The Buccaneers head into a tumultuous offseason, current estimated to hold the worst cap situation (-$55M) in all of football, due in large part to the voiding contract and uncertainty of QB Tom Brady. We’ll dive into each position group, breaking down contract statuses, potential restructures, extensions, cuts, & more.

RELATED

• 2023 Buccaneers Salary Cap Table
• 2023 Buccaneers Free Agents

The Quarterback Room

It’s Complicated

Instead of predicting what might happen with Tom Brady, we’ll just quickly lay out a few possibilities - because they offer varying results for Tampa Bay financially speaking.

Worst Case Scenario: Brady signs with a new team this March. Not only does this leave the Bucs without a viable QB1 (barring a Carr trade), but it also means his previous contract has officially voided, leaving the full $35.1M of dead cap on their 2023 books. For now, this feels like the most likely scenario.

Best Case Scenario: Brady agrees to a 1 year, $1.165M extension that stops his current contract from automatically voiding. The two sides agree to keep his $11.9M cap hit on the books through June 1st, after which he can officially process his retirement. The move splits his dead cap up into $10.776M for 2023, $24.3M for 2024. 

Potentially Bester Case Scenario: Brady re-signs with the Bucs, assumedly to another 1 year $30M contract, that also includes a $30M “option” for 2024. It’s a minimum base salary with an offsetting roster bonus (treated as a signing bonus, but protects Brady from having to pay it back in any instance). This drops his 2023 cap hit from $35.1M to $17.7M.


After 2023, the Bucs can go a number of ways with the contract, but assuming he retires, they can drop the $30M salary down to a minimum $1.21M, carry his $17.7M cap hit through June 1st, then process his retirement as a Post 6/1 move. This splits up his dead cap into $16.5M for 2024, $30.8M for 2025.


Elsewhere, backup QB Blaine Gabbert is also a pending free agent, while 2021 2nd rounder Kyle Trask enters Year 3 of his rookie contract.

The Running Back Room

Another White/Fournette Split Season

$2M of Leonard Fournette’s 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed. Another $2M locks in March 19th, which should mean his roster spot is secured. A full base salary conversion + void years can free up $4.3M of space for the Bucs. If the Bucs can find a buyer on an essential 1 year, $7M deal for Fournette, they can open up $5.4M of space by trading him, but that seems unlikely.

2022 3rd rounder Rachaad White enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, set to earn a non-guaranteed $938k next season. He caught 50 passes in 2022 and is a fringe breakout candidate heading into the offseason (especially if Fournette is moved). 2020 3rd rounder Ke'Shawn Vaughn enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.2M. He saw 21 snaps last season and should be considered a cut candidate for now ($1.2M to be saved).

The Wide Receiver Room

Extending or Ending the Evans Tenure

29-year-old Mike Evans enters a contract year in Tampa, set to earn $14.5M on a $23.6M cap hit. He posted another strong campaign in 2022 but reeled in only 6 TDs, a 6 year low. There’s a world where the Bucs field trade calls for their long-time WR1, though doing so early in the offseason would only free up $2.3M of cap space. A strong haul of draft picks still might make it worth their time. Contractually, Evans projects to a 4 year, $92M extension in our system.

Chris Godwin enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $60M deal, set to earn $20M on a $23.75M cap hit next season. Tampa can free up $15.1M of space with a base salary conversion + void years.

$5M of Russell Gage’s $10M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed. The 27 year old continues to recover from a scary neck/head injury in the Wild Card round game against Dallas, but should be back in the fold this offseason. Tampa can free up $7.1M of cap with a base salary conversion + void years.

Julio Jones, Breshad Perriman, & Scotty Miller are all slated for unrestricted free agency this March, with the former leaving behind a $3.4M dead cap hit per voidable years.

The Tight End Room

Young & Cheap

2022 4th rounder Cade Otton jumped to the top of the depth chart in his inaugural campaign, finishing 2022 with 42 catches, 2 of them scores. With 3 years, $2.95M non-guaranteed left on his rookie deal, the Bucs are hoping for strong value out of this relationship for a few more seasons.

Cameron Brate has been a bubble player each of the past 3 offseasons, opting to restructure or take a pay cut in order to remain in the fold. Moving on from him this March only frees up $2M of space, but the Bucs need every dollar they can ascertain right now.

2022 6th rounder Ko Kieft will compete for the TE2 spot, while vet Kyle Rudolph is off to free agency again.

The Offensive Line

Get Healthy Get Right

Left Tackle Donovan Smith missed 4 games in 2022 - an unfortunate theme for the Bucs last season. He enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $15.25M on a $17.9M cap hit. If Tampa trusts him to settle back into 2021 form, a restructured contract extension makes sense for both sides. The 29 year old carries a $19.5M valuation in our system.

Left Guard remains a bit of a mystery for the Bucs, as 2022 2nd rounder Luke Goedeke was drafted to slot immediately into the role, but failed to maintain it. UDFA Nick Leverett took the reins and held the spot until the injury bug hit him too. It’s a major area of need going forward.

Ryan Jensen missed the entire regular season with a nasty knee injury, starting the domino effect of Bucs’ injury woes. $9M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, and another $3.5M locks in March 19th.

Right Guard Shaq Mason enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $8.5M on a $9.5M cap hit. Mason struggled to help the run game last season, but held his own as a pass blocker. There’s $5.2M of cap to be freed up by moving on, but the Bucs may opt to restructure and keep him in the mix through 2023.

Right Tackle Tristan Wirfs is the obvious bright star of this group, posting outstanding numbers across the board as he becomes extension eligible for the first time. The 24-year-old projects to a 5 year, $116M deal in our system, but may have to wait a year for his payday. 

The Defensive Line

Vita & Crickets

In Vita Vea enters Year 3 of a 6 year $81M deal, set to earn $13M on a $15.6M cap hit in 2023. His $12.5M salary is already fully guaranteed for the upcoming season, and $9.1M of his cap hit can be freed up with a salary conversion.

On the outside, 2022 2nd rounder Logan Hall enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, while Akiem Hicks, William Gholston, Pat O'Connor, & Rakeem Nunez-Roches are all pending free agents.

The Linebackers

The Future of Devin White

30-year-old Shaquil Barrett enters Year 3 of a 4 year, $68M deal, and while none of his $15M to be earned is guaranteed, $23.1M of dead cap set against it likely keeps him in the fold. He’s recovering from a torn achilles and should be a full go come the 2023 season.

2021 1st rounder Joe Tryon enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, coming off of another 4 sack season for the Bucs. He’s under contract through 2025 including his 5th year option.

On the inside, Devin White enters his fully guaranteed 5th year option season, set to earn $11.7M in 2023. He remained productive in 2022, posting 5.5 sacks, 124 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, but his coverage numbers and side to side analytics continue to grade out poorly. There may be a team that views White as a near top of the market $17M+ player, but I’m not sure the Bucs are that team. With that said, Tampa Bay can restructure his $11.7M salary with 4 void years, freeing up $9.3M this season. Vet Lavonte David is slated for free agency this March.

The Secondary

Priority

LCB Jamel Dean is slated for free agency, valuing toward a 3 year, $350M contract in our system, while his counterpart Carlton Davis enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $44.5M deal, set to earn $15M for the upcoming season, $14.5M of which will be fully guaranteed by March 19th. $10.7M of cap space can be opened up by converting that $14.5M into bonus.

2022 5th rounder Zyon McCollum might be asked to step into Dean’s departing role, as  Sean Bunting is also a pending free agent.

Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. enters a contract year in 2023, projected to earn near $3M with a performance bonus built into his salary. Marcus Williams’ 5 year, $70M deal in Baltimore is a strong comp for Winfield’s next payday. Mike Edwards, Logan Ryan, & Keanu Neal making the secondary a serious priority this March & April.

The Special Teamers

Bubble Kicker

K Ryan Succop enters a contract year in 2023, set to carry a  $4.5M cap hit. Having missed almost 20% of his field goals last season, the Bucs could opt for the $3.75M of cap space to be freed up here.

2022 4th round punter Jake Camarda enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, while veteran LS Zach Triner enters a contract year on a minimum $1M salary.

Following their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Buffalo Bills now enter offseason mode, projecting to carry around -$16M of Top 51 cap space, including 9 players with hits north of $10M next season. We’ll dive into each position group, breaking down contract statuses, potential restructures, extensions, cuts, & more.

Related

• 2023 Bills Salary Cap Table
• Bills 2023 Free Agents

The Quarterback Room

Restructure & Replenish

Josh Allen skids into the postseason having battled injury & poor play down the stretch, but (obviously) remains the key piece to Buffalo’s puzzle going forward. Contractually speaking his deal contains early vesting guarantees through the 2025 season, with $97.5M to be earned over the next three seasons. His $39.7M cap hit for 2023 ranks 4th in the NFL, making him a restructure candidate this March. A full base salary conversion can open up over $21M of space for the Bills in 2023.

Behind him Case Keenum is a pending free agent, having taken just 24 regular season snaps for the Bills in his 1 season. 

The Running Back Room

Consider the Options

RB1 Devin Singletary heads to the open market this March with a $5.5M valuation attached to him. He joins a large list of potentially available halfbacks this free agency.

2022 2nd rounder James Cook holds 3 years, $3.7M remaining on his rookie deal, and is likely thrust into a much larger role next season. Deadline acquisition Nyheim Hines has 2 more years left on his deal, but not of the $10.2M available carries an early guarantee, and the Bills can free up $4.8M of 2023 space by moving on. Hines probably sticks next season with a small restructure for cap purposes.

There’s a dream world where a Miles Sanders type player steps into this offense and balances it out immediately, but there’s another, simpler, more likely world where Buffalo brings in an Alexander Mattison type at a near minimum salary to better serve their financial bottom line. 

The Wide Receiver Room

All In for a 2

29-year old Stefon Diggs enters Year 2 of his 6 year, $124M total contract, set to earn $24.4M on a $20M cap hit next season. Buffalo can restructure his $7.91M salary down to $1.65M, but keeping dead cap at bay on this deal will be a priority for GM Brandon Beane.

Gabriel Davis holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1M contract which should represent decent value - even if the Bills drop him down the depth chart a bit with a signature WR add this offseason.

Youngster Khalil Shakir enters Year 2 of his rookie contract, with 3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed remaining. His role continued to grow as the regular season aged on, and he could be developed into an important piece of the puzzle this summer. Isaiah McKenzie more than doubled his production from 2021->2022, finishing with 4 TDs and over 10.1 yards per reception. His role seemed to be reduced heavily down the stretch though, and Buffalo can free up $2.2M of space by moving on in some capacity.

Don’t be surprised if Buffalo makes a big add here, potentially via trade. This is a win now team without time to “see how it develops”.

The Tight End Room

Lightly In for a 2

Dawson Knox enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $54.5M contract, set to earn $12.5M on a $6.4M cap hit this season. $10M of his 2024 compensation becomes fully guaranteed this March. He’ll be year-to-year thereafter.

Behind him, Quintin Morris is on a minimum salary, while Tommy Sweeney is slated for free agency. If Knox is going to remain a more down field threat in the passing game, a block first, short yardage TE2 is on the wishlist.

The Offensive Line

Middle Out Compression

Left Tackle Dion Dawkins enters Year 4 of his 5 year contract, set to earn $9.85M on a $14.8M cap hit. Buffalo can free up $6.15M of 2023 cap with a base salary conversion, but that would make back to back offseasons doing so.

Left Guard Rodger Saffold is slated for free agency (leaving behind $2M of dead cap), while Center Mitch Morse is a roster bubble candidate, as his release can open up $6.3M of space. The 30 year old is one of the locker room leaders on this team, but with Ryan Bates able to slide over to the center position from his current right guard slot, Buffalo may opt to get out of this contract.

Right Guard Ryan Bates holds a fully guaranteed $4M in 2023, on a tenable $4.875M cap hit, while Right Tackle Spencer Brown has 2 years, $2.4M (non-guaranteed) left on his rookie deal.

There’s an addition or two to be made here, with a 1st round selection this April very possible. 

The Defensive Line

Oliver's Twist

Ed Oliver enters his fully guaranteed $10.75M 5th year, putting the Bills in a tough spot as he heads toward a contract year. He seemed a slam dunk to be (mildly) extended heading into the 2022 season, but there’s argument to be made that the production and consistency just doesn’t warrant it.

Tim Settle offered limited production in a limited role, and his near $5M cap hit likely falls off freeing up $2.2M. DaQuan Jones is half fully guaranteed and sticks around.

The Bills have other needs (WR2, ILB, S, G/C) but finding a run stuffer in the middle that doesn’t break the bank has to be in the conversation.

The Edge Defender

Run it Back

Von Miller returns for Year 2 of his massive contract, fully guaranteed through 2023, and mostly guaranteed through 2024 right now. His presence was missed down the stretch in 2022, but it’s a reminder that despite his high pay, Buffalo can’t rely on him as a truly full-time player.

Greg Rousseau enters Year 3 of his 5-year rookie contract, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.7M. He posted 7 sacks in 12 2022 games, and should be asked to do even more next season. The same might not be said for 2020 2nd rounder A.J. Epenesa, who enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.4M. He’ll enter March as a trade/cut candidate in our book.

Elsewhere, Carlos Basham Jr. holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2.5M, while Jordan Phillips & Shaq Lawson are slated for free agency.

The Linebackers

Will Edmunds Play Ball

Matt Milano proved he’s worth every dollar again in 2022, making up for a dip in sacks (1.5) with 3 interceptions, and 72 solo tackles. He’s year to year now in his remaining 2 years $20M.

2022 3rd rounder Terrel Bernard saw limited work in his first campaign, but could be asked to step into much bigger shoes if pending free agent Tremaine Edmunds isn’t retained. Edmunds finished his best season to date, but his 5 years in Buffalo were inconsistent to say the least, putting him on an $11M valuation heading toward the open market. Many believe he’s a $17M per year player when it’s all said and done. Edmunds backup A.J. Klein is also headed back to free agency.

The Secondary

Safety First

Tre'Davious White only saw action in 6 regular season games as he worked his way back from a torn ACL. He’s more than half guaranteed ($6.35M) through 2023 right now, while the remaining $3.25M locks in March 19th. White’s contract gets right side up after the upcoming season, meaning the Bills will have an out if they feel like he can’t return to All-Pro form.

Kaiir Elam enters Year 2 of his 5 year rookie contract, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.3M this season. He held his own in 12 games of action, grabbing 2 INTs in his rookie campaign, and is likely asked to take over the full-time RCB starting role next September.

Behind them, Dane Jackson is headed to restricted free agency, with a projected $2.6M tender in front of him. Taron Johnson enters Year 3 of a 4 year deal, set to account for $9.215M of 2023 cap. There’s $4.2M to be saved by moving off of that contract, but Johnson seems too valuable to give up on this March. A small restructure to free up some space makes sense here.

The safety position might hold the most question marks on this roster going forward, as Jordan Poyer is now set to hit the open market (values at $11M per year), and Micah Hyde gets set to return from a season long neck injury, on an expiring 1 year, $7.2M contract ($10.5M cap hit). It’s tough to imagine the 32 year old getting another contract in Buffalo, but the Bills can open up $4.5M of cap space by processing a full cash conversion.

Behind them, Damar Hamlin’s return is obviously in serious question (2 years, $2M non-guaranteed remaining on his contract), while Siran Neal holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $5.5M deal.

The Special Teamers

Long Term Bass

K Tyler Bass made 87.5% of his field goals for the 2nd straight season, cashing 43/45 PATs as well. The 6th round pick enters a contract year in 2023, and should be considered an extension candidate. He projects to a 4 year, $19.2M contract in our system.

P Sam Martin had his lowest number of attempts in 6 years, and is headed to free agency this March, while LS Reid Ferguson is under contract at a non-guaranteed 2 years, $2.2M.

With their loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys now enter offseason mode, projecting to carry around $6M of Top 51 cap space, including 5 players with hits north of $13M next season. We’ll dive into each position group, breaking down contract statuses, potential restructures, extensions, cuts, & more.

Related:

• 2023 Cowboys Cap Table
• 2023 Cowboys Free Agents

The Quarterback Room

Status: Treading Lightly?

Dak Prescott enters Year 3 of his 4 year, $160M contract, including $31M fully guaranteed next season. His cap figure skyrockets to $49.1M for 2023, putting the Cowboys in another difficult financial position. Dallas has already restructured the Prescott deal twice, piling up future cap hits and dead cap counts. Converting $26M of his next year salary into signing bonus can free up over $20M of cap space, but it means $60M of dead cap now tied to a non-guaranteed 2024 season - and $37.4M of dead cap tied to a voidable 2025.

We’ll know a lot about the Cowboys’ confidence in Dak by mid-April. If Dallas goes light (or not at all) on restructuring the 2023 cap hit, it’s a sign that they have reservations about his long term status.

Behind him, Cooper Rush is a pending UFA & Will Grier holds a non-guaranteed $1.08M.

The Running Back Room

Status: Questions

Despite remaining a fan favorite (and potentially a front office favorite), Ezekiel Elliott’s massive contract finally gets right side up in 2023, meaning the Cowboys can actually save cap space by moving on. Elliott holds 4 non-guaranteed years at $52.9M total, and a $16.72M cap hit for 2023 (2nd most in all of football). Dallas can free up $4.68M of space by moving on before June 1st, $10.9M if the move is processed after June 1st.

Behind (next) to him, Tony Pollard hits the open market with an awful broken fibula injury attached to him. His rise to RB1 production had him valuing toward a 3 year, $27M contract in our system, but that’s now TBD based on his health. It’s possible that Dallas slaps an estimated $10M franchise tag on him next month to lock in his roster spot - especially if moving on from Elliott is also in their plans.

Youngster Malik Davis has a minimum salary deal for 2023.

The Pass Catcher Room

Status: Amari Cooper for a 5th

Just a reminder that Amari Cooper was trading to the Browns for a 5th round pick, and a 6th round pick swap.

CeeDee Lamb is now extension eligible to the first time, and padded his market value nicely in 2022. The 23 year old now projects to a baseline 4 year, $90M extension in our system, though A.J. Brown’s $25M per year is very much in play here.

Michael Gallup enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $57M contract, including $11M fully guaranteed for 2023 ($13.8M cap hit). It’s most likely a make it or break it season for the 26 year old, as Dallas can move off of this contract with ease after 2023.

2022 4th rounder Jake Ferguson could move into the TE1 role next year, though bringing back Dalton Schultz (pending UFA) or adding an offseason vet should very much be in the cards.

Elsewhere, Noah Brown, T.Y. Hilton are all slated for free agency this March.

The Offensive Line

Status: Tyron on the Bubble?

2022 1st rounder Tyler Smith has all but secured the left tackle position going forward, and his 3 year, $5.7M + 5th year option in 2026 contract certainly equals great value in that regard.

Former blindside tackle Tyron Smith missed most of 2022, and has only been active for 17 games over the past 3 seasons. He took over right tackle duties upon returning, but enters a contract season in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $13.6M, with a $17.6M cap hit. Dallas can free up $9.5M of cap by moving on this March. He’s one of the better roster bubble candidates across the league this offseason.

Zack Martin was named to the AP All-Pro 1st team - his sixth such honor. The 32 year old holds a non-guaranteed 2 years, $27.5M, including a $19.8M cap hit for 2023. Dallas can open up $9.8M of space by restructure his base salary.

Left Guard/Center Connor McGovern is a pending free agent, while Tyler Biadasz, who started 16 games this season, enters the final year of his rookie contract.

The Defensive Line

Status: Young & Cheap

The Cowboys interior D-Line is full of young options as Osa Odighizuwa (Year 3), Sam Williams (Year 2), & Neville Gallimore (Year 4) all remain on rookie deals to start 2023. Vet ??Johnathan Hankins is slated for free agency.

The Edge Rushers

Status: All Good

One of the better groups in all of football remain under contract through 2023. Micah Parsons enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, and becomes extension eligible after the upcoming season (get your orders in affair Jerry).

30 year old DeMarcus Lawrence (6 sacks, 65 tackles, 3 forced fumbles) holds a whopping $26M cap hit for 2023, and his $15M salary is already fully guaranteed. A full salary conversion can open up more than $11M of space for Dallas.

2018 4th rounder Dorance Armstrong enters a contract year in 2023, coming off of his most productive season to date (6.5 sacks, 33 tackles, 1 forced fumble). There’s $4M to be saved here by moving on, but his $7M cap figure should be fair value based on his recent output. He becomes even more valuable with Dante Fowler Jr. slated for free agency behind him.

The Linebackers

Status: Priority Add

Vets Anthony Barr & Leighton Vander Esch are both pending UFAs, leaving 2022 5th rounder Damone Clark & 2021 4th rounder Jabril Cox as the only off-ball linebacker options under contract. Dallas could stand to improve here, though they won’t necessarily be able to break the bank in order to do so.

The Secondary

Status: Safety Valves

This time last season, Trevon Diggs was on a fast track to getting his early contract extension. While his overall production predictably came back down to earth (59 tackles, 3 INTs) it’s his inconsistency in coverage that really has many questioning the path forward (nearly 70% of balls thrown at him were caught). Dallas is probably ok seeing one more season to get a better picture.

Anthony Brown was on his way to securing a 3rd contract with Dallas before an achilles tear. He’s slated for free agency this March. His replacement DaRon Bland wound up being one of the better stories on the roster, as the 2022 5th rounder picked off 5 passes this past season. He’ll enter Year 2 of his value rookie deal next season.

Both safeties, Jayron Kearse & Malik Hooker will enter contract years in 2023, and both have a case for extensions. Dallas is thin at this position, so tacking on a few years to these vets while also replenishing this pool via the draft makes a lot of sense this Spring.

The Special Teamers

Status: Kicker Out, Punter Cut?

Kicker Brett Maher is an expiring contract and it seems impossible he returns to Dallas anytime soon. Punter Bryan Anger holds a 2 year, $5.2M contract, with $1.2M of that becoming fully guaranteed March 19th. The Cowboys can open up $1.4M of cap space if they decide to move on prior to that.

Before we lay out the options here, a few initial thoughts and points. We project the Ravens to enter the offseason with about $32.8M of Top 51 cap space - which is also what we project the non-exclusive franchise tag for quarterbacks to value to. No big deal, Baltimore will just restructure a few contracts and be free and clear for March 15th, right?

Kind of. Baltimore utilizes a double-bonus structure in almost all of their larger contracts, which does the job of spreading the cap out at the time of signing, offering less chance to restructure in big waves down the road. That doesn't mean they can't restructure base salaries and free up space, in fact doing so with Ronnie Stanley & Maron Humphrey can open up more than $16M of room - it just means there's less meat on the bone right now than other teams might have to work with.

This is in no way a claim that the Ravens won't be able to handle a tag for Jackson, rather simply a point that a $32M+ cap hit will be a big deal to this front office ($8M more than any cap hit Baltimore has ever rostered), and it will affect the way they do business in the coming months.

The Exclusive Franchise Tag

The most likely option (still) is that the Baltimore Ravens slap an exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson this February. Why? Because it gives them absolute control over the situation this spring. Lamar won't be able to negotiate with another team. And if the relationship breaks down, the Ravens can trade Jackson for whatever asking price they wish.

The exclusive QB tag currently projects to cost $45.24M. Except not yet. This exact figure won't be determined until after the restricted tender season ends, somewhere around early April. What does this mean for the Ravens? Baltimore will carry the non-exclusive franchise tag value (projected to be around $32M) until that exclusive price is set.

The exclusive price is based on the Top 5 QB cap hits, workout bonuses excluded. Right now, those 5 figures are extremely fluid, as Deshaun Watson's $54.9M, Dak Prescott's $49.1M, & Patrick Mahomes' $46.8M cap figures are surely to be restructured, while Josh Allen's $39.7M figure is most likely to be converted down, & Ryan Tannehill's $36.6M number might be removed altogether based on his roster status. In other words, let's treat this is as a $32M hit in March until further notice.

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag

The Ravens utilize the non-exclusive tag, currently projected to value at $32M, this February. Why? Because they aren't worried about him signing an offer sheet elsewhere. They'll match it. The idea of him leaving on an offer sheet and Baltimore getting back only 2 first round picks for their QB1 is moot, because the Ravens simply won't let it get to that point. What's the thinking then behind this move? Let's see if another franchise offers what Lamar has been holding out for - a fully guaranteed, Deshaun Watson contract. Be careful what you wish for Baltimore.

The Tag & Trade

Lamar Jackson is offered a franchise tag, but the two sides are already too far apart on negotiation to even get back to the drawing board with it. The Ravens start fielding trade calls and are certain to be seeking something along the lines of the package that Deshaun Watson was valued at last March: Three first round picks, 1 third round pick, 2 4th round picks.

Jackson will need to sign the franchise tag in order to process the trade, so that won't happen until A) He's happy with the team that's agreed to the trade. B) The acquiring team has offered the multi-year extension he's been seeking.

At this juncture, we'd place this option as the favorite in the clubhouse for a variety of reasons.

A Multi-Year Extension

Jackson and the Ravens agree to a multi-year contract extension in the coming weeks, avoiding the need to use the franchise tag. Here's what matters most to Lamar for this negotiation:

Top Guarantees
1. Deshaun Watson, $230M
2. Kyler Murray, $189.5M
3. Russell Wilson $161M
4. Aaron Rodgers, $150.8M
5. Josh Allen, $150M
VIEW ALL

The Ravens likely classify the Watson deal as a standalone bag of trash, which is fine - except agents and players will refuse to. Will the two sides compromise in the middle of the Top 2? Would a 4 year, $200M, fully guaranteed offer get the job done? It's certainly not something we'd expect from Baltimore, but it's at least an option. A contract like this would slot Jackson well ahead of Kyler's guarantee, while also lifiting him to the $50M per year mark (for bragging purposes). The 4 year term might favor Baltimore, as there have to be obvious concerns about his injury history now and going forward. The issue? It's being widely reported that the Ravens' largest guarantee offer was $133M. Miles apart.

If Lamar is tagged (exclusive or non), the two sides will have until July 15, 2023 to negotiate an extension. After that date, Lamar must play on a 1 year deal for the 2023 season.

The Tag Hostage Situation

Lamar Jackson is tagged, the Ravens refuse to trade him, but also refuse to give in on his fully guaranteed contract request. Jackson doesn't sign the tag and the Ravens are now stuck with a $32M+ placeholder all spring and summer (which could rise into the $40Ms if it's the exclusive tag). Their ability to build the roster, and set themselves up for 2023 (especially at the QB position) are now dwarfed.

The Let Him Walk Option

The Ravens decide acquiring draft picks is too much work, vote against restructuring contracts in order to fit a franchise tag for Jackson on their books, and simply let him walk into free agency on March 15th. There are zero worlds where this happens.

As the 2023 NFL offseason closes in, Spotrac's Positional Breakdown series continues with a deep dive into the financial statuses of each team's running back position, including rostered players, remaining term & guarantees, and stability at the starting & backup roles.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Arizona Cardinals

Status: Hollywood’s Team

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15M

DeAndre Hopkins saw all of his future salary guarantees void per his 2022 PED suspension, but the 30 year old is still averaging 7 grabs and 80 yards per game in Arizona. His $30.75M cap hit currently ranks 2nd among all Wide Receivers, so another salary restructure could be in order for 2023. Was his trade request for real? The Cardinals $8.1M of cap space with an early trade of Hopkins. Also, why is a great wide receiver trying to leave Kyler Murray?

Marquise Brown was acquired at least year’s draft, on the cusp of Hopkins’ PED news. He carries a fully guaranteed $13.4M 5th year option next season, but a multi-year extension is likely - though probably not great timing for the 25 year old. Injury and a dip in production (especially touchdowns) has lowered his valuation into the $17M per year range in our system.

Robbie Anderson was acquired from Carolina at the deadline to fill a few injury voids. It’s a lock that they’ll take the $12M to be freed by moving on next March. Rondale Moore carries a non-guaranteed 2 year $2.9M remaining, while Greg Dortch is slated for restricted free agency.

Atlanta Falcons

Status: Bueller?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M

Drake London will enter year 2, presumably with a new quarterback, and extremely high expectations. His rookie deal contains 3 year, $8M (fully guaranteed) + a 2026 option.

Behind him Olamide Zaccheaus, Damiere Byrd, & Khadarel Hodge are all slated for unrestricted free agency this March, leaving the cupboards pretty bare.

Baltimore Ravens

Status: Seeking Durability (and maybe a true #1)

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $32M

Rashod Bateman battled injury again in 2022, making a healthy 2023 a must for the 23 year old. His rookie deal contains 2 years, $4.1M (fully guaranteed) + a 2025 option.

Devin Duvernay will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.1M. Despite a significant foot injury and mild production in the receiving game for 3 seasons, his value as a return man should put him in contention for an offseason extension.

Demarcus Robinson & Sammy Watkins are both slated to hit free agency.

Buffalo Bills

Status: Status Quo.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$5M

Stefon Diggs locked in $70M on a $96M extension this past April, including $24M next season. His $20M cap hit should be tenable for the Bills, who can free up cap space elsewhere as needed.

Gabriel Davis will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He’s a light extension candidate, though the Bills are probably happy to get another cost-controlled year to evaluate where the next 3-4 years might be headed at the #2/#3 WR positions. It’s a position of need both in free agency & via the draft this offseason. Davis’ future could follow the Christian Kirk path ($18M+, increased role), or the Michael Gallup path ($11.5M, reduced role).

Behind them,Isaiah McKenzie is due a non-guaranteed $2.2M ($2.5M cap hit), 5th rounder Khalil Shakir holds a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M, while Jamison Crowder & Jake Kumerow are unrestricted free agents, 

Carolina Panthers

Status: More like Moore.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$4M

D.J. Moore signed a 3 year extension that included $41.6M fully guaranteed through part of 2024. A full base salary restructure can free up $15.1M of his current $25M cap hit next year.

Behind him, Terrace Marshall holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2.6M, Shi Smith holds a non-guaranteed 2 year $1.95M, & Laviska Shenault holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.65M.

Safe to say there’s a new pass catcher or two to be added alongside a new QB1.

Chicago Bears

Status: Find Fields a Few (great) Friends

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $115M

Acquired at this year’s deadline, Chase Claypool holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.5M through 2023, his contract year. It’s tough to imagine an early extension making sense here.

Darnell Mooney wasn’t holding up to his 2021 breakout even before his season-ending ankle injury. He’ll be entering a contract year in 2023, on a non-guaranteed 1M salary. The Bears probably want to see him re-find that top form before considering a new deal.

2022 3rd rounder Velus Jones will be back in the mix, holding a non-guaranteed 3 year, $3.6M deal, while 4 vets (Byron Pringle, N'Keal Harry, Dante Pettis, & Equanimeous St. Brown) are slated for unrestricted free agency.

Cincinnati Bengals

Status: Searching Couches for Coins 

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $49M

Ja'Marr Chase doesn’t become extension-eligible until after the 2023 season, as his rookie contract holds 2 years, $8.2M fully guaranteed + 2025 option. The 22-year-old is already a $25M+ player in our system.

Tee Higgins does become extension eligible this March, having posted career-highs across the board (even with 1 less game on the books in 2022). How the Bengals decide to handle deals for Burrow, Higgins, & Chase (to name a few) over the next 18 months will be a fascinating watch. He’s a 4 year, $80M player in our system currently.

Tyler Boyd is a roster bubble candidate this March, staring down a $10.3M cap hit that can free up $8.9M if he’s moved on from. UDFA Trenton Irwin has already begun to sneak a few targets away from him this season, so the writing may already be on the wall.

Cleveland Browns

Status: A Redo for Coop?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9M

Amari Cooper holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $40M contract through 2024, and his cap hit jumps to $23.7M next season (6th among WRs). The Browns have roster holes to address, and minimal cap space to work with (even after they restructure Deshaun Watson’s historic cap hit). Cooper probably did enough this year to show he’s still a true WR1 in this league, and at 29 year old, should warrant a restructured contract this offseason. Stefon Diggs’ 4 year, $96M deal in Buffalo is a strong target here.

Behind him, Donovan Peoples-Jones emerged as the clear #2 option, but is entering a contract year himself in 2023 (non-guaranteed $1M). Cleveland likely lets him play it out, banking on a lack of competition for his services come March 2024.

A bevy of non-guaranteed rookie contracts remain intact for 2023 behind them.

Dallas Cowboys

Status: CeeDee Pay Day

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $5.8M

CeeDee Lamb becomes extension eligible this offseason, currently projecting toward a 4 year, $90M deal in our system. With Amari Cooper now off of the books, and Michael Gallup in on a team-friendly price, there should be plenty to go around for a Lamb deal.

Michael Gallup’s $57M extension this past March contains only $27M fully guaranteed, including $11M in 2023. Noah Brown is slated for unrestricted free agency.

Denver Broncos

Status: Potential Shake Up

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13M

Courtland Sutton enters Year 3 of a 5 year, $63M contract, and is fully guaranteed at $14M through 2023. The final 2 years, $27.5M of his deal are non-guaranteed.

Jerry Jeudy enters a potential contract year (Broncos must decide on his 5th year option this May), coming off of his most productive season (67 catches, 972 yards, 6 TDs). Has he done enough to warrant sticking around for a few more seasons? Will Denver listen to trade offers this spring? Tim Patrick should be back in the fold with $5.5M of his $8.5M compensation already fully guaranteed. He’ll have a 1 year, $10M “option” after 2023.

K.J. Hamler might be the odd man out this spring, as the speedster can’t stay healthy, and his expiring contract can free up $1.5M if moved on from.

Detroit Lions

Status: Young & Talented

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $18M

Amon-Ra St. Brown has 196 catches, 2,073 yards, and 11 TDs in his first two NFL seasons. The 4th rounder is a diamond in the rough, and holds 2 years, $2M (non-guaranteed) remaining on his rookie deal. He becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.

Behind him, 1st rounder Jameson Williams started to find his sea legs by the end of 2022, and his 3 years, $6.7M (fully guaranteed) plus a 2026 option will offer great value for the Lions to keep building around.

Josh Reynolds remained productive as a complimentary option and his $3.25M salary ($3.9M cap hit) shouldn’t be a problem. DJ Chark is a pending free agent, projecting to a 3 year, $28M deal in our system.

Green Bay Packers

Status: Young, Talented, but Thin

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$14M

Christian Watson took big steps toward being the next true WR1 in Green Bay, and his 3 year, $4.6M contract (mostly guaranteed) should remain outstanding value. 2022 4th rounder Romeo Doubs looks the part as well, especially at 3 years, $2.9M (non-guaranteed).

Allen Lazard & Randall Cobb are both pending UFAs, so the Packers will (once again) need to address the WR room this March if they want Aaron Rodgers back in the fold.

Houston Texans

Status: Let Go Brandin

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $41M

Brandin Cooks said his goodbye after Week 18, which complicates the 2 years, $35M ($18M guaranteed) remaining on his contract. They may have to eat a bit of that 2023 compensation to get him out the door, but it seems inevitable.

Chris Moore & Phillip Dorsett are pending free agents, while a host of youngsters (Amari Rodgers, Nico Collins to name a few) are on near minimums for the next few seasons. 2022 2nd rounder John Metchie (leukemia) has a chance to be ready for the 2023 season. His rookie deal holds 3 years, $4.2M remaining.

Houston has a lot of building to do before they’re ready to pay for weapons.

Indianapolis Colts

Status: QB First Please

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $20M

Michael Pittman Jr. enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.7M. He has 184 catches and almost 2,000 yards receiving over the past two seasons, though many of his other metrics dipped in 2022. Christian Kirk’s 4 year, $72M deal is a likely baseline here.

Elsewhere Parris Campbell & Ashton Dulin are pending free agents, while 2022 2nd rounder Alec Pierce carries a 3 year, $3.9M deal, $1M guaranteed.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Status: Ridley’s Believe it or Not

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$18M

Christian Kirk’s bigtime free agent deal looks great 9 months later. He’ll earn a fully guaranteed $16M next season with a non-guaranteed 2 years, $33M thereafter. Zay Jones enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $24M contract, and will earn a fully guaranteed $8M next season. While the versatile Jamal Agnew brings a non-guaranteed $4.75M, $5.8M cap hit to the table.

And oh by the way, the Jags acquired Calvin Ridley from the Falcons at the deadline, bringing in his (now) non-guaranteed $11.1M 5th year option salary for 2023. Vet Marvin Jones is slated for free agency this March.

Kansas City Chiefs

Status: Good JuJu?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $14M

After a 78 catch, 933 yard season, JuJu Smith-Schuster is slated for free agency, posting a $14.6M valuation in our system. Marquez Valdes-Scantling enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $30M deal, and most of his $9M compensation for 2023 fully guarantees March 17th. While unlikely, it’s possible for the Chiefs to move on from MVS prior to that date, saving $7M of cap. Mecole Hardman is also set for free agency this March.

Deadline acquisition Kadarius Toney holds a fully guaranteed 2 year, $4.4M, plus a 5th-year option for 2025. While youngster, Skyy Moore carries 3 years, $3.8M remaining on his rookie contract. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Status: Much of the Same

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $21M

Davante Adams enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $140M contract in Vegas, including $26.6M cash, and a friendly $14.7M cap hit. Another $43M of compensation becomes fully guaranteed this March, locking him in through 2024.

Hunter Renfrow enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $34M deal, including $11.5M cash (half guaranteed) on a $13.1M cap hit, while Mack Hollins & Keelan Cole are slated for free agency. There shouldn’t be too much movement here, but a new QB can always change things.

Los Angeles Chargers

Status: Restructure & Repair 

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$19M

Keenan Allen holds 2 years, $42.1M remaining on his deal, including a $3.5M roster bonus due March 19th. A full cash restructure + 3 void years can open up more than $14M of space this March. Mike Williams enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $60M extension, including $12M cash and a $19M cap hit for 2023. A full cash restructure + 3 void years can open up more than $8.7M this March.

Josh Palmer’s rookie contract contains 2 years, $2.4M non-guaranteed remaining, while ??Deandre Carter & Jalen Guyton are slated for free agency.

Los Angeles Rams

Status: Running it Back Healthy

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$2.6M

Cooper Kupp holds 4 year, $79.85M remaining on his deal, and another $35M of it becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th. $15M of his $27.8M cap hit for 2023 can be opened up with a full compensation restructure.

Allen Robinson is fully guaranteed at $15.25M this season, while Van Jefferson enters a contract year on a non-guaranteed $1.3M & Ben Skowronek holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M deal.

It’s tough to expect much movement if at all here.

Miami Dolphins

Status: Back Fill

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$14M

Tyreek Hill enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $140M contract, set to earn $26.1M on a $31.45M cap figure. A full cash restructure + a void year can open up $19.8M of cap space.

Jaylen Waddle’s rookie deal contains 2 years, $7.5M guaranteed plus a 5th year option for 2025. He had an up and down 2022, but still shows plenty of big time player potential - and value.

With $5M of Cedrick Wilson’s 2023 salary fully guaranteed, he’s a lock to be back next season.

Minnesota Vikings

Status: Pay Him or Trade Him

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$13M

Justin Jefferson only has 324 catches, 4,825 yards, and 25 TDs in his first three seasons, which should only translate to about $27M per year if and when the Vikings decide paying him right now is the best business decision. He’s now extension eligible for the first time.

Longtime #2 Adam Thielen probably falls off of this roster, as moving on from the 32 year old can free up $6.4M this March. K.J. Osborn enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M in the final season of his rookie contract.

With Cousins entering a contract year, Dalvin Cook entering the backside, and the defense full of aging vets, is this the right time to be extending weapons? How Minnesota handles the Jefferson situation over the next 24 months will be must watch.

New England Patriots

Status: Swing Big

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $46M

Jakobi Meyers is a pending free agent, projected to bank a 4 year, $50M deal in our system. 

Vet DeVante Parker enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $6.3M, all of which can fall off the books if he’s moved on from.

Underutilized weapon Kendrick Bourne enters a contract year, set to earn $5.5M on a $6.8M cap hit, while Nelson Agholor is slated for free agency this March.

This feels like a roster that needs to find a true #1 - potentially via trade.

New Orleans Saints

Status: Olave & the Field

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$52M

Chris Olave was everything he was drafted to be almost immediately out of the gate, and his progression will only make life easier for New Orleans, who hold him on 3 years, $7.25M plus a 2026 option year.

Michael Thomas’ restructured his deal for one of two reasons: to make 2023 a swan song, or to make it easier for New Orleans to move on this March. We’ll assume the latter, meaning they’ll designate him a Post 6/1 release on March 15th, carry his $13.6M cap hit through June 1st, then take on $12M of dead cap this year, $14M next year, freeing up another $1.7M of space. He’ll be free to sign with a new team in March.

Tre'quan Smith has a $200,000 roster bonus due March 19th. The Saints can free up $1.9M of space by moving on before that. Jarvis Landry & Deonte Harty should both be allowed to hit the open market.

New York Giants

Status: They Bought Out Kenny.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M

The Kenny Golladay experiment shouldn’t be allowed to continue, but there’s a fully guaranteed $4.5M roster bonus sitting in the way right now. If the Giants are willing to pay it out as a parting gift, they can free up $11.2M of cap space by moving on this March.

2022 2nd rounder Wan'dale Robinson will be back in the fold with 3 years, $4.26M, as will Isaiah Hodgins on a minimum salary. But Darius Slayton, Richie James, & Sterling Shepard are all slated for free agency.

New York Jets

Status: Seeking a #2

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $8.1M

Garrett Wilson is a Rookie of the Year candidate after his 74 catch, 1,014 yard inaugural season, and his fully guaranteed 3 year, $7.7M (plus 2026 option) contract should offer the Jets immense value. He won’t become extension eligible until after the 2024 campaign.

Corey Davis enters a contract year, set to earn $10.5M on an $11.1M cap hit. All $10.5M can be free up if the Jets decide to go in a different direction.

Elijah Moore will get his wish with a new OC next season, and his 2 year, $3.3M remaining rookie contract makes him good value to stay, or a solid trade chip as well. The Denzel Mims era in NY is likely over, as the Jets can free up $1.35M with an outright release or trade.

Philadelphia Eagles

Status: Healthy.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $10M

A.J. Brown’s response to being acquired and handed a $100M contract was a career high 88 catches, 1,500 yards, and 11 TDs. He’ll be fully guaranteed through 2024 come March 17th, but even paying this guy $57M for 3 years seems a heck of a deal right now.

Sort of under the radar, DeVonta Smith caught 95 balls for 1,200 yards and 7 TDs in his sophomore campaign. He’s fully guaranteed at 2 years, $6M + a 5th year option in 2025, and becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.

Quez Watkins enters a contract year, and his release can free up $1M of space if needed. Oh and by the way, they hold the #10 pick in April’s draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Status: Value

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$302k

Diontae Johnson signed a 2 year, $36M extension last August, but as the Steelers tend to do - only 2022 was fully guaranteed at signing. He’s set to earn $10.5M in 2023 (including a $2.5M March roster bonus), and a simple restructure of that compensation plus void years can open up over $7.5M of cap space.

George Pickens looks every bit the part as the next great Steelers WR draft pick. Only $1M of his remaining 3 years, $3.9M is guaranteed, and he won’t be extension eligible until after the 2024 season. Value at its finest.

There are 6 other WRs under contract or team control, but with two second round picks this April, don’t count out another young weapon being added into the mix.

San Francisco 49ers

Status: Aiyuk’s Option

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.5M

Deebo Samuel enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M deal, set to earn $11.3M on a very friendly $8.5M cap hit. He’s stable through at least 2024.

Brandon Aiyuk put together a very strong 2022 (78 grabs, 1,015 yards, 8 TDs) at a time when he needed it most. San Francisco will have to decide on his 5th year option this May putting his fully guaranteed 1 year, $2.3M deal on a bit of notice.

Jauan Jennings was an unlikely #3 last season, and with a minimum salary going forward, should remain in the mix even if the Niners add another weapon here.

Seattle Seahawks

Status: Find a Number Three

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $34.5M

D.K. Metcalf enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M contract, set to carry a very tenable $13.72M cap hit next season. Tyler Lockett enters his age 31 season, and his contract holds a pretty clear potential out after 2023, but a $9.7M payout, $16.75M cap hit won’t hurt anyone.

It’s probably time to eat crow on the D'Wayne Eskridge bust pick and move on this March, taking on $844k of dead cap, freeing up $778k.

Marquise Goodwin was productive in a complimentary role, but his (annual) injury history might make it tough to run it back.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Status: Why Don’t You Just Go Without Mike?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$55M

Chris Godwin enters year 2 of a 3 year, $60M deal, and will almost certainly see his $20M base salary restructured (clearing up a max $15.1M of space).

Mike Evans is entering a contract year, and his status is questionable. Are the Bucs in the right position to lock in another (30 year old) weapon right now? Are the draft picks brought back in a trade potentially more valuable to this franchise right now? It’s a 1 year, $14.5M ($1.5M March bonus), with a $23.6M cap hit - and the Bucs would only free up $2.3M of space with an early trade, but it’s still a maybe.

Julio Jones & Breshad Perriman are both likely allowed to test the open market this March.

Tennessee Titans

Status: Burks & a Reboot

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$23M

Injury kept Treylon Burks’ inaugural campaign at bay, but he’ll be asked to take a big step forward over the 3 years, $6M fully guaranteed plus a 5th year option through 2026.

Robert Woods gave Tennessee 17 weeks last year, but it probably wasn’t productive enough to justify $13.75M for 2023. There’s $12M of much needed to cap to open up by moving on here.

There are multiple additions to be made here.

Washington Commanders

Status: Ready for a Consistent QB

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $12.5

Terry McLaurin enters year 2 of a 5 year, $71M contract in Washington with a fully guaranteed $5.4M to boot. $12.5M of his 2024 compensation fully guarantees on March 17th as well.

The Commanders finally got the production they were seeking out of Curtis Samuel in 2022, and he’ll enter a contract year this season, set to earn a non-guaranteed $10.6M. There’s $5.8M of space to be freed up if they want to go in a different direction.

Jahan Dotson is fully guaranteed at 3 years, $6.6M + a 2026 option, while Dyami Brown owns a non-guaranteed 2 years, $2.1M. 

And then there were eight. A quick look at the current and future contract statuses for the 8 quarterbacks set to start in this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round, and few who won’t be available as well.

2022 Average Salary (league rank)

1. Patrick Mahomes, $45M (5th)
2. Josh Allen, $43M (6th)
3. Dak Prescott, $40M (9th)
4. Trevor Lawrence, $9.1M (18th)
5. Joe Burrow, $9M (19th)
6. Trey Lance, $8.5M (21st)
7. Jimmy Garoppolo, $7M (26th)
8. Daniel Jones, $6.4M (29th)
9. Jalen Hurts, $1.5M (55th)
10. Brock Purdy, $934k (77th)

Mahomes was the only Top 5 paid quarterback to make the postseason, with Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, & Deshaun Watson all missing out on the party.

Patrick Mahomes (KC, 27)
9 years, $415M remaining
Mahomes’ 12 year deal doesn’t even really get good until 2023, when his cash payout jumps over $40M ($63.1M across the first three seasons). This deal is fully guaranteed through 2031, or until Mahomes says he wants a new one - whichever happens first.

Josh Allen (BUF, 26)
6 years, $217M remaining
Allen is mostly fully guaranteed through the 2024 season, and will become fully locked in on March 19th. He holds early vesting guarantees through 2025, keeping him safely in the fold for at least 3 more seasons.

Dak Prescott (DAL, 29)
2 years, $65M remaining
Dak’s deal is only guaranteed through 2023, putting him loosely in a contract year next season. But it’s much more likely that the Cowboys restructure his $49.1M cap hit for 2023, then extend their QB1 again after the upcoming season.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX, 23)
2 years, $9.6M + 5th year option remaining
Lawrence will become extension eligible for the first time after 2023, so his much improved play this past season is a huge step in the right direction toward an historic payday. Nick Foles’ $88M contract back in 2019 is the largest total value deal in Jags history.

Joe Burrow (CIN, 26)
1 year, $5.5M + 5th year option remaining
Burrow is now extension eligible, and has already done plenty enough to warrant signing a new deal this spring. He projects to a 6 year, $264M contract in our system right now.

Trey Lance (SF, 22)
2 years, $9M + 5th year option remaining

Lance continues to recover from ankle surgery and as of now, his status for 2023 is TBD. His next 2 contract years are already fully guaranteed, and the Niners will need to decide on his 5th year option by May of 2024. That’s about all we can say at this point.

Daniel Jones (NYG, 25)
Pending Free Agent
Jones is eligible for free agency on March 15th, but it seems impossible now that the Giants will let him get there. A $32M(ish) franchise tag could be on the table next month, but a multi-year extension in the $25-$30M per year range should also be expected.

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF, 31)
Pending Free Agent
Garoppolo can’t be franchise tagged, and with Brock Purdy holding serve for the better part of 6 weeks now, it seems unlikely that an extension will be on the table before March 15th arrives. Jimmy G will test the open market for the first time in his career, and could command 2nd tier starter money ($30M+) to join a new team for 2023 and beyond.

Jalen Hurts (PHI, 24)
1 year, $1.4M
2023 is the final year of Hurts’ rookie deal, but it seems a no-brainer that the Eagles will lock in their QB1 to a massive extension this spring. The MVP candidate projects to a 6 year, $266M contract in our system right now, but it’s hard to imagine he won’t surpass Kyler Murray’s numbers.

Brock Purdy (SF, 23)
3 years, $2.9M remaining
Purdy scored a $77k signing bonus in June, and holds non-guaranteed minimum salaries through the 2025 season. He appears to be one of the most consistent backup options in the league right now - though the system and players around him most certainly help.

Coach, Quarterback, & Cap

Here’s the deal. Justin Herbert has done plenty over the past few seasons to warrant a big time extension, and the likelihood that it happens in the next few weeks is extremely high. The 24 year old values to a 6 year, $255M deal in our system, but pushing north of $45M per year should be realistic.

With that said, it’s not inconceivable that Brandon Staley has coached his last game for the Chargers organization. If a new regime is coming in (be it Sean Payton or another set of eyes), will the (small market owners in a major market) see this as an opportunity to stall on the Herbert money, allowing the player-coach dynamic to settle in a bit before the big pay day is handed out. Denver’s disaster of a 2022 certainly puts this type of scenario in the spotlight.

Herbert holds a guaranteed $4.2M in 2023, then a 5th-year option for 2024 that will certainly be exercised by May. 

From a full roster standpoint, this is a franchise that enters 2023 in the red (estimated -$10M in 2023 cap space with 41 players under contract), with 6 players set to account for at least $10M of cap for next season. A simpler restructure for Joey Bosa can free up at least $15M, while Keenan Allen’s 2023 compensation can open up $14.3M of space with a conversion. Khalil Mackk is entering 2 non-guaranteed years of his contract, and could stand for a rip it up and start over deal to open up cap space, and build in a little stability on his end.

From a Roster Bubble standpoint OG Matt Feiler is a capable body, but LA might opt for the $6.5M of space to get out of the contract this March. TE Gerald Everett showed his value down the stretch, but there’s $4M to be opened up if the Chargers move on there as well.

RELATED
Spotrac's NFL Offseason Series continues with divisional breakdowns of team cap space, notable free agents, extension candidates, and potential roster bubble players.

AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

All-Out Attack

The narrative following the Vikings into and now certainly out of the postseason was something along the lines of: Fraudulent.

While the point differential doesn’t lie (-3 for a division winner), it would be wrong to look at this team and expect them to blow it up anytime soon. The division around them is in hand, their QB is doing more than enough to put them in winning positions, and they have arguably the best offensive weapon in all of football. 

It’s clear and obvious that the defense (specifically the pass rush) simply didn’t have the talent to compete for 60 minutes on a weekly basis. An offseason focused on bulking up the D-Line is to be expected.

Financially speaking, the Vikings sit about $8M in the red right now for 2023. Kirk Cousins is entering a contract year, and Minnesota can either restructure his $30M (freeing up over $23M of cap), or rebuild the contract into an extension (Stafford’s $40M per year deal seems right)

Moving on from WR Adam Thielen opens up at least $6.4M (more if Designated Post 6/1), while an early release of LB Erik Kendricks frees up $9.5M of space.

As for their prized possession, Justin Jefferson is now extension eligible, and while he wasn’t his usual self down the stretch - his numbers to start an NFL career simply defy logic. He’s in line to smash A.J. Brown’s current 4 year, $100M rookie extension mark, with a base valuation of $27M per year in our system.

Pretty Damn Close - BUT

The Tua Tagovailoa medical situation is scary for all parties involved - including the NFL. The Dolphins have already come out and stated that he remains the QB1 plan for 2023 and beyond, and there’s no doubt that a healthy Tua makes this team a legitimate AFC contender - but the what ifs attached to it are downright terrifying.

With that said, we’re simply going to operate as if the Dolphins believe their own words. There’s no reason to assume that a contract extension is coming for Tua, despite his eligibility window now opened up, but this is an organization that can put together a calculated offseason and become a REAL problem.

Their entire running back arsenal is slated for free agency, as are TE Mike Gesicki, and backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Luckily, there are about a dozen starting running backs and viable backup QBs set to hit the open market this March.

DL Christian Wilkins probably made himself a good chunk of change this year (and his ongoing rift with Bills’ QB Josh Allen is only going to further that rivalry). He projects to a $15M+ per year extension in our system entering a contract year.

As a whole, the Dolphins’ project to open 2023 with around -$9M of cap space. But a simple restructure for Tyreek Hill can free up $20M, and another one for Bradley Chubb can open up almost $15M. Miami forfeits their 1st round pick thanks to some ownership collusion (which might be happening as we speak again), so their ability to clog a few holes will come in March, and on Day 2 of the April draft.

There’s an awful lot to like here - if Tua is healthy.

It’s Time

The hot take artist in me wants to push further down the BLOW IT UP boulevard, but the Baltimore Ravens aren’t a blow it up franchise. It’s also not a make the dollars rain organization, or a “let the players run the show” front office - by any means. Lamar Jackson had a real chance to go out there and shut everyone up this season, turning down a standard extension offer for what he believed should have been a top of the market one.

Now it feels like we’re back to square one with this situation, and by that I mean we throw out the fact that he’s a former MVP, we throw out the 45-16 career record, and we simply look at the player and his organization through a telescope over the next 3-4 years. Does anyone who’s truly being honest with themselves see a scenario where these two parties not only make it work, but thrive, grow, and succeed at the highest level together?

The fact of the matter is, Baltimore can still sell extremely high with Lamar on the trade market. They’ll slap an exclusive franchise tag on him in February, but can probably get away with budgeting the $32M non-exclusive tag price on their books while they work out a trade, as the non-exclusive price doesn’t lock until after RFA tender season (early April). What does all of this garbly-goo mean? Jackson won’t be able to negotiate with other teams, and the Ravens will be able to get more than just two first round picks back when they move on from him (the compensation for a player signing an offer sheet on a franchise tag).

It took the Browns three firsts, a third, & two fourths to secure the right to pay Deshaun Watson historic money. It would be foolish to assume that the Ravens won’t be looking for AT LEAST this package come March 15th. Will the Raiders & their Derek Carr situation show interest? Are the Falcons & Panthers ready to mortgage their draft future to see what Lamar can do for them instantaneously? Are the Jets actually the best landing spot for Jackson in their current form?

This might be a lot of words about a situation that never bears out. But it’s becoming increasingly more possible every day. Oh right, money. Lamar has been a $42M player in our system for the better part of 2 seasons now, but his passing productivity dipped quite a bit in 2022. Mathematically he’s a $40M player. On the open market with 6 teams vying for his services? He might just get that $200M fully guaranteed.

On the Edge

Word play. The Seahawks need pass rushers. Even the people in the balcony can read this situation clear as day. Other than that, why wouldn’t this organization try to run this thing back at least for 2023? Geno Smith is the definition of why the franchise tag exists, and should be prepared to play on the $32Mish tender next season.

Seattle enters 2023 with about $47M of cap space, but less than half a roster signed as we speak. Quandre Diggs is a restructure candidate, Noah Fant is a trade candidate, & Uchenna Nwosu is an extension candidate, all which should put the Seahawks in a great place to both draft & sign more than enough ammo to compete again next season.

And by the way - next season is all this organization should be thinking about right now. The future is here.

Internal Combustion

It's tough to blame the Bucs for trying to squeeze every possible minute of TB12 time out as possible. When he un-retired this Spring, it likely changed the mindset of the Bucs front office, who may have been looking to dial certain things back a bit in preparation for the "purge". The about face cost them plenty of cash, and even more flexibility with their cap, as Tampa Bay now stares down a near $44M cap deficit to start the 2023 campaign.

The major focus here (for a lot of reasons) is Brady, who certainly sounded like a player who won't be returning to the organization in his parting press conference. If no new contract is honored, Brady's 2022 deal will automatically void on March 15th, leaving the Bucs with a $35.1M dead cap hit for 2023, the 2nd largest of its kind in history (Matt Ryan, $40.5M).

Elsewhere, another $17.5M of voidable dead cap exists from Lavonte David, Akiem Hicks, Julio Jones, & William Gholston. Will any of these players be back in the fold by the start of the new league year? Are the seemingly QB-less Bucs going to expedite their purge plan and subtract much more than they add or retain this spring? If so, Mike Evans, who enters a contract year in 2023, could be one of the prime candidates to be traded.

With the NFL postseason upon us, a quick look at how players are compensated for each playoff round, broken down by team, based on the agreed upon CBA costs.


Wild Card Weekend
This round stands out from the rest because it contains split pay based on a few factors. If the Wild Card team was a regular season division winner, players will each earn $46,500 (JAX, BUF, CIN, MIN, SF, TB). If the team of the Wild Card game was not a regular season division winner (LAC, MIA, BAL, SEA, NYG, DAL), players from that team will each earn $41,500 - a $5,000 difference.

Additionally, the two teams who secured a #1 seed and were rewarded a bye for the Wild Card round (KC, PHI) will earn the lesser of these two payments, or $41,500 per player.

Divisional Round Winners
All players who are on the active 53-man roster the Sunday immediately preceding the divisional round games will earn $46,500 this year, up $4,000 from last season’s postseason.

Conference Championship Winners
All players who are on the active 53-man roster the Sunday immediately preceding the conference championship games will earn $69,000, up $4,000 from last year.

Super Bowl Payouts
Players from the winning Super Bowl team will cash an extra $157,000 each, while those from the losing team will earn $82,000 for their efforts.

Potential AFC Team Playoff Earnings (per player)

Potential NFC Team Playoff Earnings (per player)

The arbitration filing deadline for MLB came and went Friday, with 33 players still in limbo with their respective organizations. Of those who signed, Juan Soto (SD, OF) led the way with a $23M salary for the upcoming season, while 11 others were at or above the $10M mark.

Shohei Ohtani (LAA, SP/DH): $30M (3/3)
Juan Soto (SD, OF): $23M (3/3)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR, 1B): $14.5M (2/4)
Pete Alonso (NYM, 1B): $14.5M (2/3)
Julio Urias (LAD, SP): $14.25M (4/4)
Josh Hader (SD, RP): $14.1M (4/4)
Rhys Hoskins (PHI, 1B): $12M (3/3)
Ian Happ (CHC, OF): $10.85M (3/3)
Brandon Woodruff (MIL, SP): $10.8M (3/3)
Lucas Giolito (CWS, SP): $10.4M (3/3)
Shane Bieber (CLE, SP): $10.01M (2/3)
Jordan Montgomery STL, SP): $10M (4/4)
(arbitration phase)

Here’s a complete list of the 33 players that couldn’t agree on terms, including the number they’ve filed out versus the one the team has countered with.

• Josh Rojas (ARZ, 3B) $2.9M/$2.575MM
• Max Fried (ATL, SP):: $15M/$13.5M
• Austin Voth (BAL, SP): $2M/$1.7M
• Kyle Tucker (HOU, OF): $7.5M/$5M
• Cristian Javier (HOU, SP): $3.5M/$3M
• Brady Singer (KC, SP): $3.325M/$2.95M
• Luis Rengifo (LAA, SS): $2.3M/$2M
• Hunter Renfroe (LAA, OF): $11.9M/$11.25M
• Giovanny Urshela (LAA, SS): $10M/$8.4M
• Anthony Gonsolin (LAD, SP): $3.4M/$3M
• Jesus Luzardo (MIA, SP): $2.45M/$2.1M
• Jon Berti (MIA, 2B): $2.3M/$1.9M
• Corbin Burnes (MIL, SP): $10.75M/$10.1M
• Luis Arraez (MIN, 1B): $6.1M/$5M
• Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B): $7.75M/$6.25M
• Gleyber Torres (NYY, SS): $10.2M/$9.7M
• Seranthony Dominguez (PHI, RP): $2.9M/$2.1M
• Jose Alvarado (PHI, RP): $3.7M/$3.2M
• Ji-Man Choi (PIT, 1B): $5.4M/$4.65M
• Diego Castillo (SEA, RP): $3.225M/$2.95M
• Dylan Moore (SEA, 2B): $2.25M/$1.9M
• Teoscar Hernandez (SEA, OF): $16M/$14M
• Genesis Cabrera (STL, RP): $1.15M/$950k
• Ryan Helsley (STL, RP): $3M/$2.15M
• Colin Poche (TB, RP): $1.3M/$1.175M
• Yandy Diaz (TB, 3B): $6.3M/$5.55M
• Jason Adam (TB, RP): $1.775M/$1.55M
• Jeffrey Springs (TB, SP): $3.55M/$2.7M
• Harold Ramirez (TB, OF): $2.2M/$1.9M
• Ryan Thompson (TB, RP): $1.2M/$1M
• Pete Fairbanks (TB, RP): $1.9M/$1.5M
• Bo Bichette (TOR, SS): $7.5M/$5M
• Victor Robles (WAS, OF) $2.6M/$2.3M

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.



SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Denver Broncos

2023 Cap Space: $12M
Rostered Players: 59
Draft Pick: #5 (traded to SEA), TBD (from SF)

Sources close to me confirm that Year 1 of the Russell Wilson experiment has failed. Out goes the coaching staff, out go a few current players, but this will be a systematic change much more than a roster construction change for the next few seasons.

Notable Free Agents

• Dalton Risner (G, 27)
• Latavius Murray (RB, 32)
• Kareem Jackson (S, 34)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Jerry Jeudy (WR, 23)
Jeudy put together his best statistical season (67 catches, 972 yards, 6 TDs) just in time to become extension eligible for the first time in his career. His rookie deal contains 1 year, $2.6M (guaranteed) plus an option for 2024. He projects to a 4 year, $80M deal in our system right now.

Bubble Candidate

Ronald Darby (CB, 29)
Enters a contract year in 2023, set to carry a $13M cap hit. The Broncos can free up $10M by moving on at any point of the offseason.

Graham Glasgow (OL, 30)
He’s a serviceable and versatile offensive lineman, but with $11M of his $14M cap hit available to be cleared, he’ll sit on the bubble until further notice.

K.J. Hamler (WR, 23)
He’s hit the IR each of this first three seasons, and the Broncos can free up $1.5M of his $2.2M cap hit this offseason.

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Cap Space: $14M
Rostered Players: 35
Draft Pick: TBD

The Chiefs sit atop the AFC yet again, but that doesn’t exclude them from some serious offseason questions around the corner at the left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback positions to name a few.

Notable Free Agents

• Orlando Brown Jr. (LT, 26)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, 26)
• Mecole Hardman (WR, 24)
• Jerick McKinnon (RB, 30)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Chris Jones (DT, 29)
Jones enters a contract year, having done Jones things once again in 2022, set to carry a $28.2M cap hit for the 2023 season. The Chiefs want to lower that hit (and presumably keep him for a few more seasons). Just based on math, Jones projects to a 4 year, $120M extension in our system.

L'Jarius Sneed (CB, 25)
The 2020 4th rounder really established himself in 2022, and enters a contract year for 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He values toward a 4 year, $32M contract in our system right now.

Bubble Candidate

Frank Clark (DE, 29)
Clark restructured before the 2022 year to stick around, and he played well enough to at least consider doing that again. But with a $31M cap hit versus $9M of dead cap to boot, we’ll error on the side of $22M in savings for now.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, 23)
CEH carries a fully guaranteed $2M in 2023 (his 5th year option is certain to be declined this May), which should be plenty tradable to a team in need. KC can free up $1.5M by trading him at any point in time this offseason.

Las Vegas Raiders

2023 Cap Space: $20M
Rostered Players: 45
Draft Pick: #7

The Derek Carr era is over, despite a core group of contracts signed in the past 18 months (including his). This team is too pot invested to wait for a young QB to grow into it, do they have bigger (older) plans?

Notable Free Agents

• Josh Jacobs (RB, 24)
• Jermaine Eluemunor (RT, 28)
• Foster Moreau (TE, 25)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Foster Moreau (TE, 25)
Moreau has been a stable TE2 for this Raiders team, but with Darren Waller’s inconsistency and health issues, LV should be ready to treat him as more than that (and Waller’s replacement for 2024).

Bubble Candidate

Derek Carr (QB, 31)
Carr has already said his goodbyes, so now it’s a matter of trade or release. If it’s release, LV will do so prior to $40.4M more locking in on February 15th ($5.626M of dead cap, $29.25M saved). If they find a trade partner (that Carr agrees to), the numbers will look the same, but the trade won’t process until at least March 15th.

Chandler Jones (DE, 32)
Jones holds a fully guaranteed $17M through 2023, so this is a trade situation only - but it’s not inconceivable. A Pre March 17th trade leaves behind $9.6M of dead cap, freeing up $9.8M of space. It’s possible there’s a team looking to take a 1 year, $17M flier on him.

Los Angeles Chargers

2023 Cap Space: -$10M
Rostered Players: 41
Draft Pick: TBD

Before we get to adjustments on the roster, are we positive the coaching staff is safe for 2023? Once that question is answered, Justin Herbert will need $150M guaranteed.

Notable Free Agents

• Drue Tranquill (LB, 27)
• Kyle Van Noy (LB, 31)
• Bryce Callahan (CB, 31)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Justin Herbert (QB, 24)
A big playoff run could sweeten this pot even more, but Herbert is now extension eligible for the first time, and seems a slam dunk to lock in a $40M + deal this spring. He projects to a 6 year, $255M extension in our system.

Khalil Mack (OLB, 31)
Mack holds a 2 year, $46.15M non-guaranteed contract right now (which is pretty good coin for him at this stage), but the cap hits ($27.4M, $27.75M) scream restructure. The two sides can turn this into a 4-5 year deal with more flexibility for all.

Bubble Candidate

Gerald Everett (TE, 28)
Everett is a nice fit for this offense, and his $8M cap hit for 2023 isn’t too daunting, but with $4M to be freed up, the Chargers might take a chance on bringing him back cheaper.