With all due respect to Agatha Christie, the greatest mystery going right now may involve the NBA and some obscure bookkeeping. No, Steve Ballmer didn’t commit the crime in the Intuit Dome with the Tax Apron. But it doesn’t make the whole sordid mess any easier to untangle that solving the murder in an Agatha Christie novel or a game of Clue.

It’ll be no surprise to anyone that the NBA salary cap and CBA is a complicated thing to figure out. That’s only been made even more complicated by the introduction of the first and second aprons, and all the associated restrictions that come with them.

Further compounding the issues are bonuses. On their face, NBA bonuses are super simple. If a player achieved the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Likely” and added to the player’s cap and tax number for this season. If the player didn’t achieve the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Unlikely”. It is then subtracted from the player’s cap and tax number for this season if it was previously “Likely”, or it is left off of their cap and tax number for this season entirely.

Simple enough right? Not so fast, my friend! Much like Wadsworth would say in the movie version of Clue (an all-time classic everyone should see!), it’s never quite that simple.

When we start figuring out the math for the first and second apron, which function as hard caps (if so triggered), then we have to add in all of the player’s bonuses. Let’s do an example to hopefully make this easier to understand!

• Base Salary: $25,000,000
• Likely Bonuses: $1,000,000
• Unlikely Bonuses: $1,000,000
• Cap/Tax Amount: $26,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses)
• Tax Apron Amount: $27,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses + Unlikely Bonuses)

Simple enough, right? Again: Not so fast, my friend! Well…with a bit less emphasis this time. The math really is that simple. But how it gets applied is far more complicated.

To paraphrase our dear Wadsworth, the answer might be yes or no, but it really depends on the question you are asking.

To go forward, we have to go back. Let’s talk about the luxury tax and the first and second aprons and the hard caps that can be incurred at them. The pertinent figures are:

• Salary Cap: $140,588,000
• Luxury Tax: $170,814,000
• First Apron: $178,132,000
• Second Apron: $188,931,000

As of today, here’s where NBA teams fall within each grouping:

• Under the cap: 1 team
• Over the cap, under the luxury tax: 15 teams
• Over the tax: 5 teams
• Over the first apron: 5 teams
• Over the second apron: 4 teams

So, we’ve got nearly half of the league over the tax, with a third over one apron or the other. And, of those 15 team that are over the cap and under the tax, seven of those teams are within $5 million of being over the tax.

Starting to understand why these various lines matter so much?

Now that we have an idea of where each team sits, let’s talk hard caps. Within the new CBA, there are 10 ways a team can become hard-capped: six at the first apron and four at the second apron.

First Apron Hard Cap Triggers

• Signing a player to a contract via the Non-Taxpayer MLE that is greater than allowable via the Taxpayer MLE (years, salary or both)
• Signing a player to a contract via the Bi-Annual Exception
• Acquiring a player via Sign-and-Trade
• Signing a player after a buyout if that player made more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE that season
• Using more than 100% salary-matching in a trade
• Using a TPE that was created in the prior season

Second Apron Hard Cap Triggers

• Signing a player via the Taxpayer MLE
• Aggregating two or more player salaries in a trade
• Sending out cash in a trade
• Acquiring a player using a TPE that was created in a prior Sign-and-Trade

In addition, if a team isn’t hard-capped but is above the First or Second Apron, they cannot do any of things that would hard cap them at that respective apron.

One last reminder: If you hard-capped, you can’t exceed that hard cap by even $1.

Teams currently hard-capped at the first apron:

• Atlanta Hawks
• Brooklyn Nets
• Chicago Bulls
• Dallas Mavericks
• Golden State Warriors
• Houston Rockets
• LA Clippers
• New Orleans Pelicans
• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Sacramento Kings
• Toronto Raptors
• Washington Wizards

Teams currently hard-capped at the second apron:

• Charlotte Hornets
• Denver Nuggets
• Indiana Pacers
• New York Knicks

Got all that? If not, take some time to read it again. Because we’re about to apply all of this to three real-world, real-time NBA situations.

New York Knicks and the 13th through 15th roster spots

The Knicks are hard-capped at the second apron. New York went to great lengths to make sure that their offseason machinations didn’t trigger a first apron hard cap. Their margins are already tight enough as it is.

Following their offseason moves, the Knicks find themselves with just 12 players on standard contracts. The CBA dictates that teams can only dip below 14 players on standard contracts for 14 days at a time and up to 28 total days per season. As of this writing, New York is roughly $3.6 million below their second apron hard cap.

A non-prorated veteran minimum deal for this season was for $2.1 million. A non-prorated rookie minimum deal is for $1.2 million. As you can see, the Knicks had room to add one veteran minimum signing and one rookie minimum deal. Or they could have done a combination of two or three rookie minimum signings…kind of.

Remember how we said all of this stuff is complicated? Well, here’s another one of those pesky complications!

If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did not retain draft rights for, that player actually counts against the luxury tax and the aprons at the veteran minimum or 2 Years of Service amount. If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did retain draft rights for, that player counts at their actual salary amount.

So, the Knicks can’t just sign any rookie to a rookie minimum deal. That wouldn’t fit under the second apron hard cap, assuming they also sign a player to a veteran minimum.

As of this writing, there is reporting the Knicks plan to sign rookie center Ariel Hukporti to a two-year, minimum contract. Hukporti will hit the cap and tax at his prorated rookie minimum salary of just over $1 million. That’s the accounting , because he was a former Knicks draftee.

(Want some more cap nerdery? If you made it this far, you probably do! Hukporti’s two-year deal will include a team option for the 2025-26 season. That will allow the Knicks to decline that option this offseason, then sign to Hukporti to a longer deal than the two-year amount allowed by using the Minimum Exception.)

Taking it further, New York will likely sign a veteran to a prorated minimum deal too. That should land at about $1.9 million. If both of those signings take place on the last possible day to meet NBA roster requirements, the Knicks should have $580,872 in clearance under the second apron hard cap. That’s not enough to sign anyone else now, but on February 25, when there are 48 days left in the regular season, the Knicks would be able to sign a second prorated veteran minimum contract.

(Should New York make a salary-clearing trade between now and the trade deadline, all of this math changes, potentially to point of not really mattering. The Knicks can also play games with starting the 14-day clock again by waiving a player, but that can get really complicated and isn’t worth diving into now.)

Those are pretty tight margins, but they’re workable. A lot of teams will carry only 14 players on standard contracts until we get past the trade deadline and into buyout season.

As far as trades for New York the rest of this year? Keep in mind what we called out triggering a second apron hard cap. The Knicks are so tight to that figure, that making deals could be really difficult for the rest of this league year.

Dejounte Murray’s Bonuses and The New Orleans Pelicans Tricky Tax Timidity

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of two NBA franchises who have never paid the luxury tax. (The other is the Charlotte Hornets, for those interested in very niche NBA trivia.) Given that they aren’t exactly a title contender this year, the Pelicans probably aren’t jumping into paying the tax this season either. There’s also a matter of getting an $18-20 million check as part of the tax distribution if you aren’t a taxpaying team. 

But here’s the challenge: New Orleans is currently about $3.5 million over the luxury tax line.

Now, that’s not a big deal. Last year, the Pelicans were over the tax, but salary-dumped Kira Lewis Jr. at the trade deadline and ended up dodging the tax. It’s fair to expect a similar type of move this season. Waiving Jaylen Nowell before his contract guarantees, plus salary-dumping a minimum deal (Javonte Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Daniel Theis) will get them there.

But the Pelicans might have more wiggle room than it currently looks like. This is where Dejounte Murray’s bonuses come into play.

Dejounte Murray has a lot of bonuses in his contract. They add up to early $2.1 million in bonuses in fact. As of right now, almost $700,000 of those bonuses are considered likely. That bring Murray’s cap and tax hit to $29,517,134.

But, not is all that is seems here. Because of course it isn’t, right?

Some of Murray’s likely bonuses are tied to him playing 65 games. If he doesn’t hit 65 games played, the bonus flips over to unlikely. And, given that Murray is out for several more weeks, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that he’ll hit the 65 games played marker.

This ends up mattering for the Pelicans, because even though his cap/tax hit of $29.5 million won’t adjust until after the season, that adjustment will factor into the tax calculation for New Orleans. So, removing nearly $700,000 in bonuses brings the Pelicans that much closer to dodging that tax.

That means as New Orleans makes their rest-of-season moves, they’ll probably working with Murray at a slightly different tax figure. That’s because he’s probably going to miss out on most of his bonuses for this season.

On the flip side, towards the first apron, at which the Pelicans are hard-capped, he counts for the full amount of his contract, including any likely AND unlikely bonuses. So, that would make trading Murray a potentially trick situation. But the Pelicans aren’t very likely to move a player they just paid a heavy price to acquire.

Instead, let’s look at this situation through a different lens entirely.

Cam Johnson and The Apron Aggregation Anomaly

When it comes to trading players whose unlikely bonuses can cause an issue, there’s perhaps no better example than that of Brooklyn Nets wing Cam Johnson.

Let’s start with a simple question: Would the Nets trade Johnson?

The answer: Yes.

Brooklyn is just starting a rebuild. While Johnson’s contract is a fair value and declines from year to year, it runs for three years. That might be longer than a rebuilding Nets team really wants. And, arguably most importantly, Johnson has solid trade value. Teams are always looking for shooting with size and Johnson brings that. If Brooklyn can get assets for Johnson in the form of draft picks and younger talent, they’ll be interested.

So, what’s the challenge with trading Johnson? Again, those pesky bonuses come into play.

Johnson’s current cap/tax hit is $23,625,000. However, because of his bonuses, his apron hit sits at $27,000,000. That’s a difference of $3,375,000. While not a massive amount, it’s one that makes acquiring Johnson tricky for a team dealing apron issues.

For example, one popular NBA Trade Machine proposal features Johnson headed to the Los Angeles Lakers. In order to acquire Johnson in any reasonable trade construction, the Lakers have to aggregate salaries. That means they trigger a second apron hard cap. As it stands today, Los Angeles is only a scant $45,001 under the second apron. That’s almost no wiggle room, and there’s certainly not enough to bring in Johnson, given he’d account for the additional $3,375,000 towards the apron.

You can mess around with different combinations, but it gets tricky to find a match that makes sense for both the Nets and the Lakers. Given more than half the league is dealing with some form of hard cap, and a few more would be in trouble if they triggered one, finding a team that can easily absorb an additional $3.375 million is going to be somewhat difficult.

By no means does this make Johnson untradable. It just means that teams will have to get creative to find a workable deal, and may need to rope in a third team to get the trade done.

For years, bonuses have been a part of NBA contracts. The most altruistic reason to use them is as true incentives to spur better performance.

Sometimes teams use them to create additional cap or tax room. In 2019, the Brooklyn Nets were super creative in manufacturing some additional cap space by giving Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving some easily achievable, but initially unlikely, bonuses. The Nets gave both players bonuses built around games played, which they knew they would eventually hit, given they were both coming off seasons with missed time.

Teams have also used bonuses as a way to give players a chance at more money, but without doing it directly. Sometimes this is for cap-manipulation reasons, while other times it’s just to give the player something to work for, while still feeling like they got a bigger deal. And, yes, sometimes it’s to win the press conference (or maybe win the tweet?) by putting an artificially larger number out into the world than the player will actually earn.

However, we’re starting to see a change in the tide when it comes to bonuses. This offseason, 16 players signed deals with bonuses attached. However, some of those were carryover situations in extensions. That’s a bit lower than usual. And there’s a chance that the number of players signing deals with incentives will lessen even further in the future.

“For as long as we think the apron might be an issue, we’re probably going to avoid bonuses,” a Western Conference GM told Spotrac. “It simply creates an unnecessary hamstring when you are trying to build out your roster.”

An Eastern Conference executive thinks the bonus issue is going to made trades too hard for teams dealing with a hard cap.

“Look, no one feels bad for you if you trigger a hard cap. You did it to yourself. But the reality is that the idea of a hard cap is to make it…well…hard to make moves. And it works!

But when it comes to bonuses, the hard cap and making a trade, that’s an extra level of difficulty. I likened it to playing a game, but you aren’t allowed to shoot threes. Can you win? Sure. But is it harder? No doubt. It’s just takes a lot more work to get done,” he said.

A longtime agent told Spotrac they’d be fine if bonuses became a thing of the past.

“Pay guys up front. Stop playing games. I get it. I really do. But it’s nice to see some of these rules coming back on those who think they are the smartest guys in the room,” the agent said.

Bonuses aren’t gone. Some deals that run out for several more years have them. And there will always be a real reason to put them in a deal. But now, because of the aprons and the ease with which a team can become hard-capped, teams have an extra level of consideration when adding bonuses into signings and making trades that didn’t fully exist previously.

When trade season unofficially opens in mid-December, don’t be surprised if you hear teams and players bemoaning the issues the aprons and hard caps are causing. As we approach the trade deadline, don’t be surprised if those moans and groans turn into full-blown loud complaints. This is especially true if a deal gets scuttled because fitting in a bonus under a hard cap is too difficult. And, remember, unlike a trade bonus, a player can’t waive a contract bonus to make a trade work.

RELATED:

NBA Apron Tracker

NBA Tax Tracker

NBA Trade Machine

The 2024 Mets were a bit of a revelation, turning a dreadful start into an NLCS appearance when it was all said and done. But the offseason is here and so too are a laundry list of decisions to make and holes to fill across the roster.

Spotrac dives into a positional breakdown of where the 2025 Mets stand currently, plus a look at an 8 player, $550M free agent plan that could act as a” Plan B” to one major Juan Soto contract this winter.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agents

Position Players

In terms of everyday starters, only Pete Alonso is set to walk into free agency - though Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez, & Harrison Bader, all also headed to the open market, held large roles in 2024.

Alonso’s situation is completely fluid. It’s been reported that the Mets made a 7 year, $158M to their first baseman prior to the start of the 2024, and those same reports follow up that Alonso was in the market for an 8th year at the time. The nearly 30-year-old now hits the open market for the first time with a 6 year, $175M valuation in our system, though it’s largely believed that a multi-team bidding war can up this deal near $200M.

Elsewhere, outside of large contracts for SS Francisco Lindor (7 years, $224M remaining), & OF Brandon Nimmo (6 years, $121.5M remaining), the Mets starting lineup projects to be relatively inexpensive at the moment.

C: Francisco Alvarez (pre-arbitration)
1B: N/A
2B: Luisangel Acuna (pre-arbitration)
SS: Francisco Lindor: $32M
3B: Mark Vientos (pre-arbitration)
LF: Brandon Nimmo ($20.5M)
CF: Tyrone Taylor (estimated $3M)
RF: Starling Marte ($20.75M)
DH: Jeff McNeil ($15.75M)

The Starting Rotation

Decimated (on paper).

The Mets 2024 Opening Day Rotation
1. Kodai Senga

2. Jose Quintana

3. Luis Severino

4. Sean Manaea

5. Adrian Houser

Of this group, Senga missed nearly the entire season due to multiple injuries, but is under contract through 2027 (assuming he doesn’t opt-out after 2025). Houser was released in August after poor production & a bullpen stint. And the group of Quintana, Severino, & Manaea are all headed to free agency this week.

The Mets do have David Peterson under team control through 2026, & Tylor Megill under team control through 2027, but it’s safe to assume that NY will need to replace or re-sign at least two of these rotation spots for the upcoming season.

The Bullpen

Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Phil Maton, & Ryne Stanek are all headed to free agency but the young group of Dedniel Nunez, Jose Butto, & Reed Garrett should all be 6th, 7th, & 8th inning options for 2025. There are 3-4 depth spots to add here, and David Stearns would be smart to handcuff Edwin Diaz with a viable 9th inning colleague (possibly even old friend Devin Williams), but it’s unlikely NY allocates a ton of offseason resources to this portion of their roster.

The Looming Offseason

It should come as no surprise that the Mets, and owner Steve Cohen, have been directly tied to Juan Soto’s free agency already. Cohen has already shown once that money is no object when it comes to building this team, and Soto represents one of the most attractive building blocks in MLB Free Agency history. In a recent piece, Spotrac predicted that the bidding war for Soto could ramp things up to a contract that reaches 12 years, $660M.

Let’s assume that - despite their best efforts - the Mets don’t win the war for Soto, and instead project another way they can spend $500M+ this winter.

Sign SP Corbin Burnes: 7 years, $215M

Burnes holds a 6 year, $180M valuation in our system for his first trip to free agency, so any type of multi-team bidding war should keep him at the $30M+ per year mark rather easily. If the Yankees opt to keep Gerrit Cole off of the open market, Burnes (and to some degree Blake Snell) will be the big fish in the sea.

Re-Sign 1B Pete Alonso: 6 years, $174M

The highest average paid first baseman on a multi-year contract is Freddie Freeman at $27M per year. At $29M per year, Alonso easily eclipses that, while locking in more than the Mets reportedly offered him last spring (7 years, $158M).

Re-Sign SP Sean Manaea: 4 years, $75M

Manaea carries a $16.1M valuation in our system as he heads back to the open market, but he rose to become NYM’s ace for much of 2024. A newly crafted delivery & arm angle has him pitching with more confidence and efficiency. There will be a team or two looking to make this one of their big splashes this winter, but the Mets should have no trouble matching any offer.

Sign OF Tyler O’Neill: 3 years, $50M

Despite a bit of a banged up season O’Neill put together one of his better production years to date in Boston, collecting 18 doubles, 31 homers, and an .847 OPS. The Mets will watch Harrison Bader & Jesse Winker hit the open market, while 36-year-old Starling Marte enters a contract year and most likely can’t be counted on for 150+ games.

Sign RP David Robertson: 1 year, $12.5M

The 39-year-old spent half a season with the Mets back in 2023, and he could prove to be a perfect handcuff option for the sometimes maligned Edwin Diaz. He’s still producing at a high level despite his age, so this won’t be a “value” signing by any regards.

Sign RP Blake Treinen: 1 year, $12M + a $14M club option

If you can’t beat em’, steal from em’. Treinen returned to strong form in his 50 appearances for the Dodgers after two straight seasons lost to injury. The 36-year-old still has swing and miss stuff, and will bring a wealth of big-game pedigree to this Mets bullpen.

Sign SP Matthew Boyd: 1 year, $10M + a $12.5M club option

Boyd spent the last half of 2024 in Cleveland working his way back from 2023 Tommy John Surgery. He had all the signs of a player ready to resurrect his career, which means the Guardians will be looking to keep him at a relatively small-market price to gain value. The Mets can simply outbid here with hope that Boyd can fill the Quintana/Severino role for much of 2025.

Re-Sign Jose Iglesias: 1 year, $1.5M

This one seems like a no-brainer, all things considered. Iglesias, who can play plus defense all over the infield, proved to be a timely hitter, and a much-needed midseason spark (on and off the field) for a flailing organization. The projection here brings the 34-year-old back on the same salary as 2024, but a nice incentive package would certainly help sweeten the pot.

Guaranteed Total: $550M

RELATED: 2025 New York Mets Tax Payroll

The 2024 NBA offseason and early-season transaction period is behind us. Minus a handful of signings here and there, NBA transactions will go dormant until trade season opens up in mid-to-late-December. With extensions largely completed (for now!) and 2025-26 rookie scale team option decisions made, it’s time to look forward!

The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.

The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. This past year, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.

That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s not a lot of cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.

However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement, in addition to the usual handful of big trades.

With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 spending power around the NBA. This can, and will, change throughout the season. Teams will make decisions about the future up through the trade deadline. That will create more spending power for some, while using it up for others.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Teams – 2 Teams

1. Brooklyn Nets: $40.7 million

2. Washington Wizards: $27.5 million

Two teams project to have cap space in the summer of 2025. That’s it. (For reference: I’ve been doing cap space projections for well over a decade and have never had a year-out projection with just two teams.) That’s how much guaranteed money is already on the books for next season around the NBA.

Brooklyn gets to north of $40 million fairly easily. They let all of their free agents walk, at least initially, minus restricted free agents Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If Dorian Finney-Smith opts out – a true 50-50 decision – the Nets will have nearly $55 million in cap space. And, of course, this roster is a work-in-progress. So, don’t be surprised if Brooklyn sheds more money, or possibly takes some more on for future assets. Sean Marks is just getting started with his second rebuild.

Washington is still in the “deconstruction phase” with their roster, per their own front office. That means this projection is pretty tenuous. The Wizards could move off some money, with a whole bunch of tradable veterans. But that might come via taking on some onerous money, while adding more draft capital and young talent. For now, the flexibility is what really matters for the Wizards.

Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 Teams

1. Charlotte Hornets

2. Utah Jazz

It’s unlikely either of these teams will go the cap space route. Charlotte has players they’d like to re-sign and keep on their roster (Tre Mann, Cody Martin, Nick Richards), which will likely keep them from having cap space.

In order for the Jazz to get to having some cap space, they’d have to move John Collins or he’d have to opt out. Given the landscape this summer, Collins won’t recoup the $25.6 million he’ll make on his option. So, leave him on the Utah books for now. In addition, the Jazz project to have three first-round picks, including the potential first overall selection. That’s going to add decent chunk of change to the cap sheet too.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 10 Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks

2. Chicago Bulls

3. Detroit Pistons

4. Houston Rockets

5. LA Clippers

6. Memphis Grizzlies

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

8. Portland Trail Blazers

9. San Antonio Spurs

10. Toronto Raptors

As per usual, this group features a mix of title contenders, playoff contenders and rebuilding teams.

For the rebuilding teams, the Bulls are still digging out from underneath some signings and extensions they made when they were chasing contention. The cap sheet is cleaning up, but not quite there yet. And a new deal for Josh Giddey is looming too.

The Pistons took on a good chunk of money this past offseason in some of their deals. They’ve got pretty good flexibility overall, but this summer doesn’t project to be one of big spending in Detroit.

Portland is still dealing with the fallout from the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades. They took on more money than was desirable in those deals, but it’s not the end of the world. This situation is also pretty volatile, as the Blazers have a lot of veterans who could be on the move via trades. Keep an eye on Portland.

Some might be surprised to see the Spurs not in the cap space group. San Antonio projects to have three first-round picks in the upcoming draft. All of them currently project to land between the fifth and fifteenth pick. That, combined with previous deals, eats up the Spurs cap space.

Toronto used up any chance of having cap space when they extended Scottie Barnes, re-signed Immanuel Quickley and extended Kelly Olynyk. No complaints though, as those were all solid signings. The good news is that the Raptors have some money coming off the books, and that should leave room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Hawks, Rockets, Clippers and Grizzlies are all in roughly the same spots. All are would-be playoff teams. The first three are still retooling their rosters, but should have enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The Grizzlies are mostly there with their roster, but have so few spots to fill, that they should be fine using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Then we have the Thunder. The big spending of last summer won’t be repeated, but that doesn’t mean Oklahoma City doesn’t have flexibility. One of the NBA’s best teams is young, talented and the front office has a pretty clean cap sheet and still has a whole bunch of draft picks to trade. Good luck to the other 29 teams!

Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 5 teams

1. Indiana Pacers

2. Los Angeles Lakers

3. New Orleans Pelicans

4. Orlando Magic

5. Philadelphia 76ers

All playoff contenders in this group, with a couple hopeful of being more than that.

The Pacers have been pretty conservative with spending over the years. Recently, Indiana has been aggressive about extending and re-signing their own players. If that continues with Myles Turner in free agency this summer, the Pacers will be closer to having the Taxpayer MLE than the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Lakers created some flexibility by declining the third-year rookie scale option for Jalen Hood-Schifino. With LeBron James newfound willingness to help Los Angeles create some spending power, don’t be surprised if they maneuver to having the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The one caveat: If the Lakers make a big in-season trade this year, that could wipe out any future flexibility.

New Orleans has never paid the tax in franchise history. They probably won’t start that this year, as they are close enough to dodging the tax line to do so. That said, working right around the margins will continue for at least another year. Then things should free up a bit in 2026. Keep an eye on what happens with Brandon Ingram here. That will decide a lot of where the Pelicans are headed cap-/tax-wise.

The Magic locked into a whole bunch of long-term money this past offseason. That’s going to have them dancing around the luxury tax line and possibly even living in between the tax aprons. Having some team options on the books could give them the flexibility to drop salary and open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE, but they seem pretty content with the roster right now.

The Sixers pulled off the rare feat of using cap space and ending up as a tax team this season. That’s how much having Tyrese Maxey on a low cap hold meant to Philadelphia. Next year, they could create some additional wiggle room by moving off a couple of non-guaranteed deals. But the more likely path is that Daryl Morey will swing a trade or two this season to take on some money into next year. That’ll put the 76ers in Taxpayer MLE range or maybe even into second apron range.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 teams

1. Golden State Warriors

2. Sacramento Kings

The Warriors and Kings are similar spots. Both did a lot of maneuvering this past offseason and that’s got them with a good amount of money on the books, with more likely getting added soon.

Golden State has some key free agents in Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II. If they re-sign those guys, especially Kuminga, they’ll be back over the tax and nearing the second apron.

The Kings issue is more about the number of roster spots that they have to fill. Half of the Sacramento roster is going to hit free agency this summer. That likely includes Keon Ellis, who the Kings would be smart to decline their team option for, so that they can control the process with Ellis as a restricted free agent. With six players making between $11 million and $44 million, that doesn’t leave a ton of extra spending power.

Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 6 teams

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

2. Dallas Mavericks

3. Denver Nuggets

4. Miami Heat

5. Milwaukee Bucks

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The good news? All of these teams are playoff teams. The bad news? They are all really, really expensive playoff teams.

For the Cavs, this is mostly about what happens with Caris LeVert. If he’s re-signed to a fair-value deal, Cleveland will be a second apron team. If he’s not, they might have just enough room to squeeze in a signing with the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is dependent on what happens with Kyrie Irving. If he opts out and pushes for a max or near-max deal, the Mavs will be near the second apron. If Irving opts in, or re-signs for a similar salary with additional years tacked on, Dallas might be able to get to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Denver is in the same spot they’ve been in before. They can use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to fill one of their couple of open roster spots. But let’s not give out any second-year player options this time, ok?

Miami is all about Jimmy Butler. If he’s back, the Heat are dancing around the first and second aprons. If Butler moves on, then Miami could have some unexpected flexibility. This is a pretty massive summer for the Heat, both in the short- and long-term.

As for Milwaukee and Minnesota, they may be able to dip under the second apron. If one of Khris Middleton or Brook Lopez is gone, the Bucks will have a bunch of flexibility. If they’re both back, they’ll be over the second apron. This is very much a year-to-year thing in Milwaukee right now.

The Wolves are in an interesting spot. Rudy Gobert declining his option and extending freed up about $10 million in flexibility. We project Julius Randle to opt in (he won’t have big offers this summer with a lack of cap space around the league), but Minnesota still has to re-sign Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If they do that, they’ll be up over the second apron again.

Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 3 Teams

1. Boston Celtics

2. New York Knicks

3. Phoenix Suns

This group got halved from last year’s projections. The combination of the cap going up and some money coming off the books took four to five teams to within range of dodging the second apron.

Boston is all but guaranteed to be a second apron team. They’ll probably even challenge Phoenix for the largest payroll in the league. The big questions: Is Al Horford back? And how much will he cost the Celtics in salary plus tax penalties, if he is?

Phoenix is in the same spot they’ve been in for a bit now. Super expensive without much recourse to not be super expensive. But this past summer’s moves made more sense than the first time the Suns were in this spot. That signals Phoenix may be figuring out how to live as a second apron team.

That leaves the Knicks, who are in a really interesting spot. They’ve got nearly $195 million committed for just nine players. That leaves six roster spots to fill, which means they’ll push over the second apron. The real intrigue comes with how far they’ll push over. Will they re-sign Precious Achiuwa to bank some tradable salary, if for no other reason? Beyond that, trades (made within the host of second-apron restrictions) and signing a host of players to minimum deals is what we can expect in New York this summer.

As MLB officially flips the switch to offseason-mode, the focus immediately turns to Juan Soto, the most exciting free agent since: well Shohei Ohtani 12 months ago. We’ll take a few moments here to dive into a calculated value & predicted outcome for Soto’s free agent journey over the next few weeks.

Calculated Valuation(s)

Using Spotrac’s market value analysis (which pairs the two-year production prior to the contract of four comparable players against Soto’s last two years of production), we’re given the highest calculated valuation in our history:

14 years, $513,842,854

However, we’ve opted not to use Shohei Ohtani as a variable for this valuation for the simple reason that Soto didn’t get the Padres/Yankees 298 innings on the mound. If we factor in Ohtani’s $70M per year contract to this math, Soto’s value soars to:

14 years, $647,090,402

This is a 26% increase over our initial valuation. Let’s cut that in half to account for the lack of pitching from Soto. 

14 years, $580,642,425

Is it enough? The simple answer is no. This is what the math is telling us to report. But there aren't enough comparable players for Juan Soto. He's a rare combination of age (just turned 26) plus multi-tool production. We'll try to poke some holes into this process to get us to a number that fits a little better in this current climate.

A Logical Outcome

It’s never best practice in our opinion to give too much attention to the APY (average per year) metric, especially as it pertains to finding a player’s overall value (term & guarantee generally drive the process), but in a league like MLB that utilizes a luxury tax payroll that derives from the average salary, it’s at least in consideration.

MLB’s Highest Tax Salaries
1. Shohei Ohtani, $46.08M (10 years)
2. Zack Wheeler, $42M (3 years)
3. Aaron Judge, $40M (9 years)
4. Jacob deGrom, $37M (5 years)
5. Gerrit Cole, $36M (9 years)

It’s important to make note of the contract length here, as it’s the dividing factor that gives us the APY. Generally speaking, the top APY contracts in MLB have come from shorter term deals. Judge was able to sneak an extra year out of the Yankees, but if Soto is in consideration for a contract of 13-15 years, we’re talking about an historic combination of length & substance.

MLB’s Longest Active Contracts (APY)
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 14 years ($24.2M)
T2. Bryce Harper: 13 years ($25.3M)
T2. Giancarlo Stanton: 13 years ($25M)
T4. Julio Rodriguez: 12 years ($17.4M)
T4. Mike Trout: 12 years ($35.5M)
T4. Mookie Betts: 12 years ($30.4M)
T4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 12 years, ($27M)

Again, we see very little evidence that MLB teams have been willing to go mega-long-term with a mega-APY simultaneously. The obvious comparable here is Mike Trout, who signed his 12 year, $426.5 million extension back in March of 2019. Let’s break that down a bit:

The CBT threshold in 2019 was $206,000,000.
The CBT threshold in 2025 is $241,000,000.
This represents a 17% increase.

If we tack that 17% onto Trout’s $35,541,667 APY, we’re given a $41,584,000 figure. Trout signed for 12 years, so Soto would be looking at a 12 year, $500M contract in this comparison. But it’s largely expected that Soto’s free agent deal will come in at the 14-15 year range.

Will MLB teams be willing to keep this type of historic APY at that length? It only takes one, and on Day 1 of the 2024 offseason, it’s been reported that 11 teams have already reached out with interest in discussing a contract for Soto. That’s almost 40% of the league.

Generally speaking, especially as it pertains to free agency, we’re inclined to dial back a valuation or prediction that can often be “hot-stoved” out of proportion. But that’s just simply not the case here. The mathematical values come in (clearly) low because we simply don’t have enough variables that carry the age & across-the-board production that Soto brings to the table this winter. So in light of this, we’re going to buck our usual trepidation - and predict BIG.

A Final Prediction

Juan Soto is barely 26 years old (October 25th), and he’s already earned $82.3M on the field - without ever signing a multi-year contract. Ohtani’s 10 year contract takes him through his age 38 season, and guarantees him $742.2M of career earnings when it’s all said and done.

For Soto to eclipse this, he’ll need a contract that amounts to $660M in total value. If we align the landing age (38) with Ohtani, this would mean a 13 year contract for Soto, or an APY of $50.7M. A 14-year contract would chime in at $47.1M, running through his age-39 season, while a 15 year deal would mean a nice, clean APY of $44M, making Soto 40-years old at its completion. But we’re going to zag here at the final hour:

Ohtani’s deal exists because of an insane amount of deferred compensation ($680M). Soto and his super agent Scott Boras aren’t expected to agree to something that drastic, but it would be reckless to assume that deferred payments won’t at least be a conversation during this free agent negotiation process. So here’s our final offer, all elements included:

12 years, $660,000,000 ($215M deferred)

Spotrac celebrates the Halloween season with a look at 8 of the scarier active contracts in major professional sports, including two each from the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

Deshaun Watson (QB, Browns)

Cleveland acquired Watson from the Houston Texans then immediately signed him to a 5 year,  $230,000,000 extension through the 2026 season. The catch? Every dollar of it was fully guaranteed at the time of signing. In his 4 active seasons in Houston, Watson averaged a passer rating of 104.1. But during his time in Cleveland (of which he’s played in just 19 games), Watson’s rating has dropped to a miserable 80.8.

The Browns now have to deal with an oft-injured, subpar quarterback with over $92M left to be paid, on cap hits of $72.935M (2025), $72.935M (2026) and $26.9M (voided dead cap). The contract also holds a full no-trade clause. Terrifying.

Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys)

The Cowboys waited until the very last moment of the 2024 offseason before handing Prescott his 4 year, $240,000,000 ($231M guaranteed) extension, and they may be wishing they had waited a little longer through 8 weeks. The 31-year-old former 4th round pick is off to near career lows across the board, and as almost non-existent as a scrambling weapon out of the pocket. Dallas will need to open up their pockets further to rebuild this offense around Prescott & CeeDee Lamb, and it won’t be overly easy.

Prescott is fully guaranteed out of the gate through 2025 at $129M, and $231M of this contract will fully vest by early March 2027. Chilling.

Anthony Rendon (3B, Angels)

The Angels signed Rendon to a 7 year, $245,000,000 free agent contract immediately after he helped the Nationals win a miracle World Series title in 2019. In his last 5 seasons with Washington (2015-19), Rendon averaged 133 games played per season, with a 4.6 annual WAR. In his 5 seasons with LAA thus far (2020-24), Rendon has averaged 51 games played, with a 0.7 WAR.

The contract still holds fully guaranteed salaries of $38M for 2025 & $38M in 2026, and a full no-trade clause. Frightful.

Kris Bryant (OF/DH, Rockies)

The Rockies, fresh off of a 74-87, 4th-place 2021 season, signed Bryant away from the Giants to a 7 year, $182M contract. It was a cringe-worthy move then, and it remains as such 3 years later. To be fair, Bryant’s resurgence in 2021 (after a year and a half nosedive), gave teams a sense of irrational confidence when he hit the open market for the first time.

It wound up being fool’s gold however, as the 32-year-old carries a -1.03 WAR in 3 full seasons with the Rockies. The contract still has another 4 years, $104M to go, with a full no-trade clause to make things even more fun. Hair-Raising.

Jonathan Huberdeau (F, Flames)

The Flames acquired the rights to Huberdeau in a massive trade that sent Matthew Tkachuk to Florida, then extended the former #3 overall pick to an 8 year, $84M contract. He posted 115 points (30 goals, 85 assists) for the Panthers in the 2021-22 season. He’s collected 107 points in his 2+ seasons with Calgary since.

Huberdeau’s $10.5M AAV/Cap Hit ranks 10th in the NHL among forwards. He’s owed another $73.5M through the 2030-31 season. Blood-Curling.

Shea Weber (D, Utah)

Alright, this one’s a bit of low-hanging fruit, as Weber has been unable to take the ice since the 2020-21 season due to lingering foot/ankle/knee/thumb injuries - but it remains on the books nevertheless. Weber agreed to a 14 year, $110M contract with the Nashville Predators back in July of 2012. What could go wrong?

He was a good/great player through the 2016-17 season before things really started to nosedive (as will happen with a mid-30s athlete). The former 2nd round pick has been traded 3 times since 2016 (mostly just as a salary cap dump), and now finds himself on the Utah Hockey Club books for each of the next two seasons.

12 years later, Weber’s $7,857,143 cap hit, which runs through the 2025-26 season, still ranks 23rd among NHL defensemen. Petrifying.

Bradley Beal (SG, Suns)

Signed a 5 year, $251,020,000 extension with the Washington Wizards in July of 2022 after a season in which he played 40 games. The last time Beal played all 82 games was 2018-19, and he’s battling an early season injury already at the time of this piece.

The contract holds salaries of $50.2M this year, $53.6M next year, with a $57.1M player option in place for 2026-27. Eye-popping numbers for what can easily be considered Phoenix’s 3rd best offensive option. Grotesque.

Jordan Poole (SG, Wizards)

Remember when Poole was going to be the “next-generation” bridge that kept the Warriors’ dynasty alive? That didn’t age well. Golden State gave Poole a 4 year, $128M rookie extension in October of 2022, then traded him to Washington the following summer with a 1st Rd Pick, a 2nd Rd  Pick & two players for Chris Paul. All of this really happened. I double-checked.

Washington is now in Year 2 of this contract, paying Poole $29.6M this season, $31.8M next year, and $34M in 2026-27. There’s time for him to play his way into better standing, but for now: Horrifying.

Chas McCormick (OF, Astros)

Projected 2025 Salary: $4.8M

After a mini-breakout in 2023, McCormick’s 2024 was a veritable disaster, compounded by a finger injury down the stretch. If he’s not moved (or non-tendered), McCormick’s time as an everyday player could be depleted in Houston. He’s arbitration-eligible through 2026.

Mason Miller (RP, Athletics)

Projected 2025 Salary: $800,000

The 26-year-old closer is still the pre-arbitration portion of his team control, with 5 more years remaining before free agency. It’ll take an A++ offer to get the Athletics to pick up the phone and move on from this kind of financial value.

Brent Rooker (OF/DH, Athletics)

Projected 2025 Salary: $3.5M

Rooker has 3 more years of team control remaining, so the Athletics don’t need to be in a rush to move him this winter. The 29-year-old has 46 doubles and 69 homers across his past two seasons, and would be a strong addition to the middle of a batting lineup. He’s a minus defender, and strikes out at a pretty aggressive rate, but if the A’s are willing to listen, there will be offers this offseason.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, Blue Jays)

Projected 2025 Salary: $28.8M

The 25-year-old rounded back into form in 2024 (30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 6.17 WAR), putting him in the driver’s seat for a bigtime payday over the course of the next 15 months. Is he part of Toronto’s long-term plans? Are the Blue Jays willing to keep the gas pedal down in 2025? If either of those answers are no, shopping Vlad Jr. ahead of his final season of team control is a must.

Bo Bichette (SS, Blue Jays)

2025 Salary: $16.5M

Bichette struggled mightily in 2025 (-0.26 WAR), posting career lows across the board. He’s fully guaranteed at $16.5M for the upcoming season before heading to the open market for the first time next winter. This would be a sell-low move for Toronto right now, who may be better off hoping he can return to form early on, before dangling the 26-year-old around the trade deadline.

Jorge Soler (OF/DH, Braves)

2025 Salary: $13M

Soler was (re)acquired at the deadline to fill the void left by Ronald Acuna Jr.’s long-term injury. He produced admirably, but is likely too expensive to keep as a depth piece going forward. His ability to produce with power should make him attractive enough to move this winter. Soler holds a $13M salary in each of 2025 & 2026.

Devin Williams (RP, Brewers)

2025 Salary: $10.5M Club Option (arbitration-eligible)

Williams became the topic of trade rumors immediately following his disastrous postseason run - but that doesn’t make this a likely move. The 30-year-old is a pending free agent after 2025, and despite the ugly finish - is in line to cost a fortune going forward. But Milwaukee has a clear path to win the NL Central again in 2025, and keeping their closer in the fold only helps that.

Jordan Montgomery (SP, Diamondbacks)

2025 Salary: $22.5M Player Option

It’s unclear just how ugly things got behind the scenes between the D-Backs and Montgomery, who was relegated to the bullpen for much of 2024. It’s a veritable lock that he picks up his $22.5M option for 2025, but will Arizona look to flip the nearly 32-year-old thereafter?

Josh Naylor (1B, Guardians)

Projected 2025 Salary: $14.2M

Naylor popped 31 homers in 2024, a career-high, but still finds himself amidst trade rumors as the offseason approaches. His final year of arbitration comes with a sizable salary increase, and the Guardians are always conscious about budgeting properly in any given season. Naylor was a coveted trade candidate in the winter of 2023, so it’s safe to assume that he’ll have plenty of suitors again this time around.

Jesús Luzardo (SP, Marlins)

Projected 2025 Salary: $8.6M

Luzardo battled injury and poor results all season, so Miami would be selling him at a low point. However, the 27-year-old is arbitration-eligible through 2026, giving interested teams a chance to settle him into their rotation a bit with financial value.

Jeff McNeil (2B, Mets)

2025 Salary: $15.75M

This might be a bit of wishful thinking here, as McNeil hasn’t hit anywhere near consistent enough to justify his 4 year, $50M contract. He’s owed $15.75M each of 2025 & 2026, and the Mets have youngsters Luisangel Acuna & Ronny Mauricio ready to fill a 2B/OF spot next spring. If NY is willing to pay down some of the owed salary, there may be a trade partner or two out there.

Nick Castellanos (OF, Phillies)

2025 Salary: $20M

A worthy outfielder and power producer, Castellanos has been a fan-favorite for the better part of 3 seasons in Philly. But it stands to reason that Dave Dombrowski and company will look to shake up this roster at least a little bit. And oh by the way, an aggressive run at OF Juan Soto could also mean the need to free up both a roster spot and some salary.

Adolis García (OF, Rangers)

2025 Salary: $9.25M

After three straight seasons of both production & improvement, Garcia took a step back in 2024 (along with many Rangers). The Rangers have a few offseason holes to fill, so shedding a little salary elsewhere could be part of the process. Garcia is locked in at $9.25M through 2025, but then becomes arbitration-eligible for the final time again in 2026 before free agency in 2027.

Zack Littell (SP, Rays)

Projected 2025 Salary: $6M

The Rays have a rare surplus of starting pitching (assuming everyone returns to full health this winter). With the rest of the roster in a bit of turmoil, flipping an arm for a bat or two makes good business sense. Littell is entering his third and final arbitration season, and stands to be one of the pricier players for Tampa Bay in 2025.

Triston Casas (1B, Red Sox)

Projected 2025 Salary: $800,000

Casas has 4 years of team control remaining, including an extremely valuable pre-arbitration salary in 2025. A rib injury greatly limited his 2024 production, but this is a player who can go on a run and carry a team offensively at times. Boston has a logjam of left-handed hitters, a few really strong prospects ready to graduate to the show, and could use a bat for an arm swap this winter. Still, this move would be considered surprising, all things considered.

Jonathan India (2B, Reds)

2025 Salary: $5.45M

India’s been amidst trade rumors for awhile now, and went public with his desire for this Cincinnati front office to start writing checks to properly build up this roster. There’s enough smoke here again to think India could be shopped, though he does hold a final season of arbitration in 2026 before hitting the open market.

Cal Quantrill (SP, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $9.8M

Quantrill is entering his final year of arbitration, and the Rockies have already made public their plan to cut payroll for the upcoming season. Despite the Coors Field backdrop, Quantrill was efficient in 2024 and would slot in nicely as a #4 for many contending teams in 2025.

Austin Gomber (SP, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $5.2M

Gomber is entering his final year of arbitration, and represents a cheaper - though not as productive - option to teammate Cal Quantrill on the trade block. With that said, 2024 was a career year for Gomber, so it’s a good time to shop the nearly 31-year-old.

Brendan Rodgers (2B, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $6.8M

The 28-year-old former #3 overall pick really hasn’t hit his expected peak, especially at the plate. 2025 represents his final year of team control, so Colorado may be looking to pull back a little value this winter before it’s too late.

Garrett Crochet (SP, White Sox)

Projected 2025 Salary: $2.9M

When healthy, and it’s a big if, Crochet has proven to be one of the more efficient pitchers in the game (though we’re talking about just 32 career starts here). Chicago values him as an “ace”, so a trade for the 25-year-old - who has two arbitration years remaining - would likely bring back a blockbuster-type return.

Luis Robert Jr. (OF, White Sox)

Remaining Contract: 1 yr, $15M + 2 $20M Club Options

Robert is by far Chicago’s most productive bat, and his $15M salary for 2025 is second only to Andrew Benintendi’s $17.1M next season. The immediate plans for this franchise remain unknown, but until Chicago makes it clear that they’re back in spending mode, we’ll consider a trade of Robert for prospects one of the better possibilities of the winter.

September 1st, the 2025 Free Agency period opened up with chaos as the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the NWSL and the NWSL Players Association (NWSLPA) significantly changed the offseason framework—neither the updated competition calendar for the rest of 2024 with window openings/closing nor the new CBA in full have been released. 

Years of service no longer matter when it comes to free agency and with that, there is no more unrestricted free agents versus restricted free agents. If a player’s contract expired in 2024, they were on the 2025 free agency list. With the new CBA, the deadline for clubs to exercise their part in options was pulled in from mid-October to the end of August, and when players could begin talks, negotiations, and even signing with other teams was also pulled in to September. 

Now the NWSL is in Week 9 of 2025 Free Agency being open, and unsurprisingly with the regular season not yet completed, of the 25 signings there has yet to be a player who signed for a new club.

2025 FA Tracker: view here

Of the 25 players now re-signed with their current clubs, contract length has been fairly varied, with a two year contract through 2026 being the most common:

Positionally, the spread of signings is pretty evenly spread across the 25 players, with eight forwards, five midfielders, six defenders, and six goalkeepers.

Where the 25 re-signed 2025 Free Agents have signed 

If you are worried your team might not be very active in the space, it’s also important to keep in mind teams’ 2025 roster status, read more here. 

Alongside the players signed, several players whose 2025 options were exercised ahead of the deadline in order to avoid them entering fray were announced. Additionally, four players have announced their retirement from professional soccer including Alex Morgan, Christine Sinclair, Desiree Scott, and Merritt Mathias.

Starting at the beginning of the 2024 regular season but ahead of the Free Agency deadline, 15 players who were slated to become Free Agents were signed to extensions in order for teams to avoid any potential bidding wars that come with Free Agency. Nine teams were involved in extending contracts of these players with Seattle and Bay leading the charge with three signings, while Houston and Orlando had two, and Portland, North Carolina, Kansas City, Chicago, and Louisville had one. 

As is visible from the chart below, the biggest part of extensions fall in the three year contract bucket:

The original published schedule footprint—which was removed following the announcement of the new CBA—included a December 10th entry for the end of season roster decisions. With 112 players remaining on the 2025 Free Agency list, it’s likely that following whenever that deadline ends up being, at that point there will start to be an uptick in free agents potentially choosing to sign with new teams.

To look back at how 2024 Free Agency went, read more here.

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Baltimore Orioles

Projected 40-Man CBT: $103.8M (24th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 2 ($14.3M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 16 ($50.5M)
One of the better stories throughout much of 2024 completely combusted down the stretch, missing out on a division title, then being swept out of the Wild Card round. With that said, Gunnar Henderson is a cornerstone piece and Colton Cowser had his mini-breakout. However, Adley Rutschman slid back (again) offensively, there’s no 9th-inning reliever in sight, and Corbin Burnes, the only viable starter, is headed to the open market. O’s fans will be impatiently waiting for this new ownership group to open up their checkbooks.

Notable Options
Eloy Jimenez (DH, $16.5M Club), Seranthony Dominguez (RP, $8M Club), Ryan O'Hearn (1B, $8M Club), Danny Coulombe (RP, $4M Club), Cionel Perez (RP, $2.2M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Corbin Burnes (SP), Anthony Santander (OF), James McCann (C)

Boston Red Sox

Projected 40-Man CBT: $162.1M (15th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($95.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 3 ($11.7M)
Boston hit the All-Star break 10 games over .500, but predictably couldn’t sustain that level of play for the full season. However, this is a team that continues to get younger (and subsequently cheaper), and the Red Sox haven’t been shy about locking in their youth to mid-range extensions. With at least two top-tier prospects (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer) ready to make the jump, Boston might smell blood a little bit right now, which could mean an offseason spending spree to plug as many holes as possible.

Notable Options
Rob Refsnyder (OF, $2.1M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Tyler O'Neill (OF), Nick Pivetta (SP), Kenley Jansen (RP), Lucas Sims (RP)

New York Yankees

Projected 40-Man CBT: $239.4M (4th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($122.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($42.3M)
The Yankees survived more than a few injuries throughout the regular season to garner another AL East title, and a trip to the World Series. The Soto/Judge/Stanton powered lineup certainly went as planned, but keeping it sustainable will take an extra $550M or so. Keeping Gerrit Cole off the open market will mean another $36M added to his contract, and Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and 2-3 relievers need to be replaced this winter. Buckle up folks, we’re headed for a Yankees-of-old offseason.

Notable Options
Gerrit Cole (SP, 4 yr, $144M opt-out), Luke Weaver (RP, $2.5M Club), Anthony Rizzo (1B, $17M Club), Lou Trivino (RP, $5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Juan Soto (RF), Gleyber Torres (INF), Tommy Kahnle (RP), Alex Verdugo (OF), Clay Holmes (RP)

Tampa Bay Rays

Projected 40-Man CBT: $104.8M (23rd)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($39.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 12 ($26.3M)
The season of injury (plus an off-the-field disaster) proved too much to overcome for the Rays. But greener grass is coming in the spring, as a loaded starting rotation should return to full health, and at least a few bats (Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe, Junior Caminero) will be back in the fold. With that said, the Rays need to score more runs, and relying on a prospect-filled roster generally doesn’t lend itself to that type of immediate production. But knowing this front office - the Rays are certainly going to attempt to buck that trend. Top SS prospect Carson Williams could make the team out of camp (assuming Wander Franco doesn’t return), and if things are going well, CF/2B Chandler Simpson could make his much anticipated debut as well. It’s tough to imagine this team spending too much this offseason, but stranger things have happened.

Notable Options
Brandon Lowe (2B, $10.5M Club)

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected 40-Man CBT: $205M (7th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($114.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 10 ($61.3M)
Are we past the make or break point with this core group? You can tell me that the Blue Jays plan to run it back and make Juan Soto the highest offer this winter as well. You can also tell me that the Blue Jays are fielding calls for both Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette this winter. I’ll believe both, which makes this team a must watch. If they miss on Soto, this could be a front office that doesn’t believe they should be paying for a Top 10 payroll, at which point, it’s hard to imagine anyone not becoming available to the trade/non-tender market.

Notable Free Agents
Ryan Yarbrough (RP)

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Chicago Cubs

Projected 40-Man CBT: $190.3M (8th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($104.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 15 ($35.7M)
The Cubs finished 2nd in the NL Central, led by a starting rotation (Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Steele) that remained effective for most of 2024. Chicago’s letdown came at the plate, where Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, & Nico Hoerner all had setback seasons. Bellinger has a chance to opt-out of his 2 year, $52.5M remaining, but that’s looking less and less likely now. Look for Chicago to add a shot-in-the-arm bat, then focus heavily on bullpen depth this winter.

Notable Options
Cody Bellinger (CF, 2 yrs, $52.5M Opt-Out), Drew Smyly (P, $10M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Jorge López (RP), Kyle Hendricks (SP)

Cincinnati Reds

Projected 40-Man CBT: $92.5M (27th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 3 ($28.2M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($28.9M)
The Reds have already made significant changes to their front office and coaching staff, a likely prerequisite for what should be an active winter. The focus almost certainly will key in on a starting rotation that hasn’t developed enough to keep up with a flourishing set of young bats. The Reds could use a Royals-like winter, bringing in more mid-range-priced arms than seemingly needed, offering both regular season depth, and a trade chip or two down the stretch. Seeing a young position player or two traded this winter wouldn’t be much of a surprise either.

Notable Options
Nick Martinez (SP, $12M Player), Emilio Pagan (RP, $8M Player), Jake Junis (RP, $8M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Buck Farmer (RP), Amed Rosario (UTIL), Justin Wilson (RP)

Milwaukee Brewers

Projected 40-Man CBT: $132.4M (19th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($47M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 10 ($28.6M)
The Brewers ran away with the NL Central division this year, but were bounced by the Mets in the Wild Card round. Milwaukee had a little bit of everything this season: A veteran resurgence from Christian Yelich, an out-of-nowhere burst from William Contreras, & a youth breakout from Jackson Chourio. Milwaukee has bullpen depth, at least 4 rotation arms, and about 85% of their position players in place. But shortstop Willy Adames will be hitting the open market coming off of a career year. The Brewers generally don’t get involved with “max” contracts, so this will be replacement priority number one most likely.

Notable Options
Frankie Montas (SP, $20M Mutual), Rhys Hoskins (1B, $18M Player), Freddy Peralta (SP, $8M Club), Colin Rea (SP, $5.5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Willy Adames (SS), Joe Ross (RP)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected 40-Man CBT: $99.1M (26th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 4 ($43.7M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($22.8M)
The Pirates finished last in the NL Central, & ten games under .500, but there has to be a sense of excitement heading toward the offseason knowing that the combination of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, & to a lesser extent Mitch Keller gives them a bonafide, legitimate starting rotation. There’s more help coming from the farm system at this regard, putting the onus on this annually thrifty front office to build up the bullpen and batting line in the coming months. Recent extensions for Keller, Bryan Reynolds, & Ke'Bryan Hayes are a sign that things could be ramping up, but the foot needs to remain on the gas pedal this winter.

Notable Options
Marco Gonzales (SP, $15M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Andrew McCutchen (DH), Yasmani Grandal (C), Aroldis Chapman (RP), Jalen Beeks (RP)

St. Louis Cardinals

Projected 40-Man CBT: $157.1M (16th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($105.1M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 6 ($20.7M)
The Cardinals tied the Cubs for 2nd in the NL Central, despite being relatively average in most metrics. Masyn Winn & Ryan Helsley had major arrow-up campaigns, but much of the group (Arenado, Gorman, Nootbar, etc..) had stepback seasons. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at 1B, adding at least 2 reliable starters, and finding the right player to bridge the gap to Helsley at the end of games seem priorities.

Notable Options
Kyle Gibson (SP, $12M Club), Lance Lynn (SP, $11M Club), Keynan Middleton (RP, $6M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Andrew Kittredge (RP), Matt Carpenter (DH)

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Chicago White Sox

Projected 40-Man CBT: $75.3M (29th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 2 ($23.3M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($19.95M)
The 41-121 White Sox have nowhere to go but up - unless they don’t. SP Garrett Crochet will remain one of the hottest trade names all winter, while outfielders Andrew Benintendi & Luis Robert Jr. (Chicago’s only guaranteed salary), could very well hear their names in trade talks as well. There’s talent in the farm system, but the White Sox need to give that process time to properly develop before they try to build around it at the major league level.

Notable Options
Yoan Moncada (3B, $25M Club), Max Stassi (C, $7.5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Chris Flexen (SP), Michael Soroka (SP), Mike Clevinger (SP)

Cleveland Guardians

Projected 40-Man CBT: $114.2M (21st)
Guaranteed Contracts: 4 ($41.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($38.7M)
Despite one of the youngest rosters in MLB, the Guardians found themselves in a slugfest with the Yankees this past ALCS. Cleveland prefers to operate somewhere in the middle 20 payroll rank range, so an early projection near the Top 20 likely means something stands to give. That something may be 1B Josh Naylor, who projects to carry a $14M+ arbitration salary in 2025, and could bring back a nice trade return for Cleveland this winter. With that said, this is a team that needs to aggressively find starting pitching this offseason.

Notable Free Agents
Shane Bieber (SP), Matt Boyd (SP), Alex Cobb (SP)

Detroit Tigers

Projected 40-Man CBT: $99.4M (25th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 3 ($40M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($25.6M)
One of the bigger surprises of 2024 now turn the page knowing that SP Tarik Skubal (obviously), & OF Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter represent a legitimate young core going forward. Will the Tigers aggressively reshape their infield this winter? Will top prospect Jackson Jobe join the rotation out of camp? This is easily one of the more fun teams to watch over the course of the next few months.

Notable Options
Casey Mize (SP, $3.1M Club)

Kansas City Royals

Projected 40-Man CBT: $126.1M (20th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 3 ($61.7M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($24.1M)
KC added roster pieces in volume last winter, then locked in their cornerstone piece Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11 year, $288M extension. He and 1B Vinnie Pasquantino represent the young core, but it’s a bit of a checkers board elsewhere. Will this front office be as aggressive in added veteran depth, or will this be a team that looks to its youth to develop into a winning group sooner rather than later? Outfield and Starting Pitching top the offseason needs list.

Notable Options
Michael Wacha (SP, $16M Player), Adam Frazier (INF, $8.5M Mutual), Hunter Renfroe (OF, $7.5M Player), Chris Stratton (RP, $4.5M Player)

Notable Free Agents
Michael Lorenzen (SP), Garrett Hampson (SS), Paul DeJong (SS), Tommy Pham (OF), Yulieski Gurriel (1B)

Minnesota Twins

Projected 40-Man CBT: $144.9M (18th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($82M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 13 ($35.4M)
The pieces are all there, but health issues plus a brutal stretch of baseball to finish off 2024 kept this franchise out of the postseason. Baseball’s #2 farm system (MLB Pipeline) could help fill in some of the holes, but a splashy signing at first base plus a veteran rotation piece or two seem the most likely paths forward this winter.

Notable Options
Manuel Margot (OF, $12M Mutual), Kyle Farmer (SS, $6.25M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Carlos Santana (1B), Max Kepler (OF)