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Tyler Herro Extension Options

Keith SmithMarch 18, 2022

Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat is probably going to win Sixth Man of the Year. Actually, remove the probably. Herro will win Sixth Man of the Year. Herro has been dominant off the bench for Miami this season. He’s averaged 21 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game for the Heat in his third season. In a somewhat odd twist, Herro has been far more effective as a reserve than as a starter. His efficiency drops considerably as a starter, which leads to fall-off in overall production. That begs the question: How much do you pay a sixth man?

That’s what the Heat have to answer this summer, as Herro becomes extension eligible. Reports are already out there that Herro is seeking a max extension. Can you max out a player who has started in just 33 of 166 games? As a reminder: Herro is under contract for 2022-23 at $5.7 million. If he signs an extension this summer, it would start with the 2023-24 season. We’re using a conservative salary cap projection of $127 million to build our estimates off of.

The Full Max Extension

Let’s cover this first, because it’s what Herro is going to ask for. For a guy who is a proven scorer, good shooter and developing playmaker, it’s fair to start here.

Here’s what the full max extension would look like for Herro:

2023-24: $31,750,000
2024-25: $34,290,000
2025-26: $36,830,000
2026-27: $39,370,000
2027-28: $41,910,000
Total: Five years, $184,150,000

This is a five-year extension with 8% raises. It starts at the full projected max of $31,750,000. Player options on the final season have become somewhat common again, after disappearing for years. But they are generally reserved for players who have All-Star or All-NBA selections on their resume. Herro probably isn’t in a spot to command a player option yet.

One other option that’s worth considering, but hard to put figures to, is the idea of a below max extension, but with bonuses that could bring it to a max. This is essentially what the Boston Celtics did in Jaylen Brown’s extension. Brown’s guaranteed money is below the max, but he has performance and team success language that can push his salary up close to max money. That could be a way for Miami and Herro to split the difference, if the Heat aren’t comfortable with a guaranteed max.

Playing Things Out to Restricted Free Agency

Let’s say Miami doesn’t want to go to the full max and Herro won’t budge off that ask. They could play things out during the 2022-23 season. In that case, Herro would be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2023.

Nothing would change as far as the deal Miami could offer Herro, as far as the max goes. That number remains the same. What could happen is a down season could knock Herro’s price tag down some. Conversely, if Herro continues to play as he has this season, he’ll be in an even stronger position to demand a max deal.

We’re going to cover this here, because it’s as good a place as any: Herro isn’t a candidate to sign the Qualifying Offer and hit unrestricted free agency in 2024. Herro will likely meet Starter Criteria (via the 2,000 minutes played criterion vs the 41 games started criterion), which will bump his QO just slightly. Instead of $7.9 million, Herro could sign the QO for $8.5 million.

Simply put: Herro is too good to sign for so little. In addition, there are no signs Herro has any sort of adverse relationship with Miami that would cause him to want to leave town so badly that he’d sign the QO.

Leaving For Another Team

Let’s say things do go sideways for some reason between Herro and the Heat. He could sign with another team as a restricted free agent. That offer sheet would look like this:

2023-24: $31,750,000
2024-25: $33,337,500
2025-26: $34,925,000
2026-27: $36,512,500
Total: Four years, $136,525,000

This is a four-year max deal with 5% raises. Generally, an offer sheet includes all the bells and whistles to entice the incumbent to let the player walk. This deal would likely include a 15% trade bonus, a player option on the fourth season and probably some up front actual payments. The idea is to make it so that it’s as uncomfortable as possible for the incumbent team to match.

Given that Miami’s front office is one of the smarter and more creative in the league, it’s unlikely things would get to this point. If Herro was set on leaving South Beach, the Heat would look to work a sign-and-trade. In that case, the contract for Herro would look exactly the same as above, as players can’t get more via sign-and-trade that via signing outright with a new team.

The Extension After a Trade

We’ll cover this one pretty quickly, as it would look exactly like the max extension with Miami would. Trading Herro this offseason seems unlikely, but there is a precedent to look at.

In 2012, after three outstanding seasons off the bench, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded James Harden to the Houston Rockets.

No, we’re not saying Tyler Herro is going to become James Harden. But…we’re not exactly not saying it either. Go compare their first three seasons. We’ll wait… Kind of similar, right?

At any rate, if Miami wanted to cash in, rebuild their young talent and draft pick pipeline, they could look to deal Herro to a team that sees him as their Harden. In that case for Herro, the extension options would look the same as they would with the Heat. And if a team gave up a big package to get Herro, they’d be giving him a max deal.

Summary

It’s unlikely Tyler Herro is going anywhere. He’s simply too important to what Miami has built, and just as key, to what the Heat are building moving forward.

Expect Herro and Miami to come to an agreement on a max deal. Whether that’s four or five years, or five years with a player option on the final season, is up in the air. Or it could be a slightly below max, with bonus language to the max.

Given his status as the top sixth man in the league, age, continued improvement and importance to the Heat, Herro will probably get maxed out.

And that’s when things get really interesting for Miami.

If Herro gets a max that starts with the 2023-24 season, the Heat will have the following players under contract for that season:

Bam Adebayo – $32.6 million
Jimmy Butler – $44.5 million (estimated first year of extension)
Tyler Herro - $31.7 million (estimated first year of extension)
Kyle Lowry - $29.7 million
Duncan Robinson - $18.2 million

That’s $156.6 million against a projected luxury tax line of $154.4 million for five players. $2.2 million over the tax for five players.

For five players! That’s a minimum of nine roster spots to fill. Re-sign a couple of their own free agents and the Heat start pushing into Nets, Warriors, Clippers and Lakers levels of tax bills.

At the trade deadline, Miami not-so-subtly shopped Duncan Robinson. Part of that is Robinson is in the midst of a third straight season of declining production. And that’s attached to $74.4 million owed to the sharpshooter through 2025-26.

But a just-as-big a part of shopping Robinson is related to future roster planning. You can’t be over the tax line for just five players. Especially when two of the five players will be 34 years old (Butler) and 36 years old (Lowry), with lengthy injury histories. Look at this season’s Lakers for how precarious building that top-heavy of a roster becomes.

Miami is smart. They also know they have a full season and two offseasons to figure things out. They’ll likely lock Herro up to an extension, and probably one that approaches the max. But the Heat will make roster tweaks before Herro’s extension kicks in. It’ll probably cost them Robinson, but that’s the price of doing business when you’ve nailed your draft picks and end-of-roster signings like Miami has.

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Options for Zach LaVine’s Next Contract

Keith SmithMarch 14, 2022

UPDATED 4/29 PER A PROJECTED $122M 2022-23 LEAGUE CAP

In the summer of 2018, Zach LaVine signed a four-year, $78 million offer sheet with the Sacramento Kings. The offer sheet was structured with no options and was worth a flat $19.5 million per season. It seems silly now, but there was real debate at the time as to whether the Chicago Bulls should match. Chicago did match. And they made the right decision as LaVine’s career has taken off since then. Why then were there questions about if Chicago could match? LaVine had played for only poor teams in his career, having spent the first three seasons of his career with the Minnesota Timberwolves and the fourth year with the Bulls. In addition, LaVine had some injuries issues in his third and fourth seasons.

Still, he was seen as a talented player. One who could both handle the ball as a playmaker, but also function as a primary scorer, even if that was still somewhat theoretical at the time. In the first four years of his career, LaVine averaged 14 points, three rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. His first year in Chicago, after being acquired in the trade that sent Jimmy Butler to the Wolves, featured just 24 games. LaVine debuted in mid-January after tearing his ACL in his last with year the Wolves. He was up-and-down until he was shut down for the year in mid-March. In the four years since the Bulls matched the offer sheet from the Kings, LaVine’s career went to the next level. He’s averaged 25.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. In addition, LaVine has had 48/39/83 shooting splits during that period.

Just as importantly, LaVine has stayed mostly healthy during this run. That has helped him garner back-to-back All-Star nods. In addition, LaVine has shown he’s not just a “good stats, bad team” guy, as he’s been a big part of Chicago’s turnaround. This summer, LaVine will again hit free agency. The difference is this time he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. And the Bulls won’t get him on any sort of under-market, team-friendly deal. LaVine is likely to get paid.

Here are the options for Zach LaVine’s next contract.

The Veteran Extension

We can rule this one out, but for the sake of completionism, we’re going to cover it.

LaVine and Chicago could ink a veteran extension right now. The challenge is that it won’t pay LaVine nearly enough. He’d be limited to 120% of his current salary in the first year of an extension that would start in 2022-23. LaVine could then get 8% raises on the three subsequent seasons. That deal would look like this:

2022-23: $23,400,000
2023-24: $25,272,000
2024-25: $27,144,000
2025-26: $29,016,000
Total: Four years, $104,832,000

It should be pretty easy to see why this one isn’t happening. That’s not even the maximum a player can get coming off a Rookie Scale contract. More simply put: players hitting free agency after an All-Star season command far more than an average of $26 million per season.

The Standard Max with the Bulls

Now, we’re talking! This is probably where the conversation starts for LaVine and Chicago. He just recently turned 27 years old, so LaVine should maintain his value throughout the life of this deal. Here’s what the full max would look like:

2022-23: $36,600,000
2023-24: $39,528,000
2024-25: $42,456,000
2025-26: $45,384,000
2026-27: $48,312,000
Total: Five years, $212,280,000

That’s the full five-year max, with 8% raises. It starts at the 30% of the salary cap max, based on the most recent projection of a $122 million salary cap for 2022-23.

It’s likely this deal would include a player option for LaVine on the final season. Most players of his caliber have been able to get a player option on a max deal. That would allow LaVine to get back on the free agent market for one more big contract when he’s 31 years old.

The Full Max with Another Team

Let’s say the Bulls playoff run doesn’t go as hoped for and Chicago is bounced in the first round. Maybe LaVine doesn’t mesh with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic on the biggest stage. Maybe he wants a bigger role on his own team elsewhere.

Even if the Bulls falter earlier than some might expect in the postseason, LaVine will have been a huge part of that turnaround. He’s probably not leaving Chicago in that case. But, just in case, here’s what a max deal with another team would look like:

2022-23: $36,600,000
2023-24: $38,430,000
2024-25: $40,260,000
2025-26: $42,090,000
Total: Four years, $157,380,000

That’s the full four-year max LaVine could sign for with another team. It starts at the same 30% of the salary cap max that he can get from the Bulls, but it includes just 5% raises.

In total, that’s about a $6.6 million difference in salary over four years. It’s a $54.5 million difference in total salary. But, given LaVine’s relatively young age, the four-year difference is the one to focus on.

Again, given LaVine’s stature as a two-time All-Star, it’s likely he could demand a player option on the fourth season. That would put him back on the market as a 30-year-old.

One last note on this one: This is the same deal LaVine could get via a sign-and-trade this summer.

The Designated Veteran Max with the Bulls

This deal is unlikely to be available to LaVine, but isn’t completely out of the running. LaVine won’t win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year to qualify for a Designated Veteran contract. But he could still make a late push to make an All-NBA team. If that happened, LaVine would qualify to jump from the 30% of the cap max tier to the 35% of the cap max tier, despite having only eight years of service.

A couple of things to note: LaVine is only eligible for this deal this offseason. And he’s only eligible to get it from the Bulls because Chicago acquired him while he was still on his Rookie Scale deal.

Here’s what this contract would look like:

2022-23: $42,700,000
2023-24: $46,116,000
2024-25: $49,532,000
2025-26: $52,948,000
2026-27: $56,364,000
Total: Five years, $247,660,000

That’s the full Designated Veteran max starting at 35% of the cap, with 8% raises. As with the other options presented here, LaVine would likely demand a player option on that final season. And he would be in an even better spot to demand one coming off an All-NBA nod.

Summary

It seems unlikely that Zach LaVine will make an All-NBA team this season. He’s had a good year, but the Bulls slide in the standings, combined with LaVine missing 13 games as of this writing, probably takes that off the table.

It’s also fair to eliminated the standard veteran extension. He’s not taking that small of a contract.

That leaves the five-year max with Chicago, the four-year max with another team, or something in between.

The guess here is that LaVine take the full five-year max with the Bulls. There are a few reasons for this line of thinking.

First, LaVine has had some health issues, including a reoccurrence of knee pain this season. Most players in that situation want to lock up as much guaranteed money as possible.

Second, LaVine has almost all the leverage here. The Bulls can’t possibly replace him if he leaves. Even if it was a sign-and-trade, it’s unlikely Chicago gets back a player as good as LaVine.

Third, the Bulls are set up to win now. DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic are win-now players. Chicago has to keep LaVine to keep things moving onward and upward.

Lastly, even if LaVine falters some health-wise, his play should remain solid enough that he’ll retain trade value throughout the life of a five-year max deal. That alone should be enough protection for Chicago.

Even with factoring in a $36.6 million deal for LaVine in 2022-23, the Bulls should still be about $11 million clear of the luxury tax with four roster spots to fill. That should give them the ability to use their full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception to attract a solid free agent and still dodge the tax. It’ll take a salary-clearing trade or two, but that’s no big deal. Given the lack of spending power around the NBA this summer, the MLE will be worth more than usual in free agency, as cap space dries up before good players have all found homes.

LaVine’s going to get his max deal. And he’s likely going to get it from the Bulls. There’s nothing team-friendly coming this time around, but Chicago should still be in a good spot to build a contender around LaVine, DeRozan, Vucevic and Lonzo Ball for the next few seasons

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The Complicated Case of Zion Williamson’s Next Contract

Keith SmithMarch 07, 2022

UPDATED 4/29 PER A PROJECTED $128.1M 2023-24 LEAGUE CAP

Zion Williamson has finally made his way back to New Orleans for the next phase of his rehab. Williamson has missed the entire season due to a fracture in his right foot. Williamson spent several months rehabbing away from the team in Portland. Now, he’s back in New Orleans, but there’s still no timetable for his return.

At best, it seems like Williamson might play in 10 or so games this season. And that’s at best. If the uber-talented third-year forward doesn’t appear in games this year, he’ll have played in a grand total of 85 games over his first three seasons. 85 games. Or just three more games than one standard NBA season. And thus come the complications with Williamson’s next contract. All signs point to Williamson wanting a full max deal. The Pelicans may be reluctant to go there. Again, 85 total games. In three years!

What we’re going to do here is break down a few different options for Williamson and the Pelicans, as well as Williamson’s options if New Orleans were to trade him.

One note: Williamson has one year left on his rookie scale deal. He’s under contract to the Pelicans for $13,534,817 for 2022-23. Any new deals we are talking about here would start with the 2023-24 season.

The Full Max

We’ve harped on the 85 games a bit, but those 85 games were pretty great. Williamson averaged 25.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists in those appearances. He’s been borderline dominant as an offensive player whenever we’ve seen him. If the health wasn’t a question, the Pelicans would likely give him a full max extension, without a question. Here’s what that would look like:

2023-24: $32,025,000
2024-25: $34,587,000
2025-26: $37,149,000
2026-27: $39,711,000
2027-28: $42,273,000
Total: Five years, $185,745,000

(based on a $128.1M 23-24 league cap)

This is a five-year extension with 8% raises. It starts at the full projected max of $32,025,000. This is the so-called “standard” max extension that the best players sign coming off their rookie scale contracts. The very best can also command a player option on that fifth season, a la Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell on their current contracts.

The Full Max with “Embiid Protections”

We’re not going to re-do the math here, because the contract would be the same as above, but with some important non-guaranteed money.

Back in 2017, Joel Embiid signed one of the more unique max extensions in NBA history. The Philadelphia 76ers and Embiid agreed to a deal with prior injury protections. If Embiid suffered a relapse with foot or back injuries, which had sidelined him during his first few seasons, the Sixers were able to waive him and get out of the max deal with minimal guaranteed money owed to Embiid before each of the final four seasons of the extension.

The key was that Embiid had to miss 25 games or play fewer than 1,650 minutes in the prior season. If that was the case, Philadelphia could waive him and get out of paying the remaining years of his contact.

Obviously, the above never happened and Embiid blossomed into one of the NBA’s most dominant players. He’s even gone on to sign a second max extension. But the 76ers were protected if things went sideways.

Could New Orleans and Williamson come to an agreement on something similar? It’s possible. They could put in protections for foot or knee injuries, both of which Williamson has had since coming to the NBA. But Embiid’s former deal remains unmatched since he signed it. It’s not just rare, it’s completely unique.

One other factor to consider: Embiid signed that extension with that specific language, because he and the 76ers had a great working relationship from the time he was drafted. Williamson and the Pelicans haven’t been in that spot. That alone could be enough to take this option off the table.

The Designated Player Rookie Extension

Another extension option for Williamson and the Pelicans is to sign an extension with Designated Player language. This is the type of extension that Luka Doncic and Trae Young both signed last offseason and will have kick in for the 2022-23 season.

Essentially, if Williamson comes back and has a monster 2022-23 season, he can qualify to jump from the 0-6 Years of Service/25% of the cap tier to the 7-9 Years of Service/30% of the cap tier. That deal would look like this:

2023-24: $38,430,000
2024-25: $41,504,400
2025-26: $44,578,800
2026-27: $47,653,200
2027-28: $50,727,600
Total: Five years, $222,894,000

(based on a $128.1M 23-24 league cap)

In order to qualify for the Designated Player Rookie Extension, Williamson would have to accomplish one of the following in 2022-23:

Win MVP
Win Defensive Player of the Year
Make an All-NBA Team. This can be First, Second or Third Team.

It’s probably safe to take the first two out of the mix. But it’s not crazy to think Williamson could make an All-NBA team. Again, in a mostly-healthy 2020-21 season, he put up 27/7/4 on 61% shooting. Those are All-NBA type of numbers, especially if the Pelicans make the jump to being a playoff team.

The better question is: Would New Orleans even offer this? This is riskier than a standard max deal because of the roughly $36.8 million more in total salary over the life of the deal. What if Williamson had exactly one healthy, dominant season and then went right back to being injured on a regular basis? Talk about an albatross on your cap sheet.

The Extension After a Trade

Here’s where things get kind of interesting. There’s been extensive reporting that Williamson isn’t exactly happy in New Orleans. If the Pelicans can find a team willing to gamble that they can get him happy and healthy, they could cash in and trade Williamson before signing any sort of extension.

In this case, Williamson would still be eligible to sign any of the extension possibilities laid out above. This includes the Designated Player Rookie Extension. As long as a team acquires a player while they are still on their Rookie Scale contract, they inherit the ability to sign that player to a Designated Player extension.

Something else to keep in mind: It’s likely that Williamson is traded before he signs an extension OR that he’s traded after the extension kicks in with the 2023-24 season. Signing an extension this summer, then trading Williamson at any time during the 2022-23 would come with the “Poison Pill” challenge.

Since a player signed to a Designated Player extension can’t be traded for one year, we’ll use the standard full max extension as our example here.

Because Williamson would have a pending extension on the books, he’d count for his 2022-23 salary of $13,534,817 as outgoing salary for the Pelicans. For the acquiring team, Williamson would count for the average salary of all of the years he’s under contract. In this case, that would be $32,947,470.

That $19.4 million difference makes putting a trade together nearly impossible. Once the league year flips over to 2023-24, Williamson would count for his actual salary of $31,750,000 for both sides of a trade. And, of course, if he’s traded before an extension is signed, Williamson counts for the $13,534,817 salary on both sides.

Playing Things Out to Restricted Free Agency

There are two ways this could go. The first is fairly simple. The Pelicans and Williamson don’t reach agreement on an extension this offseason and he ends up set for restricted free agency in 2023-24. Nothing changes as far as the contracts the Pelicans can offer him, minus the ability to offer a Designated Player Rookie Extension. Because it would be a new contract, New Orleans can’t do the extension. However, if Williamson met the criteria, he would still qualify for the so-called “Rose Rule” and it would essentially be the same deal as the Designated Player Rookie Extension, in terms of salary and years.

And, as always, the Pelicans could offer him a standard full max contract, or an amount less than that.

Second, Williamson could sign an offer sheet with another team and force the Pelicans to either match it or let him walk. That offer sheet projects to look like this:

2023-24: $32,025,000
2024-25: $33,626,250
2025-26: $35,227,500
2026-27: $36,828,750
Total: Four years, $137,707,500

This is a four-year max deal with 5% raises. Generally, an offer sheet includes all the bells and whistles to entice the incumbent to let the player walk. This deal would likely include a 15% trade bonus, a player option on the fourth season and probably some up front actual payments. The idea is to make it so that it’s as uncomfortable as possible for the incumbent team to match.

Signing the Qualifying Offer

This would be unprecedented for a player of Williamson’s stature. No first overall pick has gone this route. Either they’re such a bust that the team holding their free agent rights is ready to move on, or, more commonly, the player is good enough to get a shiny new deal.

It’s been mentioned that eventually some top pick is going to want to change teams badly enough that they won’t sign an extension, nor test the offer sheet process. In that case, the thinking is that player will simply sign their qualifying offer (a one-year contract for a pre-set amount) and then become an unrestricted free agent the following season.

For Williamson, his qualifying offer currently projects to be $17,595,263. If he signed that qualifying offer, he’d play the 2023-24 season for the Pelicans and then become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

However, there is a very important caveat in Williamson’s case. In order to get that $17.6 million Qualifying Offer, he’d have to meet Starter Criteria. That means in 2022-23 (assuming he does not play at all this season), Williamson would have to start either 41 games or play at least 2,000 minutes. Given that he’s played a total of 85 games in three season and topped out at just 2,026 minutes in his one healthy season, there’s a risk Williamson won’t meet Starter Criteria.

If Williamson fails to meet Starter Criteria, his Qualifying Offer would drop to an amount equal to the 15^th pick of his 2019 draft class. (This was Sekou Doumbouya for those that are curious!) In that case, Williamson’s Qualifying Offer would drop to $7,744,600.

Signing the $17.6 million Qualifying Offer is risky enough that it’s unlikely. Signing one for nearly $10 million less would never happen. And it’s important to note that the Pelicans had even a whiff that Williamson might be looking at going the qualifying offer route, they control his starts and playing time. Teams have been known to hold players out, bring them off the bench or reduce their playing time in order to keep Qualifying Offers at a lower amount.

Summary

Zion Williamson’s pending extension talks may be the most fascinating in NBA history. Between his health issues, uneasy relationship with the New Orleans Pelicans and the current trend of players signing extensions and asking for a trade later, this could be a precedent-setting deal.

There are a few priors to consider here. We already covered Joel Embiid. The Sixers center had played in just 31 games when he signed his extension. Those 31 games were terrific, but the injury history gave us the most complicated maximum extension in NBA history. And that type of extension hasn’t been seen since.

A couple of years later, Ben Simmons signed a five-year, maximum extension despite having missed his rookie season. But he had appeared in 81 and 79 games in years two and three of his career. Not exactly the same territory as Williamson.

Markelle Fultz might be the closest comp we have for Williamson. He played in just 33 total games in his first two seasons with the 76ers. He was then traded to the Orlando Magic and played in 72 games in his third year. But given his injury history, and related relative lack of development, Fultz signed a three-year, $50 million extension. And that includes only $2 million in guaranteed money on the final season. It’s hard to imagine Williamson accepting an extension that small.

The other “sort of, but not exactly” player who can work as a comparison is Kristaps Porzingis. He had played in considerably more games than Williamson by the time he was extension eligible, but Porzingis was traded to the Dallas Mavericks while recovering from a torn ACL suffered in his third season. Even though Porzingis missed the entirety of his fourth season, he still signed a full five-year, max deal with the Mavs as a restricted free agent.

There really isn’t a great comp here. Embiid seems safest, but he and the 76ers were already inexorably linked through “The Process” by the time he inked his team-protected extension. There was none of the tension that Williamson and the Pelicans reportedly have.

Usually, we finish these pieces with a projection of what the next deal might look like. In this case, it’s truly impossible. We can comfortably rule out Williamson signing the Qualifying Offer. Given the health issues, it’s hard to believe Williamson will play enough next season to make an All-NBA team and qualify for the Designated Player Rookie Extension. So, we can probably rule that out too.

That leaves either a standard max (which could include the Designated Player language, just in case Williamson breaks out) or playing things out to restricted free agent.

It’s also possible things go the Kristaps Porzingis route. The Knicks were worried Porzingis would never get, and stay, healthy. They simply cut ties and traded him, as opposed to tethering their future to an injury-prone big man. The Pelicans could do the same. And they could do it early enough to leave Williamson time to ink an extension with an acquiring team. Or they could skip the extension and trade Williamson in-season, and let his new team handle his restricted free agency and a new contract as they see fit.

Anyone who tells you they know how this will go down either has a crystal ball, or is simply guessing. Zion Williamson’s next deal, or maybe even lack thereof, will be debated endlessly, because it is truly one of the most complicated contract cases in NBA history.

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What The Next Kyrie Irving Contract Could Look Like

Keith SmithFebruary 28, 2022

It appears New York City is moving close to lifting the vaccine mandates that have kept Kyrie Irving from playing in home games for the Brooklyn Nets this season. That potentially removes an immediate concern of Irving’s availability for postseason home games for the Nets. But just as big of a concern looms this offseason.

Irving has a $36.9 million player option for the 2022-23 season, as the final year of the four-year deal he signed with Brooklyn in the summer of 2019. The most likely course of action is that Irving will decline that option and become an unrestricted free agent. But whatever you think is most likely to happen and Kyrie Irving don’t always go hand in hand.

With that in mind, here are all the reasonable contract options for Irving this summer.

The Opt-In

The most simple and straightforward thing Irving could do is to opt in for the 2022-23 season. That would put him on the Brooklyn books for $36,934,550. He would then be an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights in the summer of 2023.

This is the least likely path Irving will take for a couple of different reasons. First, Irving has had some serious health issues over the years. He’s had two occurrences of serious knee injuries, and he’s battled other ailments as well. He’s also turning 30 years old at the end of March, which still remains an age barrier that often comes with a drop in production for guards.

Second, Irving would be leaving considerably money on the table by picking up his option. Whether with the Nets, or another team, he can get over $5 million more in just 2022-23 salary alone. Factor in raises and additional years of salary, and it would be a shock to see Irving opt in for next season.

The Veteran Extension

This scenario is plausible, but not overly likely. Simply because Irving would be leaving a year on the table in this type of extension. Now, that may not be of the biggest concern, as Irving may not push for the full five years he could get in a new deal, but he would be limited to four years in an extension.

It’s important to note that there are three ways Irving could do this type of extension. He could opt out for 2022-23 now and sign a four-year extension starting next season. Or Irving could opt in for 2022-23 and sign a three-year extension. Or he could opt in after this season and then add four years on to that.

The latter two scenarios would both cost Irving money in 2022-23, and thus over the life of the extension, so we’re not even going to bother covering them. But the first scenario is still semi-plausible. Here’s what the numbers would look like:

2022-23: $42,350,000
2023-24: $45,738,000
2024-25: $49,126,000
2025-26: $52,514,000
Total: Four years, $189,728,000

This is a four-year extension with 8% raises. What’s interesting is that Irving would technically sign for 120% of his current $35.3 million salary, but that amount would take him just a hair above his projected max salary of $42,350,000 for 2022-23. In that case, his salary would get amended down to the maximum allowable for next season.

For what it’s worth, this extension would be for the exact same amount Irving could sign for in a four-year deal with Brooklyn. But we’ll come back to that later.

The Full Max with the Nets

If Irving is happy in Brooklyn, and the Nets are happy with Irving, they can go the full five-year max deal for the veteran point guard. In that scenario, Irving would opt out for 2022-23 and sign a new, five-year deal. The first four years would look the same as above, but a fifth year would get tacked on, making the deal look like this:

2022-23: $42,350,000
2023-24: $45,738,000
2024-25: $49,126,000
2025-26: $52,514,000
2026-27: $55,902,000
Total: Five years, $245,630,000

This is a five-year deal with 8% raises. As Irving now has 10 years of service, this is the absolute maximum he can command in a new contract. The key is that he can only get a fifth season, plus the 8% raises from the Nets.

The Full Max with Another Team

It seems highly unlikely Irving will leave Brooklyn. He wanted to go there and he recruited Kevin Durant to team up with him on the Nets. The team also seems positioned to be a title contender for at least the next few seasons, assuming Durant and Irving stick around and stay healthy.

But…this is Kyrie Irving we’re talking about. He’s a pretty unpredictable guy. Let’s say he’s not really happy in Brooklyn. Or let’s say some form of the vaccine mandate sticks around or seems likely to come back. In either of those scenarios, maybe Irving looks to head elsewhere.

If that happens, Irving could either sign with a team via cap space or he could move via sign-and-trade. This summer, no teams project to have enough cap space to sign Irving directly. A couple can get within the range necessary, so the idea isn’t entirely off the table. But if Irving is leaving Brooklyn, it would most likely occur via sign-and-trade. The good news is, for our purposes here, the contract would be the exact same either way:

2022-23: $42,350,000
2023-24: $44,467,500
2024-25: $46,585,000
2025-26: $48,702,500
Total: Four years, $182,105,000

That’s a four-year deal with 5% raises, which is the max Irving can get from another team, either straight signing via cap space or via sign-and-trade. The first-year money is the same, but over the life of the deal Irving would sacrifice considerable money. He’d forfeit over $7.6 million from the extension or four-year max scenario. And Irving would give up over $63.5 million compared to signing the five-year max with the Nets.

Summary

Kyrie Irving is different from most basketball players. He does his own thing, almost without concern for public opinion. He famously (or infamously in New England) told the crowd at TD Garden that he’d be re-signing with the Boston Celtics if they’d have him. Eight months or so later, Irving signed with Brooklyn.

This season, despite pressure from all corners of the NBA world, including from some folks with the Nets, Irving held firm in his beliefs and did not get vaccinated. It’s cost him considerable money, as well missing approximately two-thirds of Brooklyn’s games.

But Kyrie Irving isn’t crazy. He certainly does his own thing, and he’s never been one who is solely financially driven. If so, he wouldn’t have left Boston for Brooklyn while leaving considerable money on the table. And he certainly wouldn’t have sat out most of this season if he made all his decisions based on finances.

But Irving still has taken a pretty big financial hit this year. Combine that with his ostensible happiness to play with Kevin Durant in Brooklyn, and it’s unlikely he’s going anywhere. The most likely path is that Irving signs either a straight four-year deal, or a five-year deal with a player option on the final season, for the maximum. That will allow him to align his tenure with the Nets with Durant, as both could hit free agency again in the summer of 2026. At that point, Irving will be 34 years old, while Durant will be turning 38 prior to the 2026-27 season.

NBA players are playing longer and longer, and at higher levels, than ever before. It’s not a lock that Irving and/or Durant would be retiring before another contract 2026. But it is likely that Irving’s next contract will align with Durant’s to at least set them up to make that decision together.

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A Deep Dive Into Jalen Brunson's Contract Options

Keith SmithFebruary 21, 2022

At the trade deadline, the Dallas Mavericks shed themselves of Kristaps Porzingis’ salary, but replaced it with two salaries of total similar value in Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Those two deals, combined with Luka Doncic’s Designated Rookie Extension, Dorian Finney-Smith’s recent veteran extension and other salary obligations have the Mavs set up to be in “luxury tax hell” per Mark Cuban.

Despite having nearly $137 million committed to their 2022-23 roster, Cuban says the Mavericks intend to do “whatever we have to” to keep guard Jalen Brunson. This seems to be true even if that guaranteed salary figure grows to over $151.5 million, pending roster decisions for Trey Burke, Maxi Kleber and Frank Ntilikina.

For reference purposes: This season the Golden State Warriors have a guaranteed salary amount of grater than $175.8 million, while the Brooklyn Nets are carrying more than $168.8 million. Factoring in a re-signed Brunson, and the Mavs will be in range of the priciest rosters in NBA history.

But before we get there, let’s examine what Brunson’s options for his next contract are. He’s got a handful of ways he can go, either before this season ends or this summer.

Veteran Extension

If Brunson and the Mavs wanted to, he could sign a veteran extension today. This type of extension goes by many nicknames, but for our purposes here, we’ll call it “The Dinwiddie” in honor of Brunson’s now teammate, Spencer Dinwiddie.

Because Dallas has full Bird rights for Brunson, but because his current salary is under the estimated average salary ($10,335,000), he can sign an extension with a pretty healthy raise. As a point of order, this is exactly what teammate Dorian Finney-Smith just did when he signed his version of “The Dinwiddie”.

This type of extension allows for Brunson to sign for 120% of the estimated average salary, then to get 8% raises on top of that first-year salary.

Here’s how it would look salary-wise:

2022-23: $12,402,000
2023-24: $13,394,160
2024-25: $14,386,320
2025-26: $15,378,480
Total: Four years, $55,560,960

In Finney-Smith’s case, he got a player option on his final season and he also got a 5% trade bonus in his extension.

Now, this deal worked for Finney-Smith, as it worked for Dinwiddie and others. But those who signed this type of extension weren’t quite at Brunson’s level as a player. Dinwiddie is a good comp for Brunson, as both are somewhat similar as score-first point guards, who have been solid secondary-playmakers.

When Dinwiddie signed his extension, he was in the midst of a season that saw him average 16.8 points and 4.6 assists per game. This was after a breakout season with the Brooklyn Nets, where Dinwiddie averaged 12.6 points and 6.6 assists per game, but on 39% shooting from the field, including 33% from behind the arc. In addition, Dinwiddie had a prior injury history to consider, as he had previously torn his ACL.

This year, Brunson is averaging 16.3 points and 5.4 assists. Last season, Brunson averaged 12.6 points and 3.5 assists. But he’s a far better shooter than Dinwiddie, as he hits 49% from the field and 37% from three for his career. Also, there are no serious injury concerns with Brunson either.

Add it all up, and Dallas got one potential bargain with Finney-Smith on “The Dinwiddie”. They won’t get another one with Brunson, as he’d be leaving too much money on the table.

The Max Deal With Dallas

Let’s preface this by saying that Jalen Brunson isn’t a max player. Barring a massive playoff run where’s he’s a huge part of leading the Mavericks to the NBA Finals, Brunson won’t approach max money. But, for posterity’s sake, here’s the projected max deal Brunson could ink with Dallas this summer:

2022-23: $30,250,000
2023-24: $32,670,000
2024-25: $35,090,000
2025-26: $37,510,000
2026-27: $39,930,000
Total: Five years, $175,450,000

That’s the 0-6 Years of Service five-year contract, max contract. It starts out at the first-year max with 8% raises.

Yes, that’s too rich for Dallas. Signing Brunson to such a deal would put the Mavericks in range of the Golden State Warriors payroll for this year. That’s too much for a team that has yet to advance out of the first round with this core group of players.

The Max Deal With Another Team

Could Brunson leave Dallas for a max deal somewhere else? It’s possible. The challenge is that only a handful of teams project to be in range of offering Brunson a max deal this summer. But there are always ways of clearing salary and, of course, sign-and-trades.

If, say the Detroit Pistons decide Brunson is the guy they need next to Cade Cunningham, they can do a max deal for Brunson. If the New York Knicks, one of Brunson’s long-rumored suitors, were willing to give him a max deal, they could arrange a sign-and-trade to send a couple of contracts back to the Mavericks. Or they could rope in a third team to help facilitate a deal.

If Brunson were to change teams on a max deal via straight signing or via sign-and-trade, here’s what that projected max contract would look like:

2022-23: $30,250,000
2023-24: $31,762,500
2024-25: $33,275,000
2025-26: $34,787,500
Total: Four years, $130,075,000

That’s the same starting maximum starting salary Brunson could get from the Mavericks, but with only 5% raises in the subsequent seasons.

It’s likely that’s too rich for another team. Again, Brunson is a really solid player, but he hasn’t shown he’s a maximum player. Nor has Brunson shown he can be the number one option on a playoff team, which a max player should be.

Finding Middle Ground

This is where things get interesting. There’s about $18 million in wiggle room between “The Dinwiddie” extension Brunson can sign and the maximum amount Brunson can get as a free agent.

And almost right in the middle is the sweet spot for Brunson.

Looking at the teams who have a need at point guard this summer, combined with the Mavs desire to keep Brunson, you can start to formulate what it’ll take to pull him away from Dallas. Or for the Mavericks to re-sign him long-term.

Given that Detroit (via cap space) or New York (via sign-and-trade) could both easily do deals averaging $20 million or so, that seems to be the baseline for Brunson. Something in the four-year, $80 million range seems fair for both player and team.

For Dallas, that type of deal could look something like:

2022-23: $18,000,000
2023-24: $19,440,000
2024-25: $20,880,000
2025-26: $22,320,000
Total: Four years, $80,640,000

For Detroit or New York (or anyone else), to get to similar total money, they’d have to up the first-year salary by a bit. That would leave them looking at deal similar to:

2022-23: $18,800,000
2023-24: $19,740,000
2024-25: $20,680,000
2025-26: $21,620,000
Total: Four years, $80,840,000

Given Brunson’s age, production and projections to continue to be a solid player through his late-20s, those deal structures seem fair for both player and team. Now, if Detroit or New York (or anyone else) wanted to pull Brunson away, they could always go a little bit higher with their offer.

For the Pistons especially, given their potential cap space, this summer is bereft of quality free agents. If they want to spend some of their projected $31.4 million on a long-term point guard option to grow with Cade Cunningham and their young roster, they’d do worse than starting Brunson out at something even as high as $21 million in first-year salary. That total deal would look like:

2022-23: $21,000,000
2023-24: $22,050,000
2024-25: $23,100,000
2025-26: $24,150,000
Total: Four years, $90,300,000

Yes, that might seem a touch high, but to get players to change teams, especially to a rebuilding one, sometimes you need to up your offer. Given the cap is projected to continue to rise, $23 million and $24 million doesn’t seem too extravagant for a solid point guard, who will be entering his prime years in 2024-25 and 2025-26.

Summary

Jalen Brunson is going to get paid this summer. The Dallas Mavericks won’t get him on a steal of a deal via “The Dinwiddie” extension, but they won’t have to max him out either. If Mark Cuban is prepared to go deep into the tax, something like the four-year, $80 million option we laid out above should be enough. But if Brunson wants to maximize his non-max payday, he could use the Detroit Pistons cap space to get himself a bigger deal.

Given the lack of quality free agents, but also lack of need for point guards around the NBA, Brunson should land right in the middle of “The Dinwiddie” extension and a max deal. And that’s a contract that should retain positive value as Brunson ages, while also putting him in position to sign a lucrative third contract when it expires.

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