The NBA’s extension rules are broken. Not irreparably so, but they need to be fixed. Kyle Kuzma of the Washington Wizards is a perfect example.

Kuzma recently confirmed that he intends to opt out of his contract this coming offseason. That makes sense, as Kuzma is set to be paid just $13 million for the 2023-24 season. His play since being traded to the Wizards has far outpaced that of a midrange deal.

This season, Kuzma has averaged 21.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. He’s done so on respectable shooting, especially given he’s regularly Washington’s top scoring option. Overall, Kuzma has proven he’s scoring combo forward, and combo forwards who can score generally get paid.

In an ideal world, Kuzma and Washington would sign an extension. However, the NBA’s current extension rules would see Kuzma leave far too much money on the table.

Let’s dive in!

The Veteran Extension

Kuzma currently makes $13 million in the second season of the three-year, $39 million rookie scale extension he signed with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020. That deal is set to pay Kuzma $13 million flat per season, with the 2023-24 season being a player option.

Under the veteran extension rules, Kuzma would be able to decline his 2023-24 player option and add four years to his deal via extension. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $15,600,000
• 2024-25: $16,848,000
• 2025-26: $18,096,000
• 2026-27: $19,344,000
• Total: four years, $69,888,000

That’s the maximum allowable 120% off Kuzma’s current salary with 8% raises off the $15.6 million first-year salary.

For reference: A salary of $15.6 million would rank 93rd in the NBA, nestled between Jusuf Nurkic’s $15,625,000 and Malik Beasley’s $15,558,035.

That’s not enough for a player who is scoring more than 21 points per game, while adding solid rebounding and passing. Thus, Kuzma is planning to opt for free agency this coming summer.

The Designated Veteran Extension

Kuzma isn’t eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, but we’re only mentioning this here to say it’s not happening. For Kuzma to be eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, he’d have to make All-NBA this season, win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. None of those things are happening.

Re-signing with the Wizards as a free agent

Kuzma is going to opt out, which gives him control over his next team for the first time in his career. Because Kuzma signed only a three-year rookie scale extension, and he’s opting out after the second season, he’ll have six Years of Service. That keeps him eligible for the 25% of the salary cap maximum tier. A max deal for Kuzma with the Wizards would look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap max with 8% raises.

That feels far too rich for a player who has never been an All-Star and will be 28 years old when next season starts.

Signing with another team as a free agent

This summer, nine teams project to have cap space. Of those nine, seven are in range to be able to offer Kuzma the maximum they possibly can. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $35,175,000
• 2025-26: $36,850,000
• 2026-27: $38,525,000
• Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same first-year maximum salary as Kuzma could get from the Wizards at 25% of the cap. The difference here is the deal includes 5% raises and can only go out for four years.

An AAV of $36 million still feels like too much for Kuzma. To get him to leave Washington, another team will need to offer a big contract, but it probably doesn’t need to be quite that big.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

We’re going to take this option off the table, as it’s even more limiting than signing a straight extension would be. Kuzma could only add two seasons and a 5% bump over his currently salary.

To make it simple: Any team trading for Kuzma would be doing so with hopes that having his Bird Rights for a new contract in July will be enough.

One note: If Kuzma at all waffles on his commitment to re-signing with the Wizards this coming summer, Washington has to consider trading him. To get something for Kuzma vs losing him for nothing is a must.

Summary

Kyle Kuzma’s situation is an interesting one. The extension rules being so limiting take that off the table. Kuzma’s also not in a spot to land a max deal in free agency, barring something really unexpected. Finding that sweet spot in between is the key.

It’s not a lock Washington will re-sign Kuzma, as their team salary is starting to push towards the tax. The Wizards also have a new contract looming for Kristaps Porzingis, either this coming free agent period (if Porzingis opts out) or via extension or new deal in 2024 (if Porzingis opts in). Washington also gave Bradley Beal a five-year, $251 million deal that is starting to look a little shaky.

In free agency, it’s unclear if Kuzma will be a priority free agent for anyone. His scoring game could make sense for teams like the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers or Oklahoma City Thunder. The latter two might make slightly more sense, The Pacers and Thunder are somewhat limited on forward talent, whereas the Pistons and Rockets have some young forwards already in place.

The Los Angeles Lakers are probably thinking bigger with their cap space, while the Orlando Magic already have a overstuffed forward position. It’s unclear what the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz will be doing as this point. There’s a world where Kuzma could make sense for both of those teams too.

It’s also worth noting that the free agent crop is fairly weak this summer. Kuzma will be somewhere around the top-10 of free agents that can be reasonably expected to change teams come July.

Where does that leave him contract-wise? In a pretty good spot. Here are some players that are decent comps for Kuzma and their recent contracts:

• Davis Bertans: five years, $80 million
• Bojan Bogdanovic: two-year extension for $39 million
• Tobias Harris: four years, $64 million in 2015-16 (Harris’ current near-max deal isn’t a fair comp, as it’s considered one of the worst deals in the NBA, but his initial extension is a good comp)
• Lauri Markkanen: four years, $67.5 million in 2021-22
• Marcus Morris: four years, $64 million in 2020-21

Not all of those comps are perfect, but they’re close. On average, those players all got between $16 million and $17 million per season. That’s not all that far off what Kuzma could extend for with the Wizards. But the key differences are the weak free agent market and the changing cap environment.

In such a poor free agent class, Kuzma is poised to cash in. That will bump his value up some. In addition, in coming seasons, $17 million is going to be closer to 10% of the cap than it is the 15-20% it was for many of the above players.

Adding it all up, Kuzma should still land a four-year deal worth between $75 million and $80 million. Given he’ll be 28 years old when next season starts, Washington or a rival team would do well to structure Kuzma’s next deal as a descending contract.

Here’s what that could look like if Kuzma re-signed with the Wizards:

• 2023-24: $22,000,000
• 2024-25: $20,240,000
• 2025-26: $18,480,000
• 2026-27: $16,720,000
• Total: four years, $77,440,000

This version declines by 8% each season, which is the maximum allowable if Kuzma re-signs in Washington. A $16.7 million salary in his age-31 season seems fair for both Kuzma and the Wizards. It would also give Washington a little cap sheet relief, considering Beal is set to make over $57 million that season.

If Kuzma wanted similar overall money from another team, but still on a descending structure, it could look like this:

• 2023-24: $20,925,000
• 2024-25: $19,878,750
• 2025-26: $18,832,500
• 2026-27: $17,786,250
• Total: four years, $77,422,500

That’s roughly the same total money as Kuzma would get from Washington, but with 5% declines per season.

Either one of those setups gives Kuzma more money than the players we comped him with. That seems fair given the combination of Kuzma’s production, his age, the free agent market this summer and the continued rising of the salary cap. Of course, Kuzma could do a deal that follows the traditional structure with the lower salaries up front.

No matter the structure, as long as Washington, or any other team, keeps Kyle Kuzma’s next deal in the range of four years and $80 million, they’ll have done well.

Most NBA general managers will tell you that making trades are a complicated process. The fantasyification of sports, as well as the point-and-click nature of video games, sometimes has fans thinking that making a trade is easy.

The reality is NBA front offices talk trades every single day. Quite often a deal is bandied about months in advance of getting the tweet that it’s been agreed to. Most often, trade talks go nowhere.

The hardest part of making a trade is an obvious one: agreeing on the value heading both ways. But there are complicating factors even beyond that.

Many a time, the teams agree to the base parameters of a deal. Player X is going one way, while Player Y and draft picks are headed the other way. But sometimes that’s not enough to get a deal done. Both sides have to meet the salary-matching component in a trade, and that can get confusing and hard to understand.

Salary-matching in a trade makes signing a player by using cap space look like child’s play. If you have $20 million in available cap space and you want to sign a player, you can offer him up to $20 million. That’s pretty cut and dry.

For a trade to happen in the NBA, there are salary-matching rules that to be met. Let’s break those down.

Trading as a Taxpayer

10 teams are currently over the NBA’s tax line. Nine of them are pretty good bets to finish as taxpayers. Another eight teams are dancing around the tax line. So, over half of the NBA is around the tax as trade season opens.

That’s important because taxpayers have a different set of salary-matching rules than non-taxpayers do.

Taxpayers can take back 125% of the outgoing salary they send out plus $100,000. That means if a taxpayer sends out $20 million in salary, they can take back $25,100,000 in incoming salary.

The reason this is done is to limit how much money a taxpayer can take back in a trade to retain some semblance of competitive balance.

Trading as a Non-Taxpayer

A non-taxpayer has bands for how much salary they can return in a trade.

If a non-taxpayer sends out $1 to $6.5 million in a trade, they can bring back 175% of the outgoing salary plus $100,000.

If a non-taxpayer sends out between greater than $6.5 million in a trade and $19.6 million, they can bring back the outgoing salary plus $5 million.

If a non-taxpayer sends out greater than $19.6 million in a trade, they can bring back 125% of the outgoing salary plus $100,000.

This is done to bring some balance to what non-taxpayers can do in trade as opposed to taxpayers.

Important Note: The calculation as to whether a team is a taxpayer or non-taxpayer is always done post-trade. That means if a team is going from being under the tax to over the tax, how much money they can return via trade could possibly change.

Matching salary via other means

When a trade is made, each team is allowed to structure the trade in the best possible way for themselves. While we might get a deal reported as “Team 1 is trading Players X, Y and Z to Team 2 for Players A, B, C and D”, the actual structure of that deal might be far more complicated.

For example, Team 1 might have a Traded Player Exception (TPE) they are using to absorb Player D and only using salary-matching to trade for Players A, B and C. On the other side, Team 2 could be using the Minimum Exception to absorb Player X, while using salary-matching to bring on Players Y and Z. This type of structuring is often how TPEs are created.

Other Important Trade Rules

• Players who are making the Veteran Minimum can almost always be acquired via the Minimum Exception. That means no salary-matching needs to be used for them to be brought in. Note: something still needs to be sent to the trading team in the deal.

Inversely, if their salary is needed in a deal to make the salary-matching work, a team is allowed to include it as such.

• Players with a trade bonus can waive part or all of the trade bonus in order to meet the salary-matching rules.
• Draft picks always carry a value of $0 in trade. They are “extras” being added to a deal and have no impact on salary-matching.
• Players on a one-year contract with Bird or Early Bird rights after the contract expires (inclusive of an option year) have an implied no-trade clause. This is because those players lose those rights if traded under these circumstances. Two other players, Bradley Beal and Deandre Ayton, also have no-trade clauses. Beal’s is a full NTC, while Ayton’s is a temporary NTC. This year, the NTC list includes:
• Ryan Arcidiacono (New York Knicks)
• Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns - one-year NTC due to matched offer sheet)
• Bradley Beal (Washington Wizards - only full NTC)
• Bismack Biyombo (Phoenix Suns)
• Jevon Carter (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Kessler Edwards (Brooklyn Nets)
• Drew Eubanks (Portland Trail Blazers)
• James Harden (Philadelphia 76ers)
• Serge Ibaka (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Andre Iguodala (Golden State Warriors)
• Derrick Jones Jr. (Chicago Bulls)
• Nathan Knight (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Wesley Matthews (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Rodney McGruder (Detroit Pistons)
• Mike Muscala (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• Theo Pinson (Dallas Mavericks)
• Each side has to give up something in a deal. Even in a straight salary dump trade, something has to go back the other way. This can be something as benign as a minor amount of cash ($110,000 is the minimum), a top-55 protected second round pick or draft rights to a player who is unlikely to come over to the NBA. The key is that all parties have to send something out. Trading a player for “nothing” isn’t actually a thing.
• In a multiple-team trade, each team must satisfy what is called the “touch rule”. The touch rule says that in a multiple-team trade, each team must touch at least two of the other teams in a deal. That can be as simple as sending cash, a protected pick or draft rights. But the touch rule must be satisfied by acquiring from or sending to at least two other teams in the deal.
• A handful of players can’t be traded due to various date-restrictions that don’t allow the player to be traded before the trade deadline. This season, that list includes:
• Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns)
• LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers)
• Stanley Johnson (San Antonio Spurs)
• Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• Maxi Kleber (Dallas Mavericks)
• C.J. McCollum (New Orleans Pelicans)
• Larry Nance Jr. (New Orleans Pelicans)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Dean Wade (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• Kemba Walker (Dallas Mavericks)
• Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors)

• A Traded Player Exception (TPE) is created when one team takes back less money in salary-matching for one player than they send out. TPEs are not traded, but are used to absorb players into the TPE without having to use salary-matching. TPEs are often created when team’s do a deal as laid out under the “Matching salary via other means” section.

Related

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Quite a few things have changed since we did our last round of cap space projections following 2022 free agency. Donovan Mitchell was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bojan Bogdanovic was traded to the Detroit Pistons and Patrick Beverley was moved to the Los Angeles Lakers. On the extension front, several veterans have reached contract extensions and multiple players signed rookie scale extensions.

There will be more trades to come with "Early Trade Season" opening soon. And there are going to be even more veteran extensions over the months to come.

With all that in mind, it’s time to look at some updated 2023 cap space projections.

(Note: 538’s 2022-23 NBA standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

1. Houston Rockets - $59.3 million
2. Indiana Pacers - $49.8 million
3. San Antonio Spurs - $47.1 million
4. Detroit Pistons - $44.8 million
5. Utah Jazz - $42.6 million
6. Los Angeles Lakers - $33.4 million
7. Orlando Magic - $32.8 million
8. Oklahoma City Thunder - $29.0 million
9. Charlotte Hornets - $18.4 million

Nine teams project to have cap space, and it could end up being fewer than that.

The Rockets seem likely to lead the cap space derby, as they have a roster that is mostly full of players on their rookie scale deals. Houston did knock a bit of their spending power off by inking Kevin Porter Jr. to an extension. But the Rockets got a great value, so it was smart to get that done at the expense of some 2022 spending power. Lastly, Houston seems like a near lock to have a bottom-three record, and thus a 14% chance at Victor Wembanyama.

Indiana could eat into some of their space by doing a renegotiation-and-extension with Myles Turner. Even if that happens, the Pacers should still have a sizeable chunk of cap space. That makes them a very interesting team, as they have a fun mix of young players and solid veterans, which supports them playing much better than was expected.

The Spurs seemingly have no interest in winning this year, as they’ve lost 11 straight as of this writing. They’re also liberally resting players whenever they can. That has San Antonio primed at a run at Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson. So, it should be a good pick, plus plenty of cap space for the Spurs this summer.

Detroit has had a lot of injuries, and that’s got them worse off than expected. But another high draft pick to team with an already exciting young core and nearly $45 million in spending power means the future remains bright. The Pistons did eat a bit into their spending power by signing Bojan Bogdanovic to an extension, but he’s still on a very tradable contract moving forward.

Utah is tough to peg. They’ve been better than expected, but have shown some signs of slipping over the last few weeks. Except the Jazz to get healthy and then give it a month or so to see where they are at. If they keep sliding in the standings, they could sell off the rest of their vets and this cap space projection could rise. If the Jazz play well, it makes it more likely they’ll keep some guys around and this number could drastically lessen. Keep an eye on Utah and the standings over the next two months.

The Lakers have more or less held steady, but by trading Talen Horton-Tucker for Patrick Beverley, they have the ability to clear over $30 million in cap space. The big question: Will Los Angeles sacrifice cap space and future draft picks to make a trade to help them win now?

Orlando could be a swing team. If they choose to keep players like Mo Bamba and Gary Harris, that’ll eat up all of the Magic’s potential cap space. That seems a little unlikely as both the frontcourt and guard lines are looking a bit crowded. And that’s true even despite lots of injuries. Expect Orlando to be a cap space team in July, in addition to being in the mix for Wembanyama or Henderson.

Oklahoma City tied up some future cap space by extending Kenrich Williams, but it was such a good value, that it was well worth it. The Thunder still have plenty of flexibility to play with, plus will likely add another good draft pick to the mix. One thing to watch? Roster spots are getting tight in OKC.

The Hornets remain a swing team. The Miles Bridges situation remains unsettled. If the Hornets were to keep control of his free agent rights, they won’t have cap space. If they set him free, and maybe move a veteran or two for expiring deals, Charlotte could create even more than what we’ve projected here. The Hornets are a team to keep an eye on over the next month or so.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Chicago Bulls
2. Memphis Grizzlies
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Sacramento Kings

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these four teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

The Grizzlies are the easiest team to slot in here. They’ve got a mostly full roster after extending their own players over the years. The only real free agent of note is Dillon Brooks, and there’s a decent chance he could be the next player to extend. But even with Brooks at a fair number for both sides and Memphis should have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Bulls, Wolves and Kings are all swing teams. If they choose to move on from some of their veterans (Nikola Vucevic, D’Angelo Russell and Harrison Barnes), then they could all be cap space teams. If they retain their rights to re-sign them, or move them in deals to bring in other players, they’ll be over the cap. But all could still be far enough under the tax to use the full MLE.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks
2. Boston Celtics
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Denver Nuggets
7. Golden State Warriors
8. LA Clippers
9. Miami Heat
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. New Orleans Pelicans
12. New York Knicks
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Phoenix Suns
15. Portland Trail Blazers
16. Toronto Raptors
17. Washington Wizards

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

The Cleveland Cavaliers fall into this group now, as they acquired Donovan Mitchell for several players late in the offseason. Instead of being a potential cap space team, the Cavs now have a core group locked in for the foreseeable future. If they re-sign Caris LeVert and/or Kevin Love, Cleveland will be working around the tax line.

Of this group, the teams that could end up with a bit more cap flexibility are Brooklyn, Dallas, Portland, Toronto and Washington.

Brooklyn remains in a weird spot. If Kyrie Irving walks, Kevin Durant might reissue his trade demand. At that point, who knows what the Nets cap space situation will be? At the very least, Brooklyn would have to come away by being well under the tax line.

The Mavericks have a few key free agents, plus a couple of players on partially guaranteed contracts they could move on from. If so, they’d free up some ability to make moves around Luka Doncic.

The Trail Blazers are only going to be flexible if they let Jerami Grant walk. That seems unlikely to happen, unless Portland draws a hard line at what they’ll extend Grant for. An extension for Grant is also likely. They’ll probably be right around, or slightly over, the tax with Grant back in the fold.

Toronto could potentially put themselves in position to have cap space, but that would mean moving on from Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. It’s more likely they’ll have those guys back, or have moved them in a trade, and that means the Raptors will be working around the tax line.

Washington has Bradley Beal on his massive new deal, but that’s really their only substantial long-term money. Their summer really hinges on what happens with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. If either re-signs for big money, the Wizards will be up against the tax.

When Jerami Grant’s name first surfaced in trade rumors last season with the Detroit Pistons, attached to that scuttlebutt was that Grant would insist upon an extension from whomever traded for him. A salary north of $25 million per year was bandied about as Grant’s starting point.

When the Portland Trail Blazers traded for Grant, nothing about an extension was really even mentioned. It was a possibility, but it was something left for “down the line”.

The reasons for that were twofold. The first reason is that the extension rules weren’t really going to allow for Grant to be traded and immediately extended. Sure, Portland and Detroit could have turned the Grant deal into an extend-and-trade transaction, but Grant would have left both money and years on the table. He was also far more likely to sign a standard Veteran Extension, as opposed to an extend-and-trade deal.

The second reason for not extending Grant right away was that the Trail Blazers wanted to see how he’d fit on the floor with their roster first. Grant was coming off of two seasons with rebuilding Detroit where he spent most of the time doing whatever he wanted. Not in a bad way, but more that Grant was the central hub and could facilitate the Pistons offense however he saw fit. If you want to be negative, a narrative of “good stats, bad team” built around Grant, and it was one his efficiency numbers, or lack thereof, supported.

Now, Grant has spent a quarter of a season in Portland and he’s erased some of those efficiency worries. Surrounded by better talent, the versatile forward isn’t taking tough, late-clock, contested looks quite as often. Because of that, Grant’s efficiency is back up around the levels it was at when he played on good Thunder and Nuggets teams.

That puts us back to the extension conversation. Grant himself recently said it’s not something he’s focused on right now. There’s probably some truth there, but for a valid reason. Until January 6, Grant isn’t eligible to extend for more than the limits of what he could have gotten via an extend-and-trade deal. That means Grant has no reason to think about extending until that restriction lifts.

For Grant, when he’s eligible, the decision comes down to extending or waiting to cash in as an unrestricted free agent this fall. Let’s break down what Grant could be looking at contract-wise.

The Veteran Extension

If you’ve followed along the Grant rumors, you probably heard the figures $112 million or $28 million thrown around for Grant. That’s probably because that’s the maximum he’d be eligible to extend for. Here’s what a full Veteran Extension for Grant would look like:

• 2023-24: $25,146,000
• 2024-25: $27,157,680
• 2025-26: $29,169,360
• 2026-27: $31,181,040
• Total: four years, $112,654,080

That’s the max Grant can get in a veteran extension. It’s a 20% bump off his current salary of $20,955,000 with 8% raises in the following years.

Given Grant is delivering on his currently nearly $21 million salary, and where the salary cap is heading, a contract that averages just over $28 million per season doesn’t seem unreasonable. However, it’s important to note that Grant will be in his early-30s throughout this extension.

Re-signing with the Trail Blazers as a free agent

Let’s say Grant continues to average 22.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, with a steal and a block per game. Oh, and let’s say he continues to hit for pretty great 47/47/76 shooting splits too. Grant may look for more than what he can get via a Veteran Extension. Here’s the max Portland could offer Grant as an unrestricted free agent this summer:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the 30% of the cap maximum Grant is eligible for as a player with nine years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $40.2 million.

That’s probably too much. Unless the Blazers feel really confident Grant is going to be an All-Star or All-NBA guy for at least three years of that deal, they likely won’t want to lock in that much long-term salary.

Signing with another team as a free agent

If, for some reason, Grant isn’t happy with the fit in Portland, he could leave as a free agent. It was somewhat of a shocker when he left a great situation in Denver in 2020 to sign with the rebuilding Pistons. So, there is some precedent. Here’s what a max deal with a new team would look like:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,230,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years, as Grant would be changing teams.

This deal is about $60 million or so more than Grant would lock in via a Veteran Extension with Portland. In a summer where he’d rate as one of the best available free agents, Grant could cash in. Currently, five teams project to have enough cap space to offer Grant a max deal. If one of them gets desperate as free agent targets dry up, Grant could land a huge contract.

Summary

Jerami Grant is turning in an incredible season. With better talent around him, Grant has seen his efficiency go back up, even though he’s maintaining his Detroit-volume. That means Grant should be in line for a big contract.

The question becomes: How big? How much can you pay for a combo forward that is about to hit his early-30s?

The answer is likely to be: A lot.

Grant’s not going to land a max deal. The five teams in position to offer that aren’t really great fits. Unless the Indiana Pacers really want to accelerate their rebuild (and that would mean moving on from Myles Turner), none of the cap space teams have a real need for Grant. The Detroit Pistons have been there, done that. The Houston Rockets are already overflowing with forwards, same for the Orlando Magic. The San Antonio Spurs are prioritizing youth and spreading money around, while the Utah Jazz are sort of tough to peg, as they aren’t fully in rebuilding mode. At least, they aren’t there yet.

That makes an extension with Portland Grant’s best bet. The Trail Blazers only recently dug themselves out of salary cap hell. After clearing away C.J. McCollum’s deal, Portland was able to reset their books a bit. They re-signed Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic for a combined $170 million over the next four years, but that’s fine. They are both delivering on their new deals.

The Blazers also extended Damian Lillard again. That should keep him in Portland for the productive balance of his career. And Joe Cronin inked Nassir Little to a team-friendly extension worth $28 million over four seasons.

Now, look for Portland to lock up another member of their new core. Grant’s side will probably start by asking for the full $112.6 million over four years. It’s really not a bad starting point, especially with how well Grant has fit in with the Blazers.

If that’s a bit rich for Portland, they could always counter with something in the $26-$27M AAV range. That could look like this:

• 2023-24: $25,000,000
• 2024-25: $26,000,000
• 2025-26: $27,000,000
• 2026-27: $28,000,000
• Total: four years, $106,000,000

That’s an average of $26.5M AAV. That seems to be fair value, considering the deal will take Grant through his age-33 season. Ideally, Portland would structure the deal to decline in value, but that would likely have to wait until the offseason. Because of the 20% cap in the first-year salary bump on an extension, it’s hard to pay Grant enough in first-year salary that a declining deal would still give him enough overall value.

The next question: Is $6 million or so enough to really quibble over? If Grant wants the maximum amount of $112.6 million in a Veteran Extension, Portland should just pay it. They’ve finally got the versatile, offense-defense, combo forward they’ve been looking for. To lose him over $6 million would be bad business for the Blazers.

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last four years, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and a couple of weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

• January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
• January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and include seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
• December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchanged for Dante Exum
• December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the results of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens in approximately three weeks.

Here’s an initial list of players to keep an eye on:

Jae Crowder (SF, PHX)

Contract Status: 1 year, $10.18M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $10,183,800 

This one is almost cheating, as everyone is waiting on a trade that sends Crowder away from Phoenix. Crowder requested a trade over the summer and hasn’t returned to the Suns, even with Cam Johnson out long-term. It’s just a matter of time before Crowder is dealt.

John Collins (PF, ATL)

Contract Status: 4 years, $102M through 2025-26 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $23,500,000 

The Hawks have been talking Collins’ trades for the better part of three years now. This year it feels like it really could happen. Collins’ role in the offense has shrunk after Atlanta acquired Dejounte Murray. In addition, Atlanta appears to be very tax-conscious right now. That’s not just for this season, but next season as well. That’s one of the motivating factors in talking about trading Collins.

Bojan Bogdanovic (SF, DET)

Contract Status: 1 year, $19.55M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $19,550,000 

Yes, Detroit recently extended Bogdanovic after acquiring him shortly before the preseason. But that extension makes Bogdanovic an even more interesting trade asset. A contender can acquire him now and feel good about Bogdanovic sticking around beyond just the rest of this season.

Jakob Poeltl (C, SAS)

Contract Status: 1 year, $9.40M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $9,398,148 

Poeltl is high on everyone’s list for the most likely center to be traded. He’s a top-tier rim protector, solid rebounder, better-than-you-think scorer and good passer. And Poeltl has a team-friendly deal at just $9.4 million. Unfortunately, that deal also makes it unlikely Poeltl will extend. So, if the Spurs think Poeltl might leave in free agency, exploring the trade market is best for a clearly rebuilding (read: tanking) team.

Myles Turner (C, IND)

Contract Status: 1 year, $18M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000 

Turner’s destiny is apparently to be in trade rumors for the rest of his career. But, as we recently wrote about, it’s more likely that Turner will do a very rare renegotiate-and-extend deal than it is that he’ll be traded. But until the deadline passes, Indiana’s big man will be in trade rumors every day.

Buddy Hield (SG, IND)

Contract Status: 2 years, $40.46M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $21,177,750 

Hield is in the same boat as Turner, as far as trade rumors go. But with the Pacers playing well, and not inclined to tank, Hield may stay put. His situation is slightly different, as Indiana has a bunch of younger guard prospects that could slide into Hield’s spot in the lineup this year or next.

Jordan Nwora (PF, MIL)

Contract Status: 2 years, $6.2M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $3,000,000 

Nwora is one of the lesser-known name on this list, but he’s an interesting trade candidate because of his $3 million salary. If the Bucks are going to make a deal for a rotation upgrade, it’s very likely that Nwora, and probably Grayson Allen, will be involved.

Patty Mills (PG, BKN)

Contract Status: 2 years, $6.8M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $6,479,000 

Mills has more or less fallen out of the Nets rotation. Even while Kyrie Irving was serving his suspension, Brooklyn went with other guards ahead of Mills. If the Nets are going to make a deal, Mills and his $6.5 million deal will likely be involved.

Mike Muscala (PF, OKC)

Contract Status: 2 years, $7M through 2023-24 (includes Club Option)

2022-23 Salary: $3,500,000 

Despite his recent (minor) injury, Muscala will be someone teams looking for a big will ask about. He could be a solid 15-20 minutes per game contributor on a contender.

Mo Bamba (C, ORL)

Contract Status: 2 years, $20.6M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 fully non-guaranteed)

2022-23 Salary: $10,300,000 

This one will take a bit longer, as Bamba isn’t trade-eligible until January 15. But Orlando has a glut of bigs now, and Bamba is on a very tradable deal. He’ll be in trade rumors as soon as he’s eligible to be dealt.

KZ Okpala and Chima Moneke (F, SAC)

Okpala Contract Status: 2 years, $3.97M through 2023-24 (2022-23 $500k guaranteed, 2023-24 fully non-guaranteed)

Okpala 2022-23 Salary: $1,902,133 

Moneke Contract Status: 2 years, $2.74M through 2023-24 (2022-23 $500k guaranteed, 2023-24 fully non-guaranteed)

Moneke 2022-23 Salary: $1,017,781 

Sometimes a team makes a fairly minor signing, pays a bit more than they should have, and they undo it about as soon as they can. If the Kings are making any kind of moves, it’s likely Okpala or Moneke will be involved.

JaVale McGee (C, DAL)

Contract Status: 3 years, $17.2M through 2024-25 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $5,461,219 

Similar to the Kings players above, but not really a minor signing, is McGee. After beginning the year as a starter, McGee is now buried in the Mavs rotation. This one screams a trade to correct a mistake of a summer signing.

Danilo Gallinari (PF, BOS)

Contract Status: 2 years, $13.28M through 2023-24 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $6,479,000 

This signing wasn’t a mistake, but Gallinari’s torn ACL during EuroBasket completely changes the context. Boston is kind of out of tradable deals, because their best contracts belong to rotation players. If the Celtics are going to upgrade their rotation, it could mean Gallinari being traded. Then, look for him to possibly opt out, and re-sign with Boston again in free agency next summer.

Amir Coffey (SG, LAC)

Contract Status: 3 years, $11M through 2024-25

2022-23 Salary: $3,395,062 

Coffey is a pretty good player. But if the Clippers are going to make a rotation upgrade at any point, they’ll need to part with a couple of good players. Coffey’s $3.4 million salary is the perfect throw-in salary amount to plus-up a trade. And he’s more than a throw-in player, which makes him a nice trade asset. The drawback? LA needs wing depth due to the shaky injury histories of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. That could see the Clips hold back from dealing Coffey.

NBA trade season is right around the corner. The early trade window opens on December 15, which is when the vast majority of players who signed deals over the offseason become trade-eligible. And if we’re closing in on trade season, that must mean it’s time for a fresh batch of Myles Turner trade rumors!

This is Year 8 for Turner, with all of them coming with the Indiana Pacers. For at least four or five of those years, he’s been one of the most-often mentioned players in trade rumors. The reasons for that are two-fold for Turner.

Keeping it on the floor first, Turner is a somewhat unique player. He has the ability to stretch the floor on offense, while protecting the rim on defense. That makes Turner fairly plug-and-play in most systems that NBA teams run.

Secondly, but of equal importance, Turner is on a very tradable contract. He’s in the final year of a four-year, $72 million rookie scale extension that he signed in 2018. Any NBA contract is tradable, but a deal for less than $20 million is generally very easy to match salary for.

Combine the production and the contract, and Turner is consistently in trade rumors. Then, factor in that he’ll only turn 27 years old in March, plus the Pacers being in a rebuild, and the rumor mill is hitting overdrive.

But…Turner is on an expiring contract. That means a new deal is coming soon. Traded or not, Myles Turner is only eight months (at most!) from getting a big new contract. What we’re going to do today is look at what that new contract might look like.

The Veteran Extension

Myles Turner is eligible through the end of the league year to sign a veteran extension with the Indiana Pacers. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Turner’s ability to extend with Indiana runs all the way through June 30.

Here’s what a maximum veteran extension would look like for Turner:

• 2023-24: $21,600,000
• 2024-25: $23,328,000
• 2025-26: $25,056,000
• 2026-27: $26,784,000
• Total: four years, $96,768,000

That’s a 120% raise off of Turner’s $18,000,000 salary for 2022-23, with 8% raises in the years after that.

At first glance, that doesn’t look bad. It’s nearly $100 million for Turner into his early-30s. But it’s well short of Turner’s maximum salary that he could collect as a free agent. In addition, with the cap projected to go way up over the next few years, Turner would be better off betting on himself than taking even a slightly under-market extension.

Re-signing with the Pacers as a free agent

Let’s say Myles Turner sticks in Indiana despite the rumors (he’s made it seven years already!) and the Pacers rebuild seems ahead of schedule. Maybe Turner will want to re-sign with Indiana.

The Pacers can offer him a max deal that would look like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% max Turner is eligible for with eight years or service. This deal also includes the maximum 8% raises for Turner.

An average annual value (AAV) of $46.6 million feels a bit steep for Turner. You’d have to believe he can become an All-NBA center to commit that much money to him at this point. But, we’ve now established the absolute top-end max we’re looking at for the Pacers big man.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

Continuing with our scenarios, let’s say Turner isn’t traded (again, he’s made it seven years already!), but he and/or the Pacers are ready to move on this summer. Turner will be an unrestricted free agent and here’s the max he could get from another team:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,230,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s still 30% of the cap, but the raises are only 5%. And, because Turner would be changing teams, he’d be limited to only signing a four-year deal. Players can only get a five-year contract when re-signing with their current team.

That’s an AAV of $43 million or so. If we compare to a four-year max from the Pacers, it’s a difference of about $2 million per season in terms of AAV. If a $43 million AAV still seems steep, remember that we’re setting max points here.

We’ve now got three max data points locked in: The Veteran Extension, max with the Pacers and max with another team. But there are a couple of other scenarios we need to consider for Turner, as well.

The Extend-and-Trade

You might have heard that Myles Turner is in trade rumors. (Just kidding! We know you know that.) But what if a team wanted Turner locked in for years beyond this season? The Pacers and the acquiring team, along with Turner, could agree on an extend-and-trade deal. It would look like this:

• 2022-23: $18,000,000
• 2023-24: $18,900,000
• 2024-25: $19,845,000
• Total: three years, $56,745,000

We included the current year for Turner, since an extend-and-trade is extremely restrictive. In an extend-and-trade, the total length of the contract can only be three seasons. In this case, Turner can only add two new years onto his current deal. In addition, raises in an extend-and-trade are limited to 5%.

As you can see, Turner would be adding (in relative terms) very little to his current salary in an extend-and-trade. Essentially, Turner would have to really, really want to be heading to the acquiring team to do a deal like this. A more likely scenario would be Turner is traded to a new team and simply signs a new contract as a free agent in July.

Extending after a trade

If Myles Turner was to be traded to another team, he could still extend with that team. Unfortunately, he’d have to wait six months to sign an extension which is larger than the extend-and-trade scenario laid out above. That makes timing really, really important to watch as to when Turner would theoretically be traded.

And, in that extension, the acquiring team would still be capped at offering the Veteran Extension. That contract would look exactly the same as laid out above.

The Renegotiate-and-Extend

It’s extremely rare for an NBA contract to be renegotiated. First, a player must be extension-eligible. That’s a fairly small list of players each season. Of that list, the player must be on a team that has cap space available in order to complete the renegotiation portion of the renegotiate-and-extend.

Going back to 2015, only three players have completed a renegotiate-and-extend deal. Robert Covington did a four-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017. And Danilo Gallinari (two years) and Wilson Chandler (four years) signed renegotiate-and-extend deals with the Denver Nuggets in 2015.

Myles Turner fits both of these criteria at this moment. Turner is extension-eligible and the Indiana Pacers are sitting on up to $30 million in available cap space.

Pegging what an renegotiate-and-extend could look like is a bit tricky. Because the team would use existing cap space, they aren’t really limited to just the 120% allowed in a Veteran Extension.

That means it’s all about negotiation on that first-year salary, but that also has an impact on the subsequent years as well.

In a renegotiation-and-extend deal, a player is eligible to take their contract all the way up to their maximum salary, assuming the team has enough available cap space to do so. In this case, Turner makes $18 million for this season, with a maximum salary of $37,096,500. That’s a difference of roughly $19.1 million, which the Pacers are certainly able to give Turner given their existing cap space.

In full, if Turner did a renegotiate-and-extend deal for the max he’s allowed, it would look like this:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500
• 2023-24: $40,064,220
• 2024-25: $43,031,940
• 2025-26: $45,999,660
• 2026-27: $48,967,380
• Total: five years, $215,159,700

This contract would take Turner’s salary from $18,000,000 to his max of $37,096,500 for this season. Then the additional years would have an 8% raise on them. Once again, the renegotiation to the max allowable for Turner is made possible by the Pacers still having up to $30 million in cap space available.

It’s important to note that the above is the max Turner could get in a renegotiate-and-extend deal. The Pacers and Turner could agree on any number in terms of renegotiated 2022-23 salary up to his max, and they could also agree to deal that runs less than five total years, or less than 8% raises.

In addition, Indiana and Turner could agree to get really funky with a new deal and lower the first season of the extension by up to 40% off of the renegotiated 2022-23 salary. That would bring Turner’s deal in the first year of the extension in 2023-24 down to around $22 million. Essentially, Turner would get a bonus in this current league year, using Indiana’s leftover cap space, and then tack on a few years at a more reasonable number moving forward.

Note: Turner can only do a renegotiation-and-extension with Pacers.

Summary

We’ve given five options for Myles Turner’s next deal. We can eliminate the Veteran Extension and the Extend-and-Trade as viable options, as they aren’t going to pay Turner enough for him to sign either of those deals. He’d simply be leaving too much money on the table.

That leaves three realistic options: Turner re-signs with the Pacers, leaves Indiana in free agency or does a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal to stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known.

Despite the fact that Turner is constantly in trade rumors, it’s important to note that he’s never actually been traded. There has to be something to that. Players rarely make it through years and years of rumors to end up staying with a team. When that happens, it’s generally because the player and the team have no desire to end their relationship.

With that in mind, a Renegotiate-and-Extend may be Turner’s best option. It doesn’t rule out a trade long-term, but it would increase the odds of Turner sticking around in Indiana. The key is to keep Turner a viable trade asset on the next contract.

If the Pacers have no other plans for their nearly $30 million in remaining cap space, why not use $19 million or so to bring Turner up to his max of $37.1 million for this season? Think of that as a bonus for his years of service to the Pacers and for signing what will likely be a balanced (read: team-friendly) extension in the subsequent years. And it’s those subsequent years that matter.

Here’s a proposal for a deal that could work for both Turner and Indiana:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
• 2023-24: $24,000,000
• 2024-25: $25,920,000
• 2025-26: $27,840,000
• 2026-27: $29,760,000
• Total: five years, $144.6 million

This deal would see Turner get a bump up to his full max for this season using some of Indiana’s available cap space. Then, he would add on what is essentially a four-year, $107.5 million extension. That’s an AAV of almost $27 million per year. That’s kind of right in the sweet spot between the $25 and $30 million per year value that seems fair for turner on his next deal.

If you prefer, add the $19 million or so extra from the renegotiation portion of the deal, and Turner would get roughly $126 million in new money. That would bring the AAV for the new years to about $31.5 million. Just over the target range, but without getting crazy.

The other option for the Pacers, and perhaps a preferable one, would be to reverse the cap hits on the extension. That deal would look like this:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
• 2023-24: $29,760,000
• 2024-25: $27,840,000
• 2025-26: $25,920,000
• 2026-27: $24,000,000
• Total: five years, $144.6 million

The overall money remains the same, but Turner takes just less than an 8% decline in salary year over year. That way, when Turner is approaching his early-30s in the later years of the deal, the cap hits are reasonable for a player of that age and he remains tradable from Indiana’s point of view.

Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers are in an interesting spot. Trade rumors will continue to be floated, probably even after Turner signs a new deal. But because the rare circumstances exist to do a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal, it would behoove the Pacers and Turner to take advantage and at least extend their partnership for a little while longer.

When NBA teams lose a player for the season due to injury, they’re limited in how they can replace that player. There is no injured reserve in the NBA. Unless teams are down several players, they don’t get an extra roster spot.

The NBA functions under a soft cap, but with a hard cap limiter that can be triggered in some situations. That can make it hard to sign a replacement player. By the time the season starts, the vast majority of teams are already operating over the cap, with limited resources available to sign a player.

There are always trades, but in that case, you might be robbing Peter to pay Paul and creating another roster issue for yourself.

However, the NBA does have one tool that teams can apply for when they lose a player for the season. The Disabled Player Exception is an exception that teams can be granted to help replace an injured player, but there are some restrictions.

Here’s a quick Q&A as to what a DPE is and how they can and can’t be used.

How do teams get a Disabled Player Exception (DPE)?

Teams have to petition the NBA in order to be granted a DPE. It’s not an automatic thing when a player is injured. A team must apply to the NBA for a DPE.

From there, it’s up to either an NBA-designated doctor or the league’s Fitness to Play panel to determine the extent of the injury to the player the DPE is being asked for. If the determination is made that the injured player is substantially more likely than not to miss the rest of the season, the DPE is granted to the team that petitioned for it.

Teams have until January 15 of each season to apply for a DPE. If a player is ruled out for the season after that, teams cannot petition for a DPE. If a player is deemed to be out for the subsequent season, the team will need to reapply during that next league year for a new DPE.

How much is a DPE for in terms of salary?

The DPE is worth one-half of the injured player’s salary, with a maximum value equal to that of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception for the season in which the DPE is granted.

Example: If the injured player’s salary for whom the DPE is granted has a salary of $10 million for the 2022-23, the DPE value would be worth $5 million.

If the injured player was making $30 million for 2022-23, the DPE value would be capped at $10,490,000, which is equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE for the 2022-23 season.

How can a DPE be used?

The DPE is a unique exception from other salary cap exceptions. Exceptions like the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level, Taxpayer Mid-Level, Room and Bi-Annual Exceptions are signing exceptions only. They must be used to sign a free agent(s).

Traded Player Exceptions (TPE) can be used in two ways: teams can trade for a player (or players) whose salary fits inside of the TPE or they can use the TPE to claim a player off waivers whose salary fits inside of the TPE.

The DPE is unique in that it can be used to sign a player, trade for a player or to claim a player off waivers. However, there are restrictions with the DPE that do not exist for the other exceptions.

What are the restrictions to a DPE?

Unlike the signing exceptions (NTMLE, Tax MLE, Room and BAE), the DPE can only be used to sign a player to a remainder-of-season contract.

The remainder-of-season condition also exists in trades and waiver claims as well. If a team trades for a player or claims that player off waivers, they have to be on an ending (commonly called expiring) contract. And there cannot be an option year after, either. It must be a true ending contract.

In addition, the DPE can also only be used to acquire one player. Unlike several of the signing exceptions and TPEs, the DPE cannot be used to acquire more than one player.

Essentially, teams are granted the DPE to replace the one injured player for the remainder of that current season only.

For re-signing purposes, teams do inherit whatever applicable form of Bird Rights would come after acquiring a player via a DPE.

Do you get an additional roster spot when granted a DPE?

No. Teams are still bound by the maximum of 15 players on standard contracts.

In a normal, non-COVID-impacted season, the only way teams can gain extra roster spots is via the Hardship Exemption. If a team has at least four players out for at least three regular season games, they can petition the NBA for a Hardship Exemption, which would grant the team an extra roster spot.

Technically, a team could fill a Hardship roster spot via a DPE. However, when that fourth player is ready to return from injury or illness, the team would need to get back into roster compliance by waiving or trading a player to get back to 15 players on standard contracts.

When does a DPE expire?

Unlike signing exceptions, which expire at the end of the regular season, and TPEs, which have a one-year expiration date from the date of creation, a DPE can only be used through March 10.

The idea with the DPE is to give a team an opportunity to add a player through the trade deadline and the early part of what is now commonly called “buyout season”.

A DPE will also expire when used. A DPE is also rendered void if the injured player returns or if the injured player is traded to another team.

If a team only uses a portion of a DPE, the unused portion expires, as the DPE can only be used to acquire one player.

Does a DPE prorate in value as the season goes along?

No. Unlike a signing exception, the DPE always retains its full value until it expires or is used.

What happens if a DPE is used and then the injured player returns?

Nothing. The player acquired via the DPE is unaffected. This is basically seen a stroke of good fortune that a player thought to be out for the remainder of the season was able to return.

Reminder: Because no roster spot is created through a DPE, there would not need to be corresponding roster move for the injured player to return.

Can you trade for an injured player and then apply for a DPE?

No. The player must have been injured while under contract to the team in order for that team to apply for a DPE.

Does a DPE count against the salary cap and luxury tax?

Yes, when used to acquire a player, whatever portion of a DPE is used will count against both the salary cap and the luxury tax.

In addition, if a team is hard capped at the tax apron, they cannot exceed the apron via use of a DPE. A hard-capped team is still required to have a team salary that is no higher than that of the tax apron.

Does a DPE offer any sort of short or long-term salary relief for the injured player?

No. There is a process under which teams can petition to have a player’s salary removed due to career-ending injury. But that process is independent of the DPE process.

Do any teams currently have DPEs available?

The Boston Celtics have a DPE of $3,239,500 which was granted for Danilo Gallinari.

There are no other current DPEs available for use.

What are some recent cases where a DPE was used?

In 2017-18, after Gordon Hayward broke his left leg on opening night, the Boston Celtics were granted a DPE of $8,406,000. That was the equivalent of that season’s Non-Taxpayer MLE, as Hayward’s salary for that season was nearly $30 million.

Boston used that DPE to sign Greg Monroe for $5 million after he was waived by the Phoenix Suns.

Is a petition for a DPE ever declined?

Yes. Last season, the Chicago Bulls petitioned for a DPE for Patrick Williams after he tore ligaments in his wrist early in the 2021-22 season. The NBA denied the application, as it was deemed Williams had a chance to return for that season. That proved prescient, as Williams did return in late-March.

In addition, the Indiana Pacers had also applied for a DPE for Edmond Sumner last season. However, Sumner was traded by Indiana before that DPE was granted, which rendered the application void.

When the San Antonio Spurs re-signed Jakob Poeltl to a three-year, $26.25 million in 2020, they were betting that the flashes he showed would become regular production. So far, so good on that bet for the Spurs. Poeltl has become a solid finisher around the rim, while continuing to up his rebounding and rim protection.

Now, it’s time for Poeltl’s next deal. But that’s a little more complicated than it might seem.

Like some others we’ve talked about in this series, including Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid, Poeltl is signed to a team-friendly deal. That’s great for the Spurs in the moment, but that limits how much Poeltl can extend for.

Let’s start with the simplest question: Is Jakob Poeltl worth extending? This should be a resounding yes. Poeltl just turned 27, which means he’s entering his prime years as a center. He’s one of the better rim protectors in the NBA. And he’s a top-tier rebounder. As stated above, he’s improved his finishing and his moves around the basket. Poeltl is also a better passer than you think. Yes, his free throw shooting is poor, but there are maybe some signs it’s improving (he’s edging closer to 60% this season).

Add it all up, and Poeltl is going to get paid. It’ll either be by the Spurs or someone else, but he’s going to get a nice new deal. Let’s examine what that new deal could look like.

The Dinwiddie Extension

As we wrote about extensively in the Nowell and Reid piece, Jakob Poeltl is eligible for the Dinwiddie Extension. Because his contract is so team-friendly, Poeltl is eligible to sign for up to 120% of the estimated average salary in Year 1 of an extension. That extension can include up to 8% raises could be for up to four years. It would look like this:

• 2023-24: $12,950,400
• 2024-25: $13,986,432
• 2025-26: $15,022,464
• 2026-27: $16,058,496
• Total: four years, $58,017,792

That’s just about $14.5 million per season. For reference, that would put Poeltl at 15th in terms of Average Annual Value for all centers. He’d be nestled right between Mitchell Robinson at $15 million and Brook Lopez at $13 million.

That seems maybe a tad low. When you consider where the cap is headed, plus the value teams place on rim protection, Poeltl should be able to pull in more than $14.5 million per season.

One last note on this type of extension: If Poeltl was signed this kind of extension, it would come with a six-month trade restriction. Essentially, the Spurs couldn’t sign Poeltl to this kind of deal and then immediately turn around and trade him. That leads us to the next type of extension.

The Extend-and-Trade

There are a number of contenders who would probably love to send a draft pick to the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs for Jakob Poeltl. It’s likely that pick, and possibly a player, sent to the Spurs would be even better if Poeltl was already locked into a new contract and not a pending free agent.

That’s where the extend-and-trade comes into play. However, there are limitations that probably make this a no-go for Poeltl.

In an extend-and-trade, the total contract is limited to only three seasons. Thus, Poeltl could only add two seasons onto his deal, because the current season counts towards the three seasons allowed. That part probably isn’t the end of the world.

Where things would break down is that the extension is only allowed to have a 5% raise over the final season of the current contract. In Poeltl’s case, that would make a new extend-and-trade deal look like this:

• 2022-23: $9,398,148
• 2023-24: $9,868,055
• 2024-25: $10,361,458
• Total: three years, $29,627,661

If $14.5M million AAV isn’t enough, then roughly $9.8 million AAV certainly won’t be enough. That’s less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE and some contender without hard cap worries would certainly sign Poeltl to a deal for the full MLE.

Extending after a trade

If Jakob Poeltl was to be traded to another team, he could still extend with that team. Unfortunately, he’d have to wait six months to sign an extension which is larger than the extend-and-trade scenario laid out above. That makes timing really, really important to watch as to when Poeltl would theoretically be traded.

And, in that extension, the acquiring team would still be capped at offering the Dinwiddie Extension. That contract would look exactly the same as laid out above.

Re-signing with the Spurs as a free agent

The most likely course of action for Jakob Poeltl seems to be to let things play out to unrestricted free agency. It’s the only way for him to get a contract that’s worth more than $58 million over four years allowable by the Dinwiddie Extension.

For reference, a max deal (which isn’t happening for Poeltl) would be:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the cap max with 8% raises.

That’s obviously not going to happen, no matter how much of a Jakob Poeltl fan you may be. But it does set an absolute top-end range for negotiations. That’ll come in later.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Let’s say Jakob Poeltl and the Spurs are ready to part ways. Then he’d be eligible for the following max deal from another team:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,230,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the full 30% of the cap max with 5% raises.

Again, this isn’t anything Poeltl will get as a free agent, but now we have our ranges set. And that’s where the negotiating comes in.

Finding middle ground

We know the max the San Antonio Spurs can offer Jakob Poeltl right now is roughly $58 million over four years. We know the max another team can offer Poeltl in free agency this summer is almost $173 million over four years. We don’t really need to cover the max the Spurs can offer, because it will never get to that.

So, our window ends up being somewhere between $58 million and roughly three times that amount at $173 million.

That’s a pretty big range for negotiations. That leaves us to finding recent comps to work off of. We already said that the $14.5 million per year that Poeltl could make via the Dinwiddie Extension seems a bit low. So, let’s look at the next few players on the highest paid centers list.

• Jarrett Allen - $20 million AAV
• Myles Turner - $18 million AAV
• Jusuf Nurkic - $17.5 million AAV
• Steven Adams - $17.5 million AAV (note: this is Adams’ current deal, not his recent extension)
• Jonas Valanciunas - $15 million AAV
• Mitchell Robinson - $15 million AAV

That’s not a bad list of comps for Poeltl. He’s younger than a few of those players, older than a few others, but in range with all of them age-wise.

Production-wise, Poeltl is a better defender than most of the list. He’s a better rebounder the, or on par with, the entire list. Offensively, Poeltl is probably the equal to all but Myles Turner (his shooting ability sets him apart) and Jusuf Nurkic (the best all-around player of this bunch).

Now, we have our comp list and their average salaries on their current deals. If we factor in a slight upward-ness in salary, because the cap is climbing, we can land at a what seems like a fair value for Poeltl of about $18 million AAV.

One last thing to note, Mitchell Robinson’s contract is frontloaded and descends year over year. That could be a smart structure for the Spurs to take if they re-sign Poeltl. They won’t likely need the extra cap space in the next year or two, but could down the line. And having Poeltl on a lower number in the further out season will keep him a very tradable asset.

A reasonable middle ground deal could look something like this for Poeltl:

• 2023-24: $20,500,000
• 2024-25: $18,860,000
• 2025-26: $17,220,000
• 2026-27: $15,580,000
• Total: four years, $72,160,000

That would be a max decline of 8% from year-to-year over the life of the deal, while hitting almost exactly at $18 million AAV.

Summary

It doesn’t really make sense for Jakob Poeltl to sign a Dinwiddie Extension right now. He’d likely be leaving money on the table. If the San Antonio Spurs could get him to ink that sort of extension, that would be a major win for them.

Instead, it makes sense for both sides to let things play out. If the Spurs want to go full cap space, they can just let Poeltl leave this summer. If they see him as a part of the future, they can still beat any offer that any other team can offer him. And, they can do so while keeping Poeltl on a still-tradable contract too.

Rim protectors that can rebound and aren’t a complete zero on offense, are very valuable players. Poeltl is set to be one of the better free agents available this summer, in addition to being one of the top available centers. That’s going to get Poeltl paid, whether by the Spurs or someone else.

Veteran extensions in the NBA are complicated. For one set of players, those who are stars (or near-stars) but on less than maximum contracts, it often makes little sense to extend. These are players like Jaylen Brown, Domantas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet.

On the other end, you have players on maximum deals who are established All-NBA talents. In recent years, those players have chosen to lock in another max contract via extension. This offseason, Devin Booker, Damian Lillard and Karl-Anthony Towns are good examples of that group.

In the middle, you have non-max players that don’t have star upside. For them, an extension probably makes sense. They can ink an extension and stay with a team where they’ve earned a rotation role. Recent examples of these players are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Harris and Taurean Prince.

But there’s another group of extension-eligible players. They’re often somewhere between the non-max players and the near-star group. These players are often brimming with potential, but haven’t quite broken out. Or they’re on an undervalued deal, but not likely to truly cash in as a free agent.

For these players, what we’re going to call the “Dinwiddie Extension” makes sense.

What is the Dinwiddie Extension? As you probably guessed, we’re naming it after Spencer Dinwiddie, as he was the most recent recognizable player to sign this type of extension. When with the Brooklyn Nets, Dinwiddie got his career on track after a series of false starts. That earned Dinwiddie a three-year, $34.4 million extension.

In previous pieces about Jaylen Brown and Pascal Siakam, we wrote about how these two players extending makes little sense. That’s because of the rules limiting many players to only a modest bump in first-year salary of an extension of 120% of the final year’s salary.

However, in a Dinwiddie Extension, players who are on team-friendly (read: underpaid) contracts, they are eligible for a bigger bump in first-year salary. In this case, these players are eligible to sign an extension worth 120% of that season’s estimated average salary. In both a standard Veteran Extension and a Dinwiddie Extension, the player is also eligible for up to 8% raises off the first-year salary.

The current maximum Dinwiddie Extension looks like this:

• 2023-24: $12,950,400
• 2024-25: $13,986,432
• 2025-26: $15,022,464
• 2026-27: $16,058,496
• Total: four years, $58,017,792

That’s 120% of the estimated average salary for 2022-23 ($10,792,000) with 8% raises.

Now, as with almost any extension, players and teams can negotiate the terms of this type of extension. They could agree to less than the maximum allowable amount in Year 1. They could do less than 8% raises. And, as always, they could add a player option or team option onto the final season.

Often, players who sign the Dinwiddie Extension are coming off a minimum contract, or they are coming off a deal that pays them less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. The estimate average salary plus 120% is often in the range of what a player could get coming off a Non-Taxpayer MLE deal.

The most recent player to sign a Dinwiddie Extension was, coincidentally, Dinwiddie’s Dallas Mavericks teammate Dorian Finney-Smith. The versatile forward was completing a three-year, $12 million contract that paid him $4 million flat per season.

Before reaching free agency, Finney-Smith signed a Dinwiddie Extension that looks like this:

• 2022-23: $12,402,000
• 2023-24: $13,394,160
• 2024-25: $14,386,320
• 2025-26: $15,378,480
• Total: four years, $55,560,960

This deal was 120% of the estimated average salary with 8% raises. Finney-Smith was also able to negotiate a player option on the final season.

With that framework in mind, let’s look forward at who might be next up for a Dinwiddie Extension.

Two players we want to cover here are Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Recently, The Athletic reported that the Wolves have begun extension negotiations for both Nowell and Reid.

Minnesota is capped out for the foreseeable future. Karl-Anthony Towns is signed for more than $294 million through 2027-28. Rudy Gobert is owed $169.6 million through 2025-26. Anthony Edwards will undoubtedly ink a five-year, maximum rookie scale extension (likely with Designated Player language) next summer. That will be three players on max deals.

That leaves the Wolves in a spot where they need to lock up talented players to long-term extensions wherever possible. Thus, the negotiations with Nowell and Reid have begun.

Jaylen Nowell

Let’s start with Jaylen Nowell, as he’s kind of a fascinating test case of projecting value within the terms of a Dinwiddie Extension.

Prior to this season, a look at Nowell’s career stat lines shows an interesting player, but not one necessarily worth $58 million over four years. But you have to look a little deeper.

Nowell’s rookie season was spent mostly with the Iowa Wolves of the G League, as he saw limited NBA action. In the G League, Nowell was pretty dominant. He scored 21 points per game on 49/44/73 shooting splits.

The next two seasons, Nowell played himself into a rotation role with Minnesota. Last season, Nowell showed real signs of what he might be. He averaged 8.5 points in 15.7 minutes per game off the Timberwolves bench. In a very crowded guard rotation, Nowell’s shooting stood out. He knocked down 47.5% of his shots overall, while hitting 39.4% of his 160 three-pointers.

In a very small sample of five games this season, Nowell has become Minnesota’s primary bench scorer. It’s early, but it’s safe to say Nowell has arrived as a bench scoring weapon. But there’s more there too.

Nowell is flashing some playmaking skills in an offense where the majority of touches are dominated by Towns, Edwards and holdover veteran point guard D’Angelo Russell. Nowell is also getting to the boards more. Both the playmaking and rebounding match his NCAA and G League profile as a better all-around player than he’s shown in his NBA career.

All that said, it’s clear that Nowell is someone the Timberwolves should be considering extending. But should Nowell take the Dinwiddie Extension?

Let’s start with the fact the Nowell is wrapping up a four-year, slightly above minimum contract that he signed with Minnesota in 2019. All told, Nowell will have made $6.6 million over his first four years in the NBA.

Next, we move onto age. Nowell will only turn 24 years old this summer, despite the fact that he’ll have four NBA years on his ledger at that point. Whoever signs Nowell will be getting him during some key years of his career. He’s young enough that continued improvement can still be projected, and by the end of his next deal, Nowell will be headed into his prime years.

Minnesota would do well to get Nowell to sign the Dinwiddie Extension. At worst, he’ll be one of the best bench guards in the league over the next four-to-five seasons. But there’s potential that Nowell could, and probably should, be starting alongside Edwards in the Wolves backcourt as soon as next season. He’s not really a point guard, but Minnesota runs so much offense through Towns and Edwards, that shooting and defense are more important at that spot than traditional playmaking.

As for Nowell, he might want to wait. On one hand, Nowell would double his career earnings in Year 1 of a Dinwiddie Extension. That’s hard to pass up. But Nowell and his reps would do well to survey the landscape this summer.

At least nine NBA teams project to have between $20 million and $66 million in cap space this summer. As more extensions are signed, the free agent class will only weaken. And shooting and scoring, with good size, are always something teams are willing to pay for.

It’s not unreasonable to project that there will be more cap space available this summer than good players to spend it on. Nowell will be an unrestricted free agent. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that a team could offer him somewhere between $15 million and $20 million in first-year salary.

A comparison here is Jalen Brunson. Brunson was in a very similar spot to Nowell in terms of career earnings. He was also in the midst of a breakout season when he was eligible for a Dinwiddie Extension. And, like Nowell, Brunson was a pending unrestricted free agent heading into last summer. He bet on himself and got over $100 million from the New York Knicks in free agency.

It’s certainly a tricky spot for a player coming off a minimum deal. The Dinwiddie Extension would offer Nowell immediate life-changing money, but there is the possibility that even more could be waiting for him this summer.

Naz Reid

As for his running mate Naz Reid, the contract situation is almost the same. Reid signed a four-year, minimum contract in the summer of 2019. He’s making the same $1.9 million as Nowell is in the final year of that deal this season. Like Nowell, Reid will also turn 24 years old this summer.

From there, the circumstances differ greatly.

First, the Minnesota Timberwolves already have two All-Star level centers on the roster in Towns and Gobert, even if Towns is spending more time than ever at the four this season. How much can Minnesota really invest in a third center?

Second, the free agent market is flush with solid options for backup centers. Teams will continue, as they have for years, pluck players from free agency to give them a serviceable 15 minutes per game for a minimum deal or slightly above.

Lastly, Reid’s play has been more inconsistent than the consistent upward climb of Nowell’s. Reid broke out during his sophomore season, when he averaged 11.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 19.2 minutes per game off the Wolves bench.

Last year, Reid had a rotation role from opening night and he sort of fizzled. Mostly, the 6-foot-10 big man’s shooting fell off. He didn’t finish as well in and around the paint, and his three-point shooting also dipped. And lineups featuring both Reid and Towns were messy and didn’t really work in limited regular season minutes, before disappearing in the playoffs.

Unlike Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid isn’t worth the full Dinwiddie Extension. But that doesn’t mean Reid has no value at all. He’s an established solid backup center. For a playoff team that is built around their bigs, Minnesota needs a real player in that spot, even if for only 15 minutes per night.

Like Nowell, Reid has made comparatively little money in his NBA career. That leaves a deal less than the full Dinwiddie Extension as a still enticing possibility.

If we look around the NBA this past summer, we see backup centers signing for anything from the minimum up to $12.5 million per season. It feels like the sweet spot for Reid is somewhere in the middle of that range.

If Minnesota could get Reid on something like three-year, $22 million deal, that seems workable for both player and team. A sensible deal structure could look something like this:

• 2023-24: $8,000,000
• 2024-25: $7,360,000
• 2025-26: $6,720,000

That’s a frontloaded contract that descends by 8% each season. That gives Reid more money right away, while also helping the Wolves with what will likely be an extremely expensive roster down the line. In addition, the deal is short enough that Reid can hit the market for a bigger third contract before he turns 30, should be prove worthy.

This deal would also pay Reid slightly more than the three-year, $18.5 million extension that Dean Wade recently signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers. That feels fair, as Reid is nearly three years younger than Wade, and he’s established more of a consistent role in the NBA.

Final Thoughts

The Minnesota Timberwolves have all the way until the end of the league year to sign Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid to extensions. The Wolves should be aggressive in trying to get both players signed. The roster is only going to get more expensive, and that will limit Minnesota in adding outside talent. With Towns and Gobert signed long-term, and Edwards likely to join them soon, this isn’t the time to lose the complementary players that can keep the Timberwolves in playoff contention for years to come.

Monday, October 17 is a key day on the NBA calendar. Not only must teams get into roster compliance (up to 15 players on standard contracts, two players on Two-Way contracts), but it’s also the final day for two sets of players to sign contracts extensions.

We covered the players from the 2019 NBA Draft class who are eligible to sign their first extensions here. Those players have until 6:00 PM ET on Monday, October 17 to ink an extension. If no deal is reached, those players will be eligible for restricted free agency next summer.

The other group of players facing a deadline on Monday are extension-eligible veterans with two or more years left on their contracts.

Extension-eligible vets on an expiring deal can sign their extensions all the way up to June 30 (the final day of the league year). This is true, even though free agent negotiations now open at 6:00 PM ET on June 30. This caused a somewhat confusing situation where players like Gary Harris (Orlando Magic), Taurean Prince (Minnesota Timberwolves) and Thaddeus Young (Toronto Raptors) all signed extensions while news of free agents agreeing to deals was being reported.

We’ll handle that group of expiring players down the line. None of them are pressed to sign an extension in the next few days. For now, we’re going to go team-by-team through the players facing a deadline of Monday to get a deal done. Otherwise, those players will have to wait until the offseason to sign a new contract. And in some cases, they may push things further down the line until they are free agents.

Atlanta Hawks

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Bogdanovic is in a bit of a weird spot. He could extend his ability to…well…extend until June 30. In order to do so, he’d have to decline his player option for 2023-24. Then, he could sign an extension as an expiring player. Bogdanovic could also sign an extension right now. The challenge, he’s coming off at least a semi-serious knee injury. Something like a three-year, $45 million extension would be good for him and the Hawks. That lowers his number a bit in the future, when Atlanta has major tax concerns, but allows Bogdanovic to lock in some long-term money.

Prediction: No extension. Hawks and Bogdanovic let things play out for now. They’ll reconnect next summer on what’s best for both sides.

Dejounte Murray

This one is pretty simple. Murray isn’t signing an extension. Right now, he’s limited to signing for just one year because he was so recently traded. Even if Murray hadn’t been so recently traded he could only lock in for a three-year, $68.9 million extension (120% of his current salary with 8% raises), That’s not nearly enough for an All-Star level point guard.

Prediction: No extension. Murray isn’t signing another undervalue extension. He did that once. He’ll play out his current deal and be a free agent in 2024. That means no extension next summer either.

Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown

We covered Brown in depth here.

Prediction: No extension. Brown makes more than Dejounte Murray does, but the reasons are the same. As outlined in the piece linked above, Brown could also make All-NBA this season and qualify for a “super max extension” next summer.

Brooklyn Nets

Joe Harris

Harris is in an interesting spot. He’s not underpaid like Dejounte Murray or Jaylen Brown. But like Bogdan Bogdanovic, he’s coming off an injury. The Nets roster is also in a bit of flux. They have several players who extension-eligible through the end of the league year or they’ll hit free agency in the summer. Again, something like three-years, $45 million (with the final season guaranteed for $10 million-ish) would make sense for both Harris and the Nets. But Brooklyn may prefer to wait things out.

Prediction: No extension. There’s too much happening with the Nets roster right now for them to lock in long-term money for a role player, albeit a very good one.

Ben Simmons

This one is also very easy. Simmons has to make it through this season before the Nets will even considering extending him.

Prediction: No extension. For now, the focus just needs to be on Simmons actually playing basketball again. That’s all that matters for this season.

Charlotte Hornets

Gordon Hayward

The Hornets have to regret giving Hayward the $120 million they already gave him. It hasn’t worked out as hoped, for either party.

Prediction: No extension. Charlotte can’t commit even more money to player who hasn’t shown he can stay healthy.

Chicago Bulls

No applicable players

Cleveland Cavaliers

No applicable players

Dallas Mavericks

No applicable players

Denver Nuggets

Jamal Murray

The Nuggets have been proactive about signing their players to extensions when they can. Murray will probably be no different…just not yet. Coming off a torn ACL with three seasons left under contract, there is no rush to get to that next deal for Denver.

Prediction: No extension. If Murray is back to his normal self, he may get extended next summer. It’s just too early right now for the Nuggets to consider adding a couple of years to his deal.

Detroit Pistons

No applicable players

Golden State Warriors

Draymond Green

This one might have changed in a major way over the last week. There’s no way to truly know if Green would have extended if he hadn’t punched Jordan Poole, but it seems completely unlikely to happen now. Like Bogdan Bogdanovic, if things smooth out, Green could decline his player option for next summer and then extend. His first-year salary would have to start at the $27.6 million he declined in his player option, if he went this route.

Prediction: No extension. This one seems fairly obvious. Everyone needs to let things settle down before a new deal for Green can be broache.

Klay Thompson

It’s unlikely Thompson will get extended. He’s only played in 32 games over the last three seasons. Even though he was a huge part of the Warriors winning the 2022 NBA Finals, Thompson still has nearly $84 million left on his deal. That’s enough for now.

Prediction: No extension. If Thompson plays well this year, and stays healthy, he might get extended next summer. By then, the Warriors will also have clarity on Draymond Green, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, and an ever-increasing tax bill.

Houston Rockets

Eric Gordon

Gordon isn’t getting extended. With his 2023-24 likely to end up fully non-guaranteed, it’s more likely Gordon is traded than extended.

Prediction: No extension. The Rockets are fully in the midst of a youth movement. Gordon might be there for few months this year to shepherd along the kids, but he’ll likely be traded by the deadline. At that point, his new team will have to wait until the summer to figure out Gordon’s next deal.

K.J. Martin

Martin made a trade request from the Rockets crowded frontcourt. That hasn’t happened, but it’s unlikely he or Houston are in a rush to extend either.

Prediction: No extension. Because Martin has a team option for 2022-23, the Rockets (or another team if he’s traded) could decline that team option and then sign him to an extension before June 30. That might happen, but an extension with Houston is likely off the table.

Indiana Pacers

Buddy Hield

This one is tricky. The Pacers are rebuilding around kids, but Hield is a valuable player. It seems more likely that Indiana will trade Hield than extend him.

Prediction: No extension. Indiana has a surplus of interesting players at the two-guard position. That makes Hield expendable. That means no extension, but trade rumors will drag on until Hield is moved.

LA Clippers

Marcus Morris

At his age, it’s unlikely the Clippers will want to tack more money on than the $33.5 million they owe him through next season. LA has also stockpiled depth over the past few years at the forward position.

Prediction: No extension. The Clippers at some point need to move towards playing some of their younger guys a bit more. It covers them for the eventuality of players aging out. Morris is a key rotation guy, but probably only for two more years. (He’s also a sneaky trade candidate, but that’s for another time.)

Los Angeles Lakers

No applicable players

Memphis Grizzlies

Xavier Tillman Sr.

Tillman is in the same spot as K.J. Martin, minus the trade request. Everything else is basically the same.

Prediction: No extension. The Grizzlies have a frontcourt loaded with players. They also have to figure out a potential extension for Brandon Clarke. Even as aggressive as Memphis has been with retaining their own players, it doesn’t seem like a new deal is coming for Tillman until maybe next summer.

Miami Heat

No applicable players

Milwaukee Bucks

Khris Middleton

Middleton is a really interesting early extension candidate. He’s already locked in for more money through 2023-24 (if he picks up his player option) than he’d probably get per season on a new deal. While still a very productive player, Middleton is now 31 years old. And he’s had some serious injuries in recent years. But Middleton remains a key member of the Bucks. If he could add three seasons at around $30-35 million per year on average annual value, that would be a win for him and the Bucks.

Prediction: No extension. But this is one to watch. It would make a lot of sense for Milwaukee and Middleton to get something done now. It would also clarify the team’s future books and might make some other roster decisions easier. But both sides may prefer to play this out to free agency and to make sure Middleton is healthy.

Minnesota Timberwolves

No applicable players

New Orleans Pelicans

No applicable players

New York Knicks

No applicable players

Oklahoma City Thunder

No applicable players

Orlando Magic

Markelle Fultz

Fultz signed what looked like a really team-friendly deal for Orlando a couple of years ago. That contract is even very lightly guaranteed for next season. Unfortunately, Fultz hasn’t been able to stay healthy since re-signing. He needs to have a big “prove it” season this year.

Prediction: No extension. The injury history is simply too vast for the Magic to lock into any further money for Fultz. If he gets, and stays, healthy and has a good year, Orlando can consider an extension again next summer.

Philadelphia 76ers

Tobias Harris

Harris is going to look a lot better as the Sixers third or fourth option on offense this season, than the miscast second option he’s been the last couple of years. But that doesn’t mean Philly is ready to hand him more money.

Prediction: No extension. Harris is owed $76.9 million through 2023-24. The 76ers aren’t going to add on to that when they need to re-sign James Harden next summer, extend Tyrese Maxey and continue to work on building depth.

De’Anthony Melton

Melton just got to Philadelphia and he should be a perfect third-guard with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. If he was willing to extend for $10 million or less per season, something could get done before the deadline.

Prediction: No extension. Melton isn’t likely to extend for what will be less that MLE money right now. Because of that, this one might play out a year. Or even two, as his deal doesn’t expire until 2024.

Phoenix Suns

No applicable players

Portland Trail Blazers

No applicable players

Sacramento Kings

Domantas Sabonis

We can put Sabonis in the Jaylen Brown/Dejounte Murray category. He’s underpaid for what he is as an All-Star. Because of the limits of the veteran extension rules, it makes no sense for Sabonis to extend now. He’d get a maximum of three-years, $75.4 million. That’s not enough for an established All-Star.

Prediction: No extension. Because Sabonis was traded to the Kings, he can’t sign a super max deal either, even if he made All-NBA. That’s only available to players with their original team, or acquired while still on their rookie scale contract. It’s not likely he’ll extend next summer either. Like Murray, Sabonis will wait until 2024 free agency to cash in.

San Antonio Spurs

No applicable players

Toronto Raptors

Pascal Siakam

We covered all the options for Siakam in depth here.

Prediction: No extension. Siakam will bet on himself, try for another All-NBA season and then he’d be eligible for a super max deal.

Fred VanVleet

VanVleet is a bit in the Jaylen Brown/Dejounte Murray/Domantas Sabonis camp. He’s limited to extending for three-years, $88.7 million right now. He does have a player option for 2023-24 that he could decline, but the first-year salary would have to start at $22.8 million he’d be declining. That makes it even less likely VanVleet would extend.

Prediction: No extension. VanVleet has done just fine betting on himself to this point. He’ll continue to do so for at least one more year. If he turns in another big season, VanVleet will opt out and cash in as a free agent this summer.

Utah Jazz

Malik Beasley

Beasley is in that team option boat like K.J. Martin and Xavier Tillman Sr., but on a much larger deal. However, Utah isn’t extending Beasley. He’s not going to be long-term part of the roster Utah is working towards as they rebuild.

Prediction: No extension. Beasley is far more likely to be traded than extended. He’s also far more valuable as a pseudo-expiring contract than he would be already locked into an extension. It’ll be a surprised if Beasley is still in Utah after the trade deadline.

Jordan Clarkson

Clarkson is sort of in the same boat as Beasley. Does he really have a long-term future in Utah? The difference is Clarkson has some history with the Jazz and he’s a fan favorite. That could see him get an extension.

Prediction: No extension. It just doesn’t make much sense for the Jazz, who are rebuilding, to extend a bench scorer. That’s a luxury on a rebuilding team, sort of like having a good closer on a bad baseball team. It’s more likely Clarkson is traded than extended.

Washington Wizards

Vernon Carey Jr.

Carey is in the team option boat like K.J. Martin and Xavier Tillman Sr. The difference is Carey hasn’t shown nearly as much promise as either Martin or Tillman have.

Prediction: No extension. Carey is more likely to be waived than he is to be extended. He’s not a part of the future in Washington.

Kyle Kuzma

Kuzma signed a very team-friendly extension of three-years, $39 million with the Los Angeles Lakers a couple of years ago. He’d be extremely limited in what he could extend for, which makes it very unlikely.

Prediction: No extension. Kuzma stands to make in excess of $20 million per season as a free agent. He won’t extend. Instead, Kuzma will opt out and be a free agent in the summer of 2023. He’ll get paid by Washington or someone else in July.

Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis is in that player option situation like a few others. What would make the most sense for the oft-injured big man is to opt out of next season, and to sign a four-year extension for something around $100 million. Or he could add three years and bring his total money owed up to around $100 million. That’s potentially less in the immediate years than he stands to make by opting in, but it would give him long-term money that he may not get as a free agent.

Prediction: No extension. Porzingis doesn’t lack in confidence. He’s probably thinking far bigger than the proposals above. If he can turn in a healthy and productive season, Porzingis might be one of the better free agents available next summer. That could see him blow way past the $100 million mark in new money.