A handful of players got a jump on “option season” already. Danuel House Jr. of the Philadelphia 76ers and Otto Porter Jr. of the Toronto Raptors exercised their player options to return to their teams well ahead of their due dates. Fred VanVleet of the Raptors chose to decline his player option a few days ahead of his player option due date.

As a point of order, a player or team option isn’t really declined. It’s simply not exercised. A player must exercise, or opt in, to his option year, while a team must take the same action when they have control. The lone exception here is an Early Termination Option. For an ETO, a player must decline or opt out. No action would result in that player staying under contract.

With three decisions already made, we’re going to take a shot at predicting what happens with the remaining 40 player and team options.

Atlanta Hawks

No pending options

Boston Celtics

Danilo Gallinari - $6.8M player option

Gallinari is coming off a torn ACL that cost him the entirety of the 2022-23 season. He’s going to pick up this option and will hopefully debut for Boston this coming fall.

Mike Muscala - $3.5M team option

The Celtics are likely to pick up their option for Muscala and bring him back next season. They invested two second-round picks in a trade for him at the 2022 trade deadline. He’ll be back to provide depth up front in Boston.

Brooklyn Nets

No pending options

Charlotte Hornets

No pending options

Chicago Bulls

Andre Drummond - $3.4M player option

Drummond will reportedly pick his option up. That makes sense, as this is a bit more than he’d make on veteran minimum deal in free agency. He could also have a bigger role with Chicago, pending what happens with Nikola Vucevic.

Derrick Jones Jr. - $3.4M player option

Jones is in roughly the same boat as Drummond, and he’ll also reportedly pick up his option. Considering he’d probably get a veteran minimum deal elsewhere, picking up his option gets Jones a bit more money now.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lamar Stevens - $1.9M team option

This one is a real decision. Stevens showed he can be an NBA rotation player next year, so the Cavs would love to keep him around. If they pick up their option, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024. There’s probably not enough of a worry to necessitate handing restricted free agency now. Stevens will be back on his minimum deal.

Dallas Mavericks

No pending options

Denver Nuggets

Bruce Brown - $6.8M player option

Brown is going to opt out. The real question: Will he stay in Denver? Following the Nuggets winning the title, Brown said he wants to stay. The challenge is Denver can only offer him $7.8 million using his Non-Bird rights. This could be a Bobby Portis in Milwaukee type of situation. Play one more year on an under-market deal, then the Nuggets take care of Brown with Early Bird rights in the summer of 2024.

Detroit Pistons

Alec Burks - $10.5M team option

The Pistons didn’t trade Burks at the deadline, because they valued his veteran game with their young team. It’s hard to imagine much has changed. Look for Detroit to pick up their option for Burks and for him to be a part of things…at least until next trade season.

Isaiah Livers - $1.8M team option

Livers has shown enough flashes that he should be back for the minimum. Detroit will pick this option up and Livers will get another chance to earn a rotation spot this summer and in camp.

Eugene Omoruyi - $1.9M team option

Omoruyi can play, but the Pistons will probably decline his option. That doesn’t mean he might not be back, but for now the roster spot and the cap space are more important for Detroit.

Golden State Warriors

Donte DiVincenzo - $4.7M player option

DiVincenzo got squeezed a bit in free agency, but made the most of it. He bounced back to have a very good year. The Warriors won’t be able to offer him much of a raise if he opts out, but DiVincenzo will probably test the market and see if there’s more out there for him this summer.

Draymond Green - $27.6M player option

Green is widely expected to opt out. The question is if he’ll re-sign with the Warriors or not. The best guess here is that Green opts out and re-signs on a long-term deal, but one that allows Golden State some flexibility at the end.

Houston Rockets

Kenyon Martin Jr. - $1.9M team option

 This one depends on what the Rockets overall free agency plans are. If they are continuing with the rebuild, they probably decline Martin’s option. That would allow them to control the process in restricted free agency, as they work out a long-term deal with Martin. If Houston is chasing veterans with their cap space, they should pick up Martin’s option as a cheaper depth player. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024 that way, but that’s a risk worth taking if using cap space on win-now players this summer.

Indiana Pacers

No pending options

LA Clippers

No pending options

Los Angeles Lakers

Malik Beasley - $16.5M team option

Beasley never really found a groove with the Lakers, but he’s still a good shooter/scorer off the bench. Los Angeles looks increasingly less likely to go the cap space route, which means they’ll pick up this option for Beasley. He can be a rotation guy next season and, if nothing else, a nice piece of salary-matching in a later trade.

Memphis Grizzlies

Xavier Tillman Sr. - $1.9M team option

This is another situation where declining the option makes the player a restricted free agent, while picking it up makes him unrestricted a year from now. Tillman is probably never going to be a primary target in free agency, so there’s no need worry about controlling his free agent process. Memphis should pick this option up and keep Tillman for frontcourt depth.

Miami Heat

Victor Oladipo - $9.5M player option

Oladipo will pick this option up. There was a point where that would have been just fine with the Heat. Then Oladipo suffered another serious knee injury. Now, that’s some money Miami will have to work around on their books in what looks like a very important summer of re-signings and other moves.

Milwaukee Bucks

Jevon Carter - $2.2M player option

Carter will likely opt out of this deal, as it’s less than he could make by signing for the veteran minimum. Carter could find more than that from a guard-needy team in free agency. At the very least, he can re-sign with the Bucks for the minimum and do this dance again next summer.

Khris Middleton - $40.4M player option

On one hand, $40.4M is a lot for Middleton to opt out of. This is even more true with the news that he underwent another knee surgery shortly after the season. On the other hand, Middleton is one of the better free agents available this summer. He’ll opt out and recoup this money by signing for less next season, but by adding several years on a new deal. The question: Will that be with the Bucks or someone else?

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nathan Knight - $1.9M team option

Knight is a handy depth piece, and not someone other teams will target in free agency. Much like Xavier Tillman Sr. in Memphis, the Wolves would be smart to pick up their option and worry about unrestricted free agency later.

New Orleans Pelicans

Willy Hernangomez - $2.6M team option

The Pelicans value Hernangomez as a stay-ready center option and as a locker room influence. New Orleans has no realistic shot at cap space, so there’s no reason to not bring back Hernangomez.

Herb Jones - $1.8M team option

Jones is in a bit of a weird spot. He’s worth WAY more than a minimum deal, as an All-Defense level of player. But the Pelicans don’t have to give him that right now. Given how expensive New Orleans’ roster already is, and the fact that Jones can still be a restricted free agent in 2024, look for the Pels to pick up this option and have Jones as one of the best values in the NBA next season.

Naji Marshall - $1.9M team option

Marshall is in a bit of a different spot than Jones. He’ll be unrestricted next summer if New Orleans picks up their option for him this year. He’s improved each year, so exposing him to unrestricted free agency is a bit of a risk. Look for the Pelicans to decline the option, make Marshall a restricted free agent this summer and then to work out a longer deal.

New York Knicks

Josh Hart - $12.9M player option

Hart has one of the NBA’s most unique contracts, in that he can opt in, but his deal then becomes fully non-guaranteed. It’s like an MLB mutual option. But that doesn’t really matter, as Hart has said he plans to opt out. That makes sense, as he’ll get more money and more years on a new deal.

Miles McBride - $1.8M team option

The Knicks will pick up this option for McBride and will bring him back for minimum money. He’s a good third point guard and he’s a value play for a roster that is starting to get expensive.

Derrick Rose - $15.6M team option

Luxury tax concerns will drive the decision to decline Rose’s option for New York. The Knicks are dancing around the tax line, and that’s before re-signing Hart, which they intend to do. That means Rose’s option will be declined. But he could always re-sign for far less money as a free agent, if New York thinks he has anything left.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Lindy Waters III - $1.9M team option

What the Thunder do with Waters’ team option will be a signal for their free agency plans. If they decline it, OKC is probably looking at using their cap space to sign or trade for someone. If they pick it up, they’ll let Waters go into training camp to fight for a spot on a roster that will add Chet Holmgren and another player through the draft.

Orlando Magic

Goga Bitadze - $2.1M team option

The Magic are looking at creating a good amount of cap space. They like Bitadze, but to maximize that space, they need to let him go. He could always return later in free agency.

Michael Carter-Williams - $3.1M team option

It was great to see Carter-Williams make his way back to the NBA after an ankle injury. Orlando might bring him back to compete for a roster spot in training camp, but that will come after declining this option.

Admiral Schofield - $1.9M team option

Schofield earned his callup from a two-way deal, but it may be somewhat short-lived. Again, because of cap space being a priority, Schofield will likely have his option declined. Like Bitadze and Carter-Williams, he could be back to fight for a roster spot in training camp.

Philadelphia 76ers

James Harden - $35.6M player option

Here we go again, but in very different circumstances. Harden pulled a bit of a surprise by opting out and taking less last summer to allow Philadelphia to sign some free agents. This time around, he’s going to opt out to get a max deal. Whether that comes from the Sixers or another team (Houston Rockets?) remains to be seen.

Montrezl Harrell - $2.7M player option

Harrell didn’t see much run for the 76ers. If he wants a bigger role, he’ll probably opt out and move on in free agency. Harrell would also make slightly more in actual salary by signing a new minimum deal with another team.

Phoenix Suns

Ishmail Wainright - $1.9M team option 

Wainright has been better than expected for the Suns. He’s a willing defender, and willing shooter. Unfortunately, he’s not much of a shot-maker. This is truly a 50-50 decision, as Phoenix needs depth and Wainright is at least an NBA-level guy. But the guess here is the Suns decline and take the roster spot for a veteran on the minimum.

Portland Trail Blazers

Kevin Knox - $3M team option

The Blazers won’t pick up Knox’s option. Either they are conserving wiggle room around the tax to put win-now players around Damian Lillard. Or Portland is rebuilding and won’t want the extra money for a non-rotation guy on the books.

Sacramento Kings

Kessler Edwards - $1.8M team option

Edwards will get caught up in which direction the Kings go. They can reasonably create over $21 million in cap space. That could be enough to be a player in free agency. If they plan to re-sign Harrison Barnes and stay over the cap, Edwards’ option probably gets picked up. We’re projecting the latter here.

San Antonio Spurs

No pending options

Toronto Raptors

Gary Trent Jr. - $18.6M player option

Trent is going to opt out and hit free agency as one of the best 3&D options available. He’s a great fit for any of the cap space teams, so look for him to cash in. Toronto could pivot towards a reset, if not rebuild, so Trent may not be a part of their plans either.

Utah Jazz

Jordan Clarkson - $14.3M player option

Clarkson is going to opt out, but that doesn’t mean his time in Utah is over. The Jazz like Clarkson quite a bit, and he enjoys being there. This would be about adding more years to his deal, as he begins his age-31 season.

Rudy Gay - $6.5M player option

Gay is going to pick up his option. He wouldn’t sniff as much money in free agency. Once he opts in, look for Utah to potentially have Gay in a trade package, as they continue rebuilding the roster.

Talen Horton-Tucker - $11M player option

Horton-Tucker could possibly get more by opting out, but it’s not a lock. He’s shown he can play a rotation role, but money is going to dry up quickly, especially for guys who are best in a combo-guard role off the bench. Look for Horton-Tucker to opt in and try to cash in next summer.

Damian Jones - $2.6M player option

Jones will opt in, because he’s a minimum salary guy either way. Might as well take the guaranteed money by opting in. Like Gay, he could be a part of trade packages for Utah.

Washington Wizards

Kyle Kuzma - $13M player option

Kuzma has far outplayed this contract, so he’ll opt out. With the Wizards possibly rebuilding, he’s probably moving on. That’s not a bad thing for Kuzma though, as he’ll be a highly sought-after player as a scoring combo-forward.

Kristaps Porzingis - $36M player option

This one is weird. Had Washington not moved to a new front office, Porzingis probably would have opted out and signed a long-term deal with the Wizards. The buzz now is that Porzingis may opt in and take the guaranteed big salary. At that point, it’s up the Wizards new decision-makers to trade him or not.

The 2020 NBA Draft class is eligible to sign Rookie Scale contract extensions this offseason. Each player has until late-October to agree to an extension. If no agreement is reached, the player will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2024. A handful of players are ineligible to sign an extension, because they had team options declined or were waived at some point during their rookie scale contract.

By pick from that 2020 Draft, here’s where things stand for each player. We’ll make a prediction on what happens before the late-October extension deadline.

For reference: The standard maximum extension (25% of the cap) these players can sign projects to be $207,350,000 over five years. The Designated Rookie Extension amount (30% of the cap) projects to be $248,820,000 over five years. We’re projecting this off a salary cap of $143 million for the 2024-25 season.

In order to qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension, a player must make All-NBA this coming season, or they can also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year this coming season.

#1 Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

Edwards has blossomed into exactly the kind of star you hope to draft first overall. He’s a scoring machine, an improving rebounder and playmaker and he’s getting more efficient. The Wolves are going to have to no choice but to give him a max extension. It’s also likely Edwards will get the Designated Rookie language that could bump him to 30% of the cap too.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

#2 James Wiseman, Detroit Pistons

Wiseman finally found his footing in Detroit after two injury-plagued and inconsistent seasons with the Golden State Warriors. The offensive talent is evident, but the defense needs a lot of work. Given the Pistons also have Jalen Duren at the center spot, this battle royale will extend until next summer. 

Prediction: No extension

#3 LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets 

Ball is the Hornets best player. He’s easily the best thing the woebegone franchise has going for them. He’s an All-Star talent and the kind of guy other players want to play with. Charlotte can’t mess this up by getting cheap. Full max, with the Designated Rookie language should be the play here.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

#4 Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls

Williams has become one of the most underrated players from this class. He’s a good shooter, has shown improvement every season and he’s been durable in two of his three seasons. The Bulls roster and cap sheet are in a bit of a weird place, but they can’t let Williams leave because of that. The new CBA allowing for non-max rookie scale extensions to cover five years could come into play here.

Prediction: Five years, $100,000,000, no options 

#5 Isaac Okoro, Cleveland Cavaliers

Okoro showed real improvement in his third season, and yet it seems like the Cavs still did everything they could to try and replace him with worse-fitting options. Cleveland also has an increasing payroll and Okoro is probably more of a two than a three, and the backcourt spots are spoken for. That seems like a sign that no extension is coming.

Prediction: No extension

#6 Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks

Normally, we’d say the Hawks should lock up Okongwu. But this team has so much long-term salary already committed for a middle-of-the-pack roster. Because of that, Atlanta may need to rebalance the roster a bit before taking care of Okongwu. That means this probably goes to restricted free agency in 2024.

Prediction: No extension

#7 Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons

An extension for Hayes would have to be so incredibly team-friendly that he’s best to bet on himself putting it all together ahead of restricted free agency in 2024. The good news? There are some signs. Just not enough to get an extension.

Prediction: No extension

#8 Obi Toppin, New York Knicks

Toppin’s career has been spent as a low-minutes backup behind Julius Randle. There’s very much still a mystery box quality to his game. He’s flashed when given time, but those flashes aren’t extension-worthy…unless he’s traded ahead of the extension deadline. 

Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded. Then, 4 years, $70,000,000 - seems like a worthy gamble as an upside bet.

#9 Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards

If Avdija could shoot, he’d be a lock for at least an $80 million extension. But he can’t shoot and doesn’t seem to be improving in that phase of the game either. The Wizards have a complicated summer with some key free agents and a new front office making the decisions. They’ll delay this one until restricted free agency in 2024. 

Prediction: No extension.

#10 Jalen Smith, Indiana Pacers 

Smith had his third- and fourth-year options declined by the Phoenix Suns. He was traded to Indiana during the 2021-22 season. Smith then signed a three-year, $15.1 million with the Pacers in the summer of 2022.

#11 Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs

Vassell suffered through an injury-plagued third season, but he improved nearly across the board. The Spurs locked up Keldon Johnson to a value deal last summer and will look to do the same with Vassell. This is another one where the five-year allowance for non-max deals in the CBA could be big.

Prediction: Five years, $115,000,000, no options 

#12 Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

Haliburton is a bona fide star. He’s the Pacers franchise player. He’s every bit as good as LaMelo Ball as young, star point guards. That’ll get him paid, and probably on a deal that includes Designated Rookie language too.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to Five years, $248,820,000, no options

#13 Kira Lewis Jr., New Orleans Pelicans

Lewis has suffered through injuries in his first three seasons and has only appeared in 103 regular season games for the Pels. That’s not enough to extend him, and the guard rotation is pretty stuffed in New Orleans too.

Prediction: No extension

#14 Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers

Nesmith turned in his first healthy season and he played well for the Pacers. He showed some signs of becoming that knockdown shooter he was supposed to be coming out of college. But the Pacers are going to commit big money to Tyrese Haliburton, after extending Myles Turner last summer. And they’ll probably spend some dough in free agency too. That doesn’t leave room to extend Nesmith. 

Prediction: No extension

#15 Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic

Anthony has adapted well to the third-guard role for the Magic. He was solid coming off the bench. But that caps how much you can pay him, especially in a backcourt that features some other talented players too. Unless it’s a team-friendly deal, Orlando probably lets this carry over to the summer of 2024. That could benefit Anthony too, as his market could expand. 

Prediction: No extension

#16 Isaiah Stewart, Detroit Pistons

The Pistons frontcourt is crowded. Isaiah Stewart might be the best of the young bunch, but he probably also has the least upside. His best role seems like it’ll be as an energy big for 20-25 minutes a night on a good team. That’s not something you generally extend a guy for, unless it’s team-friendly. Stewart is better off betting on himself. 

Prediction: No extension

#17 Aleksej Pokusevski, Oklahoma City Thunder 

Pokusevski was figuring this out in his third season and making real progress. Then a fracture in his leg sidelined him for a large chunk of the second half of the season. There won’t be an extension, because the big man will have to show he’s part of the long-term future this upcoming season.

Prediction: No extension

#18 Josh Green, Dallas Mavericks 

Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.

Prediction: Four years, $70,000,000

#19 Saddiq Bey, Atlanta Hawks 

Bey is in a weird spot. The Hawks have a very full roster and a lot of long-term salary on the books. Bey also plays the same position as De’Andre Hunter (already extended) and Jalen Johnson (a year behind on his rookie deal). That probably takes an extension off the board. But re-signing Bey in restricted free agency, depending on how the roster ultimately shakes out, should be on the table. 

Prediction: No extension

#20 Precious Achiuwa, Toronto Raptors

Had Achiuwa’s three-point shooting stayed level, he’d have been a really good extension candidate. But it fell way off, and the Raptors are a team in transition. They’ll probably hold off on signing Achiuwa until they pick a direction with the roster. 

Prediction: No extension

#21 Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers

Maxey has become one of the best scoring guards in the league and he’s done it quickly. He can score both on- and off-ball, which is huge for lineup versatility. He’s easily worth the 25% max, given where the Sixers roster is at and where the cap is heading.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

#22 Zeke Nnaji, Denver Nuggets 

Nnaji is a good player, but he hasn’t been able to keep a rotation role with the Nuggets. He’ll probably have another chance, as the Nuggets backup bigs will cycle this summer. But that’s not enough to get him extended.

Prediction: No extension.

#23 Leandro Bolmaro, out of the NBA 

Bolmaro is out of the NBA after two non-descript seasons. He returned to Spain after a midseason waiver from the Utah Jazz. Bolmaro also signed a year late, so he would haven’t been extension-eligible anyway.

#24 R.J. Hampton, Detroit Pistons 

Hampton was waived by the Orlando Magic before finishing the season with the Pistons. He’s got a non-guaranteed contract for next season with Detroit. Hampton also had his fourth-year option declined, which would have rendered him unable to extend, had he stayed with Orlando.

#25 Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks

Quickley is a really fun player. He’s a scoring machine and a solid defender. He’d probably start for a handful of teams around the NBA. The challenge with the Knicks is that starting him and Jalen Brunson would be a tiny backcourt. That keeps Quickley in a bench role, and that limits his upside contract-wise. But the Knicks would do well to get him signed long-term. Something bridging his current role with his potential makes sense, as New York loves to add incentives into their contracts. 

Prediction: Four years, $84,000,000 with incentives that could bring it up to $90,000,000, no options

#26 Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics 

Pritchard can play, but he got squeezed out in a deep Boston backcourt. He won’t extend unless it’s an overpay, because Pritchard wants to play. And the Celtics aren’t in a spot of overpay anyone, given where their salaries are headed.

Prediction: No extension

#27 Udoka Azubuike, Utah Jazz

Azubuike had his fourth-year team option declined by the Jazz. Given the presence of Walker Kessler on the roster, it’s likely Azubuike will be playing elsewhere next season.

#28 Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves 

McDaniels is very, very good. He’s arguably the best defender of this entire draft class. And he’s a much-improved offensive player. He’s also an ideal big wing to pair with Anthony Edwards long-term. That’s going to get him paid and paid healthily.

Prediction: Four years, $100,000,000, no options

#29 Malachi Flynn, Toronto Raptors

Flynn has had multiple opportunities to take the Raptors backup point guard spot, but injuries and ineffectiveness have kept it from happening. There won’t be an extension here. 

Prediction: No extension

#30 Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies

Bane is the best shooter in his class. He’s also improved greatly as a playmaker and he’s a solid defender. The Grizzlies are very proactive about locking up their own players. Bane is going to be the next one to get paid and he’s probably going to get a max deal too. 

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

2019 Draft Class

Chuma Okeke, Orlando Magic

Okeke signed a year late, after being drafted while recovering from a torn ACL. Thus, he’s extension-eligible this summer. The challenge is that Okeke has really slipped from what was a productive rookie season. He hasn’t shot well, and the rest of his game hasn’t developed much either.

Prediction: No extension

The NBA announced the All-NBA teams for the 2022-23 season on Wednesday. As always, it’s an honor for any player to be named All-NBA. For a handful of players, the honor (or lack thereof for one) had some major contractual implications too.

(Please Note: All contracts referenced here are estimates/projections. The NBA salary cap is in a bit of an unpredictable place with both a new CBA in place and a new media rights deal coming soon.)

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown being named to his first All-NBA team (he was on the Second Team) earned him a nice immediate bonus, while being a boon to his long-term earning potential as well.

For this season, Brown getting named All-NBA maxed out his somewhat complex bonus set. Brown’s incentives are broken up into two parts. The first part is related to his games played and team success. Brown had already achieved the maximum of just over $1 million for that section.

The second part of Brown’s incentives are an either/or scenario of postseason awards and team success. None of them can stack upon one another, but he had different paths to earning the full bonus amount. Brown had already achieved a portion of this second incentive by making the All-Star team, but he got 100% of this section by being named All-NBA. This earned Brown about $2.1 million in additional incentives.

Added together, Brown earned roughly $3.1 million in total bonuses for this season. That sees his salary number rise from $26.7 million to $29.8 million for this past year. In addition, Brown’s cap hit for the 2023-24 season will now be at $31.8 million, as his bonuses are now deemed likely. (A bonus is deemed “likely” or “unlikely” based on the simple formula of “Did it happen last year?” If the bonus was achieved, it’s likely. If not, it’s unlikely.)

While congratulations are in order for Jaylen Brown for the All-NBA nod and the extra $3.1 million earned, there are now bigger fish to fry.

As we covered previously, Brown had major stakes for his next contract by making All-NBA. We won’t rehash that entire article, but by being named All-NBA, Brown is now eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, or the so-called Super Max. That contract projects to look like this:

• 2024-25: $50,050,000
• 2025-26: $54,054,000
• 2026-27: $58,058,000
• 2027-28: $62,062,000
• 2028-29: $66,066,000
• Total: five years, $290,290,000

Boston is now eligible to offer Brown a deal starting at 35% of the salary cap vs 30% of the cap, by virtue of the All-NBA honor. That deal would come with 8% raises, and would likely include some form of player option on the final season.

It’s important to note that this deal would start with the 2024-25 season, as Brown still has one more season under contract with the Celtics. Should Brown turn down the Designated Veteran Extension (or in the unlikely scenario Boston doesn’t offer it), he can sign a four-year deal with another team in the summer of 2024. That contract projects to look like this:

• 2024-25: $42,900,000
• 2025-26: $45,045,000
• 2026-27: $47,190,000
• 2027-28: $49,335,000
• Total: four years, $184,470,000

That’s a pretty significant difference, even if you compare four-year to four-year values. That’s about $40 million over the same four-year period.

One last note (and this will come up with another player!): Brown can only get the Super Max from the Celtics. You can only offer a Super Max extension to a player you drafted or a player that you acquired while they were on their rookie deal. In addition, if Brown signs a Designated Veteran Extension, he’d have a one-year trade restriction from the date of signing.

Jayson Tatum

We’re going to keep this one simple, as Jayson Tatum still has at least two years left on the rookie scale extension he signed with the Celtics a couple of years ago. That means he’s not extension-eligible until the summer of 2024 and that extension would then start with the 2025-26 season.

Because he’s now made All-NBA the last two years, Tatum is already eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension. One of the criteria is to make All-NBA for two of the previous three seasons (or the one season prior), meaning Tatum has met that marker, no matter what happens in the 2023-24 season.

Tatum’s projected Super Max extension looks like this:

• 2025-26: $53,198,250
• 2026-27: $57,454,110
• 2027-28: $61,709,970
• 2028-29: $65,965,830
• 2029-30: $70,221,690
• Total: five years, $308,549,850

That’s 35% of the cap with 8% raises. Like with Brown, the final season would likely be a player option. In addition, to sign this full five-year extension, Tatum would need to first decline his current player option for the 2025-26 season.

Ja Morant

This past summer, Ja Morant signed a Designated Rookie Extension, or so-called Rose Rule extension. (It’s a bit more complicated than that, but the terms have become used interchangeably.) That contract could have seen Morant jump from 25% of the cap to the 30% of the cap tier, had he been named All-NBA.

As Morant didn’t make any of the three All-NBA teams, he’ll now stay at the 25% of the cap tier. That contract projects to look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

Had Morant made All-NBA, his deal would have jumped to $233.2 million over five years.

For what’s it worth, Darius Garland and Zion Williamson both had similar conditions in their deals. However, neither had a realistic chance of being named All-NBA for this past season. Interestingly enough, none of Morant, Garland or Williamson have a player option on the final seasons of their max extensions with Memphis, Cleveland and New Orleans, respectively.

Domantas Sabonis

Like Jaylen Brown, being named All-NBA was quite profitable for Domantas Sabonis. He had already earned $1.3 million by being an All-Star this past season, and he added an additional $1.3 million by making All-NBA.

For this current season, that sees Sabonis’ salary jump from his base of $18.5 million to $21.1 million. For next season, as both of his bonuses are now considered likely, Sabonis’ cap hit will go from $19.4 million to $22 million.

Unfortunately, unlike Brown and Jayson Tatum, Sabonis is not eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension. Because the Sacramento Kings acquired Sabonis while he was on his second (current) contract, they can’t offer him a Super Max extension. Those are reserved for players drafted by or acquired by the team while still on their rookie contracts.

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Updated: 4/3/23 @ 2:45pm

More “Super Tax” Penalties

What Is It:

There are going to be even more penalties on teams that exceed what we’re going to now call the “Super Tax”, which is the second tax apron at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. These penalties include: not being able to send cash out in trade, restrictions on when they can trade first-round picks, not being able to sign players on the buyout market and not being able to take on salary in trades.

Analysis:

The league is doing what they can to curb the spending of the most expensive teams. We already covered some of the potentially unintended consequences, but here’s another set to consider.

If you can’t add salary via a trade, will we see a $20 million player given a $30 million, simply so a team could trade him for a $25 million player? That’s one way to start working around it. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, because the player benefits. But it could be a workaround for teams. And NBA teams are really good at figuring out workarounds with the cap and CBA.

Players are allowed to invest in NBA and WNBA teams, as well as partner with gambling and cannabis companies.

What Is It:

This one is pretty straight forward. Or, it seems to be, at least. Players will be able to become more partners with teams, as opposed to contract employees. And players will be able to branch out and become partners with business that were previously prohibited.

Analysis:

Investing in the NBA and WNBA is a great idea. If you’re invested, you’re likely to do more to grow your product and your team. That should be a rising tide lifts all boats scenario.

Partnering with gambling companies is a little more of a slippery slope. If it’s simply “Hey! I’m Player X! Do your betting with Company Y!” then it’s fine. If it becomes “Hey! I’m Player X! Bet on me to score over 20 points tonight!” then things could get really messy. When we have full details, it seems likely we’ll find out it’s more like the former than the latter.

We didn’t touch on it previously, so we will here…marijuana is no longer a prohibited substance in the new CBA. With where things are headed, as more and more of the country legalizes marijuana use, that makes sense. And if it’s not a prohibited substance, why can’t a player endorse it? This is common sense in action.

Revenue from licensing will be added to the Basketball Related Income (BRI) calculation

What Is It:

Previously, any money the NBA itself or NBA teams made from licensing agreements went directly to the owners. The players will now get a share of that, through the BRI process.

Analysis:

This seems like a no-brainer. The NBA and its teams have no value without the players. If you’re going to license your logos or team names to be used somewhere, the players should get a cut of that.

Second Round Pick Signing Exception

What Is It:

Teams will now have an exception to sign their second-round picks. In today’s world, if a team wants to sign a player selected in the second round to more than the two-year, minimum salary deal allowed by the minimum exception, they have limited ways to do so. They can give the player come of their cap space, if they are a room team. Or they can carve out a portion of their Mid-Level Exception to sign the player. Now, they’ll be able to sign their second-round picks to deals without having to give up cap space or part of their MLE.

Analysis:

This is a good change. As much as we’ve all enjoyed picking on the Los Angeles Lakers for bungling this time and time again, this will help everyone. Teams are helped because they can use their full MLE, or full cap space, to sign veterans, while also still signing second-round players. Veteran players don’t lose out on a chunk of money, because teams had to conserve that space to sign second-round players.

Unanswered questions: Is this one exception per team per season? Is this allowable for any second-round pick, without restrictions? Can you still use cap space or a different exception to give the player even more salary or a longer deal? Those will all get answered when we have the actual CBA.

10% Cap Smoothing

What Is It:

In order to avoid another cap spike like in 2016, when the cap went from $70 million to $94.1 million, the NBA will smooth those increases. This is likely to matter most in 2025, when the first season with the new media rights deals will begin.

Analysis:

This is a good thing. Now that the NBA and NBPA have a better working relationship, they can trust that no one will get cheated out of money. A cap spike ends up disproportionately impacting that one year’s free agent class. They benefit greatly, while following free agent classes are often less with less money, because everyone capped out the year prior.

Smoothing in this increase will allow for fewer massive contracts that immediately turn sour. And it will spread the wealth amongst several free agent classes.

Elimination of Designated Player Roster Restrictions

What Is It:

Under the current CBA, teams are limited in how many Designated Players they can have on their roster at a given time. Currently, teams are limited to two Designated Rookie Scale Extension players and two Designated Veteran Players. In addition, team could only have one Designated Player that they acquired via trade. These restrictions are being eliminated moving forward.

Analysis:

As with a lot of these changes, things are being set up to allow teams greater flexibility in retaining their own players. This change is another good one. Simply because you hit on three, or more, draft picks over a period of time, you shouldn’t be punished for wanting to re-sign all of them for the most you can. This removes that, while still putting in the “Super Tax” caveats that restrict team building, should your team get too expensive.

MLE and Room Exception to increase in size

What Is It:

The Non-Taxpayer MLE is expected to increase by 7.5%, while the Room Exception is expected to increase by 30%. It’s expected that these increases are on top of how much these exceptions will have increased in correlation with how much the cap increases.

Analysis:

This is another good change, as these exceptions will become even more valuable tools for those non-taxpaying teams. One unanswered question: Is this a one-time releveling, and then things will go back to the standard increase with as the cap increases? Or will this be phased in over a period of time?

Teams will be able to use signing exceptions as trade exceptions

What Is It:

In today’s world, a team can only use their MLE to sign a player to a contract. The only way to acquire a player via trade is to match salary in a deal, or to acquire them using a Traded Player Exception (TPE)

Analysis:

This is also a good change. It allows teams increased flexibility in how they can build their rosters. Anything that allows for more ways to build a roster is for the better.

Luxury Tax bands/brackets will increase and expand

What Is It:

Currently, the luxury tax bands run from $1 dollar over the tax to $5 million then to $10 million to $15 million and $20 million. Those bands were set at a time when the salary cap was roughly $58 million. The cap and tax lines have doubled, but the bands have remained the same.

Analysis:

Another good change. Adding $5 million to your team salary was essentially one signing. That was often true with $10 million. That could mean jumping one or two bands by adding just one player. The penalties for adding even that relatively small amount of salary were out of balance with the actual impact. This change was long overdue, as the bands were outdated and needed changing. As with a lot of other items, we don’t yet have the details to what the new bands will be, and how they will be phased in over a period of time.

This is also a nice balancer for those “Super Tax” teams. They’re already restricted as to how they can build their roster, hitting them with even more of a tax penalty feels overly punitive at this point.

Players who attend Draft Combine must undergo physicals that will be shared with teams

What Is It:

Currently, most top draft prospects attend the NBA Draft Combine. Very few of them work out at the combine, but are instead there to interview with teams. Some also will do physicals and medical reviews, but that’s something a player can opt out of, and many do. Now, players who attend the combine will be required to do a physical. Those results then will be shared with teams, based on that player’s draft projection.

Analysis:

This is good, but not good enough. Drafting a player in the NBA is a hope that you are entering into a relationship that will last for more than a decade. For many teams, a “bad” medical or no medical at all, will take that player off that team’s draft board. There’s simply too much risk involved. This is helping to change that

Why is this change not good enough? For one, whose projections are being used with which teams to share physical information with? Why not just share it with all teams? This is especially true considering teams can trade up.

Another concern is that this could simply cause players to skip the combine entirely. They can then control the draft process, at least as much as possible, by only meeting with, working out for and having a physical done by certain teams.

Restricted Free Agency changes

What Is It:

Qualifying offers will reportedly increase by 10%, while the time a team has to match an offer sheet will decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours.

Analysis:

This is another good set of changes. The 10% increase in qualifying offer amount could make that enticing enough that a player who doesn’t like his contract proposal from his incumbent team might opt for the one-year deal via the qualifying offer. This is opposed to simply sitting in restricted free agency, while money and jobs dry up around the league. It gives players another reasonable option to control their future contracts.

The decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours is just common sense. With today’s technology, teams can be notified of a signed offer sheet within moments of it being signed. And teams generally know if they are going to match or not, long before any offer sheet comes.

Non-max Rookie Scale Extensions allowed to have fifth season

What Is It:

Analysis:

Original Post: 4/1/23 @ 10:30am

The NBA and NBPA have reached an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement. This agreement came after both sides agreed to push back their mutual opt-out deadline several times. In the end, in the early morning hours of April 1, the NBA will continue a long run of labor peace.

The agreement will carry through the next seven seasons, from 2023-24 through 2029-30. Once again, both sides hold mutual opt-outs after the sixth season of the agreement.

As it’s still early in the process, details on the new agreement are still being filtered out. Here’s what we know so far:

In-Season Tournament

What it is: 

Adam Silver’s long-wanted in-season tournament will be added, possibly as soon as next season. All NBA teams will take part in the tournament, with pool play and early-round games in the season’s opening months doubling as regular season games. The final four teams will meet at a neutral site to crown the champion.

Analysis: 

The in-season tournament was coming, like it or not. Teams will initially prioritize it as much as they do any regular season game. Over time, it’s likely that winning the tournament will become a thing. If you put a trophy in front of competitive people, they want to win it.

Oh, and a $500,000 per player prize is pretty good too. No, the max players won’t really care all that much. But for the guys on a minimum deal, that’s a pretty nice bonus. That’ll make the stars want to win it, as much as claiming the trophy or the prize money for themselves.

Load Management Provisions

What it is: 

In order for players to eligible for major postseason awards, such as MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA, they will have to appear in at least 65 games. There are to-be-announced conditions where a player could miss more than 17 games and remain eligible for awards.

Analysis:

A 65-game threshold is roughly 79% of the schedule. That feels like a reasonable and, more importantly, attainable marker. With most teams now playing between 12 and 16 back-to-back games per season, this still allows for resting players on the nights they are most likely to miss anyway.

Does this solve everything? No. But given that players want the individual recognition of the awards (and for some, the financial benefits that come along with it!), and teams promote players for individual awards, this should get the main guys on the court at least a little more often.

A potential downside is that teams could start a player, and then simply sub that player out at the earliest opportunity. That makes a farce of the entire thing and it’s something the NBA will not want to see.

Standard Veteran Extension Increase

What is it: 

The standard Veteran Extension salary increase will rise from 120% to 140%.

Analysis: 

Let’s use Jaylen Brown as an example here, since he’s prominently in the news. Under the current CBA, Brown would be eligible for a 120% raise. That would make his total extension in the range of four years and $170.5 million.

With a 140% raise, Brown would go up to his maximum salary amount. That would cap him at about $192.2 million over that same four-year period. That’s a fairly impactful amount, even if Brown would probably prefer to see if he makes All-NBA this season or next season and qualifies for the Super Max, which could pay him in excess of $290 million over five years, or $224 million over the same four-year period.

So, for a currently near-max player like Brown, this at least gets him in the territory of what he could sign for in free agency. For a not near-max, breakout player like Domantas Sabonis or Kyle Kuzma, the increase probably still isn’t enough to get them to bite.

This feels like a good fix, but more for vets who are established as non-max players without a ton of contractual upside. They’ll probably get a little more money now.

For the true stars of the NBA, this didn’t go far enough. There’s no real reason to keep a team and player from extending for their max salary when they are eligible to do so. A better solution might have been to say you can offer the current 120% (or maybe even bumped that slightly) or you can offer the player the max. That still leaves agency for both the teams and players to make a real decision.

Second Luxury Tax Apron

What is it: 

The new CBA will see the addition of a second luxury tax apron, set at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. This new apron will make it so that the league’s most expensive teams will no longer have access to the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. That exception is currently available to any teams that are above the current tax apron (roughly $6 million above the tax line), unless they are hard capped.

Analysis: 

This feels like a bit of a band-aid, but an impactful band-aid nonetheless. It’s not a true “upper spending limit”, which several teams and players were adamantly against. Most seasons, somewhere between four and six teams will be impacted. Since spending is generally not a worry for those teams, that means somewhere between four and six players will likely have to sign a minimum deal, as opposed to the Taxpayer MLE, that will be over $7 million next season.

Those very expensive teams will still be able to add salary via minimum deals and via trades. They’ll have to get a bit more creative in how they build their rosters. It will help keep them from outspending some opponents by hundreds of millions in total salary plus tax penalties.

But some players are going to lose out here. That doesn’t seem great. This is one we’ll have to measure for a few years to get a real understanding of how this impacted teams and players.

Third Two-Way Roster Spot

What is it: 

This one is pretty simple, as there will be a third Two-Way spot added to rosters. Teams can currently sign two players to Two-Way deals for a length of up to two seasons.

Analysis: 

The NBA wants the G League to be a viable minor league system. This increases that, while still giving players flexibility and not locking them into minor league contracts.

By tying up to three players to the NBA club, the Affiliate team is strengthened and that’s good for the overall health of the G League. It’s also a great development opportunity for players and teams. Several players have emerged from Two-Way contracts to become regular NBA rotation players. This includes Jose Alvarado, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and Austin Reaves.

One downside to this is that it doesn’t appear NBA roster sizes are increasing in the offseason. Teams are allowed to bring up to 20 players to training camp. With 15 players on standard contracts and now up to three on Two-Way deals, that leaves openings for only two camp signings.

In addition, we’ve seen some teams choose to leave roster spots open more often, and for longer periods of time, because they can backfill with their Two-Way players. This could have the unintended (or perhaps intended?) consequence of some players missing out on standard contracts to fill out NBA benches.

No Change To “One-and-Done” Rules

What it is: 

US-born players will still need to be a year removed from their high school graduation in order to be draft eligible. That means players will still need to attend college, or sign with a non-NBA professional team, before entering the NBA Draft.

Analysis: 

Teams didn’t want to have to scout high school players again. That would have added a major increase to staffs and workload across the league. And it would have meant scouting many, many players who have no shot at the NBA.

Players didn’t really want the one-and-done rule changes, because for each extra player you let in the league, that’s one less spot for a veteran. The NBPA was adamant about protecting veteran players and their roster spots. Not allowing players to come in from high school helps to accomplish that.

For the players coming out of high school, the advent of NIL deals being available to them, allows them to begin earning money right away. This is in addition to professional opportunities with the G League Ignite, Overtime Elite and overseas, which have become paths to the NBA for several players in recent years.

What We Don’t Know Yet

There are a lot of items we don’t have details on yet. This includes:

• Cap smoothing: Will this happen or not? If not, we’ll see another major cap spike when the new media rights deals hit. That’s something both sides were initially eager to avoid.
• Luxury tax bands: The luxury tax bands, and the related penalties, only rise by $5 million per band now. Were those bands enlarged at all?
• Extend-and-trade rules: With the standard Veteran Extension rules being adjusted, were the very restrictive extend-and-trade rules changed at all?
• Trade requests/demands: Was anything done to prevent trade requests or demands? There was a lot of blustering about this being a problem, but was anything done to try to fix it?
• Changes to rosters: Are there more changes beyond the addition of the third Two-Way spot?
• Expansion details: Was anything changed as far as expansion goes? It seems like expansion is inevitable, perhaps in the life of this new CBA.

(This post will be updated as more details are known about the new CBA.)

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Around Christmastime of 2013, it was fair to wonder if the now Brooklyn Nets were dealing with some sort of “good, but never good enough” curse from leaving New Jersey or something. In their first season in Brooklyn, the Nets made the 2013 playoffs. They were eliminated in a competitive playoff series against the Chicago Bulls, but the things were looking bright.

In the summer of 2013, the Nets added Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the mix, alongside All-Stars Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. That 2013-14 team squeaked by the Toronto Raptors in seven games, but was bounced in relatively easy fashion by the Miami Heat in the second round. By the 2015 playoffs, the Nets were bowing out again the first round and the supposed super team was broken up and a rebuild was in order.

Most of the criticism for the failure of those “can’t miss” Nets gets lumped at the feet aging stars Garnett, Pierce and Johnson, with plenty saved for Williams. But a forgotten part of that whole letdown was Brook Lopez.

Essentially a decade later, it’s easy to forget how big a part of that team Lopez was supposed to be. After playing in just five games during the 2011-12 season, the Nets last in New Jersey, Lopez became an All-Star in 2013. Johnson and Williams were the stars, but Lopez was the Nets best player when they debuted in Brooklyn.

The next season, in Year 1 of the super team Nets, Lopez was on the shelf by Christmas and the Nets were good, but not good enough. Lopez bounced back with three more solid seasons for Brooklyn, but the now-rebuilding Nets didn’t have a need for him as he approached 30, and shuttled him off to the Los Angeles Lakers.

After one OK season in Hollywood, the Lakers let Lopez walk for nothing. He was 30, coming off a down year and had that history of serious leg and foot injuries. When Lopez signed with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018 for just the $3.4 million Bi-Annual Exception, it was seen a flyer for the Bucks.

That flyer has turned out to be one of the best signings, and subsequent re-signings, the NBA has seen over the past five years, in terms of contract, production and winning.

Now, Lopez’s second contract with the Bucks, a four-year, $52 million bargain deal, is coming to an end. Somewhat shockingly, at 35 years old, Lopez is poised to cash in again as a free agent, just like he did in 2015. Let’s take a look at Lopez’s options.

The Veteran Extension

Because he’s in the final season of his contract, Lopez will be extension-eligible all the way through June 30. He can sign a veteran extension with the Bucks that would normally look like the following:

• 2023-24: $16,688,371
• 2024-25: $18,023,441
• 2025-26: $19,358,511
• 2026-27: $20,693,581
• Total: four years, $74,763,904

That’s a 120% bump over Lopez’s current salary of $13.9 million with 8% raises. But, there’s a complicating factor at play here for Lopez in any sort of four-year contract, and that’s the Over-38 rule.

Because Lopez would be 38 years old at the start of the 2026-27 season, the Over-38 rule would be triggered in this type of extension. It doesn’t prevent the Bucks from signing Lopez to a Veteran Extension, but in this case, the extension would be functionally a three-year deal, because of the cap of a 120% raise off this season’s salary.

In effect, Lopez would be limited to the following in an extension:

• 2023-24: $16,688,371
• 2024-25: $18,023,441
• 2025-26: $19,358,511
• Total: three years, $54,070,323

That’s still a 120% bump off of this year’s salary of $13.9 million, with 8% raises on the following two seasons.

Because of the way the Over-38 rule handles deferred salary, the Bucks would have to push any salary from Year 4 onto Years 1-3. In this case, Year 1 has a cap of 120% raise or the roughly $16.7 million. So, there’s no further room to push that salary up, which eliminates a fourth year.

Now, there is an additional factor at play here, which involves the way a “zero year” (a year with no cap hit) is handled in an Over-38 contract. The Bucks could get creative and sign Lopez to a four-year extension worth almost the same amount. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $16,688,371 cap hit = $12,233,381 actual salary + $4,454,990 deferred salary
• 2024-25: $17,534,513 cap hit = $12,845,050 actual salary + $4,689,463 deferred salary
• 2025-26: $18,380,655 cap hit = $13,456,719 actual salary + $4,923,936 deferred salary
• 2026-27: $0 cap hit - $14,068,388 actual salary + $0 deferred salary
• Total: four years, $52,603,538

The benefit in this case for the Bucks is that if they were in a position where they ever needed to waive and stretch Lopez, they could do so based on having an extra year in the contract. However, the cap hits would increase each year, while Lopez would be sacrificing about $1.4 million in total money.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent

It’s hard to envision Brook Lopez leaving Milwaukee at this point. He’s been there for five years now, and five very good years at that. The Bucks can offer him up to his max of $46,900,000 in first-year salary. For a reference point, here’s the max deal Lopez can get from Milwaukee:

• • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $50,652,000
  • 2025-26: $54,404,000
  • Total: three years, $151,956,000

That’s the full 35% of the projected $134 million cap with 8% raises. As covered above, the Over-38 rule functionally limits Milwaukee to a three-year deal for Lopez, but especially so if they did anything approaching a max deal (however unlikely that may be).

Re-signing with another team as a free agent

Hard is may be to envision, let’s say Lopez leaves Milwaukee this summer. This is the max an opposing team could pay Lopez:

• • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $49,245,000
  • 2025-26: $51,590,000
  • Total: three years, $147,735,000

That’s the same first-year salary at 35% of the projected $134 million cap, but with 5% raises. Same as an extension with Milwaukee or re-signing with the Bucks, the Over-38 rule would come into play with another team, effectively eliminating a fourth year.

Summary

Brook Lopez is in a very interesting place. Sure, he’s about to be 35 years old, and the thought of handing any player at that age a ton of money is a bit scary. But, outside of a back issue last season, Lopez has been very durable for the entirety of his five-year Milwaukee tenure.

Lopez is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate this season. And he’s averaging 15.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Those are all the highest averages Lopez has had since his final year with the Nets in 2016-17. It’s not a career-year, because Lopez used to be a All-Star, but it’s a late-career rebound of sorts.

A major factor is Lopez’s perfect fit in the Bucks ecosystem. He’s become the preeminent stretch-5, non-Karl-Anthony Towns division, in the NBA. His shooting helps open the floor for Giannis Antetokounmpo. And teams can’t stash a small on Lopez, because he’s still very willing to mash them in the post.

Defensively, Lopez is the key to the Bucks drop defense. He anchors everything for Milwaukee, and you can see and feel the difference when he’s off the floor. Even when Lopez isn’t directly blocking shots, he’s altering them and forcing misses.

If Lopez was 25 years old vs 35 years old, he’d be a no-brainer max player. It wouldn’t even be a question. But he is 35 years old. And Lopez does have some injury history to at least be cognizant of.

We can start by eliminating any kind of four-year extension or four-year new deal this summer. The Over-38 complications make it simply not worth it.

We can also eliminate anything approaching the max. As good as Lopez is, no one is handing a max deal to a center of his age.

The three-year veteran extension feels about right. It would come with an $18 million AAV, and that’s pretty reasonable for Lopez. However, if you’re the Bucks, you might prefer he hits free agency and you can sign him to a slightly bigger deal in terms of first-year salary for next season, but have it descend each of the following two seasons.

That deal could look something like this:

• 2023-24: $19,600,000
• 2024-25: $18,032,000
• 2025-26: $16,464,000
• Total: three years, $54,096,000

That would be the maximum allowable 8% declines per season. It comes in roughly at the same amount as the three-year Veteran Extension, but as Lopez’s play presumably falls off, his impact on the cap sheet would decrease too.

For Milwaukee, they have another factor to consider too. This roster is getting expensive! The Bucks already have $114 million committed to the roster for six players for next season. Khris Middleton is highly likely to opt out of his deal, as he’ll be one of the best free agents available this summer.

That’s a lot of roster spots to fill, and that’s without factoring in new deals for Middleton and Lopez. This season, the Bucks are more than $28 million into the luxury tax. If they re-sign both Middleton and Lopez, and fill out the roster with reasonably projected deals for some other pending free agents, Milwaukee will be deep into the tax again next season. And that will probably carry over for at least a season or two after that.

If keeping the immediate tax bill down is a factor, the Bucks will likely be looking for Brook Lopez to do a deal in the range of what he can get via the Veteran Extension. Ideally, they might be able to even get somewhat of a hometown discount, maybe something in the range of three-years, $45 million?

If the goal is to keep the tax bill down in future years, when the repeater tax will become a factor, Milwaukee would be better off front-loading a new deal for Lopez in free agency. That would be costly this year, but helpful when the 2025 and 2026 tax bills come due. Of course, if Middleton were to leave, the Bucks would have considerably more flexibility with what they could offer Lopez and the structure they could use.

Brook Lopez has found a home in Milwaukee. He’s a perfect fit there and seemingly happy there. That presumably gives the Bucks somewhat of an advantage on keeping their big man home. But coming off a great late-career season, Milwaukee can’t expect too much of a hometown discount. Expect Lopez to land a deal that pays him between $15 and $18 million AAV, with the structure of the deal telling us a lot about both the Bucks immediate and future plans.