Well it wasn’t a rip it up and start over like some thought it might be, but the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes agreed to a large contract modification this past weekend, pulling a significant amount of future cash into the next 4 seasons. Our extremely number-filled look at how this new contract shakes out.

Year by Year Contract Breakdowns

2023
One prorated week of his original $5.5M base salary pay + 17 weeks of an updated $1.08M base salary now calculates to a $1.325M total base salary for 2023. There’s a $20.574M signing bonus (half paid this year, half paid next year), and previously vested payments of $22.4M (March roster bonus), $550,000 (workout bonus), & $12M (salary to signing bonus conversion from his original base salary). In total it’s $56.85M of base compensation to be earned this year, against a $37.1M cap hit.

2024
The $8.6M base salary is fully guaranteed at signing, $34.9M roster bonus fully guaranteed 9/20/2023, $1M workout bonus fully guarantees 09/20/2023. The latter bonuses guarantee 3 days of the contract execution to stop them being treated as a signing bonus. But for practical purposes, they’re considered guaranteed at signing. In total, it’s $44.5M of base compensation to be earned this year, against a $57.3M cap hit.

2025
The $16.65M base salary injury guaranteed at signing, fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2025, while a $32.35M roster bonus fully guarantees 9/20/2023 (to be paid out 5/5/2025). His $1M workout bonus fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2025 (injury guaranteed at signing). In total it’s $50M of base compensation to be earned this year, against a $60.85M cap hit.

2026
The $45.35M base salary injury guaranteed at signing, fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2026, while a $10.4M injury guaranteed roster bonus (paid May 5, 2026), fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2025. A $1M workout bonus, injury guaranteed at signing, fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2026

2027
A $45.8M base salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2027, while a $6.1M roster bonus (paid out May 5th, 2027) fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2026. His $1M workout bonus fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2027

2028
A $17.975M base salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2028, while a $8.2M roster bonus (paid out May 5, 2028), fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2027. His $1M workout bonus fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2028

2029
A $8M base salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2029 while a $25.975M roster bonus (paid out May 5, 2029), fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2028. His $1M workout bonus fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2029

2030
A $30.625M base salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2030, while a $13.9M roster bonus (paid out May 5th, 2030), fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2029. His $1M workout bonus fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2030.

2031
A $37.55M base salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2031, while a $9.825M roster bonus (paid out May 5th, 2031), fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2030. His $1M workout bonus fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2031

New Bonus Dates

One of the bigger changes in this contract modification is the timing of the annual roster bonus payment. For the last 3 offseasons, Mahomes’ gigantic roster bonuses have been due a few days after the start of the league year in early March, putting pressure on the Chiefs to decide on if they are willing to take on the bonus as a 1 time cap hit, or convert the figure to a signing bonus, thus spread out the cap for 5 seasons.

Now, all roster bonuses are paid out May 5th of that respective year, giving the Chiefs time to get through the bulk of free agency AND the draft before they have to make a decision on how to treat these figures.

This does not affect the guarantee vesting for these bonuses however. The 2024-2025 roster bonuses will become fully guaranteed this week. While each roster bonus thereafter (2026-2031) will become fully guaranteed an entire March early (14 months before payment).

Updated Bonus Escalators

Originally, Mahomes’ contract carried $2.5M of annual bonuses. He earned all $2.5M last year by winning league MVP & another Super Bowl, so prior to this restructure they were considered likely to be earned for 2023. By converting these to next-year-escalators, that $2.5M can be removed from the 2023 salary cap (by way of a later adjustment).

When these are earned, they are immediately applied to the following year’s base salary.

$1.25M for NFL MVP + Conference Championship Appearance
$1.25M for a Super Bowl Win + 50% of Super Bowl snaps or 50% of regular season snaps

The Cash Increase

Without going into too much detail here (again staying within this 4-year window for practical purposes), Mahomes added $43.3M cash to his pocket from 2023-2026, including an additional $13.9M this season. That doesn’t of course include any escalators that may be factored in.

Cash Added
2023: +$13.9M
2024: +$20.45M
2025: +$31M
2026: +$43.3M

Total Cash Allocations
2023: $56.8M
2024: $44.5M
2025: $50M
2026: $56.75M
2027: $52.9M
2028: $27.1M
2029: $34.9M
2030: $45.5M
2031: $48.3M

Cap Adjustments

This monster restructure actually frees up $2.559M of cap space for the Chiefs in 2023, however - unlike most NFL contract modifications, the purpose of this maneuver is not about opening up cap space for the team. This was about front-loading their QB1 more money. End of sentence.

Patrick Mahomes’ New Cap Numbers

2023: $37.1M
2024: $57.3M
2025: $60.8M
2026: $63.2M
2027: $59.4M
2028: $27.1M
2029: $34.9M
2030: $45.5M
2031: $48.3M

Concluding Thoughts

The first thing that comes to mind is, was it really necessary to sign a 10 year, $450M extension in the first place? Not every player is going to garner the cache that Mahomes has - and not every organization is going to be willing to play ball as much as the Chiefs did here (even if it really is just an extra $44Mish over the next 4 seasons when it comes right down to it).

The majority of QB extensions of late still look 1-2 years too long. Only Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson have really put significant pressure on their organizations from a cash, cap, AND term perspective, while most others have spread things out into the 7-8 year total contract range.

This restructure certainly screams “4 and done”, with a clear and concise out after the 2026 season in terms of cash, cap, and structure. But it isn’t required that the Chiefs do so. The ugly truth is that Kansas City will still hold 5 more years of contract term after 2026. Will Mahomes still be powerful enough to get what he wants at age 31 after the 2026 season? Almost certainly yes.

But if that’s to be believed (and for all intents it should), then why keep the last 5 years on the books at all? Patrick Mahomes is arguably the most powerful player in the history of the NFL, as proven by his original extension, and his ability to ask and receive a monumental restructure just a few years after signing it. Why not take the new cash AND make 2027 a potential free agency offseason. Not only does it serve the player well, but it also puts the onus on the Chiefs to continue to build a contender, with risk that their QB1 might opt-out and leave town in a few seasons.

With that said, this contract modification was a win for both sides, especially as it pertains to the Chiefs - who didn’t need to do this - but also made this a smooth and drama-free process from A-Z. Easier said than done in the current landscape.

Joe Burrow (hilariously) interrupted the NFL Kickoff Opener Thursday night with news of his brand new 5 year, $275,000,000 extension with the Bengals. Burrow scores a $40M pay raise this year, with a whopping $146.5M fully guaranteed at signing ($111M of new guarantee).

COMPLETE CONTRACT BREAKDOWN

The Total Value

With two years remaining on his rookie contract (4th year + an exercised 5th year option), Burrow’s contract now combines for a 7 year, $310M deal through the 2029 seasons (age 33).

Comparing to recent extensions:
Patrick Mahomes, 12 years, $480M
Justin Herbert, 7 years, $296M
Josh Allen, 8 years, $284M
Kyler Murray, 7 years, $265M
Lamar Jackson, 5 years, $260M
Jalen Hurts, 6 years, $259M

The Average Annual Value

Burrow didn’t just surpass Justin Herbert’s $52.5M per year - he blew by it. His $55M per year represents 24.4% of the current NFL Salary Cap ($224.8M), the highest percentage of cap in NFL history.

Three years ago, Patrick Mahomes’ $45M per year was the top number. Mahomes now ranks 8th on that list, with 4 players north of $50M per year (and that includes Aaron Rodgers taking himself OUT of that group).

The Guarantee Structure

It’s another wow here. Lamar Jackson’s $135M was the previous high guarantee at signing figure (Deshaun Watson excluded). But Burrow’s $146.51M soars to the top with this new deal, including 3 years of fully guaranteed compensation through 2025.

That said, it wouldn’t be fair to ignore that Burrow already had $35M fully guaranteed allocated on his rookie contract, so accounting for that lowers this new guarantee at signing figure to $111.4M - still $11.4M more than Justin Herbert secured ($100M), and plenty more than Jackson’s adjusted number when accounting for the offered franchise tag ($102.6M).

On the 5th league day of 2025, another $35.25M becomes fully guaranteed (his 2026 compensation). All of that is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing.

On the 5th league day of 2026, another $18.3M becomes fully guaranteed (a portion of his 2027 compensation). The remaining $18.95M fully guarantees in March of 2027.

That brings us to a practical guarantee total of $219.01M, through the 2027 season, 2nd only to Deshaun Watson’s $230M.

The Cash Flow

Burrow scores a $40M pay raise this year, north of $45.5M for the 2023 season, but he’ll secure a whopping $65.7M in 2024, bringing his 2-year total over $111M. Only Lamar Jackson’s $112.5M pays out more in that regard. A $35.25M payday for 2025 brings the 3-year total over $146.5M, again second only to Jackson’s outstanding $156M payout.

Why so much more for Lamar? A) He was technically a free agent versus an under contract extension. B) Joe Burrow’s extension comes with an inexpensive 4th rookie contract year ($5M) and a 5th year option value ($29M) under it. Cincinnati could have slow-played this cash flow like a baseball extension - but they didn’t. Burrow secures the best cash flow in rookie contract extension history.

Annual Cash Allocations
2023: $45.5M
2024: $65.7M
2025: $35.25M
2026: $35.25M
2027: $37.25M
2028: $40.5M
2029: $50.5M

The Cap Flow

The Bengals utilized a SIX BONUS structure with this extension: A $40M signing bonus, a $55M 2nd year option bonus, 3 consecutive $10M option bonus, and a final $5M option bonus in the 2028 season.

For the most part, this keeps the upfront cap hits relatively tenable, with a slight need for salary conversion coming in 2025/2026, and an excessive figure in the final season.

Annual Cap Allocations
2023: $19.5M
2024: $29.7M
2025: $46.25M
2026: $48.25M
2027: $52.25M
2028: $53.5M
2029: $68.5M
2030: $9M (dead)

Concluding Thoughts

Many, ourselves included, wondered if Joe Burrow would take the Peyton Manning approach (max out) or the Tom Brady approach with this rookie extension. Quite obviously he chose the former here.

The Bengals haven’t put together a contract like this in the history of their franchise, historically not fully guaranteeing any future salary - often not even for injury purposes. They haven’t been “cheap” in terms of overall payouts, but they’ve been frugal when it comes to the stability of their contracts.

There’s not a soul who can claim that about this Joe Burrow extension. It’s rock solid through 2027, with a bit of an out prior to the 2028 season, and a definitive one before 2029. Cincinnati will be sticking more than $100M into escrow with this deal (fully guaranteed cash not paid out in 2023), proving they’re on board for whatever it takes to keep this elite QB1 in town for as long as possible.

This is just step one in their core payment process however, as Ja’Marr Chase becomes extension eligible in just a few short months, and should have a bright shiny Justin Jefferson contract to mirror by then.

Nick Bosa’s holdout from the San Francisco 49ers this offseason proved worthy, as the 25-year-old eventually locked down the highest non-Quarterback contract in NFL history by all accords.

The Total Value

Bosa secures 5 new years, $170M new money per the extension, equating to a total of $188.9M for the next 6 seasons. The $170M deal is the 10th largest new money value in NFL history (9 QBs ahead of him, 7 QBs behind him).

The Average Annual Value

The extension carries a new money average of $34M per year, the 19th highest AAV in NFL history, and the most for a non-QB by $2.4M (Aaron Donald, $31.6M).

The 6-year total value contract carries a full AAV of $31.4M, while the guaranteed portion of this deal (through 2026), comes in at $30.625M per year - all outstanding, top of the market, numbers.

The Guarantee Structure

Bosa’s deal comes with $88M fully guaranteed at signing, by way of a $50M signing bonus, guaranteed minimum salaries in each of the next 3 seasons, a $15.23M option bonus in 2024, & $18.965M of a 2025 option bonus. The $88M figure represents the highest upfront guarantee for a non-QB in NFL history, surpassing T.J. Watt’s $80M from his 2021 extension in Pittsburgh.

If Bosa is on the roster April 1st, 2024, another $10.5M becomes fully guaranteed (the remaining portion of the 2025 option bonus + the 2025 per game active bonuses).

If Bosa is on the roster April 1st, 2025, another $23,444,421 becomes fully guaranteed (his 2026 salary + $764,421 of 2027 salary).

This gets us to $122,500,000 of upfront or early vesting guarantee - 13th most in NFL history, and #1 all-time among non-Quarterbacks.

The Cash Flow

Thanks to a $50M signing bonus, $51.01M of this $188M contract is paid out in Year 1, 5th most among active contracts, and $8M more than his brother Joey’s first year payout, the previous leader among non-QBs.

Through two seasons, Nick Bosa will secure $67.8M, with $98.5M available through 2025. Only Aaron Donald’s $95M comes close to Bosa here, and every dollar of it will be fully guaranteed by next April.

Annual Cash Allocations
2023: $51.01M
2024: $16.8M
2025: $30.6M
2026: $23.1M
2027: $33.1M
2028: $34M

The Cap Flow

The triple bonus structure (signing bonus + 2nd year option bonus + 3rd year option bonus) is the simplest way to keep salary cap figures low in the early portion of a contract. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the combined cap for Nick Bosa over the next three seasons (2023-2025) is $46.1M, an average of $15.3M per year.

From there things begin to escalate, with cap figures of $42M, $52M & $42M to close the deal out. A void year in 2029 currently carries $5.8M of dead cap to account for the 3rd option bonus proration.

San Francisco will leave this contract untouched until 2026, when a slight conversion of the $22.68M base salary to reduce cap could come into play.

Annual Cap Allocations
2023: $11M
2024: $14.6M
2025: $20.5M
2026: $42M
2027: $52M
2028: $42M
2029: $5.8M (dead)

Concluding Thoughts

It’s bigger, bolder, & and more secure than many expected - but that’s what age (25), recency bias (34 sacks across 2021-2022), winning (23 regular season wins 2021-2022), a cheap QB (Purdy accounts for $2.9M over the next 3 seasons), & leverage can do when they all come together at once.

My only initial push back: Why not front load this more? The Niners have been known for pulling a lot of cash into the early seasons, offering loads of value in Years 3-4-5 for their blockbuster contract. The structure of this deal is about as traditional as it comes for a major extension, and the 49ers currently hold the most cap space in the NFL (north of $30M at the time of this piece). Could they have converted some of the signing bonus into a 2023 roster bonus instead?

With that said, this is the new standard for how a non-quarterback superstar contract should operate, and the next man up for this treatment: Justin Jefferson. The Vikings tried to lock down their WR1 all summer, but failed to do so at the final hour. It’s safe to say the details of Nick Bosa’s contract probably had something to do with that…

The 2023 regular season is here, so naturally, it's the perfect time to start thinking about next offseason. Our quick look at notable, pending free agents from each position grouping. VIEW ALL 2024 FREE AGENTS

Quarterbacks

3 (technically 4 if we’re throwing Joshua Dobbs into the mix) 2023 starting QBs are slated to hit the open market next March. Vikings fans thinking they can slow-play another deal for Cousins with a franchise tag next March may want to think otherwise, as it’ll cost $52.2M to do so (3rd career tag). Tennessee could hand the keys to Malik Willis or Will Levis next season, but a short-term reunion with Tannehill isn’t out of the question.

Kirk Cousins (MIN, 35)
Baker Mayfield (TB, 28)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN, 35)

VIEW ALL

Running Backs

Another loaded list of players (click view all to see the 2 dozen or so legitimate options) are set to hit the open market. Will someone take a chance on near-30 Derrick Henry? Are Pollard/Jacobs/Barkley destined for another tag? Will Jonathan Taylor snag a top-of-the-market offer?

JK Dobbins (BAL, 25)
Tony Pollard (DAL, 26)
Jonathan Taylor (IND, 25)
Austin Ekeler (LAC, 28)
Cam Akers (LAR, 24)
Josh Jacobs (LV, 25)
Saquon Barkley (NYG, 26)
Dalvin Cook (NYJ, 28)
D'Andre Swift (PHI, 24)
Derrick Henry (TEN, 29)

VIEW ALL

Wide Receivers

The 2022 burst of WR contracts leaves this list a little thin heading toward March, but Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, & Calvin Ridley should all be in the mix for $20M+ per year deals, while a few other names here can play themselves into that conversation through 2023.

Michael Pittman Jr. (IND, 26)
Marquise Brown (ARI, 26)
Gabriel Davis (BUF, 24)
Darnell Mooney (CHI, 26)
Tee Higgins (CIN, 24)
Calvin Ridley (JAX, 29)
Mike Evans (TB, 30)

VIEW ALL

Tight Ends

With the exception of T.J. Hockenson’s deal in Minnesota, the Tight End market has plateaued for lack of a better term. Many, if not all, of the names shown here will be relegated to 1-year offers next March.

Dalton Schultz (HOU, 27)
Mike Gesicki (NE, 28)
Hunter Henry (NE, 29)
Noah Fant (SEA, 26)
Tyler Higbee (LAR, 30)

VIEW ALL

Tackles

3 above average starting left tackles could become available next March, which should mean major pay days. The top right tackles in the league are now securing north of $60M guaranteed.

Jonah Williams (CIN, 26)
Tyron Smith (DAL, 33)
Josh Jones (HOU, 26)
Donovan Smith (KC, 30)
Trenton Brown (NE, 30)

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Guards

Guard might be the deepest available position next March, as there were a dozen legitimate options to make note of here. Will any of these names splash a blockbuster deal? Probably not. But there will be plenty of offers for stable, starting-caliber interior linemen on an annual basis.

Kevin Zeitler (BAL, 33)
Robert Hunt (MIA, 27)
Ezra Cleveland (MIN, 25)
Mike Onwenu (NE, 26)
Damien Lewis (SEA, 26)

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Centers

Kelce probably steps away after 2023, but a return to Philly seems the only other option. Connor Williams and the Dolphins have tried to figure out an extension this summer, but it doesn’t appear that will happen before the start of the regular season. There’s a world where someone makes him the highest paid center in the league next March.

Connor Williams (MIA, 26)
Connor McGovern (NYJ, 30)
Jason Kelce (PHI, 36)

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Defensive Linemen

Wilkins and the Dolphins had preliminary discussions, but the offers remained too far apart to nail anything down. A half dozen top of the line extensions this offseason has taken the DT market into the mid-20s, and easily approaching the $30M mark for the upcoming year.

Michael Pierce (BAL, 31)
Andrew Billings (CHI, 28)
D.J. Reader (CIN, 29)
Christian Wilkins (MIA, 28)
Teair Tart (TEN, 26)

VIEW ALL

Edge Defenders

Just when we thought teams were starting to suppress the EDGE market, San Francisco locks in Nick Bosa to the biggest, baddest non-QB contract in the history of football. That certainly won’t be the case for everyone here, but players like Burns & Gary will certainly see a bump in light of this recent deal.

Brian Burns (CAR, 25)
Za'Darius Smith (CLE, 31)
Rashan Gary (GB, 26)
Josh Allen (JAX, 26)
Danielle Hunter (MIN, 29)
Josh Uche (NE, 25)
Leonard Williams (NYG, 29)
Chase Young (WAS, 24)
Montez Sweat (WAS, 27)

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Off-Ball Linebackers

A fully healthy Jordyn Brooks probably sees a big-time extension offer from Seattle before March 13th, but Devin White & Patrick Queen are likely to hit the open market. They’ll be seeking a Tremaine Edmunds type deal ($50M guaranteed) from this past offseason.

Patrick Queen (BAL, 24)
Anthony Walker Jr. (CLE, 28)
Jordyn Brooks (SEA, 26)
Bobby Wagner (SEA, 33)
Lavonte David (TB, 33)
Devin White (TB, 25)

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Cornerbacks

Not the most star-studded list we’ve seen in recent free agent history, but Jackson & Sneed could secure nice numbers if allowed to walk.

Stephon Gilmore (DAL, 33)
L'Jarius Sneed (KC, 26)
Adoree' Jackson (NYG, 28)
Sean Bunting (TEN, 26)
Kendall Fuller (WAS, 28)

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Safeties

There’s some real talent here, and if the Buccaneers/Patriots decide to go backwards instead of forwards with their respective rosters, it could mean big free agent pay days coming elsewhere.

Micah Hyde (BUF, 32)
Kyle Dugger (NE, 27)
Ryan Neal (TB, 28)
Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB, 25)
Kamren Curl (WAS, 24)

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Kickers

The Giants have been feeding a lot of mouths this offseason, but Gano could be next on the list if he stays as productive as he’s been for them of late.

Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU, 29)
Graham Gano (NYG, 36)
Chase McLaughlin (TB, 27)

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Punters

Townsed secure a $2.6M tender to remain in KC this season, but could push Michael Dickson's $3.6M per year number with a multi-year extension or free agent contract.

Corey Bojorquez (CLE, 27)
Tommy Townsend (KC, 27)
Thomas Morstead (NYJ, 37)

VIEW ALL

Quarterbacks

Free Agency

3 Free Agent signings are projected to be Week 1 starters for their new teams: Derek Carr in New Orleans, Jimmy Garoppolo in Las Vegas, & Baker Mayfield in Tampa.

Carr secured the most guaranteed at signing (by far), with a $60M lock through 2024, while Garoppolo’s deal carried $33.75M guaranteed - as long as he was able to pass a training camp physical.

When excluding these two large deals, the average free agent QB contract from 2023 came in at $3.8M - middle of the road backup money. For the most part, teams aren’t letting anyone at this position get to the open market anymore.

All 2023 QB Free Agent Signings

Extensions

9 QBs locked in contract extensions this offseason, including 3 (Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert) that reset the market at their time of signing. Based on structure, these three quarterbacks should see a combined $583M in the next few seasons, with Herbert ($218M practically guaranteed) leading the way.

Daniel Jones & Geno Smith represent the next tier of QB extension money, locking into deals that begin as 2/$82M, & 1/$27.5M respectively for practical purposes.

All 2023 QB Extensions

Rankings

11 quarterbacks now carry a contract that averages at least $40M per year, while 3 have now eclipsed the $50M mark. The 50 veteran QBs currently under contract carry an average salary of $16.7M this season. The 32 supposed starting QBs (so Kyler Murray instead of Joshua Dobbs), combine for an average salary of $25.3M, the highest it’s ever been.

From a guarantee standpoint, Deshaun Watson’s $230M still stands on its own, but Herbert’s $218M of practical guarantee, and Lamar Jackson’s $135M fully guaranteed at signing how now set new barometers for the next wave of deals.

It used to be pretty standard practice for teams to allocate about 18% of the league salary cap to a veteran QB contract. There are now 7 contracts that account for more than 20% of the current salary cap threshold, with Justin Herbert’s $52.5M representing 23.35% in 2023.

Lamar Jackson’s $72.5M signing bonus from Baltimore obliterated the previous league high (Dak Prescott, $66M). Most teams have opted to utilize a 2, 3, or even 4 bonus structure to keep a flatter cash flow, but when the player holds as much leverage as Lamar Jackson had this spring, these upfront pay days will continue to exist going forward.

Looking Ahead

Kyler Murray’s status and subsequent contract options in Arizona will continue to be a must-watch scenario this season.

Patrick Mahomes already working to get out of his 12 year contract and into something fresh should be a warning shot to all QBs/agents. The money in this league is moving too quickly, and the power of the QB is running in unison with it. Keep it quick and dirty until further notice.

3 starting QBs (Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill) enter 2023 in contract years. It’s very possible that all three hit the open market next March 13th.

A NUMBER of current starting QBs will at least be in the discussion for a new contract in the coming months. They include: Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields

Running Backs

Free Agency

Miles Sanders & David Montgomery were the big names entering free agency, and they were rewarded with guarantees of $13M, $11M respectively. The highest average salary handed out to a free agent running back was processed just a few weeks ago, with Dalvin Cook signing a 1 year, $7M base value deal in NY.

In total, 38 running backs signed free agent contracts this offseason for a combined total of $61.9M fully guaranteed at signing, $1.6M per player.

All Free Agent Running Back Signings

Extensions

2 of the 5 running backs extensions this summer involved teams “sweetening the pot” from a franchise tag. The Raiders added $1.7M to Josh Jacobs’ tag number (by way of per game active bonuses), while the Giants gave Saquon Barkley the opportunity to earn an extra $990,000 by way of incentives for 2023. Not exactly a glaring campaign for the next generation of hopefully running backs.

All 2023 Running Back Extensions

Rankings

Christian McCaffrey has been the highest average paid running back in football since April of 2020, and there doesn’t appear to be a candidate to supplant him on the horizon. There’s a very real world where at least 3 of the Top 5 running back contracts in the league are dissipated after 2023 (Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones), bringing the position closer and closer to falling completely under the $10M per year mark.

The largest contract guarantee for a running back in 2023 went to Bijan Robinson, whose rookie contract in Atlanta fully guarantees him $21.9M through 2026. Robinson now holds the 4th largest guarantee of any active RB in the league, with draft-mate Jahmyr Gibbs ($17.8M) coming in at 6th.

When assuming two starting running backs per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 64 players chimes in at $3.39M, with a median coming in at just north of $1.6M. The minimum salary for a 7+ year veteran in the league is $1.165M this season.

Current Running Back Rankings

Looking Ahead

Jonathan Taylor’s status in Indy remains must-see-social-media. There’s a world where he joins a new team by Halloween, and is subsequently offered a near top of the market extension to be the workhorse for 2-3 seasons. Remember when that was a normal scenario for star running backs?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is fully guaranteed $2M this season, but doesn’t appear to have a role with the Chiefs. His ice he stands on entering 2023 couldn’t be thinner, despite the financial security.

Queue up another laundry list of potentially available running backs for next March:
Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, & Tony Pollard are all probably headed toward a second franchise tag in February, until they’re not. Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, D'Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, & A.J. Dillon could all hit the open market next spring.

Wide Receivers

Free Agency

It was a much quieter offseason in 2023 than this position saw a year ago, but 7 players locked in a guarantee at signing of at least $10M regardless, led by Allen Lazard’s $22M fully guaranteed from the Jets.

With that said, only 3 players (Allen Lazard, JuJu Smith-Schuster, & Adam Thielen) signed free agent contracts that contain 2 years of guarantee security. Everything else is a veritable or actual 1 & Done situation.

All Wide Receiver Free Agent Signings

Extensions

If you had DeVante Parker & Kalif Raymond as your top WR extensions this offseason, we should probably discuss a job opportunity here at Spotrac. Most of the big-name receivers were paid in 2022, leaving the cupboards fairly bare this time around. However, 9th inning walk off deal for Justin Jefferson in Minnesota would certainly change the dynamics of this list.

All 2023 Wide Receiver Extensions

Rankings

Tyreek Hill’s $30M mark still stands atop the list, but it’s a $24M per year contract for practical purposes (back loaded with a silly $45M salary to prop up the metrics). 13 WRs now earn at least $20M per year on average, while 22 are now at the $15M+ mark.

Cooper Kupp’s $75M guaranteed for practical purposes is still the high mark in that regard, but Justin Jefferson should annihilate that shortly, with Hill’s $52.5M fully guaranteed at signing is the number to beat from that side of the spectrum.

When assuming four starting wide receivers per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 128 players chimes in at $6.3M, with a median point coming in at exactly $3M. These numbers nearly double that of the 64 starting running backs in the game right now. The Top 64 WRs in the game carry an average salary north of $11M.

Looking Ahead

Justin Jefferson & CeeDee Lamb should represent the next big contracts at the position, continuing to push things forward quickly in a pass-first game.

A few notable names enter the season on expiring contracts: Tee Higgins (CIN), Mike Evans (TB), Marquise Brown (ARI), Calvin Ridley (JAX), while a few others will be looking to bolster their value in 2023 as they seek another NFL contract: Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Van Jefferson, Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Tight Ends

Free Agency

Despite a fairly nice list of available players, only 1 tight free agent end eclipsed $10M+ guaranteed this offseason (Hayden Hurst, $13M, Carolina), and only 2 (Hurst & Foster Moreau), signed deals that should last two seasons.

More proof that the Tight End financial market is quickly falling into Running Back territory.

All Tight End Free Agent Signings

Extensions

T.J. Hockenson offered a late splash to this metric with a $66M extension to remain in Minnesota this August. The deal includes $40.2M practically guaranteed, #1 among all active tight ends. This was a much needed contract for the position, after “fair-market” deals for Cole Kmet ($32M guaranteed) & Evan Engram ($24M guaranteed) hit the books early in the summer.

Juwan Johnson’s 2 year, $12M deal in New Orleans might just turn out to be the best value of all by year-end, as the 26-year-old is projected to have a major role in Derek Carr’s passing game this fall.

All 2023 Tight End Extensions

Rankings

Darren Waller’s $17M per year extension remains the highest average salary at the position, but T.J. Hockenson’s $16.5M deal not only approaches it, it provides $2.5M more per year in upfront cash flow. Hockenson’s deal also contains a year-early vest for his 3rd season salary, a rarity for Tight Ends and a very good place for the next group of players to work from in their own negotiations.

The game’s elite Tight Ends are accounting for around 7% of the league salary cap based on recent contracts. This represents about half of where the top Wide Receivers in the game fall in, and about ? of the going rate for a QB.

When assuming two starting Tight Ends per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 64 players chimes in at $5.2M, with a median point coming in at $2.7M. 

Looking Ahead

With the exception of Kyle Pitts (who needs a massive 2023 to get back on track), the prospect of another big Tight End contract coming around the corner is thin right now.

It’s possible that the Chiefs redo something with Travis Kelce in the next few months a bit of back & forward pay gesture, but it’s not a guarantee for the near 34-year-old.

George Kittle’s contract guarantees fall off after 2023, putting his remaining 2 year, $29M in a bit of question.

Offensive Lines

Free Agency

O-Line is still where the free agent money is at. 11 contracts of $20M or more (total value) were signed this offseason, with 4 offering guarantees north of $28M.

Jawaan Taylor (4 years, $80M, $60M guaranteed) was the big winner not only financially, but also in joining the Chiefs this spring, while Mike McGlinchey left San Francisco for Denver to the tune of $87.5M ($50M guaranteed).

Top Guarantees by Position
Left Tackle: Orlando Brown Jr. ($31.1M)
Right Tackle: Jawaan Taylor ($60M)
Guard: Ben Powers ($28.5M)
Center: Jason Kelce ($14.25M)

All Free Agent Offensive Lineman Signings

Extensions

We told you Andrew Thomas was going to break the bank this summer, and the Giants didn’t let us down. The 23-year-old signed a $117.5M extension in NY, including $67M fully guaranteed at signing.

All-2023-Extension-O-Line
Left Tackle: Andrew Thomas (NYG, $67M guaranteed)
Guard: Chris Lindstrom (ATL, $48.2M guaranteed)
Guard: Shaq Mason (HOU, $22M guaranteed)
Center: Jason Kelce (PHI, $14.25M guaranteed)

All 2023 Offensive Line Extensions

Rankings

Laremy Tunsil’s latest deal in Houston ($25M per year) now makes him the highest average paid OL in NFL history. The 29-year-old Left Tackle is fully guaranteed for the next 2 ½ years, with $72M+ now practical through 2025. 8 offensive lineman now earn $20M+ per year, while a whopping 31 now sit on contracts of $15M per year or more.

Andrew Thomas didn’t just bag the most guaranteed in NFL history ($67M), he got all of it fully guaranteed at signing, making him the number to beat in all regards.

As OL contracts continue to soar, so will the initial signing bonuses associated with them. Orlando Brown Jr. reset that market this offseason with a $31.1M bonus check to join the Bengals.

When assuming five starting Offensive Linemen per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 160 players chimes in at $7.2M, with a median point coming in at $4.5M. The Top 64 Offensive Linemen carry an average salary of $14.1M into the season.

Looking Ahead

Multiple starting left tackles are slated for free agency after 2023, including Tyron Smith (DAL), Duane Brown (NYJ), Donovan Smith (KC), & Trenton Brown (NE).

But for now, it appears that this could be the “winter of Guards”, as more than 50 players could hit the open market next March. Chris Lindstrom resent the Guard market this past spring, staying in Atlanta on a $20.5M per year deal.

With tackles now north of $25M, look for market resets both at Guard & Center to become big talking points in the coming year, as interior offensive linemen continue to become primary positions in today’s game.

A look at a contract extension candidate (or two) from almost every NFL team heading into the 2023 regular season, including projected valuations for each.
Related: Recent Market Valuations

Arizona Cardinals

WR Marquise Brown

1 year, $13.413M remaining (2024 UFA)
The 26-year-old has had up and down seasons with both Baltimore & Arizona to begin his career, but he’s remained a heavily targeted option no matter the situation. Christian Kirk (JAX, $18M) remains his best comparable, putting him in line for a 3 year, $54M extension currently.

Also: Budda Baker (S, 27, 1 year, $14.3M)

Atlanta Falcons

CB A.J. Terrell

2 years, $14.9M remaining (2025 UFA)

The #16 overall selection back in 2020 has long been the lone standout in Atlanta’s secondary, but should see a much easier path to success in 2023 with the likes of Jessie Bates now behind him. He’s not extension-eligible for the first time, with a $20M per year extension very much in sight.

Also: Kyle Pitts (TE, 22, Extension-Eligible after 2023)

Baltimore Ravens

RB JK Dobbins

1 year, $1.4M remaining (2024 UFA)

The former 2nd rounder has only seen action in 23 games to start his career, but there have been plenty of flashes that he can be every bit the versatile weapon he was drafted to be. If a projected $11.5M franchise tag in 2024 is too rich for Baltimore to live with, look for a multi-year extension offer that provides cap/cash relief over the next few seasons. It’s hard to imagine that contract approaching $5M per year right now however.

Also: Patrick Queen (LB, 24, 1 year, $2.2M)

Buffalo Bills

WR Gabriel Davis

1 year, $2.7M remaining (2024 UFA)

The 24-year-old battled injury and inconsistent play in 2022, dropping his potential extension stock quite a bit this past offseason. With that said, he also posted career highs in receptions, yards, & touchdowns in 2022, so it’s plausible to assume that a more consistent campaign for 2023 will put him right back in contract discussion. Allen Lazard’s 4 year, $44M deal in NY aligns best with Davis’ current resume.

Also: Dion Dawkins (LT, 29, 2 years, $20M)

Carolina Panthers

EDGE Brian Burns

1 year, $16M remaining (2024 UFA)

Burns and the Panthers have been in negotiations for quite some time, but it’s been publicly stated that the sides remain far apart heading toward Week 1. The 25-year-old posted career highs across the board in 2022, including 12.5 sacks in 16 games. Maxx Crosby’s 4 year, $94M deal with the Raiders currently stands as the best comparable here.

Also: Derrick Brown (DT, 25, 2 years, $15.4M)

Chicago Bears

WR Darnell Mooney

1 year, $2.9M (2024 UFA)

The 25-year-old is only 1 season removed from an 81 catch, 1,055 yard season in Chicago, so the idea of keeping him around for a few more seasons is certainly within reach. A cap-adjusted version of Jakobi Meyers’ 3 year, $33M deal in Las Vegas is a reasonable starting point if Mooney can remain healthy in 2023.

Also: Justin Fields (QB, 24, Extension-Eligible after 2023)

Cincinnati Bengals

QB Joe Burrow

2 years, $35M remaining (2025 UFA)

The next blockbuster QB is likely just days away, though we’ve been saying that for months now. The current top of the market sits at: $52.5M per year (Herbert), $135M guaranteed at signing (Jackson), $218M practically guaranteed (Herbert), $133M 3-Year cash flow (Herbert). Burrow is of course in the conversation to surpass all of these metrics.

Also: Tee Higgins (WR, 24, 1 year, $3M)

Cleveland Browns

WR Amari Cooper

2 years, $40M remaining (2025 UFA)

The early guarantee portion of Cooper’s $100M contract have long since expired, and while a healthy $40M still remains, it’s plausible to assume that any sort of repeat performance to 2022 (76 catches, 1,109 yards, 9 TD) will warrant a rip-it-up-and-start-over conversation. Stefon Diggs’ $22.5M per year makes sense for now.

Dallas Cowboys

QB Dak Prescott

2 years, $65M remaining (2025 UFA)

The Cowboys have converted salary to signing bonus each of the first 3 seasons of Dak’s contract, increasing his 2024 cap figure to $59.5M. They’ll lower that number with a contract extension this time around, with Russell Wilson’s $48.5M per year mark his current best comparable.

Also: Micah Parsons (LB, 24, Extension-Eligible after 2023)

Denver Broncos

LB Josey Jewell

1 year, $5M remaining (2024 UFA)

He’s only played 15 games in the past two seasons, and the organization drafted a potential replacement in Drew Sanders in this April’s 3rd round, but a strong turn around in 2023 can certainly put an extension back on the table. Eric Kendrick’s 2 year, $13.25M in LA might be a ceiling to shoot for here.

Also: Patrick Surtain II (CB, 23, Extension-Eligible after 2023)

Detroit Lions

QB Jared Goff

2 years, $52.5M remaining (2025 UFA)

Goff nearly hit career highs across the board last season for the Lions, posting a resume that resembled his first few years with the Rams. If he does it again, Detroit might not have a choice but to extend him out to his third professional contract, with $40M per year very much in play.

Also: Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, 24, Extension-Eligible after 2023)

Green Bay Packers

LB Rashan Gary

1 year, $10.8M remaining (2024 UFA)

Yes, the 26-year-old is recovering from a torn ACL, and yes, he’ll begin the season on a “pitch-count”, but Gary’s improved every season since 2019, and was on pace to obliterate his career highs before the injury last season. Once he’s back to full health, Gary’s future in Green Bay will become a focal point for the organization, with a franchise tag a likely next step. He’s on pace for a cap-adjusted version of Bradley Chubb’s $110M extension in Miami.

Also: Jon Runyan (G, 26, 1 year, $2.7M)

Houston Texans

K Ka'imi Fairbairn

1 year, $3.65M remaining (2024 UFA)

The Texans are (once again) operating with a lot of rookie contracts, and 1-year veteran deals this season, but Fairbairn is set to finish out his 4 year extension in 2023. The 29-year old made over 93% of his field goals, and 100% of his point-after-tries in 2022, giving Houston ample reason to keep him around longer. Justin Tucker’s $6M per year is still the number to beat.

Indianapolis Colts

RB Jonathan Taylor

1 year, $4.304M remaining (2024 UFA)

If this were 2018, Taylor would be a shoe-in for a next-man-up extension, but it’s not - nor should we be evaluating current running backs against the likes of McCaffrey, or Kamara’s current contracts - as they’re being extinguished by every team in football. Based on the past 4 years of running back financial data, Taylor is now a $10.7M player in our system, not much away from the projected $11.5M franchise tag for running backs next season.

Also: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, 26, 1 year, $2.9M)

Jacksonville Jaguars

LB Josh Allen

1 year, $10.8M remaining (2024 UFA)

Despite back to back solid seasons, very little has been said publicly about the Jaguars potentially extending their 2019 #7 overall pick. Allen seems content to play out his $10.8M option season, with a franchise tag or free agency looming thereafter. He projects to a 4 year, $88M contract in our system right now.

Also: Trevor Lawrence (QB, 24, Extension-Eligible after 2023)

Kansas City Chiefs

DT Chris Jones

1 year, $20M remaining (2024 UFA)

Jones isn’t backing down from his year-long request for a fresh contract, and it’ll soon cost him game checks ($1,083,333 per week missed). The 29-year-old should be the next $30M defenseman, with $75M-$90M of practical guarantees included in his next deal. This is certainly a situation that all 32 teams are monitoring closely.

Also: L'Jarius Sneed (CB, 26, 1 year, $2.7M)

Las Vegas Raiders

None

Los Angeles Chargers

CB Michael Davis

1 year, $7.4M remaining (2024 UFA)

If it ain’t broke. Davis has quietly become one of the more reliable defensive players in the AFC. He stands to finish out a 3 year, $25M contract this upcoming season, and projects to that exact same deal again going forward.

Also: Austin Ekeler (RB, 28, 1 year, $6.25M)

Los Angeles Rams

WR Van Jefferson

1 year, $1.3M remaining (2024 UFA)

After a very promising 2021, Jefferson’s production declined in 2022 (along with every Rams player). But a late summer injury to Cooper Kupp should hand Jefferson legitimate WR1 target shares. With a rookie contract set to expire after 2023, the timing could be very much in his favor. For now, Jefferson is a $7M player in our system (3 years, $21M).

Miami Dolphins

C Connor Williams

1 year, $7M remaining (2024 UFA)

Williams moved from guard to center prior to the 2022 season, and he’s set to be the Week 1 starter there again in 2023, the final year of his current contract. He projects to a $13.5M per year contract in our system.

Also: Robert Hunt (G, 27, 1 year, $2.9M)

Minnesota Vikings

WR Justin Jefferson

2 years, $22M remaining (2025 UFA)

Jefferson and the Vikings have been working all summer to come to terms on a rookie extension, but with Week 1 around the corner, it appears unlikely that will happen this offseason. There are no loopholes here. He’s put together one of the best starts to a career in NFL history, making $30M per year not only a floor, but an insult at this point.

Also: Kirk Cousins (QB, 35, 1 year, $30M)

New England Patriots

LB Josh Uche

1 year, $1.3M remaining (2024 UFA)

The 2020 2nd rounder had a miserable first two seasons in New England, but broke out with a bang in 2022 (11.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles in 14 games). Staying healthy might be the biggest concern here, though the Patriots almost certainly want to make sure he can recreate last year’s success one more season before offering anything substantial. Arden Key’s recent 3 year, $21M deal in Tennessee is a strong comparable right now.

Also: Kyle Dugger (S, 27, 1 year, $2.7M)

New Orleans Saints

None.

New York Giants

DE Leonard Williams

1 year, $18M remaining (2024 UFA)

Williams has been filling up the stat board in NY for the better part of the last three seasons, but was back-burnered for an extension with other mouths to feed (Jones, Waller, Thomas, Lawrence). Now approaching 30 years old, Chandler Jones’ 3 year, $51M contract appears the best comp going forward.

Also: Graham Gano (K, 36, 1 year, $3.75M)

New York Jets

LB Bryce Huff

1 year, $4.3M remaining (2024 UFA)

Despite being buried in the depth chart (especially for the upcoming season), Huff has managed to make the most of his limited opportunities. He’s as much a trade candidate as he is an extension one entering the season, but he’ll be one of the more coveted players on the open market if he’s allowed to get there next March.

Philadelphia Eagles

DE Josh Sweat

2 years, $26M remaining (2025 UFA)

Sweat has compiled 93 tackles, 18.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a pick in the past two seasons, and is fully entrenched in a starting DE role for this loaded Eagles roster. While he’s under contract through 2024, an $18.7M cap figure next season likely warrants some attention. Will Philly be able to keep him long term at or around his current $21.5M valuation?

Also: DeVonta Smith (WR, 24, Extension-Eligible after 2023)

Pittsburgh Steelers

CB Levi Wallace

1 year, $4M remaining

Wallace has been as advertised both as a member of the Bills for 4 seasons, and in his first year with Pittsburgh. His role could increase in 2023, making his expiring contract more of a priority for this Steelers organization (especially if they put together a few more wins than anticipated). Cam Sutton’s 3 year, $33M could become a nice comp for Wallace as a starting outside CB.

San Francisco 49ers

DE Nick Bosa

1 year, $17.8M remaining (2024 UFA)

Bosa’s resume isn’t free of red flags, but 34 sacks, 103 tackles, and 6 forced fumbles in any 2-year span should trump almost all “buts” in the negotiation room. Most believe the pending extension won’t just surpass the top average salary in non-QB history ($31.6M) - it’ll obliterate it.

Also: Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 25, 2 years, $16.4M)

Seattle Seahawks

G Damien Lewis

1 year, $2.9M remaining (2024 UFA)

The projected Week 1 starting left guard in Seattle is entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn nearly $3M thanks to a proven performance escalator. If he holds down the starting gig, a 3 year, $21M contract could keep things together going forward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

LT Tristan Wirfs

2 years, $21M remaining (2025 UFA)

Wirfs will slide over from right to left tackle in 2023, as the Buccaneers find themselves stuck in between a rebuild and a high-priced roster season. The numbers have been tremendous, and if he continues to produce on the left side of the line, he should have zero struggle eclipsing $25M per year sooner rather than later.

Also: Mike Evans (WR, 30, 1 year, $14.5M)

Tennessee Titans

QB Ryan Tannehill

1 year, $27M remaining (2024 UFA)

The Titans had chances to tear this thing down and sell off parts for draft picks this March - but they didn’t. They did however draft a QB with a fairly high pick for the second season in a row, but early reports don’t yet scream “future of the franchise”. If the Titans remain in contention for the division this season, it will be hard to see them allowing Tannehill to walk away into free agency with no viable replacement ready to step in. A 2 year, $70M extension is probably the going rate for this type of holdover maneuver.

Washington Commanders

DE Montez Sweat

1 year, $11.5M remaining (2024 UFA)

When healthy, Sweat has consistently been a 9 sack, 45 tackle player for the Commanders, placing him on a $16M+ valuation this offseason. Washington has already fed plenty of mouths on the defensive side of the ball, and are still holding out hope that Chase Young gives them reason to consider another one next March. It seems more and more likely that Sweat becomes a very good name to hit the open market.

Also: Chase Young (DE, 24, 1 year, $10.9M)

As we approach final cuts and Week 1 roster announcements for the 2023 season, we'll take a look at how each offensive weapon position lines up in terms of average starting. We've identified the "expected" starters for each team's QB1, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, TE1, & TE2 this season, pulling out average salary data for each to assess the positions as a whole.

Related: 2023 NFL Financial Depth Charts

QUARTERBACKS

Average QB1 AAV: $25,379,910
32 Combined QB1 AAVs: $812,157,112

The 32 projected starting QBs for 2023 carry an average salary just north of $25M. They range from Justin Herbert’s $52.5M, down to Brock Purdy’s $934k. 18 QBs (56% of the league) now hold a contract averaging at least $20M per year, with Joe Burrow ready to make it 19. The $812M+ of combined contract averages is more than all 32 #1 running backs plus all 32 #1 wide receivers, plus all 32 #1 tight ends combined - with $5M still to spare.

RUNNING BACKS

Average RB1 AAV: $5,237,958
32 Combined RB1 AAVs: $167,614,659
Average RB2 AAV: $1,980,169
Average RB1+RB2 AAV: $7,218,127

The projected starting RB1s for 2023 carry average salaries that range from Khalil Herbert’s $902k, up to Christian McCaffrey’s $16M. 19 RB1s (60%) carry an average salary less than $5M right now, while only 8 (25%) carry one north of $10M. The average salary for an RB2 has dipped under $2M this year, with teams spreading out their allocations more than ever. On average, teams are spending around $7.2M for their top two running backs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Average WR1 AAV: $12,656,879
32 Combined WR1 AAVs: $405,020,130
Average WR2 AAV: $6,748,827
Average WR1+WR2 AAV: $19,405,706

Things have really taken off for this position, especially following a wild 2022 offseason spending spree. The average WR1 ($12.6M) will take in more than double what the average RB1 ($5.2M) will this season, while even the WR2 middle point ($6.7M) stands healthily above the RB mark. 16 WR1s (50%) carry an average salary of $10M or more, while only 1 (Isaiah Hodgins, NYG, $870k) lives under the $1M mark. The average cost for a team’s top 4 receivers chimes in around $25.5M, with the Raiders ($56.6M) heavily leading the league, while Indy ($5.9M) easily brings up the rear.

TIGHT ENDS

Average TE1 AAV: $7,318,656
32 Combined TE1 AAVs: $234,196,988
Average TE2 AAV: $2,981,396
Average TE1+TE2 AAV: $10,300,052

11 TE1s carry an average salary north of $10M this year, led by Darren Waller’s restructured deal in NY. 7 projected starting tight ends are operating on a contract averaging less than $2M, as a quiet devaluation of the position continues to roll in. The average cost for two tight ends on a team ($10.3M) is millions less than the average cost for a WR1 ($12.6M) right now.

As the MLB regular season takes a turn for the final stretch, we'll take a moment to analyze where the 10 Largest Free Agent Contracts from this past Winter/Spring land in terms of value and production. Spoiler: Things haven't gone particularly well.

Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees)

9 years, $360,000,000

The Yankees signed Judge through the 2031 season, fully guaranteed, and if not for a freakish toe injury that derailed the middle of his 2023 campaign, would have already paid back huge dividends on it. Judge still carries an OPS north of 1, and a WAR north of 3 in just 64 games to date, and the power numbers are as impressive as ever to go along with it. He remains a cornerstone player for the Yankees to (re)build around going forward.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (6.2% according to FanGraphs)

Trea Turner (SS, Phillies)

11 years, $300,000,000

Even a late season heat up won’t salvage a down year for Turner, who is trending toward career lows in many areas of production for 2023. Philly will be seeking the 4.9 WAR player Turner was in 2022 for the next 10 seasons ($272M)

Postseason Status: Likely (83.8% according to FanGraphs)

Xander Bogaerts (SS, Padres)

11 years, $280,000,000

Bogaerts’ move to San Diego was a bit of a surprise, and he hasn’t exactly rewarded them for their spending spree. His line drive and batted ball percentages are at career lows as it’s clear his approach has been to look more opposite field in a lineup that can do everything (when it’s right). This simply might be a case of ‘new team, new scenario”, that improves mightily in Year 2. With $250M remaining over 10 years, San Diego is certainly banking on that.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (22% according to FanGraphs)

Carlos Correa (SS, Twins)

6 years, $200,000,000

Correa opted out of his contract following a .291/.366/.467/.834 2022 where he compiled a 5.5 WAR for his efforts. Let’s just say 2023 has been a different story. The 28-year-old currently carries a career low .231 batting average and a career low .306 on base percentage - despite fairly consistent power numbers based on his past few seasons (30 2B, 20+ HR pace currently). The Twins are succeeding despite his lack of overall consistency, and it might something they have to live with based on what we know about Correa medically speaking. Contractually we’re talking about at least $164M over the next 5 seasons, with 4 vesting options based on availability and production thereafter.

Postseason Status: Likely (90.8% according to FanGraphs)

Jacob deGrom (SP, Rangers)

5 years, $185,000,000

Unfortunately for everyone involved here, deGrom’s injury concerns became a reality after just 6 starts in Texas. He underwent successful Tommy John surgery on June 18th, and his timetable to return is currently unknown - especially based on his past issues. There’s another $155M remaining on this contract through 2027.

Postseason Status: Likely (91.5% according to FanGraphs)

Dansby Swanson (SS, Cubs)

7 years, $177,000,000

The batting average has dipped a little bit, but everything else about Swanson’s first season in Chicago screams “expected”, if not slightly more than. He appears to have filled the exact hole he was brought in to fill: veteran player at a position of importance beginning the process of turning a young team into a contender. The Cubs have shown flashes of that this season, and have a chance to sneak into October baseball still.

Postseason Status: Possibly (54% according to FanGraphs)

Carlos Rodon (SP, Yankees)

6 years, $162,000,000

When this contract was announced, the collective response was that the number seemed “low” for one of the better starting pitcher options on the open market. Many pointed to injury history as one of the factors seemingly built into this deal, and boy did that pan out quickly. Rodon missed 100 days due to an arm injury, and finds himself back on the IL with a hamstring pull currently. Rodon was able to put together really strong back-to-back campaigns in 2021 & 2022, so the Yankees are certainly banking on a return to form for the remaining 5 years, $135M.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (6.2% according to FanGraphs)

Brandon Nimmo (OF, Mets)

8 years, $162,000,000

Despite the “house is burning down” screams surrounding the Mets’ organization as a whole, Nimmo is actually producing at typical Nimmo production for the 2023 campaign. This is simply going to be a case of a good player being overpaid. The Mets are currently on the hook for another $141.75M through 2030.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.8% according to FanGraphs)

Edwin Diaz (RP, Mets)

5 years, $102,000,000

Diaz tore a tendon in his right knee at the World Baseball Classic, prior to the start of the 2023 season. It was a sign of things to come for the Mets, who are nearing elimination from the postseason, despite an historic payroll. Diaz is guaranteed another $78.25MM through 2027, though he holds a player opt-out after 2025 (unlikely).

Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.8% according to FanGraphs)

Willson Contreras (C, Cardinals)

5 years, $87,500,000

A lot of the Cardinals’ 2023 season has been uncomfortable to watch, but maybe nothing more so than the phase where newly signed Contreras - heir to the great Yadier Molina - was publicly dismissed from his catching duties for a variety of reasons (none good). He’s caught 70 games to date, and his fielding numbers resemble the majority of his career numbers for the most part, so it appears for now that we’re onward and upward, but don’t be surprised if we hear St. Louis shopping the 31-year-old this winter. Contractually, Contreras carries $72.5M over the next 4 seasons. The Cardinals will most certainly be eating a large portion of this to trade him.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.4% according to FanGraphs)

As preseason games begin, it's a great time to evaluate the current & future contracts of all 32 (projected) starting Quarterbacks for the upcoming season. For the third straight year, we've developed a set of custom tiers to organize the players into, ranging from our Locked & Loaded setup, down to our "Might Not Make Week 8" predictions. All of these groupings are based on two things: What the Contract Says, and What Common Sense Says.

• Locked & Loaded
• Locked but Ready to Reload
• Locked but the Security System is Down
• The (Future) Departed
• Playing for the Bag
• Time for Two
• When Two Becomes One
• One & Done?
• Might Not Make Week 8

Locked & Loaded

Players who are under contract with guarantees that live more than two years out right now, and have no “extension” in sight.

Josh Allen (Bills)

Allen enters Year 3 of an 8 year deal in Buffalo, set to earn $28M for the 2023 campaign. All of his $30M 2024 compensation is already fully guaranteed, as is $25M from his 2025 cash package. There’s a clear out for the BIlls after the 2025 season, despite 3 years, $120M left on the contract at that point.

Russell Wilson (Broncos)

Wilson’s $28M for 2023 is fully guaranteed. His $39M for 2024 is fully guaranteed. And by next March, his $37M for 2025 will be fully guaranteed. That $104M represents the practical remaining contract for Russ, who is looking to build on a career low season in 2022.

Deshaun Watson (Browns)

2022 was always going to be a throw-away year for Watson, as he missed 11 games due to suspension, and tried to ramp up quickly with his new team thereafter. Now, it’s about the 4 years, $184M fully guaranteed remaining, and cap hits of $64M in each of 2024-2026. A lot of teams will be watching how Cleveland handles this situation in the coming years.

Justin Herbert (Chargers)

Despite little team success in his first 3 NFL seasons, Herbert has checked all of the boxes that teams look for when trying to identify a “franchise” QB. LA rewarded him with $218M practically guaranteed through the 2028 season. It’s a Kyler Murray type structure for Herbert, and a team that may be going through a similar “rebuild on the fly” process that the Cardinals are currently experiencing. But locking down the QB1 was a no-brainer for the franchise regardless.

Anthony Richardson (Colts)

Richardson hasn’t officially been named Indy’s Week 1 starter, but the more we hear about him, the more it seems like we’ll get there soon. Contract years for WR Michael Pittman and RB Jonathan Taylor could make for a big inaugural season for Richardson, who’s skillset and athleticism alone could set him apart from many of his peers. Contractually, he’s guaranteed $34M through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027 as needed.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles)

Hurts replaced a non-guaranteed $4.3M expiring rookie salary with $110M fully guaranteed at signing, and more than $208M practically guaranteed through 2027. A quadruple bonus structure (the real Philly Special), keep initial cap hits tempered, putting the franchise in a very good position to retain/add the next few offseason. Hurts bagged a $20M raise this year on the new deal, and basically took a franchise tag payout ($40M) for 2024.

Bryce Young (Panthers)

The #1 overall selection is a lock to take the Week 1 snaps for Carolina, who aren’t being shy about adding savvy veterans (even as we speak) to continue to build a deep and experienced roster around Young. It’s a sign that they know exactly what they have in a 22-year-old QB1, and we should all be watching closely. Young is fully guaranteed at $38M through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027 as needed.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

Agent. No Agent. Hold out. No Hold out. Lamar did well for himself this spring, locking in $208M over the next 4 seasons for practical purposes. There’s a $74.65M cap hit sitting in 2026 that will certainly get a conversation started sooner rather than later.

C.J. Stroud (Texans)

Stroud still hasn’t officially been named Houston’s Week 1 starter, but it’s certainly trending in that direction. The Texans added a few veteran weapons to the offense, preceding his arrival, including RB Devin Singletary, TE Dalton Schultz, & WR Robert Woods. Contractually, Stroud is fully guaranteed at $36M through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027 as needed.

Locked but Ready to Reload

Players who are under contract with multi-year guarantees, but are in negotiations for a restructured extension.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Imagine having 9 years, $414.55M remaining on your contract (almost all of it guaranteed early), and both you and your team publicly agreeing that it’s just simply not good enough to move forward with. That’s where Mahomes & the Chiefs currently stand, and it’s largely expected that some form of restructured contract will be announced in the coming months. Until then, the almost 28-year-old is due $40.45M in 2023, the most he’s earned in a year by far.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

After tumultuous negotiations to hammer down a rookie extension (double tags, leg injury), the Cowboys and Prescott are already back at the drawing board - after 2 years, $95M. The current contract holds 2 years, $65M remaining, but most are eyeing a $59.455M cap hit for 2024 as a reason to start working on things immediately, and rightfully so. Prescott values toward a 4 year, $250M extension in our system.

Joe Burrow (Bengals)

The decorated 26-year-old is amidst blockbuster extension negotiations, with 2 years, $35M remaining on his rookie deal. Justin Herbert’s $218M of practical guarantee is the number to watch for a new Burrow contract, though a shorter term would certainly favor the player here (especially one with his resume).

Locked but the Security System is Down

A tier of one is never good news for a player, and Murray’s future could be heading toward unprecedented territory.

Kyler Murray (Cardinals)

An ACL tear cut Murray’s extension debut season short, and figures to hamper some of a $39M 2023 campaign as well. He’s practically guaranteed through 2024 right now, with year-early guarantees built into his 2025, 2026, & 2027 salaries. Murray has one of the stronger structured deals in all of football, and yet, could very well be on the trade block in 6 months if the Cardinals hit the draft lottery (as expected). This one could get messy.

The (Future) Departed

Players set to play out an expiring contract in 2023, with a future in their respective franchise unknown at this stage.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings)

Kirk D. Cousins is staring down a familiar path - pending free agency. The last time he was here, he penned a fully guaranteed 3 year contract with the Vikings, tacking on back to back guaranteed extensions thereafter. For now, it’s a 1 year, $30M expiring deal for 2023, with a huge question mark for next March. Cousins is a $45M per year player in our system right now.

Ryan Tannehill (Titans)

The 35-year-old is on an expiring contract in 2023, set to earn $27M (none of which guarantees until Week 1). Tennessee has selected a mid-level QB prospect in each of the last two drafts (Malik Willis, Will Levis) but neither appear ready to wrestle 1st-team snaps away from Tannehill yet. With that said, it would be a surprise if he remained in Tennessee after the 2023 campaign.

Playing for the Bag

Players either trending toward an early rookie extension, or vets heading toward an extendable point of their current deal.

Justin Fields (Bears)

Fields offered the Bears a better version of himself in 2022, improving in every major statistical category over his rude awakening rookie debut. The team has added significant pieces across the board this spring, including a shiny new toy in D.J. Moore for Fields to link up with on Sundays. There’s a world where we’re discussing his rookie extension in a few months, and another world where we’re debating his replacement plan. It’s a 2 year, $5.5M guarantee through 2024 on his rookie deal, and Chicago will need to make a decision on his 5th-year option next May.

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)

Tua is extension eligible as we speak, but common sense says the Dolphins need to see a few more Ws on the field, and a lot more healthy weeks strung together from their QB1 before they get serious about a serious pay raise. With that said, Tua is now in a Jalen Hurts’ spot, where the team has exhausted resources from every channel possible to build a contender around him. If he does his part, and the Dolphins go on a run in 2023, a blockbuster extension should be a slam dunk next spring.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)

The Jaguars are rounding into postseason form just as Lawrence is set to become extension eligible. If all goes well, this should lead to more historic financials for the QB position next summer, with contracts for Burrow & Herbert as new baselines for the 23 year old.

Jared Goff (Lions)

Goff has really re-centered his career with the change of scenery, and there are legitimate conversations about a post-2023 extension to keep him at the helm of the Lions’ offensive for the foreseeable future. Strong season from both him and the team probably locks in this notion, with a mid-40s per year contract easily in range. For now, Goff sits on a 2 year, $52.6M contract, including $26M to be earned for the upcoming season.

Time for Two

Players with new contracts that hold exactly two years of full guarantee upfront.

Daniel Jones (Giants)

Jones avoided the franchise tag in NY (thanks running backs), and was extended to an $81M guarantee through 2024. There’s a clear out thereafter, putting the remaining $78M of the contract on notice.

Aaron Rodgers (Jets)

Rodgers and Co. turned a $107M guarantee through 2024 into a $75M one with a restructured contract that lowered his overall cash payout by $33.765M. The cap hits through 2024 ($8.8M, $17.6M) are extremely team-friendly, setting the Jets up to maneuver as needed. Now can the two sides get the whole football thing synced up at a high level in a moment’s notice? We’ll soon find out.

Matthew Stafford (Rams)

A concussion derailed the first year of Stafford’s $160M extension in LA, but the Rams let another $57M of the deal fully guarantee this past March, showing confidence in the 35 year old. Stafford is now locked in through 2024, with another $10M (2025 salary) set to guarantee next March. We’ve seen the Rams pay-to-release a player more than a few times of late.

Derek Carr (Saints)

Carr was released ahead of a $40.4M guaranteed in Las Vegas, turning that into $60M guaranteed at signing ($70M practical) with the Saints soon thereafter. It’s a 2 year test run with a fun offense, with another 2 years, $80M on the backend if New Orleans wants to keep it together.

When Two Becomes One

Despite guaranteed dollars existing in the 2024 year, there's a possibility that these player's respective teams could decide to move off of the contract anyway, either via trade - or outright buyout.

Jordan Love (Packers)

A mini-restructure bought Green Bay a little financial breathing room, and more importantly, a little more time to assess if Jordan Love can take the reins under center for the foreseeable future. Love is guaranteed $13M across this and next season, with playing time/production escalators that could add another $9M to the end game. Cap hits of $4.4M this year, and $7.7M next season certainly don’t impede the Packers from keeping this roster complete around him. But if 2023 is a disaster, a $5.5M guarantee isn’t stopping most teams from moving on anymore (though it’s a pretty fair backup QB salary as well).

Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders)

With the injury concerns cleared (for now), Garoppolo has locked in $33.75M fully guaranteed through the 2024 season, $22.5M of which is built into the upcoming campaign. Is an $11.25M guarantee in 2024 enough to ensure him a roster spot? We’ve seen larger buyouts in recent scenarios.

One & Done?

Players either on actual one year contracts, or a contract that holds only one substant year of guarantee through 2023.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)

We’re just guessing at this point. Mayfield has done nothing to separate himself from Kyle Trask, who’s done nothing to separate himself from any other career backup QB in the league. We’ll assume the more experienced player gets the early nod in Tampa, playing out a fully guaranteed 1 year, $4M contract, with another $4.5M of incentives available.

Geno Smith (Seahawks)

No franchise tag, no real threat of offers from other teams, just a good ole’ fashioned logical extension for Seattle and the second coming of Geno Smith. Unfortunately, outside of a $12.7M injury guarantee, it offers the QB no security past the 2023 season out of the gate. It’s a 1 year, $27.5M contract until it’s not. Again - logical.

Might Not Make Week 8

Despite shaky 2022 seasons from a few listed here, these players aren’t eligible for an extension even if their team was dying to hand them one. That doesn’t make (any) of these players stable for 2024.

Sam Howell (Commanders)

The 5th-rounder out of UNC had a heck of a college career, and appears to have the full confidence of this Washington organization heading into the regular season. If he can stay upright and pass accurately, a combination of Terry McLaurin & Jahan Dotson should make him look pretty darn good at times. Howell sits on non-guaranteed minimum salaries ($2.95M total) through 2025.

Desmond Ridder (Falcons)

The former 3rd rounder out of Cincinnati gets the keys to one of the more fun offenses (on paper) in all of the league. Atlanta scored in droves last year, and attempted to fix the “inability to play defense” problem this past spring. Ridder could be game managing himself into a really nice spot with the Falcons come the holidays. Contractually, none of the $3.5M remaining through 2025 is guaranteed, though his rookie deal holds training camp roster bonuses that pay out a portion of his salary a few weeks early.

Mac Jones (Patriots)

It feels like a make or break year for Mac Jones (and maybe more major names in New England), who took a major step backwards, both statistically and from a reputation standpoint, in 2022. He’s fully guaranteed at $4.8M through 2024, and the Patriots will need to decide on his 5th-year option by next May.

Kenny Pickett (Steelers)

Pickett didn’t blow anyone away in his debut season, but a 64% completion rate, and his ability to scramble with a purpose at least have people interested in where this could go with a full season under his belt. There are (much) worse offensive weapon groups than the Harris, Johnson, Pickens, Freiermuth) package Pittsburgh is set to roll out in 2023, but it’s unclear if Omar Kahn did enough bolstering to the offensive line to give Pickett a fair shake this season. Contractually, he’s guaranteed $5.95M through 2025, with a 5th-year option available in 2026 as needed.

Brock Purdy (49ers)

Despite having two #3 overall selections on the depth chart alongside him, if Purdy is healthy, everyone in San Francisco is screaming that he’s the guy for 2023. He completed 67% of his passes last season, averaging 152 yards per game, but posting an extremely efficient 107.3 passer rating for 2022. He obviously understands the task at hand in San Fran’s offense, but is he skilled & physically gifted enough to remain upright and healthy for a marathon of 18+ weeks? Purdy sits on non-guaranteed minimum salaries ($2.95M total) through 2025.

QB Justin Herbert & the Los Angeles Chargers agreed to his expected rookie extension Tuesday night, giving the 25-year-old 5 new years, $262.5M new money. In total, it’s a 7 year, $292M contract for Herbert through the 2029 season, when he’ll be 31.

From an average annual salary standpoint however, Herbert becomes the new top of the market at $52.5M. He’s the 3rd such QB this offseason to reset this number, with Jalen Hurts locking in at $51M per year in the beginning of April, & Lamar Jackson upping that to $52M later that month.

Herbert isn’t expected to hold that title belt for long though, as Joe Burrow’s pending extension in Cincinnati figures to shatter most of the top QB money numbers in the coming days, but for now we'll dive deep into the full 7 year contract structure.

The Triple Bonus Structure

With 7 total years to work with, the Chargers have built in three different bonuses to Justin Herbert's new contract: a $16.1M signing bonus, a $50.6M 2nd year option bonus, and a $45M 3rd year option bonus. Each will be allowed to prorate over the maximum 5 seasons, keeping cap hits relatively low for the first 4 years of this deal. All 3 of these bonuses (and their correspoding base salaries) are fully guaranteed at signing.

The Average Annual Salary

Herbert's $52.5M new money AAV is the most in NFL history, but it only tells a piece of this story. The 7 year total value AAV rings in it $42.3M. When comparing this to other recently signed rookie extensions, Josh Allen secured a $35.5M total value AAV, while Kyler Murray locked down a slightly better $37.9M in Arizona. Jalen Hurts' total value AAV calculates to $43.2M, however Philadelphia only had 1 year, $4.3M to carry over from his rookie contract - while the other players here had a significantly more expensive 5th year option to bring with them. In short, Herbert's 7 year payout holds up amongst the rest of the recently signed QB contracts. TOP AVERAGE PAID NFL PLAYERS

The Cash Flow

Despite reports about "$100M in Year 1", it appears that Herbert's new contract pays him a little over $17M in 2023, thanks to a minimum salary and a $16.1M signing bonus. Things escalate quickly thereafter, with a $56.6M payout in 2024, and another $60M set for 2025. In total, it's a $73.7M 2-year cash flow (7th), a $133.7M 3-year flow (4th), and a $193.7M 5-year payout (5th). CUMULATIVE CASH RANKINGS

The Cap Flow

As to be expected, the first two seasons of this contract carry relatively low cap figures. Herber'ts $8.4M cap hit for 2023 is nearly identical to the figure his rookie contract carried, keeping the Chargers' current cap financials neutral. In 2024, a $29.5M 5th-year option figure has been replaced by a $19.3M cap hit, representing more than $10M of savings for LAC next season. His number jumps to $37.3M for 2025, but with a league salary cap set to rise mightly over the next few seasons, this figure should represent less than 15% of the hard threshold by then. The same could very well be true in 2026, when his $46.3M cap hit could very well be tenable for the Chargers, who haven't been known for converting too many salaries into signing bonuses on an annual basis.

2027 likely becomes a discussion point for a few reasons. 1) The Practical Guarantees will be set to expire. 2) Herbert will be approaching age 30. 3) A $58.3M cap hit likely needs to be addressed in some way shape or form. Most teams aren't in the business of redoing contracts with 3 years remaining, but this should at least be the initial discussion point.

Justin Herbert's New Cap Hits
2023: $8.45M
2024: $19.34M
2025: $37.34M
2026: $46.34M
2027: $58.34M
2028: $71.12M
2029: $59.5M

The Guarantee Structure

The new deal contains $133.7M fully guaranteed at signing, 3rd most in NFL history. The upfront guarantee is comprised of every dollar built into the 2023-2025 seasons. By March of 2025, another $24M (his 2026 salary) will become fully guaranteed. Another $36M, his 2027 salary, will become fully guaranteed in March of 2026. Both of these salaries are guaranteed for injury right now, bringing his injury security over $193M. Another $25M of his 2028 salary will become fully guaranteed in March of 2027, putting the early vested guarantee number at a staggering $218.7M. Herbert becomes the only NFL player not named Deshaun Watson to secure a practical guarantee north of $200M. NFL GUARANTEE RANKINGS

The Practical Contract

While the early vesting guarantees make this a 6 year, $245M contract fairly comfortably, logical tells us that the deal probably gets ripped up after 5 years, $193.7M. The 6th (2028) season currently carries a cup hit north of $71M, and that's before any type of cap conversion in years prior. Herbert will be 30 years old after the 2027 season, with 2 years, $25M fully guaranteed remaining, so it's an ideal time to take on new years, with a truckloaf of new guarantees.

Additionally

On top of this all, Herbert has secured a full no trade clause throughout the entirety of this contract. He also gets the opportunity to add $2.5M annually to the deal: $1.25M for winning a Conference Championship, and another $1.25M for winning a Super Bowl.