January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

We’ve already seen some movement around this deadline. The Boston Celtics traded Noah Vonleh to the San Antonio Spurs, who subsequently waived Vonleh. The Dallas Mavericks waived veteran guard Kemba Walker.

There are 27 players still in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

Atlanta Hawks

Vit Krejci - $1,563,518

This is a true 50-50 decision. The Hawks are close to the luxury tax line, but won’t save much by waiving Krejci. And they’re already sitting on one open roster spot. The guess here is that Krejci sticks.

Tyrese Martin - $1,017,781

Atlanta made a significant investment in Martin as a 2022 second-round pick. He’s not getting waived.

Boston Celtics

Justin Jackson - $1,836,090

When Boston traded away Noah Vonleh in a salary-clearing move, it boosted Jackson’s chances of sticking around. The Celtics aren’t exactly swimming in wing depth either. Jackson probably sticks, unless Boston really wants to play in the buyout market.

Luke Kornet - $2,133,278

Kornet has been a regular rotation player. The Celtics figure to play it safe with Rob Williams and Al Horford the rest of the regular season. Kornet isn’t going anywhere.

Brooklyn Nets

Markieff Morris - $1,836,000

The Nets just guaranteed Morris $1 million last month. He’s not going anywhere.

Edmond Sumner - $1,968,175

Sumner’s return to the court has been a fun story. He’s also played a rotation role at times. He’ll stick through the guarantee deadline.

Yuta Watanabe - $1,836,090

Watanabe has been one of the best bargains in the league, after earning a roster spot in training camp. He’ll be in Brooklyn for the rest of the season.

Charlotte Hornets

Dennis Smith Jr. - $1,836,090

When healthy, Smith has been a very solid backup point guard for Charlotte. He’s sticking around.

Chicago Bulls

No guarantee decisions

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lamar Stevens - $1,782,621

Stevens has been a rotation guy and sometimes starter for the Cavs. He’ll be staying in Cleveland.

Dallas Mavericks

No remaining guarantee decisions after waiving Kemba Walker

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

No guarantee decisions

Golden State Warriors

No guarantee decisions

Houston Rockets

No guarantee decisions

Indiana Pacers

Oshae Brissett - $1,846,738

Brissett is a regular rotation guy in Indiana and the only true four in their rotation. He’s not going anywhere.

James Johnson - $1,836,090

The Pacers are currently around $15 million under the salary floor. They’ll guarantee Johnson and if they need a roster spot, they’ll just eat his salary.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers will reportedly guarantee both Wenyen Gabriel ($1,878,720) and Austin Reaves ($1,5563,518). This makes sense as both are rotation guys. Reaves becomes a very interesting restricted free agent to monitor this coming offseason.

Memphis Grizzlies

Danny Green - $10,000,000

Green isn’t going to get waived. The real question is if Green will be part of a trade package, of if he can return from his torn ACL to give Memphis some wing depth.

Miami Heat

Haywood Highsmith - $1,752,638

Highsmith will stick around in Miami. He’s played regular minutes in Miami’s miniature and banged-up frontcourt.

Milwaukee Bucks

No guarantee decisions

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nathan Knight - $1,839,090

The Wolves like Knight as a depth player in their frontcourt. He’ll stick around for the rest of the season.

Jaylen Nowell - $1,930,681

This is a no-brainer. Nowell is Minnesota’s best reserve guard. He’s not getting waived. Nowell is also an interesting extension candidate for the Wolves.

Austin Rivers - $1,836,090

Rivers is a rotation regular for Chris Finch. He’ll continue to be one after the guarantee deadline passes on January 7.

New Orleans Pelicans

Jose Alvarado - $1,563,518

Arguably the biggest no-brainer on the list. Alvarado is on a steal of a deal for the Pels and isn’t going anywhere.

New York Knicks

Ryan Arcidiacono - $1,836,090

Arcidiacono is a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, so he’ll stick around. He’s also occasionally played when New York has dealt with backcourt injuries.

Svi Mykhailiuk - $1,836,090

Mykhailiuk won a roster spot during the preseason, but that hasn’t translated to anything further. Even when the Knicks have been down several wings, Mykhailiuk hasn’t played. This is a tough call, but the guess is the Knicks let him go.

Oklahoma City Thunder

No guarantee decisions

Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000

This is a quirky one. By not meeting games-played minimums, Isaac’s contract converted to partial and non-guaranteed years over its final three seasons. He’s still not back yet, but the Magic aren’t ready to move on either. He’ll make it through the rest of this year. Depending on how Isaac looks when he does play sets up an interesting decision for Orlando this summer.

Philadelphia 76ers

No guarantee decisions

Phoenix Suns

Jock Landale - $1,563,518

Landale seemed like he would be waived long ago, but he’s become Phoenix’s best backup big behind Deandre Ayton. He’ll stick with the Suns for the rest of the season.

Portland Trail Blazers

No guarantee decisions

Sacramento Kings

Matthew Dellavedova - $1,836,090

This one is tough. Mike Brown loves Dellavedova being the veteran guard with a still-young group. But the Kings might need a roster spot for flexibility during trade and buyout season. The guess is Dellavedova sticks, but could be thrown into a trade package, or waived if Sacramento makes an unbalanced trade.

Chima Moneke - $1,017,781

Moneke hasn’t done much for the Kings. He’s shuttled back and forth to the G League a lot. But Sacramento made a decent-sized salary commitment to him. He probably sticks around.

KZ Okpala - $1,902,133

Okpala is in a bit of a similar spot as Moneke, as far as salary-commitment goes. But Okpala sees minutes on a fairly regular basis too. He’ll stick in Sacramento.

San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Johnson - $1,245,164

Johnson will stay in San Antonio. The Spurs are $14.7 million under the salary floor and already have an open roster spot. With Devin Vassell out for a while after knee surgery, Johnson isn’t going to be waived.

Toronto Raptors

No guarantee decisions after waiving Justin Champagnie last month

Utah Jazz

No guarantee decisions

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

While most of the eyes around the NBA are on the February 9 trade deadline, there are a few dates that take precedence first. The first is Thursday, January 5, which is when teams can sign 10 Day contracts. A 10 Day contract is almost exactly what it sounds like. It’s a contract for the greater of 10 days or three games. It’s a temporary deal designed to give a team a bit of help for a short period.

There are a couple of rules to consider with 10 Day contracts. First, a team must have an open roster spot to sign the player. Unlike last season, when teams were regularly given additional hardship spots due to COVID-related absences, that hasn’t happened this year. Fingers crossed we don’t get there either!

The second rule with a 10 Day contract to be aware of is that teams are limited to signing the same player to only two 10 Day deals. After the second 10 Day is complete, if the team wants to keep that player, they must sign them for the remainder of the season.

Going back to roster spots, here are the teams who can currently sign a player to a 10 Day contract:

• Atlanta Hawks
• Charlotte Hornets
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Golden State Warriors
• LA Clippers
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Miami Heat
• Oklahoma City Thunder*
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Phoenix Suns
• Portland Trail Blazers
• Toronto Raptors

*Oklahoma City is eligible to apply for a hardship exception to add a roster spot, as they currently have four players dealing with long-term injuries.

Of the teams with an opening, Miami and Portland are close enough to avoiding the luxury tax, that they could forgo signing anyone for a while. The Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Sixers and Suns are all tax teams and may want to keep their bills down. Over the years, the advent of Two-Way deals have allowed teams to get the additional help they need while not adding to their salary or tax concerns via a 10 Day signing.

One last thing: NBA contract become fully guaranteed if players aren’t waived by Saturday, January 7. A handful of teams will open up roster spots by waiving players. With buyout season about two months away, those teams could fill those spots with 10 Day players.

With 10 Day season now open, here are some players to keep an eye on to sign a 10 Day deal.

(All G League stats courtesy of RealGM)

The NBA Veterans

It used to be that an NBA veteran of more than a few years would never sign a 10 Day. Those players wanted full contracts or nothing. In recent years, veterans looking to get back into the league have been far more willing to go the 10 Day route. It’s kind of a prove-it process for them to show they can still play.

Carmelo Anthony

It’s a bit odd to see a 19-year veteran leading off this list, but Anthony belongs here. When we last saw him play, Anthony averaged 13.3 points in 26 minutes per game off the Los Angeles Lakers bench. He could use a 10 Day or two to boost his odds of catching on for the rest of the season somewhere.

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins showed enough that he could have a backup center spot. He was effective with both the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks. The question with Cousins: Will he except a role where he doesn’t play much?

Isaiah Thomas

Last season, Thomas used a series of 10 Days to show he could still play before signing with the Charlotte Hornets for the rest of the season. Thomas stays in good shape and could help a team looking for scoring and point guard depth off the bench.

Hassan Whiteside

It’s a little shocking Whiteside hasn’t signed somewhere yet. He was very effective on both offense and defense with the Utah Jazz last season. He may need to take a prove-it deal to show he can do that for a team this season.

The G League Callups

Most 10 Day deals come as a result of callups from the G League. It’s important to note that unless a player is signed to a standard or Two-Way contract with an NBA team, they are a free agent in NBA terms. That means that even if a player is playing for an NBA team’s G League affiliate, they can be signed by any NBA team.

James Akinjo – Westchester Knicks

The point guard showed a bit at Summer League in limited minutes. Since then, Akinjo has popped in the G League. 9.2 assists per game and some good three-point shooting could earn Akinjo a callup when a team needs point guard depth.

Chris Chiozza – Long Island Nets

Chiozza is a veteran of the G League-to-NBA pipeline. He’s been there done that. The reason why is teams know he’ll produce if they add him. Chiozza plays decent defense, rebounds well for his size (5-foot-11) and is a high-end playmaker. His shooting holds him back, but he’s a callup candidate for playmaking depth.

Gary Clark – Mexico City Capitanes

Clark is another guy who has done the G League-to-NBA path a few times. He’s a solid defender that can hold his own against most wings and forwards. Clark is also showing consistent shooting. He’s worthy of another NBA shot.

Sharife Cooper – Cleveland Charge:

Cooper is the equivalent of a 4A guy in Major League Baseball. Too good for the minors, but not quite good enough to stick in the majors. Cooper is using his speed to score a non-NBA deal, league-leading 25.2 points per game in the G League. He’s also upped his playmaking and long-range shooting. He’s another point guard callup candidate.

Tyler Dorsey – Free Agent

Dorsey was with the Dallas Mavericks on a Two-Way deal until earlier this month. He’s got overseas offers, but Dorsey is apparently waiting things out with 10 Day season open in the NBA. He’s an overpowering scorer in the G League. If Dorsey can ever translate his G League and overseas shooting to the NBA, he’ll be a standard contract guy.

Kris Dunn – Capital City Go-Go

Credit to Dunn for taking a route a lot of “failed” lottery picks won’t take. Often, those players head overseas or disappear entirely. Dunn has been one of the best all-around players in the G League this season. He’s scoring, passing and defending at a high level. One scout told Spotrac that “Dunn is the best perimeter defender not playing in the NBA.” He’ll get a callup at some point.

Tyler Hall – Texas Legends

Hall was described to Spotrac as “the best shooter in the G League”. At 47.3% on 9.1 three-pointer attempts per game, that’s probably accurate. Hall doesn’t do a whole lot beyond shooting, but a one-skill player is still a callup candidate. Witness Matt Ryan a year ago. He’s turned his shooting into multiple NBA contracts. Hall could be next.

Shaq Harrison – South Bay Lakers

Harrison doesn’t do a lot of scoring, but he’s been great in all other facets of the game. His defense keeps getting him NBA opportunities, and it probably will again. If he could shoot (he’s been an inconsistent throughout his career), Harrison would already be on an NBA roster.

Jay Huff – South Bay Lakers

One scout who saw Huff at the G League Showcase told Spotrac: “He’s the best floor-spacing, rim-protecting prospect around that isn’t (Victor Wembanyama).” That’s high praise, but Huff is shooting 36.2% from deep this season, while blocking 3.2 shots a night. That’s a combo NBA teams prize. Huff is probably better than a couple of the deeper bench guys his own parent club the Los Angeles Lakers roll out on a nightly basis. Huff is also only 24 years old and screams classic late-bloomer big man.

Alize Johnson – Austin Spurs

Johnson is a four-year NBA vet and he had a stint with San Antonio already this season. He’s the best rebounder on this list. If the three-point shooting and improved finishing inside are real, Johnson could be a good bet to earn a full NBA deal.

Jontay Porter – Wisconsin Herd

It’s been a journey for Porter. He’s been on and off the Memphis Grizzlies roster as he recovered from multiple torn ACLs. He’s finally playing consistent minutes in the G League and producing. Like his brother Michael Jr. with the Nuggets, Porter has stretched out his range. He’s shooting 40% on 6.3 three-point attempts per game. And that’s while providing some rim protection and rebounding. At 23 years old, Porter is someone who should snag a real NBA opportunity.

Luka Samanic – Maine Celtics

A scout at the G League showcase told Spotrac “Samanic is finally figuring things out. He’s huge (6-foot-10, but players bigger) and is putting his skill together with his size.” Samanic has always flashed, but he’s now playing consistently good minutes. He’s still a questionable defender, but a team looking for some scoring in their frontcourt should call up the 22-year-old big man.

Jay Scrubb – Lakeland Magic

Unlike what his surname might imply, Scrubb can play. He’s one of the best scorers in the G League, getting his points with a nice mix of inside and outside play. He’s also rebounding more than before and starting to produce defensively sometimes too. At 22 years old and 6-foot-5, Scrubb should get a shot from a team looking for wing scoring.

Zavier Simpson – Lakeland Magic

Simpson had a cup of coffee last season with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but showed a lot in limited minutes. He’s built on that with an outstanding all-around G League season. Always an aggressive scorer, Simpson is showing he can run an offense and make plays for others too. He’s also been competitive on defense, despite his slight build. Teams looking for a point guard could do a lot worse than Simpson.

Gabe York – Fort Wayne Mad Ants

York has been on the NBA radar for years. He’s been good both in the G League and overseas. York is solid both on- and off-ball. He’s another 4A guy, and a bit older than others on this list. But if a team needs an immediate injection of energy, scoring and some defense, York should be their callup.

Christian Wood is putting together his best season in the NBA this year with the Dallas Mavericks. Sure, he scored more points and grabbed more rebounds in seasons with the Houston Rockets, but the combination of efficiency and production, along with improved defense, from Wood makes this season is his best one yet.

Wood opened the year coming off the Mavs bench, as they prioritized defense and screen-setting (and maybe keeping a soon-to-be-extension-eligible player’s numbers down a bit) at the center spot to start the season. But over the last seven games, Wood has started at the five and Dallas has taken off. The Mavericks have won five straight, following two close losses, with Wood as a starter.

During those seven games, Wood has averaged 18.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, two assists and a steal per game. Luka Doncic is driving the Mavs success, but Wood is more than just a passenger along for the ride.

This career-best production for Wood comes at a critical time. He’s in the final season of the three-year, $41 million deal he signed a part of a sign-and-trade to the Rockets from the Detroit Pistons. Wood recently became fully extension-eligible with Dallas. He could also wait to cash in as an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Let’s take a look at what Christian Wood’s next contract could look like.

The Veteran Extension

Because enough time has now passed since the trade that sent Wood from Houston to Dallas, he’s eligible to sign a full veteran extension with the Mavericks. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $17,180,951
• 2024-25: $18,555,427
• 2025-26: $19,929,903
• 2026-27: $21,304,379
• Total: four years, $76,970,660

That’s a 120% bump off of Wood’s current $14.3 million contract for this season in first-year salary. He can then get 8% raises off that new salary for the subsequent years.

$77 million over four years is an average annual value (AAV) of $19.25 million. For this season, that figure would rank at 69th in the NBA, nestled between Lonzo Ball ($19.5 million) and Caris LeVert ($18.8 million). Among centers, $19.25 million would be 10th in the NBA this season, behind Jarrett Allen ($20 million) and Clint Capela ($18.7 million). Both overall and among centers, that probably about where Wood ranks.

It’s not bad money by any means. But could Wood do better in free agency after a big close to the season?

Re-signing with the Mavericks as a free agent

Dallas has full Bird rights for Christian Wood. That means they can offer him a max deal if they want. That contract would look like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the projected $134 million cap for 2023-24, with 8% raises tacked on.

Even the most ardent Christian Wood fan would probably agree that’s too rich. An average salary of $46.6 million would make Wood the highest paid center in the league and the third highest paid player in the entire NBA this season.

That’s not happening.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Let’s say Christian Wood and the Mavericks are ready to part ways this summer. There are nine teams that currently project to have cap space this offseason. A handful could be in play for Wood’s services. Here’s the max an opposing team could offer Wood this summer:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer Wood is four years and 5% raises.

If you compare this deal to what Wood can extend for right now, it’s nearly $100 million more in total salary. But, even at a lesser figure than his max with Dallas, $43.2 million AAV is still too rich for Wood.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

This isn’t a realistic option for Christian Wood, and it’s part of the reason he hasn’t extended with Dallas yet. In an extend-and-trade, a player can only add two seasons to their deal and they can only get a 5% bump in first-year salary over their current salary. Here’s what that would look like for Wood:

• 2023-24: $15,033,332
• 2024-25: $16,235,999

$31.2 million over two seasons simply isn’t enough for a player of Wood’s value.

It’s also not realistic to expect Wood to be traded and then to extend for the full amount he can extend for with Dallas. If Wood was traded, he’d have to wait six months to extend for more than he can be offered as part of an extend-and-trade. That would take us to the start of free agency. Thus, any team trading for Christian Wood now would do so under the idea they could re-sign him in free agency.

It’s also fair to ask: Why would Dallas trade Wood? The Mavericks wouldn’t just give away their talented big man. But if they can use his contract, plus another one or two, to get that second star they’ve been looking for alongside Luka Doncic, Dallas would do it. The Mavs tend to be aggressive, as witnessed a season ago when they traded Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards to break up his max contract into two smaller, easier-traded ones.

Summary

Christian Wood’s value is a bit tricky to peg. At worst, Wood is an offense-leaning center, but a very good one. But he’s shown this season that he can be more than that. On a team with something to play for, Wood is playing better on the defensive end of the floor than he ever has.

He’s also able to slide over and play the four, alongside the right center. That’s a valuable skill, because it increases Wood’s versatility and doesn’t pigeon hole him lineup-wise.

So, what’s a five, who can play some four, that can get you 20 points per game with solid rebounding, improving passing and defense worth? The answer is somewhere around the $19.25 AAV that the Mavericks can offer Wood in an extension.

This season, 10 centers are making more than $20 million. That number climbs to 12 if you include Kristaps Porzingis and Kevin Love, who both log a lot of minutes at the five.

So, somewhere between $19 and $20 million doesn’t seem unreasonable for Christian Wood, on its face. The challenge then becomes what the free agent market will come to bear for him.

As we said earlier, nine teams project to have enough cap space to offer Wood at least what Dallas can offer him via a veteran extension. Of those nine teams, we can eliminate a few, right off the bat. The Houston Rockets and Detroit Pistons have been there, done that. The Orlando Magic are already overstuffed with big men.

That leaves a group that includes Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz. Indiana and San Antonio have their own free agent centers (Myles Turner and Jakob Poeltl, respectively) to deal with. Charlotte seems like they are going to use some of their cap flexibility to re-sign Miles Bridges, and they may not end up having space at all.

That leaves the Lakers, who are probably thinking bigger than Christian Wood in free agency, the Thunder and Jazz. At this point, the Jazz are a mystery box. Who knows what their plans are? Wood makes a lot of sense for the Thunder, but only if they are ready to start pushing things forward in terms of contending for a playoff spot.

There’s also the matter of the center position being the deepest of all of the positions in free agency. As mentioned, Myles Turner and Jakob Poeltl could be free agents this summer. They’ll likely be joined by Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Vucevic and Brook Lopez, along with several lower-priced veteran options.

It’s at this point that we should mention the possibility of a sign-and-trade for Wood and Dallas. Wood can’t get any more money via a sign-and-trade than he could get by signing with a team outright, but as a non-max player, that’s not really an issue. If there is a team willing to give Wood $20 million or more AAV, they can do it. A sign-and-trade would also help the capped-out Mavs return something of value, as opposed to losing Wood for nothing.

Putting it all together, the $77 million extension over four years is probably fair value for Christian Wood. He might be able to get more than by pushing things to free agency, but it won’t be significantly more. For a player who has made around $45 million in total salary in the first seven years of his career, it could be hard to pass up $19+ million per season.

The real deal may fall somewhere outside the four-year, $77 million extension. It’s been suggested that Wood won’t sign a four-year extension. Maybe he does a shorter-term deal, but still for the max he can extend for with Dallas. Two years and $35.7 million, or a two-plus-one deal of nearly $56 million are both reasonable too.

No matter what happens. Christian Wood is going to get a nice new contract. If it’s an extension with the Mavericks, don’t expect that to come until after the trade deadline. Dallas will exhaust all of their trade options first, as extending Wood for big money would come with a six-month trade restriction.

If a new contract comes in free agency, Wood will probably get north of $20 million AAV, either through a sign-and-trade or an outright signing with a cap space team. And that’s a contract that should hold its value for whatever length it spans for the talented, versatile big man.

The NBA trade deadline is roughly a month-and-a-half away. In some ways, that’s a long way off. In other ways, it’s coming up very rapidly. Such is life with the NBA’s calendar.

Trade deadline activity has been altered in recent years by the flattening of the lottery odds and the addition of the Play-In Tournament. On one end, teams don’t have to be horrifically bad to have the best lottery odds. They just need to be fairly bad. On the other end, more teams have a shot at the postseason, and those hopes run deeper into the season.

But the altering has been in types of trade, as opposed to volume of trades. 2022 trade deadline week saw 16 total trades. Some were traditional ones between buyers looking to contend and sellers with their eyes on the future. Some were teams rebalancing their rosters, regardless of where they stood in the standings. Others were strictly about the cap and lowering or avoiding the luxury tax.

No matter what, we’ll have action leading up to the deadline. With that in mind, here are the top-15 players to keep an eye on leading up to the trade deadline on February 9.

Jae Crowder (PHX) 

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $10.18M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $10,183,800 

Crowder is going to be traded. The Suns won’t let him languish away from the team, only to lose him for nothing this summer, out of spite. He’s also on a very easily movable $10.2 million salary. Finally, there are a ton of contenders who can use a wing defender with playoff experience who has shot it OK for stretches of his career. Phoenix will get something for Crowder, eventually.

John Collins (ATL)

Contract Status: 4 years, $102M through 2025-26 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $23,500,000 

We’re in what feels like year three or four of Collins rumors. Yet, Atlanta re-signed him to a five-year deal, just over a year ago. The problem? That deal still has four years and $102 million left on it through 2025-26. Collins is a good player, but his time in Atlanta seems to have run its course. With the Hawks needing to rebalance their cap sheet some, it feels like Collins may actually be on the move this year.

Eric Gordon (HOU)

Contract Status: 2 years, $40.5M though 2023-24 (2023-24 non-guaranteed)

2022-23 Salary: $19,568,360

If John Collins is in year three or four of trade rumors, this is year umpteen for Gordon. He’s on a pseudo-expiring deal at a very tradable $19.5 million. If Bojan Bogdanovic really is off the market, Gordon is probably the best scoring/shooting wing available. Even if his overall shooting has dipped a bit, Gordon is still someone who can help a contender in a playoff series.

James Wiseman (GSW)

Contract Status: 2 years, $21.7M through 2023-24; Rookie Scale contract

2022-23 Salary: $9,603,360

Let’s engage in a bit of rampant speculation, shall we? The Warriors had this grand plan to extend a 10-year contention window into a two-decade long window. As the original core group aged out, the young core would be ready to step up. Only…the original core is still going strong and the young core, led by Wiseman hasn’t panned out. Wiseman needs patience and minutes to figure it out in the NBA, neither of which Golden State can give him. His $9.6 million salary would bring in a helpful, win-now veteran to shore up the bench, and that’s why Wiseman might be on the move.

Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose and Cam Reddish (NYK)

Fournier Contract Status: 3 years, $37.86M through 2024-25 (includes 2024-25 Club Option)

Fournier 2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000

Rose Contract Status: 2 years, $30.12M through 2023-24 (includes 2022-24 Club Option)

Rose 2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000

Reddish Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $5.95M through 2022-23; Rookie Scale contract

Reddish 2022-23 Salary: $5,954,454

We’re lumping these three together, because it’s a good bet that at least two of them are getting traded by the deadline. Any combination of the three, along with a pick or two, could get the Knicks a major rotation upgrade. Given all three vets are so far out of the rotation that they might as well be in New Jersey, New York is going to do something here.

Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel (DET)

Burks Contract Status: 2 years, $20.5M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 Club Option)

Burks 2022-23 Salary: $10,012,800

Noel Contract Status: 2 years, $18.92M through 2023-24 (includes 2022-24 Club Option)

Noel 2022-23 Salary: $9,240,000

Another combo! The Pistons are bad. The Pistons are going to continue to be bad for at least the rest of this season. That’s fine. It happens. It makes sense that they want to keep Bojan Bogdanovic, because he fits moving forward. But a bad team doesn’t need Burks, who isn’t a part of the future, taking up guard/wing minutes when they could go to younger players. Noel is buried behind young bigs. Newly-extended GM Tory Weaver will get what he can for the two vets, as the rebuild continues in the Motor City.

Danny Green (MEM)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $10M through 2022-23 (non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 1/10/23)

2022-23 Salary: $10,000,000

This one is interesting, most because there isn’t a whole lot the Grizzlies need. They could use one more wing that can defend guards, just in case Desmond Bane keeps having toe/foot issues. Enter Green and his expiring $10 million salary. Green’s deal could allow Memphis to get a nice rotation player without having to trade any of the prized kids on their roster. Of course, if healthy enough, Green could just be that wing that the Grizzlies need himself.

Terrence Ross (ORL)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $11.5M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $11,500,000

Hey! We’ve hit the obligatory “Terrence Ross is available” section of the list. Ross is literally the last vet standing in Orlando. Everyone else has come and gone, but Ross remains. He’s probably not coming back next season, so it would behoove the Magic to get something, even second rounder or two, for Ross and his $11.5 million expiring deal.

Matisse Thybulle (PHI)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $4.38M through 2022-23; Rookie Scale contract

2022-23 Salary: $4,379,527

For a contender to upgrade their rotation, they have to part with someone. Philadelphia seems like they are a guy or two short of reaching the upper echelon of teams. Thybulle wasn’t extended, which is always a red flag about a player’s future with their team. This could be one of those rebalancing the rotation deals where Thybulle is sent out to a team that needs some perimeter defense, while the Sixers return a big that they can plug in behind Joel Embiid.

Kyle Kuzma (WAS)

Contract Status: 2 years, $26M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $13,000,000

We’ve hit the “These guys are good, but their teams aren’t and the player is set for free agency” section of the list. You can read all about Kuzma’s contract situation here. He’s going to opt out and he’s going to get paid this summer. If Washington isn’t certain that’s going to happen with them, the Wizards should be looking to trade Kuzma and his very tradable $13 million deal.

Nikola Vucevic (CHI)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $22M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $22,000,000

The Bulls are a mess. They can’t seem to find the right lineup combinations, in addition to struggling to get Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to mesh together. It doesn’t seem like either of the stars is going anywhere, so that leaves Vucevic as the big trade piece. If a contender winds up needing a center, and Chicago has no plans to re-sign Vucevic, he could be the best five on the market.

Jakob Poeltl (SAS)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $9.40M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $9,398,148

This one comes down to what the Spurs want to do long-term. If they see Poeltl as a big part of the next good team in San Antonio, they can keep him and re-sign him this summer. Poeltl won't extend, so it all comes down to how much the Spurs will pay to keep him in free agency. If there’s worry that he’ll leave anyway, like Kuzma and Washington, San Antonio has to make a move first.

Duncan Robinson (MIA)

Contract Status: 4 years, $74.35M through 2025-26 (includes 2025-26 Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $16,902,000

Robinson has been out of the Heat’s regular rotation for quite some time now. That, combined with his $16.9 million make Robinson a nice trade chip for a Miami team that is short on nice trade chips. The challenge? Robinson is owed somewhere between $47 and $57 million (pending guarantees) for the three seasons after this one. That’s a lot for a one-skill guy that isn’t playing. But the Heat always seem to find a way to make a deal, and Robinson is probably part of finding that way.

Robert Covington (LAC)

Contract Status: 2 years, $24M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $12,307,692

The Clippers won’t let adding money take them out of the mix for a trade. They’ll just keep paying the tax bill. Covington rarely plays for the Clippers anymore, and he’s owed $24 million through next season. The $12.3 million he’s owed this year could be the salary-matching LA needs to upgrade the rotation.

Seth Curry (BKN)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $8.50M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $8,496,653

This is more of a hunch than anything else. The Nets will likely be active, but they’re somewhat limited in the trades they can make. Their best salary-matching is attached to players they need in their rotation. Joe Harris could be moved, but no one seems to want to take on the $19.9 million he’s owed for next season. That leaves Curry. He’s coming off the bench, and his role can be covered by a combination of Harris, Patty Mills and Cam Thomas. If the Nets make a move, it feels like Curry and his $8.5 million expiring contract will be the way they do it.

The NBA’s extension rules are broken. Not irreparably so, but they need to be fixed. Kyle Kuzma of the Washington Wizards is a perfect example.

Kuzma recently confirmed that he intends to opt out of his contract this coming offseason. That makes sense, as Kuzma is set to be paid just $13 million for the 2023-24 season. His play since being traded to the Wizards has far outpaced that of a midrange deal.

This season, Kuzma has averaged 21.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. He’s done so on respectable shooting, especially given he’s regularly Washington’s top scoring option. Overall, Kuzma has proven he’s scoring combo forward, and combo forwards who can score generally get paid.

In an ideal world, Kuzma and Washington would sign an extension. However, the NBA’s current extension rules would see Kuzma leave far too much money on the table.

Let’s dive in!

The Veteran Extension

Kuzma currently makes $13 million in the second season of the three-year, $39 million rookie scale extension he signed with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020. That deal is set to pay Kuzma $13 million flat per season, with the 2023-24 season being a player option.

Under the veteran extension rules, Kuzma would be able to decline his 2023-24 player option and add four years to his deal via extension. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $15,600,000
• 2024-25: $16,848,000
• 2025-26: $18,096,000
• 2026-27: $19,344,000
• Total: four years, $69,888,000

That’s the maximum allowable 120% off Kuzma’s current salary with 8% raises off the $15.6 million first-year salary.

For reference: A salary of $15.6 million would rank 93rd in the NBA, nestled between Jusuf Nurkic’s $15,625,000 and Malik Beasley’s $15,558,035.

That’s not enough for a player who is scoring more than 21 points per game, while adding solid rebounding and passing. Thus, Kuzma is planning to opt for free agency this coming summer.

The Designated Veteran Extension

Kuzma isn’t eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, but we’re only mentioning this here to say it’s not happening. For Kuzma to be eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, he’d have to make All-NBA this season, win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. None of those things are happening.

Re-signing with the Wizards as a free agent

Kuzma is going to opt out, which gives him control over his next team for the first time in his career. Because Kuzma signed only a three-year rookie scale extension, and he’s opting out after the second season, he’ll have six Years of Service. That keeps him eligible for the 25% of the salary cap maximum tier. A max deal for Kuzma with the Wizards would look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap max with 8% raises.

That feels far too rich for a player who has never been an All-Star and will be 28 years old when next season starts.

Signing with another team as a free agent

This summer, nine teams project to have cap space. Of those nine, seven are in range to be able to offer Kuzma the maximum they possibly can. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $35,175,000
• 2025-26: $36,850,000
• 2026-27: $38,525,000
• Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same first-year maximum salary as Kuzma could get from the Wizards at 25% of the cap. The difference here is the deal includes 5% raises and can only go out for four years.

An AAV of $36 million still feels like too much for Kuzma. To get him to leave Washington, another team will need to offer a big contract, but it probably doesn’t need to be quite that big.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

We’re going to take this option off the table, as it’s even more limiting than signing a straight extension would be. Kuzma could only add two seasons and a 5% bump over his currently salary.

To make it simple: Any team trading for Kuzma would be doing so with hopes that having his Bird Rights for a new contract in July will be enough.

One note: If Kuzma at all waffles on his commitment to re-signing with the Wizards this coming summer, Washington has to consider trading him. To get something for Kuzma vs losing him for nothing is a must.

Summary

Kyle Kuzma’s situation is an interesting one. The extension rules being so limiting take that off the table. Kuzma’s also not in a spot to land a max deal in free agency, barring something really unexpected. Finding that sweet spot in between is the key.

It’s not a lock Washington will re-sign Kuzma, as their team salary is starting to push towards the tax. The Wizards also have a new contract looming for Kristaps Porzingis, either this coming free agent period (if Porzingis opts out) or via extension or new deal in 2024 (if Porzingis opts in). Washington also gave Bradley Beal a five-year, $251 million deal that is starting to look a little shaky.

In free agency, it’s unclear if Kuzma will be a priority free agent for anyone. His scoring game could make sense for teams like the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers or Oklahoma City Thunder. The latter two might make slightly more sense, The Pacers and Thunder are somewhat limited on forward talent, whereas the Pistons and Rockets have some young forwards already in place.

The Los Angeles Lakers are probably thinking bigger with their cap space, while the Orlando Magic already have a overstuffed forward position. It’s unclear what the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz will be doing as this point. There’s a world where Kuzma could make sense for both of those teams too.

It’s also worth noting that the free agent crop is fairly weak this summer. Kuzma will be somewhere around the top-10 of free agents that can be reasonably expected to change teams come July.

Where does that leave him contract-wise? In a pretty good spot. Here are some players that are decent comps for Kuzma and their recent contracts:

• Davis Bertans: five years, $80 million
• Bojan Bogdanovic: two-year extension for $39 million
• Tobias Harris: four years, $64 million in 2015-16 (Harris’ current near-max deal isn’t a fair comp, as it’s considered one of the worst deals in the NBA, but his initial extension is a good comp)
• Lauri Markkanen: four years, $67.5 million in 2021-22
• Marcus Morris: four years, $64 million in 2020-21

Not all of those comps are perfect, but they’re close. On average, those players all got between $16 million and $17 million per season. That’s not all that far off what Kuzma could extend for with the Wizards. But the key differences are the weak free agent market and the changing cap environment.

In such a poor free agent class, Kuzma is poised to cash in. That will bump his value up some. In addition, in coming seasons, $17 million is going to be closer to 10% of the cap than it is the 15-20% it was for many of the above players.

Adding it all up, Kuzma should still land a four-year deal worth between $75 million and $80 million. Given he’ll be 28 years old when next season starts, Washington or a rival team would do well to structure Kuzma’s next deal as a descending contract.

Here’s what that could look like if Kuzma re-signed with the Wizards:

• 2023-24: $22,000,000
• 2024-25: $20,240,000
• 2025-26: $18,480,000
• 2026-27: $16,720,000
• Total: four years, $77,440,000

This version declines by 8% each season, which is the maximum allowable if Kuzma re-signs in Washington. A $16.7 million salary in his age-31 season seems fair for both Kuzma and the Wizards. It would also give Washington a little cap sheet relief, considering Beal is set to make over $57 million that season.

If Kuzma wanted similar overall money from another team, but still on a descending structure, it could look like this:

• 2023-24: $20,925,000
• 2024-25: $19,878,750
• 2025-26: $18,832,500
• 2026-27: $17,786,250
• Total: four years, $77,422,500

That’s roughly the same total money as Kuzma would get from Washington, but with 5% declines per season.

Either one of those setups gives Kuzma more money than the players we comped him with. That seems fair given the combination of Kuzma’s production, his age, the free agent market this summer and the continued rising of the salary cap. Of course, Kuzma could do a deal that follows the traditional structure with the lower salaries up front.

No matter the structure, as long as Washington, or any other team, keeps Kyle Kuzma’s next deal in the range of four years and $80 million, they’ll have done well.

Most NBA general managers will tell you that making trades are a complicated process. The fantasyification of sports, as well as the point-and-click nature of video games, sometimes has fans thinking that making a trade is easy.

The reality is NBA front offices talk trades every single day. Quite often a deal is bandied about months in advance of getting the tweet that it’s been agreed to. Most often, trade talks go nowhere.

The hardest part of making a trade is an obvious one: agreeing on the value heading both ways. But there are complicating factors even beyond that.

Many a time, the teams agree to the base parameters of a deal. Player X is going one way, while Player Y and draft picks are headed the other way. But sometimes that’s not enough to get a deal done. Both sides have to meet the salary-matching component in a trade, and that can get confusing and hard to understand.

Salary-matching in a trade makes signing a player by using cap space look like child’s play. If you have $20 million in available cap space and you want to sign a player, you can offer him up to $20 million. That’s pretty cut and dry.

For a trade to happen in the NBA, there are salary-matching rules that to be met. Let’s break those down.

Trading as a Taxpayer

10 teams are currently over the NBA’s tax line. Nine of them are pretty good bets to finish as taxpayers. Another eight teams are dancing around the tax line. So, over half of the NBA is around the tax as trade season opens.

That’s important because taxpayers have a different set of salary-matching rules than non-taxpayers do.

Taxpayers can take back 125% of the outgoing salary they send out plus $100,000. That means if a taxpayer sends out $20 million in salary, they can take back $25,100,000 in incoming salary.

The reason this is done is to limit how much money a taxpayer can take back in a trade to retain some semblance of competitive balance.

Trading as a Non-Taxpayer

A non-taxpayer has bands for how much salary they can return in a trade.

If a non-taxpayer sends out $1 to $6.5 million in a trade, they can bring back 175% of the outgoing salary plus $100,000.

If a non-taxpayer sends out between greater than $6.5 million in a trade and $19.6 million, they can bring back the outgoing salary plus $5 million.

If a non-taxpayer sends out greater than $19.6 million in a trade, they can bring back 125% of the outgoing salary plus $100,000.

This is done to bring some balance to what non-taxpayers can do in trade as opposed to taxpayers.

Important Note: The calculation as to whether a team is a taxpayer or non-taxpayer is always done post-trade. That means if a team is going from being under the tax to over the tax, how much money they can return via trade could possibly change.

Matching salary via other means

When a trade is made, each team is allowed to structure the trade in the best possible way for themselves. While we might get a deal reported as “Team 1 is trading Players X, Y and Z to Team 2 for Players A, B, C and D”, the actual structure of that deal might be far more complicated.

For example, Team 1 might have a Traded Player Exception (TPE) they are using to absorb Player D and only using salary-matching to trade for Players A, B and C. On the other side, Team 2 could be using the Minimum Exception to absorb Player X, while using salary-matching to bring on Players Y and Z. This type of structuring is often how TPEs are created.

Other Important Trade Rules

• Players who are making the Veteran Minimum can almost always be acquired via the Minimum Exception. That means no salary-matching needs to be used for them to be brought in. Note: something still needs to be sent to the trading team in the deal.

Inversely, if their salary is needed in a deal to make the salary-matching work, a team is allowed to include it as such.

• Players with a trade bonus can waive part or all of the trade bonus in order to meet the salary-matching rules.
• Draft picks always carry a value of $0 in trade. They are “extras” being added to a deal and have no impact on salary-matching.
• Players on a one-year contract with Bird or Early Bird rights after the contract expires (inclusive of an option year) have an implied no-trade clause. This is because those players lose those rights if traded under these circumstances. Two other players, Bradley Beal and Deandre Ayton, also have no-trade clauses. Beal’s is a full NTC, while Ayton’s is a temporary NTC. This year, the NTC list includes:
• Ryan Arcidiacono (New York Knicks)
• Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns - one-year NTC due to matched offer sheet)
• Bradley Beal (Washington Wizards - only full NTC)
• Bismack Biyombo (Phoenix Suns)
• Jevon Carter (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Kessler Edwards (Brooklyn Nets)
• Drew Eubanks (Portland Trail Blazers)
• James Harden (Philadelphia 76ers)
• Serge Ibaka (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Andre Iguodala (Golden State Warriors)
• Derrick Jones Jr. (Chicago Bulls)
• Nathan Knight (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Wesley Matthews (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Rodney McGruder (Detroit Pistons)
• Mike Muscala (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• Theo Pinson (Dallas Mavericks)
• Each side has to give up something in a deal. Even in a straight salary dump trade, something has to go back the other way. This can be something as benign as a minor amount of cash ($110,000 is the minimum), a top-55 protected second round pick or draft rights to a player who is unlikely to come over to the NBA. The key is that all parties have to send something out. Trading a player for “nothing” isn’t actually a thing.
• In a multiple-team trade, each team must satisfy what is called the “touch rule”. The touch rule says that in a multiple-team trade, each team must touch at least two of the other teams in a deal. That can be as simple as sending cash, a protected pick or draft rights. But the touch rule must be satisfied by acquiring from or sending to at least two other teams in the deal.
• A handful of players can’t be traded due to various date-restrictions that don’t allow the player to be traded before the trade deadline. This season, that list includes:
• Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns)
• LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers)
• Stanley Johnson (San Antonio Spurs)
• Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• Maxi Kleber (Dallas Mavericks)
• C.J. McCollum (New Orleans Pelicans)
• Larry Nance Jr. (New Orleans Pelicans)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Dean Wade (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• Kemba Walker (Dallas Mavericks)
• Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors)

• A Traded Player Exception (TPE) is created when one team takes back less money in salary-matching for one player than they send out. TPEs are not traded, but are used to absorb players into the TPE without having to use salary-matching. TPEs are often created when team’s do a deal as laid out under the “Matching salary via other means” section.

Related

NBA Manage Roster Tool

Quite a few things have changed since we did our last round of cap space projections following 2022 free agency. Donovan Mitchell was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bojan Bogdanovic was traded to the Detroit Pistons and Patrick Beverley was moved to the Los Angeles Lakers. On the extension front, several veterans have reached contract extensions and multiple players signed rookie scale extensions.

There will be more trades to come with "Early Trade Season" opening soon. And there are going to be even more veteran extensions over the months to come.

With all that in mind, it’s time to look at some updated 2023 cap space projections.

(Note: 538’s 2022-23 NBA standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

1. Houston Rockets - $59.3 million
2. Indiana Pacers - $49.8 million
3. San Antonio Spurs - $47.1 million
4. Detroit Pistons - $44.8 million
5. Utah Jazz - $42.6 million
6. Los Angeles Lakers - $33.4 million
7. Orlando Magic - $32.8 million
8. Oklahoma City Thunder - $29.0 million
9. Charlotte Hornets - $18.4 million

Nine teams project to have cap space, and it could end up being fewer than that.

The Rockets seem likely to lead the cap space derby, as they have a roster that is mostly full of players on their rookie scale deals. Houston did knock a bit of their spending power off by inking Kevin Porter Jr. to an extension. But the Rockets got a great value, so it was smart to get that done at the expense of some 2022 spending power. Lastly, Houston seems like a near lock to have a bottom-three record, and thus a 14% chance at Victor Wembanyama.

Indiana could eat into some of their space by doing a renegotiation-and-extension with Myles Turner. Even if that happens, the Pacers should still have a sizeable chunk of cap space. That makes them a very interesting team, as they have a fun mix of young players and solid veterans, which supports them playing much better than was expected.

The Spurs seemingly have no interest in winning this year, as they’ve lost 11 straight as of this writing. They’re also liberally resting players whenever they can. That has San Antonio primed at a run at Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson. So, it should be a good pick, plus plenty of cap space for the Spurs this summer.

Detroit has had a lot of injuries, and that’s got them worse off than expected. But another high draft pick to team with an already exciting young core and nearly $45 million in spending power means the future remains bright. The Pistons did eat a bit into their spending power by signing Bojan Bogdanovic to an extension, but he’s still on a very tradable contract moving forward.

Utah is tough to peg. They’ve been better than expected, but have shown some signs of slipping over the last few weeks. Except the Jazz to get healthy and then give it a month or so to see where they are at. If they keep sliding in the standings, they could sell off the rest of their vets and this cap space projection could rise. If the Jazz play well, it makes it more likely they’ll keep some guys around and this number could drastically lessen. Keep an eye on Utah and the standings over the next two months.

The Lakers have more or less held steady, but by trading Talen Horton-Tucker for Patrick Beverley, they have the ability to clear over $30 million in cap space. The big question: Will Los Angeles sacrifice cap space and future draft picks to make a trade to help them win now?

Orlando could be a swing team. If they choose to keep players like Mo Bamba and Gary Harris, that’ll eat up all of the Magic’s potential cap space. That seems a little unlikely as both the frontcourt and guard lines are looking a bit crowded. And that’s true even despite lots of injuries. Expect Orlando to be a cap space team in July, in addition to being in the mix for Wembanyama or Henderson.

Oklahoma City tied up some future cap space by extending Kenrich Williams, but it was such a good value, that it was well worth it. The Thunder still have plenty of flexibility to play with, plus will likely add another good draft pick to the mix. One thing to watch? Roster spots are getting tight in OKC.

The Hornets remain a swing team. The Miles Bridges situation remains unsettled. If the Hornets were to keep control of his free agent rights, they won’t have cap space. If they set him free, and maybe move a veteran or two for expiring deals, Charlotte could create even more than what we’ve projected here. The Hornets are a team to keep an eye on over the next month or so.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Chicago Bulls
2. Memphis Grizzlies
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Sacramento Kings

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these four teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

The Grizzlies are the easiest team to slot in here. They’ve got a mostly full roster after extending their own players over the years. The only real free agent of note is Dillon Brooks, and there’s a decent chance he could be the next player to extend. But even with Brooks at a fair number for both sides and Memphis should have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Bulls, Wolves and Kings are all swing teams. If they choose to move on from some of their veterans (Nikola Vucevic, D’Angelo Russell and Harrison Barnes), then they could all be cap space teams. If they retain their rights to re-sign them, or move them in deals to bring in other players, they’ll be over the cap. But all could still be far enough under the tax to use the full MLE.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks
2. Boston Celtics
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Denver Nuggets
7. Golden State Warriors
8. LA Clippers
9. Miami Heat
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. New Orleans Pelicans
12. New York Knicks
13. Philadelphia 76ers
14. Phoenix Suns
15. Portland Trail Blazers
16. Toronto Raptors
17. Washington Wizards

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

The Cleveland Cavaliers fall into this group now, as they acquired Donovan Mitchell for several players late in the offseason. Instead of being a potential cap space team, the Cavs now have a core group locked in for the foreseeable future. If they re-sign Caris LeVert and/or Kevin Love, Cleveland will be working around the tax line.

Of this group, the teams that could end up with a bit more cap flexibility are Brooklyn, Dallas, Portland, Toronto and Washington.

Brooklyn remains in a weird spot. If Kyrie Irving walks, Kevin Durant might reissue his trade demand. At that point, who knows what the Nets cap space situation will be? At the very least, Brooklyn would have to come away by being well under the tax line.

The Mavericks have a few key free agents, plus a couple of players on partially guaranteed contracts they could move on from. If so, they’d free up some ability to make moves around Luka Doncic.

The Trail Blazers are only going to be flexible if they let Jerami Grant walk. That seems unlikely to happen, unless Portland draws a hard line at what they’ll extend Grant for. An extension for Grant is also likely. They’ll probably be right around, or slightly over, the tax with Grant back in the fold.

Toronto could potentially put themselves in position to have cap space, but that would mean moving on from Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. It’s more likely they’ll have those guys back, or have moved them in a trade, and that means the Raptors will be working around the tax line.

Washington has Bradley Beal on his massive new deal, but that’s really their only substantial long-term money. Their summer really hinges on what happens with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. If either re-signs for big money, the Wizards will be up against the tax.

When Jerami Grant’s name first surfaced in trade rumors last season with the Detroit Pistons, attached to that scuttlebutt was that Grant would insist upon an extension from whomever traded for him. A salary north of $25 million per year was bandied about as Grant’s starting point.

When the Portland Trail Blazers traded for Grant, nothing about an extension was really even mentioned. It was a possibility, but it was something left for “down the line”.

The reasons for that were twofold. The first reason is that the extension rules weren’t really going to allow for Grant to be traded and immediately extended. Sure, Portland and Detroit could have turned the Grant deal into an extend-and-trade transaction, but Grant would have left both money and years on the table. He was also far more likely to sign a standard Veteran Extension, as opposed to an extend-and-trade deal.

The second reason for not extending Grant right away was that the Trail Blazers wanted to see how he’d fit on the floor with their roster first. Grant was coming off of two seasons with rebuilding Detroit where he spent most of the time doing whatever he wanted. Not in a bad way, but more that Grant was the central hub and could facilitate the Pistons offense however he saw fit. If you want to be negative, a narrative of “good stats, bad team” built around Grant, and it was one his efficiency numbers, or lack thereof, supported.

Now, Grant has spent a quarter of a season in Portland and he’s erased some of those efficiency worries. Surrounded by better talent, the versatile forward isn’t taking tough, late-clock, contested looks quite as often. Because of that, Grant’s efficiency is back up around the levels it was at when he played on good Thunder and Nuggets teams.

That puts us back to the extension conversation. Grant himself recently said it’s not something he’s focused on right now. There’s probably some truth there, but for a valid reason. Until January 6, Grant isn’t eligible to extend for more than the limits of what he could have gotten via an extend-and-trade deal. That means Grant has no reason to think about extending until that restriction lifts.

For Grant, when he’s eligible, the decision comes down to extending or waiting to cash in as an unrestricted free agent this fall. Let’s break down what Grant could be looking at contract-wise.

The Veteran Extension

If you’ve followed along the Grant rumors, you probably heard the figures $112 million or $28 million thrown around for Grant. That’s probably because that’s the maximum he’d be eligible to extend for. Here’s what a full Veteran Extension for Grant would look like:

• 2023-24: $25,146,000
• 2024-25: $27,157,680
• 2025-26: $29,169,360
• 2026-27: $31,181,040
• Total: four years, $112,654,080

That’s the max Grant can get in a veteran extension. It’s a 20% bump off his current salary of $20,955,000 with 8% raises in the following years.

Given Grant is delivering on his currently nearly $21 million salary, and where the salary cap is heading, a contract that averages just over $28 million per season doesn’t seem unreasonable. However, it’s important to note that Grant will be in his early-30s throughout this extension.

Re-signing with the Trail Blazers as a free agent

Let’s say Grant continues to average 22.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, with a steal and a block per game. Oh, and let’s say he continues to hit for pretty great 47/47/76 shooting splits too. Grant may look for more than what he can get via a Veteran Extension. Here’s the max Portland could offer Grant as an unrestricted free agent this summer:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the 30% of the cap maximum Grant is eligible for as a player with nine years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $40.2 million.

That’s probably too much. Unless the Blazers feel really confident Grant is going to be an All-Star or All-NBA guy for at least three years of that deal, they likely won’t want to lock in that much long-term salary.

Signing with another team as a free agent

If, for some reason, Grant isn’t happy with the fit in Portland, he could leave as a free agent. It was somewhat of a shocker when he left a great situation in Denver in 2020 to sign with the rebuilding Pistons. So, there is some precedent. Here’s what a max deal with a new team would look like:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,230,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years, as Grant would be changing teams.

This deal is about $60 million or so more than Grant would lock in via a Veteran Extension with Portland. In a summer where he’d rate as one of the best available free agents, Grant could cash in. Currently, five teams project to have enough cap space to offer Grant a max deal. If one of them gets desperate as free agent targets dry up, Grant could land a huge contract.

Summary

Jerami Grant is turning in an incredible season. With better talent around him, Grant has seen his efficiency go back up, even though he’s maintaining his Detroit-volume. That means Grant should be in line for a big contract.

The question becomes: How big? How much can you pay for a combo forward that is about to hit his early-30s?

The answer is likely to be: A lot.

Grant’s not going to land a max deal. The five teams in position to offer that aren’t really great fits. Unless the Indiana Pacers really want to accelerate their rebuild (and that would mean moving on from Myles Turner), none of the cap space teams have a real need for Grant. The Detroit Pistons have been there, done that. The Houston Rockets are already overflowing with forwards, same for the Orlando Magic. The San Antonio Spurs are prioritizing youth and spreading money around, while the Utah Jazz are sort of tough to peg, as they aren’t fully in rebuilding mode. At least, they aren’t there yet.

That makes an extension with Portland Grant’s best bet. The Trail Blazers only recently dug themselves out of salary cap hell. After clearing away C.J. McCollum’s deal, Portland was able to reset their books a bit. They re-signed Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic for a combined $170 million over the next four years, but that’s fine. They are both delivering on their new deals.

The Blazers also extended Damian Lillard again. That should keep him in Portland for the productive balance of his career. And Joe Cronin inked Nassir Little to a team-friendly extension worth $28 million over four seasons.

Now, look for Portland to lock up another member of their new core. Grant’s side will probably start by asking for the full $112.6 million over four years. It’s really not a bad starting point, especially with how well Grant has fit in with the Blazers.

If that’s a bit rich for Portland, they could always counter with something in the $26-$27M AAV range. That could look like this:

• 2023-24: $25,000,000
• 2024-25: $26,000,000
• 2025-26: $27,000,000
• 2026-27: $28,000,000
• Total: four years, $106,000,000

That’s an average of $26.5M AAV. That seems to be fair value, considering the deal will take Grant through his age-33 season. Ideally, Portland would structure the deal to decline in value, but that would likely have to wait until the offseason. Because of the 20% cap in the first-year salary bump on an extension, it’s hard to pay Grant enough in first-year salary that a declining deal would still give him enough overall value.

The next question: Is $6 million or so enough to really quibble over? If Grant wants the maximum amount of $112.6 million in a Veteran Extension, Portland should just pay it. They’ve finally got the versatile, offense-defense, combo forward they’ve been looking for. To lose him over $6 million would be bad business for the Blazers.

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last four years, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and a couple of weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

• January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
• January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and include seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
• December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchanged for Dante Exum
• December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the results of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens in approximately three weeks.

Here’s an initial list of players to keep an eye on:

Jae Crowder (SF, PHX)

Contract Status: 1 year, $10.18M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $10,183,800 

This one is almost cheating, as everyone is waiting on a trade that sends Crowder away from Phoenix. Crowder requested a trade over the summer and hasn’t returned to the Suns, even with Cam Johnson out long-term. It’s just a matter of time before Crowder is dealt.

John Collins (PF, ATL)

Contract Status: 4 years, $102M through 2025-26 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $23,500,000 

The Hawks have been talking Collins’ trades for the better part of three years now. This year it feels like it really could happen. Collins’ role in the offense has shrunk after Atlanta acquired Dejounte Murray. In addition, Atlanta appears to be very tax-conscious right now. That’s not just for this season, but next season as well. That’s one of the motivating factors in talking about trading Collins.

Bojan Bogdanovic (SF, DET)

Contract Status: 1 year, $19.55M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $19,550,000 

Yes, Detroit recently extended Bogdanovic after acquiring him shortly before the preseason. But that extension makes Bogdanovic an even more interesting trade asset. A contender can acquire him now and feel good about Bogdanovic sticking around beyond just the rest of this season.

Jakob Poeltl (C, SAS)

Contract Status: 1 year, $9.40M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $9,398,148 

Poeltl is high on everyone’s list for the most likely center to be traded. He’s a top-tier rim protector, solid rebounder, better-than-you-think scorer and good passer. And Poeltl has a team-friendly deal at just $9.4 million. Unfortunately, that deal also makes it unlikely Poeltl will extend. So, if the Spurs think Poeltl might leave in free agency, exploring the trade market is best for a clearly rebuilding (read: tanking) team.

Myles Turner (C, IND)

Contract Status: 1 year, $18M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000 

Turner’s destiny is apparently to be in trade rumors for the rest of his career. But, as we recently wrote about, it’s more likely that Turner will do a very rare renegotiate-and-extend deal than it is that he’ll be traded. But until the deadline passes, Indiana’s big man will be in trade rumors every day.

Buddy Hield (SG, IND)

Contract Status: 2 years, $40.46M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $21,177,750 

Hield is in the same boat as Turner, as far as trade rumors go. But with the Pacers playing well, and not inclined to tank, Hield may stay put. His situation is slightly different, as Indiana has a bunch of younger guard prospects that could slide into Hield’s spot in the lineup this year or next.

Jordan Nwora (PF, MIL)

Contract Status: 2 years, $6.2M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $3,000,000 

Nwora is one of the lesser-known name on this list, but he’s an interesting trade candidate because of his $3 million salary. If the Bucks are going to make a deal for a rotation upgrade, it’s very likely that Nwora, and probably Grayson Allen, will be involved.

Patty Mills (PG, BKN)

Contract Status: 2 years, $6.8M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $6,479,000 

Mills has more or less fallen out of the Nets rotation. Even while Kyrie Irving was serving his suspension, Brooklyn went with other guards ahead of Mills. If the Nets are going to make a deal, Mills and his $6.5 million deal will likely be involved.

Mike Muscala (PF, OKC)

Contract Status: 2 years, $7M through 2023-24 (includes Club Option)

2022-23 Salary: $3,500,000 

Despite his recent (minor) injury, Muscala will be someone teams looking for a big will ask about. He could be a solid 15-20 minutes per game contributor on a contender.

Mo Bamba (C, ORL)

Contract Status: 2 years, $20.6M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 fully non-guaranteed)

2022-23 Salary: $10,300,000 

This one will take a bit longer, as Bamba isn’t trade-eligible until January 15. But Orlando has a glut of bigs now, and Bamba is on a very tradable deal. He’ll be in trade rumors as soon as he’s eligible to be dealt.

KZ Okpala and Chima Moneke (F, SAC)

Okpala Contract Status: 2 years, $3.97M through 2023-24 (2022-23 $500k guaranteed, 2023-24 fully non-guaranteed)

Okpala 2022-23 Salary: $1,902,133 

Moneke Contract Status: 2 years, $2.74M through 2023-24 (2022-23 $500k guaranteed, 2023-24 fully non-guaranteed)

Moneke 2022-23 Salary: $1,017,781 

Sometimes a team makes a fairly minor signing, pays a bit more than they should have, and they undo it about as soon as they can. If the Kings are making any kind of moves, it’s likely Okpala or Moneke will be involved.

JaVale McGee (C, DAL)

Contract Status: 3 years, $17.2M through 2024-25 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $5,461,219 

Similar to the Kings players above, but not really a minor signing, is McGee. After beginning the year as a starter, McGee is now buried in the Mavs rotation. This one screams a trade to correct a mistake of a summer signing.

Danilo Gallinari (PF, BOS)

Contract Status: 2 years, $13.28M through 2023-24 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $6,479,000 

This signing wasn’t a mistake, but Gallinari’s torn ACL during EuroBasket completely changes the context. Boston is kind of out of tradable deals, because their best contracts belong to rotation players. If the Celtics are going to upgrade their rotation, it could mean Gallinari being traded. Then, look for him to possibly opt out, and re-sign with Boston again in free agency next summer.

Amir Coffey (SG, LAC)

Contract Status: 3 years, $11M through 2024-25

2022-23 Salary: $3,395,062 

Coffey is a pretty good player. But if the Clippers are going to make a rotation upgrade at any point, they’ll need to part with a couple of good players. Coffey’s $3.4 million salary is the perfect throw-in salary amount to plus-up a trade. And he’s more than a throw-in player, which makes him a nice trade asset. The drawback? LA needs wing depth due to the shaky injury histories of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. That could see the Clips hold back from dealing Coffey.

NBA trade season is right around the corner. The early trade window opens on December 15, which is when the vast majority of players who signed deals over the offseason become trade-eligible. And if we’re closing in on trade season, that must mean it’s time for a fresh batch of Myles Turner trade rumors!

This is Year 8 for Turner, with all of them coming with the Indiana Pacers. For at least four or five of those years, he’s been one of the most-often mentioned players in trade rumors. The reasons for that are two-fold for Turner.

Keeping it on the floor first, Turner is a somewhat unique player. He has the ability to stretch the floor on offense, while protecting the rim on defense. That makes Turner fairly plug-and-play in most systems that NBA teams run.

Secondly, but of equal importance, Turner is on a very tradable contract. He’s in the final year of a four-year, $72 million rookie scale extension that he signed in 2018. Any NBA contract is tradable, but a deal for less than $20 million is generally very easy to match salary for.

Combine the production and the contract, and Turner is consistently in trade rumors. Then, factor in that he’ll only turn 27 years old in March, plus the Pacers being in a rebuild, and the rumor mill is hitting overdrive.

But…Turner is on an expiring contract. That means a new deal is coming soon. Traded or not, Myles Turner is only eight months (at most!) from getting a big new contract. What we’re going to do today is look at what that new contract might look like.

The Veteran Extension

Myles Turner is eligible through the end of the league year to sign a veteran extension with the Indiana Pacers. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Turner’s ability to extend with Indiana runs all the way through June 30.

Here’s what a maximum veteran extension would look like for Turner:

• 2023-24: $21,600,000
• 2024-25: $23,328,000
• 2025-26: $25,056,000
• 2026-27: $26,784,000
• Total: four years, $96,768,000

That’s a 120% raise off of Turner’s $18,000,000 salary for 2022-23, with 8% raises in the years after that.

At first glance, that doesn’t look bad. It’s nearly $100 million for Turner into his early-30s. But it’s well short of Turner’s maximum salary that he could collect as a free agent. In addition, with the cap projected to go way up over the next few years, Turner would be better off betting on himself than taking even a slightly under-market extension.

Re-signing with the Pacers as a free agent

Let’s say Myles Turner sticks in Indiana despite the rumors (he’s made it seven years already!) and the Pacers rebuild seems ahead of schedule. Maybe Turner will want to re-sign with Indiana.

The Pacers can offer him a max deal that would look like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% max Turner is eligible for with eight years or service. This deal also includes the maximum 8% raises for Turner.

An average annual value (AAV) of $46.6 million feels a bit steep for Turner. You’d have to believe he can become an All-NBA center to commit that much money to him at this point. But, we’ve now established the absolute top-end max we’re looking at for the Pacers big man.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

Continuing with our scenarios, let’s say Turner isn’t traded (again, he’s made it seven years already!), but he and/or the Pacers are ready to move on this summer. Turner will be an unrestricted free agent and here’s the max he could get from another team:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,230,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s still 30% of the cap, but the raises are only 5%. And, because Turner would be changing teams, he’d be limited to only signing a four-year deal. Players can only get a five-year contract when re-signing with their current team.

That’s an AAV of $43 million or so. If we compare to a four-year max from the Pacers, it’s a difference of about $2 million per season in terms of AAV. If a $43 million AAV still seems steep, remember that we’re setting max points here.

We’ve now got three max data points locked in: The Veteran Extension, max with the Pacers and max with another team. But there are a couple of other scenarios we need to consider for Turner, as well.

The Extend-and-Trade

You might have heard that Myles Turner is in trade rumors. (Just kidding! We know you know that.) But what if a team wanted Turner locked in for years beyond this season? The Pacers and the acquiring team, along with Turner, could agree on an extend-and-trade deal. It would look like this:

• 2022-23: $18,000,000
• 2023-24: $18,900,000
• 2024-25: $19,845,000
• Total: three years, $56,745,000

We included the current year for Turner, since an extend-and-trade is extremely restrictive. In an extend-and-trade, the total length of the contract can only be three seasons. In this case, Turner can only add two new years onto his current deal. In addition, raises in an extend-and-trade are limited to 5%.

As you can see, Turner would be adding (in relative terms) very little to his current salary in an extend-and-trade. Essentially, Turner would have to really, really want to be heading to the acquiring team to do a deal like this. A more likely scenario would be Turner is traded to a new team and simply signs a new contract as a free agent in July.

Extending after a trade

If Myles Turner was to be traded to another team, he could still extend with that team. Unfortunately, he’d have to wait six months to sign an extension which is larger than the extend-and-trade scenario laid out above. That makes timing really, really important to watch as to when Turner would theoretically be traded.

And, in that extension, the acquiring team would still be capped at offering the Veteran Extension. That contract would look exactly the same as laid out above.

The Renegotiate-and-Extend

It’s extremely rare for an NBA contract to be renegotiated. First, a player must be extension-eligible. That’s a fairly small list of players each season. Of that list, the player must be on a team that has cap space available in order to complete the renegotiation portion of the renegotiate-and-extend.

Going back to 2015, only three players have completed a renegotiate-and-extend deal. Robert Covington did a four-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017. And Danilo Gallinari (two years) and Wilson Chandler (four years) signed renegotiate-and-extend deals with the Denver Nuggets in 2015.

Myles Turner fits both of these criteria at this moment. Turner is extension-eligible and the Indiana Pacers are sitting on up to $30 million in available cap space.

Pegging what an renegotiate-and-extend could look like is a bit tricky. Because the team would use existing cap space, they aren’t really limited to just the 120% allowed in a Veteran Extension.

That means it’s all about negotiation on that first-year salary, but that also has an impact on the subsequent years as well.

In a renegotiation-and-extend deal, a player is eligible to take their contract all the way up to their maximum salary, assuming the team has enough available cap space to do so. In this case, Turner makes $18 million for this season, with a maximum salary of $37,096,500. That’s a difference of roughly $19.1 million, which the Pacers are certainly able to give Turner given their existing cap space.

In full, if Turner did a renegotiate-and-extend deal for the max he’s allowed, it would look like this:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500
• 2023-24: $40,064,220
• 2024-25: $43,031,940
• 2025-26: $45,999,660
• 2026-27: $48,967,380
• Total: five years, $215,159,700

This contract would take Turner’s salary from $18,000,000 to his max of $37,096,500 for this season. Then the additional years would have an 8% raise on them. Once again, the renegotiation to the max allowable for Turner is made possible by the Pacers still having up to $30 million in cap space available.

It’s important to note that the above is the max Turner could get in a renegotiate-and-extend deal. The Pacers and Turner could agree on any number in terms of renegotiated 2022-23 salary up to his max, and they could also agree to deal that runs less than five total years, or less than 8% raises.

In addition, Indiana and Turner could agree to get really funky with a new deal and lower the first season of the extension by up to 40% off of the renegotiated 2022-23 salary. That would bring Turner’s deal in the first year of the extension in 2023-24 down to around $22 million. Essentially, Turner would get a bonus in this current league year, using Indiana’s leftover cap space, and then tack on a few years at a more reasonable number moving forward.

Note: Turner can only do a renegotiation-and-extension with Pacers.

Summary

We’ve given five options for Myles Turner’s next deal. We can eliminate the Veteran Extension and the Extend-and-Trade as viable options, as they aren’t going to pay Turner enough for him to sign either of those deals. He’d simply be leaving too much money on the table.

That leaves three realistic options: Turner re-signs with the Pacers, leaves Indiana in free agency or does a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal to stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known.

Despite the fact that Turner is constantly in trade rumors, it’s important to note that he’s never actually been traded. There has to be something to that. Players rarely make it through years and years of rumors to end up staying with a team. When that happens, it’s generally because the player and the team have no desire to end their relationship.

With that in mind, a Renegotiate-and-Extend may be Turner’s best option. It doesn’t rule out a trade long-term, but it would increase the odds of Turner sticking around in Indiana. The key is to keep Turner a viable trade asset on the next contract.

If the Pacers have no other plans for their nearly $30 million in remaining cap space, why not use $19 million or so to bring Turner up to his max of $37.1 million for this season? Think of that as a bonus for his years of service to the Pacers and for signing what will likely be a balanced (read: team-friendly) extension in the subsequent years. And it’s those subsequent years that matter.

Here’s a proposal for a deal that could work for both Turner and Indiana:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
• 2023-24: $24,000,000
• 2024-25: $25,920,000
• 2025-26: $27,840,000
• 2026-27: $29,760,000
• Total: five years, $144.6 million

This deal would see Turner get a bump up to his full max for this season using some of Indiana’s available cap space. Then, he would add on what is essentially a four-year, $107.5 million extension. That’s an AAV of almost $27 million per year. That’s kind of right in the sweet spot between the $25 and $30 million per year value that seems fair for turner on his next deal.

If you prefer, add the $19 million or so extra from the renegotiation portion of the deal, and Turner would get roughly $126 million in new money. That would bring the AAV for the new years to about $31.5 million. Just over the target range, but without getting crazy.

The other option for the Pacers, and perhaps a preferable one, would be to reverse the cap hits on the extension. That deal would look like this:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
• 2023-24: $29,760,000
• 2024-25: $27,840,000
• 2025-26: $25,920,000
• 2026-27: $24,000,000
• Total: five years, $144.6 million

The overall money remains the same, but Turner takes just less than an 8% decline in salary year over year. That way, when Turner is approaching his early-30s in the later years of the deal, the cap hits are reasonable for a player of that age and he remains tradable from Indiana’s point of view.

Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers are in an interesting spot. Trade rumors will continue to be floated, probably even after Turner signs a new deal. But because the rare circumstances exist to do a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal, it would behoove the Pacers and Turner to take advantage and at least extend their partnership for a little while longer.