Early Valuations for Top NFL Free Agents

Michael GinnittiDecember 04, 2022

As the clock turns to December, our focus begins to shift toward the 2023 offseason, including an early look at notable players from each NFL team set to hit free agency next March.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Free Agents | Market Valuations

ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Cardinals' offensive line has battled injuries and father time this year. It'll be a point of emphasis this offseason, especially since the QB is locked in for $200M.

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ATLANTA FALCONS

Keeping McGary in the fold seems crucial as the Falcons reconsider their QB1.

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BALTIMORE RAVENS

Lamar seems destined for a $40M exclusive franchise tag, while the defensive is likely in for an injection of youth this offseason.

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BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills may in fact just keep everyone. Edmunds seems a lock to return in some fashion, and Poyer's value to the defense is still at an all-time high.

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CAROLINA PANTHERS

Will they rip the band-aid all the way off? It's not inconceivable that Darnold returns on a team-friendly deal to bridge another transition.

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CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears turned a corner this season but still need a big-spending offseason to take the next step. Nearly every position but QB1 is on the bubble.

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CINCINNATI BENGALS

Will the Bengals pay to keep this secondary intact, or will they continue to replace it via draft picks? 

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CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns appear poised to completely redo the interior of their offensive & defensive lines this March.

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DALLAS COWBOYS

With Zeke Elliott's contract on the bubble, will Dallas replace it with a new one for Pollard, or is it a total start over at running back?

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DENVER BRONCOS

Tell me if you've heard this before: Russell Wilson needs a better offensive line & running game to improve his production.

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DETROIT LIONS

Williams has been a vital piece to the run game and should be considered for an extension, while most of Detroit's offseason will focus on a defensive rebuild.

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GREEN BAY PACKERS

Most of the weapons, the QB1, & the Left Tackle are all major question marks heading into the offseason. 

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HOUSTON TEXANS

With eyes on the #1 pick and another Top 10 pick next year, the Texans will be looking to build this thing up quickly. Generally that comes with an expensive bolstering of the offensive line, a much expected outcome this spring for Houston.

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indy's loaded with big contracts, but keeping Ngakoue seems vital - despite his likely price point. A weapon or two are certainly on the docket this March.

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Jags turned a corner in 2022, especially offensively. Smoot's price point may surprise some, but he's excelled on the edge.

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Orlando Brown hasn't produced as a market resetting left tackle, but the Chiefs may need to comply - unless a 2nd franchise tag ($19.9M) is in the cards.

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Jacobs' value has skyrocketed this season, and he may be looking for a fresh start with that payday. Moreau should be paid as if he'll be replacing Waller soon.

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The Chargers offseason outlook is fairly quiet, outside of that whole $300M extension forthcoming to Justin Herbert.

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LOS ANGELES RAMS

Rapp has been an excellent run-stuffing defensive back, but will the Rams continue to pile on contracts in their current state?

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MIAMI DOLPHINS

Gesicki doesn't seem long for this roster in 2023, but Jeff Wilson can certainly play himself into an extension by the time 2022 is said and done.

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Bradbury, Peterson & Tomlinson have all played themselves into the extension candidate mix, or nice free agent deals.

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Harris seems a lock to find a new home for 2023, while the Patriots may need to overpay to keep CB Jones off the open market.

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Will the Saints keep trying to patch this thing together? Harty should be a key versatile weapon signing for a 2023 contender, while productive DT's are now back in demand.

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NEW YORK GIANTS

The QB1, RB1, & current WR1 are all set to hit the open market this March. It's realistic that all three walk.

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NEW YORK JETS

The Jets turned a corner in 2022 and should continue to upgrade via all channels. Will they give Mike White a Jameis Winston type deal to compete for QB1 next year?

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Gardner-Johnson was one of the best safeties in the NFL before his injury, and he'll be paid like it this march. Philly's defense has expiring contracts all over the place.

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Sutton probably played himself into an extension, but a lot of Pittsburgh's defense will be addressed in 2023 - but not before the offensive line is.

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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The rumblings of a Jimmy G return for 2023 are already picking up steam, and rightfully so. How many of these expiring contracts can they feasibly retain?

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

It's hard to imagine Geno Smith playing anywhere else in 2023, but in what manner he returns is worth following. Seattle will be in on every available pass rusher this spring (especially at the top of the draft).

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Brady's tenure in Tampa seems over, but is his NFL career? Keeping David in the fold seems vital if the Bucs bring in a vet QB to try to keep this ship afloat.

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TENNESSEE TITANS

It seems more and more likely that Ryan Tannehill gets one more year with the Titans, so upgrading elsewhere should very well be on the table.

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WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Commanders D (even without Chase Young) has held the fort down, putting Payne in a big-time extension window. Will Heinicke score a Blake Bortles type extension to man the ship a little longer?

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Breaking down Jacob deGrom's New $185M Contract

Michael GinnittiDecember 03, 2022

The Texas Rangers made the first big splash of the MLB offseason when the landed starting pitcher Jacob deGrom to the tune of 5 years, $185M. deGrom was rumored to be in touch with a number of teams this fall, and it was recently reported that he turned down a 3 year, near $120M offer to return to the Mets, the team that drafted him #272 overall back in 2010.

deGrom’s recent timeline is riddled with injury history, including issues to his shoulder & back the past season and a half in NY. These concerns certainly factored into the Mets (and probably a few other) offers coming in with a shorter term, despite his desire for a 5 year deal.

The Rangers complied, swooping in with a $37M per year guarantee, a full no-trade clause, and the added bonus of being in a state that includes no income tax.

THE CONTRACT BREAKDOWN

deGrom’s new deal is about as straightforward as they come. He’ll cash $30M this coming season, $40M each of 2024 & 2025, then $38M & $37M respectively through the 2027 campaign. There’s a $37M option for the 2028 season that has been referenced as “conditional”. It’s safe to assume this begins as a club option, but can convert to a player option if deGrom hits certain thresholds (innings, games started, less than days on the injured list, etc…) The details of this option are not yet confirmed, but it contains no guaranteed money up front.

deGrom’s $30M payout this year is $10M more than he’s ever made in a single season ($20M in 2021). In total, this new contract raises his guaranteed earnings on the field to over $310M.

HOW IT RANKS

At $37M per year, deGrom becomes the 2nd highest average paid player in MLB history (for a minute), behind old teammate Max Scherzer ($43.3M).

His $185M total value ranks 18th in the league currently, 3rd amongst starting pitchers (Cole, Strasburg).

THE RANGERS IMPACT

The Rangers continue a spending spree that saw them pile up $600M in new contracts last offseason. Texas now has $685M locked in to Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom, & Marcus Semien, and when you factor in Martin Perez’s $19.6M signed qualifying offer, these four players now represent 49% of their allotted tax threshold in 2023.

It’s clear that the Rangers are thinking big here, and they may not be done. Texas currently projects to a $188M tax payroll for 2023 when factoring in estimated arbitration salaries & pre-arbitration players to fill out a 40-man roster. This leaves them with $45M of tax space to work with - plenty of room to add a few notable names. 

THE METS IMPACT

It’s clear the Mets were willing to overpay to keep their longtime ace - but not for long. When on the mound, deGrom was a $45M player in our system - but when is the operative word here, and the Mets knew that more than anyone.

The Mets stand to lose 3 of their 5 starters from 2022 (deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker), with 3 bullpen arms also still in question. The loss of a deGrom puts the pressure on NY to find themselves a legitimate #2 pitcher to complement Max Scherzer, with Carlos Rodon & Justin Verlander the early favorites in the clubhouse. The problem? NY currently projects to a $245M tax payroll - $12M over the 2023 threshold. It’s going to get expensive fast in Queens.

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The Rams' Future Guarantee Outlook

Michael GinnittiNovember 30, 2022

If the Rams were a one and done team, just how expensive are the next few years going to be?

QB | Matthew Stafford

Signed a 4 year, $160M extension this past March that included $63M guaranteed at signing, $61.5M of which has been paid out in 2022. His $1.5M salary for 2023 was also fully guaranteed at signing. If he’s on the roster March 19th, another $57M locks in.

The Out
If Stafford is healthy enough to pass a physical next March, the Rams could technically designate him a Post June 1st release before March 19th, taking on $49.5M of dead cap split into $13.5M next season, & $36M for 2024. While it’s an unlikely scenario, and a lot of cap to take on, the move would allow the Rams to avoid the full guarantee trigger, which would essentially mean $89M cash through 2025.

Practical Remaining: 3 years, $90.5M

WR | Cooper Kupp

Signed a 3 year, $80.1M extension this past June that included $35M guaranteed at signing, $30M of which was paid out in 2022. A $5M roster bonus due March 19th was also fully guaranteed at signing. If he’s on the roster March 19th, another $35M fully locks in, through the 2024 season.

The Out
With $5M cash guaranteed in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Rams considering any type of movement on their star WR’s deal. His $27.8M cap hit next season is begging for another restructure, which will all but guarantee that this contract stays intact through 2025, or 3 years, $60M.

Practical Remaining: 3 years, $60M

WR | Allen Robinson

Signed a 3 year, $46.5M free agent contract this past March, including $30.75M fully guaranteed through 2023.

The Out
With 2023 completely guaranteed at a $15.25M clip, Robinson isn’t going anywhere (barring a trade) until the 2024 offseason.

Practical Remaining: 1 year, $15.25M

LT | Joseph Noteboom

Signed a 3 year, $40M extension this past March, including $16.5M fully guaranteed at signing, $11.5M of which was paid out in 2022. A $5M roster bonus due March 19th is also fully guaranteed right now.

The Out
An achilles injury that will linger into the new league year + a $5M full guarantee for March all but secures Noteboom’s $13.5M next season. The Rams can walk away for just $6M dead cap after 2023.

Practical Remaining: 1 year $13.5M

RT | Rob Havenstein

Signed a 3 year, $34.5M extension this past September, including $19M fully guaranteed at signing, $7.6M of which has been paid out in 2022. His $1.5M base salary, $4M roster bonus, & a $6M option bonus for the 2023 season are all fully guaranteed right now.

The Out
With a $5M roster bonus for the 2024 season becoming fully guaranteed next March, it’s highly likely that the Rams stick out this contract through that 2024 campaign.

Practical Remaining: 2 years $23M

C | Brian Allen

Signed a 3 year, $18M contract extension this past March that included $6M fully guaranteed at signing, $5M of which hit the books in 2022. A $1M roster bonus for 2023 is also fully guaranteed.

The Out
If he’s on the roster March 19th, his $4M salary for 2023 becomes fully guaranteed. 2024 is a veritable option, but at just $7M cash, could also be a good value for LA if he’s healthy.

Practical Remaining: 1 year, $6M

DT | Aaron Donald

Signed a 3 year, $95M extension this past June that included $46.5M fully guaranteed at signing, $31.5M of which hit the books in 2022. A $15M roster bonus for 2023 was also fully guaranteed at signing, and was treated as a signing bonus for cap purposes.

The Out
Technically, Donald’s $13.5M salary for 2023 doesn’t fully guarantee until March 17th, but with $44M of dead cap already on the books, the Rams won’t consider any type of movement here. A $5M roster bonus for 2024 also locks in on March 17th, putting that $35M in total compensation on the likelier side as well.

Practical Remaining: 2 years, $63.5M

LB | Leonard Floyd

Signed a 4 year, $64M contract extension in March 2021 that included $32.5M fully guaranteed at signing, all through the 2022 season.

The Out
Floyd has a $2M roster bonus due March 19th, but the Rams can move on before that in favor of a $19M dead cap hit if they please. It seems likely the 30 year old gets one more year out of this deal (but a trade is very much within reach here).

Practical Remaining: 1 year, $15.5M

LB | Bobby Wagner

Signed a 5 year, $50M free agent contract this past March that included $10M fully guaranteed at signing, $6.5M of which hit in 2022. A $3.5M roster bonus due 2023 is also fully locked in right now.

The Out
He’s been fantastic, and deserving of every bit of the $11M salary he’ll see next season. If he’s on the roster March 19th, 2023, a $2.5M roster bonus for 2024 becomes fully guaranteed as well.

Practical Remaining: 2 years, $22M

CB | Jalen Ramsey

Signed a 5 year, $100M extension in September of 2021, including $43.7M fully guaranteed at signing. $12.5M of his 2023 salary became fully guaranteed last March.

The Out
Ramsey’s on pace to be as good this year as he was last year, so there’s really no reason to consider an out from a football standpoint. But if the Rams start looking to shed contracts, Ramsey’s 1 year, $12.5M guarantee makes this a very tradeable asset.

Practical Remaining: 1 year, $17M

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The Financial Futures of Rodgers & Love

Michael GinnittiNovember 28, 2022

The 4-8 Green Bay Packers are entering the phase of the season where it’s less about this year - and much more about the future. That may be the case even at the quarterback position as a rib injury (packaged with a previous thumb ailment) could force Aaron Rodgers to the bench, and Jordan Love into full-time action: and this actually might be a blessing in disguise for the franchise.

We’ll dive into the financial futures of the Green Bay quarterbacks, starting with Jordan Love’s remaining contract, and 4 options for Aaron Rodgers in 2023 & beyond.

Jordan Love’s Contract

Jordan Love’s rookie contract contains a fully guaranteed $2.3M in 2023, then a projected $22M 5th-year option for the 2024 season. The Packers will need to decide on that option this coming May. If it’s exercised, it immediately becomes fully guaranteed. If it’s declined, Love will be eligible for unrestricted free agency after the 2023 season.

As we move along in this exercise, it’s important to note that if trading Love is the plan, that move will likely need to be completed before the May option deadline passes, affording the new team the opportunity to decide on that for themselves (re: Darnold & the Panthers).

A trade next March means $1.6M of dead cap for the Packers, freeing up $2.3M of cap space for 2023. A release (unlikely) means $3.94M of dead cap, $0 saved.

With the Packers now out of playoff contention, giving Love the keys to this team for 6 weeks seems the right organizational move. Understanding the next piece to Jordan Love’s puzzle seems the most important factor to the remainder of 2022. Is he a viable option to become Green Bay’s next QB1? Does he possess enough to captivate at least one team via trade? Or is he a highly drafted backup NFL QB, and nothing more?

Aaron Rodgers Option #4: Release

By far the least likely outcome next offseason, despite a clear and obvious decline in play (mostly stemming from a broken thumb, but at least a portion belonging to Father Time).

$99.7M of dead cap. That’s the only reason we need to provide you with here. Even if he’s designated a Post June 1st release, the Packers take on dead hits of $75.3M in 2023, and $24.4M in 2024. And oh by the way, they’d still be paying him the $59.5M cash on the way out the door.

Aaron Rodgers Option #3: Retirement

Despite a few injuries, and a miserable record, this still seems the 2nd least likely option for Rodgers in 2023. Though none of us should attempt to predict an Aaron Rodgers next move, as he’s shown us numerous times.

Reason #1-#479 why he likely won’t retire? There’s $59.5M waiting for him in 2023.

If it were to happen though, the Packers would be staring down a $40.3M total dead cap hit, stemming from signing bonus proration. Rodgers would forfeit the guaranteed $1.165M base salary & $58.3M option bonus due to him next season, as well as the $49.3M available in 2024.

The Packers would likely wait to process any retirement papers until after June 2nd, keeping his full $31.6M cap hit on the books until then (but not exercising the 2023 option bonus). On June 2nd, Green Bay can split that $40.3M dead cap hit into $15.8M for 2023, & $24.4M for 2024.

Aaron Rodgers Option #2: Sticking Around

If it ends up being same as it ever was in Green Bay, lots of numbers need to get involved. Financially speaking, this is a tale of two stories: 2023 & 2024

2023
In 2023, the first decision comes with the fully guaranteed $58.3M option bonus. The Packers have between March 17th and the start of the 2023 regular season to decide on that bonus. It’s not a decision of if he’ll earn it - rather how he’ll earn it. If the Packers exercise the option bonus, it will allow the $58.3M to spread out over the remaining 4 years on the contract for salary cap purposes (or $14.575M per season). If they decline the option bonus, it immediately converts to fully guaranteed base salary, meaning Rodgers would now possess a $59.465M base salary, and a $72.4M cap hit for 2023. Guess which path they’re going to take?

Rodgers currently counts $31.6M against the Packers’ 2023 cap, a very tenable number in the grand scheme of things. If the league cap rises to $220M next season, this number represents a workable 14.3% of it. Any type of restructure to this figure makes the 2024 scenario a little uglier.

2024
In 2024, all of the decisions have to happen immediately, as his $2.25M base salary & a $47M option bonus become fully guaranteed 5 days after the 2023 season’s Super Bowl (February 16, 2024). Rodgers would still be tradeable into the league year (as long as the option bonus isn’t yet exercised), but he would no longer be “reasonably releasable”. Before that February 16th date hits, the contract carries $24.48M of dead cap in 2024, representing $16.2M of cap savings.

Long story short, if Rodgers decides to return in 2023, and the Packers want to keep him in the fold as well, this contract becomes a 1 year, $59.5M deal, with an opportunity to bail out completely in February 2024, as shown below.

Aaron Rodgers Option #1: Trade

First of all it needs to be noted: Aaron Rodgers' contract does not contain a no trade clause. So this is very much the Green Bay Packers' decision to be made. With that said, there’s going to be plenty of speculation with this again (ourselves included), despite the large contract attached to him this time around. It’ll get louder if Jordan Love is given an opportunity to finish out the 2022 season, and does so with any type of success.

Financially speaking this is a tale of two discussion points: The Option Bonus, & Timing

OPTION BONUS
As mentioned above, the Packers have between March 17th & the start of the 2023 regular season to exercise that $58.3M option bonus. Trading him before that happens is an obvious necessity.

The receiving team would pick up the following contract, including cap hits of $15.79M, $32.5M, $51.1M, & $45.3M respectively:



The dead cap represented in this traded contract includes just the guarantee for the 2023 base salary & the 2023 option bonus. Additional dead cap would incur once the 2024 salary & option bonus guarantee in February 2024 (see Option #2 for full details).

However, any team bringing on Rodgers next offseason would likely be doing so on a 2 year basis based on the initial $43.725M dead cap number in 2024.

TIMING & DEAD CAP
When would this trade happen? This is where things get interesting. The logical initial response to this answer would be Post June 1st, 2023 - allowing the $40.3M of dead cap for the Packers to split up into $15.8M for 2023, & $24.4M for 2024. But waiting until June to process this trade means 2023 draft picks can’t be included in the move. Should a team like the Raiders be interested in acquiring Rodgers, their likely Top 10 1st round pick in 2023 would be of high interest to the Packers.

As long as the trade compensation is worth it, Green Bay likely takes on the full $40.3M dead cap hit for 2023 in order to move him prior to next year’s draft. It would be the second highest single season dead cap hit in NFL history, just below Matt Ryan's current $40.5M hit with the Falcons this season.

Final Thoughts

Clearly we’re speculating here, but the NFL has seen a major QB move in each of the last 3 offseasons, so as a spoiled member of the hot stove world, it’s fun to think another one is forthcoming.

Will Russell Wilson’s disaster of a season place caution on a bigtime Rodgers acquisition? Yes and No. Yes because it’s human nature to connect the two situations. No because Russell Wilson’s game wasn’t successful leading up to the trade - despite (ironically) reports that a thumb injury had been hampering his ability to produce.

Rodgers has shown more than a few flashes of his greatness in 2022, and it’s fair to assume that should he be able to stay healthy - more of those will continue in the next year or two.

Potential Destinations? The Raiders’ brutal season has them as immediate front-runners. Tom Brady’s future in Tampa Bay could make the Bucs a contender for Rodgers. The Steelers were interested a year ago, and could include Kenny Pickett in a deal to Green Bay this time around. And the Saints, who don’t possess a 2023 1st round pick, should very much be in the mix for Rodgers’ services. And finally, both New York teams (Giants/Jets) have improved rosters that could be an above average QB away from taking that next step.

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Angels Acquire OF Hunter Renfroe

Michael GinnittiNovember 23, 2022

The Los Angeles Angels continued their slow rebuild by acquiring OF Hunter Renfroe from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for young pitchers Janson Junk (RHP), Elvis Peguero (RHP), Adam Seminaris (LHP).

It’s the third notable move this offseason, following the acquisition of SS Giovanny Urshela from the Minnesota Twins, and the free agent signing of SP Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M) away from the Dodgers.

Renfroe is headed for a 4th and final trip through arbitration this winter, projected to earn around $12M for the upcoming season. He posted 23 doubles, 29 homers, 72 RBIs & a 2.77 WAR last season for the Brewers, fairly consistent with his annual output over the past 6 years. He slots in immediately as the starting right fielder for LAA, alongside Mike Trout in CF, and Taylor Ward in LF.

Giovanny Urshela figures to be the day 1 starting shortstop for the Angels, projected to earn around $9.25M in his final arbitration season. The 31-year-old posted 27 doubles, 13 homers, 64 RBIs, and a 2.92 WAR last season in Minnesota.

Tyler Anderson had a career year on the mound for the Dodgers last season, cutting his ERA down to 2.57, the WHIP down to 1.00, while accumulating a 4.26 WAR across 178 innings. He currently projects as the #2 arm in the rotation behind Shohei Ohtani - barring another (likely) acquisition this winter. His 3 year deal comes with a flat $13M per season, which ranks 28th among starting pitcher pay right now.

The Angels now project toward a $206M tax payroll when including estimated arbitration & pre-arbitration salaries against their 40-man roster. With a threshold of $233M this season, this means around $26M of space to work with.

hunter renfroe

Next Contract Series: Justin Verlander

Michael GinnittiNovember 23, 2022

Justin Verlander can walk backwards into the Baseball Hall of Fame tomorrow if he’d like, but it appears the almost 40-year-old will continue his career, on the heels of his 3rd Cy Young wth the Astros in 2022.

Verlander joined the Astros at the 2017 waiver period deadline, finished out his contract in 2018, signed a 2 year, $66M extension thereafter, then followed that up with his most recent 2 year, $50M deal - that was cut in half when he opted out a few weeks ago.

In total, the former #2 overall draft pick by the Tigers has secured just under $300M across 18 seasons - and he’s not done yet.

The Next Contract

Let’s start with what the numbers say exclusively. By tossing Justin Verlander’s last three seasons (with 2021 a wash) statistically speaking into our algorithm, the number that spits back out is an historic $45.3M - exactly $2M more than the current MLB high $43.3M (Max Scherzer).

If we bring age into the conversation (and it seems impossible not to, despite the 2022 production), the only real precedent we have to bounce off of is Adam Wainwright, who has now signed back to back 1 year, $17.5M contracts for his age 40 & 41 seasons. But Adam Wainwright - despite excellent seasons in both 2021 & 2022 - isn’t Justin Verlander. If we just engage WAR alone, Wainwright’s last two years combine for 5.39, an excellent output. Verlander’s 2020 & 2022 combined? 12.88

If we just take the percent change on this WAR breakdown alone, Verlander should be making 60% more than Wainwright - or $30M flat. It’s probably a pretty fair number when taking all things into consideration (earned $33M 3 years ago, dropped to $25M due to the injury, split the difference for age 40).

But early reports from Verlander’s camp don’t appear to be “compromising”. In fact, the teams involved (Mets, Dodgers, Astros, etc…) are leading most to believe that an inflation adjusted version of Max Scherzer’s contract is much more likely than an inflation adjusted version of his own recent financials.

We’ll play along with the former storyline, as our math qualifies it. Verlander signs a 2 year, $90M contract with the Mets, including a $25M club option for 2025. 

The Ramifications

Jacob deGrom seems the player most likely to benefit from a top of the market Verlander contract as he seeks his own this winter. deGrom’s injury history is a major red flag right now, but it’s not stopping the Yankees, Braves and of course the Mets (to name a few), from doing their due diligence.

A Verlander deal in Queens almost certainly means deGrom’s tenure there is finished, but it also re-raises the stakes for his next destination. At $45.1M, the 34-year-old carries a market valuation just under that of Verlander’s, so a contract from one should directly lead to a higher contract for the other - despite the 6 year age difference.

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Next Contract Series: Jimmy Garoppolo

Michael GinnittiNovember 22, 2022

Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to San Francisco was questioned by many as just another misstep in the 49ers path to improving their QB1 position. But 11 weeks into the 2022 season (10 under Garoppolo’s reins) it’s hard not to readdress the elephant in the room.

At some point, the Niners will need to take this relationship for what it is - a match. Kyle Shanahan may want a more skilled player to run his offense, and every new draft class will offer up athletes that possess just that. But experience kills in American sports, and there’s no denying that Garoppolo’s understanding and comfort in this system is now unrivaled.

Furthermore, the addition of Christian McCaffrey makes a Jimmy Garoppolo-run offense even more potent, as it amplifies the short, quick passing attack that the 31 year old quarterback is most comfortable in.

The 2023 Outlook

With an expiring (yet growing) contract, and Trey Lance still seemingly the future of this roster, Garoppolo’s 2023 outlook is a complete unknown.

Trey Lance’s ankle injury (and subsequent surgery) will keep him out until the 2023 league year, but a full return is expected. Contractually, Lance holds a fully guaranteed 2 years, $6M plus a 5th year option for the 2025 season. The Niners have already paid him $25M.

Which teams might be interested? More than a few. Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, New England, New Orleans, both New Yorks, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, & Washington all have at least some need for a new QB1 over the next season or two. With 3 QBs projected into the first round this coming draft, and two more on the fringe, some of these teams will address their need via the traditional route. But a few here seem more inclined to drop in a veteran option: notably, the Jets, Commanders, & Buccaneers.

Should the 49ers consider keeping him? Common sense says the answer should be yes, but it still strongly feels like their internal answer is no. A healthy Trey Lance still (seemingly) provides this roster an ability to jump up another rung or two on the offensive ladder, and as a cost-controlled option, gives San Francisco flexibility to continue to add/retain pieces as needed. With that said - how many franchises would opt to let Garoppolo walk next March?

The Next Contract

Garoppolo’s numbers are never going to pop off the page - he’s just not built for that type of production, nor is the current offense he’s being asked to run. So mathematically speaking, Jimmy G won’t project to a top of the market contract, even though the Niners paid him as such back in 2018 on an annual average basis.

Our current predictive market value for Jimmy Garoppolo calculates to $28.1M, almost precisely where his last multi-year contract ($27.5M) came in. With a league salary cap expected to approach or exceed $220M next March, a simple cap adjusted version of his last contract average brings his number up to $34M, or a projected 4 years, $135M.

Should multiple teams be involved, Derek Carr's $40.5M annual average could easily be in play here, as is his 53% of total value practically guaranteed. All things considered, our logical prediction for Jimmy Garoppolo's next deal rings it at 4 years, $150M, $75M practically guaranteed, $45M guaranteed at signing.

The QB Market

Often, free agent contracts are only as big as the supply/demand curve allows for within a position - even quarterback. So who else might be drawing big dollars on the open market next March?

Geno Smith (SEA, 32)
The comeback story of the year will result in a hell of a pay raise for the former #39 overall selection back in 2013. It seems unlikely that the Seahawks will let Smith walk, but at least a few of the teams listed above should have interest, potentially even more so than Garoppolo. Smith projects almost identically to Garoppolo right now in our system, though teams may be less inclined to go more than a few years with the smaller sample size.

Tom Brady (TB, 45)
Remember him? The #11 rated QB according to PFF is in 1st place in the NFC South right now, and hasn’t said one way or another about his 2023 playing status. We’ll assume he continues, which puts him into the open market (his contract contains a no tag clause). Brady projects to a 2 year, $82M contract in our system, though the $30M paycheck he earned in 2022 is probably suffice for his next stop. Will the Buccaneers try to keep this thing together, despite obvious setbacks across the roster? Does Brady have interest in joining a third franchise? The Raiders owe Derek Carr $75M over the next two seasons, but can get out of that with a February release. Is this a logical next spot (and price) for Brady?

Taylor Heinicke (WSH, 29)
Heinicke may be doing exactly what he’s supposed to be doing - filling in admirably as needed. It’s hard to imagine an organization - even Washington- compensating him as a true QB1, though crazier things have happened. If he’s signed in this capacity, Heinicke projects to a near $20M per year contract.

Daniel Jones (NYG, 25)
Jones might be the next iteration of Jimmy Garoppolo, despite a #6 overall draft slot. It doesn’t appear as though the Giants are poised to retain him in any capacity - even the franchise tag (projected $32M). He’ll likely be searching for a “compete” scenario next March, with Jameis Winston’s 2 year, $14M deal in New Orleans a likely target.

Lamar Jackson (BAL, 25)
This is a non-conversation until it isn’t. All expectations are that the Ravens will slap an expensive exclusive franchise tag on Jackson this February, despite the obvious cap restrictions it comes with. The bigger conversation might be if Jackson will accept/play on the tag - or if a holdout/trade demand is forthcoming. If the latter is the case, he becomes the most coveted option not named CJ Stroud/Bryce Young for 2023.

Also Potentially
Derek Carr (LV, 31)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN, 34)
Jared Goff (DET, 28)
Carson Wentz (WSH, 29)
Baker Mayfield (CAR, 27)
Mitchell Trubisky (PIT, 28)
Jacoby Brissett (CLE, 29)
Sam Darnold (CAR, 25)
Zach Wilson (NYJ, 23)
Marcus Mariota (ATL, 29)
Andy Dalton (NO, 35)

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Recapping 2022 MLB Qualifying Offers

Michael GinnittiNovember 16, 2022

14 players were handed a Qualifying Offer for the 2023 season: 2 were accepted, 12 were declined. Our thoughts on the financial futures for each player as we head toward the winter months.

Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS, 28)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Swanson will hit the open market with plenty of offers as he figures to be the lower costing elite shortstop available this winter. He popped 52 homers across the past two seasons, and projects to a 6 year, $150M contract in our system.

Willson Contreras (CHC, C, 30)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Contreras hits the market as the top available catcher, and all of the big boy contenders are in. He mashed 43 homers across the past two seasons, and projects to a 4 year, $65M deal in our system.

Tyler Anderson (LAD, SP, 32)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Not only did Anderson reject the Dodgers’ offer - he turned around and signed a 3 year, $39M contract across town with the Angels a minute later. LAA is hoping 2022 wasn’t just an anomaly (2.57 ERA, 1 WHIP, 4.26 WAR), as they need quality pitching about as much as any team in the game.

Trea Turner (LAD, SS, 29)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Maybe the most complete player on the open market this winter, Turner has been linked to a dozen teams already - including the Yankees and Mets. The 5 tool stud projects to a 6 year, $200M contract in our system, but there’s no reason he doesn’t demand $300M if he wants to go longer.

Joc Pederson (SF, OF, 31)

Qualifying Offer: Accepted

This seemed a no-brainer from the get-go, as Pederson played out a 1 year, $6M deal for the Giants in 2022 - and posted one of his best statistical seasons to date. There’s a clear fit between the two sides, and if a bat like Aaron Judge as added as lineup protection, Pederson’s 2023 free agency (without a QO attached) could be very rewarding.

Carlos Rodon (SF, SP, 29)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Rodon opted out of a $22.5M salary for 2022, so there’s clearly multi-year guarantee in mind here. He won’t be disappointed as every contender from St. Louis to the Dodgers to both New York franchises will have a significant stake in his future. He’s a 6 year, $195M player in our system.

Chris Bassitt (NYM, SP, 33)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Bassitt had an excellent season in Queens and rightfully rejected a $19M option for the upcoming campaign. He’ll find at least this much on an average annual basis over a multi-year contract, with 3 years, $61M being our projected baseline.

Jacob deGrom (NYM, SP, 34)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

It’s tough to tell if deGrom is simply ready to test (and accept) his place on the open market, or if the Mets simply aren’t willing to offer the financial figures it’s going to take to keep their ace based on his previous injury history. Will Steve Cohen cave and hand out the 3 year, $135M contract we peg him to? If he doesn’t - someone will.

Brandon Nimmo (NYM, OF, 29)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Nimmo isn’t a household name, but he’ll be one of the most coveted position players on the open market this year (despite a down year across the board in 2022). The speedy, top of the lineup, high-energy, strong defensive center fielder is likely to bag around $22M per year this winter.

Martin Perez (TEX, SP, 32)

Qualifying Offer: Accepted

A little bit of a surprise, as many thought Perez’ shocker 2022 production would have turned into a multi-year guarantee. Clearly the early offers weren’t jumping off the page, so a near $20M salary to stick with a situation that worked well, and a chance to hit the market again next winter, is a perfectly plausible decision.

Xander Bogaerts (BOS, SS, 30)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Bogaerts left 3 years, $60M on the table when he opted out of a mess of a Boston situation. He’ll be seeking a deal around $30M per year, and the Cardinals, Cubs, and Phillies appear ready to strike.

Nathan Eovaldi (BOS, SP, 32)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

If the Red Sox were in better shape, this is probably an offer that gets accepted. Boston is still trying to lock down Eovaldi to a multi-year deal, but other suitors are certainly getting involved now as well. He’ll likely see less than $19.6M per year on his next contract, but 2 years, $33M in a better situation is likely more attractive across the board.

Aaron Judge (NYY, OF, 30)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

12 teams are likely offering him $300M right now. Brian Cashman probably processed the qualifying offer and rejection papers simultaneously. Judge is an 8 year, $303M player in our system, but a bidding war gets this thing into the middle 300s pretty easily.

Anthony Rizzo (NYY, 1B, 33)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Rizzo had offers from good teams (San Diego, Houston), but smartly chose to stay in the Bronx on a 2 year, $40M guarantee (3rd year club option that can raise the deal to $51M). He’s not the player he once was, so finding a fit at age 33 seems like a situation you want to remain in.

The Stability of the 2023 Raiders

Michael GinnittiNovember 14, 2022

The Raiders locked in 5 players to contract extensions this offseason, to the tune of $439M in total value. Of that, $227M is considered to be practically guaranteed, with $108M fully guaranteed at signing. If we dive even deeper, we learn that the 2023 season isn't 100% guaranteed for any of these new contracts.

With Las Vegas' season floundering, the hot stove will soon be full of future predictions for the state of this roster going forward. How safe are these 5 contracts heading toward 2023?

Derek Carr

3 years, $121,500,000

Carr’s latest extension carries $65.2M of potential guarantees - but only $25M at signing (his 2022 compensation).

This is a contract to watch in the coming months, as it truly can be a 1 year, $25M deal in its simplest form. If he’s healthy, the Raiders can release Carr before February 15th, owing him no additional salary, while taking on a measly $5.6M dead cap hit ($29.2M saved). After this date, his $33M salary for 2023, + $7.5M of 2024 compensation become fully guaranteed. All $40M of this is currently guaranteed for injury right now.

Davante Adams

5 years, $140,000,000

The Raiders gave up a 1st and 2nd round pick to bring on Adams, both from the 2022 draft. They turned around and handed him a 5 year, $140M contract that included over $65M guaranteed - but only $22.75M guaranteed at signing.

Like Carr’s contract, there’s an out after 2022, but the dead cap that remains ($31.4M) with Las Vegas to trade Adams next March seems too rich to take on - even if the draft pick haul would be enticing. Even if the Raiders start over at the QB position, having a player of Adams’ ability makes sense - at least for a minute.

Maxx Crosby

4 years, $94,000,000

$26.5M of the $53M practically guaranteed on this contract is fully locked in at signing, including a $10.05M roster bonus for 2023. When March 17th rolls around, another $26.5M fully guaranteed (2023 salary + 2024 salary).

Crosby’s a centerpiece to build around regardless of who’s coaching or playing quarterback, and this deal isn’t too much for any franchise to tolerate. 

Darren Waller

3 years, $51,000,000

Las Vegas’ good-faith extension for Waller appears to be a disastrous decision as they reportedly tried to shop the 30 year old at the trade deadline, then placed him on the IR a few weeks later. $8.25M of his 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed, with another $2.75M set to lock on March 17th. Will they look to find a suitor for a 1 year, $11M guarantee? If so, the Raiders will take on just a $660,000 dead cap hit for 2023  - nearly $12M of savings.

Hunter Renfrow

2 years, $32,000,000

Renfrow’s 3 year contract comes with $14.5M guaranteed at signing, including a $4.32M roster bonus in 2023. His $6.5M salary for next season fully locks in on March 17th. Like Adams, it’s likely Renfrow sticks through 2023. The deal contains no guarantee for the 2024 season.

derek carr davante adams darren waller maxx crosby hunter renfrow

Breaking Down Edwin Diaz's $102M Contract

Michael GinnittiNovember 13, 2022

The Mets struck early this offseason, locking in Edwin Diaz to a 5 year, $102M contract during the exclusive negotiations portion of free agency. With full details of that contract now available, we’ll dive deep into the facts and figures here.

The Total Value

With a base value of $102M, Diaz’s new contract is the highest total value deal in relief pitcher history - by a bunch.

1. Edwin Diaz, $102M
2. Aroldis Chapman, $86M
3. Kenley Jansen, $80M
4. Mark Melancon, $62M
5. Raisel Iglesias, $58M

When factoring in the 6th year club option, and annual award bonuses, there’s a world where this contract can approach $120M in full.

The Average Salary vs. the Tax Salary

On its face, the $20.4M per year average annual salary blows the reliever market out of the water, as Liam Hendriks ($18M), Aroldis Chapman ($16M), & Kenley Jansen ($16M) currently held the top spots.

If we take position out of the equation, Diaz becomes the 41st highest average paid player in baseball at the time of his signing, 3rd-highest for the Mets (Scherzer, Lindor).

Things change quite a bit from a luxury tax perspective though. $26.5M of the base contract is deferred compensation, which drops the tax salary (CBT) to around $18.6M. With the Mets projected to soar past the $233M tax threshold this season, every little bit of savings helps.

The Cash Breakdown

Enter at your own risk here.

2023
Diaz will cash a $12M signing bonus right now plus $11.75M of his $17.25M base salary this season. The remaining $5.5M is deferred to 2033-2035.

2024
$11.75M in-season, $5.5M more 2035-2037.

2025
$12M in-season, $5.5M more 2037-2039

2026
$13.5M in-season, $5M more 2039-2041

2027
$14.5M in-season, $5M more 2041-2042

2028
$17.25M club option, or a $1M buyout

The Bells & Whistles

Player Opt-Out
Diaz will have the ability to opt-out of this contract after the 2025 season, or 3 years, $64M. He’ll be approaching 32 years old at this time, with a minimum 2 years, $38M remaining on the contract (plus a possible $17.25M club option). An awful lot has to go very well for an opt-out to be considered a likely path.

Trade Clause
Diaz gains a full no trade clause now through the 2025 league year. On November 1st, 2025, that converts to a 10-team no trade clause through the remainder of the contract.

Award Bonuses
Diaz can earn an additional $100,000 each time he’s tagged World Series MVP or Reliever of the Year. Another $50,000 for each All-Star, Gold Glove or LCS MVP selection. And $50,000 for a Cy Young award ($25,000 for 2nd, $10,000 for 3rd).

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