With the 2023 NFL Draft upon us here's a snapshot look at the projected salary cap draft pools for each franchise.

What Am I Looking At Here?
Draft pools involve the amount of salary cap it would take for a team to sign & keep all of their draft picks in a given year. Obviously this is a fluid figure, as picks can be traded, players can go unsigned, and in certain cases, additional bonuses can be added to alter these figures slightly.

Why Are Top 51 Numbers Different?
During the offseason, only a team's Top 51 salary cap figures are accounted for in their overall total. For 2023, the cap figures of drafted players will range from $7.49M (#1 overall)to $771k (#251+). This means that many of these drafted players will carry a cap hit that won't be large enough to make their respective team's Top 51. For those that fall outside, only the prorated signing bonus portion of their cap hit will be counted toward the Top 51 salary cap. Once the regular season begins, all of a team's salary cap figures will begin to count.

Notable Notes

• At $20.3M the Houston Texans currently hold the largest overall draft pool for 2023, $3M more than any other team in the league right now. Houston will need $15M of Top 51 cap space (they have it) to sign all 12 of their picks.
• Thanks to last year's Tyreek Hill trade, and a Tom Brady collusion disciplinary action, the Dolphins enter the 2023 Draft with the fewest picks (4), and the lowest Total Draft Pool ($3.9M). They don't however own the lowest Top 51 Draft Pool. That belongs to the Cleveland Browns, who will only need $1.9M of offseason cap space to sign their 8 picks (2 3rds, 2 4ths, 2 5ths, 1 6th, 1 7th).
• The average Draft Pool heading into Thursday is $10.5M, while the average Top 51 Draft Pool comes in just under $7.3M. NFL teams have on average, $12.2M of Top 51 cap space right now.
• If your team has more draft pool than cap space right now - don't overthink it. Most teams (especially those in contention) like to keep their cap space close to the vest this time of year, knowing there will always be a contract or two they can restructure, trade, or outright release when the summer months start to come into focus.

RELATED:
2023 NFL Draft Tracker w/ Projected Contracts
2023 NFL Salary Cap Tracker

With news that OF Bryan Reynolds has agreed to an historic 8 year, $106.75M extension with the Pittsburgh Pirates, we took some time to identify each MLB Franchise's largest total value contract of all-time.

RELATED: All-Time MLB Contracts

Notable Notes

• Three franchises (Oakland, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City) have yet to sign a player to $90M+.
• 9 franchises have a $300M+ contract under their belts
• 17 franchises (56%) have a $200M+ contract under their belts
• 7 of these contracts were signed for 2023
• 12 of these contracts have been signed in the past 2 years
• Oakland's last "largest ever" contract was signed in 2004
• Only two of these contracts belong to pitchers (Greinke, Strasburg)

The Philadelphia Eagles made good on their offseason promise, locking in QB1 Jalen Hurts to an historic 5 year, $255M contract extension this week. The deal keeps Hurts under contract through the 2028 season, and includes $110M fully guaranteed at signing.

New Money Total Value

The $255M of new money chimes in as the 3rd largest contract in NFL history, behind Patrick Mahomes $450M unicorn extension in Kansas City, and Josh Allen’s $258M contract from the Bills. When factoring in $15M of additional incentives, and the $4.304M Hurts was owed in the final year of his rookie contract, the deal can max out at nearly $275M over the next 6 seasons.

Largest New Money NFL Contracts

1. Patrick Mahomes, $450M
2. Josh Alen, $258M
3. Jalen Hurts, $255M
4. Russell Wilson, $242.5M
5. Kyler Murray, $230.5M

RELATED: TOP NFL CONTRACTS

Including Deshaun Watson’s $230M contract with the Browns, Hurts’ deal becomes the 6th contract in NFL history to offer $200M+.

Small Signing Bonus?

Hurts’ $23,294,000 signing bonus ranks 35th among active contracts, 13th among active QB deals. Why so low? The Eagles, as per usual, have structured this contract with multiple early March bonuses that can/will prorate over a maximum 5 years for cap purposes, and keep the cash flowing for Jalen every offseason. But it still means less Year 1 money than most would anticipate for a Super Bowl runner-up quarterback.

Largest Signing Bonuses (VIEW ALL)

1. Dak Prescott, $66M (franchise tag extension)
2. Matthew Stafford, $60M (veteran extension)
3. Russell Wilson, $50M (veteran extension)
4. Deshaun Watson, $44.965M (veteran extension)
5. Aaron Rodgers, $40.8M (veteran extension)

11th: Jalen Hurts, $24.3M (rookie extension)

Guarantee at Signing

Jalen Hurts’ new deal comes with $110M fully guaranteed at signing, 3rd most in NFL history and by far the most ever for a rookie extension.

Top Guarantees at Signing (VIEW ALL)

1. Deshaun Watson, $230M (veteran extension)
2. Russell Wilson, $124M (veteran extension)
3. Jalen Hurts, $110M (rookie extension)
4. Kyler Murray, $103.3M (rookie extension)
5. Aaron Rodgers, $101.5M (veteran extension)

Hurts out-gains Murray by almost $7M in terms of upfront guarantee, with Josh Allen’s $100M the next rookie extension figure to compare to.

Practical Guarantees

What’s the difference? Guaranteed at signing means just that - the second Jalen Hurts signs this contract, it’ll be nearly impossible for him not to earn the $110M fully guaranteed. The remaining $69M is guaranteed for injury at signing, but will soon become fully guaranteed. Specifically, another $16.5M will lock in next March, an additional $30.8M will fully guarantee in March 2025, and another $22M will follow suit in March of 2026. 4.5 of 6 years are practically guaranteed.

Top Practical Guarantees (VIEW ALL)

1. Deshaun Watson, $230M (veteran extension)
2. Jalen Hurts, $179.3M (rookie extension)
3. Russell Wilson, $161M (veteran extension)
4. Kyler Murray, $159.7M (rookie extension)
5. Aaron Rodgers, $150.8M (veteran extension)

In looking just at the Hurts/Murray matchup, Jalen secures almost $20M more than Kyler with this latest blockbuster extension, and based on team success alone - rightfully so.

Salary Cap Analysis

With multiple bonuses, comes early cap relief for the Eagles - as per usual. Jalen Hurts’ contract carries the following cap hits as of now:

2023: $6.154M
2024: $13.55M
2025: $21.76M
2026: $31.7M
2027: $45.8M
2028: $54.1M
2029-2032 Void Years ($8.16M of initial dead cap, plenty more to come)

Hurts' $6.15M cap hit for 2023 currently ranks 20th among signed Quarterbacks. Any QB drafted in the Top 5 this April will carry a larger cap figure than Jalen Hurts for 2023. If the league salary cap increases its usual $10M up to $235M next season, Hurts will account for just 5.7% of it. If it jumps to $245M in 2025, he'll account for 8.8% in that season. To say these are value figures out of the gate would be an understatement.

Cash Flow Analysis

Year 1: $24.3M
Year 2: $40M
Year 3: $42M
Year 4: $51M
Year 5: $51M
Year 6: $51M

Hurts’ $64.3M 2-year cash ranks 10th among active Quarterback contracts, but is actually $30M more than Patrick Mahomes secured through his first two extension seasons. In terms of 3-year money, the $106.3M to be earned here currently ranks 8th, $11M more than the Bills are handing Josh Allen to start his extension. Only 4 quarterbacks have contracts with more 4-year cash than Jalen Hurts: Watson, Wilson, Prescott, & Daniel Jones - though the last two aren't guaranteed to get that far.

Potential Out & Fluid Dead Cap Warning

Don’t get sucked into thinking that the Eagles can walk away from Hurts after 2026 with just a slap on the wrist to their cash and cap pocketbooks. It’s not that simple.

The dead cap that appears on the contract right now only applies to elements of the deal that are fully guaranteed at signing ($110M + the carry over signing bonus proration from the rookie contract).

By the time we get to March of 2027 (presumably when the two sides could be looking to part), another $49.785M option bonus will have vested (adding $39.9M of bonus dead cap), & $22M of 2027 salary will already have become fully guaranteed. That’s an additional $61.8M of dead cap, raising the 2027 total to $106.5M.

What about after 2027? $89.702M of dead cap
What about when the deal concludes after 2028? $86.5M of dead cap

Concluding Thoughts

It’s easy to get caught up in the “how do we get out of this” conversation almost immediately when dealing with major contracts, but this Jalen Hurts contract should be celebrated for what it is: A ton of money for the player, and 6 years of predetermined tenable salary cap hits for the team. If the Eagles do absolutely nothing to this contract but exercise the option bonuses and let things play out as they will, a $54.1M cap hit in 2028 most likely won’t even represent 20% of the league salary cap that season. Philly’s style of contract structuring bakes the “restructure” into the cake. The room to wiggle comes with the option bonuses themselves. If at any point in time the team feels concerned about the future of Hurts as their starting QB, they can opt to decline one of those bonuses, take on an absurdly large base salary/cap hit for a year, and then push out of the contract, despite what will certainly be a devastating dead cap hit in the following season.

The best case scenario here (again, veering positive not negative), is that Hurts continues to shine in the role, and after 2026, he and the Eagles decide to rip up the remaining $102M, and convert it into a new, bigger, better, more complicated contract for all to enjoy. Keeping in mind of course that all of those vested bonus prorations in 2027-2030 will need to carry over to the new deal as well.

As the 2023 NFL draft approaches we dive back into 5 years of #1 overall selections, including the respective rookie contract, and path each player as taken since.

RECENT #1 OVERALL PICKS

2023

TBD
4 years, $41.2, $26.9M signing bonus + 5th year option

• First 6 picks should guarantee $30M+
• First 11 picks should guarantee $20M+
• First 22 picks should guarantee $15M+
• 31st pick (forfeit) should guarantee just north of $12.5M
• $2.5M drop off between Round 1 finish + Round 2 start

» 2023 Rookie Contract Projections

2022

Travon Walker (DE, JAX)
4 years, $37.3M; $24.3M signing bonus + 5th year option
Finished 2022 as the 90th graded edge defender according to PFF, posting 3.5 sacks, 49 tackles and a forced fumble in 15 games. He was handedly outplayed by #2 overall Aidan Hutchinson in Year 1, but it’s early.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2021

Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
4 years, $36.7M; $24.1M signing bonus + 5th year option
2021 & 2022 were night and day scenarios for Lawrence, who improved from 32nd to 11th in QB grading according to PFF. He’ll become extension eligible for the first time after 2023, and all signs point to a brinks truck right now.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2020

Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
4 years, $36.1M; $23.8M signing bonus + 5th year option
Got off to a slow start, but, outside of rings, 2021 & 2022 couldn’t have gone better for Burrow. He’s the back to back reigning #1 graded QB according to PFF, completing nearly 70% of his passes with a 104 rating in that span. He’s extension eligible as we speak, with a $50M+ per year, $200M+ guarantee in his immediate future.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2019

Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
4 years, $35.6M; $23.5M signing bonus + 5th year option
Murray improved each of his first three seasons, banking a rookie of the year and two pro bowl nods during that time frame. He leveraged that build-up (and a mini offseason holdout) into a 5 year, $230.5M extension last July. He earned $30M last season (instead of $5.4M), and he’ll earn $39M for 2023 (instead of $29M).

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

2018

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
4 years, $32.6M; $21.8M signing bonus + 5th year option
Baker’s still trying to figure it out, and might get a legitimate shot with the Buccaneers in 2023. But as far as QB value on rookie contracts go, this one didn’t hit. There are flashes of capabilities, but without the consistency required to manage an offense for 18+ weeks in any given season. Baker cashed in $48.4M across his first 5 seasons with Cleveland, Carolina, & LAR, and he’ll look to revive his career on a 1 year, $4M fully guaranteed contract with Tampa.

» FULL DRAFT CLASS

NFL #1 PICK HISTORY

• 34 of the last 87 #1 picks have been QBs
• Since 1990 only 8 #1 overall picks have been defensive players
• It’s been 27 years since a WR has been taken #1 overall (Keyshawn Johnson, 1996)
• It’s been 28 years since a RB has been taken #1 overall (Ki-Jana Carter, 1995)
• This will (presumably) be Carolina’s 2nd #1 overall pick (2011, Cam Newton)
• This would have been the Bears’ 3rd #1 overall pick and the first since 1947.
• Matthew Stafford (2009) is the longest tenured #1 pick still active in the league
• The 4 players drafted #1 overall after Stafford (Bradford, Newton, Luck, Fisher) are all presumably out of the league. It’ll be 5 straight if Jadeveon Clowney doesn’t garner a 2023 contract.
• #1 overall picks since 2000 without a Pro Bowl nod: Courtney Brown, JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford, Baker Mayfield, Travon Walker

DRAFTED QBS SINCE 2018

With 3, maybe 4 QBs projected to be taken in the first round this Thurdsay, we'll look back at where QBs have been selected since 2018, and which are still vying for starting roles in the league.

2018 Quarterbacks (13)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:5, 2:0, 3:1, 4:1, 5:1, 6:2, 7:3

• Starters: 2 (Allen, Lamar)
• Competing: 2 (Baker, Darnold)
• Backups: 3 (Rudolph, White, Woodside)
• Out: 6

2019 Quarterbacks (11)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:3, 2:1, 3:1, 4:2, 5:2, 6:2, 7:0

• Starters: 2 (Murray, Jones)
• Competing: 1 (Minshew)
• Backups: 5 (Lock, Grier, Stidham, Stick, McSorley)
• Out: 3

2020 Quarterbacks (12)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:4, 2:1, 3:0, 4:2, 5:1, 6:1, 7:3

• Starters: 5 (Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts)
• Competing: 0
• Backups: 3 (Eason, Luton, Fromm)
• Out: 4

2021 Quarterbacks (10)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:5, 2:1, 3:2, 4:1, 5:0, 6:1, 7:0

• Starters: 3 (Lawrence, Fields, M. Jones)
• Competing: 3 (Trask, Mills, Ehlinger)
• Backups: 4 (Lance, Wilson, Mond, Book)
• Out: 0

2022 Quarterbacks (9)

ROUND BREAKDOWN: 1:1, 2:0, 3:3, 4:1, 5:1, 6:0, 7:3

Starters: 4 (Pickett, Ridder, Howell, Purdy)

Competing: 0

Backups: 5 (Willis, Corral, Zappe, Oladukun, Thompson)

Out: 0

S C.J. Moore

Signed a 2 year, $4.5M contract this past March that included $2.5M fully guaranteed at signing (a $1.4M signing bonus + $1.1M 2023 base salary). If his indefinite suspension of at least 1 year is upheld, and the Lions decide to keep him rostered, Moore’s contract will toll to 2024-2025, and the $1.1M salary guarantee will void. If the Lions decide to move on, it’s extremely likely that they’ll push to have his signing bonus repaid, and they’ll receive a full cap credit for his $1.8M cap hit this season. Moore was going to compete for a depth role at the safety position this summer, so it’s a toss-up if Detroit will keep him on the books through this suspension.
UPDATE: The Lions have released Moore and will certainly look to recoup his $1.4M signing bonus immediately.

WR Quintez Cephus

Was entering the final year of his rookie contract in Detroit, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.01M. If his indefinite suspension of at least 1 year and the Lions decide to keep him around, his salary will toll to 2024. The Lions can push to recoup $76,072 of his signing bonus (the 2023 proration), and gain a cap credit for that after the 2023 season. Cephus was projecting as a Top 6 WR for the Lions in 2023, so there’s a chance he’s kept on the books for a chance to compete in 2024. 
UPDATE: The Lions have released Cephus.

DE Shaka Toney

Was entering Year 3 of his rookie contract with the Commanders, set to earn a non-guaranteed $940,000. If his indefinite suspension of at least 1 year is upheld, and the Commanders decide to keep him rostered, his 2023 & 2024 salaries will toll to 2024 & 2025. Washington can push to recoup $23,238 of his signing bonus (the 2023 proration), and gain a cap credit for that after the 2023 season. Currently 6th on the depth chart among Washington DEs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Commanders move on quickly here.

WR Jameson Williams

Missed 11 weeks of 2022 due to injury, and is now expected to miss 6 more of 2023 due to his involvement in this gambling violation. The 22 year old was set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.5M this season, with another 2 years, $5.3M plus a 5th year option in 2026 still remaining on his rookie deal. Williams will forfeit just under $500,000 for the 6 weeks missed in 2023. Furthermore, the salary guarantee on his remaining $6.87M will now void. The Lions may also look to recoup $823,290 of his signing bonus (6 weeks of his 2023 proration) per this suspension.

WR Stanley Berryhill

Signed a 1 year, $870,000 non-guaranteed reserve/future contract to remain in Detroit this past January. He was a depth piece and a training camp body heading into the summer, but will now likely be moved on from with a 6-game suspension attached to his 2023 season. If he sticks around, he’ll forfeit $290,000 in salary for the time missed.

Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)

Burrow is guaranteed $35M over the next two seasons in Cincinnati, but he’s done more than enough to garner an immediate extension in his first offseason of eligibility. He projects to a 6 year, $275M contract in our system, which would mean $310M in total value over the next 8 seasons. Kyler Murray’s 7 year total contract averages just under $38M per year (with $219M of his $265M likely to be earned). Will Burrow accept a deal of similar format but at a $40M total contract AAV (7/280, 8/320)?

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)

Hurts steps out of a Super Bowl runner-up season and into a contract year with the Eagles, becoming extension eligible for the first time. Philly hasn’t been shy about their intent to lock up their QB1 this offseason, and there’s a 6 year, $265M ($44M per year) valuation for him in our system. It’s logical to assume the deal approaches $48M per year when all said and done however. UPDATE: Hurts agreed to a 5 year, $255M extension

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

Herbert is guaranteed $33.7M over the next two seasons, coming off of a season where he completed north of 68% of his passes, despite career lows in TDs, Yards/Game, and Passer Rating. Herbert’s Chargers haven’t found the team success that Burrow’s Bengals or Hurts’ Eagles have yet, but that shouldn’t keep LA from locking in their QB1 this offseason. Herbert holds a $44M valuation in our system, projected to a 6 year, $265M extension (8 years, $300M total value).

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

It would be wrong to leave Lamar off of this list, despite the idea that an extension this offseason is becoming less likely every day. Let’s just keep this one simple for now: Take the $32M franchise tag figure, convert it into a signing bonus, and take on $100M more - fully guaranteed through 2025. Use void years and a few cap conversions to keep the annual hit tenable, lower the risk slightly for Baltimore, and give Lamar Jackson a chance to reset this whole process in 2026 - his age 29 season.

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)

Barkley won’t be joining the Giants this spring while his $10M franchise tag remains unsigned. We’ve laid out a projected look at what a multi-year extension going forward might look like here: https://www.spotrac.com/news/next-contract-saquon-barkley-1847/

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

Lamb has put together back to back strong campaigns in Dallas, setting himself up to be the next notable rookie extension at the WR position. He carries a 4 year, $90M valuation in our system to date, though A.J. Brown’s $25M per year deal in Philly has to be in the conversation here.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)

The 2020 2nd rounder enters a contract year with the Colts, coming off of a 96 catch, 900 yard, 3 TD season in 2022. He’s caught 185 balls over the past two seasons, despite an inconsistent Colts offense (to say the least). Christian Kirk’s 4 year, $72M deal with the Jags is a strong comp right now, though any team that values him as a true WR1 going forward will almost certainly be asked to go north of $20M per year.

Dexter Lawrence (DT, NYG)

Lawrence enters his 5th-year option season with the Giants, set to earn a fully guaranteed $12.407M in 2023. He’s coming off of a career year, posting 7.5 sacks, 68 tackles, and 2 forced fumbles last season. Recent deals for Jeffery Simmons & Daron Payne have strengthened the defensive tackle market, raising Lawrence’s calculated valuation to a near $20M per year. A 4 year, $80M contract extension should be considered a floor for the 25-year-old this offseason.

Quinnen WIlliams (DT, NYJ)

Williams has combined for 18 sacks, 104 tackles and 2 forced fumbles in the past two seasons, putting him in line for a top of the market extension in NY. He finished 2022 as PFF’s #4 overall interior defender, currently projecting to a 4 year, $106M contract extension in our system.

Nick Bosa (DE, SF)

It’s been a quiet year for edge rushers, with much of the attention being subverted to the interior defensive line in recent weeks. Nick Bosa’s extension in San Francisco should quickly change that, as the 25-year-old carries a baseline valuation north of $28M right now. He’s entering his 5th-year option season, with $17.85M fully guaranteed in front of him. Will a 5 year, $145M offer, $105M+ guaranteed get this one done?

Saquon Barkley’s now public decision to hold out indefinitely from his $10M franchise tag shouldn’t come as much of a surprise - and it comes with no penalty as well. As a technically unsigned player, Barkley (and all other franchise tagged players) are considered not under contract, and therefore have nothing to hold out from. They can report prior to Week 1 of the regular season, and still be eligible to earn their full franchise tag value. In other words - this could take awhile.

The play here is to eventually secure a multi-year extension, something Barkley and the Giants have been working on for the better part of a year to date. We’ll take a look at the figures involved here, including a projected contract that could solve this issue.

The Current Running Back Market

I was inclined to leave this blank for effect, but the truth here is that Barkley’s contract is important to how this position progresses over the course of the next few offseasons (albeit slight progression).

Christian McCaffrey signed his $16M per year extension almost exactly 3 full years ago. That’s how long the top average salary at this position has been held, and there’s no sign of it toppling in the coming months either.

Alvin Kamara ($15M) & Dalvin Cook’s ($12.6M) contracts were signed in September of 2020. Derrick Henry ($12.5M) signed in July of 2020. And Nick Chubb ($12.2M) signed in July of 2021. Ezekiel Elliott’s ($15M) recently extinguished contract stemmed from September of 2019.

To say things have been trending downward is an understatement.

RELATED: Highest Average Paid Running Backs

But the guarantees have improved, right? Those same Top 5 average salary names also still hold the Top 5 guarantee values as well. On average, 52% of the Top 10 active running back contracts are practically guaranteed.

So where does Barkley fall in all of this?

Saquon Barkley’s Value

Our latest valuation for Saquon Barkley (analyzing his 2021-2022 campaigns), places him at a $12.3M per year figure, or a 4 year, near $50M total value contract. If we take that 52% guaranteed number from above, we’re talking about $26M practically guaranteed, or 2 years, $26M practically speaking.

The easy way to contrast and compare here is to base our valuation against his current reality - two franchise tags. His 2023 tender comes in at $10,091,000. A second franchise tag is calculated as 120% of that number, or $12,109,200. These two tags combine for $22.2M.

So in theory, our fair market valuation for Barkley only represents a $4M guarantee increase over a simple two-tag plan.

Where does the $26M rank in terms of other top running backs?

1. McCaffrey, $38.1MM
2. Kamara, $33.8M
3. Cook, $28.1M
4. Henry, $25.5M
5. Chubb, $20M

Formulating a Projected Contract

We’re going to get a little creative here:
A) Because the Giants have shown that they’re not going to overload any single contract - including their QB1s.
B) Because it’s wrong to do a piece like this and just ignore the injury history and red flags that come with extending Saquon Barkley - despite his outstanding comeback season in 2022.

Here’s the compromise - a little less on the full guarantee, a little more on the total value, and even more available via active roster bonus & attainable - but not likely to be earned for cap purposes - incentives.

Here’s what a 4 year, $52M contract, $13M per year, $24M fully guaranteed at signing might look like.

The deal carries a $5.25M cap hit for the upcoming season, nearly cutting his current tag price in half - while paying out $14.25M cash - an increase of $4.25M. Barkley has a chance to make $26M over the next two seasons, aligning with the $13M per year AAV, as long as he's active for all 17 weeks each year. The Giants have been aggressively building in per game active bonuses even for players without Barkley's injury history - so it's a lock that they'll need to be factored in here.

Barring a cap conversion (potentially with the $6M fully guaranteed roster bonus due next March), the Giants will be able to walk away from this contract if needed after the 2024 season, with a $6M dead cap hit, freeing up $9.5M of space immediately.

Additionally we've factored in some common incentive offerings, all of which are not likely to be earned for cap purposes out of the gate. Barkley accounted for 1,650 yards from scrimmage last season, so we've started the yards package at 1,651 and forward. He accounted for just under 80% of the Giants offensive snaps last season (83% in his outstanding rookie year), so assuming he can hit 80%, and the Giants clinch a playoff spot - he can cash another $500,000 per year. In total there are $2M of available incentives annually on this deal - a huge number based on what we've seen in recent running back contracts, but something that I believe the top players at this position should be fighting for. If the guarantees and base pay isn't going to increase at the rate that the rest of the league is - these players should be compensated if and when they are great - and many of them are. Oh, and by the way - should Barkley play out all 4 seasons on this projected contract AND max out the $2M per year of incentives, it becomes a 4 year, $60M contract, or $15M per year. McCaffrey's number still stands alone.

Joel Embiid (-1000)

Embiid appears to have run away with this contest over the course of the past month, though there’s still a viable case to be made for any of these three candidates now that the regular season has come to an end.

Statistically speaking, Embiid wins the scoring title at 33.1 points per game. He finished 7th in rebounds (10.2), 7th in blocks (1.7), & 49th in assists (4.2). He averaged 34.6 minutes in 66 games played this season. When factoring in a few more advanced metrics, he ranked 2nd in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) at 31.4 behind only Jokic (31.5), 3rd in Usage (37%) behind Giannis & Jokic, and 14th in True Shooting Percentage (.655)

Contractually speaking, Embiid has now completed his rookie extension, a deal that paid out $146.8M across the 2018-2022 seasons. His previously agreed to veteran extension will begin next season, and currently projects to $210.1M through the 2026-2027 campaign (assumes a $134M league salary cap next season). The 29-year-old will see salaries of $47M, $50M, $54M, plus a $58M player option over the next four years, pushing him well over the $300M career earnings mark.

Nikola Jokic (+1200)

The back-to-back defending MVP probably saw his chances extinguished with a late season calf injury (and a bit of load management) down the stretch, but it doesn’t curtail what amounts to another outstanding season from the 28-year-old.

Statistically speaking, Jokic finished 18th in points per game (24.5), tied for 2nd in total rebounds (11.8), 3rd in assists (9.8), & 20th in steals (1.3). He averaged 33.7 minutes in 69 games played this regular season. In more advanced terms, he led the league in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) for the 3rd straight season at 31.5, led the league in True Shooting Percentage (.701) and was 33rd in Usage (27.2%). Joker was 10th & 21st in Usage in each of his past two MVP seasons, so it’s fair to note that Denver dialed back his touches a bit this year as the Nuggets got a little deeper and healthier as a unit.

Contractually speaking, Jokic has now completed his rookie extension, a deal that paid out $145.8M across 2018-2022. He steps into a projected 5 year, $272M supermax veteran extension (based on a $134M league salary cap next season), that includes salaries of $47M, $50M, $54M, $58M, & a $62M player option through 2027-28. He’ll be 32-years-old when a decision on that option salary must be made.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200)

The 2018-19 & 2019-20 league MVP likely falls a little short this time around, despite another highly productive year personally, and #1 seed in the East for his Milwaukee Bucks.

Statistically speaking, Giannis finished 5th in scoring at 31.1 points per game, 3rd in rebounds at 11.8, and 26th in assists at 5.7. He averaged 32.1 minutes across 63 regular season games played. In more advanced terms, Giannis finished 3rd in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) at 29.0, behind both Embiid & Jokic, 62nd in True Shooting % (.605), and was afforded the highest Usage Rate in the league at 38.8% - the highest rate since James Harden’s 40.5 for Houston back in 2018-19.

Contractually speaking, Giannis is locked up for another 2 years, $94.3M, with a $52M player option built into the 2025-26 campaign, his age 31 season. An extension discussion likely won’t come until the 2024 offseason, when Antetokounmpo will be essentially entering a contract year with Milwaukee. 

In the Mix

Jayson Tatum

Scored 30.1 points in nearly 37 minutes across 74 games. Posted career years in points, rebounds assists, 2 point percentage and turnovers. His contract holds 2 years, $67.4M through 2024-25, plus a $37M player option in 2025-2026.

Luka Doncic

Was the scoring title runner-up at 32.4 points, finding over 36 minutes of action in 66 games. He was 6th in assists (8.0), and 24th in rebounds (8.6), despite the Mavericks falling apart down the stretch and ultimately missing the postseason. His contract carries 3 years, $129M guaranteed through the 2025-26 season, with a $49M player option in 2026-2027 his age 27 year.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Finished 4th in scoring with at 31.4 points per at a 51% field goal percentage rate in 68 regular season games. His free throw percentage also shot over 90% for the first time in his career. He'll enter Year 2 of a 5 year $179M contract, with $148M fully guaranteed through the 2026-27 season (his age 28 year).

MVP + Title?

The league MVP has won the title that same season 24 times, or 35% of the time. While this seems a fairly big number, it hasn’t been done since Steph in 2014-15.

Opening Day Cash Payrolls

From a straight cash perspective the Mets, Yankees, & Padres (all teams you’ve probably heard a lot about this winter) lead the league entering the 2023 season.

The Mets bring an historic $334M guaranteed cash payroll into the year, $60M more than the MLB leading Dodgers accounted for in 2022.

On the side of the spectrum the Oakland A’s project to carry a $55M cash payroll into the year, including 18 players on near minimum pre-arbitration salaries. The Orioles (est. $66M), and Pirates (est. $72M) round out the bottom of the payroll list for now.

2023 MLB Cash Payrolls

Opening Day Tax Payrolls

Obviously nothing is complete until the season is complete, but an opening day span across the league shows us a range of CBT payrolls like we’ve never seen before. Tax payrolls are based on the average salary of a contract, not necessarily the amount of cash a team is spending this season. The MLB tax threshold for the 2023 season is $233,000,000.

The Mets lead the way at a projected $376M. If this holds, they’ll owe a whopping $103M bill, bringing their total expenditures to nearly $480M for the season.

7 teams project to be over the threshold to start the year: Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Blue Jays, Dodgers, & Braves.

On the low side, 4 teams open the season projecting to account for less than $100M of tax salary: Athletics, Orioles, Pirates, & Reds. 

Opening Day Tax Payroll Projections

Top 2023 Salaries

We enter the 2023 season with 52 players set to earn at least $20M for the upcoming year. 16 of those will earn $30M+, while 3 (Scherzer, Verlander, Judge) will reel in $40M over the next 6 months.

Top Salary Per Position
Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer (NYM) / Justin Verlander (NYM): $43,333,333
Relief PItcher: Edwin Diaz (NYM): $19,650,000
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (PHI): $23,875,000
1st Baseman: Paul Goldschmidt (STL): $26,000,000
2nd Baseman: Jose Altuve (HOU): $26,000,000
Shortstop: Carlos Correa (MIN): $36,000,000
3rd Baseman: Anthony Rendon (LAA): $38,000,000
Outfield: Aaron Judge (NYY): $40,000,000
Outfield: Mike Trout (LAA): $35,450,000
Outfield: Kris Bryant (COL): $27,000,000

Top Positional Spenders

Starting Pitching: Despite letting Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, & Taijuan Walker walk in free agency, the Mets carry a $116M payroll for their 5 projected starting pitchers. The Reds enter 2023 with around $6M allocated to their rotation.

Relief Pitching: The Astros have around $42M allocated to their bullpen, and will rely on it heavily in 2023. The Angels also bulked up their relief pitching experience pool this winter.

Infielders: Despite a starting shortstop making his MLB debut, the Yankees hold baseball’s most expensive infield for 2023, with nearly $72M allocated to their 8 available players.

Outfielders: A splash contract for CF Brandon Nimmo soars the Mets to the top outfield spending spot, with over $50M allocated to Nimmo, Starling Marte, & Mark Canha.

Notable 2024 Free Agents

The list of pending free agents for next winter isn’t quite as strong as the one we just went through, but there are still plenty of names to pull out here - especially if we include potential opt-outs. Browse the full list here: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2024

However, this is and will remain the Year of Ohtani. We’ve never seen a player like this in the field, and unless something goes terribly wrong over the next 6 months, we’re going to experience a contract like we’ve never seen before as well.

We’ve evaluated Shohei Ohtani from every angle this winter, and as it currently stands he’ll enter the season as a $230M pitcher, and a $330M hitter. So putting a $500M total valuation on the player as a whole certainly tracks.

Will he respond to the spotlight in the same manner that Aaron Judge did 1-year ago? Baseball enthusiasts across the world can only dream.

Amidst continued contract turmoil between Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and looming extensions for Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, & Jalen Hurts, let’s readdress Patrick Mahomes’ 10 year, $450 million deal in Kansas City.

Mahomes is entering Year 4 of his 12 year, $480M total value contract with the Chiefs, set to earn $40.45M for the 2023 season. In total, the deal contains 9 years, $414.55M remaining to be earned. But just how much of that will Mahomes actually earn?

Hopefully this helps shed a little light…

If he is released during the 2023 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $134.3M of dead cap, $117.3M of which is cash. ($183M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2024 league year (Age 29)
The Chiefs would be left with $97.6M of dead cap, $77.4M of which is cash. ($183M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2024 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $100M of dead cap, $79.9M of which is cash. ($186M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2025 league year (Age 30)
The Chiefs would be left with $53.5M of dead cap, $41.95M of which is cash. ($186M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2025 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $90M of dead cap, $80.85M of which is cash. ($225M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2026 league year (Age 31)
The Chiefs would be left with $43.7M of dead cap, $38.9M of which is cash. ($225M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2026 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $96.1M of dead cap, $91.35M of which is cash. ($277M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2027 league year (Age 32)
The Chiefs would be left with $51.8M of dead cap, $49.4M of which is cash. ($277M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2027 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $106.8M of dead cap, $104.4M of which is cash. ($332M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2028 league year (Age 33)
The Chiefs would be left with $44.45M of dead cap, $44.45M of which is cash. ($332M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2028 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $89.4M of dead cap, $89.4M of which is cash. ($377M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2029 league year (Age 34)
The Chiefs would be left with $44.95M of dead cap, $44.95M of which is cash. ($377M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2029 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $95.4M of dead cap, $95.4M of which is cash. ($429M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2030 league year (Age 35)
The Chiefs would be left with $50.4M of dead cap, $50.4M of which is cash. ($429M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2030 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $64.35M of dead cap, $64.35M of which is cash. ($441M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2031 league year (Age 36)
The Chiefs would be left with $13.9M of dead cap, $13.9M of which is cash. ($441M / $480M earned)

Notable Notes

It’s crucial to understand that the dead cap figures noted above are based on the contract as it stands today. Every future restructure/cap conversion will increase those figures exponentially.

With that said, the first real considerable “out” in this deal comes before the 2026 league year. If the contract remains as is (it won’t), Kansas City will be left with a $43.7M dead cap hit ($39M of which will be straight cash to Mahomes). If we assume a $255M league salary cap for 2026 (low estimate), this dead hit represents just over 17% of that figure. For reference, Aaron Rodgers’ traded dead cap hit will represent almost 18% of the 2023 league cap.

There’s no point in time where Patrick Mahomes can be released without the Chiefs having to fork over a pile of future cash.

If we lop off the 2031 season ($38.5M of that cash doesn’t vest until March 2031), Mahomes is staring down 8 years, $376M from 2023-2030, an average of exactly $47M per year. Even if the salary cap rises to $300M during this span, Mahomes adjusted AAV will still live north of 15% of that figure.

Is this a fully guaranteed contract? No. Is this a creative way to make sure a star QB makes a ton of money without having to pump all $500M into escrow out of the gate? Yes. Are there a few difficult but doable outs in the middle of this deal should the Chiefs need to bail? Yes. Will salary conversions make those outs more difficult? Yes.

Will Mahomes stay in this contract through 2030? I wouldn’t say it’s likely. The QB market isn’t going to plummet, so the numbers coming in around him are going to be tantalizing in a few seasons. The 2027 league year seems a prudent line of demarcation for both sides here. 1) Mahomes will be set to earn just under $60M cash that season. 2) $104.4M of future salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2027. Taking that cash and converting it into a newly structured contract that better aligns with the current QB market can be beneficial for both sides.