There is a lot of reporting around the NBA that James Harden isn’t a lock to stay with the Brooklyn Nets following this season. Harden didn’t sign a contract extension before the start of the season, so that’s left the door open to speculation about what his future holds.

To add to the natural questions that come with any possible free agent, Harden has a readymade suitor waiting to acquire him.

The Philadelphia 76ers and President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey are known to want Harden. Philadelphia tried to land him last season, when Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Nets. Morey and the Sixers don’t want to miss out a second time.

That gives Harden some flexibility with his next contract. It also gives him some flexibility in picking a destination. Well…to some extent. If Harden wants to get to Philadelphia, he’ll likely need Brooklyn and General Manager Sean Marks to play ball.

Let’s break down each of the possibilities for Harden, both before next week’s trade deadline and this summer.

The Straight Trade This Season

The 76ers would love to swap Ben Simmons for James Harden right now. That would allow Harden and Philadelphia to reach an agreement on a new contract in whatever form they wish. The options open to him with Philadelphia would be the same as they are with Brooklyn.

The challenge? The Nets are title contenders. So are the Sixers. Brooklyn isn’t going to help Philadelphia massively improve their immediate championship odds. The Nets would have to be enamored with Simmons, both for this season and beyond, to even consider it. And that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Basically: Forget about any sort of Harden trade happening in the next week or so.

Opting Out and Signing Elsewhere

We’re going to knock this one out very quickly, because it’s highly unlikely.

First, only three teams project to have cap space this summer (Detroit, Orlando and San Antonio) and none look like they’ll have enough space to give Harden his first-year maximum of $46.5 million.

That leaves Harden with a sign-and-trade as the possibility to change teams as a free agent. Because his salary for this season is above the maximum salary, Harden is in a unique position of being eligible to sign with another team for the same first-year salary as can get from Brooklyn. However, if Harden changes teams, even via sign-and-trade, he’s only eligible for a four-year contract vs the five-year deal he can get from the Nets. He’s also limited to 5% raises if he changes teams vs 8% if he re-signs with Brooklyn.

Here's what opting out and changing teams would look like for Harden:

• 2022-23: $46,526,382
• 2023-24: $48,852,701
• 2024-25: $51,179,020
• 2025-26: $53,505,339
• Total: Four years, $200,063,442

That’s leaving over $69 million on the table vs signing a five-year deal with the Nets. And it still involves Brooklyn helping Harden leave town. And the acquiring team would immediately become hard capped at approximately $151 million in team salary for the 2022-23 because they acquired Harden via sign-and-trade. That’s makes building out a contending roster extremely difficult.

Of all the options, this path is the most unlikely after a straight trade in the next week-and-a-half. This is because of the complexities involved with changing teams, as well as Harden leaving so much money on the table.

Opting Out and Re-signing with Brooklyn

In most cases, a player can make the most money by opting out and signing a new contract. In general, the cap rises faster than salaries do, making signing a new deal the best path.

For a couple of reasons, James Harden is in a unique spot where this doesn’t apply to him.

First off, Harden has been on a max salary for a while now, including being grandfathered into Designated Veteran Player status several years ago. That means his current maximum salary is nearly $5 million above the regular maximum salary for a 10+ year veteran ($44.3 million to $39.3 million).

Next, because of the pandemic, the cap isn’t going up as rapidly as previously anticipated. Most projections have the cap rising by a minimal amount for at least another year ($112 million to $119 million). That’s kept max salaries down somewhat; to a point where Harden’s maximum salary for 2022-23 remains almost $5 million above the regular 10+ year maximum salary.

Finally, because Harden is already above the maximum salary, he’s entitled to 5% bump in salary from this season’s $44.3 million to $46.5 million for 2022-23.

If Harden opted out and re-signed with Brooklyn for the max, his new deal would look like this:

• 2022-23: $46,526,382
• 2023-24: $50,248,493
• 2024-25: $53,970,604
• 2025-26: $57,692,715
• 2026-27: $61,414,826
• Total: Five years, $269,853,020

Yes…James Harden would get paid over $61 million in his age-37 season in 2026-27 in this scenario.

But…he won’t. Because opting out and re-signing isn’t the most lucrative path to maximize his earnings.

Opting In and Extending with Brooklyn

Here’s where things get interesting and really, really expensive!

Remember how we said Harden is in a unique situation because of how high his salary currently is? That applies in an extension as well.

In this scenario, Harden would opt in for $47.4 million for 2022-23. He’d then sign a four-year extension with the Nets this offseason, giving him five total seasons under contract. Like the opt out and re-sign option, this results in a contract running through 2026-27, but Harden would start at a higher first-year salary, which would push his deal to even more total money.

Here’s what opting in for 2022-23 and signing a four-year extension would look like:

• 2022-23: $47,366,760
• 2023-24: $49,735,098
• 2024-25: $53,713,906
• 2025-26: $57,692,714
• 2026-27: $61,671,522
• Total: Five years, $270,180,000

Yes…like before Harden would make over $60 million in his age-37 season in 2026-27.

This option starts to look like one of those massive Major League Baseball contracts where the aging star is getting paid long after he should be an everyday player. Albert Pujols anyone? Essentially, you are paying in the future for past performance.

This is the most lucrative path for Harden to maximize his earnings. That makes it the most likely path forward…unless Harden really wants to change teams to get away from Brooklyn.

Opting In, Traded and Extending with New Team

If Harden really wants to leave the Nets, the exact same contract as opting in and extending with Brooklyn is open to him if he opts in for 2022-23 and is traded. There are a couple of caveats though.

Harden wouldn’t be eligible to sign an extension with a new team for six months after being traded. But because he’d be in the final season of his deal in this scenario, he can sign that four-year extension at any point. Extensions only have to be completed in the offseason is more than one season is remaining on the contract. Expiring deals can be extended at any time.

The second, and more important caveat, is that his option allows Harden to maximize his earnings, while also preventing the acquiring team from becoming hard capped for the 2022-23 season. Because it would a be a straight trade vs a sign-and-trade, the hard cap wouldn’t come into play. That would make building out a contending roster far more viable, if still extremely expensive.

If Harden wants out of Brooklyn, this is the best, and most likely path forward.

Summary

There are basically five options for James Harden laid out above, in essentially ascending order of likelihood of happening. The sixth option is that Harden opts in for 2022-23, plays out the season on an expiring deal and becomes a free agent in 2023. But at his age, with a mounting injury history, that’s so unlikely it’s not even worth considering.

The best bet for Harden is to opt in for 2022-23 and either agree to an extension with Brooklyn or to force a trade and sign an extension six months later. That second option maintains the Nets as a title contender this season, without strengthening a rival. And it gives Marks and Morey time to figured out a trade package for this summer. If Brooklyn doesn’t want Ben Simmons, then Philadelphia can find a third team to route Simmons to, while getting value in the deal for the Nets.

Or, if the Nets play well and maybe win a title, Harden can opt in and re-sign and keep competing for championships alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the immediate future. It’ll be one or the two, as the chance to make nearly $275 million over the next five years is simply too alluring to pass up.

The NBA trade deadline is just over two weeks away. That means we’re full-on into posturing season. Phrases like “We can wait until the summer if we have to” and “It will take a lot to get him” are popular at this time of year.

But two weeks from the deadline is when things start getting serious. Most teams know who the real suitors are and who is just expressing interest. By this point, teams also have a fairly good handle on what realistic value is for the players they are open to trading. Most importantly, teams have a sense of what offers are on the table for their players. Things start to move relatively rapidly when the deadline gets close.

With all that in mind, here are 10 players to keep an eye on as the trade deadline approaches.

Ben Simmons

2021-22 Contract: $33,003,936
Remaining Contract: 3 years, $113,680,224
Interested Teams: Kings, Pacers, Hornets, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, Cavaliers
Why should the 76ers trade him? It would be disingenuous to start with any other player. Ben Simmons has been on the block since the summer. He doesn’t want to be in Philadelphia anymore and the Sixers don’t seem to be overly upset with that idea. The issue has been finding a team to meet Daryl Morey’s exorbitant asking price. There’s also the fact that Morey doesn’t seem to feel pressure to move Simmons unless that price is met. And, finally, factor in Morey really seems to think he can reunite with James Harden this summer. That all seems to be holding up a Simmons deal, which is also helping to hold up the trade market as a whole.

Harrison Barnes

2021-22 Contract: $20,284,091
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $18,352,273
Interested Teams: Bulls, 76ers, Celtics, Jazz
Why should the Kings trade him? The Kings look like they are open to talking about trading anyone on their roster that isn’t De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. Heck, those two might even be up for grabs, depending on who you believe. That means Harrison Barnes is certainly on the table. Barnes has had another solid season. As one GM put it “He can be your third best player if you need him to be. If you need him to be your sixth best player, he can be that too. No ego. Just wants to play and win.” That’s a guy teams should be lining up to acquire, especially when you consider he’s fairly paid for this year and next.

Jerami Grant

2021-22 Contract: $20,002,500
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $20,955,000
Interested Teams: Bulls, Lakers, Celtics, Jazz, Wizards
Why should the Pistons trade him? Jerami Grant was a major signing for Detroit in the 2020 offseason. He prioritized playing for the Pistons and was seen as a key part of their rebuild. A season-and-a-half later, Grant is on the trade block. Reports are that both Grant and Pistons have an understanding. If they can fetch a nice return, they will send Grant to a contender. Detroit won’t be ready to contend by the time Grant is a free agent again in 2023, so it makes sense for them to explore a trade. The challenge is that Grant wants a four-year extension approaching $30 million per season. That’s a big chunk of change for a player who most teams see as a high-end starter, but not a true star.

Robert Covington

2021-22 Contract: $12,975,471
Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent in 2022
Interested Teams: Jazz, Bulls, Lakers
Why should the Trail Blazers trade him? Portland is caught in the “Bird Rights Trap” with Robert Covington and the next players on this list, Jusuf Nurkic. The Blazers don’t have the ability to replace either player if they leave as free agents, because Portland is capped out. But signing either one to a long-term, expensive contract could turn sour very quickly. Covington’s shooting has dropped just enough, that it’s probably time for the Trail Blazers to sell as high as they can get a player under contract for at least a couple of seasons to replace him.

Jusuf Nurkic

2021-22 Contract: $12,000,000
Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent in 2022
Interested Teams: Nets, Hornets, Warriors, Bucks
Why should the Trail Blazers trade him? Like Robert Covington, Portland has to be careful how they handle Jusuf Nurkic’s situation moving forward. Unlike Covington, the Blazers don’t have a built-in replacement already on their roster for Nurkic. But that shouldn’t keep them from exploring moving the big man. The center market can be tricky, because so many teams no longer prioritize the position. The good news for Portland? The handful of teams that need a center, really need a center. And there aren’t very many on the market. That could net the Trail Blazers a nice return for a player that isn’t likely a part of their long-term future.

Dennis Schroder 

2021-22 Contract: $5,890,000
Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent in 2022
Interested Teams: Cavaliers, Bulls, Mavericks
Why should the Celtics trade him? Dennis Schroder’s availability is a little complicated. If Boston can finally turn things around and bank some wins over the next two weeks, they may not trade him at all. He’s a key rotation player at a position of need for the Celtics. On the flip side, if Boston keeps floundering around .500, a backup scoring point guard is a luxury. And Schroder is likely leaving town at the end of the season anyway. Contenders are always looking for bench scoring and backup guard help. That should net the Celtics at least a small asset in return, while freeing up minutes for a younger player the rest of the season.

Caris LeVert 

2021-22 Contract: $17,500,000
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $18,796,296
Interested Teams: Cavaliers, Lakers, Jazz
Why should the Pacers trade him? This entry could, and would, have featured Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner had they both not suffered injuries recently. While Indiana would still trade them, their health makes their markets uncertain. That leaves Caris LeVert as the Pacers player that is most likely to move. Indiana has done all but hang an “Everything must go!” sign in the window at this point. They aren’t blowing it up, but the Pacers are certainly resetting things. That leaves LeVert as a luxury and someone Indiana should be able to get a decent return for, given a handful of teams need scoring/offense-creation help around the league.

Christian Wood

2021-22 Contract: $13,666,667 Remaining Contract: 1 year, $14,317,459
Interested Teams: Nets, Hornets, Warriors
Why should the Rockets trade him? The answer here is: The Rockets should not trade Christian Wood. He’s young enough, versatile enough and signed to a good enough contract that Houston should be keeping Wood. He fits in nicely with their young building blocks. But if the Rockets are looking a couple years out, when they’re likely be moving towards playoff contention, they may not see Wood as a part of that mix on a new, more expensive contract. If so, now is the time to move him. Because Wood is signed through next season, that’s attractive for a contender. They get the rest of this year, plus a bonus year. If Houston moves Wood, they could snag the biggest non-Simmons-related return of all players moved at the deadline.

Eric Gordon 

2021-22 Contract: $18,218,818
Remaining Contract: 2 years, $40,486,262 (only $19,568,360 in 2022-23 is guaranteed)
Interested Teams: Nets, Lakers, Bulls, Jazz
Why should the Rockets trade him? Unlike with Christian Wood, Houston should be looking to move Eric Gordon. He overlaps positionally with some of the Rockets best young players and by the time Houston is ready to push for the playoffs, Gordon will likely have aged out. Because of the additional years, the Rockets can’t expect a massive return. But getting off that money would help free up some flexibility for the 2022 offseason

Terrence Ross

2021-22 Contract: $12,500,000
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $11,500,000
Interested Teams: Lakers, Bulls, Jazz, Celtics, Cavaliers, Wizards
Why should the Magic trade him? Terrence Ross was the last man standing when Orlando tore down their roster last trade deadline. This season, he’ll probably be the next one moved. The Magic have a ton of young players who can play the two and three, so they don’t have a need for Ross. Contenders are always looking for bench scoring and shooting, so Orlando should get a decent return. It might not be the first-round pick they want, but two good second-rounds seems likely. Bonus: Look for the Magic to also move Gary Harris. If they’re willing to take back a little questionable salary into 2022-23 and beyond, Orlando might even get a first-round pick in a Harris trade.

Notable Links:

NBA Trade Tracker

NBA Transaction Wire

The NBA trade deadline is just three weeks away on February 10. Trade season has been slow to pick up since unofficially opening on December 15, when the majority of offseason signings became trade-eligible. Teams battled through COVID-related hardships, resulting in well over 100 callups on 10-day contracts around the league. The need to just put a roster on the floor put a temporary pause on trade talks.

Teams are now out of the woods with hardships and trade talks are happening across the league. Most around the NBA expect a fairly busy deadline, as there are no clear title favorites and the 2022 free agent class is seen as very weak. That generally gives teams motivation to make deadline deals.

At the trade deadline, teams sort into one of four categories: Buyers, Sellers, Either or Neither. Here’s where each Western Conference team stands three weeks from the deadline:

(Note: The Eastern Conference Buyers and Sellers can be found here)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have been playing really well as of late. And they’re back to full health as well. Pinpointing needs is a bit difficult, because they do so much well. What the Mavs don’t do well, they hope will come with better health and players breaking out of slumps.

Expect Dallas to be buyers, but in a different sort of way. They could buy by selling some players who may not be with the team long-term. Jalen Brunson, who is due a big contract as an unrestricted free agent this summer, is the best trade asset the Mavs have. The challenge is his contract is too small to bring back much alone. But pair him with Dwight Powell or Tim Hardaway Jr. and you might be on to something. The Mavericks also have a $10.8 million trade exception to use if they can acquire a rotation player at the deadline.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets might have already made their “big” move when they acquired Bryn Forbes. The next “acquisitions” for Denver will likely come when Jamal Murray, and possibly Michael Porter Jr., return from their injuries.

Nikola Jokic is turning in another MVP season and he’s kept Denver afloat despite a ton of injuries. Forbes will give the Nuggets some shooting, which they desperately need. Beyond that, the rotation seems pretty flush with talent when healthy. That will improve even more when Murray gets back and if Porter can join the fray.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors don’t need a whole lot. They got Klay Thompson back and he looks pretty good already. Presumably James Wiseman will return at some point, but that’s been delayed a couple of different times now.

Looking at the roster, Golden State could use another big man. Maybe that’s Wiseman, but a veteran would be preferred. The Dubs don’t really have assets to offer in a deal though. They don’t seem likely to move Wiseman yet, and Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody aren’t going anywhere either. Maybe some frontcourt help comes via the buyout market, but it’s hard to find an easy cut for this team to make. What you see, is probably what you get.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are firmly in the seller category. But what exactly is Houston selling? They’d love to move John Wall, but no one is taking on $91.6 million through next year. That’s one that will wait until the offseason. Or maybe Wall starts to rethink his stance on a buyout after the deadline, a la Blake Griffin last season.

Beyond Wall, D.J. Augustin is very available. As is Daniel Theis. There’s been buzz around Christian Wood, but Houston seems to want to keep him. The best value the Rockets may find will be in a trade for Eric Gordon. Gordon has shot the lights out this year, so getting a decent return no longer seems farfetched. There’s a good chance he’s elsewhere by the deadline and Houston will get another asset to continue their rebuild.

LA Clippers

The Clippers aren’t really buyers or sellers. Had Paul George stayed healthy, they probably would have been buyers. But now, everything seems pretty uncertain for LA. Kawhi Leonard might come back, but he might not. George’s and Leonard’s returns will likely be driven by the team’s postseason prospects.

The same holds true for the trade deadline. The Clips have a few players of interest to other teams, but the team isn’t rebuilding. If they can reset in a way that sets them up for a big 2022-23, then maybe LA makes a move. Most likely, they sit the deadline out and do some tinkering around their stars this summer.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are lot like when you were a kid with the toy calendar at Christmas. You want all sorts of stuff, but you know you aren’t getting it unless Santa delivers a miracle. Los Angeles simply doesn’t have the assets to net anything of value in a trade. They’ve offered the Talen Horton-Tucker/Kendrick Nunn combo to everyone and no one is biting yet.

Also: forget a Russell Westbrook trade. We’ve seen him get moved three offseasons in a row, but his deal is too big to be a part of an in-season trade. If the Lakers become the latest team to move on from Westbrook, it will happen this summer.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are cautious buyers. Somehow, a lot of people still don’t know just how good Memphis is. That under-the-radar theme probably applies to the Griz at the deadline too.

Another shooter and one more big, ideally one with shooting range, are on the shopping list. Memphis isn’t going to give up a ton to add players though. The Grizzlies prize the depth they’ve built. If anything happens, keep an eye on expiring players Kyle Anderson, Jarrett Culver and Tyus Jones. A package of those players is a nice bit of salary-matching and could return a help player, both for now and the long-term.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are doing their best to buy. They’ve been in on Ben Simmons all season, but don’t have the assets to get Philadelphia to budge. Minnesota has been dangling Malik Beasley and Taurean Prince, either as a package or individually. That could return the Timberwolves a nice player, but only if they back off the Simmons dream first.

Given their depth, there isn’t a lot Minnesota needs. A forward with range would be good. A wing defender would help a lot. And a backup point guard to keep the offensive humming when D’Angelo Russell sits are all realistic holes the Wolves could fill in the right deal or deals.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are soft sellers. They aren’t blowing this team up, but they’ve got some players that could net a nice return. Ideally, they’d get at least somewhat of a look at their main guys with Zion Williamson this season, but that seems less likely with each passing week.

Josh Hart could be on the move, as his contract was designed to be very tradable. Tomas Satoransky is the only pending free agent on the roster, and he’s very available. If New Orleans can get a player or two to help a Hail Mary Play-In push that can also be a part of the team long-term, they’ll make a move. Otherwise, they’ll sit it out the deadline and retool yet again this summer.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are buyers, but not for veteran help. It’s all about draft picks and young players for OKC. Pending how they use their remaining trade exceptions, the Thunder could be sitting on about $34 million in cap space. That will make Sam Presti every GM’s first call when they need a third team in to facilitate a deal.

Expect Oklahoma City to also be everyone’s favorite dumping ground if they need to avoid or lessen a tax bill. If Presti can pick up a young player that needs a change of scenery or some additional draft picks, he’ll gladly welcome all the salary dumps he can get. The Thunder are also $22.7 million below the salary floor. Expect lots of movement here over the next few weeks.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns will upgrade their rotation if the right deal comes along, but they feel no pressure to make a move. Phoenix is at least two-deep at every spot in their rotation. They have a good mix of vets, in-their-prime players and talented youngsters too.

Dario Saric is the player being offered up, since he’s out for the season and Phoenix would lose no production in a trade. If a wing defender or versatile forward becomes available, the Suns will likely get involved. That will protect them if Mikal Bridges or Jae Crowder have to miss any time. Beyond that, Phoenix will just keep cruising into the playoffs.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers and Sacramento Kings are the teams everyone has their eyes on in the Western Conference. Damian Lillard probably isn’t going anywhere until, and if, he asks for a trade. But everyone else seems to be fair game in trade talks in Portland. Well, minus Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little, who interim GM Joe Cronin won’t let get away.

The Trail Blazers are running up against getting caught in the “Bird Rights Trap” with Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Covington. Portland doesn’t have the cap space to replace either play if they leave town, and that could lean towards re-signing them to contracts that turn sour very quickly. One way to avoid that is to trade them before those decisions needs to be made.

Keep an eye on Norman Powell and Larry Nance Jr. too. They’re newer to Portland, but could really help fill holes on contenders, while delivering a nice return for the Trail Blazers.

Lastly, Portland will talk trades involving C.J. McCollum, but the size of his deal makes that more likely to happen this summer than at the deadline. However, after years of declining trades involving McCollum, the Blazers are finally inching in that direction.

Sacramento Kings

Much like their friends to the north, the Kings are open to moving just about anyone. They’ve denied they’re listening on or shopping De’Aaron Fox, but where there is that much smoke, there is usually fire. The denials haven’t come for anyone else but second-year guard Tyrese Haliburton either. That signals Sacramento is open for business.

For the umpteenth year, Harrison Barnes is a player that can help every contender because of his production and plug-and-play ability. Buddy Hield is a target for teams that need shooting. Marvin Bagley is someone rebuilding clubs like as a “second draft” guy. And lots of teams would love to pry Richaun Holmes away.

It’s likely the Kings will look very different in a few weeks. Maybe even as different as to have moved on from their franchise player as they kick off yet another rebuild.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs did their first in-season deal where they traded a player away in years, when they sent Bryn Forbes to the Denver Nuggets. Don’t expect a whole lot more, as San Antonio has generally sat out the trade deadline as an organizational rule.

If the Spurs do another deal, it will likely involve sending Thaddeus Young to a contender. He’s not a part of the present nor future in San Antonio. Even a minor return would be good for the veteran forward. If Young isn’t traded, expect a buyout to come after the deadline passes.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are buyers. After a few years of good regular seasons followed by earlier-than-hoped-for playoff exits, Utah wants to get a player or two to push them over the top. They’ve offered Joe Ingles and a down-the-line first-round pick to teams, but haven’t found a taker yet. Jordan Clarkson could be moved as well, but his struggles this season have left his market fairly dry.

Despite slipping some in the standings over recent weeks, no one expects the Jazz to even remotely entertain moving Rudy Gobert or Donovan Mitchell. If that slide continues, or if Utah gets bounced early in the playoffs, expect that speculation to ramp up heading into the offseason.

The NBA trade deadline is just over four weeks away on February 10. Trade season has been slow to pick up since unofficially opening on December 15, when the majority of offseason signings became trade-eligible. Teams battled through COVID-related hardships, resulting in well over 100 callups on 10-day contracts around the league. The need to just put a roster on the floor put a temporary pause on trade talks.

Teams are now coming out of the woods with hardships and trade talks are ramping up. Most around the NBA expect a fairly busy deadline, as there are no clear title favorites and the 2022 free agent class is seen as very weak. That generally gives teams motivation to make deadline deals.

At the trade deadline, teams sort into one of four categories: Buyers, Sellers, Either or Neither. Here’s where each Eastern Conference team stands one month from the deadline:

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are in a bit of a weird spot. They’ve been underachievers all year, but don’t seem primed for any sort of sell-off. Their core players are too young for that to be considered. Still, general manager Travis Schlenk said he “wouldn’t be doing my job” if he wasn’t looking at moves.

This puts Atlanta in the “Either” category. They aren’t going to blow it up, but if the right move comes along that rebalances the roster and/or cap sheet, they’ll do it. This is the same if the opportunity to make a big upgrade comes their way. Expect the Hawks to be active, as their position basically dictates they must be. Think consolidation trade for Atlanta.

Boston Celtics

Like the Hawks, the Celtics have underachieved this season. There have been a few signs that things are turning around for Boston, but the same problems of the last couple of years exist. They can’t close games and the offense remains inconsistent.

We also don’t have any deadline track record to work with, as this is Brad Stevens first go-around as the decision-maker. Dennis Schroder is known to be on the block, as the one-year marriage in green has been somewhat clunky. Juancho Hernangomez is a valuable piece of pseudo-expiring salary-matching at $7 million. And Boston has TPEs of $17 million, $9.7 million and $5.1 million to work with too.

Expect Stevens to make moves around the edges of the rotation. Any sort of big overhaul will come this summer vs at the deadline.

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are buyers without a whole lot to buy with. They have a couple of valuable TPEs of $11.5 million and $6.3 million. That’s enough to get a useful player or two. It’s sending out value to get those players that’s the challenge for Sean Marks.

Brooklyn doesn’t have a ton in terms of tradable talent. Their players are all vets with limited trade value, or young players the team would rather keep. Keep an eye on Nic Claxton and Bruce Brown. Both are due for new deals this offseason, and if Brooklyn can flip them for help to compete for the 2022 NBA Finals, they’ll do it. And forget trading draft picks. The Nets stash is basically all committed elsewhere at this point.

Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte is positioned to make a run at the playoffs. Their offense is very good, but their defense is terrible. There’s an obvious hole at center, but the team has limited resources to plug that hole.

All of the players with trade value are playing a key rotation role for the Hornets. To upgrade at the five in a meaningful way, Mitch Kupchak would need to move a productive player. Sometimes you need to give something to get something, but it’s more likely Charlotte will just stand pat.

Chicago Bulls

Chicago is having their best season in over a half-decade. Everything has come together better than anyone could have expected. The only real holes on this roster are a forward with size and bench shooting. Expect Arturas Karnisovas to be aggressive in upgrading both spots.

The main trade assets the Bulls can dangle are Patrick Williams and Coby White. Williams is out long-term, but has considerable potential. White has shown he can put up points from either guard spot. Chicago is a little pick-poor after trading for Nikola Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan, so they’ll need to find a team looking to move a veteran for rebuilding pieces. Keep an eye on both Jerami Grant and Harrison Barnes for the Bulls. They’d both be major upgrades as swing forwards.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are making a real playoff run for the first time since LeBron James left town for a second time. Cleveland’s challenge right now is health and offensive creation. Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio are down for the year and that’s put a lot of pressure on Darius Garland to make everything happen.

The Cavaliers are shopping Rubio’s expiring $17.8 million deal along with draft picks to get help. Caris LeVert is a reported target, and he’d make a lot of sense as an on-ball creator. One way or another, Koby Altman is going to upgrade the wing spot before the deadline passes.

Detroit Pistons

It’s not the “Everything must go!” attitude of the past for the Pistons, but they’re still in asset-collection mode. Jerami Grant is the object of affection for several contenders. If Detroit can return a mix of young players and picks for Grant, look for Troy Weaver to get it done.

Beyond moving Grant, look for smaller “take a flyer” moves from the Pistons, like the recent acquisition of Bol Bol. Weaver has a lot of tradable expiring or pseudo-expiring deals he can send out to bring back a young player that needs a change of scenery.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers might have borrowed the “Everything must go!” signs from their neighbors to the north. Indiana is known to be openly listening on Myles Turner and Caris LeVert leading up to the deadline. Kevin Pritchard will also take calls on Domantas Sabonis, but you better be prepared to blow him away with an offer for the All-Star big man.

At this point, it would be a surprise to see either Turner or LeVert in an Indiana uniform post-deadline. It’s likely that Sabonis, T.J. Warren (working his way back from injury) and Malcom Brogdon (ineligible to traded until after the deadline) will team with whoever comes in return for Turner and LeVert, as the Pacers do a soft reset of their roster.

Miami Heat

The Heat are a little bit like the Nets, in that they’re buyers without a lot to buy with. Miami is also hard capped, with precious little wiggle room under that barrier. It’s likely that what you see is what you get for the Heat.

One player to keep an eye on: Victor Oladipo. Not as a trade piece, but if Oladipo can get back from injury, he’ll serve as an “acquisition” of sorts. Beyond that, it’s likely Pat Riley will go shopping on the buyout market for some bench depth.

Milwaukee Bucks

Like their brethren contenders in Brooklyn and Miami, Milwaukee would like to buy, but has limited means to do so. They’d have to trade productive rotation players to put together meaningful salary-matching in any deal. That’s unlikely, given the Bucks prize their depth.

Jon Horst has done good work with finding undervalued veterans, like P.J. Tucker last year. Look for something similar, as Milwaukee could use another big for as long as Brook Lopez is sidelined.

New York Knicks

New York has slipped back after their unexpected success last season. The Knicks will be involved in trade talks, because they’re the Knicks. But to this point, Leon Rose has ushered in a new era of patience in New York. Don’t expect any splashy moves just to make a move.

Pending the health outlooks for Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker, the Knicks may look to upgrade the point guard depth. But that will probably be a minor move, or may be done on the buyout market. Any major changes to this roster seem more likely to happen in the offseason.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are positioned to have a busy trade deadline. Armed with new contract extensions, President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond can continue their rebuilding project in Orlando.

Look for the Magic to find a deal for Terrence Ross. He’s going to be in demand, as teams look to upgrade their bench depth and shooting at the deadline. Gary Harris is another player who could be moved, as his $20.5 million expiring deal can be used in a number of ways. Orlando can take on questionable salary in exchange for assets to help a team in the coming years. Some teams may even see Harris as an expiring depth player to aid in a playoff push. The last player to keep an eye on is Robin Lopez. His expiring $5 million deal is very movable and teams are always looking for cheap center help at the deadline. Orlando also has a $17.2 million TPE and is almost $23 million under the luxury tax. That makes them ideal facilitators in three-team deals.

Philadelphia 76ers

As he has been all season long, Ben Simmons remains the player to watch at the deadline. Daryl Morey has held firm in wanting a major return, despite several teams making a push to acquire Simmons. Philadelphia has all but given up hope he’ll ever play for them again, but their asking price in a Simmons deal remains high. Most expect this dance to continue up to the deadline, when the Sixers will likely come down a little, as offers improve a little on the other side.

Beyond an eventual Simmons deal, expect the 76ers to make some moves around the edges. Morey always tinkers with his roster at the deadline. He’ll likely target wing help and more shooting, as Philadelphia hopes to make a playoff run around Joel Embiid’s MVP-caliber season.

Toronto Raptors

Toronto has played better than most expected this season. It looks like the Raptors will battle for a Play-In spot at the bare minimum. There are no obvious trade candidates on the roster, but you can never count out Masai Ujiri when it comes to making a big move. If he feels there is a major upgrade to be made, Ujiri will take that homerun swing.

Pascal Siakam seems like the most likely trade candidate due to the combination of ability, salary, positional depth and age. If the Raptors can use Siakam’s $33 million salary in a deal to bring in a big or high-scoring wing, they’ll do it. Most likely, Toronto will sit pat and address their forward-heavy roster imbalance this summer.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have slipped in the standing after a great start. But the focus still seems like it’s on making a playoff run in D.C. Look for Tommy Sheppard to use some of his forward depth to shore up the wing rotation, even if that means moving on from some high picks from recent drafts.

Rui Hachimura is finally back, but the forward spot is now overflowing with players. Kyle Kuzma isn’t going anywhere and Deni Avdija isn’t either. Same for Corey Kispert, who was just drafted. If there’s a deal to be made for Davis Bertans and the $54-$65 million left on his deal, the Wizards will make it. Hachimura and Bertans seem to be the main carrots Sheppard will dangle. That’s not going to net a huge return, but if Washington can get one more wing, they’ll be in good shape for the playoff push.

The NBA calendar is full of important dates from mid-December to mid-February. On December 15, the trade window unofficially opens, as the vast majority of players signed that offseason can be traded. On January 5, teams can sign 10-Day contract. This was tweaked this season, due to so many teams having players in the health and safety protocols.

January 7 is the final day to waive a player before all contracts become fully guaranteed on January 10. And of course, mid-February (February 10 this season) features the trade deadline.

In between looms January 15. This is an important date for a couple of reasons. It’s the last day teams can apply for a disabled player exception to replace players out for the rest of the season. It’s also usually the deadline to sign players to a Two-Way Contract. This season, because of the COVID related absences, Two-Way rules have been tweaked and there will be no deadline.

Most importantly: January 15 is the final big trade restriction date for offseason signees.

Unlike the December 15 restriction, when most free agents signed in the summer can be dealt, the January 15 trade restriction only applies to players who were re-signed in the offseason. And of that group, it only applies to select individuals.

When a player is re-signed using Bird or Early Bird rights to a contract that is 20% or greater than their previous deal AND their team is over the cap, those players can’t be traded until January 15. This is because those contracts tie to Base Year Compensation rules, which impact how a BYC player’s salary works in trade. In effect, it’s an additional blocker that keeps teams from re-signing and player and immediately trading them.

Once January 15 (or three months after the player re-signed) hits, that restriction is lifted and those players can be traded. Here’s a list of players who become trade eligible on January 15:

1. Jarrett Allen – Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Bruce Brown Jr – Brooklyn Nets
3. John Collins – Atlanta Hawks
4. Terence Davis – Sacramento Kings
5. Hamidou Diallo – Detroit Pistons
6. Josh Hart – New Orleans Pelicans
7. Richaun Holmes – Sacramento Kings
8. Talen Horton-Tucker – Los Angeles Lakers
9. Reggie Jackson – LA Clippers
10. Furkan Korkmaz – Philadelphia 76ers
11. T.J. McConnell – Indiana Pacers
12. Jordan McLaughlin – Minnesota Timberwolves
13. David Nwaba – Houston Rockets
14. Duncan Robinson – Miami Heat
15. Derrick Rose – New York Knicks
16. Cameron Payne – Phoenix Suns
17. Norman Powell – Portland Trail Blazers
18. Gary Trent Jr. – Toronto Raptors
19. Jarred Vanderbilt – Minnesota Timberwolves

A handful of the players listed above have been prominently mentioned in trade rumors, including Hart, Holmes, Horton-Tucker and Powell. It’s important to keep in mind that you may hear their names mentioned in the rumor mill now, but it’s still a bit before those players can actually be moved.

Notable NBA Links

• Transactions Wire
• Team Salary Cap Tracker

As far as the calendar goes in a normal NBA season, of which 2021-22 is thankfully one, January 10 is a meaningful date for teams and players. On that date, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed for the duration of the season. In addition, any contract signed after that date (minus a 10-Day contract) is also fully guaranteed for the remainder of the season.

However, the date to really keep an eye on is January 7. Because players have to clear waivers by January 10, that turns January 7 into the date when players need to be waived by to avoid a cap hit for the full salary.

If a player is waived, the salary already paid to the player, plus the two days on waivers, is put on the team’s books as dead money. If the player is claimed off waivers, the entire salary and cap hit is transferred to the claiming team’s cap sheet.

Here are the 30 players to watch with January 10 (but really January 7!) guarantee dates:

• Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot – Atlanta Hawks
• Jabari Parker – Boston Celtics
• DeAndre Bembry – Brooklyn Nets
• Alfonzo McKinnie – Chicago Bulls
• Matt Thomas – Chicago Bulls
• Ed Davis – Cleveland Cavaliers
• Lamar Stevens – Cleveland Cavaliers
• Denzel Valentine – Cleveland Cavaliers
• Dean Wade – Cleveland Cavaliers
• Moses Brown – Dallas Mavericks
• P.J. Dozier – Denver Nuggets
• Damion Lee – Golden State Warriors
• Gary Payton II – Golden State Warriors
• Oshae Brissett – Indiana Pacers
• Kelan Martin – Indiana Pacers
• Keifer Sykes – Indiana Pacers
• Isaiah Hartenstein – LA Clippers
• Avery Bradley – Los Angeles Lakers
• Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers
• DeMarcus Cousins – Milwaukee Bucks
• Wesley Matthews – Milwaukee Bucks
• Jaylen Nowell – Minnesota Timberwolves
• Wayne Selden – New York Knicks
• Gary Clark – New Orleans Pelicans
• Gabriel Deck – Oklahoma City Thunder
• Kenrich Williams – Oklahoma City Thunder
• Paul Reed – Philadelphia 76ers
• Dennis Smith Jr. – Portland Trail Blazers
• Isaac Bonga – Toronto Raptors
• Miye Oni – Utah Jazz

Notable NBA Links

• Transactions Wire
• Team Salary Cap Tracker

There are some key buzzwords floating around the NBA right now, as the league continues to battle COVID.

The first set of words are "health and safety protocols". The protocols are the mysterious netherworld that players, coaches and staff enter when they have a positive COVID test. In reality, it’s not that mysterious. Essentially, anyone from a team who tests positive has to leave the team for a period of two to ten days. If they can return two negative tests at least 24 hours apart, the individual can exit the protocols and rejoin the team. If they don’t, they’re out for a minimum of 10 days, at which point a single negative test can free them from the protocols.

(As of this writing, the NBA and NBPA are negotiating a change that would reduce that 10-day absence to just six days for asymptomatic players who are also vaccinated.)

The second set of words are “hardship exception” and that’s become an increasingly important term for NBA teams in recent days.

Hardship exception are roster exceptions where teams are allowed to exceed the maximum of 15 standard contracts. They’ve existed for years, but up until the last two weeks, usage of a hardship exception was fairly rare. In fact, here’s the total number of hardship exceptions utilized in the past five seasons:

• 2016-17 – 7
• 2017-18 – 8
• 2018-19 – 9
• 2019-20 – 2
• 2020-21 – 9

That’s 35 total hardship exception signings over a five-year period.

As of this writing, NBA teams have used a whopping 55 hardship exceptions (53 total players have signed via hardship, with two players signing two deals) in the first two months of the 2021-22 season.

Up until this season, in order to petition the league for an additional roster spot via hardship a team had to have at least four players out for a period of three or more games, with the absences projected to continue.

In addition, in years past, before January 5 or each season, teams were in ineligible to sign players to a 10-Day contract via hardship. Teams would work around this by signing a player to a non-guaranteed contract and then waiving them when the hardship period has passed. On January 5 and beyond, the vast majority of hardship signings were accomplished via a 10-Day contract.

This year, while facing down unprecedented absences due to the health and safety protocols, the NBA and NBPA agreed to tweak both the hardship and 10-Day rules.

Now, teams can sign a player to a 10-Day contract via hardship as soon as they have a player enter the protocols. They don’t even need to petition the league for the additional roster spot.

Not only can teams sign a player to a 10-Day via hardship, but if they are below 13 available players due to health and safety protocols, teams must sign a player to a 10-Day via hardship, until they get back up to 13 available players.

The NBA and NBPA also made an additional tweak to the hardship rules to help teams. In years past, all contracts counted against the cap and tax. (The only exception here were Replacement Player contracts due to opt outs prior to the Walt Disney World bubble to complete the 2019-20 season.) With several teams already facing hefty luxury tax bills, and several others pushing closer to the hard cap line, the league and player’s association agreed that these hardship signings would not count against the cap nor tax.

There is a push from many within front offices around the NBA that hardship signings should never count towards the cap nor tax. The idea being that if you are in a hardship position, you run the risk of not being able to suit up enough players to practice or play. If you are up against, or even at, the hard cap, you would be unable to add a player in this scenario. If that situation was to occur after the trade deadline, you’d have no way to create the space necessary to sign players. It’s expected that making this change permanent will be addressed during the 2022 offseason.

10-Day hardship exception signings have resulted in the return to league of some notable veteran players like Joe Johnson and Lance Stephenson. They’ve also given an opportunity to players who may have never gotten an NBA call-up, like Hassani Gravett, who started a game for the Orlando Magic.

Get used to the hardship rules, but hopefully not too used to them. Ideally, this will go back to being a seldom-used roster exception that only happens when a team has an extraordinarily unlucky season with injuries.

Notable NBA Links

• Transactions Wire
• Team Salary Cap Tracker
• NBA Injury List

Portland caught between a rock and a hard place with Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard’s future with the Portland Trail Blazers has come into question in recent days. During the preseason, Lillard shut down speculation that he’d ask for a trade. With Portland firing basketball operations leader Neil Olshey, and the Blazers continuing to struggle, that speculation has ramped back up again.

There are reports that Lillard still doesn’t want to ask for a trade, but that he’d like Portland to make roster upgrades. This may even include acquiring Ben Simmons from the Philadelphia 76ers. But that’s stuff Lillard would like that is largely out of his control.

Where Lillard has a little more sway is that he apparently wants a contract extension. As it stands today, Lillard is under contract through 2024-25 (that season is a player option) for a total of $176.3 million. This summer, Lillard wants to add two more years to that deal for a whopping $106.5 million.

Lillard has to wait until this summer to extend, because that will get him the necessary amount of time clear from signing his current extension. Until this point, the Trail Blazers have always been happy to play ball with their franchise player. What he wants, he gets. It’s unclear if that sort of synergy will continue. And if Lillard doesn’t get the extra years tacked on, it could turn into a trade demand.

On one hand, Lillard is a superstar. Single-season salaries north of $50 million seems shocking at this point, but you have to consider the landscape. By the time those two seasons at $51.2 million and $55.3 million would kick in, the cap is projected to be well-above $130 an $140 million respectively. In short, salaries of $50 million or more per season are going to be commonplace for superstar players, so get used to it.

However, that’s where you have to look at the other side. Lillard is already a 31-year-old small guard. He’s had some lingering injury issues in recent seasons, and this year his play has slipped quite a bit. Is that just a blip, or is Lillard about to join the long list of small guards who lost it after their age-30 season?

Taking it a little further, Portland would be paying Lillard $51 million and $55 million in each of his age-35 and age-36 seasons. That’s a scary proposition. The last thing you have to factor in when thinking about a Lillard extension is tradability. There are some executives around the NBA hinting that they would have more interest in the Portland front office opening, if they knew they wouldn’t have to guarantee extending Lillard. Everyone has seen how immovable John Wall’s $91 million remaining salary has been for the Houston Rockets. No one wants to sign up for that scenario with Lillard in four years.

For some teams, having Lillard locked up for the next five to six years might increase their willingness to trade for him. That’s control over the rest of the career of a superstar player. That’s enticing to some, especially markets than can’t traditionally attract star players. Others may be willing to trade for Lillard on his current deal, wait the year necessary per the CBA and then give him his desired extension themselves.

For other teams, Lillard locked in for $282.8 million through 2026-27 is completely unpalatable. Sure, you’re likely getting All-Star level production for at least the next few years, but those last few years look scary even this far out.

Portland’s new GM is going to have their hands full right from the jump. It’s either lock into the franchise player long-term and retool the roster around him. Or it’s trade away a beloved son from a small market and hope you get the ensuing rebuild correct. Talk about being caught between a rock and a hard place.

Related:
Trade Damian Lillard
Manage Portland's Roster