The Washington Wizards are continuing to wheel and deal. The new front office swung an early trade by sending Bradley Beal to the Suns for Chris Paul. The Wizards followed that up by sending Kristaps Porzingis to the Boston Celtics in a three-team trade that also featured the Memphis Grizzlies.

But the Wizards are far from done. Chris Paul’s stay in the capital won’t last very long. In fact, it won’t even really happen, as Washington is sending Chris Paul to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for Jordan Poole. Here are the parameters of the deal:

Wizards acquire

Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick, 2027 second-round pick

Warriors acquire

Chris Paul

The Mechanics

The trade that will send Chris Paul, however briefly, to Washington, must take place before June 30 to be cap legal. When the new restrictions on salary-matching in trades for super tax teams kick in come July 1 with the new CBA, the Wizards and Suns wouldn’t be able to work a deal. At least not as easily as they have.

This trade, in the exact opposite way, must wait until after July 1 (really until noon Eastern on July 6 when the moratorium ends) to be legal. The reason for that is that Jordan Poole’s extension doesn’t kick in until July 1. Until that point, he’d be subject the poison pill. That means his deal wouldn’t be large enough, even with the inclusion of Rollins, to match salary for Paul.

That means Chris Paul will be a member of the Wizards for about two weeks or so, while probably never leaving the west coast the entire time.

The Wizards

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $29,675,221
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $30,800,000
Difference: -$1,124,779

Washington is continuing to reshape their roster. In effect, they split Bradley Beal’s contract in half by acquiring Jordan Poole. And they picked up a couple of picks in the process. That’s not bad work, even if it does eat into some of the incredible cap flexibility the Wizards had achieved by trading Beal and Kristaps Porzingis.

Despite coming off a down year, Poole is a good player. He lost some of his efficiency last season with the Warriors, as he seemingly struggled to readapt to being a bench player. Poole seems like the kind of player who needs to be right in it, vs heating up quickly off the bench.

With Washington, Poole projects to be their primary offensive option. At this point, we have no real idea what the Wizards roster will look like around Poole, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll have anyone better than he is offensively. That’ll mean a lot of shots and points, and a good number of assists, but his shooting percentages and overall efficiency may suffer.

Rollins is being painted as a throw-in to this deal, but he has talent. His rookie season was mostly a wash due to a foot injury, but Rollins flashed at times. In nine games in the G League, he showed the same knack for shooting and scoring that he showed in his two seasons at Toledo. He’ll probably get a chance to play on this rebuilding Washington team.

The Wizards are also getting a first-round pick from the Warriors that will convey long after Golden State’s golden era will have wrapped up. It’s top-20 protected, so the upside is fairly limited, but it’s another asset in a growing pile for the Wizards.

As for the cap, we said Washington basically split Beal’s salary in half by acquiring Poole. That takes some flexibility away, compared to taking back no long-term money. Poole is owed $125 million over the next four seasons, with salaries ranging from $27.9 million for next season to $34.5 million in his final season. But that’s not the end of the world.

When we wrote up the Porzingis’ trade, we made note that the Wizards could create up to $100 million in cap space next summer. That’s now down to about $70 million or so. Spending $100 million in a single summer, for a rebuilding team, was unlikely. So, Washington takes a chance that Poole will rediscover his game as a primary guy, in exchange for some likely unspendable cap space. And, who knows? Maybe Poole will get traded at some point too.

The Warriors

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $30,800,000
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $29,675,221
Difference: $1,124,779

Chris Paul was once Enemy #1 of Warriors fans. Now, Dubs fans will be hoping he can help them extend their title contention window by at least one more year.

On the court, this trade gives Golden State the best backup guard to Stephen Curry that they’ve ever had. And Curry and Paul will share the floor plenty too. Paul is slowing down and not the dominant, game-controlling force he once was. But he’s still plenty good. In fact, Paul is overqualified for the role Golden State is going to put him in.

And that’s a good thing.

Paul’s issue at this point is his workload. He can’t hold up playing 30-plus minutes per game over a full season. With the Warriors, Paul will likely be down around 20 minutes per game, and he’ll be able to sit when he needs to. And if Curry suffers another untimely injury, Paul can step up and more than capably fill in.

But as great as The Point God is, this trade was heavily influenced by the new CBA. The Warriors were seen as the primary reason (with the LA Clippers coming in second) for the new super tax restrictions in the incoming CBA. Golden State had a lot of long-term money on their books after extending both Poole and Andrew Wiggins last summer. And they’re looking to re-sign Draymond Green this summer, after he just opted out of his deal too. Add it up, and the NBA’s most expensive team was going to remain at that level for the foreseeable future. And that meant little wiggle room for building out the roster.

That meant something had to break and someone had to go. That someone ended up being Jordan Poole. If Paul is out of the picture after one season (his $30 million contract is fully non-guaranteed for 2024-25), the Warriors will have cut $97 million in guaranteed salary off their books. That will help create a little flexibility moving forward, as Golden State tries to keep that title window pried open for the next few years.

One last benefit for the Warriors: they kept Chris Paul from joining division and conference rivals in Los Angeles with the Lakers and Clippers. Those two teams were considered the front-runners to get Paul, either via trade or in free agency. Now, both teams are left to figure out other options at the lead guard spot.

(UPDATED version of a previous article after the trade was adjusted)

The NBA offseason is off and running! The Washington Wizards got things started by agreeing to trade Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns, and now they’re continuing their teardown. Washington has agreed to the parameters of a three-team trade with the Boston Celtics and the Memphis Grizzlies. Here are the basics:

Celtics Acquire
Kristaps Porzingis, #25 pick in 2023 Draft, future Golden State Warriors first-round pick

Grizzlies Acquire
Marcus Smart

Wizards Acquire
Danilo Gallinari, Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, #35 pick in 2023 Draft

(Note: If deal terms change significantly, we’ll update the article accordingly.)

The Mechanics

Much like the trade of Bradley Beal to Phoenix, this is a deal that needs to happen in the current league year. Because both Boston is close to the super tax line, it was far easier to make this trade happen now.

For the Wizards, their part is again fairly easy. They’re trading out the $36 million owed to Kristaps Porzingis (he’ll have to opt in for next season to make this deal possible) and taking back about $24.3 million. Washington will create a Traded Player Exception (TPE) of about $11.7 million in this deal.

For Boston, they need to get this deal done in this league year. Doing so allows them to use the salary-matching rules that allow them to bring in 125% of the outgoing salary. That’s Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala in this case. Acquiring the 25th pick in the 2023 Draft comes with $0 as far as salary-matching goes, but it does push Boston a bit closer to super tax.

The Grizzlies also take on some money here by swapping Tyus Jones for Marcus Smart, but they would have been fine to complete this deal now or later. The main push for Memphis to get this deal now is clarity around the draft.

The Celtics

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $38,639,880
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $29,219,996
Difference: $9,419,884

Boston was always going to do something this offseason. After falling short in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics were searching for that move to put them over the top. All signs pointed to Malcolm Brogdon being traded, and he was until the LA Clippers backed out of the deal. Instead, the longest-tenured Celtic, and the team’s heart and soul, were sent out.

Kristaps Porzingis is an excellent fit for the Celtics on both ends of the floor. He’s coming off the best season of his eight-year career. Porzingis also turns 28 years old this summer, and is entering what should be the prime years of his career.

On offense, Porzingis gives Boston another stretch big. In many ways, think of him as the Celtics replacement for Grant Williams, who played a key role off the Boston bench for the last few years. Porzingis won’t come off the bench, but he’ll have a somewhat similar, if greatly expanded, role in Boston’s offense.

Porzingis is a 36% shooter from three for his career. This past season, he knocked down 38.5% of his three-pointers on 356 attempts. Not only is Porzingis a good shooter, and a volume one, but he has some of the deepest range in the NBA.

Because Porzingis was rarely stationed as a pure spot-up guy, the vast majority of his three-point attempts came from above the break. On those looks, he knocked down 38.1%. On shots from 25 to 29 feet (deeper threes), Porzingis retained his effectiveness by hitting 38.3% of his triples. That sort of deep range will open up the floor for the Celtics in ways they haven’t seen yet. That will create driving lanes for Boston’s host of off-the-dribble playmakers and scorers.

That shooting, combined with Porzingis’ ability to take players down into the post, and to finish as roll man, should make him the sort of lethal third scorer the Celtics haven’t had over the last few years. He’s not the passer that Boston’s other bigs are, but there are some signs that he can do more as a facilitator than he’s shown to this point.

On defense, Porzingis will likely function in the role where Robert Williams has had a lot of success for the Celtics: roaming as a weakside helper. Al Horford will likely continue to guard the bigger bigs (think Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, etc.), while Porzingis will be able to float and help. Porzingis is coming off a pretty good individual defensive season. His defensive impact should get even better while surrounded by the best defenders he’s ever played with.

On the downside, Porzingis was relatively healthy last season, as he appeared in 65 games. That’s the most games he’s played over the last six seasons, which includes an entirely missed season after a torn ACL. Repeating that level of availability will be a big part of determining the success level of this trade for the Celtics. If he misses half the season, that will lessen his overall impact.

Porzingis will also see his usage rate, which generally hovers in the high-20% range, drop by a good amount. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown key the Celtics offense, and that isn’t going to change. But what Porzingis trades out in volume could be made up for in efficiency, as he’ll be playing with the most talented group he’s been with yet. That should mean a healthy diet of good looks on offense.

Marcus Smart is a major loss for the Celtics. There’s no way to spin it other than he was the team’s heart and soul. Whenever Boston absolutely needed a play, Smart was the guy who made it. But after nine years, the Celtics decided it was time to shake things up.

Smart’s defense slipped noticeably last season, after winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2022. He was still good against bigger players, but the quicker perimeter players gave him trouble. Smart is also injury-prone and an inconsistent shooter.

But Smart was still a good defender, the Celtics best playmaker and the guy who regularly got the offense started. Beyond all that, he was a loved and trusted fan favorite, a team leader and a Celtic through and through. Those things are harder to quantify than the statistical stuff, but that doesn’t make them any less real.

There are already reports that this trade will ultimately cost Boston Grant Williams. As a pending restricted free agent, the Celtics could choose to work a sign-and-trade with Williams, to return something of value. Or they may just choose to make things easy and let Williams go free and clear. His shooting-defense combination will be missed, as will Williams’ ability to keep the locker room loose.

In the backcourt, the Celtics still have decisions to make with Malcolm Brogdon and Payton Pritchard. Brogdon now knows he was being traded, so that’s something Brad Stevens will have to handle. Brogdon’s injury history was also apparently a factor in the LA Clippers pulling out of the deal, which is scary for Boston. Brogdon has $45 million owed to him over the next two seasons, and that’s a lot if his elbow injury suffered in the Eastern Conference Finals is worse than originally thought.

As for Pritchard, there’s a chance the Celtics keep him around now. The path to playing time is a little clearer with Smart out of the picture. Pritchard should be able to get regular minutes off the bench., even if big minutes still won’t be there. His shooting has always been a valuable skill, and Pritchard’s playmaking is improving all the time. This remains a situation to keep an eye on.

In a real sense, Boston may be trading Marcus Smart and Grant Williams for Kristaps Porzingis and Payton Pritchard. That’s probably a win for the Celtics, pending what ultimately happens with Porzingis and Pritchard contractually.

Losing Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala are sort of “shrug” impacts for Boston. Gallinari unfortunately never got suit up for the Celtics. Muscala was fine, but didn’t play enough after being acquired at the trade deadline for anyone to get worked up about his inclusion in the deal.

Adding two first-round picks for the Celtics is a key part of this trade, considering they gave up Smart in this deal. As an already-expensive team, and only getting more so, Boston had to put themselves in position to add cheaper, team-controlled talent through the draft. The 25th pick in this year’s draft is a start. The future Golden State Warriors first-round pick has some protections, but should deliver as soon as next season. If nothing else, it’s additional capital to toss in a deal down the line.

There are already rumors that Boston will look to extend Porzingis. He likely won’t get near the $36 million he’s set to make this season, but Porzingis could command a first-year salary in an extension of $30 million. And Pritchard is extension-eligible. It remains unlikely Boston will extend him, but it’s more in play now than it would have been with Smart on the roster. With super max extensions looming for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the Celtics cap sheet will remain pretty fat with guaranteed salary.

Finally, to wrap things up for Boston, they could be in position to use the $5 million Taxpayer MLE now. If Grant Williams is out of the picture, Boston should have enough room under the second apron to sign a player via the Taxpayer MLE. That player will likely replace whatever the Celtics had hoped to get from Gallinari, after he lost last season due to a torn ACL.

The Grizzlies

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $18,917,046
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $16,623,680
Difference: $2,293,366

Marcus Smart might be the most “grit ‘n’ grind” player to never have been a part of that Memphis Grizzlies culture. Now, he will be.

Smart is a perfect fit for the Grizzlies as both a Ja Morant replacement (temporarily) and a Dillon Brooks replacement (long-term). Even though his perimeter defense slipped, he’s still a top-tier defender. Smart is also an incredibly switchable player. Put him with Jaren Jackson Jr. and your options at the other three positions increase a lot, because they’ll cover up so much on defense for everyone else.

On offense, Smart will take over at the Grizzlies starting point guard to open next season. When Morant is back from his suspension, Smart will either transition into a bench role, or Memphis can run a three-guard group with him, Morant and Desmond Bane in the starting lineup. Either way, that’s a terrific three-guard rotation.

Tyus Jones was terrific for the Grizzlies as a backup and spot-starter. Smart will be a different look, but he’s a more than adequate replacement. And Memphis is already used to inconsistent shooting from their time with Dillon Brooks, so that shouldn’t be all that much of an adjustment. Finding another guard to play behind Smart is important, because his health history shows that he’ll miss some time himself each season.

On the cap sheet, Smart is signed for just shy of $60 million over the next three seasons. That’s perfectly fair value, and it removes some of the uncertainty for Memphis of what would happen with Jones after this season. The Grizzlies have a core of guys locked in for the next few years, and that’s huge as they continue their ascent in the Western Conference.

As for the draft picks, it was time for Memphis to part with some of them. The Grizzlies have drafted and developed as well as anyone over the last several years. But that’s resulted in a roster that is pretty stuffed, and you can’t pay everyone. Parting with a couple of picks to upgrade the rotation is a solid investment for Memphis.

The Wizards

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $24,302,950
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $36,016,200
Difference: -$11,713,250

Much like the Bradley Beal trade, this more or less amounts to a salary-dump for Washington. They are taking back far less money than they send out. Tyus Jones, Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala are all on expiring contracts, so their goal of long-term cap flexibility was achieved for the Wizards.

Jones is a good player, but Washington has a glut of point guards now. They’ve got Jones, Monte Morris, Delon Wright and the recently-acquired Chris Paul. That’ll sort itself out through further transactions, but it’s fair to say no one should plan for Jones, or any of the others, to be a long-term Wizard.

The same is true of Gallinari and Muscala. Both could be parts of the rotation and eat up some regular season minutes. Or either, or both, could be moved in another deal. Again, neither is very likely to be in DC beyond this upcoming season.

This trade is maybe a touch worse for Washington than the original version with the LA Clippers, because they missed out on getting a first-round pick. But the Wizards only moved back five spots, and they got a better player in Jones. So, it’s probably closer to neutral than truly worse.

Now, Washington can continue with their teardown. The Wizards haven’t taken on any guaranteed money beyond this current season. There’s a chance that Washington could have as little as $33 million on the books for the 24-25 season. That would translate into somewhere around $100 million in potential cap space.

Cap space alone has never won anything. But having that sort of flexibility is what the new Wizards front office wanted. With these two trades of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, they achieved it.

The Clippers

LA reportedly backed out of the original deal due to concerns about Malcolm Brogdon’s injury history. That’s fair, given Brogdon is dealing with a torn ligament in the elbow of his shooting arm. And his long-term history isn’t much cleaner.

Now, LA brings Marcus Morris and Amir Coffey back into the fold, while keeping the 30th pick in this year’s draft. But they still don’t have a real answer at point guard, beyond re-signing Russell Westbrook for the veteran minimum.

However, LA and Washington’s part of the deal was fine, it was the Brogdon portion that collapsed. That means the Clippers and Wizards could re-engage on talks, possibly centered around Chris Paul. That would need to get done in the next week, before the league year changes over, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

NBA Twitter is an…interesting place. Yeah, let’s say interesting. That works. Once and while, amid all the incessant GOAT talk, blatant player stanning and outright name-calling, a really good point emerges from the muck. In the afternoon of Monday, June 19, one of those good points found its way to the surface.

Sean Highkin of The Rose Garden Report (great independent coverage of the Portland Trail Blazers) noted that Trail Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans linked up on a high-profile trade in recent years when C.J. McCollum was trades to the Pelicans. This came up amidst the rumors that New Orleans is attempting to trade up to get the third overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft that Portland currently owns.

Matt Moore of Action Network noted in a quote tweet of Sean’s original tweet that pre-existing relationships between front office decision makers and teams matters more than most realize. Here’s the interaction from Sean and Matt:

Pre-existing relationships matter a lot more than is talked about. https://t.co/OZ2dK6Zo14

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) June 19, 2023

We’ve noted here on Spotrac before that some teams are more regular trade partners than others. But the interaction between Sean and Matt got us wondering: Just how often do certain general managers trade together?

We pulled the list of all of the current primary front office decision makers and examined how often they’ve traded with each other. The results were pretty interesting, so we’re sharing them here.

A few notes on the data:

• From this point forward, we’ll refer to the primary front office decision maker as the GM. NBA titles range from the traditional GM title to Vice President to President, and probably eventually Supreme Overlord of Basketball Ops. For simplicity’s sake, we’re going with GM from here on out.

• We compared GMs in their current job only. For example, Danny Ainge was the GM of the Boston Celtics from May of 2003 to June of 2021. But in this sample, we’re only looking at Ainge’s tenure running the Utah Jazz front office starting in December of 2021.

• We only looked at current GMs who have made trades together while in their current roles. For example, Danny Ainge and Pat Riley hooked up for a handful of deals while running the Celtics and Miami Heat, respectively. However, the two have yet to make a deal during the time Ainge has run the Jazz front office.

• This data set includes a lot of three-team trades, several four-team trades and even a five-time trade. In that situation, we gave credit for each of the teams as having traded with each other, even if they didn’t directly send something to one of the other teams in a multi-team deal. The reason is that the trade likely falls apart without the participation of all parties involved.

• The Golden State Warriors and Washington Wizards are both working with new front office leaders. The Warriors have no trades in the set, but we went ahead and connected the Wizards with the Phoenix Suns, because of the pending Bradley Beal-Chris Paul trade.

• We only went back as far as 2013, as we figured a 10-year sample was enough for these purposes.

• All the data is courtesy of the amazing executive records on Basketball Reference. For example, here’s Sam Presti of the Seattle SuperSonics and Oklahoma City Thunder’s long and extensive transaction record. (If you think that just an excuse to include the Seattle SuperSonics, you would be correct!)

With all those notes called out, here is our GM list and the month and year they started in their current position:

• Landry Fields – Atlanta Hawks – December, 2022

• Brad Stevens – Boston Celtics – June, 2021

• Sean Marks – Brooklyn Nets – February, 2016

• Mitch Kupchak – Charlotte Hornets – April, 2018

• Arturas Karnisovas – Chicago Bulls – April, 2020

• Koby Altman – Cleveland Cavaliers – June, 2017

• Nico Harrison – Dallas Mavericks – June, 2021

• Calvin Booth – Denver Nuggets – May, 2022

• Troy Weaver – Detroit Pistons – June, 2020

• Mike Dunleavy Jr. – Golden State Warriors – June, 2023

• Rafael Stone – Houston Rockets – October, 2020

• Kevin Pritchard – Indiana Pacers – May, 2017

• Lawrence Frank – LA Clippers – August, 2017

• Rob Pelinka – Los Angeles Lakers – April, 2019

• Zach Kleiman – Memphis Grizzlies – April, 2019

• Pat Riley – Miami Heat – September, 1995

• Jon Horst – Milwaukee Bucks – June, 2017

• Tim Connelly – Minnesota Timberwolves – May, 2022

• David Griffin – New Orleans Pelicans – April, 2019

• Leon Rose – New York Knicks – March, 2020

• Sam Presti – Oklahoma City Thunder – June, 2007

• Jeff Weltman – Orlando Magic – May, 2017

• Daryl Morey – Philadelphia 76ers – November, 2020

• James Jones – Phoenix Suns – October, 2018

• Joe Cronin – Portland Trail Blazers – December, 2021

• Monte McNair – Sacramento Kings – October, 2020

• Brian Wright – San Antonio Spurs – July, 2019

• Masai Ujiri – Toronto Raptors – May, 2013

• Danny Ainge – Utah Jazz – December, 2021

• Michael Winger – Washington Wizards – May, 2023

Most Common Trade Partners

Of our 30 GM set (really 29 because Mike Dunleavy Jr. hasn’t swung his first deal yet), there were 12 teams that have hooked up with another team (under their current GM) for at least three trades. The GMs and teams that have been trade partners the most are:

• Sean Marks (Nets) and Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) – 4 times

• Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) and Jon Horst (Bucks) – 4 times

• Leon Rose (Knicks) and Sam Presti (Thunder) – 4 times

• Brad Stevens (Celtics) and Brian Wright (Spurs) – 3 times

• Mitch Kupchak (Hornets) and Leon Rose (Knicks) – 3 times

• Troy Weaver (Pistons) and Leon Rose (Knicks) – 3 times

• Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) and James Jones (Suns) – 3 times

• Rob Pelinka (Lakers) and Jeff Weltman (Magic) – 3 times

Some commonalities that group shares are length of time in role. Marks, Pritchard, Horst, Presti and Weltman have all been in their role since at least 2017. That helps with building relationships across the league with a lot of the other GMs. Kupchak, and Jones have held their spots since 2018. Only Rose, Stevens, Wright, Weaver and Pelinka have been running their front offices for less than five years, but they’ve all been around the NBA in other capacities for years.

You probably noticed that Pritchard and Rose showed up three different times. They clearly like doing business with the same partners. As a matter of fact, of Pritchard’s 24 trades, nearly half have been done with the combination of the Nets, Bucks and Suns. In Rose’s three-plus years leading the Knicks, he’s done 17 trades and 10 of them have been with the combination of the Thunder, Hornets and Pistons.

Probably not surprisingly due to tenure in their role, the GMs with the most deals made within their current peer group are:

• Sam Presti – 27 total trades with 18 different teams

• Sean Marks – 25 total trades with 15 different teams

• Kevin Pritchard – 24 total trades with 13 different teams

• Lawrence Frank – 22 total trades with 16 different teams

A handful of GMs have done relatively few deals within their current peer group. Most have been in their current role for two or fewer years, with a few notable exceptions:

• Arturas Karnisovas – five total trades with five different teams

• Daryl Morey – eight total trades with seven different teams

• Masai Ujiri – eight total trades with six different teams

Now, it’s fair to point out that some GMs who have had led several different teams, probably have wider-ranging common trade partners from previous roles. And those who were assistant general managers have also built relationships across the league, especially since a lot of the actual trade talks start with the assistant GMs.

This wasn’t meant to be a be-all, end-all analysis. The idea was to see if there is anything to the idea of GMs linking up with the same peers for multiple trades. Considering 12 GMs have gone back to the same well at least three times, it’s fair to say it’s a theory that holds water.

So, when you hear a rumor that the Pacers and Nets or Pacers and Bucks or Knicks and Thunder are talking trade together, it’s probably fair to put a bit more stock in something getting done.

However, it’s also important to note that the list of common trade partners also includes some front offices that are notoriously leak-proof. Which is likely a big part of why they keep finding their way back to each other to get deals done. They know they won’t be negotiating through the media, because they can trust their partner on the other side.

Only a few days after it was reported the Washington Wizards would work with Bradley Beal on finding a trade, the team found one. Washington is sending Beal to the Phoenix Suns for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet and still-to-be-reported collection of second-round picks and pick swaps.

Let’s break down the first major move of the 2023 NBA offseason!

(NOTE: This article will be updated if the deal expands into a three-team trade sending Chris Paul to a team other than Washington.)

The Mechanics

From a salary cap, trade rules and salary-matching perspective, this is a fascinating trade. This trade is presumably being made as a part of the 2022-23 league year, which means the salaries used on both sides are more complex than your standard deal.

On one side, the Wizards are trading one of the largest salaries in the NBA in Bradley Beal’s $43,279,250 contract for the 2022-23 season. On the Suns side, Landry Shamet’s $9,250,000 deal is also a simple one.

It’s Chris Paul, and the nature of his partially guaranteed contract for 2023-24 season, where things get complicated. Because Paul’s deal is only partially guaranteed, he counts at different amounts as outgoing and incoming salary in a trade.

On the Wizards side as incoming money, Paul counts at his 2022-23 salary of $28.4 million, because we’re still in that league year. On the Suns side, Phoenix needs to bump his guarantee amount for next season to make this trade legal. At the current $15.8 million, the Suns would have been about $12 million shy of matching salary for Beal. Because of that, Paul’s guarantee will be bumped to just over $25 million. That will allow for the outgoing salary-matching to be enough to bring in Beal.

For Beal, he has a 15% trade bonus in his contract that no longer applies. Because that bonus would take him over his max salary, it will be automatically waived. On the flip side, Beal’s no-trade clause (the only negotiated NTC in the NBA), will carry over to the Suns and remain intact.

As for the draft picks, the Suns have all of their own second-round selections from 2023 (it’s pick #52) through 2028 (they owe 2029 to the Oklahoma City Thunder). Phoenix can also offer Washington the ability to swap first-round picks in 2024 and 2026. The Suns can’t trade a first-round pick, as they owe their 2023, 2025, 2027 and 2029 picks to the Brooklyn Nets from the Kevin Durant trade. The Stepien Rule prohibits teams from trading away future first-round picks in consecutive drafts, blocking Phoenix from adding anything beyond pick swaps into this deal.

The Suns

If we focus simply on the basketball factors, the Suns did quite well in this trade. Bradley Beal is very, very good. He’s one of the best scorers in the NBA. He’s also a better playmaker than he generally gets credit for. There isn’t a team in the NBA that can match the scoring/shooting trio of Beal alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

The fit isn’t perfect. All three players are score-first guys who can also pass. It’s going to take a little while to iron that out. What helps is Durant has played with other good scorers and shooters for his entire career. Booker has played with Durant some, but also alongside a ball dominant point guard in Chris Paul. They both know how to work off-ball, as does Beal, who spent his formative NBA years playing alongside John Wall in Washington, and also with Russell Westbrook for a season.

All three of Durant, Booker and Beal can shoot, which also helps. In other recent “Big 3” groupings, there has historically been one player who isn’t much of a threat without the ball. That won’t be a problem with this trio.

Assuming everything gets ironed out on the court, where things go could go sideways on the Suns is with depth, injuries and the cap sheet. And all three are tangled together like a Gordian knot. But there’s no case of swordsmanship to solve this problem.

Barring further adjustments to this deal, Phoenix only has five players under contract. Durant, Booker and Beal are joined by Deandre Ayton and Cameron Payne as signed for next season. And that quintet combines to make $169.4 million. That’s a scant $10.1 million below the projected Super Tax of $179.5 million, with 10 roster spots to fill.

That means that Phoenix is going to be closer to the actual Sun than they are to the Super Tax line when all is said and done.

Even if the Suns break up Ayton’s $32.5 million deal into two or three contracts and players, they’ll still likely take back as much money as they send out, if not more. And they’ll need to sign at least nine players if they don’t trade Ayton in a 1-for-3 kind of deal.

Because they won’t have the Taxpayer MLE, by virtue of being over the Super Tax, and they don’t have a first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Phoenix will be limited to re-signing their own players and adding new players on minimum deals.

In effect, this is the first “new team” test of the new CBA and it’s going to play out live in front of us.

Because of their limited ability to bring in outside help, it could make it more likely that Phoenix will re-sign their own free agents like Torrey Craig, Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale, who they have Early Bird rights for. That allows the Suns to give each of them a potentially bigger-than-expected bump in pay. As long as James Jones doesn’t go too far in raises for those three, he could turn them into valuable pieces of salary-matching for future trades down the line.

Phoenix has full Bird rights on pending restricted Darius Bazley, and he could also see a contract that comes in a bit richer than it was thought. Again, the idea would be to push the boundaries of what keeps Bazley a tradable asset in such a re-signing.

The Suns other free agents are all coming off minimum deals, but guys like Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross can all still play. All could be candidates to return for the minimum. The same is true of Ishmail Wainright, who Phoenix has a team option for.

As for outside help, barring an Ayton trade, it’s going to come in the form of veteran minimum deals. But with plenty of rotation spots available and a chance to contend for a title, the Suns should be able to pick off a few value signings to fill out their bench. This will likely happen after the first wave or two of free agency passes, all the cap space is gone and teams are left with parts of Mid-Level and Room Exceptions to offer. At that point, a veteran minimum deal from a contender in Phoenix looks pretty good.

And that depth is going to be needed, because none of Durant, Booker or Beal has a sterling track record when it comes to health. All are a good bet to miss a decent chunk of time. Without quality backups, injuries could be this team’s ultimate Achilles heel.

Long-term, the Suns have a lot of money locked in. As a matter of fact, it’s nearly ¾ of a billion dollars (billion with a B) in guaranteed money on the Phoenix cap sheet through 2027-28. The Suns will owe Deandre Ayton, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant over $723 million combined.

That’s a staggering figure. Yes, the cap is going up, but the Suns will be dealing with the Super Tax for at least the next three to four seasons.

Bradley Beal is a better player than Chris Paul, even factoring in injury history. The fit is a little weird, but the Suns should be able to make it work. And they better, given the roster restrictions and cash commitment they’ve put on themselves for the next few years.

The Wizards

Washington’s part in all of this is far less complex than Phoenix’s is. The Wizards essentially salary-dumped Bradley Beal less than a year after handing him a five-year, $251 million dollar contract.

Chris Paul is still a good player, but he’s never going to suit up for Washington. He’ll either be traded in an expanded version of this deal, or traded in a separate deal, or waived. Landry Shamet is a fine role player, but who knows if he’ll ever play any sort of meaningful role for the Wizards? He could be flipped in a trade too.

The draft picks are nothing to write home about. Swaps only matter if you think you’ll be a better team in the years you hold the swaps. Maybe that happens here, maybe it doesn’t. It’s a good way off. Second-rounder picks have more value in this new Super Tax world, but only if you’re a super expensive team.

And there’s the key.

The Wizards are no longer going to be super expensive. At least not for a while.

Washington’s new front office, led by Michael Winger and Will Dawkins, was very open that they were given permission by team governor Ted Leonsis to rebuild, if they thought that was the best way forward. After years and years of being content to play for the middle, the Wizards are finally rebuilding.

The most long-term money that Washington has committed moving forward belongs to Daniel Gafford, who is owed just over $40 million through 2025-26. That’s relative peanuts for a starting-level center.

Kyle Kuzma is going to opt out for next season, and he’s probably leaving town, given where the Wizards are heading. Kristaps Porzingis may opt in for $36 million, as there are reports he may want that money now and to take his chances in free agency next summer. Even if Washington can’t find a deal for Porzingis, and they should be able to without much worry (Porzingis played at an All-Star level last year and stayed healthy), his deal will come off the books next season.

If they play their cards right, Washington can hit the summer of 2024 with somewhere between $26 and $40 million in committed salary on their books. That would leave the Wizards able to create between $75 and $90 million in potential cap space.

Talk about increased flexibility.

Now, cap space often turns into nothing more than broken dreams. But to even have the ability to have those cap space induced dreams is a win for the Wizards.

Every four to eight years we get told that our nation’s capital is ushering in a fresh start. For the past decade-plus, that’s never included the team that plays in Washington D.C. It’s always been same old, same old. We finally got that fresh start. And it’s going to be exciting to see what that fresh start brings for the Washington Wizards.

A handful of players got a jump on “option season” already. Danuel House Jr. of the Philadelphia 76ers and Otto Porter Jr. of the Toronto Raptors exercised their player options to return to their teams well ahead of their due dates. Fred VanVleet of the Raptors chose to decline his player option a few days ahead of his player option due date.

As a point of order, a player or team option isn’t really declined. It’s simply not exercised. A player must exercise, or opt in, to his option year, while a team must take the same action when they have control. The lone exception here is an Early Termination Option. For an ETO, a player must decline or opt out. No action would result in that player staying under contract.

With three decisions already made, we’re going to take a shot at predicting what happens with the remaining 40 player and team options.

Atlanta Hawks

No pending options

Boston Celtics

Danilo Gallinari - $6.8M player option

Gallinari is coming off a torn ACL that cost him the entirety of the 2022-23 season. He’s going to pick up this option and will hopefully debut for Boston this coming fall.

Mike Muscala - $3.5M team option

The Celtics are likely to pick up their option for Muscala and bring him back next season. They invested two second-round picks in a trade for him at the 2022 trade deadline. He’ll be back to provide depth up front in Boston.

Brooklyn Nets

No pending options

Charlotte Hornets

No pending options

Chicago Bulls

Andre Drummond - $3.4M player option

Drummond will reportedly pick his option up. That makes sense, as this is a bit more than he’d make on veteran minimum deal in free agency. He could also have a bigger role with Chicago, pending what happens with Nikola Vucevic.

Derrick Jones Jr. - $3.4M player option

Jones is in roughly the same boat as Drummond, and he’ll also reportedly pick up his option. Considering he’d probably get a veteran minimum deal elsewhere, picking up his option gets Jones a bit more money now.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lamar Stevens - $1.9M team option

This one is a real decision. Stevens showed he can be an NBA rotation player next year, so the Cavs would love to keep him around. If they pick up their option, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024. There’s probably not enough of a worry to necessitate handing restricted free agency now. Stevens will be back on his minimum deal.

Dallas Mavericks

No pending options

Denver Nuggets

Bruce Brown - $6.8M player option

Brown is going to opt out. The real question: Will he stay in Denver? Following the Nuggets winning the title, Brown said he wants to stay. The challenge is Denver can only offer him $7.8 million using his Non-Bird rights. This could be a Bobby Portis in Milwaukee type of situation. Play one more year on an under-market deal, then the Nuggets take care of Brown with Early Bird rights in the summer of 2024.

Detroit Pistons

Alec Burks - $10.5M team option

The Pistons didn’t trade Burks at the deadline, because they valued his veteran game with their young team. It’s hard to imagine much has changed. Look for Detroit to pick up their option for Burks and for him to be a part of things…at least until next trade season.

Isaiah Livers - $1.8M team option

Livers has shown enough flashes that he should be back for the minimum. Detroit will pick this option up and Livers will get another chance to earn a rotation spot this summer and in camp.

Eugene Omoruyi - $1.9M team option

Omoruyi can play, but the Pistons will probably decline his option. That doesn’t mean he might not be back, but for now the roster spot and the cap space are more important for Detroit.

Golden State Warriors

Donte DiVincenzo - $4.7M player option

DiVincenzo got squeezed a bit in free agency, but made the most of it. He bounced back to have a very good year. The Warriors won’t be able to offer him much of a raise if he opts out, but DiVincenzo will probably test the market and see if there’s more out there for him this summer.

Draymond Green - $27.6M player option

Green is widely expected to opt out. The question is if he’ll re-sign with the Warriors or not. The best guess here is that Green opts out and re-signs on a long-term deal, but one that allows Golden State some flexibility at the end.

Houston Rockets

Kenyon Martin Jr. - $1.9M team option

 This one depends on what the Rockets overall free agency plans are. If they are continuing with the rebuild, they probably decline Martin’s option. That would allow them to control the process in restricted free agency, as they work out a long-term deal with Martin. If Houston is chasing veterans with their cap space, they should pick up Martin’s option as a cheaper depth player. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024 that way, but that’s a risk worth taking if using cap space on win-now players this summer.

Indiana Pacers

No pending options

LA Clippers

No pending options

Los Angeles Lakers

Malik Beasley - $16.5M team option

Beasley never really found a groove with the Lakers, but he’s still a good shooter/scorer off the bench. Los Angeles looks increasingly less likely to go the cap space route, which means they’ll pick up this option for Beasley. He can be a rotation guy next season and, if nothing else, a nice piece of salary-matching in a later trade.

Memphis Grizzlies

Xavier Tillman Sr. - $1.9M team option

This is another situation where declining the option makes the player a restricted free agent, while picking it up makes him unrestricted a year from now. Tillman is probably never going to be a primary target in free agency, so there’s no need worry about controlling his free agent process. Memphis should pick this option up and keep Tillman for frontcourt depth.

Miami Heat

Victor Oladipo - $9.5M player option

Oladipo will pick this option up. There was a point where that would have been just fine with the Heat. Then Oladipo suffered another serious knee injury. Now, that’s some money Miami will have to work around on their books in what looks like a very important summer of re-signings and other moves.

Milwaukee Bucks

Jevon Carter - $2.2M player option

Carter will likely opt out of this deal, as it’s less than he could make by signing for the veteran minimum. Carter could find more than that from a guard-needy team in free agency. At the very least, he can re-sign with the Bucks for the minimum and do this dance again next summer.

Khris Middleton - $40.4M player option

On one hand, $40.4M is a lot for Middleton to opt out of. This is even more true with the news that he underwent another knee surgery shortly after the season. On the other hand, Middleton is one of the better free agents available this summer. He’ll opt out and recoup this money by signing for less next season, but by adding several years on a new deal. The question: Will that be with the Bucks or someone else?

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nathan Knight - $1.9M team option

Knight is a handy depth piece, and not someone other teams will target in free agency. Much like Xavier Tillman Sr. in Memphis, the Wolves would be smart to pick up their option and worry about unrestricted free agency later.

New Orleans Pelicans

Willy Hernangomez - $2.6M team option

The Pelicans value Hernangomez as a stay-ready center option and as a locker room influence. New Orleans has no realistic shot at cap space, so there’s no reason to not bring back Hernangomez.

Herb Jones - $1.8M team option

Jones is in a bit of a weird spot. He’s worth WAY more than a minimum deal, as an All-Defense level of player. But the Pelicans don’t have to give him that right now. Given how expensive New Orleans’ roster already is, and the fact that Jones can still be a restricted free agent in 2024, look for the Pels to pick up this option and have Jones as one of the best values in the NBA next season.

Naji Marshall - $1.9M team option

Marshall is in a bit of a different spot than Jones. He’ll be unrestricted next summer if New Orleans picks up their option for him this year. He’s improved each year, so exposing him to unrestricted free agency is a bit of a risk. Look for the Pelicans to decline the option, make Marshall a restricted free agent this summer and then to work out a longer deal.

New York Knicks

Josh Hart - $12.9M player option

Hart has one of the NBA’s most unique contracts, in that he can opt in, but his deal then becomes fully non-guaranteed. It’s like an MLB mutual option. But that doesn’t really matter, as Hart has said he plans to opt out. That makes sense, as he’ll get more money and more years on a new deal.

Miles McBride - $1.8M team option

The Knicks will pick up this option for McBride and will bring him back for minimum money. He’s a good third point guard and he’s a value play for a roster that is starting to get expensive.

Derrick Rose - $15.6M team option

Luxury tax concerns will drive the decision to decline Rose’s option for New York. The Knicks are dancing around the tax line, and that’s before re-signing Hart, which they intend to do. That means Rose’s option will be declined. But he could always re-sign for far less money as a free agent, if New York thinks he has anything left.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Lindy Waters III - $1.9M team option

What the Thunder do with Waters’ team option will be a signal for their free agency plans. If they decline it, OKC is probably looking at using their cap space to sign or trade for someone. If they pick it up, they’ll let Waters go into training camp to fight for a spot on a roster that will add Chet Holmgren and another player through the draft.

Orlando Magic

Goga Bitadze - $2.1M team option

The Magic are looking at creating a good amount of cap space. They like Bitadze, but to maximize that space, they need to let him go. He could always return later in free agency.

Michael Carter-Williams - $3.1M team option

It was great to see Carter-Williams make his way back to the NBA after an ankle injury. Orlando might bring him back to compete for a roster spot in training camp, but that will come after declining this option.

Admiral Schofield - $1.9M team option

Schofield earned his callup from a two-way deal, but it may be somewhat short-lived. Again, because of cap space being a priority, Schofield will likely have his option declined. Like Bitadze and Carter-Williams, he could be back to fight for a roster spot in training camp.

Philadelphia 76ers

James Harden - $35.6M player option

Here we go again, but in very different circumstances. Harden pulled a bit of a surprise by opting out and taking less last summer to allow Philadelphia to sign some free agents. This time around, he’s going to opt out to get a max deal. Whether that comes from the Sixers or another team (Houston Rockets?) remains to be seen.

Montrezl Harrell - $2.7M player option

Harrell didn’t see much run for the 76ers. If he wants a bigger role, he’ll probably opt out and move on in free agency. Harrell would also make slightly more in actual salary by signing a new minimum deal with another team.

Phoenix Suns

Ishmail Wainright - $1.9M team option 

Wainright has been better than expected for the Suns. He’s a willing defender, and willing shooter. Unfortunately, he’s not much of a shot-maker. This is truly a 50-50 decision, as Phoenix needs depth and Wainright is at least an NBA-level guy. But the guess here is the Suns decline and take the roster spot for a veteran on the minimum.

Portland Trail Blazers

Kevin Knox - $3M team option

The Blazers won’t pick up Knox’s option. Either they are conserving wiggle room around the tax to put win-now players around Damian Lillard. Or Portland is rebuilding and won’t want the extra money for a non-rotation guy on the books.

Sacramento Kings

Kessler Edwards - $1.8M team option

Edwards will get caught up in which direction the Kings go. They can reasonably create over $21 million in cap space. That could be enough to be a player in free agency. If they plan to re-sign Harrison Barnes and stay over the cap, Edwards’ option probably gets picked up. We’re projecting the latter here.

San Antonio Spurs

No pending options

Toronto Raptors

Gary Trent Jr. - $18.6M player option

Trent is going to opt out and hit free agency as one of the best 3&D options available. He’s a great fit for any of the cap space teams, so look for him to cash in. Toronto could pivot towards a reset, if not rebuild, so Trent may not be a part of their plans either.

Utah Jazz

Jordan Clarkson - $14.3M player option

Clarkson is going to opt out, but that doesn’t mean his time in Utah is over. The Jazz like Clarkson quite a bit, and he enjoys being there. This would be about adding more years to his deal, as he begins his age-31 season.

Rudy Gay - $6.5M player option

Gay is going to pick up his option. He wouldn’t sniff as much money in free agency. Once he opts in, look for Utah to potentially have Gay in a trade package, as they continue rebuilding the roster.

Talen Horton-Tucker - $11M player option

Horton-Tucker could possibly get more by opting out, but it’s not a lock. He’s shown he can play a rotation role, but money is going to dry up quickly, especially for guys who are best in a combo-guard role off the bench. Look for Horton-Tucker to opt in and try to cash in next summer.

Damian Jones - $2.6M player option

Jones will opt in, because he’s a minimum salary guy either way. Might as well take the guaranteed money by opting in. Like Gay, he could be a part of trade packages for Utah.

Washington Wizards

Kyle Kuzma - $13M player option

Kuzma has far outplayed this contract, so he’ll opt out. With the Wizards possibly rebuilding, he’s probably moving on. That’s not a bad thing for Kuzma though, as he’ll be a highly sought-after player as a scoring combo-forward.

Kristaps Porzingis - $36M player option

This one is weird. Had Washington not moved to a new front office, Porzingis probably would have opted out and signed a long-term deal with the Wizards. The buzz now is that Porzingis may opt in and take the guaranteed big salary. At that point, it’s up the Wizards new decision-makers to trade him or not.

The 2020 NBA Draft class is eligible to sign Rookie Scale contract extensions this offseason. Each player has until late-October to agree to an extension. If no agreement is reached, the player will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2024. A handful of players are ineligible to sign an extension, because they had team options declined or were waived at some point during their rookie scale contract.

By pick from that 2020 Draft, here’s where things stand for each player. We’ll make a prediction on what happens before the late-October extension deadline.

For reference: The standard maximum extension (25% of the cap) these players can sign projects to be $207,350,000 over five years. The Designated Rookie Extension amount (30% of the cap) projects to be $248,820,000 over five years. We’re projecting this off a salary cap of $143 million for the 2024-25 season.

In order to qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension, a player must make All-NBA this coming season, or they can also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year this coming season.

#1 Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

Edwards has blossomed into exactly the kind of star you hope to draft first overall. He’s a scoring machine, an improving rebounder and playmaker and he’s getting more efficient. The Wolves are going to have to no choice but to give him a max extension. It’s also likely Edwards will get the Designated Rookie language that could bump him to 30% of the cap too.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

#2 James Wiseman, Detroit Pistons

Wiseman finally found his footing in Detroit after two injury-plagued and inconsistent seasons with the Golden State Warriors. The offensive talent is evident, but the defense needs a lot of work. Given the Pistons also have Jalen Duren at the center spot, this battle royale will extend until next summer. 

Prediction: No extension

#3 LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets 

Ball is the Hornets best player. He’s easily the best thing the woebegone franchise has going for them. He’s an All-Star talent and the kind of guy other players want to play with. Charlotte can’t mess this up by getting cheap. Full max, with the Designated Rookie language should be the play here.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

#4 Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls

Williams has become one of the most underrated players from this class. He’s a good shooter, has shown improvement every season and he’s been durable in two of his three seasons. The Bulls roster and cap sheet are in a bit of a weird place, but they can’t let Williams leave because of that. The new CBA allowing for non-max rookie scale extensions to cover five years could come into play here.

Prediction: Five years, $100,000,000, no options 

#5 Isaac Okoro, Cleveland Cavaliers

Okoro showed real improvement in his third season, and yet it seems like the Cavs still did everything they could to try and replace him with worse-fitting options. Cleveland also has an increasing payroll and Okoro is probably more of a two than a three, and the backcourt spots are spoken for. That seems like a sign that no extension is coming.

Prediction: No extension

#6 Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks

Normally, we’d say the Hawks should lock up Okongwu. But this team has so much long-term salary already committed for a middle-of-the-pack roster. Because of that, Atlanta may need to rebalance the roster a bit before taking care of Okongwu. That means this probably goes to restricted free agency in 2024.

Prediction: No extension

#7 Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons

An extension for Hayes would have to be so incredibly team-friendly that he’s best to bet on himself putting it all together ahead of restricted free agency in 2024. The good news? There are some signs. Just not enough to get an extension.

Prediction: No extension

#8 Obi Toppin, New York Knicks

Toppin’s career has been spent as a low-minutes backup behind Julius Randle. There’s very much still a mystery box quality to his game. He’s flashed when given time, but those flashes aren’t extension-worthy…unless he’s traded ahead of the extension deadline. 

Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded. Then, 4 years, $70,000,000 - seems like a worthy gamble as an upside bet.

#9 Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards

If Avdija could shoot, he’d be a lock for at least an $80 million extension. But he can’t shoot and doesn’t seem to be improving in that phase of the game either. The Wizards have a complicated summer with some key free agents and a new front office making the decisions. They’ll delay this one until restricted free agency in 2024. 

Prediction: No extension.

#10 Jalen Smith, Indiana Pacers 

Smith had his third- and fourth-year options declined by the Phoenix Suns. He was traded to Indiana during the 2021-22 season. Smith then signed a three-year, $15.1 million with the Pacers in the summer of 2022.

#11 Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs

Vassell suffered through an injury-plagued third season, but he improved nearly across the board. The Spurs locked up Keldon Johnson to a value deal last summer and will look to do the same with Vassell. This is another one where the five-year allowance for non-max deals in the CBA could be big.

Prediction: Five years, $115,000,000, no options 

#12 Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

Haliburton is a bona fide star. He’s the Pacers franchise player. He’s every bit as good as LaMelo Ball as young, star point guards. That’ll get him paid, and probably on a deal that includes Designated Rookie language too.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to Five years, $248,820,000, no options

#13 Kira Lewis Jr., New Orleans Pelicans

Lewis has suffered through injuries in his first three seasons and has only appeared in 103 regular season games for the Pels. That’s not enough to extend him, and the guard rotation is pretty stuffed in New Orleans too.

Prediction: No extension

#14 Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers

Nesmith turned in his first healthy season and he played well for the Pacers. He showed some signs of becoming that knockdown shooter he was supposed to be coming out of college. But the Pacers are going to commit big money to Tyrese Haliburton, after extending Myles Turner last summer. And they’ll probably spend some dough in free agency too. That doesn’t leave room to extend Nesmith. 

Prediction: No extension

#15 Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic

Anthony has adapted well to the third-guard role for the Magic. He was solid coming off the bench. But that caps how much you can pay him, especially in a backcourt that features some other talented players too. Unless it’s a team-friendly deal, Orlando probably lets this carry over to the summer of 2024. That could benefit Anthony too, as his market could expand. 

Prediction: No extension

#16 Isaiah Stewart, Detroit Pistons

The Pistons frontcourt is crowded. Isaiah Stewart might be the best of the young bunch, but he probably also has the least upside. His best role seems like it’ll be as an energy big for 20-25 minutes a night on a good team. That’s not something you generally extend a guy for, unless it’s team-friendly. Stewart is better off betting on himself. 

Prediction: No extension

#17 Aleksej Pokusevski, Oklahoma City Thunder 

Pokusevski was figuring this out in his third season and making real progress. Then a fracture in his leg sidelined him for a large chunk of the second half of the season. There won’t be an extension, because the big man will have to show he’s part of the long-term future this upcoming season.

Prediction: No extension

#18 Josh Green, Dallas Mavericks 

Green started to show some stuff during his second season. In his third year, Green became the Mavs best all-around wing. This is probably going to be a value extension that might catch some off guard.

Prediction: Four years, $70,000,000

#19 Saddiq Bey, Atlanta Hawks 

Bey is in a weird spot. The Hawks have a very full roster and a lot of long-term salary on the books. Bey also plays the same position as De’Andre Hunter (already extended) and Jalen Johnson (a year behind on his rookie deal). That probably takes an extension off the board. But re-signing Bey in restricted free agency, depending on how the roster ultimately shakes out, should be on the table. 

Prediction: No extension

#20 Precious Achiuwa, Toronto Raptors

Had Achiuwa’s three-point shooting stayed level, he’d have been a really good extension candidate. But it fell way off, and the Raptors are a team in transition. They’ll probably hold off on signing Achiuwa until they pick a direction with the roster. 

Prediction: No extension

#21 Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers

Maxey has become one of the best scoring guards in the league and he’s done it quickly. He can score both on- and off-ball, which is huge for lineup versatility. He’s easily worth the 25% max, given where the Sixers roster is at and where the cap is heading.

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

#22 Zeke Nnaji, Denver Nuggets 

Nnaji is a good player, but he hasn’t been able to keep a rotation role with the Nuggets. He’ll probably have another chance, as the Nuggets backup bigs will cycle this summer. But that’s not enough to get him extended.

Prediction: No extension.

#23 Leandro Bolmaro, out of the NBA 

Bolmaro is out of the NBA after two non-descript seasons. He returned to Spain after a midseason waiver from the Utah Jazz. Bolmaro also signed a year late, so he would haven’t been extension-eligible anyway.

#24 R.J. Hampton, Detroit Pistons 

Hampton was waived by the Orlando Magic before finishing the season with the Pistons. He’s got a non-guaranteed contract for next season with Detroit. Hampton also had his fourth-year option declined, which would have rendered him unable to extend, had he stayed with Orlando.

#25 Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks

Quickley is a really fun player. He’s a scoring machine and a solid defender. He’d probably start for a handful of teams around the NBA. The challenge with the Knicks is that starting him and Jalen Brunson would be a tiny backcourt. That keeps Quickley in a bench role, and that limits his upside contract-wise. But the Knicks would do well to get him signed long-term. Something bridging his current role with his potential makes sense, as New York loves to add incentives into their contracts. 

Prediction: Four years, $84,000,000 with incentives that could bring it up to $90,000,000, no options

#26 Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics 

Pritchard can play, but he got squeezed out in a deep Boston backcourt. He won’t extend unless it’s an overpay, because Pritchard wants to play. And the Celtics aren’t in a spot of overpay anyone, given where their salaries are headed.

Prediction: No extension

#27 Udoka Azubuike, Utah Jazz

Azubuike had his fourth-year team option declined by the Jazz. Given the presence of Walker Kessler on the roster, it’s likely Azubuike will be playing elsewhere next season.

#28 Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves 

McDaniels is very, very good. He’s arguably the best defender of this entire draft class. And he’s a much-improved offensive player. He’s also an ideal big wing to pair with Anthony Edwards long-term. That’s going to get him paid and paid healthily.

Prediction: Four years, $100,000,000, no options

#29 Malachi Flynn, Toronto Raptors

Flynn has had multiple opportunities to take the Raptors backup point guard spot, but injuries and ineffectiveness have kept it from happening. There won’t be an extension here. 

Prediction: No extension

#30 Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies

Bane is the best shooter in his class. He’s also improved greatly as a playmaker and he’s a solid defender. The Grizzlies are very proactive about locking up their own players. Bane is going to be the next one to get paid and he’s probably going to get a max deal too. 

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

2019 Draft Class

Chuma Okeke, Orlando Magic

Okeke signed a year late, after being drafted while recovering from a torn ACL. Thus, he’s extension-eligible this summer. The challenge is that Okeke has really slipped from what was a productive rookie season. He hasn’t shot well, and the rest of his game hasn’t developed much either.

Prediction: No extension

The NBA announced the All-NBA teams for the 2022-23 season on Wednesday. As always, it’s an honor for any player to be named All-NBA. For a handful of players, the honor (or lack thereof for one) had some major contractual implications too.

(Please Note: All contracts referenced here are estimates/projections. The NBA salary cap is in a bit of an unpredictable place with both a new CBA in place and a new media rights deal coming soon.)

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown being named to his first All-NBA team (he was on the Second Team) earned him a nice immediate bonus, while being a boon to his long-term earning potential as well.

For this season, Brown getting named All-NBA maxed out his somewhat complex bonus set. Brown’s incentives are broken up into two parts. The first part is related to his games played and team success. Brown had already achieved the maximum of just over $1 million for that section.

The second part of Brown’s incentives are an either/or scenario of postseason awards and team success. None of them can stack upon one another, but he had different paths to earning the full bonus amount. Brown had already achieved a portion of this second incentive by making the All-Star team, but he got 100% of this section by being named All-NBA. This earned Brown about $2.1 million in additional incentives.

Added together, Brown earned roughly $3.1 million in total bonuses for this season. That sees his salary number rise from $26.7 million to $29.8 million for this past year. In addition, Brown’s cap hit for the 2023-24 season will now be at $31.8 million, as his bonuses are now deemed likely. (A bonus is deemed “likely” or “unlikely” based on the simple formula of “Did it happen last year?” If the bonus was achieved, it’s likely. If not, it’s unlikely.)

While congratulations are in order for Jaylen Brown for the All-NBA nod and the extra $3.1 million earned, there are now bigger fish to fry.

As we covered previously, Brown had major stakes for his next contract by making All-NBA. We won’t rehash that entire article, but by being named All-NBA, Brown is now eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, or the so-called Super Max. That contract projects to look like this:

• 2024-25: $50,050,000
• 2025-26: $54,054,000
• 2026-27: $58,058,000
• 2027-28: $62,062,000
• 2028-29: $66,066,000
• Total: five years, $290,290,000

Boston is now eligible to offer Brown a deal starting at 35% of the salary cap vs 30% of the cap, by virtue of the All-NBA honor. That deal would come with 8% raises, and would likely include some form of player option on the final season.

It’s important to note that this deal would start with the 2024-25 season, as Brown still has one more season under contract with the Celtics. Should Brown turn down the Designated Veteran Extension (or in the unlikely scenario Boston doesn’t offer it), he can sign a four-year deal with another team in the summer of 2024. That contract projects to look like this:

• 2024-25: $42,900,000
• 2025-26: $45,045,000
• 2026-27: $47,190,000
• 2027-28: $49,335,000
• Total: four years, $184,470,000

That’s a pretty significant difference, even if you compare four-year to four-year values. That’s about $40 million over the same four-year period.

One last note (and this will come up with another player!): Brown can only get the Super Max from the Celtics. You can only offer a Super Max extension to a player you drafted or a player that you acquired while they were on their rookie deal. In addition, if Brown signs a Designated Veteran Extension, he’d have a one-year trade restriction from the date of signing.

Jayson Tatum

We’re going to keep this one simple, as Jayson Tatum still has at least two years left on the rookie scale extension he signed with the Celtics a couple of years ago. That means he’s not extension-eligible until the summer of 2024 and that extension would then start with the 2025-26 season.

Because he’s now made All-NBA the last two years, Tatum is already eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension. One of the criteria is to make All-NBA for two of the previous three seasons (or the one season prior), meaning Tatum has met that marker, no matter what happens in the 2023-24 season.

Tatum’s projected Super Max extension looks like this:

• 2025-26: $53,198,250
• 2026-27: $57,454,110
• 2027-28: $61,709,970
• 2028-29: $65,965,830
• 2029-30: $70,221,690
• Total: five years, $308,549,850

That’s 35% of the cap with 8% raises. Like with Brown, the final season would likely be a player option. In addition, to sign this full five-year extension, Tatum would need to first decline his current player option for the 2025-26 season.

Ja Morant

This past summer, Ja Morant signed a Designated Rookie Extension, or so-called Rose Rule extension. (It’s a bit more complicated than that, but the terms have become used interchangeably.) That contract could have seen Morant jump from 25% of the cap to the 30% of the cap tier, had he been named All-NBA.

As Morant didn’t make any of the three All-NBA teams, he’ll now stay at the 25% of the cap tier. That contract projects to look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

Had Morant made All-NBA, his deal would have jumped to $233.2 million over five years.

For what’s it worth, Darius Garland and Zion Williamson both had similar conditions in their deals. However, neither had a realistic chance of being named All-NBA for this past season. Interestingly enough, none of Morant, Garland or Williamson have a player option on the final seasons of their max extensions with Memphis, Cleveland and New Orleans, respectively.

Domantas Sabonis

Like Jaylen Brown, being named All-NBA was quite profitable for Domantas Sabonis. He had already earned $1.3 million by being an All-Star this past season, and he added an additional $1.3 million by making All-NBA.

For this current season, that sees Sabonis’ salary jump from his base of $18.5 million to $21.1 million. For next season, as both of his bonuses are now considered likely, Sabonis’ cap hit will go from $19.4 million to $22 million.

Unfortunately, unlike Brown and Jayson Tatum, Sabonis is not eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension. Because the Sacramento Kings acquired Sabonis while he was on his second (current) contract, they can’t offer him a Super Max extension. Those are reserved for players drafted by or acquired by the team while still on their rookie contracts.

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center