Texas Rangers ML + Martin Perez o5.5 Ks

Dan SoemannJuly 29, 2022

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Los Angeles Angels disappointing season has been the emergence of Patrick Sandoval as a middle of the rotation starter. Never a highly regarded prospect (LAA #12 in 2019), he’s easily the Angels breakout player of the year providing consistency behind Ohtani and Syndergaard. Despite that success, his peripherals suggest over performance and regression could be coming. The HR/9 is way down from previous career averages and his 3.64 ERA has some luck built in (4.54 xERA). For these reasons, I think Sandoval can be exposed by good offenses like Texas and like the Rangers money line (-108).

The Angels have the highest strikeout rate in the league (26.3%) and are now without Mike Trout indefinitely. Toss in a looming trade line with plenty of notable players rumored to be on the block (including Shohei Ohtani), and there's reason to believe the Angels' struggles will continue this weekend.

Consider a single game parlay, adding one of 2022's bigger surprises Martin Perez at over 5.5 Ks, plus a Texas Rangers moneyline win over LAA.

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Antonio Senzatela 4+ Ks

Dan SoemannJuly 22, 2022

The Rockies head to the midwest for a weekend series in Milwaukee and while Corbin Burnes will get all the attention in this one, I’m focused on Antonio Senzatela for our bet this week.

The Brewers offense is getting healthy but they still strikeout >23% against right handed pitchers. While Senzatela isn’t elite, his splits outside of Coors are considerably better as you could imagine with his K/9 jumping from 4 to 7.3 on the road. If he can go 5+ innings, I think he easily clears 4 Ks and I even have interest in alternate strikeout lines above this.

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Home Run Derby Breakdown

Dan SoemannJuly 15, 2022

(1) Kyle Schwarber vs (8) Albert Pujols
Kyle Schwarber leads the NL and all Derby participants with (28) HRs and was rewarded with the top overall seed. Appearing in his 11th All Star Game and 5th Home Run Derby, Pujols is a great nostalgia story but it’s hard to imagine him getting past Kyle Schwarber and keeping pace with this field through two additional rounds.

(2) Pete Alonso vs (7) Ronald Acuna
Alonso is the two time reigning champ and has the most HRs in Derby history (131) but somehow earned the second seed. He’s still the betting favorite but faces perhaps the toughest first round opponent not named Schwarber. I’m not betting against Alonso but Ronald Acuna’s plus plus raw power could play perfectly here. He’s as good of a bet as any if he finds a rhythm and gets through the first round.

(3) Corey Seager vs (6) Julio Rodriguez
Seager returns to Dodger stadium for the first time since signing a massive free agent deal with the Rangers last offseason. He’s typically not thought of as a power hitter but Seager is enjoying a career year and has (22) HRs through the first half - almost matching his career high of 26. Rookie of the Year candidate Julio Rodriguez is favored but I’m more likely to side with the proven veteran given the odds.

(4) Juan Soto vs (5) Jose Ramirez
This matchup is a coin flip and there’s not much to analyze. Two of the best all around hitters in the game and both could easily win this if things fall right. Soto got off to a slow start but has found his power stroke in the past week while Ramirez is as consistent as they come.


Wager of the Week

I agree with Vegas that Schwarber and Alonso are the easy favorites here but the field is talented enough for me to hesitate at the current odds. 

My favorite bets are down the board a bit. Seager is absolutely hammering the ball right now and should be comfortable in his former home stadium. Jose Ramirez has one of the easiest power swings in the game and could compete with anyone in the field across three rounds.

  • Corey Seager (+1200)
  • Jose Ramirez (+1400)

 

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Weekend Series Wager: July 8

Dan SoemannJuly 08, 2022

The Texas Rangers return home following a (3-6) road trip against the Royals, Mets and Orioles and the schedule doesn’t get any easier as they’ll greet the AL Central leading Minnesota Twins. The good news is Texas will have their best three starters on the mound with Jon Gray, Martin Perez and Dane Dunning facing off against Sonny Gray, Devin Smeltzer and Dylan Bundy.

Gray and Perez have lived up to their roles as front of the rotation starters and Dunning is talented despite his inconsistent results. On the Twins side, Smeltzer and Bundy have been excellent to start but it feels like both are pitching over their heads. Regression could be coming against a dangerous Rangers offense. 

We would typically attack the home team in their first game back from a lengthy road trip but both teams were off yesterday so it’s less of a factor here. Instead, I’m interested in the home team with plus matchups at almost even odds.

Series Winner:  TEX (+104)

 

Weekend Series Wager: July 1

Dan SoemannJuly 01, 2022

Chicago heads to San Francisco for a crucial interleague matchup as both teams look to keep pace in their respective division races. The White Sox have mostly disappointed but they’re lingering on the fringe of a less competitive division and getting healthy as they begin the second easiest remaining strength of schedule. I believe they’re better positioned to make a run as we flip the calendar to July.

They can get it jump started this weekend as they match up the top end of their rotation (Lynn, Cease, Giolito) against a lesser trio of Cobb, Webb, and Desclafani. With five lefties on offense, the Giants can be difficult for RHPs but I think the strength of these starters in a pitchers ballpark can offset that platoon advantage. I'll take the positive odds on Chicago winning at least two of three on the road.

Series Winner:  CWS (+134)

MLB Season Long Odds Market: June 24

Dan SoemannJune 24, 2022

AL West:

We haven’t made it to July yet but it’s over here. Houston is now (-1700) and 98.6% to win the AL West per FanGraphs. Continue using them as an ‘odds booster’ but also consider an Astros World Series wager. FanGraphs considers them favorites to win at 14% but they have the third best odds (+650) behind the Dodgers (+440) and Yankees (+450).

 

AL East:

With four legit playoff contenders it’s difficult to declare this division already but the Yankees keep rolling along and now hold a 12.5 game lead over the 2nd place Blue Jays. I’m still in on the Blue Jays, Rays and Red Sox as October threats but there’s no way they can climb back into the division race at this point. Same as Houston, New York is an easy add to boost odds in a parlay.

 

AL Central:

Cleveland is emerging as one of the best early season values. A hot stretch has them at (+240) when their odds were (+900) only a few weeks prior. Meanwhile, the White Sox division odds are the lowest they’ve been all season (+160) as they begin the 2nd easiest remaining schedule. I’m not overly confident any of these teams separate from the pack but I’ll buy the dip with Chicago. They were clear favorites heading into the season (-210) and could be primed to make a run if they get healthy.


NL West:
Similar to the AL Central, I expect this race to stay close all year and don’t see any of the top three teams separating in a big way. Los Angeles entered the year with what many considered one of the strongest lineups ever assembled but suddenly they have a number of questions. This is reflected with the odds as they are the lowest we’ve seen yet after starting as massive division favorites. I think the Dodgers have underperformed to this point and expect their front office to find solutions for their roster issues. Simply put, this is a bet on a 2nd half rebound and I want to invest before the odds go in the other direction permanently.

 

Wager of the Week:

HOU (-1700) + NYY (-1100) + CWS (+160) + LAD (-200)

MLB Season Long Odds Market: June 17

Dan SoemannJune 17, 2022

The Yankees and Astros have built up big leads in their respective divisions, while the Padres have shot past the Dodgers. 

AL West:
Another week, another big jump for the Astros division odds. They’re now (-1100) favorites, a 92% implied win percentage which is more in line with FanGraphs projection (97.2%).


AL East:
The Yankees sweep of Tampa Bay did no one in the division any favors and their lead is up to 10 games. I was admittedly skeptical entering the season but a few subtle offseason moves have paid huge dividends. They’re 31 games over .500 in June and it’s hard to imagine this team falling off a cliff, even in that difficult division.


AL Central:
The Guardians are (13-3) over in June but enter a critical stretch against the Dodgers, Twins, Red Sox and Yankees. Meanwhile, the White Sox have the easiest remaining schedule in the league. If Cleveland can weather the storm, expect this to be a three team race to the finish. 


NL West:
San Diego suddenly leads the division and the Dodgers are now without their ace Walker Buehler until at least September. LA has relied heavily on incredible starts from Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Andersen and both could see some regression in the second half. They’ll get Andrew Heaney back this weekend but I’d bet Andrew Friedman is looking to add another starter. The market hasn’t adjusted yet and our model shows the Padres as the biggest value yet this season. The division is still wide open and there's enough uncertainty with LAD that I’m willing to add some shares of San Diego where it makes sense.



MLB Divisional Parlay of the Week:  HOU (-1100) + NYY (-550) + SDP (+250)

MLB Season Long Odds Market: June 10

Dan SoemannJune 10, 2022

AL West:

The Astros division odds made a sizable shift last week but now the other shoe has dropped with more significant movement this week. Los Angeles lost 14 straight games while Houston extended its lead to 9 games and they’re now (-700) favorites, a massive jump from (-200) only a month ago. This line is increasingly hard to bet on it’s own but there’s still some value. I’m treating it as an ‘odds booster’ going forward and will continue pairing it in parlays.



NL East:

We’ve highlighted the NL Central in recent weeks and continue watching it closely. This is a two team race with a lot of line movement in recent weeks. I still believe the Mets ultimately win here but the margin of error is suddenly low. Their lead is down to 6.5 games and it looks as though Pete Alonso and Starling Marte will be added to their already lengthy injured list. Our model keeps showing Atlanta as a strong value and it’s hard to ignore considering the circumstances.

 

Wager of the Week:  HOU (-700) + ATL (+350)

 

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Spotrac’s Season Long Odds Market

The MLB regular season is a marathon, but betting on it doesn’t have to be. Keeping a close eye on data, trends, and line movements  can allow for great value on a week to week basis. Our Season Long Odds Market series will focus on a variety of year end bets, including Division, Pennant, & World Series winners, MVP & Rookie of the Year candidates, and plenty more.

Our process will include analyzing real-time odds from FanDuel Sports Book, predictive odds from FanGraphs, & a little logic based on schedules, standings, injuries, etc… We’ll identify teams who are in a strong window to place a season-end bet on based on the difference between current actual and expected odds, with a nod to parlay every now and then for even more value as well. 

Interested in this stuff? We’d love to hear from you.

 

MLB Season Long Odds Market: June 3

Dan SoemannJune 03, 2022

AL West:

This week we finally saw a sizable correction on one of our favorite division values, Houston. The Astros odds have been slashed in half over the past month as the Angels have struggled to keep pace and Houston is now (-440) favorites. It’s hard to justify buying this line on its own but I now consider Houston an auto add to any season long parlays. Fangraphs has them at >93% to win that division and this line could be much higher.

NL Central:

Milwaukee has been our other favorite on the board in recent weeks. Injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta have tested their depth but the starting rotation has held serve so far. The Brewers lead is down to 3 games and while they’re still (-280) favorites, I suspect that number would be over (-300) without the current injury uncertainty. I love the Cardinals offense but still don’t believe in the pitching long term. If the NL East odds start to shift towards St. Louis, I’ll continue adding shares of Milwaukee.

NL EAST:

Last week we tried jumping the market and attacked the Braves slipping odds. That couldn’t have gone worse as the Mets swept the Phillies and Nationals while the Braves split against the Marlins and Diamondbacks. Despite mounting injuries, New York now holds a 9.5 game lead and it’s hard to imagine Atlanta climbing out of that deficit. Our model shows there’s still value on the Braves but I’ll begin hedging any previous Atlanta bets by mixing the Mets into parlays with our other favorites.

WAGER OF THE WEEK:

The current lines are pretty efficient and there's few combinations that get us a positive expected value bet. That being said, anything I do will continue revolving around HOU + MIL and I'm close to adding NYM to that group.

Our model shows value on the Blue Jays and the Yankees feel like they're one injury away from chaos. For that reason, I'm grabbing shares of Toronto and will keep a close eye on Tampa Bay who is quietly (30-21).

HOU (-440) + MIL (-280) + TOR (+250)

 

BET MLB DIVISION WINNERS ON FANDUEL

Spotrac’s Season Long Odds Market

The MLB regular season is a marathon, but betting on it doesn’t have to be. Keeping a close eye on data, trends, and line movements  can allow for great value on a week to week basis. Our Season Long Odds Market series will focus on a variety of year end bets, including Division, Pennant, & World Series winners, MVP & Rookie of the Year candidates, and plenty more.

Our process will include analyzing real-time odds from FanDuel Sports Book, predictive odds from FanGraphs, & a little logic based on schedules, standings, injuries, etc… We’ll identify teams who are in a strong window to place a season-end bet on based on the difference between current actual and expected odds, with a nod to parlay every now and then for even more value as well. 

Interested in this stuff? We’d love to hear from you.

MLB Season Long Odds Market: May 27

Dan SoemannMay 27, 2022

AL Central:

This division is officially up for grabs and we’ll be watching it closely over the coming weeks. Chicago entered the season as clear favorites (-210) ahead of Minnesota (+500) but some key injuries have contributed to a slow start. This opened the door for the Twins who now hold a 4.5 game lead. The White Sox remain a slight betting favorite but the odds have moved towards even. I expect it to keep trending in that direction with a tough June schedule for Chicago (series against TOR, TBR, LAD, HOU and LAA). 

I like the Twins' depth but the optimal time to bet on them has passed. Instead, if Chicago loses additional ground over the next few weeks I’ll buy the dip ahead of players returning from injury (Lynn, Jimenez) and an easier schedule down the stretch. 

 

NL East:

When it was announced that Max Scherzer would miss 6-8 weeks I expected the market to gravitate towards Atlanta. To my surprise the opposite happened and there’s been further separation between the Mets and Braves. Candidly, I still believe the Mets win this division but I’m less convinced than I was 2 weeks ago. The Braves have a quality rotation with depth in the minors, an experienced bullpen and perhaps the best offensive infield in baseball. We know Alex Anthopoulos will plug outfield holes at the deadline and this team should again be a force down the stretch. If the market thinks the Mets are still clear favorites despite the injuries there’s value on the Atlanta side.

 

Wager of the Week:  

MIL (-290) + HOU (-270) + ATL (+340)

Following up on last week, there’s still plenty of value with Milwaukee and Houston compared to their projected win percentages. While the odds are not as good, I still think they’re a safe bet and will continue pairing them with other teams I like to improve the overall odds.

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