chris Paul was somewhat of a no-brainer. They turned Jordan Poole’s long-term deal into a pseudo-expiring contract that is far more tradable. But before a trade comes, if one even does, Paul is going to play for Golden State. But will he start or come off the bench?

It’s way too easy to assume either option is the answer. Paul has always been a starter. He’s played in 1,214 regular season games and 149 playoff games. Paul has been on the floor for the opening tip for all 1,363 of them.

On the flip side, the Warriors have a productive starting five that is pretty well-balanced positionally and with offense and defense. Why would Steve Kerr mess with that?

In the short-term, it seems like this question will be answered by Draymond Green being out. Green suffered an ankle sprain that may keep him out for the start of the regular season. That opens the door to avoid some awkwardness, at least early on.

But Green will be back. Then what?

Many have looked at Kerr’s regular starting lineup and decided that Kevon Looney is the least-accomplished Warrior and decided he’d go to the bench. But Looney is easily Golden State’s best rebounder, probably their best night-to-night interior defender (Green doesn’t bring it every night in the regular season anymore) and arguably their best screener. Shuttling him to the bench puts a ton of pressure on Green to do a lot on defense.

So, maybe Paul goes to the bench? That’d be a different role for him, but others have accepted such a transition as their career has gone along. Dwyane Wade, who is one of Paul’s good friends, came off the bench for the majority of each of his final two seasons. And he did it at roughly the same age Paul is now. And, finally, Wade didn’t exactly do it on a title contender in his final season, which made his sacrifice even more noteworthy.

Paul could help stabilize bench units, which have often bled points and leads during the Warriors title-contention run. And it would help Kerr keep Paul’s minutes in check, which should hopefully keep him fresher and productive into the springtime, when games matter most.

Either option will require a heavy dose of buy-in. From an established Warrior or from Paul. Maybe Golden State is at the point where someone will always be out with some sort of malady. That would also take care of the issue, without anyone having to be benched. But if this season goes the way the Warriors want, they’ll need everyone available. At that point, someone will have to sacrifice for the best of the team and a run at a title.

Will Brandin Podziemski play?

Golden State’s bench has been a revolving door for several years now. Young players haven’t developed into rotation regulars as hoped for, while veteran signings have been pretty hit-or-miss. This season, the Warriors seem to have some pretty good options, especially on the wing. Gary Payton will see most of his minutes in an off-ball perimeter role. Moses Moody is knocking on the door of a bigger role. Cory Joseph has played off-ball quite a bit, and Jonathan Kuminga will see some minutes at the three.

Where does that leave rookie Brandin Podziemski? Probably on the bench, or playing for Santa Cruz in the G League. He’s got an interesting mix of all-around skills though. Despite not shooting it well at Summer League, Podziemski flashed his mix of scoring, rebounding and playmaking ability. He could bring a bit of everything off the bench.

But he’s a rookie and the Warriors have title aspirations. The key will be to work Podziemski in where they can. Golden State can’t continue to let former first-round picks sort of whither on the vine. They have to start developing some of them into real rotation players. Both Kuminga and Moody seem to be finally turning that corner, but that’s not a 100% thing. Former second overall pick James Wiseman never got there. Podziemski has skills that can help Golden State, but he needs to get a chance and to make the most of it. Otherwise, he’s going to be another guy that we’ll all just keep waiting on, like others before him.

LA Clippers

Are some veterans going to be out of the rotation?

The Clippers have been lauded for their depth over the last few years. Most seasons started with it looking like LA had at least 10-12 guys who could play real rotation minutes. With injury and load management issues, the Clippers needed all of them too.

Now, things have started to swing in another direction. The Clippers increased Terance Mann’s role as last season went along, they added Bones Hyland for point guard depth at the trade deadline, and this summer the team traded for K.J. Martin to plus-up the frontcourt. The team also likes holdovers Brandon Boston Jr. and Amir Coffey quite a bit too.

Where does that leave vets like Nic Batum, Marcus Morris and Robert Covington? At least one of them, and probably two, aren’t going to see many minutes. Batum and Morris saw their roles lessened as the season went along, while Covington saw the fewest minutes he’s had in a healthy season since his rookie year.

With Clippers signaling that they won’t be nearly as aggressive with load managing their stars, minutes are going to be at a premium. If younger players are seeing those reserve minutes, the vets will be pushed to lesser roles.

Unless, of course, a James Harden trade saps LA of some of their depth. Then all bets are off and the rotation will need to be rebuilt on the fly.

Who is the backup point guard?

The point guard position has been a messy one for the Clippers for a while now. Russell Westbrook came in during buyout season and stabilized the starting spot. But the minutes behind him remain a question.

Terance Mann has played a lot in the lead guard spot, but he seems ticketed for a bigger role in Ty Lue’s three-wing lineups alongside Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Bones Hyland would seemingly be the answer, but his role was fairly limited after LA acquired him at the trade deadline.

The guess here is that Hyland gets the first shot at playing behind Westbrook. The Clippers can use the early months of the season to evaluate Hyland’s play, and if they need to upgrade, that will be a trade deadline priority. Mann will probably see some on-ball reps too, because there’s a comfort level there with him.

And, like the above question, a Harden trade could throw all of this out of whack.

Los Angeles Lakers

Who is the fifth starter?

The Lakers have four starting spots spoken for with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell inked in. The fifth spot offers a lot of options, not just with players, but with style of play too.

It’s no secret Davis doesn’t like playing center. That could lead to a second big starting games, even if almost everyone seems to recognize that Los Angeles is at their best with Davis at the five. If the Lakers go this way, Jarred Vanderbilt is an option, as is Christian Wood or possibly Jaxson Hayes. Vanderbilt started a lot for the Lakers after being acquired at the trade deadline. Wood was an established starter before a messy season in Dallas. And Hayes would be one of those “start, sub out five minutes in and doesn’t return” guys in each half.

If the Lakers go a little smaller, Rui Hachimura or Taurean Prince seem to have the leg up on the competition. Hachimura reportedly prepared this offseason as if he’d start. And the Lakers paid him like a starting option. Prince has a long history of starting, and he’d bring a little more shooting to the opening group, along with decent size. Either would be an acceptable option, with Hachimura probably ahead of Prince.

If the Lakers go a lot smaller, they could slide everyone up a position and open games with Gabe Vincent. That shifts Russell into even more of a scoring role, where he’s more comfortable. And Vincent is best option for defending opposing point guards on the roster.

Ultimately, this is going to come down to Darvin Ham finding balance for his players and lineups. There are a lot of options, and this might involve some experimentation before Ham finds the right mix.

Who settles in as the primary backup shooting guard?

As much as the Lakers have options for their fifth starter, they don’t have a lot of depth in the backcourt. And that’s sort of funny, considering this team was so guard-heavy last season.

All of the options are relatively unproven. Cam Reddish is on team number four in five seasons. He’s never quite put it together enough to hold down a regular rotation role. Max Christie is heading into his second season. His rookie year was fairly ho-hum, but Christie was productive in the G League and terrific in Summer League. He could be poised for a breakout year.

The other options are rookies Jalen Hood-Schifino and Maxwell Lewis. Hood-Schifino has primarily been an on-ball player, and he’s a really iffy scorer and shooter. Lewis looks like he’s ready to score and shoot, but he’s in over his head with everything else. If either of these rookies is playing major minutes for the Lakers, they were either better than expected, or a lot went wrong for Los Angeles.

The guess here is that Reddish gets the first shot, simply because he’s the veteran option. But Christie looks like he has the best mix of offensive skills, along with being a helpful perimeter defender. Look for him to win the role before long.

Phoenix Suns

Who is the fifth starter?

The Suns have four of their starters locked in with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic. The fifth spot is wide open, and it’s a key one.

Josh Okogie started the first preseason game and new coach Frank Vogel praised what he brings to the floor. In an opening group full of offense-first guys, Okogie can focus on defense and moving the ball. One challenge with starting Okogie is that the Suns end up being somewhat small. It’s not all that major of a problem, but it does task Durant with doing more as a pick-and-roll defender and on the interior. That could add wear and tear that Phoenix would rather avoid putting on him in the regular season.

If being that small proves to be a problem, Vogel could turn to Keita Bates-Diop to start. It went mostly unnoticed as he toiled for the unwatched Spurs, but Bates-Diop put up 51/39/79 shooting splits last season on decent volume. If that three-point shooting is even remotely real, the Suns got a steal for the veteran minimum.

Other options could include Yuta Watanabe, but his all-gas, no-brake energy is a huge plus off the bench. Nassir Little could be an option, as he’s played as a small four in the past. But he’ll need some time to settle in after being acquired right before camp started. Grayson Allen could also get a look, if the Suns really lean into the offense and want another ballhandler on the floor.

Bet on a mix between Okogie and Bates-Diop. They both provide defense, along with being content to play without the ball on offense. Those are desired skills, in a top-heavy lineup of offensive stars.

Who is the backup point guard?

Phoenix is committed to playing without a pure point guard in the starting lineup. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have all been offensive hubs before, so that shouldn’t be a big problem. When Deandre Ayton was still with the Suns, it might have gotten tricky to make sure a bunch of score-first guys fed him enough touches. With Jusuf Nurkic, and his more-versatile skillset in town, that’s less of a worry.

Behind the openers, the Suns backup point guard spot remains in flux. Grayson Allen has played a decent amount on-ball, so he’ll be in the mix. Eric Gordon has primarily been an off-ball guy, but he could be in for a late-career expansion of his playmaking duties.

The best pure point guard option is Jordan Goodwin, who Phoenix did well to acquire in the Beal-Chris Paul swap. Goodwin fought his way to a standard contract by outplaying his two-way status. In a group of imperfect options, he’s the best point guard defender and the one with the most lead guard experience. Look for Goodwin to eventually emerge as a key rotation piece.

Sacramento Kings

How does the perimeter rotation shake out?

The Kings are mostly running back last year’s highly successful group. Sacramento renegotiated-and-extended Domantas Sabonis, extended Harrison Barnes, and re-signed Trey Lyles and Alex Len. After breaking their playoff drought, the Kings prioritized continuity over flashy free agent additions.

The new faces in the rotation are both perimeter players. Sasha Vezenkov finally signed, after being drafted in 2017, and Chris Duarte was acquired in a salary-dumping trade from the Indiana Pacers. Both players should factor in immediately in helping to beef up the Kings wing group.

Vezenkov will likely form a three-forward rotation with Barnes and second-year stud Keegan Murray. All three players are relatively interchangeable, and each can play in tandem with the others. Vezenkov is NBA-ready with his shooting and scoring, so he’ll play a big role for the Kings this season.

Duarte will swing between the forward and guard spots. He’ll give Mike Brown a bigger option in the backcourt behind starter Kevin Huerter than he had last season. And if Sacramento downsizes and tries to spread things out, Duarte can slide up and play at the three. There are bench unit possibilities that feature Vezenkov, Duarte, Malik Monk and Davion Mitchell that have to make Brown giddy.

One last note: The additions of Vezenkov and Duarte probably don’t leave a lot of forward minutes leftover for Trey Lyles. That means Lyles primary minutes could come from backing up Sabonis. That’s probably fine, as Lyles can certainly handle that role as a stretch-five option.

Related: Who will be the backup center?

This is somewhat of a first-NBA-world problem. Which is pretty cool for the Kings, if you think about where they’ve been for years. But it’s still something Mike Brown will have to sort out.

As mentioned above, Trey Lyles will probably have to play a good amount at the five, if the Kings are going to make sure to leave plenty of minutes to work in both Sasha Vezenkov and Chris Duarte. Lyles saw about 40% of his minutes at center last year, and that feels like it will increase this season. On nights when Sacramento needs to go bigger, he’ll swing over to power forward, but this year’s roster construction should see him playing center more than ever.

Alex Len re-emerged late last season as Domantas Sabonis’ primary backup. After playing mostly garbage time for the first five months of the season, Len saw 13 minutes per game behind Sabonis over the season’s final few weeks. He then featured regularly in the team’s first-round playoff series too. Len never took more than five shots in a single game, but he averaged 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks to close the regular season.

JaVale McGee was brought in after he was bought out by the Dallas Mavericks. McGee is heading into Season 16 and he wasn’t very productive in Dallas last year. But he’s got a good relationship with Brown and could have one more solid season of backup play in him. If nothing else, he’s a good locker room addition for the Kings.

Look for Lyles to get the bulk of the minimal backup minutes behind Sabonis (the Kings star plays about 34-35 minutes per game). McGee will probably get the veteran nod early on, when Sacramento needs a bigger option. But Len will be heard from before the season ends. He was too productive be relegated back to a deep bench role.

nba golden state warriors la clippers los angeles lakers phoenix suns sacramento kings golden state warriors la clippers los angeles lakers phoenix suns sacramento kings

Explaining Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 Contracts

Keith SmithOctober 03, 2023

The NBA’s headline-grabbing offseason transactions happen from late-June through mid-July. The action starts just before the NBA Draft and continues until most of the major free agents are off the board by mid-July.

After that, attention turns to the start of the NFL and college football seasons, fantasy drafts, the start of the Premier League season and MLB postseason races. But NBA teams don’t stop working.

No, this isn’t about the dragged out “Dame’s of Our Lives” saga that only resolved days ahead of training camp. Nor is it about James Harden sitting out as the Philadelphia 76ers begin training camp.

This is about the hundreds of transactions for players you’ve rarely heard of. This is about how teams stock their training camp rosters, while also beefing up the rosters of their G League affiliate teams.

This is about Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts. This about those on the fringes of the NBA. Veterans trying to hang on for one more run, young guys looking for a chance and everyone in between.

What are Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts?

Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts are commonly referred to as “summer contracts” or “training camp contracts”. These players are being brought in to provide competition in training camp, to give coaches some extra bodies for drills and scrimmages, and sometimes to prove they are worthy of a regular season roster spot.

Both Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts are one-year, fully non-guaranteed contracts. (A team could technically sign a player who was from another team, or from outside of the NBA, to a four-year, maximum contract on a summer contract (not an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 deal), but that’s never happened and will likely never happen for many reasons.) In addition, they do not count against the salary cap or the luxury tax. They are very much “make good” deals in every sense of the word.

If a player proves worthy of sticking around, teams have a few options. We’ll cover the uniqueness of an Exhibit 10 contract in a moment, because it has some different parameters around it.

If a team wants to keep a player on an Exhibit 9 deal, the simplest process is to keep them on the roster for opening night. At that point, the player’s contract converts from an Exhibit 9 contract to a standard non-guaranteed contract. It begins to count against the salary cap and the luxury tax, just like any other standard contract. If the team wants to guarantee the deal, they can do so at any time. Otherwise, the contract will become fully guaranteed on the league-wide guarantee date of January 10. (In reality, contracts become fully guaranteed on January 7, because players have to clear waivers by January 10 to avoid their deals becoming fully guaranteed. Thus, the last day to waive a player on a non-guaranteed deal is actually January 7. Aren’t date-based technicalities fun?)

If a team keeps a player from an Exhibit 9 contract for the full season, after it converts to a standard deal, that player is then a free agent following the season. If eligible, the team can issue them a qualifying offer to make the player a restricted free agent. Otherwise, they become an unrestricted free agent.

Let’s say a player looks so good that the team wants to keep them long-term. Options for a guy on an Exhibit 9 deal are somewhat limited. They can do the process above, but that only converts the deal to a one-year contract. If a team wants to risk it, they can waive the player from their Exhibit 9 deal and hope that they clear waivers. At that point, the player would be a free agent and the team can sign them to whatever type of contract they have available to them via cap space or via an exception.

What is specific about an Exhibit 9 contract?

An Exhibit 9 contract includes a provision that protects the player against injury while under that contract. If a player is injured while on an Exhibit 9 deal, the team is responsible for paying that player $15,000 (this is up from $6,000 in the prior CBA). That $15,000 does hit the salary cap and luxury tax as a form of dead money charge, upon the player being waived.

Lastly, teams can’t sign more than six players to an Exhibit 9 contract at any given time.

What is specific about an Exhibit 10 contract?

An Exhibit 10 contract is unique in that it has ties to the G League. Everything works the same as laid out above, with a few key differences.

A player on an Exhibit 10 contract can be converted to a two-way contract, provided that player is eligible to play on a two-way deal. (In order to be two-way eligible, a player must have three years of service or less. If they have four years of service, they have to have missed an entire season of games in those first four seasons. Note: This is years of service, not the year the player is currently in. A year of service isn’t earned until after the current season completes.)

Players who sign Exhibit 10 contracts are also eligible for a bonus if they play for the NBA team’s G League affiliate after being waived. For the 2023-24 season, that bonus can range from $5,000 to $75,000. (The maximum amount will increase by the same percentage as the salary cap does for future years. This was changed in the current CBA from being a set amount in the previous CBA.) In order to receive this bonus, a player must report to and remain with the G League affiliate for a period of no less than 60 days.

The most common process for a player on an Exhibit 10 contract to stick on the regular season NBA roster is to be converted to a two-way deal. However, teams can undertake a series of transactions if they want to get one of these players on a long-term standard deal without exposing the player to a waiver claim.

In this case, a team can convert the player to a two-way contract, then from their two-way contract they can sign the player to a long-term standard deal. Although the Exhibit 10 deal and the following two-way contract would both be terminated, the player is not exposed to waivers during this process of conversions/signings.

A team can also convert an Exhibit 10 contract directly to a standard contract, as was laid out above. In this case the deal becomes a one-year, non-guaranteed minimum contract. The same guarantee dates and process exist, as laid out above.

The deadline for converting an Exhibit 10 contract to a two-way deal or a standard deal are ahead of the regular season.

Like an Exhibit 9 or a summer contract, an Exhibit 10 contract does not count against the salary cap or the luxury tax.

Does anyone make a team from these deals?

The answer to this question used to be no. It was very rare to see a player make a team after being on a summer contract/training camp deal. With the advent of two-way contracts, conversions to two-way deals became a fairly common occurrence.

However, in recent years, several veteran players have played their way off their camp deal and made a regular season roster. The most famous example of this is probably Dwight Howard, who made the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers after starting on an Exhibit 9 contract. Howard was then a big part of the Lakers winning the 2020 NBA Finals.

How many players are currently on Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contracts?

As of this writing, there are 95 players on rosters that are currently signed to an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contract. Several other players have already been signed and waived that were on Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 deals. That brings the total number to well over 100 of these deals already this offseason. There are likely to be several more of these sign-and-waive type of transactions, as it’s how teams regularly provide players with bonuses for joining their G League affiliate after the NBA preseason. (Note: Even if a player is playing for a G League affiliate after an Exhibit 10 contract, the NBA team has no claim to that player. They are considered an NBA free agent and able to sign with any team.)

Some notable veteran players that are currently signed to an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contract include Rudy Gay and Rodney McGruder (Golden State Warriors), Harry Giles III (Brooklyn Nets), Romeo Langford (Utah Jazz), Mac McClung (Orlando Magic), Lamar Stevens (Boston Celtics) and Edmond Sumner (Charlotte Hornets).

It’s a good bet that at least a few of those players will have their contract converted and will be on a standard NBA contract on opening night.

nba exhibit 10 exhibit 9 glossary

NBA Atlantic Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithOctober 03, 2023

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Southeast Division and Southwest Division teams.

Boston Celtics

Who are the starters?

Boston has a top-six that rivals or bests almost every other team in the NBA. That’s hardly a problem, but it does leave Joe Mazzulla deciding who goes to the bench when everyone is available to play. While many other coaches would love to have such troubles, it can be a tricky equation with egos, salaries and lineup balance all in play.

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are all locks to start. Jrue Holiday is about a 99.9% lock to start. That leaves the last spot down to Al Horford or Derrick White. Two drastically different players, resulting in some drastically different styles of plays and different rotations.

Horford has come off the bench in exactly 10 of the 1,013 NBA games that he’s played. Four times were in his rookie season with the Atlanta Hawks and the other six times were during the one disastrous season Horford spent with the Philadelphia 76ers. The veteran big man has started all 340 regular season games he’s played with the Celtics, and all 89 playoff games.

Derrick White’s role in Boston has yo-yoed back and forth between starting and coming off the bench. He was mostly a reserve during the Celtics 2022 NBA Finals run. Last season, White started in 70 of his 82 regular season games and 16 of his 20 playoff games.

That logic says White probably goes to the bench, but that might be too simple of an answer.

Boston’s big man rotation is pretty thin behind Porzingis and Horford. Right now, Luke Kornet (who the Celtics believe in as a regular season guy for 15-20 minutes per game) and newly-added Wenyen Gabriel are the primary backup bigs. As we learned last season, Mazzulla’s preferred rotation only has room for three bigs. So, it’ll probably be Porzingis, Horford and Kornet most nights.

We also learned that Mazzulla loves to play five-out. If he can start two ball-hawking, playmaking guards in Holiday and White, alongside his star wings in Brown and Tatum, with Porzingis pulling opposing bigs away from the paint, Mazzulla is going to do it. He’s at least going to go that grouping a lot, even if it doesn’t start.

Against certain teams, like the Milwaukee Bucks or Philadelphia 76ers, Mazzulla may lean on Horford to start, with White coming off the bench. Horford has historically been Boston’s best matchup for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. And the next two best guys to guard those two big stars, Grant Williams and Marcus Smart, are no longer in green.

The reality is that the Celtics will say the typical “We have six starters” sort of stuff. Maybe Horford and White share the fifth spot, with White starting on the nights that Horford sits. The big man isn’t subject to the NBA’s new resting policy, and he’s already at the point where he doesn’t play back-to-back sets.

The guess here is that this remains pretty fluid. And a non-guess is that both Horford and White understand the goal is to win a title. They’ll sacrifice starting if that’s what it takes to achieve that goal.

Related: Is there enough off the bench?

Boston’s depth was pretty well sapped this summer. They traded away a starter in Marcus Smart, a swing starter/reserve in Rob Williams, the Sixth Man of the Year in Malcolm Brogdon and versatile backup big Grant Williams.

That’s a lot of talent headed out the door.

The Celtics believe that Payton Pritchard is ready for a bigger role as an every-night backup point guard. He’s been a knockdown shooter throughout his career, is a developing playmaker and he’s a competitive defender, despite a lack of size.

Sam Hauser returns in his designated shooter role. But Hauser also held up remarkably well on defense. And by the end of last season, he was showing the ability to make something happen off the dribble against hard closeouts.

As we covered above, Luke Kornet and Wenyen Gabriel will be the third and fourth bigs. That’s probably a step ahead of where they’d ideally be slotted in a rotation, but Boston can make do.

After that, the Celtics will be hoping that someone emerges out of Oshae Brissett, Dalano Banton, Svi Mykhailiuk, Lamar Stevens and rookie Jordan Walsh. All bring a different mix of skills, and over the course of a long regular season, all will probably have opportunities to contribute.

Whoever ends up as Boston’s sixth man will be very good, and will bring starter-level production. It’s important to find another four or five guys to contribute throughout 82 games to keep Joe Mazzulla from having to run the starters into the ground. Keep an eye on Brad Stevens using his $6.2 million TPE from the Grant Williams trade to bring in some additional help by the trade deadline.

Brooklyn Nets

Who is the starting point guard?

On its face, this seems to be a pretty easy answer: Spencer Dinwiddie. But things are rarely that simple, especially when Ben Simmons is involved.

Simmons is full-go for training camp after playing just 100 games over the last three seasons. Simmons also recently said that he’s a point guard, no matter how much people keep trying to make him everything but a lead playmaker.

Thus, the question of who starts.

Dinwiddie started all 26 of his games for the Nets after being acquired at the trade deadline. He’s also got a long history with the team from his previous stint in Brooklyn. Ultimately, Dinwiddie is the safer option. He’s been relatively durable, and he’s productive, if somewhat inefficient.

But Simmons still has that star upside. After the last two messy seasons, it’s easy to forget that Simmons was a three-time All-Star with the 76ers. He was also the NBA’s most versatile defender, equally as good at guarding all five positions. And despite the lack of a jump shot, Simmons was a top-tier playmaker and could still provide some points too.

If that guy remains in there somewhere, Simmons unlocks a whole new level for the Nets. Imagine the havoc a trio of Simmons, Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton could wreak on opposing offenses?

The guess here is that Dinwiddie starts, but by the holidays, Simmons takes over. If Simmons hasn’t won the job back by then, he’s probably either hurt or simply doesn’t have it anymore. At that point, Brooklyn has to decide what to do with the $78.2 million he’s owed this season and next.

Who starts at forward?

Assuming Cam Johnson’s hamstring injury isn’t serious, and it doesn’t seem to be, Jacque Vaughn has an interesting decision to make at the forward position. Johnson is a for-sure starter. That leaves the other spot down to Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale. Finney-Smith started all 26 games he played for the Nets after the trade deadline, while O’Neale moved to a bench role.

Seems like Finney-Smith will start, and that’s probably how it will go. But O’Neale has historically been a better shooter, and this starting group is a bit light on shooting. Defensively, Finney-Smith has a bit more size, but the two are fairly comparable. So, it might not be quite as cut-and-dry as it seems.

There’s also a slight chance that Simmons starts, and Dinwiddie moves to an off-ball role. That would likely push both Mikal Bridges and Johnson to the starting forward roles. That makes things a little messy for the bench forward rotation, but it could be a way for Vaughn to get the most playmaking on the floor.

The bet here is that Finney-Smith starts, but O’Neale is heavily involved. Maybe, and it’s a big maybe, Dinwiddie moves back to the off-ball role (in which he was quite good with Dallas), and Simmons starts alongside him, with Bridges and Johnson as the forwards. But that’s probably a pretty far down-the-line thing, if ever.

New York Knicks

Who is the backup power forward?

The last three seasons Julius Randle has averaged 37.6, 35.3 and 35.5 minutes per game. He’s been pretty durable too, playing in 71, 72 and 77 games.

So, Randle’s backup doesn’t exactly have a major role. But it is still a question that needs answered. Especially if Randle was to miss time for any reason.

In the regular season, it seems likely that player will be Josh Hart. Is that unconventional? Sure. Can Hart do it? He sure can.

Despite being a 6-foot-5 wing, Hart is one of the better rebounders in the NBA. Not just for his size, but period. Hart has a terrific nose for the ball, he’s got great timing and he’s extremely tough. He’s equally adept at digging out defensive boards, as he is sneaking in and stealing second chance opportunities.

Hart also plays bigger than his size on defense. He’s pretty rugged, which allows him to hold up against all but the biggest fours in the NBA. Considering the Knicks will also always have a true five on the floor, Hart will have that backside rim protection for the handful of guys who can overpower him inside. And playing Hart as the backup four eases the congestion of a very crowded wing rotation (more on that in a bit!).

But…and this is a big but…what if Randle goes down?

Tom Thibodeau embraced the unconventional-ness of Hart as a backup four, but he’s not likely to go that way if Randle can’t play. In the five games Randle missed at the end of last regular season, Thibodeau went with the departed Obi Toppin as the starter.

As it stands right now, the Knicks don’t have another option. New York has fooled around with some double-center looks, and that might be the answer if Randle was to miss a lot of time. But that puts a lot of added stress on the offense.

Let’s call this lack of a true backup four something that isn’t a problem…until it is. And that’s the best New York can hope for right now.

Related: What is the wing rotation?

As mentioned above, the Knicks have a lot of wings. RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes are entrenched as starters. Josh Hart will see plenty of wing minutes. Donte DiVincenzo was added this summer as a value signing for most of the Non-Taxpayer MLE. And, if that wasn’t already enough, Immanuel Quickley also plays some off-ball minutes too. Oh, and Evan Fournier is still on this roster too!

We can take Fournier out of the mix. New York would have to suffer a lot of injuries before Fournier would get back in the mix. As it stands, he remains a major trade chip to rebalance the roster, or as valuable salary-matching in a trade for a star.

But that leaves five guys for two spots. And Barrett is going to play somewhere between 33 and 35 minutes per game. So, it’s really one spot and a handful of other minutes. As we covered already, Hart will see a chunk of his minutes backing up Julius Randle at the four.

That should leave enough minutes for Donte DiVincenzo to see 20 or so minutes a night off the bench. And Quickley should get 28-30 minutes per game between the two guard spots.

It’s not really a problem for Tom Thibodeau, especially if he continues to ramp down his starter’s minutes this season, as he did last year. But there is a chance someone could get uncomfortable here, due to a lesser than ideal amount of playing time. At that point, it’s likely the Knicks front office has a decision to make on a roster-rebalancing trade.

Philadelphia 76ers

Who starts at guard if James Harden isn’t there?

As of this writing, James Harden has skipped Media Day for the Sixers. It’s unknown if he’ll show up for training camp or not. If Harden truly holds out, he’s got a 30-day window to figure things out, or he might not be allowed to become a free agent after this season.

For this question, we’re going to take the approach that Harden isn’t a part of things for the Sixers this season. Whether it’s a holdout, the team just sits him out or Harden gets his long-awaited trade, we’ll assume he’s out of the picture.

That leaves the second guard spot next to Tyrese Maxey open. More often than not, De’Anthony Melton got that call when either Maxey or Harden missed time last season. He’s probably got the first crack at that position again this season too.

However, Nick Nurse is now coaching the 76ers and he might want to go in a different direction. Over the last couple of seasons with the Toronto Raptors, Nurse has run bigger lineups that featured one true guard. Could he run some version of that in Philadelphia?

If Nurse wants to go big, he could start Kelly Oubre Jr. or veteran wing Danny Green. Danuel House Jr. and Furkan Korkmaz are both still around, but neither seems like they’d snag a starting spot.

If Nurse wanted to go smaller, he could also call upon veteran guard Patrick Beverley to start. Beverley hasn’t come off the bench for several years, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him start.

Since none of the bigger options are all that appealing, look for Melton and Beverley to battle for the starting spot. One benefit of bringing Melton off the bench is that he’s done it regularly. Melton can also easily sub for, and play alongside, either Maxey or Beverley.

What is the wing rotation?

Kelly Oubre Jr. was a late addition, but a good one. Oubre isn’t the most efficient guy, but he can score. That still has value, especially in a reserve role. If James Harden isn’t around, the 76ers are going to need someone to replace some of his scoring. Oubre can do that.

After him, it gets a little messy. Maybe Danny Green can regain his 3&D form, but he’s 36 years old and didn’t look great physically last season. Danuel House Jr. and Furkan Korkmaz have never quite been able to grab consistent rotation roles. Maybe Jaden Springer breaks through in his third year. But he’s only played 18 total NBA games, and Springer’s G League production is a little iffy. He mostly overpowered outmatched players with his athleticism to get his points, which won’t happen in the NBA.

This is a spot that could get cleaned up considerably if Daryl Morey eventually trades James Harden. Of course, if Harden is in the fold, and actually tries, then this problem is also lessened. But given we’ve seen what Harden did in both Houston and Brooklyn when he wanted a trade, the 76ers might be worse off if he actually plays.

Toronto Raptors

Who starts?

Toronto is in transition, even if they don’t fully seem to want to admit it. Kyle Lowry is long gone, Fred VanVleet is gone, and Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are pending free agents. But for now, new coach Darko Rajakovic has to put a team on the floor that features the latter two.

And that’s where his opening group is formed, along with Scottie Barnes. After that, it’s somewhat of an open question. For most of last season, Nick Nurse favored starting small without a true center. After the team acquired Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, everyone slid down a position, and Gary Trent Jr. went to the bench.

This season could look similar. Toronto will probably open with the three forwards alongside Poeltl, with Dennis Schroder running the point. Both Siakam and Barnes are capable of running the offense, but it’s likely the rookie coach will want an actual point guard leading his offense.

That means Trent, after opting in for this season, is back in a bench role in a contract year. This is probably another one of those “We have six starters” situations, but it’s pretty clear Trent will be the sixth man here. If he bristles at that, things could get messy.

Starting Poeltl, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes and Schroder could also be messy spacing-wise. Only Anunoby can be considered a reliable shooter of that group, and he doesn’t have that single-player gravity to create spacing for everyone else.

The real answer to this problem is a trade. The Raptors reportedly were in on trying to get Damian Lillard and that would have made sense in so many ways. Media Day in Toronto was weird, because neither Siakam nor the team’s leadership seemed overly committed to each other. And Anunoby has been looking for a bigger role.

This version of the Raptors was past their expiration date over a year or so ago. But they just keep moving along, with only minor changes. It’s past time for a shakeup, but for now, this group is what it is.

Who is the backup point guard?

This feels like it’s been a long-term question for the Raptors. Dennis Schroder seems very likely to start, but who backs him up is an open competition. To some extent, it’ll be Pascal Siakam or Scottie Barnes running the offense when Schroder sits, but it’d be nice to see a real backup floor general emerge.

Malachi Flynn is still around, but we’re in Year 4 of hoping he pops. Not much from the previous three years gives off much confidence that will happen. Jeff Dowtin is really interesting, and has been really good in the G League. But Dowtin is 26 years old and doesn’t even have a fully guaranteed contract.

Veteran guard Garrett Temple was added this summer, but he hasn’t been a regular rotation player in over four years. Markquis Nowell is a fun player to watch and monitor. But he’s 5-foot-8, on a two-way deal and he shot under 40% in college. Nowell will have to prove himself in the G League first.

As Toronto has repeatedly leaned into adding lengthy wings (and they did it again this summer by signing Jalen McDaniels), they’ve ignored the backup point guard spot. That’s coming home to roost now. The Raptors might need to lean on Dennis Schroder to play a lot. That historically has come with mixed results. Much like the question about the starting group, this could, and should, be fixed with a trade. But it’s long past time to quit holding our breath waiting on that to happen.

nba boston celtics brooklyn nets new york knicks philadelphia 76ers toronto raptors boston celtics brooklyn nets new york knicks philadelphia 76ers toronto raptors

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

Southeast

Atlantic

Central

Southwest

Northwest

Pacific

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

AL West

AL East

AL Central

NL West

NL East

NL Central

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

Atlantic

Metropolitan

Pacific

Central

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

Eastern

Western

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

Eastern

Western

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

Trending Players

Home

Popular Pages

Trending Players

Home

Teams

Popular Pages

Transactions

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East