Updated: 4/3/23 @ 2:45pm

More “Super Tax” Penalties

What Is It:

There are going to be even more penalties on teams that exceed what we’re going to now call the “Super Tax”, which is the second tax apron at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. These penalties include: not being able to send cash out in trade, restrictions on when they can trade first-round picks, not being able to sign players on the buyout market and not being able to take on salary in trades.

Analysis:

The league is doing what they can to curb the spending of the most expensive teams. We already covered some of the potentially unintended consequences, but here’s another set to consider.

If you can’t add salary via a trade, will we see a $20 million player given a $30 million, simply so a team could trade him for a $25 million player? That’s one way to start working around it. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, because the player benefits. But it could be a workaround for teams. And NBA teams are really good at figuring out workarounds with the cap and CBA.

Players are allowed to invest in NBA and WNBA teams, as well as partner with gambling and cannabis companies.

What Is It:

This one is pretty straight forward. Or, it seems to be, at least. Players will be able to become more partners with teams, as opposed to contract employees. And players will be able to branch out and become partners with business that were previously prohibited.

Analysis:

Investing in the NBA and WNBA is a great idea. If you’re invested, you’re likely to do more to grow your product and your team. That should be a rising tide lifts all boats scenario.

Partnering with gambling companies is a little more of a slippery slope. If it’s simply “Hey! I’m Player X! Do your betting with Company Y!” then it’s fine. If it becomes “Hey! I’m Player X! Bet on me to score over 20 points tonight!” then things could get really messy. When we have full details, it seems likely we’ll find out it’s more like the former than the latter.

We didn’t touch on it previously, so we will here…marijuana is no longer a prohibited substance in the new CBA. With where things are headed, as more and more of the country legalizes marijuana use, that makes sense. And if it’s not a prohibited substance, why can’t a player endorse it? This is common sense in action.

Revenue from licensing will be added to the Basketball Related Income (BRI) calculation

What Is It:

Previously, any money the NBA itself or NBA teams made from licensing agreements went directly to the owners. The players will now get a share of that, through the BRI process.

Analysis:

This seems like a no-brainer. The NBA and its teams have no value without the players. If you’re going to license your logos or team names to be used somewhere, the players should get a cut of that.

Second Round Pick Signing Exception

What Is It:

Teams will now have an exception to sign their second-round picks. In today’s world, if a team wants to sign a player selected in the second round to more than the two-year, minimum salary deal allowed by the minimum exception, they have limited ways to do so. They can give the player come of their cap space, if they are a room team. Or they can carve out a portion of their Mid-Level Exception to sign the player. Now, they’ll be able to sign their second-round picks to deals without having to give up cap space or part of their MLE.

Analysis:

This is a good change. As much as we’ve all enjoyed picking on the Los Angeles Lakers for bungling this time and time again, this will help everyone. Teams are helped because they can use their full MLE, or full cap space, to sign veterans, while also still signing second-round players. Veteran players don’t lose out on a chunk of money, because teams had to conserve that space to sign second-round players.

Unanswered questions: Is this one exception per team per season? Is this allowable for any second-round pick, without restrictions? Can you still use cap space or a different exception to give the player even more salary or a longer deal? Those will all get answered when we have the actual CBA.

10% Cap Smoothing

What Is It:

In order to avoid another cap spike like in 2016, when the cap went from $70 million to $94.1 million, the NBA will smooth those increases. This is likely to matter most in 2025, when the first season with the new media rights deals will begin.

Analysis:

This is a good thing. Now that the NBA and NBPA have a better working relationship, they can trust that no one will get cheated out of money. A cap spike ends up disproportionately impacting that one year’s free agent class. They benefit greatly, while following free agent classes are often less with less money, because everyone capped out the year prior.

Smoothing in this increase will allow for fewer massive contracts that immediately turn sour. And it will spread the wealth amongst several free agent classes.

Elimination of Designated Player Roster Restrictions

What Is It:

Under the current CBA, teams are limited in how many Designated Players they can have on their roster at a given time. Currently, teams are limited to two Designated Rookie Scale Extension players and two Designated Veteran Players. In addition, team could only have one Designated Player that they acquired via trade. These restrictions are being eliminated moving forward.

Analysis:

As with a lot of these changes, things are being set up to allow teams greater flexibility in retaining their own players. This change is another good one. Simply because you hit on three, or more, draft picks over a period of time, you shouldn’t be punished for wanting to re-sign all of them for the most you can. This removes that, while still putting in the “Super Tax” caveats that restrict team building, should your team get too expensive.

MLE and Room Exception to increase in size

What Is It:

The Non-Taxpayer MLE is expected to increase by 7.5%, while the Room Exception is expected to increase by 30%. It’s expected that these increases are on top of how much these exceptions will have increased in correlation with how much the cap increases.

Analysis:

This is another good change, as these exceptions will become even more valuable tools for those non-taxpaying teams. One unanswered question: Is this a one-time releveling, and then things will go back to the standard increase with as the cap increases? Or will this be phased in over a period of time?

Teams will be able to use signing exceptions as trade exceptions

What Is It:

In today’s world, a team can only use their MLE to sign a player to a contract. The only way to acquire a player via trade is to match salary in a deal, or to acquire them using a Traded Player Exception (TPE)

Analysis:

This is also a good change. It allows teams increased flexibility in how they can build their rosters. Anything that allows for more ways to build a roster is for the better.

Luxury Tax bands/brackets will increase and expand

What Is It:

Currently, the luxury tax bands run from $1 dollar over the tax to $5 million then to $10 million to $15 million and $20 million. Those bands were set at a time when the salary cap was roughly $58 million. The cap and tax lines have doubled, but the bands have remained the same.

Analysis:

Another good change. Adding $5 million to your team salary was essentially one signing. That was often true with $10 million. That could mean jumping one or two bands by adding just one player. The penalties for adding even that relatively small amount of salary were out of balance with the actual impact. This change was long overdue, as the bands were outdated and needed changing. As with a lot of other items, we don’t yet have the details to what the new bands will be, and how they will be phased in over a period of time.

This is also a nice balancer for those “Super Tax” teams. They’re already restricted as to how they can build their roster, hitting them with even more of a tax penalty feels overly punitive at this point.

Players who attend Draft Combine must undergo physicals that will be shared with teams

What Is It:

Currently, most top draft prospects attend the NBA Draft Combine. Very few of them work out at the combine, but are instead there to interview with teams. Some also will do physicals and medical reviews, but that’s something a player can opt out of, and many do. Now, players who attend the combine will be required to do a physical. Those results then will be shared with teams, based on that player’s draft projection.

Analysis:

This is good, but not good enough. Drafting a player in the NBA is a hope that you are entering into a relationship that will last for more than a decade. For many teams, a “bad” medical or no medical at all, will take that player off that team’s draft board. There’s simply too much risk involved. This is helping to change that

Why is this change not good enough? For one, whose projections are being used with which teams to share physical information with? Why not just share it with all teams? This is especially true considering teams can trade up.

Another concern is that this could simply cause players to skip the combine entirely. They can then control the draft process, at least as much as possible, by only meeting with, working out for and having a physical done by certain teams.

Restricted Free Agency changes

What Is It:

Qualifying offers will reportedly increase by 10%, while the time a team has to match an offer sheet will decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours.

Analysis:

This is another good set of changes. The 10% increase in qualifying offer amount could make that enticing enough that a player who doesn’t like his contract proposal from his incumbent team might opt for the one-year deal via the qualifying offer. This is opposed to simply sitting in restricted free agency, while money and jobs dry up around the league. It gives players another reasonable option to control their future contracts.

The decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours is just common sense. With today’s technology, teams can be notified of a signed offer sheet within moments of it being signed. And teams generally know if they are going to match or not, long before any offer sheet comes.

Non-max Rookie Scale Extensions allowed to have fifth season

What Is It:

Analysis:

Original Post: 4/1/23 @ 10:30am

The NBA and NBPA have reached an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement. This agreement came after both sides agreed to push back their mutual opt-out deadline several times. In the end, in the early morning hours of April 1, the NBA will continue a long run of labor peace.

The agreement will carry through the next seven seasons, from 2023-24 through 2029-30. Once again, both sides hold mutual opt-outs after the sixth season of the agreement.

As it’s still early in the process, details on the new agreement are still being filtered out. Here’s what we know so far:

In-Season Tournament

What it is: 

Adam Silver’s long-wanted in-season tournament will be added, possibly as soon as next season. All NBA teams will take part in the tournament, with pool play and early-round games in the season’s opening months doubling as regular season games. The final four teams will meet at a neutral site to crown the champion.

Analysis: 

The in-season tournament was coming, like it or not. Teams will initially prioritize it as much as they do any regular season game. Over time, it’s likely that winning the tournament will become a thing. If you put a trophy in front of competitive people, they want to win it.

Oh, and a $500,000 per player prize is pretty good too. No, the max players won’t really care all that much. But for the guys on a minimum deal, that’s a pretty nice bonus. That’ll make the stars want to win it, as much as claiming the trophy or the prize money for themselves.

Load Management Provisions

What it is: 

In order for players to eligible for major postseason awards, such as MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA, they will have to appear in at least 65 games. There are to-be-announced conditions where a player could miss more than 17 games and remain eligible for awards.

Analysis:

A 65-game threshold is roughly 79% of the schedule. That feels like a reasonable and, more importantly, attainable marker. With most teams now playing between 12 and 16 back-to-back games per season, this still allows for resting players on the nights they are most likely to miss anyway.

Does this solve everything? No. But given that players want the individual recognition of the awards (and for some, the financial benefits that come along with it!), and teams promote players for individual awards, this should get the main guys on the court at least a little more often.

A potential downside is that teams could start a player, and then simply sub that player out at the earliest opportunity. That makes a farce of the entire thing and it’s something the NBA will not want to see.

Standard Veteran Extension Increase

What is it: 

The standard Veteran Extension salary increase will rise from 120% to 140%.

Analysis: 

Let’s use Jaylen Brown as an example here, since he’s prominently in the news. Under the current CBA, Brown would be eligible for a 120% raise. That would make his total extension in the range of four years and $170.5 million.

With a 140% raise, Brown would go up to his maximum salary amount. That would cap him at about $192.2 million over that same four-year period. That’s a fairly impactful amount, even if Brown would probably prefer to see if he makes All-NBA this season or next season and qualifies for the Super Max, which could pay him in excess of $290 million over five years, or $224 million over the same four-year period.

So, for a currently near-max player like Brown, this at least gets him in the territory of what he could sign for in free agency. For a not near-max, breakout player like Domantas Sabonis or Kyle Kuzma, the increase probably still isn’t enough to get them to bite.

This feels like a good fix, but more for vets who are established as non-max players without a ton of contractual upside. They’ll probably get a little more money now.

For the true stars of the NBA, this didn’t go far enough. There’s no real reason to keep a team and player from extending for their max salary when they are eligible to do so. A better solution might have been to say you can offer the current 120% (or maybe even bumped that slightly) or you can offer the player the max. That still leaves agency for both the teams and players to make a real decision.

Second Luxury Tax Apron

What is it: 

The new CBA will see the addition of a second luxury tax apron, set at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. This new apron will make it so that the league’s most expensive teams will no longer have access to the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. That exception is currently available to any teams that are above the current tax apron (roughly $6 million above the tax line), unless they are hard capped.

Analysis: 

This feels like a bit of a band-aid, but an impactful band-aid nonetheless. It’s not a true “upper spending limit”, which several teams and players were adamantly against. Most seasons, somewhere between four and six teams will be impacted. Since spending is generally not a worry for those teams, that means somewhere between four and six players will likely have to sign a minimum deal, as opposed to the Taxpayer MLE, that will be over $7 million next season.

Those very expensive teams will still be able to add salary via minimum deals and via trades. They’ll have to get a bit more creative in how they build their rosters. It will help keep them from outspending some opponents by hundreds of millions in total salary plus tax penalties.

But some players are going to lose out here. That doesn’t seem great. This is one we’ll have to measure for a few years to get a real understanding of how this impacted teams and players.

Third Two-Way Roster Spot

What is it: 

This one is pretty simple, as there will be a third Two-Way spot added to rosters. Teams can currently sign two players to Two-Way deals for a length of up to two seasons.

Analysis: 

The NBA wants the G League to be a viable minor league system. This increases that, while still giving players flexibility and not locking them into minor league contracts.

By tying up to three players to the NBA club, the Affiliate team is strengthened and that’s good for the overall health of the G League. It’s also a great development opportunity for players and teams. Several players have emerged from Two-Way contracts to become regular NBA rotation players. This includes Jose Alvarado, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and Austin Reaves.

One downside to this is that it doesn’t appear NBA roster sizes are increasing in the offseason. Teams are allowed to bring up to 20 players to training camp. With 15 players on standard contracts and now up to three on Two-Way deals, that leaves openings for only two camp signings.

In addition, we’ve seen some teams choose to leave roster spots open more often, and for longer periods of time, because they can backfill with their Two-Way players. This could have the unintended (or perhaps intended?) consequence of some players missing out on standard contracts to fill out NBA benches.

No Change To “One-and-Done” Rules

What it is: 

US-born players will still need to be a year removed from their high school graduation in order to be draft eligible. That means players will still need to attend college, or sign with a non-NBA professional team, before entering the NBA Draft.

Analysis: 

Teams didn’t want to have to scout high school players again. That would have added a major increase to staffs and workload across the league. And it would have meant scouting many, many players who have no shot at the NBA.

Players didn’t really want the one-and-done rule changes, because for each extra player you let in the league, that’s one less spot for a veteran. The NBPA was adamant about protecting veteran players and their roster spots. Not allowing players to come in from high school helps to accomplish that.

For the players coming out of high school, the advent of NIL deals being available to them, allows them to begin earning money right away. This is in addition to professional opportunities with the G League Ignite, Overtime Elite and overseas, which have become paths to the NBA for several players in recent years.

What We Don’t Know Yet

There are a lot of items we don’t have details on yet. This includes:

• Cap smoothing: Will this happen or not? If not, we’ll see another major cap spike when the new media rights deals hit. That’s something both sides were initially eager to avoid.
• Luxury tax bands: The luxury tax bands, and the related penalties, only rise by $5 million per band now. Were those bands enlarged at all?
• Extend-and-trade rules: With the standard Veteran Extension rules being adjusted, were the very restrictive extend-and-trade rules changed at all?
• Trade requests/demands: Was anything done to prevent trade requests or demands? There was a lot of blustering about this being a problem, but was anything done to try to fix it?
• Changes to rosters: Are there more changes beyond the addition of the third Two-Way spot?
• Expansion details: Was anything changed as far as expansion goes? It seems like expansion is inevitable, perhaps in the life of this new CBA.

(This post will be updated as more details are known about the new CBA.)

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Around Christmastime of 2013, it was fair to wonder if the now Brooklyn Nets were dealing with some sort of “good, but never good enough” curse from leaving New Jersey or something. In their first season in Brooklyn, the Nets made the 2013 playoffs. They were eliminated in a competitive playoff series against the Chicago Bulls, but the things were looking bright.

In the summer of 2013, the Nets added Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the mix, alongside All-Stars Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. That 2013-14 team squeaked by the Toronto Raptors in seven games, but was bounced in relatively easy fashion by the Miami Heat in the second round. By the 2015 playoffs, the Nets were bowing out again the first round and the supposed super team was broken up and a rebuild was in order.

Most of the criticism for the failure of those “can’t miss” Nets gets lumped at the feet aging stars Garnett, Pierce and Johnson, with plenty saved for Williams. But a forgotten part of that whole letdown was Brook Lopez.

Essentially a decade later, it’s easy to forget how big a part of that team Lopez was supposed to be. After playing in just five games during the 2011-12 season, the Nets last in New Jersey, Lopez became an All-Star in 2013. Johnson and Williams were the stars, but Lopez was the Nets best player when they debuted in Brooklyn.

The next season, in Year 1 of the super team Nets, Lopez was on the shelf by Christmas and the Nets were good, but not good enough. Lopez bounced back with three more solid seasons for Brooklyn, but the now-rebuilding Nets didn’t have a need for him as he approached 30, and shuttled him off to the Los Angeles Lakers.

After one OK season in Hollywood, the Lakers let Lopez walk for nothing. He was 30, coming off a down year and had that history of serious leg and foot injuries. When Lopez signed with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018 for just the $3.4 million Bi-Annual Exception, it was seen a flyer for the Bucks.

That flyer has turned out to be one of the best signings, and subsequent re-signings, the NBA has seen over the past five years, in terms of contract, production and winning.

Now, Lopez’s second contract with the Bucks, a four-year, $52 million bargain deal, is coming to an end. Somewhat shockingly, at 35 years old, Lopez is poised to cash in again as a free agent, just like he did in 2015. Let’s take a look at Lopez’s options.

The Veteran Extension

Because he’s in the final season of his contract, Lopez will be extension-eligible all the way through June 30. He can sign a veteran extension with the Bucks that would normally look like the following:

• 2023-24: $16,688,371
• 2024-25: $18,023,441
• 2025-26: $19,358,511
• 2026-27: $20,693,581
• Total: four years, $74,763,904

That’s a 120% bump over Lopez’s current salary of $13.9 million with 8% raises. But, there’s a complicating factor at play here for Lopez in any sort of four-year contract, and that’s the Over-38 rule.

Because Lopez would be 38 years old at the start of the 2026-27 season, the Over-38 rule would be triggered in this type of extension. It doesn’t prevent the Bucks from signing Lopez to a Veteran Extension, but in this case, the extension would be functionally a three-year deal, because of the cap of a 120% raise off this season’s salary.

In effect, Lopez would be limited to the following in an extension:

• 2023-24: $16,688,371
• 2024-25: $18,023,441
• 2025-26: $19,358,511
• Total: three years, $54,070,323

That’s still a 120% bump off of this year’s salary of $13.9 million, with 8% raises on the following two seasons.

Because of the way the Over-38 rule handles deferred salary, the Bucks would have to push any salary from Year 4 onto Years 1-3. In this case, Year 1 has a cap of 120% raise or the roughly $16.7 million. So, there’s no further room to push that salary up, which eliminates a fourth year.

Now, there is an additional factor at play here, which involves the way a “zero year” (a year with no cap hit) is handled in an Over-38 contract. The Bucks could get creative and sign Lopez to a four-year extension worth almost the same amount. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $16,688,371 cap hit = $12,233,381 actual salary + $4,454,990 deferred salary
• 2024-25: $17,534,513 cap hit = $12,845,050 actual salary + $4,689,463 deferred salary
• 2025-26: $18,380,655 cap hit = $13,456,719 actual salary + $4,923,936 deferred salary
• 2026-27: $0 cap hit - $14,068,388 actual salary + $0 deferred salary
• Total: four years, $52,603,538

The benefit in this case for the Bucks is that if they were in a position where they ever needed to waive and stretch Lopez, they could do so based on having an extra year in the contract. However, the cap hits would increase each year, while Lopez would be sacrificing about $1.4 million in total money.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent

It’s hard to envision Brook Lopez leaving Milwaukee at this point. He’s been there for five years now, and five very good years at that. The Bucks can offer him up to his max of $46,900,000 in first-year salary. For a reference point, here’s the max deal Lopez can get from Milwaukee:

• • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $50,652,000
  • 2025-26: $54,404,000
  • Total: three years, $151,956,000

That’s the full 35% of the projected $134 million cap with 8% raises. As covered above, the Over-38 rule functionally limits Milwaukee to a three-year deal for Lopez, but especially so if they did anything approaching a max deal (however unlikely that may be).

Re-signing with another team as a free agent

Hard is may be to envision, let’s say Lopez leaves Milwaukee this summer. This is the max an opposing team could pay Lopez:

• • 2023-24: $46,900,000
  • 2024-25: $49,245,000
  • 2025-26: $51,590,000
  • Total: three years, $147,735,000

That’s the same first-year salary at 35% of the projected $134 million cap, but with 5% raises. Same as an extension with Milwaukee or re-signing with the Bucks, the Over-38 rule would come into play with another team, effectively eliminating a fourth year.

Summary

Brook Lopez is in a very interesting place. Sure, he’s about to be 35 years old, and the thought of handing any player at that age a ton of money is a bit scary. But, outside of a back issue last season, Lopez has been very durable for the entirety of his five-year Milwaukee tenure.

Lopez is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate this season. And he’s averaging 15.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Those are all the highest averages Lopez has had since his final year with the Nets in 2016-17. It’s not a career-year, because Lopez used to be a All-Star, but it’s a late-career rebound of sorts.

A major factor is Lopez’s perfect fit in the Bucks ecosystem. He’s become the preeminent stretch-5, non-Karl-Anthony Towns division, in the NBA. His shooting helps open the floor for Giannis Antetokounmpo. And teams can’t stash a small on Lopez, because he’s still very willing to mash them in the post.

Defensively, Lopez is the key to the Bucks drop defense. He anchors everything for Milwaukee, and you can see and feel the difference when he’s off the floor. Even when Lopez isn’t directly blocking shots, he’s altering them and forcing misses.

If Lopez was 25 years old vs 35 years old, he’d be a no-brainer max player. It wouldn’t even be a question. But he is 35 years old. And Lopez does have some injury history to at least be cognizant of.

We can start by eliminating any kind of four-year extension or four-year new deal this summer. The Over-38 complications make it simply not worth it.

We can also eliminate anything approaching the max. As good as Lopez is, no one is handing a max deal to a center of his age.

The three-year veteran extension feels about right. It would come with an $18 million AAV, and that’s pretty reasonable for Lopez. However, if you’re the Bucks, you might prefer he hits free agency and you can sign him to a slightly bigger deal in terms of first-year salary for next season, but have it descend each of the following two seasons.

That deal could look something like this:

• 2023-24: $19,600,000
• 2024-25: $18,032,000
• 2025-26: $16,464,000
• Total: three years, $54,096,000

That would be the maximum allowable 8% declines per season. It comes in roughly at the same amount as the three-year Veteran Extension, but as Lopez’s play presumably falls off, his impact on the cap sheet would decrease too.

For Milwaukee, they have another factor to consider too. This roster is getting expensive! The Bucks already have $114 million committed to the roster for six players for next season. Khris Middleton is highly likely to opt out of his deal, as he’ll be one of the best free agents available this summer.

That’s a lot of roster spots to fill, and that’s without factoring in new deals for Middleton and Lopez. This season, the Bucks are more than $28 million into the luxury tax. If they re-sign both Middleton and Lopez, and fill out the roster with reasonably projected deals for some other pending free agents, Milwaukee will be deep into the tax again next season. And that will probably carry over for at least a season or two after that.

If keeping the immediate tax bill down is a factor, the Bucks will likely be looking for Brook Lopez to do a deal in the range of what he can get via the Veteran Extension. Ideally, they might be able to even get somewhat of a hometown discount, maybe something in the range of three-years, $45 million?

If the goal is to keep the tax bill down in future years, when the repeater tax will become a factor, Milwaukee would be better off front-loading a new deal for Lopez in free agency. That would be costly this year, but helpful when the 2025 and 2026 tax bills come due. Of course, if Middleton were to leave, the Bucks would have considerably more flexibility with what they could offer Lopez and the structure they could use.

Brook Lopez has found a home in Milwaukee. He’s a perfect fit there and seemingly happy there. That presumably gives the Bucks somewhat of an advantage on keeping their big man home. But coming off a great late-career season, Milwaukee can’t expect too much of a hometown discount. Expect Lopez to land a deal that pays him between $15 and $18 million AAV, with the structure of the deal telling us a lot about both the Bucks immediate and future plans.

Austin Reaves has one of those NBA success stories you love to see. Reaves went undrafted out of Oklahoma at the 2021 NBA Draft before signing a two-way contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. Following Summer League and offseason workouts, the Lakers quickly signed Reaves to a two-year, standard contract before his first official NBA game.

It’s that two-year nature of the deal that has the Lakers in a complicated spot as far as keeping Reaves beyond this season.

When Los Angeles signed Reaves, they were only able to offer him a two-year deal at the minimum. That’s sees Reaves paid $1,563,518 for this season. The reason the deal was so short and so small is that the Lakers had no other avenues with which to give Reaves a larger or longer deal. Los Angeles had already committed most of their Taxpayer MLE to Kendrick Nunn. That left just a minimum deal for Reaves, and deals signed using the Minimum Exception can only be for two years in length.

Flipping forward to today, Reaves is an integral member of the Lakers rotation and Nunn was traded to the Washington Wizards. And in a few months, Reaves will become a restricted free agent.

And that restricted free agency comes with some complications for the Lakers, because Reaves is an Arenas free agent.

In 2003, Gilbert Arenas was a breakout star with the Golden State Warriors. As Arenas emerged, Golden State happened to be a fairly expensive team. When the Washington Wizards gave Arenas a big offer sheet as a restricted free agent, the Warriors were essentially powerless to match it. That meant, despite hitting on a second-round selection, Golden State lost Arenas for nothing.

The 2005 CBA rectified things (to a point) by creating the Gilbert Arenas Provision. This gives incumbent teams a far greater opportunity at retaining players who are now classified as Arenas restricted free agents.

In order for a player to be an Arenas free agent, they must be coming off their first or second year in the NBA and they must be given a qualifying offer and made a restricted free agent. When a player is an Arenas free agent, opposing teams can still offer whatever salary they are able to give, but the incumbent team is given an avenue to match the offer.

What happens in these offers is that the first-year salary for an Arenas free agent is limited to either the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) or what a team can match using their Early Bird exception. It’s important to note that this only applies to players who are Early Bird free agents. If they are non-Bird, then the incumbent team is limited to using the NTMLE to match.

That results in what is often referred to as a “poison pill” structure for a contract. For example, here’s what a four-year, $80 million offer sheet to an Arenas free agent would look like this offseason in terms of salary structure:

• 2023-24: $11,368,000
• 2024-25: $11,936,400
• 2025-26: $27,724,010
• 2026-27: $28,971,590
• Total: four years, $80,000,000

If you think this deal looks different from most you are used to, you would be correct. The first two seasons are pretty standard. It’s the NTMLE amount, followed by a 5% raise. After that, it gets a little complicated. That’s where the “poison pill” descriptor comes into play, because of the huge jump in salary from Year 2 to Year 3.

How you determine the salaries for the last two season is you subtract the sum of Years 1 and 2 from the total salary. Then, you split the remainder over the final two seasons, with a 4.5% bump in salary from Year 3 to Year 4.

It’s the above process that makes an Arenas offer sheet a complicated one. The player still gets paid in full, but their team is allowed to match the offer by using the NTMLE (or Early Bird rights, if applicable) to do so. But there’s one more set of complications that matter here.

For the team signing the Arenas player to an offer sheet, the cap hits for them would be the average of the total salary over four years. Sticking with our four-year, $80 million example, the signing team would have cap hits of $20 million per season on their cap sheet.

The matching team is not only given the chance to match, but they are also given the ability to determine how they want the contract to hit their cap sheet, if they are under the cap when they match. They can use the actual salary structure as laid out above as the cap hit. Or the team can choose to use the average salary as the cap hit. If the team is over the cap and matches, they must use the structure where they match with the Early Bird exception or the NTMLE.

One final thing to note: If a team chooses to match, whatever version of cap hits they choose become that player’s cap hit for the life of the deal. This includes if they are traded to another team.

With all that in mind, let’s get back to Austin Reaves and his next contract.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Austin Reaves is not extension-eligible. Reaves two-year contract is too short to eligible to be extended. Only a contract between three and six seasons in length, or a previously extended contract, can be extended.

Re-signing with the Lakers using the Early Bird Exception

The Lakers are pointing towards being an over-the-cap team this coming offseason. Instead of having $30 million or so in cap space, the pre-deadline trades LA made puts them in position to re-sign recently acquired players like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves.

This is where it’s fortunate that the Lakers have Early Bird rights for Reaves. While not as flexible as full Bird rights, Early Bird rights give LA a good chance to re-sign Reaves to a reasonable salary.

This is what the maximum contract the Lakers can give Reaves projects at, should they use his Early Bird Rights:

• 2023-24: $11,331,600
• 2024-25: $12,238,000
• 2025-26: $13,144,656
• 2026-27: $14,051,184
• Total: four years, $50,765,568

Early Bird rights allows for a team to give the player a first-year salary of 105% of the average salary from the prior season. From there, the player can receive up to 8% raises. A contract using Early Bird rights must be for a minimum of two years, and can be for up to four years.

Signing with another team as a restricted free agent

This is where the Arenas Provision comes into play. We used $80 million as our example to explain the Arenas Provision, but that’s probably a little rich for Austin Reaves. But could an average salary of $15 million, for a total of $60 million, be in play? We’ve seen shooters get paid handsomely in the past. Shooters who can do a little more? Those guys always get paid.

If Reaves got a $60 million offer sheet over four years, here’s how that could look given the Arenas Provision:

• 2023-24: $11,368,000
• 2024-25: $11,936,400
• 2025-26: $17,944,059
• 2026-27: $18,751,542
• Total: four years, $60,000,000

Remember: This is the actual salary structure. The Lakers could choose to match this structure using the NTMLE and assume the above as cap hits each season.

For the team signing Reaves to an offer sheet, they would assume the average-salary structure above as the cap hits for each season. That would look like this:

• 2023-24: $15,000,000
• 2024-25: $15,000,000
• 2025-26: $15,000,000
• 2026-27: $15,000,000
• Total: four years, $60,000,000

(Note: The Lakers could also use Early Bird rights to match the salary structure for Reaves. That structure would look a lot like the one laid out under the Early Bird section, but with a similar bump from Year 2 to Year 3 in an Arenas offer sheet match.)

Summary

The Lakers are in a spot where a team can make them swallow hard to keep Austin Reaves. Matching first-year salary at roughly $11.3 million isn’t really an issue. That’s fair value for Reaves. The second-year salary on a 5% bump really isn’t a difficult decision either.

It’s that Year 3 bump, followed by Year 4, where it could get unwieldy.

If you match, and assume the actual structure as the Lakers, you keep your tax bill down for this season and next. With big money committed to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and several key free agents to sign, Los Angeles is very likely to be a tax team for at least the next two seasons.

Then, in Years 3 and 4, you’ve got Reaves on a salary potentially approaching as much as $18 to $19 million. And those could be the first years of a post-James and Davis Lakers team. That could be money the Lakers might not really want on the books, especially if they are resetting their roster.

Before we get there, it’s important to ask, is Austin Reaves even worth $15 million AAV?

He’ll be 25 before next season, so he’s not exactly a young prospect. But Reaves is pretty good. And it’s not just the Lakers limelight pumping him up either.

This season, Reaves has averaged 11.3 points on 51/39/86 shooting splits. And he’s not just a three-point shooter who happens to get to the free throw line once and a while, either. Reaves is averaging 3.3 free throw attempts per game. That’s pretty good for a reserve guard.

Reaves is also a solid defender, decent rebounder for his position and a good passer. At an AAV of $15 million, he’d rank as the 25th highest-paid shooting guard in the NBA next season. That would put him right between Lu Dort and former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’d also be just behind Luke Kennard, Kevin Huerter, teammate Malik Beasley (if his option is picked up), and just ahead of Gary Harris, former teammate Talen Horton-Tucker (a one-time Arenas guy himself) and Terance Mann.

That $15 million AAV neighborhood feels about right for Reaves. With even a slightly bigger role, he’s probably producing at a level similar to most of his contemporaries in that salary range.

If you add it all up, the Los Angeles Lakers can keep Austin Reaves. Nothing should really prevent that from happening. After very questionably losing Alex Caruso two summers ago, and then trading Talen Horton-Tucker ahead of this season, it would be good to see the Lakers lock in and keep a guard they developed.

If another team wants to play a staring contest with Los Angeles, they better be prepared to come with a big enough offer to make the Lakers blink. We’re talking something probably approaching the $75-$80 million range.

From the Lakers side, they should try to get things locked up before an offer sheet even comes. That would allow Los Angeles to keep Reaves under their own terms without having to deal with matching an offer sheet. After a couple of years of somewhat of a drain of in-house, younger talent, it’s important that the Lakers do what they can to keep Reaves.

It would be disingenuous and wrong to start any article, conversation or discussion about Ja Morant with anything but hoping that he gets the help he needs. Morant has reportedly entered a counseling facility to seek help and treatment after a series of questionable off-court decisions. As one of the NBA’s brightest young stars, everyone should be rooting for Morant to get things to a good place in his life.

It’s that place as one of the NBA’s brightest young stars that earned Morant a huge contract extension that will kick in with the start of next season. Because the NBA calendar doesn’t pause, and cap sheets don’t really adjust, we’re going to examine Morant’s extension, despite far more important factors at play. The hope is to answer some of the many questions circulating about Morant’s deal and where things may go from here.

Last summer, Morant inked a five-year, maximum extension with the Memphis Grizzlies. That contract currently projects to look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s 25% of the projected salary cap of $134 million for next season. Morant also gets the maximum 8% raises on the deal. There is also a 15% trade bonus in the contract. Notably, the extension includes no options. It’s a fully-guaranteed, five-year deal.

Now, here’s the important part: Morant’s extension includes Designated Rookie language. That means, Morant could be eligible to jump a salary tier in his deal. In order to get there, Morant would need to accomplish one of the following things:

• Win 2023 NBA MVP
• Win 2023 Defensive Player of the Year
• Be named to a 2023 All-NBA team

Obviously, as great as Morant is, he’s not winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. Perhaps oddly enough, the latter is far more of a stretch than the former.

But an All-NBA nod is on the table. Or, it was, at least.

If Morant is named to All-NBA, his contract will look like this instead:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

Making All-NBA would see Morant jump to the 30% of the cap tier. He’d still get the maximum 8% raises on the deal too. The 15% trade bonus stays, no matter what. And, importantly, there will still be no options in the deal.

As you can see, there is nearly a $39 million difference for Morant in the two deals. That’s a significant amount of money, especially when you consider some of Morant’s endorsement deals now seem to be in flux.

Morant made All-NBA second team a season ago. Had he kept up his production this season, and had the Grizzlies kept winning at a solid rate, Morant was probably a lock to make All-NBA again this season.

Now that’s in question.

There’s some thought out there that Morant could miss the remainder of the regular season. If so, he’ll have appeared in only 53 games this year. On a crowded guard line for All-NBA spots that is filled with tough decisions, voters will penalize Morant for appearing in just over half-of-a-season.

The competition for All-NBA guard spots is deep. You have players like Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards in the mix. That’s 10 players for six spots, and that’s without mixing in any of the more long-shot cases. And outside of maybe Doncic and Edwards (and that’s a tenuous maybe), none are very likely to be bumped to the forward line.

Had he not missed this stretch of time, with more absences to come, Morant would have had a strong case as one of the top-six guards in the NBA for this season. As noted previously, it was probably a lock Morant would have made All-NBA. That’s no longer the case.

All of our decisions have consequences. It’s fortunate that Morant’s recent questionable decisions haven’t gotten to a point of truly dire consequences. We have far too many examples we can point to of promising young men being cut down far too early in their lives due to bad decisions.

For Ja Morant, he might be facing a $39 million consequence for his poor decision-making. While that’s obviously not somewhere anyone wants to be, it could be far worse. Morant getting the help he needs to make sure that it doesn’t go beyond a contract consequence is what really matters here. All of the rest will take care of itself, over what we all should hope will be a long and productive NBA career for one of the NBA’s brightest young stars.

A lot has changed since we wrote about James Harden and his contract situation last year. Harden opted out of his deal after being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers, which was expected. What wasn’t expected was he then took less money in a new deal, which allowed Philadelphia to bring in both P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. In exchange for that goodwill, Harden only signed a two-year deal with a player option for next season.

That all made sense. Harden made a short-term sacrifice, knowing a long-term deal would be waiting for him this summer. He’d still get a max contract, the Sixers added some key rotation players and Philadelphia would move forward with a veteran core for at least the foreseeable future.

Or so we thought.

Around Christmastime, buzz began to build that Harden was interested in returning to the Houston Rockets in free agency. Over the last few months, that buzz is now as prevalent as the droning hum of dragonflies on a summer afternoon.

It might seem ludicrous that a 14-year veteran might leave a title contender for one of the worst teams in the league. But this is the NBA. Ludicrous things happen all the time in this league.

Reports are that Harden loves Houston. And it’s not an unrequited love either. Houston loves Harden right back. Sometimes comfort is worth more to a player than contention or money.

And, due to a quirky rule in the CBA, the money might not even be all that different for Harden if he leaves the 76ers for the Rockets this summer. Let’s dive in.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Harden is not extension-eligible. Because he opted out of his old deal and signed a new contract this summer, Harden is not able to extend with the 76ers. That’s one potential retention tool that has been taken off the table.

Re-signing with the 76ers as a free agent

Maybe the noise about James Harden and Houston is just that: noise. Maybe he has no intentions of leaving Philadelphia, where Beard aficionado Daryl Morey runs the show and Harden has teamed with Joel Embiid to form one of the league’s best duos.

The max Harden can effectively get from the Sixers projects as follows:

• 2023-24: $46,900,000
• 2024-25: $50,652,000
• 2025-26: $54,404,000
• 2026-27: $58,156,000
• Total: four years, $210,112,000

That’s the 35% of the cap maximum Harden is eligible for as a player with 14 years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $46.9 million.

You might be wondering why Harden is effectively capped at a four-year deal, when a player re-signing with Bird rights can sign for five years. Here’s where that CBA quirk of the “Over-38” rule comes into play.

Harden will turn 34 this summer. That means a five-year deal would carry him from his age-34 through age-38 seasons. That makes that final season subject to the Over-38 rule.

Now, it’s important to note that nothing prevents Philadelphia and Harden from signing a five-year deal. It would just have to be for less than the max (by a pretty large margin, because of the way cap hits work on a deal impacted by the Over-38 rule).

What happens with the Over-38 rule is that the assumption is that a player will be retired by the time they hit 38 years old (Yes, several players have tested these assumptions in recent years. Enough so that this rule has been tweaked from Over-35 to Over-36 and now to Over-38 in recent CBA negotiations). In Harden’s case, that would be on a presumptive fifth season. In this case, the salary for that fifth season would be treated as deferred compensation. The salary from that fifth season would be divided up (as percentage of the total salary) and spread across the first four seasons of the contract.

In Harden’s case, he’s presumably still a max salary player. Because no player is allowed to earn more than their individual maximum amount in first-year salary, there is nowhere to put that deferred compensation. Thus, the contract would be deemed invalid. Harden would have to take less in base salary each season, to allow for the money from the fifth season to be spread across the first four season. In that case, it would bring us right back to the $210 million amount he can get in a straight four-year, max deal.

There are ways to work around the Over-38 rule and to still sign a five-year deal, but all would involve Harden taking far less than the maximum he’s eligible for. That doesn’t seem realistic, even despite last summer’s Sixers-friendly maneuvering.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

We’ll leave this open to James Harden signing with any other team, even if all signs point to that “other” team only being the Rockets, should Harden leave the 76ers. If he leaves Philadelphia, here’s what Harden is eligible to sign for elsewhere:

• 2023-24: $46,900,000
• 2024-25: $49,245,000
• 2025-26: $51,590,000
• 2026-27: $53,935,000
• Total: four years, $201,670,000

That’s the same 35% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years. And that removes the Over-38 rule from the equation entirely, as Harden would be in his age-37 season in the final year of this deal.

We can debate if Houston should be investing most of their cap space in a Harden reunion at another point, should it come to pass. The main takeaway? The Rockets currently project to have $56.2 million in cap space this summer. That’s enough for Harden and some leftover cap room. Mostly: the path for Houston to bring Harden home is not only open, it’s completely free and clear cap-wise.

Summary

James Harden opted out of $47.4 million for this season with Philadelphia 76ers and re-signed for $33 million. We can take the player option out of the mix for next season, because that was never realistically getting picked up barring Harden getting seriously injured or his game falling apart. Neither of those have happened, so we can confidently say he sacrificed $14.4 million for this season.

Because we’re working under the assumption that Harden is still a max player, that was a one-year sacrifice, should he stay in Philadelphia. If he leaves the Sixers, Harden would be giving up a further $8.5 million.

That’s a total of about $23 million Harden would have given up, should he leave for Houston or elsewhere. For a player who has already banked in excess of $300 million, and probably has over $200 million still to come, it’s not exactly inconceivable that Harden would leave the 76ers for another team. Fully maximizing his earnings don’t seem to be a real motivation.

The Over-38 rule is obviously a complicating factor here. It removes what would have been Philadelphia’s biggest advantage: a fifth year at $61.9 million. With that off the table, an $8.5 million salary deficit spread over four years isn’t going to make a difference.

One other thing to note: If Harden is willing to take less than max money, that probably increases Houston’s chances of landing him. That would allow the Rockets to have even more cap space to work with to add talent around Harden in a homecoming. In Philadelphia, taking less really just delays a tax bill or lessens it. That’s good, but it’s not quite the same as the flexibility gained while building something new in Houston.

This seems like it will come down to Harden’s desire to remain on a readymade contender in Philadelphia. The Sixers can offer him a four-year deal which would tie him to the franchise for the same amount of time as Joel Embiid. That’s a good a start toward being a title contender for at least the next few years.

Yet, there’s a ton of smoke coming from Houston. And where there is that much smoke, there’s often fire. It’s been so well reported that Harden still considered Houston to be home, that there’s something there. If the Rockets give him most of their cap space, and then package some of their kids together in smart trades, they could be a playoff team next season.

James Harden isn’t MVP of the NBA James Harden anymore. Those days are over, but he should have been an All-Star this season. Harden is still good enough to be a featured attraction on a playoff team. At the end of the day, maybe just being a playoff team and the love showered upon him from Houston is enough for Harden to finish out his career in comfort.

The Memphis Grizzlies have become the NBA’s preeminent “draft and develop” team. Of their current roster, only Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard didn’t begin their NBA careers as Grizzlies. Memphis believes in keeping their draft picks, selecting players with upside and high work ethic, and then coaching them up to get the most of their abilities.

Another thing the Grizzlies believe in? Locking up those players to long-term contracts.

In recent years, Memphis has reached extension agreements with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams. That group of four, and presumably Desmond Bane (who will be extension-eligible to this summer), will be Grizzlies through at least 2024-25.

But there’s another player who Memphis has already extended once that could be up for another new deal before he hits free agency this summer. Let’s talk about the interesting case of Dillon Brooks.

The Veteran Extension

Brooks is in the final year of the three-year, $35 million extension he signed with Memphis in 2020. Brooks is now eligible to extend again through June 30. Here’s what that extension could look like:

• 2023-24: $13,680,000
• 2024-25: $14,774,400
• 2025-26: $15,868,800
• 2026-27: $16,963,200
• Total: four years, $61,286,400

That’s the max Brooks can get in a veteran extension. It’s a 120% bump off his current salary of $11,400,000 with 8% raises in the following years.

That’s an average of about $15.3 million per season for Brooks. That $13.7 million for next season would see Brooks ranked as the 19th highest paid small forward in the NBA, just behind Doug McDermott and ahead of Nicolas Batum. If you extrapolate that out to all wings, Brooks would be the 45th highest paid wing next season at $13.7 million.

Re-signing with the Grizzlies as a free agent

Maybe Brooks looks at the landscape this summer and sees that there are somewhere between seven and 10 team projected to have considerable cap space. Then he looks at the free agent small forwards and sees that he ranks somewhere between the third- and fifth-best free agent small forward. That could push Brooks to wait to sign a new deal until free agency.

The max Brooks could get from the Grizzlies projects to look like the follow:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap maximum Brooks is eligible for as a player with six years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $33.5 million.

Yes, that’s more than Brooks is going to get. He’s a good player, but a first-year salary of $33.5 million would make him the sixth highest paid small forward, behind Brandon Ingram and ahead of Michael Porter Jr. Of all wing players, he would rank 13th, again nestled between Ingram and Porter. Given his shooting struggles the last two seasons, that’s a bit rich for the Grizzlies.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

It probably wouldn’t make sense for Brooks to leave Memphis, as he’s comfortable there, plays a big role and the team is good. But if Brooks got wandering eyes, here’s the max another team could give him this summer:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $35,175,000
• 2025-26: $36,850,000
• 2026-27: $38,525,000
• Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same 30% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years, as Brooks would be changing teams.

This would be over double what Brooks could get by locking in for an extension with Memphis. But this is still more than Brooks is gong to get as a free agent. As much as teams value 3&D wings (or maybe it should be “3”&D in Brooks’ case), that’s not where Brooks will fall salary-wise as a free agent.

Summary

Dillon Brooks is a good player, despite the shooting challenges of the past two seasons. However, Brooks recently turned 27, so there’s probably not much, if any, improvement still to come in his game. Maybe the shooting turns back around, but everything else what it is at this point. If the shooting doesn’t bounce back, that’s a major limiting factor for Brooks.

The reality is that Brooks’ value is probably higher to the Grizzlies than it would be to another team. Could a cap space team like Orlando, Detroit or Houston add him as a mid-career veteran that would give them an infusion of wing defense? Sure. But those teams have another needs they’ll probably focus on first. In other words: Brooks probably won’t be a priority free agent for any team out of the gates this summer.

There’s also the fact that Brooks is, let’s say, an interesting personality. He’s a top-tier irritant for opponents, and that’s putting it kindly. Brooks is also a high-end irrational confidence guy. It’s not uncommon to see Brooks on the floor with several All-Stars and feel like his thought process is “I got this!”.

The Grizzlies have figured out how to make that work to their advantage. They like that he gets under the skin of opposing wing scorers. And while he might get a little wild on offense, Memphis needs that, especially when Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are out of the game. It’s an important layer of unpredictability in an offense that relies on Morant’s skywalking excellence a bit more than is comfortable at times.

Locking in on a veteran extension that would see Brooks make just north of $15 million as an average salary seems like a fair deal for both him and the Grizzlies. The potential to make slightly more could be there this summer, but that would involve leveraging an outside offer against Memphis.

If the veteran extension isn’t quite enough, a compromise for Memphis and Brooks this summer could be something that looks like this:

• 2023-24: $18,000,000
• 2024-25: $16,560,000
• 2025-26: $15,120,000
• 2026-27: $13,680,000
• Total: four years, $63,360,000

That’s a bit more total money as the Veteran Extension option for Brooks, and it gives him more money up front. Then, as he approaches his early 30s, the salary drops into what will likely be the Non-Taxpayer MLE range.

In this type of setup, Brooks wins immediately with a salary that would rank in the top-20 of small forwards and top-35 of all wings. The Grizzlies will be an over-the-cap team this offseason, but have a ton of space under the luxury tax for 2023-24. This is a good way to use some of that flexibility by giving Brooks an up-front bump for more team-friendly salaries in the later years.

No matter what, expect Memphis and Brooks to reach an agreement on a new deal. The Grizzlies aren’t in the habit of letting their players walk and Brooks should know his value is highest in Memphis. That’s a combination that rarely sees non-max players leave town.

Since the last time we did this at the opening of trade season in mid-December, quite a bit has changed. The Indiana Pacers used a chunk of next year’s cap space to renegotiate-and-extend Myles Turner’s contract. The Los Angeles Lakers made several trades to prop up this season’s roster, while also adding players they could keep long-term. The San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons both took on money that carries into next season and, just as importantly, didn’t trade some players who now project to stick around.

There are more moves to come, as teams are in the midst of buyout season for about two more weeks. However, buyout season rarely changes much as far as next summer’s spending outlook goes.

With all that in mind, it’s time to look at some updated 2023 cap space and exception projections.

(Note: 538’s 2022-23 NBA standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

1. Houston Rockets - $56.2 million
2. Utah Jazz - $53.8 million
3. San Antonio Spurs - $46.0 million
4. Oklahoma City Thunder - $30.4 million
5. Detroit Pistons - $27.9 million
6. Indiana Pacers - $26.6 million
7. Sacramento Kings - $21.5 million
8. Orlando Magic - $21.1 million

Only eight teams project to have cap space, and it could end up being fewer than that. Some of these teams are in the running for Victor Wembanyama. If they land him, then pressure to spend to win right could increase. Or the pressure could be off for a year of watching the generational prospect develop.

The Rockets projection shouldn’t change much. Houston has seven players on rookie scale contracts and two others playing out the deals they signed as second-round picks. Only Kevin Porter (his rookie scale extension kicks in next year) and Jae’Sean Tate are signed to long-term non-first contracts. Look for Houston to decline KJ Martin’s team option, in order to make him a restricted free agent. But that move won’t push the Rockets out of the top spot in available cap space.

Utah moved out some of their pending decisions at the trade deadline. They don’t have to decide on keeping Mike Conley or Jarred Vanderbilt anymore, and that increases their cap space projection by quite a bit. Even if bit players like Rudy Gay, Talen Horton-Tucker and Damian Jones opt in, the Jazz still have the second-most projected cap space in the league. Without a ton of roster spots to fill, Utah could take a major swing this summer. Keep an eye on a potential Jordan Clarkson extension to eat into a bit of their projected space.

The Spurs added some money into next year by taking on Devonte’ Graham and Khem Birch’s deals at the deadline. That’s fine, as San Antonio seems to be at least on more year out from trying to move things forward in a significant way.

The Thunder are in a really fun spot. They’ve got about $30 million to spend, and no really tough decisions to make on pending free agents. That could make Oklahoma City a threat to spend big on one major addition to a young roster that is ready to start winning at a higher rate.

Detroit kept Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks at the deadline. That changed their projection a bit for the summer. Instead of being up around the Rockets/Jazz territory, the Pistons should be middle to the pack. But with some good, young players and keeping the couple of vets, Detroit might not need to spend on a lot of players. One big addition could be in play for a roster that’s almost there.

The Pacers chose to eat into their cap space by extending Myles Turner. By using a chunk of this season’s leftover space, Indiana was able to give Turner an immediate bump in salary, while also keeping his number down for the future. This is another roster this is mostly full. Indiana could use one more forward with size. They’ve got the spending power to get that done this summer.

Sacramento is a swing team. They could easily create about $21 million in spending power. Or the Kings could stay over the cap and choose to retain a few of their own free agents. Sacramento could also make this whole thing moot by agreeing to an extension with Harrison Barnes before July. A lot might depend on how this playoff push turns out for the Kings.

Orlando didn’t trade Gary Harris at the deadline, and they won’t just waive him. That’s now the biggest difference between the Magic having in the mid-$30 million range in cap space and being in the low-$20 million range. In order to get in the mix for a $25-$30 million point guard, as has been rumored, there will have to be another move or two coming from Orlando. And that move isn’t an obvious one.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Charlotte Hornets
2. Chicago Bulls
3. Memphis Grizzlies
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
5. New York Knicks
6. Portland Trail Blazers

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these six teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

The Grizzlies remain easiest team to slot in here. They’ve got a mostly full roster after extending their own players over the years. The only real free agent of note is Dillon Brooks, and there’s a decent chance he could be the next player to extend. But even with Brooks at a fair number for both sides and Memphis should have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. The real question for the Grizzlies is about having enough roster spots to re-sign Brooks, add a free agent and bring in another drafted player.

The Hornets are a real swing team. A lot hinges on what happens with P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges. Washington wasn’t traded, so that assumes Charlotte wants to keep him. The “Hornets are ready to re-sign Miles Bridges” trial balloon was a massive miss a couple of months ago. But that situation still needs resolved. If those guys move on, the Hornets will be a cap space team.

Chicago mostly depends on how far they go to re-sign Nikola Vucevic. They didn’t trade the veteran center at the deadline, which means he’s probably getting a contract offer. Keep an eye on a potential extension for Vucevic, ideally a somewhat team-friendly one. That could clear things up for Chicago heading into what’s shaping up to be a very important summer.

Minnesota is in a good spot. They’ve got one more year before the team gets really, really expensive with Karl-Anthony Town’s supermax extension kicking in, and likely a Designated Rookie scale max extension coming for Anthony Edwards. If Naz Reid doesn’t break the bank, the Wolves should have enough room to use the full MLE this summer for the last time in a few years.

New York’s roster is mostly defined. That’s a good spot to be in, while also having access to the full MLE. Look for the Knicks to make a targeted signing to fill out their rotation.

Portland’s flexibility mostly revolves around what happens with Jerami Grant. He could extend, or he could command a big deal as a free agent. Add in some uncertainty with Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle as restricted free agents, and the Trail Blazers are in a bit of a weird place. They could just as easily slip into having only the Taxpayer MLE, pending new contracts for Grant, Reddish and Thybulle.

Non-Taxpayer or Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Los Angeles Lakers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Washington Wizards

No team did more to change their future at the trade deadline than Brooklyn. The Nets now have a roster full of good-but-not-great players. Cam Johnson is the only major free agent for Brooklyn too. But the roster feels unfinished. With so many good players at the same positions, there’s going to be more movement coming here. If enough salary goes out, that could put the Nets in range to use the full MLE.

The Cavs outlook depends solely on what happens with new deals for Caris LeVert and Kevin Love. If those players re-sign for even semi-team-friendly terms, Cleveland will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE. If those deals push the team salary up, then the Cavaliers will have the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is now beholden to the Kyrie Irving experience. Irving says he doesn’t want to talk about his contract until the summer, but it’s the key question for the Mavs. If he re-signs, Dallas is likely to be a tax team. If Irving walks, the Mavericks could be a potential cap space team.

The Lakers made a bunch of moves ahead of the trade deadline and all seem to have a long-term bend to them. Los Angeles could still create $30 million in cap space, but for now they’ll probably focus on re-signing guys like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, while also picking up Malik Beasley’s team option. That means it’s just the Taxpayer MLE to work with again, but this time it’s with a far-more fleshed out roster.

Despite being in a million trade rumors, Toronto only brought back Jakob Poeltl and called it a deadline. Trading for Poeltl signaled the Raptors intend to re-sign him, but they still have major decisions to make with Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. Re-signing either probably makes Toronto a tax team, or really close. Letting them go would give the Raps access to the full MLE.

Much like Toronto, Washington chose to hang onto their pending free agents in Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis. This one is pretty simple: Re-signing Kuzma and Porzingis will put Washington close to the tax. Losing either will give the Wizards the full MLE. Losing both means Washington is a very unexpected cap space team.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks
2. Boston Celtics
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Golden State Warriors
5. LA Clippers
6. Miami Heat
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. New Orleans Pelicans
9. Philadelphia 76ers
10. Phoenix Suns

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

The Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Heat and Suns are all going to be tax teams, barring something really unexpected. That leaves four teams from this group with some unanswered questions.

Atlanta didn’t make any major moves. That’s got them staring at being a tax team next season. If they move John Collins (don’t laugh!) the Hawks could create enough flexibility to have the Non-Taxpayer MLE. But they also have to figure out what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic, who will be looking to cash in on one more big contract.

The Bucks will probably be deep in the tax again next season. The only way they aren’t is if Khris Middleton leaves town. That would have Milwaukee in a completely different position of having to rebuild a bit of their top-end depth, instead of figuring out how to improve on the edges of the rotation.

The Pelicans have a mostly full roster. That’s good news, as they won’t have much spending power this summer. With Zion Williamson’s max extension kicking in, New Orleans is sitting on three $30 million-plus players. Despite that, keep an eye on the Pelicans adding even more salary, as they’d be smart to decline their team option for Naji Marshall. That would get Marshall paid a year early, but by making him a restricted free agent this summer, it would remove a potentially dangerous situation with the important forward hitting unrestricted free agency in 2024.

The 76ers being a taxpayer or not is tied to James Harden’s free agency. If Harden signs for the max, Philadelphia will be deep into the tax. If Harden takes less again, the Sixers will have some flexibility. If Harden were to walk (and that buzz keeps getting a little louder), the 76ers will find themselves retooling the roster around Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and the final year of Tobias Harris’ contract.

On the heels of the NBA trade deadline, there’s always a rush to declare who won or lost trades. However, as the old saying goes: “Sometimes the best trades are ones you don’t make.”

That means, it’s not always really clear if a team won or lost at the trade deadline. And we often no idea the full impact in the days and week after either. Some deals will take years to have to their stories written.

With all that said, we can start the process of declaring winners and losers. We just have to do it with a hearty helping of understanding that this could all look really silly as things play out over time.

Atlanta Hawks

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired Saddiq Bey, Bruno Fernando, Garrison Mathews. Traded Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, seven second-round picks.

Those familiar with this author’s work know he’s a big fan of John Collins. Not trading Collins is almost enough to tab the Hawks as winner. Alas, taking that Collins bias out of the mix, the Hawks are just sort of…well…the Hawks still. Saddiq Bey is a good player, but did Atlanta need a backup forward that badly? Was the market for Collins so poor that they couldn’t have moved on? And the Hawks took on money for next year. As always, the Hawks remain confusing and stuck in the middle.

Boston Celtics

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Mike Muscala. Traded Justin Jackson, two second-round picks.

Boston isn’t a huge winner or anything. Mike Muscala will be a fourth or fifth big for them. But they filled a position of need by trading a non-rotation player. Muscala should be a good fit and the Celtics can now rest Al Horford and Rob Williams as necessary for the rest of the regular season. If Boston adds a decent wing on the buyout market, they’ll have done good in-season work.

Brooklyn Nets

Status: Losers today, Winners tomorrow

The moves: Acquired Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, five first-round picks, one first-round pick swap, three second-round picks. Traded Kevin Durant, Kessler Edwards, Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris, T.J. Warren.

The Nets are worse today. That’s life when you trade Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. But Brooklyn is now pretty well set up for years to come. Mikal Bridges is awesome. We’ll see if he can expand his offense with all the room to grow that he never fully had in Phoenix. Cam Johnson is really good too. And those Suns picks are great. The early ones might be late first-rounders, but the later ones will come long after the Suns might have set. Getting Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith and another potentially post-Doncic first in a no-leverage situation is great work. Sean Marks might have the Nets set up in a reverse-Boston style from their disastrous trade with the Celtics from so many years ago.

Charlotte Hornets 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Reggie Jackson, Svi Mykhailiuk, three second-round picks. Traded Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, one second-round pick.

Charlotte is about in the same place. They opened up more minutes for Mark Williams, which is a big win. He’s pretty good. But they lost Jalen McDaniels. He’s also pretty good. But Charlotte was in a tricky contract spot with P.J. Washington a restricted free agent this summer, and Miles Bridges restricted free agency still dangling out there. Coming away +2 in terms of second-round picks is good, especially getting back their own second-rounder this year, which should be a very good one.

Chicago Bulls 

Status: Losers

The moves: None.

The Bulls didn’t do anything. Despite the idea we espoused in the open about “sometimes the best trade is one you don’t make, that doesn’t apply to Chicago. Are they really re-signing Nikola Vucevic to a new, long-term deal this summer? He’s played fine, but that could be a really messy contract very quickly. Somehow, Chicago still has uncertainty at point guard with Lonzo Ball out, despite having a bunch of in-house options. This roster needed to be shaken up and the Bulls didn’t do it.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Status: Losers (kind of)

The moves: None.

Like the Bulls, the Cavs sat out trade season. But unlike Chicago, Cleveland didn’t have to do anything. They explored upgrading on the wing by dangling Caris LeVert and Kevin Love. Nothing came of it, and that’s ok. The Cavaliers did their big work over the summer and it’s paid off with a pretty stable roster.

Dallas Mavericks

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris. Traded Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Dallas comes out of this deadline looking pretty good. Kyrie Irving will behave himself for at least the rest of this season. That’ll be enough to give the Mavs a souped-up version of what they had with Jalen Brunson. He’ll be fine playing with Luka Doncic. The defense in Dallas is a question mark, but they’re going to be tough to stop on offense. It’s beyond this year where things get a little worrisome, but that’s tomorrow’s problem.

Denver Nuggets 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Thomas Bryant. Traded Bones Hyland, Davon Reed, one second-round pick.

Thomas Bryant is a nice enough addition for the Nuggets, but weren’t Zeke Nnaji and Jeff Green fine in the minimal minutes behind Nikola Jokic? And they created a hole at backup point guard, but the Bones Hyland situation was obviously too far gone to be salvaged. If Denver adds a quality point guard on the buyout market, and plenty look to be available, they’ll be fine.

Detroit Pistons 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired James Wiseman. Traded Saddiq Bey, Kevin Knox.

Detroit is in a weird place. They’ve again got too many centers (even after Nerlens Noel is presumably bought out) and they traded a forward everyone seems to like. But if James Wiseman can find his footing and blossom in a low-pressure environment, Detroit will be a big winner. The talent is there with Wiseman and this will be his best shot to put it all together.

Golden State Warriors 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Gary Payton II, two second-round picks. Traded James Wiseman, two second-round picks.

The Warriors got back a key cog from last year’s championship team. And they got him for a non-rotation player. That’s a win. Sure, it’s oversimplifying, but it was time for Golden State to but bait with James Wiseman. Getting someone they have familiarity with and that they know they can throw into big playoff games is a big upgrade.

Houston Rockets 

Status: Winners (kind of)

The moves: Acquired Danny Green, Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, John Wall, one first-round pick swap, two second-round picks. Traded Bruno Fernando, Eric Gordon, Garrison Mathews.

Houston traded Eric Gordon and facilitated a tax-savings move for Atlanta and they landed some draft capital for it. But was that enough? After years of shopping Gordon, the Rockets sort of just settled. They did clear a little more flexibility moving forward, which is always a plus. But there just isn’t a whole lot here. It is kind of funny that after doing that eight-player deal with the Thunder over the summer and waiving everyone, Houston could end up waiving all four guys they acquired at the deadline too.

Indiana Pacers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired George Hill, Serge Ibaka, Jordan Nwora, three second-round picks. Traded draft rights to Juan Vaulet.

The Pacers got three second-round picks for renting their cap space to facilitate Jae Crowder landing in Milwaukee. That’s a win. And keep an eye on Jordan Nwora. He’s flashed in the past. The Pacers don’t really have a lot of forwards with his size. Nwora could end up popping on his team-friendly deal.

LA Clippers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, three second-round picks. Traded Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, John Wall, one first-round pick swap, three second-round picks, one second-round pick swap

The Clippers upgraded their bench in a major way. Mason Plumlee gives them the backup center they’ve been looking for all season. Bones Hyland gives them a young player at the point guard spot. And Eric Gordon should be an upgrade on Luke Kennard, especially in terms of being healthy. If they can make themselves care enough to push homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, the Clippers could make a Finals run.

Los Angeles Lakers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Mo Bamba, Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, two second-round picks. Traded Patrick Beverley, Thomas Bryant, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Russell Westbrook, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Are the Lakers Finals contenders? No. Are they a lot better than they were before trade season? Absolutely. Each move they made at the deadline brought in a better player, or at least better fit. And that’s without factoring in the Rui Hachimura upgrade from a couple of weeks ago. Los Angeles now has a viable rotation that is deep with NBA players, and they have some size and versatility. That’s not enough to dig them out of their hole for a deep playoff run. But a run to the Play-In Tournament and maybe the playoffs themselves? That’s certainly in play. And the Lakers gave up very little future flexibility to get there.

Memphis Grizzlies 

Status: Winners (sort of)

The moves: Acquired Luke Kennard, one second-round pick swap. Traded Danny Green, three second-round picks.

Luke Kennard fills a pretty big need for Memphis. They had to add more shooting and there wasn’t a better shooter available than Kennard. Memphis also gave up relatively little to get Kennard too. From all the reporting, they put a lot on the table for Kevin Durant and made a very nice offer for OG Anunoby too. But offers and getting it done are too very different things. But if the Nets and Raptors wanted more than some interesting kids and a bunch of draft picks, it was probably best for the Grizzlies to hold off.

Miami Heat 

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired cash considerations. Traded Dewayne Dedmon, one second-round pick.

The Heat have put themselves in a really tough spot with their cap sheet. Kyle Lowry has fallen off a cliff and Duncan Robinson has fallen completely off the planet. That’s essentially $45-$50 million of bad money that the Heat have to work around. That led to salary-dumping Dewayne Dedmon, which is fine. That opens up the flexibility to convert Orlando Robinson to a standard contract. But a lot of teams got better in the East and Miami didn’t.

Milwaukee Bucks

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Jae Crowder. Traded George Hill, Serge Ibaka, Jordan Nwora, five second-round picks.

After months of speculation and trying, the Bucks finally landed Jae Crowder. Assuming he can ramp up relatively quickly, Crowder gives Milwaukee that big wing/forward that they need. He’ll be even more important while Bobby Portis is out. Sure, Milwaukee seemingly gave up every second-round pick they could find, but that’s fine. This team is trying to win a title. Jordan Nwora was about out of time on his “he’s interesting” clock in Milwaukee, and removing George Hill from Mike Budenholzer binkie rotation is addition by subtraction.

Minnesota Timberwolves 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mike Conley, three second-round picks. Traded D’Angelo Russell.

In a vacuum, D’Angelo Russell is a better player than Mike Conley. But basketball isn’t played in a vacuum. Fit matters and Russell’s fit with the Wolves had worn thin. He needs a new contract and he needs the ball a lot. On a team that is getting increasingly expensive, swapping Russell for Conley works on the cap sheet. It should work on the court too, especially when Karl-Anthony Towns is back. Conley will stabilize and organize things and make sure everyone gets to eat. Yes, even Rudy Gobert.

New Orleans Pelicans 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Josh Richardson. Traded Devonte’ Graham, four second-round picks.

This move is a win on the floor and on the cap sheet for the Pelicans. They needed to add some size to their backcourt, especially with Dyson Daniels currently injured. Graham had slipped out of the rotation, in part because New Orleans couldn’t play him with C.J. McCollum and Jose Alvarado. Richardson won’t have that issue. He can also play at the three, which is important given the rash of injuries the Pelicans keep running into. And clearing Graham’s long-term money off the books is good work too, given he no longer had a real place on this roster.

New York Knicks 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Josh Hart. Traded Ryan Arcidiacono, Svi Mykhailiuk, Cam Reddish, one lottery-protected first-round pick.

The Knicks turned three non-rotation players into a good rotation player. It cost them a protected pick, but that’s fine. Hart gives Tom Thibodeau a bit more size from his reserve group. Look for Immanuel Quickley to move into the on-ball role with Hart taking the backup wing minutes. Hart’s rugged style is a great fit for Thib’s rotation too. Now, if he’d only just start shooting the ball again…

Oklahoma City Thunder 

Status: Losers (but barely)

The moves: Acquired Justin Jackson, Dario Saric, three second-round picks. Traded Darius Bazley, Mike Muscala.

The writing has been on the wall for Darius Bazley in Oklahoma City for months now. Even with a lot of injuries in the frontcourt, Bazley is among the last guys Mark Daigneault turns to for minutes. He wasn’t going to be re-signed this summer either. Muscala is a real loss though. He’s been very quietly effective for the Thunder for years now. And the OKC frontcourt is really thin due to some long-term injuries. That’s why it’s no lock that the Thunder will buy out Dario Saric. He should get a chance to play. Adding three second-round picks is solid work, but did Sam Presti really need more picks? It’s probably all fine, but losing Muscala is a real blow for a team that’s played better than expected this season.

Orlando Magic 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Patrick Beverley, one second-round pick. Traded Mo Bamba.

The Magic sold low on a former top-5 pick, but it was beyond time. Once Orlando got healthy, Mo Bamba wasn’t in the rotation. He’s flashed, but five years of flashes not turning into consistent production isn’t enough to keep a guy around. Beverley will get bought out, so this was all about getting a pick. Mission accomplished, even if it’s nothing to get really excited about.

Philadelphia 76ers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Jalen McDaniels, two second-round picks. Traded Matisse Thybulle, one second-round pick.

The Sixers got better and bigger. Adding a wing was something Philadelphia needed to do and McDaniels was a nice, cost-effective addition. He’s been an inconsistent shooter, but that’s better than Matisse Thybulle who was a non-shooter. Philadelphia also go out of the tax, which is really important for a team that projects to be deep into the tax next season. That’ll be added to, if they re-sign McDaniels in unrestricted free agency.

Phoenix Suns 

Status: Winners (today), Losers (tomorrow, maybe?)

The moves: Acquired Darius Bazley, Kevin Durant, T.J. Warren. Traded Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, Dario Saric, four first-round picks, one first-round pick swap, one second-round pick.

The Suns are all-in. Kevin Durant is the biggest start to change teams at the trade deadline in years. He, almost alone, can lift Phoenix back into title contention. T.J. Warren will also help quite a bit off the bench for the Suns. Bazley is a flyer and a fine one. The downside? Some of these picks will assuredly come long after Durant and Chris Paul have set off for retirement. But that’s a problem for another day. Today, the Suns are back in the Finals mix.

Portland Trail Blazers 

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired Ryan Arcidiacono, Kevin Knox, Cam Reddish, Matisse Thybulle, one lottery-protected first-round pick, five second-round picks. Traded Josh Hart, Gary Payton II, two second-round picks.

Shrug. What is Portland doing? Josh Hart is good, even if he’s mysteriously become a non-shooter. Gary Payton II was reportedly unhappy with the Blazers, so it was probably best to move on. But Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle now enter a crowded mix that already features Anfernee Simons, Nassir Little and Shaedon Sharpe. What exactly is the goal? Even if Reddish and/or Thybulle finally pop (not a good bet, by the way) they are both free agents this summer. The Trail Blazers probably aren’t significantly worse, but they certainly aren’t any better.

Sacramento Kings 

Status: Losers (but not too harshly!)

The moves: Acquired Kessler Edwards. Traded draft rights to David Michineau.

We aren’t going to bag on the Kings. They mostly stood pat. Kessler Edwards is a decent flyer for them. Maybe he pops, maybe he doesn’t. But Sacramento could, and probably should, have done something to upgrade their rotation. They’re so close to breaking the playoff drought. They had well over $20 million in non-rotation-player salary just sitting there. They could have moved a draft pick or two. Maybe the prices were simply too high. And Sacramento shouldn’t break up even a little bit of their core. But, man, they could have really pushed things closer to the playoffs with a move or two.

San Antonio Spurs 

Status: Push (probably?)

The moves: Acquired Khem Birch, Dewayne Dedmon, Devonte’ Graham, one first-round pick, seven second-round picks. Traded Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson.

Getting a whole bunch of draft picks for Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson seems pretty good. But the Spurs did rent out a bunch of cap space this year (whatever, they weren’t close to the salary floor anyway), but also $19 million in cap space for next year (that’s not great) to get those picks. Graham will help some, as San Antonio is desperately thin at point guard. Birch will probably be fine too. But it feels like the Spurs might have been able to do more with their cap space. Also, why is Doug McDermott still around? Shooting on a bad team is like having a good closer on a bad baseball team: It’s a luxury you don’t really need.

Toronto Raptors 

Status: Losers 

The moves: Acquired Jakob Poeltl. Traded Khem Birch, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Getting Jakob Poeltl is fine. He’s a good player. Toronto should be trusted to sign him to a reasonable contract. But when that’s all you do, that’s not great. The Raptors were never going to blow it up, but keeping all of their main guys feels like a missed opportunity. The roster fits aren’t any less confusing after getting Poeltl either. And they still don’t have any shooting. This feels like an unfinished project, but the semester over and we don’t give out incompletes.

Utah Jazz 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Russell Westbrook, one first-round pick. Traded Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, two second-round picks.

The Jazz didn’t do bad, but this isn’t the return they were hoping for. After months of saying they could get a first for each of Mike Conley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, they didn’t. That’s disappointing. None of the players the Jazz acquired will likely do anything of consequence in Utah. Maybe Juan Toscano-Anderson can find some minutes. So, it’s really one pick for collection of pretty good players. That pick could be a pretty good one. It’s just not what was hoped for.

Washington Wizards 

Status: Push (maybe?)

The moves: None.

Washington didn’t do anything after the Rui Hachimura. That’s probably fine. They seem to like the guys they have. This could all go sideways if Kyle Kuzma leaves for nothing this summer, or if he gets overpaid. But for now, it’s probably fine for the Wizards, who remain stuck in the middle, forever and always.