The Los Angeles Lakers didn’t get Kyrie Irving. Instead, the Lakers filled out three rotation spots in a single trade. The deal involves the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Utah Jazz, and features eight players, a protected first-round pick and three second-round picks.

Here are the details:

• Lakers acquire: D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
• Timberwolves acquire: Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, three second-round picks
• Jazz acquire: Russell Westbrook, Damian Jones, Juan Toscano-Anderson, first-round pick

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers searched for months for a taker in a deal involving Russell Westbrook. There were reports that they got close to a trade with the Utah Jazz before the season. Early-season rumors featured talks of a deal with the Indiana Pacers. This past week had the Lakers linked to the Brooklyn Nets for Kyrie Irving.

In the end, Los Angeles turned Westbrook and one of their two tradable first-round picks into a likely starting point guard, top reserve wing and top reserve big. And the Lakers sacrificed precious little flexibility beyond this season to do so.

If the Lakers wanted to go the 2023 cap space route, they can still create around $30 million in space. But that plan is probably out the window, as Los Angeles has rebuilt their depth with two pre-deadline deals. Malik Beasley and the previously acquired Rui Hachimura are long-term keepers. Jarred Vanderbilt should be too. We’ll see what happens with D’Angelo Russell, but he’s got a great chance to stick around too. Keep an eye on a potential two-year extension for Russell with the Lakers, worth up to $67.5 million.

Russell returns back to his first NBA home, but he’s a different player this time around. Russell is a confident shooter and scorer and a far better playmaker than when he left Los Angeles six years ago. He should eventually supplant Dennis Schroder in the Lakers starting lineup. That will give the Lakers a better shooter and a better secondary playmaker alongside LeBron James.

Beasley comes in as a pure sniper off the bench. He’s already knocked down 169 three-pointers this season. That’s almost twice as many as any current Laker. There’s some overlap with Beasley and Lonnie Walker IV, but they should be able to play some minutes together. Beasley does the vast majority of his work around the arc, while Walker likes to get into the midrange areas and into the paint.

In Vanderbilt, the Lakers get the third big they’ve been looking for all season. He’ll likely come off the bench, but it’s a good bet Vanderbilt will play plenty with James and Anthony Davis in bigger frontcourt alignments. Provided he plays enough, Vanderbilt should improve on LA’s middle-of-the-pack rebounding, while giving them some solid finishing and good passing from either big position.

By adding Russell, Beasley and Vanderbilt, along with Hachimura a couple of weeks ago, the Lakers have achieved the roster balance they’ve lacked the last two seasons. They’re probably still a little guard-heavy, but not like they were before. Darvin Ham can play a lot of different ways now, and that’s not something he could do before these trades. In addition, there should be enough depth to allow James and Davis to get the rest they need in games, and possibly even a full day off, if necessary.

Rob Pelinka increased the Lakers tax bill by a minimal amount in these two deals. Pelinka did a great job to get a top-4 protection on the 2027 first-round pick he’s sending to Utah. Reports are that if the Lakers somehow keep that pick, it converts into an immediate second-round pick. That allows the Lakers to still trade the 2029 pick if they find another deal they like down the line.

These moves don’t make the Lakers into immediate title contenders. That very much remains a stretch goal. But Los Angeles is now positioned to make a real run in the Play-In Tournament. If they can get to the playoffs, no top seed is going to want the “reward” of a seven-game series with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and a team with rebuilt depth.

We’ve been waiting for the Lakers to make that all-in push. Even if it doesn’t work out perfectly, you can’t say they didn’t try. And that’s worth something all by itself.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves portion of this trade is probably the most confusing. But if you dig a little deeper, this was a trade about stability and handing even more of the reins to Anthony Edwards.

Mike Conley isn’t as good as D’Angelo Russell, but he’s cheaper. Especially when you factor in that Russell needs a new contract after the season. More importantly, Conley helps as a culture-setter for a locker room that lost some of that when they traded away Patrick Beverley.

Conley will get the Wolves into their sets, and then he’ll happily float off-ball, while Edwards, and eventually Karl-Anthony Towns, pile up the usage. When Edwards sits, Chris Finch can go to the Conley-Rudy Gobert pick-and-roll sets that Quin Snyder used with regularity in Utah.

It’s likely Minnesota will end up keeping Conley next season and fully guaranteeing his deal for $24.4 million (it’s already guaranteed for $14.3 million). Then, when Town’s four-year, $224 million extension and Edwards’ likely five-year max deal kick in with the start of the 2024-25 season, Conley will be off the books.

The Timberwolves have played better in recent weeks. They’re above .500 now and still in range of getting into the top-6 in the Western Conference, if not making a run at homecourt advantage. This trade should help keep them stable when Towns returns. Before this trade, working Towns back into the lineup, with Edwards and Russell being the primary guys, could have been very messy. Conley will help make sure that’s an easy transition, by keeping Edwards the main focus, while making sure the big men get to eat too.

Utah Jazz

It took months longer than expected, but the Jazz have finally turned towards rebuilding. A far better-than-expected start had everyone questioning if Utah would even go down this road. But Danny Ainge isn’t one for half measures. Once he has a direction, he’s going to keep it.

The Jazz have extreme flexibility moving forward. They can create over $60 million in cap space this coming offseason. And they’ve added 15 additional draft picks through 2029 over the series of trades dating back to last summer. And that’s all while having new franchise cornerstones Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Ochai Agbaji, and maybe Collin Sexton, all signed to long-term deals.

Russell Westbrook is already reportedly working on a buyout agreement. Damian Jones is unlikely to have any sort of future with Utah either. Juan Toscano-Anderson is a nice flyer for a team that is trying to build a new culture. He should fit in nicely with the “go to work” style that Will Hardy is stressing with his young team.

It’s important to note that Ainge might not be done yet, either. Jordan Clarkson could still be traded. Or he could be extended. That’s a pretty fluid situation. Kelly Olynyk could fetch a minor asset or two. And if anyone is interested in picking up Rudy Gay or Talen Horton-Tucker, that would remove their player options from the mix for next season, and only increase Utah’s cap space potential.

The Jazz have already won far too many games to catch the Rockets, Spurs, Pistons or Hornets. But falling down the fifth-best NBA Draft Lottery odds is well within range. A high pick this year, solid talent in place on the roster, a great young coach, tons of cap space and a million extra draft picks. We’ve seen this movie before. And it ends with Danny Ainge building a multi-year title contender.

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is at 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 9. That means teams are facing their last window to make significant upgrades to their roster. But there’s one more transaction window after the trade deadline has come and gone.

The buyout market has become the trade deadline’s less glamorous cousin. The big moves are done at the deadline, but there are always a handful more deals to come through the end of February.

Following the February 9 trade deadline, the next big date to watch is March 1. Players waived after March 1 are not eligible to play in that season’s playoffs. Effectively, that’s the last day for playoff teams to add anyone who is on another team’s roster after the trade deadline.

The way this happens is that the player is waived by his current team. Upon clearing waivers, which the vast majority of players do, they become a free agent. In many of these cases, players and their former team will come to an agreement to buy out the remainder of their contract. This means the player gives back some portion of their guaranteed salary in order to become a free agent.

Sometimes these buyouts occur immediately on the heels of the trade deadline and the player clears waivers by the end of the weekend. For others, the buyout negotiations may run through the All-Star break and get completed before the end of the month. But in almost all cases, any significant buyouts will occur by March 1, to allow that player to remain playoff-eligible.

Here are some key players to keep an on eye on for the 2023 buyout market. In most cases, these are veterans on an expiring contract. Some may have some salary that goes into next season, and it’s very rare for a deal running more than two seasons to be bought out. In addition, most of these players are either out of their team’s rotation, or they are blocking minutes for a younger player to get into their team’s rotation. Or their teams are expected to make other changes before the deadline, which will push them even further to the backend of the roster.

Russell Westbrook (Jazz, PG, 34)

The Jazz are going to buy out Russell Westbrook. It's just a matter of how quickly and how much he'll give back. After that, Westbrook will find a new home fairly quickly. He's not the inevitable triple-double machine he once was, but Westbrook adapted to playing a complementary role quite well with the Lakers. He'll do the same for another contender for the playoff run. Maybe even one right down the hall from the Lakers in the building they share.

Patrick Beverley (Magic, PG, 34)

(UPDATE: Waived by Orlando, 2/12/23)

Beverley is highly likely to be bought out by the Orlando Magic, following a trade that sent Mo Bamba to Los Angeles Lakers. Look for Beverley to be highly sought after by contenders who need a defensive-minded guard. Because he's been with a third (and now fourth) team, since the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Beverley, don't be surprised if he lands back there eventually. 

Danny Green (Rockets, SG, 35)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Houston, 2/12/23)

Green worked so hard to get back with the Memphis Grizzlies, only to be dealt to the rebuilding Houston Rockets. Green will very likely get bought out. His size, shooting, defense and championship experience may make him the most prized player on the buyout market. Look for every contender to at least check in on Green. He'll be on a playoff roster for sure.

Reggie Jackson (Hornets, PG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Charlotte, 2/12/23)

Sounds like the Hornets are going to set Jackson free after acquiring him for Mason Plumlee. With so many guards already in the fold, that makes sense from the Hornets perspective. Jackson should catch on somewhere, but it might take a bit. Outside of his former team, the LA Clippers, no one seems to have a huge need at point guard right now. Jackson may be able to give it a couple of weeks and see which contender can offer him the biggest role.

Will Barton (Wizards, SG, 32)

Barton is owed $14,375,000 from Washington for this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he gave some of that back to catch on with a contender. Outside of a few games here and there over the last month, Barton is completely out of the Wizards rotation. If he’s not traded, Barton is a prime buyout candidate, and he’ll help a contender in need of bench scoring.

Khem Birch (Spurs, C, 30)

Birch hadn’t play in a game in over a month for Toronto, despite being active every night. That could change with the Spurs, who now have plenty of center minutes available. A buyout for the big man would be a bit tricky, because he’s owed $6.7 million this season and $6.9 million for next season. San Antonio took on some money into next season already, so eating a little more probably isn’t a big deal. But don’t expect it.

Dewayne Dedmon (Spurs, C, 33)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with San Antonio, 2/9/23)

The Spurs didn’t acquire Dedmon to play for them. It’s unlikely he’ll even report to the team. San Antonio did that deal to get a second-round pick for eating some salary. Dedmon probably won’t be a buyout, as much as he’ll be a straight waiver. But he’ll still be available for contenders looking for a backup center. The real question is how much Dedmon has left in the tank. The Heat haven’t had much size behind Bam Adebayo, and Dedmon couldn’t crack their rotation. He might be cooked.

Goran Dragic (Bulls, PG, 36)

Dragic is clearly nearing the end of a long career, but he can still play. Despite being caught up in an overstuffed backcourt, he’s given the Bulls solid minutes. If Chicago pivots to selling, and Dragic isn’t traded, there’s a good bet he’ll be waived to let the veteran guard join a contender.

Andre Drummond (Bulls, C, 29)

Sticking in Chicago, but in the frontcourt, we have Drummond. He’s in a weird spot. Sometimes he plays, sometimes he doesn’t. When he does play, Drummond is the same guy he’s always been: terrific rebounder, solid enough finisher and mostly a mess on defense. The one challenge for a buyout for Drummond? He’s owed $3.4 million on a player option for next season. Unless he really wants to hit free agency now, the Bulls would be on the hook for some additional dead money next year.

Bryn Forbes (Timberwolves, SG, 29)

Forbes rarely plays for the Wolves. They’ve got a bunch of guards in front of him, and they’re reportedly interested in adding another backcourt player before the deadline. If so, Forbes is a good candidate to be waived. Should that happen, a contender on the lookout for some shooting off their bench could bring Forbes in for the stretch run.

Justin Holiday (Rockets, SG, 33)

(UPDATE: Waived by Houston, 2/13/23)

It’s not really clear what the Rockets plans are, but they’re probably going to move on from Holiday. Holiday’s shooting has dipped and around the first of the year, he was replaced in the Hawks rotation by rookie A.J. Griffin. Let’s see what Houston’s appetite is for dead money, as they’re definitely moving from John Wall and probably Danny Green.

Serge Ibaka (Pacers, C, 33)

(Updated: Waived by Indiana, 2/22/23)

Ibaka wasn’t traded to the Pacers to play for them. They’ll likely straight waive the veteran big man. Whether or not a contender signs Ibaka is another question. He hasn’t played much in the last year or so, and he hasn’t looked very good when he has seen minutes.

Furkan Korkmaz (76ers, SG, 25)

Korkmaz has asked for a trade, and that’s far more likely than a buyout from the Sixers. But if Korkmaz was to sent to a team in a salary-dump deal, then the chances of a buyout go way up. He’s another guy with money into next season ($5.4 million), so that’s a factor here. If set free, Korkmaz could bring some shooting to a contender’s bench.

Alex Len (Kings, C, 29)

Len has barely played this season, but when we last saw him, he looked OK. The Kings recently took Kessler Edwards into their final roster spot. If Len’s expiring $3.9 million salary can’t be used as salary-matching in a deal, there’s a good chance he’ll get waived to open up a roster spot. He’s 29 years old and very much an old-school center, but could be worth a flyer for a contender with depth issues up front.

Kevin Love (Cavaliers, PF, 34)

This one is surprising, but there’s something going on with Love and the Cavs. He got hurt, but after getting healthy (or at least healthy-ish), Cleveland dropped him from their rotation. Love hasn’t shot it well this year, and he’s mostly a stretch 5 now, so he’s not returning anywhere near the value of his $28.9 million contract. But the Cavaliers got caught without viable frontcourt depth at the end of last season. They’ll probably just ride out Love’s deal. However, if the veteran wants to play, this is a situation to keep an eye on.

Nerlens Noel (Pistons, C, 28)

We’re at the annual “Nerlens Noel is available!” part of the NBA calendar. Noel isn’t a part of the Pistons present or their future. His $9.2 million contract for this season is probably just a bit to big to be tradable. That means Detroit will probably work a buyout with Noel and let him move on after they exhaust all trade options before Thursday’s deadline.

Kelly Olynyk (Jazz, PF, 31)

The Jazz are far more likely to trade Olynyk than they are to buy him out, but the second is somewhat of a possibility. With a pretty light guarantee next season, it’s possible that Olynyk decides he’d rather finish the year with a contender. His ability to space the floor, pass and play better-than-you-think defense would put him at the top of a lot of lists. But Olynyk’s $12.8 million salary is one Utah should be able to move without much worry if they want.

Derrick Rose (Knicks, PG ,34)

Rose hasn’t played in over a month. When we saw him earlier this season, he lacked even the limited post-injuries burst he once had and he was struggling to knock down jumpers. New York is reportedly working with Rose on finding him a new team. If that doesn’t happen, the roster spot might be more valuable to the Knicks than Rose on the bench. If there’s a buyout, some team will convince themselves to take one last shot on the 14-year veteran.

Terrence Ross (Magic, SG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived and agreed to buyout with Orlando, 2/12/23)

If we hadn’t already used the joke on Nerlens Noel, we’d use the “Terrence Ross is available!” joke here. We’re on trade deadline three of Ross being available, and it’s hard to see going 3-for-3 on deadlines passing without him being traded. Ross has rarely played since Orlando got healthy. But he can still provide points in a flurry off a bench. If the Magic don’t trade him, it’s hard to see why they wouldn’t buy him out and let Ross catch on with a contender.

John Wall (Rockets, PG, 32)

(UPDATE: Waived by Houston, 2/12/23)

The Rockets and Wall are definitely going to go their separate ways...again. When you’re already carrying over $40 million in dead money for a guy, what’s $6 million or so more? Unlike the first buyout, this one might not even end up with Wall giving any money back. Much like Derrick Rose, the real question is: How much can Wall even help a contender?

Thaddeus Young (Raptors, PF, 34)

The entire Toronto roster is in flux ahead of the deadline. No one but Scottie Barnes and maybe Pascal Siakam seem like safe bets to remain Raptors come Thursday afternoon. Young could be dealt, as he’s on a pseudo-expiring deal with only $1 million of his $8.1 million deal guaranteed for next season. If he’s not traded, Toronto could decide to move on and buy out Young and let him finish up the year with a team trying to make a playoff run.

With all due respect to Rui Hachimura and Noah Vonleh, we have our first big trade ahead of the 2023 NBA trade deadline. Roughly two days after requesting a trade from the Brooklyn Nets, Kyrie Irving is being sent to the Dallas Mavericks. Here are the particulars:

• Dallas acquires: Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris
• Brooklyn acquires: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, 2029 Dallas first-round pick, 2027 Dallas second-round pick, 2029 Dallas second-round pick (no protections on any of the picks)
• Brooklyn creates: $5.4 million Traded Player Exception (for Kyrie Irving) and $1.8 million Traded Player Exception (for Markieff Morris)

This is a massive deal with league-wide ramifications. Let’s break it down!

Dallas Mavericks

In a trade involving a superstar, it’s generally the team that ends up with said superstar who wins the trade. For Dallas, because that superstar is Kyrie Irving, there is a good deal of risk attached.

Irving is supremely talented. He’s right up there with the best scoring point guards in the league. Irving is also a more willing passer than he’s generally given credit for. And at the end of close games, Dallas now has a second option when teams load to Luka Doncic, which they’ve lacked without Jalen Brunson.

However, before we get to the off-court risks, there are some on-court worries for the Mavericks. Doncic is currently captaining arguably the most heliocentric offensive ship in the NBA. If Irving comes in and plays Mr. Spock to Doncic’s Captain Kirk, Dallas will be in good shape. If Irving and Doncic can’t mesh together, it’ll be like when an Android user joins the group text with a bunch of Apple users. It still works, but it’s a little more complicated, messier than anyone really likes and no one is really happy they’re in there.

The Dallas defense has now lost their best big wing defender. Lineups featuring Doncic, Irving and Christian Wood will have to be scoring monsters, because they’ll probably hand a lot of points back to the opponent. But it’s the dominant offensive pairing of Doncic and Irving that the Mavs are betting on making up for any defensive deficiencies.

Then you get to the off-court challenges…and there are many.

Sticking to the financials, the Mavericks are limited to offering Irving a two-year, roughly $80 million extension. That’s pretty far under his market value, even with question marks about his fit, age, injury history and off-court worries. The reason Dallas is limited in what they can offer now, is that for six months following a trade, a player can’t extend beyond the parameters allowed in an extend-and-trade deal, which are two years and 5% raises.

That means Irving will be a free agent this summer. The Mavs inherit his Bird rights, so they’ll be able to pay Irving whatever they can agree to. Irving and his camp will likely start out asking for a four-year, $210 million contract, if not the full five-year, $272 million maximum deal Irving will be eligible for.

It’s here where we should pause to say the Nets could have offered Irving something approaching that four-year number in an extension. Their reluctance to do so is what reportedly sparked Irving to request a trade in the first place. Brooklyn reportedly wanted some levels of protections in the deal that Irving found insulting.

The question facing Mavericks governor Mark Cuban and general manager Nico Harrison is not only how much they are willing to pay Irving, but how long they are willing to sign on to Irving for? On talent alone, Irving is worth a deal that averages north of $50 million per season. That true even as he’s turning 31 years old at the end of March.

But Irving has missed considerable time over the last eight seasons. Only in the 2016-17 season, his last with the Cleveland Cavaliers, has Irving played as many as 70 games. In four years with the Nets, he logged game counts of 20, 54, 29 and 40.

There’s a lengthy injury history with Irving that includes knee injuries and shoulder injuries. On top of that, he missed considerable games during the pandemic seasons due to non-compliance with vaccination requirements. And this season, Irving served an eight-game suspension after sharing a link to an antisemitic film.

Whether it’s injuries or other very avoidable off-court issues, Irving is a good bet to miss considerable time. That’s unlikely to improve as he approaches his mid-30s. That makes locking into a long-term, maximum contract something the Nets were unwilling to do. Will Dallas? That’s a question we’ll answer this summer…maybe.

Because Irving is now highly likely to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, he could just up and leave town. It’s not like Irving hasn’t previously changed his mind after stating how happy he was to be with a team…twice.

The Markieff Morris portion of this trade was likely a throw-in for Brooklyn to save some tax money. The Nets don’t have an open roster spot, so doing a 2-for-1 deal would have meant eating a guaranteed salary. Morris has fallen to the bottom of the Nets rotation, and he’s unlikely to have any real impact in a crowded Mavs frontcourt either.

Dallas took on about $28.7 million in additional taxes and penalties in this deal. If they re-sign Irving to anything approaching a max deal this summer, they’ll likely be a long-term taxpayer.

On last thing to note for the Mavericks side: If Irving were to leave, Dallas could create in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. If nothing else, they cleared up some multi-year salary obligations in the form of Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith. But we won’t pretend like those were exactly bad contracts worth giving up even a single first-round pick to shed. The Mavs could have worked around them easily enough.

Brooklyn Nets

For the Nets, they are now free of the headache that can come from being Kyrie Irving’s employer. It’s kind of like eating a ton of chicken wings. It’s awesome for part of the time, but then you have saucy and sticky fingers, maybe the dogs try to get into the bones, and you question if the awesome part was even worth it while fighting off some heartburn later.

Brooklyn had precious little leverage here. Irving made it clear on Friday afternoon that he was leaving this summer without an extension. He then made it clear by Sunday morning that he was prepared to never play another game for the Nets. Given his upcoming free agent status, and all the issues we laid out in the Mavericks portion of this analysis, Irving wasn’t exactly a sterling trade commodity.

Yet, the Nets did OK here. Dinwiddie gives them a veteran point guard with whom the organization has a ton of familiarity. Finney-Smith is another big wing defender and a pretty good off-ball shooter and cutter. And he’s on a terrific value contract.

Jacque Vaughn can now deploy defensive lineups that feature four of Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale, Nic Claxton, Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons, and maybe even all five for stretches of games. Good luck finding much scoring space against those groups.

On the court, Brooklyn should be ok. The ceiling is lower for sure. The Nets probably aren’t title contenders anymore, even if everything goes great. The offensive production just won’t be there against the best teams. But it’s questionable if the floor even dropped an inch, given Irving’s general unreliability.

The big question for the Nets: What does Kevin Durant want to do now? Does he reissue his trade request from the summertime? Is he content to play things out and see what Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks does next? There are already reports that the Phoenix Suns are prepared to make another run at Durant, should become available via trade. And it’s a good bet Phoenix isn’t the only team having the “What’s our best offer for KD?” conversation in NBA front offices today.

Brooklyn saved a considerable chunk of change in this trade. They’ll see their tax-plus-penalties bill drop by about $26.5 million. That’s nothing to sneeze at for a team that has carried a considerable salary and tax outlay the last few seasons.

On top of that, the Nets did really well to get such a late pick from the Mavericks. In 2029, Dallas could be in Year 2 or 3 of a post-Luka Doncic rebuild. Who knows what the Mavs will look like then? And the two seconds are kind of sprinkles on top of a good-but-not-great sundae.

The Rest of the NBA

This trade has a pretty wide fallout radius. The Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns were all reportedly interested in trading for Kyrie Irving. The Lakers were even getting some fairly strong public pressure put on them from LeBron James to get a deal done. And reports early on Sunday were that the Clippers had sent the Nets a “strong offer”.

Now, those teams have to pivot. The Lakers need to upgrade their depth and, as they have since the summer, are shopping Russell Westbrook and one or both of their tradable first-round picks. They’ll do something beyond just the Rui Hachimura deal.

The Clippers remain on the hunt for a point guard. Fred VanVleet? Kyle Lowry? Mike Conley? LA seems like a good bet to come away with someone. They just won’t have the star upside of Irving.

The Suns are already known to be ready to talk Kevin Durant trades again. Failing that, they’ll move Jae Crowder and who know what else to retool their roster.

As for the 25 NBA teams we didn’t mention yet, the market is now semi-set. Because the Nets were in a tough spot with Irving, don’t expect the Toronto Raptors to come off the big asking price they’ve set for OG Anunoby, for example. Masai Ujiri will sit back and calmly explain he’s still got the leverage, whereas Sean Marks had little.

But things should start to get moving now. One major domino, if an unexpected one, has fallen. There are some others that are wobbling and ready to start a chain reaction around the league. There’s no overwhelming favorite to win the title. That means Dallas and Brooklyn may have done a deal that kicks off an arms race that won’t culminate until 3:00 PM Eastern on Thursday, February 9 when the NBA trade deadline is in the rearview mirror and rosters are set for the stretch run. Well…until buyout season wraps up a few weeks later!

The NBA is in a weird place  with less than two weeks or so out from the trade deadline on February 9. Only five teams (the Orlando Magic joined this list over the weekend) teams in the entire league are more than three games out of a spot in the Play-In Tournament. In the Western Conference, only the Houston Rockets and San Antonio spurs have no realistic shot at making the postseason.

That’s caused the trade market to be a bit jammed up. There just aren’t a lot of clearcut sellers at the moment.

Instead of presenting our annual look at who are Buyers (teams looking to add for a playoff push), Sellers (teams planning for the future), Either (teams who could buy or could sell) or Neither (teams who are likely to sit out the deadline entirely), we’re adding a twist. We’ll tell you which camp each stands in for now. (Spoiler: There are a lot of buyers!) But we’re also going to tell you what camp each team should be standing in.

Dallas Mavericks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavs are looking for help around Luka Doncic. No, it wasn’t prompted by a mural, but it’s known that Dallas is looking to find the right mix to put around Doncic.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Mavericks should be buying, but they have to be careful here. They’ve cleared out some of their long-term onerous salary. If they miss and take on more bad money, it’s going to get really difficult to get the right guys in the lineup with Doncic.

Denver Nuggets

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Denver probably won’t do a whole lot. They’re talking Bones Hyland deals. The Nuggets are looking to add more depth. But Denver is already $10.5 million over the tax, and they’ve got decent depth. Don’t look for much here.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Nuggets should be soft buyers. If they can flip Hyland and something (trading picks is hard because Denver has future obligations already) for a veteran to come off the bench, that’s fine. But Denver’s top-eight is really solid already. Given their limited resources, it’s going to be hard to get much of an upgrade.

Golden State Warriors

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Outside of the Andrew Wiggins-D’Angelo Russell swap, which came when the Warriors were in a retooling season, Golden State doesn’t really do in-season trades. They seem to be reluctant to move off anyone, even the youngsters who haven’t panned out. Look for the champs to add on the buyout market instead of via trade.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Golden State should be buying. The grand plan of young core stepping in as the veteran core ages out looks pretty shaky now. Instead, the Warriors should be maximizing what they have around their vets for another deep playoff run or two. James Wiseman (and maybe Moses Moody) isn’t going to get the development minutes he needs in the Bay Area. It’s time to move him for win-now help.

Houston Rockets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Houston is a seller, but one without a lot to sell. They’re looking to move Eric Gordon for the second or third deadline in a row. Beyond that, this team is mostly made of kids on their rookie scale deals. It’s hard to see any of them going anywhere.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Houston has been rumored to be in on John Collins. If the idea is to poach him for next-to-nothing, then it makes sense. But giving real value for Collins with the Rockets still rebuilding would be a bad move. Trade Gordon and keep it moving with the kids.

LA Clippers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clippers are looking for a point guard and a backup center. They’ve been linked to Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley and Fred VanVleet. All would be expensive additions, but big upgrades. As LA has shown in the past, they won’t let the former stand in the way of the latter.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Clips have played well over a couple of weeks span now. They’ve shown when they care that they’re contenders. That’s enough to make it worth taking on even more in salary and tax penalties. With a bunch of midrange salaries to trade, the bet here is that LA makes at least one splashy addition before the deadline.

Los Angeles Lakers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Lakers aren’t done after the Rui Hachimura trade. They’re still looking to flesh out their rotation, while rebalancing some guard depth for wings with size. Just don’t expect a Russell Westbrook deal. That ship seems to have sailed, assuming it was ever seaworthy to begin with.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Los Angeles has shown enough when healthy that it’s worth buying. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still those guys to build around. Given the Pelicans control the Lakers pick, there’s no reason to do anything but to be as good as possible. The question remains: Will Rob Pelinka move either or both of the tradable first-round picks?

Memphis Grizzlies

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Memphis is sitting in a somewhat unique spot. They are very good, contenders even, but feel one or two guys short. The Grizzlies also are a whopping $28.9 million under the tax line. They’re talking trades, but as always, Memphis is shy about moving on from their own drafted players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Grizzlies have to get over moving their own players and go get some immediate rotation upgrades. Yes, they are young, but title contention windows snap shut as quickly as they open. Memphis is there right now. They are the best draft-and-develop team in the NBA, but it’s time to turn some of that into guys who can take them to the next level this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Minnesota is in a bit of a weird place. They are showing signs of being good, but aren’t quite there yet. They’re reportedly at least somewhat open to moving D’Angelo Russell, but need a point guard back. That sort of position-for-same-position trade is pretty rare, unless you’re swapping old for young. Buzz has picked up around Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid in recent weeks too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

It’s probably best for the Wolves to just be patient. Their big “addition” will be Karl-Anthony Towns. A trade that sends Russell away for another starting-level point guard seems unlikely. Minnesota is showing signs of figuring things out while waiting Towns return. Ride that out and make bigger moves this summer, if necessary.

New Orleans Pelicans

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Pelicans are looking (they’ve been linked to John Collins), but it seems almost like they are being opportunistic. And that’s fine. When healthy, this team has all the ingredients to make a decent playoff run.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

New Orleans shouldn’t go crazy…yet. They haven’t even seen this team as it was ideally built. Unless some sort of no-brainer deal lands at their feet, the Pels can afford to let things play out a bit. This summer feels like the big-move period vs any time in the next week or so.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Approach at the deadline: Neither

OKC is having a far better season than anyone could have ever expected. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star and the role players are developing very quickly around him. But the Thunder aren’t ready to go all-in just yet. They’re poking around, but nothing serious seems on the table for Oklahoma City.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

The Thunder are only $7.9 million under the tax line. This isn’t like last year when Sam Presti had a mountain of cap space to use. If they can add some quality size that’s signed long-term, and the cost isn’t too great, jump on that. Beyond that, it’s best for OKC to keep their flexibility into the summer.

Phoenix Suns

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Suns are looking to add. With the new ownership group set to take over before the deadline, James Jones seems to have the greenlight to add some salary. That has the Suns in on point guards (Chris Paul insurance?) and power forwards (John Collins prime among them).

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

It’s been a while since Phoenix has really geared up at the deadline, but we’re seeing things change in a major way now. Keep an eye on Jae Crowder and Dario Saric. That’s over $19 million in expiring salary. If you add Cameron Payne, and his partially guaranteed for 2023-24 deal to that mix, you’re up over $25 million in mostly-expiring salary. That’s enough to get in the mix for anyone who becomes available. The time is now for the Suns to make a big swing.

Portland Trail Blazers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

All reports are that Portland is looking to add talent to their roster at the deadline. Josh Hart and Jusuf Nurkic are available, and the Blazers have some smaller midrange salaries they could deal too. They want to keep building around Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant, who they hope to extend or re-sign.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

It feels like the Trail Blazers are setting themselves up to sit in the middle for a while. Lillard is awesome, but the rest of the roster is full of good-but-not-great players. And there aren’t enough of those players that Portland has overwhelming depth either. In what is looking like a great seller’s market, the Blazers could reset on the fly, while also improving their cap flexibility and lottery odds. That’s an opportunity that might not exist next year.

Sacramento Kings

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

It seems like Sacramento is sort of poking around to improve around the edges of their rotation. They could use another wing and a little more shooting.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Kings should be thinking bigger. They can put together over $20 million in salary for non-rotation players to go make a deal. Of that group, only Richaun Holmes has money past this season. That’s enough to get Sacramento in the mix to land a big upgrade. With over $17 million to play with under the tax line, the focus should be on adding whoever the best available wing is. It would also give the Kings a bit of insurance should Harrison Barnes leave this summer.

San Antonio Spurs

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

For years, the Spurs section was the easiest to write. They never did anything at the trade deadline. They’ve been more active lately, as they’ve leaned into a rebuild. San Antonio is listening and sorting through offers for Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson and Doug McDermott.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Poeltl isn’t a must-trade for the Spurs. He could still be re-signed to a fair contract this summer, and San Antonio doesn’t have a center ready to replace him with. That said, if a team blows them away with an offer, Poeltl shouldn’t be untouchable. Richardson and McDermott should both be dealt. Richardson is probably gone after the season, and McDermott is on a fair-value deal given the shooting he can provide. All three vets can fill needs for contenders. The Spurs should be in a great spot to get a nice return here.

Utah Jazz

Approach at the deadline: Either

Danny Ainge is doing his thing with the Jazz. He made some teardown moves over the summer, but got such good returns that Utah hasn’t bottomed out. Now, Ainge is in the market to take this from a full rebuild to a quick flip. That’s exactly how he handled it with the Celtics when they got better than expected, quicker than was expected.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Without getting crazy, Utah should still be in seller mode. In a market devoid of sellers, players like Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt and even Rudy Gay, could all net Ainge even more picks and young players to build back up with. That said, if there’s a chance to move those vets for younger vets who fit long-term around Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler (the new core pieces), the Jazz can’t go wrong there either. That’s why a guy like John Collins could make sense, even if Utah moves off a few vets too.

The NBA is in a weird place two weeks or so out from the trade deadline on February 9. Only four teams in the entire league are more than three games out of a spot in the Play-In Tournament. In the Eastern Conference, only the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons have no realistic shot at making the postseason.

That’s caused the trade market to be a bit jammed up. There just aren’t a lot of clearcut sellers at the moment.

Instead of presenting our annual look at who are Buyers (teams looking to add for a playoff push), Sellers (teams planning for the future), Either (teams who could buy or could sell) or Neither (teams who are likely to sit out the deadline entirely), we’re adding a twist. We’ll tell you which camp each stands in for now. (Spoiler: There are a lot of buyers!) But we’re also going to tell you what camp each team should be standing in.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Either 

The Hawks are could move some guys (John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Justin Holiday), but they won’t tear things down. If they trade any of their veterans, Atlanta will be looking to reset around a core of Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

The Hawks have it right. There’s too much talent to blow it up entirely. But can you finally trade John Collins if you aren’t going to appreciate what you have?

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Boston might dump another contract (Justin Jackson is the likely choice) to save some against the luxury tax. Major trades are probably out though. Look for the Celtics to do their work in the buyout market.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Celtics don’t need to go crazy. Their top-eight is any good as any in the NBA. But they could use some reinforcements for the rest of the regular season. Top of the list should be a wing to lessen the minutes burden for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Brooklyn is looking to upgrade. They could use another big to play behind and/or next to Nic Claxton (who is having an outstanding season) or one more guard, ideally one with some size.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Buying is right for the Nets. They’re a title contender and this isn’t going to be a super long window of contention either. Brooklyn should maximize what they can before the next circus comes along.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers 

We get to one of the assured sellers in the East. The Hornets have a lot of vets they are looking to move (Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, Kelly Oubre Jr.), but a couple might be tough sells.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte is trying. Moving Hayward (contract) and Oubre (injury) probably isn’t happening. But someone might want Terry Rozier for guard depth, and Mason Plumlee is a gettable center for any contender’s frontcourt depth. Cleaning up the books and opening up time for their kids and any kids they acquire is the way forward. Also: don’t trade Jalen McDaniels. He’s good and young enough to be a keeper on a new deal.

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Either

Chicago might make some deals, but they aren’t going to tear things down fully. They owe a top-four protected pick to Orlando, so they don’t want to really bottom out. Because of that, they might make rebalancing trades vs selling off players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. Where is this team going with this core this year and next? The Play-In Tournament? The sixth seed? It all sort of fell apart quickly after a promising start, but why delay the inevitable? And that pick is a sunk cost. Maybe you just bad enough that the extra few ping pong balls move you up in the lottery and you keep it. Also: if you aren’t re-signing Coby White this summer, it’s time to move him. There are too many guards in Chicago as is.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs are looking for wings. They have basically everything else. One more quality wing would take this team from “frisky in the first round” to “Cleveland could make the conference finals”. And, you know what? They might be the latter anyway.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Cleveland is dangling Caris LeVert’s expiring $18.8 million deal to see what it can get them. That’s the right idea, but to make a real move, Cleveland may need to add Isaac Okoro into that offer. They just don’t have the draft picks to plus up any offers for a while.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Detroit is best termed as an “opportunistic seller”. The Pistons don’t feel pressure to move Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks, but if they get the right offer, they’ll do it. And right now, in a seller’s market, that right offer is going to have to be pretty big.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Pistons are thinking of things the right way, but they should be a big more aggressive as we approach the deadline. It might make sense to hang onto Bogdanovic, especially if they think they can be a good team next year. Burks is a different story. If they get even a decent offer, move him along and fill that spot in free agency with cap space in the summer. And Nerlens Noel is as good as gone, either via trade or waiver after the deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Pacers are in a fun spot. They’re better than expected, so they could reasonably add without a bunch of questions as to why they are buying. They also aren’t so good that selling off some vets would be crazy.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

With nearly $28 million in cap space, Indiana should be very active at the deadline. If they can pick off a player or two to give them a bit more size and balance to their roster, they should do it. And if someone wants to drastically overpay for Myles Turner and/or Buddy Hield, that should be on the table too. Oh, and it’s an NBA rule that Daniel Theis has to be traded in every trade window, right?

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Heat don’t really have the assets, nor the flexibility, to be big-time buyers. They’ll be active. And never count out the Miami front office from getting really creative. But it’s hard to see how they do much.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Miami is in a tough spot next year with their roster. Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are pending unrestricted free agents. Losing both would be killer for the Heat’s depth. Keeping both is going to add to what is already a wildly expensive team. The solution: Why not at least explore the trade market for Kyle Lowry? His play has slipped to the point where his contract looks questionable at least, it not bad. But if a would-be contender wants a veteran floor leader, that could give the Heat an out and a chance to reset things a bit this summer.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers 

The Bucks are looking to round out their rotation. They’ve been in on Jae Crowder since his trade request was made. They’ve also looked at ways to add Eric Gordon. Essentially, if you’re trading a wing that can defend, hit shots, or both (in an ideal world) and that wing makes under $20 million, Milwaukee wants to talk.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Buying is what the Bucks should be doing. They are right there in title contention. Go after it. This roster seems pretty creaky for its long-term viability. Now is the time to go all-in. Keep an eye on the frontcourt too, just in case the Bobby Portis injury is more worrisome than it appears.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Either

New York is in a weird spot. Ideally, they’d add some guys who can help prop up a playoff run. They really want to get into the top-six and avoid the Play-In Tournament. But the Knicks also have some vets who are very, very available.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Knicks need to be offering packages of their veterans, along with draft picks, to find upgrades. One more wing and another good backup guard and this rotation would be really fleshed out. And New York has the ability to get it done, both in terms of tradable contracts and draft picks to send out in trade.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Magic might move Mo Bamba, Terrence Ross (last vet standing!) and maybe Gary Harris. Bamba and Ross feel like they are on borrowed time, and Harris is probably on the lower-end of the guard pecking order. But don’t be surprised if the Magic just ride things out to some extent and try to make their big moves this summer.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Orlando has to move Bamba and Ross, at the very least. Neither are regular rotation players. The returns won’t be huge, but a few more second-rounders are better than nothing for guys who won’t be back with the Magic next season. Harris is a harder call. He plays a real role, and team likes him helping to lead a young backcourt. But Orlando has to at least listen. Also, if someone got crazy about Jonathan Isaac, now that he’s back, that’s worth listening on too. Everyone else should take something really enticing to even start to get the Magic thinking about it.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Daryl Morey is going to try to thread a difficult needle at the deadline: Add to the roster, while also shedding enough salary to get out of the tax. Don’t count him out. But no matter what, he’ll tinker around the edges of his rotation.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Like the Celtics, Nets and Bucks, the Sixers are a title contender. They don’t need a lot. They should be pushing to add a big behind Joel Embiid (just in case) and a wing shooter that can hold up defensively. There’s a good chance what we get is a salary-dump to avoid the tax, then some work on the buyout market.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Raptors are the ultimate wildcard at the deadline. Masai Ujiri might wake up one morning over the next couple of weeks and decide to blow it up. He might also look at his team and make a move to bolster a Play-In run and then a frisky first round series.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto should sell, but within reason. They don’t need to trade everyone. But it’s time to decide if Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are going to be around past this season. If so, what’s the walk-away number? Is a frontcourt of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes really viable? If not, do you need a marquee big? And, for the love of all that is basketball holy, please find a way to trade at least one or two of the five big men who see at least semi-regular playing time off the bench.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Washington seems destined to never be out of Play-In range. Never higher than seventh in the East, but never lower than 12th. Always around .500. Never really good, but never really bad either. And that’s why they’ll probably sit it out at the deadline. They already moved Rui Hachimura, and that’ll probably be it. They’ll likely overpay to keep Kyle Kuzma this summer, and Kristaps Porzingis either this summer or next, and that should keep both off the trade market.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Wizards are just like the Bulls, as far as having real questions about their ceiling. The Wizards should also be a flashing red warning beacon for the Raptors and what they could become. But unlike Chicago and Toronto, who could look very different in a year or two, Washington seems to really want to keep their core in place. Ideally, they’d at least listen on Kuzma and Porzingis. Just to see what’s out there before they lock in, but there are no signs that’s in play. At the very least Will Barton (and maybe Kendrick Nunn too) won’t be on this roster much past the deadline. If he’s not traded, he’ll be bought out.

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is about two weeks away.  So far, we’ve seen two in-season trades. The Boston Celtics salary-dumped Noah Vonleh on the San Antonio Spurs. And, in a more meaningful move, the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Rui Hachimura from the Washington Wizards for Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit two weeks from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.6 million (Maurice Harkless), $3.6 million (Kevin Huerter)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed extra first-round pick from Sacramento. Hawks have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: John Collins. He’s been in rumors forever. Feels like something might actually got done this time.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $23.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.9 million (Dennis Schroder), $3.2 million (Danilo Gallinari Disabled Player Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Celtics owe this year’s first-rounder to the Pacers. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028. Boston has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Justin Jackson. Nothing exciting here beyond a tax-savings move. It’s far more likely Boston is active on the buyout marker than the trade market.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $34.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $2.5 million (James Harden)

Draft Pick Situation: Brooklyn is about neutral in first-round picks. They owe a couple of their own to Houston, but they have a couple coming from Philadelphia. The Nets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Patty Mills. He’s no longer in the Nets rotation and his $6.5 million for this year is a nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected first-rounder to the Spurs, but have a protected first-rounder coming from Denver. Charlotte has at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mason Plumlee. This would have been Kelly Oubre Jr., but his recent hand surgery has him in a bit of flux. If Charlotte pivots towards development, and they should, Mark Williams will get the bulk of the center minutes. That makes Plumlee very available.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe protected first-round picks to Orlando and San Antonio in coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2029. The Bulls also have one truly tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached, including a pending forfeit from tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Coby White. If Chicago makes any sort of upgrade to their rotation, it’s likely White will be traded. He’s a pending restricted free agent and the Bulls have a bunch of other guards.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Ochai Agbaji)

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes four future first-round picks to the Pacers (one) and Jazz (three), as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The Cavs have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Caris LeVert. It’s unlikely Cleveland does any major moves at the deadline, but if they do, LeVert has to be involved. The Cavs have guys on the roster who can fill what he does and his $18.8 million expiring contract is a very nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $15.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a first to New York that should convey this season. They are free to trade all of their other first-rounders. The Mavs have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dwight Powell. There isn’t a great candidate for Dallas. But Powell would likely be the one to move if the Mavericks made a big move.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.5 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.1 million (Monte Morris), $3.5 million (JaMychal Green)

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Charlotte, Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to trade a first-round pick at this deadline. The Nuggets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Ish Smith. This would be a move simply to lessen the Nuggets tax bill, or Smith could go to yet another team in a swap of similar salaries.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $627 thousand under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a heavily protected first to New York that may not convey for at least a couple of seasons. The Pistons have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alec Burks. The Pistons have set a high price for Bojan Bogdanovic. Teams will probably just wait and see if Nerlens Noel is bought out. That leaves Burks as an attainable mid-range players for other teams.

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $40.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Warriors owe one protected first-round pick to the Grizzlies. Golden State has at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: James Wiseman. This is strictly a hunch. If the Warriors are going to bolster their bench in any kind of meaningful way, Wiseman would be the guy to go the other way in a trade.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $14.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Christian Wood)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston has a couple of extra first-rounders coming from Brooklyn and Miami. They also owe two protected picks to Oklahoma City, and there are swap rights in the mix too. The Rockets should have at least at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Eric Gordon. Gordon is the only veteran of note on the Rockets roster. Most of the other players are on rookie scale contracts and not going anywhere.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.8 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Indiana will get additional 2023 first-round picks from Boston and Cleveland. The Pacers also have all of their own first-round picks. The Pacers have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Daniel Theis. It doesn’t seem very likely that Indiana is trading Myles Turner or Buddy Hield, despite years and months of rumors respectively. Theis seems to get moved during every trade window lately. If the Pacers are sending anyone out, it’ll probably be him.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $41.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.7 million (Serge Ibaka)

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers owe two more first-round picks to the Thunder, plus two years of swap rights. LA has six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Covington. Adding salary is no obstacle for the Clippers. They’ve got the greenlight to keep adding to an already giant tax bill. Covington is only a sometimes rotation player. If his $12.3 million salary can get LA an upgrade, they’ll do it.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $20.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans can swap for the Lakers pick this year. And Los Angeles owes New Orleans first in either 2024 or 2025, pending a Pelicans potential deferment. That leaves the Lakers with their 2027 and 2029 firsts as tradable. Los Angeles has four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Damian Jones. This isn’t as exciting or as fun as a huge Russell Westbrook trade, but that seems unlike. Instead, Jones could be moved in a salary-dump which would save some on the tax bill and also eliminate his player option for next season as a potential issue for the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks and one extra pick coming from the Warriors. Memphis has nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Danny Green. It’s unlikely the Grizzlies will do much at the deadline, even if they should. They’re really close to being the best team in the West and one more player could push them over. But Memphis likes to keep their own guys. If they do make a move, it’ll probably involve Green.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $163 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat owe one first to the Thunder, but own all of their other first-round picks. The Heat have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon has been replaced by Orlando Robinson in the rotation. Omer Yurtseven could return and bump Dedmon to fourth on the center depth chart. His $4.7 million could get moved to bring in help, or to clear some needed breathing room under the tax line.

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.4 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks only own two of their own future first-round picks. The others are owed to some combination of the Rockets, Pelicans and Knicks, plus the Pels own swap rights on two other years too. Milwaukee has eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Serge Ibaka. This one is cheating a bit, as the Bucks and Ibaka already agreed to find him a new home. If not Ibaka, keep an eye on Jordan Nwora or George Hill. They could both be nice pieces of salary-matching in a deal.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.1 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.4 million (Jarred Vanderbilt)

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah four future first-round picks, only one of which is protected. Because of the Stepien Rule, the Wolves can’t deal another first. The Timberwolves have three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bryn Forbes. Super boring, but the Wolves don’t project to do anything big at the deadline. All of their meaningful salaries belong to rotation players. Minnesota is likely to focus on getting healthy and treating that as their “acquisitions”.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own three extra first-rounders courtesy of the Lakers and Bucks. They also have swap rights on three years with those two teams too. New Orleans has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Willy Hernangomez. When the Pelicans are healthy (or assuming they ever are), Hernangomez is the fifth big in their rotation. New Orleans should be able to pick up another second-rounder if they deal Hernangomez to a big-needy team.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Knicks first-round pick situation is complicated. They have all of their first-rounders moving forward. They have additional picks coming from Dallas, Detroit, Washington, and potentially Milwaukee, moving forward. Those picks all have various protections attached, but all should eventually convey to New York. The Knicks have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cam Reddish. The contract is small enough to moved easily. New York is apparently asking only for a second-rounder or two in the deal. Reddish will likely get moved before the deadline.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $10.2 million (Derrick Favors), $4.2 million (Ty Jerome)

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has at least eight extra first-round picks headed their way from a combination of the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, Heat, 76ers and Nuggets. In addition, the Thunder have at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Darius Bazley. It’s unlikely the Thunder will do much at the deadline. They aren’t sitting on cap space anymore. And OKC can’t realistically add any more draft picks. If they want to avoid any messiness with Bazley in restricted free agency, the Thunder might move him along to another team.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have extra firsts coming from the Bulls and the Nuggets, in addition to all of their own first-round picks. Orlando has at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mo Bamba or Terrence Ross. Is this finally the year Ross gets traded? What about Bamba who has lost all of his minutes in a healthy, and crowded, frontcourt? Don’t be surprised if both are moved by the deadline, as Orlando consolidates things a bit on their roster.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers have four of their own first-round picks over the next seven years, with three picks owed to a combination of the Nets, Thunder and possibly Jazz or Rockets. In the second round, Philadelphia owns only two picks that they will definitely get. This partially from forfeiting second-round picks in 2023 and 2024 due to tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jaden Springer. If the 76ers can move Springer and take no salary back, they’ll get themselves clear of the tax. That’s likely to be a goal heading into the trade deadline.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $16.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix is the only team in the NBA that owns all of their own first and second round picks, and doesn’t have any extra picks in either round.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jae Crowder. Even if it’s for a very minor return, Phoenix has to move on from Crowder. They’ll likely get something of value, as he can help several contenders, but it’s a surety that Crowder will be moved before the deadline. Keep an eye on Dario Saric here too.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $67 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Robert Covington), $3.3 million (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028, but the pick should convey before then. The Blazers have four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Hart. It’s probably more likely Portland stands pat, but Hart could be part of a deal to bring a bit more size to the roster. He’s also on a very tradable contract.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $17.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4 million (Tyrese Haliburton)

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks, but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. Sacramento has between nine and 11 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alex Len. Sacramento has a lot of potentials for this spot. The Kings should be looking to aggregate together a bunch of salaries of non-rotation players. That could deliver a rotation player who makes upwards of $20 million this season. That’s the way to go all-in on a playoff push.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.9 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs have five extra picks coming their way from the Hawks, Hornets and Bulls. They also own all of their own first-rounders moving forward. San Antonio has 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Richardson. Nope, not Jakob Poeltl. There seems to be real interest in re-signing the big man, so that leaves the veteran guard on the block. Richardson could help a lot of contenders and it would free up some minutes in a semi-crowded Spurs backcourt.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.3 million (Goran Dragic)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owns all of their own first-round picks with no extras coming in. The Raptors own all of their own second-rounders, minus a 2024 second-round pick they owe to Memphis.

Most Likely to be Traded: Gary Trent Jr. Maybe Toronto starts a major remodeling of their roster, but that seems more like a summer project. If they wait, and Trent isn’t a part of the future plans, expect the Raptors to get something of value before losing Trent for nothing this summer.

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.8 million (Joe Ingles), $9.6 million (Rudy Gobert), $4.9 million (Bojan Bogdanovic)

Draft Pick Situation: Utah owes one protected pick to Oklahoma City. Beyond that, the Jazz have eight additional first-rounders coming their way, mostly from the Cavaliers and Timberwolves. Utah has three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Malik Beasley. This is really a take-your-pick of any number of veterans on the Jazz roster. Beasley seems likely to fetch a solid enough return, while having a somewhat shaky spot moving forward that Utah could move on from him.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.3 million (Rui Hachimura), $3.9 million (Aaron Holiday)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. Washington has at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Will Barton. The veteran wing has fallen out of the Wizards rotation. He could still help a number of contenders who need a bench scorer. If he’s not traded, Barton could also work a buyout. Keep an eye on Kendrick Nunn as a guy who might get re-flipped after arriving in the Rui Hachimura trade.

The Los Angeles Lakers haven’t been mentioned in every trade rumor this season, but it sure seems that way. Now, the Lakers are finally poised to push a deal across the finish line.

The Lakers will reportedly send Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Rui Hachimura. The deal is reportedly on course to be completed later in the day on Monday.

This isn’t the blockbuster that many were waiting on for the Lakers, but it’s still a good move that will help them immediately. That said, even this potentially small of a move can have major ramifications beyond just the final few months of the 2022-23 season.

Los Angeles Lakers

On the basketball side, Rui Hachimura is a great fit for Los Angeles. The Lakers only healthy forward with real size was LeBron James. He’s been taxed to some degree by having to play almost all of his minutes at power forward this season. Hachimura will give the Lakers some additional size in the frontcourt, and he can play alongside both James and Anthony Davis (when the latter gets healthy) in lineups that will be fairly sizable across the frontline.

On offense, Hachimura has settled into a complementary scoring role. He’s able to overpower smaller defenders, while using his quickness against bigger players. Hachimura has also developed a fairly reliable jumper over the years. He’s not much of a passer, but the Lakers should have covered. One continuing worrisome trend is that Hachimura is an inconsistent scorer. Just this past week, he’s gone for 16 points, 0 points and 30 points over a three-game stretch.

On defense, Hachimura doesn’t offer a ton. He’s best when guarding fours, but he can do ok against slower threes. He’s a solid enough rebounder, as his rebounding rates have generally remained consistent when adjusted for playing time. He’s not fixing any defensive issues the Lakers may have, minus some on the glass, but he’s also not taking anything off the table from their current mini-sized lineups either.

Essentially, Hachimura is being added as a flyer to bring a little size to the Lakers, along with some offensive punch to the frontcourt. Given the reasonable cost to acquire him, this is a very low-risk gamble by Los Angeles.

Kendrick Nunn was a consistent rotation player, but he’s part of a guard mix for the Lakers that runs five-deep beyond him when healthy. Swapping Nunn for Hachimura rebalances the rotation and should allow Darvin Ham to avoid relying on so many three- and sometimes four-guard lineups.

It’s on the cap sheet where this deal starts to get really interesting. Prior to this trade, the Lakers were looking at somewhere in the range of $30 to $35 million in cap space this summer. Reports are that LA wants to sign Hachimura to a new deal this summer, when the forward will be eligible for restricted free agency.

In order to do so, and to avoid another team swooping in, the Lakers will have to retain Hachimura’s $18.8 million cap hold. That hold, combined with the likely $2.2 million cap hold for pending restricted free agent Austin Reaves, will be enough to keep Los Angeles over the cap this summer.

That may seem confusing, but here’s how it works: The Lakers were projected to be at roughly $33 million in space before this deal. That was by wiping the books clean of all but the guaranteed salaries of James, Davis and Max Christie, while retaining a cap hold for Austin Reaves.

Now, you add $18.8 million for Hachimura and that space reduces to roughly $14 to $15 million. At that point, that space is less than the combined amount of the Non-Taxpayer Midlevel Exception and the Bi-Annual Exception. Add those against the space, and you have Los Angeles acting as an over-the-cap team in July.

But here’s how Rob Pelinka and the front office can still do some work in free agency beyond just using exceptions. Barring the most incredible final 30-game run the NBA has ever seen, Hachimura isn’t going to be anywhere near $18.8 million in Year 1 salary on his new deal. If the Lakers could sign him to a reasonable new deal, they could still have cap space to play with. (And it will be a new contract and not an extension. As he is wrapping up his rookie scale contract, Hachimura is no longer extension-eligible). Something around $10 million feels fair for Hachimura in Year 1 salary.

If the Lakers sign Hachimura to a deal that includes $10 million in Year 1 salary, they could then wipe away all the rest of their cap holds, minus Reaves’ $2.2 million. In that case, the Lakers would still have roughly $23.5 million to work with this summer, in addition to the $5.8 million room exception. That’s enough to start filling out the roster to build better depth around a core group that now includes James, Davis, Hachimura and Reaves.

It's easy to say “Now, the Lakers have to sign Hachimura to a new deal”, but this is still a low-risk flyer for the Lakers. If Hachimura works out, they can re-sign him to a reasonable new deal, as laid out above. If Hachimura doesn’t work out, the Lakers can renounce him and still have well over $30 million in cap space. The chance that Hachimura might pop is worth spending three second-rounders of capital on.

Last thing to note, Los Angeles will add almost $3 million to their luxury tax bill. The Lakers are only taking on just over $1 million in salary, but in terms of taxes and penalties, they’ll get hit with just shy of $3 million more on their tax bill.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards side of this deal is far easier to explain. When they didn’t ink Rui Hachimura to an extension, it signaled his days in DC might have been numbered. When Hachimura couldn’t fully break through in a crowded forward group, his time in Washington was fully up.

Before his recent injury, the Wizards had shifted Kristaps Porzingis back to playing at the 4. That allowed Washington to get Daniel Gafford back in the starting lineup. That’s important, because the Wizards have $40.2 million in fully guaranteed money invested in Gafford’s extension which starts next season.

Kyle Kuzma slides to the three in that alignment, but that pushed Deni Avdija to the bench. In that situation, you had Avdija, Hachimura and 2021 first-rounder Corey Kispert all competing for minutes behind Porzingis and Kuzma, who both play in the mid-30 minutes per night range.

Essentially, where there was once a logjam, there no longer is.

Nunn may see some time off the Wizards bench, but he was in this deal as salary ballast. Washington doesn’t really need him when the rest of their guards are healthy. The Wizards already aren’t playing veteran wing Will Barton, so it’s unlikely Nunn cracks the rotation. It’s more likely that Nunn and/or Barton could be moved elsewhere before the deadline. If not, keep an eye on both as buyout candidates.

The real get for Washington in this deal was freeing up that forward rotation and adding three second-round picks for a player they weren’t going to re-sign this summer. The Wizards got the Chicago Bulls second-round pick this summer. That’s likely to end being a middle of the second round selection, but there is some upside there, given Chicago’s inconsistency this season. Then they’ll get the worst of their own pick and the Lakers pick in 2028 and the Lakers pick in 2029. At worst, Washington keeps their own pick in 2028, but could get a potentially juicy selection that is several years out in 2029.

If nothing else, the Wizards now have some additional draft pick capital to work with in future trade offers. That’s good for a team that was a bit light in the future pick column, due to several past trades having not fulfilled all of their obligations just yet.

Last note for Washington: They dropped to about $1.3 million under the tax line. That’s good additional flexibility to have over the next two-and-a-half weeks before the trade deadline. Prior to this deal, the Wizards were a little too close to the tax line for comfort. They should now have enough wiggle room to even add a little bit of salary in any subsequent deal, while still avoiding the tax.

As the Toronto Raptors continue to wallow below .500 and out of the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament picture, trade rumors swirl around most of their roster. Recent reports say the Raptors will “do something” before the February 9 trade deadline. Toronto President Masai Ujiri isn’t one who is content to sit in the middle, so expect the Raptors to pick a direction soon. They’ll either be all-in or they’ll be resetting the roster ahead of a busy offseason.

One player caught in the center of all of this swirl is veteran point guard Fred VanVleet. Recently, VanVleet addressed his contract and potential extension negotiations with the Raptors. He didn’t say much beyond his loyalty is with the Raptors. On reports that he turned down a contract extension, VanVleet’s response was that there hadn’t been an offer made for him to turn down.

That’s all well and good, but a player of VanVleet’s caliber is going to be made an extension offer. Even if an official one hasn’t been made, VanVleet, his reps and the Raptors know what the max they can offer him is. The other option is that VanVleet could play things out and immediately become one of the best players on the free agent market this summer. Let’s look at what VanVleet’s next contract could look like.

The Veteran Extension

The most beneficial extension scenario for Fred VanVleet would be to decline his player option for next season. This would allow him to add four years via an extension. If VanVleet opted in for next season, he’d only be able to add up to three years. He could wait, and extend after opting in, but that’s probably not something that’s on the table.

In a four-year extension by declining his option, here’s what VanVleet’s deal would look like:

• 2023-24: $25,500,000
• 2024-25: $27,540,000
• 2025-26: $29,580,000
• 2026-27: $31,620,000
• Total: four years, $114,240,000

That’s a bump of 20% over VanVleet’s current $21,250,000 salary with 8% raises on top of that.

This deal would give VanVleet an average annual value (AAV) of $28.56 million. That’s well below his max salary, but in range of what a realistic salary could be if VanVleet opted for free agency.

For reference, $25.5 million would make VanVleet the 14th highest paid point guard next season. He’d be right behind Jalen Brunson and just ahead of Mike Conley. That feels about right for VanVleet, as far as company goes. Non-All-Stars, but right at the top of that next tier down.

Given that company, the dearth of quality free agents next summer and the need to have a good point guard, we have to ask: could VanVleet do better by simply opting out and hitting the open market?

Re-signing with the Raptors as a free agent

Toronto’s leg-up on the competition to re-sign Fred VanVleet is that they can offer him a fifth year and they can offer him 8% raises vs being limited to four-years deals with 5% raises. The max VanVleet can get in free agency from Toronto looks like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the cap max, with 8% raises and the max of five years.

This deal would immediately vault VanVleet into third place in salary among all point guards, behind only veteran superstars Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard. He’d be ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young (in the second years of their Designated Rookie extensions) and on par with someone like Ja Morant (who seems destined to quality for a Designated Rookie extension).

If you blanch at that kind of money for VanVleet, don’t worry. You aren’t alone. He’s not getting a full max deal. We’re simply setting the high-end that he could sign for. History tells us VanVleet will land somewhere south of that $40.2 million number in first-year salary.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Fred VanVleet is going to fall somewhere between the top-five and top-10 on available free agent lists this summer. We’ve got him ranked fifth overall, and the players in front of him (James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green and Khris Middleton) are more likely to re-sign with their teams than they are to leave.

That could put VanVleet in play to be the best free agent to actually change teams this summer. We’ve already got reporting that the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic could be interested in acquiring the veteran point guard to lead their offenses.

Here’s the most a rival team could offer VanVleet:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer VanVleet is four years and 5% raises.

We’ve already covered where that would place VanVleet among his peers at his position next season. That’s probably not in play.

One other thing to be aware of: This is the most VanVleet could get via a sign-and-trade too. That’s important because of something we’re going to cover next.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

Extend-and-trade deals are rare, because they don’t really offer all that much for the player. They’re limited to a 5% bump in salary over their current salary and then adding one more year at an 8% bump. In Fred VanVleet’s case, here’s what it would look like for him in the new years of an extend-and-trade:

• 2023-24: $22,312,500
• 2024-25: $24,097,500

That’s over $46 million in new money, but that’s not really where VanVleet is at. He’d also make roughly $500,000 less in the first year of an extend-and-trade than he would by simply opting in with Toronto for next season.

It’s important to note that any team trading for VanVleet can’t extend him immediately either. They’d have to wait for six months to extend him for more than he could get via an extend-and-trade. At that point, it’s probably best for VanVleet to simply opt out and sign a new contract as a free agent.

The Opt-In-And-Trade

Given the reported interest in Fred VanVleet on the potential free agent market, we’re going to cover the idea of an opt-in-and-trade. For example, one of the teams mentioned as a potential landing spot for VanVleet is the Phoenix Suns. If Phoenix is convinced that Chris Paul doesn’t have it anymore (he’s slipped greatly this season), they could look to move on and replace him with VanVleet.

However, Phoenix won’t have the cap space to sign VanVleet outright. And doing a sign-and-trade would subject Phoenix to the hard cap. That makes it tricky to add much salary and to maintain roster flexibility.

Thus, we could see VanVleet opt in for next season under the auspices he’d be traded to Phoenix this summer. Because it would be a straight trade, the hard cap wouldn’t be triggered. And, after a six-month waiting period, Phoenix could do a four-year extension with VanVleet. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $22,824,074
• 2024-25: $27,388,889
• 2025-26: $29,580,000
• 2026-27: $31,771,111
• 2027-28: $33,962,222
• Total: five years, $145,526,296

That’s VanVleet opting in for next season, then extending (after a six-month waiting period) to add four new years. That would follow the Veteran Extension math of a 20% bump in first-year salary, followed by 8% raises on each new year.

As you can see, this could leave a good deal of money on the table over simply signing with a team outright as a free agent. The benefits here are that it allows the acquiring team to avoid becoming hard capped, while allowing VanVleet to still add several years of new money to his deal.

Summary

Fred VanVleet’s contract situation isn’t as cut and dry as many others. He’s not a clearcut max player, so there isn’t an obvious reason for him to play things out to free agency. But VanVleet is also not a deep-career veteran who should take an extension to simply add more years to his deal.

Instead, we have a player who is firmly in the middle. We can absolutely rule out an extend-and-trade. That wouldn’t give VanVleet the money he’s earned, nor the safety of adding multiple years.

That leaves the standard veteran extension or hitting free agency. Given the market, VanVleet should probably forgo an extension, opt out of his current deal and become an unrestricted free agent this summer. That gives him the most control, plus allows for the same long-term security, while adding the ability to make the most money possible.

When suggesting VanVleet should opt for free agency, we need to consider who projects to have cap space. Eight teams project to have in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. Of those teams, we can probably eliminate the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers as VanVleet suitors. They’ve got their guard positions covered for years to come.

The Los Angeles Lakers are interesting, but they are probably thinking bigger with their cap space. And if they aren’t thinking of adding a third star around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers should be splitting their cap space up to add much-needed depth.

That leaves the Houston Rockets (they have guards, but are rumored to have interest in reuniting with James Harden so…), Detroit Pistons (if they don’t see Cade Cunningham as a point guard, and they’ve also had VanVleet interest before), Orlando Magic (guard rotation is very much in flux), San Antonio Spurs (Tre Jones is the only point guard on the roster) and the Utah Jazz (whole roster is in flux) as cap space suitors.

Of that group, VanVleet can carve out a market. And that’s before we even get to teams that could do a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors.

Given that a market for VanVleet exists, it’s now about figuring out value. VanVleet will be 29 at the end of February, which means his next deal will cover his age-29 through age-32 seasons. He’s had some injury issues over the last four years, so he’s not exactly a young 29-year-old either.

Now, we have to combine that with some shooting percentages that have slipped to a dangerous level this season. VanVleet has always been an average finisher at the rim and more of a midrange and three-point specialist. Given his shot profile, shooting 40% overall, 37% on three-pointers wasn’t overly worrisome.

This season, VanVleet is under 40% overall and hitting just 33% of his shots from deep. That’s on a high volume of 8.6 three-point attempts per game too. If that’s a blip, whatever. If it isn’t, that’s a bad sign of things to come.

On the flip side, VanVleet remains a fairly rugged defender. He’s strong, so he can hold up against bigger players. He’s also a good rebounder for his position and a good playmaker. Ideally, VanVleet would be the guy who sets your offense and then spots up for open jumpers off others. A high-end organizer, if you will.

Having looked at all that, VanVleet is probably going to garner offers that pay him somewhat near, or above, $30 million in first-year salary. That would put VanVleet right in that Chris Paul/Kyle Lowry territory as veteran point guards who are just outside the top-10 in salary.

If a team were smart, given VanVleet’s age, injury history and potentially declining shooting, they’d frontload his deal. Give him more in Year 1 than what most think is fair, but the contract would then descend each year, to match any potential fall-off in play.

For the Raptors, that deal could look like:

• 2023-24: $33,600,000
• 2024-25: $30,912,000
• 2025-26: $28,224,000
• 2026-27: $25,536,000
• Total: four years, $118,272,000

That’s the max-allowable 8% declines from year to year.

For a rival team, they could offer a declining structure that looks like this:

• 2023-24: $32,000,000
• 2024-25: $30,400,000
• 2025-26: $28,800,000
• 2026-27: $27,200,000
• Total: four years, $118,400,000

That’s the max-allowable 5% declines each year.

In both scenarios, VanVleet gets roughly $118 million. In both scenarios, teams are protected in the early-30s years for VanVleet, in case his play falls way off. For reference, $26 million would be roughly 15% of a $170 million cap in 2026-27. And that could be low-balling where the cap will fall under a new CBA and with new media rights deals in place.

No matter where his next deal lands, Fred VanVleet should skip signing an extension right now. Unless he really wants to stay in Toronto long-term, and he might very well want to, he’s likely leaving money on the table if he forgoes becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bigger offers should await him this offseason, whether they are from the only NBA home he’s known, or elsewhere.

After trading Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, the prevailing wisdom around the Utah Jazz was that veterans like Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley and Rudy Gay would be next to go. Instead, the Jazz hung on to those veterans and have been better than expected halfway through the NBA regular season.

Clarkson, in particular, has had a really good year. He’s also become a leader for a somewhat young Utah roster. Clarkson’s play and leadership have brought enough to the team that reports are the Jazz are more likely to extend him than they are to trade him.

In his ninth NBA season, Clarkson is averaging a career-high 20.7 points per game, while playing the most minutes of his career. As a full-time starter for the first time since his sophomore season, Clarkson has maintained, or lifted, his shooting percentages, while also averaging career-bests in rebounds and assists.

Let’s take a look at what Clarkson could get by extending with the Jazz and what his next deal could look like if he were to push his decision to free agency.

The Veteran Extension

In the most beneficial veteran extension scenario, Jordan Clarkson would decline his player option for next season. That would allow Clarkson to add four new years to his deal. Clarkson could also opt in for next season, and add just three seasons. This is because contracts are limited to five total years (years remaining, plus new years) in a veteran extension.

In this scenario, we’ll look at Clarkson declining his 2023-24 option, in order to add four years.

• 2023-24: $16,008,000
• 2024-25: $17,288,640
• 2025-26: $18,569,280
• 2026-27: $19,849,920
• Total: four years, $71,715,840

That’s a 20% bump off of Clarkson’s $13.34 million salary for this season. He’d also be eligible for 8% raises, which is also reflected here.

For this season, a $16 million salary would rank 22nd among NBA shooting guards. That would see Clarkson nestled right between Norman Powell of the LA Clippers and Jazz teammate Malik Beasley.

If we flip it ahead one season, at $16 million, Clarkson would be 27th in the NBA among shooting guards. That’s right behind Beasley and just ahead of Kevin Huerter of the Sacramento Kings.

Not bad company for Clarkson in either spot. Powell, Beasley and Huerter are all solid score-first guards. Huerter is a regular starter, while Powell and Beasley both come off their bench for their teams.

But even in that company, could Clarkson do better in free agency?

Re-signing with the Jazz as a free agent

Utah has full Bird rights for Clarkson. That means that they could offer him up to the max. For posterities sake, here’s what that would look like for Clarkson as a nine years of service player:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the projected $134 million cap for 2023-24, with 8% raises tacked on.

Now, Jordan Clarkson isn’t getting that much in free agency. He’d be the third-highest paid shooting guard in the NBA at $40.2 million, behind only Bradley Beal, Paul George (who is also kind of a small forward) and Klay Thompson. Good as he is (and as overpaid as a couple of those guys may be), that’s not the kind of player Clarkson is.

So, while it’s nice to have a high-point salary as a high-end marker, that’s all it is.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Clarkson is an interesting spot as a potential unrestricted free agent. Two guard is probably the deepest position in free agency, but Clarkson is somewhere in the 2-to-7 range at his position. Overall, Clarkson is likely somewhere in the 10-to-20 range among all potential free agents.

Here’s the most a rival team could offer Clarkson:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer Clarkson is four years and 5% raises.

This deal serves as a nice comparison point for Clarkson’s potential extension with Utah. In theory, Clarkson would be leaving $100 million on the table. In reality, it’s more of another high-end marker that Clarkson won’t come anywhere close to.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

Even if we’re trying to tamp down expectations a bit for Jordan Clarkson on his next deal, doing an extend-and-trade or an extension after a trade aren’t in range for him. He’d only be able to add a 5% bump off his current $13.34 million salary in Year 1 and then 8% in Year 2. Either situation would look like this:

• 2023-24: $14,007,000
• 2024-25: $15,127,560

Adding $29.1 million isn’t bad, but that’s less money in Year 1 of this extension than Clarkson would make by simply picking up his player option.

And Clarkson can’t extend after a trade, because any extension that would go beyond what’s allowable in an extend in trade would have to wait for six months. That would take us past the opening of free agency, and Clarkson would be better off to just opt out and re-sign with any team that traded for him.

Summary

Jordan Clarkson is having a great season. If the Jazz record were a bit better, he’d join teammate Lauri Markkanen in garnering All-Star consideration. It’s easy to see why Utah is thinking extension vs trading Clarkson.

On the flip side, Clarkson is turning in a career-year in his age-30 season. His last two full seasons in Utah, Clarkson shot 42.2% overall and 33.3% on three-pointers. And on a contender, he’s probably a combo guard coming off the bench.

But let’s not pretend that good bench scorers don’t have value. Two of Clarkson’s best career comps are Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford. Williams had a 17-year career as primarily a bench scoring guard, while Crawford went for a whopping 20 years in that role. Having the remainder of his career play out like two of the preeminent sixth men in NBA history is a good goal for Clarkson.

Given his age, and factoring in that this is probably a career-year and not a new baseline, we can split the difference on what is fair for Clarkson’s next contract. And we’ll also factor in that he’s a valuable player as a reserve of a starter and that his scoring is a skill that gets players paid.

With all that we know, the Jazz would do well to simply extend Clarkson now. He’d get roughly $18 million AAV and that’s pretty fair value. Utah would do best to try to keep it to three years and $52 million, as opposed to four years and almost $72 million, but that’s just to protect against age-related regression.

However, for Clarkson, that’s probably right on the border of it being worth testing free agency. The free agent class this summer is weak enough that there is likely to be more money available than players to reasonably spend it on. Only James Harden, Kyrie Irving and maybe Khris Middleton are max contract guys this summer, and they are all more likely to re-sign where they are than to leave. That leaves a lot available for everyone else.

Clarkson is a primary player among that “everyone else” group. It’s not a stretch to see a team offering him a three- or four-year deal in the $20 million AAV range.

With that in mind, it’s probably best for Jordan Clarkson to finish this year strong, opt out and see what free agency has to offer. Utah loves Clarkson and he seems happy there. Whatever the Jazz can offer him in an extension should be there this summer, and Utah can beat any rival’s offer too. If Clarkson can leverage his way into a bit more salary in free agency, so much the better for him.

The NBA trade deadline is roughly a month away. As it stands right now, there are more buyers than sellers. The Play-In Tournament and flattened lottery odds have done a number on tanking on both ends of the spectrum. Having something to play for (making the Play-In Tournament) keeps more teams in the postseason race for longer. Not having to be egregiously bad keeps teams from completely bottoming out in the race for the most ping pong balls.

The result is that we have a trade market that can take a bit to develop. That said, there are a handful of teams that need to push in over the next month before the deadline. These teams make up sort of a forgotten “middle” of the NBA. Not necessarily in the standings, but on the cap sheet.

By now, you probably know that both the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs are sitting on about $27 million in cap space apiece. The Pacers look like a playoff team, while the Spurs are chasing ping pong balls. But both will be active at the trade deadline, almost because they have to be.

Both the Pacers and Spurs are about $15 million under the salary floor. They’ll take on some money either through trades, or in the case of the Pacers, by a renegotiation-and-extension with Myles Turner.

At the opposite end of the bank books, there are currently 10 teams over the luxury tax line with another five teams less than $2 million from the tax line. These teams range from the Golden State Warriors, Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers who are so far past the tax line they can barely see it, to the Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers and Miami Heat who are dancing around either side of the line.

We can also say with confidence that teams in the race for Victor Wembanyama shouldn’t be taking on too much by the trade deadline. The Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic should be active, but only for trades that help them collect talent or draft picks. There isn’t a big reason to take on salary, especially salary that extends beyond this season, as these teams should be cap space players this summer.

That leaves a group of six teams who are all firmly in the playoff mix, but aren’t really in danger of dipping into the luxury tax. They make up that forgotten “middle” when it comes to salary accounting: Not sitting on cap space, but not so expensive you can almost rattle off their tax bill from memory.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings should all be making a push and looking to add money to this year’s cap sheet.

The first reason is obvious. Each of these teams should be looking to strengthen their rosters for a playoff push. That’s simple enough.

The second reason is a bit more obtuse. It lies in a bit of cap sheet management that we can all “use it or lose it” flexibility. The Cavs, Grizzlies, Wolves, Pelicans, Knicks and Kings are all sitting on a decent chunk of spending power before they hit the tax line. This summer, things reset. For a few of these teams, they could find themselves having to make decisions for this offseason and beyond that involve going into the tax or not. But for right now, for this 2023 playoff run, each team has the ability to improve without pushing themselves into a financially burdensome spot. Let’s take a look.

Cleveland Cavaliers

2022-23 Tax Space: $2.5 million

The Cavs need another wing and another shooter. If that comes in the form of the same player, even better. They’re tighter to the tax line than anyone else here, but that $2.5 million should give them enough wiggle room to get what they need without tripping the tax. That might mean adding some money to next year’s books (Tim Hardaway Jr. anyone?), but that’s going to happen by virtue of re-signing Kevin Love and/or Caris LeVert anyway. Cleveland has a real chance to make noise in the playoffs for the first time without LeBron James. They have to take advantage.

Memphis Grizzlies

2022-23 Tax Space: $28.9 million

Memphis is really good. Like “could win the 2023 NBA Finals” good. They’ve got a star (Ja Morant), great secondary guys (Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr.), and a strong supporting cast. That said, the Grizzlies still have needs. They could really use another wing shooter. Maybe that’s Danny Green, if he can get healthy. But more likely, Green’s $10 million expiring contract could help fill that need. It might mean trading a couple of their kids (always tough because Memphis is the NBA’s premier draft-and-develop organization), but it’s worth it. Title windows sometimes open before you expect them to, but they snap shut quickly too. This roster is going to get really expensive soon. The Grizzlies have the tax space this year to add to their roster without coming close to tax. They should take advantage of that while they can. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

2022-23 Tax Space: $3.1 million

The Wolves are playing better. They’re finally figuring stuff out on both ends of the floor after making the all-in trade for Rudy Gobert. It’s because of that deal that Minnesota has to maximize when they can. Next season, they’ll have some free agents to re-sign (D’Angelo Russell, Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid) and the year after that, extensions will kick in for Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Barring further roster shuffling, the Timberwolves are going to be a very expensive team and soon. That makes this year the year to make another move. If they were still scuffling along down around 12th in the conference, we might feel differently. But Towns will be back soon, and Minnesota has some tradable contracts to stack together to fill holes. Another wing and another shooter, and the Wolves could make real noise in the playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans

2022-23 Tax Space: $3.6 million

The Pelicans are a hair behind the Grizzlies in the “they could win the title this year” mix. Most of that is related to injuries to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. When healthy, New Orleans is every bit as good as any team in the West. But it’s that “when healthy” qualifier that makes it necessary to upgrade the roster right now. $3.6 million isn’t a ton of tax space, but it’s enough to fill a hole. Another shooter with size could do wonders on this roster. Kyle Kuzma maybe? That’ll cost the Pelicans a pick (it’s time to move that swap with the Lakers, like right now!) and a young player or two. But that’s fine. The roster is a little overstuffed as is. A small consolidation move involving one or two of the kids, plus a pick, is the move to make.

New York Knicks

2022-23 Tax Space: $7.7 million

The Knicks are one of only a few teams that are top-10 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating. They’re a legitimately good team, even if they have a proclivity for looking awful in losses. New York also has plenty of non-rotation players that they can package together to make a major rotation upgrade. With that kind of salary-matching and nearly $8 million in wiggle room under the tax, the Knicks should be a player at the trade deadline. They’ve also got their core signed through next season, and still have plenty of space under next year’s tax. That means taking on long-term salary shouldn’t be an issue either.

Sacramento Kings

2022-23 Tax Space: $17.4 million

Light the beam! The Kings are good and they are fun. And they have the ability to make moves to make a playoff run more of a reality, as opposed to a dream. Note: that’s playoff run, not a Play-In Tournament run. Sacramento can put together a few midrange contracts belonging to non- and semi-rotation players (Richaun Holmes, Terence Davis, Alex Len) that can get them in the range of a $20 million player. Imagine the Kings with one more wing. Or another big that can play behind and with Domantas Sabonis. Or a guard with some size. Sacramento is fifth in the Western Conference right now. With the right move, they could maintain that, and the assured playoff spot. That would finally break their 16-year playoff drought. And the Kings can do it without even touching the luxury tax. Now is the time to really light that beam in Sacramento!