The NBA is in a weird place two weeks or so out from the trade deadline on February 9. Only four teams in the entire league are more than three games out of a spot in the Play-In Tournament. In the Eastern Conference, only the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons have no realistic shot at making the postseason.

That’s caused the trade market to be a bit jammed up. There just aren’t a lot of clearcut sellers at the moment.

Instead of presenting our annual look at who are Buyers (teams looking to add for a playoff push), Sellers (teams planning for the future), Either (teams who could buy or could sell) or Neither (teams who are likely to sit out the deadline entirely), we’re adding a twist. We’ll tell you which camp each stands in for now. (Spoiler: There are a lot of buyers!) But we’re also going to tell you what camp each team should be standing in.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Either 

The Hawks are could move some guys (John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Justin Holiday), but they won’t tear things down. If they trade any of their veterans, Atlanta will be looking to reset around a core of Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

The Hawks have it right. There’s too much talent to blow it up entirely. But can you finally trade John Collins if you aren’t going to appreciate what you have?

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Boston might dump another contract (Justin Jackson is the likely choice) to save some against the luxury tax. Major trades are probably out though. Look for the Celtics to do their work in the buyout market.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Celtics don’t need to go crazy. Their top-eight is any good as any in the NBA. But they could use some reinforcements for the rest of the regular season. Top of the list should be a wing to lessen the minutes burden for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Brooklyn is looking to upgrade. They could use another big to play behind and/or next to Nic Claxton (who is having an outstanding season) or one more guard, ideally one with some size.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Buying is right for the Nets. They’re a title contender and this isn’t going to be a super long window of contention either. Brooklyn should maximize what they can before the next circus comes along.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers 

We get to one of the assured sellers in the East. The Hornets have a lot of vets they are looking to move (Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, Kelly Oubre Jr.), but a couple might be tough sells.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte is trying. Moving Hayward (contract) and Oubre (injury) probably isn’t happening. But someone might want Terry Rozier for guard depth, and Mason Plumlee is a gettable center for any contender’s frontcourt depth. Cleaning up the books and opening up time for their kids and any kids they acquire is the way forward. Also: don’t trade Jalen McDaniels. He’s good and young enough to be a keeper on a new deal.

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Either

Chicago might make some deals, but they aren’t going to tear things down fully. They owe a top-four protected pick to Orlando, so they don’t want to really bottom out. Because of that, they might make rebalancing trades vs selling off players.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. Where is this team going with this core this year and next? The Play-In Tournament? The sixth seed? It all sort of fell apart quickly after a promising start, but why delay the inevitable? And that pick is a sunk cost. Maybe you just bad enough that the extra few ping pong balls move you up in the lottery and you keep it. Also: if you aren’t re-signing Coby White this summer, it’s time to move him. There are too many guards in Chicago as is.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs are looking for wings. They have basically everything else. One more quality wing would take this team from “frisky in the first round” to “Cleveland could make the conference finals”. And, you know what? They might be the latter anyway.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Cleveland is dangling Caris LeVert’s expiring $18.8 million deal to see what it can get them. That’s the right idea, but to make a real move, Cleveland may need to add Isaac Okoro into that offer. They just don’t have the draft picks to plus up any offers for a while.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Detroit is best termed as an “opportunistic seller”. The Pistons don’t feel pressure to move Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks, but if they get the right offer, they’ll do it. And right now, in a seller’s market, that right offer is going to have to be pretty big.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Pistons are thinking of things the right way, but they should be a big more aggressive as we approach the deadline. It might make sense to hang onto Bogdanovic, especially if they think they can be a good team next year. Burks is a different story. If they get even a decent offer, move him along and fill that spot in free agency with cap space in the summer. And Nerlens Noel is as good as gone, either via trade or waiver after the deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Pacers are in a fun spot. They’re better than expected, so they could reasonably add without a bunch of questions as to why they are buying. They also aren’t so good that selling off some vets would be crazy.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

With nearly $28 million in cap space, Indiana should be very active at the deadline. If they can pick off a player or two to give them a bit more size and balance to their roster, they should do it. And if someone wants to drastically overpay for Myles Turner and/or Buddy Hield, that should be on the table too. Oh, and it’s an NBA rule that Daniel Theis has to be traded in every trade window, right?

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Heat don’t really have the assets, nor the flexibility, to be big-time buyers. They’ll be active. And never count out the Miami front office from getting really creative. But it’s hard to see how they do much.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Miami is in a tough spot next year with their roster. Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are pending unrestricted free agents. Losing both would be killer for the Heat’s depth. Keeping both is going to add to what is already a wildly expensive team. The solution: Why not at least explore the trade market for Kyle Lowry? His play has slipped to the point where his contract looks questionable at least, it not bad. But if a would-be contender wants a veteran floor leader, that could give the Heat an out and a chance to reset things a bit this summer.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers 

The Bucks are looking to round out their rotation. They’ve been in on Jae Crowder since his trade request was made. They’ve also looked at ways to add Eric Gordon. Essentially, if you’re trading a wing that can defend, hit shots, or both (in an ideal world) and that wing makes under $20 million, Milwaukee wants to talk.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Buying is what the Bucks should be doing. They are right there in title contention. Go after it. This roster seems pretty creaky for its long-term viability. Now is the time to go all-in. Keep an eye on the frontcourt too, just in case the Bobby Portis injury is more worrisome than it appears.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Either

New York is in a weird spot. Ideally, they’d add some guys who can help prop up a playoff run. They really want to get into the top-six and avoid the Play-In Tournament. But the Knicks also have some vets who are very, very available.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Knicks need to be offering packages of their veterans, along with draft picks, to find upgrades. One more wing and another good backup guard and this rotation would be really fleshed out. And New York has the ability to get it done, both in terms of tradable contracts and draft picks to send out in trade.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Neither

The Magic might move Mo Bamba, Terrence Ross (last vet standing!) and maybe Gary Harris. Bamba and Ross feel like they are on borrowed time, and Harris is probably on the lower-end of the guard pecking order. But don’t be surprised if the Magic just ride things out to some extent and try to make their big moves this summer.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Orlando has to move Bamba and Ross, at the very least. Neither are regular rotation players. The returns won’t be huge, but a few more second-rounders are better than nothing for guys who won’t be back with the Magic next season. Harris is a harder call. He plays a real role, and team likes him helping to lead a young backcourt. But Orlando has to at least listen. Also, if someone got crazy about Jonathan Isaac, now that he’s back, that’s worth listening on too. Everyone else should take something really enticing to even start to get the Magic thinking about it.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Daryl Morey is going to try to thread a difficult needle at the deadline: Add to the roster, while also shedding enough salary to get out of the tax. Don’t count him out. But no matter what, he’ll tinker around the edges of his rotation.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Like the Celtics, Nets and Bucks, the Sixers are a title contender. They don’t need a lot. They should be pushing to add a big behind Joel Embiid (just in case) and a wing shooter that can hold up defensively. There’s a good chance what we get is a salary-dump to avoid the tax, then some work on the buyout market.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Raptors are the ultimate wildcard at the deadline. Masai Ujiri might wake up one morning over the next couple of weeks and decide to blow it up. He might also look at his team and make a move to bolster a Play-In run and then a frisky first round series.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto should sell, but within reason. They don’t need to trade everyone. But it’s time to decide if Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are going to be around past this season. If so, what’s the walk-away number? Is a frontcourt of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes really viable? If not, do you need a marquee big? And, for the love of all that is basketball holy, please find a way to trade at least one or two of the five big men who see at least semi-regular playing time off the bench.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Washington seems destined to never be out of Play-In range. Never higher than seventh in the East, but never lower than 12th. Always around .500. Never really good, but never really bad either. And that’s why they’ll probably sit it out at the deadline. They already moved Rui Hachimura, and that’ll probably be it. They’ll likely overpay to keep Kyle Kuzma this summer, and Kristaps Porzingis either this summer or next, and that should keep both off the trade market.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Wizards are just like the Bulls, as far as having real questions about their ceiling. The Wizards should also be a flashing red warning beacon for the Raptors and what they could become. But unlike Chicago and Toronto, who could look very different in a year or two, Washington seems to really want to keep their core in place. Ideally, they’d at least listen on Kuzma and Porzingis. Just to see what’s out there before they lock in, but there are no signs that’s in play. At the very least Will Barton (and maybe Kendrick Nunn too) won’t be on this roster much past the deadline. If he’s not traded, he’ll be bought out.

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is about two weeks away.  So far, we’ve seen two in-season trades. The Boston Celtics salary-dumped Noah Vonleh on the San Antonio Spurs. And, in a more meaningful move, the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Rui Hachimura from the Washington Wizards for Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit two weeks from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.6 million (Maurice Harkless), $3.6 million (Kevin Huerter)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed extra first-round pick from Sacramento. Hawks have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: John Collins. He’s been in rumors forever. Feels like something might actually got done this time.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $23.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.9 million (Dennis Schroder), $3.2 million (Danilo Gallinari Disabled Player Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Celtics owe this year’s first-rounder to the Pacers. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028. Boston has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Justin Jackson. Nothing exciting here beyond a tax-savings move. It’s far more likely Boston is active on the buyout marker than the trade market.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $34.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $2.5 million (James Harden)

Draft Pick Situation: Brooklyn is about neutral in first-round picks. They owe a couple of their own to Houston, but they have a couple coming from Philadelphia. The Nets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Patty Mills. He’s no longer in the Nets rotation and his $6.5 million for this year is a nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected first-rounder to the Spurs, but have a protected first-rounder coming from Denver. Charlotte has at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mason Plumlee. This would have been Kelly Oubre Jr., but his recent hand surgery has him in a bit of flux. If Charlotte pivots towards development, and they should, Mark Williams will get the bulk of the center minutes. That makes Plumlee very available.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe protected first-round picks to Orlando and San Antonio in coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2029. The Bulls also have one truly tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached, including a pending forfeit from tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Coby White. If Chicago makes any sort of upgrade to their rotation, it’s likely White will be traded. He’s a pending restricted free agent and the Bulls have a bunch of other guards.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Ochai Agbaji)

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes four future first-round picks to the Pacers (one) and Jazz (three), as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The Cavs have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Caris LeVert. It’s unlikely Cleveland does any major moves at the deadline, but if they do, LeVert has to be involved. The Cavs have guys on the roster who can fill what he does and his $18.8 million expiring contract is a very nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $15.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a first to New York that should convey this season. They are free to trade all of their other first-rounders. The Mavs have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dwight Powell. There isn’t a great candidate for Dallas. But Powell would likely be the one to move if the Mavericks made a big move.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.5 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.1 million (Monte Morris), $3.5 million (JaMychal Green)

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Charlotte, Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to trade a first-round pick at this deadline. The Nuggets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Ish Smith. This would be a move simply to lessen the Nuggets tax bill, or Smith could go to yet another team in a swap of similar salaries.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $627 thousand under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a heavily protected first to New York that may not convey for at least a couple of seasons. The Pistons have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alec Burks. The Pistons have set a high price for Bojan Bogdanovic. Teams will probably just wait and see if Nerlens Noel is bought out. That leaves Burks as an attainable mid-range players for other teams.

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $40.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Warriors owe one protected first-round pick to the Grizzlies. Golden State has at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: James Wiseman. This is strictly a hunch. If the Warriors are going to bolster their bench in any kind of meaningful way, Wiseman would be the guy to go the other way in a trade.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $14.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Christian Wood)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston has a couple of extra first-rounders coming from Brooklyn and Miami. They also owe two protected picks to Oklahoma City, and there are swap rights in the mix too. The Rockets should have at least at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Eric Gordon. Gordon is the only veteran of note on the Rockets roster. Most of the other players are on rookie scale contracts and not going anywhere.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.8 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Indiana will get additional 2023 first-round picks from Boston and Cleveland. The Pacers also have all of their own first-round picks. The Pacers have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Daniel Theis. It doesn’t seem very likely that Indiana is trading Myles Turner or Buddy Hield, despite years and months of rumors respectively. Theis seems to get moved during every trade window lately. If the Pacers are sending anyone out, it’ll probably be him.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $41.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.7 million (Serge Ibaka)

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers owe two more first-round picks to the Thunder, plus two years of swap rights. LA has six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Covington. Adding salary is no obstacle for the Clippers. They’ve got the greenlight to keep adding to an already giant tax bill. Covington is only a sometimes rotation player. If his $12.3 million salary can get LA an upgrade, they’ll do it.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $20.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans can swap for the Lakers pick this year. And Los Angeles owes New Orleans first in either 2024 or 2025, pending a Pelicans potential deferment. That leaves the Lakers with their 2027 and 2029 firsts as tradable. Los Angeles has four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Damian Jones. This isn’t as exciting or as fun as a huge Russell Westbrook trade, but that seems unlike. Instead, Jones could be moved in a salary-dump which would save some on the tax bill and also eliminate his player option for next season as a potential issue for the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks and one extra pick coming from the Warriors. Memphis has nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Danny Green. It’s unlikely the Grizzlies will do much at the deadline, even if they should. They’re really close to being the best team in the West and one more player could push them over. But Memphis likes to keep their own guys. If they do make a move, it’ll probably involve Green.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $163 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat owe one first to the Thunder, but own all of their other first-round picks. The Heat have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon has been replaced by Orlando Robinson in the rotation. Omer Yurtseven could return and bump Dedmon to fourth on the center depth chart. His $4.7 million could get moved to bring in help, or to clear some needed breathing room under the tax line.

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.4 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks only own two of their own future first-round picks. The others are owed to some combination of the Rockets, Pelicans and Knicks, plus the Pels own swap rights on two other years too. Milwaukee has eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Serge Ibaka. This one is cheating a bit, as the Bucks and Ibaka already agreed to find him a new home. If not Ibaka, keep an eye on Jordan Nwora or George Hill. They could both be nice pieces of salary-matching in a deal.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.1 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.4 million (Jarred Vanderbilt)

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah four future first-round picks, only one of which is protected. Because of the Stepien Rule, the Wolves can’t deal another first. The Timberwolves have three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bryn Forbes. Super boring, but the Wolves don’t project to do anything big at the deadline. All of their meaningful salaries belong to rotation players. Minnesota is likely to focus on getting healthy and treating that as their “acquisitions”.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own three extra first-rounders courtesy of the Lakers and Bucks. They also have swap rights on three years with those two teams too. New Orleans has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Willy Hernangomez. When the Pelicans are healthy (or assuming they ever are), Hernangomez is the fifth big in their rotation. New Orleans should be able to pick up another second-rounder if they deal Hernangomez to a big-needy team.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Knicks first-round pick situation is complicated. They have all of their first-rounders moving forward. They have additional picks coming from Dallas, Detroit, Washington, and potentially Milwaukee, moving forward. Those picks all have various protections attached, but all should eventually convey to New York. The Knicks have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cam Reddish. The contract is small enough to moved easily. New York is apparently asking only for a second-rounder or two in the deal. Reddish will likely get moved before the deadline.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $10.2 million (Derrick Favors), $4.2 million (Ty Jerome)

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has at least eight extra first-round picks headed their way from a combination of the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, Heat, 76ers and Nuggets. In addition, the Thunder have at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Darius Bazley. It’s unlikely the Thunder will do much at the deadline. They aren’t sitting on cap space anymore. And OKC can’t realistically add any more draft picks. If they want to avoid any messiness with Bazley in restricted free agency, the Thunder might move him along to another team.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have extra firsts coming from the Bulls and the Nuggets, in addition to all of their own first-round picks. Orlando has at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mo Bamba or Terrence Ross. Is this finally the year Ross gets traded? What about Bamba who has lost all of his minutes in a healthy, and crowded, frontcourt? Don’t be surprised if both are moved by the deadline, as Orlando consolidates things a bit on their roster.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers have four of their own first-round picks over the next seven years, with three picks owed to a combination of the Nets, Thunder and possibly Jazz or Rockets. In the second round, Philadelphia owns only two picks that they will definitely get. This partially from forfeiting second-round picks in 2023 and 2024 due to tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jaden Springer. If the 76ers can move Springer and take no salary back, they’ll get themselves clear of the tax. That’s likely to be a goal heading into the trade deadline.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $16.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix is the only team in the NBA that owns all of their own first and second round picks, and doesn’t have any extra picks in either round.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jae Crowder. Even if it’s for a very minor return, Phoenix has to move on from Crowder. They’ll likely get something of value, as he can help several contenders, but it’s a surety that Crowder will be moved before the deadline. Keep an eye on Dario Saric here too.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $67 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Robert Covington), $3.3 million (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028, but the pick should convey before then. The Blazers have four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Hart. It’s probably more likely Portland stands pat, but Hart could be part of a deal to bring a bit more size to the roster. He’s also on a very tradable contract.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $17.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4 million (Tyrese Haliburton)

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks, but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. Sacramento has between nine and 11 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alex Len. Sacramento has a lot of potentials for this spot. The Kings should be looking to aggregate together a bunch of salaries of non-rotation players. That could deliver a rotation player who makes upwards of $20 million this season. That’s the way to go all-in on a playoff push.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.9 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs have five extra picks coming their way from the Hawks, Hornets and Bulls. They also own all of their own first-rounders moving forward. San Antonio has 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Richardson. Nope, not Jakob Poeltl. There seems to be real interest in re-signing the big man, so that leaves the veteran guard on the block. Richardson could help a lot of contenders and it would free up some minutes in a semi-crowded Spurs backcourt.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.3 million (Goran Dragic)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owns all of their own first-round picks with no extras coming in. The Raptors own all of their own second-rounders, minus a 2024 second-round pick they owe to Memphis.

Most Likely to be Traded: Gary Trent Jr. Maybe Toronto starts a major remodeling of their roster, but that seems more like a summer project. If they wait, and Trent isn’t a part of the future plans, expect the Raptors to get something of value before losing Trent for nothing this summer.

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.8 million (Joe Ingles), $9.6 million (Rudy Gobert), $4.9 million (Bojan Bogdanovic)

Draft Pick Situation: Utah owes one protected pick to Oklahoma City. Beyond that, the Jazz have eight additional first-rounders coming their way, mostly from the Cavaliers and Timberwolves. Utah has three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Malik Beasley. This is really a take-your-pick of any number of veterans on the Jazz roster. Beasley seems likely to fetch a solid enough return, while having a somewhat shaky spot moving forward that Utah could move on from him.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.3 million (Rui Hachimura), $3.9 million (Aaron Holiday)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. Washington has at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Will Barton. The veteran wing has fallen out of the Wizards rotation. He could still help a number of contenders who need a bench scorer. If he’s not traded, Barton could also work a buyout. Keep an eye on Kendrick Nunn as a guy who might get re-flipped after arriving in the Rui Hachimura trade.

The Los Angeles Lakers haven’t been mentioned in every trade rumor this season, but it sure seems that way. Now, the Lakers are finally poised to push a deal across the finish line.

The Lakers will reportedly send Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Rui Hachimura. The deal is reportedly on course to be completed later in the day on Monday.

This isn’t the blockbuster that many were waiting on for the Lakers, but it’s still a good move that will help them immediately. That said, even this potentially small of a move can have major ramifications beyond just the final few months of the 2022-23 season.

Los Angeles Lakers

On the basketball side, Rui Hachimura is a great fit for Los Angeles. The Lakers only healthy forward with real size was LeBron James. He’s been taxed to some degree by having to play almost all of his minutes at power forward this season. Hachimura will give the Lakers some additional size in the frontcourt, and he can play alongside both James and Anthony Davis (when the latter gets healthy) in lineups that will be fairly sizable across the frontline.

On offense, Hachimura has settled into a complementary scoring role. He’s able to overpower smaller defenders, while using his quickness against bigger players. Hachimura has also developed a fairly reliable jumper over the years. He’s not much of a passer, but the Lakers should have covered. One continuing worrisome trend is that Hachimura is an inconsistent scorer. Just this past week, he’s gone for 16 points, 0 points and 30 points over a three-game stretch.

On defense, Hachimura doesn’t offer a ton. He’s best when guarding fours, but he can do ok against slower threes. He’s a solid enough rebounder, as his rebounding rates have generally remained consistent when adjusted for playing time. He’s not fixing any defensive issues the Lakers may have, minus some on the glass, but he’s also not taking anything off the table from their current mini-sized lineups either.

Essentially, Hachimura is being added as a flyer to bring a little size to the Lakers, along with some offensive punch to the frontcourt. Given the reasonable cost to acquire him, this is a very low-risk gamble by Los Angeles.

Kendrick Nunn was a consistent rotation player, but he’s part of a guard mix for the Lakers that runs five-deep beyond him when healthy. Swapping Nunn for Hachimura rebalances the rotation and should allow Darvin Ham to avoid relying on so many three- and sometimes four-guard lineups.

It’s on the cap sheet where this deal starts to get really interesting. Prior to this trade, the Lakers were looking at somewhere in the range of $30 to $35 million in cap space this summer. Reports are that LA wants to sign Hachimura to a new deal this summer, when the forward will be eligible for restricted free agency.

In order to do so, and to avoid another team swooping in, the Lakers will have to retain Hachimura’s $18.8 million cap hold. That hold, combined with the likely $2.2 million cap hold for pending restricted free agent Austin Reaves, will be enough to keep Los Angeles over the cap this summer.

That may seem confusing, but here’s how it works: The Lakers were projected to be at roughly $33 million in space before this deal. That was by wiping the books clean of all but the guaranteed salaries of James, Davis and Max Christie, while retaining a cap hold for Austin Reaves.

Now, you add $18.8 million for Hachimura and that space reduces to roughly $14 to $15 million. At that point, that space is less than the combined amount of the Non-Taxpayer Midlevel Exception and the Bi-Annual Exception. Add those against the space, and you have Los Angeles acting as an over-the-cap team in July.

But here’s how Rob Pelinka and the front office can still do some work in free agency beyond just using exceptions. Barring the most incredible final 30-game run the NBA has ever seen, Hachimura isn’t going to be anywhere near $18.8 million in Year 1 salary on his new deal. If the Lakers could sign him to a reasonable new deal, they could still have cap space to play with. (And it will be a new contract and not an extension. As he is wrapping up his rookie scale contract, Hachimura is no longer extension-eligible). Something around $10 million feels fair for Hachimura in Year 1 salary.

If the Lakers sign Hachimura to a deal that includes $10 million in Year 1 salary, they could then wipe away all the rest of their cap holds, minus Reaves’ $2.2 million. In that case, the Lakers would still have roughly $23.5 million to work with this summer, in addition to the $5.8 million room exception. That’s enough to start filling out the roster to build better depth around a core group that now includes James, Davis, Hachimura and Reaves.

It's easy to say “Now, the Lakers have to sign Hachimura to a new deal”, but this is still a low-risk flyer for the Lakers. If Hachimura works out, they can re-sign him to a reasonable new deal, as laid out above. If Hachimura doesn’t work out, the Lakers can renounce him and still have well over $30 million in cap space. The chance that Hachimura might pop is worth spending three second-rounders of capital on.

Last thing to note, Los Angeles will add almost $3 million to their luxury tax bill. The Lakers are only taking on just over $1 million in salary, but in terms of taxes and penalties, they’ll get hit with just shy of $3 million more on their tax bill.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards side of this deal is far easier to explain. When they didn’t ink Rui Hachimura to an extension, it signaled his days in DC might have been numbered. When Hachimura couldn’t fully break through in a crowded forward group, his time in Washington was fully up.

Before his recent injury, the Wizards had shifted Kristaps Porzingis back to playing at the 4. That allowed Washington to get Daniel Gafford back in the starting lineup. That’s important, because the Wizards have $40.2 million in fully guaranteed money invested in Gafford’s extension which starts next season.

Kyle Kuzma slides to the three in that alignment, but that pushed Deni Avdija to the bench. In that situation, you had Avdija, Hachimura and 2021 first-rounder Corey Kispert all competing for minutes behind Porzingis and Kuzma, who both play in the mid-30 minutes per night range.

Essentially, where there was once a logjam, there no longer is.

Nunn may see some time off the Wizards bench, but he was in this deal as salary ballast. Washington doesn’t really need him when the rest of their guards are healthy. The Wizards already aren’t playing veteran wing Will Barton, so it’s unlikely Nunn cracks the rotation. It’s more likely that Nunn and/or Barton could be moved elsewhere before the deadline. If not, keep an eye on both as buyout candidates.

The real get for Washington in this deal was freeing up that forward rotation and adding three second-round picks for a player they weren’t going to re-sign this summer. The Wizards got the Chicago Bulls second-round pick this summer. That’s likely to end being a middle of the second round selection, but there is some upside there, given Chicago’s inconsistency this season. Then they’ll get the worst of their own pick and the Lakers pick in 2028 and the Lakers pick in 2029. At worst, Washington keeps their own pick in 2028, but could get a potentially juicy selection that is several years out in 2029.

If nothing else, the Wizards now have some additional draft pick capital to work with in future trade offers. That’s good for a team that was a bit light in the future pick column, due to several past trades having not fulfilled all of their obligations just yet.

Last note for Washington: They dropped to about $1.3 million under the tax line. That’s good additional flexibility to have over the next two-and-a-half weeks before the trade deadline. Prior to this deal, the Wizards were a little too close to the tax line for comfort. They should now have enough wiggle room to even add a little bit of salary in any subsequent deal, while still avoiding the tax.

As the Toronto Raptors continue to wallow below .500 and out of the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament picture, trade rumors swirl around most of their roster. Recent reports say the Raptors will “do something” before the February 9 trade deadline. Toronto President Masai Ujiri isn’t one who is content to sit in the middle, so expect the Raptors to pick a direction soon. They’ll either be all-in or they’ll be resetting the roster ahead of a busy offseason.

One player caught in the center of all of this swirl is veteran point guard Fred VanVleet. Recently, VanVleet addressed his contract and potential extension negotiations with the Raptors. He didn’t say much beyond his loyalty is with the Raptors. On reports that he turned down a contract extension, VanVleet’s response was that there hadn’t been an offer made for him to turn down.

That’s all well and good, but a player of VanVleet’s caliber is going to be made an extension offer. Even if an official one hasn’t been made, VanVleet, his reps and the Raptors know what the max they can offer him is. The other option is that VanVleet could play things out and immediately become one of the best players on the free agent market this summer. Let’s look at what VanVleet’s next contract could look like.

The Veteran Extension

The most beneficial extension scenario for Fred VanVleet would be to decline his player option for next season. This would allow him to add four years via an extension. If VanVleet opted in for next season, he’d only be able to add up to three years. He could wait, and extend after opting in, but that’s probably not something that’s on the table.

In a four-year extension by declining his option, here’s what VanVleet’s deal would look like:

• 2023-24: $25,500,000
• 2024-25: $27,540,000
• 2025-26: $29,580,000
• 2026-27: $31,620,000
• Total: four years, $114,240,000

That’s a bump of 20% over VanVleet’s current $21,250,000 salary with 8% raises on top of that.

This deal would give VanVleet an average annual value (AAV) of $28.56 million. That’s well below his max salary, but in range of what a realistic salary could be if VanVleet opted for free agency.

For reference, $25.5 million would make VanVleet the 14th highest paid point guard next season. He’d be right behind Jalen Brunson and just ahead of Mike Conley. That feels about right for VanVleet, as far as company goes. Non-All-Stars, but right at the top of that next tier down.

Given that company, the dearth of quality free agents next summer and the need to have a good point guard, we have to ask: could VanVleet do better by simply opting out and hitting the open market?

Re-signing with the Raptors as a free agent

Toronto’s leg-up on the competition to re-sign Fred VanVleet is that they can offer him a fifth year and they can offer him 8% raises vs being limited to four-years deals with 5% raises. The max VanVleet can get in free agency from Toronto looks like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the cap max, with 8% raises and the max of five years.

This deal would immediately vault VanVleet into third place in salary among all point guards, behind only veteran superstars Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard. He’d be ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young (in the second years of their Designated Rookie extensions) and on par with someone like Ja Morant (who seems destined to quality for a Designated Rookie extension).

If you blanch at that kind of money for VanVleet, don’t worry. You aren’t alone. He’s not getting a full max deal. We’re simply setting the high-end that he could sign for. History tells us VanVleet will land somewhere south of that $40.2 million number in first-year salary.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Fred VanVleet is going to fall somewhere between the top-five and top-10 on available free agent lists this summer. We’ve got him ranked fifth overall, and the players in front of him (James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green and Khris Middleton) are more likely to re-sign with their teams than they are to leave.

That could put VanVleet in play to be the best free agent to actually change teams this summer. We’ve already got reporting that the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic could be interested in acquiring the veteran point guard to lead their offenses.

Here’s the most a rival team could offer VanVleet:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer VanVleet is four years and 5% raises.

We’ve already covered where that would place VanVleet among his peers at his position next season. That’s probably not in play.

One other thing to be aware of: This is the most VanVleet could get via a sign-and-trade too. That’s important because of something we’re going to cover next.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

Extend-and-trade deals are rare, because they don’t really offer all that much for the player. They’re limited to a 5% bump in salary over their current salary and then adding one more year at an 8% bump. In Fred VanVleet’s case, here’s what it would look like for him in the new years of an extend-and-trade:

• 2023-24: $22,312,500
• 2024-25: $24,097,500

That’s over $46 million in new money, but that’s not really where VanVleet is at. He’d also make roughly $500,000 less in the first year of an extend-and-trade than he would by simply opting in with Toronto for next season.

It’s important to note that any team trading for VanVleet can’t extend him immediately either. They’d have to wait for six months to extend him for more than he could get via an extend-and-trade. At that point, it’s probably best for VanVleet to simply opt out and sign a new contract as a free agent.

The Opt-In-And-Trade

Given the reported interest in Fred VanVleet on the potential free agent market, we’re going to cover the idea of an opt-in-and-trade. For example, one of the teams mentioned as a potential landing spot for VanVleet is the Phoenix Suns. If Phoenix is convinced that Chris Paul doesn’t have it anymore (he’s slipped greatly this season), they could look to move on and replace him with VanVleet.

However, Phoenix won’t have the cap space to sign VanVleet outright. And doing a sign-and-trade would subject Phoenix to the hard cap. That makes it tricky to add much salary and to maintain roster flexibility.

Thus, we could see VanVleet opt in for next season under the auspices he’d be traded to Phoenix this summer. Because it would be a straight trade, the hard cap wouldn’t be triggered. And, after a six-month waiting period, Phoenix could do a four-year extension with VanVleet. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $22,824,074
• 2024-25: $27,388,889
• 2025-26: $29,580,000
• 2026-27: $31,771,111
• 2027-28: $33,962,222
• Total: five years, $145,526,296

That’s VanVleet opting in for next season, then extending (after a six-month waiting period) to add four new years. That would follow the Veteran Extension math of a 20% bump in first-year salary, followed by 8% raises on each new year.

As you can see, this could leave a good deal of money on the table over simply signing with a team outright as a free agent. The benefits here are that it allows the acquiring team to avoid becoming hard capped, while allowing VanVleet to still add several years of new money to his deal.

Summary

Fred VanVleet’s contract situation isn’t as cut and dry as many others. He’s not a clearcut max player, so there isn’t an obvious reason for him to play things out to free agency. But VanVleet is also not a deep-career veteran who should take an extension to simply add more years to his deal.

Instead, we have a player who is firmly in the middle. We can absolutely rule out an extend-and-trade. That wouldn’t give VanVleet the money he’s earned, nor the safety of adding multiple years.

That leaves the standard veteran extension or hitting free agency. Given the market, VanVleet should probably forgo an extension, opt out of his current deal and become an unrestricted free agent this summer. That gives him the most control, plus allows for the same long-term security, while adding the ability to make the most money possible.

When suggesting VanVleet should opt for free agency, we need to consider who projects to have cap space. Eight teams project to have in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. Of those teams, we can probably eliminate the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers as VanVleet suitors. They’ve got their guard positions covered for years to come.

The Los Angeles Lakers are interesting, but they are probably thinking bigger with their cap space. And if they aren’t thinking of adding a third star around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers should be splitting their cap space up to add much-needed depth.

That leaves the Houston Rockets (they have guards, but are rumored to have interest in reuniting with James Harden so…), Detroit Pistons (if they don’t see Cade Cunningham as a point guard, and they’ve also had VanVleet interest before), Orlando Magic (guard rotation is very much in flux), San Antonio Spurs (Tre Jones is the only point guard on the roster) and the Utah Jazz (whole roster is in flux) as cap space suitors.

Of that group, VanVleet can carve out a market. And that’s before we even get to teams that could do a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors.

Given that a market for VanVleet exists, it’s now about figuring out value. VanVleet will be 29 at the end of February, which means his next deal will cover his age-29 through age-32 seasons. He’s had some injury issues over the last four years, so he’s not exactly a young 29-year-old either.

Now, we have to combine that with some shooting percentages that have slipped to a dangerous level this season. VanVleet has always been an average finisher at the rim and more of a midrange and three-point specialist. Given his shot profile, shooting 40% overall, 37% on three-pointers wasn’t overly worrisome.

This season, VanVleet is under 40% overall and hitting just 33% of his shots from deep. That’s on a high volume of 8.6 three-point attempts per game too. If that’s a blip, whatever. If it isn’t, that’s a bad sign of things to come.

On the flip side, VanVleet remains a fairly rugged defender. He’s strong, so he can hold up against bigger players. He’s also a good rebounder for his position and a good playmaker. Ideally, VanVleet would be the guy who sets your offense and then spots up for open jumpers off others. A high-end organizer, if you will.

Having looked at all that, VanVleet is probably going to garner offers that pay him somewhat near, or above, $30 million in first-year salary. That would put VanVleet right in that Chris Paul/Kyle Lowry territory as veteran point guards who are just outside the top-10 in salary.

If a team were smart, given VanVleet’s age, injury history and potentially declining shooting, they’d frontload his deal. Give him more in Year 1 than what most think is fair, but the contract would then descend each year, to match any potential fall-off in play.

For the Raptors, that deal could look like:

• 2023-24: $33,600,000
• 2024-25: $30,912,000
• 2025-26: $28,224,000
• 2026-27: $25,536,000
• Total: four years, $118,272,000

That’s the max-allowable 8% declines from year to year.

For a rival team, they could offer a declining structure that looks like this:

• 2023-24: $32,000,000
• 2024-25: $30,400,000
• 2025-26: $28,800,000
• 2026-27: $27,200,000
• Total: four years, $118,400,000

That’s the max-allowable 5% declines each year.

In both scenarios, VanVleet gets roughly $118 million. In both scenarios, teams are protected in the early-30s years for VanVleet, in case his play falls way off. For reference, $26 million would be roughly 15% of a $170 million cap in 2026-27. And that could be low-balling where the cap will fall under a new CBA and with new media rights deals in place.

No matter where his next deal lands, Fred VanVleet should skip signing an extension right now. Unless he really wants to stay in Toronto long-term, and he might very well want to, he’s likely leaving money on the table if he forgoes becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bigger offers should await him this offseason, whether they are from the only NBA home he’s known, or elsewhere.

After trading Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, the prevailing wisdom around the Utah Jazz was that veterans like Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley and Rudy Gay would be next to go. Instead, the Jazz hung on to those veterans and have been better than expected halfway through the NBA regular season.

Clarkson, in particular, has had a really good year. He’s also become a leader for a somewhat young Utah roster. Clarkson’s play and leadership have brought enough to the team that reports are the Jazz are more likely to extend him than they are to trade him.

In his ninth NBA season, Clarkson is averaging a career-high 20.7 points per game, while playing the most minutes of his career. As a full-time starter for the first time since his sophomore season, Clarkson has maintained, or lifted, his shooting percentages, while also averaging career-bests in rebounds and assists.

Let’s take a look at what Clarkson could get by extending with the Jazz and what his next deal could look like if he were to push his decision to free agency.

The Veteran Extension

In the most beneficial veteran extension scenario, Jordan Clarkson would decline his player option for next season. That would allow Clarkson to add four new years to his deal. Clarkson could also opt in for next season, and add just three seasons. This is because contracts are limited to five total years (years remaining, plus new years) in a veteran extension.

In this scenario, we’ll look at Clarkson declining his 2023-24 option, in order to add four years.

• 2023-24: $16,008,000
• 2024-25: $17,288,640
• 2025-26: $18,569,280
• 2026-27: $19,849,920
• Total: four years, $71,715,840

That’s a 20% bump off of Clarkson’s $13.34 million salary for this season. He’d also be eligible for 8% raises, which is also reflected here.

For this season, a $16 million salary would rank 22nd among NBA shooting guards. That would see Clarkson nestled right between Norman Powell of the LA Clippers and Jazz teammate Malik Beasley.

If we flip it ahead one season, at $16 million, Clarkson would be 27th in the NBA among shooting guards. That’s right behind Beasley and just ahead of Kevin Huerter of the Sacramento Kings.

Not bad company for Clarkson in either spot. Powell, Beasley and Huerter are all solid score-first guards. Huerter is a regular starter, while Powell and Beasley both come off their bench for their teams.

But even in that company, could Clarkson do better in free agency?

Re-signing with the Jazz as a free agent

Utah has full Bird rights for Clarkson. That means that they could offer him up to the max. For posterities sake, here’s what that would look like for Clarkson as a nine years of service player:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the projected $134 million cap for 2023-24, with 8% raises tacked on.

Now, Jordan Clarkson isn’t getting that much in free agency. He’d be the third-highest paid shooting guard in the NBA at $40.2 million, behind only Bradley Beal, Paul George (who is also kind of a small forward) and Klay Thompson. Good as he is (and as overpaid as a couple of those guys may be), that’s not the kind of player Clarkson is.

So, while it’s nice to have a high-point salary as a high-end marker, that’s all it is.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Clarkson is an interesting spot as a potential unrestricted free agent. Two guard is probably the deepest position in free agency, but Clarkson is somewhere in the 2-to-7 range at his position. Overall, Clarkson is likely somewhere in the 10-to-20 range among all potential free agents.

Here’s the most a rival team could offer Clarkson:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer Clarkson is four years and 5% raises.

This deal serves as a nice comparison point for Clarkson’s potential extension with Utah. In theory, Clarkson would be leaving $100 million on the table. In reality, it’s more of another high-end marker that Clarkson won’t come anywhere close to.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

Even if we’re trying to tamp down expectations a bit for Jordan Clarkson on his next deal, doing an extend-and-trade or an extension after a trade aren’t in range for him. He’d only be able to add a 5% bump off his current $13.34 million salary in Year 1 and then 8% in Year 2. Either situation would look like this:

• 2023-24: $14,007,000
• 2024-25: $15,127,560

Adding $29.1 million isn’t bad, but that’s less money in Year 1 of this extension than Clarkson would make by simply picking up his player option.

And Clarkson can’t extend after a trade, because any extension that would go beyond what’s allowable in an extend in trade would have to wait for six months. That would take us past the opening of free agency, and Clarkson would be better off to just opt out and re-sign with any team that traded for him.

Summary

Jordan Clarkson is having a great season. If the Jazz record were a bit better, he’d join teammate Lauri Markkanen in garnering All-Star consideration. It’s easy to see why Utah is thinking extension vs trading Clarkson.

On the flip side, Clarkson is turning in a career-year in his age-30 season. His last two full seasons in Utah, Clarkson shot 42.2% overall and 33.3% on three-pointers. And on a contender, he’s probably a combo guard coming off the bench.

But let’s not pretend that good bench scorers don’t have value. Two of Clarkson’s best career comps are Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford. Williams had a 17-year career as primarily a bench scoring guard, while Crawford went for a whopping 20 years in that role. Having the remainder of his career play out like two of the preeminent sixth men in NBA history is a good goal for Clarkson.

Given his age, and factoring in that this is probably a career-year and not a new baseline, we can split the difference on what is fair for Clarkson’s next contract. And we’ll also factor in that he’s a valuable player as a reserve of a starter and that his scoring is a skill that gets players paid.

With all that we know, the Jazz would do well to simply extend Clarkson now. He’d get roughly $18 million AAV and that’s pretty fair value. Utah would do best to try to keep it to three years and $52 million, as opposed to four years and almost $72 million, but that’s just to protect against age-related regression.

However, for Clarkson, that’s probably right on the border of it being worth testing free agency. The free agent class this summer is weak enough that there is likely to be more money available than players to reasonably spend it on. Only James Harden, Kyrie Irving and maybe Khris Middleton are max contract guys this summer, and they are all more likely to re-sign where they are than to leave. That leaves a lot available for everyone else.

Clarkson is a primary player among that “everyone else” group. It’s not a stretch to see a team offering him a three- or four-year deal in the $20 million AAV range.

With that in mind, it’s probably best for Jordan Clarkson to finish this year strong, opt out and see what free agency has to offer. Utah loves Clarkson and he seems happy there. Whatever the Jazz can offer him in an extension should be there this summer, and Utah can beat any rival’s offer too. If Clarkson can leverage his way into a bit more salary in free agency, so much the better for him.

The NBA trade deadline is roughly a month away. As it stands right now, there are more buyers than sellers. The Play-In Tournament and flattened lottery odds have done a number on tanking on both ends of the spectrum. Having something to play for (making the Play-In Tournament) keeps more teams in the postseason race for longer. Not having to be egregiously bad keeps teams from completely bottoming out in the race for the most ping pong balls.

The result is that we have a trade market that can take a bit to develop. That said, there are a handful of teams that need to push in over the next month before the deadline. These teams make up sort of a forgotten “middle” of the NBA. Not necessarily in the standings, but on the cap sheet.

By now, you probably know that both the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs are sitting on about $27 million in cap space apiece. The Pacers look like a playoff team, while the Spurs are chasing ping pong balls. But both will be active at the trade deadline, almost because they have to be.

Both the Pacers and Spurs are about $15 million under the salary floor. They’ll take on some money either through trades, or in the case of the Pacers, by a renegotiation-and-extension with Myles Turner.

At the opposite end of the bank books, there are currently 10 teams over the luxury tax line with another five teams less than $2 million from the tax line. These teams range from the Golden State Warriors, Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers who are so far past the tax line they can barely see it, to the Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers and Miami Heat who are dancing around either side of the line.

We can also say with confidence that teams in the race for Victor Wembanyama shouldn’t be taking on too much by the trade deadline. The Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic should be active, but only for trades that help them collect talent or draft picks. There isn’t a big reason to take on salary, especially salary that extends beyond this season, as these teams should be cap space players this summer.

That leaves a group of six teams who are all firmly in the playoff mix, but aren’t really in danger of dipping into the luxury tax. They make up that forgotten “middle” when it comes to salary accounting: Not sitting on cap space, but not so expensive you can almost rattle off their tax bill from memory.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings should all be making a push and looking to add money to this year’s cap sheet.

The first reason is obvious. Each of these teams should be looking to strengthen their rosters for a playoff push. That’s simple enough.

The second reason is a bit more obtuse. It lies in a bit of cap sheet management that we can all “use it or lose it” flexibility. The Cavs, Grizzlies, Wolves, Pelicans, Knicks and Kings are all sitting on a decent chunk of spending power before they hit the tax line. This summer, things reset. For a few of these teams, they could find themselves having to make decisions for this offseason and beyond that involve going into the tax or not. But for right now, for this 2023 playoff run, each team has the ability to improve without pushing themselves into a financially burdensome spot. Let’s take a look.

Cleveland Cavaliers

2022-23 Tax Space: $2.5 million

The Cavs need another wing and another shooter. If that comes in the form of the same player, even better. They’re tighter to the tax line than anyone else here, but that $2.5 million should give them enough wiggle room to get what they need without tripping the tax. That might mean adding some money to next year’s books (Tim Hardaway Jr. anyone?), but that’s going to happen by virtue of re-signing Kevin Love and/or Caris LeVert anyway. Cleveland has a real chance to make noise in the playoffs for the first time without LeBron James. They have to take advantage.

Memphis Grizzlies

2022-23 Tax Space: $28.9 million

Memphis is really good. Like “could win the 2023 NBA Finals” good. They’ve got a star (Ja Morant), great secondary guys (Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr.), and a strong supporting cast. That said, the Grizzlies still have needs. They could really use another wing shooter. Maybe that’s Danny Green, if he can get healthy. But more likely, Green’s $10 million expiring contract could help fill that need. It might mean trading a couple of their kids (always tough because Memphis is the NBA’s premier draft-and-develop organization), but it’s worth it. Title windows sometimes open before you expect them to, but they snap shut quickly too. This roster is going to get really expensive soon. The Grizzlies have the tax space this year to add to their roster without coming close to tax. They should take advantage of that while they can. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

2022-23 Tax Space: $3.1 million

The Wolves are playing better. They’re finally figuring stuff out on both ends of the floor after making the all-in trade for Rudy Gobert. It’s because of that deal that Minnesota has to maximize when they can. Next season, they’ll have some free agents to re-sign (D’Angelo Russell, Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid) and the year after that, extensions will kick in for Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Barring further roster shuffling, the Timberwolves are going to be a very expensive team and soon. That makes this year the year to make another move. If they were still scuffling along down around 12th in the conference, we might feel differently. But Towns will be back soon, and Minnesota has some tradable contracts to stack together to fill holes. Another wing and another shooter, and the Wolves could make real noise in the playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans

2022-23 Tax Space: $3.6 million

The Pelicans are a hair behind the Grizzlies in the “they could win the title this year” mix. Most of that is related to injuries to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. When healthy, New Orleans is every bit as good as any team in the West. But it’s that “when healthy” qualifier that makes it necessary to upgrade the roster right now. $3.6 million isn’t a ton of tax space, but it’s enough to fill a hole. Another shooter with size could do wonders on this roster. Kyle Kuzma maybe? That’ll cost the Pelicans a pick (it’s time to move that swap with the Lakers, like right now!) and a young player or two. But that’s fine. The roster is a little overstuffed as is. A small consolidation move involving one or two of the kids, plus a pick, is the move to make.

New York Knicks

2022-23 Tax Space: $7.7 million

The Knicks are one of only a few teams that are top-10 in the NBA in both offensive and defensive rating. They’re a legitimately good team, even if they have a proclivity for looking awful in losses. New York also has plenty of non-rotation players that they can package together to make a major rotation upgrade. With that kind of salary-matching and nearly $8 million in wiggle room under the tax, the Knicks should be a player at the trade deadline. They’ve also got their core signed through next season, and still have plenty of space under next year’s tax. That means taking on long-term salary shouldn’t be an issue either.

Sacramento Kings

2022-23 Tax Space: $17.4 million

Light the beam! The Kings are good and they are fun. And they have the ability to make moves to make a playoff run more of a reality, as opposed to a dream. Note: that’s playoff run, not a Play-In Tournament run. Sacramento can put together a few midrange contracts belonging to non- and semi-rotation players (Richaun Holmes, Terence Davis, Alex Len) that can get them in the range of a $20 million player. Imagine the Kings with one more wing. Or another big that can play behind and with Domantas Sabonis. Or a guard with some size. Sacramento is fifth in the Western Conference right now. With the right move, they could maintain that, and the assured playoff spot. That would finally break their 16-year playoff drought. And the Kings can do it without even touching the luxury tax. Now is the time to really light that beam in Sacramento!

January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

We’ve already seen some movement around this deadline. The Boston Celtics traded Noah Vonleh to the San Antonio Spurs, who subsequently waived Vonleh. The Dallas Mavericks waived veteran guard Kemba Walker.

There are 27 players still in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

Atlanta Hawks

Vit Krejci - $1,563,518

This is a true 50-50 decision. The Hawks are close to the luxury tax line, but won’t save much by waiving Krejci. And they’re already sitting on one open roster spot. The guess here is that Krejci sticks.

Tyrese Martin - $1,017,781

Atlanta made a significant investment in Martin as a 2022 second-round pick. He’s not getting waived.

Boston Celtics

Justin Jackson - $1,836,090

When Boston traded away Noah Vonleh in a salary-clearing move, it boosted Jackson’s chances of sticking around. The Celtics aren’t exactly swimming in wing depth either. Jackson probably sticks, unless Boston really wants to play in the buyout market.

Luke Kornet - $2,133,278

Kornet has been a regular rotation player. The Celtics figure to play it safe with Rob Williams and Al Horford the rest of the regular season. Kornet isn’t going anywhere.

Brooklyn Nets

Markieff Morris - $1,836,000

The Nets just guaranteed Morris $1 million last month. He’s not going anywhere.

Edmond Sumner - $1,968,175

Sumner’s return to the court has been a fun story. He’s also played a rotation role at times. He’ll stick through the guarantee deadline.

Yuta Watanabe - $1,836,090

Watanabe has been one of the best bargains in the league, after earning a roster spot in training camp. He’ll be in Brooklyn for the rest of the season.

Charlotte Hornets

Dennis Smith Jr. - $1,836,090

When healthy, Smith has been a very solid backup point guard for Charlotte. He’s sticking around.

Chicago Bulls

No guarantee decisions

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lamar Stevens - $1,782,621

Stevens has been a rotation guy and sometimes starter for the Cavs. He’ll be staying in Cleveland.

Dallas Mavericks

No remaining guarantee decisions after waiving Kemba Walker

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

No guarantee decisions

Golden State Warriors

No guarantee decisions

Houston Rockets

No guarantee decisions

Indiana Pacers

Oshae Brissett - $1,846,738

Brissett is a regular rotation guy in Indiana and the only true four in their rotation. He’s not going anywhere.

James Johnson - $1,836,090

The Pacers are currently around $15 million under the salary floor. They’ll guarantee Johnson and if they need a roster spot, they’ll just eat his salary.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers will reportedly guarantee both Wenyen Gabriel ($1,878,720) and Austin Reaves ($1,5563,518). This makes sense as both are rotation guys. Reaves becomes a very interesting restricted free agent to monitor this coming offseason.

Memphis Grizzlies

Danny Green - $10,000,000

Green isn’t going to get waived. The real question is if Green will be part of a trade package, of if he can return from his torn ACL to give Memphis some wing depth.

Miami Heat

Haywood Highsmith - $1,752,638

Highsmith will stick around in Miami. He’s played regular minutes in Miami’s miniature and banged-up frontcourt.

Milwaukee Bucks

No guarantee decisions

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nathan Knight - $1,839,090

The Wolves like Knight as a depth player in their frontcourt. He’ll stick around for the rest of the season.

Jaylen Nowell - $1,930,681

This is a no-brainer. Nowell is Minnesota’s best reserve guard. He’s not getting waived. Nowell is also an interesting extension candidate for the Wolves.

Austin Rivers - $1,836,090

Rivers is a rotation regular for Chris Finch. He’ll continue to be one after the guarantee deadline passes on January 7.

New Orleans Pelicans

Jose Alvarado - $1,563,518

Arguably the biggest no-brainer on the list. Alvarado is on a steal of a deal for the Pels and isn’t going anywhere.

New York Knicks

Ryan Arcidiacono - $1,836,090

Arcidiacono is a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, so he’ll stick around. He’s also occasionally played when New York has dealt with backcourt injuries.

Svi Mykhailiuk - $1,836,090

Mykhailiuk won a roster spot during the preseason, but that hasn’t translated to anything further. Even when the Knicks have been down several wings, Mykhailiuk hasn’t played. This is a tough call, but the guess is the Knicks let him go.

Oklahoma City Thunder

No guarantee decisions

Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000

This is a quirky one. By not meeting games-played minimums, Isaac’s contract converted to partial and non-guaranteed years over its final three seasons. He’s still not back yet, but the Magic aren’t ready to move on either. He’ll make it through the rest of this year. Depending on how Isaac looks when he does play sets up an interesting decision for Orlando this summer.

Philadelphia 76ers

No guarantee decisions

Phoenix Suns

Jock Landale - $1,563,518

Landale seemed like he would be waived long ago, but he’s become Phoenix’s best backup big behind Deandre Ayton. He’ll stick with the Suns for the rest of the season.

Portland Trail Blazers

No guarantee decisions

Sacramento Kings

Matthew Dellavedova - $1,836,090

This one is tough. Mike Brown loves Dellavedova being the veteran guard with a still-young group. But the Kings might need a roster spot for flexibility during trade and buyout season. The guess is Dellavedova sticks, but could be thrown into a trade package, or waived if Sacramento makes an unbalanced trade.

Chima Moneke - $1,017,781

Moneke hasn’t done much for the Kings. He’s shuttled back and forth to the G League a lot. But Sacramento made a decent-sized salary commitment to him. He probably sticks around.

KZ Okpala - $1,902,133

Okpala is in a bit of a similar spot as Moneke, as far as salary-commitment goes. But Okpala sees minutes on a fairly regular basis too. He’ll stick in Sacramento.

San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Johnson - $1,245,164

Johnson will stay in San Antonio. The Spurs are $14.7 million under the salary floor and already have an open roster spot. With Devin Vassell out for a while after knee surgery, Johnson isn’t going to be waived.

Toronto Raptors

No guarantee decisions after waiving Justin Champagnie last month

Utah Jazz

No guarantee decisions

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

While most of the eyes around the NBA are on the February 9 trade deadline, there are a few dates that take precedence first. The first is Thursday, January 5, which is when teams can sign 10 Day contracts. A 10 Day contract is almost exactly what it sounds like. It’s a contract for the greater of 10 days or three games. It’s a temporary deal designed to give a team a bit of help for a short period.

There are a couple of rules to consider with 10 Day contracts. First, a team must have an open roster spot to sign the player. Unlike last season, when teams were regularly given additional hardship spots due to COVID-related absences, that hasn’t happened this year. Fingers crossed we don’t get there either!

The second rule with a 10 Day contract to be aware of is that teams are limited to signing the same player to only two 10 Day deals. After the second 10 Day is complete, if the team wants to keep that player, they must sign them for the remainder of the season.

Going back to roster spots, here are the teams who can currently sign a player to a 10 Day contract:

• Atlanta Hawks
• Charlotte Hornets
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Golden State Warriors
• LA Clippers
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Miami Heat
• Oklahoma City Thunder*
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Phoenix Suns
• Portland Trail Blazers
• Toronto Raptors

*Oklahoma City is eligible to apply for a hardship exception to add a roster spot, as they currently have four players dealing with long-term injuries.

Of the teams with an opening, Miami and Portland are close enough to avoiding the luxury tax, that they could forgo signing anyone for a while. The Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Sixers and Suns are all tax teams and may want to keep their bills down. Over the years, the advent of Two-Way deals have allowed teams to get the additional help they need while not adding to their salary or tax concerns via a 10 Day signing.

One last thing: NBA contract become fully guaranteed if players aren’t waived by Saturday, January 7. A handful of teams will open up roster spots by waiving players. With buyout season about two months away, those teams could fill those spots with 10 Day players.

With 10 Day season now open, here are some players to keep an eye on to sign a 10 Day deal.

(All G League stats courtesy of RealGM)

The NBA Veterans

It used to be that an NBA veteran of more than a few years would never sign a 10 Day. Those players wanted full contracts or nothing. In recent years, veterans looking to get back into the league have been far more willing to go the 10 Day route. It’s kind of a prove-it process for them to show they can still play.

Carmelo Anthony

It’s a bit odd to see a 19-year veteran leading off this list, but Anthony belongs here. When we last saw him play, Anthony averaged 13.3 points in 26 minutes per game off the Los Angeles Lakers bench. He could use a 10 Day or two to boost his odds of catching on for the rest of the season somewhere.

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins showed enough that he could have a backup center spot. He was effective with both the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks. The question with Cousins: Will he except a role where he doesn’t play much?

Isaiah Thomas

Last season, Thomas used a series of 10 Days to show he could still play before signing with the Charlotte Hornets for the rest of the season. Thomas stays in good shape and could help a team looking for scoring and point guard depth off the bench.

Hassan Whiteside

It’s a little shocking Whiteside hasn’t signed somewhere yet. He was very effective on both offense and defense with the Utah Jazz last season. He may need to take a prove-it deal to show he can do that for a team this season.

The G League Callups

Most 10 Day deals come as a result of callups from the G League. It’s important to note that unless a player is signed to a standard or Two-Way contract with an NBA team, they are a free agent in NBA terms. That means that even if a player is playing for an NBA team’s G League affiliate, they can be signed by any NBA team.

James Akinjo – Westchester Knicks

The point guard showed a bit at Summer League in limited minutes. Since then, Akinjo has popped in the G League. 9.2 assists per game and some good three-point shooting could earn Akinjo a callup when a team needs point guard depth.

Chris Chiozza – Long Island Nets

Chiozza is a veteran of the G League-to-NBA pipeline. He’s been there done that. The reason why is teams know he’ll produce if they add him. Chiozza plays decent defense, rebounds well for his size (5-foot-11) and is a high-end playmaker. His shooting holds him back, but he’s a callup candidate for playmaking depth.

Gary Clark – Mexico City Capitanes

Clark is another guy who has done the G League-to-NBA path a few times. He’s a solid defender that can hold his own against most wings and forwards. Clark is also showing consistent shooting. He’s worthy of another NBA shot.

Sharife Cooper – Cleveland Charge:

Cooper is the equivalent of a 4A guy in Major League Baseball. Too good for the minors, but not quite good enough to stick in the majors. Cooper is using his speed to score a non-NBA deal, league-leading 25.2 points per game in the G League. He’s also upped his playmaking and long-range shooting. He’s another point guard callup candidate.

Tyler Dorsey – Free Agent

Dorsey was with the Dallas Mavericks on a Two-Way deal until earlier this month. He’s got overseas offers, but Dorsey is apparently waiting things out with 10 Day season open in the NBA. He’s an overpowering scorer in the G League. If Dorsey can ever translate his G League and overseas shooting to the NBA, he’ll be a standard contract guy.

Kris Dunn – Capital City Go-Go

Credit to Dunn for taking a route a lot of “failed” lottery picks won’t take. Often, those players head overseas or disappear entirely. Dunn has been one of the best all-around players in the G League this season. He’s scoring, passing and defending at a high level. One scout told Spotrac that “Dunn is the best perimeter defender not playing in the NBA.” He’ll get a callup at some point.

Tyler Hall – Texas Legends

Hall was described to Spotrac as “the best shooter in the G League”. At 47.3% on 9.1 three-pointer attempts per game, that’s probably accurate. Hall doesn’t do a whole lot beyond shooting, but a one-skill player is still a callup candidate. Witness Matt Ryan a year ago. He’s turned his shooting into multiple NBA contracts. Hall could be next.

Shaq Harrison – South Bay Lakers

Harrison doesn’t do a lot of scoring, but he’s been great in all other facets of the game. His defense keeps getting him NBA opportunities, and it probably will again. If he could shoot (he’s been an inconsistent throughout his career), Harrison would already be on an NBA roster.

Jay Huff – South Bay Lakers

One scout who saw Huff at the G League Showcase told Spotrac: “He’s the best floor-spacing, rim-protecting prospect around that isn’t (Victor Wembanyama).” That’s high praise, but Huff is shooting 36.2% from deep this season, while blocking 3.2 shots a night. That’s a combo NBA teams prize. Huff is probably better than a couple of the deeper bench guys his own parent club the Los Angeles Lakers roll out on a nightly basis. Huff is also only 24 years old and screams classic late-bloomer big man.

Alize Johnson – Austin Spurs

Johnson is a four-year NBA vet and he had a stint with San Antonio already this season. He’s the best rebounder on this list. If the three-point shooting and improved finishing inside are real, Johnson could be a good bet to earn a full NBA deal.

Jontay Porter – Wisconsin Herd

It’s been a journey for Porter. He’s been on and off the Memphis Grizzlies roster as he recovered from multiple torn ACLs. He’s finally playing consistent minutes in the G League and producing. Like his brother Michael Jr. with the Nuggets, Porter has stretched out his range. He’s shooting 40% on 6.3 three-point attempts per game. And that’s while providing some rim protection and rebounding. At 23 years old, Porter is someone who should snag a real NBA opportunity.

Luka Samanic – Maine Celtics

A scout at the G League showcase told Spotrac “Samanic is finally figuring things out. He’s huge (6-foot-10, but players bigger) and is putting his skill together with his size.” Samanic has always flashed, but he’s now playing consistently good minutes. He’s still a questionable defender, but a team looking for some scoring in their frontcourt should call up the 22-year-old big man.

Jay Scrubb – Lakeland Magic

Unlike what his surname might imply, Scrubb can play. He’s one of the best scorers in the G League, getting his points with a nice mix of inside and outside play. He’s also rebounding more than before and starting to produce defensively sometimes too. At 22 years old and 6-foot-5, Scrubb should get a shot from a team looking for wing scoring.

Zavier Simpson – Lakeland Magic

Simpson had a cup of coffee last season with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but showed a lot in limited minutes. He’s built on that with an outstanding all-around G League season. Always an aggressive scorer, Simpson is showing he can run an offense and make plays for others too. He’s also been competitive on defense, despite his slight build. Teams looking for a point guard could do a lot worse than Simpson.

Gabe York – Fort Wayne Mad Ants

York has been on the NBA radar for years. He’s been good both in the G League and overseas. York is solid both on- and off-ball. He’s another 4A guy, and a bit older than others on this list. But if a team needs an immediate injection of energy, scoring and some defense, York should be their callup.

Christian Wood is putting together his best season in the NBA this year with the Dallas Mavericks. Sure, he scored more points and grabbed more rebounds in seasons with the Houston Rockets, but the combination of efficiency and production, along with improved defense, from Wood makes this season is his best one yet.

Wood opened the year coming off the Mavs bench, as they prioritized defense and screen-setting (and maybe keeping a soon-to-be-extension-eligible player’s numbers down a bit) at the center spot to start the season. But over the last seven games, Wood has started at the five and Dallas has taken off. The Mavericks have won five straight, following two close losses, with Wood as a starter.

During those seven games, Wood has averaged 18.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, two assists and a steal per game. Luka Doncic is driving the Mavs success, but Wood is more than just a passenger along for the ride.

This career-best production for Wood comes at a critical time. He’s in the final season of the three-year, $41 million deal he signed a part of a sign-and-trade to the Rockets from the Detroit Pistons. Wood recently became fully extension-eligible with Dallas. He could also wait to cash in as an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Let’s take a look at what Christian Wood’s next contract could look like.

The Veteran Extension

Because enough time has now passed since the trade that sent Wood from Houston to Dallas, he’s eligible to sign a full veteran extension with the Mavericks. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $17,180,951
• 2024-25: $18,555,427
• 2025-26: $19,929,903
• 2026-27: $21,304,379
• Total: four years, $76,970,660

That’s a 120% bump off of Wood’s current $14.3 million contract for this season in first-year salary. He can then get 8% raises off that new salary for the subsequent years.

$77 million over four years is an average annual value (AAV) of $19.25 million. For this season, that figure would rank at 69th in the NBA, nestled between Lonzo Ball ($19.5 million) and Caris LeVert ($18.8 million). Among centers, $19.25 million would be 10th in the NBA this season, behind Jarrett Allen ($20 million) and Clint Capela ($18.7 million). Both overall and among centers, that probably about where Wood ranks.

It’s not bad money by any means. But could Wood do better in free agency after a big close to the season?

Re-signing with the Mavericks as a free agent

Dallas has full Bird rights for Christian Wood. That means they can offer him a max deal if they want. That contract would look like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the projected $134 million cap for 2023-24, with 8% raises tacked on.

Even the most ardent Christian Wood fan would probably agree that’s too rich. An average salary of $46.6 million would make Wood the highest paid center in the league and the third highest paid player in the entire NBA this season.

That’s not happening.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Let’s say Christian Wood and the Mavericks are ready to part ways this summer. There are nine teams that currently project to have cap space this offseason. A handful could be in play for Wood’s services. Here’s the max an opposing team could offer Wood this summer:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer Wood is four years and 5% raises.

If you compare this deal to what Wood can extend for right now, it’s nearly $100 million more in total salary. But, even at a lesser figure than his max with Dallas, $43.2 million AAV is still too rich for Wood.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

This isn’t a realistic option for Christian Wood, and it’s part of the reason he hasn’t extended with Dallas yet. In an extend-and-trade, a player can only add two seasons to their deal and they can only get a 5% bump in first-year salary over their current salary. Here’s what that would look like for Wood:

• 2023-24: $15,033,332
• 2024-25: $16,235,999

$31.2 million over two seasons simply isn’t enough for a player of Wood’s value.

It’s also not realistic to expect Wood to be traded and then to extend for the full amount he can extend for with Dallas. If Wood was traded, he’d have to wait six months to extend for more than he can be offered as part of an extend-and-trade. That would take us to the start of free agency. Thus, any team trading for Christian Wood now would do so under the idea they could re-sign him in free agency.

It’s also fair to ask: Why would Dallas trade Wood? The Mavericks wouldn’t just give away their talented big man. But if they can use his contract, plus another one or two, to get that second star they’ve been looking for alongside Luka Doncic, Dallas would do it. The Mavs tend to be aggressive, as witnessed a season ago when they traded Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards to break up his max contract into two smaller, easier-traded ones.

Summary

Christian Wood’s value is a bit tricky to peg. At worst, Wood is an offense-leaning center, but a very good one. But he’s shown this season that he can be more than that. On a team with something to play for, Wood is playing better on the defensive end of the floor than he ever has.

He’s also able to slide over and play the four, alongside the right center. That’s a valuable skill, because it increases Wood’s versatility and doesn’t pigeon hole him lineup-wise.

So, what’s a five, who can play some four, that can get you 20 points per game with solid rebounding, improving passing and defense worth? The answer is somewhere around the $19.25 AAV that the Mavericks can offer Wood in an extension.

This season, 10 centers are making more than $20 million. That number climbs to 12 if you include Kristaps Porzingis and Kevin Love, who both log a lot of minutes at the five.

So, somewhere between $19 and $20 million doesn’t seem unreasonable for Christian Wood, on its face. The challenge then becomes what the free agent market will come to bear for him.

As we said earlier, nine teams project to have enough cap space to offer Wood at least what Dallas can offer him via a veteran extension. Of those nine teams, we can eliminate a few, right off the bat. The Houston Rockets and Detroit Pistons have been there, done that. The Orlando Magic are already overstuffed with big men.

That leaves a group that includes Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz. Indiana and San Antonio have their own free agent centers (Myles Turner and Jakob Poeltl, respectively) to deal with. Charlotte seems like they are going to use some of their cap flexibility to re-sign Miles Bridges, and they may not end up having space at all.

That leaves the Lakers, who are probably thinking bigger than Christian Wood in free agency, the Thunder and Jazz. At this point, the Jazz are a mystery box. Who knows what their plans are? Wood makes a lot of sense for the Thunder, but only if they are ready to start pushing things forward in terms of contending for a playoff spot.

There’s also the matter of the center position being the deepest of all of the positions in free agency. As mentioned, Myles Turner and Jakob Poeltl could be free agents this summer. They’ll likely be joined by Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Vucevic and Brook Lopez, along with several lower-priced veteran options.

It’s at this point that we should mention the possibility of a sign-and-trade for Wood and Dallas. Wood can’t get any more money via a sign-and-trade than he could get by signing with a team outright, but as a non-max player, that’s not really an issue. If there is a team willing to give Wood $20 million or more AAV, they can do it. A sign-and-trade would also help the capped-out Mavs return something of value, as opposed to losing Wood for nothing.

Putting it all together, the $77 million extension over four years is probably fair value for Christian Wood. He might be able to get more than by pushing things to free agency, but it won’t be significantly more. For a player who has made around $45 million in total salary in the first seven years of his career, it could be hard to pass up $19+ million per season.

The real deal may fall somewhere outside the four-year, $77 million extension. It’s been suggested that Wood won’t sign a four-year extension. Maybe he does a shorter-term deal, but still for the max he can extend for with Dallas. Two years and $35.7 million, or a two-plus-one deal of nearly $56 million are both reasonable too.

No matter what happens. Christian Wood is going to get a nice new contract. If it’s an extension with the Mavericks, don’t expect that to come until after the trade deadline. Dallas will exhaust all of their trade options first, as extending Wood for big money would come with a six-month trade restriction.

If a new contract comes in free agency, Wood will probably get north of $20 million AAV, either through a sign-and-trade or an outright signing with a cap space team. And that’s a contract that should hold its value for whatever length it spans for the talented, versatile big man.

The NBA trade deadline is roughly a month-and-a-half away. In some ways, that’s a long way off. In other ways, it’s coming up very rapidly. Such is life with the NBA’s calendar.

Trade deadline activity has been altered in recent years by the flattening of the lottery odds and the addition of the Play-In Tournament. On one end, teams don’t have to be horrifically bad to have the best lottery odds. They just need to be fairly bad. On the other end, more teams have a shot at the postseason, and those hopes run deeper into the season.

But the altering has been in types of trade, as opposed to volume of trades. 2022 trade deadline week saw 16 total trades. Some were traditional ones between buyers looking to contend and sellers with their eyes on the future. Some were teams rebalancing their rosters, regardless of where they stood in the standings. Others were strictly about the cap and lowering or avoiding the luxury tax.

No matter what, we’ll have action leading up to the deadline. With that in mind, here are the top-15 players to keep an eye on leading up to the trade deadline on February 9.

Jae Crowder (PHX) 

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $10.18M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $10,183,800 

Crowder is going to be traded. The Suns won’t let him languish away from the team, only to lose him for nothing this summer, out of spite. He’s also on a very easily movable $10.2 million salary. Finally, there are a ton of contenders who can use a wing defender with playoff experience who has shot it OK for stretches of his career. Phoenix will get something for Crowder, eventually.

John Collins (ATL)

Contract Status: 4 years, $102M through 2025-26 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $23,500,000 

We’re in what feels like year three or four of Collins rumors. Yet, Atlanta re-signed him to a five-year deal, just over a year ago. The problem? That deal still has four years and $102 million left on it through 2025-26. Collins is a good player, but his time in Atlanta seems to have run its course. With the Hawks needing to rebalance their cap sheet some, it feels like Collins may actually be on the move this year.

Eric Gordon (HOU)

Contract Status: 2 years, $40.5M though 2023-24 (2023-24 non-guaranteed)

2022-23 Salary: $19,568,360

If John Collins is in year three or four of trade rumors, this is year umpteen for Gordon. He’s on a pseudo-expiring deal at a very tradable $19.5 million. If Bojan Bogdanovic really is off the market, Gordon is probably the best scoring/shooting wing available. Even if his overall shooting has dipped a bit, Gordon is still someone who can help a contender in a playoff series.

James Wiseman (GSW)

Contract Status: 2 years, $21.7M through 2023-24; Rookie Scale contract

2022-23 Salary: $9,603,360

Let’s engage in a bit of rampant speculation, shall we? The Warriors had this grand plan to extend a 10-year contention window into a two-decade long window. As the original core group aged out, the young core would be ready to step up. Only…the original core is still going strong and the young core, led by Wiseman hasn’t panned out. Wiseman needs patience and minutes to figure it out in the NBA, neither of which Golden State can give him. His $9.6 million salary would bring in a helpful, win-now veteran to shore up the bench, and that’s why Wiseman might be on the move.

Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose and Cam Reddish (NYK)

Fournier Contract Status: 3 years, $37.86M through 2024-25 (includes 2024-25 Club Option)

Fournier 2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000

Rose Contract Status: 2 years, $30.12M through 2023-24 (includes 2022-24 Club Option)

Rose 2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000

Reddish Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $5.95M through 2022-23; Rookie Scale contract

Reddish 2022-23 Salary: $5,954,454

We’re lumping these three together, because it’s a good bet that at least two of them are getting traded by the deadline. Any combination of the three, along with a pick or two, could get the Knicks a major rotation upgrade. Given all three vets are so far out of the rotation that they might as well be in New Jersey, New York is going to do something here.

Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel (DET)

Burks Contract Status: 2 years, $20.5M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 Club Option)

Burks 2022-23 Salary: $10,012,800

Noel Contract Status: 2 years, $18.92M through 2023-24 (includes 2022-24 Club Option)

Noel 2022-23 Salary: $9,240,000

Another combo! The Pistons are bad. The Pistons are going to continue to be bad for at least the rest of this season. That’s fine. It happens. It makes sense that they want to keep Bojan Bogdanovic, because he fits moving forward. But a bad team doesn’t need Burks, who isn’t a part of the future, taking up guard/wing minutes when they could go to younger players. Noel is buried behind young bigs. Newly-extended GM Tory Weaver will get what he can for the two vets, as the rebuild continues in the Motor City.

Danny Green (MEM)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $10M through 2022-23 (non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 1/10/23)

2022-23 Salary: $10,000,000

This one is interesting, most because there isn’t a whole lot the Grizzlies need. They could use one more wing that can defend guards, just in case Desmond Bane keeps having toe/foot issues. Enter Green and his expiring $10 million salary. Green’s deal could allow Memphis to get a nice rotation player without having to trade any of the prized kids on their roster. Of course, if healthy enough, Green could just be that wing that the Grizzlies need himself.

Terrence Ross (ORL)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $11.5M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $11,500,000

Hey! We’ve hit the obligatory “Terrence Ross is available” section of the list. Ross is literally the last vet standing in Orlando. Everyone else has come and gone, but Ross remains. He’s probably not coming back next season, so it would behoove the Magic to get something, even second rounder or two, for Ross and his $11.5 million expiring deal.

Matisse Thybulle (PHI)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $4.38M through 2022-23; Rookie Scale contract

2022-23 Salary: $4,379,527

For a contender to upgrade their rotation, they have to part with someone. Philadelphia seems like they are a guy or two short of reaching the upper echelon of teams. Thybulle wasn’t extended, which is always a red flag about a player’s future with their team. This could be one of those rebalancing the rotation deals where Thybulle is sent out to a team that needs some perimeter defense, while the Sixers return a big that they can plug in behind Joel Embiid.

Kyle Kuzma (WAS)

Contract Status: 2 years, $26M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $13,000,000

We’ve hit the “These guys are good, but their teams aren’t and the player is set for free agency” section of the list. You can read all about Kuzma’s contract situation here. He’s going to opt out and he’s going to get paid this summer. If Washington isn’t certain that’s going to happen with them, the Wizards should be looking to trade Kuzma and his very tradable $13 million deal.

Nikola Vucevic (CHI)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $22M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $22,000,000

The Bulls are a mess. They can’t seem to find the right lineup combinations, in addition to struggling to get Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to mesh together. It doesn’t seem like either of the stars is going anywhere, so that leaves Vucevic as the big trade piece. If a contender winds up needing a center, and Chicago has no plans to re-sign Vucevic, he could be the best five on the market.

Jakob Poeltl (SAS)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $9.40M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $9,398,148

This one comes down to what the Spurs want to do long-term. If they see Poeltl as a big part of the next good team in San Antonio, they can keep him and re-sign him this summer. Poeltl won't extend, so it all comes down to how much the Spurs will pay to keep him in free agency. If there’s worry that he’ll leave anyway, like Kuzma and Washington, San Antonio has to make a move first.

Duncan Robinson (MIA)

Contract Status: 4 years, $74.35M through 2025-26 (includes 2025-26 Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $16,902,000

Robinson has been out of the Heat’s regular rotation for quite some time now. That, combined with his $16.9 million make Robinson a nice trade chip for a Miami team that is short on nice trade chips. The challenge? Robinson is owed somewhere between $47 and $57 million (pending guarantees) for the three seasons after this one. That’s a lot for a one-skill guy that isn’t playing. But the Heat always seem to find a way to make a deal, and Robinson is probably part of finding that way.

Robert Covington (LAC)

Contract Status: 2 years, $24M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $12,307,692

The Clippers won’t let adding money take them out of the mix for a trade. They’ll just keep paying the tax bill. Covington rarely plays for the Clippers anymore, and he’s owed $24 million through next season. The $12.3 million he’s owed this year could be the salary-matching LA needs to upgrade the rotation.

Seth Curry (BKN)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $8.50M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $8,496,653

This is more of a hunch than anything else. The Nets will likely be active, but they’re somewhat limited in the trades they can make. Their best salary-matching is attached to players they need in their rotation. Joe Harris could be moved, but no one seems to want to take on the $19.9 million he’s owed for next season. That leaves Curry. He’s coming off the bench, and his role can be covered by a combination of Harris, Patty Mills and Cam Thomas. If the Nets make a move, it feels like Curry and his $8.5 million expiring contract will be the way they do it.