Keith SmithOctober 07, 2022

When Pascal Siakam inked a rookie scale extension with the Toronto Raptors for the maximum over four years, some were a little unsure if he’d deliver on that deal. Two years in, Siakam has delivered in spades.

Immediately after signing the extension, Siakam turned his first All-NBA season during the 2019-20 season. Two years later, Siakam was named All-NBA again in 2021-22.

Now, the Raptors star is poised to cash in again on his next deal.

Unlike Jaylen Brown, who we covered in our most recent entry of the Next Contract Series, Siakam has already proven he can meet the criteria for a so-called “super max” extension. But we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves.

First, let’s understand what Siakam has left on his current deal with Toronto:

  • 2022-23: $35,448,672
  • 2023-24: $37,893,408

Both years are fully guaranteed with no options for Siakam.

The 6-foot-9 forward’s current four-year extension was a good example of player and team meeting the middle on a deal. Toronto bet Siakam would live up to max money, but didn’t extend all the way to the five-year max. In part, to pay the team’s faith back, Siakam didn’t insist upon a player option on Year 4 of the deal.

Now, the sixth-year player is extension eligible again. But it’s not quite as cut-and-dried as handing Siakam another max deal.

 

The Designated Veteran Extension

Because Siakam already has two All-NBA nods on his resume, he may be best served to wait until after this current season before inking a new deal. Due to only having six years of service, Siakam isn’t eligible yet to sign the “super max” extension for 35% of the salary cap. However, should he repeat his All-NBA performance season (or if he wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year), Siakam could sign the Designated Veteran Extension next offseason.

Here's what that projected extension would look like for Siakam:

  • 2024-25: $50,050,000
  • 2025-26: $54,054,000
  • 2026-27: $58,058,000
  • 2027-28: $62,062,000
  • 2028-29: $66,066,000
  • Total: Five years, $290,290,000

That’s 35% of the $143 million projected cap for 2024-25 with 8% raises on subsequent seasons. Given his status as a then three-time All-NBA player, it’s likely Siakam would negotiate a player option on the final season, as well as a maximum 15% trade bonus.

It’s also important to note that this extension is only available to Siakam from the Raptors. If he was traded, he would not be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension (or Designated Veteran Contract, which we’ll cover next!). These deals are only available to players who re-sign with their original team, or with a team that acquired them during the first four years of their career.

Because Siakam would have just one year left on his current deal, he’d be able to add five years via extension. If you add the nearly $38 million he’s already owed on the final year of his current deal, Siakam would be locked in for nearly $330 million for a six-year period.

The kicker? Siakam has to wait and bet on himself to have another big year in this coming season.

 

The Designated Veteran Contract

Let’s say Siakam doesn’t meet the criteria for the Designated Veteran Extension, but he still believes he’s an All-NBA guy. He could forego an extension entirely and play out his current deal. Then, if Siakam was named All-NBA for the 2023-24 season (or if he won MVP or Defensive Player of the Year), he’d be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Contract in the summer of 2024.

In that case, the deal looks exactly the same as above. 35% of the projected $143 million cap, along with 8% raises. Once again, Siakam should be in position to demand a player option and a 15% trade bonus as well.

Just like with the Designated Veteran Extension, this deal is only available to Siakam from the Raptors.

There is one other fun wrinkle. Because this would be a new contract, as opposed to an extension, Siakam and Toronto could agree to add a “no trade clause” to this deal. Because Siakam would have eight years of service upon signing, and four years with the Raptors, he’s eligible for the fairly rare negotiated no trade clause.

Last note: Upon signing either a Designated Veteran Extension or Designated Veteran Contract, Siakam would be ineligible to be traded for one year.

 

The Veteran Extension

If Pascal Siakam wanted to get an extension done today, he could do that. As of October 1, he was eligible to sign the standard Veteran Extension. That contract would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $46,332,000
  • 2026-27: $49,764,000
  • Total: Three years, $138,996,000

In a standard Veteran Extension, a player is allowed to sign for 120% of the prior year’s salary, with a cap of their own maximum salary for that season. For Siakam, that limits him to a projected first-year salary of $42,900,000, because that is 30% of the projected $143 million cap for the 2024-25 season.

In addition, at the moment, Siakam would only be able to add three seasons to his deal, because he’s still got two seasons left on his current contract. The deadline for signing this three-year extension is October 17.

If Siakam didn’t make All-NBA this coming season, he could choose to ink a four-year Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023. That would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $46,332,000
  • 2026-27: $49,764,000
  • 2027-28: $53,196,000
  • Total: Four years, $192,192,000

It’s the same first three years as above, but because Siakam would only have one year left on his current deal next summer, he could add four new years via extension.

 

Re-signing with Toronto as a free agent in 2024

Let’s say Siakam doesn’t sign any form of extension and he doesn’t qualify for the Designated Veteran Contract. He can still re-sign with the Raptors as an unrestricted free agent in 2024. He’d be eligible for a five-year contract then, but at 30% of the salary cap.

That deal would like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $46,332,000
  • 2026-27: $49,764,000
  • 2027-28: $53,196,000
  • 2028-29: $56,628,000
  • Total: Five years, $248,820,000

That’s 30% of the cap, with 8% raises. Like with the other deals, Siakam should be in position to negotiate a player option on the final year, a 15% trade bonus and possibly a no trade clause. The NTC would be available, because this would again be a new contract vs an extension.

 

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

If Siakam wanted to leave Toronto, or the Raptors didn’t want to re-sign him, he’d be eligible for to sign a four-year deal with another team. That max deal projects to look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $45,045,000
  • 2026-27: $47,190,000
  • 2027-28: $49,335,000
  • Total: Four years, $184,470,000

That deal starts at the same 30% of the projected $143 million cap. However, this deal is limited to 5% raises and only four years.

When comparing it to the standard four-year Veteran Extension, Siakam would be giving up over $7.7 million over the life of the deal. And, he’d be giving up significant money compared to straight re-signing with the Raptors, if you factor in the potential fifth year of a deal.

 

Summary

It’s unlikely Pascal Siakam will sign a standard Veteran Extension before the October 17 deadline. As someone who has made All-NBA in two of the last three seasons, it’s best for Siakam to bet on himself to make All-NBA in either 2023 or 2024. In that case, the versatile forward would be eligible for the super max deal.

If we compare the five-year Designated Veteran Extension or Designated Veteran Contract to straight re-signing with the Raptors, it’s a difference of roughly $41.5 million. That’s enough of a difference to bet on yourself, especially with Siakam’s previous All-NBA selections.

By delaying to signing a Designated Veteran Contract in the summer of 2024 vs a Designated Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023, Siakam would be able to add a no trade clause into his deal. However, it’s unlikely he’d pass up locking in the guaranteed money as soon as he can, even if it’s at the expense of adding a no trade clause. It’s simply to risky. Instead, Siakam can get a 15% trade bonus, should the Raptors want to trade their star.

There are two other things to factor in for Siakam, as well as other players, on his level: The new CBA and the looming cap spike. The NBA is going to have a new CBA, likely as soon as next season. Both the NBA and NBPA have opt-out that they can exercise when this season ends.

While the cap continues to go up, it’s expected to spike again, possibly as soon as 2025 free agency. That’s the year that the new television contracts will kick in. Most teams are preparing for a cap during the 2025-26 league year to be north of $150 million and possibly as high as $160-$165 million.

Both the new CBA (and potential new contract and extension rules) and the cap spike (which will raise new contracts exponentially), will have an impact on what players are willing to sign for over the course of the next year. We may see some players, especially All-NBA-level ones like Pascal Siakam take shorter deals, or eschew extensions entirely, in hopes of cashing in on a bigger payday in a whole new cap environment.

Keith SmithSeptember 09, 2022

The 2022-23 NBA season hasn’t started yet, but already teams are positioning themselves for the 2023 offseason. While the 2022 free agent class was considered to be weak in terms of star power, the 2023 class is setting up to be a good one.

In addition to some All-Star level players looking like they’ll be available, multiple teams are positioned to have cap space this upcoming offseason. Between 10 and 13 teams project to have cap space. On the high end, teams like the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers project to have between $50 and $70 million to spend. Other teams are down in the range of $20 million. In total, Spotrac projects there to be well over $450 million to spend in free agency.

With that much spending power potentially available, here’s who teams may be spending that cap space on. This list is current before any veteran extensions are signed. Extensions have become more and more popular in recent years, which has taken a lot of talent off the free agent board before free agency even opens. In other words: don’t be surprised if a handful of the names on this list never make it to 2023 free agency.

With all that in mind, here are the Top 50 potential 2023 free agents:

  1. James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers – unrestricted free agent – player option
  2. Kyrie Irving – Brooklyn Nets – unrestricted free agent
  3. Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors – unrestricted free agent – player option
  4. Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks – unrestricted free agent – player option
  5. Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors – unrestricted free agent – player option
  6. Andrew Wiggins – Golden State Warriors – unrestricted free agent
  7. Tyler Herro – Miami Heat – restricted free agent
  8. Kristaps Porzingis – Washington Wizards – unrestricted free agent – player option
  9. Jordan Poole – Golden State Warriors – restricted free agent
  10. Myles Turner – Indiana Pacers – unrestricted free agent
  11. Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls – unrestricted free agent
  12. Bogdan Bogdanovic – Atlanta Hawks – unrestricted free agent – player option
  13. Kevin Porter Jr. – Houston Rockets – restricted free agent
  14. D’Angelo Russell – Minnesota Timberwolves – unrestricted free agent
  15. Bojan Bogdanovic – Utah Jazz – unrestricted free agent
  16. Harrison Barnes – Sacramento Kings – unrestricted free agent
  17. Jerami Grant – Portland Trail Blazers – unrestricted free agent
  18. Al Horford – Boston Celtics – unrestricted free agent
  19. Christian Wood – Dallas Mavericks – unrestricted free agent
  20. Kyle Kuzma – Washington Wizards – unrestricted free agent – player option
  21. Herb Jones – New Orleans Pelicans – restricted free agent – team option
  22. Will Barton – Washington Wizards – unrestricted free agent
  23. Jakob Poeltl – San Antonio Spurs – unrestricted free agent
  24. Dillon Brooks – Memphis Grizzlies – unrestricted free agent
  25. Kevin Love – Cleveland Cavaliers – unrestricted free agent
  26. Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks – unrestricted free agent
  27. Bruce Brown Jr. – Denver Nuggets – unrestricted free agent – player option
  28. De’Andre Hunter – Atlanta Hawks – restricted free agent
  29. Josh Hart – Portland Trail Blazers – unrestricted free agent – player option
  30. Gary Trent Jr. – Toronto Raptors – unrestricted free agent – player option
  31. Reggie Jackson – LA Clippers – unrestricted free agent
  32. Patrick Beverley – Los Angeles Lakers – unrestricted free agent
  33. P.J. Washington – Charlotte Hornets – restricted free agent
  34. Steven Adams – Memphis Grizzlies – unrestricted free agent
  35. Cameron Johnson – Phoenix Suns – restricted free agent
  36. Seth Curry – Brooklyn Nets – unrestricted free agent
  37. Caris LeVert – Cleveland Cavaliers – unrestricted free agent
  38. Jae Crowder – Phoenix Suns – unrestricted free agent
  39. Malik Beasley – Utah Jazz– unrestricted free agent – team option
  40. Nassir Little – Portland Trail Blazers – restricted free agent
  41. Mason Plumlee – Charlotte Hornets – unrestricted free agent
  42. Max Strus – Miami Heat – unrestricted free agent
  43. Matisse Thybulle – Philadelphia 76ers – restricted free agent
  44. Russell Westbrook – Los Angeles Lakers – unrestricted free agent
  45. Larry Nance Jr. – New Orleans Pelicans – unrestricted free agent
  46. Grant Williams – Boston Celtics – restricted free agent
  47. Otto Porter Jr. – Toronto Raptors – unrestricted free agent – player option
  48. Kelly Oubre Jr. – Charlotte Hornets – unrestricted free agent
  49. Brandon Clarke – Memphis Grizzlies – restricted free agent
  50. Josh Richardson – San Antonio Spurs – unrestricted free agent

 

Related:

2023 NBA Free Agent Tracker

Keith SmithSeptember 02, 2022

Danny Ainge took over running the Boston Celtics front office on May 9, 2003. It took Ainge about a month-and-half to make his first trade. He hasn’t stopped making trades since.

Ainge’s persistence in making trades earned him the moniker “Trader Danny” while in Boston. When he joined the Utah Jazz, Ainge’s role was initially as an advisor. Anyone who has followed Ainge knew that would only last for so long. He’s not the type to sit on the sidelines. It’s not in his nature.

It took a bit, but Ainge is now bringing the same tried-and-true approach to Utah that he used in Boston. Ainge believes that if you aren’t a title contender, you should be rebuilding and stockpiling assets to aid in becoming a title contender. There’s little gray in his basketball world. It’s best to be really good. But it’s better to be bad than it is to be average or just sort of good.

It’s important to remember Ainge famously told Red Auerbach in the 1990s that the Celtics should trade away Larry Bird and Kevin McHale. Ainge’s thinking was Boston was stuck as a good team, but not a real contender and that the veterans were starting to deteriorate.

Ainge’s thought back when he was a player has stayed with him as a front office executive. You want to build a contender, but more importantly, a sustainable contender. That involves churning the roster from time to time, and occasionally, it necessitates a full teardown.

In the middle of his first season running the Celtics in 2003-04, Ainge traded Antoine Walker and Tony Delk in a then controversial deal that brought Raef LaFrentz and a 2004 first round pick to Boston. By that trade deadline, Ainge had shipped off a couple more veterans for an additional 2004 first round pick.

That summer, with his team ready for a rebuild around a still-young Paul Pierce, Ainge hired Doc Rivers. Rivers was then still seen as a young, but somewhat unproven head coach. He’d had four good, but never great seasons with the Orlando Magic before getting fired early in Year 5.

The Celtics then used three first round picks in the 2004 NBA Draft to select Al Jefferson, Delonte West and Tony Allen. The plan was that those three would pair with Pierce to form the nucleus of the Celtics next contender. If not, Ainge would keep moving vets to find the right guys to help Boston raise another banner.

Later that summer, Ainge would add Gary Payton to run the Celtics offense. By the 2005 trade deadline, Boston was playing pretty well. That spurred Ainge to trade a future Boston first round pick in a deal to bring back old friend Antoine Walker.

Let’s pause there for a minute.

There’s this impression of Ainge that he’s like a venture capitalist, corporate raider type that comes in, strips things down and then sells when he’s finally gotten things back into the black on the balance sheet.

That’s not really true.

Yes, it’s fair to say Ainge hoards his draft picks. He does do that…to an extent. But Ainge has also repeatedly traded picks when he’s found the right deal. Sure, he’s “close” to making trades a lot, but part of that comes from Ainge’s willingness to be candid with the media about trade talks. He doesn’t guard trade talks like state secrets that should never get out. He’s more open about what happens during the trade process than most of his peers.

The point is, Ainge is a master of the teardown. He’ll collect assets left and right. But he’s not unwilling to flip those assets to build his teams back up.

Back to the break-down and build-up process Ainge has undertaken over the years.

That 2004-05 Celtics team fell short and lost in the first round. As is his nature, Ainge didn’t sit still. Walker’s second go-around in Boston was a short one. That summer Walker was sent to the Miami Heat as a part of the largest trade in NBA history: a five-team, 13-player, two-pick deal.

By January, Ainge was back at it again. He swung a seven-player deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves where Boston acquired another first round pick. Ainge had begun his second teardown in Boston.

The summer of 2006 saw moves towards a rebuild. On a busy 2006 Draft night, Ainge picked up Rajon Rondo’s draft rights and swapped LaFrentz and a pick for Theo Ratliff (really his contract) and Sebastian Telfair.

All that happened while Ainge held tight with Paul Piece. The 2006-07 season was a mess for the Celtics. Pierce got injured, the kids were kids and Boston lost. A lot. But everyone accepted all the losing because Boston had the second-most ping pong balls in the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery. Boston felt confident they’d come away with Greg Oden or Kevin Durant to put next to Pierce and the kids.

Then disaster struck.

The Portland Trail Blazers, Seattle SuperSonics and Atlanta Hawks all jumped up in the draft and Boston fell from the second pick to the fifth pick in the 2007 NBA Draft.

But Ainge was ready. He had kids and some extra picks and he started building back up again. This time around, he hit on every move.

At the 2007 NBA Draft, Boston swapped that fifth pick, former first rounder Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak for Ray Allen and 2007 second rounder Glen “Big Baby” Davis. That set the stage for the big move a month later.

Ainge competed the transformation by trading former first rounders Al Jefferson and Gerald Green along with two 2009 first round picks (one of them going back home), Ratliff’s contract and a couple of vets for Kevin Garnett.

A year later, Boston had raised Banner 17.

If you needed proof Ainge could tear a team down and then push his assets in to build back up, that was it. If you were still a skeptic, he did it again a few years later.

After a five-year run of title contention, Ainge harkened back to that 1990s conversation with Red Auerbach. Instead of Larry Bird and Kevin McHale, Ainge had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as his aging vets. He knew Boston had already dragged an extra year or two of their best basketball out of the veteran duo.

Ainge didn’t hesitate and he pulled the trigger on another teardown. Being just sort of good wasn’t good enough.

At the 2013 NBA Draft, Ainge agreed to dealing Pierce and Garnett, along with Jason Terry and a 2017 first round pick to the Brooklyn Nets for a package of veteran players and three first-round picks and a pick swap.

Before that deal, Ainge agreed to let Doc Rivers go to the LA Clippers in exchange for the Clips’ 2015 first rounder. At the 2013 Draft, Ainge traded up a few picks to select Kelly Olynyk.

During the moratorium period between the draft and making the Brooklyn trade official, Ainge pulled off a true surprise by hiring Brad Stevens. For a second time, Ainge was handing his sideline to a young, unproven head coach, just as a rebuild was starting.

Oh, and Ainge wasn’t done trading either. He’d swing three more trades, all of which brought Boston young players and/or draft picks.

During the 2014-15 season, Ainge amped up his trading to a whole new level. The Celtics facility might as well have had a revolving door, as player came and went at a staggering pace.

Ainge picked up Tyler Zeller and a first round pick from the Cleveland Cavaliers to help them clear cap space go bring LeBron James home.

Ainge then helped Cleveland clear some space by eating a handful of contracts to pick up two future second round picks. That deal happened right as training camp was starting, but Ainge was far from done.

On the eve of the season, Ainge swapped Joel Anthony for Will Bynum to help the Detroit Piston clear some salary, while giving Boston a guard. But Ainge still wasn’t done.

In the month-long period from January 18, 2015 through the trade deadline on February 19, 2015, Ainge swung a whopping six trades. This including acquiring and re-trading all of Jameer Nelson, Brandan Wright and Austin Rivers during that month-long span.

But you know what else happened? The Celtics were playing better than expected. This thrown-together, wear-a-nametag group was winning enough to hang around the playoff picture.

That made Ainge’s last deal of the period a masterstroke. In a three-team deal with the Pistons (remember the favor from the eve of the season?) and the Phoenix Suns, Ainge acquired Isaiah Thomas, Gigi Datome and Jonas Jerebko, and somehow another first round pick.

The Celtics made the playoffs in 2015 and haven’t missed out on the postseason since.

It was in the seasons immediately following that one where Ainge developed the reputation as a pick hoarder. He steadfastly refused to include the Brooklyn picks that eventually became Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum (after a trade with the Philadelphia 76ers) in deals for players like Jimmy Butler and Paul George. It turns out, he was right to keep those picks.

But what gets overlooked is Ainge was prioritizing development of Stevens’ young roster, along with preserving cap space. In back-to-back summers, notoriously not-a-free-agent-destination Boston landed Al Horford and Gordon Hayward in free agency. And then Ainge made a deal that should have punted the “he won’t trade picks to buy vets” reputation into the sun.

In August of 2017, Ainge traded the beloved, but deteriorating Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder (who was going to be replaced by the combination of Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and newly signed Gordon Hayward) and the last of his precious Nets picks for Kyrie Irving.

Ainge had built a title contender by trading veterans and picks for a second time. Or so we thought.

That Celtics group lead by Irving and Hayward never came together. Injuries and unhappiness sunk that team before they even got started. So, Ainge did what he does and he pivoted again.

Faced with losing Irving and Horford in the same summer, Ainge worked a double sign-and-trade to bring in Kemba Walker for Terry Rozier. Walker would team with the rapidly emerging Brown and Tatum, and a healthy Hayward to get Boston to the Eastern Conference Finals. Unfortunately, Hayward got hurt again and Walker was never the same after a midseason knee injury.

If all the other moves of his Boston tenure weren’t enough to shed this idea that Ainge could build a team back up and will trade picks, his last few moves sacrificed draft capital just to give Boston a chance at making moves down the line. He worked a sign-and-trade to help Hayward join the Charlotte Hornets by giving up two second round picks to just to create a trade exception. Then he gave up more draft picks to bring Evan Fournier in via that trade exception.

Then Ainge retired and left Boston. 18 seasons, 15 playoff appearances. Three different teardowns and rebuilds. All resulting in teams that ranged from good to great.

Now, Ainge looks to be repeating the process in Utah. Only this time he’s starting from a place of better leverage.

Instead of trading aging veterans for nice collection of draft picks, Ainge traded two in-their-primes All-Stars for a haul of future drafts picks and young players unlike any we’ve seen before.

In two moves, Ainge has added five unprotected first round draft picks from the Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers. He’s also picked up lightly-protected first round pick and three years of unprotected pick swaps.

If you add in 2023 first rounders Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler, that’s a total of 11 additional first round picks the Jazz now largely have control of through 2029.

Just like he did with the Celtics, trading the stars is only the start. Ainge will now begin the process of moving veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gay and Malik Beasley. He’s already flipped Patrick Beverley, who came over in the Gobert deal, to take a flyer on talented youngster Talen Horton-Tucker.

It’s a good bet that Ainge will turn at least a couple of those players into another first round pick or two. And he’ll probably take on some veterans in the process and flip them in subsequent trades. Helpful advice: If you’re traded to the Jazz in the next couple of years, rent instead of buying. You might not be there long.

It’s a tried-and-true process that has worked for Ainge three times before. But it’s not just about tearing a roster down to the studs and collecting assets. That’s just step one. Step two is hiring a young, but talented head coach. Step three is using those assets to build the team back up for his handpicked coach.

Danny Ainge can break a team down, identify a coach and then build that team back up. He’s already done it. Three different times in Boston, in fact.

And now he’s doing it again in Utah. He’s torn the team down and hired Will Hardy as the head coach. The building up process will eventually come. Take a breath, give it a little time and enjoy watching a team-building genius do what he does best.

Keith SmithSeptember 01, 2022

The NBA offseason is basically behind us. Rosters are largely finished, despite the Utah Jazz still talking trades for Donovan Mitchell and most of the vets on their roster.

Teams are mostly adding camp players and angling for Affiliate Player rights to get them to their G League teams. A few notable free agents remain unsigned, but the vast majority of potential rotation players have been signed.

Now, it’s time to start looking towards the start of the 2022-23 season. With training camps opening in approximately one month, let’s start by looking back at what changes the 2022 offseason brought.

The Northwest Division is in transition. The Denver Nuggets are title contenders. The Minnesota Timberwolves made a big bet that going big will pay off big. The Portland Trail Blazers should be healthier and should compete for a playoff spot. The Oklahoma City Thunder are still working their back after kicking off a full-scale rebuild. And then there the Jazz. After years of being good, but never quite good enough, Utah appears poised to kick off a complete teardown and restart.

 

Denver Nuggets

Additions: Christian Braun (2022 NBA Draft), Bruce Brown Jr. (free agency), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (trade), DeAndre Jordan (free agency), Ish Smith (trade), Peyton Watson (2022 NBA Draft), Collin Gillespie (Two-Way), Jack White (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Will Barton (Wizards via trade), Facundo Campazzo (unrestricted free agent), DeMarcus Cousins (unrestricted free agent), Bryn Forbes (Timberwolves via free agency), JaMychal Green (Thunder via trade (since waived), Monte Morris (Wizards via trade), Austin Rivers (Timberwolves via free agency), Markus Howard (Spain via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $9.1 million Traded Player Exception, $3.5 million Traded Player Exception

Analysis: The Nuggets are betting on the combination of better health and the development of young players to take the franchise to new heights. Denver is starting the year with perhaps the best team they’ve ever had, in addition to the most expectations they’ve had too.

The Nuggets big move was to swap mainstays Will Barton and Monte Morris to the Wizards for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith. Denver hopes that adding Caldwell-Pope, along with another free agent addition, will help clean up the team’s leaky perimeter defense. Caldwell-Pope is also excellent playing off the ball, so he should fit in nicely in an offense built around Nikola Jokic’s passing skills.

The free agent addition to help with the above was Bruce Brown. Brown is rugged defender who can hold his own 1-3. He’s also a terrific cutter and small-ball screen-and-roll man. If his 40% three-point shooting from last year, Brown will be a perfect addition for Denver.

While not truly “additions”, the Nuggets will be thrilled to have Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back in the fold. Murray missed the entire season, while Porter missed the vast majority of it. Both will be an immediate boon to the team’s offense. Their returns will take a lot of the pressure off Jokic to create so many of the scoring opportunities.

As for the young players, Denver will be counting on Bones Hyland and Zeke Nnaji to take on bigger roles this season. Both seem capable and ready. To open the year, Hyland may play the bigger role as Murray’s backup. The Nuggets seem likely to be cautious with Murray, at least to open the season. Nnaji will team with veteran Jeff Green to handle the backup big minutes. If Nnaji can handle 15-20 minutes per game, it will allow Denver to keep Jokic fresh throughout the year.

The Nuggets have everything in place to make a deep playoff run. They have the two-time MVP in Jokic (who also inked an extension that should keep him with the Nuggets for years to come), plenty of scoring, lineup versatility and they seem to have shored up their defense. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Denver was in the Western Conference Finals or even the 2023 NBA Finals.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Additions: Kyle Anderson (free agency), Bryn Forbes (free agency), Rudy Gobert (trade), Josh Minott (2022 NBA Draft), Wendell Moore Jr. (2022 NBA Draft), Austin Rivers (free agency), A.J. Lawson (Two-Way), Eric Paschall (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Malik Beasley (Jazz via trade), Patrick Beverley (Jazz via trade (since traded to the Lakers)), Leandro Bolmaro (Jazz via trade), Jake Layman (unrestricted free agent), Greg Monroe (unrestricted free agent), Josh Okogie (Suns via free agency), Jarred Vanderbilt (Jazz via trade), McKinley Wright (Mavericks via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: Minnesota made the biggest move of the offseason, both literally and figuratively. The Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert by sending the Jazz a package that included multiple players and several years of draft picks. The hope is that Gobert will fix the interior defense issues that have plagued the Wolves for years and that his offensive limitations will be masked by a talented scoring group.

The big question (no pun intended) is: Can Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns play together? Offensively, it doesn’t seem to be a challenge. Towns is perfectly comfortable and capable on the perimeter. On defense, Towns will have to step out and defend on the perimeter more than ever. Gobert will be at the rim to clean things up when drivers slip by Towns, but getting out to shooters on a regular basis will be a new experience.

Trading so many players for Gobert meant that new front office leader Tim Connelly had to rebuild some depth on the fly. All things considered, Connelly did a solid job filling out the rotation.

Kyle Anderson was poached from the Grizzlies and he’ll be a great fit coming off the bench. Anderson can back up both forward spots and he can start if necessary. His passing will be a boon to a frontcourt that features mostly finishers vs passers.

Bryn Forbes came over to be a designated shooter off the bench. On the nights where he’s rolling, Forbes will play. When he’s not, he won’t see many minutes. Austin Rivers was also brought in to add depth and a little defense to the backcourt.

If Gobert and Towns mesh, the Wolves have a chance to be very good. Anthony Edwards is ready to break out as a super star. D’Angelo Russell isn’t perfect, but he’s better than most give him credit for. Taurean Prince was extended for some additional frontcourt depth, and his contract looks like a nice potential trade chip. And keep an eye on Jaden McDaniels. He’s got a ton of potential and could be the team’s starting small forward in a lineup that would be absolutely enormous.

The Wolves have made the playoffs just twice since Kevin Garnett was traded 15 years ago. This group appears set to break that string with multiple appearances. The real question: Can Minnesota do more than just make the playoffs? That depends on the big guys and Edwards all hitting the top end of their potential.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Additions: Ousmane Dieng (2022 NBA Draft), Chet Holmgren (2022 NBA Draft), Jalen Williams (2022 NBA Draft), Jaylin Williams (2022 NBA Draft), Eugene Omoruyi (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Isaiah Roby (Spurs via waiver claim), Melvin Frazier Jr. (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $8.5 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: It felt like this season the Thunder would start to take steps forward in their rebuild. Then one injury seems to have them back several steps.

Chet Holmgren, the second overall pick, will miss the entire season after a Lisfranc fracture suffered over the summer. That’s a blow to a team that was going to be mixing and matching in their frontcourt to figure out who fits together with Holmgren. Now, a year of on-court development is gone.

On the plus side, all of the Thunder’s other young pieces are ready to go. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort (freshly re-signed to a five-year deal) are all over their injuries and ready to start the season. First rounder Jalen Williams will add to that mix, along with holdover Tre Mann to give Mark Daigneault a lot of options to play with in his backcourt.

Up front, despite Holmgren being out, Daigneault will attempt to work draft picks Ousmane Dieng and Jaylin Williams into a group that features a bunch of question marks. Darius Bazley is the most accomplished of the bunch and he’s still very much a question mark heading into Year 4. Aleksej Pokusevski has potential, but it’s mostly unrealized. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aaron Wiggins both flashed as rookies, but need a lot more work. And Kenrich Williams was extended as the veteran of the group at the ripe old age of…27. But that’s a good thing, as Williams is an underrated player.

Oklahoma City was going to be bad again, but it was going to the kind of bad with a purpose. Now, part of that purpose is hard to define with Holmgren out. But the Thunder and Sam Presti are pretty good at making lemonades out of lemons.

There are a ton of minutes available in OKC and a lot of interesting young players competing for them. The competition for roster spots in the preseason should be pretty fierce. Even with Holmgren out, that’s a positive. Another year of development and likely another high draft pick are coming, and then maybe the Thunder start stepping forward in 2023.

 

Portland Trail Blazers

Additions: Drew Eubanks (free agency), Jerami Grant (trade), Gary Payton II (free agency), Shaedon Sharpe (2022 NBA Draft), Jabari Walker (2022 NBA Draft)

Subtractions: Eric Bledsoe (waived), C.J. Elleby (Timberwolves via free agency), Elijah Hughes (unrestricted free agent), Joe Ingles (Bucks via free agency), Didi Louzada (waived), Ben McLemore (unrestricted free agent), Keljin Blevins (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $6.5 million Traded Player Exception, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: The Trail Blazers season went off the rails last year. A rash of injuries sunk the team before they had a chance to really get started. That snapped a string of eight straight playoff appearances. If Portland has their way, that will be a one-year thing.

The Blazers acquired Jerami Grant to help shore up the team’s forward position. Grant can play both forward spots and should give Portland the best athlete they’ve had with Damian Lillard (who extended and added a couple more years to his deal through 2026-27) in a while. He wants a contract extension, but that seems to be in wait-and-see mode for the time being.

Portland also added Gary Payton II from the Warriors to improve the perimeter defense. Payton should fit in perfectly in a three-guard rotation with Lillard and Anfernee Simons. He can play with either guy and will defend the opponent’s best perimeter scorer on a nightly basis.

Speaking of Simons, he was one of two big re-signings by the Blazers. One of the primary beneficiaries of last season’s injuries, Simons took advantage of his extra minutes. He’s an incredibly talented offensive player who should fill the role C.J. McCollum held down for nearly a decade.

Jusuf Nurkic was the other key re-signing. Portland had no real way of replacing Nurkic if he had left, and they don’t have another player ready to step in for him. That meant the Blazers overpaid to re-sign him, but it’s hardly a cap-crippling deal. Plus, Nurkic has great chemistry with Lillard and that’s worth a good amount on its own.

Shaedon Sharpe was the “man of mystery” at the draft. The Blazers are betting he’ll pop in a similar way to Simons. It might take a year or two, but Sharpe has a ton of natural talent.

Overall, Portland looks to have a solid roster. If healthy, they’ll be in the playoff mix. But outside of a team or two unexpectedly slipping, it’s hard to see a path where the Trail Blazers aren’t having to make their way through the Play-In Tournament to start a new playoff streak.

 

Utah Jazz

Additions: Malik Beasley (trade), Patrick Beverley (trade (since traded to Lakers), Leandro Bolmaro (trade), Simone Fontecchio (free agency), Talen Horton-Tucker (trade), Stanley Johnson (trade), Walker Kessler (2022 NBA Draft rights trade), Jarred Vanderbilt (trade), Johnny Juzang (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Trent Forrest (Hawks via free agency), Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves via trade), Juancho Hernangomez (waived), Danuel House Jr. (76ers via free agency), Royce O’Neal (Nets via trade), Eric Paschall (Timberwolves via trade), Hassan Whiteside (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $9.7 million Traded Player Exception, $9.2 million Traded Player Exception, $7.3 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: When he was running the Boston Celtics, Danny Ainge was tabbed with the moniker “Trader Danny” and he’s living up to that nickname with the Jazz. Ainge has kicked off a reset or rebuild for Utah. What will determine that designation is what happens with Donovan Mitchell.

Ainge traded two starters away already by sending Rudy Gobert to Minnesota and Royce O’Neale to Brooklyn. Gobert netted Utah a massive return of players and future draft picks, while O’Neale brought over another first round pick.

Now, Ainge has his eyes on trading Mitchell for another huge haul. The New York Knicks have been keen on adding Mitchell, and have picks and young players to offer. So far, the Knicks have held firm on not giving Utah the additional draft pick or picks and all the young players they seem to want. Still, most expect a deal to eventually get done because it makes too much sense for both parties.

The Jazz also flipped Patrick Beverley to the Los Angeles Lakers to take a flyer on Talen Horton-Tucker. The versatile guard has shown a ton of potential, but was blocked from getting more minutes in LA. That problem shouldn’t exist in Utah…eventually.

Once Ainge is able to trade Mitchell, he can focus on finding homes for a slew of veterans who have no place on a rebuilding team. Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gay and maybe even recently-acquired Malik Beasley could all have new homes before training camp starts. That’ll open up minutes for the younger players the Jazz will be evaluating all season.

This is the playbook Ainge used to rebuild the Celtics after trading away Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. He amassed draft picks in the initial trade and then kept adding to the hoard by flipping useful veterans for more picks.

It’s hard to fully evaluate the Utah roster, because everything feels unfinished. If Mitchell and the vets are still with the Jazz to start the season, they’ll be a competitive team towards the bottom of the Play-In mix. But that’s not what anyone in Utah wants.

The goal here is to bottom out and start over around kids and an overflowing treasure chest of draft picks. And if one of those picks turns out to be Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, so much the better. The years of being a solid playoff team, but no better, are gone in Utah. The Jazz are taking a big step backwards in hopes of eventually taking the biggest step forward they’ve ever taken.

Keith SmithAugust 30, 2022

The NBA offseason is basically behind us. Rosters are largely finished, despite a potential Donovan Mitchell trade still hanging around.

Teams are mostly adding camp players and angling for Affiliate Player rights to get them to their G League teams. A few notable free agents remain unsigned, but the vast majority of potential rotation players have been signed.

Now, it’s time to start looking towards the start of the 2022-23 season. With training camps opening in approximately one month, let’s start by looking back at what changes the 2022 offseason brought.

The Atlantic Division has a couple of title contenders, a solid playoff team, another that could be a solid playoff team and the most confusing team in the NBA. The Boston Celtics made the 2022 NBA Finals and hope that their additions will allow them finish the job this time around. The Philadelphia 76ers have added depth and defense around their star duo in hopes of finally finding playoff success. The Toronto Raptors have resisted breaking up their core and will be firmly in the playoff mix. In New York, the Knicks are still pushing for a Donovan Mitchell deal to supplement what was already a solid offseason. And then there are the Brooklyn Nets. The talent is there for a deep playoff run, but how long will it all hold together after a season and summer marked by absences and unhappiness?

 

Boston Celtics

Additions: Malcom Brogdon (trade), Danilo Gallinari (free agency), J.D. Davison (Two-Way), Mfiondu Kabengele (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Malik Fitts (Pacers via trade (since waived)), Juwan Morgan (Pacers via trade (since waived)), Aaron Nesmith (Pacers via trade), Nik Stauskas (Pacers via trade (since waived)), Daniel Theis (Pacers via trade), Matt Ryan (unrestricted free agent), Brodric Thomas (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts, $6.9 million Traded Player Exception, $5.9 million Traded Player Exception

Analysis: The Celtics made only a couple of additions, but they were big ones that Boston hopes will help them get back to, and win, the NBA Finals. And with several roster spots still open, there is still some work left to do too.

Boston traded for Malcolm Brogdon in an attempt to clean up some of the ballhandling issues that infected the team during the playoffs. Brogdon’s ability to play on and off-ball, as well as his willingness to come off the bench, are also big for the team. And, Boston parted with no key rotation players to get Brogdon. Aaron Nesmith was stuck without enough time to develop on a contender, and Daniel Theis was only a semi-regular in the rotation.

In free agency, the Celtics signed Danilo Gallinari. The hope is that Gallinari, paired with Brogdon, will give Boston the bench scoring they lacked as they got deeper into the playoffs. An offseason meniscus injury has Gallinari’s availability somewhat in doubt, but the hope is he won’t miss much time.

Beyond that, the Eastern Conference champs are basically running it back. There are a slew of veterans reportedly joining Boston in a training camp battle for regular season roster spots. Someone out of the group of Bruno Caboclo, Noah Vonleh, Denzel Valentine and possibly Brodric Thomas and Matt Ryan, will emerge to snag a spot on the regular season roster.

Boston could use another big. Maybe they need another big wing if Gallinari is out for a while. But for now, that will all play itself out during camp and the early part of the regular season.

The Celtics still have some tradable assets available to them, if needed. They can match salary with relative ease in a deal for a high-salary player, or they can ship off a combination of young players in a deal with a rebuilding team. But, for now at least, Boston’s roster seems relatively set. They’ve added depth around their rotation mainstays and will start their title push with the group they’ve got.

 

Brooklyn Nets

Additions: Markieff Morris (free agency), Royce O’Neale (trade), Edmond Sumner (free agency), T.J. Warren (free agency), Alondes Williams (Two-Way)

Subtractions: LaMarcus Aldridge (unrestricted free agent), Bruce Brown Jr. (Nuggets via free agency), Goran Dragic (Bulls via free agency), Andre Drummond (Bulls via free agency), Blake Griffin (unrestricted free agent), David Duke Jr. (restricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $6.5 million Taxpayer MLE

Analysis: “Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” is a line from Macbeth, but Shakespeare could have just as easily been writing about the Brooklyn Nets over the last year.

It’s not that the Nets did nothing, because Brooklyn made some solid pickups. But for the most part, after a lot of noise and speculation, the main news is that Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are back in the fold and ready to go.

For months, Durant’s trade request, made in the moments just before free agency opened, lingered over the NBA. Some players and teams were paralyzed while waiting on a Durant deal to develop. A similar, but less impactful, process played out with Irving.

Now, both superstars are back in Brooklyn. For how long? That’s anyone’s guess.

With Durant and Irving, and a hopefully healthy Ben Simmons, the Nets have a solid nucleus for the upcoming season. There are availability questions, as all three have missed considerable time with injuries over the years, but it’s as a good a starting point as any team in the league.

Brooklyn re-signed Nic Claxton, Patty Mills and Kessler Edwards to start rounding out the rotation. Claxton has a clear runway to the starting center spot, while Mills should revert back to the high-end backup role he was always intended to play. The Nets will also welcome back Seth Curry and a healthy Joe Harris, which allows Steve Nash to put plenty of shooting around his All-Star trio.

Royce O’Neale was added to help upgrade the team’s wing defense. O’Neale slipped some while with the Jazz last year, but if he can find his form again, he’ll play plenty as one of the team’s better big wing defenders.

The Nets took a chance on a pair of former Pacers by signing T.J. Warren and Edmond Sumner. Both are coming off seasons that were lost to injury, but have shown plenty in the past. Warren will give the team some frontcourt scoring punch off the bench, assuming he can stay healthy. Sumner could be a bigger option for a backcourt that is comprised of mostly smaller players.

Perhaps because of waiting out the Durant trade request, Brooklyn’s roster feels a little unfinished. They added Markieff Morris as a veteran frontcourt option, but the Nets could still use more depth up front. They don’t have anything resembling a proven backup center option, and that’s a hole given Claxton is a first-time starter.

If everything comes, and holds, together, the Nets are title contenders. But they’ve got to get past a summer of unhappiness, while incorporating a lot of new faces. And then they have to stay healthy. That’s a lot of “ifs”, but the collection of talent can’t be overlooked in Brooklyn.

 

New York Knicks

Additions: Jalen Brunson (free agency), Isaiah Hartenstein (free agency), Trevor Keels (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Ryan Arcidiacono (unrestricted free agent), Alec Burks (Pistons via trade), Taj Gibson (Wizards via free agency), Nerlens Noel (Pistons via trade), Kemba Walker (Pistons via trade)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $5.4 million Room Exception

Analysis: Roster changes weren’t numerous for the Knicks, but they were as impactful as any team in the NBA. New York rapidly moved on from previous free agent additions while upgrading at both point guard and center.

The offseason centered around adding Jalen Brunson. New York will probably get punished for tampering with the former Mavericks guard, but they’ll happily pay a second pick in exchange for Brunson leading the backcourt moving forward.

If Brunson looks like the player he was for a lot of last season but especially in the playoffs, no one will bat an eye at his $26 million average annual salary. Brunson is that good. And he fills a spot that’s been a long-term issue for the Knicks.

Up front, New York added Isaiah Hartenstein on one of the best value deals of the summer. Hartenstein is one of the better rim protectors in the league, and his offensive game has continued to develop. He’ll pair with a re-signed (if slightly overpaid) Mitchell Robinson to give the Knicks 48 minutes of quality center play.

To clear the space for Brunson and Hartenstein, New York salary-dumped the trio of Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and Kemba Walker into the Detroit Pistons cap space. Injury and age-related issues made it unlikely any of the three would be major contributors for the Knicks this season. Essentially, New York didn’t lose much of anything in moving on here to make two major upgrades.

The next big decision was to ink RJ Barrett to a reported four-year, $120 million extension. While many are screaming about $30 million per season for Barrett, that lacks context. With the salary cap going up, that’s going to be the going rate for an All-Star level of player. And that’s exactly what Barrett should become over the next couple of seasons.

And, of course, the Knicks are still trying to get a Donovan Mitchell trade done. Most around the NBA expect this to happen, but it will have to wait until both New York ups their offer a bit, while the Utah Jazz simultaneously bring down their asking price a bit.

Assuming a Mitchell deal happens, New York will be in the mix for a top-six spot and an assured playoff spot. Without Mitchell, the Knicks are part of a pretty big group that will be fighting to make it through the Play-In Tournament. That’s the difference adding Mitchell will make in taking this from a pretty good offseason to an excellent one.

 

Philadelphia 76ers

Additions: Danuel House Jr. (free agency), De’Anthony Melton (trade), Trevelin Queen (free agency), P.J. Tucker (free agency), Julian Champagnie (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Danny Green (Grizzlies via trade), DeAndre Jordan (Nuggets via free agency), Paul Millsap (unrestricted free agent), Myles Powell (China via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts

Analysis: The Sixers are making a title run by shoring up their defense and depth in the front court and on the wing. And Daryl Morey turned to some familiar faces to do so.

P.J. Tucker was coaxed over from the Miami Heat with a three-year deal for the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That deal could look a little sketchy in a year or two, but Tucker should hold his value for at least the next season. He’ll give Philadelphia a solid backup 4/5 or he could start at the 4 if Doc Rivers goes a little bigger to open games. Tucker has slipped just a bit against quicker perimeter players, but he can hold up against anyone else.

Danuel House was brought in to help defend the bigger wings that often gave the 76ers trouble. He got the Bi-Annual Exception, which is more than fair value for what House can do as a 3&D player. Trevelin Queen was also added as a bit of a flyer to do similar work to House. He flashed potential with the Houston Rockets while on a Two-Way last season, so Queen is someone to keep an eye on.

In the backcourt/wing mix, Philadelphia swapped Danny Green and a first-round pick to bring in De’Anthony Melton. Melton immediately becomes the team’s backup combo guard behind James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. He should be an upgrade over Shake Milton, who was previously tasked with that role.

All of these additions were made possible by James Harden opting out and taking significantly less in a new deal. That freed up the necessary cap and tax flexibility for Morey to add to the roster. Harden signed a two-year, $68.6 million contract, but everyone expects he’ll opt out and then sign a long-term deal for max money next summer.

None of the players Philadelphia lost will likely have much of an impact. The team didn’t replace DeAndre Jordan with another veteran center, and that’s one of the few holes the Sixers still have to fill. Given Joel Embiid’s injury history, you’d like to have a proven veteran behind him. That’s something Morey can address down the line, if necessary.

It remains to be seen if Harden’s sacrifice will be worth it or not, but this is the best roster Philadelphia has taken into a season in a while. Everyone is healthy and hungry to advance beyond the second round. If Harden is back near his MVP form, the 76ers are title contenders. If not, they’re capped as a good, but not great playoff team.

 

Toronto Raptors

Additions: Juancho Hernangomez (free agency), Christian Koloko (2022 NBA Draft), Otto Porter Jr. (free agency), D.J. Wilson (free agency), Jeff Dowtin (Two-Way), Ron Harper Jr. (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Isaac Bonga (Germany via free agency), Armoni Brooks (waived), Svi Mykhailiuk (waived), Yuta Watanabe (Nets via free agency), David Johnson (restricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $2.99 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception, $5.25 million Traded Player Exception

Analysis: Toronto had an eventful offseason, but is mostly running back the same squad as last year’s talented team. Team president Masai Ujiri waded into trade talks for a couple of superstars, but held firm on keeping players the Raptors have put a high value on.

Scottie Barnes was deemed off limits in trade talks after he won 2022 Rookie of the Year. That’s a reasonable, and likely prudent, decision. Barnes is already good and still overflowing with potential to be better. Toronto has put a less firm, but still solid, stake in the ground on not trading OG Anunoby either.

Barnes and Anunoby, alongside veterans Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr give the Raptors a tough, versatile starting group on both ends of the floor. Behind them, Ujiri has done a good job giving Nick Nurse options to play both big and small, depending on what matchups call for.

The Raptors signed Thaddeus Young to a two-year extension, but left the second season most non-guaranteed should Young age out faster than expected. The team also re-signed Chris Boucher for additional frontcourt depth. Boucher has been a little all over the map, but if he can find consistency with his shot, he’ll be well worth the three-year, $35 million deal he got.

The most important new face is Toronto adding Otto Porter Jr. to their never-ending collection of forwards. How Porter fits in a crowded group at the forward spot is something Nurse will have to work out, but he’s on an excellent value contract.

Ujiri may not have swung a deal for Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert, but that doesn’t mean he’s not working on something. The Raptors are set to trade from a position of strength, especially at the 3-5 spots. When it’s time to go all in for a star, Ujiri will be able put together a solid package, while still leaving Toronto with plenty of depth.

Until then, the Raptors are a really good team. They’re a tier below the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but it won’t take much to make the step up. If Barnes develops, or they make a big trade, Toronto will be in the mix to make a deep playoff run.

Keith SmithAugust 29, 2022

The NBA offseason is basically behind us. Rosters are largely finished, despite the Los Angeles Lakers making a late push to rebuild their roster ahead of training camp and a Donovan Mitchell trade still floating around.

Teams are mostly adding camp players and angling for Affiliate Player rights to get them to their G League teams. A few notable free agents remain unsigned, but the vast majority of potential rotation players have been signed.

Now, it’s time to start looking towards the start of the 2022-23 season. With training camps opening in approximately one month, let’s start by looking back at what changes the 2022 offseason brought.

The Pacific Division is the home of the defending champions, the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors got fully back on track with a mostly-healthy season and won their fourth title in the last eight years. The champs fully intend to contend again this coming season. The Phoenix Suns slid back to the pack just a bit and missed out on a second straight Finals berth, but they’ll be back as contenders. The LA Clippers have to be healthier this season. If so, the Clips have the deepest roster in the NBA, and give the division a third title contender. The Los Angeles Lakers are less deep, but any team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis is starting from a good place. And if they can swing another late deal, they’ll be positioned to contend again. And then we have the Sacramento Kings. They aren’t quite on par with the rest of the division, but Sacramento isn’t a laughingstock anymore either. They’ve got a talented roster that is hungry is to win.

 

Golden State Warriors

Additions: Patrick Baldwin Jr. (2022 NBA Draft), Donte DiVincenzo (free agency), JaMychal Green (free agency), Ryan Rollins (2022 NBA Draft), Lester Quinones (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Nemanja Bjelica (Turkey via free agency), Andre Iguodala (unrestricted free agent), Damion Lee (Suns via free agency), Gary Payton II (Trail Blazers via free agency), Otto Porter Jr. (Raptors via free agency), Juan Toscano-Anderson (Lakers via free agency), Chris Chiozza (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts

Analysis: The Warriors mainstays are all back. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are back to make another run at a fifth title. Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole have grown into All-Star level players and are also back. In addition, Golden State re-signed Kevon Looney. That’s the top-six players in the rotation that are all returning.

It’s after that where things will look different. The Warriors lost key rotation players in Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. They also lost some of their deeper bench players who have all had moments in Damion Lee, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Nemanja Bjelica.

The only major additions Golden State brought in were Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green. In effect, they’ll replace Payton and Porter. DiVincenzo was finding his way with the Bucks before an injury caused him to miss Milwaukee’s title run and a large chunk of last season. If healthy, he’ll be a shooting and playmaking weapon alongside Poole in the Warriors backcourt. Green is starting to slow down, but he’ll give the team a solid 10-15 minutes a night at the 4 or the 5.

The main difference for the Warriors this year is that their kids like James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody should have a runway to more minutes. If one of two of them pop, Golden State will have added depth for this upcoming season and a bridge to the post-Curry/Green/Thompson years.

This is a key year for Golden State. Ownership has made waves about curbing some of the record spending that occurs every year. That could see major roster upheaval happen next summer. But for this season, the Warriors should be right back in the mix for another championship.

 

LA Clippers

Additions: John Wall (free agency), Moussa Diabate (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Isaiah Hartenstein (Knicks via free agency), Rodney Hood (unrestricted free agent), Jay Scrubb (waived)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts

Analysis: The Clippers offseason didn’t involve a lot of roster changes. But that doesn’t mean they’ll look like the same team next season.

John Wall finally worked a buyout with the Houston Rockets and he signed on with LA. Wall will likely back up Reggie Jackson initially, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Wall eventually take over the starting role. He reportedly looks healthy and feels good. Wall’s a candidate for a bounce-back season.

The team’s lone loss in free agency was a big one. When the Clips committed the Taxpayer MLE to Wall, Isaiah Hartenstein left for a bigger deal from the New York Knicks. That leaves LA shorthanded at the center spot behind Ivica Zubac. That’s something the team may eventually need to address beyond camp signing Moses Brown.

Speaking of Zubac, he was one of four Clippers veterans to land a new contract. Joining Zubac in reupping in Los Angeles were Nic Batum, Amir Coffey and Robert Covington. That foursome, along with the return of some injured stars gives Ty Lue the deepest roster in the NBA.

With Kawhi Leonard set to return and Paul George healthy after an injury-plagued season, the Clippers have star power and depth. There are at least 12 legitimate NBA players on this roster. Lue will have his work cut out for him to keep everyone happy with enough minutes. But LA will likely liberally rest players, making that an easier task than it seems.

The goal for the Clippers is to win the franchise’s first title. With a such a deep roster, anything but a Finals run will be a disappointment.

 

Los Angeles Lakers

Additions: Patrick Beverley (trade), Troy Brown Jr. (free agency), Thomas Bryant (free agency), Max Christie (2022 NBA Draft), Damian Jones (free agency), Juan Toscano-Anderson (free agency), Lonnie Walker IV (free agency), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Two-Way), Cole Swider (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Carmelo Anthony (unrestricted free agent), D.J. Augustin (unrestricted free agent), Kent Bazemore (Kings via free agency), Avery Bradley (unrestricted free agent), Wayne Ellington (unrestricted free agent), Talen Horton-Tucker (Jazz via trade), Dwight Howard (unrestricted free agent), Stanley Johnson (Jazz via trade), Mason Jones (unrestricted free agent), Mac McClung (Warriors via free agency), Malik Monk (Kings via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts

Analysis: The Lakers continued their quest to build another title team around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Yes, Russell Westbrook is still in Los Angeles, but just about everyone else is gone.

After signing a bunch of veterans to one-year contracts a year ago, the Lakers let most of those same players leave this summer. In their places, LA went younger and more versatile. That alone should be an upgrade.

Leading the new-look Lakers will be Darvin Ham. After years of being an assistant to watch, Ham finally landed his first head coaching gig. It seems long overdue, as Ham appears to be more than ready for the bright lights of Los Angeles.

To this point, the biggest on-court addition for the Lakers was their most recent one. After a deal for Kyrie Irving never came together, Rob Pelinka traded for Patrick Beverley to give them team some additional guard depth. Beverley is easily the best perimeter defender on the roster, and he’s a good off-ball player as a cutter and shooter.

The Lakers had to give up Talen Horton-Tucker, but there wasn’t room or a fit for him in the team’s rotation. He was an on-ball creator on a team that already features several of those. Stanley Johnson was the best wing defender the Lakers have, but he was poised to be supplanted in the rotation anyway.

Of the free agent additions, they can be lumped into two categories: wings and centers.

The Lakers added Lonnie Walker IV to give the team the scoring punch they lost when Malik Monk headed to the Kings. Juan Toscano-Anderson should replace Johnson as the team’s energetic wing defender. And Troy Brown Jr. has talent, but he’s never put it all together. If he can just focus on getting out and filling lanes on the break and finding shooting space, Brown might finally pop.

Up front, Los Angeles went younger and more skilled by bringing back a couple of familiar faces. Thomas Bryant and Damian Jones are solid, if unspectacular centers. Bryant brings a good offensive game, but he’s not much of a defender. Jones has been a decent rim protector and rebounder. Overall, they should make a productive platoon.

Still, you get the sense this roster isn’t finished. Westbrook is still very available in trade. The Lakers have recently made it known they’re willing to trade both of their tradable first round picks in 2027 and 2029 if they can get back rotation upgrades. That’ll probably continue to drag on until the trade deadline, if Westbrook isn’t moved.

As is, the Lakers aren’t title contenders. In a deep Western Conference, it’ll be a fight for them to even make the playoffs. If they can flip Westbrook and bring back a couple of rotation players, then they’ll have the depth to make a run at a top-six spot and an assured playoff spot. If they do that and stay healthy, Los Angeles could even make a run at the Finals.

 

Phoenix Suns

Additions: Jock Landale (trade), Damion Lee (free agency), Josh Okogie (free agency), Duane Washington Jr. (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Aaron Holiday (Hawks via free agency), Gabriel Lundberg (Italy via free agency), JaVale McGee (Mavericks via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $6.5 million Taxpayer MLE

Analysis: Phoenix didn’t change much. They were a perplexing Game 7 blowout loss from making it back to the Western Conference Finals. Despite some drama with Deandre Ayton, the Suns are basically running it back with the group that made the 2021 NBA Finals.

Ayton’s restricted free agency hung over the summer longer than most expected. Phoenix held firm that they would give Ayton a four-year max deal, but wouldn’t go to a five-year deal. The Suns also said they’d match any offer sheets Ayton signed, and that’s exactly what they did. Now, Phoenix has Ayton on a slightly less expensive four-year deal after matching the Indiana Pacers offer sheet, than they would have from paying Ayton outright.

Still, keeping Ayton was the correct move. He’s not perfect, but Ayton fits in well with Chris Paul and Devin Booker and is one of the better scoring/rebounding centers in the league. Phoenix should be happy they’ve still got the young big man in the fold.

The Suns re-signed Bismack Biyombo to back up Ayton, while letting JaVale McGee walk for more money in free agency. Biyombo had a career resurgence last season, and he’ll be fine for 10-15 minutes a night behind Ayton.

Returning to the frontcourt mix this season should be Dario Saric. He missed the entirety of last season after tearing his ACL in the 2021 NBA Finals. If healthy, Saric gives Monty Williams a versatile offensive player to throw in the frontcourt mix.

Phoenix brought in Damion Lee, fresh off a title with the Golden State Warriors, and Josh Okogie to give the team some additional wing depth. At times, injuries caused Williams to play imbalanced lineups last season. Lee and Okogie should provide some decent depth, should that issue arise again.

There really isn’t much else to say. If healthy, the Suns are title contenders. They’ve got all the ingredients a championship team needs. And they’ve got enough tradable contracts to address any holes that crop up during the year. The title window might not stay open long in Phoenix, but they seem to be making the most of it while it is open.

 

Sacramento Kings

Additions: Kent Bazemore (free agency), Quinn Cook (free agency), Matthew Dellavedova (free agency), Kevin Huerter (trade), Sam Merrill (free agency), Chima Moneke (free agency), Malik Monk (free agency), Keegan Murray (2022 NBA Draft), KZ Okpala (free agency), Keon Ellis (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Donte DiVincenzo (Warriors via free agency), Maurice Harkless (Hawks via trade), Justin Holiday (Hawks via trade), Josh Jackson (unrestricted free agent), Damian Jones (Lakers via free agency), Jeremy Lamb (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $4.1 million of Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: Sacramento isn’t content with being the “same old Kings” anymore. They might not make the playoffs this season, but it won’t be for lack of trying.

The Kings added several rotation upgrades this summer that should make them a more competitive squad all the way through the regular season. And they didn’t sacrifice much in terms of future flexibility to do it either.

Keegan Murray landed in Sacramento at the draft and he already looks like a keeper. Murray can shoot, score and rebound at the forward position. He’s got the ideal player to learn from alongside him in Harris Barnes. Early on, Murray looks like a draft win for the Kings.

Sacramento upgraded their shooting and wing scoring by signing Malik Monk and trading for Kevin Huerter. Monk is the best shooter on the roster, and after a year playing with LeBron James, Monk knows how to get open to find his shots.

Huerter should be an ideal fit next to De’Aaron Fox in the backcourt. He’s got great size, he’s a better defender than most think, and Huerter is a good passer too. Like Monk, he’s also become adept at playing off-ball and drifting into spots where playmakers can find him for shots.

The Kings are going to get a full season with Domantas Sabonis, after last year’s deadline deal brought the All-Star big man to Sacramento. Sabonis’ passing and scoring should allow new head coach Mike Brown and staff to get creative with their offensive sets. They can run the offense through Sabonis or Fox, while players like Huerter, Barnes, Murray and Monk can play the role of secondary creators.

Brown should also bring better organization to the Kings defense. Sacramento isn’t flush with good defenders yet, but they should execute better with some sound schemes. It’s a start and one that should be miles better than what we’ve seen recently.

The playoff drought might not be quite ready to end, but this Kings squad should be firmly in the mix all year. If a team or two stumbles, and things come together quickly in Sacramento, a trip to the Play-In Tournament should be in the offing. That would be a good step forward for a franchise that hasn’t seen the postseason in any form in nearly two decades.

Keith SmithAugust 25, 2022

The NBA offseason is basically behind us. Rosters are largely finished, despite the Los Angeles Lakers making a late push to rebuild their roster ahead of training camp.

Teams are mostly adding camp players and angling for Affiliate Player rights to get them to their G League teams. A few notable free agents remain unsigned, but the vast majority of potential rotation players have been signed.

Now, it’s time to start looking towards the start of the 2022-23 season. With training camps opening in approximately one month, let’s start by looking back at what changes the 2022 offseason brought.

The Southeast Division is a mix of contenders, middle-of-the-pack squads and rebuilding teams. The Miami Heat are annually in the mix to the make the NBA Finals, and this season shouldn’t be any different. The Atlanta Hawks are looking to rebound and make an Eastern Conference Finals run like they did in 2021. The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards seem perpetually stuck around the Play-In picture. The Orlando Magic are the worst team in the division, but their future is arguably the brightest of any Southeast Division team.

 

Atlanta Hawks

Additions: A.J. Griffin (2022 NBA Draft), Maurice Harkless (trade), Aaron Holiday (free agency), Justin Holiday (trade), Frank Kaminsky (free agency), Tyrese Martin (2022 NBA Draft), Dejounte Murray (trade), Trent Forrest (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Sharife Cooper (waived), Gorgui Dieng (Spurs via free agency), Danilo Gallinari (Celtics after being waived by Spurs after trade), Kevin Huerter (Kings via trade), Kevin Knox (Pistons via free agency), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (unrestricted free agent), Skylar Mays (unrestricted free agent), Lou Williams (unrestricted free agent), Delon Wright (Wizards via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $10.5 million Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis:  The Hawks have retooled their rotation around mainstays Trae Young, John Collins and Clint Capela. Atlanta brought in what they hope will be more defense and shooting, as they attempt to get back into contention after a down season.

Dejounte Murray was by far and away the biggest addition the Hawks made this summer. It cost Atlanta Danilo Gallinari and multiple first-round picks, but it should be worth it. The only reason it’s a “should” is because Murray’s fit alongside Young will take a little while to sort out. Murray is used to having the ball a lot, and he’s not great off-ball. Young is also a ball-dominant playmaker and scorer. Assuming they can mesh, the Hawks will have dual point-of-attack players that can score and create looks for others. And Murray is easily best defender on this roster already.

Beyond adding Murray, Atlanta swapped Kevin Huerter for Maurice Harkless and Justin Holiday. This move was driven by luxury tax concerns, but the Hawks did well to land Holiday. He’s a dependable shooter and should see plenty of minutes off the bench. Huerter’s shooting and scoring, as well as his passing and defense (both are better than you probably think), will be missed. But essentially, Murray is replacing Huerter, while Holiday replaces Gallinari. It’s a different look, and a smaller team, but it’s not likely to be any sort of downgrade.

None of the other changes, many as they were, screams huge upgrade or downgrade. The Hawks filled out the back of the bench with some veterans, which should help if there are injuries. The team still has their full MLE, but they are already pushing up against the tax line. That one may remain whole for a while, but could see a portion used during buyout season after the trade deadline.

To this point, despite many, many rumors to the contrary, Collins remains in Atlanta. That’s a good thing, as the Hawks didn’t really have a replacement ready in house for all Collins does for them. If De’Andre Hunter can stay healthy, and Bogdan Bogdanovic gets over offseason knee surgery quickly, Atlanta has the star power and depth to challenge for a top-6 spot in the East.

 

Charlotte Hornets

Additions: Mark Williams (2022 NBA Draft), Bryce McGowens (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Miles Bridges (restricted free agent), Montrezl Harrell (unrestricted free agent), Isaiah Thomas (unrestricted free agent), Arnoldas Kulboka (Greece via agency), Scottie Lewis (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $10.5 million Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: Charlotte’s offseason was fairly uneventful in terms of players coming and going, but that wasn’t really the Hornets fault. And it definitely wasn’t the team’s plan for this offseason.

Shortly before free agency opened, both Miles Bridges and Montrezl Harrell ran into legal issues. Those situations are currently ongoing and have impacted the free agency for both players. It’s impossible to know what the Hornets plans were, had Bridges or Harrell not run afoul of the law, so we’ll keep the focus to what the team actually did roster-wise.

Mark Williams was added at the draft. Williams looks like a good value pick in the middle of the first round, as well as filling an immediate need on the roster. Like a lot of young bigs, it’s going to take him a little while to adjust to the NBA game, but once Williams does, he should be good. The Duke product is a solid finisher around the rim, and the Hornets are filled with good passers to set him up. Eventually, Williams should also fill the role of rim protector and rebounder that this team desperately needs.

The only other addition of note was bringing back Steve Clifford as the team’s head coach. But even that process was fraught, as the Hornets thought they had Kenny Atkinson in the fold, before Atkinson changed his mind and chose to stay with the Golden State Warriors. That pushed the team back to Clifford for a second run in the Queen City.

Clifford has a history of cleaning things up with his teams and getting them to play as a more organized and cohesive group. Charlotte has been a good team the last couple of years, but sloppy play, combined with injuries, has seen them capped as a Play-In team.

The Hornets were able to re-sign Cody Martin on a nice value contract. He’ll play a big role as the team’s primary backup wing. That’s a key spot, considering Gordon Hayward’s continued troubles staying on the court.

Charlotte does have their full MLE remaining, but the free agent pool is pretty shallow at this point. Considering the team is sitting $22.5 million under the tax line, and the Bridges situation seems likely to remain unresolved for quite some time, it feels like the team missed a chance to add an impact player there.

Overall, this offseason seems really “meh” for the Hornets. The legal issues hung over everything and have left this roster feeling very unfinished. Unfortunately, that’s likely to continue well into the season at this point.

 

Miami Heat 

Additions: Nikola Jovic (2022 NBA Draft), Darius Days (Two-Way), Marcus Garrett (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Markieff Morris (unrestricted free agent), P.J. Tucker (76ers via free agency), Mychal Mulder (waived), Ja’Vonte Smart (waived)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $4 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: Miami’s offseason was focused on retaining their own free agents, despite one key player getting away. Yet, the Heat will still be good. The question now becomes: How good?

P.J. Tucker left Miami for Philadelphia and the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. Miami could have given the same deal to Tucker, but it would have caused constraints elsewhere with the roster. It’s a big loss for the Heat, as they haven’t replaced Tucker in any sort of meaningful way.

Of all the teams that can be considered Finals contenders, Miami arguably has the biggest hole of anyone. They don’t really have a power forward on the roster, but they don’t seem overly concerned about it either. The Heat believe they can get by with smaller lineups that feature more offensive versatility.

Of the team’s offseason additions, Nikola Jovic is the biggest one, but he’s unlikely to have much of an impact this season. The young forward will log time in the G League, but he’s got a ton of potential to be a contributor down the line.

Miami was able to bring back all of Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin and Dewayne Dedmon. Oladipo looked good in the playoffs last year, and should give Miami some scoring punch, whether he starts or comes off the bench.

Martin blossomed into a legitimate rotation player last season. He’ll start this year as one of Miami’s better 3&D options. Dedmon is back to provide frontcourt depth, but don’t be surprised if he’s surpassed by Omer Yurtseven in the rotation this season.

The major outstanding item for the Heat is an extension for Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro. The question there seems to be: How much can you pay a bench player? Of course, Herro has the potential to be much more than a bench player, but that’s his role for now. Projecting his impact as a full-time starter will drive how much Miami is willing to offer in a new deal.

The Heat have poked around trades for superstars like Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell, but nothing has come to fruition… yet. Some of that has to do with a lack of big, tradable contracts for Miami, as well as lacking some draft assets moving forward.

It feels like there’s another move or two to come for the Heat. This is especially true with adding more size to the frontcourt. But don’t count out Miami. They’ll play hard and they’ll find a way to get what they need by the trade deadline. They always do.

 

Orlando Magic 

Additions: Paolo Banchero (2022 NBA Draft), Caleb Houstan (2022 NBA Draft), Kevon Harris (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Ignas Brazdeikis (Lithuania via free agency), Robin Lopez (Cavaliers via free agency), 

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $8.5 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: The Magic kept it simple this summer. They selected Paolo Banchero first overall at the 2022 NBA Draft. Then Orlando re-signed some of their own free agents. The team is committed to the rebuilding process and isn’t looking for shortcuts with their roster.

Banchero was the right selection for Orlando at the top of the draft. He’s got the highest floor of the top prospects, while also having a high ceiling. Banchero’s ability to shoot, score and pass will be an immediate boon to a Magic offense that struggles to create easy offense. And Banchero moves well enough on defense that he’ll hold his own on a team that has a lot of solid defenders already.

In the second round, the Magic snagged Caleb Houstan in part because his rep as a shooter. Orlando struggled at times to convert open jumpers, so having someone who can help open up the floor for the bigs and drivers is a key. Houstan will get his chances to fill that role.

In free agency, the Magic re-signed Mo Bamba, Gary Harris and Bol Bol. All three got fully non-guaranteed second seasons. That’s a key, because it makes them very attractive trade chips up to the trade deadline, should Orlando choose to go in that direction.

Bamba had a breakout season last year. He was better around the rim, but the big improvement came with Bamba consistently knocking down three-pointers. He was also better as a rim protector and rebounder, finally making good on some of that potential he had flashed as an interior defender.

Harris had a bounce-back season for the Magic. Many missed it, as Harris toiled in relative obscurity in Orlando, but he averaged 11.1 points on better shooting than he had shown in the last few years. Harris’ no-nonsense approach also fits in well with the team’s really young backcourt.

Markelle Fultz is fully recovered from a torn ACL after returning late last season. Jonathan Isaac should finally be back on the floor as well. He’s missed two-plus seasons with a variety of knee and leg injuries. And Jalen Suggs is healthy after an injury-plagued rookie season.

Having those players back, along with Banchero, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter and Cole Anthony, should give the team plenty of opportunities to see how this group fits together on the court. This year is about developing the kids, while figuring out how all of these players fit together. That’s the focus for now. Wins will come, but that’s at least a year away in Orlando.

 

Washington Wizards 

Additions: Will Barton (trade), Johnny Davis (2022 NBA Draft), Taj Gibson (free agency), Monte Morris (trade), Delon Wright (free agency)

Subtractions: Thomas Bryant (Lakers via free agency), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets via trade), Raul Neto (Cavaliers via free agency), Tomas Satoransky (Spain via free agency), Ish Smith (Nuggets via trade) Cassius Winston (Germany via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $2.7 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million of Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: The Wizards big move was re-signing Bradley Beal. That was priority one and it was accomplished about as soon as free agency opened. But Washington made other moves that should make a big impact on the team’s success this season.

Let’s start with Beal. Did the Wizards give him everything they possible could? They sure did. He got a no-trade clause, a trade bonus, a player option and one of the largest contracts in NBA history. Did Washington have to give Beal all of that? That’s a bit more complicated.

Beal is the Wizards franchise player. He wants to be in Washington. Those are important things that often get overlooked. He’s also really good…when he’s healthy. And that last part is the challenge. There’s a good chance that Beal’s deal looks bad by the fifth season, when the veteran guard will be 33 years old. And that’s when the no-trade clause might come into play.

But those are all things to worry about later for Washington. For this season, they have their guy back and that’s going to be huge for the Wizards.

Helping Beal will be reinforcements at point guard and on the wing. Washington traded Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith to get Monte Morris and Will Barton. Morris will step in and give the team the solid point guard play they lacked for most of last season. He did well when filling in for Jamal Murray as a starter the last two seasons in Denver, and he looks poised for an even bigger role in Washington.

Backing up Morris will be Delon Wright. Wright has bounced around some the last few seasons, but remains a good backup point guard. He’s also got enough size to play alongside Morris in some lineups, if necessary.

Barton will replace Caldwell-Pope as a different look on the wing. Barton is a slashing scorer, whereas Caldwell-Pope was the archetypical 3&D wing. On those nights when the jumpers aren’t falling, Barton is a guy who can go get you a bucket.

Washington is looking forward to a full season with Kristaps Porzingis, as well as development from a host of young players including Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura and Corey Kispert. Kyle Kuzma is also back after turning his best all-around season in the NBA.

The Wizards need everything to fit right, as well as injury-prone players to stay healthy. If that happens, this team will challenge for a playoff spot. If the fits are off, or injuries strike again, it’ll be back to the lottery for Washington.

Keith SmithAugust 24, 2022

The NBA offseason is basically behind us. Rosters are largely finished, despite Donovan Mitchell and a few others still being on the trade market, even if Kevin Durant no longer is.

Teams are adding camp players and angling for Affiliate Player rights to get them to their G League teams. A few notable free agents remain unsigned, but the vast majority of potential rotation players have been signed.

Now, it’s time to start looking towards the start of the 2022-23 season. With training camps opening in approximately one month, let’s start by looking back at what changes the 2022 offseason brought.

The Southwest Division was one of the best in the NBA last season. Four of five teams made the postseason. The Dallas Mavericks made a run to the Western Conference Finals, while the Memphis Grizzlies finished with the second-best regular season record in the NBA. The New Orleans Pelicans made it through the Play-In Tournament before pushing the heavily-favored Phoenix Suns in the first round of the playoffs. And the Spurs managed to squeak into the last Play-In spot. Finally, the Houston Rockets might have had the NBA’s worst record, but it was by design as they leaned heavy into the second year of their rebuild.

 

Dallas Mavericks

Additions: Jaden Hardy (2022 NBA Draft), JaVale McGee (free agency), Christian Wood (trade), Tyler Dorsey (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Sterling Brown (Rockets via trade), Jalen Brunson (Knicks via free agency), Trey Burke (Rockets via trade), Marquese Chriss (Rockets via trade), Boban Marjanovic (Rockets via trade), Moses Wright (China via free agency)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts

Analysis:  The Mavericks didn’t make a lot of changes to their roster this summer, but the few they did make should have major impacts. Let’s start with adding Christian Wood.

Dallas traded four players for Wood, but none were regular rotation players by the end of last season. Wood is an immediate upgrade over the Mavs other big men. He’s the best inside-outside scorer of the group and should give Luka Doncic a versatile pick-and-roll partner. The other Dallas bigs are either rollers or poppers. Wood can both roll to the rim and finish, or he can pick-and-pop. That gives the Mavericks a more offensive versatility.

One of the reports out of Dallas is that Wood may start the year coming off the bench, and that’s because the Mavs other big addition this summer was reportedly promised a starting spot. Should JaVale McGee be getting that sort of promise? Probably not. But McGee should help shore up the interior defense for a team that was solid everywhere else. Thus, McGee starts, at least to open the season.

No matter what the lineup constructions are, both Wood and McGee are going to play a lot and that’s going to help the Mavericks. They traded some perimeter scoring, ballhandling and playmaking for size, but the hope is Dallas has enough of the former still on the roster.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely take back his starting spot, and he’ll give the team another offensive creator alongside Doncic. While not an actual addition, Hardaway missed the entire playoffs, so he’s kind of a like a new face from when we last saw the Mavericks.

Still, Jalen Brunson is a big loss. He really came into his own last season, especially in the postseason. Replacing Brunson will be a combination of Hardaway being back, a little more from Spencer Dinwiddie and further growth from Josh Green. Just don’t expect much from Jaden Hardy in his rookie year. He’ll probably log more G League minutes than NBA minutes, even if he’s got the potential to be a rotation player down the line.

The Mavs are probably one tier below the best teams in the West, with Golden State, Phoenix, the LA Clippers and Denver ahead of them. But if any of those teams slide, Dallas is poised to step forward, much like they did a season ago.

 

Houston Rockets

Additions: Sterling Brown (trade), Trey Burke (trade), Marquese Chriss (trade), Tari Eason (2022 NBA Draft), Trevor Hudgins (Two-Way), Boban Marjanovic (trade), Jabari Smith Jr. (2022 NBA Draft), TyTy Washington (2022 NBA Draft)

Subtractions: Anthony Lamb (unrestricted free agent), Trevelin Queen (76ers via free agency), Dennis Schroder (unrestricted free agent), John Wall (waived), Christian Wood (Mavericks via trade)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $10.5 million Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception, $3.1M Traded Player Exception for Christian Wood

Analysis: The Rockets were awful last season. But that wasn’t unexpected. Houston was supposed to be bad. Yet, it was somewhat of an odd season.

The Rockets had losing streaks of 15 games, 12 games, eight games, seven games and five games. They also, oddly, had a winning streak of seven games. As a matter of fact, that streak immediately followed the 15-game losing streak.

At any rate, Houston landed near the top of the lottery where they selected Jabari Smith Jr. The 6-foot-10 combo forward is flush with talent. He’s got just as much potential as either of the players selected before him (Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren), but Smith’s fit with the Rockets might be even better.

Houston has added a whopping seven first rounders in the last two drafts. Smith should slot in as a stater next two one of last year’s picks, Alperen Sengun, in the frontcourt. While Banchero and Holmgren would have been good fits with Sengun too, Smith’s athleticism should pair even better with the ground-bound big man.

On the wing, the Rockets re-signed Jae’Sean Tate to a great value contract. Tate has become Houston’s best perimeter defender and his off-ball ability is a boon to the team’s offense.

Tate’s ability to play without the ball is important because the Rockets guards get a lot of usage. Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are both solid scorers and playmakers. As they continue to grow and refine their games, they’ll likely become even better at setting up their teammates for scoring.

Houston also added Tari Eason and TyTy Washington at the draft. They’ll combine with a couple of last year’s first rounders, Josh Christopher and Usman Garuba, to make up what should be a very youthful bench. There’s a ton of potential there, even if will be a little wild and unharnessed at times.

After trading away Christian Wood to open up frontcourt playing time for the kids, Eric Gordon is somehow the last vet standing in Houston. Gordon is coming off another productive season, but as he’s now on a de facto expiring contract, it would be a surprise to see him remain with the Rockets past the trade deadline.

It’s probably going to be another year filled will losses for Houston. But their young core is as exciting as any in the NBA. And this team is going to have a few years to continue growing together, as so many of them were added in just last few seasons. Oh…and the Rockets project to have over $70 million in cap space next summer. So, yeah, the future is very bright in Houston.

 

Memphis Grizzlies

Additions: Kennedy Chandler (2022 NBA Draft), Danny Green (trade), Jake LaRavia (2022 NBA Draft), David Roddy (2022 NBA Draft), Kenneth Lofton Jr. (Two-Way), Vince Williams (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Kyle Anderson (Timberwolves via free agency), Jarrett Culver (unrestricted free agent), De’Anthony Melton (76ers via trade), Yves Pons (France via free agency), Tyrell Terry (waived)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $9.3 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: There was a thought that the 2022-23 season would be when the Grizzlies would start pushing forward after rebuilding. Memphis blew past those expectations by challenging for a playoff spot in the bubble, a playoff appearance two seasons ago and then by finishing with the NBA’s second-best record last season.

This offseason was about adding a bit more youth, while mostly keeping their cap space powder dry for future flexibility. In the process, Memphis lost a couple of rotation players, but they’re hopeful that some kids are ready to take on bigger roles.

At the draft, the Grizzlies traded De’Anthony Melton to the Philadelphia 76ers. Memphis got back Danny Green, but the real get was adding a second first-round draft pick. After draft night was over, the Grizzlies left with Jake LaRavia, David Roddy and Kennedy Chandler. The team hopes all three will eventually be rotation players.

Free agency was a similar mixed big. The team re-signed Tyus Jones. That was big, as Jones is a critical player being the backup to Ja Morant. But the Grizzlies lost do-everything forward Kyle Anderson. That one could come back to hurt them given some questions in the frontcourt.

Most importantly, Memphis got Morant to ink a five-year, max contract extension. Crucially, that is a full five-year deal without a player option on the end. The Grizzlies have their superstar and he’s in Memphis for the long haul.

The moves around the rotation leave the roster feeling a bit incomplete. Jaren Jackson Jr. will miss the beginning of the season, adding to that incomplete feel. Last year’s first rounder Ziaire Williams will be asked to do more this season, while the Grizzlies hope one of LaRavia or Roddy is ready for some rotation minutes right away. A bounce-back season from Brandon Clarke will also go a long way towards helping replace Jackson’s production, along with what was lost with Anderson leaving.

Because the rest of the Western Conference is so strong, and Memphis will be missing Jackson for a while, the Grizzlies might take a bit of a step back this season. But that’s not the end of the world. They’re still away ahead of schedule and they’ve got a lot of flexibility to keep adding in the future.

 

New Orleans Pelicans

Additions: Dyson Daniels (2022 NBA Draft)

Subtractions: Tony Snell (unrestricted free agent), Gary Clark (unrestricted free agent), Jared Harper (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $10.5 million Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: No team had a quieter offseason than the New Orleans Pelicans. They added exactly one player to the standard roster and lost exactly one player from the standard roster. But that’s because New Orleans got a jump on the offseason at the trade deadline. Oh…and they’ve got a pretty big “addition” coming back too.

Dyson Daniels was the lone addition this offseason, and he may not see regular rotation minutes until next season at the earliest. Daniels is a combo guard with enough size to play the three, but the Pelicans rotation minutes 1-3 are basically spoken for. Look for Daniels to log a lot of development time with the Birmingham Squadron of the G League, which is good for him and a good sign of how much depth New Orleans has.

The big “addition” the Pelicans have coming is the return of Zion Williamson. After missing all of last season after a fractured foot, Williamson appears to be full-go for the start of this season. He’s arguably the best player any team has added to their rotation compared to last year.

Equally as important as Williamson being back this season is the five-year extension he signed with New Orleans. The Pels even have some protections against injuries in the deal, along with Williamson having to meet weight requirements. And if Williamson comes back and dominates like he did two seasons ago, he can qualify for Designated Player status and get a bump from 25% of the cap to 30%. It’s a win-win deal for both player and team.

New Orleans will also get a full season with C.J. McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. in the rotation. Those two, combined with Williamson, give the Pelicans a legitimately 10-deep rotation. And that’s with a few useful players in deeper reserve too.

New Orleans probably isn’t quite ready to break through to challenge the Warriors, Suns, Clippers and Nuggets at the top of the conference…yet. But if they have good health, and things mesh together well, this is probably the last year for a while that the Pelicans aren’t fighting for a spot at the top of the West.

 

San Antonio Spurs

Additions: Malaki Branham (2022 NBA Draft), Gorgui Dieng (free agency), Isaiah Roby (waivers), Jeremy Sochan (2022 NBA Draft), Blake Wesley (2022 NBA Draft), Dominick Barlow (Two-Way), Jordan Hall (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Devontae Cacok (unrestricted free agent), Jock Landale (Hawks (subsequently Suns) via trade), Dejounte Murray (Hawks via trade), Lonnie Walker IV (Lakers via free agency), D.J. Stewart Jr. (unrestricted free agent), Robert Woodard II (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $30 million in cap space, $5.4 million Room Exception (after cap space is used)

Analysis: The San Antonio Spurs appear to be finally leaning into rebuilding. At last year’s trade deadline, the Spurs traded Derrick White to the Boston Celtics, and this summer they traded Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks for three first round picks. San Antonio also let Lonnie Walker IV leave in free agency, which meant three former first-round guards left in the span of about five months.

Replacing those three? Three rookies who were selected in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft. Jeremy Sochan is the mostly highly-regarded of the three. He’s an NBA-ready defender, and a developing offensive player. Essentially, Sochan is exactly the kind of player the Spurs turn into an All-Star.

Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley both have a good deal of potential in the backcourt. Branham is more of a pure two-guard, as he’s a score-first player. Wesley has shown flashes of point-guard potential, and that’s likely where he’ll be developed initially. San Antonio doesn’t have a lot at the point guard spot beyond Tre Jones and sometimes point guard Josh Richardson.

The Spurs made a sneaky offseason pickup when they snagged Isaiah Roby off waivers after he was waived by the Oklahoma City Thunder. Roby showed signs of being rotation-level big at times with the Thunder. San Antonio can afford to give him some more minutes in what appears to be a developmental year to see if there’s really a player in there or not with Roby.

The other big move by San Antonio was to ink Keldon Johnson to a team-friendly extension. Johnson got $74 million in a semi-descending contract. If you aren’t familiar with Johnson, you will be soon. He averaged 17 points on good shooting efficiency last season. This year, he’ll likely be the centerpiece of the Spurs offense, so those scoring numbers should climb even more. Johnson is really good and more people should know it.

Finally, the Spurs, along with the Indiana Pacers, will be everyone’s favorite “third team in” on multi-team trades. San Antonio is sitting on nearly $30 million in cap space. Next offseason, the Spurs should have over $45 million in cap space. If you need to move some money to make a deal work, San Antonio should be your first call.

Spurs fans have been begging the team for the last few years to stop chasing spots at the bottom of the playoff picture or in the Play-In Tournament. The team finally seems to have agreed and has kicked off a rebuild. They’ve got some solid young talent and a ton of flexibility, both cap-wise and with future drafts picks. They might be rebuilding right now, but don’t bet on San Antonio staying down for long.

Keith SmithAugust 22, 2022

The NBA offseason is basically behind us. Despite a few big names languishing on the proverbial trade vine as the change from summer to fall approaches, rosters are largely finished.

Teams are adding camp players and angling for Affiliate Player rights to get them to their G League teams. A few notable free agents remain unsigned, but the vast majority of potential rotation players have been signed.

Now, it’s time to start looking towards the start of the 2022-23 season. With training camps opening in approximately one month, let’s start by looking back at what changes the 2022 offseason brought.

The Central Division was one in some flux last season. The Milwaukee Bucks remained title contenders, while the Chicago Bulls took a big step forward towards playoff relevancy. The Cleveland Cavaliers turned in their best post-LeBron season, while Detroit Pistons continued their rebuilding project around rookie Cade Cunningham. And the Indiana Pacers kicked off a long-awaited reset (rebuild?) and fell out of the playoff picture for the second straight season after a run of nine postseason appearances in the previous 10 years.

 

Chicago Bulls

Additions: Goran Dragic (free agency), Andre Drummond (free agency), Dalen Terry (2022 NBA Draft), Justin Lewis (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Troy Brown Jr (Lakers via free agency), Matt Thomas (unrestricted free agent), Tristan Thompson (unrestricted free agent), Tyler Cook (unrestricted free agent), Malcolm Hill (restricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $7.29 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE

Analysis:  The Bulls didn’t make many changes, but the ones they did make should be impact moves. After injuries ruined what was shaping up to Chicago’s best season in years, Arturas Karnisovas firmed up depth at some key positions.

Before we get to the additions, the Bulls key move was to re-sign All-Star Zach LaVine. Chicago and LaVine agreed to a max deal worth $215 million over five seasons. Had he stayed healthy, LaVine might have turned in an All-NBA season last year. The Bulls also re-signed Derrick Jones Jr. to a team-friendly deal for some additional forward depth behind DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Williams.

Andre Drummond gives Chicago a viable backup behind Nikola Vucevic. Ideally, with Vucevic turning 32 years old early in the season, he’ll see his minutes drop from the 33.1 per game he played last season. Drummond remains a good rebounder and solid play-finisher, so he should provide quality play when Vucevic sits.

Goran Dragic gives the Bulls incredible depth at the guard position. With Lonzo Ball’s availability after last season’s knee surgery still in question, Chicago didn’t want to be caught short at the lead guard spot. Dragic is 36 years old, but he’s still a solid shooter and scorer. On the nights when the veteran point guard doesn’t have it, Billy Donovan can lean more on Alex Caruso and last year’s second-round find Ayo Dosunmu for more minutes. Coby White also remains in the mix, but his future with the Bulls seems to be very uncertain.

Dalen Terry was a nice upside selection in the middle of the first round. He gives Chicago some size on the wing, which they lack behind their starters. This will probably be mostly a developmental year for Terry. Expect him to log plenty of time with Windy City of the G League.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Additions: Ochai Agbaji (2022 NBA Draft), Robin Lopez (free agency), Raul Neto (free agency), Ricky Rubio (free agency), Isaiah Mobley (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Moses Brown (Clippers via free agency), Ed Davis (unrestricted free agent), Rajon Rondo (unrestricted free agent), Brandon Goodwin (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $4.6 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: The Cavaliers took a major step forward in 2022. They landed in the Play-In Tournament before falling to the Brooklyn Nets and Atlanta Hawks. Despite the disappointment of not making the playoffs, the future is brighter than it’s been in a while in Cleveland.

The Cavs were in position to make the playoffs outright for a lot of the season, but some late injuries caused them to slip in the standings. Last season’s injuries at both the center spot and the point guard spot seem to have been the impetus for the team’s offseason signings.

Robin Lopez was brought in to provide depth up front. Lopez probably won’t log a lot of time unless another center is out, but he’s become adept as a “stay ready” big.

Ricky Rubio was brought back after a mid-season trade sent him away to the Indiana Pacers in exchange for Caris LeVert. Rubio was having a terrific season for Cleveland before tearing his ACL in late-December. He probably won’t return until around the holidays, but when he does, Rubio will give the Cavs terrific depth behind Darius Garland.

Until Rubio is back, Raul Neto will likely hold down the backup point guard spot. Neto is also very good at playing off-ball, so he may feature in some lineups with Garland and Rubio at times too.

Ochai Agbaji was a good flyer in the middle of the first round of the draft. Cleveland continues to look for wing depth, so Agbaji could find minutes if he plays well enough. The competition isn’t all that stout, so keep an eye on the rookie playing his way into the rotation.

The only real remaining question for Cleveland is with guard Collin Sexton. Sexton remains unsigned, and the restricted free agent and the Cavs reportedly aren’t close on a deal. Talks have remained ongoing and there’s no animosity, so hopefully this deal gets done sooner rather than later. Sexton’s scoring off the bench would be a boon to a team hoping to make a real playoff run this season.

 

Detroit Pistons

Additions: Alec Burks (trade), Jalen Duren (2022 NBA Draft trade), Jaden Ivey (2022 NBA Draft), Kevin Knox (free agency), Nerlens Noel (trade), Kemba Walker (trade), Buddy Boeheim (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Carsen Edwards (Fenerbahce via free agency), Luka Garza (unrestricted free agent), Frank Jackson (unrestricted free agent), Jamorko Pickett (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $5.5 million in cap space, $5.4 million Room Exception (after cap space is used)

Analysis: Despite having nearly $50 million in cap space available to them this offseason, the Pistons continued the rebuilding process. It was the right move for Detroit too, as taking shortcuts could have undone the progress Troy Weaver and crew have made over the last couple of years to clean up the cap sheet.

This summer’s work started at the draft. Detroit added Jaden Ivey with their own pick, and then picked up Jalen Duren by agreeing to eat Kemba Walker’s salary from the New York Knicks. Ivey should be an immediate starter alongside Cade Cunningham in the backcourt. Ivey’s scoring game should mesh nicely with Cunningham’s playmaking.

Duren might take a bit longer to join the starting lineup, but when he does, he should stick for a long time. Duren will be the athletic frontcourt weapon on both ends to finish plays for Cunningham and Ivey on offense, and to help cover for them at the rim on the other end.

The Pistons biggest move in free agency was re-signing Marvin Bagley III. While the deal was an overpay, it’s hardly a cap-crusher. Bagley played some of his best ball after landing in Detroit at the trade deadline. He’s still young enough to fit with the team’s youthful core. And Bagley fills a need for frontcourt size.

Kevin Knox was added as a low-cost flyer. Detroit has had some success with rehabbing players over the last couple of seasons. If Knox works out, the Pistons have a nice frontcourt player on a team-friendly deal. If not, Weaver can move on with nothing lost.

Walker is expected to bought out before training camp starts. Detroit has no reason to waive Walker just yet, and will exhaust any trade possibilities where Walker could be salary-matching first. Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel are in more interesting spots. Both could be nice veteran depth for a young team that is looking to take steps forward. Or either could be on the move. As long as they don’t take away too many minutes from the kids, almost anything Detroit gets out of either Burks or Noel is fine.

As for the kids, the Pistons collection features several other promising youngsters beyond the ones we already mentioned. Saddiq Bey has proven he’s a more than solid two-way player. Isaiah Stewart will be a terrific rotation piece as an energy big, at the very least.  And Detroit still hopes that Killian Hayes, Isaiah Livers and Saben Lee might pop and take their place as useful rotation players.

Sure, the Pistons didn’t make a splash in free agency. But just like sometimes the best trade is one you don’t make, the money you don’t spend is often the best too. This group is going to get another season of developing together and next summer might feature the spending spree Detroit fans have been waiting on.

 

Indiana Pacers

Additions: Bennedict Mathurin (2022 NBA Draft), Andrew Nembhard (2022 NBA Draft), Aaron Nesmith (trade), Daniel Theis (trade)

Subtractions: Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics via trade), Ricky Rubio (Cavaliers via free agency), Lance Stephenson (unrestricted free agent), T.J. Warren (Nets via trade), Duane Washington Jr. (waived), Nate Hinton (unrestricted free agent), Gabe York (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $29.6 million in cap space, $5.4 million Room Exception (after cap space is used)

Analysis: The Pacers have had a semi-quiet offseason, but not for lack of trying. And with nearly $30 million in leftover cap space, Indiana remains a team to watch leading up to the start of the season.

Indiana’s big addition was Bennedict Mathurin at the draft. Mathurin is a supremely confident wing that can shoot and score. He showed in Summer League that he should fit in perfectly as a long-time running mate for Tyrese Haliburton.

At the start of the offseason, the Pacers swapped Malcolm Brogdon to the Boston Celtics for Aaron Nesmith, Daniel Theis and a first-round pick. (Three other players were also acquired that have since been waived.) Nesmith struggled to find consistent playing time with Boston, but should have a shot at minutes in Indiana. With regular minutes, Nesmith may find the shooting rhythm that caused him to a lottery selection only a few years ago.

The Pacers biggest move was one that didn’t end up landing them the player they were chasing. Indiana gave a four-year, max offer sheet to free agent center Deandre Ayton of the Phoenix Suns. The Suns quickly matched the offer. This was one where the Pacers would have landed a nice centerpiece had Phoenix not matched, but are out nothing since the Suns did match.

Indiana did re-sign big man Jalen Smith to a team-friendly deal for $15 million over three seasons. Smith played his best basketball after joining the team at the trade deadline, and he’s got plenty of upside left. Considering the Pacers were capped at how much they could pay Smith, they did well in this re-signing.

With nearly $30 million in remaining cap space, Indiana joins the San Antonio Spurs as everyone’s favorite “third team in” to make multi-team deals work. The Pacers are also still listening to offers for veterans Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. They might be calling it a “reset” in Indiana, but it’s at least a partial rebuild. However, starting that rebuild with Haliburton and Mathurin, along with a boatload of cap space, is a pretty good spot to be in.

 

Milwaukee Bucks

Additions: Marjon Beauchamp (2022 NBA Draft), Joe Ingles (free agency), A.J. Green (Two-Way)

Subtractions: None

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts

Analysis: The Bucks are running it back and no one should blame them for it. Milwaukee lost Khris Middleton during their first-round playoff series and then bowed out to the Boston Celtics in seven games in the second round. Had Middleton been available, we might be talking about the Bucks as repeat champions.

This offseason was mostly focused on re-signing their own players. Milwaukee gave Bobby Portis slightly more than $48 million over the next four seasons. That’s more than fair value for everything Portis brings the Bucks. With Brook Lopez aging, Portis can start or handle heavy minutes as the team’s third big.

The Bucks also re-signed Jevon Carter, who should give them solid depth behind Jrue Holiday at the point guard spot. George Hill is still around, but by the time the playoffs rolled around, it seemed clear that Carter should be getting the backup lead guard minutes.

Wesley Matthews and Serge Ibaka are both also back. Matthews’ role should lessen, assuming the Bucks are healthy on the wing this year. But Matthews is still a capable 3&D wing, even if he’s starting to struggle some with the quicker players. Ibaka is the team’s fourth or fifth big. That’s a role he can capably play, especially if he’s over the back issues that plagued him last season.

Milwaukee’s main offseason addition was Joe Ingles. We may not see Ingles take the floor until after the holidays, as he’s rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered in late-January. When he does play, don’t be surprised if Ingles takes on more of a role as a 3/4 player, as opposed to the 2/3 role he’s had in his career. Ingles is strong enough to defend backup fours, and his passing should be a boon to the backup units.

Marjon Beauchamp was a bigtime upside selection at the draft. If he can make shots and defend, the Bucks will have found themselves a player. He’s probably a couple of years away from making an impact as a rotation player, so look for Beauchamp to log lots of G League time this season.

Everything is in place for the Bucks to be a title contender next season. They’ll need better injury luck, but when you start you team around Giannis Antetokounmpo, you’re in a better place than the vast majority of the NBA.

Keith SmithAugust 10, 2022

Jaylen Brown is freshly eligible for a contract extension from the Boston Celtics. Brown is halfway through the four-year, $110 million-plus extension he signed during the 2019 offseason. Now, it’s time for Brown to start thinking about his next deal.

Because Brown is in a bit of a unique spot, we’re going to break down a lot of different options here. What puts Brown in that unique spot is that he’s not coming off a Designated Rookie Extension. When Brown re-signed with Boston in the summer of 2019, he extended for four years (as opposed to five under the Designated Rookie Extension rules) and less than the full max.

First, let’s understand what Brown has left on his current deal:

  • 2022-23: $28,741,071
  • 2023-24: $30,723,214

By virtue of his own performance and Boston making a run to the 2022 NBA Finals, Brown triggered several bonus clauses that pushed his salary up. Yet, because he didn’t sign a max extension in 2019, Brown’s salary is still below the maximum amount it could be.

It’s important to note, it’s rare for an NBA contract be to renegotiated, unlike in the NFL or MLB. The circumstances to do so are rarely met, and the Celtics haven’t found themselves in that position since they inked Brown to his current deal. Long story short: Brown is playing on a slightly under-value deal, since he’s on a non-max contract.

All of the above puts Brown in an interesting spot. He’s not coming off a max deal, so his options are more varied than usual for a player of his status. Let’s dive in.

 

The Veteran Extension

Because Jaylen Brown is now two years into his original four-year extension, he’s eligible this summer to sign an extension that is three years years in length. During the 2023 offseason, Brown would be able to add four years via Veteran Extension. Because he’s not currently on a Designated Rookie Extension, Brown isn’t eligible to extend for the maximum amount possible. (At least not yet. We’ll cover that next!).

That means Brown is eligible to do a standard Veteran Extension. And therein lies the rub.

A standard veteran extension allows Brown to extend for a 20% raise off the final year of his current deal with 8% raises in the subsequent seasons. In this case, Brown is set to make $30.7 million in the 2023-24 season. That would make the three-year extension look like this:

    • 2024-25: $36,867,857
    • 2025-26: $39,817,286
    • 2026-27: $42,766,715
    • Total: Three years, $119,451,858

It’s highly unlikely Brown would sign a Veteran Extension before the 2022-23 season starts. It would combine the worst facets of being both under his market value, while also being shorter than the max years he could get in free agency or via an extension at a later point.

The four-year veteran extension looks like this:

    • 2024-25: $36,867,857
    • 2025-26: $39,817,286
    • 2026-27: $42,766,715
    • 2027-28: $45,716,144
    • Total: Four years, $165,168,002

It’s very likely the final year of that deal would be a player option, given Brown’s status as a former All-Star who is expected to make more All-Star teams in the future. That would give Brown the opportunity to get back on the market for a fourth contract before his age-31 season in 2027.

 

The Designated Veteran Extension

In order to qualify for a Designated Veteran Extension, Jaylen Brown would have to wait to sign this extension until the summer of 2023. This is because players signing a Designated Veteran Extension have to have at least seven years of service at the time the extension is signed. Brown currently has just six years of service. (A year of service isn’t tacked on until the season completes. While this is Brown’s seventh season in the NBA, he doesn’t receive credit for seven years of service until after the 2022-23 season is completed.)

There are also criteria Brown must meet to qualify for the Designated Veteran Extension. To qualify Brown would have to achieve at least one of the following:

  • Win MVP in 2022-23
  • Win Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23
  • Named to All-NBA in 2022-23

If Brown were to qualify for the Designated Veteran Extension, his salary would jump the 30% of the salary cap maximum tier and would go to the 35% of the salary cap maximum tier. We’re using a conservative projection of $143 million for the 2024-25 season. That extension would look like this:

    • 2024-25: $50,050,000
    • 2025-26: $54,054,000
    • 2026-27: $58,058,000
    • 2027-28: $62,062,000
    • 2028-29: $66,066,000
    • Total: Five years, $290,290,000

That’s 35% of the $143 million projected cap for 2024-25 with 8% raises on subsequent seasons.

As you can see, the Designated Veteran Extension is significantly more lucrative for Brown than the standard Veteran Extension. It does involve Brown betting on himself to meet the criteria, but making All-NBA isn’t really a far-fetched scenario.

 

The Designated Veteran Contract

If Brown doesn’t meet the criteria for the Designated Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023, he could still qualify to sign for 35% of the cap with a big 2023-24 season. That deal would look exactly like the one above.

In order to qualify for a Designated Veteran Contract (as opposed to an extension), Brown would have to meet one of the same criteria. The difference here would be Brown would have to qualify during the 2023-24 season.

In effect, Brown has two chances to qualify for Designated Veteran status over the next two seasons. He either makes it in 2023 and can sign a Designated Veteran Extension, or he meets the criteria in 2024 and can sign a Designated Veteran Contract.

Much like the regular Veteran Extension, if Boston is willing to commit to Brown on a Designated Veteran Extension, it’s likely the Celtics would give him a player option on the final season. In this case, that would allow Brown to hit the market again before his age-32 season in 2028.

Another note: It’s also possible (as we saw with Bradley Beal re-signing with the Washington Wizards) that a “No Trade Clause” could be added into this deal. That’s allowed because it’s a new contract. That would not be allowed to be added into an extension. As Brown would have eight years of service, and four years of service with Boston, he’d be eligible for a “No Trade Clause”. Whether he would get it or not would be a matter of negotiation.

One last thing, but it’s really, really important: The Designated Veteran Extension or Contract is only available to Brown from the Celtics. If he’s traded to another team, he’s no longer eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with that team. If Brown signed a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract, he’d also be ineligible to be traded for one year.

 

Re-signing with Boston as a free agent in 2024

Let’s say Jaylen Brown doesn’t want to commit to any sort of extension, or vice versa, Brown will be a unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

In that case, Brown is eligible for 30% of the 2024 cap. That would be:

    • 2024-25: $42,900,000
    • 2025-26: $46,332,000
    • 2026-27: $49,764,000
    • 2027-28: $53,196,000
    • 2027-28: $56,628,000
    • Total: Five years, $248,820,000

That’s 30% of the projected $143 million cap with 8% raises. Again, it’s likely a player option would be negotiated into this deal as well.

Much like with the Designated Veteran Contract, Boston and Brown could agree to add a “No Trade Clause” to a standard contract via re-signing. Again, the difference is it being a new contract vs an extension.

 

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

Let’s say Jaylen Brown doesn’t want to commit to any sort of extension with the Boston Celtics, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent, for the first time, in the summer of 2024. In this scenario, let’s say Brown is ready to leave Boston after they considered at some level trading him for Kevin Durant, Brown would be one of the best free agents to be available in years.

If Brown wanted to leave the Celtics, he’d be eligible for the same 30% of the $143 million cap in Year 1 with another team. However, that deal would be limited to four years and only 5% raises. It would look like this:

    • 2024-25: $42,900,000
    • 2025-26: $45,045,000
    • 2026-27: $47,190,000
    • 2027-28: $49,335,000
    • Total: Four years, $184,470,000

Again, expect that final season to have a player option. There would probably also be the maximum 15% trade bonus included here as well. Free agents rarely leave their incumbent team without getting incentives beyond just salary in the deal with the new club.

Not nearly as lucrative as the Designated Veteran Extension amount with Boston, of course, but it also falls short of what Brown could get from the Celtics simply by re-signing. Even comparing only the first four seasons, Brown would be giving up about $7.7 million by leaving the Celtics. But it’s really that potential fifth year and the extra $64 million that makes the difference.

 

Extending with another team after being traded

If the Boston Celtics were to trade Jaylen Brown, his new team would likely want him to stick around long-term, ideally by getting him to ink an extension. In this case, nothing changes from the initial Veteran Extension options we laid out as far as the total salary goes. As a refresher, here’s what that Veteran Extension would look like:

    • 2024-25: $36,867,857
    • 2025-26: $39,817,286
    • 2026-27: $42,766,715
    • 2027-28: $45,716,144
    • Total: Four years, $165,168,002

However, there are some notable differences!

First, Brown would have to wait for six months after being traded to sign a Veteran Extension with a new team. This is because he’d be extending for more than is allowable under the extend and trade rules. In addition, Brown would then be ineligible to be traded for six months after inking such an extension.

Also, and this one is really, really important (again!): Brown would not be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with his new team. Those deals are reserved for players that were drafted by their team or acquired while still on their Rookie Scale contracts. As Brown would have been traded too late to qualify in this scenario, he’s ineligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with any team but Boston.

 

Summary

Whether he’s traded or not, it makes little to no sense for Jaylen Brown to sign a Veteran Extension either this season or next. Here’s what Brown would give up in each scenario:

  • Veteran Extension vs 35% Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with Boston: $125 million-plus
  • Veteran Extension vs 30% max re-signing with Boston (or re-signing): $83.6 million-plus
  • Veteran Extension vs 30% max signing with another team: $19.3 million-plus

There is little chance Brown would leave that much money, and flexibility, on the table to ink a standard Veteran Extension in the next year or two. Nor should that be the expectation of him.

Because Brown signed for less than the max in his original deal, and the cap is continuing to rise, he’s highly likely to forgo signing anything this offseason. Next offseason might be a different story.

Assuming Brown remains with the Celtics, both sides could agree to a Designated Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023, if he qualifies that season.  It’s not a reach, as Brown is coming off a season where he averaged 23.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game in the regular season prior to a very productive run to the 2022 NBA Finals.

If Brown doesn’t qualify for a Designated Veteran Extension in 2023, then he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024. He may qualify for the Designated Veteran Contract by virtue of a big 2023-24 season. If not, he’ll then look to cash in with the Celtics on a standard 30% max deal, or he could give up some money and move to a new team.

This offseason isn’t the time for Boston fans to worry about Jaylen Brown not extending. It simply doesn’t make any financial sense for a player of his ability. But if Brown makes All-NBA (or wins MVP or DPOY) in 2023 and we’re still waiting on an extension a year from now, it’s fair to get a little nervous if you’re a Celtics fan. That would mean Brown is passing on the largest contract he can possibly get.

If Brown is eligible and passes on signing a Designated Veteran Extension in 2023, it probably makes sense for Boston to consider trading Brown before he could walk for nothing in the summer of 2024. At that point, the confidence level he wants to remain with the Celtics would have to be fairly low, as no one passes up the so-called “supermax extension” when it’s offered.

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