Celtics Acquire Jrue Holiday

Keith SmithOctober 01, 2023

When the Milwaukee Bucks acquired Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers, conventional wisdom was that the balance of the power in the NBA had shifted. The Bucks were immediately proclaimed not only Eastern Conference favorites, but NBA title favorites as well.

On the other side, the Blazers weren’t destined to keep Jrue Holiday for long. The veteran guard didn’t really fit Portland’s rebuilding plan, which involves several young backcourt players.

Enter the Boston Celtics. In a trade that may have tilted the East and the title odds back toward Boston, the Celtics acquired Holiday from Portland on the eve of NBA Media Day.

The trade details are:

Boston Celtics acquire: Jrue Holiday

Boston Celtics trade: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, 2024 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors (top-4 protected in 2024, top-1 protected in 2025, unprotected in 2026) and 2029 unprotected first-round pick from Boston

Portland Trail Blazers acquire: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, 2024 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors (top-4 protected in 2024, top-1 protected in 2025, unprotected in 2026) and 2029 unprotected first-round pick from Boston

Portland Trail Blazers trade: Jrue Holiday

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary ($36.9M in 2023-24) 

Outgoing salary ($34.1M in 2023-24) 

The Boston Celtics are all-in. There is no other way to describe it. Boston added nearly $3 million in salary to a roster that was already $13.4 million over the tax line.

But the Celtics had to make this move.

When the Milwaukee Bucks added Damian Lillard, Boston had to counter by adding another perimeter defender. Derrick White is excellent, but the idea of defending the Bucks with White as the only good on-ball option was worrisome.

Now, Boston has the best defensive backcourt in the NBA. And they added offensive punch to their frontcourt in their previous big trade. This is the most balanced team the Celtics have had in years, and that’s saying something considering the considerable success this team has had.

Jrue Holiday is essentially the replacement for Marcus Smart, who was traded in the deal that brought Kristaps Porzingis to Boston. Smart’s defense slipped noticeably last season, but that was likely the result of years of wear-and-tear finally catching up with him. After he gave it everything he had to win Defensive Player of the Year in 2022, Smart just wasn’t the same guy last season. White was a better defender, and not by a small margin. But that doesn’t mean replacing Smart was going to be an easy task. Far from it.

In what was considered to a be down year for Holiday, he was still first-team All-Defense. White made second team All-Defense. There simply isn’t a backcourt in the NBA that approaches what these two can do together. Add to it that they both have enough size to switch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and Boston is re-entering their “switch everything” days.

And that’s a massive part of the reimagining of the Celtics.

The last few seasons have seen Boston become reliant on two-big lineups. Whether it was Al Horford and Rob Williams, or Horford and Grant Williams, or Williams and Williams, or Horford and Daniel Theis, or various other combinations, the Celtics generally played with two big men on the floor.

Now, Joe Mazzulla projects to go smaller and even more five-out, but with more versatility on the floor. It’s likely that the openers for Boston will be Tatum, Brown, White, Holiday and Porzingis. Boston will switch everything with the initial foursome, with Porzingis sitting back in drop coverage, or in help position near the rim. It’s possible Mazzulla will bring back the roamer role that Williams excelled in, using Porzingis as a floater along the backline of the defense.

When they stay more straight up, the Celtics are positioned to play hedge coverages, with Holiday fighting over and around screens. His screen navigation, both on- and off-ball remains elite. The Celtics may also run chained together hand-offs, all designed around allowing the ball to be funneled to Porzingis as a shot blocker.

When Horford, who seems likely to head to a bench role because of Boston’s lack of big man depth (more on that soon!), comes into the game, Boston may straight switch everything one through five. Horford still holds up fairly well against all but the quickest of perimeter players. That type of defensive scheme versatility will make it hard to score on Boston.

The Celtics will miss Rob Williams’ rim protection, same as they are going to miss Grant Williams’ terrific positional defense. But the latter is long gone now, and the former was never a good bet to stay healthy. If Time Lord could be counted on to be healthy for most of the regular season and in April, May and June, he wouldn’t have been traded. Sadly, that’s never been a reality the Celtics were able to enjoy, and hard as it was, it’s understandable that they chose to move on.

This trade gives Mazzulla a lot more defensive versatility than he had a few days ago. On the other side of the ball, Boston also becomes more dynamic.

Holiday has always been a very good shooter. He’s good off the dribble, and excellent when he spots up. In his three seasons with the Bucks, Holiday put up 49/39/80 shooting splits. Even as his three-point attempts increased, his accuracy remained good.

When Boston traded Smart, the immediate focuses were on his defense, leadership and toughness. All fair worries, but all things Holiday will replace quite well. But the Celtics also lost Smart’s playmaking. He was the team’s best passer, and Boston had some questions, even with Tatum taking on more of the creation role.

Now, Mazzulla has options. Tatum is still going to have the ball a lot, as will Brown. They are the engines that make the Celtics go. White will get a fair number of touches too. But, when necessary, Holiday is more than capable of running the show.

It’s fair to expect that the Celtics offense might be a little bumpy to open the season. They’re adding in two new players, both of which are used to having primary or secondary roles in their team’s offense. It’s going to take a little while for that pecking order to figure itself out. But eventually, Holiday will be Boston’s fourth option, and not many teams have a player as good as Holiday in that slot.

There’s some additional pressure on Payton Pritchard now. He wanted a change, and he’s going to get it as the Celtics third guard. He’s not going to be asked to replace Brogdon’s Sixth Man of the Year production, but Pritchard has to provide shooting, some playmaking and enough defense to be playable.

But the offensive and defensive fit, and roles are the least worrisome parts of this trade. The most worrisome portion of this trade is the Celtics frontcourt depth. Even if the team will play smaller lineups more often, and even factoring in Williams’ injury history, Boston is thin up front.

It’s pretty much Porzingis and Horford now. And Porzingis has a lengthy injury history of his own, and Horford is 37 years old. If Porzingis gets hurt again (he did deal with a case of plantar fasciitis over the summer) or Horford falls off (less likely, as he’s remained rock solid), Boston will be in trouble.

Luke Kornet has generally been solid for the Celtics when called upon. But he’s much more of a fourth or fifth big than a third big. Boston is reportedly signing Wenyen Gabriel. He’s also a solid player, but again, more of a fourth option. Brad Stevens might not be done seeking out additional big man depth. Boston is still sitting on a $6.2 million TPE. That could come into play at some point down the line.

The last thing we want to cover is Holiday’s future beyond this season. He has a $39.4 million player option for 2024-25, but it’s unlikely Holiday will play on that number next year. He’ll either opt out and head into free agency, or he may work out a long-term extension with the Celtics. It’s already been reported both Holiday and Boston want to make this a long-term partnership.

We’ll cover Holiday’s extension possibilities in depth in a future Next Contract series. For now, it seems likely Boston will do what they can to get Holiday signed to a new deal. Ideally, they’d bring his 2024-25 salary down by a considerable amount, while adding three or four new years to his deal.

As it stands right now, if Holiday picked up his option, Boston would basically be in the luxury tax for the 2024-25 season with just five players with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, White and the newly added Holiday. Add in the guaranteed salaries for Horford and rookie Jordan Walsh, and the Celtics will be well into the tax next season.

But that’s the cost of trying to win a title in the NBA. And the Boston Celtics are all in on winning Banner 18.

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming salary ($36.9M in 2023-24) 

Outgoing salary ($34.1M in 2023-24) 

Much like we did with the trade with the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns that delivered Holiday to Portland, we’re going to keep this relatively simple.

Malcolm Brogdon probably won’t be in Portland very long. He’s probably going to be traded before long. Brogdon may stick around longer than Holiday, only because camps are starting in a few days. But the Trail Blazers are going to keep things moving and will flip Brogdon for even more additional assets. Because of that, we’re not going to focus on Brogdon’s fit with the Blazers at all. It’s simply not going to matter.

Rob Williams, on the other hand, is a bit of a curious addition, as Portland previously acquired Deandre Ayton as their center of the future. Ayton and Williams aren’t a workable combination, so this is a depth and “Why not?” type of double-down acquisition for Portland.

Williams is an athletic marvel. He catches and dunks lobs that most guys wouldn’t get fingertips on. Williams will block shots from out of nowhere, and regularly go back up and block the putback too. He’s also a ferocious finisher around the rim. His rebounding is greatly improved and he’s also a terrific passer.

On the downside, Williams is also a good bet to miss considerable chunks of each season. The healthiest he’s ever been was in the 2021-22 season. Just as Boston was morphing into a juggernaut, Williams tore his meniscus, missed the end of the regular season, some of the playoffs and never looked quite right when he got back late in the Celtics 2022 NBA Finals run.

But this is the kind of mini gamble Portland can make right now. If Williams gets healthy, he’ll team with Ayton to give the team 48 minutes of very good center play. As the Blazers grow, Williams will become an important piece because of his defense.

If nothing else, Williams is another tradable asset. He’s on a great contract. If Portland decides they don’t need him, it’s a lock that some contender will happily make a deal to pick up Williams, in hopes that they can keep him healthy.

Last, but far from least, Portland added two more first-round picks in this deal. The top-4 protected pick from the Golden State Warriors is close to a lock to convey this year. Unless everything craters for the Warriors, the Blazers will get a non-lottery pick. If Golden State does fall apart fully, Portland will see that pick flip to top-1 protected in 2025. If by some change the Warriors are a two-year mess, the Trail Blazers will get an unprotected pick in 2026.

The real get is the 2029 first-round pick from the Celtics. By the time that pick comes due, it’s impossible to predict what Boston will be. Both Jrue Holiday and Al Horford will likely be retired. Kristaps Porzingis will be 34 years old and, if we’re being honest, probably long gone from Boston.

Jaylen Brown will be in the final year of his yet-to-start super max extension, and Jayson Tatum will be in Year 4 of his incoming super max extension. On paper, Brown and Tatum in their early-30s should be enough to keep Boston in contention. But a lot can, and will, change between now and then.

Much like they did in the deal with the Bucks, the Trail Blazers added another mystery box pick. If their young core proves ready to win in the next two or three years, Portland will have additional assets to use in trades to supplement that core. Just as Boston did in this deal. As it always has, the NBA transaction wheel rolls ever onward.

 

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Damian Lillard Trade Analysis

Keith SmithSeptember 27, 2023

It final happened. Essentially three months after Damian Lillard asked the Portland Trail Blazers for a trade, a deal was reached. And, somewhat surprisingly, Lillard was not sent to his preferred destination of the Miami Heat. Instead, Lillard is joining another Eastern Conference title contenders. The trade details are:

Whew!

Eight players and up to three draft picks in a three-team trade. And there’s always a chance this deal expands (or is followed up with a subsequent trade) if/when Jrue Holiday is rerouted to another team.

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming Salary ($45.6M in 2023-24)

  • Damian Lillard (PG, 3 years, $152.8M + $63.2M player option, $45.6M in 2023-24)

Outgoing Salary ($45.7M in 2023-24)

The Milwaukee Bucks landed the star here in Damian Lillard. They saved a little bit of salary in the deal for this year, but that’s so negligible that it doesn’t really matter. Milwaukee functionally added three years and $162.5 million for the next three seasons, as Jrue Holiday was a near-lock to decline his player option for the 2024-25 season.

But as many have said: That’s the cost of doing business in the NBA.The Bucks were under pressure to prove Giannis Antetokounmpo that they were committed to winning now and, crucially, for years to come. Antetokounmpo himself said that Milwaukee’s commitment to winning titles would be the difference in him staying with the only franchise he’s ever known or signing elsewhere.

Mission accomplished…maybe?

Lillard is an incredible talent. He’s one of the best scoring guards in the NBA. He’s repeatedly come up big in clutch moments. He should fit in perfectly with Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez as the Bucks veteran core. Lillard has also been somewhat injury-prone over the last few seasons. Lillard is also 33 years old. And he’s nowhere near the defender that Milwaukee has been accustomed to having in Holiday. But he’s Damian freaking Lillard. And that should be enough.

The Bucks will be a different sort of team now. They traded defense for offense. But Antetokounmpo and Lopez should be able to clean up most messes caused by that downgrade on defense. The point of attack defense won’t be the same, but Adrian Griffin and his staff should be able to scheme around that fairly effectively.

As for offense, the Bucks are going to be lethal. Holiday wasn’t a bad offensive player, but he’s not Lillard. In his age-32 season last year, Lillard averaged a career-high 32.2 points on 46/37/91 shooting splits with a whopping 11.3 three-point attempts per game.

Now, Lillard will have the best offensive talent to work with that he’s ever had. Instead of a hard hedge or direct double-team when he comes off an on-ball screen, Lillard is probably getting a straight switch, or a defender trying to avoid a mismatch trailing over late. He should see cleaner looks than he’s seen in years.

In addition, the overall threat of Lillard, combined with his deep range, should open up the floor even more for Antetokounmpo’s driving game, and also Middleton, who thrives in the space in the middle. Brook Lopez will continue to see open looks, and Milwaukee can also put shooters like Pat Connaughton, Malik Beasley and A.J. Green on the floor too. That’s going to be a very spread offense with one of the games most terrifying drivers in Antetokounmpo looking down driving lanes.

It’s worth noting that Milwaukee traded their most-used starting backcourt in this deal, as Grayson Allen was sent to the Phoenix Suns. That means someone needs to be elevated to the starting lineup alongside Lillard. The Bucks could go with Pat Connaughton, who has started a decent amount. He’s a viable replacement for Allen’s shooting ability, while adding some better rebounding and similar defense.

Other options include Jae Crowder, if the Bucks want to go bigger and better defensively by moving Middleton back to the two. That one seems less likely, as Middleton and Crowder have both slowed somewhat as perimeter defenders. And then the Bucks need to find a backup four, which is Crowder’s current role, as Bobby Portis projects to play a lot at the five.

Malik Beasley was signed as a free agent, and he’d be a good fit in the starting group, if Griffin wants to leave others in roles that they are comfortable in. And don’t rule out A.J. Green as a surprise option. Green is a knockdown shooter and a developing playmaker. He’d be a passable fit for what Allen brought to the Bucks.

As for Giannis Antetokounmpo and extension possibilities, we covered that in depth here. Only Antetokounmpo, and probably time, will tell if acquiring Lillard was enough to get him thinking about reupping in Milwaukee. But all of the details for potential next contracts for Antetokounmpo are laid out in that piece.

Projected Starting 5: Damian Lillard, Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Related: Bucks 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming Salary ($70.3M in 2023-24)

Outgoing salary ($71.5M in 2023-24)

The Portland Trail Blazers side of this deal is a little incomplete. ESPN has already reported that Portland is trying to find a home for Jrue Holiday. That makes sense, as the Trail Blazers have little need for Holiday on their rebuilding team. Portland is also going to give the young guard group of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons as many minutes as they can handle.

That means we’ll eventually have an additional component to evaluate here for the Blazers. Whatever they get for Holiday, either in an expanded deal or a separate one, will have to be a part of the overall analysis. Because of that, we aren’t going to spend any time on Holiday’s fit in Portland.

Instead, we’ll pivot to the big man in Deandre Ayton. Has Ayton failed to live up to his number one overall pick status? That’s probably fair to say. Is he a complete bust and a terrible player? Not even close. Ayton has averaged a double-double in each of his five NBA seasons. For reference, only eleven players (ten if you remove Anthony Davis as a non-qualifier due to games played) averaged a double-double last season. Ayton has done it for five straight years. That’s not nothing.

The outside shot has never become a thing, and Ayton likes his midrange and turnaround fallaway jumpers a bit too much, but he’s still an effective scorer around the rim. He’s also one of the better offensive rebounders in the league, which belies a lot of the lack-of-effort stuff he’s often accused of.

On defense, Ayton is far from a game-changer. But there’s untapped ability there. It’ll probably never get unlocked, but if it does, Ayton becomes a solid two-way player.

Contractually, Ayton’s deal isn’t bad, even if it is a max. He’s making under 24% of the cap in each of his remaining three seasons. Given the Trail Blazers only other sizable salaries are for Jerami Grant and Simons, they should be fine with Ayton in the mix. It’ll be a few years before paying anyone else is a thing in Portland.

Also, and this is probably the most important factor, Ayton fits in with the age timeline in Portland. He just turned 25. The rest of the Blazers core is between 19 and 26. Even if you include Jerami Grant, he’s only 29 years old. The team can grow this group together and figure out what they have over the next few seasons.

In the end, Portland acquired a talented center who can be a big part of the team’s new core. And they’ve been linked to Ayton for a while, which also helps things too. They’ve likely had some sort of plans in place, if they could acquire him.

Toumani Camara is a nice flyer, especially for a team that is now fully rebuilding. Camara stuffed the stat sheet for Dayton as a senior and then put together a really nice Summer League showing too. The Blazers aren’t overflowing with forward talent, so adding a 6-foot-8 guy that can do a little bit of everything is a nice extra piece in this trade.

Before we get to the final incoming pieces to Portland, it’s fair to note that the Blazers got off of $54.4 in salary owed to Jusuf Nurkic in this deal. Nurkic had aged out of the team’s timeline, and his health issues made keeping him around even less appealing. Getting off of that contract is helpful, even if it possibly lessened the return.

The other two players, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson, are kind of caught up in the salary-matching swirl here. Little is a good player, but his role was going to be lessened with where Portland is heading. Johnson had a few flashes, but he was never going to crack the Blazers stacked guard group.

And now we get to the draft compensation. It feels a little light, considering this is Damian Lillard. One first-round pick and two swaps is probably less than the Blazers and Joe Cronin were thinking when this whole ordeal began. But swaps are the kind of things that are meaningless until they aren’t. And a pick that won’t deliver until six years from now could be anything. Maybe the Bucks implode and this all falls apart. Maybe they are incredibly successful and everyone retires happy. Those are picks and swaps with upside for Portland, given that they are several years and contract cycles away.

For now, Portland did well in this trade. The team trading away a superstar often comes up short in their return. If/when the Trail Blazers flip Jrue Holiday for additional players/picks, they’ll have done really well. We’ll re-evaluate when that happens.

Projected Starting 5: Jrue Holiday, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton

Related: Trail Blazers 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Phoenix Suns

Incoming Salary ($34.85M in 2023-24)

Outgoing Salary ($33.5M in 2023-24)

The Suns inclusion in this deal at first seems a little odd. Deandre Ayton seemed a good fit for what Frank Vogel hoped to build defensively. But the Suns seem to want to lean more into more of a sure thing offensively, while breaking Ayton’s contract into smaller, more tradable pieces.

On the former, Jusuf Nurkic should be that for Phoenix. He’s a terrific screener, a pretty good passer and he’s got a better outside shot than Ayton. He’ll rebound on the defensive boards at roughly the same rate as Ayton did. But Nurkic doesn’t have the defensive potential Ayton did, even if Ayton’s is largely unrealized.

Nurkic is also a pretty good bet to miss some time with injuries. Ayton had been pretty reliable over the past five years, while Nurkic has played 153 games total over the last four seasons. That’s at least a little worrisome for a team with title aspirations.

As for the latter, Grayson Allen and Nassir Little were nice depth gets for the Suns in this deal. Allen gives them another guard option. That’s important in case any of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Eric Gordon has a reoccurrence of the injuries that have plagued them in recent years.

Little gives Phoenix another athletic forward option. He might not beat out Keita Bates-Diop or Yuta Watanabe for minutes, but Little is a nice option to have around. And if that 37% three-point shooting is real, then Little becomes a really nice option to have off the bench.

The real value Allen and Little may have to Phoenix is that they are very easily movable players in a future deal. They make a combined $15.2 million, which could get the Suns a player down the line. That’s a lot easier to make happen than a trade that had to include Ayton’s $32.5 million salary for any sort of meaningful return.

Phoenix is currently at 17 players on standard NBA deals, which is two over the NBA’s regular season maximum. Ishmail Wainright is probably one of the cuts coming, as his contract is non-guaranteed. Jordan Goodwin is on a partially guaranteed deal, but he’s sticking around. That means the Suns will most likely have to eat a fully guaranteed contract on their books. But, hey, in for a penny, in for a pound, right?

Are the Suns really better after this deal? That’s hard to say. Nurkic is an offensive upgrade over Ayton, but how much more offense do you need when you have Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal? We’ll say Phoenix is better, but probably not appreciably so. At least not until they do whatever is coming next, which seems likely to happen at some point.

Projected Starting 5: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic

Related: Suns 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Miami Heat

We aren’t going to spend a lot of time here, because the Heat ended up not being a part of a deal for Damian Lillard. In the rare case where a superstar wasn’t able to name his destination, Miami was on the short end of the stick.

The Heat roster felt unfinished in hopes of a Lillard trade. Now, Miami has to pick up some of the pieces. They still have a lot of talent, but lost two key starters in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Josh Richardson was a nice addition, but that’s if he was your second- or third-best pickup, not your key signing.

All of that said, someone will emerge for Miami and have us all asking “How do they keep doing this?” Last year’s first-round pick Nikola Jovic appears poised for a bigger role too. The Heat will still end up being good, because that’s just sort of what they do.

Projected Starting 5: Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

Related: Heat 2023-24 Salary Cap Table 

Toronto Raptors

We’ll spend even less time here, because we only know that Toronto was engaged on trading for Damian Lillard. We have no real sense of how close anything really got. But that’s sort of the point.

We’ve all been waiting for the Raptors to do something big for a few years now. And they just kind of keep staying the same. Except in recent years, they’ve bled talent from a roster that was once one of the deepest in the NBA. Now, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are on expiring deals (Anunoby has a player option he’s likely to decline) and Toronto’s future seems no less certain than it was before.

A Lillard trade would have been a risky homerun swing, but Masai Ujiri won that way when he traded for Kawhi Leonard. It seems like Toronto is set up to take a similar cut again, but they seem content to move the runners along, playing station-to-station ball. That can win in the NBA, but it often results in a team that’s just kind of stuck in the middle. And that’s where the Raptors currently find themselves.

Projected Starting 5: Denis Schroder, O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl

Related: Raptors 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

nba damian lillard damian lillard jrue holiday jrue holiday jusuf nurkic jusuf nurkic

NBA Southwest Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithSeptember 27, 2023

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Southeast Division teams.

Dallas Mavericks

Who are the non-Luka and non-Kyrie starters? 

Dallas has their two superstars locked into starting positions with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The other three spots seem to be at least somewhat up for grabs. The good news? The Mavs have lots of options.

The one we’re most confident in is Grant Williams grabbing the starting power forward spot. Dallas can use his defense in the opening lineup, and his spot-up game and passing ability are nice fits on offense. Maxi Kleber is a good player, but the team has generally preferred him in a bench role.

At center, it seems like Dwight Powell will get the first crack. He’s an excellent screener, solid defender and he knows how to play with Luka Doncic. Those are all important things. But Dallas has some other options to at least take a look at. Richaun Holmes seems poised for a career rejuvenation. Dereck Lively II is oozing with potential, but he probably needs a year or so of seasoning. And the Mavericks have done well with Kleber playing some small-ball five too.

On the wing is where things get really interesting. Tim Hardaway Jr. is the long-time veteran option. He’s had that QB-WR connection with Doncic where the Mavs star can just trust Hardaway will be there when he throws a pass. But Hardaway doesn’t bring a lot defensively, and he trended more toward being a three-point specialist than ever last season. The latter is probably fine, but the former is a worry.

Josh Green is ready for a bigger role. He’s the best perimeter defender the Mavericks have. And Green put up 54/40 shooting splits last season. The guess is that even if he doesn’t start to open the season, Green will snag that starting wing spot by Christmas.

Other players like Seth Curry, Derrick Jones Jr., Jaden Hardy and rookie Olivier-Maxence Prosper will probably all factor in at some point too. But the guess is the Mavs will ultimately settle on Doncic, Irving, Green, Williams and Powell as their regular starting group.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As stated above, we know Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. are going to factor in heavily in the Mavericks wing rotation. Seth Curry will see plenty of off-ball minutes as a designated shooter too. But Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both going to play somewhere in the range of 36-38 minutes too. That doesn’t leave a lot of extra playing time. Who snags it?

Jaden Hardy is going to be hard to keep off the floor. He really started to show some stuff as his rookie season went along. Dallas likes his creation ability. If he can cut down on his turnovers and improve defensively, he may eventually surpass Hardaway in the rotation.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper is going to factor in here as well. He’s NBA-ready as a defender, but the shot needs work. Eventually, Prosper will see rotation minutes, but they may take a little bit to come his way.

Houston Rockets

Who is the backup point guard? 

The Rockets busy summer established a pretty clear pecking order for a team that was previously made up of a lot of young guys fighting for roles. Things are much cleaner now, minus backup point guard.

That spot would have likely been Kevin Porter Jr.’s, but that’s clearly no longer the case. With Houston being legitimately at least two-deep at every other spot, Ime Udoka has to figure out the backup point guard spot.

The guess here is that Houston would like Amen Thompson to grab that role. His size, defense and passing fits really well with both Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet in a three-guard rotation. Thompson needs to shoot it better, but the Rockets can be patient while his shot develops.

If Thompson doesn’t prove ready out of the gate, veteran journeyman Aaron Holiday can handle the initial backup minutes. The only other option is two-way player Trevor Hudgins. That means it’s really on Thompson to claim that role for his own.

It’s not just the in-game backup minutes where this matters. VanVleet is a good bet to miss at least a handful of games. If Udoka can comfortably plug Thompson in as a starter, or can increase his minutes as a backup, on those nights, that’s a win for the Rockets.

Will Cam Whitmore get minutes? 

Cam Whitmore had a shocking fall at the 2023 NBA Draft. He was projected as a high lottery pick and ended up falling to Houston with the 20th pick. Health concerns, along with some vague attitude worries, were cited as the reasons Whitmore fell.

At Summer League, the 6-foot-7 forward seemingly took any lingering draft frustrations out on his opponents. Whitmore looked terrific on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty clear already that his draft misfortune was a massive stroke of good luck for the Rockets.

But earning regular season minutes is a different thing entirely. Jabari Smith and Dillon Brooks project as the starting forwards. Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate and veteran addition Jeff Green will all open camp ahead of Whitmore in the rotation too. But Ime Udoka is going to have to find some minutes somewhere for Whitmore. He’s too good to sit for too long. Look for Whitmore to force the issue, in a good way, sooner rather than later.

Memphis Grizzlies

Who starts while Ja Morant is out? 

Ja Morant will miss roughly the first third of the season for the Grizzlies. That’s rough, but Memphis has had success without Morant in the past. Marcus Smart is more than capable of handling the point guard role while Morant is out. The real question is who replaces Dillon Brooks to open the season?

Yes, the Grizzlies had tired of Brooks antics and were ready to move on. And, yes, Smart is probably the long-term answer as to who replaces Brooks on the wing. But the team has to get through two months of the season before that can happen.

Two seasons ago, it looked like Ziaire Williams was going to be the long-term answer at small forward. Williams really settled in midway through his rookie year, and looked like the future was bright. Unfortunately, Williams’ sophomore season was a lost one, as he struggled with injuries and never really got healthy. He could re-grab that starting spot with a strong preseason.

Another option is Luke Kennard, if Memphis wants some additional shooting and playmaking in the opening group. The Grizzlies have more than enough defense to cover for Kennard, and he’d help open up the floor for Desmond Bane, who projects as the primary on-ball creator with Morant out.

For other options, John Konchar is a favorite of the coaching staff. David Roddy and Jake LaRavia could be second-year breakout guys. Mostly, Memphis has a bunch of options, even if none are perfect. This could be a spot where Taylor Jenkins does some experimenting with various players while Morant is out.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As covered above, Dillon Brooks is out. But Memphis has one wing spot covered with Desmond Bane. He’s somehow still underrated, even after getting essentially a max extension this past summer.

The lead guard depth is good with Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose all in the fold. The frontcourt depth is solid enough, even with Brandon Clarke likely out for most, if not all, of the season. Look for Santi Aldama to continue to build on what was a really good second season.

That second wing spot is still a question mark. Eventually, Smart will probably slide off-ball and will take on the role Brooks held down for years. But the Grizzlies need more. It’s all of the same options we covered for the fifth starter spot. But two or three of them will need to emerge as reliable wing contributors, and it’s a guess right now as to who that will be.

New Orleans Pelicans

How does the wing rotation shake out? 

New Orleans has a lot of talent, but how that talent all fits together is still a question due to them rarely being healthy over the past few seasons. Nowhere are those questions bigger with the wing group.

Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas will start in the frontcourt, with Larry Nance Jr. in reserve. C.J. McCollum is the primary lead guard, with Jose Alvarado and, maybe, Kira Lewis Jr. behind him, along with some on-ball minutes for Dyson Daniels too.

The wing group has talent, but who gets those minutes and in what combinations? Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones will start. Ingram is probably the team’s best all-around player (pending your confidence and belief in Williamson) and Jones is an all-world defender. Behind them, there are a lot more questions.

Had Trey Murphy III been healthy, he would have made the starter question a really interesting one. That’s because he’s ready to start, as he did for most of last season. But that would have pushed someone to the bench. The guess here is that would have been Jones, but maybe Murphy would have played big minutes as a reserve 2-4? As it stands, Murphy’s role and impact on others won’t be known for several weeks, as he recovers from a knee injury.

Naji Marshall is next up, but Daniels will factor in too. Marshall is a known quantity at this point. He’ll play defense, run the floor for buckets and give the Pelicans 20-25 solid minutes a night.

Daniels is still a mystery box. Is he really an on-ball playmaker? Is he a defense-first wing? Will the jumper ever come around? Daniels has a ton of potential, but it’s all still so theoretical. And for a team trying to win, opportunities to hand out “figure it out” minutes are getting fewer and fewer.

Lastly, rookies Jordan Hawkins and E.J. Liddell are going to be players to monitor. Liddell missed all of last season, but he looked really solid at Summer League. Right now, he’s a small four, but if he can get the jumper working, Liddell could be in the wing mix. Hawkins is a scoring guard. He doesn’t have tremendous size, but he’s big enough to play the two. If he’s making shots, Hawkins could push his way into early-season minutes while Murphy is out.

Is backup center an issue? 

Jonas Valanciunas has been remarkably durable, but he’s also 31 years old now and his minutes dropped off to 25 per game last season. If that’s where Valanciunas is now, the Pelicans need a reliable option behind him.

Larry Nance Jr. can soak up some backup minutes at the five, but will he hold up all season long? Playing Zion Williamson as a small-ball five has been done in spurts, but there are questions there too. That seems like a very low-usage thing, if we see much of it at all.

The Pelicans signed Cody Zeller in free agency, following the vet’s late-season career rebirth with the Miami Heat. If Zeller can give the Pelicans 10-15 minutes a night in the regular season, it would keep the wear and tear off Nance. Once the playoffs roll around, if Zeller is productive, he can stick. If not, New Orleans can shrink the rotation and go smaller behind Valanciunas.

San Antonio Spurs

Who is the fifth starter? 

We can safely plug in the following four players as starters for the Spurs most nights: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins and Tre Jones. The first two are the team’s best building blocks. Collins is going to start at the five, because San Antonio wants to keep Wembanyama at the four. And Jones is the best (only?) pure point guard on the roster.

The easiest answer for the fifth starter is Keldon Johnson. He’s been a starter for the last three seasons, and Johnson has improved each year he’s been in the NBA. He’ll probably get the first crack at starting, and he should. Johnson is good.

But Jeremy Sochan is coming. As a rookie, Sochan started 53 of the 56 games he played. His season was up-and-down due to injuries, but the potential is very evident. He’s probably the best big perimeter defender that San Antonio has. Sochan is also a better-than-you-think passer, good rebounder and he’s a tricky scorer. If the jumper was better, he’d probably overtake Johnson right now.

Maybe, and who knows what Gregg Popovich will surprise us with, someone else emerges as a starter. The team remains high on Malaki Branham and starting someone like Julian Champagnie just feels like a Pop move. Starting Reggie Bullock would give the team a veteran shooter, as would Doug McDermott. There are a lot of options here, and that will make it a fun competition to monitor throughout the year.

Who gets cut? 

As it stands as of this writing, the Spurs are plus-two in terms of their regular season roster. They have 17 fully guaranteed standard contracts and the regular season maximum is 15 players on standard deals.

Khem Birch seems likely to go, as San Antonio has Zach Collins, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Charles Bassey, and whatever minutes Victor Wembanyama gets in the pivot, at center. Birch was more or less a throw-in to make the Jakob Poeltl trade work, so he’s probably one of the cuts.

The other one isn’t so cut and dry. Maybe it’s a competition between Reggie Bullock and Cedi Osman, where one stays and one goes. The team has nothing invested in either player, as both were acquired as part of salary-dumping trades this past summer.

If the Spurs feel they’ve seen what they need from Charles Bassey, and they want more wing options, he could be let go. Devonte’ Graham would be a surprise, but he’s not exactly entrenched as a part of the future in San Antonio either. Some have even suggested it could be a surprise like Doug McDermott, but that doesn’t seem as likely.

There’s also a chance the Spurs hold everyone and see if a need develops elsewhere for a trade opportunity. That could involve Birch, Bullock, Osman, Graham or McDermott as an outgoing veteran.

 

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NBA Southeast Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithSeptember 25, 2023

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so.

Atlanta Hawks

Who replaces John Collins in the starting lineup? 

It seems like Atlanta prepared for this eventuality when they acquired Saddiq Bey at last season’s trade deadline. Bey started in seven of the 25 games he played for the Hawks after being acquired. Bey put together his most efficient play of his career by far in those 25 games. He shot 47% overall, including 40% on five three-point attempts per game.

Bey and De’Andre Hunter aren’t really the classic forward combo, as both are more of a three than a four. But in the modern, switchable NBA, the Hawks should be fine starting these two together. One minor note: Bey and Hunter played 198 minutes together over 20 regular season games. Atlanta was -13 in those minutes. Not exactly a big enough sample size to worry about, but something to keep an eye on.

If Bey doesn’t start, Atlanta’s other options seem to be Bogdan Bogdanovic or Jalen Johnson. The former is unlikely, as Atlanta would be very small with Bogdanovic starting. He’s also a terrific sixth man, and the team can control his minutes (and wear and tear) easier in a bench role.

Johnson took a pretty big leap in his second year. He became semi-regular in the Hawks rotation and he looks poised for a bigger role this season. Johnson will probably play a lot, but when paired with Hunter last season, the Hawks were a whopping -63 in only 138 minutes over 36 games. For whatever reason, that forward grouping didn’t work.

Bet on Bey getting the first crack here, but Quin Snyder has some room to experiment with small-ball lineups. And Johnson is going to see plenty of run too.

Is it time to transition to Onyeka Okongwu as the starting center? 

Clint Capela has started in all but three of the 202 games he’s played with the Hawks over the last three years. He also remains really productive, as one of the NBA’s few nightly double-double guys. But Onyeka Okongwu is knocking on the door of being the starting five.

Capela will probably keep his starting job for this season, but this is getting close to flipping. Assuming Okongwu is extended or re-signed next summer, he’ll be Atlanta’s long-term five. And Capela only has two seasons left on his deal. Last note: In the six-game series against the Boston Celtics, the Hawks were better with Okongwu on the floor than Capela. That seems to be a precursor to where this is heading.

Charlotte Hornets

How does the wing/forward rotation shake out? 

It seems pretty clear that Steve Clifford will start LaMelo Ball at point guard and likely Mark Williams at center. After that, everything is at least somewhat of a question. The Hornets have more talent available than last season, but that creates a lot of questions.

Last year, P.J. Washington, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier III started every game they played. The simple answer could be that those three all return to the starting group, and the returning Miles Bridges and rookie Brandon Miller come off the bench. And that could be the answer to start the season.

Bridges has to serve the final 10 games of his 30-game suspension to start the year. And Miller may be in a spot where the team eases him into the NBA by playing him off the bench. But eventually, Bridges will be back and Miller will need to start. That’s when it gets interesting.

There’s at least a decent chance Hayward will be hurt by the time either of those happens, given his injury history. That could free up a starting spot. The Hornets don’t exactly have great point guard depth, so Rozier could also transition into a high-minute reserve role too. But those are two high-priced veteran players, so that could be a little messy. A bit less-so with Hayward, as he’s in the final year of his contract.

It’s not a bad problem to have, particularly after a lost season where a lot of non-NBA guys saw minutes. But Clifford and the front office have to have a plan for making sure everyone sees the minutes they need, especially Miller.

Who wins the third two-way spot? 

Charlotte seems to be waging a four-way competition for their third two-way spot. Keep an eye on Angelo Allegri, a rookie out of Eastern Washington. He’s the best shooter of the bunch and he showed some increased playmaking ability in his senior year. He’d give a little bit of a different look from Amari Bailey and Leaky Black, who have the Hornets other two-way spots.

Miami Heat

Without Damian Lillard: Does Kyle Lowry start? 

Kyle Lowry officially lost his starting spot to Gabe Vincent after his month-long absence in February into March last season. But he had already ceded a lot of playing time to Vincent before that. Was that some foreshadowing that Lowry’s days as a starting lead guard are over?

Vincent is now gone, but is it as easy as just plugging Lowry back into the starting five? Tyler Herro is capable of taking on increased playmaking reps, and a lot of the offense runs through Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo anyway. Josh Richardson is also back in Miami, and some of his best play came when he ran the offense for the Heat.

Maybe Lowry gets the veteran treatment and starts, but the Heat still have options. Starting Richardson, or an extra shooter in Duncan Robinson, could help juice either end of the floor. Nikola Jovic is also going to get rotation minutes at some point, and there could be a domino effect of players sliding down a position when that happens.

With Damian Lillard: What is the rotation? 

We can’t even really begin to do a projection here, because we have no idea who will still be on the Heat roster if they make a trade for Damian Lillard. We can safely say that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will be there. Offseason signings/re-signings like Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, Kevin Love and Orlando Robinson will all be around too. But that leaves a lot of rotation holes to fill. And the free agent market is just about dried up.

We’re really just presenting this question to note that the early part of the season could be a little rocky for Miami. Not only would they be incorporating a high-usage star in Lillard, which is always an adjustment, but it’s happening without much time to prepare. Remember, it took the Big Three Heat about a month to settle in and to find their groove. It’ll happen for this group too, but probably after a bumpy start.

Orlando Magic

Where do they find minutes for Anthony Black and Jett Howard? 

The Magic drafted the two rookies with the sixth and 11th picks in the 2023 NBA Draft. That’s a sign that the team is high on both players, but that might be a long-term thing. Right now, it’s hard to see how Black or Howard crack the rotation.

Orlando has a deep guard group with Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs as the presumed starters, and Cole Anthony and Gary Harris as the first backcourt players off the bench. Black comes in as an on-ball playmaker, so he’s got to work through that crowd.

Howard is a wing, which means he’s not only battling against Suggs and Harris for off-guard minutes, but also Franz Wagner (entrenched as a building block on the wing), veteran addition Joe Ingles and returners like Caleb Houstan and Chuma Okeke. Howard should be ahead of the last two, but playing over the first two seems like a bit of a stretch.

This isn’t really a problem. Orlando can make both players earn minutes, as opposed to being gifted them because of draft status. The bet here is that Black’s defense (and probably some injuries in the guard rotation) gets him on the floor first. But eventually, Howard’s shooting ability should see him get some run for a Magic team light on that particular skill.

Who wins the third two-way spot? 

The Magic have three players with NBA experience coming to camp and all three could snag the third two-way spot. Mac McClung will be the fan favorite, as his exciting style of play will have fans wanting more. The 2023 Dunk Contest champion would also help with the G League Magic’s debut in Osceola County this season.

Trevelin Queen has the best size of the three camp players. He’s been a dominant scorer in the G League, which would be a nice mix with defense-first players Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield on the other two two-way spots.

Brandon Williams has the most NBA experience, as he started 16 games for the Portland Trail Blazers at the end of the 2022 season. He’s a little undersized, but Williams can score and is a developing playmaker.

Washington Wizards

Who is the backup center and how does that impact roster cuts? 

Washington is in the midst of a full-scale rebuild. All of the offseason movement has left the Wizards a little thin up front. We’re assuming Daniel Gafford reclaims the starting center spot. Gafford wasn’t bad last season, but Kristaps Porzingis was better and playing the two together was messy. So, count on Gafford being a bigger part of things this season.

Behind him, Washington has to figure things out. Mike Muscala was acquired in the Porzingis trade, but he’s not a lock to make the roster. The Wizards have to cut at least two players with fully guaranteed contracts, and Muscala isn’t likely a part of what they’re building.

That leaves backup center options to players like Taj Gibson (who was recently re-signed for his 15th NBA season), Xavier Cooks and…yeah. Because of that, Muscala could stick and Washington could clear the roster in another way.

Muscala would be a nice contrast to Gafford. He’s mostly a spot-up shooter, where Gafford exclusively works in the paint. Gibson is fine, because you know he’ll defend and rebound for about 10 minutes per game. Cooks is the most intriguing, if undersized option.

Cooks only played 10 NBA games after his late-season signing, but his numbers from the past four seasons in Australia are really encouraging. He plays bigger than his 6-foot-8 frame. Cooks is a rugged rebounder and can block some shots. He’s also a good passer, especially if he’s playing out of the high post area. The jumper is inconsistent, but Cooks will take a couple per game. Playing Cooks would be the non-conventional option, but why not experiment when you’re rebuilding?

How does the wing rotation shake out? 

For a rebuilding team, the Wizards have a lot of those “Hey! I like him!” players. And a lot of those guys are perimeter players. We can safely assume the Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are firmly in the starting five. Who joins them and who else plays real minutes are the real questions.

Deni Avdija started most of last season, and he’s the best defensive wing the Wizards have. Unfortunately, his jumper has never come around. More worrisome? Avdija has taken fewer jumpers from year to year too. 54% of his shots came from in/around the paint, while 40% where from behind the arc. That’s not a terrible shot mix, but that 40% mix of three-pointers is down from 45% the previous season and 54% in Avdija’s rookie season. The mid-range shot numbers have also had a downward trend. That’s an abandonment of the jumper that can’t happen for a player with Avdija’s size/skill mix.

Corey Kispert is the opposite. He’s not a terrible defender, but not in Avdija’s league really either. Offensively, Kispert has tended toward becoming a three-point specialist. 62% of his shots were three-pointers as a rookie. That nudged up to 66% from deep as a sophomore. That’s not bad, because Kispert knocked down 42% of his triples last season. He’ll play, but how much and with who will be worth monitoring.

Landry Shamet is basically Kispert, but with less invested by Washington. They got him as collateral in the trading this summer. He might play, but he’s not going to be given real minutes over players with a future in Washington.

That brings us to Bilal Coulibaly. He’s going to play, because he’s oozing with potential and the Wizards traded up to draft him. If he knocks down shots, Coulibaly will eventually steal even more playing time from Avdija. And his defensive potential is the best on the roster too.

Last note: Keep an eye on Patrick Baldwin Jr. There’s a lot of talent there. He saw minimal NBA time as a rookie, but he did hit 38% from deep on limited attempts. Baldwin also flashed some skill in 20 G League games. He only turns 21 in mid-November, so there’s lots of room for growth. Don’t give up on him yet, even if his road to playing time is just as messy in Washington as it was with the Warriors.

 

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Worst Deals of the 2023 NBA Offseason

Keith SmithSeptember 18, 2023

Last week we published the Best Deals of the 2023 NBA Offseason. In an effort to be balanced (and maybe to prove that the author doesn’t actually “love every deal”!), we’re presenting the Worst Deals of the 2023 Offseason.

But there’s a pretty major caveat with this one: It’s getting really hard to put together “worst deals” lists. NBA teams have simply gotten smarter about signing good contracts. The new CBA may have even more of an impact, as identifying and signing midrange contracts will become more important than ever.

All of that said, this list includes some of the more…let’s say curious…decisions that were made this past summer. Not even all of these were signings. That’s how thin the list of truly bad deals is. Presented in no particular order, the Worst Deals of the 2023 Offseason.

Dillon Brooks – Houston Rockets

Contract: four-years, $86 million

Dillon Brooks tenure with the Memphis Grizzlies ended in ignominy. He ran his mouth until it ran him out of town, with the Grizzlies front office saying there was no way he’d be returning. That saw some suggest that Brooks would be lucky to sign for anywhere from the MLE to the minimum, to some even suggesting he should start learning Chinese.

All of that hyperbole proved to be just that. Brooks landed one of the bigger deals for a player who changed teams this summer. And that contract just kept growing from the initial four-years, $80 million report to the final four-years, $90 million reports. Instead, the contract settled right in the middle at $86 million, with some incentives baked in.

Was Dillon Brooks overpaid by the Houston Rockets? Yes. Is the contract an egregious, cap-clogging calamity? No. Not even close, really.

Based on his defensive ability alone, Brooks was going to get an MLE deal. He’s an All-Defense guy. To suggest less than the MLE was foolishness of the highest order. And, while he’s an inefficient gunner at his worst, he’s not a terrible offensive player. Brooks should settle in as the fourth or fifth offensive option for the Rockets most nights. In games where guys are out, Brooks can, and will, score more. It might not be pretty, but he can do it.

Mostly, this contract was the kind that Houston had to hand out, if they are serious about moving the rebuild forward. Brooks, along with Fred VanVleet and others, will help a very young team grow up. He’ll also inject some confidence in a group where that wavered at times. That’s part of the culture Ime Udoka is attempting to build. But the contract was still an overpay, even if not the tremendous mistake many have painted it out to be.

Jerami Grant – Portland Trail Blazers

Contract: five-years, $160 million

Jerami Grant re-signing with the Portland Trail Blazers needs a whole lot of context. When reports of Grant’s deal came out, the initial response was “Well, hopefully that helps the Blazers keep Damian Lillard.” When reports came out shortly thereafter that Lillard asked for a trade, the responses were “Dame took one look at Grant’s contract and asked out!”

Grant re-signing and Lillard’s situation are probably fairly independent, but there’s at least a couple of strings tying them together. It’s doubtful that Grant re-signing caused Lillard to ask for a trade. That’s not usually how it works. It’s not as if Portland was signaling that they chose Grant over Lillard in any way.

On the flip side, re-signing Grant was likely something the Trail Blazers were ok with, without any dependency on what Lillard chose. But…the Blazers probably hoped that bringing back a key vet would entice Lillard to stick around.

So, where does that leave us? Well, Lillard hasn’t been traded, and there are no signs that Joe Cronin is budging off the massive return he wants for his star guard. And Grant is still signed to a deal that averages $32 million a year.

 Let’s start there. That’s really not a bad value for Grant at all. He’s miscast when he’s a team’s primary offensive engine. When he’s the second, or even better, third option, he’s actually really good. If Grant can cede the offensive lift to younger options like Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe or Anfernee Simons, he’ll be an efficient player for the Blazers.

What makes this one of the worst deals is that the Portland is going to trade Damian Lillard. Whether it happens before this season starts, in-season or next summer, it’s going to happen. At that point, the Trail Blazers are rebuilding. And, like we saw with the Detroit Pistons, you don’t need Jerami Grant leading the rebuild at north of $30 million per season. Circumstances matter, and they turned on Portland in a pretty rough way with this re-signing.

Bradley Beal – Phoenix Suns

Contract: four-years, $208 million remaining

This one wasn’t a signing, as you very likely know. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a curious trade acquisition, given the fit, injury history and money owed for Bradley Beal.

The Phoenix Suns had one shot to cash in on a Chris Paul trade. They did it this summer, but they could have waited and taken it into the season. Nothing in Paul’s situation was likely to change all that much. Even if he’s still productive, he was seen a contractual means to an end, as much as an on-court plus. At least, that’s how the Washington Wizards saw it. Washington acquired Paul as much to shed Beal’s contract, as they did to then flip Paul in the subsequent Jordan Poole trade with the Golden State Warriors.

Back to the Suns…what is the plan here? Phoenix doesn’t have an established point guard on the roster. Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are all plus-passers for their positions, but none have truly led an offense as the primary plate-setter. Maybe Beal can do it. Maybe Booker will do it. But someone has to. They can’t all maintain their score-first nature.

And then you have Beal’s lengthy injury history and the $208 million he’s owed over the next four years. No contract is untradable, we’ve long-since learned that lesson, but this one is rough, and will only get rougher as the years go along. Phoenix is locked into this group now. For better or worse, for at least the next year or two, this is what it is. Maybe it goes spectacularly well, and the Suns win that long-awaited title. But there are just as many multiverses where this all falls apart and Phoenix is stuck fixing a messy cap sheet for years.

Reggie Jackson – Denver Nuggets

Contract: two-years, $10 million

Is $5 million a year for Reggie Jackson going to break the Denver Nuggets? Absolutely not. It just feels unnecessary, and like Denver let a potential signing tool go to waste. Especially with a player option on the second season.

Jackson has the look and feel of a veteran minimum player at this point in his career. That’s fine. Almost everyone ends up there at some point. Conversely, the Nuggets are capped out and dancing around the second tax apron. Their only real signing tool this summer was the $5 million Taxpayer MLE. Why give it to Jackson?

At best, Jackson will be the regular backup point guard and will allow Denver to spot Jamal Murray rest in games, if not entire games off, when he needs it. At worst, Jackson will be at the end of the bench, not playing, while other value signings around the league are getting run for good teams.

We’ll take this opportunity to caveat something: It’s entirely likely that Denver gave Jackson this contract with the idea of him being a piece of salary-matching in a trade. Jackson waived his ability to block a trade (he has an implied no-trade clause, because he’s effectively on a one-year deal with Early Bird rights after), so that potential stumbling block is removed. Because the Nuggets have managed to stay about $4.7 million clear of the second tax apron, they have enough wiggle room to add some salary in trade without tripping any of the harsher penalties that hit super tax teams. If that’s the case, bravo to Calvin Booth and the Nuggets front office. Until then, this just looks like an overpay and the loss of a potentially valuable signing exception.

Kristaps Porzingis – Boston Celtics

Contract: three-years, $96 million

When the Boston Celtics acquired Kristaps Porzingis at the start of the offseason, reports came quickly after that they would sign him to an extension. And they sure did, at the price of $60 million tacked onto the $36 million Porzingis was already owed.

If, and it’s a massive if, Porzingis can stay healthy AND if, another big if, he fits well next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, this deal is fine. Porzingis was awesome last season. He was terrific on offense and turned in the best defensive season of his career. He also stayed mostly healthy, as his missed games at the end of the season were more about Washington’s ping pong balls than Porzingis’ health.

But…he’s already hurt. Porzingis had to bow out of the FIBA World Cup due to plantar fasciitis. That’s not a great way to start his tenure with the Celtics, and it’s something that could linger. And the fit questions will be there until we see it work. And it needs to work in the playoffs, not just the regular season. Boston is well past regular season wins being a meaningful barometer of success.

Add it up, and $60 million for an already expensive, and only getting more expensive by the year, team was quite the risky commitment. And, as many have pointed it out, why not see how it all worked first? This extension would have been there all the way until the end of June.

Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

Contract: three-years, $60 million

This one isn’t about the contract, as much as it’s about the direction of the franchise. Nikola Vucevic is worth $20 million a season. That’s true no matter how much you bring up his defense. He’s durable, he rebounds and he’s very good on offense. That’s a $20 million player all day.

But where exactly are the Chicago Bulls going? Does this extension lift them by having Vucevic locked in? The answers are “Who knows?” and “Not really.”

And that’s why you don’t sign good-but-not-great players to extensions like this. If Vucevic was the final piece to a team on the verge of title contention, extend away. But this team looks like it could break up fairly soon. Maybe even as soon as this season. Then what? It’s all just needlessly messy.

Last thing: Why not frontload this extension for Vucevic? The Bulls could have given him the same $60 million, but had it decline year-to-year. That way as Vucevic ages, his salary is more commensurate with his ability and, crucially, his tradability. That was a major miss that has to factor in here, as well.

No Offer Sheets – San Antonio Spurs

Contract: None

Fine, this is cheating, but sometimes the worst things are missed opportunities. That was the case with the San Antonio Spurs this offseason.

The Spurs had over $30 million in cap space this summer. They used that $30 million to come away with exactly zero long-term rotation players. And they didn’t even acquire great assets by renting out their cap space either. A couple of vets may stick for this season, but the chances of them being a part of the next great Spurs team are very, very small.

It’s fair to point out that the free agent class wasn’t a great one. Inevitably, someone will say “Did you want San Antonio to do what Houston did?” And that’s a reasonable question. But the Spurs weren’t under the same pressure to add win-now pieces, which is where the strategy differs.

And that strategy mostly falls at the feet of not making any of the incumbent teams sweat with a restricted free agent offer sheet. The most-talked-about example was with Austin Reaves. San Antonio could have forced the Los Angeles Lakers to match a nearly $100 million offer sheet, and to take on the wonky cap hits that would have come with matching. But the Spurs left Reaves dangling for too long, and he eventually re-sign with the Lakers.

They also stayed away from Herb Jones, who in fairness likely had a prearranged deal with the New Orleans Pelicans when they declined their team option. Cam Johnson could have made some sense. Grant Williams and P.J. Washington certainly made sense. Even Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White could have made sense for point guard-thin Spurs.

Mostly, this was a chance for San Antonio to do that second big thing, after drafting Victor Wembanyama. Instead, they just punted on it to act as a clearinghouse for cap- and tax-strapped teams, without coming away with any choice assets for doing so.

Rui Hachimura – Los Angeles Lakers

Contract: three-years, $51 million

Rui Hachimura was a revelation for the Los Angels Lakers after they acquired him in January. The regular season saw him do fine, but Hachimura really took off in the playoffs. He was one of the Lakers most consistent scorers during their run to the Western Conference Finals.

It wasn’t a surprise that the Lakers wanted to re-sign Hachimura. What was surprising was giving him $51 million fully guaranteed over three seasons. Who exactly was Los Angeles bidding against? Maybe another team would have given Hachimura the Non-Taxpayer MLE, but even that seems a stretch, given how that exception was utilized around the league this summer.

To be fair, Hachimura isn’t grossly overpaid. He’s still very tradable at an AAV of $17 million. But for a team that is locking into a good amount of long-term money, every dollar matters. And the Lakers added several million more dollars here than they needed to.

Donte DiVincenzo – New York Knicks

Contract: four-years, $47 million

This is another deal where the value is fine, but the fit is a little weird. Roughly $12 million AAV for DiVincenzo is fine. He’s a good player, and he’ll hold less-than-MLE value throughout the life of this contract. But where’s he going to play?

The Knicks backcourt currently features returning starters Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes. Immanuel Quickley is one of the best sixth men in the NBA. RJ Barrett starts at the three, but he might be best as a big two. Josh Hart can play the two, even if he’s kind of the pseudo backup four for New York.

That’s five quality guys who at least sort of overlap with DiVincenzo positionally. Oh, and Evan Fournier is still around too, even if he’s just a contract for the Knicks at this point. Suffice it to say, that’s a lot of guys.

The Knicks never really filled Obi Toppin’s spot as the backup power forward. As we’ve talked about before, that’s only about a 10-minute per game role behind Julius Randle, and Hart probably fills it. But if Randle goes down with an injury, there isn’t a real backup four on the roster. New York could have spent some of the money they gave DiVincenzo to fill that hole instead.

Now, if DiVincenzo is cover in case things go sideways with extension discussions with Quickley, that’s one thing. But that would bring up a whole other set of problems for New York that we don’t really need to get into right now, and hopefully won’t ever need to, for the Knicks sake.

Russell Westbrook – LA Clippers

Contract: two-years, $8 million

Russell Westbrook played really well for the LA Clippers down the stretch of last season. He shot it better than anytime since his prime OKC days, and he did everything else you want too. His efficiency dropped in the playoffs, but by the end of the first-round series with the Phoenix Suns, Westbrook was kind of all the Clippers had going for them.

Re-signing Westbrook was fine and a bit of a no-brainer. He earned a new deal, and the Clippers had no other established point guard options. But why did LA have to do a two-year deal for more than the minimum? This deal only pays Westbrook slightly more than a veteran minimum deal would have, but that means it comes without any of the NBA subsidy that allows for lessened tax hit.

On top of that, the 26-game sample of Westbrook with the Clippers was really good, but it was just 26 games. Is that repeatable for a team with title aspirations? Was it worth giving Westbrook two years AND a player option?

Lastly, LA didn’t get Westbrook to waive the de facto no-trade clause that comes with this deal. That means they’ll need his permission to trade him. And that sort of removes the benefit of upping Westbrook’s contract value in the first place. It probably won’t matter, but this was messier than need be.

 

nba nba free agency

Best Deals of the 2023 NBA Offseason

Keith SmithSeptember 15, 2023

The NBA offseason is just about over. In approximately two weeks teams will report to training camp. Preseason games are only three weeks or so away from tipping off. Yes, we’re still waiting to see if Damian Lillard and/or James Harden see their wishes fulfilled and they are traded. Just in case you spent the last couple of months off the grid or something.

With that in mind, we’re going to look back at the best contracts signed during the 2023 offseason. We’ll also have a companion piece for the worst deals of the 2023 offseason. Spoiler alert: It’s getting harder and harder to put together a worst deals list. Teams simply aren’t inking as many head-scratching contracts anymore.

These contracts are presented in no particular order. They are simply the ten best contracts of the summer, with a couple of smuggles (shout out to House of R on The Ringer!) factored in.

Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

Contract: five-years, $197 million rookie scale extension

Technically, Desmond Bane didn’t get a maximum extension from the Memphis Grizzlies. His first-year salary is set to come in just under the max. But Memphis used the new CBA and the ability to give Bane a five-year, non-max deal. In previous CBAs, non-max extensions were limited to four seasons.

Bane is terrific and only getting better. Of Memphis’ big three of him, Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., Bane is the most reliable player. Morant has off-court issues he has to figure out and Jackson has been injury-prone. Bane is also a very good on- and off-ball player on offense, a rugged defender and a burgeoning playmaker. A max deal would have been fine. Getting him for less than the max is a huge win for the Grizzlies.

Cameron Johnson – Brooklyn Nets

Contract: four-years, $94.5 million

Cam Johnson was putting together a breakout season when he got hurt with the Phoenix Suns in early-November. He was traded to the Brooklyn Nets after a handful games following his return from injury. With Brooklyn, Johnson really took off.

Johnson has always been a solid spot-up shooter, but he’s shown more off-the-dribble game over the past two seasons. With the Nets, he ticked his free throw attempts up to 3.5 per game. That’s a sign he’s creating more offense for himself. In addition, there are about $14 million in unlikely incentives in Johnson’s deal. The Nets also structured it to decline over the next two seasons, which will give the team some increased cap flexibility.

Kyrie Irving – Dallas Mavericks

Contract: three-years, $120 million

This one might surprise you, as your intrepid author here has been an outspoken critic of Irving’s over the years. But fair is fair, and this is a really solid contract. The Dallas Mavericks didn’t give Kyrie Irving the max in terms of dollars or years. For a player of his caliber, that’s a massive win.

Irving has had a lot of issues, both with injuries and off-court decisions, that have caused him to miss games. Dallas is more or less protected here if that happens again. The deal is short enough, and under the max salary-wise, that the Mavs can trade him fairly easily.

If we stick to on-court production, Irving remains an excellent player. He’s an annual 50/40/90 threat, and fills up the scoring column with ease. The defensive fit alongside Luka Doncic is messy, but that’s something for Jason Kidd and the front office to figure out by putting the right guys around the stars. Irving will deliver scoring and playmaking in droves…for however long he’s on the court.

Seth Curry – Dallas Mavericks

Contract: two-years, $8 million

Let’s stay in Dallas for a minute… What happened here? The Dallas Mavericks stole Seth Curry in free agency. This is barely above a veteran minimum deal. Complete larceny by the Mavs.

Sure, Curry is 33 years old and he’s had some injury challenges over the last few years, but he’s one of the best shooters in the league. You know what you want around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving? Shooting. OK…3&D guys ideally, but if you have to pick one way, grabbing an elite shooter never hurts. Since he became an NBA rotation regular in 2015-16, Curry has never shot 40% from behind the arc. A straight up theft for Dallas at $4 million per season. And the second year isn’t even fully guaranteed!

Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers and Herb Jones – New Orleans Pelicans

Contract: four-years, $54 million

Our first smuggle! (Again, shouts to House of R and The RIngerverse for being outstanding fandom/genre shows!)

Austin Reaves and Herb Jones signed matching deals, with one minor exception. Reaves got a player option on his fourth season, while Jones is on a straight four-year deal. But both are tremendous values for what they bring their respective teams.

Reaves earned the player option by proving himself in the postseason. As rookie, there were signs that Reaves was going to be a good rotation player, but the Lakers were terrible. That meant it was all hand-waved away with “good stats, bad team” and “late-season success means nothing” claims. But as a sophomore, Reaves broke out. He’s equally as good on- or off-ball. He can make plays for others, while also creating his own offense. In the playoffs, Reaves proved capable of lifting his play. Getting him for an average salary just above the Non-Taxpayer MLE, is a ridiculous value.

Jones is already one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, if not the best. He’s the NBA version of a shutdown corner that the Pelicans can deploy on the opponent’s best offensive player and feel good about. Jones has added a little bit more to his offensive game too. He’s showing improved passing acumen, along with being a sneaky offensive rebounder. If the shot can nudge up to the mid- to high-30% range, then Jones will make considerably more on his next contract. For now, he’s a great value simply because of his defensive skills.

Max Strus – Cleveland Cavaliers

four-years, $62 million (after sign-and-trade from Miami)

The Cleveland Cavaliers fell short for a couple of reasons in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. They got bullied on the boards, but the Cavs also couldn’t make three-pointers. Enter Max Strus.

Over the past few years, Strus has become one of the preeminent movement shooters in the NBA. There may be no better player in the league at running hard into a pass, catching, turning and shooting all in one motion. The Miami Heat had great success with running Strus on baseline and wing sets where he’d sprint into his shots and get square from ridiculous angle. He’s not a great defender, but Strus holds his own. Mostly, his shooting should help open up the floor for Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland on drives, and for Evan Mobley to work from the mid-post area. For roughly $15.5 million a season, that’s well worth it for Cleveland.

Orlando Robinson – Miami Heat

Contract: two-years, minimum

The rules are pretty loose when you do a “best and worst contracts” series, but one general rule is to skip over minimum deals. Unless they provide tremendous value, either in immediacy or upside. Orlando Robinson returning to the Miami Heat on a two-year, minimum deal represents the latter for sure, and possibly the former.

We have to do a heavy dose of projecting here, but let’s get a little reckless! Robinson has a total of 47 professional games on his ledger, 31 in the NBA and 16 in the G League. The NBA games show us a snippet of a guy who could be a high-end rebounder and finisher, with some defensive potential. The G League games expand on that, while also adding a glimpse of some outside shooting potential. Combine that with some encouraging college production and some really encouraging Summer League production and, whew boy, do we have a player!

And, lest we forget, we need to factor in the Heat of it all. How many players need to come through their G League, two-way, end-of-roster spots before we just buy in from the start? Grab your Robinson stock now and thank us later.

Gabe Vincent – Los Angeles Lakers

Contract: three-years, $33 million

Hey! Look at that! Another Miami Heat success story! (That’s how you do a transition, my friends!)

Gabe Vincent, like Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and we’re betting Orlando Robinson, was a find by Miami. With the Heat looking in a northwesterly direction for the future of their point guard position, Vincent slipped off to the Los Angeles Lakers for less than the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

After flashing in his first meaningful minutes in 2020-21, Vincent stepped up in his third season in 2021-22. Last year, he took the starting point guard spot from Kyle Lowry. Yes, even before Lowry started missing time midseason. Nothing jumps off the page for Vincent stat-wise, but you have to watch him play to get the full picture. He can create his own shot; he’s a solid on-ball defender and we’re betting there’s more playmaking ability in there too. $11 million per season is a terrific value for a high-minute backup guard, and there’s a good chance he’ll start plenty too.

Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks

Middleton Contract: three-years, $95 million

Lopez Contract: two-years, $48 million

Another smuggle! These two are hard to pull apart, but there’s really no reason to either. Both Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez were strongly rumored to be considering deals that would have seen them leave the Milwaukee Bucks. That usually results in a situation where their team has to overpay them to stay. Didn’t happen here for either player.

Middleton took considerably less than he could have gotten as a free agent. Heck, he took less in first-year salary than his player option was worth for next season. Yes, age and injuries are starting to become concerns. But when he’s on the court, Middleton is Milwaukee’s second-best offensive weapon. He’s good as a spot-up guy, and he’s good off the bounce. He also excels at secondary creation. His defense has slipped a bit, but he can still hold his own against the vast majority of wings. That’s all worth a deal that averages about $33 million or so.

Lopez has been awesome since signing with Milwaukee. He’s been a top-tier rim protector and his offensive game fits perfectly with the other Bucks. Maybe last year was one final contract push, but we’ll bet that Lopez continues to give Milwaukee high-end starting center production. For $25 million and then $23 million, that’s a bargain.

Oh, and because this is reportedly a thing now, these are the kind of re-signings it might take to convince Giannis Antetokounmpo to stick around in Milwaukee for a while longer.

Jevon Carter – Chicago Bulls

Contract: three years, $19.5 million

We’re generally used to the Chicago Bulls showing up on the other side of “best and worst” contract lists. And they’ll feature in the companion piece, to be sure. But signing Jevon Carter to this contract was one of the steals of the summer.

There’s no reason Carter should have bounced around as much as he has. He had a solid rookie season with the Memphis Grizzlies, two good years with the Phoenix Suns, and then was productive for both the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks. Carter is arguably one of the best on-ball pests in the NBA. He doesn’t do some of the flashy stuff that others do, but he’s just always there. A consistent nuisance, akin to that just-quick-enough-to-avoid-getting-swatted mosquito at the July barbecue.

In addition to his defense, Carter has become a very good shooter. He’s a bit better on spot-up shots, but he’s pretty dangerous off-the-dribble too. That’s a nice mix of skills to have, considering he’ll play a lot with DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. For $6.5 million a year, or roughly half of the Non-Taxpayer MLE, that’s a great value for the Bulls.

 

nba nba free agency

2023 NBA Offseason Recap: Northwest Division

Keith SmithSeptember 07, 2023

NBA training camps open in about a month. Yet, we’re still waiting to see when (if?) Damian Lillard or James Harden gets traded. One situation has been curiously quiet, while the other has been contentiously loud. But both Lillard and Harden remain in Portland and Philadelphia, respectively.

While the Trail Blazers and 76ers wait out superstar trades, everyone else is filling out training camp rosters at this point. That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Southeast Division, Pacific Division and Southwest Division already. Next up: The Northwest Division!

Denver Nuggets

Players Returning (12)

Christian Braun, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie (two-way), Aaron Gordon, Reggie Jackson, Nikola Jokic, DeAndre Jordan, Jaman Murray, Zeke Nnaji, Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson

Players Added (6)

 Justin Holiday, Jay Huff (two-way), Braxton Key (two-way), Jalen Picket, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson

Players Lost (5)

Bruce Brown, Thomas Bryant, Jeff Green, Ish Smith, Jack White (two-way)

Roster Openings

None.

Cap/Tax Status

Denver is $4.7 million under the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining

The Nuggets only have minimum contracts available to offer free agents.

Biggest Move of the Summer

The champs are mostly running it back. They lost a couple of key rotation players, but are ready to elevate younger players into their positions. There were no major free agent or trade additions. In fact, the Nuggets added only one established NBA player on a standard contract, and Justin Holiday isn’t a lock to play rotation minutes.

That leaves the biggest moves as some draft maneuvering to add three players that Denver hopes will eventually take on rotation roles. Julian Strawther is probably the closest to NBA-ready, but he’s in a bit of a crowded wing mix. Jalen Picket could snag a backup guard spot in a somewhat thin backcourt. Hunter Tyson will probably have a developmental season, including lots of time spent in the G League.

Work To Do

The Nuggets roster is complete for the start of the season. Now, it’s about Michael Malone figuring out his rotation. Christian Braun will presumably pick up some more minutes in place of Bruce Brown. Veteran Justin Holiday will battle with rookie Julian Strawther and Jalen Picket, along with second-year player Peyton Watson, for perimeter minutes.

Up front, the situation is even more interesting. Jeff Green was the primary backup big for Denver when it mattered most. The most likely replacement for Green is Zeke Nnaji, who has come and gone from Malone’s rotation the last few seasons. Vlatko Cancar looked poised for a bigger role, but he tore his ACL over the summer and will likely miss the entire season. DeAndre Jordan is back too, but relying on him at this point is pretty questionable. This is a spot where the Denver could look to upgrade in-season.

Lastly, Jamal Murray is extension-eligible. He’s got two years left on his deal, and he’s showing signs of breaking through as an All-Star. If Murray thinks he can reach All-NBA at any point in the next two seasons, he might hold off and wait to see if he can really cash in on a Designated Veteran Extension. But he’s also had a serious knee injury, so the allure of locking in long-term money will be there too. Keep an eye on this one, as the rest of Denver’s core group is signed through 2025-26.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Players Returning (12)

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Luka Garza (two-way), Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Jordan McLaughlin, Josh Minott, Wendell Moore Jr., Naz Reid, Karl-Anthony Towns

Players Added (4)

Troy Brown Jr., Jaylen Clark (two-way), Leonard Miller, Shake Milton

Players Lost (5)

Nathan Knight (two-way), Jaylen Nowell, Taurean Prince, Austin Rivers, Matt Ryan (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 standard roster spot and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Minnesota is roughly $2.4 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Timberwolves have $3.4 million remaining of the Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing Anthony Edwards to a five-year, maximum contract rookie scale extension. Edwards is rapidly becoming the Wolves franchise player. Karl-Anthony Towns probably still holds that title for now, but Edwards is really close to snatching that moniker. And deservedly so. Edwards is an offensive superstar, and has plenty of room to improve as a playmaker for others and as a defender. All the signs are there that he’ll continue to grow into his role as a superstar.

Minnesota also extended Naz Reid, which was an interesting move. On one hand, Minnesota got Reid on a very fair value of almost $14 million AAV for three years. That’s essentially MLE money, which Reid is well worth. On the other hand, the Timberwolves already have Towns and Rudy Gobert signed for a combined AAV of $90M over the next three seasons. That’s a lot of money locked up in three guys who are all best when playing center.

In free agency, the Wolves added Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton, and re-signed Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Those are all solid depth moves for the perimeter rotation behind Edwards and 16-year veteran Mike Conley.

Work To Do

Minnesota already has a whopping $151 million committed for 2024-25, with max extensions kicking in for Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. But that shouldn’t keep Tim Connelly from extending Jaden McDaniels. We predicted a rookie scale extension of $100 million over four years for McDaniels ahead of the offseason. He should have made the All-Defense team last season, and McDaniels is a better-than-you-think offensive player. He’s an ideal running mate for Edwards and Towns long-term. The Wolves have a soaring payroll, but McDaniels should be extended.

Beyond that, Minnesota has a couple of roster spots to fill. They’ll sign at least one more player to a standard deal, which should allow them to squeak in under the luxury tax line for this season. And one more two-way player will be signed too. From there, it’s about trying to keep everyone healthy and getting off to a good start in a very important season for the franchise.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Returning (15)

Ousmane Dieng, Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Joe, Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Olivier Sarr (two-way), Lindy Waters III (two-way), Aaron Wiggins, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams

Players Added (6)

Davis Bertans, Keyontae Johnson (two-way), Vasilije Micic, Victor Oladipo, Cason Wallace, Jack White

Players Lost (2)

Jared Butler (two-way), Dario Saric

Roster Openings

None

Cap/Tax Status

Oklahoma City is $15.5 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Thunder have only minimum contracts to offer to free agents.

Biggest Move of the Summer

We’re going to cheat a little here and split this section three ways.

At the draft, the Thunder moved up to get Cason Wallace. This continues a trend of Sam Presti moving up in drafts to get a targeted player. The Oklahoma City guard group is pretty flush with talented players, but Wallace brings a defensive bulldog mentality to that group. And NBA teams have often done well when betting on guards out of Kentucky.

The Thunder also finally brought Vasilije Micic over from Europe. Again, the guard group is pretty stacked, so where Micic fits in will be interesting to monitor. But having him on a three-year deal gives OKC some time to figure it out.

The third biggest move isn’t really a move at all, but it involves another high-profile rookie joining the squad for games this season, as Chet Holmgren will debut this season. Yes, Holmgren is still a rookie, as he hasn’t appeared in an NBA game. You can argue that until you are a blue in the face, but the NBA says Holmgren is a rookie, as is anyone who hasn’t played in an NBA game.

Moving past that, Holmgren is obviously a huge addition to a team that doesn’t have nearly the talent up front as it does on the wing and in the backcourt. Holmgren should be a Day 1 starter and a terrific fit alongside all of the Thunder’s playmakers.

Work To Do

Oklahoma City is still plus-three in terms of players on the roster. They could cut ties with another veteran or two, or they might be forced to trade or waive some young players they like. The obvious waivers have already been made, now the decisions get a little harder.

Beyond that, it’s now up to Mark Daigneault to find minutes for the 12 or so players on this roster that need/deserve them. That’s among the best “problems” a coach can have heading into a new season.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players Returning (11)

Ibou Badji (two-way), John Butler Jr. (two-way), Jerami Grant, Keon Johnson, Damian Lillard, Nassir Little, Jusuf Nurkic, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, Matisse Thybulle, Jabari Walker

Players Added (4)

Moses Brown, Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray, Rayan Rupert

Players Lost (6)

Drew Eubanks, Kevin Knox, Cameron Reddish, Trendon Watford, Justise Winslow

Roster Openings

2 standard spots and 1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Portland is about $3.3 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

The Trail Blazers have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE remaining, as well as the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Take your pick, but know whatever you choose, it’ll get blown off the board when (if?) Damian Lillard is traded.

Drafting Scoot Henderson is our choice, because that sets the franchise up for what’s next after Lillard. Henderson was considered by many to be the second-best player in the 2023 NBA Draft, and Portland got him with the third pick. Henderson has the look of a future star at point guard. The Trail Blazers can’t ask for me, given they are looking to trade the best player in franchise history, who happens to also be a point guard.

The Blazers biggest move in terms of salary was locking into a five-year, $160 million deal with Jerami Grant in free agency. Whether that move was made to entice Lillard to stay in Portland, or made because the team believes in Grant, it was made. In reality, $32 million AAV is well below Grant’s possible max salary. It’s also perfectly fair value for a guy who is very good, but on the outskirts of being an All-Star. Having Grant will also help a roster that skews extremely young, much like the role Grant played for the Detroit Pistons prior to being traded to the Trail Blazers.

Portland also matched an offer sheet that the Dallas Mavericks gave to Matisse Thybulle. That might seem curious for a team that is heading towards rebuilding, but that misses some important context. First, Thybulle’s deal has an AAV over about $11 million. That’s less than the MLE, and more than a fair value. Second, he’s by far the best defensive player the Blazers have. That matters for teaching a young group how to defend and win.

Work To Do

It’s obviously finding a trade for Lillard. We won’t be disingenuous and suggest that much else matters before training camp starts. Once that’s done, Joe Cronin and Chauncey Billups can sort through what the roster has become and start figuring out the path forward. Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, Kris Murray, and re-signed vets Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle, is a pretty good start on a rebuild. Add to that group whatever comes back in return for Lillard and the Trail Blazers are on their way to a bright future.

Utah Jazz

Players Returning (12)

Ochai Agbaji, Jordan Clarkson, Kris Dunn, Simone Fontecchio, Talen Horton-Tucker, Johnny Juzang (two-way), Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Micah Potter (two-way), Luka Samanic, Collin Sexton

Players Added (6)

John Collins, Keyonte George, Joey Hauser (two-way), Taylor Hendricks, Brice Sensabaugh, Omer Yurtseven

Players Lost (5)

Udoka Azubuike, Vernon Carey Jr., Rudy Gay, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson

Roster Openings

None

Cap/Tax Status

The Jazz are $29.3 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

Utah has the full $7.7 million Room Exception remaining.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Acquiring John Collins in a salary-dump from the Atlanta Hawks. The Jazz did great to pick up Collins. He’s a very good player, who landed a big contract and then got caught in the swirl on a too-expensive Hawks roster. Utah had a lot of success playing big lineups with Lauri Markkanen at the three, and adding Collins will allow that to continue. He’ll also be a boon to the team’s rebounding, and Collins can slide over play some small-ball five when the Jazz want to go to a more-conventional lineup.

Renegotiating-and-extending Jordan Clarkson was a nice use of cap space for the Jazz. They were able to bump Clarkson’s salary for this season using some room they didn’t need to spend on an outside addition. That added salary sees Clarkson back for two additional seasons through 2025-26 at about $14 million per season. That’s really good work to retain a popular and productive player.

Utah also had an outstanding draft. Taylor Hendricks has all the physical attributes of being a big-time player. He’s got great size and is a very good athlete at the forward position. Playing time could be a bit hard to come by initially, but we’re betting Hendricks is too good to keep off the floor for very long.

Keyonte George looks like a potential steal as the 16th pick. You don’t want to get too excited about Summer League, but George was one of the best players on the court in both Las Vegas and Salt Lake City. He looked comfortable as a scorer and as a playmaker.

Brice Sensabaugh is a project wing. He can score, but needs to round out the rest of his game. He’ll likely log lots of developmental time in the G League this season, which is fine. He’s got good upside and just needs to play to realize it.

Lastly, keep an eye on the Omer Yurtseven addition. Utah has clearly done well developing bigs, and Yurtseven comes with some polish already on him from his time with the Miami Heat. He’s sneakily good on offense, but needs to rebound better and to hold up defensively to play. Well worth the slightly-above the minimum deal that the Jazz gave him.

Work To Do

This roster is finished. That gives Will Hardy and his staff some time to put it all together. The Jazz have a lot of versatility with this group. They can play those three-big lineups with Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler across the frontline, with Kelly Olynyk and Omer Yurtseven in reserve. They could go smaller and work Ochai Agbaji and Taylor Hendricks in on the wing. Simone Fontecchio had a “meh” rookie season, but has looked good for Italy at the World Cup. He might factor into the rotation in his second NBA season. The backcourt has solid depth with rookie Keyonte George joining holdovers Jordan Clarkson, Talen Horton-Tucker, Collin Sexton and Kris Dunn. Hardy will have to get creative to find enough minutes for everyone, but that’s fine.

On the contract front, Markkanen, Horton-Tucker and Olynyk are all extension-eligible. The Jazz look like they’ll have a decent amount of cap space in 2024, so they might hold off on extending Markkanen. Then next summer, Utah and Markkanen can do a renegotiation-and-extension to get him paid like the All-Star he’s become. Horton-Tucker and Olynyk are probably wait-and-see guys, who will probably reach free agency in July.

 

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Next Contract Series: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Keith SmithSeptember 01, 2023

Giannis Antetokounmpo made waves recently when he told The New York Times that he wouldn’t consider an extension with the Milwaukee Bucks until 2024, at the soonest. Antetokounmpo made it clear that he is prioritizing winning, as he moves into the second half of his career. The Bucks superstar wants to be sure that Milwaukee is committed to building a roster, and spending to do so, that can contend for titles.

Essentially, Antetokounmpo is exercising the superstar’s right of putting pressure on his team to keep pushing forward. Antetokounmpo even hinted that if Milwaukee starts talking about a rebuild, that he wants no part of that.

That means that we could be looking at a repeat of 2019 and 2020, when every team in the league was lining up to make a run at Antetokounmpo. Ultimately, he chose to stay with the only NBA home he’s known, and Antetokounmpo signed a Designated Veteran Extension.

The 6-foot-11 forward is now two seasons into that five-year extension he inked in the summer of 2020. Because the NBA was operating under an adjusted calendar due to COVID at the time, Antetokounmpo signed his extension in mid-December. That adjusted calendar, and the resulting carry-over impact, means Antetokounmpo isn’t eligible to sign a new extension with Milwaukee until September 22.

In order to understand what Antetokounmpo’s next contract might look like, we need to look at what he has left on his current deal. Here’s the three years remaining on that Designated Veteran Extension:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (player option)

Because he still has either two or three years left on his deal, Antetokounmpo has a lot of options for how he can handle a new deal with the Bucks. That amount of time left and the player option in 2025-26 gives him the ability to approach extension talks in a number of different directions.

It’s also important to note that Giannis Antetokounmpo now has 10 years of service (How did that happen so quickly? Didn’t he just get to the NBA?). He’s eligible for the maximum amount possible, without any sort of Designated Player language being a factor.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2023

On September 22 when he becomes extension-eligible, Giannis Antetokounmpo has two different options, if he wanted to extend this season. Yes, we know he said he wouldn’t do that, but we want to cover those options to paint a full picture.

Option 1 would see Antetokounmpo exercise his player option for the 2025-26 season and then add two new seasons onto his deal. That would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • Total: five years, $271,447,988
    • New salary: two years, $125,084,960

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds two new seasons and roughly $125 million on his deal. The first season of new money would hit in 2026-27 and is projected at a 35% of the cap maximum salary of $60,137,000. Antetokounmpo would add a second season of new salary at an 8% raise to $64,947,960.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo decline his player option for the 2025-25 season. He would then add three new seasons onto his deal. That would break down like this:

    • 2023-24: $45,640,084
    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,000
    • Total: five years, $271,558,560
    • New salary: three years, $177,130,800

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds three new seasons and roughly $177 million, starting at 35% of the cap in 2025-26 at $54.7 million. In total, he would make slightly more money in Option 2 vs Option 1.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2024

This option is far more likely, if only because Giannis Antetokounmpo told us directly that he wouldn’t consider an extension until 2024. In this case, he again has two different options.

Option 1 sees Antetokounmpo pick up his player for 2025-26. He would then add three years in new salary to his deal. That ends up looking like this:

    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,920
    • Total: five years, $295,566,824
    • New salary: three years, $194,843,880

In this option, the Bucks star adds three years at almost $195 million. He then bumps his total five-year value to about $295.5 million.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo opt out for 2025-26. He would then add four years of new salary to the one year he would have remaining on his deal. That extension looks like this:

    • 2024-25: $48,787,676
    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,000
    • 2028-29: $67,790,800
    • Total: five years, $293,709,276
    • New salary: four years, $244,921,600

This deal comes in slightly shy of the opt-in version. That’s because the cap is projected to go up 10% vs the 8% a player can get in a raise. So, while Antetokounmpo’s 2025-26 salary would be higher, his 2026-27 salary wouldn’t come in quite as high.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2025

Giannis Antetokounmpo could take this into the final year of his contract. In that case, we’d see him opt in for the 2025-25. He could then add four years onto his deal. That would look like this:

    • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,920
    • 2029-30: $74,569,880
    • Total: five years, $321,349,028
    • New salary: four years, $269,413,760

This is the most lucrative option for Antetokounmpo in any extension. That’s because of the addition of a fourth year at roughly $74.5 million. That would push his total contract north of $320 million.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say the Bucks decide things have gotten too expensive, or that some of their players aren’t worth the big money they can command. In this scenario, Milwaukee starts talking about rebuilding, or at least resetting. And Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t having it. He’s ready to see what it’s like playing somewhere else. The max he could sign for with another team would be:

    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $57,403,500
    • 2027-28: $60,137,000
    • 2028-29: $62,870,500
    • Total: four years, $235,081,000

This is a four-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max of $54.7 million with 5% raises. Comparing Year 1 through Year 4 salaries only, this option is about $11.8 million shy of what Antetokounmpo could get by extending with the Bucks outright in 2025 (after opting in).

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say Antetokounmpo plays things out for the next two seasons, opts out, but decides to re-up with Milwaukee in the summer of 2025. He’d be eligible for the largest contract in NBA history. It would look like this:

    • 2025-26: $54,670,000
    • 2026-27: $59,043,600
    • 2027-28: $63,417,200
    • 2028-29: $67,790,800
    • 2029-30: $72,164,400
    • Total: five years, $317,086,000

This contract dwarfs any of the other options. Antetokounmpo would get over $317 million in total money (and that’s off relatively conservative projections right now!). In Year 1 through Year 4 comparisons, Antetokounmpo would make nearly $10 million more by re-signing with the Bucks over leaving Milwaukee. And this is again, slightly less than extending after opting in would be. This is again because cap growth of 10% projects to outpace the maximum 8% raises.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2026

This is the final option we’re going to present, and it’s probably the biggest longshot on the board. Let’s say Giannis Antetokounmpo plays out his full current contract through 2025-26, and then re-signs with Milwaukee on a maximum deal. That contract would look like this:

    • 2026-27: $60,137,000
    • 2027-28: $64,947,960
    • 2028-29: $69,758,000
    • 2029-30: $74,569,880
    • 2030-31: $79,380,840
    • Total: five years, $348,794,600

That’s nearly $350 million in total money for Antetokounmpo on a five-year, max deal. It’s almost an unfathomable amount, but that’s the reality of where we’re headed with these contracts in the new cap environment. This is where we’ll remind everyone that the starting salary of $60,137,000 is still 35% of the cap. That figure doesn’t change. It’s just that the cap is projected to go up somewhere between 4% and 10% every season for the foreseeable future.

Summary

Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to land one of the richest contracts in NBA history, no matter when and where he signs. But there are some important things to note.

First, we covered seasons ranging from 2023-24 (this season) through 2030-31 (eights seasons from now). Here are Antetokounmpo’s ages and years of service in each of those seasons:

    • 2023-24: Age 29, Year 11
    • 2024-25: Age 30, Year 12
    • 2025-26: Age 31, Year 13
    • 2026-27: Age 32, Year 14
    • 2027-28: Age 33, Year 15
    • 2028-29: Age 34, Year 16
    • 2029-30: Age 35, Year 17
    • 2030-31: Age 36, Year 18

Second, Antetokounmpo has already played more than 26,000 minutes in his career. He’s had some relatively serious injuries in the first 10 years of his career too.

When we add those things together, combined with Antetokounmpo’s direct comments on extending, as well as looking at the money at stake, it starts to make a much clearer picture.

We can rule out Antetokounmpo extending when he’s eligible near the end of September. He’s already told us he won’t be doing that.

We probably safely rule out Antetokounmpo playing out the three remaining seasons on his contract and signing a new five-year deal in 2026 too. Given his age, career mileage and injury history, Antetokounmpo won’t leave that much to chance.

We also probably rule out simply playing out his deal with the Bucks, opting out in 2025 and then re-signing with Milwaukee as a free agent. That’s almost as risky as playing out the entire remainder of his deal, and the financial upside really isn’t all that great.

That leaves two real options. Antetokounmpo extends with Milwaukee in 2024. Or he plays out the two final guaranteed seasons on his contract and leaves the Bucks as a free agent in the summer of 2025.

The guess here is Milwaukee will do whatever is necessary over the next two seasons to convince their franchise player that he should stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known. The Bucks can still offer him the most possible money, either via extension or a re-signing. It’s up to them to make him want to stay in Milwaukee.

That leaves only a few real questions:

  1. Will Antetokounmpo opt in for 2025-26 and add three new years? Or will he opt out and add four new years? Bet on the first option, as he’ll likely make more money, and it gets hm back on the market for one more possibly big contract in 2029 heading into his age-35 and Year 17 season.
  2. Will Antetokounmpo take less years than the max he’s able to? He could look to game the system a bit, while also keeping pressure on the Bucks, by extending but adding a year or two fewer than he’s eligible to in an extension. That way he can get back on the market sooner, and potentially cash in even bigger by taking advantage of the year-over-year cap growth.
  3. What moves do the Bucks have to make over the next year to show Antetokounmpo they are serious about staying contenders? First is getting something done to keep Jrue Holiday in Milwaukee. After that, it’s probably being aggressive in trading role players and draft picks (when they are able) to upgrade with top-tier talent. That could leave the team thin depth-wise, but that’s not really the superstar’s problem to worry about. That’s for the front office to figure out, if they want to keep Antetokounmpo in the Good Land green and Cream City cream.

 

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Understanding the James Harden Situation

Keith SmithAugust 23, 2023

James Harden has asked for a trade from the Philadelphia 76ers. Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has set a high asking-price for his All-Star guard. As of this writing in late-August, no trade has materialized.

The lack of a trade, plus maybe some other stuff, has seen Harden publicly call Morey a “liar”. Harden also said that he’ll “never be a part of an organization that Morey is a part of” again.

How did we get here? Where did it all go south? What are the ramifications of what’s happened? Where do Harden and the 76ers go from here? There are a lot of questions, and we hope we can provide some answers and insight.

The History

Ahead of the 2020-21 season, James Harden asked for a trade from the Houston Rockets. Harden correctly read the tea leaves and saw that Rockets were probably heading towards a reset, if not a full rebuild. He didn’t want to be a part of that and asked for a trade.

Harden initially showed up and played great for Houston. His first three games of that season saw him average 37 points and 11 assists per game. But that fell off quickly and in a major way. He played five more uninspiring games for the Rockets, expending precious little effort while doing so. In mid-January (the NBA was still working on an adjusted calendar due to COVID), he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets.

Harden’s happiness in Brooklyn lasted approximately a year. Whether driven by his desire to reunite with Daryl Morey in Philadelphia, or his own frustrations with injuries, or by the circus the Nets had become, Harden wanted out.

After sitting out a couple of games, Harden played twice more for Brooklyn. Harden’s Nets finale in Sacramento was maybe the most checked-out an NBA player has ever been while playing 37 minutes in a game. Harden barely went through the motions and never played for Brooklyn again before being traded ahead of the 2022 trade deadline.

Harden’s first half-season in Philadelphia went fairly well, even if he was clearly still hampered by a hamstring injury. In the 2022-23 season, Harden returned back to his All-Star form, even if he wasn’t named a 2023 All-Star. But it’s what happened in-between those seasons that seemingly caused this latest fracture between player and club.

In the 2022 offseason, Harden opted out of his $47.4 million player option for the 2022-23 season. As a free agent, Harden agreed to a two-year, $68.6 million deal. That two-year agreement included a player option for the 2023-24 season.

Part of the reason Harden willingly took a pay cut of over $14 million for 2022-23 was that it gave the 76ers the ability to sign P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and others, while staying under the tax line. In fact, the NBA found that this was lined up far enough in advance that they docked the Sixers two second-round picks for tampering with P.J. Tucker.

As far as Harden went, the assumption was that he’d play out last season for $33 million, opt out again and sign a max deal with Philadelphia in the summer of 2023. Not so fast, my friend.

As early as Christmas Day of 2022, reports came out that Harden wanted to return to the Rockets. Houston was lined up to have maximum cap space, and an unlikely reunion seemed to be on the table. Again, not so fast, my friend.

Harden didn’t opt out and re-sign with the Sixers. He didn’t opt out and sign with the Rockets either. We don’t know for certain, but it seems Harden got two pieces of information between the end of 2022 and free agency opening in July of 2023.

The first piece of info was that Philadelphia wasn’t going to give him a max deal. The second piece of info seems like it was that Houston was going in a different direction with their cap space. 

At that point, Harden again read the tea leaves and realized that to land in a destination of his liking, it would be easier to pull off via trade than free agency. So, Harden opted in and immediately requested a trade. And here we are.

James Harden’s Contract

James Harden is in the final year of the two-year deal he signed with the Philadelphia 76ers in the summer of 2021. His deal is fully guaranteed for $35,640,000. There are no incentives or trade bonuses in Harden’s deal.

Because the 76ers are currently sitting just over the tax apron, the most they could take back in trade is 110% of Harden’s salary in a deal, plus $250,000. For simplicity’s sake, that’s $39,454,000.

It’s also important to note that any team that trades Harden will not be able to extend his contract. Because he signed a two-year deal, Harden is not extension-eligible. If traded, he’ll play out this season and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

The Overall Situation

Now that we understand the history and what James Harden’s contract is, where are we at exactly?

Harden is still a member of the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers have publicly said that they expect him to report for training camp in October. Harden has made it known that he has no intention of doing that, and that he still expects a trade.

The NBA hit Harden with a $100,000 fine (the maximum allowable for a single transgression) for “indicating that he would not perform the services called for under his player contract unless traded to another team”. The league could have hit Harden with a $150,000 fine, but that would have been for publicly asking for a trade. This lesser fine seemingly falls under the “conduct or statements prejudicial or detrimental to the best interests of basketball, the NBA, or a team” category, as opposed to the public trade demand one.

The NBPA intends to file a grievance on Harden’s behalf. Their argument is that Harden is being unfairly punished for calling Daryl Morey a “liar”, as opposed to saying he’ll withhold services. This was to be expected, as the NBPA has to protect their player and to make sure that the rest of their constituency isn’t punished for simply making comments the NBA finds objectionable.

As for Harden, he said his calling Morey a liar was related to Morey saying that he’d trade him “quickly” after Harden opted in. He has not referenced any kind of wink-wink agreement in reference to his free agency in 2022.

James Harden’s Situation

James Harden wants a trade and doesn’t want to play for the Philadelphia 76ers any longer. Or, at the very least, he doesn’t want to play for the Sixers while Daryl Morey is still running the front office.

To his credit, Harden has never openly called out where he wants to be traded to. Reporting is that Harden prefers a trade to the LA Clippers. That’s likely accurate, but Harden hasn’t agitated anything towards “Clippers or else!”, at least not publicly.

Beyond that, Harden kind of made his own bed, to at least some degree. He could have let his prior contract play out. He could have opted out of his current contract. Either way, he would have had full control over what was next. As it stands now, Harden can want to be elsewhere, but he’s beholden to the whims of Morey and 29 other teams and what they can negotiate in trade.

As far as Harden saying he won’t report to the Sixers goes, he’s playing a dangerous game. Under the CBA, any player who withholds services for 30 total days while in the final season of his contract, will be deemed to have not completed that contract.

In Harden’s case, if he stays away from the Sixers for at least 30 days, his contract will expire as scheduled on July 1, 2024. But Harden will not be able to sign with any professional basketball team without the permission of the 76ers. (Note: That’s any professional team. FIBA is generally fairly good about upholding contract rules of the various leagues they are partnered with. That makes it unlikely Harden would be approved to sign outside of the NBA.)

That makes the most likely situation, assuming Harden is still with Philadelphia at the start of training camp, also the most uncomfortable one. He’ll have to show up and do the bare minimum. We’ve seen what that looks like, and it benefits no one.

Finally, for those who say “Harden is in a contract year. He has to show up and play well, or no one will want him!” That’s complete nonsense. Teams know who Harden is at this point in his career. They also understand the situation. They’ve seen Harden play uninspiring basketball with both the Rockets and Nets in pre-trade situations. If he does it again, it’s not going to deter a team that wants him from making a trade.

The Philadelphia 76ers' Situation

Daryl Morey laid out some guidelines for making a James Harden trade. Morey said he needs to get a player or players that will keep his team a contender. Or the team needs to get enough draft picks that they can be turned into a player or players that will keep the Sixers a contender.

In addition to the above, Morey is prioritizing the Sixers keeping the cap flexibility that they are looking at for the 2024 offseason. Philadelphia is one of seven teams that project to have cap space in the summer of 2024.

To sum it up: Morey wants good players, or draft picks that he can flip for good players, and he doesn’t want to take on any salary into 2024-25.

Good luck.

Either of those ambitions are fine. The 76ers are a contender and should be trying to stay at that level. It’s also fine to want to have cap space next summer. Money to spend with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in place? Every team in the league would sign up for that.

But, it’s not really that simple.

It’s hard to find players at Harden’s level that are also on expiring contracts, especially at this point in the offseason. Moving Harden in a package built around draft picks is also a difficult thing to swing. Again, it’s late-August. Most teams are fleshing out their rosters with training camp invites, not trying to pull off blockbuster trades.

Also, let’s spend a little time talking about preserving cap space for 2024. It’s been massively overstated how much cap space the 76ers can get to.

As it stands today, the NBA projects the salary cap to land at $142 million for the 2024-25 season. That’s a very modest 4.4% increase from this season. Even if the league is being very conservative, let’s run with that $142 million projection for now.

This is what Philadelphia has on the books for the 2024-25 season:

  • Joel Embiid - $51,415,938
  • Filip Petrusev - $1,891,857 (non-guaranteed)
  • Paul Reed - $7,723,000 (non-guaranteed unless team makes second round of 2024 playoffs)
  • Jaden Springer - $4,018,363 (4th year rookie scale team option)
  • P.J. Tucker - $11,539,000 (player option)
  • 2024 First Round Pick (projected at #25): $2,739,360

The 76ers can also have a host of cap holds for free agents, but in order to have cap space, they’ll need to renounce most of those players. These are the two free agent cap holds that Philadelphia is most likely to carry into the 2024 offseason:

  • Tyrese Maxey - $13,031,760 (restricted free agent coming off rookie scale deal)
  • De’Anthony Melton - $15,200,000 (unrestricted free agent coming off less than average salary)

Our projection for the 76ers cap space for 2024 is $32,961,798. We don’t project trades, so here’s what is included in that projection:

  • Embiid
  • Reed
  • Tucker
  • 2024 First Round Pick
  • Maxey cap hold
  • Melton cap hold

For reference, $32.9 million in cap space is less than the 0-6 Years of Service maximum salary, which projects to be $35.5 million (25% of the cap).

Now, let’s play a bit…

Let’s say Morey can get off everything but Embiid’s salary and Maxey’s cap hold. And, to be honest, that isn’t all that far-fetched of a scenario. That would give the 76ers $65,237,062 in cap space against a cap of $142 million.

For reference, a 7-9 Years of Service maximum salary for 2024-25 projects to be $42.6 million (30% of the cap). A 10-plus Years of Service maximum salary projects to be $49.7 million (35% of the cap).

So, we’re definitely in range of a maximum signing at 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap. And there would even be enough left over to sign another player or two, plus the $8 million room exception. But that’s still well shy of the double max salary space that has been touted in the basketball-sphere in recent weeks.

Let’s play a bit more…

Let’s say the Sixers wipe everything off the books except for Embiid and Maxey AND the cap goes up the maximum of 10%. That’s kind of the dream scenario for Morey and Philadelphia. In that situation, the cap would be $149.6 million for 2024-25.

If that happens, then the Sixers would be looking at about $70-72 million or so in cap space. Better than $65 million, and certainly better than $33 million. But that also involves a lot of “if this and this and this and this” happening to get there.

In an attempt to simplify this a bit: The Philadelphia 76ers have good cap flexibility, but they aren’t landing two max free agents in the summer of 2024. That would take some salary cap gymnastics that are simply too unrealistic to really consider. A single max free agent to add to Embiid and Maxey, as well as some leftover spending power, that’s a far more realistic scenario. And it’s not really a bad one!

Summary

This is a mess. It has been for a while, and will continue to be one, especially as the ugliness seems to be amping up. James Harden seems unlikely to back down, and has reportedly threatened to make things “uncomfortable” if he’s not traded.

Daryl Morey is going to find it hard to achieve all of his stated goals in making a Harden deal. It’s just not realistic to expect to find contention-level players, who are also on expiring contracts.

The NBA itself is in an increasingly tricky spot. If Harden continues to push that he was promised things that haven’t come to fruition, the league is going to have to investigate just how far things went in the summer of 2022. If there is proof that there were wink-wink and under-the-table agreements, the league will hammer Philadelphia with massive penalties.

When the Minnesota Timberwolves and Joe Smith had shady dealings, the NBA came down hard. The Wolves lost five first-round picks (two of them were later returned), were hit with a $3.5 million fine and then owner Glen Taylor was suspended for a year. It’s fair to expect Adam Silver and the league office would hit the 76ers with similar consequences.

To be fair, there’s no indication that’s going to happen. So far, Harden has held firm that his “liar” comments were about Morey not trading him quickly after opting in. But the longer this situation drags on, the uglier it could get.

As with all trade negotiations, the parties involved often set unrealistic terms early on. No one wants to give up everything in the first conservation. As time goes along, one side comes up down from their ask, while the other comes up with their offer, and the deal gets done.

In this situation, we have a pretty clear deadline about a month or so from now, with training camp on the horizon. Harden doesn’t want to be in Philadelphia, and says he won’t be. The 76ers aren’t going to want an awkward media day and opening to the new season. NFL executive-turned-analyst Andrew Brandt is fond of saying “Deadlines spur action” and that applies here.

Morey will come down in his asking price, perhaps because the idea of maximizing cap space is a somewhat futile one. He’ll come away with a collection of good players, along with retaining a good amount of cap flexibility. Harden will land elsewhere (probably with the Clippers, because players generally get their way), and we’ll move on.

If that’s not the way this plays out, it’s going to become an ugly staring contest for no good reason. And that’s going to have spillover to the rest of the roster. The rumor mill is already churning regarding Joel Embiid. If this gets to a point where Embiid is agitated enough to want a change of scenery, it’ll be a failure of epic proportions.

We aren’t there yet, and probably won’t get there. But avoiding that has to be part of the equation. That’s why it behooves Philadelphia to get a deal done and to move onto whatever is next.

nba james harden james harden

2023 NBA Offseason Recap: Southeast Division

Keith SmithAugust 21, 2023

The NBA offseason is fully into the dog days of August. We’re still waiting to see when (if?) Damian Lillard or James Harden gets traded. One situation has been curiously quiet, while the other has been contentiously loud. But both Lillard and Harden remain in Portland and Philadelphia, respectively.

But everyone else is filling out training camp rosters at this point. That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Pacific Division and Southwest Division already. Next up: The Southeast Division!

Atlanta Hawks

Players Returning (11)

Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, Bruno Fernando, A.J. Griffin Jr., De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Garrison Mathews, Dejounte Murray, Onyeka Okongwu, Trae Young

Players Added (6)

Kobe Bufkin, Mouhamed Gueye, Seth Lundy (two-way), Wesley Matthews, Patty Mills, Miles Norris (two-way)

Players Lost (5)

John Collins, Trent Forrest (two-way), Aaron Holiday, Tyrese Martin, Donovan Williams (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Atlanta is $9.7 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

The Hawks have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception. Atlanta also has the NBA’s largest TPE at $23 million from the John Collins trade.

Biggest Move of the Summer

We’re going to give this one a tie. One move involved a player moving on and one move involved retaining a player.

Atlanta finally traded John Collins, following years of speculation that they would do so. In the end, Collins was salary-dumped to Utah Jazz. Atlanta created necessary room under the tax line, and also freed up some frontcourt playing time. No one who can replace Collins is nearly as accomplished as he is, but they are all significantly cheaper. And for an expensive team that’s achieved average results, something had to give for the Hawks.

On the retention side, Atlanta agreed to a four-year, $114 million extension with Dejounte Murray. That’s far less than the max Murray was eligible for, but a good example of the new extension rules in the CBA getting a deal done. For better or worse, Atlanta is now committed to a backcourt of Murray and Trae Young, and Quin Snyder has to find a way to make it work.

Work To Do

The Hawks roster is basically finished. They have a two-way spot to fill. Atlanta waived Vit Krejci recently, which got them down to 15 players on standard spots.

With the roster complete, Quin Snyder can spend camp implementing his systems, while figuring out his rotation. Collins and his 30 minutes per game need to be replaced. The guess here is that some combination of Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson and maybe some small-ball lineups will be the way the Hawks do it. Keep an eye on Johnson. He started to come on late in his second season and seems ready to make a leap this year.

Charlotte Hornets

Players Returning (11)

LaMelo Ball, James Bouknight, Gordon Hayward, Kai Jones, Cody Martin, Bryce McGowens, Nick Richards, Terry Rozier III, Kobi Simmons, J.T. Thor, Mark Williams

Players Added (6)

Amari Bailey (two-way), Leaky Black (two-way), Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, Frank Ntilikina, Nick Smith Jr.

Players Lost (6)

Theo Maledon (two-way), Svi Mykhailiuk, Kelly Oubre Jr., Xavier Sneed (two-way), P.J. Washington

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Charlotte is about $46.7 million under the luxury tax

Spending Power Remaining

The Hornets have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing LaMelo Ball to a five-year, maximum contract rookie scale extension. Ball is Charlotte’s most important player and they got him to sign a five-year extension to stick around long-term. That’s huge for building out this roster and what the Hornets hope to be.

Behind extending Ball is drafting Brandon Miller. Charlotte chose Miller instead of Scoot Henderson, who most thought was the second-best player in the draft. But Miller is a better positional fit for the Hornets, and he’s got a ton of talent himself. If Miller can develop into a running mate for Ball, Charlotte will have two important positions covered for years.

Miles Bridges will be back this season, after he signed his qualifying offer. When he last played in 2021-22, Bridges looked like he was on the verge of being an All-Star. An ugly domestic violence incident kept Bridges out all of last season, and he’ll serve a 10-game suspension to open next season. (Bridges was given a 30-game total suspension, but deemed to have served 20 games when he did not play last season.) Bridges has an opportunity to show he’s an improving and better person, to go along with his basketball talent. But he has a lot of work to do to prove himself again.

Off the court, Michael Jordan sold the Hornets to a group led by Gabe Plotkin and Rick Schnall. This ends Jordan’s up-and-mostly-down reign running the Charlotte franchise. It’ll take some time before we can judge what sort of owners Plotkin and Schnall will be.

Work To Do

Charlotte only has a two-way spot left to fill, but they aren’t done with their roster yet. P.J. Washington remains a restricted free agent. Washington reportedly wants a contract that averages $20 million per season. That’s pretty far away from where the Hornets have been.

That means we’re in range of Washington signing the qualifying offer, a la Miles Bridges, and playing out the year before unrestricted free agency in 2024. The other option is to find a sign-and-trade for Washington. That’s occasionally happened late in the offseason, with Lauri Markkanen joining the Cleveland Cavaliers from the Chicago Bulls as a recent example.

If Washington is back, that makes a somewhat crowded frontcourt even more so, especially after Bridges returns. Washington, Bridges, Gordon Hayward and rookie Brandon Miller will all need plenty of minutes and one or two of them will have to go to the bench. That’s a potentially combustible situation, with Bridges, Hayward and Washington playing for their next deals and Miller needing run as a rookie.

Miami Heat

Players Returning (11)

Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Jamal Cain (two-way), Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Orlando Robinson

Players Added (5)

Jamaree Bouyea (two-way), Thomas Bryant, Jaime, Jaquez Jr., Josh Richardson, Dru Smith (two-way)

Players Lost (6)

Udonis Haslem, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Omer Yurtseven, Cody Zeller

Roster Openings

2 standard spots.

Cap/Tax Status

Miami is $1.8 million below the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining

The Heat have the full $5 million Taxpayer MLE remaining. However, Miami doesn’t have enough clearance under the second apron to use more than $1.8 million of it. And using the Taxpayer MLE would hard cap the Heat at the second apron. That makes the Taxpayer MLE unlikely to be used for the time being.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing Josh Richardson…we guess? We all know the story here. Miami is trying to figure out a way to collect the necessary assets to trade for Damian Lillard. That pursuit has more or less put the rest of the Heat’s offseason on pause. Until Miami trades for Lillard, or moves on from trading for him, their offseason has an air of incompleteness around it.

That said, signing Richardson at the veteran minimum was a great pickup. He’ll play a big role for Miami and returns to the team where he had the best years of his career. His ability to play on- or off-ball, and as a starter or a reserve, is also helpful for a roster that is still being molded.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. just feels like a Heat player. He could add some nice depth as a rangy forward who can do a little bit of everything.

Thomas Bryant is a nice rehab project for Miami. He was pretty good for the Washington Wizards a few years back before tearing his ACL. The Heat have a history of getting players right, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bryant have a bounce-back season.

Work To Do

The Heat need to trade for Lillard or not. There really isn’t a whole lot else to do. If they don’t trade for Lillard, they’ll wage a five-way battle for roster spots in training camp. And it’s a pretty good bet that one of those players will eventually play key rotation minutes for Miami.

But really, this is all about a Lillard trade. Nothing else here can approach the impact of getting that deal done.

Orlando Magic

Players Returning (14)

Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Goga Bitadze, Wendell Carter Jr., Makelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Kevon Harris (two-way), Caleb Houstan, Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke, Admiral Schofield (two-way), Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner

Players Added (3)

Anthony Black, Jett Howard, Joe Ingles

Players Lost (3)

Bol Bol, Michael Carter-Williams, Jay Scrubb (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Magic are $34.3 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

Orlando has the full $7.7 million room exception remaining.

Biggest Move of the Summer

For this season: signing Joe Ingles. For the long-term: drafting Anthony Black and Jett Howard.

Orlando is trying to push up the standing. After last season’s disastrous 5-20 start, Orlando went 29-28. The Magic believe they are closer to that .500 team of the final two-thirds of the season, than the injury-plagued group that opened the year.

We’re inclined to believe them. That’s why signing Ingles makes sense. He’ll be the grownup in a young locker room, while providing some shooting and a lot of ball movement on the floor. Ingles is more 3/4 now, than the 2/3 he used to be, but that’s fine. He’ll play about 20 minutes a night and help this fledgling group mature.

Black and Howard were this year’s first-round picks. Black is ready to defend in the NBA right now, but the rest of his game needs work. He has to improve his shot and his playmaking, but he oozes potential. Howard is closer to ready to contribute as an NBA shooter, but the rest of his game is where he needs to improve. Because Orlando’s roster is pretty loaded with young talent, neither Black nor Howard might make much of an impact this season.

Work To Do

Jamahl Mosley can have some fun in training camp this year, assuming his guys stay healthy. The Magic are deep in guys who can play. Just as importantly: Orlando is deep in guys who need to play. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner will come into camp off a summer of national team experience, along with a few others. But it’s those two burgeoning stars who are ready to take another big step forward.

This season is about figuring out who fits around Banchero and Wagner, while also winning more games. The Magic have a lot of the rotation to figure out, especially in the backcourt, but that’s better than the “no healthy perimeter players” situation that Mosley started last season with. This time, things are starting from a far better place.

Washington Wizards

Players Returning (8)

Deni Avdija, Xavier Cooks, Johnny Davis, Daniel Gafford, Anthony Gill, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, Delon Wright

Players Added (10)

Jared Butler (two-way), Patrick Baldwin Jr., Bilal Coulibaly, Danilo Gallinari, Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, Eugene Omoruyi (two-way), Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, Landry Shamet

Players Lost (9)

Bradley Beal, Taj Gibson, Jordan Goodwin, Jay Huff (two-way), Quenton Jackson (two-way), Monte Morris, Kendrick Nunn, Kristaps Porzingis, Isaiah Todd

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Wizards are $26.9 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

Washington has the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Leaning fully into a rebuild. Washington traded away Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, and shed a lot of the long-term salary they had on their cap sheet. They also picked up several draft picks in the Beal trade, in addition to the new cap flexibility. These moves truly mark a new direction for the Wizards.

Washington committed some of that newfound cap flexibility to Jordan Poole, who they acquired by flipping Chris Paul after the Beal trade, and by re-signing Kyle Kuzma. The two veterans will give the Wizards scoring and shooting, as the roster develops over the next few years.

Tyus Jones was a very solid pickup in the Porzingis trade. He’s long been thought of as someone who could handle a starting role. It looks like we’ll find out, as Jones is the best Washington has at the point guard position.

Everyone else the Wizards acquired this summer is a mix of flyers on young players and veterans that were included for salary reasons. Washington will have opportunities for players to emerge or for vets to get their careers back on track.

Work To Do

The Wizards have to cut or trade a player with a guaranteed standard salary to get into roster compliance. They also have a two-way spot to fill.

Beyond that, Washington could extend Deni Avdija, as he’s eligible for a rookie scale extension. Given the in-progress nature of the Wizards roster, that one might play out to restricted free agency next summer. For now, only Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole and rookie Bilal Coulibaly seem to have guaranteed long-term futures with the Wizards. Everyone else is playing for a spot for this season and beyond, both in Washington and, for some, in the NBA as a whole.

 

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