The Golden State Warriors and the Brooklyn Nets got the 2024-25 trade season off to a running start with a rare December 15th deal. Both sides accomplished goals in the first major deal of the season.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: Dennis Schroder, 2025 Heat second-round pick (if 38-59)

Brooklyn Nets acquire: De’Anthony Melton, Reece Beekman, 2026 Hawks second-round pick, 2028 Hawks second-round pick, 2029 Warriors second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

The Warriors needed more on-ball creation ability. When Stephen Curry sits, everything falls to Draymond Green or inexperienced playmakers to make things happen for the Golden State offense. Adding Schroder should fix that.

Reports are that the Warriors are considering starting Schroder alongside Curry in the backcourt. That’s fine, but the real value of adding Schroder will come in the non-Curry minutes. Now, Steve Kerr can confidently put the ball in a playmaker’s hands for all 48 minutes. That’s should be huge for helping to open up the game for other players. That includes Brandin Podziemski, who has really struggled when tasked with running the offense in his second season.

Salary-wise, this doesn’t change much for Golden State. They went from just over $530,000 from their first-apron hard cap to about $330,000 away from that marker. Both Schroder and Melton are on expiring deals, so there’s no long-term change either. One nice benefit with acquiring Schroder: He has Early Bird rights after this season. That could give the Warriors a decent leg up on re-signing him.

Golden State also gave up Reece Beekman in his deal. Beekman became part of the exclusive club of two-way players to get traded. The Warriors being so tight to the first-apron hard cap means they still can’t fill their 15th standard roster spot, but that has no bearing on filling their open two-way spot. Expect Golden State to sign a replacement for Beekman shortly.

The Warriors are a bit light on second-round picks after this deal. That made it important to get the protected Heat second-rounder in the trade. That’s at least something Golden State can offer up in a future deal.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

This trade was about two things for the Nets. First, they went plus-two in second-round picks. The two Hawks picks (2026 and 2028) and the Warriors pick (2029) are all far enough out that it’s impossible to know where they’ll land. If nothing else, Sean Marks has added to what is becoming a pretty impressive stash of future draft capital.

But mostly, this trade was about moving toward development, or pivoting toward ping pong balls, or straight-up tanking, if you will. The Nets didn’t get better in this trade. Dennis Schroder was arguably the Nets best player this season, especially when you factor in availability. De’Anthony Melton is out for the season. So, not only did Brooklyn not get better, they instead got significantly worse.

And that was the whole idea.

Entering play on December 15, the Nets had the ninth-worst record in the NBA. For a team that reacquired their own 2025 first-round pick ahead of the season, that’s not really where Brooklyn wants to be.

Here’s the good news: Brooklyn is only four losses behind the Jazz and Raptors to fall (jump?) into a top-three pick. Why is that the target range? The top three picks have the flattened odds in the draft lottery. In a loaded draft, the Nets want to have as high of a pick as possible. Getting up to the top-three group would give them the best chance at that.

By moving Schroder now, Marks may not have gotten the absolute most value for the veteran point guard as he may have down the line. It’s possible that by waiting, the Nets could have driven a bidding war for Schroder, especially if teams became desperate for backcourt help.

However, Marks made the right call to make a deal now, even if he might have gotten something a little better down the line. The Nets need to start losing, and start losing at a pretty good clip, right now if they’re going to maximize their lottery odds. By trading Schroder, Brooklyn becomes a worse team, which will increase the chances that they lose more games. Waiting nearly two months to make a deal might have come after a handful more victories than makes sense for the Nets.

On the court, Brooklyn is really light on ballhandling and playmaking. Ben Simmons will likely see increased on-ball reps. That could have a side effect of improving Simmons’ play and his confidence. Beyond Simmons, Shake Milton and Keon Johnson are the only healthy playmakers on the roster right now. Cam Thomas can do some ballhandling, but he’s a score-first guy and he’s working his way back from a hamstring injury.

The above is why the Nets acquired Reece Beekman in the deal. It’s rare for a two-way player to be traded, and even more rare for one to be traded to fill a need, but here we are. Beekman faced an uphill battled to find NBA minutes on a deep Warriors squad. With the Nets thin backcourt, Beekman could be a rotation player right away.

In nine G League games, Beekman has looked pretty solid. The 6-foot-3 point guard has averaged 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 2.8 steals per game. Beekman has also shot 51.5% from the field and 34.5% from behind the arc. As a four-year college starter, Beekman also comes in with more experience than your average rookie guard. Expect to see him getting some rotation minutes as the Nets sort out their backcourt mix.

Salary-wise, there’s no change for Brooklyn beyond this season. Schroder was on an expiring contract, as is Melton. Something to keep an eye on: The Nets can flip Melton in another trade, and by virtue of acquiring him prior to December 16, they can also aggregate Melton’s $12.8 million salary in a subsequent deal.

Sean Marks is just getting started. He’s got several other veteran players who could (and should!) be on the move before the trade deadline. That’ll mean some really ugly basketball in Brooklyn to close this season, but if the Nets land a top-five draft pick, it’ll all have been worth it.

While reports, and denials of some of those reports, are flying all over the place, one thing is clear: Jimmy Butler is no longer a lock to stay with the Miami Heat. After being seen as a perfect match of player and team for several years, it now looks like a Butler-Heat divorce is inevitable.

How did we get here?

It’s been bubbling for a bit now. Butler has been somewhat injury-prone during his run with the Heat. But he was always there when Miami needed him most, leading the team to NBA Finals runs in 2020 and 2023. That was true until Butler missed last season’s playoffs and the Heat were bounced in five mostly non-competitive games against the Boston Celtics.

Following that series loss, Butler said the Celtics would have been “at home” if he had played. Butler also said that if he was on the Philadelphia 76ers, they would have beaten the New York Knicks. Heat president Pat Riley didn’t want to hear it from his star player.

“For him to say that, I thought ‘Is that Jimmy trolling or is that Jimmy serious?’” Riley said in a postseason press conference. “If you're not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut and your criticism of those teams.”

Riley then challenged Butler to figure out what he wants to be for the Heat moving forward, including stating that his star player has to play more. But despite all of that, when pressed if he’d consider trading Butler, Riley kept it simple by saying, “No.”

Flashing forward a bit, Butler has wanted an extension from Miami. He’s recently said that money isn’t the most important thing, but Butler also isn’t likely to take any kind of massive team-friendly discount either. That leaves some room between Butler’s $52.4 million player option for 2025-26 and whatever his starting point would be in an extension.

However, the Heat haven’t been willing to budge much in extension talks. It doesn’t seem to be a case where Miami is lowballing Butler, as much as it seems like there just isn’t anything happen at all.

And that’s landed us here.

Earlier this week, reports broke that Butler would prefer to land with a contender if he’s traded. Two teams on his list, the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, play in Butler’s native Texas. A third team is the Golden State Warriors, who are committed to making the most of whatever Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have left in them over the next few years.

On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the Phoenix Suns are another team that Butler would like to be traded too. That report was denied by Butler’s agent Bernie Lee in a series of social media posts, but that hasn’t kept speculation from running rampant over the day or so.

You have the history. Now, let’s dive into how a Butler trade could come together for each of his reportedly preferred destinations. This is the important part, because putting together a Butler trade isn’t an easy matter.

Let’s first understand Jimmy Butler’s contract. Here’s what it looks like:

• 2024-25: $48,798,677
• 2025-26: $52,413,394 (player option)
• Total: two years, $101,212,071

Next, let’s look at where the Miami Heat sit with the luxury tax and the first and second aprons:

• $13.9 million over the luxury tax
• $9.2 million over the first apron
• $1.6 million under the second apron

It’s also important to note that the Heat are not hard-capped at either the first or second apron. That means Miami can aggregate players in trades, provided the end result sees them staying under the second apron. However, because the Heat are well over the first apron, they can’t take back more salary in a deal than they send out, because that would trigger a first-apron hard cap. These factors are going to be crucial to remember as we piece together possible options.

Got all that? Good! Let’s dive in!

(Note: We’re presenting these mostly as straight-up two-team trades. There are scenarios where involving a third team can make a deal work, but we’re using a standard two-team framework to demonstrate the complexity in a Butler trade. Also: We’re only demonstrating the challenges of matching salary in a Butler deal. We’re not getting into player and draft picks values here.)

Phoenix Suns

We’re starting with the Phoenix Suns idea, because it’s the freshest rumor and simultaneously the most complex and the most simple one to tackle. Phoenix trading for Jimmy Butler is tricky because the Suns are so far over the second apron that they can’t even see it anymore ($31.5 million over). That means, Phoenix can’t take back more salary than they send out (kind of…we’ll get there momentarily!) and Phoenix also can’t aggregate salaries in a trade either.

That means any trade that sends Butler to the Suns has to send Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Kevin Durant back to Miami. There’s simply no other way to make a deal work.

The Suns can’t aggregate salaries in trades, so they have to send one of Beal, Booker or Durant to the Heat. However, each player in that trio makes more money than Butler does. Because the Heat are already over the first apron, they can’t take back even one dollar more than what Butler makes in a straight-up deal. The Suns also can’t take back more salary than they send out, so taking back even a minimum-salary player makes this difficult to work.

So, we’re dead in the water, right? Not so fast, my friend!

In NBA trades, each side is allowed to structure a deal in the way that is most beneficial for them. This can be to create a trade exception, or sometimes simply to make a deal legal. It’s that last part where the Suns and Heat could push a trade through. 

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Bradley Beal
• Phoenix Suns acquire Jimmy Butler, Josh Richardson

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• Butler and Richardson combined make less than Beal, so Miami is clear there.
• Miami would trigger a second-apron hard cap, because they have aggregated players in this deal. The Heat would be roughly $3.3 million under the second apron following the trade. Thankfully, that’s more than enough room to fill out their roster to the required 14 players on standard contracts.
• Phoenix isn’t aggregating in this deal, so there are no concerns there.
• The Suns get around the restriction of taking back more salary than they sent out by breaking this up into two trades on their side.
  • Butler is acquired for Beal. Butler makes less than Beal, so no issue there.
  • Richardson is acquired via the Minimum Exception (which allows for any player signed via the Minimum Exception to be acquired in a trade).

(Note: This trade also works with Alec Burks or Thomas Bryant in place of Richardson, but that leaves the Heat with less space under the second apron to fill out their roster post-trade.)

Now, it’s important to note that Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause. Yes, he was reportedly interested in playing in Miami in the past, but that was with Jimmy Butler, not in replace of him. Maybe Beal would be fine with heading back east, but his no-trade clause complicates things quite a bit. He can scuttle any deal if it doesn’t work for him. Basically: Beal has control here, not the teams.

And, yes, this trade would work if you substituted Kevin Durant or Devin Booker for Beal, but it’s unlikely that the Suns would go in that direction.

One last thing: The Suns (or any team acquiring Butler) could extend Butler after this deal. He’d have to decline his player option for next season, and he’d be limited in years and dollars. Neither of those seem like major stumbling blocks, as longer deals would see Butler bumping up against the Over-38 rule and he’s already on a near-max salary as it is.

Houston Rockets

We’re going to cover the Houston Rockets next, because the path to a Butler trade isn’t that complicated for them mechanics-wise. Houston faces no meaningful apron-related restrictions and can aggregate salaries together. The Rockets have more than enough clearance under the luxury tax and the aprons to take back more salary than they send out without any worries.

Houston is sitting on nearly $41 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (team options and non-guarantees) that they could put into a trade. The Rockets also have a bunch of interesting young players and they have draft assets to put into trade offers too.

Rockets GM Rafael Stone recently reiterated once again that he’s not looking to make a major deal this season. He wants to see what Houston does with this core before committing to adding veterans. We’ll take him at his word…for now. If the cost for Butler comes down enough, or a more appealing veteran star becomes available in the next couple of months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stone change his tune a bit.

And that’s fine! Stone doesn’t need to play his hand yet. He’s got a good thing going and he’s got no reason to mess around today. He’s got roughly two more months of evaluation before the deadline to figure out if the Rockets need to do anything or not.

We’re not going to present a proposed trade here, because the options are so plentiful. Play with Rockets-Heat ideas using our NBA Trade Machine until your heart’s content!

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas faces some issues in a potential Jimmy Butler trade. The Mavericks are hard-capped at the first apron (by virtue of the Klay Thompson sign-and-trade acquisition). In addition, the Mavs are only $386,752 under the first apron. That’s a pretty tight margin to work with.

On the plus side, Dallas doesn’t have any aggregation restrictions. That’s good, because the only way they can make a deal is by stacking together a whole bunch of contracts. We’re assuming Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are off-limits here, because why would you add Butler while moving one of your current stars?

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington
• Dallas Mavericks acquire Jimmy Butler

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Dallas side works, despite the Mavericks taking on more salary than they are sending out by about $600,000. Because P.J. Washington has $500,000 in incentives in his deal, those currently count towards the first apron for the Mavericks. When you send Washington out, those incentives go with him. That creates enough space under the first-apron hard cap to push the trade through.
• However…Dallas would be only $228,917 under the first apron post-trade. And, as you can see, Dallas would have fill three roster spots. That’s not enough space to get back into the roster requirement of having 14 players on standard contracts.

And that’s where we’ll basically cut it off for Dallas. Yes, there are other ways to make a legal trade that also lets the Mavericks fill out their roster, but they all get unlikely, unwieldy or both.

We’ll also add that there’s been some very credible reporting out of Dallas that the Mavericks aren’t ready to take on another near-max veteran with new contracts upcoming for both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the near future. Let’s just move along.

Golden State Warriors

We saved the most likely team for last, because they are easily the most complicated situation to figure out.

What makes the Warriors the most likely team to trade for Jimmy Butler? They reportedly want another on-ball creator to ease the burden on Stephen Curry and Draymond Green to key everything for their offense. Golden State is also reportedly ok with adding veterans to match Curry’s and Green’s timeline to make the most of whatever the two veteran stars have left.

What makes this the most complicated situation? Once again, it’s those pesky aprons and hard caps!

The Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron. And they have only $533,659 in wiggle room under that marker. Here’s how tight things are for the Dubs: They can’t even fill their 15th roster spot right now, because they don’t have enough space for even a prorated minimum signing under the first-apron hard cap.

On the Heat side, they aren’t hard-capped, but they are only $1,638,713 under the second apron.

Both sides can aggregate salaries, but these margins are really tight. Like pants the day after Thanksgiving tight.

You put in an extra player on the Miami side, and the deal isn’t legal on the Golden State side. You switch out one player for another on the Warriors side and it isn’t legal on the Heat side.

Because of that, we’re going to add in the Detroit Pistons as a facilitator.

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Andrew Wiggins from Golden State, top-55 protected second-round pick from Detroit
• Golden State Warriors acquire Jimmy Butler
• Detroit Pistons acquire Gary Payton II

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Heat are taking back approximately $2 million less than they are sending out. That gives them the clearance to push the trade through while not tripping over a first-apron hard cap.
• Golden State clears about $7 million in this deal. Given the Warriors need to sign at least three players to get back into roster compliance with 14 players on standard contracts, that’s enough space to make that happen.
• Detroit still has $10 million in cap space. They can easily absorb Gary Payton II’s deal.
• The Pistons also have an open roster spot, which makes taking in Payton no issue.
• Miami would have to waive a player, or they could route one of their other players somewhere else in a deal, before completing this trade.
• Because Miami and Detroit have to connect to satisfy the “touch rules” in a multi-team trade, we have the Pistons sending the Heat a top-55 protected second-round pick to meet that requirement.

Now, we can, and should, argue about the values here. That’s not really what the exercise was about. Yes, maybe the Heat wouldn’t want Andrew Wiggins contract, but there’s no reasonable way to make this trade happen without Wiggins in the deal.

Summary

If Jimmy Butler wants to get to a contender, especially one with hard cap and apron issues, it’s not going to be easy. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they have one of the NBA’s preeminent CBA/salary cap maestros in Andy Elisburg in their front office. If it can be done, Elisburg will find a way to make it happen.

The main point of this exercise was to show that trading Butler to the Suns, Warriors, Mavericks or Rockets (the last one is super simple) isn’t impossible. Unlikely? Maybe. Needs to involve a third team? Possibly. Tricky to make work given trade rules and satisfying value requirements on all side? Absolutely.

But it’s not impossible for Jimmy Butler to get where he wants to go. And NBA history tells us that when a star wants to be somewhere, he more often than not gets to that destination.

RELATED:

NBA Trade Machine

With the NWSL end-of-season roster decisions in the books, there are a number of teams still negotiating with their free agents to keep them with their 2024 teams in the coming year, and now’s the time to take an initial look at the turnover between 2024 and 2025 rosters and some metrics like minutes played, goals, assists, and chances created as well as the breakdown of current rosters by position.

Positional Breakdown

Note: Totals include 2023/2024 SEI’s toward the positional totals for each team. These players are technically non-active players and do not count toward the 26 player roster limit nor the 2025 salary cap until they are medically cleared to play and re-join the active roster. Positions are based on what the team’s put in their announcements.

The first thing that stands out is that a number of teams do not have at least two rostered goalkeepers with the Kansas City Current’s complete lack of signed goalkeeper being the most striking part. San Diego and Seattle both have a singular goalkeeper signed for 2025 while Washington technically has two—although one still has a 2024 SEI designation. 

Teams are pretty consistent in having between five and nine defenders on roster, with the average across the teams being slightly above six. Gotham’s offseason has seen a thinning of their midfield with only three signed for 2025 and San Diego is only slightly better with four midfielders tied down. Even with those numbers, the average across the stack is again slightly above six and maxing out with Utah, Louisville, and Orlando’s having eight midfielders. Forwards have a similar story to the defenders with all the teams being in a pretty even spread between five and eight. 

Minutes Played

Looking at the 25,740 minutes played by each team in the 2024 regular season, above is a function of how much of their total minutes played is rostered for 2025. All four teams who have at least 90% of their minutes returning did make the 2024 playoffs. Of the teams to make it to the semifinals in postseason, Gotham and Kansas City being in the bottom half of the chart is slightly surprising considering teams often try to keep players with substantial minutes year-over-year in order to maximize upon the connections already made.  

Goals

Unsurprisingly, the majority of the NWSL teams who finished above the playoff line— the top eight teams in the table—have players with the most goals scored returning in 2025 with the sole exception of the Chicago Red Stars who are just ninth in this chart. 

After finishing the 2024 NWSL regular season at the bottom of the table and although they currently are second to last in terms of goals returning Houston surprisingly is the fourth team in terms of keeping their 2024 goalscorers rostered for 2025. The retirement of Portland’s Christine Sinclair, the trade of Janine Beckie, and waiving of Izzy D’Aquila accounts for their position near the bottom of this chart. In a similar manner, Orlando’s position here is solely due to Marta being a free agent and not having re-signed yet—negotiations are ongoing. 

Assists

Similar to the Goals Returning table above, the assists returning aligns fairly close to the playoff line with just some differences in the ordering. The top eight here all made the playoffs, the bottom six did not. 

When you look at the percentages as part of each teams’ performance, you can see that the two expansion sides—Utah and Bay FC—both retained 100% of their assist generators alongside Washington and North Carolina. Racing’s position at the bottom of this chart is mostly due to trades during the 2024 regular season versus not re-signing players. 

Chances Created

Chances created are a cumulative total of ‘assists’ and ‘key passes’ where ‘key passes’ are the final pass from a player to their teammate who then makes an attempt on Goal without scoring.

The four teams who made it to the semifinals being in the top five of this table is no surprise as they were also four of the top five teams in terms of overall chances created in 2025—Portland was the other team in the overall chances created total with 293. The expansion teams once again being high on this chart is indicative that they feel confident in the squad’s they put together and to be honest both sides form throughout the season just kept getting better. 

Regarding the Chances Created as a percentage of team total, the top of the chart follows the trend on minutes returning with Washington, Bay, Kansas City, and North Carolina being a close top four and then there being a drop before you hit five through eight. Houston’s rough 2024 has them rounding out the bottom in both the Chances Created charts and that’ll be something for them to focus on adding in the current offseason.

Trade Window

As a reminder, the NWSL trade window will once again open up tomorrow (Friday December 13th) and stay open until it closes for the holiday transaction moratorium December 20th — December 27th. The 92 unsigned free agents are free to sign with their 2024 club or a new club at any time outside of the transaction moratorium. 

Spotrac details the largest free agent signings and contract extensions across MLB throughout the 2025 offseason.


RELATED: MLB Free Agency Tracker

2B Thairo Estrada signed a 1 year, $3.25 million free agent contract in Colorado.

The 28-year-old earned $4.1M last season in San Francisco, but was outrighted and eventually released early this offseason. He’ll now see $2.75M in 2025, with a $750,000 buyout available on an undisclosed 2026 mutual option with the Rockies.

RP Yimi Garcia returned to Toronto on a 2 year, $15 million free agent contract.

The Blue Jays actually traded Garcia to Seattle at this past deadline, securing two minor leaguers in the process. The 34-year-old returns on his biggest contract to date, and projects to be vying for Toronto’s 9th inning role this spring.

SP Nathan Eovaldi returned to Texas on a 3 year, $75 million free agent contract

The 34-year-old declined a $20M player option last month to reenter the open market, but found his way back to the Rangers with a $75M guarantee under his belt. Eovaldi projects to sit atop the Texas rotation as of now, with Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, & Tyler Mahle falling in behind him.

The $75M guarantee ensures that the former 11th round pick will have earned over $185M in his MLB career through 2027.

SP Max Fried joined the Yankees on an 8 year, $218 million free agent contract. 

The 30-year-old has had at least one injured list stint in every season since 2018, including a three week period last year due to forearm irritation. Injury is the major red flag here, but the ceiling still remains sky high, and the Yankees are putting all of their chips in on him, handing Friend the largest total value contract for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history. The contract also contains a full no trade clause throughout its duration.

Current Yankees Starting Rotation

OF Mike Tauchman signed a 1 year, $1.95 million contract with the White Sox.

Tauchman heads to the north side of the city after being non-tendered by the Cubs a few weeks back. The White Sox locked the 34-year-old into the same salary he earned in 2024, though he can increase that by $1M based on TBD incentives, and another $250,000 if he’s traded this season.

Full Mike Tauchman Contract

SP Alex Cobb joined the Tigers on a 1 year, $15 million free agent contract.

Cobb went through three separate stints on the injured list with San Francisco/Cleveland last season, so durability is certainly top of mind for the now 37-year-old. Cobb figures to slot into the middle of the Tigers starting rotation.

The contract can max out at $17M based on Cobb pitching 140, then 150 innings in the upcoming season.

Full Alex Cobb Contract

RP Jordan Romano signed a 1 year, $8.5 million free agent contract with the Phillies

The somewhat surprising non-tender out of Toronto quickly found work in Philly, where he currently slots in as the 9th inning reliever for 2025. The 31-year-old can add another $500,000 to this deal if he works through 60 innings this season.

Full Jordan Romano Contract

RP Blake Treinen returned to the Dodgers on a 2 year, $22 million contract.

Treinen returns to LA, where he played out 2024 on a $1M salary as he worked himself back to full health. The 36-year-old gave the Dodgers 50 appearances last season, performing well enough to garner the biggest contract of his career this winter.

OF Juan Soto signed an historic 15 year, $765 million free agent contract with the New York Mets.

Steve Cohen simply wasn’t going to lose this war, even as 3 other teams dipped their toes into the $700M+ pool. While full terms aren’t yet available, we do know that Soto will receive a record-breaking $75 million signing bonus, a full no trade clause, and the ability to opt-out of the contract after the 2029 season. However, the Mets can void that opt-out by adding $40M to the 10 remaining seasons of the contract ($4M per year).

Unlike many of the blockbuster contracts being signed around the league, none of Juan Soto’s $765 million contract contains deferred compensation, making him a $51M per year player at present day value.

OF Michael Conforto joined the Dodgers on a 1 year, $17 million free agent contract

Injuries continue to devalue Conforto’s overall resume, but the final numbers for 2024 in San Francisco were promising (27 doubles, 20 homers, 66 RBIs, 1.34 WAR). He projects as the Opening Day starting left fielder for LAD as of now, though a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez could very much change that.

An undisclosed portion of Conforto’s $8.5M salary is deferred, while the other half will be paid out to Conforto in the form of a signing bonus.

C Gary Sanchez signed a 1 year, $8.5 million free agent contract with Baltimore.

Sanchez spent twice as many 2024 games as a DH (46) than he did a C (28) while also plugging a hole at 1B every now and then for the Brewers last season. He’ll likely do the same for the Orioles in 2025, giving Adley Rutschman time out of his crouching stance as much as possible, primarily speaking.

OF Tyler O’Neill joined the Orioles on a 3 year, $49.5 million free agent contract

Despite 3 stints in the injured list, O’Neill had one of his best overall seasons to date with Boston in 2024, hitting the open market at a strong selling point. Baltimore bought in, bringing in O’Neill as a likely every day left fielder.

The deal includes $16.5 million in 2025, after which the 29-year-old can opt-out of the remaining 2 years, $33 million. If not, it’s a flat $16.5M each of 2026 & 2027 as well.

Full Tyler O’Neill Contract

SS Willy Adames signed an historic 7 year, $182 million free agent contract with the Giants.

It’s the largest total value contract in San Francisco Giants history, surpassing Buster Posey’s $167M deal by $15M. It’s also a $5M raise over Dansby Swanson’s recent free agent contract with the Cubs (7 years, $177M), a clear focal point for Adames’ final cost.

The 29-year-old will secure a $22M signing bonus this year, and a full no trade clause throughout the life of the contract. Salary-wise the deal comes with $10M each of the next two seasons, then $28M for each of the final five.

Adames previously declined a Qualifying Offer so the Giants will forfeit their 2nd and 5th-round draft selections in 2025.

Full Willy Adames Contract

C Danny Jansen signed a 1 year, $8.5M free agent contract with Tampa Bay.

The 29-year-old backstop will earn an $8M salary in 2025, with a $500,000 buyout available on a $12M club option for 2026.

For now, Jansen projects to be Tampa Bay’s opening day starting catcher, though it’s fair to assume that Ben Rortvedt, who saw action in 112 games for TB last year, will also factor into the position.

Full Danny Jansen Contract

P Clay Holmes joins the Mets on a 3 year, $38 million free agent contract.

The story here isn’t so much the money, but the role that Holmes will be serving in Queens. The 31-year-old has been signed as a back-end of the Mets starting rotation player, making the transition over from a 9th-inning reliever for much of the past three seasons with the Yankees.

Contractually, Holmes will see $13M in 2025, another $13M for 2026, then holds a $12M player option in 2027 (no buyout).

Full Clay Holmes Contract

SP Shane Bieber returns to Cleveland on a 2 year, $26 million free agent contract.

Bieber’s final season before free agency was lost to elbow surgery, and he’s not likely to return to the mound until mid-2025, but the Guardians remain confident that he can anchor this young rotation when the time is right.

The 29-year-old will earn $10M in 2025, then holds a $16M player option for 2026 that includes a $4M buyout. If Bieber returns to top-level form to finish off 2024, he’ll almost certainly opt-out and reenter the open market next winter.

Full Shane Bieber Contract

SP Luis Severino signed a 3 year, $67 million contract with the Athletics

The surprise of the winter, the Athletics handed out the single largest contract in their franchise’s history. Severino leaves the Mets for a $10M signing bonus, $20M salary in 2025, $25M salary in 2026, and a $22M player option in 2027 (no buyout). The 30-year-old can opt-out after 2 years, $55M, and there’s a one-time $500,000 trade assignment bonus attached the contract as well.

Severino previously declined a Qualifying Offer so the Athletics will forfeit their third-round draft selection in 2025.

Full Luis Severino Contract

RP Aroldis Chapman signed a 1 year, $10.75 million contract with the Boston Red Sox.

Chapman gave the Pirates 68 appearances in 2024, finishing 18 games, striking out 98 batters in 61+ innings. He now joins forces with 35-year-old Liam Hendriks in Boston, and could have even more opportunities to close out games in the 2025 season.

The $10.75M guaranteed takes Chapman over $176M earned in 16 MLB seasons.

Full Aroldis Chapman Contract

C Kyle Higashioka signed a 2 year $13.5 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

Texas added depth to their catching room, bringing over the 34-year-old Higashioka from San Diego. He’ll earn $5.75M in 2025, $6.75M in 2026, and at least a $1M buyout on a $7M mutual option for 2027. With starting catcher Jonah Heim slated for an arbitration salary north of $5M, the Rangers will likely enter 2025 with one of the more expensive catching payrolls.

Full Kyle Higashioka Contract

SP Blake Snell signed a 5 year, $182 million free agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The deal includes a $52 million signing bonus and $66M of deferred compensation, lowering the CBT salary from $36.4M, down to $31.7M.

Snell will receive $65M in 2025 (more than double the $32M he earned from his 1 season in San Francisco last year), then $13M in each of 2026-2029. There’s a $10M conditional club option in place for 2030, but that only remains if Snell hasn’t been traded/claimed away from the Dodgers AND if Snell has a 90+ day stint on the injured list for an undisclosed specific injury (likely arm related).

The deferred money kicks in in 2035, paying out Snell $5.5M each year through 2046 (when he’ll be 53 years old).

The $182M total value contract ranks 4th among active starting pitchers, 9th all-time in that regard. Snell’s original $36.4M APY ranks 3rd, behind only Zack Wheeler ($42M), & Jacob deGrom ($37M).

At the time of this piece, the Dodgers current starting rotation now looks like:

UTL Tommy Edman signed a 5 year, $74 million extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers

The NLCS MVP was already under contract at $9.5 million for 2025, so this is technically a 4 year, $64.5 million new money contract. Edman will now see $22 million in 2025 thanks to a $17 million signing bonus & $5 million salary. From there, salaries increase to $12.25 million through 2029, and there’s a $13 million club option available in 2030 ($3 million buyout).

However, the Dodgers have deferred $25 million of salary ($6.25 million from each of 2026-2029) at 10 payments of $2.5 million each from 2035-2044. The move lowers Edman’s tax salary from $14.8 million down to $13.27 million.

In 153 regular season games last season, Edman was used at CF, SS, 3B, & 2B. He projects to be the Opening Day starting center fielder for LAD as of now.

SP Yusei Kikuchi joins the Angels on a 3 year, $63.675 million free agent contract

After a rough 2+ year stretch in Toronto, Kikuchi drastically changed his free agent image with a strong final two months in Houston following a deadline trade to the Astros. The Angels, who have purged a few starting pieces this offseason already, are now paying the 33-year-old as a top of their rotation (possibly even ace) player.

The deal includes a flat $21.225 million per year salary through 2027, with additional service payments for a trainer ($100,000), interpreter ($75,000), & US-Japan airline tickets ($50,000).

At the time of this piece, the Angels current starting rotation now looks like:

SP Frankie Montas joins the Mets on a 2 year, $34 million free agent contract

The 31-year-old starter has bounced around quite a bit over the past 3 seasons, and he declined a $20 million option with Milwaukee to hit the open market again this winter. He joins the Mets on a 2 year, $34 million deal that includes a player option for 2026, giving him the ability to control his destiny again next offseason.

The deal includes $17 million in each of the next two seasons, a slight upgrade from the $16 million he took home in 2024 ($14 million salary + a $2 million buyout on the declined option).

At the time of this piece, the Mets current starting rotation now looks like:

SP Matt Boyd signed a 2 year, $29 million free agent contract with the Chicago Cubs

After missing a year and a half (2023-2024) from Tommy John surgery, Boyd gave the Guardians 8 strong starts down the stretch, putting him in a nice spot to cash in this winter. The Cubs took the bait, handing Boyd a $29 million guarantee that includes a $2 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027.

The 33-year-old will earn $12.5 million this season ($7.5 million salary plus a $5 million signing bonus), $14.5 million in 2026, with a $15 million option for 2027 ($2 million buyout). The compensation is a huge upgrade for Boyd, who was given a league-minimum $740,000 contract from Cleveland as he rehabbed back to full health.

At the time of this piece, the Cubs current starting rotation now looks like:

Spotrac’s annual NFL Roster Bubble report identifies players that have the potential to be released, traded, or retire after the current 2024 season, including notable financial ramifications for each.

RELATED: 2025 Cap Hit Rankings

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QUARTERBACKS

This year's QB bubble list highlights an immovable contract, a few highly-drafted trade candidates, and a few savvy vets that could be passed over for a youth movement in the coming months.

RUNNING BACKS

As running back salaries have plummeted, the annual bubble list for these players has shrunk, as teams are more than happy to keep these players at veritable values. The following list outlines a free agent bust or two, a potential high-profile trade candidate, and more than a few role players headed toward the chopping block next spring.

Wide Receivers

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last six seasons, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

• January 14, 2024: Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala traded from Washington Wizards to the Detroit Pistons for Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
• December 30, 2023: RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley traded from the New York Knicks to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
• January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
• January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
• January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
• December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
• December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the result of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

One potential reason, beyond history, to watch for an early trade is the benefit of being an early mover. The new CBA has made it harder to make deals with hard-caps and more ways than ever to trigger them. Waiting until trade deadline week (or even deadline day) to make a major move might be hard to make happen.

Because of that, you might see sellers looking to make moves before the buyer market dries up as a result of various restrictions and tight margins around the tax and the aprons. You could also see buyers make a move early to remove the chance that things get too complicated to pull off a move closer to the February 6th deadline. In addition, the 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded and teams are going to want to put themselves in position to land as high of a pick as possible.

This year, we’ve going to present the list in terms of teams to watch as early movers: either as buyers or sellers. There’s clearly some benefit to getting things done early. We’ll break down why we are focused on these teams as the ones to make an early trade.

Sellers

Brooklyn Nets

Players to watch: The entire roster

No snark intended here. The entire Brooklyn Nets roster is available in trade talks. The Nets don’t have a franchise player Thus, they haven’t made anyone untouchable. That’s the smart approach for Brooklyn.

Why might the Nets move early? They’ve already won at a better clip than ever expected. They didn’t trade to get their draft pick back to finish in the middle of the lottery. (Yes, we know ownership and Sean Marks have both said differently, but we aren’t buying it.) Expect them to pivot towards ping pong balls sooner rather than later.

In any trades they make, the Nets will be looking for a combination of young players, draft picks and salary relief. The Nets currently project to have over $40 million in cap space this summer, but that figure could easily grow to well over $60 million if Marks gets off some future salary.

One counterproposal: This doesn’t look like a quick turnaround for Brooklyn. If they can increase their return in trades by taking on some bad long-term salary, that’s worth considering. There aren’t any splashy, quick-fix free agents that will take the team from rebuilding to contender in the span of one offseason. Eating a little money to improve the young players or draft picks they get for their veterans isn’t a bad idea.

Chicago Bulls

Players to watch: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic

In reality, no one should be off limits for the Chicago Bulls. However, outside of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, there are reasons others won’t be very involved in trade talks. Some are young and part of what Chicago is building (Matas Buzelis, Coby White, Patrick Williams), while others are coming off injuries or are veterans that won’t bring much in return (Lonzo Ball, Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig).

And let’s not pretend trading LaVine or Vucevic is a simple thing either. LaVine is coming off an injury while carrying a huge contract. Vucevic is an aging big man who doesn’t offer much defensively. But both have been outstanding offensively this year and that’s rebuilt their trade value.

LaVine looks healthy again. He’s been quick and explosive. The veteran guard is turning in one of his best all-around offensive seasons. Yes, his contract is large ($138 million through 2026-27), but LaVine is proving to be worth it. It’s unlikely that a better offensive player will be available at this deadline.

As for Vucevic, he’s having a career-year on offense. The veteran center is shooting 58.7% from the field. That would shatter his career-best mark by over six percentage points. In addition, Vucevic is hitting 47.4% of his three-pointers. Again, easily a career-best mark.

Sure, there’s going to be some drop-off coming. Vucevic is unlikely to maintain such a torrid pace. But there’s not going to be a better offensive center (and he still rebounds at a pretty good clip too) available this trade season than Vucevic.

Despite history to the contrary, the Bulls could be an early mover to accelerate moving towards a better draft pick. Chicago owes a top-10 protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs. They don’t want to be anywhere near that cutoff line come lottery time.

New Orleans Pelicans

Players to watch: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson

To be fair, Brandon Ingram has been on trade watch since last summer. We’re still here. The difference now is that Ingram recently changed agents and that’s usually done to spark movement on an extension or a trade.

Here’s the challenge: Ingram just suffered a pretty severe ankle injury. He’s expected to miss multiple weeks. That could slow things down as far as his trade market goes.

To continue to be fair, it’s probably not really likely that C.J. McCollum gets traded, and even less likely Zion Williamson does. But talks now could set the stage for a summer move. If New Orleans resets around a core of Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones and draft picks, they could move the others to hasten that reset, including whoever they get with a likely high draft pick.

It’s that likelihood of a top pick that means the Pelicans could be an early mover. They’re going to want to stay inside the top few picks in the lottery, both to help their odds and to guard against slipping down if others jump up.

New Orleans has said they want to get a look at the roster when healthy, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen this season. Because of that, look here for a big move or two before the deadline.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players to watch: Jerami Grant, Duop Reath, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III

The Portland Trail Blazers are probably closer to the Brooklyn Nets in terms of no one being off limits than they’d like to admit. Sure, it’d cost a decent amount to get Shaedon Sharpe or Donovan Clingan (and less to get Scoot Henderson), but neither of those guys screams untouchable franchise guy.

That being said, Portland isn’t going to trade the kids they’ve drafted in the last few years. The vets? Keep a moving company on retainer for the next couple of months.

The Trail Blazers don’t want to miss out on adding a top tier player in the 2025 NBA Draft. So, they need to get to losing. Right now, Portland is seventh in the lottery. That’s not nearly bad enough to guarantee one of the best five or six players in this draft class.

How do you move down? By trading away the vets that are keeping you competitive. Jerami Grant has the long contract, but the size of any single season isn’t overly daunting anymore, not with the cap growth that is projected. Anfernee Simons has a very tradable deal and teams are always looking for backcourt scoring and shooting. Robert Williams III has a great contract, if a team can convince themselves he’ll stay healthy.

Deandre Ayton could be movable, as he’s only got a year left. If there’s a team that is just missing a center from making a playoff run, they could convince themselves to go for Ayton for a two-year look. Matisse Thybulle is kind of in the Williams camp. He’s a great defender and an improved shooter, but he’s battling an injury.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Jonas Valanciunas

Basically, if you weren’t selected in the last two drafts, the Wizards will probably trade you. And that’s fine. This team is just starting the full rebuild process, even openly saying they are still in teardown mode.

Washington is already bad. Like, worst in the NBA by a wide margin bad. Why would they be an early mover? Simply to not miss out on the market. If buyers make moves early, options for Washington to trade their vets could dry up. That would be a major missed opportunity.

Expect lots of interest to come in Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas. All three vets fill holes teams are always looking to plug at the trade deadline. And all three have reasonable, tradable contracts.

Jordan Poole is more of a wild-card. His contract doesn’t look as onerous anymore, because Poole has played quite well this season. This one might be more of an offseason move, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if a team felt like Poole could help them and made a move for him now.

Buyers

Denver Nuggets

Needs: Shooting, bench depth

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a ton to work with trade-wise. They’re over the first apron, so taking back more money than they send out isn’t possible. They do have enough wiggle room under the second apron that they can combine some salary. That’s good news, as Denver can get to about $14.7 million without touching any core rotation players.

That should be enough to get Denver in the mix for some decent upgrades for their bench. This team desperately needs more shooting. They could also simply use more depth across the board. The Nuggets might also move early just so they don’t miss out. Their apron window is tight enough that they need to strike when they can.

Golden State Warriors

Needs: Star power, playmaking

Steve Kerr leaned on his depth early on to propel the Golden State Warriors to a terrific start. Now, that’s started to flip a bit. The Warriors don’t have much star power behind Stephen Curry and they severely lack in on-ball playmaker. In addition, there’s started to be some grumbling about the expanded rotation and inconsistent roles.

The Warriors scream consolidation trade. The margins are extremely tight for Mike Dunleavy Jr. to work around though. Golden State is hard-capped at the first apron and currently have just over $500,000 to work with in space. So, making a big move is tricky, but not impossible.

Mostly, for the Warriors to land a star, they’re likely going to have to put Jonathan Kuminga and/or draft picks on the table in a deal. That’s in addition to probably having to move Andrew Wiggins to match salary.

If it’s a blockbuster trade or a smaller deal to consolidate, while adding depth, expect Golden State to trade De’Anthony Melton. Yes, that’s a little harsh as he’s out for the season, but it’s really just math. Melton’s $12.8 million salary will go a long way towards salary-matching. And because he’s on an expiring deal, the Warriors could re-sign him next summer as a free agent, even if they trade him away now.

Houston Rockets

Needs: Shooting, playmaking

The Houston Rockets are kind of a tricky one. They’re still growing with their young core. They definitely need more shooting, and could use more playmaking, but they won’t want to do that at the expense of their developing players. They’ve said as much repeatedly.

In some ways, Houston is more likely to stand pat at the deadline. Then they can survey where things land, figure out what they need after a postseason run, and make their big move this coming summer.

But if Jimmy Butler really wants to play in Houston, as per reports… Or Kevin Durant surprisingly becomes available… Or (insert veteran star here) is put on the market…

Any of those probably change the calculus for the Rockets. Houston can get to over $40 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (options or non-guarantees) tradable salary without touching a single core rotation player. Rafael Stone also has some extra draft picks to move, including ones from the Suns and the Nets.

All of the above means that if a star is available, and the Rockets want to be involved in trading for that star, they can be. That makes them a team to watch now, closer to the deadline or next offseason.

Los Angeles Lakers

Needs: Depth, scoring, playmaking, perimeter defense

Nothing has really gone right for the Los Angeles Lakers this season, outside of Dalton Knecht showing he slipped too far in the draft. When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, sitting in the middle isn’t acceptable. That means a shakeup is probably coming.

The Lakers struggles as a decidedly average team with little upside, combined with overflowing frustration around transaction inaction, means we’re on the clock for James to suggest a move or two is necessary. And we’re using “suggest” to be nice instead of calling it a demand, which is what it will really be.

The Lakers have the same tight margins as many others, despite not yet triggering a hard cap at either apron. But being well over the first apron, and barely below the second apron, means that Rob Pelinka is going to have to be careful with any moves he makes.

Despite that, Los Angeles has tradable salaries. The only really off-limits players will probably be James, Davis and possibly Knecht (less so for the rookie, but they aren’t just tossing him in deals either). D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, any of the minimum players and, yes, the once-untouchable Austin Reaves could all be moved.

For the Lakers, the reason to make an early move is simple: They need to climb the standings. The last two years have seen Los Angeles have to push really hard for postseason positioning, and that’s resulted in still having to work through the Play-In Tournament. If they want to avoid that this year, stacking wins sooner rather than later is important.

Orlando Magic

Needs: Shooting, playmaking, wing depth

The Orlando Magic have stayed remarkably solid since losing Paolo Banchero. But with Franz Wagner now down with the same injury as Banchero suffered, we’re approaching “three darts is too much” territory for Orlando.

That’s why the Magic are potentially a team to watch to make an early move. This team is good. They’ll be really good when they get Banchero and Wagner back, and that will happen as neither is out for the season. The defense will keep Orlando afloat for the next few weeks, but they could use more offensive punch.

Orlando has all of their own first- and second-round picks, an extra first-round pick (from Denver) and a couple of extra second-round picks. The Magic roster is also pretty well-stocked with talent, meaning rostering a whole bunch more young players might not be possible over the next few years.

In addition, Jeff Weltman can put together some packages featuring solid veterans, youngsters with upside and draft picks. That should have the Magic in position to make a move if they find one.

Here’s the challenge: Orlando has been active at the deadline in the past, but it’s generally been with smaller moves, especially after they held a fire sale in 2021.

The counter: None of the Magic teams since then have been as good as this one is. This Magic team can make a real playoff run. They need to bolster the offense around Banchero and Wagner to do that. By making an early move, Orlando could stabilize the offense until the stars return, while setting themselves up even better in the long-term.

Bonus Player to Watch

Jimmy Butler

News broke on Tuesday that the Miami Heat are open to listening to offers for Jimmy Butler. That’s not all that surprising, given Butler and the Heat have seemed to be moving in different directions since last summer. Pat Riley was critical of Butler during the offseason, while Butler was scarcely moved in his extension desires.

Is a trade coming here? Butler makes $48.8 million this season. That’s a very big number to move in-season. But it’s not impossible. For example. Houston could get there relatively easily (Miami would need to waive a bunch of players or re-route them elsewhere because it would be an imbalanced trade roster-wise). The Warriors are reportedly star-hunting, have liked Butler in the past and could put together some contracts to make a run at the veteran wing.

A player of Butler’s status appearing on the trade market juices things. Also, acquiring someone like Butler takes a bit of time to gel. That could mean we see him on the move sooner rather than later this trade season. Think of this like the OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam moves last year. Big trades that came together earlier than expected, but helped to kickstart the Raptors rebuild, while pushing the Knicks and Pacers playoff runs.

It happened. After months of rumors stating that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen wouldn’t be underbid for prize free agent OF Juan Soto - rumor became reality on Sunday night.

The New York Mets and Juan Soto agreed to an historic 15 year, $765 million free agent contract that includes no deferred money, a $75M signing bonus, $15M of available escalators (TBD), and a player opt-out after the 2029 season that can be voided with an additional $40M guarantee. In other words - this is a $765M contract today, but could finish off as an $820M deal before it’s all said and done.

The Total Value

Soto’s $765 million base value guarantee is the largest in MLB history, surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s blockbuster contract with the Dodgers last winter. The previous high mark came from Mike Trout’s $426.5M extension in Los Angeles of Anaheim.

However, Ohtani’s deal in LA contains significant deferrals ($680M), lowering the present day value of the contract down to $460M (though it should be noted here that the player will still be earning all $700M). In this sense, Soto’s deal in Queens obliterates every one contract in MLB history.

Largest Total Value Contracts in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $765M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $700M
3. Mike Trout, $426.5M
4. Mookie Betts, $365M
5. Aaron Judge, $360M

Complete MLB Contract Rankings

For the record, Soto’s 15 year, $765M contract is also the longest contract in MLB history, surpassing Fernando Tatis Jr.s’ 14 year contract in San Diego.

The Original Offer

Juab Soto was an international signing by the Washington Nationals back in 2015 to the tune of a $1.5M bonus. He would help take the Nats to a World Series Championship in 2019, prompting the organization to eventually lay down a $440M contract extension offer to Soto & agent Scott Boras. The deal would buy out the rest of Soto’s arbitration years at $54M, with 13 years, $386M built into the free agency portion of the contract.

Soto’s new deal with the Mets nearly doubles that output.

The Average/CBT Salary

From an average per year standpoint, Soto’s $51M to be earned trails only Ohtani’s $70M, who of course won’t be actually earning $70M per year at any point in time due to the 10-year deferral package.

Highest APY in MLB History
1. Shohei Ohtani, $70M*
2. Juan Soto, $51M
T3. Max Scherzer, $43.3M
T3. Justin Verlander, $43.3M
5. Zack Wheeler, $42M

*deferrals

Complete Contract APY Rankings

From a collective balance tax salary perspective, things end up a little bit different. As noted above, Ohtani’s deferrals lower his present day value, and subsequent tax salary, down from $700M/$70M to $460.08M/$46.08M. With no deferred compensation built into the Soto deal, his $51M now rises to the top of the list - by nearly $5M.

Highest CBT Salary in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $51M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $46.08M
3. Zack Wheeler, $42M
4. Aaron Judge, $40M
5. Jacob deGrom, $37M

Complete Tax Salary Rankings

Soto’s $51M salary represents 21.1.% of the $241M MLB threshold for 2025.

The Opt-Out

Following the 2029 season (when Soto will have just turned 30-years-old), Juan Soto will have the ability to opt-out of the remaining 10 years, $460M.

The team will then have the ability to void that opt-out with an additional $40M guarantee ($4M added to each of the remaining 10 seasons). The Yankees had a similar setup with SP Gerit Cole, but the two sides decided to void the opt-out this past winter and focus on a new, tbd contract instead.

The Signing Bonus

Soto’s $75M signing bonus is by far the largest in league history, surpassing Mookie Betts’ $65M bonus in LA. The payout will help Soto from an income tax purpose in the state of NY, and it front-loads a total of $295M into the first 5 seasons of this contract.

Largest MLB Signing Bonuses
1. Juan Soto, $75M
2. Mookie Betts, $65M
3. Blake Snell, $52M
T4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $50M
T4. Max Scherzer, $50M

Career Earnings

At the surface, adding $765M to Soto's previously earned $82.3M brings his career number over $847M. But that's likely only the start of this story, right? It seems hard to imagine that the opt-out/buyback in 2030 will happen, adding another $40M to Soto's bottom line. Now we're approaching $888M, and there appear to be incentives/escalators available that can get us into the $900M conversation before it's all said and done.

The only person even in this same stratosphere is of course Ohtani, who will have cashed in over $742M in his career once the deferrals are all paid out.

Final Thoughts

We’ll save our complete concluding thoughts until the full salary/escalator breakdown becomes available, but for now this is simply a wow. The bidding for Soto was large, historic, and surprisingly out loud. Numbers that were being floated around by league reporters wound up being 100% factual, with at least 4 teams willing to go into the $700M pool at one point in time.

The Mets - as was always the assumed case - simply came in with a final offer that couldn’t be matched, and the additional $40M opt-out void had to be the icing on the cake. Will this be the nail in the coffin to the next 2 decades of Mets offseason spending? Owner Steve Cohen’s pockets are deep enough to suggest no. After a botched first spending experience in 2022, this was always going to be the next big splash in Queens. If anything, the need to continue spending and bring a championship back to Flushing is now higher than ever, as this contract will be annually scrutinized if the success on the field doesn’t add up.

More to come as new details are confirmed.

After the first 29 players to sign in 2025 free agency all re-signed with their current club, former Gotham midfielder Delanie Sheehan broke the pattern yesterday when it was announced that she was signing with the Houston Dash. A few hours later Angel City defender Madison Curry joined Sheehan signing with the Seattle Reign. 

With the season only ending on November 23rd and being followed immediately by Thanksgiving week, it’s not really a surprise that this week marked the beginning of players announcing new locations for their 2025 seasons. 

Looking forward, next week the currently open trade window will close and followed by the End-of-Season decision sheets being turned into the league. Under the new CBA, any old contract which had a semi-guaranteed status versus guaranteed will now become guaranteed for 2025 starting in December versus under the old CBA they only became guaranteed at the Roster Freeze toward the end of the season. 

The remaining 2024 NWSL Calendar

Free Agency Over the Years

2022-23: 

Requirement: Six years of service for player to be unrestricted free agent

45 Unrestricted Free Agents

2023-24: 

Requirement: Five years of service for player to quality for unrestricted free agency, three years of service for a player to quality for restricted free agency

55 Unrestricted Free Agents and 20 Unrestricted Free Agents

2024-25: 

NEW CBA — Any player with a contract ending is a free agent

132 Unrestricted Free Agents

As you can see, thus far this free agency period there have already been more players who re-signed with their current team than any previous year. It will be interesting to see how the different buckets continue to fluctuate over the coming months, especially with the ending of the NWSL Draft and collegiate athletes being able to sign with teams at any time. 

2025 NWSL Rosters

When looking at the remaining free agents, it is also important to keep in mind that every NWSL team has a limited number of active roster spots available for the 2025 season, 26. The table below shows how many active players a team has signed as well as any 2023 or 2024 SEI’s/D45’s which are under contract for 2025 and have the opportunity to join the active roster in the upcoming season. 

The other thing to keep in mind for the offseason roster moves is that this is the first offseason where teams are fully able to utilize the expanded international roster spots. A week before the 2024 season kicked off, the NWSL announced that it would be expanding the available international spots for the rest of 2024 and moving forward. 

You can read more about the expansion to seven spots here or check out your team’s current players occupying spots here

15 Players to Watch

Christen Press, forward, Angel City

Midge Purce, forward, Gotham FC

Maitane Lopez, defender, Gotham FC

Amanda West, forward, Houston Dash

Kristen Hamilton, forward, Kansas City Current

Elizabeth Ball, defender, Kansas City Current

Nichelle Prince, forward, Kansas City Current 

Kerolin, forward, North Carolina Courage

Narumi Miura, midfielder, North Carolina Courage

Marta, forward, Orlando Pride

Becky Sauerbrunn, defender, Portland Thorns

Elli Pikkujamsa, defender, Racing Louisville

Danielle Colaprico, midfielder, San Diego Wave

Hannah Betfort, forward, Utah Royals

As a reminder, you can check the status of your favorite team’s 2025 rosters here or follow along with 2025 Free Agency at Spotrac’s tracker here. A comprehensive list of all offseason moves can also be found here.

NFL MVP Conversation

QB Josh Allen, -230
RB Saquon Barkley, +500
QB Lamar Jackson, +1100
QB Jared Goff, +1100
QB Patrick Mahomes, +1500

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Bills QB Josh Allen still holds a commanding grip on the MVP, an honor that would bag him an additional $1.5M this season. An upcoming game against Jared Goff and the Lions could be a very big step forward or backward in this race.

RB Saquon Barkley is on pace to approach Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing yard figure, and if he gets there - could really contend for this honor, despite not being a quarterback.

Lamar Jackson (and the Ravens) suffered a demoralizing loss to Philadelphia this weekend, seemingly dialing back whatever hype or momentum surrounding the Baltimore franchise until further notice.

Philly’s refusal to go away should keep Goff & the Lions motivated all the way through Week 18, but it won’t be an easy run for Detroit: Green Bay, Buffalo, @ Chicago, @ San Francisco, Minnesota.

Mahomes doesn’t have the surface stats to belong in this conversation, but his efficiency and timely clutch performances along with a sparkling 11-1 record keep him relevant (for now). 

Kirk Cousins’ Downslide

Despite losing three straight, the Falcons still find themselves atop a miserable NFC South. In those three losses, QB Kirk Cousins has posted a 61 Passer Rating, throwing for 0 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The fanbase is now on high alert, especially with newly drafted Michael Penix, Jr. awkwardly waiting in the wings.

Contractually speaking, Cousins $27.5M salary for 2025 is already fully guaranteed. A $10M roster bonus for 2026 will become fully guaranteed on March 16th. An outright release next March means $65M of dead cap. A trade next March means $37.5M of dead cap (though Cousins holds a full no trade clause). At this point, the contract is still telling us that Cousins likely remains with Atlanta through 2025, but patience may prove to be impossible soon.

Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 Finale

After months of intense rehab to repair an achilles injury, RB Christian McCaffrey’s return to the field appears to be short-lived, after a PCL injury against Buffalo likely has him sidelined for the remainder of 2024.

McCaffrey signed a renegotiated contract with the 49ers this past June that put him under contract through the 2027 season, including $8.5M guaranteed through 2025. Assuming a return to full health, the 28 ½ year old should be back to collect another $16.2M total next season, raising his career earnings to nearly $98M.

Trevor Lawrence Torpedoed

Following one of the dirtier plays in years, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence sustained a serious head/brain injury that will likely end his 2024 campaign, furthering the concern for Jacksonville’s clear roster deficiencies this offseason.

Lawrence is finishing out Year 1 of a 7 year, $306.3M contract that includes $202M of practical guarantees through 2028. His team-friendly $17M cap figure for 2025 should aid in the continued build-up of the roster, though this weekend’s injury will be something to monitor for the remainder of his career.

Taysom Hill’s Tenure in New Orleans

Despite a plethora of passing-oriented incentives built into his contract, Taysom Hill never developed into an NFL-worthy QB. That didn’t stop him from becoming one of the most impactful Saints players over the past 5 years, as a tight end, rusher, & special teamer.

A serious knee injury this weekend almost certainly ends his 2024 campaign, but will it also bring his tenure in New Orleans to a close as well? The 34-year-old  has 1 year, $10M (non-guaranteed) remaining on his contract.

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad
Get everything you want, lose what you had
Down here in New Orleans

Those are lyrics from “Down In New Orleans” as sung by Dr. John. And they pretty well sum up the history of the New Orleans Pelicans.

You had the high of the team relocating from Charlotte. Then Hurricane Katrina forced the team away for a couple of years.

Anthony Davis came in the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery and brought the Pelicans a playoff series win with a monster first-round upset in 2018. Then things fell apart and Davis forced a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers just one year later.

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery delivered generational prospect Zion Williamson to ostensibly replace Davis as the franchise player. Moments of pure magic have been surrounded by Williamson being out of the lineup for long stretches.

Now, the Pelicans are facing a series of difficult decisions down in New Orleans.

Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, C.J. McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado.

Even with nary a center in that group, that’s a pretty good eight-man rotation.

The Pelicans have played exactly zero games with that group together. In fact, it’s been so bad, that the most minutes played by any even three-man combination of that top-eight is 87 by Ingram, Jones and McCollum.

Injuries have destroyed this team. New Orleans is 4-13 as of this writing. That’s last in the Western Conference and only slightly ahead of the Washington Wizards and Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record overall.

Essentially, after the Murray trade, it felt like the Pelicans had everything you want (minus a good, experience starting center). But as the song tells us, New Orleans can make you happy or make you real sad.

Right now, things are real sad for the Pels.

But the NBA season doesn’t stop in late-November, no matter how bad things get. There are still 65 games left as of this writing. And trade season is only a few weeks away from opening up.

Maybe those 65 games won’t really end up mattering all that much for wins, because the Pelicans are already five games out of the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. But trade season is where we could get some of that good New Orleans magic.

In an ideal world, the Pelicans would move Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum in deals that return younger players and draft assets. Sadly, we don’t live in an ideal world.

Let’s start with Ingram. New Orleans tried to move him over the summer. Nothing happened, because other teams have the same consternation about Ingram that the Pels do: He wants a max or near-max deal, and he’s not really at that level. One All-Star appearance and a bunch of injury-impacted seasons can’t get you another max deal.

Those contract desires have kept Ingram from extending with the Pelicans. And any acquiring team would have the same issues, plus whatever they had to give up in a trade to get Ingram. That’s why the veteran forward is still in New Orleans.

Ingram is having a nice season. His efficiency is a bit down, but that’s because there have been a lot of nights where his available teammates have consisted of two-way players and G League callups. Most encouraging? Ingram has been the lone Pelican to stay healthy this season. 

Ingram makes $36 million this season. That’s a big number, but it doesn’t tip into the $40-to-$50-plus million range where it gets really hard to move in-season.

The good news for New Orleans, and a potential Ingram trade, is that teams get increasingly desperate as the trade deadline closes in. Someone is going to look at Ingram and decide that they can get a scoring/playmaking wing, and that they’ll worry about the next contract later. At that point, it’s up to the Pelicans to establish a price. It’s not quite a “take whatever you can get” situation, but given Ingram’s future with the team seems to be pretty murky, a younger player and/or a draft pick or two should be enough.

McCollum is a different story. His first two seasons with the Pelicans have been better than he often gets credit for. McCollum has been efficient as a shooter and playmaker, and he does a nice job playing off-ball in an offense keyed by Ingram and Zion Williamson. There isn’t a lot of defense there, but McCollum is smart enough to be an ok help defender and director, when he’s not left exposed in pure isolation situations.

That all sounds good, right? Then you look at the contract. McCollum is on the books for $33.3 million this season and $30.6 million next season. That’s not great for an offense-first guard who is 33 years old.

Still, guard help is always in demand around the deadline. The return for McCollum won’t be as good as it will be for Ingram. However, if New Orleans can take back a swap of not-great money that maybe runs a year longer, they could extract a pick or promising young player from a guard-needy team.

But those deals aren’t the needle-movers. Not in the biggest way. To do that, the Pelicans have to consider what was once thought unthinkable.

It’s time to consider trading Zion Williamson. If not a trade, then it’s worth a quiet conversation about getting out of his contract after the season.

Yes, you read that correctly. Here’s why:

• 24 games

• 61 games

• 0 games

• 29 games

• 70 games

• 6 games

Those are the games played for Zion Williamson in his six-year career. That’s a total of 190 games played out of 407 possible games over six seasons. That’s 46.7% availability. In addition, Williamson has played in zero of the Pelicans 10 playoff games since he’s been in the NBA.

When healthy, Williamson is a dynamic offensive force. He’s nearly undeniable going to the rim. He shoots just well enough from the outside that teams can’t sag off him. When they do, Williamson is quick and explosive enough to still finish over a dropped defender. He’s also a very good and, importantly, very willing passer.

The rebounding has never been quite what we hoped it would be. That’s a problem. The defense is also lacking. There are still some crazy turnovers mixed in there too.

But, honestly, none of those negatives really matter all that much. It’s about the availability, or lack thereof.

Williamson is owed the following on his deal:

• 2024-25: $36.7 million ($18.4 million guaranteed until league-wide date of January 7)

• 2025-26: $39.4 million ($7.8 million guaranteed (assuming Williamson met weight clauses), with guarantees escalating based on games played in 2024-25)

• 2026-27: $42.2 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2025-26)

• 2027-28: $44.9 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2026-27)

That’s a lot to take in. But to make it really simple: The Pelicans can get out of Williamson’s contract after this season with somewhere between zero and $7.8 million owed to him, if he can’t get on the court for 35 of the 65 games New Orleans has left this season. Given Williamson is shelved indefinitely with a hamstring strain, hitting that games-played trigger seems unlikely.

So…do you look at trading your franchise player? Or do you simply waive him and hit the summer with somewhere between $25 million and $30 million in cap space to work with next offseason?

Simply waiving Williamson has to be somewhere close to 99% off the table. While the idea of wiping that contract off the books entirely has to have some appeal, it seems like a fairly “last resort” type of approach.

Trading Williamson? That’s not as crazy as it once seemed.

NBA teams are generally run by folks with big egos. They all believe a player who didn’t fit on one team will fit on their team. And they all believe that they can be the ones to crack the code on keeping an injury-prone player on the floor. When that player is as talented as Zion Williamson is, that belief and the willingness to take a risk is multiplied by a great margin.

If the Pelicans put Williamson on the trade block, they’re going to get offers. It may not be the four-picks and multiple-swaps blockbusters we’ve seen in the past, but New Orleans would net a healthy return for Williamson.

Trading a guy who you built this whole iteration of your team around is a very hard pill to swallow. But when that guy has played in less than half of your games over a six-year period, you have to consider taking a gulp of whatever liquid you have handy and you pop that pill.

There's been trials and tribulations
You know I've had my share
But I've climbed the mountain, I've crossed the river
And I'm almost there, I'm almost there, I'm almost there

Anika Noni Rose sung those lyrics as Princess Tiana in The Princess and the Frog. They also apply to the New Orleans Pelicans.

We’re not addressing any ideas of trading anyone like Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins or Jose Alvarado. New Orleans just traded for Murray and just re-signed Murphy. Jones has one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league. Hawkins is still on his rookie scale deal and Alvarado’s contract is so small, there’s no reason to not keep him.

It’s really the trio of Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum and Zion Williamson who you have to consider moving. The real question: Should you do it?

Ingram is probably the easiest one. Assuming you aren’t just giving him away, and the Pelicans won’t have to do that, they should move him. Unless he comes way down in his ask for his next contract, there’s no real reason Ingram should finish the season on this team.

McCollum should be moved, if you can net a positive return. That might come by taking on some onerous longer-term money, but that’s not the end of the world. If you have to pay to get off McCollum’s deal, you don’t make a deal. In that case, the Pelicans need to keep him and ride it out until he’s on an expiring contract next season.

Williamson is by far the hardest decision. Like the song Down In New Orleans says:

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad

The Williamson magic is so very good. It makes you so very happy. But when he misses so many games, that’s so very bad and makes you real sad.

As painful as it is, the Pelicans have to consider moving Williamson. Let another team be swayed by the potential you see in the games that he does play. If the right deal comes along, it’s time for New Orleans to move along.

But what are they moving to? The 2025 NBA Draft is a good start. New Orleans has all of their own draft picks, including in this loaded 2025 NBA Draft. They’ve already had Lady Luck smile upon them twice in the lottery in the past. A third time would mean bringing Cooper Flagg to New Orleans.

But even if the ping pong balls don’t bounce their way, the Pelicans have already been bad enough that they could end up with Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, V.J. Edgecombe, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore or another potential franchise guy, should one emerge. The 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded with top-end talent.

It wasn’t how anyone planned for it to go. The Pelicans were supposed to be good. But they aren’t. Injuries have left them a mess. Even as some players have started to return to the lineup, the hole might be too deep. Sure, it’s worth giving this group another few weeks to see if they can spark a turnaround. But the Western Conference is unforgiving. It might be too late in New Orleans.

By having the courage to take some more lumps, New Orleans can put themselves on a path to be better than ever. It wasn’t really by choice, but the path to where we are has already been walked. We do get to choose how we move forward. And it’s time for Pelicans to choose to walk a new path.

There’s been trials and tribulations, but the New Orleans Pelicans are almost there. Like Tiana sang to us: People down there might think you’re crazy, but you can’t care. You can’t take the easy way. You gotta make it happen. You’re almost there.