Austin Reaves has one of those NBA success stories you love to see. Reaves went undrafted out of Oklahoma at the 2021 NBA Draft before signing a two-way contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. Following Summer League and offseason workouts, the Lakers quickly signed Reaves to a two-year, standard contract before his first official NBA game.

It’s that two-year nature of the deal that has the Lakers in a complicated spot as far as keeping Reaves beyond this season.

When Los Angeles signed Reaves, they were only able to offer him a two-year deal at the minimum. That’s sees Reaves paid $1,563,518 for this season. The reason the deal was so short and so small is that the Lakers had no other avenues with which to give Reaves a larger or longer deal. Los Angeles had already committed most of their Taxpayer MLE to Kendrick Nunn. That left just a minimum deal for Reaves, and deals signed using the Minimum Exception can only be for two years in length.

Flipping forward to today, Reaves is an integral member of the Lakers rotation and Nunn was traded to the Washington Wizards. And in a few months, Reaves will become a restricted free agent.

And that restricted free agency comes with some complications for the Lakers, because Reaves is an Arenas free agent.

In 2003, Gilbert Arenas was a breakout star with the Golden State Warriors. As Arenas emerged, Golden State happened to be a fairly expensive team. When the Washington Wizards gave Arenas a big offer sheet as a restricted free agent, the Warriors were essentially powerless to match it. That meant, despite hitting on a second-round selection, Golden State lost Arenas for nothing.

The 2005 CBA rectified things (to a point) by creating the Gilbert Arenas Provision. This gives incumbent teams a far greater opportunity at retaining players who are now classified as Arenas restricted free agents.

In order for a player to be an Arenas free agent, they must be coming off their first or second year in the NBA and they must be given a qualifying offer and made a restricted free agent. When a player is an Arenas free agent, opposing teams can still offer whatever salary they are able to give, but the incumbent team is given an avenue to match the offer.

What happens in these offers is that the first-year salary for an Arenas free agent is limited to either the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) or what a team can match using their Early Bird exception. It’s important to note that this only applies to players who are Early Bird free agents. If they are non-Bird, then the incumbent team is limited to using the NTMLE to match.

That results in what is often referred to as a “poison pill” structure for a contract. For example, here’s what a four-year, $80 million offer sheet to an Arenas free agent would look like this offseason in terms of salary structure:

• 2023-24: $11,368,000
• 2024-25: $11,936,400
• 2025-26: $27,724,010
• 2026-27: $28,971,590
• Total: four years, $80,000,000

If you think this deal looks different from most you are used to, you would be correct. The first two seasons are pretty standard. It’s the NTMLE amount, followed by a 5% raise. After that, it gets a little complicated. That’s where the “poison pill” descriptor comes into play, because of the huge jump in salary from Year 2 to Year 3.

How you determine the salaries for the last two season is you subtract the sum of Years 1 and 2 from the total salary. Then, you split the remainder over the final two seasons, with a 4.5% bump in salary from Year 3 to Year 4.

It’s the above process that makes an Arenas offer sheet a complicated one. The player still gets paid in full, but their team is allowed to match the offer by using the NTMLE (or Early Bird rights, if applicable) to do so. But there’s one more set of complications that matter here.

For the team signing the Arenas player to an offer sheet, the cap hits for them would be the average of the total salary over four years. Sticking with our four-year, $80 million example, the signing team would have cap hits of $20 million per season on their cap sheet.

The matching team is not only given the chance to match, but they are also given the ability to determine how they want the contract to hit their cap sheet, if they are under the cap when they match. They can use the actual salary structure as laid out above as the cap hit. Or the team can choose to use the average salary as the cap hit. If the team is over the cap and matches, they must use the structure where they match with the Early Bird exception or the NTMLE.

One final thing to note: If a team chooses to match, whatever version of cap hits they choose become that player’s cap hit for the life of the deal. This includes if they are traded to another team.

With all that in mind, let’s get back to Austin Reaves and his next contract.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Austin Reaves is not extension-eligible. Reaves two-year contract is too short to eligible to be extended. Only a contract between three and six seasons in length, or a previously extended contract, can be extended.

Re-signing with the Lakers using the Early Bird Exception

The Lakers are pointing towards being an over-the-cap team this coming offseason. Instead of having $30 million or so in cap space, the pre-deadline trades LA made puts them in position to re-sign recently acquired players like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves.

This is where it’s fortunate that the Lakers have Early Bird rights for Reaves. While not as flexible as full Bird rights, Early Bird rights give LA a good chance to re-sign Reaves to a reasonable salary.

This is what the maximum contract the Lakers can give Reaves projects at, should they use his Early Bird Rights:

• 2023-24: $11,331,600
• 2024-25: $12,238,000
• 2025-26: $13,144,656
• 2026-27: $14,051,184
• Total: four years, $50,765,568

Early Bird rights allows for a team to give the player a first-year salary of 105% of the average salary from the prior season. From there, the player can receive up to 8% raises. A contract using Early Bird rights must be for a minimum of two years, and can be for up to four years.

Signing with another team as a restricted free agent

This is where the Arenas Provision comes into play. We used $80 million as our example to explain the Arenas Provision, but that’s probably a little rich for Austin Reaves. But could an average salary of $15 million, for a total of $60 million, be in play? We’ve seen shooters get paid handsomely in the past. Shooters who can do a little more? Those guys always get paid.

If Reaves got a $60 million offer sheet over four years, here’s how that could look given the Arenas Provision:

• 2023-24: $11,368,000
• 2024-25: $11,936,400
• 2025-26: $17,944,059
• 2026-27: $18,751,542
• Total: four years, $60,000,000

Remember: This is the actual salary structure. The Lakers could choose to match this structure using the NTMLE and assume the above as cap hits each season.

For the team signing Reaves to an offer sheet, they would assume the average-salary structure above as the cap hits for each season. That would look like this:

• 2023-24: $15,000,000
• 2024-25: $15,000,000
• 2025-26: $15,000,000
• 2026-27: $15,000,000
• Total: four years, $60,000,000

(Note: The Lakers could also use Early Bird rights to match the salary structure for Reaves. That structure would look a lot like the one laid out under the Early Bird section, but with a similar bump from Year 2 to Year 3 in an Arenas offer sheet match.)

Summary

The Lakers are in a spot where a team can make them swallow hard to keep Austin Reaves. Matching first-year salary at roughly $11.3 million isn’t really an issue. That’s fair value for Reaves. The second-year salary on a 5% bump really isn’t a difficult decision either.

It’s that Year 3 bump, followed by Year 4, where it could get unwieldy.

If you match, and assume the actual structure as the Lakers, you keep your tax bill down for this season and next. With big money committed to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and several key free agents to sign, Los Angeles is very likely to be a tax team for at least the next two seasons.

Then, in Years 3 and 4, you’ve got Reaves on a salary potentially approaching as much as $18 to $19 million. And those could be the first years of a post-James and Davis Lakers team. That could be money the Lakers might not really want on the books, especially if they are resetting their roster.

Before we get there, it’s important to ask, is Austin Reaves even worth $15 million AAV?

He’ll be 25 before next season, so he’s not exactly a young prospect. But Reaves is pretty good. And it’s not just the Lakers limelight pumping him up either.

This season, Reaves has averaged 11.3 points on 51/39/86 shooting splits. And he’s not just a three-point shooter who happens to get to the free throw line once and a while, either. Reaves is averaging 3.3 free throw attempts per game. That’s pretty good for a reserve guard.

Reaves is also a solid defender, decent rebounder for his position and a good passer. At an AAV of $15 million, he’d rank as the 25th highest-paid shooting guard in the NBA next season. That would put him right between Lu Dort and former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’d also be just behind Luke Kennard, Kevin Huerter, teammate Malik Beasley (if his option is picked up), and just ahead of Gary Harris, former teammate Talen Horton-Tucker (a one-time Arenas guy himself) and Terance Mann.

That $15 million AAV neighborhood feels about right for Reaves. With even a slightly bigger role, he’s probably producing at a level similar to most of his contemporaries in that salary range.

If you add it all up, the Los Angeles Lakers can keep Austin Reaves. Nothing should really prevent that from happening. After very questionably losing Alex Caruso two summers ago, and then trading Talen Horton-Tucker ahead of this season, it would be good to see the Lakers lock in and keep a guard they developed.

If another team wants to play a staring contest with Los Angeles, they better be prepared to come with a big enough offer to make the Lakers blink. We’re talking something probably approaching the $75-$80 million range.

From the Lakers side, they should try to get things locked up before an offer sheet even comes. That would allow Los Angeles to keep Reaves under their own terms without having to deal with matching an offer sheet. After a couple of years of somewhat of a drain of in-house, younger talent, it’s important that the Lakers do what they can to keep Reaves.

It would be disingenuous and wrong to start any article, conversation or discussion about Ja Morant with anything but hoping that he gets the help he needs. Morant has reportedly entered a counseling facility to seek help and treatment after a series of questionable off-court decisions. As one of the NBA’s brightest young stars, everyone should be rooting for Morant to get things to a good place in his life.

It’s that place as one of the NBA’s brightest young stars that earned Morant a huge contract extension that will kick in with the start of next season. Because the NBA calendar doesn’t pause, and cap sheets don’t really adjust, we’re going to examine Morant’s extension, despite far more important factors at play. The hope is to answer some of the many questions circulating about Morant’s deal and where things may go from here.

Last summer, Morant inked a five-year, maximum extension with the Memphis Grizzlies. That contract currently projects to look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s 25% of the projected salary cap of $134 million for next season. Morant also gets the maximum 8% raises on the deal. There is also a 15% trade bonus in the contract. Notably, the extension includes no options. It’s a fully-guaranteed, five-year deal.

Now, here’s the important part: Morant’s extension includes Designated Rookie language. That means, Morant could be eligible to jump a salary tier in his deal. In order to get there, Morant would need to accomplish one of the following things:

• Win 2023 NBA MVP
• Win 2023 Defensive Player of the Year
• Be named to a 2023 All-NBA team

Obviously, as great as Morant is, he’s not winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. Perhaps oddly enough, the latter is far more of a stretch than the former.

But an All-NBA nod is on the table. Or, it was, at least.

If Morant is named to All-NBA, his contract will look like this instead:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

Making All-NBA would see Morant jump to the 30% of the cap tier. He’d still get the maximum 8% raises on the deal too. The 15% trade bonus stays, no matter what. And, importantly, there will still be no options in the deal.

As you can see, there is nearly a $39 million difference for Morant in the two deals. That’s a significant amount of money, especially when you consider some of Morant’s endorsement deals now seem to be in flux.

Morant made All-NBA second team a season ago. Had he kept up his production this season, and had the Grizzlies kept winning at a solid rate, Morant was probably a lock to make All-NBA again this season.

Now that’s in question.

There’s some thought out there that Morant could miss the remainder of the regular season. If so, he’ll have appeared in only 53 games this year. On a crowded guard line for All-NBA spots that is filled with tough decisions, voters will penalize Morant for appearing in just over half-of-a-season.

The competition for All-NBA guard spots is deep. You have players like Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards in the mix. That’s 10 players for six spots, and that’s without mixing in any of the more long-shot cases. And outside of maybe Doncic and Edwards (and that’s a tenuous maybe), none are very likely to be bumped to the forward line.

Had he not missed this stretch of time, with more absences to come, Morant would have had a strong case as one of the top-six guards in the NBA for this season. As noted previously, it was probably a lock Morant would have made All-NBA. That’s no longer the case.

All of our decisions have consequences. It’s fortunate that Morant’s recent questionable decisions haven’t gotten to a point of truly dire consequences. We have far too many examples we can point to of promising young men being cut down far too early in their lives due to bad decisions.

For Ja Morant, he might be facing a $39 million consequence for his poor decision-making. While that’s obviously not somewhere anyone wants to be, it could be far worse. Morant getting the help he needs to make sure that it doesn’t go beyond a contract consequence is what really matters here. All of the rest will take care of itself, over what we all should hope will be a long and productive NBA career for one of the NBA’s brightest young stars.

A lot has changed since we wrote about James Harden and his contract situation last year. Harden opted out of his deal after being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers, which was expected. What wasn’t expected was he then took less money in a new deal, which allowed Philadelphia to bring in both P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. In exchange for that goodwill, Harden only signed a two-year deal with a player option for next season.

That all made sense. Harden made a short-term sacrifice, knowing a long-term deal would be waiting for him this summer. He’d still get a max contract, the Sixers added some key rotation players and Philadelphia would move forward with a veteran core for at least the foreseeable future.

Or so we thought.

Around Christmastime, buzz began to build that Harden was interested in returning to the Houston Rockets in free agency. Over the last few months, that buzz is now as prevalent as the droning hum of dragonflies on a summer afternoon.

It might seem ludicrous that a 14-year veteran might leave a title contender for one of the worst teams in the league. But this is the NBA. Ludicrous things happen all the time in this league.

Reports are that Harden loves Houston. And it’s not an unrequited love either. Houston loves Harden right back. Sometimes comfort is worth more to a player than contention or money.

And, due to a quirky rule in the CBA, the money might not even be all that different for Harden if he leaves the 76ers for the Rockets this summer. Let’s dive in.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Harden is not extension-eligible. Because he opted out of his old deal and signed a new contract this summer, Harden is not able to extend with the 76ers. That’s one potential retention tool that has been taken off the table.

Re-signing with the 76ers as a free agent

Maybe the noise about James Harden and Houston is just that: noise. Maybe he has no intentions of leaving Philadelphia, where Beard aficionado Daryl Morey runs the show and Harden has teamed with Joel Embiid to form one of the league’s best duos.

The max Harden can effectively get from the Sixers projects as follows:

• 2023-24: $46,900,000
• 2024-25: $50,652,000
• 2025-26: $54,404,000
• 2026-27: $58,156,000
• Total: four years, $210,112,000

That’s the 35% of the cap maximum Harden is eligible for as a player with 14 years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $46.9 million.

You might be wondering why Harden is effectively capped at a four-year deal, when a player re-signing with Bird rights can sign for five years. Here’s where that CBA quirk of the “Over-38” rule comes into play.

Harden will turn 34 this summer. That means a five-year deal would carry him from his age-34 through age-38 seasons. That makes that final season subject to the Over-38 rule.

Now, it’s important to note that nothing prevents Philadelphia and Harden from signing a five-year deal. It would just have to be for less than the max (by a pretty large margin, because of the way cap hits work on a deal impacted by the Over-38 rule).

What happens with the Over-38 rule is that the assumption is that a player will be retired by the time they hit 38 years old (Yes, several players have tested these assumptions in recent years. Enough so that this rule has been tweaked from Over-35 to Over-36 and now to Over-38 in recent CBA negotiations). In Harden’s case, that would be on a presumptive fifth season. In this case, the salary for that fifth season would be treated as deferred compensation. The salary from that fifth season would be divided up (as percentage of the total salary) and spread across the first four seasons of the contract.

In Harden’s case, he’s presumably still a max salary player. Because no player is allowed to earn more than their individual maximum amount in first-year salary, there is nowhere to put that deferred compensation. Thus, the contract would be deemed invalid. Harden would have to take less in base salary each season, to allow for the money from the fifth season to be spread across the first four season. In that case, it would bring us right back to the $210 million amount he can get in a straight four-year, max deal.

There are ways to work around the Over-38 rule and to still sign a five-year deal, but all would involve Harden taking far less than the maximum he’s eligible for. That doesn’t seem realistic, even despite last summer’s Sixers-friendly maneuvering.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

We’ll leave this open to James Harden signing with any other team, even if all signs point to that “other” team only being the Rockets, should Harden leave the 76ers. If he leaves Philadelphia, here’s what Harden is eligible to sign for elsewhere:

• 2023-24: $46,900,000
• 2024-25: $49,245,000
• 2025-26: $51,590,000
• 2026-27: $53,935,000
• Total: four years, $201,670,000

That’s the same 35% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years. And that removes the Over-38 rule from the equation entirely, as Harden would be in his age-37 season in the final year of this deal.

We can debate if Houston should be investing most of their cap space in a Harden reunion at another point, should it come to pass. The main takeaway? The Rockets currently project to have $56.2 million in cap space this summer. That’s enough for Harden and some leftover cap room. Mostly: the path for Houston to bring Harden home is not only open, it’s completely free and clear cap-wise.

Summary

James Harden opted out of $47.4 million for this season with Philadelphia 76ers and re-signed for $33 million. We can take the player option out of the mix for next season, because that was never realistically getting picked up barring Harden getting seriously injured or his game falling apart. Neither of those have happened, so we can confidently say he sacrificed $14.4 million for this season.

Because we’re working under the assumption that Harden is still a max player, that was a one-year sacrifice, should he stay in Philadelphia. If he leaves the Sixers, Harden would be giving up a further $8.5 million.

That’s a total of about $23 million Harden would have given up, should he leave for Houston or elsewhere. For a player who has already banked in excess of $300 million, and probably has over $200 million still to come, it’s not exactly inconceivable that Harden would leave the 76ers for another team. Fully maximizing his earnings don’t seem to be a real motivation.

The Over-38 rule is obviously a complicating factor here. It removes what would have been Philadelphia’s biggest advantage: a fifth year at $61.9 million. With that off the table, an $8.5 million salary deficit spread over four years isn’t going to make a difference.

One other thing to note: If Harden is willing to take less than max money, that probably increases Houston’s chances of landing him. That would allow the Rockets to have even more cap space to work with to add talent around Harden in a homecoming. In Philadelphia, taking less really just delays a tax bill or lessens it. That’s good, but it’s not quite the same as the flexibility gained while building something new in Houston.

This seems like it will come down to Harden’s desire to remain on a readymade contender in Philadelphia. The Sixers can offer him a four-year deal which would tie him to the franchise for the same amount of time as Joel Embiid. That’s a good a start toward being a title contender for at least the next few years.

Yet, there’s a ton of smoke coming from Houston. And where there is that much smoke, there’s often fire. It’s been so well reported that Harden still considered Houston to be home, that there’s something there. If the Rockets give him most of their cap space, and then package some of their kids together in smart trades, they could be a playoff team next season.

James Harden isn’t MVP of the NBA James Harden anymore. Those days are over, but he should have been an All-Star this season. Harden is still good enough to be a featured attraction on a playoff team. At the end of the day, maybe just being a playoff team and the love showered upon him from Houston is enough for Harden to finish out his career in comfort.

The Memphis Grizzlies have become the NBA’s preeminent “draft and develop” team. Of their current roster, only Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard didn’t begin their NBA careers as Grizzlies. Memphis believes in keeping their draft picks, selecting players with upside and high work ethic, and then coaching them up to get the most of their abilities.

Another thing the Grizzlies believe in? Locking up those players to long-term contracts.

In recent years, Memphis has reached extension agreements with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams. That group of four, and presumably Desmond Bane (who will be extension-eligible to this summer), will be Grizzlies through at least 2024-25.

But there’s another player who Memphis has already extended once that could be up for another new deal before he hits free agency this summer. Let’s talk about the interesting case of Dillon Brooks.

The Veteran Extension

Brooks is in the final year of the three-year, $35 million extension he signed with Memphis in 2020. Brooks is now eligible to extend again through June 30. Here’s what that extension could look like:

• 2023-24: $13,680,000
• 2024-25: $14,774,400
• 2025-26: $15,868,800
• 2026-27: $16,963,200
• Total: four years, $61,286,400

That’s the max Brooks can get in a veteran extension. It’s a 120% bump off his current salary of $11,400,000 with 8% raises in the following years.

That’s an average of about $15.3 million per season for Brooks. That $13.7 million for next season would see Brooks ranked as the 19th highest paid small forward in the NBA, just behind Doug McDermott and ahead of Nicolas Batum. If you extrapolate that out to all wings, Brooks would be the 45th highest paid wing next season at $13.7 million.

Re-signing with the Grizzlies as a free agent

Maybe Brooks looks at the landscape this summer and sees that there are somewhere between seven and 10 team projected to have considerable cap space. Then he looks at the free agent small forwards and sees that he ranks somewhere between the third- and fifth-best free agent small forward. That could push Brooks to wait to sign a new deal until free agency.

The max Brooks could get from the Grizzlies projects to look like the follow:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap maximum Brooks is eligible for as a player with six years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $33.5 million.

Yes, that’s more than Brooks is going to get. He’s a good player, but a first-year salary of $33.5 million would make him the sixth highest paid small forward, behind Brandon Ingram and ahead of Michael Porter Jr. Of all wing players, he would rank 13th, again nestled between Ingram and Porter. Given his shooting struggles the last two seasons, that’s a bit rich for the Grizzlies.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

It probably wouldn’t make sense for Brooks to leave Memphis, as he’s comfortable there, plays a big role and the team is good. But if Brooks got wandering eyes, here’s the max another team could give him this summer:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $35,175,000
• 2025-26: $36,850,000
• 2026-27: $38,525,000
• Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same 30% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years, as Brooks would be changing teams.

This would be over double what Brooks could get by locking in for an extension with Memphis. But this is still more than Brooks is gong to get as a free agent. As much as teams value 3&D wings (or maybe it should be “3”&D in Brooks’ case), that’s not where Brooks will fall salary-wise as a free agent.

Summary

Dillon Brooks is a good player, despite the shooting challenges of the past two seasons. However, Brooks recently turned 27, so there’s probably not much, if any, improvement still to come in his game. Maybe the shooting turns back around, but everything else what it is at this point. If the shooting doesn’t bounce back, that’s a major limiting factor for Brooks.

The reality is that Brooks’ value is probably higher to the Grizzlies than it would be to another team. Could a cap space team like Orlando, Detroit or Houston add him as a mid-career veteran that would give them an infusion of wing defense? Sure. But those teams have another needs they’ll probably focus on first. In other words: Brooks probably won’t be a priority free agent for any team out of the gates this summer.

There’s also the fact that Brooks is, let’s say, an interesting personality. He’s a top-tier irritant for opponents, and that’s putting it kindly. Brooks is also a high-end irrational confidence guy. It’s not uncommon to see Brooks on the floor with several All-Stars and feel like his thought process is “I got this!”.

The Grizzlies have figured out how to make that work to their advantage. They like that he gets under the skin of opposing wing scorers. And while he might get a little wild on offense, Memphis needs that, especially when Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are out of the game. It’s an important layer of unpredictability in an offense that relies on Morant’s skywalking excellence a bit more than is comfortable at times.

Locking in on a veteran extension that would see Brooks make just north of $15 million as an average salary seems like a fair deal for both him and the Grizzlies. The potential to make slightly more could be there this summer, but that would involve leveraging an outside offer against Memphis.

If the veteran extension isn’t quite enough, a compromise for Memphis and Brooks this summer could be something that looks like this:

• 2023-24: $18,000,000
• 2024-25: $16,560,000
• 2025-26: $15,120,000
• 2026-27: $13,680,000
• Total: four years, $63,360,000

That’s a bit more total money as the Veteran Extension option for Brooks, and it gives him more money up front. Then, as he approaches his early 30s, the salary drops into what will likely be the Non-Taxpayer MLE range.

In this type of setup, Brooks wins immediately with a salary that would rank in the top-20 of small forwards and top-35 of all wings. The Grizzlies will be an over-the-cap team this offseason, but have a ton of space under the luxury tax for 2023-24. This is a good way to use some of that flexibility by giving Brooks an up-front bump for more team-friendly salaries in the later years.

No matter what, expect Memphis and Brooks to reach an agreement on a new deal. The Grizzlies aren’t in the habit of letting their players walk and Brooks should know his value is highest in Memphis. That’s a combination that rarely sees non-max players leave town.

Since the last time we did this at the opening of trade season in mid-December, quite a bit has changed. The Indiana Pacers used a chunk of next year’s cap space to renegotiate-and-extend Myles Turner’s contract. The Los Angeles Lakers made several trades to prop up this season’s roster, while also adding players they could keep long-term. The San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons both took on money that carries into next season and, just as importantly, didn’t trade some players who now project to stick around.

There are more moves to come, as teams are in the midst of buyout season for about two more weeks. However, buyout season rarely changes much as far as next summer’s spending outlook goes.

With all that in mind, it’s time to look at some updated 2023 cap space and exception projections.

(Note: 538’s 2022-23 NBA standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

1. Houston Rockets - $56.2 million
2. Utah Jazz - $53.8 million
3. San Antonio Spurs - $46.0 million
4. Oklahoma City Thunder - $30.4 million
5. Detroit Pistons - $27.9 million
6. Indiana Pacers - $26.6 million
7. Sacramento Kings - $21.5 million
8. Orlando Magic - $21.1 million

Only eight teams project to have cap space, and it could end up being fewer than that. Some of these teams are in the running for Victor Wembanyama. If they land him, then pressure to spend to win right could increase. Or the pressure could be off for a year of watching the generational prospect develop.

The Rockets projection shouldn’t change much. Houston has seven players on rookie scale contracts and two others playing out the deals they signed as second-round picks. Only Kevin Porter (his rookie scale extension kicks in next year) and Jae’Sean Tate are signed to long-term non-first contracts. Look for Houston to decline KJ Martin’s team option, in order to make him a restricted free agent. But that move won’t push the Rockets out of the top spot in available cap space.

Utah moved out some of their pending decisions at the trade deadline. They don’t have to decide on keeping Mike Conley or Jarred Vanderbilt anymore, and that increases their cap space projection by quite a bit. Even if bit players like Rudy Gay, Talen Horton-Tucker and Damian Jones opt in, the Jazz still have the second-most projected cap space in the league. Without a ton of roster spots to fill, Utah could take a major swing this summer. Keep an eye on a potential Jordan Clarkson extension to eat into a bit of their projected space.

The Spurs added some money into next year by taking on Devonte’ Graham and Khem Birch’s deals at the deadline. That’s fine, as San Antonio seems to be at least on more year out from trying to move things forward in a significant way.

The Thunder are in a really fun spot. They’ve got about $30 million to spend, and no really tough decisions to make on pending free agents. That could make Oklahoma City a threat to spend big on one major addition to a young roster that is ready to start winning at a higher rate.

Detroit kept Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks at the deadline. That changed their projection a bit for the summer. Instead of being up around the Rockets/Jazz territory, the Pistons should be middle to the pack. But with some good, young players and keeping the couple of vets, Detroit might not need to spend on a lot of players. One big addition could be in play for a roster that’s almost there.

The Pacers chose to eat into their cap space by extending Myles Turner. By using a chunk of this season’s leftover space, Indiana was able to give Turner an immediate bump in salary, while also keeping his number down for the future. This is another roster this is mostly full. Indiana could use one more forward with size. They’ve got the spending power to get that done this summer.

Sacramento is a swing team. They could easily create about $21 million in spending power. Or the Kings could stay over the cap and choose to retain a few of their own free agents. Sacramento could also make this whole thing moot by agreeing to an extension with Harrison Barnes before July. A lot might depend on how this playoff push turns out for the Kings.

Orlando didn’t trade Gary Harris at the deadline, and they won’t just waive him. That’s now the biggest difference between the Magic having in the mid-$30 million range in cap space and being in the low-$20 million range. In order to get in the mix for a $25-$30 million point guard, as has been rumored, there will have to be another move or two coming from Orlando. And that move isn’t an obvious one.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Charlotte Hornets
2. Chicago Bulls
3. Memphis Grizzlies
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
5. New York Knicks
6. Portland Trail Blazers

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these six teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

The Grizzlies remain easiest team to slot in here. They’ve got a mostly full roster after extending their own players over the years. The only real free agent of note is Dillon Brooks, and there’s a decent chance he could be the next player to extend. But even with Brooks at a fair number for both sides and Memphis should have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. The real question for the Grizzlies is about having enough roster spots to re-sign Brooks, add a free agent and bring in another drafted player.

The Hornets are a real swing team. A lot hinges on what happens with P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges. Washington wasn’t traded, so that assumes Charlotte wants to keep him. The “Hornets are ready to re-sign Miles Bridges” trial balloon was a massive miss a couple of months ago. But that situation still needs resolved. If those guys move on, the Hornets will be a cap space team.

Chicago mostly depends on how far they go to re-sign Nikola Vucevic. They didn’t trade the veteran center at the deadline, which means he’s probably getting a contract offer. Keep an eye on a potential extension for Vucevic, ideally a somewhat team-friendly one. That could clear things up for Chicago heading into what’s shaping up to be a very important summer.

Minnesota is in a good spot. They’ve got one more year before the team gets really, really expensive with Karl-Anthony Town’s supermax extension kicking in, and likely a Designated Rookie scale max extension coming for Anthony Edwards. If Naz Reid doesn’t break the bank, the Wolves should have enough room to use the full MLE this summer for the last time in a few years.

New York’s roster is mostly defined. That’s a good spot to be in, while also having access to the full MLE. Look for the Knicks to make a targeted signing to fill out their rotation.

Portland’s flexibility mostly revolves around what happens with Jerami Grant. He could extend, or he could command a big deal as a free agent. Add in some uncertainty with Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle as restricted free agents, and the Trail Blazers are in a bit of a weird place. They could just as easily slip into having only the Taxpayer MLE, pending new contracts for Grant, Reddish and Thybulle.

Non-Taxpayer or Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Los Angeles Lakers
5. Toronto Raptors
6. Washington Wizards

No team did more to change their future at the trade deadline than Brooklyn. The Nets now have a roster full of good-but-not-great players. Cam Johnson is the only major free agent for Brooklyn too. But the roster feels unfinished. With so many good players at the same positions, there’s going to be more movement coming here. If enough salary goes out, that could put the Nets in range to use the full MLE.

The Cavs outlook depends solely on what happens with new deals for Caris LeVert and Kevin Love. If those players re-sign for even semi-team-friendly terms, Cleveland will have the Non-Taxpayer MLE. If those deals push the team salary up, then the Cavaliers will have the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is now beholden to the Kyrie Irving experience. Irving says he doesn’t want to talk about his contract until the summer, but it’s the key question for the Mavs. If he re-signs, Dallas is likely to be a tax team. If Irving walks, the Mavericks could be a potential cap space team.

The Lakers made a bunch of moves ahead of the trade deadline and all seem to have a long-term bend to them. Los Angeles could still create $30 million in cap space, but for now they’ll probably focus on re-signing guys like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, while also picking up Malik Beasley’s team option. That means it’s just the Taxpayer MLE to work with again, but this time it’s with a far-more fleshed out roster.

Despite being in a million trade rumors, Toronto only brought back Jakob Poeltl and called it a deadline. Trading for Poeltl signaled the Raptors intend to re-sign him, but they still have major decisions to make with Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. Re-signing either probably makes Toronto a tax team, or really close. Letting them go would give the Raps access to the full MLE.

Much like Toronto, Washington chose to hang onto their pending free agents in Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis. This one is pretty simple: Re-signing Kuzma and Porzingis will put Washington close to the tax. Losing either will give the Wizards the full MLE. Losing both means Washington is a very unexpected cap space team.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks
2. Boston Celtics
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Golden State Warriors
5. LA Clippers
6. Miami Heat
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. New Orleans Pelicans
9. Philadelphia 76ers
10. Phoenix Suns

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

The Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Heat and Suns are all going to be tax teams, barring something really unexpected. That leaves four teams from this group with some unanswered questions.

Atlanta didn’t make any major moves. That’s got them staring at being a tax team next season. If they move John Collins (don’t laugh!) the Hawks could create enough flexibility to have the Non-Taxpayer MLE. But they also have to figure out what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic, who will be looking to cash in on one more big contract.

The Bucks will probably be deep in the tax again next season. The only way they aren’t is if Khris Middleton leaves town. That would have Milwaukee in a completely different position of having to rebuild a bit of their top-end depth, instead of figuring out how to improve on the edges of the rotation.

The Pelicans have a mostly full roster. That’s good news, as they won’t have much spending power this summer. With Zion Williamson’s max extension kicking in, New Orleans is sitting on three $30 million-plus players. Despite that, keep an eye on the Pelicans adding even more salary, as they’d be smart to decline their team option for Naji Marshall. That would get Marshall paid a year early, but by making him a restricted free agent this summer, it would remove a potentially dangerous situation with the important forward hitting unrestricted free agency in 2024.

The 76ers being a taxpayer or not is tied to James Harden’s free agency. If Harden signs for the max, Philadelphia will be deep into the tax. If Harden takes less again, the Sixers will have some flexibility. If Harden were to walk (and that buzz keeps getting a little louder), the 76ers will find themselves retooling the roster around Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and the final year of Tobias Harris’ contract.

On the heels of the NBA trade deadline, there’s always a rush to declare who won or lost trades. However, as the old saying goes: “Sometimes the best trades are ones you don’t make.”

That means, it’s not always really clear if a team won or lost at the trade deadline. And we often no idea the full impact in the days and week after either. Some deals will take years to have to their stories written.

With all that said, we can start the process of declaring winners and losers. We just have to do it with a hearty helping of understanding that this could all look really silly as things play out over time.

Atlanta Hawks

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired Saddiq Bey, Bruno Fernando, Garrison Mathews. Traded Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, seven second-round picks.

Those familiar with this author’s work know he’s a big fan of John Collins. Not trading Collins is almost enough to tab the Hawks as winner. Alas, taking that Collins bias out of the mix, the Hawks are just sort of…well…the Hawks still. Saddiq Bey is a good player, but did Atlanta need a backup forward that badly? Was the market for Collins so poor that they couldn’t have moved on? And the Hawks took on money for next year. As always, the Hawks remain confusing and stuck in the middle.

Boston Celtics

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Mike Muscala. Traded Justin Jackson, two second-round picks.

Boston isn’t a huge winner or anything. Mike Muscala will be a fourth or fifth big for them. But they filled a position of need by trading a non-rotation player. Muscala should be a good fit and the Celtics can now rest Al Horford and Rob Williams as necessary for the rest of the regular season. If Boston adds a decent wing on the buyout market, they’ll have done good in-season work.

Brooklyn Nets

Status: Losers today, Winners tomorrow

The moves: Acquired Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, five first-round picks, one first-round pick swap, three second-round picks. Traded Kevin Durant, Kessler Edwards, Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris, T.J. Warren.

The Nets are worse today. That’s life when you trade Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. But Brooklyn is now pretty well set up for years to come. Mikal Bridges is awesome. We’ll see if he can expand his offense with all the room to grow that he never fully had in Phoenix. Cam Johnson is really good too. And those Suns picks are great. The early ones might be late first-rounders, but the later ones will come long after the Suns might have set. Getting Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith and another potentially post-Doncic first in a no-leverage situation is great work. Sean Marks might have the Nets set up in a reverse-Boston style from their disastrous trade with the Celtics from so many years ago.

Charlotte Hornets 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Reggie Jackson, Svi Mykhailiuk, three second-round picks. Traded Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, one second-round pick.

Charlotte is about in the same place. They opened up more minutes for Mark Williams, which is a big win. He’s pretty good. But they lost Jalen McDaniels. He’s also pretty good. But Charlotte was in a tricky contract spot with P.J. Washington a restricted free agent this summer, and Miles Bridges restricted free agency still dangling out there. Coming away +2 in terms of second-round picks is good, especially getting back their own second-rounder this year, which should be a very good one.

Chicago Bulls 

Status: Losers

The moves: None.

The Bulls didn’t do anything. Despite the idea we espoused in the open about “sometimes the best trade is one you don’t make, that doesn’t apply to Chicago. Are they really re-signing Nikola Vucevic to a new, long-term deal this summer? He’s played fine, but that could be a really messy contract very quickly. Somehow, Chicago still has uncertainty at point guard with Lonzo Ball out, despite having a bunch of in-house options. This roster needed to be shaken up and the Bulls didn’t do it.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Status: Losers (kind of)

The moves: None.

Like the Bulls, the Cavs sat out trade season. But unlike Chicago, Cleveland didn’t have to do anything. They explored upgrading on the wing by dangling Caris LeVert and Kevin Love. Nothing came of it, and that’s ok. The Cavaliers did their big work over the summer and it’s paid off with a pretty stable roster.

Dallas Mavericks

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris. Traded Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Dallas comes out of this deadline looking pretty good. Kyrie Irving will behave himself for at least the rest of this season. That’ll be enough to give the Mavs a souped-up version of what they had with Jalen Brunson. He’ll be fine playing with Luka Doncic. The defense in Dallas is a question mark, but they’re going to be tough to stop on offense. It’s beyond this year where things get a little worrisome, but that’s tomorrow’s problem.

Denver Nuggets 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Thomas Bryant. Traded Bones Hyland, Davon Reed, one second-round pick.

Thomas Bryant is a nice enough addition for the Nuggets, but weren’t Zeke Nnaji and Jeff Green fine in the minimal minutes behind Nikola Jokic? And they created a hole at backup point guard, but the Bones Hyland situation was obviously too far gone to be salvaged. If Denver adds a quality point guard on the buyout market, and plenty look to be available, they’ll be fine.

Detroit Pistons 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired James Wiseman. Traded Saddiq Bey, Kevin Knox.

Detroit is in a weird place. They’ve again got too many centers (even after Nerlens Noel is presumably bought out) and they traded a forward everyone seems to like. But if James Wiseman can find his footing and blossom in a low-pressure environment, Detroit will be a big winner. The talent is there with Wiseman and this will be his best shot to put it all together.

Golden State Warriors 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Gary Payton II, two second-round picks. Traded James Wiseman, two second-round picks.

The Warriors got back a key cog from last year’s championship team. And they got him for a non-rotation player. That’s a win. Sure, it’s oversimplifying, but it was time for Golden State to but bait with James Wiseman. Getting someone they have familiarity with and that they know they can throw into big playoff games is a big upgrade.

Houston Rockets 

Status: Winners (kind of)

The moves: Acquired Danny Green, Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, John Wall, one first-round pick swap, two second-round picks. Traded Bruno Fernando, Eric Gordon, Garrison Mathews.

Houston traded Eric Gordon and facilitated a tax-savings move for Atlanta and they landed some draft capital for it. But was that enough? After years of shopping Gordon, the Rockets sort of just settled. They did clear a little more flexibility moving forward, which is always a plus. But there just isn’t a whole lot here. It is kind of funny that after doing that eight-player deal with the Thunder over the summer and waiving everyone, Houston could end up waiving all four guys they acquired at the deadline too.

Indiana Pacers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired George Hill, Serge Ibaka, Jordan Nwora, three second-round picks. Traded draft rights to Juan Vaulet.

The Pacers got three second-round picks for renting their cap space to facilitate Jae Crowder landing in Milwaukee. That’s a win. And keep an eye on Jordan Nwora. He’s flashed in the past. The Pacers don’t really have a lot of forwards with his size. Nwora could end up popping on his team-friendly deal.

LA Clippers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, three second-round picks. Traded Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, John Wall, one first-round pick swap, three second-round picks, one second-round pick swap

The Clippers upgraded their bench in a major way. Mason Plumlee gives them the backup center they’ve been looking for all season. Bones Hyland gives them a young player at the point guard spot. And Eric Gordon should be an upgrade on Luke Kennard, especially in terms of being healthy. If they can make themselves care enough to push homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, the Clippers could make a Finals run.

Los Angeles Lakers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Mo Bamba, Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, two second-round picks. Traded Patrick Beverley, Thomas Bryant, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Russell Westbrook, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Are the Lakers Finals contenders? No. Are they a lot better than they were before trade season? Absolutely. Each move they made at the deadline brought in a better player, or at least better fit. And that’s without factoring in the Rui Hachimura upgrade from a couple of weeks ago. Los Angeles now has a viable rotation that is deep with NBA players, and they have some size and versatility. That’s not enough to dig them out of their hole for a deep playoff run. But a run to the Play-In Tournament and maybe the playoffs themselves? That’s certainly in play. And the Lakers gave up very little future flexibility to get there.

Memphis Grizzlies 

Status: Winners (sort of)

The moves: Acquired Luke Kennard, one second-round pick swap. Traded Danny Green, three second-round picks.

Luke Kennard fills a pretty big need for Memphis. They had to add more shooting and there wasn’t a better shooter available than Kennard. Memphis also gave up relatively little to get Kennard too. From all the reporting, they put a lot on the table for Kevin Durant and made a very nice offer for OG Anunoby too. But offers and getting it done are too very different things. But if the Nets and Raptors wanted more than some interesting kids and a bunch of draft picks, it was probably best for the Grizzlies to hold off.

Miami Heat 

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired cash considerations. Traded Dewayne Dedmon, one second-round pick.

The Heat have put themselves in a really tough spot with their cap sheet. Kyle Lowry has fallen off a cliff and Duncan Robinson has fallen completely off the planet. That’s essentially $45-$50 million of bad money that the Heat have to work around. That led to salary-dumping Dewayne Dedmon, which is fine. That opens up the flexibility to convert Orlando Robinson to a standard contract. But a lot of teams got better in the East and Miami didn’t.

Milwaukee Bucks

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Jae Crowder. Traded George Hill, Serge Ibaka, Jordan Nwora, five second-round picks.

After months of speculation and trying, the Bucks finally landed Jae Crowder. Assuming he can ramp up relatively quickly, Crowder gives Milwaukee that big wing/forward that they need. He’ll be even more important while Bobby Portis is out. Sure, Milwaukee seemingly gave up every second-round pick they could find, but that’s fine. This team is trying to win a title. Jordan Nwora was about out of time on his “he’s interesting” clock in Milwaukee, and removing George Hill from Mike Budenholzer binkie rotation is addition by subtraction.

Minnesota Timberwolves 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mike Conley, three second-round picks. Traded D’Angelo Russell.

In a vacuum, D’Angelo Russell is a better player than Mike Conley. But basketball isn’t played in a vacuum. Fit matters and Russell’s fit with the Wolves had worn thin. He needs a new contract and he needs the ball a lot. On a team that is getting increasingly expensive, swapping Russell for Conley works on the cap sheet. It should work on the court too, especially when Karl-Anthony Towns is back. Conley will stabilize and organize things and make sure everyone gets to eat. Yes, even Rudy Gobert.

New Orleans Pelicans 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Josh Richardson. Traded Devonte’ Graham, four second-round picks.

This move is a win on the floor and on the cap sheet for the Pelicans. They needed to add some size to their backcourt, especially with Dyson Daniels currently injured. Graham had slipped out of the rotation, in part because New Orleans couldn’t play him with C.J. McCollum and Jose Alvarado. Richardson won’t have that issue. He can also play at the three, which is important given the rash of injuries the Pelicans keep running into. And clearing Graham’s long-term money off the books is good work too, given he no longer had a real place on this roster.

New York Knicks 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Josh Hart. Traded Ryan Arcidiacono, Svi Mykhailiuk, Cam Reddish, one lottery-protected first-round pick.

The Knicks turned three non-rotation players into a good rotation player. It cost them a protected pick, but that’s fine. Hart gives Tom Thibodeau a bit more size from his reserve group. Look for Immanuel Quickley to move into the on-ball role with Hart taking the backup wing minutes. Hart’s rugged style is a great fit for Thib’s rotation too. Now, if he’d only just start shooting the ball again…

Oklahoma City Thunder 

Status: Losers (but barely)

The moves: Acquired Justin Jackson, Dario Saric, three second-round picks. Traded Darius Bazley, Mike Muscala.

The writing has been on the wall for Darius Bazley in Oklahoma City for months now. Even with a lot of injuries in the frontcourt, Bazley is among the last guys Mark Daigneault turns to for minutes. He wasn’t going to be re-signed this summer either. Muscala is a real loss though. He’s been very quietly effective for the Thunder for years now. And the OKC frontcourt is really thin due to some long-term injuries. That’s why it’s no lock that the Thunder will buy out Dario Saric. He should get a chance to play. Adding three second-round picks is solid work, but did Sam Presti really need more picks? It’s probably all fine, but losing Muscala is a real blow for a team that’s played better than expected this season.

Orlando Magic 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Patrick Beverley, one second-round pick. Traded Mo Bamba.

The Magic sold low on a former top-5 pick, but it was beyond time. Once Orlando got healthy, Mo Bamba wasn’t in the rotation. He’s flashed, but five years of flashes not turning into consistent production isn’t enough to keep a guy around. Beverley will get bought out, so this was all about getting a pick. Mission accomplished, even if it’s nothing to get really excited about.

Philadelphia 76ers 

Status: Winners

The moves: Acquired Jalen McDaniels, two second-round picks. Traded Matisse Thybulle, one second-round pick.

The Sixers got better and bigger. Adding a wing was something Philadelphia needed to do and McDaniels was a nice, cost-effective addition. He’s been an inconsistent shooter, but that’s better than Matisse Thybulle who was a non-shooter. Philadelphia also go out of the tax, which is really important for a team that projects to be deep into the tax next season. That’ll be added to, if they re-sign McDaniels in unrestricted free agency.

Phoenix Suns 

Status: Winners (today), Losers (tomorrow, maybe?)

The moves: Acquired Darius Bazley, Kevin Durant, T.J. Warren. Traded Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, Dario Saric, four first-round picks, one first-round pick swap, one second-round pick.

The Suns are all-in. Kevin Durant is the biggest start to change teams at the trade deadline in years. He, almost alone, can lift Phoenix back into title contention. T.J. Warren will also help quite a bit off the bench for the Suns. Bazley is a flyer and a fine one. The downside? Some of these picks will assuredly come long after Durant and Chris Paul have set off for retirement. But that’s a problem for another day. Today, the Suns are back in the Finals mix.

Portland Trail Blazers 

Status: Losers

The moves: Acquired Ryan Arcidiacono, Kevin Knox, Cam Reddish, Matisse Thybulle, one lottery-protected first-round pick, five second-round picks. Traded Josh Hart, Gary Payton II, two second-round picks.

Shrug. What is Portland doing? Josh Hart is good, even if he’s mysteriously become a non-shooter. Gary Payton II was reportedly unhappy with the Blazers, so it was probably best to move on. But Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle now enter a crowded mix that already features Anfernee Simons, Nassir Little and Shaedon Sharpe. What exactly is the goal? Even if Reddish and/or Thybulle finally pop (not a good bet, by the way) they are both free agents this summer. The Trail Blazers probably aren’t significantly worse, but they certainly aren’t any better.

Sacramento Kings 

Status: Losers (but not too harshly!)

The moves: Acquired Kessler Edwards. Traded draft rights to David Michineau.

We aren’t going to bag on the Kings. They mostly stood pat. Kessler Edwards is a decent flyer for them. Maybe he pops, maybe he doesn’t. But Sacramento could, and probably should, have done something to upgrade their rotation. They’re so close to breaking the playoff drought. They had well over $20 million in non-rotation-player salary just sitting there. They could have moved a draft pick or two. Maybe the prices were simply too high. And Sacramento shouldn’t break up even a little bit of their core. But, man, they could have really pushed things closer to the playoffs with a move or two.

San Antonio Spurs 

Status: Push (probably?)

The moves: Acquired Khem Birch, Dewayne Dedmon, Devonte’ Graham, one first-round pick, seven second-round picks. Traded Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson.

Getting a whole bunch of draft picks for Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson seems pretty good. But the Spurs did rent out a bunch of cap space this year (whatever, they weren’t close to the salary floor anyway), but also $19 million in cap space for next year (that’s not great) to get those picks. Graham will help some, as San Antonio is desperately thin at point guard. Birch will probably be fine too. But it feels like the Spurs might have been able to do more with their cap space. Also, why is Doug McDermott still around? Shooting on a bad team is like having a good closer on a bad baseball team: It’s a luxury you don’t really need.

Toronto Raptors 

Status: Losers 

The moves: Acquired Jakob Poeltl. Traded Khem Birch, one first-round pick, two second-round picks.

Getting Jakob Poeltl is fine. He’s a good player. Toronto should be trusted to sign him to a reasonable contract. But when that’s all you do, that’s not great. The Raptors were never going to blow it up, but keeping all of their main guys feels like a missed opportunity. The roster fits aren’t any less confusing after getting Poeltl either. And they still don’t have any shooting. This feels like an unfinished project, but the semester over and we don’t give out incompletes.

Utah Jazz 

Status: Push

The moves: Acquired Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Russell Westbrook, one first-round pick. Traded Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, two second-round picks.

The Jazz didn’t do bad, but this isn’t the return they were hoping for. After months of saying they could get a first for each of Mike Conley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt, they didn’t. That’s disappointing. None of the players the Jazz acquired will likely do anything of consequence in Utah. Maybe Juan Toscano-Anderson can find some minutes. So, it’s really one pick for collection of pretty good players. That pick could be a pretty good one. It’s just not what was hoped for.

Washington Wizards 

Status: Push (maybe?)

The moves: None.

Washington didn’t do anything after the Rui Hachimura. That’s probably fine. They seem to like the guys they have. This could all go sideways if Kyle Kuzma leaves for nothing this summer, or if he gets overpaid. But for now, it’s probably fine for the Wizards, who remain stuck in the middle, forever and always.

The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t get Kyrie Irving. Instead, the Lakers filled out three rotation spots in a single trade. The deal involves the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Utah Jazz, and features eight players, a protected first-round pick and three second-round picks.

Here are the details:

• Lakers acquire: D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
• Timberwolves acquire: Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, three second-round picks
• Jazz acquire: Russell Westbrook, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, first-round pick

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers searched for months for a taker in a deal involving Russell Westbrook. There were reports that they got close to a trade with the Utah Jazz before the season. Early-season rumors featured talks of a deal with the Indiana Pacers. This past week had the Lakers linked to the Brooklyn Nets for Kyrie Irving.

In the end, Los Angeles turned Westbrook and one of their two tradable first-round picks into a likely starting point guard, top reserve wing and top reserve big. And the Lakers sacrificed precious little flexibility beyond this season to do so.

If the Lakers wanted to go the 2023 cap space route, they can still create around $30 million in space. But that plan is probably out the window, as Los Angeles has rebuilt their depth with two pre-deadline deals. Malik Beasley and the previously acquired Rui Hachimura are long-term keepers. Jarred Vanderbilt should be too. We’ll see what happens with D’Angelo Russell, but he’s got a great chance to stick around too. Keep an eye on a potential two-year extension for Russell with the Lakers, worth up to $67.5 million.

Russell returns back to his first NBA home, but he’s a different player this time around. Russell is a confident shooter and scorer and a far better playmaker than when he left Los Angeles six years ago. He should eventually supplant Dennis Schroder in the Lakers starting lineup. That will give the Lakers a better shooter and a better secondary playmaker alongside LeBron James.

Beasley comes in as a pure sniper off the bench. He’s already knocked down 169 three-pointers this season. That’s almost twice as many as any current Laker. There’s some overlap with Beasley and Lonnie Walker IV, but they should be able to play some minutes together. Beasley does the vast majority of his work around the arc, while Walker likes to get into the midrange areas and into the paint.

In Vanderbilt, the Lakers get the third big they’ve been looking for all season. He’ll likely come off the bench, but it’s a good bet Vanderbilt will play plenty with James and Anthony Davis in bigger frontcourt alignments. Provided he plays enough, Vanderbilt should improve on LA’s middle-of-the-pack rebounding, while giving them some solid finishing and good passing from either big position.

By adding Russell, Beasley and Vanderbilt, along with Hachimura a couple of weeks ago, the Lakers have achieved the roster balance they’ve lacked the last two seasons. They’re probably still a little guard-heavy, but not like they were before. Darvin Ham can play a lot of different ways now, and that’s not something he could do before these trades. In addition, there should be enough depth to allow James and Davis to get the rest they need in games, and possibly even a full day off, if necessary.

Rob Pelinka increased the Lakers tax bill by a minimal amount in these two deals. Pelinka did a great job to get a top-4 protection on the 2027 first-round pick he’s sending to Utah. Reports are that if the Lakers somehow keep that pick, it converts into an immediate second-round pick. That allows the Lakers to still trade the 2029 pick if they find another deal they like down the line.

These moves don’t make the Lakers into immediate title contenders. That very much remains a stretch goal. But Los Angeles is now positioned to make a real run in the Play-In Tournament. If they can get to the playoffs, no top seed is going to want the “reward” of a seven-game series with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and a team with rebuilt depth.

We’ve been waiting for the Lakers to make that all-in push. Even if it doesn’t work out perfectly, you can’t say they didn’t try. And that’s worth something all by itself.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves portion of this trade is probably the most confusing. But if you dig a little deeper, this was a trade about stability and handing even more of the reins to Anthony Edwards.

Mike Conley isn’t as good as D’Angelo Russell, but he’s cheaper. Especially when you factor in that Russell needs a new contract after the season. More importantly, Conley helps as a culture-setter for a locker room that lost some of that when they traded away Patrick Beverley.

Conley will get the Wolves into their sets, and then he’ll happily float off-ball, while Edwards, and eventually Karl-Anthony Towns, pile up the usage. When Edwards sits, Chris Finch can go to the Conley-Rudy Gobert pick-and-roll sets that Quin Snyder used with regularity in Utah.

It’s likely Minnesota will end up keeping Conley next season and fully guaranteeing his deal for $24.4 million (it’s already guaranteed for $14.3 million). Then, when Town’s four-year, $224 million extension and Edwards’ likely five-year max deal kick in with the start of the 2024-25 season, Conley will be off the books.

The Timberwolves have played better in recent weeks. They’re above .500 now and still in range of getting into the top-6 in the Western Conference, if not making a run at homecourt advantage. This trade should help keep them stable when Towns returns. Before this trade, working Towns back into the lineup, with Edwards and Russell being the primary guys, could have been very messy. Conley will help make sure that’s an easy transition, by keeping Edwards the main focus, while making sure the big men get to eat too.

Utah Jazz

It took months longer than expected, but the Jazz have finally turned towards rebuilding. A far better-than-expected start had everyone questioning if Utah would even go down this road. But Danny Ainge isn’t one for half measures. Once he has a direction, he’s going to keep it.

The Jazz have extreme flexibility moving forward. They can create over $60 million in cap space this coming offseason. And they’ve added 15 additional draft picks through 2029 over the series of trades dating back to last summer. And that’s all while having new franchise cornerstones Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Ochai Agbaji, and maybe Collin Sexton, all signed to long-term deals.

Russell Westbrook is already reportedly working on a buyout agreement. Damian Jones is unlikely to have any sort of future with Utah either. Juan Toscano-Anderson is a nice flyer for a team that is trying to build a new culture. He should fit in nicely with the “go to work” style that Will Hardy is stressing with his young team.

It’s important to note that Ainge might not be done yet, either. Jordan Clarkson could still be traded. Or he could be extended. That’s a pretty fluid situation. Kelly Olynyk could fetch a minor asset or two. And if anyone is interested in picking up Rudy Gay or Talen Horton-Tucker, that would remove their player options from the mix for next season, and only increase Utah’s cap space potential.

The Jazz have already won far too many games to catch the Rockets, Spurs, Pistons or Hornets. But falling down the fifth-best NBA Draft Lottery odds is well within range. A high pick this year, solid talent in place on the roster, a great young coach, tons of cap space and a million extra draft picks. We’ve seen this movie before. And it ends with Danny Ainge building a multi-year title contender.

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is at 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 9. That means teams are facing their last window to make significant upgrades to their roster. But there’s one more transaction window after the trade deadline has come and gone.

The buyout market has become the trade deadline’s less glamorous cousin. The big moves are done at the deadline, but there are always a handful more deals to come through the end of February.

Following the February 9 trade deadline, the next big date to watch is March 1. Players waived after March 1 are not eligible to play in that season’s playoffs. Effectively, that’s the last day for playoff teams to add anyone who is on another team’s roster after the trade deadline.

The way this happens is that the player is waived by his current team. Upon clearing waivers, which the vast majority of players do, they become a free agent. In many of these cases, players and their former team will come to an agreement to buy out the remainder of their contract. This means the player gives back some portion of their guaranteed salary in order to become a free agent.

Sometimes these buyouts occur immediately on the heels of the trade deadline and the player clears waivers by the end of the weekend. For others, the buyout negotiations may run through the All-Star break and get completed before the end of the month. But in almost all cases, any significant buyouts will occur by March 1, to allow that player to remain playoff-eligible.

Here are some key players to keep an on eye on for the 2023 buyout market. In most cases, these are veterans on an expiring contract. Some may have some salary that goes into next season, and it’s very rare for a deal running more than two seasons to be bought out. In addition, most of these players are either out of their team’s rotation, or they are blocking minutes for a younger player to get into their team’s rotation. Or their teams are expected to make other changes before the deadline, which will push them even further to the backend of the roster.

Russell Westbrook (Jazz, PG, 34)

The Jazz are going to buy out Russell Westbrook. It's just a matter of how quickly and how much he'll give back. After that, Westbrook will find a new home fairly quickly. He's not the inevitable triple-double machine he once was, but Westbrook adapted to playing a complementary role quite well with the Lakers. He'll do the same for another contender for the playoff run. Maybe even one right down the hall from the Lakers in the building they share.

Patrick Beverley (Magic, PG, 34)

(UPDATE: Waived by Orlando, 2/12/23)

Beverley is highly likely to be bought out by the Orlando Magic, following a trade that sent Mo Bamba to Los Angeles Lakers. Look for Beverley to be highly sought after by contenders who need a defensive-minded guard. Because he's been with a third (and now fourth) team, since the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Beverley, don't be surprised if he lands back there eventually. 

Danny Green (Rockets, SG, 35)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Houston, 2/12/23)

Green worked so hard to get back with the Memphis Grizzlies, only to be dealt to the rebuilding Houston Rockets. Green will very likely get bought out. His size, shooting, defense and championship experience may make him the most prized player on the buyout market. Look for every contender to at least check in on Green. He'll be on a playoff roster for sure.

Reggie Jackson (Hornets, PG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Charlotte, 2/12/23)

Sounds like the Hornets are going to set Jackson free after acquiring him for Mason Plumlee. With so many guards already in the fold, that makes sense from the Hornets perspective. Jackson should catch on somewhere, but it might take a bit. Outside of his former team, the LA Clippers, no one seems to have a huge need at point guard right now. Jackson may be able to give it a couple of weeks and see which contender can offer him the biggest role.

Will Barton (Wizards, SG, 32)

Barton is owed $14,375,000 from Washington for this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he gave some of that back to catch on with a contender. Outside of a few games here and there over the last month, Barton is completely out of the Wizards rotation. If he’s not traded, Barton is a prime buyout candidate, and he’ll help a contender in need of bench scoring.

Khem Birch (Spurs, C, 30)

Birch hadn’t play in a game in over a month for Toronto, despite being active every night. That could change with the Spurs, who now have plenty of center minutes available. A buyout for the big man would be a bit tricky, because he’s owed $6.7 million this season and $6.9 million for next season. San Antonio took on some money into next season already, so eating a little more probably isn’t a big deal. But don’t expect it.

Dewayne Dedmon (Spurs, C, 33)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with San Antonio, 2/9/23)

The Spurs didn’t acquire Dedmon to play for them. It’s unlikely he’ll even report to the team. San Antonio did that deal to get a second-round pick for eating some salary. Dedmon probably won’t be a buyout, as much as he’ll be a straight waiver. But he’ll still be available for contenders looking for a backup center. The real question is how much Dedmon has left in the tank. The Heat haven’t had much size behind Bam Adebayo, and Dedmon couldn’t crack their rotation. He might be cooked.

Goran Dragic (Bulls, PG, 36)

Dragic is clearly nearing the end of a long career, but he can still play. Despite being caught up in an overstuffed backcourt, he’s given the Bulls solid minutes. If Chicago pivots to selling, and Dragic isn’t traded, there’s a good bet he’ll be waived to let the veteran guard join a contender.

Andre Drummond (Bulls, C, 29)

Sticking in Chicago, but in the frontcourt, we have Drummond. He’s in a weird spot. Sometimes he plays, sometimes he doesn’t. When he does play, Drummond is the same guy he’s always been: terrific rebounder, solid enough finisher and mostly a mess on defense. The one challenge for a buyout for Drummond? He’s owed $3.4 million on a player option for next season. Unless he really wants to hit free agency now, the Bulls would be on the hook for some additional dead money next year.

Bryn Forbes (Timberwolves, SG, 29)

Forbes rarely plays for the Wolves. They’ve got a bunch of guards in front of him, and they’re reportedly interested in adding another backcourt player before the deadline. If so, Forbes is a good candidate to be waived. Should that happen, a contender on the lookout for some shooting off their bench could bring Forbes in for the stretch run.

Justin Holiday (Rockets, SG, 33)

(UPDATE: Waived by Houston, 2/13/23)

It’s not really clear what the Rockets plans are, but they’re probably going to move on from Holiday. Holiday’s shooting has dipped and around the first of the year, he was replaced in the Hawks rotation by rookie A.J. Griffin. Let’s see what Houston’s appetite is for dead money, as they’re definitely moving from John Wall and probably Danny Green.

Serge Ibaka (Pacers, C, 33)

(Updated: Waived by Indiana, 2/22/23)

Ibaka wasn’t traded to the Pacers to play for them. They’ll likely straight waive the veteran big man. Whether or not a contender signs Ibaka is another question. He hasn’t played much in the last year or so, and he hasn’t looked very good when he has seen minutes.

Furkan Korkmaz (76ers, SG, 25)

Korkmaz has asked for a trade, and that’s far more likely than a buyout from the Sixers. But if Korkmaz was to sent to a team in a salary-dump deal, then the chances of a buyout go way up. He’s another guy with money into next season ($5.4 million), so that’s a factor here. If set free, Korkmaz could bring some shooting to a contender’s bench.

Alex Len (Kings, C, 29)

Len has barely played this season, but when we last saw him, he looked OK. The Kings recently took Kessler Edwards into their final roster spot. If Len’s expiring $3.9 million salary can’t be used as salary-matching in a deal, there’s a good chance he’ll get waived to open up a roster spot. He’s 29 years old and very much an old-school center, but could be worth a flyer for a contender with depth issues up front.

Kevin Love (Cavaliers, PF, 34)

This one is surprising, but there’s something going on with Love and the Cavs. He got hurt, but after getting healthy (or at least healthy-ish), Cleveland dropped him from their rotation. Love hasn’t shot it well this year, and he’s mostly a stretch 5 now, so he’s not returning anywhere near the value of his $28.9 million contract. But the Cavaliers got caught without viable frontcourt depth at the end of last season. They’ll probably just ride out Love’s deal. However, if the veteran wants to play, this is a situation to keep an eye on.

Nerlens Noel (Pistons, C, 28)

We’re at the annual “Nerlens Noel is available!” part of the NBA calendar. Noel isn’t a part of the Pistons present or their future. His $9.2 million contract for this season is probably just a bit to big to be tradable. That means Detroit will probably work a buyout with Noel and let him move on after they exhaust all trade options before Thursday’s deadline.

Kelly Olynyk (Jazz, PF, 31)

The Jazz are far more likely to trade Olynyk than they are to buy him out, but the second is somewhat of a possibility. With a pretty light guarantee next season, it’s possible that Olynyk decides he’d rather finish the year with a contender. His ability to space the floor, pass and play better-than-you-think defense would put him at the top of a lot of lists. But Olynyk’s $12.8 million salary is one Utah should be able to move without much worry if they want.

Derrick Rose (Knicks, PG ,34)

Rose hasn’t played in over a month. When we saw him earlier this season, he lacked even the limited post-injuries burst he once had and he was struggling to knock down jumpers. New York is reportedly working with Rose on finding him a new team. If that doesn’t happen, the roster spot might be more valuable to the Knicks than Rose on the bench. If there’s a buyout, some team will convince themselves to take one last shot on the 14-year veteran.

Terrence Ross (Magic, SG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Orlando, 2/12/23)

If we hadn’t already used the joke on Nerlens Noel, we’d use the “Terrence Ross is available!” joke here. We’re on trade deadline three of Ross being available, and it’s hard to see going 3-for-3 on deadlines passing without him being traded. Ross has rarely played since Orlando got healthy. But he can still provide points in a flurry off a bench. If the Magic don’t trade him, it’s hard to see why they wouldn’t buy him out and let Ross catch on with a contender.

John Wall (Rockets, PG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived by Houston, 2/12/23)

The Rockets and Wall are definitely going to go their separate ways...again. When you’re already carrying over $40 million in dead money for a guy, what’s $6 million or so more? Unlike the first buyout, this one might not even end up with Wall giving any money back. Much like Derrick Rose, the real question is: How much can Wall even help a contender?

Thaddeus Young (Raptors, PF, 34)

The entire Toronto roster is in flux ahead of the deadline. No one but Scottie Barnes and maybe Pascal Siakam seem like safe bets to remain Raptors come Thursday afternoon. Young could be dealt, as he’s on a pseudo-expiring deal with only $1 million of his $8.1 million deal guaranteed for next season. If he’s not traded, Toronto could decide to move on and buy out Young and let him finish up the year with a team trying to make a playoff run.

With all due respect to Rui Hachimura and Noah Vonleh, we have our first big trade ahead of the 2023 NBA trade deadline. Roughly two days after requesting a trade from the Brooklyn Nets, Kyrie Irving is being sent to the Dallas Mavericks. Here are the particulars:

• Dallas acquires: Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris
• Brooklyn acquires: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, 2029 Dallas first-round pick, 2027 Dallas second-round pick, 2029 Dallas second-round pick (no protections on any of the picks)
• Brooklyn creates: $5.4 million Traded Player Exception (for Kyrie Irving) and $1.8 million Traded Player Exception (for Markieff Morris)

This is a massive deal with league-wide ramifications. Let’s break it down!

Dallas Mavericks

In a trade involving a superstar, it’s generally the team that ends up with said superstar who wins the trade. For Dallas, because that superstar is Kyrie Irving, there is a good deal of risk attached.

Irving is supremely talented. He’s right up there with the best scoring point guards in the league. Irving is also a more willing passer than he’s generally given credit for. And at the end of close games, Dallas now has a second option when teams load to Luka Doncic, which they’ve lacked without Jalen Brunson.

However, before we get to the off-court risks, there are some on-court worries for the Mavericks. Doncic is currently captaining arguably the most heliocentric offensive ship in the NBA. If Irving comes in and plays Mr. Spock to Doncic’s Captain Kirk, Dallas will be in good shape. If Irving and Doncic can’t mesh together, it’ll be like when an Android user joins the group text with a bunch of Apple users. It still works, but it’s a little more complicated, messier than anyone really likes and no one is really happy they’re in there.

The Dallas defense has now lost their best big wing defender. Lineups featuring Doncic, Irving and Christian Wood will have to be scoring monsters, because they’ll probably hand a lot of points back to the opponent. But it’s the dominant offensive pairing of Doncic and Irving that the Mavs are betting on making up for any defensive deficiencies.

Then you get to the off-court challenges…and there are many.

Sticking to the financials, the Mavericks are limited to offering Irving a two-year, roughly $80 million extension. That’s pretty far under his market value, even with question marks about his fit, age, injury history and off-court worries. The reason Dallas is limited in what they can offer now, is that for six months following a trade, a player can’t extend beyond the parameters allowed in an extend-and-trade deal, which are two years and 5% raises.

That means Irving will be a free agent this summer. The Mavs inherit his Bird rights, so they’ll be able to pay Irving whatever they can agree to. Irving and his camp will likely start out asking for a four-year, $210 million contract, if not the full five-year, $272 million maximum deal Irving will be eligible for.

It’s here where we should pause to say the Nets could have offered Irving something approaching that four-year number in an extension. Their reluctance to do so is what reportedly sparked Irving to request a trade in the first place. Brooklyn reportedly wanted some levels of protections in the deal that Irving found insulting.

The question facing Mavericks governor Mark Cuban and general manager Nico Harrison is not only how much they are willing to pay Irving, but how long they are willing to sign on to Irving for? On talent alone, Irving is worth a deal that averages north of $50 million per season. That true even as he’s turning 31 years old at the end of March.

But Irving has missed considerable time over the last eight seasons. Only in the 2016-17 season, his last with the Cleveland Cavaliers, has Irving played as many as 70 games. In four years with the Nets, he logged game counts of 20, 54, 29 and 40.

There’s a lengthy injury history with Irving that includes knee injuries and shoulder injuries. On top of that, he missed considerable games during the pandemic seasons due to non-compliance with vaccination requirements. And this season, Irving served an eight-game suspension after sharing a link to an antisemitic film.

Whether it’s injuries or other very avoidable off-court issues, Irving is a good bet to miss considerable time. That’s unlikely to improve as he approaches his mid-30s. That makes locking into a long-term, maximum contract something the Nets were unwilling to do. Will Dallas? That’s a question we’ll answer this summer…maybe.

Because Irving is now highly likely to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, he could just up and leave town. It’s not like Irving hasn’t previously changed his mind after stating how happy he was to be with a team…twice.

The Markieff Morris portion of this trade was likely a throw-in for Brooklyn to save some tax money. The Nets don’t have an open roster spot, so doing a 2-for-1 deal would have meant eating a guaranteed salary. Morris has fallen to the bottom of the Nets rotation, and he’s unlikely to have any real impact in a crowded Mavs frontcourt either.

Dallas took on about $28.7 million in additional taxes and penalties in this deal. If they re-sign Irving to anything approaching a max deal this summer, they’ll likely be a long-term taxpayer.

On last thing to note for the Mavericks side: If Irving were to leave, Dallas could create in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. If nothing else, they cleared up some multi-year salary obligations in the form of Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith. But we won’t pretend like those were exactly bad contracts worth giving up even a single first-round pick to shed. The Mavs could have worked around them easily enough.

Brooklyn Nets

For the Nets, they are now free of the headache that can come from being Kyrie Irving’s employer. It’s kind of like eating a ton of chicken wings. It’s awesome for part of the time, but then you have saucy and sticky fingers, maybe the dogs try to get into the bones, and you question if the awesome part was even worth it while fighting off some heartburn later.

Brooklyn had precious little leverage here. Irving made it clear on Friday afternoon that he was leaving this summer without an extension. He then made it clear by Sunday morning that he was prepared to never play another game for the Nets. Given his upcoming free agent status, and all the issues we laid out in the Mavericks portion of this analysis, Irving wasn’t exactly a sterling trade commodity.

Yet, the Nets did OK here. Dinwiddie gives them a veteran point guard with whom the organization has a ton of familiarity. Finney-Smith is another big wing defender and a pretty good off-ball shooter and cutter. And he’s on a terrific value contract.

Jacque Vaughn can now deploy defensive lineups that feature four of Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale, Nic Claxton, Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons, and maybe even all five for stretches of games. Good luck finding much scoring space against those groups.

On the court, Brooklyn should be ok. The ceiling is lower for sure. The Nets probably aren’t title contenders anymore, even if everything goes great. The offensive production just won’t be there against the best teams. But it’s questionable if the floor even dropped an inch, given Irving’s general unreliability.

The big question for the Nets: What does Kevin Durant want to do now? Does he reissue his trade request from the summertime? Is he content to play things out and see what Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks does next? There are already reports that the Phoenix Suns are prepared to make another run at Durant, should become available via trade. And it’s a good bet Phoenix isn’t the only team having the “What’s our best offer for KD?” conversation in NBA front offices today.

Brooklyn saved a considerable chunk of change in this trade. They’ll see their tax-plus-penalties bill drop by about $26.5 million. That’s nothing to sneeze at for a team that has carried a considerable salary and tax outlay the last few seasons.

On top of that, the Nets did really well to get such a late pick from the Mavericks. In 2029, Dallas could be in Year 2 or 3 of a post-Luka Doncic rebuild. Who knows what the Mavs will look like then? And the two seconds are kind of sprinkles on top of a good-but-not-great sundae.

The Rest of the NBA

This trade has a pretty wide fallout radius. The Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns were all reportedly interested in trading for Kyrie Irving. The Lakers were even getting some fairly strong public pressure put on them from LeBron James to get a deal done. And reports early on Sunday were that the Clippers had sent the Nets a “strong offer”.

Now, those teams have to pivot. The Lakers need to upgrade their depth and, as they have since the summer, are shopping Russell Westbrook and one or both of their tradable first-round picks. They’ll do something beyond just the Rui Hachimura deal.

The Clippers remain on the hunt for a point guard. Fred VanVleet? Kyle Lowry? Mike Conley? LA seems like a good bet to come away with someone. They just won’t have the star upside of Irving.

The Suns are already known to be ready to talk Kevin Durant trades again. Failing that, they’ll move Jae Crowder and who know what else to retool their roster.

As for the 25 NBA teams we didn’t mention yet, the market is now semi-set. Because the Nets were in a tough spot with Irving, don’t expect the Toronto Raptors to come off the big asking price they’ve set for OG Anunoby, for example. Masai Ujiri will sit back and calmly explain he’s still got the leverage, whereas Sean Marks had little.

But things should start to get moving now. One major domino, if an unexpected one, has fallen. There are some others that are wobbling and ready to start a chain reaction around the league. There’s no overwhelming favorite to win the title. That means Dallas and Brooklyn may have done a deal that kicks off an arms race that won’t culminate until 3:00 PM Eastern on Thursday, February 9 when the NBA trade deadline is in the rearview mirror and rosters are set for the stretch run. Well…until buyout season wraps up a few weeks later!

The NBA is in a weird place  with less than two weeks or so out from the trade deadline on February 9. Only five teams (the Orlando Magic joined this list over the weekend) teams in the entire league are more than three games out of a spot in the Play-In Tournament. In the Western Conference, only the Houston Rockets and San Antonio spurs have no realistic shot at making the postseason.

That’s caused the trade market to be a bit jammed up. There just aren’t a lot of clearcut sellers at the moment.

Instead of presenting our annual look at who are Buyers (teams looking to add for a playoff push), Sellers (teams planning for the future), Either (teams who could buy or could sell) or Neither (teams who are likely to sit out the deadline entirely), we’re adding a twist. We’ll tell you which camp each stands in for now. (Spoiler: There are a lot of buyers!) But we’re also going to tell you what camp each team should be standing in.

Dallas Mavericks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavs are looking for help around Luka Doncic. No, it wasn’t prompted by a mural, but it’s known that Dallas is looking to find the right mix to put around Doncic.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavericks should be buying, but they have to be careful here. They’ve cleared out some of their long-term onerous salary. If they miss and take on more bad money, it’s going to get really difficult to get the right guys in the lineup with Doncic.

Denver Nuggets

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Denver probably won’t do a whole lot. They’re talking Bones Hyland deals. The Nuggets are looking to add more depth. But Denver is already $10.5 million over the tax, and they’ve got decent depth. Don’t look for much here.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Nuggets should be soft buyers. If they can flip Hyland and something (trading picks is hard because Denver has future obligations already) for a veteran to come off the bench, that’s fine. But Denver’s top-eight is really solid already. Given their limited resources, it’s going to be hard to get much of an upgrade.

Golden State Warriors

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Outside of the Andrew Wiggins-D’Angelo Russell swap, which came when the Warriors were in a retooling season, Golden State doesn’t really do in-season trades. They seem to be reluctant to move off anyone, even the youngsters who haven’t panned out. Look for the champs to add on the buyout market instead of via trade.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Golden State should be buying. The grand plan of young core stepping in as the veteran core ages out looks pretty shaky now. Instead, the Warriors should be maximizing what they have around their vets for another deep playoff run or two. James Wiseman (and maybe Moses Moody) isn’t going to get the development minutes he needs in the Bay Area. It’s time to move him for win-now help.

Houston Rockets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Houston is a seller, but one without a lot to sell. They’re looking to move Eric Gordon for the second or third deadline in a row. Beyond that, this team is mostly made of kids on their rookie scale deals. It’s hard to see any of them going anywhere.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Houston has been rumored to be in on John Collins. If the idea is to poach him for next-to-nothing, then it makes sense. But giving real value for Collins with the Rockets still rebuilding would be a bad move. Trade Gordon and keep it moving with the kids.

LA Clippers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clippers are looking for a point guard and a backup center. They’ve been linked to Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley and Fred VanVleet. All would be expensive additions, but big upgrades. As LA has shown in the past, they won’t let the former stand in the way of the latter.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clips have played well over a couple of weeks span now. They’ve shown when they care that they’re contenders. That’s enough to make it worth taking on even more in salary and tax penalties. With a bunch of midrange salaries to trade, the bet here is that LA makes at least one splashy addition before the deadline.

Los Angeles Lakers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Lakers aren’t done after the Rui Hachimura trade. They’re still looking to flesh out their rotation, while rebalancing some guard depth for wings with size. Just don’t expect a Russell Westbrook deal. That ship seems to have sailed, assuming it was ever seaworthy to begin with.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Los Angeles has shown enough when healthy that it’s worth buying. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still those guys to build around. Given the Pelicans control the Lakers pick, there’s no reason to do anything but to be as good as possible. The question remains: Will Rob Pelinka move either or both of the tradable first-round picks?

Memphis Grizzlies

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Memphis is sitting in a somewhat unique spot. They are very good, contenders even, but feel one or two guys short. The Grizzlies also are a whopping $28.9 million under the tax line. They’re talking trades, but as always, Memphis is shy about moving on from their own drafted players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Grizzlies have to get over moving their own players and go get some immediate rotation upgrades. Yes, they are young, but title contention windows snap shut as quickly as they open. Memphis is there right now. They are the best draft-and-develop team in the NBA, but it’s time to turn some of that into guys who can take them to the next level this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Minnesota is in a bit of a weird place. They are showing signs of being good, but aren’t quite there yet. They’re reportedly at least somewhat open to moving D’Angelo Russell, but need a point guard back. That sort of position-for-same-position trade is pretty rare, unless you’re swapping old for young. Buzz has picked up around Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid in recent weeks too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

It’s probably best for the Wolves to just be patient. Their big “addition” will be Karl-Anthony Towns. A trade that sends Russell away for another starting-level point guard seems unlikely. Minnesota is showing signs of figuring things out while waiting Towns return. Ride that out and make bigger moves this summer, if necessary.

New Orleans Pelicans

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Pelicans are looking (they’ve been linked to John Collins), but it seems almost like they are being opportunistic. And that’s fine. When healthy, this team has all the ingredients to make a decent playoff run.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

New Orleans shouldn’t go crazy…yet. They haven’t even seen this team as it was ideally built. Unless some sort of no-brainer deal lands at their feet, the Pels can afford to let things play out a bit. This summer feels like the big-move period vs any time in the next week or so.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Approach at the deadline: Neither

OKC is having a far better season than anyone could have ever expected. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star and the role players are developing very quickly around him. But the Thunder aren’t ready to go all-in just yet. They’re poking around, but nothing serious seems on the table for Oklahoma City.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

The Thunder are only $7.9 million under the tax line. This isn’t like last year when Sam Presti had a mountain of cap space to use. If they can add some quality size that’s signed long-term, and the cost isn’t too great, jump on that. Beyond that, it’s best for OKC to keep their flexibility into the summer.

Phoenix Suns

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Suns are looking to add. With the new ownership group set to take over before the deadline, James Jones seems to have the greenlight to add some salary. That has the Suns in on point guards (Chris Paul insurance?) and power forwards (John Collins prime among them).

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

It’s been a while since Phoenix has really geared up at the deadline, but we’re seeing things change in a major way now. Keep an eye on Jae Crowder and Dario Saric. That’s over $19 million in expiring salary. If you add Cameron Payne, and his partially guaranteed for 2023-24 deal to that mix, you’re up over $25 million in mostly-expiring salary. That’s enough to get in the mix for anyone who becomes available. The time is now for the Suns to make a big swing.

Portland Trail Blazers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

All reports are that Portland is looking to add talent to their roster at the deadline. Josh Hart and Jusuf Nurkic are available, and the Blazers have some smaller midrange salaries they could deal too. They want to keep building around Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant, who they hope to extend or re-sign.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

It feels like the Trail Blazers are setting themselves up to sit in the middle for a while. Lillard is awesome, but the rest of the roster is full of good-but-not-great players. And there aren’t enough of those players that Portland has overwhelming depth either. In what is looking like a great seller’s market, the Blazers could reset on the fly, while also improving their cap flexibility and lottery odds. That’s an opportunity that might not exist next year.

Sacramento Kings

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

It seems like Sacramento is sort of poking around to improve around the edges of their rotation. They could use another wing and a little more shooting.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Kings should be thinking bigger. They can put together over $20 million in salary for non-rotation players to go make a deal. Of that group, only Richaun Holmes has money past this season. That’s enough to get Sacramento in the mix to land a big upgrade. With over $17 million to play with under the tax line, the focus should be on adding whoever the best available wing is. It would also give the Kings a bit of insurance should Harrison Barnes leave this summer.

San Antonio Spurs

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

For years, the Spurs section was the easiest to write. They never did anything at the trade deadline. They’ve been more active lately, as they’ve leaned into a rebuild. San Antonio is listening and sorting through offers for Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson and Doug McDermott.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Poeltl isn’t a must-trade for the Spurs. He could still be re-signed to a fair contract this summer, and San Antonio doesn’t have a center ready to replace him with. That said, if a team blows them away with an offer, Poeltl shouldn’t be untouchable. Richardson and McDermott should both be dealt. Richardson is probably gone after the season, and McDermott is on a fair-value deal given the shooting he can provide. All three vets can fill needs for contenders. The Spurs should be in a great spot to get a nice return here.

Utah Jazz

Approach at the deadline: Either

Danny Ainge is doing his thing with the Jazz. He made some teardown moves over the summer, but got such good returns that Utah hasn’t bottomed out. Now, Ainge is in the market to take this from a full rebuild to a quick flip. That’s exactly how he handled it with the Celtics when they got better than expected, quicker than was expected.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Without getting crazy, Utah should still be in seller mode. In a market devoid of sellers, players like Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt and even Rudy Gay, could all net Ainge even more picks and young players to build back up with. That said, if there’s a chance to move those vets for younger vets who fit long-term around Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler (the new core pieces), the Jazz can’t go wrong there either. That’s why a guy like John Collins could make sense, even if Utah moves off a few vets too.