Our first annual NFL Movement Series continues with the Running Backs, highlighting every move - every team - has made at the position since the beginning of the new league year.

RB1 Movement
9 starting RB1s from the 2022 season are now either available free agents, or on a new team for the 2023 season (Singletary, Montgomery, Elliott, Swift, Cook, Harris, Sanders, Penny, Fournette).

Only 4 running backs (all depth role players) were extended prior to the start of the league year (JaMycal Hasty, Ameer Abdullah, Salvon Ahmed, & Jonathan Williams). The four contracts combine for $1.25M guaranteed.

Five free agent running backs currently project to start for their respective team this season (Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Alexander Mattison, Raheem Mostert, D'Onta Foreman), while 1 more (Bijan Robinson) will slot in as Atlanta's RB1 as the most recent #8 overall pick this year. The Eagles acquired D'Andre Swift from the Lions to lead their running back room this fall.

Elsewhere, three running backs were offered the $10.091M franchise tag this spring (Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, & Saquon Barkley). Of them, only Pollard has signed the tag at the time of this piece.

Cap Conversions
Four running backs had their contracts adjusted this spring for cap purposes. Gus Edwards, Alvin Kamara, & Christian McCaffrey all processed simple restructures, while Aaron Jones actually accepted a $5M cash pay cut to remain in Green Bay this season.

The RB Market
For the fourth straight offseason, no running back has been able to eclipse Christian McCaffrey's $16.015M average annual salary. The largest average salary contract signed by a running back in 2023 (franchise tags notwithstanding) went to Miles Sanders at $6.35M per year, nearly $10M less than the top of the market. In terms of guarantee, the 2023 breadwinner was Bijan Robinson's rookie contract, which guarantees him $22M over the next 4 seasons in Atlanta. From a veteran standpoint, Miles Sanders' $13M takes the cake, $25M less than McCaffrey's top figure. 

Free Agency Recap
28 running backs have signed free agent contracts thus far this offseason, combining for $121M of total value, with $54M (45%) of it guaranteed at signing.

Draft Recap
18 running backs were selected in the 2023 draft, including 7 in the Top 90 selections. Of the 23 running backs selected in 2022, 6 are already RB1s for their respective franchises, while at least three others have already proved to be valuable resources.

Related
2023 Free Agent Running Back Signings
2023 Running Back Contract Extensions
Top Running Back Financials

TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS

Arizona Cardinals

• Signed Corey Clement ($0 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Emari Demercado (TCU) to compete for a reserve role

Atlanta Falcons

• Drafted Bijan Robinson (#8 overall) for a starting role
• Added UDFA Carlos Washington Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana) to compete for a reserve role

Baltimore Ravens

• Converted $2.3M of Gus Edwards’ 2023 salary into signing bonus, clearing $2.8M of cap
• Signed Justice Hill ($1.25M guaranteed) for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Keaton Mitchell (East Carolina) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Owen Wright (Monmouth) to compete for a reserve role

Buffalo Bills

• Signed Damien Harris ($1M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Signed Latavius Murray ($802,500 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Jordan Mims (Fresno State) to compete for a reserve role

Carolina Panthers

• Signed Spencer Brown to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Miles Sanders ($13M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Added UDFA Cam Peoples (Appalachian State) to compete for a reserve role
• Claimed Tiyon Evans

Chicago Bears

• Signed Travis Homer ($1.75M guaranteed) for a reserve role
• Signed D'Onta Foreman ($1M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Drafted Roschon Johnson (Round 4) to compete for a reserve role

Cincinnati Bengals

• Signed Trayveon Williams ($52,500 guaranteed) for a reserve role
• Drafted Chase Brown (Round 6) to compete for a starting role
• Added UDFA Jacob Saylors (East Tennessee State) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Calvin Tyler Jr. (Utah State) to compete for a reserve role

Cleveland Browns

• Signed John Kelly to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Nate McCrary to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Hassan Hall (Georgia Tech) to compete for a reserve role

Dallas Cowboys

• Assigned starting RB Tony Pollard a $10M franchise tag
• Released Ezekiel Elliott with a Post 6/1 Designation, clearing $10.9M of cap
• Signed Ronald Jones II ($302,500 guaranteed) to compete for a starting role
• Signed Rico Dowdle ($100,000 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Drafted Deuce Vaughn (Round 6) to compete for a reserve role 

Denver Broncos

• Released starting RB Chase Edmonds, clearing $5.92M of cap
• Signed Samaje Perine ($3M guaranteed) to compete for a starting role
• Signed Tony Jones to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Jaleel McLaughlin (Youngstown State) to compete for a reserve role

Detroit Lions

• Signed Jermar Jefferson to compete for a reserve role
• Signed David Montgomery ($8.75M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Signed Craig Reynolds to compete for a reserve role
• Drafted Jahmyr Gibbs (#12 overall) for a starting role
• Traded starting RB D'Andre Swift to Philadelphia, clearing $1.77M of cap
• Added UDFA Mohamed Ibrahim (Minnesota) to compete for a reserve role

Green Bay Packers

• Signed Tyler Goodson to compete for a reserve role
• Starting RB Aaron Jones accepted a $5M pay cut for 2023, while also converting $8.52M of salary & roster bonus into signing bonus, clearing $11.816M of cap
• Drafted Lew Nichols III (Round 7) to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Emanuel Wilson to compete for a reserve role 

Houston Texans

• Signed Gerrid Doaks
• Signed Mike Boone ($300,000 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Devin Singletary ($2.5M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Added UDFA Xazavian Valladay (Arizona State) to compete for a reserve role

Indianapolis Colts

• Drafted Evan Hull (Round 5) to compete for a reserve role 

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Signed Qadree Ollison to compete for a reserve role 
• Signed JaMycal Hasty ($300,000 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Signed D’Ernest Johnson ($50,000 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Drafted Tank Bigsby (Round 3) for a starting role

Kansas City Chiefs

• Signed La'Mical Perine to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Jerick McKinnon ($1M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Declined a $5.4M 5th-year option for Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Added UDFA Deneric Prince (Tulsa) to compete for a reserve role

Las Vegas Raiders

• Signed Austin Walter
• Assigned starter Josh Jacobs a $10M franchise tag
• Signed Ameer Abdullah ($500,000 guaranteed) to compete for a starting role

Los Angeles Chargers

• Signed Larry Rountree III to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Elijah Dotson (Northern Colorado) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Tyler Hoosman (North Dakota) to compete for a reserve role

Los Angeles Rams

• Drafted Zach Evans (Round 6) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Tiyon Evans (Louisville) to compete for a reserve role

Miami Dolphins

• Extended Salvon Ahmed ($300,000 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Re-signed Jeff Wilson ($2.6M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Re-signed Raheem Mostert ($2.2M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Re-signed Myles Gaskin to compete for a reserve role
• Drafted Devon Achane (Round 3) to compete for a starting role
• Added UDFA Chris Brooks (BYU) to compete for a reserve role

Minnesota Vikings

• Re-signed Alexander Mattison ($6.35M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Drafted DeWayne McBride (Round 7) to compete for a reserve role
• Released Dalvin Cook, clearing $9M of cap

New England Patriots

• Signed J.J. Taylor to compete for a reserve role
• Signed James Robinson ($0 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role

New Orleans Saints

• Converted $8.32M of Alvin Kamara’s 2023 salary plus a $1M roster bonus into signing bonus, clearing $7.4M of cap
• Signed Jamaal Williams ($8.15M guaranteed) for a starting role
• Drafted Kendre Miller (Round 3) to compete for a starting role
• Added UDFA SaRodorick Thompson Jr. (Texas Tech) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Ellis Merriweather (Mass) to compete for a reserve role

New York Giants

• Signed Jashaun Corbin to compete for a reserve role
• Assigned starter Saquon Barkley a $10M franchise tag
• Signed Matt Breida ($500,000 guaranteed) to compete for a starting role
• Drafted Eric Gray (Round 5) to compete for a starting role

New York Jets

• Drafted Israel Abanikanda (Round 5) to compete for a starting role
• Added Travis Dye (USC) to compete for a reserve role

Philadelphia Eagles

• Signed Kennedy Brooks to compete for a reserve role
• Re-signed Boston Scott ($1M guaranteed)  to compete for a starting role
• Signed Rashaad Penny ($600,000 guaranteed) to compete for a starting role
• Acquired D'Andre Swift ($0 guaranteed) from Detroit to compete for a starting role

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Signed Jason Huntley to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Anthony McFarland to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Alfonzo Graham to compete for a reserve role

San Francisco 49ers

• Converted $10.72M of Christian McCaffrey’s 2023 salary into signing bonus, clearing $8.576M of cap
• Added UDFA Ronald Awatt (Texas El-Paso) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Khalan Laborn (Marshall)  to compete for a reserve role

Seattle Seahawks

• Drafted Zach Charbonnet (Round 2) to compete for a starting role
• Drafted Kenny McIntosh (Round 7) to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Bryant Koback to compete for a reserve role

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Signed Patrick Laird to compete for a reserve role
• Released Leonard Fournette, clearing $3.4M of cap
• Signed Chase Edmonds  ($152,500 guaranteed) to compete for a starting role 
• Added UDFA Ronnie Brown (Shepherd) to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Sean Tucker (Syracuse) to compete for a reserve role

Tennessee Titans

• Drafted Tyjae Spears (Round 3) to compete for a starting role
• Added UDFA Charles McClelland (Cincinnati) to compete for a reserve role

Washington Commanders

• Re-signed Jonathan Williams ($152,500 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Released J.D. McKissic, clearing $1.23M of cap
• Drafted Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Round 6) to compete for a starting role

Despite back-to-back fairly mediocre seasons, Ed Oliver and the Buffalo Bills agreed to a 4 year, $68M contract extension this week, keeping the 25-year-old defensive tackle under term through the 2027 season. The deal tacks on to a previously exercised $10.753M option salary for 2023, combining to create a 5 year, $78.753M deal in total.

The Average Annual Value

In terms of new money/new years, Oliver’s extension rings in at $17M per year, good enough for 11th among active defensive tackle contracts.

Newly Signed Defensive Tackle AAVs
Jeffery Simmons, TEN, $23.5M
Daron Payne, WSH, $22.5M
Dexter Lawrence, NYG, $21.8M
Javon Hargrave, SF, $21M
Ed Oliver, BUF, $17M
Dalvin Tomlinson, CLE, $14.25M
David Onyemata, ATL, $11.6M

Expected upcoming contracts for Chris Jones, Quinnen Williams, Christin Wilkins, & Derrick Brown could push Oliver’s number out of the Top 15 shortly.

The Guarantee Structure

Oliver bags $24.5M fully guaranteed at signing, nearly $14M more than he was previously set to earn on his 5th-year option. The figure ranks 12th among veteran defensive tackle contracts, while the percentage guaranteed (36.07%) is one of the lowest figures currently on the books (Vita Vea, 20.75%).

The $24.5M derives from a $14.75M signing bonus (11th), his $2M 2023 salary, and $7.75M of 2024 compensation.

Things get better quickly for Oliver though, as another $7M of 2024 salary becomes fully guaranteed on February 12th, one day following the upcoming Super Bowl. Five days into the 2024 league year (March 17th), $8.25M of his 2025 salary fully guarantees.

If he’s on the roster for the 5th league day of 2025, another $5.5M of salary fully locks in, for a total $45.278M practically guaranteed, 6th most among active defensive tackles.

The Cash Flow

Oliver will see $16.778M in the first year of this new contract, which ranks 11th among active defensive tackle contracts, and represents a $6.025M raise from his previous compensation. Oliver’s deal includes $500,000 in attainable incentives for the 2023 season.

The $32.4M set to be earned through 2 years currently ranks 10th, as does the $47.128M of 3-year cash built into the contract. This 3 year payout represents the practical outcome for this contract based on guarantee structure, which calculates to a practical average annual value of $15.7M.

$31.6M of this contract (40%) lives in the final two “fluffy” years of this deal.

The Cap Hits

As with most multi-year extensions, Oliver’s new deal provides the team significant cap savings for the upcoming season. In this case, Buffalo frees up $5.775M of space, lower Oliver’s cap hit from $10.753M down to $4.978M.

2023: $4.978M
2024: $9.25M
2025: $20.75M
2026: $22.375M
2027: $21.4M

With the league salary cap set to increase at an extremely high rate over the next 3 seasons, there’s a very realistic possibility that Buffalo gets through the next 3 seasons without ever having to touch this Oliver contract for cap purposes.

The Potential Out

As stated above, the guarantee structure of this contract makes it a 3 year, $47.128M contract for practical purposes. Oliver will need to be on the roster for the 5th league day of 2026 to lock in any more early money (a $1.25M roster bonus).

Can the Bills get out before 2025? Yes, with a little cash on the side.

If Buffalo is forced to make this a one-and-done deal, releasing him after the 2023 season but before February 12th, they’ll owe him an additional $7.75M cash to do so. The Bills can designate Oliver a Post 6/1 release, carry his $9.25M cap hit through the spring, and split up the $19.55M of dead cap into $10.7M for 2024, $8.85M for 2025. Additionally, the $7.75M cash to be paid out contains offset language, so the Bills would be credited back for any earnings Oliver were to take in from another team in 2024.

If the Bills are forced to release Oliver after the 2024 season it will be a similar conversation, but the total dead cap to be dealt with is $26.475M, which includes $8.25M of guaranteed salary. Furthermore, Buffalo would need to carry a $20.75M cap hit through June 1st to designate him accordingly. Doable, but messy.

Assuming Oliver plays out the next three seasons of this contract, Buffalo will be able to outright release him in March of 2026 with a $12.15M dead cap hit, freeing up $10.2M of space immediately.

Add-Ons

As with all Buffalo contracts these days, Oliver’s contract isn’t as simple as a signing bonus and a biweekly paycheck.

Option Bonus
In addition to a $14.75M signing bonus, Oliver will earn a $12.5M bonus next March, assuming the Bills keep him on the active roster through the 2023-24 Super Bowl.

Per-Game Active Bonus
Starting in 2024 and through the remainder of the contract, Oliver will earn $25,000 every week that he’s on the active roster, for a maximum of $425,000 per year. Any weeks missed in 2023 will represent cap savings for the 2024 season.

Workout Bonus
Oliver will reel in a healthy $500,000 if he participates in the majority of Buffalo’s offseason program. 31 current Bills players have an offseason bonus built into their contract.

Incentives
Oliver’s deal contains $500,000 of incentives in 2023, then $750,000 of incentives each of 2024-2027. The specific details of these incentives have not yet been made available to us yet

Concluding Thoughts

The timing of this contract seems the most debatable part. The outside world (ourselves included) have had Oliver on the trade block for months, with Buffalo even retaining some of his 5th-year option salary to acquire a better draft pick.

The Bills zagged our zig, shelling out an above average, but nowhere near top of the market, contract for their former #9 overall pick.

In the grand scheme of things, this contract offers very little risk. Assuming this is a 3 years and out scenario as we’ve laid out here, Oliver will account for $47.1M of cap and cash through 2026 (including the dead cap to be taken on that year). If the league salary cap soars to at or around $240M in 2024, Oliver will represent less than 4% of that. A franchise tag for Oliver in 2024 would account for around 9% of the league cap.

Best Case Scenario: Buffalo gets the most out of Oliver in 2023, and they have a bonafide center of the defensive line player under term through 2027, at less than $16M per year (half of what the Top DT market will be by then).

Our first annual NFL Movement Series begins with the QB position, highlighting every move - every team - has made at the position since the beginning of the new league year.

QB1 Movement
Thus far, 5 QB1s have been extended (Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith), while two more (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert) are in active negotiations for their next contract.

At least 2 free agents (Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo) will open Week 1 as a starting QB, with two more (Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield) in the fold as well. Three newly drafted QBs (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson) are in the running to open the season as their team's QB1, while Aaron Rodgers is currently the only QB acquired via trade who will take the opening snap in 2023. And of course 1 QB1, Tom Brady, officially (officially) retired.

Based on current projections, 12 NFL teams are set to run a brand new QB1 onto the field this season in comparison to last year Week 1.

Cap Conversions
5 QB1 contracts have had cap conversions processed this offseason, none larger than the $45M salary to bonus transfer that Deshaun Watson received from the Browns (what will become an annual tradition like no other).

The QB Market
Financially speaking the QB market jumped from $50.1M to at least $52M per year (likely more after additional extensions hit the books). Based on an AAV/League Cap comparison, elite QBs are now chiming in at nearly 25%, which means a salary cap jump to $240M next season could equate to $60M per year contracts within the next 12 months. The going guaranteed rate for an elite QB is now approaching $200M from a practical standpoint, $140M fully guaranteed at signing.

Related:
2023 Free Agent Quarterback Signings
2023 Quarterback Contract Extensions

TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS

Arizona Cardinals

• Signed David Blough & Jeff Driskel to minimum salaries to compete for the QB2/QB3 role
• Drafted Clayton Tune (Houston) in the 5th round

Atlanta Falcons

• Signed Taylor Heinicke ($6.32M guaranteed) for the QB2 role 
• Added UDFA Austin Aune (North Texas)

Baltimore Ravens

• Signed QB1 Lamar Jackson to a 5 year, $260M extension ($185M guaranteed)
• Assigned a $2.6M restricted tender to QB2 Tyler Huntley
• Signed journeyman Josh Johnson for the QB3 role
• Added UDFA Nolan Henderson (Delaware)

Buffalo Bills

• Converted $26.4M of Josh Allen’s salary into signing bonus, clearing $21M of cap space
• Signed Kyle Allen ($350,000 guaranteed) to compete for the QB2 role
• Re-signed Matt Barkley ($235,200 guaranteed) to compete for the QB2 role

Carolina Panthers

• Signed Andy Dalton ($8M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Drafted Bryce Young (#1 overall) for the (assumed) QB1 role

Chicago Bears

• Signed Phillip Walker ($2M guaranteed) & Nathan Peterman ($152k guaranteed) to compete for reserve roles
• Added UDFA Tyson Bagent (Shepherd)

Cincinnati Bengals

• Signed Trevor Siemian ($152k guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Added Jake Browning for a potential QB3 role
• Negotiating a multi-year extension with QB1 Joe Burrow

Cleveland Browns

• Converted $44.92M of Deshaun Watson’s 2023 salary into signing bonus, clearing $35.8M of cap
• Signed Joshua Dobbs ($2M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Drafted Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Round 5) to compete for the QB3 role

Dallas Cowboys

• Converted $29.2M of Dak Prescott’s 2023 salary into signing bonus, clearing $22M of cap
• Signed Cooper Rush ($2.75M guaranteed) for the QB2 role

Denver Broncos

• Signed Jarrett Stidham ($5M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Signed Ben DiNucci to compete for the QB3 role

Detroit Lions

• Signed Nate Sudfeld ($1M guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Drafted Hendon Hooker (Round 3) to compete for a reserve role
• Added Adrian Martinez to compete for a reserve role

Green Bay Packers

• Re-signed Danny Etling to compete for a reserve role
• Traded Aaron Rodgers to the Jets
• Signed QB1 Jordan Love to a 1 year, $13.5M extension ($13M guaranteed)
• Drafted Sean Clifford (Round 5) to compete for the QB2 role

Houston Texans

• Signed Case Keenum ($4M guaranteed) for a reserve role
• Drafted C.J. Stroud (#2 overall) for the assumed QB1 role

Indianapolis Colts

• Released Matt Ryan, clearing $17.2M of cap
• Signed Gardner Minshew ($3.5M guaranteed) to compete for the QB1/QB2 role
• Drafted Anthony Richardson (#4 overall) to compete for the QB1/QB2 role
• Released Nick Foles, clearing $2.1M of cap

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Signed Nathan Rourke for a reserve role
• Signed C.J. Beathard ($2M guaranteed) for the QB2 role

Kansas City Chiefs

• Signed Chris Oladokun to compete for a reserve role
• Converted $12M of Patrick Mahomes’ roster bonus into signing bonus, clearing $9.6M of cap
• Signed Blaine Gabbert ($1M guaranteed) for the QB2 role

Las Vegas Raiders

• Released Derek Carr, QB, clearing $29.25M of cap
• Signed Jimmy Garoppolo ($33.75M guaranteed) for the QB1 role
• Signed Brian Hoyer ($4.2M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Drafted Aidan O'Connell (4th round) to compete for a reserve role

Los Angeles Chargers

• Signed Easton Stick to a 1-year extension ($1.15M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Exercised a $29.5M 5th-year option for QB1 Justin Herbert, and are actively negotiating a multi-year extension with him
• Drafted Max Duggan (Round 7) to compete for a reserve role

Los Angeles Rams

• Drafted Stetson Bennett (Round 4) to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Brett Rypien to compete for the QB2 role
• Added UDFA Dresser Winn (Tennessee-Martin) to compete for a reserve role

Miami Dolphins

• Signed Mike White ($4.5M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Exercised a $23.1M 5th-year option for QB1 Tua Tagovailoa
• Added UDFA James Blackman (Arkansas State) to compete for a reserve role

Minnesota Vikings

• Converted Kirk Cousins’ $20M roster bonus into signing bonus, clearing $16M of cap
• Signed Nick Mullens ($1.9M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Drafted Jaren Hall (Round 5) to compete for a reserve role

New England Patriots

• Released QB2 Brian Hoyer, clearing $294k of cap
• Signed Trace McSorley to compete for a reserve role
• Added UDFA Malik Cunningham (Louisville) to compete for a reserve role

New Orleans Saints

• Signed Derek Carr ($70M guaranteed) for the QB1 role
• Re-signed Jameis Winston ($4M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Drafted Jake Haener (Round 4) to compete for a reserve role

New York Giants

• Extended Daniel Jones ($81M guaranteed) for the QB1 role
• Added UDFA Tommy DeVito (Illinois) to compete for a reserve role

New York Jets

• Signed Chris Streveler to compete for a reserve role
• Signed Tim Boyle ($75,000 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role
• Acquired Aaron Rodgers for the QB1 role

Philadelphia Eagles

• Signed Marcus Mariota ($5M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Extended QB1 Jalen Hurts ($179.3M guaranteed)
• Drafted Tanner McKee (Round 6) to compete for a reserve role

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Added UDFA Tanner Morgan (Minnesota) to compete for a reserve role
• Re-signed Mason Rudolph to compete for a reserve role
• Extended QB2 Mitchell Trubisky ($8M guaranteed)

San Francisco 49ers

• Signed Sam Darnold ($3.5M guaranteed) to compete for a QB role
• Signed Brandon Allen ($200,000 guaranteed) to compete for a reserve role

Seattle Seahawks

• Extended QB1 Geno Smith ($27.3M guaranteed)
• Re-signed Drew Lock ($1.75M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Added Holton Ahlers (East Carolina) to compete for a reserve role

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• QB1 Tom Brady retired ($35.104M of dead cap)
• Signed Baker Mayfield ($4M guaranteed) to compete for a QB role
• Signed John Wolford to compete for a QB role

Tennessee Titans

• Drafted Will Levis (Round 2) to compete for the QB2 role

Washington Commanders

• Signed Jake Fromm to compete for a reserve role
• Released QB1 Carson Wentz, clearing $26.1M of cap
• Signed Jacoby Brissett ($7.5M guaranteed) for the QB2 role
• Added UDFA Tim DeMorat (Fordham) to compete for a reserve role

As offseason workouts turn into minicamps for most NFL teams, the conversations financially speaking often turn to extending from within this time of year. We'll take a look at the status, calculated value, and our prediction for each of the 2019 first round picks who are now extension eligible for the first time in their careers.

Disclaimer: For practical purposes, when referencing the current top AAV & Guarantee figures for Quarterbacks & Interior Defensive Linemen, we've excluded Deshaun Watson (*) and Aaron Donald (**) for this exercise.

#1 Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals)

Burrow has done everything he’s been asked to do and then some, including doubling his production as a scrambling/running QB last season.

Calculated Valuation: $53.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*

Prediction: Burrow signs a 6 year, $315M extension (8 years, $350M total), including $200M practically guaranteed.

#2 Chase Young (DE, Commanders)

The Commanders recently declined a $17.45M 5th-year option for Young, making 2023 a contract year for the 24-year-old. He’s seen action in just 12 games over the past two seasons, but a healthy, productive year can certainly change things quickly

Calculated Valuation: $17.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $28M (T. Watt)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $102M (J. Bosa)

Prediction: No extension. Young’s injury history makes an early extension unlikely, but a clean 2023 leads to a franchise tag next February with options to build on from there.

#3 Jeff Okudah (CB, Falcons)

The Lions traded Okudah to Atlanta this spring, after his healthiest and most productive season to date. There’s a world where he hits the ground running for the Falcons, and with free agency in front of him next March, it would be the perfect time for it.

Calculated Valuation: $14.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)

Prediction: No extension. We’re a long way from a multi-year guarantee offer here, but a young and hungry Falcons’ team could be exactly what the doctor ordered to reinvigorate Okudah’s career.

#4 Andrew Thomas (LT, Giants)

The #3 graded offensive tackle for 2022 according to PFF becomes extension eligible at the perfect time. A much improved team, a QB1 with a new contract, and three straight years of exponential improvement on the books. 

Calculated Valuation: $21.4M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $25M (L. Tunsil)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $64M (R. Stanley)

Prediction: Back up the brinks truck. The Giants don’t necessarily have to rush this, as Thomas’ final two rookie contract years currently align with Daniel Jones’ practical guarantees, but locking in a franchise left tackle for the foreseeable future is never bad business. Thomas signs a 4 year, $88M extension ($107M over 6 years) that includes $60M practically guaranteed.

#5 Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Dolphins)

So much focus (rightfully so) has been placed on Tua’s head injury history, but the production he accumulated on the field in 13 games last season (25 TD, 8 INT, 105 Passer Rating) would have warranted a serious conversation about a multi-year extension. It seems logical that Miami will want to see a full, healthy year before they pull that trigger though.

Calculated Valuation: $45M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*

Prediction: No extension (yet). Tua plays out 2023, with a fully guaranteed $23.1M already on the books for 2024, giving Miami time.

#6 Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers)

It’s easy to look at Herbert’s 3-year stat lines and notice a decline in 2022 production. But an elbow injury thwarted his ability to operate as the deadly deep ball passer that he is for much of last season, forcing a shorter, more efficient gameplan. There’s zero reason to wait on this contract (unless you’re waiting for Burrow’s numbers to hit first from Herbert’s standpoint).

Calculated Valuation: $50.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*

Prediction: Herbert locks in a 4 year, $210M extension, including a non-Deshaun record $140M fully guaranteed at signing.

#7 Derrick Brown (DT, Panthers)

Brown really took a big step forward in 2022, especially as it pertains to the run-stuffing game. He’s only amassed 6 sacks in 3 seasons, but he’s developed into a Top 10 interior defensive lineman regardless.

Calculated Valuation: $17.5M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $23.5M (J. Simmons)**
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (C. Jones/D. Lawrence)**

Prediction: No extension (yet). Brown is on his way, and the defensive tackle market has taken off this spring. But the Panthers are close to turning a corner here, and should be in evaluation mode more than extending mode for the next few months. It’s not hard to imagine $50M guaranteed in Browns’ next calendar year though.

#8 Isaiah Simmons (LB/CB, Cardinals)

Arizona declined Simmons’ $12.7M 5th-year option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year for the 24-year-old. He’s a fill up the stat line type player that might have just been drafted into the wrong defense at the wrong time.

Calculated Valuation: $16.5M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)

Prediction: Simmons is traded in the coming weeks, further establishing a massive rebuild on the fly in Arizona.

#9 C.J. Henderson (CB, Panthers)

The Jags traded Henderson to Carolina after just 1, injury-filled season. While he’s shown improvement, he’s nowhere near the level of player Jacksonville thought they were getting at #9.

Calculated Valuation: $8.4M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)

Prediction: No extension. Henderson will play out his 1 year, $3.4M contract and walk into free agency next March.

#10 Jedrick Wills (LT, Browns)

The Browns exercised Wills’ $14.1M 5th-year option for 2024 last month, putting him on track to negotiate an extension over the next calendar year. While he hasn’t risen to elite blindside tackle status, he seems a worthy candidate to stick around for Deshaun Watson’s tenure.

Calculated Valuation: $19M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $25M (L. Tunsil)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $64M (R. Stanley)

Prediction: No extension (yet). The Browns are still trying to fill out their 2023 roster, so adding cap to Year 4 of this rookie deal makes little sense right now. Extending out of his $14M salary next March seems the right approach.

#11 Mekhi Becton (RT, Jets)

After back to back injury-filled seasons, the Jets declined Becton’s $13.5M option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year for the 24 year old. He’ll have a chance to secure his role at right tackle in front of Aaron Rodgers.

Calculated Valuation: $12.9M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (L. Johnson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60.2M (R. Ramczyk)

Prediction: No extension. Right tackles have done extremely well on the open market the past few offseasons, so Becton’s financial career is far from toast, provided he can stay on the field in 2023.

#12 Henry Ruggs (WR, Raiders)

Not active.

#13 Tristan Wirfs (OT, Buccaneers)

After 3 seasons of elite right tackle play, the Bucs will flip Wirfs to the blindside this season, further enhancing his next contract value (assuming he can sustain his level of play on the opposite side of the line).

Calculated Valuation: $24.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $25M (L. Tunsil)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $64M (R. Stanley)

Prediction: Historic. Wirfs signs a 4 year, $102M extension, including $66M practically guaranteed.

#14 Javon Kinlaw (DT, 49ers)

San Francisco declined Kinlaw’s $10.4M option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year for the 25 year old. Javon Hargrave’s splashy free agent signing seems to have written the writing on the wall here.

Calculated Valuation: $5.4M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $23.5M (J. Simmons)**
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (C. Jones/D. Lawrence)**

Prediction: No extension. Kinlaw finds a 2-3 year deal around $7M per year on the open market next season to reestablish himself elsewhere.

#15 Jerry Jeudy (WR, Broncos)

Denver exercised a $12.9M extension for 2024, affording them time to further assess their offense (most notably their QB1). With Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick both under multi-year extensions already, it might be difficult to justify a long-term deal for Jeudy right now, but he just finished his most productive season to date, and could be in for even bigger numbers this upcoming year.

Calculated Valuation: $20.1M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)

Prediction: The Broncos sign Jeudy to a 4 year, $88M extension, including $50M practically guaranteed.

#16 A.J. Terrell (CB, Falcons)

Atlanta exercised Terrell’s $12.3M option for 2024, putting him fully guaranteed at nearly $15M over the next two seasons. He was one of the best coverage defenders in all of football for the 2021 season, but fell back down to earth a bit last year. Atlanta has invested heavily on the defensive side of the ball this spring, and Terrell might bank on that (literally) next March.

Calculated Valuation: $20M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)

Prediction. Not yet. Atlanta needs to see what they have in a lot of areas before committing too much down the line. A lot of smart people believe the Falcons young core will come together quickly, which should mean $50M+ guaranteed for Terrell in the next calendar year.

#17 CeeDee Lamb (WR, Cowboys)

Dallas has their eyes on new deals for CB Diggs, QB Prescott, T Steele, & of course Lamb, who unsurprisingly had a career year in 2022 after Amari Cooper was shipped to Cleveland. It’s not a matter of if here, only when.

Calculated Valuation: $22.5M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)

Prediction: The Cowboys lock in Lamb to a 4 year, $105M extension, including $63M practically guaranteed - making him the highest average paid and guaranteed rookie extended WR in history.

#18 Austin Jackson (RT, Dolphins)

Miami declined Jackson’s $14.1M option for 2024, making this a contract year for the 24 year old. He still projects as the Week 1 starting right tackle for the Dolphins, but added depth on the roster could change that quickly.

Calculated Valuation: $10.6M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (L. Johnson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60.2M (R. Ramczyk)

Prediction: No extension. Miami’s in win-now mode, and they’ll be allocating resources all over the roster to remain that way for as long as possible. Jackson should hit the open market next March.

#19 Damon Arnette (CB)

Not active.

#20 K’Lavon Chaisson (EDGE, Jaguars)

Jacksonville declined a $12.1M option for 2024, and Chaisson’s role has been reduced in each of the past two seasons.

Calculated Valuation: $3M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $28M (T. Watt)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $102M (J. Bosa)

Prediction: Chaisson is traded prior to training camp, as Jacksonville looks to free up a little cap/cash for a few monster deals waiting for them next March.

#21 Jalen Reagor (WR, Vikings)

The Vikings acquired Reagor from Philly last August, but declined his $12.9M option for 2024 after just 8 catches and 4 fumbles last season.

Calculated Valuation: $4.6M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)

Prediction: No extension. Reagor will play out his fully guaranteed $2.4M salary, and may be a trade deadline candidate come Halloween.

#22 Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings)

Kirk Cousins is on an expiring contract, Dalvin Cook may be off the roster by the team you read this, and yet the Vikings’ chance in the NFC North is as good as it’s ever been with Aaron Rodgers out the door. Somebody’s going to give Justin Jefferson an historic contract, but that team might not be Minnesota?

Calculated Valuation: $26.7M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)

Prediction: Kirk Cousins & Justin Jefferson both sign extensions this summer, refortifying the Vikings as annual contenders in the NFC North. In Jefferson’s case, a 4 year, $110M contract with $75M practically guaranteed should get it done.

#23 Kenneth Murray (LB, Chargers)

LA declined Murray’s $11.7M option for 2024, making this upcoming season a contract year, and putting his future with the Chargers very much in question.

Calculated Valuation: $4.3M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)

Prediction: No extension. Murray has a solid 2023 in the middle of a good Chargers defense, and hits the open market looking to establish his value with a T.J. Edwards type deal (3 years, $20M).

#24 Cesar Ruiz (C/G, Saints)

The #24 overall pick never really found his footing through three seasons, despite playing almost every offensive snap over the course of the past two years. He projects to be the Week 1 starting right Guard, so there’s time to build up value as free agency nears.

Calculated Valuation: $10M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.5M (C. Lindstrom)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (Q. Nelson)

Prediction: No extension. The Saints are hoping 2023 4th rounder Nick Saldiveri can slot into this role next season.

#25 Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 49ers)

Aiyuk’s career has been steadily above average, culminating with a career season in 2022 (78 grabs, 1,015 yards, 8 TDs). San Francisco likely makes him get there again before seriously considering a long-term extension.

Calculated Valuation: $18M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $30M (T. Hill)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $75M (C. Kupp)

Prediction: No extension (yet). The 49ers have already fed a lot of mouths, and Nick Bosa’s extension remains a priority this summer. Aiyuk can force this conversation next February with another big year.

#26 Jordan Love (QB, Packers)

Technically he’s already been extended, though the 2 year, $15.8M contract currently on the books in Green Bay actually represents a $6.7M loss of base value from his previous 2023 salary + potential option. For all intents and purposes, this is still a showcase season for Love, with a true multi-year extension negotiation waiting for him in March if he answers the bell.

Calculated Valuation: TBD
Current Position Max AAV: $52M (L. Jackson)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $185M (L. Jackson)*

Prediction: With the restructure in place, we’ll reserve our prediction for after 2023.

#27 Jordyn Brooks (LB, Seahawks)

Seattle declined Brooks’ $12.7M option for 2024, making this a contract year for the 25 year old. He’s a tackle machine, but is currently recovering from a torn ACL, with a timetable to return still unknown. There’s still a very real world where Brooks fully recovers, and is offered a bigtime contract next March.

Calculated Valuation: $13.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)

Prediction: No Extension. Seattle needs to wait out this ACL rehab before considering a long-term future, but Fred Warner’s $19M could be in the cards down the line here.

#28 Patrick Queen (LB, Ravens)

The Ravens declined Queen’s $12.7M option for 2024, but are also publicly stating their hopes of extended the 23 year old. In other words, “we already have this other guy (Roquan Smith), so if you’ll stick around for much less money, we’ll definitely pay you”.

Calculated Valuation: $16.9M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20M (R. Smith)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $60M (R. Smith)

Prediction: Queen sticks around for 2023, but walks into free agency hoping to follow in Tremaine Edmunds’ footsteps. (4 years, $72M, $50M guaranteed).

#29 Isaiah Wilson (T)

Not active.

#30 Noah Igbinoghene (CB, Dolphins)

The Dolphins declined Igbinoghene’s $13.2M 5th-year option, and are poised to run him out fairly deep down the depth chart in 2023. At $2.1M guaranteed, he’s likely worth keeping around, but don’t be surprised if a late round pick trade is processed sometime this summer.

Calculated Valuation: $3.8M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $20.1M (D. Ward)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $71.25M (D. Ward)

Prediction: No extension, fringe trade candidate this summer.

#31 Jeff Gladney (CB)

Deceased.

#32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, Chiefs)

It was a swing and a miss. It happens. Kansas City declined CEH’s $5.4M option for 2024, putting him on a 1 year, $2M guaranteed contract through the end of the upcoming season. There are two teams currently heading into the summer with starting running backs operating under unsigned franchise tags (Raiders, Giants). With either of them offer a late rounder to bring in CEH as insurance?

Calculated Valuation: $3.9M per year
Current Position Max AAV: $16M (C. McCaffrey)
Current Position Max Guarantee: $38.1M (C. McCaffrey)

Prediction: No extension, no trade, CEH is a healthy scratch for half of 2023 and walks into free agency next March.

With most NFL rosters now boasting the maximum 90 players, the time to start considering the road to 53 for 2023, and which players might be "showcasing" themselves for a potential trip to free agency or the trade block next March is here. We've identified a contract from each NFL roster that carries some form of question mark hanging over it.

RELATED:
Active NFL Contracts
2024 NFL Free Agents

	Kyler Murray (QB, 25) Total Contract: 7 years, $265,685,000 Practical Guarantee: $159,797,000 Contract Remaining: 6 years, $235,685,000 Guarantee Remaining: $129,797,000	Murray's injury, combined with a complete overhaul of the front office and coaching staff, appears to have converted the Cardinals into a mini blow-it-up phase - despite $130M of guarantee remaining on their QB1's contract. New GM Monti Ossenfort has plenty of work to do to turn the corner on this blockbuster contract. Murray could have been playing out the 5th year option on his rookie contract in 2023.
	Jonnu Smith (TE, 27) Total Contract: 4 years, $50,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $31,250,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $15,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $8,500,000	The good news for Atlanta? New England paid off the overpay part of this contract across the past two seasons, leaving the Falcons with 1 year, $8.5M contract for practical purposes. He'll pair with TE phenom Kyle Pitts this year for what should be a much improved Atlanta roster.
	Roquan Smith (LB, 26) Total Contract: 5 years, $100,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $60,000,000 Contract Remaining: 5 years, $100,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $60,000,000	After opting against paying C.J. Mosley a top of the market off-ball linebacker contract just a few years back, Baltimore pivoted by acquiring, then extending Roquan Smith this winter. He's an elite player, but this is increasingly become a position that teams aren't choosing to pay top dollar for.
	Von Miller (EDGE, 34) Total Contract: 6 years, $120,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $51,435,000 Contract Remaining: 5 years, $100,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $31,790,000	The breadwinner contract of 2022 free agency, Miller played just 11 weeks for the Bills last season, and his knee injury is expected to sideline him through most of the summer - potentially even longer. The 34-year-old is fully guaranteed through the next year and half, but it's not inconceivable to worry that Miller won't ever return to even above average form from here out.
	Miles Sanders (RB, 26) Total Contract: 4 years, $25,400,000 Practical Guarantee: $13,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $25,400,000 Guarantee Remaining: $13,000,000	Sanders' $25M total value contract is $7M more than any other running back received this past free agent season, while the $13M fully guaranteed sits $2M above these deals (Montgomery, $11M). The 26-year-old should be able to produce at a high level for the next two seasons, and quite frankly, every pending or prospective free agent running back is relying on it.
	Tremaine Edmunds (LB, 25) Total Contract: 4 years, $72,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $50,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $72,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $50,000,000	The Bills knew they were likely going to get outpriced on Edmunds' this free agency, but I'm not sure anyone saw $50M fully guaranteed coming. Age (25) is very much on his side here, as is a Chicago team looking for leadership and a core to build around on the defensive side of the ball. There's reason to believe this will be a great fit for the next 3+ years, but anytime an off-ball linebacker contract like this comes in, there's risk involved.
	La'el Collins (RT, 29) Total Contract: 3 years, $21,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $5,000,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $14,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	Collins latched on last March but suffered a torn ACL and MCL around Christmas, torpedoing any kind of value that the Bengals were hoping to gain out of this contract. With no future guarantee remaining, there's a chance Cincinnati opts to move on once Collins can pass a physical.
	Deshaun Watson (QB, 27) Total Contract: 5 years, $230,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $230,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $184,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $184,000,000	Obviously. The only way this contract even begins to hold up is with a Super Bowl parade in Cleveland, and even that won't soften the anger that 31 other franchises currently have with how last March went down.
	Michael Gallup (WR, 27) Total Contract: 5 years, $57,500,000 Practical Guarantee: $27,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $44,700,000 Guarantee Remaining: $15,000,000	Gallup's return to Dallas on just $27M fully guaranteed was a bit of a shocker, but it's likely the Cowboys had knowledge that he wasn't going to be the same player in return from a torn ACL. Dallas can move off of this 4 year contract after 2023 with no future salary to be paid out.
	Russell Wilson (QB, 34) Total Contract: 7 years, $296,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $161,000,000 Contract Remaining: 6 years, $239,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $104,000,000	Mulligan? Year 1 of the Russ + Broncos experiment included $57M cash, and not a lot of success on the field. Sean Payton is poised to change that over the course of the next three seasons, when Wilson will earn a fully guaranteed $104M.
	Romeo Okwara (DE, 27) Total Contract: 3 years, $37,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $25,000,000 Contract Remaining: 1 year, $2,500,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	The long-time Lion hasn't been able to stay healthy since 2020, sinking any potential value built into the first 2 years, $26M of his most recent extension. Okwara accepted a paycut down to just $2.5M for 2023 in order to stick around, but he'll be headed for free agency next March.
	David Bakhtiari (LT, 31) Total Contract: 5 years, $108,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $61,500,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $38,900,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	Bakhtiari is 2 years removed from being graded one of the best offensive lineman in all of football, so to look at this contract as a failure wouldn't be doing it justice. With that said, he's seen action in only 24 games across the last three seasons, despite earning north of $69M in that period of time. Green Bay converted most of his 2023 salary into signing bonus already, so he'll be on Jordan Love's blindside in 2023, but a $40.4M cap hit in 2024 puts everything in question from here out.
	C.J. Stroud (QB, 21) Total Contract: 4 years, $36,279,243 Practical Guarantee: $36,279,243 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $36,279,243 Guarantee Remaining: $36,279,243	The reality here is that the Texans don't have enough viable multi-year contracts to really do any sort of financial damage this year. Their two largest contracts ($75M for LT Tunsil, $36M for G Mason) were both intelligent deals with the knowledge that a rookie QB1 was about to take over. Stroud won't have to do more than show he can handle the speed of the NFL game in 2023, and if he does - look for Houston to go wild in free agency over the next two seasons.
	Matt Gay (K, 29) Total Contract: 4 years, $22,500,000 Practical Guarantee: $13,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $22,500,000 Guarantee Remaining: $13,000,000	Matt Gay signed a larger free agent contract than every running back not named Miles Sanders this offseason. Indy is carrying a rookie deal QB1, a rookie deal RB1, and a few rookie deal WRs into 2023, so overspending on a proven kicker (93%+ field goals each of the past two seasons) might end up being good business, despite what can be considered an eye-test overpay from the get go.
	Cam Robinson (OT, 27) Total Contract: 3 years, $54,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $33,000,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $35,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	This was supposed to a nice story. Former high draft pick plays out a franchise tag, shows enough to warrant a multi-year extension out of a 2nd franchise tag, and becomes a formidble left tackle for one of the great young QBs in the game for years to come. A Spring PED suspension has derailed that line of thinking, at least temporarily. It also voided the guarantee on his $16M salary for 2023. Robinson will forfeit $933,000 per suspended game this season, and he'll be forced to pay back $277,777 per game missed in earned signing bonus due to the violation.
	Jawaan Taylor (OT, 25) Total Contract: 4 years, $80,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $60,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $80,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $60,000,000	To be frank here, it was extremely difficult to find a contract on this Chiefs roster that "scared us". Winning does a lot for a franchise, but providing leverage to sign fair or under-market contracts is definitely one of the bigger perks. If Taylor signed a 3 year, $60M practical deal with the knowledge that he would be a Right Tackle in KC - then he's done extremely well for himself. But if there's even a chance that after 2023, he converts over to cover Patrick Mahomes' blindside, then this contract will be underserving his role. What a nice problem for the Chiefs to have.
	Chandler Jones (DE, 33) Total Contract: 3 years, $51,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $32,000,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $34,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $16,000,000	The Raiders had a plethora of needs last March, but bookending Maxx Crosby with a 32+ year old edge rusher at $34M guaranteed probably shouldn't have been as high on the list as it appeared to be. Jones had a fine year, just not one that matches the need + the contract. He's fully guaranteed through 2023, with a clear out available thereafter.
	J.C. Jackson (CB, 27) Total Contract: 5 years, $82,500,000 Practical Guarantee: $40,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $54.500,000 Guarantee Remaining: $12,000,000	Always reluctant to question a contract based on injury, but when one of the largest total value free agent contracts of the spring falls flat on its face immediately, it generates cause for concern (Jackson's deal was 2nd only to Von Miller, who also finds himself on this list). As this deal was slightly front-loaded, the Chargers now get Jackson on 2 years, $26M guaranteed through 2025 to try to resurrect his role and stature on LA's defense.
	Joseph Noteboom (OT, 27) Total Contract: 3 years, $40,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $25,000,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $28,500,000 Guarantee Remaining: $13,500,000	Replacing Andrew Whitworth was never going to be easy, and a heck of a lot of things went wrong for the Rams last season, but it doesn't appear as though Noteboom is going to be the long term answer for LAR at left tackle, despite $25M fully guaranteed through 2023. The Rams will have until the 5th league day of 2024 to make a decision on this contract going forward.
	Jason Sanders (K, 27) Total Contract: 6 years, $22,920,000 Practical Guarantee: $7,520,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $15,200,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	The Dolphins have signed and acquired a LOT of contracts over the past two offseasons, so to have their biggest question mark deal come down to the kicking position is a testament to how well the recent rebuild has gone to date. Sanders' FG% has been in the 70s the past two seasons, and with all of the guarantees on this contract now expired, it's safe to say this is a bubble deal going forward.
	Dalvin Cook (RB, 27) Total Contract: 6 years, $64,284,650 Practical Guarantee: $28,125,000 Contract Remaining: 3 years, $37,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $2,000,000	Cook might be released out of this contract by the time you're reading this, but for now, $2M of his $11M compensation in 2023 is fully guaranteed with no future early bonuses or guarantees remaining through 2025. It might be Alexander Mattison time in Minnesota.
	Hunter Henry (TE, 28) Total Contract: 3 years, $37,500,000 Practical Guarantee: $25,000,000 Contract Remaining: 1 year, $10,500,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	After a really strong first campaign in New England for the 2021 season (50 catches, 600 yards, 9 TDs), Henry's production fell off of a cliff in 2022, putting his $10.5M owed for 2023 in question. The Patriots most likely see this out, letting Henry walk back into free agency next March just before he hits age 30.
	Andrus Peat (G, 29) Total Contract: 5 years, $57,500,000 Practical Guarantee: $33,850,000 Contract Remaining: 1 year, $5,500,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	Almost nothing has gone well for Peat within this 5 year contract. So much so, he and the Saints agreed to lop off the final year of the contract, and lower his 2023 compensation down to $5.5M. He'll hit the open market next March outside of a miraculous turn around in front of Derek Carr this season.
	Daniel Jones (QB, 26) Total Contract: 4 years, $160,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $92,000,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $160,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $92,000,000	While things are trending upward for the Giants, there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding both Jones, and the roster as a whole. One thing that's for certain? Daniel Jones will see a minimum of $81M over the next 2 seasons, for better or for worse.
	Laken Tomlinson (G, 31) Total Contract: 3 years, $40,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $23,900,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $26,100,000 Guarantee Remaining: $10,000,000	Year 1 of a 3 year deal in New York didn't go as planned, but with $10M fully guaranteed for 2023, he'll get the opportunity to rebound with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.Tomlinson's cap hit soars to $18.88M in 2024, so it's likely a make or break year.
	Jordan Mailata (LT, 26) Total Contract: 5 years, $69,650,000 Practical Guarantee: $40,850,000 Contract Remaining: 3 years, $50,800,000 Guarantee Remaining: $15,000,000	The Eagles contract to production ratio across the board is nearly flawless right now. Mailata finds himself here due to a slight regression in 2023 after back to back outstanding campaigns. Any sort of bounce back in the upcoming season will more than justify at least two more years on this deal.
	Chris Boswell (K, 32) Total Contract: 5 years, $23,325,000 Practical Guarantee: $12,500,000 Contract Remaining: 4 years, $13,500,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	After three straight seasons with a 90% or better field goal hit rate, Boswell's 2022 figure dropped to under 70%, despite reeling in nearly $10M cash last season. His salaries flatten out from here, including $4M for 2023, and no early guarantees thereafter.
	Trey Lance (QB, 23) Total Contract: 4 years, $34,105,275 Practical Guarantee: $34,105,275 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $9,071,194 Guarantee Remaining: $9,071,194	$9M guaranteed remaining for a potential franchise quarterback isn't usually cause for concern, but with so much uncertainty at the most important position in football, it's hard not put Lance's status in question. If Brock Purdy can regain and hold the starting gig again in 2023, look for Lance to loudly hit the trade block next March, just before his 5th year option decision will need to be made.
	Jamal Adams (S, 27) Total Contract: 5 years, $80,440,000 Practical Guarantee: $38,000,000 Contract Remaining: 3 years, $45,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $2,560,000	Two first round picks, a third round pick, and $39M cash. That's what the Seahawks have given up for 25 Jamal Adams games over the past 3 seasons. Unfortunately his recovery from recent injury currently comes with no timeline for return, so Seattle is at risk of handing out another $11M cash this season with very little production in return. Adams' contract offers a clear out after 2023, with $14.2M of dead cap against a $23.6M cap hit.
	Russell Gage (WR, 27) Total Contract: 3 years, $30,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $20,000,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $17,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $7,000,000	The Buccaneers have trimmed most of their contractual fat this offseason, leaving behind a few potential rebound scenarios (Ryan Jensen, Shaq Barrett). Gage has been productive for the Bucs, but as a clearcut #3 option in the passing game, $20M guaranteed seems more than a team should be willing to bite off.
	Ryan Tannehill (QB, 34) Total Contract: 4 years, $118,000,000 Practical Guarantee: $91,000,000 Contract Remaining: 1 years, $27,000,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	The Titans have used back to back draft classes to try to find Ryan Tannehill's successor, but neither Malik Willis or Will Levis appear ready to take on that role just yet. Tannehill likely plays out the final year of his deal in Tennessee, though a late summer or deadline trade wouldn't be too crazy to imagine either.
	Logan Thomas (TE, 31) Total Contract: 4 years, $26,475,000 Practical Guarantee: $10,300,000 Contract Remaining: 2 years, $13,565,000 Guarantee Remaining: $0	Injury, recovery, & a lack of adequate QB play around him have factored into very little production from 2 years, $13M of Thomas' contract. It appears Washington will give him a 1 year, $7M chance to rebound in 2023, with a very clear out thereafter ($1.75M of 2024 dead cap).

As the calendar flips to June, 5 NFL teams will receive salary cap adjustments thanks to June 1st Designation releases in the past few weeks. Our look at each of the 8 players who were released with this designation, including the dead cap ramifications, and respective cap savings for this and next season.

Related: Understanding NFL Dead Cap & the Post June 1st Designation

Team Cap Savings

Brandon McManus (K, Broncos)

2023 Cap Savings: $3,750,000
2023 Dead Cap: $1,231,250
2024 Cap Savings: $3,950,000
2024 Dead Cap: $1,231,250

McManus’ release was a bit of a surprise, as the Broncos don’t yet have a known replacement at the kicker position for the upcoming season. But with $3.75M to be freed up come June 2nd, business became a priority here. The 31-year-old quickly signed on with the Jaguars to continue his career. UPDATE: The Broncos have signed Elliott Fry to compete for McManus' old gig.

Jadeveon Clowney (DE, Browns)

2023 Cap Savings: $1,165,000
2023 Dead Cap: $1,600,000
2024 Cap Savings: $0
2024 Dead Cap: $4,800,000

Clowney's 1 year deal with Cleveland included 4 voidable years, but the Browns built in a minimum salary for 2023 to allow them the opportunity to split up the $6.4M of dead cap as such. The 30-year-old remains unsigned as the calendar flips to June.

John Johnson (S, Browns)

2023 Cap Savings: $9,750,000
2023 Dead Cap: $3,750,000
2024 Cap Savings: $0
2024 Dead Cap: $8,850,000

Johnson played 31 games for the Browns over the past two seasons amidst a 3 year, $33.75M contract, but still finds himself looking for work in 2023. He earned $24M across 2021-2022 after $4.8M reeled in on his rookie deal with the Rams. Cleveland will free up $9.75M of cap space on June 2nd, taking on $3.75M of dead cap while pushing the remaining $8.85M into the 2024 season.

J.J. Watt (DE, Cardinals)

2023 Cap Savings: $1,165,000
2023 Dead Cap: $2,400,000
2024 Cap Savings: $0
2024 Dead Cap: $4,800,000

While Watt rode off into the sunset months ago, his contract was held in place in order to process his release/retirement after June 1st for salary cap purposes. Arizona built in a minimum base salary to 2023 in order to open up the possibility for a Post 6/1 move, so the Cardinals will free up just $1.165M of space on June 2nd.

Rodney Hudson (C, Cardinals)

2023 Cap Savings: $3,050,000
2023 Dead Cap: $1,760,000
2024 Cap Savings: $0
2024 Dead Cap: $3,520,000

Like Watt, Hudson’s retirement is being processed after June 1st for cap purposes, offering up an additional $3.05M of savings come June 2nd. Hudson & Watt will account for a combined $8.32M of dead cap in 2024.

Chase Roullier (C, Commanders)

2023 Cap Savings: $8,370,000
2023 Dead Cap: $4,050,000
2024 Cap Savings: $10,160,000
2024 Dead Cap: $4,050,000

Back-to-back injury-filled seasons (10 games played across 2021-2022) and a cap figure approaching $12.5M this year forced Washington’s hand here. The 29-year-old earned $23.3M of a possible $42.3M on his extension, and will look to latch on in a depth role somewhere once he returns to full health. The Commanders will open up $8.37M of cap space this year on June 2nd, freeing up another $10.16M in 2024 per this transaction.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Cowboys)

2023 Cap Savings: $10,900,000
2023 Dead Cap: $5,820,000
2024 Savings: $9,180,000
2024 Dead Cap: $6,040,000

Though still a productive back (especially in terms of finding the endzone), Elliott’s contract was always going to be too rich to handle after year 4. The near 28-year-old earned $50.1M of a potential $93M tied to this contract, and remains an available free agent as the offseason flips to June. His release opens up $10.9M of cap space for the Cowboys on June 2nd, with another $9.18M freed up in 2024.

Byron Jones (CB, Dolphins)

2023 Cap Savings: $13,600,000
2023 Dead Cap: $4,751,000
2024 Cap Savings: $8,723,000
2024 Dead Cap: $10,053,000

Jones signed a 5 year, $82.5M contract with the Dolphins in March of 2020, the largest contract of that free agent season. The deal offered $54M in practical guarantee through the 2022 season, putting the 2023 offseason as the first available potential out. An achilles injury buried his 2022 season in Miami, and the recovery process hasn’t shown favorable results, forcing the Dolphins to move on from the 30-year-old this past March. Miami will open up $13.6M of cap space on June 2nd, while also freeing up $8.7M for the 2024 season.

As OTAs begin and 90 man rosters take shape, more than a few notable NFL players still remain unsigned this summer.

QB Carson Wentz

Is he just not accepting his role as a backup yet? A quick scan around the league puts the Packers and Vikings as decent landing spots for Wentz as a QB2, who shouldn’t cost more than $2.5Mish right now. 

HM: Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Foles, MORE

RB Ezekiel Elliott

Despite the negative aura surrounding his contract the past few years - Zeke has been productive, finishing 2022 with 968 YFS and 12 TDs. He’s a step or two behind right now, but the Chargers & Rams seem like easy fits here, with a 1 year, $2M deal + incentives likely in the cards. 

HM: Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, MORE

WR Jarvis Landry

The production has fallen off of a cliff the past two years and a 2022 hamstring injury has him near rock bottom currently, but at just 30 years old, Landry should still be able to help a contender. A platoon role in Minnesota to help replace Adam Thielen’s production seems a good fit, and vet. Minimum contract is about right as well.

HM: Kenny Golladay, Byron Pringle, MORE

TE Anthony Firkser

He’s only a year removed from back to back 30+ catch seasons and just turned 28. It stands to reason there’s production left in the tank in a depth role for 2023, and the
Rams, Saints & Broncos could still add a body here. It’s a vet minimum deal at best.

HM: Cameron Brate, Cethan Carter MORE

OL Ben Jones

The 33 year old center has posted 4 straight 70+ PFF graded seasons in Tennessee. Teams like the Panthers, Texans, Colts, etc who are starting over with a 20 something QB should be all in on a veteran presence like this. 

HM: Taylor Lewan, Gabe Jackson MORE

DL Chris Wormley

He’s been both a run stuffer and an interior line pass rusher in his 6 year career but is recovering from a torn ACL last December. If he can rehab himself to full strength around training camp time, he could be a late summer sleeper addition on the cheap.

HM: Shelby Harris, Justin Ellis, MORE

EDGE Frank Clark

Clark’s free agency has been radio silent to date, which seems strange for a 29 year old edge rusher with 60 career sacks and a ton of postseason experience. It’s possible his asking price remains too high, or that he and the Chiefs have a wink wink deal in the works, but fringe contenders like Seattle, Detroit, and the Jets should be very interested still. 

HM: Leonard Floyd, Yannick Ngakoue, MORE

LB Kyle Van Noy

He’s bounced around a bit of late but still holds value as a depth/platoon player in the middle of a good defense. The Chargers, Steelers, or Patriots should consider his services for the upcoming season, with a 1 year, $2M redo of last year’s contract in mind.

HM: Zach Cunningham, Anthony Barr, MORE

CB Marcus Peters

Walks away from a crowded Ravens’ secondary looking for a fresh fit this summer. Peters is still a near $10M per year player in our system, but he’ll need to accept something around half of that in base value with incentives to build up his pay at this point. The Niners & Seahawks seem likely to have interest here.

HM: William Jackson, Eli Apple, MORE

S John Johnson

He’s just 27 years old and while his tenure in Cleveland wasn’t a match made in heaven, there’s reason to believe the player that turned heads in LA a few years ago can still exist. If he drops down to a minimum price tag, don’t sleep on a team like the Bills coming in late to add depth to the aging Hyde/Poyer duo.

HM: Adrian Amos, LaMarcus Joyner, MORE

S/T Robbie Gould

The 40-year-old has officially been replaced in San Francisco, but would like to continue his illustrious career on a team worth his time. He hit 84% of his field goals, 98% of his PATs a year ago, and seems likely to be reeled in at around the $2M mark this summer - especially as young kickers are evaluated in OTAs.

HM: Mason Crosby, Aaron Brewer MORE

The Arizona Cardinals walked away from the 2023 NFL draft a winner in many books, in large part due to a savvy move back to #6 to pick up an additional 2024 first round pick. With trade rumors still surrounding WR Deandre Hopkins & S Budda Baker, Arizona may not be done acquiring future draft picks, which has led some (many?) to speculate about the long-term future of QB Kyler Murray. We’ll lean into that a little bit here.

Kyler Murray’s Remaining Contract

Murray will be entering Year 2 of this extension in 2023, with 6 years, $235.6M still to go through the 2028 season. He’ll earn $38M for the upcoming campaign, including $2M base salary, & $36M option bonus.

A 2024 Kyler Murray Trade

There are a lot of moving parts on this deal, but on its surface, this is what it would look like to send Kyler Murray out via trade after the 2023 season.

Pre June 1, 2024

DEAD CAP
Cardinals take on $46.221M of dead cap, all in 2024

NEW TEAM ACQUIRES

• $35M of 2024 compensation will already be fully guaranteed
• $30M of 2025 compensation will become fully guaranteed in March of 2024
• $40M of 2026 compensation becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2025
• $19.5M of 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2026.

If we only focus on these early guarantees, a new team would be acquiring Kyler Murray on a 3 year, $114M contract + $19.5M of guaranteed salary in 2027 for practical purposes. Or in other words, if the new team wants to move off of Murray after 2026, they'll owe him a $19.5M cash payment to do so (not unlike what the Colts just did with Matt Ryan).

The only difference with a Post 6/1 trade is that the Cardinals would see their $46.221M of dead cap split into $13M for 2024, & $33.2M for 2025. This wouldn’t be a likely scenario.

Is this Plausible?

Sure. We’ve seen teams take on $40M+ dead cap hits in 2 straight seasons now - so why not make it 3. Arizona will actually be saving $5.6M of cap space with an early trade, as Murray’s cap hit for 2024 currently stands at $51.8M.

The obvious question here is will there actually be a taker? Off the top, these teams could at least be considering a change at the QB positions next March:

• Atlanta: It’s a big year for Ridder to show he can hang at this level.
• Chicago: It’s a big year for Fields to show he can take an improved team up a rung.
• Detroit: If Jared Goff isn’t extended, all options are on the table
• Los Angeles Rams: Stafford is fully guaranteed through 2025 and could be in this trade
• Las Vegas: Garoppolo’s deal is easily a 1-and-done if needed
• Miami: Only if Tua’s injury history continues
• Minnesota: Cousins is on an expiring and the next QB is not yet rostered.
• Pittsburgh: It’s a big year for Pickett to show he can hang at this level.
• San Francisco: Plenty of options but none long-term.
• Seattle: Geno Smith’s deal is easily 1-and-done if needed
• Tampa Bay: It’s more likely they subtract than add, but it’s an option
• Washington: Maybe the leader in the clubhouse.

Is this Likely?

No. A move of this size at a position of this importance should never be considered likely, but if the wheels fall off in 2023 and Arizona truly is in position to select one of the Top 2 QBs out of the 2024 draft, all bets are back on the table.

If it happens, Arizona will have paid Murray $69M across 2022 & 2023. That could have been $35M had he been forced to play out his rookie contract in its entirety (4th year + 5th year option). Will the Cardinals be able to maneuver a trade for a $133M player that has had so many public deterrents? Can they sell the idea that they would have been happy to have Kyler as their QB1 for the long run, but passing up a chance to draft and play one of these 2024 prospects was too unique of an opportunity to miss out on? Or will this be Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns version 2.0?

We finally have the inside details regarding Lamar Jackson’s 5 year, $260M contract with the Baltimore Ravens, and they’re as potent as expected.

Total Contract Value

At $260M (the franchise tag was never signed so it wasn't factored into this new contract in any way), Lamar Jackson's new contract becomes the 2nd largest new money deal in NFL history, behind only Patrick Mahomes' $450M. It surpasses Josh Allen's $258M contract in Buffalo (across 6 new years), and Jalen Hurts' brand new $255M deal in Philly.

Average Salary

At a new money average of $52M per year, Lamar’s contract makes him the highest average paid player in NFL history at the time of signing. He surpasses Jalen Hurts ($51M) who held the belt for 2 ½ weeks, and Aaron Rodgers ($50.2M), who started this whole $50M per year game last March - and could be in a position to retake the lead with his revised contract in New York.

Signing Bonus

An historic $72.5M. Lamar didn’t just top this mountain, he built a new mountain on top of the previous one and planted his flag there. The previous top signing bonuses in NFL history were paid out to Dak Prescott ($66M, 2021), Russell Wilson ($65M, 2019), & Matthew Stafford ($60M, 2022).

Keeping with the Ravens, Lamar’s $72.5M bonus is $32.5M more than the previous high (Joe Flacco, $40M).

Cash Flow

Extremely Aggressive. Lamar bags $80M in 2023, $5M more than any player in history (Prescott $75M), and $47.6M more than he was set to earn on the franchise tag. In fact, it’s $8.72M more than he would have earned with back-to-back franchise tags.

In terms of 2-year cash flow, again, Lamar is way ahead here. The new deal pays out $112.5M through 2024. That’s $17.5M more than 2nd place Dak Prescott ($95M), $23.5M more than 3rd place Matthew Stafford ($89M).

In terms of 3-year cash flow the gap widens even more. Lamar is due $156M through 2025, which is $6M more than the current Aaron Rodgers contract (soon to be ripped up), but a whopping $19M more than the Deshaun Watson contract ($137M). Furthermore, Lamar will see all $156M become fully guaranteed by next March.

Guarantee Structure

Lamar scores $135M fully guaranteed at signing out of the gate, #2 all-time, $11M more than Russell Wilson's $124M in Denver, $25M more than Jalen Hurts' recent upfront guarantee, and over $31M more than Kyler Murray's $103.3M last summer. The $135M is comprised of his massive $72.5M signing bonus, a $7.5M salary for 2023, a $14.25M salary for 2024, a $750,000 workout bonus, a $17.5M option bonus for 2024, & a $22.5M option bonus for 2025.

On the 5th league day of 2024 (next March) another $20.25M becomes fully guaranteed (his entire 2025 base salary). 

In early March 2025 (5th league day), $29M of his 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed, raising the practical guarantee on this deal to $185M. This $185M figure ranks 2nd all-time to Deshaun Watson’s $230M, but is $5.7M more than Jalen Hurts’ recent $179.3M number.

Of note: All $185M of practical guarantee is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing. This is no small bullet point for someone who plays the game the way Lamar Jackson does.

The Salary Cap Flow

Despite a heck of a lot more cash in hand, Lamar Jackson’s salary cap figure for 2023 dropped from $32.4M, to $22M, a savings of $10.4M.

Assuming void years are being used for the triple bonus structure (2023 signing bonus, 2024 option bonus, 2025 option bonus), the 2024 salary cap figure stays relatively tidy at an even $33M. Even the jump up to $43.5M in 2025 shouldn’t be too daunting if we’re assuming the league cap is near $260M at that point in time.

But things get wild in 2026 & 2027, with initial cap hits of $74.5M for each season. February of 2026 will be a very clear line of demarcation for this relationship.

A) It’ll be a great time to start talking about contract #3 as a way to reduce the upcoming cap hits (similar to what Dallas and Dak Prescott are going through)

B) It’ll be a great time to allow Jackson to start feeling out potential trade partners who are willing to rip up the deal and start over, or restructure the $102M of future base salary.

C) It’ll be an unclear long-term future, Baltimore will process a salary conversion on his $51.25M base salary to lower the $74.5M cap hit, and the discussion about moving on after 2026 will become very loud.

The Fluid Dead Cap Breakdown

If you’re looking at the contract right now, you see a doable out after 2025 where the Ravens take on a $57.5M dead cap hit, but free up $17M of salary cap in the process. While that is true right now - that won’t be true come March 2025, when $29M of his 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed. This raises his 2026 dead cap to $86.5M, making it extremely unlikely that the Ravens could outright release him at that point in time. The $74.5M cap figures in 2026 & 2027 are pivotal junctures in this deal, despite the lack of full guarantee built into them. If all is right in the world, Lamar probably gets a new contract prior to the 2026 season, making life easier for both sides. But if there's discontent, dealing with $86.5M of dead cap and back to back $74.5M actual cap hits presents quite the problem for the Ravens.

If the plan is to keep him rostered through 2026, they'll almost certainly need to process a salary conversion on portion of Lamar's $51.25M base salary, which means higher actual and dead cap hits for 2027 & beyond.

Add-Ons

Lamar negotiated both a Full No-Trade Clause & a Full No-Tag Clause into his big extension, meaning he owns the conversation of where he plays next, and he’ll have the ability to walk away after 2027 with no restrictions (and $260M in his pocket).

Concluding Thoughts

This was one of the more anticipated breakdowns in my career covering these contracts - all things considered. It ended up looking, smelling, and feeling like any other top of the market contract, including most of the standard structure practices that the Ravens utilize with all of their multi-year deals.

The cash-flow is ridiculously good. Why? Because Lamar Jackson wasn’t going to go back down after coming this far. The team-friendly cash flow contracts in this league almost always come with a dirt cheap 4th year rookie salary & 5th year option salary still left to be earned. Jalen Hurts turned a $4.3M previous 2023 salary into a $24.3M payout this season, a 5X raise.

The best part about this contract is that it doesn’t go longer than it needed to. By keeping this a true 5 year contract: A) the cash flow is truncated and therefore aggressive B) The backend of this becomes a cap mess that hopefully means another blockbuster deal (Cousins, Prescott, Stafford), C) Even if he plays out this entire deal, he’ll be just under 31 years old.

Until then though, Baltimore has another 3-year window from a salary cap perspective to try to re-engage as legitimate AFC contenders. 

The 5th-Year option deadline has now come and gone, giving us the most declined salaries that the league has ever seen. This can be attributed to a few things: A few unfortunate situations, a few unfortunate injuries, and a CBA change that fully guarantees the salary the instant that the option is exercised.

Exercised Options: 12
Declined Options: 15
Bypassed with Extension: 1
Not Available: 4

Related: Track all 5th-year option decisions

EXERCISED OPTIONS

#1 Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)

2024 Salary: $29,504,000
Burrow’s option exercise was a mere formality as he and the Bengals continue to inch closer to his offseason mega-extension. But the $29.504M will now be factored into his next deal, totaling $35M of salary from this and next season that will be added to his new money contract. With recent paydays for Jalen Hurts & Lamar Jackson, Burrow is now a $53M player in our system.

#4 Andrew Thomas (OT, NYG)

2024 Salary: $14,175,000
Thomas has become one of the best offensive linemen in the game, and it stands to reason that the Giants will lock him up long term before the summer is out. He’s a near $22M per year player in our system to date. With the option exercised, he’s now guaranteed $19.1M over the next two seasons.

#5 Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

2024 Salary: $23,171,000
Despite an unfortunate run of recent head injuries, the Dolphins are standing by their QB, showing enough loyalty to fully guarantee $27.8M across this and next season. If he can stay healthy, there’s no question he should be inline for a near top of the market extension ($45M+ per year).

#6 Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

2024 Salary: $29,504,000
Like Burrow, the Chargers are just buying themselves more time here as they work through negotiations on something much much bigger. In the interim, Herbert is now guaranteed $33.7M across this and next season, and he carries a $50M valuation into May.

#7 Derrick Brown (DT, CAR)

2024 Salary: $11,665,000
The first and one of only two defensive players to have his 5th-year option exercised this offseason, Brown doesn’t have the production to be considered for the deals that Jeffery Simmons or even Daron Payne scored this spring, but Jonathan Allen’s $18M per year could be about right.

#10 Jedrick Wills (OT, CLE)

2024 Salary: $14,175,000
Despite a bit of a step back in play, Wills gets the vote of confidence through the 2024 season, now guaranteed $17.4M across this and next year. D.J. Humphries contractual path could be one to watch here for Wills going forward.

#13 Tristan Wirfs (OT, TB)

2024 Salary: $18,244,000
After 3 seasons at right tackle, Wirfs is expected to move over to the left side for the 2023 campaign. He’s now guaranteed $21M over the next two seasons, carrying a near $25M per year valuation in our system.

#15 Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)

2024 Salary: $12,987,000
Despite trade rumors, the Broncos locked in Jeudy through the 2024 season at what is now $15.5M fully guaranteed. There’s no question that Jeudy hasn’t risen to the level that many thought he could have just yet, but with lots of new in Denver this season, there’s now time to improve upon that.

#16 A.J. Terrell (CB, ATL)

2024: $12,344,000
After an elite 2021 campaign, Terrell fell back down to earth a bit in 2022, but not nearly enough to stop the Falcons from locking him into $14.9M fully guaranteed across the next two seasons. He carries a $20M valuation in our system to date.

#17 CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

2024 Salary: $17,991,000
After a slow start to his career, Lamb has made this decision a complete no-brainer for Dallas of late. He’s now fully guaranteed $20.5M over the next two seasons, but should be staring down a long-term extension at or around $25M per year in the coming weeks.

#22 Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)

2024 Salary: $19,743,000
Jefferson’s answered every bell, and it’s a little strange that we’re hearing zero discussion about a long-term extension in the works, but that’s a when not an if, and it will likely reach historic heights. For now, the #22 overall pick is guaranteed $22.1M across this and next season, with a near $27M valuation under his belt.

#25 Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

2024 Salary: $14,124,000
For the most part, Aiyuk’s first three seasons have been consistently above average, capping off 2022 with his most productive season yet. His option exercise means $16.4M fully guaranteed across this and next season, and the 25 year old holds an $18M valuation for a long term deal in our system.

DECLINED OPTIONS

#2 Chase Young (DE, WAS)

Declined Salary: $17,452,000
Young becomes the first #2 overall pick to have his 5th-year option declined since the Bears said no to QB Mitchell Trubisky in 2020. He’ll play out a fully guaranteed $5.3M salary, with either free agency, or a projected $21M franchise tag in his future.

#8 Isaiah Simmons (LB, ARI)

Declined Salary: $12,722,000
Simmons was drafted to be a versatile defender, and for the most part - he’s been just that. Productivity wise, things have been fairly average, and the Cardinals are in a bit of a valley right now in terms of their team building (especially with new regimes in the front office and on the sideline). It was just better business to say no here right now. A projected $23M franchise tag already seems unlikely as well.

#9 C.J. Henderson (CB, CAR)

Declined Salary: $11,514,000
The Jaguars traded Henderson to the Panthers early in the 2021 season, and he’s been a solid but fairly average player ever since. He projects to fill in a depth role for Carolina on a fully guaranteed $3.4M salary this upcoming season, but free agency is likely thereafter.

#11 Mekhi Becton (OT, NYJ)

Declined Salary: $13,565,000
This is simply a matter of un-availability. Becton has 1 game under his belt in the past two seasons thanks to a surgically repaired knee. He’ll be ready for OTAs this offseason, and still projects as the Week 1 starting Right Tackle, so there’s time for him to resurrect his value and make next March a little more complicated for the Jets. An offensive lineman franchise tag projects to around $21M currently.

#14 Javon Kinlaw (DT, SF)

Declined Salary: $10,455,000
The writing was on the wall with this one when San Fran shocked us all with a massive free agency deal for Javon Hargrave. Factor in 10 games played across the past two seasons and an additional $10.4M guarantee was out of the question. He’ll play out a fully guaranteed $2.7M salary in 2023, with free agency likely thereafter.

#18 Austin Jackson (OT, MIA)

Declined Salary: $14,175,000
Jackson still projects to be Miami’s Week 1 starting right tackle, so it’s not exactly a broken relationship here. But with 3 games played in 2022, the Dolphins are protecting themselves here from overpaying for a player they have aspirations to replace anyway.

#20 K’Lavon Chaisson (OLB, JAX)

Declined Salary: $12,141,000
The production just hasn’t been there, and with only 9 games played in 2022, this wasn’t a difficult option for the Jags. Oh, and his replacement was the #1 overall pick in 2021.

#21 Jalen Reagor (WR, MIN)

Declined Salary: $12,987,000
Reagor was traded to Minnesota before the start of the 2022 regular season. He posted 8 catches for 104 yards in 17 games. He’ll earn $2.4M in 2023, with free agency available thereafter.

#23 Kenneth Murray (LB, LAC)

Declined Salary: $11,727,000
Murray’s playing time was greatly reduced in 2022 (about 20% less than his rookie season), though he still projects to start for the Chargers in 2023. LA will see out his $2.3M salary and play out the options from there.

#24 Cesar Ruiz (G/C, NO)

Declined Salary: $14,175,000
The #24 overall pick never really found his footing through three seasons, despite playing almost every offensive snap over the course of the past two years. He projects to be the Week 1 starting right Guard, so there’s time to build up value as free agency nears.

#27 Jordyn Brooks (LB, SEA)

Declined Salary: $12,722,000
Brooks is the type of player that fills up a stat sheet, passes most of the eye tests, then gets crushed by advanced analytics on a Monday morning. With that said, had he not suffered an ACL injury late in 2022, there’s a very good chance this decline would have been an exercise. Seattle will hedge its bets here, knowing they may need to slap a projected $23M tag on Brooks to keep him off the open market next March.

#28 Patrick Queen (LB, BAL)

Declined Salary: $12,722,000
I guess when you acquire a counterpart ILB and then pay him the largest contract in position history, your chance of getting a guaranteed x10 raise in 2024 is greatly reduced. Queen has already been rumored in trade talks, and a 1 year, $2.2M contract seems like pretty good value for the receiving team here.

#30 Noah Igbinoghene (CB, MIA)

Declined Salary: $13,202,000
The #30 overall pick has 1 career interception in 32 games played (only 16 across the past two seasons). He enters the 2023 offseason as a projected 3rd stringer for the Dolphins, who may just buy out his $2.1M salary to move on this summer.

#32 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

Declined Salary: $5,461,000
You can’t say the Chiefs didn’t try here. CEH was given opportunities all over the field to find a rhythm and pattern in their offense, and it just wasn’t a fit. He’s now slipped to 3rd on the depth chart behind Isiah Pachecho and Jerick McKinnon, so a 1 year, $2M play out with free agency looming in March seems the obvious path here. Not ruling out a trade here either.

BYPASSED WITH EXTENSION

#26 Jordan Love (QB, GB)

Bypassed Salary: $20,272,000
With Aaron Rodgers gone, the decision to exercise or decline Love’s $20M 2024 salary was a hot topic of conversation for weeks. Green Bay chose neither. Love gets a restructured extension that guarantees him $13.5M (most likely all in 2023), offering he and Green Bay a more financially sensible path to see if there’s a long-term fit here through the 2024 season. Based on initial reports, it appears as though Love’s compensation across 2023-2024 can max out at $25M.

UNAVAILABLE

#3 Jeff Okudah (CB, ATL)

Bypassed Salary: $11,514,000
Okudah wasn’t going to see his option exercised no matter how this offseason played out, but that became a non-possibility once he agreed to a restructured contract per his trade to Atlanta. The Lions retained a portion of his 4th year salary, nullifying his ability to remain eligible for a 5th year option. The Falcons now get a 1 year, $3.6M look at him in their revamped defense.

#12 Henry Ruggs (WR)

Waived by the Raiders in November of 2021.

#19 Damon Arnette (CB)

Waived by the Raiders in November of 2021.

#29 Isaiah Wilson (OT)

Waived by the Titans in March of 2021.

#31 Jeff Gladney (CB)

Waived by the Vikings in August of 2021