Arizona Cardinals

Top 51 Space: $21.4M

Pause.
Add: Kyzir White (LB, PHI, 2 years, $10M / 1 year, $5M) Has 250 tackles in the past two seasons.
Subtract: Zach Allen (DE, DEN, 3 years, $47.5M / 2 years, $32M) Arizona is simply not in the business of 2 year deals right now. DeAndre Hopkins’ eventual trade will soon top this list.

Atlanta Falcons

Top 51 Space: $22.4M

Gas pedal half way down.
Add: Jessie Bates III (S, CIN, 4 years, $64M / 2 years, $36M) Top 5 free agent on most lists, fills at least 1 of ATL’s biggest holes. Keeping the O-Line intact (Lindstrom, McGary) is a close 2nd here.
Subtract: Calvin Ridley (WR, JAX, 1 year, $11M) ATL secures a 5th this year, and at least a 3rd next year (assuming he plays a normal season in JAX). If Jacksonville extends Ridley, that turns into a 2nd - which then becomes decent return value. Ridley should be on this ATL squad.

Baltimore Ravens

Top 51 Space: $7M

No Guarantees
Add: None.
Subtract: Ben Powers (G, DEN, 4 years, $51.5M  / 2 years, $27M) Is he an elite interior lineman? Nope. But $13.5M per year for 2 years isn’t elite interior lineman pay. Losing an experienced lineman in a spring where the QB position is in complete flux seems like backwards thinking.

Buffalo Bills

Top 51 Space: $10M

Still really good.
Add: Jordan Poyer (S, BUF, 2 years, $12.5M / 1 year $7M) Poyer’s return in any capacity was a welcomed surprise. But a return on a 1 year, $7M practical contract seems like a complimentary dessert course after dinner.
Subtract: Tremaine Edmunds (LB, CHI, 4 years, $72M / 3 years, $57M) The price was always going to be out of range, but Edmunds really (finally) settled into his role at the center of Buffalo’s defense last season. It appears the Bills will utilize the draft to replace him.

Carolina Panthers

Top 51 Space: $28M

Aggressive.
Add: The #1 overall pick. No offense to Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, etc… but a team handing out 4 picks and a starting wide receiver to move up in the draft will always get the nod here. The trade was processed early enough to believe they’ll at least consider listening to flip offers.
Subtract: D.J. Moore (WR, CHI) The player included in the #1 pick swap, has 3 years, $52M remaining on his contract. If Moore lives up to WR1 status, it’s outstanding value for Chicago.

Chicago Bears

Top 51 Space: $38M

Eagles 2.0?
Add: 10 players at $120M guaranteed. All of them are upgrades, most of them will start in 2023.
Subtract: The #1 pick. Obviously the plan here is to put a roster around Justin Fields that proves he’s worthy of the role going forward. If that doesn’t turn out to be the case, then what are we even doing here?

Cincinnati Bengals

Top 51 Space: $17M

Stay the course.
Add: Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, KC, 4 years, $64M / 2 years, $42M) Brown’s stock dropped in 2022, but he’s still an upgrade for a Bengals team that won’t stop trying to keep Joe Burrow protected in this contention window.
Subtract: Jessie Bates III (S, ATL, 4 years, $64M / 2 years $32M) There’s a world where Bates falls victim to having “1 elite season” with a lot of above average play elsewhere. But losing both Bates and Vonn Bell in the same offseason will be a tough hill to climb on the field, even if rebuilding the position through the draft will ease the pain financially speaking.

Cleveland Browns

Top 51 Space: $10M

Stuck, unless Deshaun arrives.
Add: Juan Thornhill (S, KC, 3 years, $21M / 2 years, $14M) A sneaky quiet signing with a player that KC absolutely wanted to retain this spring. Thornhill replaces recently released John Johnson, and should be an immediate upgrade to the secondary. Also, a facelift on the interior defensive line was necessary - but it feels like Cleveland is having to do this every offseason.
Subtract: Pick #42. I realize that moving back 32 spots in order to acquire WR Elijah Moore on a 2 year, $3.3M contract shouldn’t feel like much of a risk, but this feels like a buyer beware scenario in a spot where Cleveland should be aggressively trying to put the best possible set of weapons around Deshaun Watson in Year 2.

Dallas Cowboys

Top 51 Space: $16M

Still really good.
Add: Brandin Cooks (WR). This probably should have happened last November, but here we are a few months later, with Houston retaining $6M of the $18M guarantee for 2023. Dallas now owes their WR2 $12M this year, and a reasonable $8M in 2024 (non-guaranteed).
Subtract: Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU) While full details aren’t yet available, it appears the Texans scored Schultz at around $6M base value for 2023. Dallas certainly wasn’t interested in a multi-year guarantee here, but not kicking the tires on this 1-year showcase contract seems like a miss. Was Schultz the one saying no here?

Denver Broncos

Top 51 Space: $7M

Let Russ Sit in the Pocket.
Add: Sean Payton (COA). No offense to the completely rebuilt right side of the offensive line, but bringing in a new adult to manage this discombobulated roster was the single most important need for Denver this offseason.
Subtract: Dre'Mont Jones (DE, SEA, 3/51.3, 1/23.5) Denver isn’t exactly flush with defensive linemen these days, and Jones showed ability to get to the QB from both inside and outside last season. Seattle’s $23M Year 1 cash flow likely scared off more than a few other contenders here though.

Detroit Lions

Top 51 Space: $25M

The Corner has been Turned.
Add: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, PHI,1 year, $6.5M) CGJ was a ball hawk when available to Philly last season, and it’s his injury history that likely tempered his contract this free agency. The Lions are happy to be that showcase team for 2023. His ability to turn the ball over may win the Lions a ballgame or two this season, and the price is certainly right.
Subtract: Jamaal Williams (RB, NO, 3 years, $12M / 2 years, $8.1M) He’s almost 28 year old, so shame on me for calling this a tough loss, but the Lions haven’t had many things work for them over the past decade. Williams’ ability to find the endzone for this team might not be replaceable - even at this stage of his career.

Green Bay Packers

Top 51 Space: $22M

Love interest.
Add: Matthew Orzech (LS, LAR, 3 years, $3.6M/1 year, $1.1M) If you don’t regular follow the Packers in March, you might be surprised to find out that they’ve made almost zero significant movement yet. This is just the status quo, and - quite obviously - larger transactions are brewing.
Subtract: Allen Lazard (WR, NYJ, 4 years, $44M / 2 years, $22M). Rodgers’ forthcoming trade aside, losing Lazard, an experienced weapon, is a downgrade for Jordan Love’s offense, that appears to be flush with youth for the upcoming season.

Houston Texans

Top 51 Space: $25M

Strength in numbers.
Add: Volume. For the second offseason in a row, the Texans lead the world in numbers of players signed to 1 year (actual or practical) contracts.
Subtract: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (DE, CLE, 3 years, $19M / 2 years, $13M) Posted a career year in 2022 on a weak Houston defense and at 27 years old would have made sense as being factored in as one of the “core players”.

Indianapolis Colts

Top 51 Space: $21M

Different but the same.
Add: Gardner Minshew (QB, PHI, 1 years, $3.5M) Let’s say the draft doesn’t break their way and they end up with more of a “project” QB, and the Lamar Jackson offer sheet option doesn’t break their way and the Colts end up having to work from within for 2023. Minshew at $3.5M is a more than capable option, especially when paired with a solid offensive line, an elite running back, and a wide receiver ((Pittman) projected to break out next season.
Subtract: Bobby Okereke (LB, NYG, 4 years, $40M / 2 years, $22M) It was a big free agency for off ball linebackers with prices ranging from vet minimum to $18M per year. Okereke falls somewhere in the middle, despite 275 tackles over the past two seasons, and Top 5 production in 2022 alone.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Top 51 Space: $11M

The calm after last year’s storm.
Add: Calvin Ridley (WR) So many fringe contenders make a splashy March move to add another weapon to their young QB’s arsenal that helps push them to the next level. Jacksonville secured this in November. Ridley’s on a 1 year, $11M (non-guaranteed) showcase deal that could turn into a gamechanger.
Subtract: Jawaan Taylor (OT, KC, 4 years, $80M / 3 years, $60M) We knew the money was going to be crazy, but factor in $60M of practical guarantees plus the Chiefs, and it’s hard to blame Taylor for leaving the Jags this March.

Kansas City Chiefs

Top 51 Space: $6M

Surprising amount of turnover?
Add: Jawaan Taylor (OT, JAX, 4 years, $80M / 3 years, $60M). The Cheifs opted to pay Taylor $60M over the next 3 seasons instead of retaining Orlando Brown Jr, who secured $49M through 2025 with Cincy.
Subtract: Juan Thornhill (S, CLE, 3 years, $21M / 2 years, $14M) Thornhill was a Top 20 safety last year in a contract season and wound up at $7M per year through 2024 in Cleveland. This seems like one the Chiefs should have ponied up for.

Las Vegas Raiders

Top 51 Space: $15M

One leg going down, one leg going up.
Add: Pick #100. I realize I’m avoiding the 20 players who were signed this free agency thus far (including a new QB1), but securing pick #100 for Darren Waller last week seems like the kind of move we look back in on 3 years and gush at the player that was selected. It’s a really deep early Day 2 draft, and the Raiders now have more ammo for it.
Subtract: Jarrett Stidham (QB, DEN, 2 years, $10M | 1 year, $4M). I know, this seems lazy, but Garoppolo’s ability to be available for 18 weeks seem impossible based on his track record, and Stidham at least showed signs of being capable to handle Josh McDaniels’ system on a loaner rate. Losing this familiarity seems like a miss.

Los Angeles Chargers

Top 51 Space: $16M

A little too quiet.
Add: Eric Kendricks (LB, MIN, 2 years, $13.25M | 1 year, $6.75M) As the only player the Chargers have added from another team this March, Kendricks was the obvious choice here - but he’s also a solid add. Letting him manage business behind the likes of Bosa & Mack seems like a very nice triangle setup for the Chargers in 2023.
Subtract: Drue Tranquill (LB, KC, 1 year, $3M) LAC probably believes they’ve upgraded here with the above Kendricks signing, but anytime you lose a viable start to a division rival on a value contract, it has to at least be noticed.

Los Angeles Rams

Top 51 Space: $14M

Storyline. Shut it down.
Add: A third-string TE and pick #77. I realize that money does a lot of the negotiating within a trade package, but the Rams  - a franchise in desperate need of draft picks - simply didn’t get enough back for their biggest trade chip in Jalen Ramsey. How do we know this is true? The Dolphins took his traded salary, guaranteed it, and added another year at that price - and guaranteed that.
Subtract: Bobby Wagner (LB, SEA, 1 year, $7M) Obviously this was played induced, but Wagner was outstanding for the 2022 Rams, chose to opt out of $11M in 2024 to stay, and chose to sign back with division rival Seattle at just $7M max.

Miami Dolphins

Top 51 Space: $4M

Getting Defensive.
Add: Jalen Ramsey is the obvious choice here, but the Dolphins quietly added 3 Day 1 starters on the defensive side of the ball in Ramsey, MLB David Long and S Deshon Elliott. Mike White as the new QB2 is also a very intriguing add here.
Subtract: Elandon Roberts (LB, PIT, 2 years, $7M / 1 year, $3.5M) Roberts had a career year in 2022 and was likely secured a starting spot in Pittsburgh as part of his negotiations. The move leaves Miami a little thin in the linebacker spot, but the draft should close that gap shortly.

Minnesota Vikings

Top 51 Space: $1.4M

One and Done?
Add: Byron Murphy (CB, ARI, 2 years, $17.5M / 1 year, $8.6M) With Patrick Peterson off to Pittsburgh, the Vikings could have slow-played this position and let the youth simply rise to the top. Adding a 25-year-old Murphy on a 1 year guarantee is a really nice depth play for Minnesota, who appear to be thinking only about 2023 right now (rightfully so).
Subtract: Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, CLE, 4 years, $57M / 3 years, $42.5M) This contract was probably $15M + 1 year too long for Minnesota’s liking, but he’s a body they’ll need to replace in the coming weeks still. 

New England Patriots

Top 51 Space: $14M

Sneaky better?
Add: Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA, 1 year, $4.5M) Stop me if you’ve heard the high hopes for a TE joining the Patriots narrative, but this one at least comes with financial value from the get go. Gesicki + JuJu Smith-Schuster at a combined $14,5M cash this year could be a really nice shot in the arm to the Patriots’ offense - especially if a certain upgrade at QB1 comes to fruition.
Subtract: Damien Harris (RB, BUF, 1 year, $1.77M) Harris was outplayed by Rhamondre Stevenson down the stretch, but that would have been the case for plenty of RBs across the league. Losing him to a division rival at $1.5M guaranteed seems like a miss.

New Orleans Saints

Top 51 Space: $15M

Still hanging on.
Add: Derek Carr (QB, LV, 4 years, $150M | 2 years, $70M) Does Carr represent a major upgrade from the past few seasons of Jameis Winston & Andy Dalton? There are believers on both sides of that equation. But it probably didn’t take the Saints front office too long to look around their division, assess the kind of moves that were available to them this March, and pull the trigger on another “rebuild on the fly” offseason.
Subtract: David Onyemata (DT, ATL), Kaden Elliss (LB, ATL) Shy Tuttle (DT, CAR) Losing a trio of reliable defensive pieces to a division rival isn’t ideal, and when you factor in the loss of Marcus Davenport (MIN), it’s safe to assume if the Saints have simply gone through too much turnover on one side of the ball to remain competitive.

New York Giants

Top 51 Space: $4M

Run it back.
Add: Darren Waller (TE, LV, 4 years, $52M / 1 year, $11.875M) Not in love with forfeiting the #100 pick to acquire him, but a healthy Waller is a top-flight weapon for Daniel Jones to work with in 2023. You paid the QB, you trust the new system, might as well upgrade the accessories.
Subtract: Julian Love (S, SEA, 2 years, $12M / 1 year, $6.3M) Love posted a career year in 2022 and just turned 25 years old. The Giants clearly had a line of demarcation on bringing him back, and Seattle simply surpassed it.

New York Jets

Top 51 Space: $2.3M

All-In.
Add: Nathaniel Hackett (OC). This was supposed to be how the Broncos got Rodgers to Denver. Now it appears that the Jets will successfully pull off that plan, along with a familiar face or two (Allen Lazard, etc…). Hackett + Rodgers should represent a strong upgrade from what the Jets have been able to produce in the past few seasons. And that alone might be enough to make them legitimate AFC contenders.
Subtract: Elijah Moore (WR, CLE) Moore was a trade candidate even before the Aaron Rodgers conversation picked up steam, and this move satisfies one of two outcomes. 1) It becomes a more attractive pick (#42 versus #74) for trade purposes. 2) It becomes a better pick to actually use in replacing a player like Moore this April. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Top 51 Space: $11.5M

Notable Losses.
Add: Jason Kelce (C, PHI, 1 year, $14.25M) Cheating here, but it can’t be stated how important Kelce’s return is to Jalen Hurts and the organization as a whole. Kelce’s new deal carries a fake salary in 2024 that will allow the Eagles to move on from him Post June 1st next offseason (if he decides to hang them up).
Subtract: Miles Sanders (RB, CAR, 4 years, $25M / 2 years, $13.2M) It’s getting harder and harder to say that losing a RB in the offseason is a problem, but Sanders’ value to this Eagles offense was underrated in many regards. When he was knocked out of the Super Bowl early on, the offense never found the running game again. Philly likely covers this concern up dramatically with a high (potentially very high) draft selection this April.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Top 51 Space: $10M

Slow progress
Add: saac Seumalo (G, PHI, 3 years, $24M / 1 year, $8.25M) Seumalo turned a career year into a nice free agent deal, and represents another upgrade on the offensive line for a Pittsburgh team in much need for it. As with 99% of Steelers’ contracts, it’s a 1 year guarantee on its head.
Subtract: Chase Claypool (WR, CHI) Claypool was moved to Chicago at last November’s deadline, but the reward comes in the coming weeks, as the Steelers will have the #32 overall selection in the draft thanks to the trade. Addition by subtraction.

San Francisco 49ers

Top 51 Space: $5M

D-Line for Days
Add: Javon Hargrave (DL, PHI, 4 years, $84M / 2 years, $41M) Hargrave leaves a great Philly defensive line for an equally great 49ers unit. It’s also an excellent contract for a player already north of 30 years old. There’s an awful lot to like here.
Subtract: Mike McGlinchey (RT, DEN, 5 years, $87.5M / 3 years, $52.5M). The Broncos simply outpriced everyone here. Any free agent contract that has 3 years of practicality out of the gate is an outstanding deal for the player. It stands to reason that an early Day 2 draft pick is focused here.

Seattle Seahawks

Top 51 Space: $10M

Operating in parallel worlds.
Add: Dre'Mont Jones (DE, DEN, 3 years, $51M / 1 year $23M). The Seahawks added Jones in the same regard that they brought back Geno Smith - a slight front loaded overpay, with a practical out after 2023. Why is this important? Their draft capital affords them the opportunity to address both the Edge Rusher and QB1 positions in a couple of weeks. Depending on how that all plays out, they can stagger their finances in these areas as needed. Smart business.
Subtract: Rashaad Penny (RB, PHI, 1 year, $1.35M) Penny was a mixed bag in his 5 seasons in Seattle, and injuries are a big part of his resume, but he showed plenty of flashes of great worth in this Pete Carroll system. Seattle will rely on Kenneth Walker Jr. now, and will almost certainly spend another worthy draft pick on his RB2 in the coming weeks. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Top 51 Space: $5.7M

Stuck but still involved.
Add: Lavonte David (LB, 1 year, $7M) Most teams in TB’s situation would opt to rip this band-aid off and run it into the ground, but a few notable veteran contracts with upside down dead cap scenarios really hampered their ability to do so. Getting a player like David (and CB Jamal Dean for that matter) really fortifies their ability to compete in 2023. New QB Baker Mayfield has had worse options around him.
Subtract: Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT, NYG, 3 years, $12M / 1 year, $5.5M) Not a position the Buccaneers were interested in pumping more money into in their current iteration, but the Giants get a good player to add to their already bolstered defensive line. 

Tennessee Titans

Top 51 Space: $8M

Cap & standings casualties.
Add: Andre Dillard (OT, PHI, 3 years, $29M / 2 years, $17M) Taylor Lewan’s release put the Titans behind the 8 ball on the edges of their offensive line, so this signing isn’t only necessary, it has a chance to hold plenty of value at around $8.5M per year guaranteed. Dillard projects to be the starting left tackle, but that might change based on draft selections.
Subtract: David Long (LB, MIA, 2 years, $11M / 1 year, $5.5M) Struggled to stay on the field the past two seasons, but also improved mightily across his first 4 NFL seasons. The Dolphins’ scored a Day 1 starter in the middle of their defense at a reasonable 1 year tender.

Washington Commanders

Top 51 Space: $3M

A roster ready for a better QB.
Add: Jacoby Brissett (QB, CLE, 1 year, $8M) A really undersold move, as the Commanders have been vocal about giving youngster Sam Howell the keys to this team. But Washington has enough of a roster to compete in the NFC East, and if the wheels fall off early, Brissett has shown he’s more than capable of picking up the pieces and holding together a stable offense.
Subtract: Cole Holcomb (LB, PIT, 3 years, $18M / 1 year, $6M) He missed half of 2022, but is 1 season removed from 140 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions and a sack. He can fill up the stat board better than most - and now joins Linebacker U.

Now a week deep, we'll take a positional look at the largest signing, most interesting contract, and best available players across the 2023 NFL offseason. Related: 2023 NFL Free Agency Tracker

Quarterback

Top Contract

Derek Carr (Saints)
4 years, $150,000,000 ($70M practically guaranteed)
Carr locked in $60M fully guaranteed at signing with his new franchise, with another $10M set to become fully guaranteed next March. If it all goes wrong, the Saints can cut bait after 2024 for a $27.1 dead cap hit ($10M cash), saving $18.5M. For now though, 3 years, and $100M seems practical.

Of Interest

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)
1 year, $4M ($4M guaranteed)
The Buccaneers should offer Mayfield every opportunity to start all 17 weeks in 2023, making his $4M base value a potential bargain. There’s $4.5M of incentives built into this deal, but it’s a really smart reset scenario for both sides here.

Best Available

Carson Wentz (30)
He’s faltered out of his last two starting roles, so a backup contract is almost a certainty this time around. Baker Mayfield’s 1 year, $4M contract is a likely target.

Running Back

Top Contract

Miles Sanders (Panthers)
4 years, $25,000,000 ($13M guaranteed)
Sanders has the largest average salary, practical guarantee, and guarantee at sign figure among all free agent running backs, finding a solid payday in Carolina for the next two seasons. The Panthers will be able to free up over $5M to move on after 2024, making this a 2 year, $13.4M deal for practical purposes.

Of Interest

Alexander Mattison (Vikings)
2 years, $7,000,000 ($6.35M guaranteed)
The Vikings made a bit of a statement here in bringing back their RB2 on a healthy $6.35M guarantee. It stands to reason that Dalvin Cook’s time in Minnesota is limited - potentially even immediately speaking.

Best Available

Ezekiel Elliott (27)
A lot has been made about Zeke not living up to the massive contract Dallas handed him 4 years ago, but the production he was able to put together when healthy shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s already shown he can complement another RB, and he’ll be asked to do that again somewhere else in 2023.

Wide Receiver

Top Contract

Allen Lazard (Jets)
4 years, $44,000,000 ($22M guaranteed)
Lazard slots in as a proven #2 behind stud Garrett Wilson (though the Jets may not be done adding firepower), on a 2 year, $22M deal for practical purposes. A void year keeps his 2023 cap figure down to $3.2M.

Of Interest

Parris Campbell (Giants)
1 year, $4,700,000 ($2.9M guaranteed)
The Colts #59 selection back in 2019 finally found some footing in 2022 (57 catches, 581 yards, 3 TDs), and now gets a chance to build on that with a Giants offense that also found some footing last season.

Best Available

Odell Beckham, Jr. (30)
Yes he’s coming off of two ACL tears, and the idea of him playing a full 17-week season again seems unimaginable, but if the price is right (1 year, $4M-$8M + incentives) a roster that’s simply looking for a low ceiling depth add could find a lot of value here.

Tight End

Top Contract

Hayden Hurst (Panthers)
3 years, $21,750,000 ($13M guaranteed)
Hurst cashes in on a nice year with the Bengals, locking down what should be $15.25M total over the next two seasons. He’ll be a key option for what figures to be a new young QB in Carolina.

Of Interest

Robert Tonyan Jr. (Bears)
1 year, $2,650,000
Tonyan is two years removed from 50+ catches, 500+ yards, and 11 TDs alongside Aaron Rodgers’ MVP season. He was working back from injury last year, but was still a viable option in Green Bay. He joins a Bears squad where he can work in complement to Cole Kmet, with a young QB looking to make his name. The ROI on a sub $3M deal could be excellent here.

Best Available

Austin Hooper (28)
Hooper should be considered in the same conversation as Hayden Hurst, after an undetected strong 2022 campaign in Tennessee (41 grabs, 450 yards, 2 TDs). There should be a multi-year contract still sitting out there for him.

Offensive Line

Top Contract

Jawaan Taylor (OT, Chiefs)
4 years, $80,000,000 ($40M guaranteed)
KC wasted no time replacing Orlando Brown Jr., bringing over the Jaguars right tackle to switch over to left for the foreseeable future. Taylor gets $40M fully guaranteed up front, plus another $20M locked in next March. About as good as it gets on the open market these days.

Of Interest

Isaac Seumalo (G, Steelers)
3 years, $24,000,000
Seumalo had a breakout year after missing much of 2020-2021 due to injury. If he can maintain this level of play, he’ll be a massive upgrade at the left guard position for Kenny Pickett’s offense.

Best Available

Dalton Risner (G, 27)
Risner might never be an above average guard in this league, but his consistency and availability should be plenty to garner him a multi-year contract in the coming days. Is there $20M guaranteed out there?

Defensive Line

Top Contract

Javon Hargrave (49ers)
4 years, $84,000,000 ($40M guaranteed)
The Niners’ defensive line is starting to look like something out of the 70s on paper. It’s clearly a priority for this front office, as $40M fully guaranteed for a 30-year-old states out loud. All of the guarantees in this deal leave in the next two seasons, but it’s not crazy to assume that he gets 3 years, $61.5M out of this contract.

Of Interest

David Onyemata (Falcons)
3 years, $35,000,000 ($24.5M guaranteed)
The Falcons’ began their mass turnover on the defensive side of the of the ball with a strong contract to woo Onyemata away from division rival New Orleans. He’ll now park himself next to Grady Jarrett on the defensive line, and assuming he’s available (6 game suspension for PED in 2022), should immediately upgrade their ability to slow down an opponent.

Best Available

Poona Ford (DE, 27)
He’s been a bit of a one-trick-pony (run stuffer) since joining the league, but his pass rush numbers have ticked up slightly annually. There are plenty of teams looking to drop a player like this in the middle of their defense, and a 2 year, $12M deal should get it done.

Edge Defender

Top Contract

Arden Key (Titans)
3 years, $21,000,000 ($11.58M guaranteed)
Key turned a $4M prove it contract in Jacksonville into $11.5M fully guaranteed, with 2 years, $14M on the table for practical purposes. He’ll join a pretty solid Tennessee defense this season, and should fit in well with a strong cast of characters.

Of Interest

Marcus Davenport (Vikings)
1 year, $13,000,000 ($10M guaranteed)
Another Saints defender on the move, Minnesota adds an experienced pass rusher as leverage for what could be growing contention with players such as Za’Darius Smith & Danielle Hunter. The Vikings used void years to drop his 2023 cap figure down to $5.9M.

Best Available

Frank Clark (29)
Clark doesn’t have the numbers to top many “best of” lists, but he passes the eye test every single year. It stands to reason that the Chiefs would want him back in the fold at the right price, but there should be multiple offers on the table for his services at around the 1 year, $8M mark.

Linebacker

Top Contract

Tremaine Edmunds (Bears)
4 years, $72,000,000 ($50M guaranteed)
Edmunds peaked at the perfect time on his way out of Buffalo, and the Bears were ready to pounce with a massive deal. He’ll secure $22M in 2023, $42M thru 2024, and $57M thru 2025 - almost all of it fully guaranteed.

Of Interest

T.J. Edwards (Bears)
3 years, $19,500,000 ($7.9M guaranteed)
Chicago didn’t stop with one big off-ball linebacker signing. Edwards leaves the Eagles on what seems like a team-friendly 3 year, $19.5M deal, less than $8M fully guaranteed. He’ll complement Edwards in the middle of the Bears’ defense. Why didn’t the Eagles match a 1 for $8M contract here?

Best Available

Bobby Wagner (32)
Age is certainly a factor, but it didn’t appear to slow his game last season in LA. Wagner’s release wasn’t production-related - it was window-of-contention related. Every contender has reached out by now, and a 1 year, $7.5M deal + incentives should get it done.

Cornerback

Top Contract

Jamel Dean (Buccaneers)
4 years, $52,000,000 ($24.5M guaranteed)
Dean surprised most with a return to Tampa, and a deal less than $15M per year. He’s all but assured $25M+ over the next two seasons, so it’s a slightly backloaded structure. It stands to reason that Dean had stronger offers from elsewhere and simply wanted to return to the Bucs here.

Of Interest

Cameron Sutton (Lions)
3 years, $33,000,000 ($22.5M guaranteed)
Sutton leaves the Steelers for Detroit, bringing versatility and outstanding coverage numbers to a team desperate to slow down opponents this season. He earned $12.2M in 6 seasons with Pittsburgh. He’ll find $12M more in 2023 alone.

Best Available

Rock Ya-Sin (26)
Not yet 27, Ya-Sin isn’t going to provide numbers that jump off of the page, but he’ll complement an established secondary just fine going forward. The Ravens appear to have real interest here, though his $9M valuation could be too rich for their liking.

Safety

Top Contract

Jessie Bates III (Falcons)
4 years, $64,020,000 ($36M guaranteed)
One of the first big fish to be caught this March, Bates represents a massive upgrade to a Falcons’ secondary that has been absolutely torched in past seasons. He’ll cash in $23M this season thanks to an $18M signing bonus, with 2 years, $36M fully guaranteed at his disposal.

Of Interest

Jordan Poyer (Bills)
2 years, $12,500,000 ($6.24M guaranteed)
Poyer had moving boxes packed to leave Buffalo before Christmas, but clearly didn’t find the dollar figures he was hoping to on the open market - even from the tax-free state teams. His return to Buffalo on what could be a 1 year, $7M contract at minimum is all one big surprise.

Best Available

Taylor Rapp (25)
Rapp was asked to do a lot in LA, but his work as a pure tackler is what stands out most as he hits the open market. With many of the big names off the board, Rapp’s bottom line here might be pretty acceptable for interested parties. 2 years, $10M?

With the official NFL announcement that the 2023 league salary cap maximum will be set at $224,800,000, we now have confirmation on the official tag non-exclusive tag numbers for the upcoming season as well.

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag
When a player is offered a non-exclusive tag, he is still able to negotiate with other organizations. If an offer sheet is submitted and signed by the tagged play, the previous team must match the offer to keep the player. Otherwise, the player will officially sign with the new team, who will send two first round picks to the losing team in order to complete the transaction.

The Exclusive Franchise Tag
The exclusive tag is calculated much differently than the non-exclusive figure, in that it is represented by the Top 5 salaries at the respective position once the restricted free agency period ends (April). Additionally, the player is not allowed to negotiate with other teams at any point under the exclusive tag. If the player is traded after signing the exclusive tag, there is no required trade compensation. The losing team can acquire whatever package of players and/or draft picks they wish to process the transaction.

The Transition Tag
This offering has become less frequent in past offseasons, and is calculated based on the Top 10 salaries for a respective position, making them slightly lower than their corresponding franchise tender. Players are free to negotiate with other teams on a transition tag, and the previous team has the right to match an offer sheet that is signed. However, no draft pick compensation will be transerred should the losing team decline to match the offer sheet.

The Second Tag Scenario
If a player was tagged in the previous season and are offered another tag this offseason, the value of that tag will either be 120% of last year's tag, or the new figure for their respective position - whichever is greater. If a player is tagged a third straight offseason, their new tag value will represent 140% of the previous year's figure.

Important Dates & Notes

• Teams will have the ability to tag one pending unrestricted free agent from their 2022 roster starting on February 21st, 2023 through 4PM ET on March 7th.
• Tagged players then have until July 15th, 2023 to negotiate and complete a multi-year contract extension. Once that date passes, the player must play the upcoming season on a 1-year contract - through there are no restrictions to how much or little compensation the player can receive.
• If 120% of the player's salary from last season is greater than the tag number they will be tagged at the higher figure for the upcoming season.
• Teams also have the ability to rescind a tag that has not yet been signed, with no ramifications.
• Some players (Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc...) have language in their contract barring them from receiving a tag offer this offseason. This is becoming more and more common.
• Each team may only tag one pending free agent in a given year. This includes any tag (meaning a team cannot offer a franchise tag to one player and a transition tag to another player, it's one or the other).

2023 Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag & Transition Tag Figures

Notable 2023 Tag Candidates

Kaleb McGary (OT, ATL)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $18,244,000

This would be quite a story, as the Falcons declined McGary's $13.202M 5th year option for 2023 last May. He went on to post a career year, playing every snap last season. With a new QB likely coming on board, keeping an above average offensive line intact is a clear must, and McGary did enough in 2022 to at least consider throwing an overpriced tag at to keep all options on the table.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

Prediction: Exclusive Franchise Tag

Cost: $45.2M, but expected to be lower

After a few tumultuous offseasons trying to negotiate a long-term extension, it appears immiment that Jackson will be offered a tag by the Baltimore Ravens in the coming weeks. Exactly which tag will be the first detail to watch for. It's widely expected that Lamar will be offered the Exclusive Franchise Tag, currently estimated to account for $45.2M in 2023. This number comes with a few conditions. 1) Since the actual official exclusive tenders won't lock until April, the Ravens will be able to account for the non-exclusive price ($32.4M) until that happens. 2) Many of the top QB cap hits are going to be restructured (or released) in the coming weeks, largely changing the end result for this exclusive pricepoint. It's perfectly plausible that Lamar's exclusive tag price is only slightly larger than the non-exclusive figure when it's all said and done.

In this regard, it seems a no-brainer to go this route with their franchise QB, especially if a trade out of Baltimore is at least an option this Spring. The Ravens will be seeking a trade price that far exceeds the two first round picks they would assume with a non-exclusive tag trade.

Tremaine Edmunds (LB, BUF)

Prediction: Possible Transition Tag

Cost: $17,478,000

Edmunds saved his best NFL season for his contract year, playing out a $12.7M 5th-year option in 2022. The Bills haven't been quiet about their eagerness to keep him, but Brandon Beane has done very little overpaying as Bills' GM to date. Edmunds isn't a $21M franchise tag candidate, but he's at least a consideration for the $17.4M transition tender this month, despite the fact that Buffalo currently sits about $20M in the red right now.

Jessie Bates III (S, CIN)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $15.5M (120% of last year's tag)

Bates wasn't thrilled about being tagged last year, and he held out as long as possible without missing game action, so another go around wouldn't be pretty. The Bengals also drafted safety Daxton Hill in the first round last spring, putting the writing on the wall that their plan was to reset at some point here. It's not improbable to question if the Bengals could tag Bates in order to trade him, but a two first round pick price point seems too rich for most NFL teams.

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

Pollard has been the best running back on the Dallas roster for a few seasons now, so to see his rookie contract expire with such a devastating injury is extremely unfortunate. Pollard's recovery time is right around the draft, so he should be available for the majority of offseason workouts. Placing a 1 year guarantee on him seems the right move - regardless of the Cowboys' plans for Zeke Elliott this March.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $13,117,200 (120% of last year's tag)

Schultz didn't put together quite the same year he posted in 2021, but the connection with Prescott is still clear and obvious. With that said, the late season injury to RB Tony Pollard seems to be a clear path toward him getting the Cowboys' tag this offseason, leaving Schultz headed for the open market.

Jawaan Taylor (OT, JAX)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $18,244,000

Don't get me wrong here: Taylor is going to get paid, and the Jaguars are likely trying to keep him in the fold as we speak. Jacksonville likely doesn't have the cap flexibility to warrant an $18M tag placeholder, but if they need to keep him off of the open market and away from what is expected to be massive offers from teams like Chicago, it's not the worst option. Taylor projects to a 4 year, $56M deal in our system.

Evan Engram (TE, JAX)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $11,345,000

Engram played out 2022 on what can be considered a "showcase" contract and is certainly looking to capitalize on a strong year this offseason, with a multi-year guarantee in sight. It stands to reason that the two sides aren't too far apart here in terms of extension numbers, so if time is the only issue, slapping an $11M placeholder on him makes a lot of sense. He's likely looking for Hunter Henry's $25M guaranteed here.

Dre'Mont Jones (DE, DEN)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $19,727,000

This quietly consistent former 3rd round pick finished 2022 with career highs across the board - despite seeing action in only 13 games. He entered 2022 as a near $8M per year player in our system, and is now on pace to bank a cap-adjusted version of Carl Lawson's 3 year, $45M deal. Denver can prolong the negotiation process with an expensive tag for now, then work to get him under contract before the March 15th league year.

Orlando Brown Jr. (LT, KC)

Prediction: 2nd Tag

Cost: $19,994,400 (120% of last year's tag)

For a top contending team living right up against the cap every year, this certainly isn't the most ideal outcome, but Brown simply hasn't played like the $24M per year tackle he wishes to be contractually. A 2nd tag puts him on a 2 year, $36.5M spread across 2022-2023, which aligns much more with his calculated value - despite the lack of cap flexibility. With no blidside replacement on their roster, using the tag as a placeholder until KC can formulate more options is at least a safe starting point.

Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

This was a hail mary longshot 12 months ago, especially after Jacobs' 5th-year option was declined. That option would have come with an $8M guarantee for 2023. It now seems a foregone conclusion that the Raiders will offer a $10.1M guarantee via the franchise tag.

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

Barkley looked every bit the weapon in 2022 that he was out of the gate back in 2018, so it's easy to forget that he's had more down than up in 5 seasons. He'll be looking to broach the $12M+ mark on a 2-year guarantee, so starting with a $10.1M tag at least gives the Giants a chance to think more.

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $32,416,000

It seems weird to tag the running back instead of the quarterback in this day and age, but the long story short here is that the Giants are probably hoping to see Saquon Barkley sign the tag and play on the 1-year tender for 2023, rather than lock him into the $13M+ per year extension he's rumored to be seeking. Jones remains an inconsistent QB1, but the Giants simply don't have a better option right now. What they do have is a front office & coaching staff that appear to be more than capable of building a roster and scheme that maximizes Jones' strengths. There's probably a $30M per year extension coming soon here.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $19,743,000

It would be eye-popping to see the Patriots put a number like this on an offensive weapon, but the WR market is thin this offseason, and Meyers' name has already been attached to quite a few teams. Hunter Renfrow's $16M+ deal is a likely starting point in free agency, with Christian Kirk's deal (+ a cap adjustment) extremely plausible. In other words, putting a $19.7M placeholder on Meyers and then placing him on the trade block might be good buiness for New England. So would keeping him.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, PHI)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $14,460,000

The Saints knew they were getting into a point of no return with Gardner-Johnson when it came to his next contract, and Philadelphia might be trending toward that direction now as well. There's a world where a $14.4M tag for the 25-year-old actually represents pretty good value, and that sounds like something Howie Roseman would be considering right now. He's a $13.3M player in our system, but there's a 5 year, $80M contract out there for him on the open market.

Geno Smith (QB, SEA)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $32,416,000

It still seems crazy, but it's also extremely inevitable at this point. Geno Smith is the best option for the Seahawks in 2023, who have financial flexibility for a 1-year tender like this. It's plausible that he and Daniel Jones sign similiar extensions this offseason, but nobody has warranted the very definition of what a franchise tag was created to be more in recent memory than Geno Smith in 2023.

Da'Ron Payne (DT, WAS)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $18,937,000

Payne finally started to put it together in 2022, the final year of his rookie contract, and his calculated value in our system sits just south of $20M per year, but the Commanders have already fed a lot of mouths on their defensive line, and they have plenty of other holes to fill if they seek to remain in divisional contention in the near future. Offering Payne a multi-year extension that provides team flexibility is the safer route here, but he likely walks into the open market this March.

Aaron Rodgers isn't the only player trending toward a mid-March trade this offseason. Our look at 10 notable names who might be moved in the coming weeks.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, Packers)

It’s looking more and more like Rodgers & the Packers will officially part ways this time around (until of course it doesn’t).

Assuming this thing needs to get done quickly (before June 1st for contract purposes), the Packers will take on $40,313,568 of dead cap in 2023, stemming from 3 different already paid out bonuses, and a contract restructure prior to 2019. This dead cap is 100% locked in. It can’t be reduced. It can’t be transferred to a new team. The only chance for relief is a Post June 1st trade, which would split that $40.3M figure into $15.8M this year, $24.4M next.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $15,790,000 (fully guaranteed at $58.3M cash)

2024: $32,541,667 (non-guaranteed $49.3M cash)
2025: $51,151,667 (non-guaranteed $20.9M cash)
2026: $45,291,667 (non-guaranteed $15.05M cash)

The above contract assumes that the 2023 option bonus is exercised by the receiving team, who would then be on the hook for either $43.725M of dead cap after the season, or another $47M option bonus for 2024.

Justin Fields (QB, Bears)

The Fields trade conversation won’t go away until the Bears are no longer on the clock in the upcoming draft. Chicago holds leverage from every angle this offseason (cap space, draft stock, rookie QB contract). Fields enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, set to earn $2.3M against a $5.1M cap hit. A Pre June 1st trade would actually represent a $395,000 cap loss for Chicago, but that pales in comparison to what they’d be acquiring in trade compensation.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $2,375,632 (guaranteed)
2024: $3,233,448 (guaranteed)
2025: 5th-year option (decided on May of 2024)

Jalen Ramsey (CB, Rams)

The idea of Ramsey leaving LA has bounced around the metaverse a few times, so it’s at least worth building out here. Ramsey enters Year 4 of a 6 year, $114M deal, set to earn $17M against a $25.2M cap hit. A Pre June 1st trade can free up $5.6M of that cap, leaving behind $19.6M of dead cap (signing bonus + a 2021 restructure).

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $17,000,000 ($7.5M fully guaranteed)
2024: $18,500,000 ($0 guaranteed, $4M March roster bonus)

2025: $19,500,000 ($0 guaranteed, $4M March roster bonus)

Ramsey is essentially on a 1 year, $17M contract whether he stays in LA, or goes elsewhere.

Brandin Cooks (WR, Texans)

A move that probably should have happened at the deadline (with the Cowboys very much in mind here), Cooks still isn’t a lock to me moved elsewhere this offseason, thanks to a fully guaranteed $18M salary for 2023. If it gets done, a Pre June 1st trade means $16.2M of dead cap staying with Houston, freeing up $10.2M of space.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $18,352,932 ($18M fully guaranteed)
2024: $16,500,000 ($0 guaranteed, $3M March roster bonus)

It’s a 1 year, $18.5M contract on its face, but $14.4M of the 2023 cap hit can be freed up with a base salary restructure + 3 void years, so it fits the bill for a contender.

Chuck Clark (S, Ravens)

Clark was a trade candidate last offseason after Baltimore added Marcus Williams via free agency, & Kyle Hamilton at the draft, but they kept him on board to slow-play the process. That still may be the case as Clark enters a contract year, set to earn $3.64M against a $6.2M cap hit.

But if the Ravens look to get some trade value here, a move would leave behind $2.6M of dead cap, freeing up $3.64M.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $3,640,000 ($1.16M roster bonus due early March)

Donovan Smith (OT, Buccaneers)

The Bucs will face some pain this offseason as they morph into life without TB12. Moving on from your starting left tackle isn’t an ideal place to start, but the $9.95M of space to be had is certainly much needed. The 29 year old is entering a contract year, set to earn $15.25M cash against a $17.9M cap hit.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $15,250,000 ($0 guaranteed)

Smith would be in line for a new deal per a trade, currently projecting toward a 3 year, $60M contract in our system.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Cardinals)

Hopkins has hit the trade hot stove of late, though that’s cooled a bit of late. The deal holds $34.3M over the next two seasons, but none of it is guaranteed, and Hopkins is likely looking to reup to a price point that more aligns with Tyreek, Davante, etc… If the Cardinals aren’t willing to oblige, there’s $8.15M of cap to be freed up with a Pre 6/1 trade out of town.

The receiving team would take on: 

2023: $19,450,000 (non-guaranteed)
2024: $14,915,000 (non-guaranteed)

In terms of new money, Hopkins projects to a 3 year, $70M extension in our system.

Leonard Williams (DE, Giants)

After 2 extremely productive seasons in 2020-2021, Williams’ production dipped off slightly - mostly stemming from 5 weeks missed. There are a few reasons Williams finds himself on this list, and his inability to make a difference on the field isn’t one of them. 1) The Giants have a LOT of mouths to feed offensively. 2) Dexter Lawrence is in his extension window. 3) Williams is on an expiring contract with a loaded cap figure. It just may be the wrong time to extend Williams on this roster, making him a very attractive trade candidate this March. He holds a 1 year, $18M (non-guaranteed) contract if moved, freeing up over $12M of cap for the Giants.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $18,000,000 (non-guaranteed)

Frank Clark (DE, Chiefs)

Clark signed a restructured extension this past March to lower his cap hit and stay in the fold. He responded with a Frank Clark type season (5 sacks, 40 tackles), but now sits with a $30.1M cap hit for the upcoming campaign. With Chris Jones poised for a new deal, can the Chiefs extend Clark again? Will they bite the bullet on a restructure that pushes dead cap down the line? A Pre 6/1 trade leaves behind $9M of dead cap, freeing up $21.1M of cap space for KC.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $22,500,000 (non-guaranteed)

The 29-year-old projects to a 2 year, $25M extension in our system.

Ed Oliver (DT, Bills)

Oliver enters 2023 on a fully guaranteed $10.753M 5th year option. The #9 overall selection back in 2019 has made minimal impact in 62 games, putting his future in Buffalo very much in question. Will the Bills retain some of the salary in order to find a trade partner this March?

Michael Jordan turns 60-years-old today, a milestone he celebrated by processing a record-breaking $10M donation to Make-a-Wish America.

We’ll take a quick glance back at the career contracts of Jordan on the court, which, as you might imagine, pale in comparison to what he’s ascertained as a brand off of it.

The Rookie Deal

Jordan entered the NBA as the #3 overall selection back in 1984 (Hakeem Olajuwon, Sam Bowie for those asking). On September 12th, 1984 he signed a 7 year, $6.3M rookie contract with the Chicago Bulls, including a $250,000 signing bonus & a $455,000 base salary for his inaugural season. While reports on this deal are scarce, it doesn’t appear that Jordan was in line to make $1M in any of his first 7 seasons under these terms, leaving us to believe that the contract was heavily incentive-laden.

Jordan would stay on this deal through the 1987-88 season before extending, earning an estimated $2.76M for his efforts. 

The 1988 Extension

On September 20th, 1988 the Bulls did right by Jordan, voiding out the final three years of his rookie contract to get him on an 8 year, $25.7M deal. The new contract included a base salary of $2M for the 1988-89 season, more than double the $880,000 he was set to earn on his previous deal. He would go on to earn $14.1M over the next 5 seasons, before “retiring” on October 6th, 1993.

Jordan would stay away from basketball until March 18th, 1995, returning to finish out this second contract with the Bulls, who retained his rights throughout.

The Correction Contracts

In the 1996 offseason, Michael Jordan was an unrestricted free agent. So how did the Bulls respond to the possibility of losing their franchise star? By offering him a 1 year contract for $30.1M - despite the league salary cap being $24.3M that season.

How was this possible? Like now, teams could use rights to re-sign their own players past the salary cap threshold. The difference? There were no maximum contracts in the NBA. The Bulls could offer Jordan whatever they wanted, and in this essence - they did exactly that.

Next offseason, the two sides found themselves in a similar position, with Jordan on the open market, but with Chicago still holding his rights. The Bulls responded this time with a 1 year, $33.1M contract, a salary that would stand as the highest in the NBA until the 2017-18 season when both LeBron James, and Steph Curry surpassed it.

Jordan’s $33.1M salary for the 1997-98 season was more than the average NBA payroll that season. It would be his last salary as a member of the Bulls, as Jordan would once again retire on January 13th, 1999 - with the Bulls officially renouncing his rights (for the first time) on January 21st.

The Wizards Years

Michael Jordan was hired by the Washington Wizards as their President of Operations on January 19th, 2000, a job he would stay in until May of 2003. However, on September 28, 2001, Michael Jordan returned (again) to the court, signing a 2 year, $2.03M contract to join the Washington Wizards roster. The shocking move was (rightfully) muted by the chaotic 9/11 times, and he’s on record as stating that he would donate his entire $1M salary for the 2001-02 season to victims of terrorism.

Jordan battled knee injuries during the entirety of this final contract, stepping away from the game on November 28th, 2022, and officially retiring (again again) on April 3rd, 2002. 

Career Earnings

When it was all said and done, Michael Jordan reeled in approximately $94M on the court, $63.28M of which came in the 1996 & 1997 seasons alone.

He earned $91.8M from the Chicago Bulls, and another $2.03M from the Washington Wizards

Derek Carr has reportedly exercised his full no-trade clause, disallowing the Raiders to ship him out of Vegas on their terms.

The almost 32-year-old will instead await his release, then test the open market immediately. Carr’s contract famously (now) guarantees him an additional $40.4M of future salary if he’s on the roster February 15th, making this decision a swift one.

So, assuming the release becomes finalized in the next 24 hours, what might Derek Carr be seeking on the open market - and from whom?

Derek Carr’s Next Contract

Carr’s current 3 year extension carried $121.5M of new money through 2025, adding up to $141.3M over 4 years. This $40.5M annual average ranked 7th in the NFL, raising plenty of non-believer eyebrows last April. However, the structure of this deal made it such that only $24,877,519 of the deal was fully guaranteed at signing - all in 2022. The possibility of Carr leaving after last season was always baked into the cake.

So what next? Carr’s extension was a boom or bust deal. If he had played well in 2022, the Raiders would soon be restructuring his massive base salary, freeing up $25M of cap space, and continuing to build the roster around him. He didn’t, and thus he’ll be looking to restart his career elsewhere. This means a chance at a bonafide, clean slate, starting quarterback contract with a franchise that will (blindly) trust him out of the gate - and a much stronger structure.

AVERAGE ANNUAL
Carr holds a $37.7M valuation in our system currently, which would be good enough for 10th in the league (until Burrow, Hurts, Jackson, Herbert surpass him). Keeping him a Top 15 average paid QB to start the season should be a priority for Carr & his representation, as the dropoff of talent thereafter is palpable.

GUARANTEES
If we expand his market value out 2 seasons, this gives us $75M, a very likely guarantee point for Carr’s next contract. Ryan Tannehill’s 4 year extension back in 2020 locked in $62M fully guaranteed at signing over the course of two seasons. In adjusting for the current salary cap, a $75M ask over two seasons is over market, but not by much.

TOTAL CONTRACT
Carr’s looming release will automatically label him with a negative connotation, and his 2022 production (60% completion, 86 Passer Rating) certainly align with that mindset. But when considering the available options for quarterback-needy teams this offseason (especially those not in position to draft one of the best available rookies), Carr’s name sits at or near the top of this list (Rodgers’ future notwithstanding).

So is a 3 year, $114M contract in Derek Carr’s immediate future? Maybe. Carr is better than the average quarterback to hit the open market - but that doesn’t mean free agency is generally nice to these players.

Largest Guarantee at Signings by a Free Agent QB
2016: Brock Osweiler, HOU, $37M
2017: Mike Glennon, CHI, $18.5M
2018: Case Keenum, ARI, $25M
2019: Nick Foles, JAC, $45.125M
2020: Tom Brady, TB, $50M
2021: Andy Dalton, CHI, $10M
2022: Jameis Winston, NO, $15.2M

Of course, many of the QBs moving around in an offseason have been traded…

Largest Guarantee at Signing by a Traded/Extended QB
2016: Sam Bradford, MIN, $18M
2017: Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $41.7M
2018: Alex Smith, WSH, $55M
2019: Ryan Tannehill, TEN, $2M
2020: Nick Foles, CHI, $17M
2021: Teddy Bridgewater, DEN, $4.25M
2022: Deshaun Watson, CLE, $230M

Pretty all over the place set of names, right? Isn’t it fair to place Derek Carr somewhere in between these two lists, as someone who won’t necessarily be competing for the QB1 role upon signing, but also doesn’t carry the leverage, age, or recent production to maximize a contract in any way?

Spotrac’s Projection

With the Jets, Panthers, Saints, Commanders, Buccaneers, all likely at least considering a run at Carr this February, the opportunity for offers shouldn’t be scarce. Based on our above assessment, we believe Derek Carr can lock in a: 

3 year, $110M contract, $75M guaranteed ($50M guaranteed at signing)

The Super Bowl champs hit the offseason with a good portion of their core intact for the 2023 season. With multiple receivers and running backs set to hit the open market, KC will continue to piece together their weapon set this offseason, but the big questions come in the trenches. LT Orlando Brown needs at least a tag to stay in the fold, while Frank Clark’s cap hit balloons, and Chris Jones’ contract nears expiration.

RELATED
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Salary Cap
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Free Agents

Extension Candidates

• OT Orlando Brown Jr. (2nd tag possible)
• DT Chris Jones (extension)
• DE Frank Clark (bubble/extension)
• CB L'Jarius Sneed (extension)

Notable Free Agents

• OT Orlando Brown Jr.
• RT Andrew Wylie
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
• WR Mecole Hardman
• RB Jerick McKinnon
• DT Khalen Saunders
• S Juan Thornhill

The Quarterback Room

Patrick Mahomes enters Year 4 of a 12 year, $480M contract, set to earn $40.45M against a $46.8M cap hit next season. The Chiefs passed on restructuring Mahomes’ $35.8M hit this season, so it stands to reason they’ll convert his $34.4M roster bonus in the coming weeks to free up $27.52M of space for 2023. His 2023 & 2024 compensation is already fully guaranteed, and another $39.45M from 2025 locks in this coming March. It remains the largest, strongest contract in football.

QB2 Chad Henne played 2022 on a 1 year, $2M deal, and has announced his retirement following the Super Bowl win. There will there be a change in backup QB for the first time in 5 seasons.

The Running Back Room

2020 1st rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire holds a fully guaranteed $2M salary in 2023, then a $5.4M 5th-year option for 2024 that seems likely to be declined in the coming weeks. Will he remain a Chief next season? Finding a trade partner can free up $2M of cap/cash for KC.

2022 7th rounder Isiah Pacheco shot up the depth chart, so much so that CEH found himself a healthy scratch in Super Bowl 57. He’s on non-guaranteed rookie salaries through 2025.

30 year old Jerick McKinnon hit 800 yards from scrimmage on a veteran minimum deal, and is slated for free agency this March.

The Wide Receiver Room

JuJu Smith-Schuster turned a 1 year $3.76M base contract into $9.2M thanks to earned incentives. It stands to reason he’ll be seeking a multi-year guarantee this time around. With the WR market soaring, JuJu has a claim for $14M+ per year in the right situation, but a return to a contender such as Kansas City probably warrants something in the 3 year, $36M range.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling enters Year 2 of a 3 year $30M contract, set to earn $9M against an $11M cap hit. The Chiefs can move on from this deal and clear $7M of cap, but a restructure to lower the 2023 hit is much more likely here.

Kadarius Toney, acquired from the Giants for a 3rd/6th round pick, still has 2 years, $4.4M (guaranteed) plus a 5th year option in 2025. He’s been slow to get involved as of yet, but time (and low cap hits) are on everyone’s side here. Youngster Skyy Moore enters Year 2 of his rookie contract and will factor in.

Mecole Hardman is slated for unrestricted free agency, carrying a $10M valuation in our system.

The Tight End Room

Travis Kelce enters Year 4 of his 6 year $74M contract, set to earn $12.25M against a $14.8M cap hit next season. His early guarantees are now gone, putting him in a year-to-year situation contractually speaking. With three years remaining, it seems unlikely either side will push to move on this contract too much, though that likely changes this time next year.

2021 5th rounder Noah Gray enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, tripling his production from Year 1 to Year 2. He seems a likely candidate to stick behind Kelce next year.

The Offensive Line

Left Tackle Orlando Brown Jr. played out 2022 on a $16.6M franchise tag, and might be asked to do the same in 2023. It’ll cost the Chiefs $19.9M this time around, but that pales in comparison to the $60M+ guarantees being handed out to top offensive lineman on long-term deals. Brown took a bit of a step back this year, so the apprehension could be deemed warranted.

Left Guard Joe Thuney enters Year 3 of a 5 year, $80M contract, set to earn $15.5M against a $22.1M cap hit next season. His 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed, but he’ll be year-to-year thereafter. A base salary conversion plus two void years can open up $11M of cap space for KC.

2021 2nd round center Creed Humphrey had an outstanding 2022, setting his 2 years, $2.5M remaining up for huge value. He’ll become extension-eligible for the first time after 2023.

2021 6th rounder Trey Smith saw 85% of the offensive snaps this year, so his 2 years, $1.9M non-guaranteed will represent great value should he stick in a major role.

Right Tackle Andrew Wylie saw over 90% of the snaps this year on a 1 year, $2.5M contract. He’ll hit the open market this March, and there’s a world where he doubles his annual average.

The Defensive Line

DT Chris Jones enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $20M against a $28.3M cap hit. There’s mutual interest in a restructured extension, but can the Chiefs afford another blockbuster contract on their books? Jones mathematically values to $30M a year - which means he’s worth even more when it’s all said and done. A 4 year, $120M extension, $90M guaranteed is completely within reason here.

Jones’ counterpart Khalen Saunders is slated for free agency this March, carrying a much more tenable $6.5M valuation into the offseason.

The Chiefs and DE Frank Clark agreed to a restructured deal last March that dramatically lowered his 2022 cap hit, but ballooned the 2023 figure north of $30M. Did the 30-year old do enough this year (5 sacks, 39 tackles, 1 forced fumble) to warrant another restructured deal to stay? KC can open up $21.1M of cap space by moving on here.

2022 1st rounder George Karlaftis posted 6 sacks in his first campaign, taking on 60% of the Chiefs snaps this season. He may be asked to take big steps forward next year if Frank Clark leaves town.

The Linebackers

Willie Gay Jr. enters a contract year, carrying a $1.6M cap hit in 2023. He nearly doubled his career production this season, posting 88 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and a pick.

2021 2nd rounder Nick Bolton compiled 180 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble. The 22-year-old carries a basic $1.6M cap hit next year, becoming extension-eligible for the first time thereafter.

After limited snaps this season, 2022 3rd rounder Leo Chenal likely takes over the SAM role in 2023. He holds a non-guaranteed 3 years, $3.4M. Carlos Dunlap is a pending free agent.

The Secondary

2022 1st rounder Trent McDuffie missed 6 weeks, but really rounded into form down the stretch, appearing every bit the starting CB KC has been seeking. He’ll carry a team-friendly $3.8M cap figure next season.

L'Jarius Sneed put together his best season to date, posting 108 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 3 forced fumbles on 91% of the team’s snaps. He’ll get a pay bump up to $2.7M in the final year of his rookie deal, and enters the offseason as an extension candidate, carrying an $8M valuation right now.

Justin Reid was signed to a 3 year, $31.5M contract to replace Tyrann Matheiu this offseason, and he held his own in Year 1 of that adventure. The 26-year old is set to earn $9.2M against a $12.7M cap hit next year, but a simple base salary conversion plus void years can free up $6.3M of that cap as needed.

Juan Thornhill hit career highs across the board, including 71 tackles, 3 picks, and a sack in 2022. He’s slated for unrestricted free agency this March, projecting to a 4 year, $40M contract in our system. 2022 2nd rounder Bryan Cook could be asked to step up into the spotlight going forward.

The Special Teams

Kicker Harrison Butker enters Year 5 of a 6 year $21M contract, set to earn $3.7M against a $5.1M cap hit next season. Butker posted one of his least efficient seasons to date, hitting 75% of his field goals, 92% of his PATs. If the Chiefs find another option to compete, there’s almost $3M of cap space to be opened up by moving on here.

Punter Tommy Townsend was an All-Pro this year, headed to restricted free agency this March. The UDFA should be back on the low tender next season, while Long Snapper James Winchester enters a contract year, carrying a $1.3M cap hit in 2023.

The Eagles enter the offseason with a huge to-do list in front of them, starting of course with what is expected to be an historic contract extension for QB Jalen Hurts. Then comes the business of understanding how some of the long-time fixtures plan to handle their futures, most notably Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, & Brandon Graham. Toss in a few sure to be expensive pending free agents (Garnder-Johnson, Edwards, Sanders), and it won’t be boring to follow Philadelphia, who project to about $5M of Top 51 cap space currently, this March. Oh and by the way, they hold the #10 pick in the draft thanks to New Orleans.

RELATED:
2023 Eagles Salary Cap
2023 Eagles Free Agents

Extension Candidates

• QB Jalen Hurts
• CB Darius Slay

Notable Free Agents

• QB Gardner Minshew
• RB Miles Sanders
• C Jason Kelce
• RG Isaac Seumalo
• DT Fletcher Cox
• DT Javon Hargrave
• DE Brandon Graham
• LB T.J. Edwards
• CB James Bradberry
• S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
  
  

The Quarterback Room

Jalen Hurts enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $4.4M thanks to a proven performance bonus. The Eagles are going to sweeten that pot immensely, likely to the tune of $50M per year, $200M guaranteed. A 6 year, $300M extension is probably about right here.

Behind him, Gardner Minshew is headed to free agency, while 4th rounder Ian Book holds a 2 year, $1.9M deal - non-guaranteed. Do the Eagles value Minshew enough to bring him back at a healthy price? He’ll have some offers to compete for snaps elsewhere.

The Running Back Room

Miles Sanders is slated for unrestricted free agency, completing a 4 year, $5.3M rookie deal. He’ll hit the market just shy of 26 years old, and could demand around $7.25M per year based on recent production.

27-year-old Boston Scott is also set to hit the open market this March, after his usage dipped quite a bit in 2022. There’s probably not much more than a minimum contract in his future.

Youngsters Kenneth Gainwell (2 years, $1.9M), & Trey Sermon (2 years, $2.4M) could conceivably take over this position going forward.

The Wide Receiver Room

A.J. Brown enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $fa104M deal, set to earn $12M against an $8.3M cap hit. He’ll be fully guaranteed through 2024 as of March 17th and appears to be worth every penny thus far.

DeVonta Smith enters Year 3 of his rookie deal that carries 2 years, $5.9M (guaranteed) plus an option for 2025. He hit career highs across the board this season, and is locked into the WR1A role alongside Brown. Smith becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2023.

Quez Watkins enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $2.7M thanks to a proven performance escalator. Despite finding the end zone a career-high 3 times, he was utilized much less this year with the addition of Brown. There’s a path to him scoring a Zay Jones-type deal on the open market with an increased role elsewhere. $22M over 3 years might get it done.

The Tight End Room

Dallas Goedert enters Year 3 of a 5 year, $58M deal, set to earn $14.25M against a $6.6M cap. He’s fully guaranteed through 2023 currently, and $6M of 2024 compensation locks in this March.

Behind him, UDFA Jack Stoll enters a contract year on a near minimum $947,500 cap, and is eligible for restricted free agency after 2023.

The Offensive Line

Here’s where things start to get dicey. Left tackle Jordan Mailata enters Year 3 of a 5 year, $64M deal, set to earn $15M against a $7.6M cap hit. He’s fully guaranteed through this year, but his deal contains fairly easy outs thereafter.

2021 2nd rounder Landon Dickerson was a fixture at left guard this season, matching his rookie campaign from a production standpoint. His contract carries a non-guaranteed $3.28M over the next two seasons, which should represent decent value for Philly.

35-year-old center Jason Kelce has a placeholder salary in place for 2023 in the event that he retires. The kicker? A $2.75M roster bonus is already fully guaranteed, at least minimally incentivizing him to restructure and re-sign with Philly. If he hangs them up, a Post 6/1 retirement means $6.925M of dead cap for Philly in 2023, with another $11.4M for 2024. Behind him, 2022 2nd round center Cam Jurgens is primed and ready to try to fill Kelce’s shoes - if and when.

Right Guard Isaac Seumalo is slated for free agency, with $7.53M of dead cap set to hit the Eagles’ cap due to void years. He posted maybe his most consistent season of a 7 year career, and should be a strong candidate to return if the price is right. According to our system that price hovers around $12M per year.

Lane Johnson cap hit jumps from $11M this past season to $24.1M next year. His contract has already been restructured 3 times, and another full base conversion would reduce the hit by $10.4M. He remains the best right tackle in all of football when healthy. Restructure, rinse and repeat.

The Defensive Line

32-year-old Fletcher Cox holds a ($1.5M) placeholder salary in 2023, with $10M of dead cap pushed up against it. With questions surrounding his future, the Eagles left themselves a way to control this voiding dead cap should Cox decide to retire after the Super Bowl. Philly can wait to process such a move until June 2nd, splitting up the dead cap into $2.5M for 2023, $7.5M in 2024. Despite continual timely production, Cox’s overall stat lines have dipped in the past two seasons, keeping him right at his current $14M price point heading toward March.

30-year-old Javon Hargrave posted a career high 11 sacks and 37 solo tackles this past season, as he heads to the open market. He’s completing a 3 year, $39M contract in Philly, with a $20M+ valuation now attached to his name. It’s very reasonable to consider that Hargrave priced away from the Eagles this March.

DE Brandon Graham just completed his 4 year, $45M deal in Philly and is also slated for free agency this March. The almost 35-year-old followed up an injury-plagued 2021 with a career-high 11 sack season in 2022, finishing the campaign as a Top 5 edge defender according to PFF. Graham played out 2022 on a restructured $7.5M salary. Will he agree to similar compensation if he chooses to continue his career? If he hangs up the cleats, Philly will carry his $9.6M cap hit until June 1st before processing his retirement, taking on dead cap hits of $8.1M in 2023, $10.1M in 2024.

DE Josh Sweat enters Year 3 of a 4 year, $41M deal, set to earn $12M against a $6M cap hit next season, including a guaranteed $10.67M option bonus. Sweat has 18.5 sacks & 93 tackles in the past two seasons, offering huge value at a $13.3M AAV.

DE Derek Barnett tore his ACL in early September, putting his future in Philly in question. He holds a very tenable $3.1M cap hit next season ($8.5M cash to be earned) due to an option bonus, and reduced per game active salary with the time missed this season.

2022 1st rounder Jordan Davis enters Year 2 of his fully guaranteed rookie deal, and should be asked to step in full-time for either Cox or Hargrave next season.

The Linebackers

EDGE Haason Reddick stole the show this season, posting 16 sacks, 49 tackles and a whopping 5 forced fumbles in his first full season with Philly. He enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $45M deal, set to earn $15.25M against a $6.7M cap hit next season. He’s fully guaranteed through 2023, and could be eyeing a sizable extension this time next year.

OLB Kyzir White made the most of his 1 year, $3M deal, playing on 82% of the team’s snaps this season. The pending free agent could find himself near the $8.5M per year mark in the right situation this offseason.

UDFA ILB T.J. Edwards just keeps getting better and better and better, culminating with a 159 tackle season in 2022. The 26-year-old projects to a 4 year, $48M contract in our system as he heads to the open market. Will the Eagles consider him too valuable to let walk, or will 2022 3rd rounder Nakobe Dean be thrust into a starting role next season?

The Secondary

32-year-old Darius Slay continues to thwart father time, proving yet again he’s been worth every penny of his 4 year, $60.5M contract. He’s set to earn $17.5M in his contract year, against a problematic $26.1M cap hit next season. Will the Eagles restructure and leave him on the expiring deal, or extend their CB1? If we take age out of the equation, Slay is a $21.5M cornerback in our system.

29-year-old James Bradberry signed a 1 year, $7.25M “showcase” contract after being released from the Giants last May. He’ll look to nearly double that on the open market this offseason, though if he finds himself in a CB2 role again, that price might trend more toward $12M per year. Avonte Maddox should be back in the fold on a friendly $4M cap hit next season, and will likely see his role increased.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson was acquired from the Saints for a 5th & 6th round pick last August. He stole 6 passes out of the air in just 12 games played, amassing 67 tackles during that time frame. The 25-year-old is slated for free agency this March, but it seems likely that these two sides find a way to continue together. He projects to a 5 year, $66M contract in our system.

UDFA Reed Blankenship soared into a full-time role this season, and has continually shown he belongs there. The 23-year-old holds minimum salaries through 2024, with restricted free agency available thereafter.

The Special Teams

Kicker Jake Elliott enters Year 5 of a 6 year, $20M contract in Philly. He made 87% of his attempted field goals, 96% of his PATs, putting him in line to be back in the fold for 2023. Another base salary conversion can open up $2.2M of space for the Eagles.

Punter Arryn Siposs carries a minimum salary in 2023, with restricted free agency available thereafter, while long snapper Rick Lovato holds a non-guaranteed $1.2M cap & cash figure next in the final season of his contract.

Darrelle Revis

A first ballot football & business of football Hall of Famer, Revis still sits atop the cornerback career earnings mountain, amassing $124.2M in his 11 NFL seasons. The closest active player currently is Patrick Peterson, who sits at $106.75M.

Drafted #14 overall by the Jets out of Pitt, Revis signed a 6 year, $32M rookie contract in 2007. He would go on to play out half of that deal before a 4 year $46M extension was signed, 60% of which was guaranteed at signing. 3 years later the Jets traded Revis to Tampa Bay, who ripped up the deal for a 6 year, $96M blockbuster extension- $0 guaranteed. He’d play out 1 year, $16M of that deal before a release, moving on to New England at a 1 year, $12M clip, signaling his decline toward minimum salaries to finish out his career right? Nope. The Jets came back one offseason later with a 5 year, $70M free agent contract, paying him another $47M over the next 2 ½ seasons.

So when will Revis’ $124.2M be surpassed? The answer is very much TBD, but for now, Jalen Ramsey’s current contract would allow him to reach $137.1M after the 2025 season - if he remains on it that long.

Ronde Barber

Drafted by the Buccaneers in the 3rd round out of Virginia back in 1996, Barber played 16 NFL seasons - all in Tampa Bay. He signed 6 professional contracts, including a 3 year, $940,000 rookie deal, maxing out with a 5 year, $24 million contract in 2006. In total, Barber earned $46.125M for his efforts on the field, 54th most among cornerbacks in NFL history.

Zach Thomas

The #154 overall selection by the Dolphins back in 1996 reeled in $48.3M across 13 NFL seasons with the Dolphins, Cowboys, & Chiefs. His career began with a 3 year, $577,000 rookie deal in Miami that quickly escalated with back to back extensions worth $22.65M, & $33.75M respectively. Unfortunately, a 2007 head injury derailed his career, forcing the Dolphins to release him the following offseason. Thomas would pick up a few near minimum deals with Dallas & Kansas City, but never made it all the way back thereafter.

DeMarcus Ware

Ware entered the league as the #11 overall selection by the Cowboys back in 2005, signing a 5 year, $13M rookie contract to begin his career. Dallas handed him a healthy raise 4 years later to the tune of 6 years, $78 million, keeping him around for 5 seasons of it before he moved on to the Broncos on a 3 year, $30M free agent contract, his final career deal.

Ware earned $89.9M combined in 12 NFL seasons, which still ranks 5th all-time among Outside Linebackers.

Joe Thomas

Thomas kept things simple for us in his 11 season career. The #3 overall selection back in 2007 signed two professional contracts with the Cleveland Browns: a 5 year, $42.5M rookie deal, followed by a 7 year $80.5 million contract extension in 2011.

Those two contracts earned him $122.85M on the field, still #2 all-time among any offensive lineman to ever play the game (Trent Williams, $148.5M).