As the 2023 NFL offseason closes in, Spotrac's Positional Breakdown series continues with a deep dive into the financial statuses of each team's running back position, including rostered players, remaining term & guarantees, and stability at the starting & backup roles.

RELATED: QB ANALYSIS

Arizona Cardinals

Status: Seeking a Wing Man

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $20M

James Conner will enter year 2 of a 3 year $21M deal signed last March. His $5.75M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, and his $7.75M of base pay could be restructured in order to reduce a sizable $10M cap number.

The depth behind him remains at large, as 2022 6th round pick Keaontay Ingram (3 years $2.9M non-guaranteed) projects as the 2023 RB2 currently. There’s an add to be made here.

Atlanta Falcons

Status: Run it Back?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $69M

Cordarrelle Patterson will soon be 32 years old, and his cap hit for 2023 ($5.5M) more than doubles its current state ($2.5M). There’s at least $1.75M of cap to free up here, but keeping the veteran in tow with what is assumed to be a rookie QB probably makes good sense.

2022 5th round pick Tyler Allgeier (3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed) has already earned top-billing snaps, and projects to be the 2023 starter right now, barring a free agent signing. The Falcons have plenty of other holes to fill before the RB position should be addressed.

Baltimore Ravens

Status: Seeking Durability.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $43M

JK Dobbins will enter a contract year in 2023, set to play out a non-guaranteed $1.4M salary next season. The former #55 overall selection has missed more time than not, making him a strong candidate to be replaced in 2024. Will that happen this March?

27-year-old Gus Edwards has seen as much (or little) action as Dobbins over the past two seasons, and will enter 2023 on a non-guaranteed $5.6M cap hit. Baltimore likely takes the $4.3M to be saved by moving on next March.

Buffalo Bills

Status: Next Man Up

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$3.5M

2022 2nd rounder James Cook has already started to garner more attention in the Bills’ offense, and, with Devin Singletary slated for free agency, it stands to reason that he’ll be handed the keys to the show in 2023. Cook’s rookie deal holds 3 years, $3.7M remaining, including a fully guaranteed $970k salary next season.

Behind him, former Colts weapon Nyheim Hines (acquired at the trade deadline), brings a 2 year, $10.2M non-guaranteed contract with him to the offseason, including cap hits of $4.8M & $5.4M respectively. Buffalo can clear it all with a trade or release this spring.

Devin Singletary projects to a deal around $5.5M per year in our system.

Carolina Panthers

Status: Reinstate the Foreman

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $1.75M

Carolina didn’t miss a beat after trading Christian McCaffrey out west, with D'Onta Foreman & Chuba Hubbard combining for big production down the stretch. Foreman is a pending free agent, currently carrying a $3.5M valuation in our system, and should be strongly considered as a sign back for the Panthers.

Hubbard’s rookie deal contains 2 years, $1.9M remaining, none of it guaranteed.

Chicago Bears

Status: Back Before Forward

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $119M

25-year-old David Montgomery is a pending unrestricted free agent this March, projecting to a 3 year, $21M deal in our system. It stands to reason that Khalil Herbert (2 years, $1.9M non-guaranteed) is already on the roster.

2022 6th rounder Trestan Ebner (3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed) could be inline for a bigger role next season, but the Bears need to develop both of their trenches before sinking significant capital into more offensive weapons, so don’t be surprised if a low cost veteran or two are added to the mix here as a hold over plan.

Oh and by the way, the guy taking the snaps is a 1,000 yard rusher himself.

Cincinnati Bengals

Status: Possible Shake Up?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $48.8M

Joe Mixon was utilized out of the backfield more than ever in 2022, a good way to extend your shelf life as an NFL running back. The 26-year-old holds 2 years, $20.4M non-guaranteed left on his contract, including cap hits of $12.8M & $13.1M respectively. Cincy likely converts some of his $9.4M base salary into bonus to free up cap space, but Mixon should be locked in for the 2023 season either way.

RB2 Samaje Perine did more than enough to warrant a free agent contract, projecting to $3M per year on the open market, while 2021 6th rounder Chris Evans brings a 2 year, $2.9M non-guaranteed deal into the offseason.

Cleveland Browns

Status: Chubb Complements

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$5.8M

$2.8M of Nick Chubb’s $10.85M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed. He’s also very good. A slight restructure on his $14.85M cap figure is probably in the cards, but lock him into RB1 for another season in Cleveland.

Pending free agent Kareem Hunt saw his role drastically reduced in 2022, which could dampen his value on the open market. There’s a world where he’s still a $5M weapon in the right offense, and another where he’s $1.75M Boston Scott as the 3rd option somewhere else.

RB3 D’Ernest Johnson is also a pending free agent, likely headed for another at or near minimum salary.

Dallas Cowboys

Status: Change of the Guard

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $6.5M

Ezekiel Elliott’s mega deal still contains 4 years, $52.9M left on it - but none of it comes with an early guarantee. Dallas can free up at least $4.8M to move on from Zeke this March ($10.9M with a Post 6/1 designation). For 31 other franchises, this would be a slam dunk cap casualty, but Jerry Jones loves to keep his bands together.

Tony Pollard has done more than enough to warrant an RB1 role in this league, and is set for unrestricted free agency this March. He projects to a 3 year, $25M deal in our system. Will Zeke’s release make way for a new Pollard contract in Dallas?

Denver Broncos

Status: Wide Open

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.3M

Javonte Williams will be recovering from a torn ACL this winter, but still pencils in as the 2023 RB1, with 2 years, $3.3M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie contract.

Chase Edmonds, acquired at the deadline from Miami carries a non-guaranteed $6M cap figure in 2023, and is a slam dunk release candidate. There are at least 2 RB holes to fill this offseason.

Detroit Lions

Status: Double Extensions?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $28.5M

D'Andre Swift will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.7M. The 23 year old has missed a few games in each of his first 3 seasons, but still projects to a 4 year, $26M contract in our system.

Behind him (barely) Jamaal Williams is headed back to unrestricted free agency, with 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs under his belt. He’d be headed for solid pay day if he weren’t a few months away from 28 years of age. He still gets a $4M valuation in our system for his efforts.

Green Bay Packers

Status: 1 and Done?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9.4M

Aaron Jones just turned 28 last month, and none of 2 years, $28M remaining on his contract is currently guaranteed, but it’s hard to imagine the Packers punting on another weapon this March. His $20M cap hit for 2023 is a problem, but restructuring a $7M March roster bonus can ease that cost.

A.J. Dillon continues to put up consistently above average production as the RB1b in Green Bay, and he’ll enter a contract year in 2023 (non-guaranteed $1.3M). The yards per carry have gradually diminished a bit since he entered the league, but so has the Green Bay offense around him. It’ll be interesting to follow how the Packers handle their two backfield options over the next 18 months.

Houston Texans

Status: Value Plays

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $47M

2022 4th round pick Dameon Pierce seems to be the next value hit at the running back position, with 3 years, $2.9M remaining on his rookie deal.

Behind him, Dare Ogunbowale carries a $1.55M cap hit for 2023, with $1.4M that could be freed up as needed. Veteran Rex Burkhead is slated for unrestricted free agency.

Indianapolis Colts

Status: Taylor’s Team.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $27M

Jonathan Taylor’s 2022 was limited to just 11 games due to an ankle injury, and his yards per attempt dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 as well. Taylor becomes extension eligible this winter (projecting to a $13M per year deal), and as the lone bright spot on the offensive side of the ball, is now in the Christian McCaffrey/Panthers zone.

Zack Moss, acquired from Buffalo at the trade deadline, holds a non-guaranteed $1.1M salary in the final year of his rookie deal, 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Status: Extension Year for Etienne.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$18M

Travis Etienne’s rookie deal holds 2 years, $4.2M (guaranteed) + a 5th year option in 2025. He’ll become extension eligible for the first time after 2023.

Behind him, JaMycal Hasty is headed for restricted free agency, and with the Jags in cap trouble, could be considered a non-tender candidate. 2022 5th round pick Snoop Conner holds 3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie deal.

Kansas City Chiefs

Status: Moving on from CEH

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $18M

Isiah Pacheco, the #251 pick in this past draft, posted nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his first campaign, and is the early favorite to snag the majority of 2023 snaps in KC. His 3 year, $2.9M non-guaranteed contract offers major upside value.

The Chiefs will need to decide on Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 2024 option this coming May, and early signs point to a decline in that regard. His rookie contract holds a fully guaranteed $2M next season, and he enters the offseason as a potential trade candidate. Nearly 31 year old Jerick McKinnon was a viable weapon out of the backfield, and has to be considered for another contract this March. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Status: Jacobs’ About Face.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $33M

Nobody - not even the Raiders - saw this explosive season coming from Josh Jacobs, who’s going to win a rushing title in a contract year. He’s a franchise tag candidate (estimated $10M), and currently projects to a 4 year, $51M extension in our system.

33-year-old Brandon Bolden holds a $2.88M cap hit in 2023, $2.2M of which can be freed up in a release, while 2022 4th round pick Zamir White bring a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M rookie contract into 2023.

Los Angeles Chargers

Status: Ekeler Still King. 

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9.5M

Austin Ekeler remains a dominant versatile force in the league and will enter a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non guaranteed $5.75M. The Chargers have a few other mouths to feed (including QB1) this offseason, but a restructured extension for Ekeler, who will turn 28 next season, isn’t out of the question. He projects to a 3 year, $38M deal in our system.

Behind him, former 4th rounder Josh Kelley is entering the final year of his rookie contract, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M, while 2022 4th round pick Isaiah Spiller brings a 3 year, $2.9M non-guaranteed rookie deal into 2023.

Los Angeles Rams

Status: Green Akers?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$2.6M

The once exiled Cam Akers found new life the finish off 2022, and now seems a sure bet to play out the final year of his rookie deal (non-guaranteed $1.4M), for the Rams next season.

2022 5th round pick Kyren Williams brings a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M rookie deal into 2023, and should vie for the backup spot next season. There’s a weapon or two to be added here next March.

Miami Dolphins

Status: Crickets.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$6.9M

Raheem Mostert posted another 1,000+ yards from scrimmage campaign in 2022 and is slated for unrestricted free agency this March. The almost 31 year old is probably in the market for a deal around the $2.25M mark he cashed this season.

Jeff Wilson faced injuries and limited snaps when he was acquired from SF at the deadline, and he too will take his talents to the open market this spring. Will the Dolphins view the 27 year old as the better option going forward?

Salvon Ahmed, set for restricted free agency, is the only Dolphins running back under control for 2023.

Minnesota Vikings

Status: Still Cooking.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$7M

Dalvin Cook will enter Year 4 of a 6 year contract in Minnesota, with cap figures of $14.1M, $15.6M, & $13.5M to go respectively. The 27 year old has surpassed the 1,300 yards from scrimmage mark for the 4th straight season, finding the end zone 10+ times again as well. A simple base salary restructure can free up over $7.4M of cap space for the Vikings next season.

His RB2 for four seasons, Alexander Mattison, is now set for unrestricted free agency, holding a $2.25M valuation for his efforts thus far. There’s a world where a team views the 24 year old in a much bigger role.

2021 4th round pick Kene Nwangwu holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M contract and should slide into the backup role next season.

New England Patriots

Status: Rhamondre’s Day.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $49M

Rhamondre Stevenson took the reins this season and his non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M remaining contract carries massive value potential. He’ll become extension eligible after 2023, but that doesn’t sound like the Patriots.

Damien Harris has shown true RB1 flashes in his 4 seasons with the Patriots, but he’ll head to the open market with red flags attached to him. Mathematically there’s a world where James Conner’s 3 year, $21M contract can be had, but with supply superseding demand this spring, his final price point likely comes in around half that.

2022 4th rounder Pierre Strong appears to have the goods to slot into the RB2 role going forward, holding a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M contract going forward.

New Orleans Saints

Status: Kamara Getting Pricey

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$57M

Alvin Kamara will enter Year 4 of a 6 year contract in New Orleans, carrying cap hits of $16M, $16.9M, $27M respectively. $5M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed - but a potential suspension for an off-field issue could void those in the coming weeks. Assuming he sticks around, a full salary restructure can free up over $7.4M of cap space for the Saints in 2023.

Behind him, Eno Benjamin brings a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1M salary salary into 2023, while 33 year old Mark Ingram is once again headed for free agency.

New York Giants

Status: Tag, Sign, or Walk?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M

Saquon Barkley finally gave us that 1,500+ yards, 10+ TD season we’ve been craving since his rookie campaign back in 2018, putting himself in prime position to cash in this spring. The question of course is - how, and where? A $10M franchise tag isn’t out of the question, but that designation might need to be reserved for QB Daniel Jones this February. On a multi-year level, Barkley now projects to a 4 year, $50M extension.

Almost 28-year-old Matt Breida is heading back to the open market, while 2021 6th round pick Gary Brightwell will bring a 2 year, $2M non-guaranteed deal into the mix next season. For a lot of reasons, the Giants are a team to watch this spring.

New York Jets

Status: A Rare Surplus

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15.9M

Breece Hall was on his way to a monster inaugural season before an ACL injury torpedoed his season. His 3 year, $4.6M remaining contract ($2.6M guaranteed) should be outstanding value for the up and coming Jets roster

2021 4th round pick Michael Carter (2 years, $1.9M) held his own in a reserve role, while Zonovan Knight (1 year, $870k) showed plenty of potential in a limited sample size.

With James Robinson, acquired at the deadline from Jacksonville, slated for restricted free agency this spring, do the Jets actually have too many horses in the barn for 2023?

Philadelphia Eagles

Status: Potential Budget Cuts

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $10.5M

Both Miles Sanders & Boston Scott are slated for unrestricted free agency next March, leaving Kenneth Gainwell (2 years, $1.9M), & Trey Sermon (2 years, $2.4M). Sanders put together his best rushing season by a mile, though his work as a receiver out of the backfield dipped a bit.

The Eagles have plenty of defensive holes to fill and a likely historic extension for Jalen Hurts to consider this spring. Will they be forced to go cheap at the RB position in 2023?

Pittsburgh Steelers

Status: All Good.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13M

Najee Harris’ sophomore campaign won’t quite match the outstanding rookie season he posted, but he’s done plenty to supplant himself as one of the best young backs in the league. His rookie contract contains 2 years, $4.2M fully guaranteed plus an option in 2025, and he doesn’t become extension eligible until after the 2023 season.

UDFA Jaylen Warren stole the RB2 role away from other options this season and could be huge value for the Steelers with 2 years, $1.8M + restricted free agency in front of him still. Benny Snell Jr. is slated for unrestricted free agency this March.

San Francisco 49ers

Status: Worth It.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $14.8M

Christian McCaffrey was the big move at the trade deadline - and he hasn’t disappointed one bit. None of the $36M remaining over the final three seasons of his contract is fully guaranteed, so the Niners can operate as needed going forward. A simple base salary restructure + two void years can free up $8.5M of cap space in 2023 if necessary. McCaffrey’s role further amplifies with uncertainty at the QB position staring SF in the face.

Elijah Mitchell missed the majority of 2022 with an MCL sprain, but should bring excellent value in a complementary role to CMC with 2 years, $1.9M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie contract. While UDFA Jordan Mason has shown well in a limited sample set, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt thus far.

Seattle Seahawks

Status: Keep Ken Healthy

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $49.4M

If he can stay healthy, Kenneth Walker III will remain a huge focal point in the Seahawks’ offense. His rookie deal contains 3 years, $4.2M ($2M guaranteed) through 2025.

Behind him, DeeJay Dallas (1 year, $1M) remains the only other back signed into 2023, while Rashaad Penny & Travis Homer are slated for unrestricted free agency.

Signing a vet for depth and injury protection purposes seems relevant here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Status: Potential Buyout?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$43M

Leonard Fournette signed a $21M contract last March that fully guaranteed $2M of his 2023 salary. Another $2M is set to lock in on March 19th, all but securing the 28 year old for next season. If the Bucs really want to move on, they can take on a $5M dead cap ($2M cash) and release him prior to March 19th, freeing up $3.5M of cap space. Otherwise, a full base salary restructure can free up $4.3M of cap space for the Bucs for 2023.

Behind (aside) him, 2022 3rd round pick Rachaad White put up formidable numbers in his rookie campaign, and likely finds more touches next season. His rookie deal contains 3 years, $3.5M non-guaranteed through 2025. 2020 3rd rounder Ke'Shawn Vaughn barely found the field in 2022, putting his $1.46M cap hit ($1.2M to be saved) on heavy notice.

Tennessee Titans

Status: Long Live the King

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$17.5M

28 year old Derrick Henry damn near posted 2,000 yards from scrimmage again, and he found the end zone as much as ever. A career high in fumbles is certainly worrisome, and a $16.3M cap hit for 2023 is definitely a problem, but it seems extremely likely that Henry is back in Tennessee next season in some capacity. A simple base salary restructure + 4 void years can free up $7.5M of cap space for the Titans - who may go one step further and just lock in their workhorse to a new contract altogether.

2022 4th rounder Hassan Haskins (3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed), & Julius Chestnut (1 year, $870k) could figure into the mix next season, while veterans Dontrell Hilliard & Trenton Cannon are slated for unrestricted free agency.

Washington Commanders

Status: Multiple Changes?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $19.4M

Brian Robinson (3 years, $3.5M non-guaranteed), Antonio Gibson (1 year, $1.2M non-guaranteed) & J.D. McKissic (1 year, $2.75M non-guaranteed) are all under contract for 2023, but the Commanders should be looking for more production out of this position going forward. Finding a trade partner for Gibson probably makes the most sense, while a $250,000 roster bonus for McKissic due March 19th could mean an early decision is made there as well.

Russell Wilson’s splashdown in Denver went about as poorly as possible, forcing many to ask the question - what now?

DISCLAIMER: The only correct answer to this question is, hire a new coach, and ride this thing out for a few more years. However, for the sake of answering all of the possible questions - we’ll entertain all options below.

The Basics

Wilson’s contract contains 6 years, $239M remaining. As of today, $67M of that cash is fully guaranteed, with another $40M of bonus proration bringing us to a real-time dead cap total of $107M. Wilson’s cap figure for 2023 is currently set at $22M (less than 10% of a projected $225M league salary cap).

(Again, this is all for hypothetical purposes only. Wilson will 100% be back in Denver next season with hopes that a new coaching staff can be the magic wand to immediately fix everything)

A March 2023 Release

$25M of base salary accelerates, $42M of unexercised option bonus accelerates, $40M of signing bonus proration accelerates.
2023 Dead Cap Hit: $107M ($67M of which is straight cash)

A Post June 1st Release

$25M of base salary accelerates, $22M of future unexercised option bonus accelerates, $60M of bonus proration is split between 2023/2024. They’d still owe him $67M cash, but the 2023 option bonus would have been exercised, allowing it to prorate for cap purposes.
Dead Cap Hits
2023: $61M
2024: $46M

A March 2023 Trade

Denver takes on $40M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $20M option bonus is exercised.

A new (crazy) team would acquire cap hits of:
2023: $12M
2024: $25.4M
2025: $45.4M
2026: $48.4M
2027: $53.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2023: $28M (guaranteed)
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

An Early March 2024 Release

$39M of base salary + $46M of bonus proration.
2024 Dead Cap Hit: $85M ($39M cash)

A Post June 1st Designation Release in 2024

$39M of base salary + $14M of bonus proration in 2024, $32M of 2025 bonus proration.
Dead Cap Hits
2024: $53M ($39M cash)
2025: $32M

A March 2024 Trade

Denver takes on $46M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $22M option bonus is exercised.

A new team would acquire cap hits of:
2024: $21.4M
2025: $41.4M
2026: $44.4M
2027: $49.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

Our Current Stance

This is a non-conversation. It’s possible we get to March 2025, and things are still as bad as they are today, and the Broncos convince the owner to pay him $37M cash to go away - but even then, even three Marches from now, we’re talking about $86.6M of dead cap.

A Post June 1st release in 2025 would mean dead cap hits of $55.4M in 2025, and another $31.2M in 2026.

The cleaner solution - the way this contract was actually meant to exist - is that the Broncos move on after the 2025 season, taking on a $31.2M dead cap hit, saving $27.2M of space, and continuing on with their lives.

If that feels like forever from now - it’s because it is.

As the 2023 NFL offseason closes in, Spotrac's Positional Breakdown series kicks off with a deep dive into the financial statuses of each team's quarterback position, including rostered players, remaining term & guarantees, and stability at the starting & backup roles.

RELATED: RB ANALYSIS

Arizona Cardinals

Status: Money Locked.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $22.7M

The GM who was extended prior to extending the QB this past summer is now likely to be fired. That’s about all you need to know as to how the quarterback situation is simmering in Arizona. Kyler Murray’s deal holds 6 years, $235M remaining on it, with 5 years, $189M all but fully guaranteed.

Colt McCoy remains under contract for 2023 on a 1 year, $3.75M ($5M cap hit) deal. If Murray’s ACL recovery carries into next fall, look for a slight redo on this contract to include performance bonuses to better reflect his temporary QB1 role.

Atlanta Falcons

Status: Wide Open.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $69M

Marcus Mariota’s tenure in Atlanta certainly feels over (left team + knee surgery). $12M of his $14.5M cap hit for 2023 can come off the books per a trade or release.

Desmond Ridder’s 3 year, $3.5M remaining rookie contract (non-guaranteed) will certainly keep him in the mix to compete for the 2023 job, though it certainly stands to reason that the Falcons will bring another option onto the roster in some capacity next spring.

Baltimore Ravens

Status: Big Payday or Big Trade.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $44M

Lamar Jackson has been Lamar Jackson this year, despite the annual tradition that is a lack of wide receiver talent + a slew of injuries across the Ravens’ roster. Jackson’s rookie contract will expire this winter, putting him in line for a franchise tag this coming February, almost certainly of the exclusive variety. This exclusive tag for QBs currently projects to cost north of $45M, and eliminates the possibility for other teams to negotiate with Jackson during his tagged window. He projects to a 6 year, $246M extension in our system currently, though anything short of Kyler Murray’s $189M guaranteed wouldn’t seem appropriate.

The Ravens don’t currently have a QB under contract for 2023.

Buffalo Bills

Status: Happily Locked In.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$3.5M

Josh Allen’s deal carries 6 years, $217.5M through 2028 with early guarantees built in through the 2025 season. His $39.7M cap hit for 2023 4th in the league, and probably gets restructured in the coming months, despite GM Brandon Beane’s reluctance to do so in many cases. Buffalo can free up over $21M with a full base salary restructure to Allen.

Allen is the only QB currently under contract in Buffalo for the 2023 campaign, as Case Keenum becomes an unrestricted free agent next March. A reunion there seems good for both parties.

Carolina Panthers

Status: Desperate & Looking.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $1.9M

Three quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker) split snaps for the Panthers in 2022. None of them are under contract in Carolina next year. Matt Corral (3 years, $3.5M non-guaranteed) will enter 2023 as the lone QB under contract in Carolina as he recovers from a Lisfranc injury.

It’s plausible that Sam Darnold has earned himself a small extension to compete for the 2023 job, while a Top 10 draft pick will also be in play here. Despite a lack of rostered QBs, the Panthers project to carry less than $2M of Top 51 cap space into March right now thanks to large (but restructurable) hits for DJ Moore, Taylor Moton, & Shaq Thompson + nearly $30M of dead cap.

Chicago Bears

Status: It’s Not Me, It’s You

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $120M

Justin Fields quieted a lot of doubters this year, as a new coaching regime has at least started to unlock his super powers. There’s still plenty of fringe around the edges to smooth out, but the focus this offseason won’t be on the QB position (but literally on every other area of the roster). Contractually, Fields holds 2 years, $5.5M + a 5th year option, and becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.

Trevor Siemian signed a 2 year deal this past March, leaving him on a 1 year, $1.965M deal ($2.465M cap hit) for 2023. He’s recovering from oblique surgery, so adding a body or two here definitely makes sense next spring.

Cincinnati Bengals

Status: GoFundMe.Bengals.com

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $48.8M

After a sluggish (recovering from appendectomy) start, Joe Burrow has rounded back into big boy status, and becomes a slam dunk to cash in this coming offseason. His representation should be pointing directly at Deshaun Watson’s deal with the Browns as the only correct offer, though the Bengals seem like the last franchise in the league that would be willing to go that route. He’s a 6 year, $260M player in our system, though another Super Bowl appearance this season could shatter that ceiling. It should be noted that Burrow’s rookie contract contains 1 year, $5.5M + a 5th year option remaining, so while an extension isn’t at all required - it kind of feels required.

Current backup Brandon Allen is slated for unrestricted free agency next year, and could be asked back at around his previous $1.5M mark.

Cleveland Browns

Status: Front Office Seeking Men in Black Neuralyzer

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $3.7M

2022 was always going to be weird. Even before Deshaun Watson was acquired, the turmoil with Baker Mayfield heading into the offseason was boiling over, and every team in the league knew it. Every decision thereafter can (and will) be questioned, though it’s only fair to give this a little time to simmer. Don’t worry - Watson’s contract offers plenty of it, as the 27 year old holds 4 years, $184M fully guaranteed through 2026, including an historic $54.9M cap hit in 2023. A full base salary restructure can drop it down to $19M, but there will be short-term future pain in pushing that cap out.

Kellen Mond (2 years, $2.4M non-guaranteed) is the only other rostered QB in 2023 currently. 

Dallas Cowboys

Status: Fine.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $6.6M

Dak Prescott’s deal has 2 years, $65M remaining on it through 2024 and is fully guaranteed at $31M for the 2023 season. His $49.1M cap hit next year ranks 2nd only to Deshaun Watson, and is very likely subjected to restructure. A full base salary conversion can free up over $23M of cap space for the Cowboys next year. Unless Dallas tries to get ahead of things right now (not entirely crazy), a new deal for Dak Prescott will be a focal point this time next season.

Youngster Will Grier carries a non-guaranteed $1.08M salary into 2023 and could very well become the new QB2 in Dallas if Cooper Rush finds a better situation next March.

Denver Broncos

Status: Cart Before the Horse

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15.4M

I know, I know, they gave up two firsts, two seconds, a late round swap and 3 players to acquire Russell Wilson - so an extension was all but necessary to justify the trade price, but it bears repeating for the 109th time: The Broncos could have paid Wilson $24M for 2022, then been faced with a non-guaranteed $27M for 2023. Instead, it was $57M cash this year and 3 years, $104M guaranteed now through 2025. Denver will try to band-aid this contract with a new coaching staff for 2023, but band-aid it will be.

Current backup Brett Rypien is slated for unrestricted free agency and with Wilson’s career falling apart, Denver could look to bring in a legitimate QB2 option for the next few seasons. 

Detroit Lions

Status: 2023 Fine (I think).

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $28.5M

The advanced metrics (or advanced coaches) have never liked Jared Goff, but he passed more than a few eye tests with the Lions this season. The 2 years, $52.2M (non-guaranteed) left on his deal doesn’t feel too daunting, especially for a team clearly turning a corner offensively. A few splashy draft picks & free agent signings on the defensive side of the ball, and Detroit could be a legitimate middle of the pack NFC contender.

Current backup Nate Sudfeld is slated for unrestricted free agency this March. Will the Lions draft a potential “next man up” in April?

Green Bay Packers

Status: It’s Just Easier To Assume He’s Returning

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $2.7M

I’m just going to keep this really easy and assume that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers love each other and aren’t even considering a divorce. His $31.6M cap hit for 2023 is tolerable, and the $59.15M cash to be earned is ridiculous, but happening (somewhere - I mean definitely in Green Bay).

Current backup Jordan Love becomes an instant must-watch candidate next March, as rumors have already swirled that it’s play me or trade me for 2023. The latter seems inevitable. Love holds a 1 year, $2.2M (fully guaranteed) contract + a 5th year option for 2024 that must be decided on by May 2023.

Houston Texans

Status: Bryce Young

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $47M

Davis Mills is probably going to get a few contracts as a viable backup in the league, but he was always a placeholder to get this franchise to the #1 pick. Bryce Young (assumedly) will sign a fully guaranteed 4 year contract + a 5th year option for 2027 next summer.

Both Kyle Allen & Jeff Driskel are slated for unrestricted free agency next March, but bringing in a QB with experience (either to start ahead of the drafted QB or to mentor his inaugural season) will be a vital move this offseason.

Indianapolis Colts

Status: Ralph Wiggum Meme of Choice

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $30M

Another veteran QB acquisition swing and a miss via Matt Ryan that lingers into the 2023 offseason thanks to a $12M guarantee for next season. It’s (slightly) possible that a trade partner is found, it’s definitely possible that Jim Irsay eats the $12M and outright releases Ryan, but it makes the most sense that a restructured contract is put in place for 2023 that makes his $12M cash, $18M total cap more efficient for the Colts.

Behind (or next to, or possibly in front of) Ryan, Nick Foles carries a 1 year, $3.6M contract into 2023, $1.5M of which is fully guaranteed. While, youngster Sam Ehlinger carries a 2 year, $2M (non-guaranteed) contract into the offseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Status: We’re Ok.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$17M

The Jacksonville offense as a whole is becoming more fun every week, and the emergence of Trevor Lawrence is a major reason why. The #1 overall pick carries 2 years, $9.6M + a 5th year option on his rookie contract, and won’t become extension eligible until after the 2023 campaign.

Current backup C.J. Beathard is slated for unrestricted free agency next March.

Kansas City Chiefs

Status: MVP Money Coming

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $23M

Now we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes be great with a true WR1 *(Tyreek Hill) and with a weapon by committee system. Translation, he’s great, which works out, because his contract holds 9 years, $414.5M remaining on it, with no clear and concise “out” for Kansas City at any point in time. Mahomes as “only” banked $63M cash across the first three years of this contract which is basically what he would have earned having played out his rookie contract plus a franchise tag. The meat & potatoes of the deal kick in now, as the 27 year old will see $120M cash over the next three seasons.

Mahomes’ 2023 cap hit currently rings in at $46.7M. The Chiefs tolerated a $35.8M figure in 2022, and with the salary cap rising significantly, could theoretically do the same next season. But there’s $27.5M to be saved in converting a roster bonus if they feel the need.

Longtime backup QB Chad Henne is playing out another 1 year deal in KC as he approaches 38 years of age. It may be time for the Chiefs to switch up their QB2 for the first time in 5 years.

Las Vegas Raiders

Status: Every Possible Possibility

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $34M

Derek Carr’s 2022 needed to at least resemble his past two seasons to help justify the 3 year, $121.5M extension he was handed this past April. Instead, he’s having his worst season in 5 years, despite a shiny new weapon in Davante Adams at his disposal. There’s a tiny world where the Raiders release Carr before February 15th, after which another $40M+ becomes fully guaranteed. Will Las Vegas trade those guarantees away to another franchise this spring? Our sources say it’s extremely likely.

Current backup Jarrett Stidham is a pending free agent (so the Raiders don’t exactly have Plan B for Carr ready and waiting in the wings).

UPDATE: The Raiders have benched Derek Carr for the remainder of 2022, putting him on track to be moved this offseason. If they can't put together a trade before February 15th (when $40M guarantees), expect an outright release for the 31 year old.

Los Angeles Chargers

Status: Pay the Man

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9.4M

Justin Herbet’s 2022 isn’t going to approach the fantastic 2021 performance he put in, but the jury’s already out on this decision. Herbert’s rookie contract holds 1 year, $4.2M + a 5th year option in 2024 that will certainly be exercised by the May deadline. He’s a $44M quarterback in our system currently, but as with Joe Burrow in Cincy, the financial sky is the limit.

Backups Chase Daniel & Easton Stick are pending free agents, so there’s a move to be made in that regard.

Los Angeles Rams

Status: Run it Back

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$1.9M

Matthew Stafford has been vocal about his plan to return from spinal cord contusion injury, so the Baker Mayfield conversations can dissipate. Stafford’s deal contains 3 years, $121.5M remaining including $57M that fully guarantees next March. At this point, it’s more likely he’s the Rams’ QB1 through 2025 than not.

Backup John Wolford is a restricted free agent (non-tender candidate) while Bryce Perkins is still an exclusive rights free agent. Look for the Rams to bring in a viable #2 this offseason.

Miami Dolphins

Status: Hold Please

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$6.7M

One of the tougher rooms to read right now as Tua Tagovailoa has shown greatness, averageness, & below averageness this season, plus three separate trips into concussion protocol. While he becomes extension eligible after the 2022 season, Tua’s financial future is likely in a holding pattern for now, as his physical condition is a must priority for both sides. He’s on a 1 year, $4.7M (guaranteed) rookie deal plus a 5th year option for 2024 that must be decided on this coming May.

Teddy Bridgewater is headed back to free agency, while 7th round pick Skylar Thompson remains on a 3 year, $1.1M (non-guaranteed) deal.

Minnesota Vikings

Status: Pay it Forward

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$7M

Kirk Cousins tacked on an extra 1 year, $35M guaranteed this past March, locking in his 2023 season - but nothing thereafter. A multi-year extension to keep the 34-year-old in Minnesota for the rest of his career is plausible this time around, deserving, and can help lower his current $36.25M cap hit next season.

Backup Nick Mullens is slated for unrestricted free agency.

New England Patriots

Status: Michael Scott Cringe Meme

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $54M

It’s not unfair to claim that Mac Jones took a giant step back in 2022, putting the position into a bit of flux for New England going forward. Jones is fully guaranteed at 2 years, $4.7M plus a 2025 5th-year option. For now it remains Mac’s job to lose heading into 2023.

Veteran Brian Hoyer is under contract on a 1 year, $2M deal ($1.4M guaranteed, $2.24M cap hit) through 2023 and should be back in the fold if he doesn’t hang them up first. 2022 4th round pick Bailey Zappe brings a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M rookie contract into the conversation as well.

New Orleans Saints

Status: More of the Same?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$57M

Barring a late season extension, QB1 Andy Dalton is headed to unrestricted free agency. The 35-year-old has been solid in 2022, completing 66% of his passes with a 95+ rating. Bringing him back on an incentive-based deal probably makes sense for a Saints franchise with no 1st round pick.

Jameis Winston is signed through 2023 on a $12.8M salary ($15.6M cap hit). $5.8M of it becomes fully guaranteed March 17th, and there’s an $11.2M dead cap hit to release him next spring. The Saints almost certainly move on here.

32-year-old Taysom Hill is fully guaranteed at $9.9M ($13.9M cap hit) through 2023 and could (finally) be a legitimate contender for the QB1 role.

New York Giants

Status: Keep With the Jones

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $58M

There’s still a deep dividing line between those who believe Daniel Jones should be allowed to walk into free agency this March, and those who believe he’s earned a 2nd contract in New York. Is a projected $32M franchise tag the happy compromise? Blake Bortles bagged a last minute 3 year, $54M deal in Jacksonville back in 2018. That $18M per year represented 10.1% of the league cap at the time. If we run this math on a projected $225M salary cap for 2023, we get Jones into a 3 year, $66M deal, with cap & cash flexibility for GM Joe Schoen & the Giants. It’s not a far reach if they can get their QB1 to buy in.

Backup QB Tyrod Taylor holds a 1 year, $5.5M deal through 2023, including $2.725M fully guaranteed now. His $6.9M cap hit is a bit high for a QB2, and while Schoen won’t ever be a huge salary restructure guy, this could be a candidate.

New York Jets

Status: Back to the Drawing Board

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15.9M

2021 #2 overall pick Zach Wilson appears to have played himself out of town this season. His fully guaranteed 2 year, $9.25M contract contains $20.7M of dead cap next March, so an outright release makes little sense, but including him in a larger trade, or tossing in a draft pick to ship him out to another QB-needy team seems very much in play.

Mike White is finishing out a $2.54M restricted tender in 2022, set for unrestricted free agency next March. The Jets will likely look to swing bigger at the QB position this offseason, but bringing back White on a modified starter contract definitely holds logic. Mitch Trubisky’s 2 year, $14M deal seems a decent starting point.

37-year old Joe Flacco heads back to free agency where his future remains very much in question.

Philadelphia Eagles

Status: Brinks Truck

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $10.5M

Jalen Hurts’ late season injury probably cost him a legitimate shot to snag away the MVP award from Patrick Mahomes, but it doesn’t sour our impression of the 24 year old. He was given an opportunity to sink or swim with a greatly constructed Eagles’ roster this season, and he answered every bell, completing 67% of his passes for a 104+ rating. Hurts becomes extension eligible for the first time this spring, and the Eagles’ front office loves handing out early contracts whenever possible. He’s a near $46M per year player in our system currently, putting him in line for Kyler Murray’s 5 year, $230.5M deal in Arizona.

Backup Gardner Minshew is slated for unrestricted free agency, leaving youngster Ian Book (2 years, $1.95M non-guaranteed) as the only other QB under contract in 2023.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Status: Dark Horse Splash?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.2M

Kenny Pickett’s rookie contract contains 3 years, $5.94M fully guaranteed + a 5th year option in 2026. It was a herky jerky first year for Pickett, and the Steelers aren’t the type of franchise to sit around and wait. Don’t be surprised if a veteran move is at least entertained here this offseason.

QB1A Mitchell Trubisky carries a 1 year, $8M (non-guaranteed) salary ($10.62M cap hit) into 2023. With no early bonuses or triggers, Pittsburgh can keep him rostered through the offseason as an insurance policy, but the $8M of cap to be freed up via trade or release could come in handy early on. Longtime backup Mason Rudolph is slated for unrestricted free agency.

San Francisco 49ers

Status: If it Ain’t Broke

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.5M

Oh who knows anymore. Why would this team pay for a QB at all in their current iteration? And why would this front office even consider “advancing” this offense with a more versatile QB like Trey Lance? The grass isn’t always greener.

Contractually, Trey Lance holds a 2 year, $9M fully guaranteed rookie contract plus a 5th-year option for 2025. Until further notice, it’s his gig once he’s healthy enough to play.

Brock Purdy’s stabilizing performance down the stretch probably bagged him the backup role in 2023. His non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M remaining contract certainly fits the value bill.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo is set to hit the open market this March for the first time in his NFL career. Despite a foot fracture that shelved his 2022 campaign, he’ll have plenty of offers to choose from. He carries a $35M valuation into the offseason.

Seattle Seahawks

Status: Now What?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $50M

The shine has worn off a bit down the stretch, but Geno Smith’s bust to boom 2022 is a true revelation. Now what to do with his expiring contract though? Everyone under the sun (ourselves included) were putting him into a $30M+ contract 4 weeks ago. Is a $32M franchise tag too rich? The better question might be, if Smith walks into free agency, just how many suitors are there? This just might be the best, singular situation for the 32 year old, and he likely knows it. We’ll keep things easy for now and just put him on the Daniel Jones bridge contract path. 3 years, around $65M, but really just a 1 year guarantee at signing.

Backup Drew Lock is headed into free agency with very little buzz.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Status: Bueller? Bueller?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$42M

Tom Brady finally looks human 23 seasons later, leaving us with absolutely no idea what comes next. Does he walk into his cherry Fox Sports gig? Does he try to pick up the pieces with a better run franchise? A return to Tampa in 2023 seems the least likely option, which means he’ll leave a $35.1M dead cap parting gift to the Bucs, thanks to void years built into his latest extension.

Kyle Trask holds 2 years, $2.5M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie contract, while veteran Blaine Gabbert is slated for unrestricted free agency. The Bucs don’t have a legitimate QB1 plan for 2023 currently.

Tennessee Titans

Status: Dark Horse Splash?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$16.5M

Before 2022, Ryan Tannehill had no chance of sticking around Tennessee for the final year of his contract. That sentiment has changed (and not because he lit up the stat boards this season). Tannehills non-guaranteed $27M for 2023 comes with a $36.6M cap hit. A small restructure should clean things up a bit while not damaging their future caps too much. With that said, Tennessee could very much be a landing spot for Jimmy Garoppolo, Jordan Love, etc… this offseason, which then puts Tannehill’s contract on notice. The Titans can free up $17.8M of cap space with a Pre June 1st release of their veteran QB.

Backup Malik Willis didn’t exactly instill confidence in the position going forward, but his 3 year, $3.5M non-guaranteed remaining rookie deal offers little to no risk from here out. Will Tennessee try to find their next future QB this offseason, or is that plan still a year away?

Washington Commanders

Status: Better Required

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $20M

The Carson Wentz experiment is most likely over in Washington, as the 30 year old carries 2 years, $53.3M, none of it guaranteed - and no dead cap sitting against it. With $9M of compensation set to guarantee March 17th, it’ll be an early decision for the Commanders. Washington could stand to find an upgrade at this position with a surrounding roster that’s rounding into form.

QB1A Taylor Heinicke is slated for unrestricted free agency, and probably doesn’t have much of a market outside of Washington. Is another short term incentive-laden extension good for both parties? Last year’s 5th round pick Sam Howell remains rostered at 3 years, $2.95M, non-guaranteed.

The 2022 NFL Pro Bowl rosters were announced Wednesday evening and the list includes a healthy dose of experienced, high-paid talent. In fact, of the 17 position groups represented here, 11 of them saw the highest average paid player at that position get selected this season.

Also

• 13 of the players selected this year are pending unrestricted free agency next March.
• 3 members of the Eagles & Chiefs offensive lines were selected.
• Only two 1st-year rookies (Sauce Gardner, Tariq Woolen) were selected.

Here’s a full breakdown of selections by position, including the remaining contract & free agency years for each player. 

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith banks a $500,000 bonus for his selection, setting up what should be a massive pay raise over his $4M 2022 campaign. The Eagles and Bengals likely back up the brinks trucks for Hurts & Burrow respectively this winter as well, with each hovering around the $45M valuation mark currently. The Top 4 highest average paid QBs missed the Pro Bowl this year.

Running Backs

4 of the 6 running backs selected are playing on expiring contracts, set to combine for what will be a gigantic halfback free agency - money excluded. 

Fullbacks

The first and third highest average paid fullbacks were selected this year in a position that still holds plenty of value in the league, though the money hasn’t ever accounted for it. 

Wide Receivers

4 of the Top 6 highest average paid WRs make the list, including the #1 overall in Hill, while Chase, Jefferson, & Lamb all become extension eligible after the 2022 season. McLaurin gets a $250,000 bump on next year’s salary, while Adams & Hill lock in $250,000 bonuses for their selections.

Tight Ends

3 of the Top 5 highest average paid TEs get the nod, while an extension for Hockenson in Minnesota this winter seems imminent. Andrews tacks on a $250,000 bonus to his 2022 compensation for this nod.

Offensive Tackles

Will the Chiefs double tag Brown or give him the big extension? A new rookie QB in Houston probably means Tunsil gets another big payday this winter, while Tristan Wirfs becomes extension eligible for the first time in Tampa. Armstead grabs a $650,000 bonus for his selection. 

Offensive Guards

A few usual suspects here, but Dickerson gets the nod in just his 2nd NFL season, while the Falcons are likely poised to back a brinks truck up for Lindstrom this winter.

Offensive Centers

Humphrey becomes the 3rd member of the Chiefs’ O-Line to get the nod, while Kelce becomes #3 for the Eagles as well, as does the highest average paid center in Ragnow. Mitch Morse bags an extra $200,000 for his selection.

Defensive Ends

Another highest average paid player (Garrett) makes the list, while Bosa & Burns probably don’t take the field next offseason before a shiny new gigantic contract is under their belt.

Defensive Tackles

Donald makes it yet ANOTHER highest average paid player to get selected this year. Williams, Simmons & Lawrence are all smoldering extension candidates, though all 3 teams have a QB position to address that could roadblock an immediate payday.

Outside Linebackers

Shocker: The highest average paid OLB (Watt) made the cut. Mack might be a restructure extension candidate this winter due to some funky cap numbers and lack of guarantees, while Parsons will need to wait another year in Dallas to get his bag. Reddick earns a $500,000 increase on an already guaranteed option bonus for next season.

Inside Linebackers

Baltimore’s current ILB & their previous ILB both get selected, while Warner shows he’s worth every dime of the top of the market extension SF gave him recently. Davis earns a $500,000 bonus for his nod.

Cornerbacks

Two rookies get the nod here (Gardner, Woolen), as does yet another highest average paid player (Alexander). Diggs and Slay are extension candidates this winter. Howard is on his way to a $1M incentive per his selection, while Humphrey bags an extra $250,000 for his.

Safeties

The Top 2 highest average paid safeties (James & Fitzpatrick) hit the roster this year, while Jordan Poyer grabs an extra $500,000 in Buffalo, and sets himself up for what should be a very rewarding pending free agency.

Special Teams

Plenty of players set to hit the open market or lock in extensions this winter, while Justin Tucker joins only Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, & Patrick Mahomes as 2022 Pro Bowlers with contracts that run through at least 2028. Duvernay now qualifies for a 4th-year contract escalator.

As the holidays approach, nearly every notable MLB free agent has landed into a new contract for the 2023 season. In fact, only 21 players who accumulated a WAR of 1.0 or greater last season remain on the available big board.

BEST AVAILABLE FREE AGENTS

Unsigned MLB free agents who posted a 1.0+ WAR in the 2022 season. ALL AVAILABLE FREE AGENTS

THE FREE AGENT SHORTSTOP RECAP

With Dansby Swanson now off of the market, here’s a final scoreboard look at how things shook out for the star players, who combined for $1.107B in fully guaranteed contracts.

• Carlos Correa (MIN -> SF): 13 years, $350M
• Trea Turner (LAD -> PHI): 11 years, $300M
• Xander Bogaerts (BOS -> SD): 11 years, $280M
• Dansby Swanson (ATL -> CHC): 7 years, $177M

One interesting takeaway? None of these shortstops returned to their 2022 team.

UPDATED TAX PAYROLLS

Spotrac has been tracking projected Opening Day tax payrolls since the start of the offseason, from the Mets historic figure down to the Athletics doing Oakland things. Recent signings now position 11 teams north of the $200M mark, with the Cubs & White Sox as the latest members of this club.

Four teams still remain over the $233M tax threshold, with the Padres/Phillies still in the first taxpayer tier, the Yankees handedly in tier 3, and the Mets shattering the glass ceiling of the fourth tier.

ADDITIONAL TAX PAYROLL PROJECTIONS

TRADE MARKET HEATING UP?

Generally the largest offseason trades come at or right after the early December winter meetings. But a few names are still being floated out with interest. We’ve detailed a number of those Winter Trade Possibilities here.

12 MLB Trade Candidates heading toward the new year, including current & future financial ramifications & potential destinations for each.

Rafael Devers (3B, BOS, 26)

1 year, est. $18M for 2023, 2024 free agent

Devers should be the prototypical position player to pay and utilize as your cornerstone pieceSS Xander Bogaert already out the door, and SP Nathan Eovaldi likely next, Boston’s stock is still dropping - not rising. They’re in the process of trying to negotiate an extension here, but based on Xander’s offers, an end game seems unlikely. If he hits the trade block, Devers will draw blockbuster offers from most of the league.

James McCann (C, NYM, 32)

2 years, $24M

This might be a bit of wishful thinking here, but there’s no question the Mets would like to get out from under this contract as quickly as possible - especially with top prospect Francisco Alvarez now purchased, & Tomas Nido (2 more years of control) in the running for a Gold Glove. New York will be looking to retain or replace 3/4s of a rotation, half a bullpen, and a centerfielder this offseason, so paying down McCann’s deal to get back a hole plugger might be worth their time.

Liam Hendriks (RP, CWS, 33)

2 years, $30M

It’s unclear who the White Sox are trying to be in 2023, but clearly getting out of $30M is more important than 35+ saves a year. Contenders will want the White Sox to eat some of this salary, but this feels like a move that gets made.

An Arizona Outfielder

Teams have called about Daulton Varsho (CF, est. $2.7M in 2023, 2027 free agent), but the asking price rightfully remains extremely high. Youngster Alek Thomas (23, CF, pre-arb) could be the piece that moves, and should bring back a price to sets up this team to at least consider getting back into divisional contention in 2-3 years. 

A Blue Jays Catcher

Danny Jansen (28, estimated $3.6M, 2025 free agent), Alejandro Kirk (24, pre-arb, 2027 free agent), & Gabriel Moreno (23, pre-arb, 2030 free agent) make for quite a 1-2-3 punch in Toronto. Shedding Jansen’s number with a near taxpayer roster right now makes the most business sense, but probably brings back the smallest haul. 

Corbin Burnes (SP, MIL, 28)

Est. $12.5M for 2023, Arbitration thru 2024

He’s probably not “officially” on the trade block until an over the top offer comes in. Should the Giants be that team? With Carlos Correa now in the fold, can top prospect SS Marco Luciano become a centerpiece starting point to get this kind of trade talk rolling? Rodon’s 6 year, $162M deal is a foundation for his next contract.

Bryan Reynolds (CF, PIT, 27)

$6.75M in 2023, Arbitration thru 2025

With plenty of team control remaining, there’s no rush for Pittsburgh to trade Reynolds, but there’s always a price. This feels like an early spring move after teams assess their new rosters a little bit. He projects to Brandon Nimmo’s recent 8 year $160M deal in NY.

Carlos Carrasco (SP, NYM, 35)

1 year, $14M + $1M trade bonus

Cookie had his $14M option exercised for 2023, but it feels like that was more of a backup plan for the Mets - who added bodies all around him in the rotation this past month. Teams that missed out on Rodon/Eovaldi down the stretch here will have interest.

Dylan Carlson (CF, STL, 24)

Pre-Arb, 2027 free agent

The Cardinals have a surplus in the outfield - even after trading Harrison Bader at the last deadline. The centerfield market is smoldering, and in demand, right now, so a youngster with big upside could bring back a strong haul to St. Louis. Poaching an arm or two from Houston makes sense here.

Cal Quantrill (SP, CLE, 27)

Est. $5M for 2023, Arbitration thru 2025

Quantrill has now posted back-to-back-to-back strong seasons, raising his value to an all-time high. So why move him? The Guardians have 10 starting pitchers at or very close to MLB ready. They can keep the gravy train moving with an annual sell high move like this, especially before Quantrill gets too expensive.

Pablo Lopez (SP, MIA, 26)

Est. $6M for 2023, Arbitration thru 2024

Lopez was highly coveted at this past August deadline, but the Marlins were looking to be blown away with an offer (rightfully so). Lopez has now posted back-to-back-to-back seasons that prove he’s worthy of top rotation action & money. If the Marlins aren’t willing to be that team, striking on a deal this winter (with two years of control remaining) could prove to bring back a franchise-altering haul. Lopez projects to a 6 year, $110M extension in our system currently.

Gleyber Torres (INF, 26)

Est. $9M for 2023, 2024 Free Agent

Torres projects to be the Yankees’ Opening Day starting second baseman, but shedding his projected $9M arbitration salary this season could be of some business importance. The White Sox make a little sense here, especially as they might have a reliever to send back to NY.

Carlos Correa's newly minted $350,000,000 contract from the San Francisco Giants further brings into focus just how superstar contracts in MLB are going to continue to work - despite sharp increases in tax thresholds in the latest CBA. The 28-year old signed a 13 year contract that runs through his age 40 season, tying him with Bryce Harper & Giancarlo Stanton for the 2nd longest contracts in MLB history. Fernando Tatis, Jr.'s 14 year, $340M deal with the Padres remains the longest ever. We'll focus briefly on the twenty one MLB contracts of 10 years or more, with additional thoughts on the five 9-year contracts as well.

The Mike Trout Mountain
Despite a huge run of blockbuster contracts over the past 2 years, nobody has even approached the apex that is Mike Trout's money. Trout's $426.5M extension back in 2019 is still $61.5M more than any other contract. In fact, across the 4 major American sports, only Patrick Mahomes' $450M deal in Kansas City carries a higher total value than Trout (though the latter is fully guaranteed).

Positionally Speaking
11 of the 21 10+ year contracts belong to shortstops - 12 if you include Manny Machado. 5 of these deals belong(ed) to outfielders, 2 are 1st basemen, 2 are 3rd basemen, and Robinson Cano remains the only 2nd baseman of this elite list. Is the shortstop still as valuable as it was a decade ago? Will the unviersal DH start to make these types of contracts available to more positions?

The Twilight Years
MLB has seen 4 9+ year contracts this free agent season, totaling $1.29B. Three of those deals (Correa, Turner, Bogaerts) carry through the player's age 40 season. Aaron Judge's deal runs through his age 39 season. This is a departure from a recent run that carried end years at or around the age 37 season, as the Cano/Pujols/Cabrera deals really brought front offices across the league back down to earth. So why the sudden change of philsophy? Is it that teams are willing to take a chance on an extra $25M+ salary or two, versus having to deal with a potential luxury tax penalty scenario if the contract were shorter? Is it that players still feel like this is their one and only time to strike financially in this sport, and getting to age 40 is the ideal trophy?

Champion Pedigree
It's a long season, and a 26+ man roster, but generally speaking superstars in MLB get to the finish line at least once in their career. But does it happen more regularly before or after their big pay day? As with everything in sports, the results vary - but with this dataset specifically, a few notable points can be pulled out. Of the 26 contracts we're referencing here (9+ year deals), 9 (36%) of the players NEVER went to a World Series, 4 more went, but never won, and the remaining 13 (half) have at least one championship under their belt. Of those 13 World Series winners, only 4 won a World Series while playing on their big contract (Betts, Harper, A-Rod, Jeter x3). A large majority of players here were paid after winning a championship - and then never did it again.

All-Time 10+ Year MLB Contracts

All-Time 9 Year MLB Contracts

Related Links

• All-Time MLB Contracts
• MLB Free Agency
• MLB Team Payrolls

Starting Pitchers

Carlos Rodon (30)

Rodon has been rumored to all the big fish this winter, with the Yankees being the latest to put their ante into the pot. There might be a 7 year, $210M deal in his future.

Nathan Eovaldi (32)

The recent deal for Chris Bassitt probably takes the Blue Jays out of contention for Eovaldi, but he’ll be a (lesser) fall back plan for teams that swing and miss on Rodon. Bassitt’s $21M per year deal is a likely price point.

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Relief Pitchers

Adam Ottavino (37)

The Mets are poised to flip about 60% of their bullpen this offseason, with Ottavino being one of the more notable names on the market. The Phillies & Angels are prime landing spots, while a 2 year deal in the $12M range probably makes sense.

Matt Moore (33)

The hybrid pitcher is probably best suited as a middle reliever from here out, and he’s a worthy consideration based on 2022 numbers. Can he double his $2.5M salary from last season?

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1st Basemen

Trey Mancini (30)

Mancini started the offseason with an $18M projection, but the market for players of his type has fizzled out of the gate. He’ll likely need to consider something in the $12M-$14M range if he’s dead set on a multi-year contract. The Giants and Twins have needs, but don’t rule out a return to Baltimore by any means.

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2nd Basemen

Jean Segura (32)

Segura was a declining piece for the World Champion Phillies, but it makes sense for him to latch on to another contender for both depth and experience. The Blue Jays seem an excellent fit, with a 2 year, $10M valuation currently attached to him.

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Shortstop

Carlos Correa (28)

The biggest name left on the market is still making the rounds, with ties to San Francisco, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Chicago, & back to Minnesota all publicly available. It won’t be long before our next $300M+ contract is on the books.

Dansby Swanson (28)

Swanson actually hit more homers and carried a slightly higher WAR (5.57) than Correa last season, but he projects to sign a deal around half (6 years, $150Mish) of what the latter will bag. The Cubs seem to be the early favorites in the clubhouse, but don’t rule out a last minute matching offering from the Braves.

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3rd Base

Brandon Drury (30)

A complete 180 last season puts Drury’s offseason value near the $10M mark. Is there a 3 for $30M deal for him from Milwaukee or the Cubs?

Justin Turner (38)

A return to LA hasn’t been ruled out, but if Turner is seeking a multi-year guarantee, he’ll probably need to land elsewhere (MIL, DET, SF). The 38 year old still carries an $8M value in our system. 

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Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi (28)

The Yankees never really got the look they wanted from their big trade deadline acquisition, so a reunion makes sense. The 28 year old carries a $17M+ valuation, but with teams like Houston also involved, that price may increase.

Michael Conforto (29)

Missed all of 2022 with a shoulder injury but is still plenty valued on the open market. The Blue Jays, Cubs, & Rangers all make sense here, while a $20M total value guarantee is probably about right as he resets his career.

Michael Brantley (35)

Brantley’s injury-riddled 2022 impacted the Astros’ down the stretch, but that doesn’t mean they’ve quit the veteran outfielder. Plenty of big names (Atlanta, Toronto, St. Louis) have shown interest

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Catchers

Jorge Alfaro (29)

Alfaro was a 10+ HR player just a few years ago, but the power numbers have fallen off. The Rockies, Astros, and Giants all need help here, and something around the $2M mark won’t be too risky.

Gary Sanchez (30)

Still found a way to mash 16 HRs last season despite an on base percentage that continues to slide. There will be plenty of teams looking for a HR bat toward the tail end of free agency, and Sanchez at around the $5M mark will fit the bill.

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Designated Hitters

J.D. Martinez (35)

Teams are avoiding DHs like the plague right now, simply valuing every other position before “settling”. Someone’s going to be settling for a really nice player in Martinez, who carries a $15M valuation in our system despite the age and obvious power decline.

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It's December 9th, so we're only 11 months away from the 2023 tax window closing, but it's still the perfect time to assess our projected tax payrolls for each MLB team. At present time, 4 teams (NYM, NYY, PHI, SD) currently project north of the $233M threshold.

Last year's CBA instituted four tax tiers that affect the final bill. This year, those tiers range as so:

1. +$233M -> $253M
2. +$253M -> $273M
3. +$273M -> $293M
4. +$293M

The Padres & Phillies currently reside in Tier 1, the Yankees in Tier 2, & the Mets (handedly) live in Tier 4 - a tier named after the Mets' new owner. The Padres are set to be 3-peat tax offenders, but are only slightly over the Tier 1 threshold right now. The Phillies are projected to be repeat offenders but also currently live in the lowest tax penalty tier for 2023. The Yankees will be tax offender repeaters, and have already pushed into the second tax tier for 2023. The Mets will be tax repeaters for 2023, and are in line for the maximum amount of surcharge penalty - obviously. 

All-MLB 1st Team

The 2022 1st team is comprised of 4 members of the champion Astros and combines for $261M of 2022 payroll salary. Four of these players were slated for free agency after the 2022 season, though three (Turner, Verlander, Diaz) have already re-upped. 

Catcher

J.T. Realmuto (PHI, 31)
2022 Salary: $23.875M
Position Rank: 1st
Remaining: 3 years, $71.6M

1st Baseman

Paul Goldschmidt (STL, 35)
2022 Salary: $26.3M
Position Rank: 2nd
Remaining: 2 years, $52M

2nd Baseman

Jose Altuve (HOU, 32)
2022 Salary: $29M
Position Rank: 1st
Remaining: 2 years, $52M

Shortstop

Trea Turner (LAD, 29)
2022 Salary: $21M
Position Rank: 4th
Remaining: Free Agent (signed 11 years, $300M w/ PHI)

3rd Baseman

Manny Machado (SD, 30)
2022 Salary: $32M
Position Rank: 3rd
Remaining: 6 years, $180M

Outfielders

Mike Trout (LAA, 31)
2022 Salary: $37.2M
Position Rank: 1st
Remaining: 8 years, $283.6M

Mookie Betts (LAD, 29)
2022 Salary: $22.5M
Position Rank: 6th
Remaining: 10 years, $315M

Aaron Judge (NYY, 30)
2022 Salary: $19M
Position Rank: 9th
Remaining: Free Agent

Designated Hitter

Yordan Alvarez (HOU, 25)
2022 Salary: $764k
Position Rank: 21st
Remaining: 6 years, $115M

Starting Pitchers

Justin Verlander (HOU, 39)
2022 Salary: $25M
Position Rank: 8th
Remaining: Free Agent (signed 2 years, $86.6M w/ NYM)

Shohei Ohtani (LAA, 28)
2022 Salary: $5.5M
Position Rank: 69th
Remaining: 1 year, $30M

Sandy Alcantara (MIA, 26)
2022 Salary: $3.8M
Position Rank: 84th
Remaining: 5 years, $70M

Framber Valdez (HOU, 28)
2022 Salary: $3M
Position Rank: 91st
Remaining: 3 arbitration years

Alek Manoah (TOR, 24)
2022 Salary: $730k
Position Rank: 140th
Remaining: 5 years of control

Relief Pitchers

Edwin Diaz (NYM, 28)
2022 Salary: $10.2M
Position Rank: 10th
Remaining: Free Agent (signed 5 years, $102M w/ NYM)

Emmanuel Clase (CLE, 24)
2022 Salary: $1.9M
Position Rank: 94th
Remaining: 6 years, $34.5M

All-MLB 2nd Team

The Dodgers carry three players on the 2022 2nd-team roster, while Shohei Ohtani earns his 2nd berth of the year as a designated hitter (1st Team Starting Pitcher). The players combine for $210M of 2022 payroll salary, while the entire roster remains under contract or team control in 2023.

Catcher

Will Smith (LAD, 27)
2022 Salary: $730k
Position Rank: 51st
Remaining: 3 years of arbitration

1st Baseman

Freddie Freeman (LAD, 32)
2022 Salary: $27M
Position Rank: 1st
Remaining: 5 years, $135M

2nd Baseman

Andres Gimenez (CLE, 23)
2022 Salary: $706k
Position Rank: 47th
Remaining: 5 years of control

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor (NYM, 28)
2022 Salary: $34.1M
Position Rank: 2nd
Remaining: 9 years, $306.9M

3rd Baseman

Nolan Arenado (STL, 31)
2022 Salary: $35M
Position Rank: 2nd
Remaining: 5 years, $144M

Outfielders

Kyle Schwarber (PHI, 29)
2022 Salary: $19M
Position Rank: 9th
Remaining: 3 years, $60M

Julio Rodriguez (SEA,
2022 Salary: $2.6M
Position Rank: 69th
Remaining: 12 years, $209M

Kyle Tucker (HOU, 25)
2022 Salary: $764k
Position Rank: 114th
Remaining: 3 years of arbitration

Designated Hitter

Shohei Ohtani (LAA, 28)
2022 Salary: $5.5M
Position Rank: 21st
Remaining: 6 years, $115M

Starting Pitchers

Max Scherzer (NYM, 37)
2022 Salary: $43.3M
Position Rank: 1st
Remaining: 2 years, $86.6M

Aaron Nola (PHI, 29)
2022 Salary: $15.5M
Position Rank: 25th
Remaining: 1 year, $16M

Julio Urias (LAD, 25)
2022 Salary: $8M
Position Rank: 49th
Remaining: 1 arbitration year

Max Fried (ATL, 28)
2022 Salary: $6.85M
Position Rank: 58th
Remaining: 2 arbitration years

Dylan Cease (CHW, 26)
2022 Salary: $750k
Position Rank: 136th
Remaining: 3 arbitration years

Relief Pitchers

Ryan Pressly (HOU, 33)
2022 Salary: $10M
Position Rank: 11th
Remaining: 3 years, $42M

Ryan Helsley (STL, 27)
2022 Salary: $722k
Position Rank: 170th
Remaining: 3 arbitration years