NBA teams have signed nearly 200 players to new contracts totaling over $4 billion in new money. While that seems like a staggering figure, it’s important to note that the NBA business is as healthy as it’s ever been.

The NBA and NBPA navigated through three pandemic-impacted seasons and have come out of them better than anyone expected. The cap rose from $112.1 million for 2021-22 to $123.6 million for 2022-23.

The cap projects to continue that upward momentum. The conservative projection for 2023-24 is $133 million, with the luxury tax line set at $161 million. By as soon as the 2025-26 season, it won’t be a surprise if the cap is over $150 million.

But that’s something to look at down the line. Even though the 2022-23 season hasn’t tipped off yet, several teams are clearly preparing for the 2023 offseason already. We’re using the conservative cap projection of $133 million as we take our first look at what the landscape might look like in the summer of 2023.

(Note: 2023 standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

1. Houston Rockets - $70.1 million
2. Detroit Pistons - $62.9 million
3. Indiana Pacers - $53.1 million
4. San Antonio Spurs - $46.3 million
5. Utah Jazz - $33.4 million
6. Oklahoma City Thunder - $32 million
7. Orlando Magic - $31.7 million
8. Cleveland Cavaliers - $25.1 million
9. Memphis Grizzlies - $19.8 million
10. Charlotte Hornets - $19.7 million
11. Los Angeles Lakers - $19.1 million

11 teams project to have cap space in the summer of 2023. There’s a good chance a few others could join them too. And, of course, a few teams above could drop off this list as they continue to make roster moves.

The Rockets are looking at hitting the summer of 2023 with seven players on rookie scale contracts, Jae’Sean Tate on a team-friendly deal and another top-five draft pick. Even if Kevin Porter signs an extension, Houston will be in the mix for the most cap space in the league.

The Pistons are in a very similar boat. Six players on rookie scale deals, Marvin Bagley on a fully guaranteed deal and a likely top-10 pick. Detroit feels slightly more ready to take the next step than the Rockets (but only slightly!). That means that after a few years of collecting assets and renting out their cap space, Detroit could be a real player in free agency in 2023.

The Pacers are still sorting through their rebuild. They shipped Malcolm Brogdon off already and could do the same with Myles Turner too. That would leave Indiana without a lot of long-term salary obligations. That could make for a very quick retool of their roster, as opposed to a multi-year rebuild.

San Antonio is tearing things down almost fully. They signed Keldon Johnson to a very fair value extension. They’ve got Doug McDermott on the final year of his three-year deal at $13.75 million. Beyond that it’s basically all rookie deals. The Spurs are tanking, which has historically worked out well for them. The last two times they took this approach they ended up with David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Is Victor Wembanyama next?

Utah is in the same boat as the Spurs. This projection doesn’t factor in Donovan Mitchell being traded, but that seems likely to happen. In that case, the Jazz could be up near Rockets/Pistons territory as far as cap space goes. Cap flexibility, a ton of draft picks and some interesting young players? Sounds like a Danny Ainge rebuild is well underway in Utah.

Oklahoma City and Orlando are in the same boat. Great young talent, a few key players signed long-term and a ton of cap flexibility. They’re both on their way back up.

The final four teams are swing teams. If Cleveland re-signs Collin Sexton, they probably drop out of the cap space running. They can then stay over the cap and re-sign some key players. If they don’t re-sign Sexton, or he takes the qualifying offer, the Cavs are probably in the running to push for max cap space with another salary-clearing move.

The Grizzlies have a lot of different ways they can go, same with the Hornets. Memphis is clearly well ahead of Charlotte, because they have Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr and Desmond Bane, who are better than LaMelo Ball and question marks. But both teams could be players in 2023 free agency to add pieces around their young stars.

You might be surprised to see the Lakers land here, but with Russell Westbrook coming off the books, LA is in position to add around LeBron James (this projection reflects him either re-signing or his cap hold being retained) and Anthony Davis. There’s not much else on the books for the Lakers. If they trade Westbrook for a player signed long-term, or for a player they project to re-sign for big money, they’ll be right back in the same boat as the last couple of seasons with the Taxpayer MLE and minimums to fill out the roster.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Chicago Bulls
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Sacramento Kings

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these four teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

Brooklyn is obviously in a weird spot with the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. If both are gone, the Nets could even end up a cap space team next summer. For now, we’re going to put them here in the middle and, like everyone else, impatiently wait to see how their roster comes together.

The Bulls, Wolves and Kings are all swing teams. If they choose to move on from some of their veterans (Nikola Vucevic, D’Angelo Russell and Harrison Barnes), then they could all be cap space teams. If they retain their rights to re-sign them, or move them in deals to bring in other players, they’ll be over the cap. But all could still be far enough under the tax to use the full MLE.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks
2. Boston Celtics
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Denver Nuggets
5. Golden State Warriors
6. LA Clippers
7. Miami Heat
8. Milwaukee Bucks
9. New Orleans Pelicans
10. New York Knicks
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Phoenix Suns
13. Portland Trail Blazers
14. Toronto Raptors
15. Washington Wizards

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

Of this group, the teams that could end up with a bit more cap flexibility are Dallas, Portland, Toronto and Washington.

The Mavericks have a few key free agents, plus a couple of players on partially guaranteed contracts they could move on from. If so, they’d free up some space to make moves around Luka Doncic.

The Trail Blazers are only going to be flexible if they let Jerami Grant walk. That seems unlikely to happen, unless Portland draws a hard line at what they’ll extend Grant for. They’ll probably be right around the tax.

Toronto could potentially put themselves in position to have cap space, but that would mean moving on from Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. It’s more likely they’ll have those guys back, of have moved them in a trade, and that means the Raptors will be working around the tax line.

Washington has Bradley Beal on his massive new deal, but that’s really their only substantial long-term money. Their summer really hinges on what happens with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. If either re-signs for big money, the Wizards will be up against the tax.

As we do each year when free agency winds down, we’re going to cover the 10 worst value contracts teams signed this offseason. Full disclosure: In the opposite of the 10 Best Free Agent and Extension Values, it’s getting harder and harder to find 10 bad or even questionable contracts. More and more it trends towards a “Kind of get it, but don’t like it” thought vs a truly bad deal.

A few notes:

• Unlike the Best Values, you will see max contracts and max extensions here. Some of them are just sort of mind-boggling in terms of committed salary.
• No 2022 Rookie Scale signees will appear here. Even if we think the pick was bad, the contract is what it is with Rookie Scale deals.
• This isn’t necessarily a “worst contracts” list. That’s a different thing. We’re also limiting this to signings made during the 2022 offseason only.

Got it? On to the list!

Honorable Mentions

• Minnesota trading for Rudy Gobert: We’re already breaking the rules! This isn’t a signing of any sort, but that’s how few bad deals there were this summer. Instead, we’re covering a trade!

It’s not that the Gobert trade was really bad, especially not for this upcoming season. It was just…a lot. Five players and essentially five picks went to Utah for Gobert. A 10-for-1 deal! The Timberwolves have to hope this leads to multiple playoff appearances at least, and Finals contention at most. Otherwise, what was it all for?

• Detroit trading for Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel: The Pistons eating contracts is a great use of their cap space. Especially ones that are effectively one-year deals. But Detroit only got two second-round picks in this deal. Why is that a bad return for renting out some cap space? The Knicks HAD to do this trade to clear the cap space to sign Jalen Brunson. The Pistons should have squeezed them for more draft capital.

On to the 10 Worst Free Agent Values of the 2022 Offseason!

1. Marvin Bagley III – Detroit Pistons – three years, $37.5 million: 

Who were the Pistons bidding against here? This deal came together so quickly, that it seems like the conversation was one proposal by one side and an immediate accept from the other. Bagley played pretty good in Detroit. He may end up being a fine value at $12.5 million for each of the next three seasons. But he would have been even better value at $8-10 million for each of the next three seasons.

2. Damian Lillard – Portland Trail Blazers – two-year, $121.8 million extension: 

We’re going to hit a couple of veterans in similar boats here. Lillard gets the first nod because of the staggering amount of money this extension is for. $61 million-plus for two seasons? His age-35 and age-36 seasons no less. It’s highly respectable that Lillard wants to make it work in Portland. And, yes, the cap is going to go way up. But this deal is linked to that rise to at least some extent. It’s just staggering to think of a small guard, who has already had several injury issues, making more than $60 million at Lillard’s age in the 2026-27 season.

3. Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards – five years, $251 million: 

This one is about the money and the extras that Beal got. He now has the NBA’s only true, negotiated no-trade clause. He also has a player option on Year 5 of his new deal. Oh, and he’ll make $50 million per year too, topping out at $57 million in Year 5. This deal runs through Beal’s age-33 season. Like Lillard, it’s respectable he wants to win in Washington. And the Wizards were a little caught here, because Beal is their franchise guy. But the money wasn’t enough? Why include the no-trade clause too?

4. Anfernee Simons – Portland Trail Blazers – four years, $100 million: 

To start off with, Simons is a terrific and improving young player. He’s also still relatively unproven. Committing $25 million per season, without any sort of team protection, is a lot. The Blazers also just split up their small, score-first backcourt. Now, they’re right back in the same spot. That makes this a bit of a questionable investment when you add it all up.

5. Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trail Blazers – four years, $70 million: 

It’s apparently “pick on Portland” time here. But this Nurkic deal screams Bird Rights Trap more than any other this offseason. The Blazers had no other center on the roster. They couldn’t replace Nurkic for a similarly salaried player if he left. So, they re-signed him to a questionable contract. Prototypical Bird Rights Trap. If nothing else, this deal could (should?) have been a descending contract or the final year could (should?) have been partially guaranteed, if not fully non-guaranteed. It’s all just too much for a good, but not irreplaceable player.

6. JaVale McGee – Dallas Mavericks – three years, $17.2 million: 

We’re at the “Why so much for that veteran?” portion of the list. The good news? Dallas ended up giving McGee about $3 million less than was originally reported. The bad news? It was still a three-year deal for a 34-year-old center on a team that didn’t really need a center all that badly. The worse news? This might push Christian Wood to the bench. That’s just weird, given Dallas just traded for Wood. The worst news? McGee has a $6 million player option the third year, which comes just as the Mavs books clear up considerably for another run at free agents.

7. P.J. Tucker – Philadelphia 76ers – three years, $33 million: 

Tucker is a nice fit for Philadelphia, but a bit of an odd one. If he starts, Tobias Harris has to play the three. That kind of offsets Tucker’s impact defensively in the starting group. If he comes off the bench, Tucker isn’t really a perfect backup for Joel Embiid. And if Embiid misses time, the Sixers still need a real center to fill in for him. Finally, that $11.5 million player option in Year 3, when Tucker will be 40 years old already looks really bad.

8. Dewayne Dedmon – Miami Heat – two-years, $9 million: 

This one isn’t bad as much as it is weird. Dedmon seems like a minimum salary big man at this point. The Heat couldn’t even play him by the end of their playoff run. Omer Yurtseven might already be better as a backup for Bam Adebayo. Even with a fully non-guaranteed second season, $4.7 million for this year is a lot for Dedmon. But (there’s always a but with Miami) the Heat were lacking midrange tradable contracts. That’s something to keep an eye on when we get to trade season.

9. Mitchell Robinson – New York Knicks – four years, $60 million: 

The Knicks current front office has been great about smartly structuring contracts. Their deals generally include some level of team control on the final season, either a team option or a non-guaranteed year. Robinson’s deal has neither of those protections for New York. It is a descending deal, however, and the average salary is fine. The commitment is a bit odd though. Isaiah Hartenstein has less upside, but may be a more reliable player right now than Robinson. And New York made a decent-sized investment in signing Jericho Sims too. That’s a lot of money tied up in the center spot, even if none of it is truly bad money.

10. Lu Dort – Oklahoma City Thunder – five years, $82.5 million: 

Dort’s deal isn’t actually bad. It’s just kind of long. The last time OKC committed this long of a deal to a non-max player, they ended up waiving and stretching Kyle Singler’s weird contract. Given that the Thunder have a team option on the final year, this is more like $16 million a year over four years. That looks better. But, even then, it’s starting to be a crowded roster in Oklahoma City. And Dort only just barely cracked 40% shooting last year. Will playing time be so easy to come by in Years 2-4 of this deal? If not, that’s a lot of money for a “No-3&D” backup wing.

Final Thought

As you can probably tell by the reluctant inclusions of Dewayne Dedmon, Mitchell Robinson and Lu Dort on this list, it’s getting harder and harder to find bad contracts in the NBA. Teams have been smarter about not committing major money to non-max players. At least in free agency. Most of the questionable money comes from overpaying to keep their own players.

In fact, eight of the 10 deals we picked were re-signings. And they came in all sorts of manners. Extensions, Bird Rights Trap and just plain odd valuations made up that group of eight questionable deals. NBA teams find it hard to let go, even when they probably should.

The real takeaway here: none of these deals are truly bad. They belong in the questionable category, if even that. It seems that the truly bad overpays are now reserved for trades (and that’s before we see what happens with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Donovan Mitchell), as opposed to signings and re-signings.

As we do each year when free agency winds down, we’re going to cover the 10 best value contracts teams signed this offseason. Full disclosure: It’s getting harder and harder to trim this list to just 10. Teams have gotten increasingly better about finding good value deals in recent years.

A few notes:

• You won’t see any max contracts on here, nor max extensions. Even if you think it’s fair to pay a player $100 million per season, that’s not allowed. So, no matter how good it looks that teams got some players to ink max deals, they won’t show up here.
• No 2022 Rookie Scale signees will appear here either. Like a max deal, it’s nearly impossible to do better than teams already do on these deals.
• This isn’t necessarily a “best contracts” list. That’s a different thing. We’re also limiting this to signings made during the 2022 offseason only.

Got it? On to the list!

Honorable Mentions

• Rookie Scale Extensions: We’re going to break a rule here, but just slightly. The New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers signing Zion Williamson, Ja Morant and Darius Garland to full max extensions would be breaking the “no max contracts” rule, but there’s a wrinkle. None of these guys have a player option on their fifth year. That’s a massive win for their teams and that’s why they are included here. They now have their stars for the next five years and that’s enormous for three rapidly improving small market franchises.
• Otto Porter Jr. – Toronto Raptors: Porter’s deal is going to pay him just $6 million this season. But it’s functionally a one-year deal with Porter having a player option on Year 2. Great value, but it’s very short-term. That kept it off the list.
• Bruce Brown Jr. – Denver Nuggets: Basically, the same situation as Porter. Getting Brown for the Taxpayer MLE of roughly $6.5 million is a terrific signing for the Denver Nuggets. But it’s also functionally a one-year deal, because Brown has a player option on Year 2.

On to the 10 Best Free Agent Values of the 2022 Offseason!

1. James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers – reportedly two years, $68 million: 

The Sixers and Harden are reportedly putting the finishing touches on a deal worth roughly $68 million over two seasons. Yes, Year 2 will be a player option, but that’s all by design. Normally, a deal this short wouldn’t make the list, but Harden opted out $47.4 million to take considerably less from Philadelphia. He’ll then opt out next summer and go back up to a max or near-max deal. But it was that opt out this offseason that allowed the team to add P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. That’s basically three players for $50 million or so this season. That’s tremendous value for the Sixers.

2. Keldon Johnson – San Antonio Spurs – reportedly four-year, $80 million extension: 

When news of this one first dropped, some responses were “How much?”, but Johnson is worth every penny. $20 million average annual value (AAV) for Johnson is actually a great deal for San Antonio. Johnson averaged 17 points on 13.5 field goal attempts per game last season on 47/40/76 shooting splits. Next year, Johnson will be the face of the Spurs. Don’t be surprised when he’s a breakout player and putting up over 20 points per game on solid efficiency.

3. Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors – three years, $25.5 million: 

Looney was just the starting center on a championship team. That alone would make you think a deal for the full Non-Taxpayer MLE starting around $10.5 million was coming for Looney. Instead, Golden State got him for three years and only $19.5 million guaranteed. Looney was one of only five players to appear in all 82 games last season. He’s a good rebounder and terrific defender. Getting him for under the MLE in AAV is tremendous value for the champs.

4. Jae’Sean Tate – Houston Rockets – three years, $20.6 million: 

Tate played well enough that Houston re-signed him a year earlier than they needed to. That’s a huge win for Tate. On the Rockets side, they got great value here, as they are paying their best defender well under the MLE in AAV. And Houston has a team option on Year 3, which is also big for them. The Rockets have a roster stacked with young talent, and more picks on the way. Having flexibility to trade or get out of a deal is important. This is a true win-win contract.

1. Tie: Cody Martin – Charlotte Hornets – four years, $31.4 million: 

It’s only fitting that the twins come in tied on our list. Cody gets the ever-so-slight nod, because his deal is really a three-year, $22.7 million contract, with a fully non-guaranteed fourth year. But that $7-8 million AAV for a good 3&D wing is terrific work by the Hornets.

1. Tie: Caleb Martin – Miami Heat – three years, $20.4 million: 

Caleb Martin gets nudged slightly behind his brother, because he has a player option on Year 3. That could put the Heat in a tough spot in a couple of years. But Miami still got great value for the Taxpayer MLE amount for a player who should have played more in the Eastern Conference Finals.

6. Gary Payton II – Portland Trail Blazers – three years, $26.1 million: 

Payton cashed in being a champion with the Golden State Warriors, but he also benefitted from the champs being a bit cost-conscience this summer. When the Warriors wouldn’t pay Payton, he headed north on a really solid contract for the Blazers. Year 3 is a player option, but for the next two years Portland gets an elite perimeter defender to put with a guard group that desperately needs a defender. Payton will fit in perfectly in the three-guard rotation with Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons. And if that 36% three-point shooting holds up, Portland will look even better here.

7. Ricky Rubio – Cleveland Cavaliers – three years, $18.4 million: 

The Cavs did well to get Rubio back. He was playing great for them before tearing his ACL. Cleveland’s guard-play behind Darius Garland really fell apart after Rubio got hurt. That was a big part in the Cavaliers slipping in the standings. Rubio might not be ready to go until mid-season, but that’s fine. The Cavs will get a boost ahead of the trade deadline with an “acquisition” of sorts, just as Darius Garland might need his minutes dialed back a bit. And if Rubio can’t make it all the way back, or can’t hold up, the final year is only partially guaranteed, giving Cleveland an easy out.

8. Ivica Zubac – LA Clippers – three-year, $32.8 million extension: 

The Clippers did well to get their starting center signed to a new deal before the league year changed over. Because LA was sort of an average team last season, many may have missed just how good Zubac was. He was a nightly double-double threat, while holding down the backline of the defense. And he did so in just 24 minute per game. Look for his playing time and stats to bump up slightly, which will be good news for this year’s Clippers as a title contender.

9. Malik Monk – Sacramento Kings – two years, $19.4 million: 

This contract was a win for the Kings. Not only did a quality free agent choose Sacramento, but the Kings didn’t have to give him a player option on the second year. Sacramento needed perimeter shooting and bench scoring, and they got it in Monk for slightly less than the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That’ll be huge as they build their roster around De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis over the next two seasons.

10. Isaiah Hartenstein – New York Knicks – two years, $16 million:

Hartenstein is really good. He might even be better than Mitchell Robinson, who the Knicks paid over twice as much over the next two seasons. No matter what, New York locked down 48 quality minutes of center-play for the next two seasons. In Hartenstein, the Knicks got a big man who can defend, rebound, pass and finish. Hartenstein is also showing signs of extending his range too. For less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE, that’s tremendous value.

On Thursday, August 4, LeBron James is eligible to sign a veteran extension with the Los Angeles Lakers. Whether James will do so, or not, is a very open question. Because LeBron James will turn 38 years old this season, his next deal is going to be subject to the Over-38* rule. This is true if James signs an extension, re-signs with the Lakers as a free agent in the summer of 2023 or leaves for a new team in the summer of 2023.

At this point, because James is still in a position to command a max deal, we’re only going to entertain those as options for him moving forward. It’s unlikely he’d take less than the max, so there’s not a lot of point laying out what those scenarios look like.

Because of that, and the Over-38 rule, James is left with three real options:

• Signing an extension with the Lakers
• Playing out his deal and signing a new contract with Los Angeles in 2023 free agency
• Playing out his deal and signing a contract with another team in 2023 free agency

Extension Options

James can sign either a one-year or two-year extension with the Lakers. Here’s what those would look like:

One-Year Extension

• 2023-24: $46,698,737

Two-Year Extension

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $50,434,636
• Total: $97,133,373

It’s likely that any multi-year deal, extension or new contract, will have a player option on the final season. James has been open about his desire to retain the flexibility to play with his son Bronny in the NBA. The earliest the younger James can join the NBA is during the 2024-25 season.

In both of these options, the starting salary is 105% of James current salary for the 2022-23 season. In the two-year option, he then gets an 8% raise off that first-year salary.

New Contract with Lakers

If LeBron James lets his contract expire at the end of the upcoming season, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Lakers will have full Bird Rights for James, so they would be able to offer him a contract worth 105% of his current salary in Year 1 of a new deal. If the cap jumps enough that James’ max is more than that, then he could get up to the 35% of the cap max.

For now, we’ll stick with 105% of his current salary and build from there.

One-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737

Two-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $50,434,636
• Total: $97,133,373

Three-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $50,434,636
• 2025-26: $54,170,535
• Total: $151,303,908

As you can see, the first two options are exactly the same as the extension options. Such is life when you are already at or above the max salary.

The major difference here is the ability to offer a third year. In James’ case, it’s unclear how much that would matter, as he likely wants the flexibility to pick his spot in 2024, when his son Bronny can join the league. It’s unlikely that third-year, even at $54 million-plus would sway James.

New Contract with Another Team

It seems fairly unlikely that LeBron James will leave the Lakers this summer. But there was a point where it seemed like he would never play for the Cleveland Cavaliers again too.

Just in case James has tired of the Lakers and is ready to play somewhere else, we’ll present his options for signing with another team.

One-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737

Two-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $49,033,674
• Total: $95,732,411

Three-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $49,033,674
• 2025-26: $51,368,611
• Total: $147,101,022

By virtue of his status as a 10+ Years of Service Player, James actually qualifies for the same Year 1 salary with another team as he would with the Lakers. This only applies to players coming off a maximum salary that is at or above that year’s maximum. This allows James to get a first-year salary with a new team that is 105% of his previous salary. The new team, of course, must have $46.7 million in cap space to sign James outright in this situation, or the ability to acquire James via sign-and-trade.

The difference comes in with the raises. James can get 8% raises with the Lakers, but only 5% with another team. But, at this point in his career, $1.5 million to $4.2 million difference in total salary isn’t going to swing James either way.

If James leaves the Lakers, it won’t be about salary. Nor will the Lakers be able to overwhelm him with so much more money that staying is a no-brainer. If James leaves the Lakers, it will be because he wants to play somewhere else and for no other reason.

Summary

In other “Next Contract” pieces, the salary math has been widely varied and the options have been plentiful. Despite LeBron James still being near the top of his game, his already-max salary and his age, make his options far more limited.

No matter what James does, he’s going to give himself options for the 2024-25 season. He’s repeatedly said that playing with his son Bronny will be his priority in the season Bronny joins the league. That doesn’t mean we can rule out a two-year extension or a new two-year deal, but that second year is going to be a player option.

Don’t be surprised if August 4 comes and goes without James having signed an extension. There’s really no rush for him to do so. Keeping his options open continues to put pressure on the Lakers to make moves to be a title contender.

Whether it’s later this summer, sometime during this season, or next summer, it’s very likely LeBron James will sign a two-year contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. But with a player option on the second year, James will likely once again control free agency in the summer of 2024 as he heads into his record-tying 22nd NBA season.

*The Over-38 rule closes a loophole in the NBA where a team could give an older player a long-term contract with the intention of that player retiring before the full amount of their contract was due.

In this situation, if the player is over 38 years old, or will be during the duration of the deal, the years when the player is over-38 are handled differently salary-wise and cap/tax hit-wise. The salary for the over-38 years is actually applied to the earlier years of the contract as far as cap/tax hit goes.

In the case of LeBron James, or any other max salary player of his age, you can’t frontload the contract above the max. However, the Over-38 rule does limit James to signing a three-year contract.

For more on the Over-38 rule, see the CBAFAQ here.

Almost immediately after the Golden State Warriors won the 2022 NBA Finals, the criticisms started. Their fourth title in eight years was called a “checkbook win”. There’s also been reporting that Joe Lacob’s fellow NBA governors are upset about the Warriors lavish spending.

To be fair, Golden State has outspent the rest of the NBA by a wide margin over the last half-decade or so. That’s a fact.

Last season, the Warriors were over $39 million over the luxury tax line. That amount, combined with the subsequent penalties for being so far over the tax, plus being a luxury tax repeater team, hit Golden State with a total tax bill of over $170 million.

The second-most expensive team in terms of total tax bill? The Brooklyn Nets at roughly $97.7 million. Third on the list were the LA Clippers at $83 million.

That’s $72 million to $87 million more than the next two most expensive teams in the NBA last season. Even more staggering? The Warriors paid far more in luxury taxes than the other four tax teams did combined. The Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and Philadelphia 76ers combined to pay approximately $131.7 million in tax payments last season. That’s more than $38 million less than the Warriors.

The other 23 teams? No tax payments at all. They all got a check from the tax teams that totaled about $11 million per non-taxpaying team.

Even if you consider the Nets and Clippers to be within range of the Warriors, that still leaves 27 teams fighting to catch the champs in terms of spending. Thus, the bellyaching that Golden State is operating in a realm the rest of the NBA can’t hope to play in.

Boo hoo. Grab a tissue and wipe your tears while the world’s smallest violin plays a somber tune for your melancholy.

Yes, small market teams probably can’t spend what the Warriors are spending. That is true. The TV and metro markets of teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies are a fraction of that of Golden State’s market. They’d have struggles keeping up that level of spending over a period of a few years, never mind over the bulk of a decade.

But the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz are in markets as small as the teams listed above and both were luxury tax teams last season. The “small market” Portland Trail Blazers have regularly been tax payers too.

Market size clearly doesn’t, and shouldn’t, dictate ownership’s willingness to pay the tax. When you have the right team, you pay for it. Compete for titles, and you get expensive. That’s just how it works in the NBA. Even the small-market-example-of-excellence Spurs regularly paid the tax when they were competing to win the Finals.

And that’s the real crux of this argument. Have the Golden State Warriors bought championships, à la the accusation often leveled at the George Steinbrenner-era New York Yankees?

No. Or, at least, not exactly.

Since the Warriors won their first title in 2016, they’ve paid the tax in five of eight seasons. In their four championship seasons, Golden State has only actually paid the tax in two of those years.

Now, this year’s tax bill got a bit out of control. But that’s come from years of spending starting to add up, as opposed to a one-year, or series of one-year, spending sprees. That’s one place where the comparisons to the Yankees fall apart.

The other place the Yankees comp comes up short? The Warriors aren’t building the bulk of their roster through free agent signings and trading for players other teams can no longer afford.

Here’s the Warriors roster from last season and how they acquired each player:

• Nemanja Bjelica – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Stephen Curry – 2009 Draft
• Draymond Green – 2012 Draft
• Andre Iguodala – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Jonathan Kuminga – 2021 Draft
• Damion Lee – 2018 Minimum Exception
• Kevon Looney – 2015 Draft
• Moses Moody – 2021 Draft
• Gary Payton II – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Jordan Poole – 2019 Draft
• Otto Porter Jr. – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Klay Thompson – 2011 Draft
• Juan Toscano-Anderson – 2020 Minimum Exception
• Andrew Wiggins – 2020 Trade
• James Wiseman 2020 Draft
• Chris Chiozza – 2021 Two-Way
• Quinndary Weatherspoon – 2021 Two-Way

Here’s how those acquisitions break down:

• Draft – 8 players
• Minimum Exception – 6 players
• Two-Way – 2 players
• Trade – 1 player

Outside of Andrew Wiggins, every player on the roster was acquirable by a means available to every other team. With eight players acquired via the draft, the Warriors are one of the more homegrown teams in the NBA. Funnily enough, the highest-drafted of those eight players, James Wiseman, didn’t even appear in a game last season.

Now, that homegrown talent has largely blossomed and they’ve signed very lucrative contract extensions, followed by second and third extensions by some of the players. That’s largely what pushes Golden State’s salary plus tax commitment into the stratosphere.

Yes, they acquired Wiggins through a chain of transactions that relates back to signing Kevin Durant as a free agent. But even that original Durant acquisition wasn’t about just overpaying and “buying” a title. That 2016 signing was aided by a cap spike and the vastly under-market deal of Stephen Curry at the time.

After his initial 1+1 deal, Durant opted out. He did the same thing one more time. In total, Durant signed three different deals with the Warriors to keep pushing his salary higher. But when Durant wanted to leave, Golden State didn’t just let him walk. They kept that salary slot alive by working a double sign-and-trade to acquire D’Angelo Russell.

About seven months later, Russell was flipped for Wiggins, and his then-seen-as toxic contract. Two-and-a-half seasons and a title later, opinions on Wiggins’ deal have softened or flipped entirely.

In total, the Warriors made one chained-together set of deals that turned Durant into Russell into Wiggins that was even remotely enabled by their ability to spend.

Beyond that Durant-Russell-Wiggins salary slot, of which you can find a similarly exorbitant deal on the books of almost every team in the NBA over the last decade, all the Warriors have done is paid to keep their own players, while largely filling out their roster with minimum signings.

Which begs the questions: Was Golden State supposed to let their own players leave? Are the Warriors to be faulted for drafting and developing, and then paying, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson? How about Jordan Poole when he’s next to sign a big new deal?

If the answer is no, then what’s the crying about? The name of the game, for all 30 NBA teams, is always “draft and develop” first. The Warriors have simply been better at that than most for a decade.

The next logical question becomes: Can, or could, any other team have continued to up their salary plus tax commitment over a long period to keep a title team together?

This one is a little more complicated. But outside of the situation where James Harden was traded from Oklahoma City to Houston, what title contender has ever failed to pay to keep an All-Star around? To go a bit further: what team, in general, has lost an All-Star in the last 20 years because of salary concerns?

Yes, that was answering a question with more questions. But the answer to number of All-Stars leaving because their teams wouldn’t pay them is exactly zero. 0. None. Nada. Nil. Zilch. When All-Stars have left teams, it’s been to try to win somewhere else, often at the cost of giving up salary by leaving.

In an era where there are often complaints about super teams and players jumping from team to team seemingly on a whim, Golden State Warriors has built a team of mostly homegrown players and they’ve won more than anyone else over the past decade.

Instead of complaining about the Warriors largesse and skyrocketing tax bills, maybe the fingers should be pointed in the other direction. Why aren’t more teams drafting and developing better? And then, if they do, why aren’t they able to keep those teams together?

The answers to those questions probably aren’t money-based. Those teams didn’t stay together because of other reasons, often driven by failures of the teams or the players on those teams to win enough to keep everyone happy and home.

In a league where every team is owned by billionaires, it’s true that the Golden State Warriors have outspent everyone else. Not because they are the only ones who can, but because they’re the only ones who have. And it’s because they’ve outplayed everyone else during that same period and kept their team together in an era where that rarely happens. That’s a combination that should be applauded and respected instead of abhorred and reviled.

The 2019 NBA Draft class is eligible to sign Rookie Scale contract extensions this offseason. Each player has until late-October to agree to an extension. If no agreement is reached, the player will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2023. A handful of players are ineligible to sign an extension, because they had team options declined or were waived at some point during their rookie scale contract.

By pick, here’s where things stand for each player. We’ll make a prediction on what happens before the late-October extension deadline.

For reference: The standard maximum contract (25% of the cap) these players can sign projects to be $197,229,725 over five years. The Designated Rookie Extension amount (30% of the cap) projects to be $236,675,670 over five years. We’re projecting this off a 10% increase in the salary cap from 2022-23 to 2023-24.

In order to qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension, a player must make All-NBA this coming season, or they can also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year this coming season.

Related: Spotrac's NBA Extension Tracker

1. Zion Williamson – New Orleans Pelicans

   
   In terms of talent, Williamson is worthy of a max extension. The challenge is that he’s played 85 games over three seasons. But those 85 games were incredible. We went in depth on Williamson here (Note: contract estimates have updated since written), so we won’t go as deep here. All the thoughts remain the same.
   Prediction: five years, $197.2 million, protections against injury specified, 5th year player option (largely in exchange for the injury protection language)

2. Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies

   
   Morant is a superstar. He’s going to get paid like one too. He’s the only player in this class to have already made an All-NBA team. If he makes one more, he’ll qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension at this point, and he’s probably going to get it.
   Prediction: five years, $197.2 million, 5th year player option, with Designated Rookie language to bump him to five years, $236.7 million, 5th year player option if he makes All-NBA again

3. RJ Barrett – New York Knicks

   
   Barrett is going to ask for a max extension. The Knicks probably don’t want to go there…yet. Barrett is coming off a good season, but his shooting slipped. Unless the Knicks agree to a max now, Barrett should bet on himself and play for a max deal this season and revisit things next summer.
   Prediction: No extension

4. De’Andre Hunter – Atlanta Hawks

   
   Hunter has a lot of potential, but he’s had a lot of trouble staying healthy. Atlanta invested a lot to acquire Hunter in the first place, and now they’ve reportedly removed him from trade discussions. That signals an intention to extend him this offseason.
   Prediction: four years, $80 million, no options

5. Darius Garland – Cleveland Cavaliers

   
   Garland is coming off his first All-Star season. If he can keep that upward trajectory going, he could be an edge candidate to make All-NBA next season. Unless the Cavs offer a full max extension, Garland might bet on himself and earn one this season. Cleveland won’t mess around with their young star, especially after getting a nice value deal on Jarrett Allen last summer.
   Prediction:five years, $197.2 million, 5th year player option

6. Jarret Culver – Memphis Grizzlies

   
   Culver had his fourth-year rookie scale team option declined after he was traded to the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s not eligible to sign an extension and he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

7. Coby White – Chicago Bulls

   
   White has talent, but he hasn’t quite put it all together in his first three years in the league. He has improved as a shooter each year, so some smart team might swipe him in in a trade to lead their bench unit. But there’s no extension coming for White.
   Prediction: No extension

8. Jaxson Hayes – New Orleans Pelicans

   
   Hayes’ potential remains through the roof, but it’s still potential vs production. The Pelicans probably let this one play out, unless Hayes is willing to sign something really, really team-friendly. And he shouldn’t do that yet.
   Prediction: No extension

9. Rui Hachimura – Washington Wizards

   
   Hachimura looked really good when he finally played last season. In a crowded Wizards frontcourt, he managed to average 11 points per game on 49/45/70 shooting splits. This might be one of those “surprise” extensions that ends up looking really good for the team.
   Prediction: four years, $52 million, no options

10. Cam Reddish – New York Knicks

    
    Reddish is on team two since being drafted. He’s got potential, but everything is theoretical right now, since Reddish hasn’t played much. This one will play out to next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

11. Cameron Johnson – Phoenix Suns

    
    Remember when it looked like Johnson was drafted way too early? Good times! He’s become a deadeye shooter off the bench for Phoenix, and he seems ready for a bigger role. The Suns generally like to lock their players up early. Look for something similar with Johnson.
    Prediction: four years, $60 million, no options

12. P.J. Washington – Charlotte Hornets

    
    Washington has come along as a player, but he’s still been unable to fully crack the starting lineup. His role remains somewhat up in the air. That’s not a great combo when talking extensions.
    Prediction: No extension

13. Tyler Herro – Miami Heat

    
    Herro is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. How much is that worth in an extension? We wrote in depth on Herro here (Note: contract estimates have updated since written), so we won’t go as deep here.
    Prediction: five years, $197.2 million, no options

14. Romeo Langford – San Antonio Spurs

    
    Langford is hanging on in San Antonio, but he’s kind of approaching “last chance saloon” time. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and now he’s part of a very crowded guard/wing mix with the Spurs. He’s playing out this deal, assuming even he sticks on the San Antonio roster.
    Prediction: No extension.

15. Sekou Doumbouya – out of the NBA 

    
    Doumbouya is out of the NBA. He didn’t even really make it to the third year of his rookie scale deal before being waived after being traded from the Detroit Pistons to the Brooklyn Nets to the Houston Rockets.

16. Chuma Okeke – Orlando Magic

    
    Okeke isn’t eligible for an extension yet. Even though he was drafted in 2019, Okeke didn’t sign until before the 2020-21 season, as he was rehabbing from a torn ACL throughout the entirety of the 2019-20 season.

17. Nickeil Alexander-Walker – Utah Jazz

    
    The Jazz took a shot on Alexander-Walker as a trade deadline acquisition last season. He barely played for Utah, but could crack the rotation this upcoming season. But there’s no extension coming for NAW.
    Prediction: No extension

18. Goga Bitadze – Indiana Pacers

    
    Bitadze has had flashes at times for Indiana, but hasn’t played enough to put it all together yet. He probably won’t get extended, but if he can have a big season, Bitadze could earn a nice deal next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

19. Luka Samanic – out of the NBA

    
    The San Antonio Spurs waived Samanic after his second season. He spent most of last year on a Two-Way deal with the New York Knicks, but didn’t appear in an NBA game.

20. Matisse Thybulle – Philadelphia 76ers

    
     Thybulle is in a weird spot. He’s made the All-Defensive Team two years in a row. That’s quite the accomplishment for a young player. But Thybulle’s offensive game hasn’t really grown at all, and seems to have regressed some from his rookie year. He can’t shoot at all. Worse? He’s becoming a non-shooter. Teams simply don’t guard him. How much is an all-defense, no-offense player worth?

    Prediction: No extension unless he’s traded before the extension to a team that really values his defense. If traded: 4 years, $48 million, no options

21. Brandon Clarke – Memphis Grizzlies

    
    Clarke had a nice third season after a bit of a sophomore slump. He’s the Grizzlies best backup big, and that’s a key role given injury histories of the starters. If his jumper continued to show the promise of his rookie season, he’d be a more interesting extension candidate. Alas, he’s probably headed for restricted free agency next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

22. Grant Williams – Boston Celtics

    
    Boston likes to lock their draftees up when they can. Williams probably won’t be any different. He’s become a key rotation player for the Celtics and he’s one of the better stretch-4 options in the league right now. Look for an incentive-laden deal that could hit bigger if Williams keeps improving.
    Prediction: four years, $44 million with incentives to push it to $50 million, no options

23. Darius Bazley – Oklahoma City Thunder

    
    Bazley has improved over the first three years of his career, but the Thunder seem to be setting up to make a big run in 2023 free agency. Unless Bazley inks an incredibly team-friendly extension, this one will go to restricted free agency with a reasonable cap hold next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

24. Ty Jerome – Oklahoma City Thunder

    
    It’s a little surprising that Jerome made it even this far, but the Thunder had the ability to be patient after they got him from the Suns. But he won’t get extended.
    Prediction: No extension

25. Nassir Little – Portland Trail Blazers

    
    Little showed he’s a scalable player in his third season. He maintained most of his efficiency while playing a bigger role. The Blazers might try to get him on a deal like Grayson Allen or Landry Shamet got last year. But Little should bet on even more playing time in a shallow wing rotation in Portland and a bigger, better deal next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

26. Dylan Windler – Cleveland Cavaliers

    
    Windler missed his entire first year in the NBA while recovering from a leg injury. He’s been unable to find a lot of traction since then. He’s nominally a shooter, but needs more time to prove that on the NBA level.
    Prediction: No extension

27. Mfiondu Kabengele – out of the NBA

    
    Kabengele is out of the league. He never really found a home with the LA Clippers. He showed some in a callup with the Cleveland Cavaliers last year, but he’s a camp guy for now.

28. Jordan Poole – Golden State Warriors

    
    The Warriors missed out with the 28th pick a season before with Jacob Evans in 2018, but they hit the jackpot with Poole in 2019. Now, Poole is set to cash in. He’s a key player now, but also as part of that group that will bridge the Warriors veterans from their current run into whatever the future brings. We went deep on Poole here(Note: contract estimates have updated since written), and not much has changed.
    Prediction: four years, $100 million, no options

29. Keldon Johnson – San Antonio Spurs

    
    Johnson has developed into a terrific, yet under-the-radar player for the Spurs. He’s a solid defender, but a terrific inside-outside scoring forward. Under normal circumstances, Johnson should get a big, new deal. But San Antonio seems to be pivoting in a different direction after trading Dejounte Murray. That puts this one in flux.
    Prediction: four years, $80 million, no options IF traded before the extension deadline

30. Kevin Porter Jr. – Houston Rockets

    
    Porter can play. He’s got a ton of talent. But that talent comes with continued personal challenges. During this time in Houston, Porter has occasionally run afoul of the team. Given the Rockets have time as a rebuilding team, and they’ve got a ton of young talent, they’ll pass on an extension and let things play out to restricted free agency next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available.

In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All-Star Tier

1. 1. James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted – player option)
   2. Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted)
   3. Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards (unrestricted – player option)
   4. Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns (restricted)

Starter Tier

1. 5. Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets (restricted)
   6. Jalen Brunson – Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted)
   7. Tyus Jones – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted)
   8. Anfernee Simons – Portland Trail Blazers (restricted)
   9. Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted)
   10. Bobby Portis – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted – player option)
   11. P.J. Tucker – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
   12. Collin Sexton – Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted)
   13. T.J. Warren – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted)
   14. Kyle Anderson – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted)
   15. Gary Harris – Orlando Magic (unrestricted)
   16. Bruce Brown Jr – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted)
   17. Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted)
   18. Otto Porter Jr. – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted)
   19. Ivica Zubac – LA Clippers (unrestricted)
   20. Nicolas Batum – LA Clippers (unrestricted)
   21. Nicolas Claxton – Brooklyn Nets (restricted)
   22. Isaiah Hartenstein – LA Clippers (unrestricted)
   23. Mitchell Robinson – New York Knicks (unrestricted)
   24. Montrezl Harrell – Charlotte Hornets (unrestricted)
   25. Andre Drummond – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted)

Rotation Tier

1. 26. Malik Monk – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted)
   27. Victor Oladipo – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
   28. Lonnie Walker IV – San Antonio Spurs (restricted)
   29. Donte DiVincenzo – Sacramento Kings (restricted)
   30. Gary Payton II – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted)
   31. Chris Boucher – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
   32. Caleb Martin – Miami Heat (restricted)
   33. Cody Martin – Charlotte Hornets (restricted)
   34. Marvin Bagley III – Detroit Pistons (restricted)
   35. Ricky Rubio – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted)
   36. Patty Mills – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted – player option)
   37. Delon Wright – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
   38. Mo Bamba – Orlando Magic (restricted)
   39. Frank Jackson – Detroit Pistons (unrestricted)
   40. Dennis Schroder – Houston Rockets (unrestricted)
   41. Jevon Carter – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted)
   42. Goran Dragic – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted)
   43. Trey Lyles – Sacrament Kings (unrestricted – team option)
   44. Isaiah Roby – Oklahoma City Thunder (restricted – team option)
   45. Dewayne Dedmon – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
   46. JaVale McGee – Phoenix Suns (unrestricted)
   47. Robin Lopez – Orlando Magic (unrestricted)
   48. Carmelo Anthony – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted)
   49. Danuel House Jr. – Utah Jazz (unrestricted)
   50. Wesley Matthews – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted)

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Center

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All-Star Tier

1. 1. Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns (restricted): Ayton is the best free agent big man available. He’s one of  the better young bigs to hit free agency in several years. Despite that, he seems likely to move on from the Suns this summer. Ayton is right on the verge of making his first All-Star appearance, so there should be a strong market for his serves.

Starter Tier

1. 2. Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted): Nurkic is coming off several injury-plagued seasons in a row. But when healthy, the soon-to-be 28-year-old center is a double-double lock. He’s also a good screener and passer. Look for Portland to keep Nurkic, as they retool the roster around Damian Lillard.
   3. Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): Looney was one of the few players to appear in all 82 games this season. That durability, along with his defense and rebounding, make him likely to return to the champs. Bringing back Looney will allow the Warriors to continue to take it slow with James Wiseman’s development and return from injury.
   4. Ivica Zubac – LA Clippers (unrestricted – team option): Zubac has developed into one of the better centers in the NBA. He goes under the radar due to the Clippers star power, but he’s a key player for LA. Look for the Clips to pick up his option.
   5. Nicolas Claxton – Brooklyn Nets (restricted): This is an upside bet to a large degree. Claxton has all the tools to be a good starting center, but he hasn’t put it all together yet. Given all the drama around the Nets offseason, some smart team might be able to sneak in and steal Claxton.
   6. Isaiah Hartenstein – LA Clippers (unrestricted): Hartenstein paired with Ivica Zubac to give LA 48 minutes of solid center play. It’ll cost the Clippers even more on their tax bill to keep him, but Hartenstein is worth it. He’s a good backline defender, solid finisher and there are glimmers of him expanding his shooting range too.
   7. Mitchell Robinson – New York Knicks (unrestricted): If Robinson could stay healthy, he’d be pushing Ayton at the top of this list. He’s an elite finisher and shot-blocker. The challenge is that last year was by far his healthiest season and he still missed 10 games and parts of several others. Still, Robinson can really play, and he’s only 24 years old. He’ll get a nice deal this summer.
   8. Andre Drummond – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Given enough minutes, Drummond is still a double-double machine. The challenge is that he’s not a threat outside of the basket area and his defense leaves a lot to be desired. He might be best as a high-end backup on a good team, like the role he played before the 76ers traded him at the trade deadline.

Rotation Tier

1. 9. Mo Bamba – Orlando Magic (restricted): Bamba is coming off easily his best season in the NBA. The challenge is that it came in a contract year. He’s probably moving out of Orlando’s crowded frontcourt and someone will take a chance on paying a talented center who can shoot and protect the rim.
   10. Dewayne Dedmon – Miami Heat (unrestricted): Dedmon got a bit exposed in the playoffs, but in the regular season he’s a good backup center. He’ll probably stick in Miami on a minimum deal to keep backing up Bam Adebayo, unless the Heat want to give that spot to Omer Yurtseven.
   11. JaVale McGee – Phoenix Suns (unrestricted): McGee was one of the best backup centers in the NBA last season. If the Suns lose Deandre Ayton, they might re-sign McGee and hand him their starting spot. If paired with a solid backup, McGee will be productive enough for that to work.
   12. Robin Lopez – Orlando Magic (unrestricted): Lopez is in a bit of a weird spot. He could be one of the best backup centers in the NBA, but he doesn’t seem to have a need to play on a contender. Lopez enjoyed playing for, and living in, Orlando this year. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him re-sign with the Magic to keep mentoring the team’s young big men.
   13. Naz Reid – Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted – team option): Reid has been solid behind Karl-Anthony Towns with the Wolves. Minnesota isn’t ready to increase their salaries to pushing the tax yet, so they’ll probably pick up their option for Reid for next season.
   14. Jalen Smith – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted): Smith is in an interesting spot. Because Phoenix declined his rookie scale option for 2022-23, the Pacers are capped at paying him the equivalent of that option amount at $4.7 million. Smith played easily his best ball with the Pacers, so Indiana would like to keep him. But if someone else offers him even the Taxpayer MLE, the Pacers might be out of luck.
   15. Damian Jones – Sacramento Kings (unrestricted): Jones is coming off his best NBA year. He’s shown signs of being a quality backup center now. Look for the Kings to try and retain him, but their frontcourt is getting a little crowded.
   16. Thomas Bryant – Washington Wizards (unrestricted): Bryant is coming off what was seen as one of the best value deals in the NBA. Had he shown more in his return from tearing his ACL in 2020, Bryant might be in line for another good contract. Now, he’s probably playing somewhere on a prove-it deal next season.
   17. DeMarcus Cousins – Denver Nuggets (unrestricted): After wandering around the NBA for a few years, Cousins seems to have found a home in Denver with Michael Malone. He’s a good backup for Nikola Jokic, because the Nuggets don’t have to change what they do on either end. Look for Cousins to return to Denver.
   18. LaMarcus Aldridge – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Aldridge got to return to playing and will be able to finish his career on his terms after a scary heart issue. That’s the good news. The bad new is that it looks like the end of that career is looming. Maybe a contender snaps him up for deep bench depth, but Aldridge doesn’t have much left beyond the ability to stick midrange jumpers.
   19. Bismack Biyombo – Phoenix Suns (unrestricted): Biyombo surprisingly got back to the NBA and was very productive for the Suns in a backup role. He meshed particularly well with Chris Paul. If Biyombo is back in the NBA next year, look for it to be with the Suns again.
   20. Moses Brown – Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted): Brown is still a bit of an enigma. He’s still very young and he’s enormous. Someone will take a flier on Brown and his upside, because you can’t teach size.
   21. Hassan Whiteside – Utah Jazz (unrestricted): Whiteside was the ideal backup for Rudy Gobert in many ways, because he’s plug-and-play in the Jazz system. Now, Utah will have a new coach. It’s unknown how Whiteside will fit in a new system. He could be headed for a fifth team in as many years.
   22. Dwight Howard – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): Howard is solid enough for 10-15 minutes as a backup center. When he has to play more than that, he gets exposed. 
   23. Tristan Thompson – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted): See above. Thompson just doesn’t have the same game he had even as recently as a few years ago.
   24. Serge Ibaka – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted): Three in a row for the veterans who aren’t the athletes they once were. Ibaka at least has the benefit of having some shooting range to offer in a deep bench role.
   25. Mike Muscala – Oklahoma City Thunder (unrestricted – team option): The Thunder value Muscala, and rightly so. He’s not a game-changer, but he’s a solid backup. It’s likely OKC will pick up his option and bring him back for at least one more year.

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

• • Bol Bol – Orlando Magic (restricted)
  • Tony Bradley – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted – player option)
  • Ed Davis – Cleveland Cavaliers (unrestricted)
  • Gorgui Dieng – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
  • Bruno Fernando – Houston Rockets (restricted)
  • Luka Garza – Detroit Pistons (restricted – team option)
  • DeAndre Jordan – Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted)
  • Nathan Knight – Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Greg Monroe – Minnesota Timberwolves (unrestricted)
  • Neemias Queta – Sacramento Kings (restricted – Two-Way)

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All-Star Tier

None. No players classified as small forwards have consistently established themselves as All-Star level talents.

Starter Tier

1. 1. Bobby Portis – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted – player option): Portis is the best “available” power forward. The reason he’s only “available” is because everyone believes he’ll opt out and re-sign with the Bucks. Portis is solid as either a starter or a reserve as one of the better stretch-4 options in the league. Milwaukee will be happy to have him back.
   2. P.J. Tucker – Miami Heat (unrestricted): Tucker is opting out of his deal with the Heat to see what else is out there. He remains a very good defender and a dependable threat on corner threes. Tucker’s next deal is as much about adding a couple more years of guaranteed salary as it is securing the most money possible.
   3. Kyle Anderson – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted): Anderson could get caught up in the forward crunch in Memphis. The Grizzlies have a lot of players that play both forward spots, as Anderson does. If so, some other team is going to get a really productive combo-forward for their bench. He’ll be an MLE target for several contenders.
   4. Otto Porter Jr. – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): In a very real sense, the Warriors are going to have to choose between Porter and Gary Payton II this summer. Only one of them can get the Taxpayer MLE. Despite Porter finding his game again after a couple of down years, Payton fills a bigger need for the champs. That should make Porter available for those teams looking to take Golden State down next season.
   5. Montrezl Harrell – Charlotte Hornets (unrestricted): Harrell is ideally more of a five than a four, but he primarily played the four last season in both Washington and Charlotte. His recent arrest makes his free agency a bit cloudy. Harrell’s lack of a perimeter game is also starting to squeeze his options.

Rotation Tier

1. 6. Chris Boucher – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted): How much you buy into Boucher as a player depends on if you think 2021 or 2022 was his real ceiling. Two years ago, Boucher was excellent as a stretch-4/5. He blocked shots, finished at the rim and shot well from behind the arc. Last season, that all dropped off some. Someone will pay Boucher, then it’s up to him to make that a good or bad deal.
   7. Marvin Bagley III – Detroit Pistons (restricted): Detroit will likely re-sign Bagley. This might be one of the earlier deals agreed to, as well. Then the Pistons can renounce Bagley’s large cap hold, while saving a chunk of cap space for him. He was better in Detroit than most of his Sacramento tenure, and he fits in with the young Pistons.
   8. Trey Lyles – Sacramento Kings (unrestricted – team option): The Kings should pick up Lyles’ option. He’s become a very solid stretch-4/5 and his contract is beyond reasonable at $2.6 million. This decision may give us insight into how far Sacramento has come with making sound personnel decisions.
   9. Isaiah Roby – Oklahoma City Thunder (restricted – team option): Roby is coming off an extremely productive third season for the Thunder. He averaged 10.1 points on 51.4% shooting from the field, including an incredible 44.4% from behind the arc. If that shooting is for real, Roby is going to be a steal for OKC (if they pick up their team option) or for another team (if the Thunder decline their option).
   10. Carmelo Anthony – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): Even during his age-37 season, Anthony remained productive for the Lakers. He scored 13.3 points per game off the bench on pretty good efficiency. If Anthony wants to play a 20th season, he’ll likely do it off the Lakers bench again.
   11. Thaddeus Young – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted): Young was solid for the Raptors after they acquired him at the trade deadline. He’s got enough left to give a contender 10-15 minutes a night off the bench.
   12. Taurean Prince – Minnesota Timberwolves (unrestricted): Prince’s role was reduced, but his efficiency went way up with the Wolves last year. That’s probably a sign of what his role should be moving forward. Contenders looking for 3/4 depth could do worse than signing Prince to come off their bench.
   13. Nemanja Bjelica – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): Bjelica won a championship playing for the veteran minimum last season. He might like to cash in on a bigger deal, but at 34 years old, it’s hard to see Bjelica getting much more. He should re-sign with the Warriors and run it back as depth option for Steve Kerr.
   14. Blake Griffin – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Griffin had a resurgence when he joined the Nets in 2021 after a buyout with the Pistons. By the end of last season. Griffin was out of the rotation for Brooklyn. Someone will give him another deal for the minimum and hope they can get one more productive season out Griffin.

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

• • Devontae Cacok – San Antonio Spurs (restricted)
  • Vlatko Cancar – Denver Nuggets (restricted)
  • Tyler Cook – Chicago Bulls (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Wenyen Gabriel – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted – team option)
  • Udonis Haslem – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
  • Luke Kornet – Boston Celtics (unrestricted)
  • Paul Millsap – Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted)
  • Juwan Morgan – Boston Celtics (restricted – team option)
  • Markieff Morris – Miami Hat (unrestricted)
  • Eric Paschall – Utah Jazz (restricted)
  • Jamorko Pickett – Detroit Pistons (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Moses Wright – Dallas Mavericks (restricted – Two-Way)

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards    |   Centers

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All-Star Tier

None. No players classified as small forwards have consistently established themselves as All-Star level talents.

Starter Tier

1. 1. Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets (restricted): Bridges is knocking on the door of the All-Star tier. He’s not there yet, but that won’t be enough to keep him from getting a huge new contract. The Hornets have to be careful here. Mess around too much in negotiations and Bridges could sign an offer sheet with a cap space team and really force Charlotte’s hands.
   2. T.J. Warren – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted): It’s basically been two years since we’ve seen Warren play. Since his dominating play in the bubble, Warren has appeared in just four NBA games. It’s a healthy respect for what he’s done as a scoring 3/4 that puts him this high on this list. He could be a great candidate for a contender to sign on a team-friendly bounce-back deal.
   3. Nicolas Batum – LA Clippers (unrestricted): Batum is opting out of his deal so that he can sign for more money and add a couple of years too. He’s had a career resurgence with the Clippers. Look for Batum to stay in LA, but other contenders will try hard to get him to at least listen to their pitch.
   4. Jae’Sean Tate – Houston Rockets (restricted – team option): It’s unlikely Tate makes it to free agency this year. The Rockets will very likely pick up their team option for him. They can still make him a restricted free agent in 2023, so there’s no reason for Houston to act earlier than necessary on a new deal. If he does, some smart team should craft an offer sheet for Tate, because he can really play.

Rotation Tier

1. 5. Caleb Martin – Miami Heat (restricted): Martin had a breakout season while on a Two-Way deal for most of it. He’s one of the better wing options that’s “available”. We use “available” because it’s highly likely Miami will do what they can to keep him. Only a silly offer sheet will get the Heat to blink.
   6. Cody Martin – Charlotte Hornets (restricted): Like his twin brother, Cody Martin has also come a long way in his development. He’s not quite the shooter his brother is, but he’s close. Both are two of the better 3&D options on the market. Unlike the Heat, the Hornets tend to get overly frugal and sometimes that causes them to let players slip away. Keep an eye on this Martin twin.
   7. Jalen McDaniels – Charlotte Hornets (restricted – team option): The Hornets will probably pick up this option and then deal with McDaniels’ free agency next year. The smart move would be to decline the option and keep control of his free agency via the restricted path this summer. McDaniels offers a nice blend of size and skill at either forward spot. And, yes, the Hornets once had both Martin twins and McDaniels.
   8. Danuel House Jr. – Utah Jazz (unrestricted): House had some trouble finding a landing spot after the Rockets tired of him and moved on. His antics in the bubble didn’t help House any in that respect. But he found his footing in Utah. Given the paucity of available small forward talent this summer, House could get a nice one or two-year payday.
   9. Oshae Brissett – Indiana Pacers (restricted – team option): The Pacers should pick up this option. Brissett has been a nice find for them. He always plays really hard and has shown some ability to shoot. Brissett is undersized to slide up to the four, so he’s a true small forward, which limits his options to some extent.
   10. Derrick Jones Jr. – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted): Jones really struggled after leaving Miami for Portland a couple of years ago. He got back to his around-the-rim ways to some extent in Chicago. But Jones needs to recapture that Heat magic and re-find his game if he wants more than the minimum.
   11. Andre Iguodala – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): It’s out of respect for all Iguodala has accomplished that he even ranks this high. He’s the very definition of a part-time player now. If Iguodala plays a 19th season, it will be with the Warriors and no one else.
   12. Juan Toscano-Anderson – Golden State Warriors (restricted): Toscano-Anderson was one of Golden State’s finds when they spent a couple of years wandering the NBA wilderness. If Toscano-Anderson could only shoot it more consistently, he’d be at least five slots higher on this list. As it is, he’s probably looking at another minimum, prove-it deal.
   13. Jordan Nwora – Milwaukee Bucks (restricted): Every once and a while you just get a feeling a player could do more with a bigger opportunity. Nwora feels like one of those guys. He can really score and he’s a good rebounder for a wing. His efficiency has been all over the place, but so has his role. Call this one a hunch on a guy who could break out next year in the right situation.

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

• • Isaac Bonga – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
  • Ignas Brazdeikis – Orlando Magic (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Justin Champagnie – Toronto Raptors (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Gary Clark – New Orleans Pelicans (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Kessler Edwards – Brooklyn Nets (restricted – team option)
  • C.J. Elleby – Portland Trail Blazers (restricted)
  • Melvin Frazier Jr. – Oklahoma City Thunder (unrestricted – Two-Way)
  • Sam Hauser – Boston Celtics (restricted – team option)
  • Malcolm Hill – Chicago Bulls (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Josh Jackson – Sacramento Kings (unrestricted)
  • Stanley Johnson – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted – team option)
  • Kevin Knox – Atlanta Hawks (restricted)
  • Arnoldas Kulboka – Charlotte Hornets (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Anthony Lamb – Houston Rockets (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Jake Layman – Minnesota Timberwolves (unrestricted)
  • Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
  • Yves Pons – Memphis Grizzlies (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Davon Reed – Denver Nuggets (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Matt Ryan – Boston Celtics (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Admiral Schofield – Orlando Magic (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Ishmail Wainright – Phoenix Suns (restricted)
  • Yuta Watanabe – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
  • Joe Wieskamp – San Antonio Spurs (restricted)
  • Robert Woodard II – San Antonio Spurs (unrestricted – Two-Way)

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center