The Phoenix Suns stole the spotlight early Thursday morning, acquiring All-NBA forward Kevin Durant from the Brooklyn Nets in a 5 player, 5 pick trade, vastly changing the landscape of both the East & West conferences.

Phoenix Acquires

Kevin Durant (F, 34)
Durant is in year one of a 4 year, $194.2M contract. He brings a $44.1M cap hit with him to the Suns for the remainder of 2022-23, $10M more than any other rostered Phoenix player. Before his injury, Durant was averaging 29.7 points, 5 assists, and 6 rebounds per game.

T.J. Warren (F, 29)
Warren brings a 1 year veteran minimum contract over to Phoenix, including a $1.83M cap hit for the remainder of the season. His usage has been cut in half this season as a role player for Brooklyn, but that may change with a reshuffled Suns’ lineup. He’s slated for unrestricted free agency this July.

Brooklyn Acquires

Mikal Bridges (F, 26)
Bridges is in year one of a 4 year, $90.9M contract, including a $21M cap hit for the 2022-23 season. He’s been posting career-highs across the board to date, to the tune of 17.2 points, 3.5 assists, and 4.3 boards per game, and should have no trouble maintaining his current 36+ minutes per game for Brooklyn.

Cam Johnson (F, 26)
Johnson is finishing off the final year of his rookie contract on a $5.8M cap hit, with restricted free agency ahead of him this summer. He reportedly turned down a 4 year, $68M extension offer from Phoenix last fall, but a knee injury has limited his action to just 17 games thus far since. His financial future will very much be defined by how his role & subsequent production can stabilize with Brooklyn over the next four months.

Jae Crowder (F, 32)
Crowder becomes the ghost player in this move, as he’s been voluntarily away from the Suns, awaiting a trade out of Phoenix. He’ll have a role in Brooklyn (if he wants one), as the Nets currently sit 29th in the league in rebounds and paint possession production. Crowder brings an expiring $10.1M cap hit with him to Brooklyn, with unrestricted free agency ahead of him this July.

Four Unprotected First Round Picks
Phoenix has agreed to send Brooklyn unprotected first round picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, & 2029, while also offering up a 1st round pick swap in 2028 (if applicable).

A four unprotected pick trade is unprecedented, though it aligns with the recent blockbuster moves we’ve seen in past months. Rudy Gobert’s move to Minnesota included 4 first round picks plus a pick swap, but only two of the four were unprotected. Donovan Mitchell’s move to Cleveland included 3 first round picks (all unprotected) plus two pick swaps.

The last trade on record that included four unprotected picks was Paul George's move from OKC to the Clippers. The Thunder acquired Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari a 2021 unprotected 1st, a 2022 unprotected 1st, a 2023 protected 1st, a 2023 swap, a 2024 unprotected 1st, a 2025 swap, and a 2026 unprotected 1st. 

The Trade Financials

On its surface, Brooklyn acquired $37,071,699 of cap for the 2022-23 season, but sent out $45,960,935 to Phoenix with this move, an $8.88M savings for the Nets.

But it’s the tax numbers that really pop out here:
In adding that $8.8M of salary, the Phoenix Suns’ projected tax bill for 2022-23 increased from $35.5M, to $67.6M. Their 2023-24 tax space dwindled down to a projected $2.5M.

Brooklyn on the other hand lowered its projected tax bill for this season down from $71.7M to $38.5M, and now sit with about $16.5M of tax space for the 2023-24 season.

2022-23 Odds

The Suns entered the trade deadline as +1900 odds to win the NBA Championship this season. That number has dropped to +4600 as of Thursday. Kevin Durant will do that.

The Nets entered the trade deadline as +750 odds to win the NBA Championship this season. That number has soared to +10,000 as of Thursday. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant will do that.

The unfortunately named, often confused, NFL buzz phrase finds itself at the forefront of many conversations this time of year, as roster decisions begin to take shape for the upcoming season. So what is dead cap? Any future, unpaid, guaranteed salary or bonus or any already paid signing bonus that hasn't yet been allocated to the salary cap becomes the responsibility of the team in the event of a release. With a trade, the future guarantees would simply transfer to the new team, leaving behind just the unallocated bonus cap as the current team's dead cap. Still lost? Hopefully the following helps a little...

Example Contract: Player A

• Total Contract: 5 years, $77.5 million
• Signing Bonus: $20 million
• Guaranteed at Signing: 2023 salary, 2024 salary

Out of the gate, this contract comes with $35M of dead cap - the total amount guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2023 base salary + 2024 base salary). Once the player completes his offseason workout program, that $100,000 bonus will be added to the dead cap total. If we look at the 2024 dead cap initially, it represents four years of signing bonus proration ($4M x 4), plus the not yet paid but fully guaranteed $10M base salary, or $26M total. 

Future Guaranteed Salary or Roster Bonuses

Any guaranteed base salary that has yet to be paid out is considered dead cap on the contract. Should the player be released, all guaranteed salary will accelerate and be treated as dead cap in the current season. If traded, any unpaid guaranteed salary will transfer to the new team.

Signing or Option Bonuses

When signing or option bonuses are paid, the cap hits for these prorate over the remainder of the contract (max 5 years). For instance, a $20M signing bonus paid on a 5 year contract would account for $4M of bonus cap in each of the contract’s years. If this said player is released prior to year 3 of the contract, that leaves $12M of cap from that bonus still unallocated, which in turn becomes dead cap. This works the same for an option bonus (generally paid out in year 2 of a contract).

The June 1st Dead Cap Rule

Pre June 1st

If a trade, release, or retirement is processed before June 1st in a given league year, ALL of the current & future dead cap associated with the contract is accelerated into the current season.

If Player A was released on March 20th prior to his 2nd season, all $26M of dead cap remaining on the contract (the $10M base salary + $16M of signing bonus cap) would accelerate into dead cap immediately. The team would take on a $26M dead cap hit, losing almost $12M in space.

Post June 1st

If a trade, release, or retirement is processed after June 1st in a given league year, the dead cap allocation splits between the current & following year as such:

Current Year Dead Cap
Any bonus proration in the current year of the contract + any unpaid guaranteed salary or roster bonus. Any cash owed to the player via base salary or roster bonus would immediately accelerate the current year’s dead cap.

Next Year Dead Cap
All of the remaining unallocated bonus dead cap for all future years of the contract.

For Example:
If Player A was cut on June 2nd prior to his 2nd season, the $26M of dead cap would split as:

Current Year: $4M of current year signing bonus proration + $10M guaranteed salary: $14M
Next Year: $12M of remaining future year signing bonus proration

The Post June 1st Designation

Per the terms of the current CBA, each team is now able to designate two players as “Post June 1st releases”. If Player A’s team knows they want to release him, but also want to benefit from the dead cap split after June 1st, they can designate him as such as soon as the league year begins in March. A few things to note here:

• The designating team must carry his entire cap hit for that current year on their books until 4PM ET June 1st. At that point, the transaction (release or retirement) can become official, and the Post June 1st dead cap split can occur. So in our Player A example, if he were designated as a Post 6/1 Release in March of 2024, his team would need to carry a $14.1M cap figure on their books until 6/1.
• Any bonuses or salary triggers that were set to happen prior to June 1st are no longer valid, as the contract has been unofficially ceased per the designation.
• This designation is only available for releases - not trades. It can unofficially be used in retirements as a player can announce his intent to retire in March, but the team can wait to process that designation until after June 2nd for dead cap purposes.
• The player is free to negotiate and sign elsewhere immediately upon the Post 6/1 Designation occurring. They do not need to wait until June 2nd.

The Post June 1st Cap Hit Work Around

One of the more popular recent trends is manipulate a contract prior to the start of a league year (or even immediately prior to a Post 6/1 Designation), in order to make life a little easier for a few months. What are we talking about?

Player A is going to be released with a Post June 1st Designation in March of 2025, but the team doesn’t feel great about carrying a $16.1M cap figure until June 1st just to allow for this to happen. They work with the player/agent to negotiate a “dummy restructure”, lowering his $12M base salary down to the league minimum (let’s assume $1.5M) prior to the release occurring. Now, the team can carry his contract at a $5.6M cap hit through June 1st, then process the release officially.

Why would the player agree to this? Any non-guaranteed salary on a contract that’s about to be ripped up is essentially funny money. The player is off to free agency in search of a new deal, so generally speaking, most player/agents are getting on board with helping the team out in situations like this.

Still lost? Additional or more specific questions? Hit us up @spotrac.

Shohei Ohtani (Angels, SP/DH, 28)

Career WAR: 24.8 (8.3/162)

Ohtani accepted a 1 year, $30M salary to avoid arbitration for the final time, setting up what could be the most anticipated season for a player heading toward free agency in MLB history. Spotrac took on the exercise of trying to properly value this unicorn player last June, coming up with multiple ways to slice this negotiation, maxing out in the 8 year, $440M range for better or worse. Many (rightfully) believe Ohtani will become MLB’s first $500M player - but for which franchise?

2023 PREDICTION: No extension. Ohtani hits the open market, signing a 10 year, $450M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Juan Soto (Padres, OF, 24)

Career WAR: 23.2 (6.1/162)

Soto and the Padres avoided arbitration on a $23M salary for the upcoming season. The 24-year-old still has one more trip through arbitration next offseason before hitting the open market. Despite a lackluster finish to 2022 upon his move to San Diego, Soto’s stock remains near the top of the game. He projects to a $33M per year deal in our system - though his 2023 salary places him more in the $38M range. Aaron Judge’s deal in NY is the obvious barometer here.

2023 PREDICTION: No extension. Soto will have the luxury of waiting to see what the Mets do with Pete Alonso, the Blue Jays do with Vlad Jr., and the world does with Shohei Ohtani next winter. He can use 2023 as a way to reestablish his greatness in our minds, and bank off of it this time next year, likely in the $450M range.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, 1B, 23)

Career WAR: 13.4 (4.3/162)

Guerrero Jr. has compiled 80 home runs and 208 RBIs in his past 320 games, developing into every bit the player Toronto wanted him to be. He’s also only 23 years old, with two more offseasons of arbitration ahead of him, set to earn $14.5M on his latest agreement with the Blue Jays. Can he keep his large physical frame in well enough shape to make this production last a full career? He’s a 12 year, $425M player in our system, all things included.

2023 PREDICTION: The Blue Jays strike early with Vlad, locking him into a 10 year, $350M deal.

Logan Webb (Giants, SP, 26)

Career WAR: 8.4 (3.6/162)

The Giants’ undisputed ace avoided his first arbitration filing for a $4.5M salary in 2023, putting him on track for a $22.5M valuation long-term, and $27M for his arbitration career. Will a 5 year, $72M extension work for both sides here (3 years, $27M through 2025, then 2 years, $45M for his first two years of free agency? This hands Webb a strong payout, and gets him back to the open market around age 30.

2023 PREDICTION: The Giants saved about $600M in contracts they were hoping to reel in this offseason. Webb gets a piece of that pie, locking in a 5 year, $60M contract to slightly push past Sandy Alcantara’s (value) deal in Miami.

Kyle Tucker (Astros, OF, 26)

Career WAR: 12.8 (3.1/162)

One of the most underrated players in the game should benefit financially from Houston moving on from Correa, Springer, etc in past years. The 26-year-old is amidst his first arbitration deliberations as we speak, projected to earn around $6M according to our valuation. This puts him on track for a $30M per year long-term extension.

2023 PREDICTION: The Astros read the room during the arbitration filings and understand they should just get ahead of this monster before it eats them alive. Rafael Devers’ 10 year, $314M contract hits about right here.

Pete Alonso (Mets, 1B, 28)

Career WAR: 14.2 (4.3/162)

Alonso continues to improve his overall resume, putting himself in serious contention for the next blockbuster contract in NY. The Mets avoided Arbitration 2 at a healthy $14.5M price point, putting him in line for a $36M per year long-term extension, which also aligns with our $37.1M valuation. Alonso has one more trip through arbitration next offseason before becoming free agent eligible after 2024.

2023 PREDICTION: Shouldn’t he just get the Correa offer? Maybe, but this scenario’s been too quiet to assume anything is in the works right now. However, Francisco Lindor’s contract was announced on Opening Day two years ago, so maybe Steve Cohen is just waiting for the stage to be set. 10 years, $350M should get this done.

Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals, SS, 22)

Career WAR: 0.8 (0.9/162)

The Royals appear poised to start locking in their young core (with a future Braves roster in mind). Witt should be the first benefactor of this thinking after a strong rookie campaign (31 doubles, 20 homers, 6 triples, 80 RBIs, 30 stolen bases). Ke’Bryan Hayes’ 8 year, $70M deal in Pittsburgh should be a fair baseline for Witt, who enters 2023 two years younger than Hayes was when he locked in his deal. Hayes will earn $41M through his final 5 years of team control, then $35M for the next 4 seasons. Braves’ OF Michael Harris will see $35M through his 5 year control span, then $67M for the next 5 seasons.

2023 PREDICTION: The Royals lock in Bobby Witt Jr. to a 6 year, $60M extension, plus 2 club options through 2030 that can max the deal out at $100M, while still allowing him to hit the open market at age 30.

Adley Rutschman (Orioles, C, 25)

Career WAR: 5.2 (7.5/162)

A do-it-all catcher already doing it all in one season? Just pay him whatever he asks for, Baltimore. The list of catchers currently on a pre-arbitration extension is zero, so we’re breaking new ground here no matter what the end result winds up being. Wander Franco’s 11 year, $182M extension in Tampa seems about the only comparable here, so why not?

2023 PREDICTION: The Orioles slow play this, hoping to confirm that they have a few young players ready to take that next step, formulating a true core to build around for years to come. This blockbuster extension comes next winter, but maybe at a cost.

Julio Urias (Dodgers, SP, 26)

Career WAR: 13.2 (3.7/162)

Urias remains one of the more underrated starters in the game, despite back to back Top 7 finishes for the NL Cy Young (3rd in 2022). He avoided his final year of arbitration on a $14.25M salary, placing him at a $24Mish valuation for a long-term extension. 6 years, $150M should be the starting point, but a trip to the open market next winter with multiple teams bidding him up could really drive this price north.

2023 PREDICTION: The Dodgers may be holding all of their chips (and tax dollars) for a run at Shohei Ohtani next offseason. Allowing Urias to hit the open market would be a mistake, but we bet they get something done here once the season starts, keeping him at the $14.25M price tag for 2023. 6 years, $150M sounds fair.

Aaron Nola (Phillies, SP, 29)

Career WAR: 29.6 (5.0/162)

After a few years that had many of us wondering if he was already in decline, Nola jumped back to the top of the mountain last year, compiling a 6.0 WAR, with 235 strikeouts, and a 125 ERA+ in 32 starts. He’s on an expiring contract for 2023, set to earn $16M, but there’s an easy path to him doubling that for the foreseeable future.

2023 PREDICTION: The Phillies lock in Nola to a 6 year, $160M extension through 2029, getting a little bit of a break on his tax salary for this clear window of contention.

Our annual NFL Roster Bubble piece offers a position-by-position look at players that enter the 2023 offseason with some form of question mark surrounding their roster status. Our look at players who may be in line for a trade, release, or even retirement in the coming weeks, including the financial ramifications surrounding these type of moves going forward.

QUARTERBACKS

Marcus Mariota (ATL, 29)

2023 Cap: $14,500,000

Mariota left the Falcons late in the year as he dealt with knee issues, but Atlanta was ready to hand the reins over to Desmond Ridder anyway. There’s a $3M roster bonus on his 2023 salary due March 19th, & a release prior to it will free up $12M of space ($2.5M of dead cap).

Aaron Rodgers (GB, 39)

2023 Cap: $34,875,000

Well the Packers certainly aren’t releasing him ($99.7M of dead cap), so this is clearly a conversation about a trade or retirement (ignoring the fact for now that he probably just ends up back in Green Bay for 1 more year?). We’ve detailed all of the options here, but the most plausible scenario is that Rodgers is traded at the start of the 2023 league year. This move means $40.3M of dead cap for the Packers in 2023 (an $8.69M cap loss), but a chance to load up on 2023 draft picks, $40.7M over 2024 cap savings, and $144M cash coming off of their future books. Rodgers would bring cap hits of $14.6M, $32.5M, $51.1M, & $45.2M to a new team if traded.

Quickly, there’s of course a scenario where a trade or retirement is processed after June 1st (though 2023 draft picks wouldn’t be involved). In this case, the Packers’ dead cap would split into $15.8M for 2023, $24.4M for 2024, offering $15.79M of savings on June 2nd.

Jordan Love (GB, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,940,189

Does Love have trade value? He’s entering Year 4 of his rookie deal, set to earn a fully guaranteed $2.3M against a $3.9M cap hit. Green Bay needs to decide on his $16Mish 5th year option for 2024 this May. A trade this March frees up $2.3M of cap, but it feels like it might be his time to take the reins.

Matt Ryan (IND, 37)

2023 Cap: $35,205,882

$12M of Ryan’s $19.2M 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed. Another $7.2M of it, plus a $10M roster bonus locks in on March 17th. The Colts are in a bit of a transition period, despite a handful of extra large contracts on the books. With $17.2M of cap space to be freed up, releasing Ryan before the March 17th vesting date might be their best path forward, even if it means paying him $12M cash on the way out the door (subject to offset language which could reduce this by season end).

Derek Carr (LV, 31)

2023 Cap: $34,875,000

Carr holds a full no-trade clause and a February 15th vesting date on $40.4M of future salary guarantee. The Raiders can release him prior to this date at just a $5.625M dead cap charge ($29.25M saved). A trade would offer the same financial ramifications, but it would be a handshake agreement until March 15th, when the new league year officially opens. His contract would carry cap hits of $33M (guaranteed), $42M ($7.5M guaranteed), & $41.3M (non-guaranteed) if traded. It seems more and more likely that an outright release is in the cards here.

Jameis Winston (NO, 29)

2023 Cap: $15,600,000

$5.8M of Winston’s 2023 salary fully guarantees March 17th. He missed time due to injury, then was passed up on in favor of Andy Dalton to finish out the 2022 season. It seems unlikely the cap-light Saints will stick with this contract, but an early release only frees up $4.4M of space ($11.2M dead cap). Would a pay cut that aligns with his guaranteed money be best for both?

Zach Wilson (NYJ, 23)

2023 Cap: $9,586,549

Wilson was outplayed by Mike White in 2022, putting his immediate future in question. He’s fully guaranteed at $9.3M over the next two seasons, so there’s no scenario where an outright release is business-friendly here, but packaging a draft pick with him to find a trade partner certainly seems plausible. A Pre June 1st trade represents a $1.8M cap loss, while a move after 6/2 opens up $3.85M of space.

Mitchell Trubisky (PIT, 28)

2023 Cap: $10,625,000

The Steelers likely saw enough positives from Kenny Pickett in 2022 to give him a full shake next season. Trubisky’s $10.625M cap seems too rich for a backup option, and Pittsburgh could use the $8M of space a release would open up.

Trey Lance (SF, 22)

2023 Cap: $9,301,439

Only because many will ask. Lance is fully guaranteed at $9M over the next two seasons, but his traded contract holds caps of $3.7M, $5.3M + a 5th year option. If the 49ers are offered a haul of picks, there’s a world where this is a win/win situation for both sides of a trade here. But it seems much more likely that both Lance and Brock Purdy are nursed back to full health, and are given a chance to compete for the 2023 QB1 job.

Tom Brady (TB, 45)

2023 Cap: $35,104,000

Technically Brady isn’t under contract for 2023, but we’re adding him because we expect him to be soon. If his retirement is officially official, the Bucs may ask Brady to sign a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.165M minimum contract for the upcoming season. This will allow Tampa Bay to delay filing his retirement papers until June 2nd, splitting up the $35.1M of dead cap into $10.776M for 2023, $24.3M for 2024.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN, 34)

2023 Cap: $36,600,000

Tannehill is entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $27M (the traded value). A Pre June 1st trade or release opens up $17.8M of space - but do the Titans have a replacement plan?

Carson Wentz (WSH, 30)

2023 Cap: $26,176,470

Wentz didn’t do much to sway the doubters back in his favor in his 8 games played last season. It seems a long shot that he’ll see any of the remaining 2 years, $53.4M, and with a $5M roster bonus due March 17th, we’ll likely see quick action. There’s no dead cap associated with this contract, so Washington will free up all $26.1M here.

RUNNING BACKS

Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL, 31)

2023 Cap: $5,500,000

Tyler Allgeier has deservedly taken a number of attempts away from him, so there’s a chance the Falcons look to get a little younger and cheaper for Patterson’s reduced role. There’s $1.75M to be saved on a Pre 6/1 move, $4.25M if it’s a Post 6/1 designation.

Gus Edwards (BAL, 27)

2023 Cap: $5,634,000

Edwards missed all of 2021 & half of 2022, though he managed to average nearly 5 yards per  carry when active last season. He’s a player of value when healthy, but it stands to reason that Baltimore could opt to free up the $4.3M of cap here.

Nyheim Hines (BUF, 26)

2023 Cap: $4,790,000

Hines certainly made his impact felt on the Bills’ special teams, but wasn’t much of a factor in their offensive schemes down the stretch. Will a non-guaranteed $4.79M salary be too rich to keep going forward? There’s no dead cap on the deal for Buffalo to deal with.

Joe Mixon (CIN, 26)

2023 Cap: $12,761,754

Mixon’s overall production dipped last season after a career-best 2021 campaign. Samaje Perine held his own in a relief role, but is slated for free agency next season. Will the Bengals look to bring him back at a respectable price and save on Mixon’s big deal? There’s $7.2M cap to be freed up Pre 6/1, $10M if processed after. Mixon would carry cap hits of $10.1M, $10.3M with him to a new team if a trade is the way forward.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, 27)

2023 Cap: $16,720,000

This was always the line of demarcation year in Elliott’s contract, so despite plenty of noise coming out of Dallas that there’s mutual interest in continuing, he’ll begin the offseason as a bubble candidate. Zeke holds $11.86M of dead cap against his $16.72M figure, so there’s $4.86M of space to open up with a Pre 6/1 move. That increases to $10.9M with a Post 6/1 trade or release.

Chase Edmonds (DEN, 26)

2023 Cap: $5,920,000

Edmonds averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 5 games with the Broncos after being acquired via Miami in the Bradley Chubb deal. He’s a complimentary piece to the puzzle, so a near $6M cap hit ($0 dead cap) may be too rich to keep around.

Aaron Jones (GB, 28)

2023 Cap: $20,020,000

Jones can still produce at a high level, but any 28-year-old running back entering a season at a $20M+ cap hit is contractually obligated to be on this list. His traded contract carries cap hits of $16M, $12M. If the Packers need to release him, there’s $10.44M of space to be freed up by doing so prior to a $7M March 17th roster bonus being paid out.

Jonathan Taylor (IND, 24)

2023 Cap: $5,116,482

We’ve started to hear rumblings about the possibility of the Colts finding a trade partner for JT as he enters a contract year. A proven performance escalator has increased his final year salary north of $4M, putting him on the books at a $5.1M cap charge. Would the draft pick haul + $4M of cap savings be enough to twist Indy’s arm here?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, 23)

2023 Cap: $3,443,228

The Chiefs need to decide on CEH’s 5th year option by May, but may also seek another team to take on his fully guaranteed $2M salary for 2023 in the process. Isiah Pacheco is clearly ready for a bigger role, but with Jerick McKinnon slated for free agency, keeping CEH in the fold through 2023 still has value for the Chiefs.

Brandon Bolden (LV, 33)

2023 Cap: $2,850,000

Bolden held down a limited role in 2022, & if the plan is to bring back Josh Jacobs on what could be an inflated franchise tag figure, freeing up the $2.2M of cap space here will come in handy.

Dalvin Cook (MIN, 27)

2023 Cap: $14,101,272

This was always going to be the line of demarcation for Cook’s contract, as the early guarantees have gone by the wayside and the cap hits far outpace the dead cap figures. $2M of 2023 salary does become fully guaranteed on March 17th, but a release prior to that can open up over $7.8M of cap space. If a trade is in the works, Cook will bring cap hits of $11M ($2M guaranteed), $12.5M (non-guaranteed), & $13.5M (non-guaranteed) along with him.

Leonard Fournette (TB, 28)

2023 Cap: $8,470,576

$2M of Fournette’s 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed, and another $2M locks in March 19th. If the Bucs are willing to pay that initial $2M to move on, they can open up $5.4M of cap space in the process.

Antonio Gibson (WSH, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,028,843

Gibson was thrust back into a bigger spotlight when Brian Robinson was forced to miss the start of the season due to injury. He’s rounding into a much more versatile back, catching nearly 50 balls in each of the past two seasons, but if Robinson is set to take over the reins full-time, the Commanders can open up $2.7M of cap space by moving on from Gibson.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins (ARI, 30)

2023 Cap: $30,750,000

Hopkins has hit the trade hot stove of late, though that’s cooled a bit of late. The deal holds $34.3M over the next two seasons, but none of it is guaranteed, and Hopkins is likely looking to reup to a price point that more aligns with Tyreek, Davante, etc… If the Cardinals aren’t willing to oblige, there’s $8.15M of cap to be freed up with a Pre 6/1 trade out of town.

Robbie Anderson (ARI, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,000,000

Anderson caught 7 passes for 76 yards in 10 games with the Cardinals after being traded over from the Panthers. Arizona can free up all $12M here.

Isaiah McKenzie (BUF, 27)

2023 Cap: $2,925,000

McKenzie’s targets seemed to lessen down the stretch, putting his $2.225M salary on notice. That’s the amount cap-strapped Buffalo can free up by moving on before his $250,000 roster bonus hits on March 17th.

Tyler Boyd (CIN, 28)

2023 Cap: $10,285,280

Boyd still produces plenty in the wide open Bengals’ offense, but with Burrow, Higgins, & Chase all in line for contract updates, he may simply be a victim of the cap/cash bubble here. His 1 year, $8.9M contract might be tradeable, but that’s the number Cincy can free up with a trade or release this offseason.

Tee Higgins (CIN, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,961,416

Higgins is a premier wide receiver, so putting him on the bubble list seems wrong in every fashion. But there’s a very plausible chance that he enters contract talks with the Bengals seeking far more than Cincy is willing to offer him in his current role. If negotiations break down, there’s at least an outside chance that the Bengals start to scout his trade value, assessing their best path forward. He’s a $20M WR in our system while in Ja’Marr Chase’s shadow - what would he be as a true WR1?

K.J. Hamler (DEN, 23)

2023 Cap: $2,270,905

Hamler’s hit the IR each of his first three NFL seasons. It seems likely that Denver simply cuts their losses here, freeing up $1.5M of much needed cap space in doing so.

Brandin Cooks (HOU, 29)

2023 Cap: $26,463,302

Cooks said his goodbyes at the trade deadline - but wasn’t traded. He said his goodbyes again after Week 18. Will he be given his ticket out of Houston? An outright release is out of the question ($34.2M dead cap, $18M cash). His traded contract comes with 2 years, $35M, $18M fully guaranteed, with cap hits of $18.5M, $16.5M respectively. The Texans would take on $16.2M of dead cap this year, freeing up $10.2M of space.

Keenan Allen (LAC, 30)

2023 Cap: $21,700,000

Allen missed 7 costly games last season, but was on pace for his usual 100+ catch, 1,000+ yard, 6+ TD campaign prior to his injury. His cap hit soars to $21.7M next year, then $25.8M in 2024. $1.5M of his 2023 salary is fully guaranteed, but it seems plausible that the Chargers could secure a trade partner ($19M, $23.1M) if they sought a move. A Pre 6/1 trade would open up $16.3M of cap space for LAC.

Adam Thielen (MIN, 32)

2023 Cap: $19,967,647

Thielen signed a revised deal last March to secure his roster spot for the 2022 campaign. We’re not so sure that happens again this time around (despite Thielen-like production once again last season). His entire $11,817,647 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th, so Minnesota will need to make a move quickly here. An outright release opens up $6.4M of cap space.

DeVante Parker (NE, 30)

2023 Cap: $6,206,250

Parker secured 31 catches for 539 yards and 3 TDs after being acquired from Miami last offseason. There’s $6.2M of cap to be freed up here if he’s traded or released, but for now, this one seems unlikely.

Kendrick Bourne (NE, 27)

2023 Cap: $6,872,539

Bourne was wildly under-utilized in 2022, so it’s fair to wonder if the addition of Bill O’Brien to run the show now could change that. There’s $5.4M to be freed up here with a move, but it seems like Bourne will be back in the fold for 2023.

Michael Thomas (NO, 29)

2023 Cap: $13,558,588

The Saints moved some numbers around prior to the 2022 season ending to set things up for March. It appears that the plan is to designate Thomas a Post 6/1 release, carry his $13.5M cap hit until then, then take on dead cap hits of $11.9M in 2023, and $14.1M in 2024, saving $1.5M against the upcoming cap (but not until June 2nd).

Kenny Golladay (NYG, 29)

2023 Cap: $21,400,000

Golladay has 43 catches & 1 TD in 26 games since joining the Giants (earning $36M for his efforts), and yet this story can’t totally be closed yet. A $4.5M roster bonus, due March 17th, is already fully guaranteed. Will the Giants find a trade partner to take this contract off of their hands ($18M cap hit this and next year)? If not, they may be paying a $4.5M parting gift to free up the roster spot, & $11.2M of cap space.

Corey Davis (NYJ, 28)

2023 Cap: $11,166,667

The quarterback play certainly hasn’t helped, but Davis hasn’t been able to separate himself much in two years with the Jets, despite a healthy $27M payout. None of his $10.5M for 2023 is guaranteed, and the Jets can open up all of it with a trade or outright release. Is he a piece in a potential Aaron Rodgers deal?

Braxton Berrios (NYJ, 28)

2023 Cap: $8,232,500

The Jets can’t cut ALL of their wide receivers, but a player who caught 18 balls last season and can free up $5.5M of cap space this offseason at least needs to be mentioned here. A new offensive coordinator might see Berrios’ usage differently.

Denzel Mims (NYJ, 25)

2023 Cap: $1,728,905

Mims has 42 catches and 0 TDs in 30 career games as a Jet. New York can open up $1.35M of cap space by moving on this March.

D'Wayne Eskridge (SEA, 25)

2023 Cap: $1,623,683

Eskridge just hasn’t found his footing in this Seattle offense, grabbing just 17 passes in 20 games. An early March trade/release frees up $778,773.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,987,245

The 49ers have plenty of questions to answer this offseason, and what to do with Aiyuk probably isn’t one of them - but it might be. There’s a potential “sell-high” move to be made here, cashing in on Aiyuk’s career-high 78 catches, 1,015 yards, and 8 TDs. Will a team like the Bears view him as a potentially untapped weapon? There’s $2.3M of cap space to be opened up by shipping Aiyuk out this offseason - but for now, it still seems unlikely.

Mike Evans (TB, 29)

2023 Cap: $23,698,500

Evans is entering a contract year. Are the Buccaneers in a position to pay a premium price on a 29-year-old wide receiver? Will Evans be willing to play out an expiring contract with Blaine Gabbert at the helm? There’s at least a chance this relationship begins to pull apart this offseason as Tampa Bay enters a different window. Moving on Pre 6/1 opens up only $2.3M of cap, while a trade after that can free up $14.5M of space.

Robert Woods (TEN, 30)

2023 Cap: $14,616,666

Woods’ return from injury saw him average 3 catches, 31 yards per game. It’s going to be tough to justify that kind of production against a near $15M cap figure next season. Tennessee can free up $12M of space with an early trade or release.

TIGHT ENDS

Gerald Everett (LAC, 28)

2023 Cap: $8,000,000

Everett has been rumored to be on the bubble despite having $1.5M of his 2023 salary already fully guaranteed. Will the Chargers offering him the parting gift to free up $5.5M of cap space?

Durham Smythe (MIA, 27)

2023 Cap: $4,250,000

There’s more to Smythe’s game than catching a few balls a week, and it’s not fair to devalue him in that manner, but the Dolphins have cap to free up this offseason, and a move here would open up $3.5M.

Noah Fant (SEA, 25)

2023 Cap: $6,850,000

Fant was a piece of the Russell Wilson trade, catching 50 balls and 4 TDs in 2022. He holds a fully guaranteed $6.85M 5th year option salary in 2023, so any kind of move out of Seattle would have to come via trade. Will Dissly appears to have a stronghold on the primary TE role right now, but the Seahawks may opt to offer Geno Smith as many weapons as possible next season, even at a bit of an overpay.

Cameron Brate (TB, 31)

2023 Cap: $4,985,000

Brate signed a restructured deal to remain in the fold for 2022, but the Bucs need cap space wherever they can find it right now. An outright release only frees up $2M, but every little bit helps here.

Logan Thomas (WSH, 31)

2023 Cap: $8,675,000

Injuries & inconsistencies haven’t allowed Thomas to recreate his breakout 2020 season since then, and his contract is now right side up in terms of dead cap. The Commanders can open up $5.175M of space by moving on, but with a new QB likely coming into the picture, his veteran experience might be deemed too important to walk away from.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

Rodney Hudson (ARI, C, 34)

2023 Cap: $4,810,000

Hudson appears to be on the way out in one way or another (release or retirement), as the Cardinals have already dropped his 2023 base salary down to a near minimum $2M. Arizona will carry his $4.8M cap hit through June 2nd, then take on dead hits of $1.76M in 2023, $3.52M in 2024, opening up $3M of space at that point.

Mitch Morse (BUF, C, 30)

2023 Cap: $11,160,000

Morse took a pay cut in 2021, then agreed to a restructured extension last March that locked him in through the 2022 season. $2.36M of his 2023 compensation fully guarantees on March 19th, but the Bills can open up $6.16M of space by moving on prior to that date.

Cody Whitehair (CHI, G, 30)

2023 Cap: $14,100,000

The Bears don’t need cap space this March, but they need to improve this roster immediately. Whitehair’s deal is a holdover from the previous regime, and it carries a non-guaranteed $20.15M over the next two seasons. Chicago can open up $5.8M of room if they decide to upgrade here.

Lucas Patrick (CHI, C, 29)

2023 Cap: $5,382,500

Patrick battled a toe injury that limited his 2022 season to just 7 games. Sam Mustipher filled in well in his absence, and is slated for restricted free agency this March. Moving on from Patrick opens up $3.9 of cap - enough to cover Mustipher’s tender.

La'el Collins (CIN, RT, 30)

2023 Cap: $9,384,306

If the Bengals plan is to continue to build this O-Line up through the draft, Collins could be a one-and-done candidate in Cincy. A Pre June 1st release frees up $6M of much needed cap space, but can Cincinnati afford to be thin in the trenches?

Tyron Smith (DAL, OT, 32)

2023 Cap: $17,605,000

Smith enters a contract year, set to earn $13.6M against a $17.6M hit. He was moved to the right side of the line after returning from injury, making way for Tyler Smith (no relation) to take on the blindside role. There’s $9.5M of cap space to open up here if the Cowboys decide to move on, but it still seems like a big if right now.

Graham Glasgow (DEN, G, 30)

2023 Cap: $14,000,000

Glasgow is entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn $11M against a $14M hit. There’s a $1M roster bonus due March 19th, and Denver can open up all $11M by moving on.

Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET, G, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,448,194

Vatai has missed action each of the past three seasons, including all of 2022. The Lions can open up $6.5M with a Pre 6/1 release, though Evan Brown his replacement this season is also slated for free agency this March.

David Bakhtiari (GB, OT, 31)

2023 Cap: $28,789,035

Bakhtiari has seen action in just 24 games over the past 3 seasons, but can still hold his own when healthy. There’s a $9.5M roster bonus due March 19th, and a Pre 6/1 release only frees up $5.6M of cap, but he still sits squarely on the bubble for now.

A.J. Cann (HOU, G, 31)

2023 Cap: $6,220,588

With a new QB coming to town, the Texans probably won’t deplete their offensive line too much, but with $5.2M of cap to be freed up here, there’s at least a chance Houston flips this contract for a rookie deal.

Matt Feiler (LAC,G, 30)

2023 Cap: $8,500,000

Feiler’s overall production dipped in 2022, putting his $6.5M salary on notice (all of which will clear with a release). There’s a good chance the Chargers will spend multiple draft picks on shoring up the O-Line as they prepare to back the Brinks truck up for QB Justin Herbert.

Andre James (LV, C, 25)

2023 Cap: $6,980,000

James enters a contract year in 2023, having started 13 games for the Raiders last season. Vegas can open up $5M of cap by moving on, paving the way for 2022 3rd rounder Dylan Parham to take over the reins.

Trenton Brown (NE, OT, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,161,760

Brown’s cap hit jumps up over $8M next season, with only $1.25M of dead cap pinned against it. He started 14 games for New England last season, so an outright release doesn’t seem likely, despite $11M of cap space to be opened up. We’d bet on a restructured contract with a 1-year guarantee that lowers the 2023 hit.

Andrus Peat (NO, G, 29)

2023 Cap: $18,371,000

Back-to-back restructures keep this contract difficult to move off from, but it seems a foregone conclusion anyway. A Pre 6/1 release only frees up $1.3M of cap space, while a Post 6/1 designation would open up $11.825M. The Saints have had players agree to base salary pay cuts in order to help facilitate a Post 6/1 move, and this feels like one of those situations. Dropping Peat’s deal down to the minimum for 2023 lowers his cap hit to $7.71M, a much more tenable number to have to carry through June 1st.

Duane Brown (NYJ, OT, 37)

2023 Cap: $11,281,882

Brown’s cap hit increases over $7.6M for 2023. He struggled in pass protection this past season, but with a potential splash veteran QB signing coming in, New York may opt for experience on their O-Line. A Pre 6/1 release frees up $5M, while a Post 6/1 designation makes it $9.7M opened up in June.

Gabe Jackson (SEA, G, 31)

2023 Cap: $11,262,223

Jackson seems like the odd man out on an offensive line that really progressed in 2022. Moving on from the 31-year-old can open up $6.5M of cap space for Seattle.

Donovan Smith (TB, OT, 29)

2023 Cap: $17,900,000

The Bucs will face some pain this offseason as they morph into life without TB12. Releasing your starting left tackle isn’t an ideal place to start, but the $9.95M of space to be had is certainly much needed. The 29 year old is entering a contract year, set to earn $15.25M cash in 2023.

Shaq Mason (TB, G, 29)

2023 Cap: $9,517,168

Mason played well enough to stick for 2023, but the Buccaneers are going to have to make moves they don’t necessarily want to make to get cap neutral this March. This could mean an extension for the 29-year-old to keep his prorated dead cap spread out, and keep him in the fold for what could be a Blaine Gabbert run offense. If he’s released, a Pre 6/1 move opens up $5.2M of space.

Taylor Lewan (TEN, OT, 31)

2023 Cap: $14,841,000

Lewan enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $14.8M. All of it can come off of the books with an outright release or trade. 

Chase Roullier (WSH, C, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,420,000

Roullier has played just 10 games in the past 2 seasons, putting his $12M+ cap hit on notice. A Pre June 1st release opens up $4.32M of space, while a Post 6/1 move frees up $8.3M.

INTERIOR DEFENDERS

Ed Oliver (BUF, 26)

2023 Cap: $10,753,000

Oliver enters his fully guaranteed 5th year option season and was very much in consideration for a long-term extension this time last year. But career low production in 2022 leaves his future in Buffalo very much in question. If the Bills can locate a trade partner, look for them to make the move. All $10.753M of his salary would transfer to the new team.

Tim Settle (BUF, 25)

2023 Cap: $4,945,000

Settle saw action in 36% of the snaps he was available to take, offering up 19 tackles, 1 sack, & 1 forced fumble during that time. His $4.9M cap figure for 2023 isn’t dauting, but the Bills need cap space, and there’s $2.2M to be freed up here prior to March 19th, when $1.9M of his salary fully guarantees.

Michael Brockers (DET, 32)

2023 Cap: $13,975,000

Brockers enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $10M in 2023. He missed most of 2022 with injury, compiling depth production at best in the 6 games he was active for. The Lions will pick up $10M of cap savings by moving in this March.

Roy Robertson-Harris (JAX, 29)

2023 Cap: $10,133,334

Robertson-Harris enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $7.8M. He’s been consistently solid for the better part of 6 NFL seasons, but with a cap hit north of $10M on the books, and cap-strapped Jacksonville able to free up $7.8M of space by moving on, he has to be considered a bubble player for now.

Fletcher Cox (PHI, 32)

2023 Cap: $10,000,000

While he’s “technically” under contract for 2023, his $1.5M cash salary is a dummy year that allows Philly to carry his contract through June 1st, splitting his dead cap up into $2.5M for 2023, $7.5M for 2024. That of course is under the assumption that Cox and the Eagles don’t come to agreement on an extension in the coming week.

Quinton Jefferson (SEA, 29)

2023 Cap: $6,485,000

One of Jefferson or Shelby Harris probably falls off of this roster for cap purposes as the Seahawks look to get younger and faster on their D-Line. Both players had respectable 2022 campaigns, and with Jefferson on an expiring contract that carries $4.2M of cash/cap to be moved, he makes the list as a potential trade target. Especially as he’s spent time on the interior in 3-4s and on the edge in 4-3 defenses.

EDGE DEFENDERS

Dennis Gardeck (ARI, OLB, 28)

2023 Cap: $4,216,666

Gardeck and Markus Golden enter the offseason in similar situations with near identical finances attached to them. Moving on from Golden opens up $3M of cap, while releasing Gardeck frees up $2.8M. 

A.J. Epenesa (BUF, DE, 24)

2023 Cap: $1,870,050

Epenesa hasn’t rounded into the player the Bills were hoping he’d become, and he enters a contract season in 2023. There’s only $1.4M of cap to be opened up here, but with Buffalo’s current financial situation, every little bit helps.

Romeo Okwara (DET, DE, 27)

2023 Cap: $14,500,000

He’s seen action in just 9 games since 2021, making another $14.5M cap hit tough to justify. Detroit can open up $7.5M of cap space with an early March release.

Mario Addison (HOU, DE, 35)

2023 Cap: $4,423,521

While the cap is certainly feasible, Addison finds himself on a team very much hitting the reset button. With $3.4M to be freed up, he may be looking to latch on with a contender in the next few weeks.

Jerry Hughes (HOU, DE, 34)

2023 Cap: $6,250,000

The 34-year-old posted 9 sacks, 33 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and an interception in 2022, proving he’s still a legitimate asset, even in the toughest of situations. There’s a world where a team values his $5M non-guaranteed salary in a trade market this offseason, and the Texans should be listening.

Frank Clark (KC, DE, 29)

2023 Cap: $30,175,000

Clark signed a restructured extension this past March to lower his cap hit and stay in the fold. He responded with a Frank Clark type season (5 sacks, 40 tackles), but now sits with a $30.1M cap hit for the upcoming campaign. With Chris Jones poised for a new deal, can the Chiefs extend Clark again? Will they bite the bullet on a restructure that pushes dead cap down the line? This is a situation to watch - and many teams will be.

Chandler Jones (LV, DE, 32)

2023 Cap: $19,312,000

This one seems pretty unlikely, as the only way out of town for Jones is a trade, and he’s coming off one of his poorer career seasons. There’s an $8.5M roster bonus for March already fully guaranteed, and he carries a 2 year, $34M contract ($17M/$17M) with him to a new team if traded, freeing up $9.7M for Las Vegas.

Leonard Williams (NYG, DE, 28)

2023 Cap: $32,260,000

After 2 extremely productive seasons in 2020-2021, Williams’ production dipped off slightly - mostly stemming from 5 weeks missed. There are a few reasons Williams finds himself on this list, and his inability to make a difference on the field isn’t one of them. 1) The Giants have a LOT of mouths to feed offensively. 2) Dexter Lawrence is in his extension window. 3) Williams is on an expiring contract with a loaded cap figure. It just may be the wrong time to extend Williams on this roster, making him a very attractive trade candidate this March. He holds a 1 year, $18M (non-guaranteed) contract if moved, freeing up over $12M of cap for the Giants.

Carl Lawson (NYJ, DE, 27)

2023 Cap: $15,333,334

Lawson has faced a tough road injury wise since joining the Jets back in 2021. With all of the guaranteed money now off the books, and $15M to be saved on his 2023 cap hit, it stands to reason New York will move off this deal, even if the intention is to bring him back on something fresher.

Bud Dupree (TEN, OLB, 29)

2023 Cap: $20,200,000

The Titans have work to do on their cap table, and Dupree hasn’t approached living up to the $34M he’s earned from them over the past two seasons, but $1.25M of his 2023 salary is fully guaranteed right now. It’s rare to see teams hand out cash payments to players they release, but it certainly happens. If that becomes the case here, a Pre 6/1 cut can open up $10.6M of much needed cap space.

LINEBACKERS

Malik Harrison (BAL, 25)

2023 Cap: $1.3M

The 3rd rounder back in 2020 has seen limited action in 3 seasons, but - as Ravens’ linebackers tend to do - has also made a name for himself in that span. With Roquan Smith paid, and Patrick Queen trending in that direction soon, finding a trade partner for Harrison in the final year of his rookie deal holds some logic.

Eric Kendricks (MIN, 31)

2023 Cap: $11,430,000

He can still fill up a stat-line with the best of them, but the Vikings need to begin the process of getting younger (and subsequently cheaper) especially on the defensive side of the ball. Kendricks’ expiring contract can open up $9.5M of much needed cap space for Minnesota, who may address this position fairly early in the April draft.

C.J. Mosley (NYJ, 30)

2023 Cap: $21,476,000

Mosley’s contract gets right side up for the first time this offseason, at least mildly putting him in consideration for being moved on from. The Jets can free up $6.5M with an early outright release, but doing so will leave a large hole in the middle of their defense. A base salary conversation can reduce the cap hit by $12.6M.

Myles Jack (PIT, 27)

2023 Cap: $11,250,000

The Steelers took a flier on Jack that included $8M last season, and $8M (non-guaranteed) for 2023. With Robert Spillane & Devin Bush headed to free agency, the cupboards are already pretty bare in the center of the Steelers’ defense. But getting out of this deal and starting over everywhere still makes sense.

Zach Cunningham (TEN, 28)

2023 Cap: $13,426,466

Cunningham missed 11 weeks due to injury, putting his $13M cap hit now on notice. Tennessee has cap to clear, and possible a roster to start turning over as well, meaning positions like this will probably be passed over for rental options. Moving off of this contract opens up almost $9M of space for the Titans.

CORNERBACKS

Shaquill Griffin (JAX, 28)

2023 Cap: $17,147,055

The Jags still have work to do to tinker with this roster and step to the next level in the AFC. That takes cap space, and Jacksonville is currently in the red in that regard. Moving on from Griffin’s expiring contract opens up $13.1M of space.

Jalen Ramsey (LAR, 28)

2023 Cap: $25,200,000

The Rams haven’t been shy about moving on from players a year earlier than we expect them to. Will Ramsey be the next version of this tactic? $12.5M of his 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed, but LAR can free up $5.6M of cap space with an early trade. For now, this seems highly unlikely.

Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT, 27)

2023 Cap: $5,482,500

Witherspoon missed most of 2022 due to injury, offering Cam Sutton & Levi Wallace a chance to collectively take that space. Sutton is slated for free agency, so it stands to reason that the Steelers would roll with a Wallace/Witherspoon combo next year, but there’s $4M to be saved here if not.

William Jackson (PIT, 30)

2023 Cap: $12,176,471

Acquired from Washington for a late round pick swap, a back injury kept Jackson from showing with Pittsburgh in 2022. He holds a non-guaranteed $12.1M next season including a $2.5M roster bonus due March 17th. 

Byron Jones (MIA, 31)

2023 Cap: $18,351,000

The guarantees fall off of this massive contract for the first time this offseason. With Xavien Howard now under contract, it feels like the Dolphins are at a point where they can move off of this deal, despite its minimal immediate savings ($3.5M).

SAFETIES

Chuck Clark (BAL, 27)

2023 Cap: $6,268,333

Clark enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $3.64M. With Kyle Hamilton waiting in the wings, his status for 2023 remains up in the air. The Ravens can free up $3.64M with a release or trade.

John Johnson (CLE, 27)

2023 Cap: $13,500,000

Johnson was a strong contributor in 16 2022 games (especially against the run) but with a fresh set of eyes taking over the Browns’ D, it stands to reason that a few notable pieces will be turned over. A Post 6/1 release can open up $9.75M of space for Cleveland (only $900,000 if Pre 6/1).

Eric Murray (HOU, 29)

2023 Cap: $5,357,500

Murray finished the season in a depth role for Houston, putting his $5.3M hit on notice. The Texans can open up $4M of space by moving on here.

Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX, 29)

2023 Cap: $10,250,000

Jenkins holds value on a young Jags roster, but his coverage numbers left plenty to be desired. His cap figure jumps north of $10M next season, and there’s $6.25M of cap space to be freed up by moving on Pre 6/1. 

Harrison Smith (MIN, 34)

2023 Cap: $19,127,636

At first glance, a near $20M cap hit for a 34 year old defensive back is usually a slam dunk roster cut. But Smith played some of the best ball of his career to finish out 2022, and his eventual replacement Lewis Cine is recovering from a serious leg injury. A Pre 6/1 release frees up $7.8M of cap space, while a Post 6/1 designation would eventually open up $15.2M. However a base salary restructure, maybe the most likely outcome here, can open up $10.8M of cap space, keeping him in the fold for 2023.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Cairo Santos (CHI, K, 32)

2023 Cap: $4,500,000

Santos finished 2022 with a 91% hit rate on field goals, but he missed 5 PATs last season, putting his $4.5M cap figure in question. The Bears aren’t in desperate need of cap space, but there’s $3M to be freed up here.

Harrison Butker (KC, K, 27)

2023 Cap: $5,105,266

Butker had an off year by his standards, making only 75% of his field goals, and 92% of his PATs in 2022, by far his worst output to date. The Chiefs will have cap decisions to make this March, and there’s nearly $3M of space to be opened up with a Pre 6/1 move here.

Jason Sanders (MIA, K, 27)

2023 Cap: $3,775,000

Sanders made less than 80% of his field goal attempts while going 41/44 on PATs last season. He’s now had back to back inconsistent years from longer range, putting his $3.775M salary on notice.

Ryan Succop (TB, K, 36)

2023 Cap: $4,500,000

Succop made 81% of his field goals (31/38) in 2022, but hit 24 out of 25 PATs last season. In a normal offseason we look right past his contract, but with Tampa in a bit of cap mess entering March, the $3.75M of space to be opened up has to be under consideration.

Joey Slye (WSH, K, 26)

2023 Cap: 2,350,000

Slye converted 83% of his field goals and 85% of his PATs in 2022. His $2.35M cap hit for 2023 isn’t daunting, but if the Commanders can find a replacement, they’ll certainly opt for the $1.85M in space.

The NBA announced suspensions for 3 players stemming from the on-court altercations during Friday night’s Magic, Timberwolves game.

Magic Center Mo Bamba will miss the next four games forfeiting $284,138 in 2022-23 salary. The 24-year-old holds a non-guaranteed $10.3M salary through next season, and is a fringe trade candidate this coming week.The 4 game suspension is second only to Kyrie Irving’s 8 games missed due to his promotion of anti semitic ideals.

Timberwolves’ Guard Austin Rivers will miss three games, forfeiting $60,121 in 2022-23 salary. He’s on an expiring contract with Minnesota, set for unrestricted free agency this July.

Magic Guard Jalen Suggs has been suspended one game, forfeiting $47,740 in 2022-23 salary. The 21 year old holds a guaranteed $7.25M salary next season, then a club option for 2024-25.

Additionally, Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels was tagged with a $20,000 fine for his role.

All combined, the Orlando Magic free up $165,939 of tax this season, while the T-Wolves free up around $30,000.

Track all NBA Fines & Suspension infractions here.

Now that Tom Brady has officially-officially retired from the NFL, we’ll dive back into a 23 year career that saw 12 contracts, and an all-time tops $333M earned on the field.

We’ll use this space to accomplish two matters at hand. First, a dive into each of the 12 contracts, including notable notes, average salary rankings, his Win-Loss record & any Super Bowl appearances earned while on the deal.

Then, we’ll do some cringy math work to answer the age-old question: Just how much did he leave on the table?

Tom Brady’s Career Contract Analysis

The Rookie Contract

Tom Brady started his illustrious career at the bottom, signing a 3 year, $866,500 rookie contract with the Patriots back in 2000. The deal included a $38,500 signing bonus & minimum salaries of $193,000, $298,000, & $375,000. 

Brady’s AAV: $288,833
‘06 Rookie QB High AAV: $4.6M (Chad Pennington)
Record on Contract: 11-3
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

Brady actually did pretty well with this initial contract. 5 Quarterbacks were selected in the 6th round of the 2000 draft with Brady scoring the 2nd highest value and bonus of the bunch.

• #168 Marc Bulger (2 years, $543,000, $28,000 bonus)
• #183 Spergon Wynn (4 years, $1.291M, $80,000 bonus)
• #199 Tom Brady (3 years, $866,500, $38,500 bonus)
• #202 Todd Husak (2 years, $498,000, $30,000 bonus)
• #205 JaJuan Seider (N/A)

With no rookie wage scale, and no extension rules in place, Brady was able to extend out of his rookie deal after the 2001 season (and his first Super Bowl win).

2002 Extension

The Patriots spent the 2002 offseason financially transferring their power of state from Drew Bledsoe to Tom Brady. Bledsoe had just signed a 10 year, $102.8M extension with New England in March of 2001, paying him $11.4M that season. However with it becoming immediately clear that this was Brady’s team going forward, New England linked up with division rival Buffalo, shipping Bledsoe and his massive contract out for the #14 overall pick in the 2003 draft (the Patriots moved up to #13 and selected Ty Warren with the pick).

New England now had a Super Bowl winning QB set to earn a league minimum $375,000 in an expiring contract for the upcoming season. They fixed that with a 4 year, $29.625M extension for Brady that included a $3.5M signing bonus. Brady spent 3 seasons on this contract, earning $19M for his efforts, before ripping it up and starting fresh (an exercise he’d get comfortable with).

Brady’s AAV: $7.4M (11th)
League-High AAV: $10.3M (Michael Vick)
Record on Contract: 37-11
Super Bowl Appearances: 2 (2 wins)

2005 Extension

Back-to-back Super Bowl wins in 2003 & 2004 forced the Patriots to replace the 2 years, $24M remaining on Brady’s contract with a 4 year, $42.8M extension. The deal included a $14.5M signing bonus, and $26M over the first two seasons (yes, just $2M more than his previous contract contained).

Brady played 5 out of 6 seasons on this contract, by far his longest tenure under one deal, earning $54.5M for his efforts. He won an MVP in 2007 (in an undefeated season), tore his ACL in 2008, & won Comeback Player of the year in 2009. The Patriots went to one Super Bowl during this tenure, losing to the 2007 Giants thanks to a certain helmet catch.

Brady’s AAV: $10.7M (5th)
League-High AAV: $18.7M (Steve McNair)
Record on Contract: 49-16
Super Bowl Appearances: 1

2010 Extension

After proving he was back to full health with a successful 2009 campaign, Brady was awarded a 4 year, $72M extension by the Patriots. The deal would end up being the largest total value contract he would sign in his career (by $22M). Brady turned an initial $6.6M 2010 payout into $16.5M, locking him $48.25M over the first three seasons of his new contract.

The $18M AAV also represents the first time that Tom Brady held the highest average paid NFL player honor, healthily surpassing Eli Manning’s $16.25M figure, who would get better of Brady once again in the 2011 Super Bowl.

Brady’s AAV: $18M (1st)
League-High AAV: $18M (Tom Brady)
Record on Contract: 39-9
Super Bowl Appearances: 1

2013 Extension

Now 2 MVPs & 5 Super Bowl appearances deep, Brady turned the final 2 years, $20M of his previous deal into a 3 year, $41M extension, including $32M over the first two seasons. This would be the start of Brady’s “keep the line moving” approach to his contract approach.

It’s also the obvious start of Brady taking notably less on an average annual basis, dropping his AAV from $18M down to $13.6M here, dropping him down to #18th overall in the league (despite $12M more to be earned across 2013-2014).

The Patriots lost the AFC Championship in 2013, then beat the Seahawks in the 2014 Super Bowl, thanks to Marshawn Lynch being used as a decoy at the goalline.

Brady’s AAV: $13.6M (18th)
League-High AAV: $22M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 24-8
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

2015 Extension

Brady scored a new deal for his age-38 season, dropping his AAV to 10-year-low $9M per year (87tn in the NFL). He’d earn $13M cash for his 1 season on this deal, thanks to $5M of signing bonus payment carrying over from his previous contract.

The Patriots lost the AFC Championship in 2015, and Brady was the MVP runner-up to Cam Newton. So why the need for a new contract after just one season? Ball air.

Brady’s AAV: $9M (86th)
League-High AAV: $22M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 12-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

2016 Extension

Embroiled in the “Deflate-Gate” mess, and perhaps adjusting his finances back to reality a bit, Brady and the Patriots agreed to a 2 year, $41M restructured extension. The deal now paid out Brady nearly $30M over two seasons, instead of the $19M he was due on the previous deal. It also (coincidentally) lowered his base salary down to the league minimum, which greatly reduced the amount of money he would eventually forfeit per a 4-game suspension for Deflate-Gate. He’d go 11-1 following his return to the lineup, beating the Falcons in a miraculous comeback for his 5th Super Bowl victory.

2017 was almost as special, as 40 year old Tom Brady led the league in passing yards, won the MVP, but lost to a Nick Foles-led Eagles in the Super Bowl.

Brady’s AAV: $20.5M (12th)
League-High AAV: $24.5M (Andrew Luck)
Record on Contract: 24-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 2 (1 win)

2018 Extension

The AAV & cash flow dropped down to $15M for Brady’s age-41 extension. It was largely expected that he’d tack on a few more million with achievable incentives, but he wound up going 0-5 in that regard for his 1-year run on this deal. Oh and by the way, the Patriots beat the Rams to score Brady his 6th ring.

Brady’s AAV: $15M (47th)
League-High AAV: $33.5M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 11-5
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

2019 Extension

The Patriots extended Brady in 2019 to free up some cap space, and to ramp up for his eventual exit. The $23M earned in 2019 was a career high for Brady - by $4M. Parting gift?

Brady’s AAV: $23M (14th)
League-High AAV: $35M (Russell Wilson)
Record on Contract: 12-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

2020 Free Agent Contract

Brady joined the Buccaneers on a 2 year, $50M contract, scoring the 2nd highest total value, and highest average salary contract of his career. The 43 year old posted a 102.2 rating, threw for 40 TDs, and won his 7th (and final) ring.

Brady’s AAV: $25M (17th)
League-High AAV: $45M (Patrick Mahomes)
Record on Contract: 11-5
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

2021 Extension

Brady & the Bucs decided to run-it-back on a restructured extension that dropped his cap figure from $25M down to $10.5M. When factoring in two bonuses, a minimum salary, & $1.8M of earned incentives, Brady took home just under $40M cash for his efforts in 2021 - by FAR his career high.

Brady’s AAV: $25M (18th)
League-High AAV: $45M (Patrick Mahomes)
Record on Contract: 13-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

2022 (Un-retirement) Extension

The final contract of Brady’s career was a 1 year, $15M restructure that paid out $30M in total, thanks to $15M of previously earned signing bonus carrying over to the 2022 season. The Bucs utilized void years to spread everything out as much as possible, keeping his cap figure at a modest $11.896M for the 2022 campaign.

Brady’s AAV: $15M (109th)
League-High AAV: $50.2M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 8-9
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

How Much Did Brady Leave On the Table?

So here’s the perfectly improbable but still nerdy and fun exercise. We’re going to take every one of Tom Brady’s contracts and re-evaluate them in two separate ways:

First, we’re going to adjust the AAV of his contract based on the years and dollars he actually played on them (already, we’re completely unrealistic, but let’s forge on).

Then, we’re going to find the difference between each AAV, and the Max AAV in the league the year the contract was signed. So for instance if Brady played 4 seasons making $36M over that span, we’re going to call it a $9M adjusted AAV for 4 years. If the league max was $15M when he signed that deal, we’re going to say the difference was $6M x4 years, or $24M total.

Should I bury the lead to save you from the homework? Using this highly scientific formula, we project that Brady left a maximum of $123,806,034 cash on the table by not demanding a top of the market contract every time he re-negotiated. But who’s counting?

Rookie Contract
Adjusted AAV: $301,830
Possible AAV: $301,830
Difference: $0

2002 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $6,337,560
Max AAV: $10,333,333
Difference: $3,995,773 x3

2005 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $10,903,000
Max AAV: $18,700,000
Difference: $7,797,000 x5

2010 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $16,083,333
Max AAV: $18,000,000
Difference: -$1,916,666

2013 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $16,000,000
Max AAV: $22,000,000
Difference: $6,000,000 x2

2015 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $13M
Max AAV: $22,000,000
Difference: $9,000,000

2016 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $14,887,150
Max AAV: $24,500,000
Difference: -$9,612,849 x2

2018 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $15,000,000
Max AAV: $33,500,000
Difference: $18,500,000

2019 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $23,000,000
Max AAV: $35,000,000
Difference: $12,000,000

2020 Contract
Adjusted AAV: $28,375,000
Max AAV: $45,000,000
Difference: $16,625,000

2021 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $39,420,588
Max AAV: $45,000,000
Difference: $5,579,412

2022 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $30,000,000
Max AAV: $50,271,667
Difference: $20,271,667

The 49ers ran out of magic down the stretch, sending them to an offseason full of indecision (seemingly). There are some easy moves on the list (Nick Bosa’s extension, Fred Warner’s restructure), but the right path forward for players like Arik Armstead & Brandon Aiyuk could shake things up a bit. Oh and by the way, there’s that whole QB1 ordeal.

After factoring in reserve/future contracts, the 49ers currently sit with about $5.3M of Top 51 cap space heading into February. Obviously that means work to be done. We’ll uncover some of that here.

RELATED:
49ers 2023 Salary Cap Table
2023 49ers Free Agents

Notable Team Needs

Based on the positional breakdown below:

• Cornerback & Safety
• Center
• Veteran Quarterback
• Depth Tight Ends
• Kicker
• Long Snapper

Potential Restructure & Roster Bubble Candidates

• WR Brandon Aiyuk (trade)
• RB Christian McCaffrey (restructure)
• CB Charvarius Ward  (restructure)
• LB Fred Warner (restructure)
• DL Arik Armstead (bubble, restructure)

The Quarterback Room

Is currently an in-house Immediate Care.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo continues to rehab his foot injury as he nears the open market. It seems a lock that he won’t be back in San Francisco next season. Best story of the season Brock Purdy now begins his work to fix and recover from a full UCL tear this past weekend. None of the $2.95M owed to him over the next 3 seasons is guaranteed. And 2021 1st rounder Trey Lance continues to recover from a serious ankle injury, with his timeline to return still a bit up in the air. Lance holds a fully guaranteed $9M over the next two seasons, plus a 5th-year option in 2025.

There’s an add to be made here this offseason. Will it be a smaller addition to tack on needed depth based on the injury issues, or will this be a spot for a 1-year, start immediately veteran to take the reins for 2023?.

The Running Back Room

Christian McCaffrey holds a non-guaranteed $36.2M over the next 3 seasons, set to earn $12M on a $12M cap hit next year. A full base salary conversation + 2 void years can open up $8.5M of space for the Niners this March.

24-year-old Elijah Mitchell enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, set to earn a non-guaranteed $940k in 2023. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry in 5 games last season. Youngsters ??Jordan Mason & Ty Davis-Price should remain in the fold as capable depth.

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has $1.25M of his 2023 salary fully guaranteed right now. He’s set to earn $5.25M against a $6.5M cap hit next year, with 2 years, $12.5M non-guaranteed to follow.

The Wide Receiver Room

Deebo Samuel enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M deal, set to earn $11.3M against a team-friendly $8.6M cap hit. He’ll be fully guaranteed through 2024 by April 1st, 2023.

2020 1st rounder Brandon Aiyuk is now extension-eligible for the first time, set to earn a fully guaranteed $2.3M in 2023. The Niners will have to decide on his 5th year option for 2024 by May 2nd. Aiyuk just finished his best season by a longshot, snagging 78 catches for 1,015 yards and 8 scores, and currently projects to a 4 year, $72M contract in our system. The future of Aiyuk could be an interesting talking point for San Francisco this offseason.

Ray-Ray McCloud enters a contract year on a non-guaranteed $1.2M salary, 2022 3rd rounder Danny Gray enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, & Jauan Jennings should be back on a minimum next season.

The Tight End Room

George Kittle enters Year 4 of a 6 year, $75.5M contract, set to earn $12.25M against an $18M cap number (#1 among 2023 Tight Ends). $4.5M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, locking the 30-year-old in for the upcoming season. He caught a career-high 11 TD passes in 2022.

2020 6th rounder Charlie Woerner enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He’ll hit the offseason as a roster bubble candidate, while Tyler Kroft & Ross Dwelley are slated for unrestricted free agency.

The Offensive Line

Left Tackle Trent Williams enters Year 3 of a 6 year, $137M contract, set to earn $20.25M against a $27.1M cap hit (4th most among 2023 OLs). $6.2M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, with another $10M set to lock on April 1st. The remaining 3 years, $77.3M on this contract are non-guaranteed.

2021 2nd rounder Aaron Banks will be back at Left Guard, holding a non-guaranteed $3M over the final two seasons of his rookie deal.

Centers Jake Brendel & Daniel Brunskill are both slated for free agency, making this a priority need for the Niners this offseason.

2022 4th rounder Spencer Burford had an inconsistent first campaign (as to be expected), but he settled into his Right Guard role down the stretch, and holds a non-guaranteed $2.9M through 2025.

Right Tackle Mike McGlinchey is slated for unrestricted free agency, while his apparent replacement Colton McKivitz, should garner a $2.7M tender in restricted free agency.

The Defensive Line

Javon Kinlaw enters Year 4 of his rookie contract, and is now extension-eligible for the first time, but with just 10 games played over the past two seasons, that seems unlikely right now. The Niners will need to decide on his 5th-year option by May 2nd.

After an outstanding 2021, Arik Armstead missed half of 2022 and is set to earn $16.74M against a $23.9M cap figure. While Armstead’s compensation is non-guaranteed, he holds $21.9M of dead cap this offseason, putting the Niners in a tough spot. San Francisco might opt for a smaller restructure here to lower the $23M figure without adding too much to the $14.3M of dead cap for 2024.

Samson Ebukam posted a career high 5 sacks this season, but is slated for free agency this coming March. 2022 2nd rounder ??Drake Jackson is likely asked to step into this role going forward.

The big headline here though is attached to DE Nick Bosa, who enters his 5th-year option salary season, set to earn a fully guaranteed $17.8M next season. Bosa carries a $28.6M valuation in our system, with his brother’s $102M guaranteed in clear view. 5 years, $130M, $105M guaranteed should be where things are headed here.

The Linebackers

Dre Greenlaw filled up the stat sheet in 2022, posting 127 tackles, 2 forced fumbles & a pick for his efforts. He’s set to earn $4.775M in 2023 against a very friendly $5.5M cap hit.

Fred Warner enters Year 3 of a 6 year $98M contract, set to earn $13.5M against an $18.5M cap hit for 2023. The 26-year-old was invaluable once again this past season, and the Niners can free up $9.4M of space by converting his base salary into signing bonus this offseason.

Azeez Al-Shaair started 7 games this year and is scheduled for unrestricted free agency this offseason. While RFA Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles should garner the $2.6M first right of refusal tender this March.

The Secondary

Charvarius Ward enters Year 2 of his $40.5M deal set to earn $14M against a $16.4M cap hit. $5M of it is already guaranteed, and another $8.5M locks in this April 1st. A full base salary conversion can open up $9.9M of cap space for the Niners.

Rookie deal cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir, Samuel Womack, & Ambry Thomas all should factor in this offseason, while vets Jason Verrett & Emmanuel Moseley are slated for free agency.

Veteran safeties Tashaun Gipson & Jimmie Ward are set to hit the open market, while 2021 5th rounder Talanoa Hufanga remains a candidate to start next season. Safety is a big position of need for the Niners this March.

The Special Teamers

40-year-old Robbie Gould is headed back to free agency, but he performed well enough to warrant another deal in San Francisco if he’s so inclined.

P Mitch Wishnowsky enters Year 2 of a 5 year contract, carrying a cost-effective $1.8M cap figure for 2023, while LS Taybor Pepper is headed for free agency.

After narrowly missing their second straight Super Bowl, the Cincinnati Bengals find themselves in offseason mode, with notable free agents in the secondary, a few looming decisions to be made with their weapons, and a gigantic contract extension for QB Joe Burrow now hanging over the franchise.

Cincy hits February with around $44M of Top 51 cap space (prior to reserve/future signings), but as noted below, can fairly easily open up $15M+ with simple salary conversions and/or contract extensions this spring.

RELATED
2023 Unrestricted Free Agents
Bengals’ 2023 Salary Cap Table

Notable Team Needs

Based on the positional breakdown below:

• Cornerbacks & Safeties
• Off-Ball Linebacker
• Offensive Guard
• Tight End
• Running Back
• Backup Quarterback

Potential Roster Bubbles or Restructures

• WR Tyler Boyd (bubble)
• RB Joe Mixon (bubble)
• DE Trey Hendrickson (restructure)
• DT B.J. Hill (restructure)
• DT D.J. Reader (extension)
• LB Logan Wilson (extension)

The Quarterback Room

Joe Burrow enters Year 4 of his rookie contract, now extension eligible for the first time. He’s guaranteed $5.5M for 2024, plus a 5th year option for 2024 that will need to be exercised by May, but the focus turns solely to his next long-term deal. Burrow values mathematically to a 6 year, $264M extension in our system, but $300M, with nearly $200M guaranteed seems a perfectly logical landing spot. Will he structure his deal in a way that can help the Bengals continue to remain in contention over the next 3-4 seasons?

Behind him, QB2 Brandon Allen is slated for free agency this March.

The Running Back Room

Joe Mixon didn’t quite match the outstanding 2021 campaign he posted (1,500+ yards, 16 TDs), but he was still a viable weapon, catching 60 passes while finding the end zone 9 times. With that said, his contract contains 2 years, $20.4M remaining, none of which is guaranteed or paid out as an early bonus. If the Bengals think they can flip this position on the fly, there’s $7.2M of cap to be freed up with an early release, $10M+ if Post 6/1. If the plan is to keep him, a base salary conversation + 3 void years can open up $6.5M of space.

Samaje Perine has completed his 2 year, $3.3M contract and is slated for unrestricted free agency. The 27-year-old posted a career high 681 yards from scrimmage & 6 touchdowns this year, factoring well in big moments down the stretch. There’s a world where the Bengals re-sign Perine in favor of moving on from Mixon here.

The Wide Receiver Room

Ja'Marr Chase enters Year 3 of his rookie contract, set to earn $3.4M on an $8.4M cap hit. He won’t become extension-eligible until after the 2023 season. The Bengals should be saving their change though, as the 22 year old already projects to a 4 year, $102M extension in our system - even before Justin Jefferson takes the market to another level.

2020 2nd rounder Tee Higgins enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $3M including a proven performance escalator. The 24 year old is now extension eligible, carrying a $20M+ valuation in our system. Is he willing to accept WR2 money in a WR2 role behind Ja’Marr Chase for another 3 seasons, or does he aspire to cash in with a team looking to upgrade him to WR1 status?

28 year old Tyler Boyd caught a 5 year low 58 balls for 762 yards this past season. He’s entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn $8.9M on a $10.2M cap hit. The Bengals can free up $8.8M of space by moving on via trade or release, a stark possibility this offseason.

The Tight End Room

Hayden Hurst more than doubled his 2021 production this past season with the Bengals, and did plenty to at least be considered for a return to Cincy in 2023. He’s slated for unrestricted free agency this March, carrying a 1 year, $7M valuation in our system.

2019 2nd rounder Drew Sample is also headed to the open market, missing most of 2022 with a knee injury. UDFA Mitchell Wilcox & Patriots cast-off Devin Asiasi could be back in the mix.

The Offensive Line

Left Tackle Jonah Williams enters Year 5 of his rookie contract, set to earn a fully guaranteed $12.6M on his option salary. He’s a $15M player in our system, but it’s unclear as of now if the Bengals view him as a long-term option at the blindside tackle position.

4th-rounder Cordell Volson settled into his role as the Left Guard, now holding a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M through 2025.

Veteran Center Ted Karras signed a 3 year deal this past March that only contained guarantees in 2022. He should be back in the fold next season on a $4.6M salary, $5.5M cap hit.

Right Guard Alex Cappa battled an ankle injury down the stretch but was an obvious upgrade at the position this season. None of the 3 years, $21.5M remaining on his contract are guaranteed, but an $8.7M cap hit for 2023 shouldn’t be an issue, and the Bengals can free up $3.5M of it with a base salary conversion + 3 void years.

Right Tackle La'el Collins holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $14M contract from here out, including a $9.3M cap charge for 2023. $2.4M of his compensation is built into per-game-active bonuses.

The Defensive Line

D.J. Reader enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $11.6M against a $15.5M cap figure. The #6 rated defensive lineman according to PFF carries a $16M valuation in our system, with Grady Jarrett’s 3 year, $50M re-up in Atlanta as a baseline comp.

B.J. Hill enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $30M deal, set to earn $7.5M against a $10.8M cap hit. Cincy can open up $4.8M of cap space by converting his base salary & roster bonus into signing bonus (+3 void years). Josh Tupou was a viable depth option, and should be back on his $1.5M cap figure.

Edge rushers Trey Hendrickson (2 years, $28M) & Sam Hubbard (3 years, $25.75M) both had outstanding seasons. Hubbard’s $9.9M cap figure shouldn’t be an issue, but Hendrickson’s current $15.4M charge likely gets restructured. A full salary + roster bonus conversation + 3 void years can open up over $9.3M of space.

The Linebackers

2020 3rd rounder Logan Wilson enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $2.7M against a $3M cap hit (thanks to a proven performance escalation). He projects to a 3 year, $28M contract in our system. Wilson & Germaine Pratt posted excellent 2022 campaigns, with the latter now headed to the open market this March, holding a 4 year, $42M valuation.

2020 4th rounder Akeem Davis-Gaither also enters a contract year, and could be stepping into a much bigger role if Pratt walks. Joseph Ossai enters Year 3 of his rookie deal.

The Secondary

LCB Eli Apple, FS Jessie Bates III, & SS Vonn Bell are all slated for free agency this March make the secondary an absolute priority for the Bengals in the coming weeks. Bates played out 2022 on the franchise tag, bagging 71 tackles and 4 picks for his efforts. A second tag in 2023 would come in at $15.5M. Bates projects to a 4 year, $56M contract, while Bell & Apple value to around the $11M per year mark in our system.

Chidobe Awuzie, who missed half the season with a torn ACL should be ready for the start of 2023, enters a contract season set to earn $6.65M against a $7.9M cap hit. He and 2022 2nd rounder Cam Taylor-Britt could be asked to take on the bulk of the snaps barring a major addition to the cornerback room this offseason. Slot corner Mike Hilton carries a more than tenable $5.9M cap hit in 2023, and could even be a small restructure candidate to free up a few million.

2022 1st rounder Daxton Hill saw limited action this season, but could be thrust into a starting safety role with the expected vacancies.

The Special Teamers

2021 5th-round kicker Evan McPherson enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, coming off a bit of a struggling 2022 campaign (82% field goals, 90% PATs). He’s on a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M deal for now.

UDFA P Drue Chrisman returns on a minimum salary for 2023, while Cincy likely runs it back with undrafted LS Cal Adomitis again next season.

Patrick Mahomes (KC, 27)

Mahomes completed Year 3 of his 12 year, $477M contract this season, earning $29.45M for his efforts. It seems extremely likely that he’ll add another $1.25M with his 2nd NFL MVP award soon, and there’s another $1.25M to be added with a victory against the Bengals in the AFC Championship game.

The bulky portion of Mahomes’ contract kicks in next season, where he’s set to earn $40.5M on a $46.7M cap figure (3rd highest in the league). There’s a massive $34.4M roster bonus that can be converted to signing bonus, freeing up $27.5M of cap space for the Chiefs, who enter February with about $12M of Top 51 room (though reserve/future contracts have yet to be signed).

The Mahomes deal has an early vesting guarantee all the way through 2031. All of his 2023 & 2024 compensation is already fully guaranteed and another $38.9M from 2025 locks in this coming March 17th. It’s a truly unprecedented NFL contract. 

Joe Burrow (CIN, 26)

Burrow just finished Year 3 of his rookie contract, totaling $30M earned in his first three NFL seasons. He’s now extension-eligible for the first time, though his current deal still contains a fully guaranteed $5.5M next season, plus a 5th-year option in 2024.

The Bengals have no reason to wait around with his contract extension, as Burrow has answered every question from Day 1, immediately converting Cincinnati from a bit of a laughing stock, into annual contenders.

When evaluating his past two seasons against the likes of Mahomes, Allen, Murray, & Watson, Burrow calculates to a $44M price point. But there’s zero reason to believe that the Bengals won’t establish a contract that puts Burrow ahead of Aaron Rodgers’ $50.1M per year, and Kyler Murray’s $189.5M in total guarantees. Those are the benchmarks, and he’s earned them.

Jalen Hurts (PHI, 24)

Hurts just finished Year 3 of his 4 year, $6M rookie contract in Philly, meaning he’ll be entering a contract season in 2023. His base salary for next year has already been escalated to a projected $4M based on playing time/production, adding an additional $3M to his overall compensation, but it seems a moot point.

The Eagles are largely expected to extend their young QB1 this spring, who responded remarkably to the “all-in” roster that was quickly built around him for the 2022 campaign (66% completion rate, 246 pass yards per game, 22 TD/6 INT, 101.5 rating, 760 rush yards, 13 rush TDs).

Like Burrow, he also carries a $44M valuation into the offseason, despite a more versatile set of skills. Size, durability, and overall injury risk are red flags he’ll carry for the rest of his career, but putting a 4 year guarantee on him through his age 28 season hardly seems a risk not worth taking. Kyler Murray’s 5 year, $230.5M extension ($189.5M total guaranteed) in Arizona is a baseline for the Hurts negotiation this spring.

Brock Purdy (SF, 23)

Purdy just completed his rookie season that included a $77,000 signing bonus, and league minimum $705,000 base salary. He’ll earn the league minimum 2 years, $1.85M over the next two seasons before becoming extension-eligible after 2024.

None of us can see into the SF QB Glass Ball, but it seems at least possible that Purdy has earned himself the right to start the 2023 season as the Niners QB1. Unrevealed prospect Trey Lance still has 2 years, $9M (fully guaranteed) plus a 5th-year option in 2025 remaining on his rookie deal. If we remove the draft compensation given up to move up and select Lance, these numbers actually represent standard QB2 money in the league.

How will this all shake out? Completely undetermined. If the Niners are blown away by a trade offer for Lance, why wouldn’t they consider picking up additional draft compensation? If they remain committed to making Lance their QB1, they now have the ability to slow-play his recovery from serious injury, using Purdy as a long-term substitute in the meantime. Lance & Purdy are set to account for $10.1M against the SF cap next season - $44.8M less than what Deshaun Watson currently accounts for in Cleveland. 

After narrowly missing the playoffs, the Packers hit the offseason with plenty of question marks, an overage of salary cap (-$17M at the time of this piece), & a decision to be made at both QB1 & QB2 in the coming months.

Notable Team Needs

Based on the positional breakdown below, the 2023 Packers appear to be thinnest at:

• Quarterback (potentially)
• Wide Receiver (behind the youth)
• Tight End
• Offensive Tackle (potentially both)
• Safety
• Kicker

Potential Roster Bubbles or Restructures

• QB Aaron Rodgers (trade/retirement)
• RB Aaron Jones (restructure)
• LT David Bakhtiari (release, restructure)
• DT Kenny Clark (extension)
• CB Jaire Alexander (restructure)
• P Pat O'Donnell (bubble)

The Quarterback Room

Another will he won’t he offseason for Aaron Rodgers drives the Packers’ decision making process. There’s a $58.3M option bonus attached to his 2023 compensation ($59.515M total) which will need to be delayed until Green Bay understands how things will move forward.

Assuming Rodgers decides to return for a 19th season with the Packers, Green Bay will exercise that option, keeping his 2023 cap figure at $31.6M (with no additional restructuring available).

If Rodgers requests a trade, there are two options: Before June 1st, and after. The former has more cap pain, but the latter means no 2023 draft picks can be acquired. Assuming Rodgers is moved early in the offseason, the Packers will take on a dead cap hit of $40,313,568, all in 2023, losing $8.69M of cap space this year. If the deal is struck after 6/1, (and assuming the option bonus hasn’t been exercised yet), Green Bay will take on a $15,833,568 dead cap hit in 2023, with another $24,480,000 slated for 2024. The Packers would save $15.79M in 2023 with this move, but not until June 2nd. All of these numbers also apply should Aaron Rodgers retire this offseason.

For those wondering, Rodgers would bring a $15.79M cap figure with him to a new team in 2023, then $32.5M, $51.1M, & $45.2M through 2026. If he were to retire after 2023, he’d leave behind a $43.725M dead cap hit in 2024.

Green Bay also enters a decision year for Jordan Love, who enters Year 4 of his rookie contract, set to earn a fully guaranteed $2.2M. The Packers will need to decide on Love’s 2024 5th-year option, projected to cost around $22M, by May 2nd. If they exercise it, the entire salary becomes fully guaranteed immediately. If they decline it, Love will be eligible for unrestricted free agency next March.

The Running Back Room

28-year-old Aaron Jones enters Year 3 of his 4 year, $48M contract, set to earn $16M on a $20.02M cap hit next season. There’s a $7M roster bonus due March 17th that puts some pressure on Green Bay to decide on his immediate future, as a trade or outright release here can free up $10.4M of space. Jones compiled 1,500+ yards from scrimmage in 2022, but his total TDs (7) were down, & his fumbles (5) were a career high. If the plan is to keep him, a full salary conversion + 1 new void year can open up $11.2M of space.

A.J. Dillon enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.3M on a $1.6M cap hit. While his overall numbers were a bit down in 2022, he found the end zone a career high 7 times. If Green Bay moves on from Jones and gives Dillon the keys this season, it’s likely his contractual floor starts at James Conner’s $7M mark.

The Wide Receiver Room

2022 2nd rounder Christian Watson enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.1M on a $2.1M cap hit. His emergence to finish off 2022 signals a chance for huge value out of this contract over the next few seasons.

2022 4th rounder Romeo Doubs also looked the part, and his non-guaranteed 3 years, $2.9M could give Green Bay a cheap, talented 1-2 punch in the passing game through 2025.

Vets Randall Cobb & Allen Lazard are both slated for free agency this offseason, with the latter carrying a $12.5M valuation into the offseason.

The Tight End Room

The Packers are thin here, as both Robert Tonyan Jr. & Marcedes Lewis are headed back to the open market (leaving behind a combined $1.55M of dead cap). 2020 3rd rounder Josiah Deguara enters a contract year (non-guaranteed $1.1M), while UDFAs Nick Guggemos & Austin Allen were signed to reserve deals this winter.

Tonyan carries a $5M valuation in our system, and seems the most likely option to be brought back and take over the reins again, though this is certainly a team keeping an eye on the likes of Mike Gesicki, Dalton Schultz, Evan Engram, & Hayden Hurst on the open market this March.

The Offensive Line

Left Tackle David Bakhtiari’s inability to stay on the field at least puts his contract in question this March, though early reports seem to favor him sticking around for one more season. Moving on this March leaves behind $23.1M of dead cap to 2023, freeing up $5.65M. He’s set to account for $28.7M on the Packers’ cap right now, so keeping him around will likely require a 3rd straight restructure. Converting his $9.5M March roster bonus (+ 3 void years) into signing bonus can open up $7.6M of space.

Left Guard Elgton Jenkins locked in a 4 year, $68M extension this past Christmas, though his $24M signing bonus is the only full guarantee at signing (a Packers’ standard). The new deal brings a team-friendly $6.9M cap hit for 2023.

2021 2nd rounder Josh Myers ranked 27th among centers according to PFF, bringing a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2.5M deal to the table through 2024. There’s a world where a veteran upgrade is brought in here this March.

Right Guard Jon Runyan enters a contract year in 2023, with an estimated $2.745M salary, thanks to a proven performance escalator. At this point however, it seems unlikely that an early extension will come this season.

Green Bay is likely in the market for a Right Tackle this offseason, as Yosh Nijman is slated for free agency, & Royce Newman & Zach Tom are both placeholders until proven otherwise.

The Defensive Line

Kenny Clark enters Year 4 of a 5 year, $78M contract, set to earn $16.25M on a $23.9M cap figure and will be the first to admit it was an inconsistent 2022. There’s $14.5M of compensation available to be restructured this season, which could come via another salary conversion - or a full boat new contract extension.

2022 1st rounder Devonte Wyatt enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.2M ($2.9M cap hit).

Jarran Reed & Dean Lowry are slated for free agency, leaving behind a combined $4.49M of voided dead cap on their way out.

The Linebackers

30-year-old Preston Smith enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $64.5M contract, set to earn $10.6M on a $13M cap hit, all but securing his spot for 2023. Converting his $7.5M roster bonus into signing bonus can open up $6M of space as needed.

Rashan Gary was having a year (6 sacks, 32 tackles, 1 forced fumble in 9 games) before tearing his ACL. Now his 2023 season is in jeopardy as well, likely removing the chance he’ll bag an extension before his rookie deal expires. He’s slated to play out a fully guaranteed $10.8M option salary in 2023. From a valuation standpoint, he’s squarely in the conversation to find himself at the top of the mountain at some point, currently holding a $26M figure in our system. If the Packers trust he’ll be the same player post-recovery, locking him into this deal now can lower his 2023 cap hit, and keep him in the mix for 2024 and beyond.

2022 5th rounder Kingsley Enagbare looks like he might continue to be a factor, and his non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M certainly fits the bill.

De'Vondre Campbell enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $50M contract, set to earn $5.25M on an $8.15M cap hit which shouldn’t need to be touched. His counterpart Quay Walker enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, and is fully guaranteed through 2025, plus a 2026 option.

The Secondary

Jaire Alexander enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $98M contract, set to earn $14M on a $20M cap hit, the 4th highest such figure among 2023 cornerbacks. There’s a massive $11.45M roster bonus due March 19th that will almost certainly be converted to a signing bonus (+1 void year), clearing $9.16M of cap.

Behind him, Rasul Douglas enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $21M deal, set to earn $6M on a $7.7M cap hit. He had a strong 2022 and should hold good value again next season. 2021 1st-rounder Eric Stokes missed half the year with ankle/knee injuries, but is fully guaranteed through 2023.

29-year-old safety Adrian Amos is headed for free agency, while 2019 1st rounder Darnell Savage is entering his 5th year option season, carrying a fully guaranteed $7.9M salary for 2023. Safety is a position of need for the Packers this offseason.

The Special Teamers

K Mason Crosby is a pending free agent, coming off of a season where he made 86% of his field goals, 95% of his PATs. If he’s asked back for a 17th season, it’ll likely be done at or around the minimum salary.

P Pat O'Donnell holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.9M contract, set to account for $2.375M against the cap in 2023. The 32 year old is solid, but with $1.9M to be saved, it’s possible the Packers look to save a buck and go younger here.

LS Jack Coco remains a minimum salary option through 2023.