The Contract Welker Should Have Signed

Michael GinnittiJuly 17, 2012

While many franchise-tagged players were able to garner long-term contracts out of their respective teams, Wes Welker was unable to do so. In fact, rumors were swirling that discussions barely existed surrounding the opportunity to extend Welker's stay in New England. The Patriots have notoriously let confrontational situations fall by the wayside, and in doing so have made mistakes. But another AFC Championship in 2011 means giving them the benefit of the doubt, even in terms of Welker. The Patriots are simply using the tools that the CBA has allotted them, including the option for a franchise tag. That being said, it only seems fair to assess the current state of Welker, and provide a formulaic prediction for the long-term contract he should have signed this offseason. 

To analyze Welker, we'll compare statistics over his career as a wide receiver (2007-2011) against other receivers of comparable age and quality. We'll start by listing these receivers, their most recently signed contract, and the age they were when signing.

To view the full breakdown and official contract prediction login below. 

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Contract Evaluation: Matt Forte

Michael GinnittiJuly 16, 2012

The Chicago Bears and Matt Forte reached an agreement on a long-term deal just hours leading up to the deadline for franchise-tagged players to do so, coming to terms on a 4 year $32 million extension. The deal replaces a $7.74 million tender previously offered to the star running back. 

Spotrac recently published an analytical prediction for the prospective deal, resulting in a 4 year $31 million estimate that was reduced to 4 years, $26 million due to injury risks, and the recent signing of Michael Bush. 

Read on to see why mathematically this is deal works for both parties, but still leaves itself to a risk for the Bears.  

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The Linsane Value of NBA Point Guards

Michael GinnittiJuly 16, 2012

One of the most daunting tasks for NBA executives over the past few years is the collective balance of positioning a talented point guard who can distribute, shoot, play defense, and whom possesses the athletic ability to take over a game - while keeping the rest of the elite players on the court satisfied. As the 2012 free agency season begins to settle in, the usual spatter of mid-level talent has been distributed throughout the league. But available point guards have not only become coveted, but handled almost in privacy when it comes to signings, rumors, etc.

Read on to see the importance of point guards translated into numbers, and why the breakdown of the Jeremy Lin offer seems just about right... 

Predicting the Ray Rice Contract

Michael GinnittiJuly 13, 2012

One of the most explosive players in the NFL the past few seasons has been the one-man wrecking show that is Ray Rice, running back for the Baltimore Ravens. Like Bears running back Matt Forte, Rice has been franchise tagged by his respective team and in response is seeking a long-term contract. Without diving into the numbers yet, on paper Rice and Forte have similar resumes: Both backs are the clear-cut #1 option in their offense. Both backs start behind quarterbacks with talent, but who haven't reached their elite potential. And both backs are multi-tooled, in that they mean as much to the passing game as they do to the running game. 

The Spotrac team recently analyzed a contract prediction for Forte that brought forth interestingly low numbers. That being said, the Chicago Tribune is reporting that Rice is currently seeking a contract near $10 million per year. 

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Contract Evaluation: NHL Long Term Deals

Michael GinnittiJuly 11, 2012

The Spotrac team looked at all the current contracts that have a length of 10 years or longer (excluding goalies) to determine if players that signed extremely long term deals payoff right away for the teams that sign them. Points per game (PPG) for the season leading into and after the signing were determined. Points per game were the chosen statistic because it normalized each player per year based on the actual number of games played.

Ilya Kovalchuk (NJD) - LW
Signed: 2010
Length: 15 years
Amount: $100 million
20092010% Change
Games Played 76 81  
Points 85 60  
PPG1.120.74-34%

Login to see the rest of the results including 10 more player breakdowns.

NFL Fantasy Value Projections

Michael GinnittiJune 21, 2012

This is an in-depth look at the current and future fantasy value of quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs heading into the 2012 season, using player salaries, and fantasy points acquired during the 2011 season. The result provides projected 2012 Fantasy Value Rankings for these positions..

Free Agent Contracts: Less is More

Michael GinnittiJune 14, 2012

At first glance, the casual baseball fan opening their daily sports section might assume the MLB standings were printed upside down. There's no way perennial payroll powerhouses could be sitting in the basement of their divisions, right? Their seemingly bottomless bank accounts have allowed them to sign premier talent to expensive contracts, basically assuring them success, right? 

Well through Wednesday night, the first quarter of the season has proven to be quite opposite as the top five payrolls in baseball have combined for a record of (107-114). This is hardly impressive considering the group has an average payroll of $166,494,602, but seems even more underwhelming when compared to the $94,525,187 average payroll of the six division leaders. Here's a closer look at the payroll breakdown of each division:

Predicting the Matt Forte Contract

Michael GinnittiJune 12, 2012

The Bears vocal Running Back is demanding a long-term deal to supercede his franchise tag. A string of injuries and the recent signing of Michael Bush may thwart that idea though. Spotrac takes a look at Matt Forte's statistical comparison to running backs notably similar, and uses their recent contract signings to generate a prediction for his upcoming signing.

To find our answers we'll break down the numbers for Rushing Yards per year, Average Yards per Carry, Rushing TD per year, Receiving Yards per year, Average Yards per Reception, Receiving TD per year, and Games Played.

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The Rising Cost of David Wright

Michael GinnittiJune 08, 2012

The Spotrac Research team recently compiled a report combining statistical and contractual data to produce an educated prediction of the contract New York Mets third baseman David Wright should be signing in the near future.

The equation uses two statistics, Batting Average (AVG), and On-Base Slugging (OPS). We located two athletes with averages slightly higher and slightly lower in both cases, then compiled their most recent signed contract information. The following is an in-depth look at the process, variables, and our final prediction.

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Contract Forecast: Josh Hamilton

Michael GinnittiJune 02, 2012

The Spotrac Research team recently compiled a report combining statistical and contractual data to produce an educated prediction of the contract Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton should be signing in the near future.

The equation uses two statistics, Batting Average (AVG), and On-Base Slugging (OPS). We located two athletes with averages slightly higher and slightly lower in both cases, then compiled their most recent signed contract information. The following is an in-depth look at the process, variables, and our final prediction.

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