NFC West Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 13, 2023

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Arizona Cardinals

2023 Cap Space: $16M
Rostered Players: 46
Draft Pick: #3

It appears C Rodney Hudson is retiring, and WR DeAndre Hopkins is on the trade block. With a new coaching staff and GM on the way, it appears Arizona is set on loading up draft capital and trying to rebuild this thing on the fly as quickly as possible (while paying their QB1 $48M per year).

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Marquise Brown (WR, 25)
Holds a fully guaranteed $13.4M 5th-year option in 2023, could be eyeing the 3 year, $60M extensions Mike Williams & Chris Godwin bagged last year.

Bubble Candidate

J.J. Watt (DE, 34) & Rodney Hudson (C, 34)
The Cardinals have already restructured these contracts to set them up for Post 6/1 retirements/releases. Watt will carry a $3.48M cap hit until 6/1 after which the Cardinals will take on dead hits of $2.4M for 2023, $4.8M for 2024. Hudson will carry a $3.8M cap hit until 6/1, after which the Cardinals will take on dead hits of $1.76M for 2023, $3.52M for 2024.

Robbie Anderson (WR, 30)
Hopkins on the trade block might make the Cardinals think twice here, but with $12M to be saved, it seems very likely they get out of this contract regardless.

Los Angeles Rams

2023 Cap Space: -$11M
Rostered Players: 50
Draft Pick: #6, traded to DET

The most important question for the Rams this offseason pertains to the coach: Will he be back? If the answer is no, look for a domino effect of change. If yes, 2023 might simply be about getting healthy, and spending $100M on a new offensive line.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Matt Gay (K, 28)
Yep, we’re talking kickers here. The offense sputtered this season, and with Stafford’s health still in question, the Rams might as well keep a reliable kicker around for scoring purposes. Top 10 kicker pay ranges from $4.1M - $6M per year.

Bubble Candidate

Sean McVay (HC, 36)
Until we know, we know nothing about this team’s offseason.

Jalen Ramsey (CB, 28)
Ramsey has started to hint that his time in LA could be closing. $12.5M of his $17M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, but none of the 2 years, $38M thereafter is. The Rams could be pining for a 2023 1st round pick here, so an early trade would leave $19.6M of dead cap on their table, freeing up $5.6M of space.

San Francisco 49ers

2023 Cap Space: $14M
Rostered Players: 33
Draft Pick: TBD, traded to DEN

This is a loaded, dynamic roster that has proven for back to back to back years now that it can plug and play an able bodied QB into it and be successful. And yet, the QB1 position is still the biggest question mark heading into 2023.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Nick Bosa (DE, 25)
Bosa is set to play out a fully guaranteed $17.8M 5th-year option in 2023, but that’s certain to be ripped up in favor of a massive extension. He projects to a 4 year, $106M contract in our system, but T.J. Watt’s $112M deal is a realistic floor here.

Bubble Candidate

Arik Armstead (DE, 30)
Still a fine player, and the dead cap doesn’t offer a ton of wiggle room, but his $24.3M cap hit is a lot to ask for a top contending team. A Post 6/1 release designation offers $16.7M of cap savings to SF next season.

Seattle Seahawks

2023 Cap Space: $47M
Rostered Players: 34
Draft Pick: #5 (from DEN), #20

Life without Russ ain’t half bad. Don’t let the cap space fool you, as the Seahawks don’t have a QB1 under contract for 2023 as of yet, and a franchise tag for Geno Smith would eat up about 75% of that $47M figure. This will be an attractive landing spot for free agents this spring, and Seattle will be hunting (and drafting) for pass rushers.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Uchenna Nwosu (LB, 27)
Posted a career year across the board and has the makings for a long career in Seattle. His cap hit jumps from $6.3M to $12.7M next season, so a multi-year extension can work for both parties here.

Geno Smith (QB, 32)
This Cinderella story will continue for at least 1 more season. Will it be a $30M+ franchise tag, or a short term extension? If it’s the latter, mathematically speaking, Geno Smith just played himself a $40M season. Will he garner that on the open market? Not likely. But, like Daniel Jones, something at or above $30M wouldn’t surprise us.

Bubble Candidate

Noah Fant (TE, 26)
Acquired in the Russell Wilson trade, Fant slipped down the depth chart as the year went along. His $6.85M 5th-year option salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, so this is a trade scenario only.

arizona cardinals los angeles rams san francisco 49ers seattle seahawks

NFL Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 13, 2023

Spotrac's NFL Offseason Series continues with divisional breakdowns of team cap space, notable free agents, extension candidates, and potential roster bubble players.

AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

AFC East Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 12, 2023

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Buffalo Bills

2023 Cap Space: -$6.4M
Rostered Players: 37
Draft Pick: TBD

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, & Von Miller currently account for $89.4M of cap next season. Restructures will reduce that mightly, opening up room to explore a few upgrades on the O-Line, keep or replace their safeties, and make a decision on Tremaine Edmunds.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Ed Oliver (DT, 26)
The Bills were hoping to see a full breakout from Oliver in 2022, but the production per game pretty much aligned with 2021 - above average, but not quite elite. He projects to Dalvin Tomlinson’s $10.5M per year deal in our system.

Tremaine Edmunds (ILB, 24)
Edmunds finished his 5 year rookie contract with 565 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, & 5 interceptions. He’s also the vocal leader of this Bills’ defense, and should have done enough to warrant a second contract in Buffalo - as long as the price is right. He doesn’t have the resume to warrant a top of the market deal (approaching $20M per year), but something in the 4 year, $44M range should work for both here.

Bubble Candidate

A.J. Epenesa (DE, 25)
This one just hasn’t hit for Buffalo. Epensea holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.4M contract, and the Bills would do well to find a trade partner, free up the cap space, and add a draft asset if possible.

Tim Settle (DT, 26)
Settle’s $4.9M cap hit for 2023 isn’t daunting, but as a role player (and an area where Buffalo will certainly be looking to upgrade), taking the $2.2M savings here makes sense.

Miami Dolphins

2023 Cap Space: -$9M
Rostered Players: 36
Draft Pick: TBD

This should have been the offseason we all discussed the big extension for QB Tua Tagovailoa, but his concussion history has to have paused that conversation indefinitely. In fact, bringing in a viable QB1a might be the big move this March.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Christian Wilkins (DE, 27)
The former #13 overall pick has been highly effective the past two seasons, and enters 2023 with a fully guaranteed $10.7M 5th year option salary. His production steers much more towards the run stop than the pass rush, which could temper the price tag for his second contract, though he still projects to a 4 year, $60M deal in our system.

Robert Hunt (G, 27)
Has flourished in this new explosive offensive style, and seems the perfect fit for Mike McDaniels going forward. He’s due a non-guaranteed $1.7M in the final year of his rookie deal, and projects to a 4 year, $34M contract in our system - though his ability to play multiple positions on the O-Line could increase that value quickly.

Bubble Candidate

Keion Crossen (CB, 27)
Crossen’s 3 year free agent contract was structured with 1 year of guarantees. The Dolphins can free up $3.1M of cap by moving on this March.

New England Patriots

2023 Cap Space: $44M
Rostered Players: 45
Draft Pick: #14

The Patriots enter 2023 with half of their wide receivers, running backs, and offensive line slated for free agency. It’s a good opportunity to lock in a new coordinator, and build quickly around that new system. If 2021 Mac Jones can find his way back, they’ll be back in the thick of thing soon.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Josh Uche (LB, 25)
The #60 overall pick back in 2020 enters a contract year next season, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.3M. Uche’s 2022 production (11.5 sacks, 27 tackles, 2 forced fumbles) puts him on track to garner (possibly even replace) teammate Matt Judon’s 4 year, $54.5M deal.

Bubble Candidate

Kendrick Bourne (WR, 27)
For some reason, Bourne’s targets/usage were severely limited in his first two seasons with the Patriots. If the plan is to bring back Jakobi Meyers and possibly another veteran pass catcher this spring, the $5.5M to be saved here would be useful.

New York Jets

2023 Cap Space: $8M
Rostered Players: 45
Draft Pick: #13

The Jets faltered down the stretch, as key injuries and a lack of consistent QB play wound up being their achilles heel. They’ll be one of the teams rumored to swing big for an NFL ready QB1 this March, with the likes of Garoppolo, Carr, Rodgers, Brady all in play.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Quinnen Williams (DL, 25)
Williams finally broke out in 2022, to the tune of 12 sacks, 51 tackles, and 2 forced fumbles across 15 games. He’s an $18M player in our system right now, but new deals for Jeffrey Simmons, Chris Jones, etc.. could ramp this defensive tackle market up, pushing him (well) north of the $20M mark when it’s said and done.

Bubble Candidate

Zach Wilson (QB, 23)
Wilson is owed a fully guaranteed $9.3M over the next 2 seasons, plus an available 5th year option for 2025, but he may have to earn that elsewhere. An up and down 2022 culminated with a veritable benching down the stretch, putting his spot on the roster in peril. A Post June 1st trade can free up $3.85M of cap.

Corey Davis (WR, 28)
Davis enters a contract year in 2023, after seeing action in just 21 games over his first two seasons in NY. Moving on can free up a much needed $10.5M this offseason.

buffalo bills miami dolphins new england patriots new york jets

NFC East Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 12, 2023

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Dallas Cowboys

2023 Cap Space: $5.2M
Rostered Players: 43
Draft Pick: TBD

It’s an offseason of weapon decisions for Jerry, with CeeDee Lamb ready for an extension, Dalton Schultz & Tony Pollard pending free agents, and Zeke Elliott in a contract nobody else in America would want him in.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

CeeDee Lamb (WR, 24)
Lamb is now extension eligible for the first time in his career, fresh off his best season to date (107 receptions, 1,359 yards, 9 TDs). He’s a 4 year, $90M player in our system, but A.J. Brown’s $25M per year is certainly within reason.

Trevon Diggs (CB, 25)
Expecting another 11 INT season was never reasonable, but Diggs’ 2022 looked a lot like his 2020 rookie campaign (50 tackles, 3 picks). If he was a $20M player for one season, and a $12M player for 2 - let’s call it 4 years, $56M right now.

Bubble Candidate

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, 27)
Despite 22 rushing TDs over the past two seasons, most of the metrics surrounding Elliott have declined, including a career low 3.8 yards per attempt in 2022. The contract holds 4 years, $52.9M remaining, but there are no early guarantees or bonuses built in from here out. A Pre June 1st release leaves behind $11.86M of dead cap, freeing up $4.86M.

Tyron Smith (OT, 32)
Smith missed 14 games this season, and relinquished his left tackle spot to Tyler Smith upon return. He enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $13.6M ($17.6M cap figure). Moving on frees up $9.5M of space.

New York Giants

2023 Cap Space: $55M
Rostered Players: 40
Draft Pick: TBD

QB Daniel Jones, RB Saquon Barkley, and literally every pass catching weapon remain up in the air for 2023. Let’s start there this offseason.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Andrew Thomas (LT, 23)
He’s gotten better every year, finishing 2022 as the 3rd highest graded offensive tackle according to PFF, and his now extension eligible for the first time. The #4 overall pick from 2020 holds a fully guaranteed 1 year, $5M, plus a 5th-year option in 2024, and projects to a 5 year, $107M extension in our system.

Dexter Lawrence (DT, 26)
Lawrence enters the 5th-year option salary of his rookie deal, set to earn a fully guaranteed $12.4M in 2023. He put together his most productive season by far in 2022, finishing with 7.5 sacks, 68 tackles, and 2 forced fumbles. He projects to a 4 year, $56M extension in our system.

Bubble Candidate

Kenny Golladay (WR, 29)
This one’s messy, as Golladay has a fully guaranteed $4.5M roster bonus due March 17th. The relationship has gone so poorly, it might still make sense for the Giants to pay it and cut him loose anyway, taking on a $14.7M dead cap hit, saving $6.7M in 2023.

Philadelphia Eagles

2023 Cap Space: $10M
Rostered Players: 43
Draft Pick: #10 (from NO, TBD

The Eagles have a slew of defensive starters to retain or replace, and a QB1 ready for an extension. There’s a trade or 6 in there as well if we know this front office.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Jalen Hurts (QB, 24)
The Eagles aggressively expanded this roster to put Jalen Hurts’ future on notice. He passed every test, late season injury notwithstanding, and now finds himself extension-eligible for the first time. The 2020 2nd rounder enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.4M. He projects to a 6 year, $265M extension in our system.

Bubble Candidate

Darius Slay (CB, 32)
This one won’t be popular, as Slay is still an upper echelon defensive player, but even the best teams in football can’t keep everyone, and Slay is set to count $26.1M against the cap in 2023. The issue? He already holds $21.2M of dead cap against that figure, so it’s possible a standard contract restructure (or a small extension) actually work better for both business and football purposes. 

Washington Commanders

2023 Cap Space: $11.5M
Rostered Players: 56
Draft Pick: 16

The Commanders are going back to the well at the QB position again, but the rest of the roster appears to be in pretty decent shape, as is evident by 50+ players under contract right now.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Montez Sweat (EDGE, 26)
Enters a contract year in 2023, including a fully guaranteed $11.5M option salary. He posted 8 sacks & 45 tackles in 22, and projects to a 4 year, $66M contract in our system.

Da'Ron Payne (DL, 25)
Payne is slated for unrestricted free agency this March, but there appears to be mutual interest to keep this relationship together long-term. He’s consistently produced around 60 tackles per season, but added a new wrinkle to his game in 2022 - 11.5 sacks. The new found production lifts him to a 5 year, $97M valuation in our system.

Bubble Candidate

Carson Wentz (QB, 30)
Wentz has a $5M roster bonus due March 17th. The Commanders will free up $26.1M of cap by releasing him before that.

Logan Thomas (TE, 31)
None of the final 2 years, $13.5M remaining on Thomas’ contract is fully guaranteed, and the Commanders can free up $5.25M of space by moving on this March.

dallas cowboys new york giants philadelphia eagles washington commanders

Rumored NFL Breakups

Michael GinnittiJanuary 12, 2023

QB Derek Carr

The Raiders made the decision to remove Derek Carr from their 2023 roster about a month ago. Now the only remaining question is, will it be via trade or outright release? Carr signed a 3 year, $121.5M extension this past April, but there was a clear and defined out after 2023. That out occurs on February 15th, when his $32.9M salary for 2023 & $7.5M of his 2024 salary become fully guaranteed (both were guaranteed for injury at signing, hence the benching).

So the Raiders have a month to find a trade partner for Carr, who, with a full no trade clause, will be fully involved in that process. It’s risky business for Las Vegas, because any trade agreed to now can’t be officially processed until March 15th - so it’s conceivable that a team backs out at the last minute, leaving the Raiders with $40.4M of guarantees with a QB they no longer want.

Should this trade happen, Carr will leave behind just $5.625M of dead cap to Las Vegas, bringing a 3 year, $116.3M contract with him to a new team.

If no trade transpires, Carr will be released prior to February 15th, leaving behind that same $5.625M dead cap hit to LV. He’ll be free to sign with a new team immediately, an advantage over the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, etc…

WR DeAndre Hopkins

The Cardinals have publicly announced that they’ll be seeking a trade for 30 year old WR DeAndre Hopkins, despite a productive return to the lineup after serving his 6 game PED suspension this past season.

The Cardinals have an offensive line and much of their defense to improve this offseason, so adding draft capital by moving on from Hopkins makes sense, even if it takes their top weapon out of the mix.

Financially speaking, DeAndre Hopkins holds a 2 year, $34.3M contract, with nothing fully guaranteed, and no early offseason roster bonuses to have to work around. The timing of this move will be interesting, as the contract carries $22.6M of dead cap that must remain with Arizona. If the trade is processed before June 1st, all $22.6M must hit the 2023 salary cap (clearing $8.15M of space). If the move happens after 6/1, $11.3M hits in 2023, and another $11.3M in 2024 - saving $19.45M of cap space for the upcoming season.

While the latter seems the better play, keep in mind that a trade after June 1st means no 2023 draft picks can be involved in this transaction.

WR Michael Thomas

The Saints and Michael Thomas agreed to a somewhat unique contract restructure before the end of the regular season. The move lowered his 2023 base salary from $15.5M down to a minimum $1.165M. Additionally, a $31.755M roster bonus was added in 2024 (due early March), while a $902,941 signing bonus was paid out to him immediately.

The path forward here isn’t entirely clear, but it seems likely that the Saints threw Thomas a good faith gesture signing bonus with the intention of designating him a Post June 1st release this March. They’ll carry his $14.1M cap hit until 6/1, after which he’ll leave behind $11.9M of dead cap in 2023, and another $14.1M in 2024. The Saints will pick up $2.1M of cap savings on June 2nd. Thomas will be free to sign elsewhere as soon as the Post 6/1 designation is announced (March). 

WR Brandin Cooks

Cooks started saying his goodbyes before the Texans’ Week 18 game - so it’s safe to say he’s demanding a move out of Houston this offseason. He holds a 2 year, $35M contract, including a fully guaranteed $18M salary for 2023.

It’s likely a new team will push to restructure (possibly even extend) the contract once acquired, but initially speaking Cooks will bring cap hits of $18.5M in 2023, $16.5M in 2024, leaving behind $16.2M of dead cap with Houston ($10M saved).

C Rodney Hudson

The Cardinals and Hudson agreed to a contract restructure this week that lowered his 2023 base salary from $8.25M to $2.05M. Generally speaking, this is a bat signal that one of two things is happening: the team is going to designate that player a Post June 1st release, carry the contract until that date, then release the player to maximize cap savings. Or, the player is planning to retire, but the team won’t process that paperwork until after June 1st, for the same cap reasoning.

So what are the cap numbers we’re dealing with here? Hudson holds $5.28M of dead cap against a $3.81M cap hit right now. Arizona will carry that $3.81M figure until June 1st, then process either an outright release or retirement, leaving behind $1.76M of dead cap for 2023, and another $3.5M in 2024.

HC Sean Payton

The 59-year-old has been tied to every opening from Carolina midseason, through and including Arizona this past week. Will an early playoff exit bring the Cowboys back into this conversation as well?

Payton signed a 5 year extension with the Saints back in 2019, locking him up through the 2024 season (at least). This means New Orleans owns the rights to Payton, and any team looking to hire him will need to agree to compensation terms in order to do so.

How prevalent are coach trades in the NFL? Not much…but here are a few doozies:

The Bucs acquired Jon Gruden from the Raiders (2002)
Tampa Bay gave up 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks, & $8M cash for Gruden. Both teams met in the 2003 Super Bowl, with the Bucs winning 48-21.

The Patriots acquired Bill Belichick from the Jets (2000)
The Patriots acquired the future HOF plus a 5th & 5th round pick in exchange for 1st, 4th, & 7th round picks to the Jets. The rest is literally history.

The Jets acquired Bill Parcells from the Patriots (1997)
Before the Belichick saga bore out, the two teams battled over Tuna Parcells. After a few hard ball moves, the two sides agreed to a compensation package 1st, 2nd, 3rd, & 4th round picks + $300,000 donated to New England’s charities of choice.

derek carr rodney hudson brandin cooks michael thomas deandre hopkins

The Highest Paid NFL Players & the Playoffs

Michael GinnittiJanuary 12, 2023

We’ve represented 14 NFL position groups here, showing the highest average paid player at each for the 2022 season. Half of them made the postseason. Half of them didn’t, including Aaron Rodgers and his historic $50.27M AAV. Derwin James was the only defensive player in this exercise to make the playoffs.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (GB, $50.27M)

The Packers QB had an up and down campaign, compounded by a thumb injury, but faltered in Week 18 when the team needed him most. His future is once again up in the air, despite another $144M on the books over the next 4 seasons (including $59.5M for 2023). Complete 2022 Rankings

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey (SF, $16.015M)

McCaffrey became a vital piece to the 49ers puzzle as they continued to lose QBs throughout the 2022 season. He’s a slam dunk fit for Kyle Shanahan’s creative offense, and holds 3 years, $36M non-guaranteed remaining on his contract. Look for San Francisco to restructure that a bit this offseason to work better for both sides. Complete 2022 Rankings

Fullback

Kyle Juszczyk (SF, $5.4M)

Still a Top 2 or 3 fullback in all of football, and obviously a huge player of importance in Shanahan’s wide open creative scheme. He holds 3 years, $17.75M on his contract, with a partial guarantee for 2023 that should keep him around for at least 1 more season.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (MIA, $30M)

The Dolphins sneaked into the postseason with a 3rd string quarterback, but Hill certainly did his part to get them there in 2022 (117 grabs, 1,687 yards, 7 TD). The 28 year old has 4 years, $113M remaining on his contract, including $45M guaranteed through 2024.

Tight End

Darren Waller (LV, $17M)

The 6-11 Raiders were one of the more disappointing teams of 2022, and their QB1 is about to pay the price for it. Waller’s season was limited to 9 games, putting him at just 20 games played over the past two seasons. Contractually, he’s mostly guaranteed through 2023, with 3 years, $40M non-guaranteed to go thereafter.

Offensive Lineman

Trent Williams (SF, $23.01M)

Williams was once again the top-rated offensive tackle according to PFF - this time by more than 3 full points. The 34-year-old is half-guaranteed through 2023 right now, with the remaining set to lock in on April 1st. After that, it’s a non-guaranteed 3 years, $77.25M.

Defensive Lineman

Aaron Donald (LAR, $31.6M)

After 4 straight seasons without missing a game, Donald’s 2022 was cut down to 11 appearances due to an ankle problem. His $13.5M salary for 2023 + $5M of 2024 compensation becomes fully guaranteed this March 17th and it’s fairly safe to assume that the next 2 years, $63.5M are his, if he wants to continue his career that long.

Edge Defender

T.J. Watt (PIT, $28M)

Watt saw action in only 9 games this season, and there’s an argument to be made that the Steelers might be in the postseason if he had played a few more. His $20M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, but the 2 years, $42.1M remaining after that is not.

Interior Linebacker

Shaquille Leonard (IND, $19.7M)

Leonard saw action in only 3 games thanks to season ending back surgery. It’s notable that this was round two of this injury, as he suffered a setback trying to rehab the initial ailment. Contractually, Leonard is fully guaranteed at $15.7M through the 2023 season, but the 3 years, $55.35M thereafter has no early stability. 

Cornerback

Jaire Alexander (GB, $21M)

Alexander picked off a career-high 5 passes this season, seeing action in 16 of the Packers 17 matches. His deal contains 4 years, $67M left on it, but the $30M signing bonus he received last May was the only early guarantee built into this contract. He’s year to year from here out.

Safety

Derwin James (LAC, $19.1M)

James has now posted basically identical back-to-back seasons in LA, and is a big reason the Chargers find themselves as the 5 seed. His contract contains 4 years, $61M remaining on it, including $14M fully guaranteed this year, and a partial guarantee for 2024. 

Kicker

Justin Tucker (BAL, $6M)

Tucker was handed a 4 year, $24M extension just before the start of the 2022 season, that includes $17.5M guaranteed. Statistically speaking he had his worst season in 8 years, making only 86% of his field goals, 97% of his PATs - but his 43 attempts were a career high. He’s locked in through 2024 at a combined $10.75M.

Punter

Michael Dickson (SEA, $3.6M

Dickson signed a 4 year, $14.7M extension before the 2021 season, and 2022 was his last year containing full guarantees. He’s on a 3 year, $7.5M non-guaranteed deal from here out.

Long Snapper

Charley Hughlett (CLE, $1.4M)

Hughlett signed his 2nd contract extension in Cleveland this past October, but it holds no future guarantees. It’s a 4 year, $4.93M year to year deal from here out.

NFC South Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 09, 2023

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Atlanta Falcons

2023 Cap Space: $56M
Rostered Players: 55
Draft Pick: #8

Atlanta held their own longer than most anticipated, but lacked depth defensively and faced a few notable injuries on the offensive side of the ball down the stretch. Will Desmond Ridder be given another full season to win the QB1 gig, or is this offseason and the #8 pick about upgrading the position?

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Chris Lindstrom (G, 26)
The top rated guard in all of football according to PFF heads toward a contract year, with a fully guaranteed $13.2M option salary in tow. He’s a $20.5M player in our system right now.

Matt Hennessy (C/G, 26)

With a young QB likely taking over the reins full time, the Falcons should be thinking long-term with an offensive lineman who can produce. Hennessy, Lindstrom, and free agent RT Kaleb McGary could all see massive contracts to be that brick wall in front of Atlanta’s next QB for the foreseeable future.

Bubble Candidate

Marcus Mariota (QB, 29)

Mariota held the fort down for a minute, but faced injury and a weakened roster down the stretch. His cap hit jumps from $4.25M to $14.5M, and if he’s no longer the QB1, Atlanta will certainly opt for the $12M to be saved here.

Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, 31)
He’ll be 32 come the start of the 2023 season, but he still holds value within this offense. Tyler Allgeier has deservedly taken a number of his attempts away from him, but there’s at least a change the Falcons take on the $4.25M to be saved with a Post 6/1 trade/release.

Carolina Panthers

2023 Cap Space: -$4.6M
Rostered Players: 45
Draft Pick: #9

The Falcons being directly in front of the Panthers in this draft poses a problem, but owner David Tepper hasn’t been shying about throwing money and assets around haphazardly to get what he wants. Restructures for DJ Moore, Taylor Moton, & Shaq Thompson will free up significant cap space for use this March.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Brian Burns (DE, 25)

If the Panthers don’t find a solution to their lackluster offense, trading Burns for a boatload of picks could be a way for them to rebuild things on the fly. They chose not to do that at the deadline, so he’s a bonafide extension candidate heading into 2023. Statistically though, Burns has been a bit of a one-trick pony, posting outstanding sack numbers, but falling in quite a bit lower in areas of tackles, hurries, assists, etc…This tempers his mathematical calculation near $18M, though Maxx Crosby’s $23.5M has to be an early target.

Shaq Thompson (LB, 29)

Enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $13.1M but with a $24.4M cap figure. He’s done enough to warrant another contract in Carolina, and doing so will put a little extra coin in his pocket, and drop that cap number significantly.

Derrick Brown (DT, 25)
The former #7 overall pick isn’t filling up the stat board, but he’s become a roadblock in the center of this Panthers’ defense. He became extension eligible for the first time this offseason, and D.J. Reader’s $13.25M deal in Cincinnati seems a likely target.

Bubble Candidate

Damien Wilson (LB, 29)
The Panthers actually have a bit of a surplus at the linebacker position, so picking up an extra $3.6M of cap space here makes sense.

New Orleans Saints

2023 Cap Space: -$53M
Rostered Players: 44
Draft Pick: #10, traded to PHI

This time last year they were $100M in the hole, so consider this a healthy offseason for New Orleans. On paper, this looks like a roster set for MAJOR overhaul in the coming months.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Carl Granderson (DE, 26)
Filled in admirably for Marcus Davenport, and is set to earn $4M in 2023 ($4.1M cap hit). A long-term deal for Granderson wouldn’t even approach what Davenport is set to demand on the open market.

Bubble Candidate

Andrus Peat (G, 29)

Peat holds 2 years, $23M left on his deal, including an $18.3M cap hit in 2023. Designating him a Post 6/1 release can free up $11.8M.

Jameis Winston (QB, 29)

Winston couldn’t win the QB1 job back from Andy Dalton this year, putting his $15.6M cap hit on serious notice. $5.8M of his 2023 salary locks on March 17th, so this will be an early release, freeing up $4.4M ($12.8M if designated Post 6/1)

Michael Thomas (WR, 29)
The Saints already restructured his deal to prime it for release, handing him a near $1M signing bonus for his troubles. New Orleans will carry his contract until June 2nd, then free up $2.1M of cap with a release.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 Cap Space: -$43M
Rostered Players: 33
Draft Pick: TBD

This roster can look as bad as it can good at times, as witnessed across a wild 18 weeks in 2022. Their options going forward deserve an article of its own (coming soon), but for now let’s just say there’s major cap issues, and no current QB1.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Tristan Wirfs (RT, 24)
The Buccaneers ebb and flow this season mirrored Wirfs’ time on the field. That usually translates to a pretty easy negotiation for an agent. When we calculate his production against the Top 4 highest average paid Right Tackles in football, our math spits out a $24.7M per year contract. That would make Wirfs that highest paid offensive lineman in history by $1.5M. Obviously that seems a little aggressive, but surpassing Ryan Ramczyk’s $19.2M seems a foregone conclusion.

Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, 25)
He’s entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.6M. He projects to a 4 year, $57M extension in our system.

Mike Evans (WR, 29)
Evans will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn $14.5M ($23.7M cap hit). Tampa can lower that cap figure, keep his voided dead cap spread out, and lock in their WR1 for a few more seasons all in one fell swoop. He projects to a 4 year, $92M deal in our system.

Bubble Candidate

Devin White (LB, 24)
White’s $11.7M 5th-year option salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, but the Bucs have to at least attempt to move off of this contract. Including a draft pick or retaining some of the salary (or both) might be the best path forward here.

Cameron Brate (TE, 32)
Brate enters a contract year, set to earn a reasonable $4M ($4.9M cap hit). There’s only $2M to be saved here with an early release, but Tampa needs every dollar they can get now.

atlanta falcons carolina panthers new orleans saints tampa bay buccaneers

NFC North Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 09, 2023

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Chicago Bears

2023 Cap Space: $115M
Rostered Players: 42
Draft Pick: #1

Despite showing signs of improvement, the Bears maneuvered themselves into the #1 overall pick next April. If Justin Fields is in their future, the time to start bulking up both of the trenches is now. $100M+ of cap space helps, but losing the #33 overall pick for Chase Claypool is a tough swallow in hindsight.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Nodda at this time.

Bubble Candidate

Justin Jones (DT, 27)
Carries a $7.4M cap hit against just $2.5M of dead cap. Getting better on the D-Line is a priority this offseason.

Detroit Lions

2023 Cap Space: $18M
Rostered Players: 46
Draft Pick: #6 (from LAR), #18

Just missing the postseason will sting for a bit, but this is a team that smells blood in the NFC North, and rightfully so. With two major 1st round picks, and plenty of opportunities to restructure current deals and free up cap space, an all out offseason attack on defensive talent should already be in motion.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Jamaal Williams (RB, 27)
There’s an obvious scheme fit here, especially in that Williams’ role has been reduced to maximize his abilities. The 27-year-old posted 450 more yards than he’s ever reached in a season, scoring an historic 17 TDs on the ground in 2022. This is one offensive player the Lions shouldn’t let walk away, even if it costs them around $5M per year.

Bubble Candidate

Michael Brockers (DT, 33)
Just hasn’t found the ability to get to the QB that he flashed in LA, and there’s a healthy $10M to be freed up by moving on.

Romeo Okwara (LB, 28)
He’s seen action in only 9 games over the past two seasons, and a release can clear at least $7.5M this offseason.

Green Bay Packers

2023 Cap Space: -$15M
Rostered Players: 54
Draft Pick: #15

Already in the red, the Packers will lose another $8.7M of cap space if Aaron Rodgers is traded or retires this offseason (though a situation where he remains until June 2nd for cap purposes could be worked out). Regardless, there’s going to be a good amount of change to this roster over the next few months.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Rashan Gary (LB, 26)
He was on pace for a career year if not for a half-season missed due to a torn ACL. Combine that with a strong 2021, and it seems a lock that Gary will receive an offer at some point - though Green Bay may want to see him return to full health first. He holds a fully guaranteed $10.8M 5th year option for 2023.

Bubble Candidate

Aaron Jones (RB, 29)
There’s still juice left in this tank, but with AJ Dillon heading for an expiring contract after 2023, and Jones set to account for north of $20M next season, there’s a chance the Packers look to move on. They can free up $10.4M with an early trade/release here.

David Bakhtiari (LT, 32)
It’s never easy to give up on an All-Pro caliber left tackle in this game, but Bakhtiari’s availability has become too much of a liability for this franchise. A Pre 6/1 release frees up nearly $6M, while a Post 6/1 designation will open up over $17M later in the year.

Minnesota Vikings

2023 Cap Space: -$8M
Rostered Players: 44
Draft Pick: TBD

Things are about to get expensive for the 18th highest ranked spending team in 2022, as Justin Jefferson becomes extension eligible, and Kirk Cousins likely played himself into another extension this offseason. With the Packers sliding back to earth a bit, this is no time for Minnesota to take their foot off of the pedal.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Justin Jefferson (WR, 24)
It’s time. Jefferson amassed 324 catches, 4,825 yards, and 25 TDs in 3 seasons, and is set for one hell of a payday this offseason. He projects to a 4 year, $107M extension in our system currently.

Bubble Candidate

Adam Thielen (WR, 33)
Thielen caught 70 balls in 2022 and still showed plenty of value as a secondary option in the Vikings’ offense, but it might just be time to get younger and cheaper here. His $12M salary fully guarantees on March 17th, so an early decision needs to be made. Moving on clears $6.4M next season.

chicago bears detroit lions green bay packers minnesota vikings

AFC North Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 09, 2023

Our NFL Offseason series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Baltimore Ravens

2023 Cap Space: $40M
Rostered Players: 41
Draft Pick: TBD

$48M of cap space doesn’t look so great when you factor in a $45M exclusive franchise tag for Lamar Jackson. His status remains the single offseason story for this franchise, until it isn’t.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Lamar Jackson (QB, 26)
Will this finally be the offseason that a multi-year extension gets done? Is Lamar still seeking a fully guaranteed contract? Do the two sides even want to continue this relationship any further? All valid questions right now, but assuming all is well and money is money, Lamar projects to a 6 year, $245M extension in our system.

Kevin Zeitler (G, 33)
Zeitler will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn $6.5M on a $9.4M cap hit. A 2-year tack on at around $10M per year seems prudent.

Bubble Candidate

Chuck Clark (S, 27)
Still a strong player (especially against the run), but youngster Kyle Hamilton should be ready to take over here, and the Ravens can free up $3.64M of cap by moving on.

Cincinnati Bengals

2023 Cap Space: $48M
Rostered Players: 41
Draft Pick: TBD

Joe Burrow & Tee Higgins become extension eligible this offseason and 3/4ths of the starting secondary is slated for unrestricted free agency.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Joe Burrow (QB, 26)
Burrow is now extension eligible for the first time in his career, despite 1 year, $5.5M + a 5th year option still remaining on his rookie deal. He projects to a 6 year, $244M contract in our system, but a sniff at another Super Bowl could leave $44M per year in the dust.

Tee Higgins (WR, 24)
Higgins enters a contract season in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.8M. Despite being the clear 2nd option in this passing game, he’s found his way to a $20M projection in our system.

Bubble Candidate

Tyler Boyd (WR, 29)
Higgins’ payday may mean an early exit for Tyler Boyd, who slipped a little bit more down the depth chart in 2022. The $8.9M to be saved by moving on will certainly come in handy elsewhere, but he’s been a valuable member of this offense for 7 seasons.

Cleveland Browns

2023 Cap Space: -$9M
Rostered Players: 54
Draft Pick: #12 traded to HOU

Changes are coming to this roster (and coaching staff), but a full offseason/season for Deshaun Watson should settle the offense down a bit next season. The defense disappointed in 2022 and could be picked apart this March.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Amari Cooper (WR, 29)
Cooper did was he was brought in to do - establish himself as the true #1 passing game option week in and out. He’s not a top-tier WR anymore, and his pay should reflect that, but Cleveland can tack on a few years to his 2 year, $40M remaining, while also significantly lowering his $23M cap figure for 2023. 

Bubble Candidate

John Johnson (S, 28)
He’s still filling up the stat sheet with tackles and an occasional turnover, but this Browns secondary greatly disappointed in 2022, so a shakeup of some fashion seems imminent. Johnson will need to be designated a Post 6/1 release before March 17th to free up $9.75M of cap. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 Cap Space: $0M
Rostered Players: 52
Draft Pick: #17

The Steelers flat out over achieved this season, and were a few bounces away from earning a postseason berth at the last minute. Kenny Pickett probably did enough to get a full look in 2023, giving Pittsburgh the freedom to continue pumping capital into the offensive line and into the middle of their defense.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Alex Highsmith (LB, 26)
More than doubled his previous career production in 2022, compiling 12 sacks, 55 tackles, and 5 forced fumbles in 16 games. He enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M in the final season of his rookie contract. He projects to a 4 year, $55M contract in our system.

Bubble Candidate

William Jackson (CB, 31)
Acquired from Washington at the deadline, Jackson hit the IR before the Steelers could get a sense of his fit in their system. His $12.75M salary for 2023 is probably too rich for a ‘maybe’ situation, and Pittsburgh can free up every dollar for cap purposes by moving on.

Mitchell Trubisky (QB, 28)
With Pickett cost-controlled, Trubisky’s $8M salary ($10.6M cap hit) might not be too much of an overpay, but it’s still likely that Pittsburgh releases him out of this deal, frees up the $8M of cap, and then works to resign him to a more prudent backup contract if they desire.

baltimore ravens cincinnati bengals cleveland browns pittsburgh steelers

AFC South Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael GinnittiJanuary 09, 2023

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Houston Texans

2023 Cap Space: $39M
Rostered Players: 48
Draft Pick: #2, #12 from CLE

If the Texans are lept in this April’s draft by a team who takes the QB they should have taken, the Week 18 win against the Colts will haunt this franchise for years to come. There’s a lot of work to be done on this roster, and this still might be a year of subtracting (Cooks) before adding too much.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Tytus Howard (RT, 27)
Set to play on a fully guaranteed $13.2M 5th-year option salary in 2023, Howard has played well enough to warrant a multi-year extension. Bolstering the O-Line should be a priority with a shiny new QB coming to town soon.

Bubble Candidate

Brandin Cooks (WR, 30)
He’s already started saying his goodbyes, despite signing a 2 year, $40M extension 9 months ago. Cooks will demand a trade out of town this March, leaving behind $16.2M of dead cap to the Texans (saving $10M). He’ll bring a 2 year, $35M contract, including $18M fully guaranteed in 2023, with him to a new franchise.

Indianapolis Colts

2023 Cap Space: $19M
Rostered Players: 54
Draft Pick: #4

The Colts have a chance to package together a trade that can send them to #1, taking away the top QB in the draft from division foe Houston. Indy should be seeking out pass rushers, interior offensive linemen, and more than a few offensive weapons this offseason.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Jonathan Taylor (RB, 24)
No, it wasn’t neary the season we saw from Taylor in 2020 or 2021, but injury, coaching changes, QB changes, etc… all factored into a weird offensive season for this entire franchise. The bottom line is, this team is better with Taylor on it, and he enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non guaranteed $1.6M. Nick Chubb’s $12.2M per year deal is the floor.

Isaiah Rodgers (DB, 25)
He’s given snaps at both safety and cornerback across 3 seasons and enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. Locking in a versatile defensive back early rarely hurts teams.

Bubble Candidate

Kenny Moore (CB, 28)
We’d characterize this release “unlikely” right now, but a new coaching staff might look at the $7.4M of cap and cash to be saved differently. Stephon Gilmore’s $12M+ should also be in consideration, but he played extremely well across 2022.

Nick Foles (QB, 34)
$1.5M of Foles’ 2023 salary is fully guaranteed, which signals he’ll stick around as a backup next season - but Matt Ryan has $12M fully guaranteed. If the Colts draft a new QB this offseason, something is likely to give here.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 Cap Space: -$20M
Rostered Players: 41
Draft Pick: TBD

After a big offseason of spending, and a proven coach hire, 2022 probably went exactly as the front office hoped and planned. Now it’s about finding those last few puzzle pieces to take them into true AFC contention. Calvin Ridley is a good start, but a versatile safety and more help on the interior of the offensive line should be priority as well.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Josh Allen (LB, 26)

Allen enters a contract year in 2023, set to play out a fully guaranteed $10.8M 5th-year option salary. He’s posted back to back 7+ sack seasons, adding 4 forced fumbles into the mix in 2022. Matt Judon’s 4 year, $55M deal in New England is a solid floor here.

Bubble Candidate

Shaquill Griffin (CB, 28)

Still a solid player, but a back injury has him out indefinitely. It’s something to watch, as $4.5M of his 2023 salary is guaranteed for injury, becoming fully guaranteed on March 17th. If he passes a physical and the Jags move on, there’s $13.5M to be freed up.

Tennessee Titans

2023 Cap Space: -$24M
Rostered Players: 51
Draft Pick: 11th

Tennessee spent the 12th most cash in football this year and is currently set to be 9th in 2023. Are they too pot committed to rip this band-aid off, even if the play on the field suggests they should? Unless something falls into their lap, Ryan Tannehill is probably the Week 1 QB for this organization.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Jeffery Simmons (DL, 26)
Holds a fully guaranteed $10.7M 5th-year option salary in 2023, and should be the next defensive player to cash in big. He’s had back to back identical seasons for the Titans, but lacks the bigtime numbers that might put him in the Myles Garrett/Aaron Donald world financially. He projects to a 4 year, $86M extension in our system.

Derrick Henry (RB, 29)
Who says running backs can’t play after age 27? Henry compiled 1,936 yards from scrimmage this season. While his 6 fumbles are alarming, it seems inconceivable that Tennessee would even consider moving on right now, in which case his $16M+ cap hit for 2023 needs to be addressed. The Titans can process a simple salary conversation to lower the hit - or tack on a few seasons and restructure the contract altogether.

Bubble Candidate

Ryan Tannehill (QB, 35)

We’re required to put him here as his play has declined, and his $36.6M cap hit for 2023 isn’t healthy. The Titans can free up $17.8M of cap with an early release ($27M if Post 6/1), but if the plan is to win ball games in 2023, this won’t happen until they know they have a better option on the roster.

 

Taylor Lewan (OT, 32)

This one seems inevitable as the former #11 overall pick enters a contract year in 2023, and his entire $14.8M cap hit can be cleared via release.

 

Robert Woods (WR, 30)

Woods has a non-guaranteed 3 year, $47M remaining on his contract, so his stability is going to be limited from here out. His production aligns more with a WR3 than it does a $15M+ receiver right now, and the Titans can clear $12M with an early trade or release.

houston texans indianapolis colts jacksonville jaguars tennessee titans
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