NFL Trade Deadline Candidates

Michael GinnittiOctober 30, 2022

QUARTERBACKS

Mason Rudolph (PIT, 27)

Deadline Salary: $1.6M

The 27-year old is in the final year of a 2-year contract in Pittsburgh, and has been relegated to QB3 duties. The Steelers would take on a $2.44M dead cap hit here.

Jameis Winston (NO, 28)

Deadline Salary: $666,666

Winston appears to have lost his footing on the QB1 job in New Orleans (for a minute). With $5.8M of his 2023 salary guaranteed for injury, there’s a bit of risk in putting him out there right now, but another franchise could think differently. The Saints would take on dead cap hits $3.3M in 2022, and another $11.2M in 2023.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Alvin Kamara (NO, 27)

Deadline Salary: $575,000

Kamara’s been a late addition to the trade rumor hot stove with contenders looking to pounce on the versatile weapon. His contract contains 3 years, $47.8M after 2022, and $5M of his 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed - but a potential looming suspension would void those guarantees immediately. A deadline trade means $5.55M of dead cap in 2022, and another $14.3M in 2023 for New Orleans.

Kareem Hunt (CLE, 27)

Deadline Salary: $2.75M

Hunt requested a contract/trade before the season started, but the Browns wouldn’t bite on either. He’s a little more expensive than most backs at this deadline thanks to $200,000 in per game roster bonuses, but he’s also one of the more proven weapons on the block. Acquiring teams could just opt to guarantee those per game bonuses, and convert the remaining salary into signing bonus, using void years to greatly decrease the 2022 cap hit.

Josh Jacobs (LV, 24)

Deadline Salary: $1.1M

The Raiders declined Jacobs’ $8M 5th-year option for 2023, so he’s operating on a pretty friendly expiring salary here. He’s been a huge part of the Las Vegas offense, so as long as they believe they’re in the playoff hunt, shopping Jacobs is likely off of the table. But with $1.1M to be acquired at the deadline, it’s easy to imagine there’s a suitor or two out there.

Melvin Gordon (DEN, 29)

Deadline Salary: $1.32M

Gordon is posting a career-low 3.5 yards per attempt right now for a stagnant Broncos’ offense, and is scheduled for free agency after the 2022 season. A loss in London could mean a firesale for Denver before the 11/1 deadline.

Cam Akers (LAR, 23)

Deadline Salary: $650k

Akers fell out of favor with the Rams about as quickly as any player has. His rookie contract has a year and a half remaining on it, but none of it is guaranteed. He's a $650k rental at the deadline if someone is willing to bite, leaving behind dead cap hits of $1.03M in 2022, and another $512k in 2023.

Antonio Gibson (WSH, 24)

Deadline Salary: $588,011

With Brian Robinson back in the fold, Gibson’s role is certain to be reduced. His rookie contract runs non-guaranteed through 2023, so teams could be gaining a year and a half of decent value with a deadline move. Washington would take on dead cap hits of $757,252 in 2022 & $286,843 in 2023.

Jeff Wilson (SF, 26)

Deadline Salary: $575,000

McCaffrey’s arrival immediately had teams calling the Niners about Wilson, who are certainly listening. He comes with a minimum salary on an expiring contract for the next 10 weeks, so there’s real bang for buck potential here. San Francisco would retain a $510,000 dead hit per this move.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Brandin Cooks (HOU, 29)

Deadline Salary: $914,081

Cooks signed a 2 year extension with Houston this past April, but the Texans appear poised to sell anyone for parts right now (as they should be). He’s relatively cost-controlled for the remainder of 2022, but a fully guaranteed $18M salary for 2023 likely has some teams staying away - barring a restructure.

Kendrick Bourne (NE, 27)

Deadline Salary: $3.09M

Bourne is one of the more expensive players being rumored at the deadline, at least for the remainder of 2022. His contract contains a non-guaranteed $5.5M salary in 2023, so there’s a chance this can be more than just a rental for an acquiring team. The Patriots would take on dead cap hits of $3.28M in 2022, and another $1.4M in 2023.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN, 23)

Deadline Salary: $1.1M

Jeudy hasn’t lived up to this #15 overall selection to date, and the Broncos could be one of the more aggressive teams at this deadline from a selling stance. Jeudy’s contract carries fully guaranteed salaries of $1.1M to finish 2022 & $2.6M through 2023, with a 5th-year option available for 2024.

Elijah Moore (NYJ, 22)

Deadline Salary: $592,435

Moore’s request to be shipped out of NY has been denied by the Jets (thus far), but deadlines spur actions and teams are likely still calling. Moore’s remaining contract stands at 2 ½ years, $3.94M, with $1.6M of that fully guaranteed.

Chase Claypool (PIT, 24)

Deadline Salary: $673,000

Claypool still hasn’t found footing in Pittsburgh, despite 4 quarterbacks attempting to gel with him. None of the $673,000 remaining in 2022 or the $1.5M slated for 2023 are guaranteed, so a late round draft pick might make sense for a team looking to bulk up depth in their WR room with little risk. The Steelers would take on dead hits of $1.1M in 2022, and $593k in 2023.

Marquez Callaway (NO, 24)

Deadine Salary: $497,222

The Saints can’t stop adding players to the trade block, and Callaway might be the best “value” of them all. He’s eligible for restricted free agency after 2022, keeping him cost-controlled for a year and a half.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Mike Gesicki (MIA, 27)

Deadline Salary: $6M

Gesicki went from arguably the Dolphins’ best pass catching threat the past few years, to almost non-existent in 2022. While the price is a bit hefty for a deadline move, a big name injury in the next few weeks can spur some action (Dallas comes to mind early on). It’s a 1 year, fully guaranteed $6M deal at the deadline.

Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN, 24)

Deadline Salary: $497,222

He’s played only 25% of the Broncos’ snaps to date, and appears certain to be on the move in the coming days. The acquiring team takes on a less than $500k salary for the remainder of 2022, and a $1.01M option for 2023 - none of it guaranteed. Denver will retain dead cap hits of $585,038 in 2022, $187k in 2023,

 

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

Isaiah Wynn (NE, OT, 25)

Deadline Salary: $5.785M

The former #23 overall pick has been in and out of favor with the Patriots, but it appears he’s not long for this roster one way or another. His 5th-year option salary makes him somewhat expensive for a deadline move, but it only takes one team.

 

DEFENDERS

Bradley Chubb (DEN, LB, 26)

Deadline Salary: $7.06M

Chubb seems to be the big fish on the market this weekend, as contenders identify him as the “Von Miller” of the class. There aren’t many teams with $7M+ of cap space out of the gate, so Denver might be eating quite a bit of this remaining salary in order to buy a better draft package. 

Josh Allen (JAX, LB, 25)

Deadline Salary: $1.9M

Jacksonville hasn’t made it clear that Allen is available, but that’s not stopping teams from calling. The contract carries a fully guaranteed $1.9M through 2022, then a fully guaranteed $11.5M 5th-year option in 2023, so this is more than just a rental move.

Brian Burns (CAR, DE, 24)

Deadline Salary: $1.3M

Carolina claims that Burns is still off limits - but a couple of first round picks can change that tune quickly. He’s fully guaranteed at $1.3M through 2022, with a fully guaranteed $16M 5th-year option in 2023.

William Jackson (WSH, CB, 30)

Deadline Salary: $3.17M

Jackson and the Commanders have been at odds most of the season, so they’ll be thrilled to find a partner in the next few days. $2.7M of the remaining salary for 2022 is fully guaranteed, but none of the $12.75M scheduled for next season is.

Roquan Smith (CHI, ILB, 25)

Deadline Salary: $5.4M

The Bears and Smith agreed to “live with each other” after offseason trade demands went nowhere. Chicago should be looking for as many draft picks as possible down the stretch these days, so adding Smith and his expiring contract back to the trade block (amongst others) makes the most sense. They’ll take on $4.3M of 2022 dead cap to ship him out at the deadline.

Sidney Jones (SEA, CB,  26)

Deadline Salary: $1.26M

Jones has been relegated to a depth role in Seattle, and could garner the Seahawks another draft asset this weekend. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent next March.

Sean Bunting (TB, CB, 25)

Deadline Salary: $1.4M

Bunting is on an expiring contract, scheduled for unrestricted free agency in a few months. His deadline salary is a little pricier than some teams will be willing to spend for depth, but he sees a likely move regardless. The Bucs will take on a $1.9M dead cap hit per this trade.

The Struggles of Recently Extended Quarterbacks

Michael GinnittiOctober 28, 2022

8 veteran quarterbacks were handed contract extensions prior to the 2022 regular season. All 8 of those quarterbacks are currently underproducing per their career standards. Our dive into the numbers

Aaron Rodgers

Signed a 3 year, $150.8M extension to remain with the Packers this past March. Rodgers & the Packers are off to a 3-4 start, with a tough Buffalo matchup waiting for them this weekend.

Rodgers is posting 6 year lows in many of the passing categories to start the year, including 228 yards per game, a 94.3 rating, 6 fumbles, and a 26 touchdown pace. A damaged throwing hand thumb can certainly be factored in, but this is an offense with very little cohesion right now.

Contractually the two sides will have to be 100% committed to each other at the end of the season in order to proceed as is. A $58.3M option bonus is set to hit the books 5 days into the 2023 waiver period, setting up a boatload of dead cap for the Packers no matter how this thing ends. The same can be said in 2024, when a $47M option bonus will kick in.

 

Matthew Stafford

Stafford was rewarded by the Rams for his Super Bowl winning 2021 campaign with a 4 year, $160M extension, including $61.5M cash in 2022. LA finds themselves 3-3 heading into November, a game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West.

Statistically, Stafford is completing a career-best 71% of his passes, but the yardage is down, the TDs are down, the interceptions are up, the fumbles are up, and passer rating (84.6) is miserably down. Like the Packers, LA doesn’t appear to have enough horses in the barn to run a successful offense currently.

Contractually, Stafford is fully guaranteed through 2023, and 2024 fully guarantees next March. Then $10M of 2025 guarantees March of 2024. So for all intents and purposes, there’s at least $70M more to be squeezed out of this contract - for better or worse.

 

Russell Wilson

The mystery of Russell Wilson’s lost production isn’t being solved any time soon. The last place 2-5 Broncos look about as disjointed as an offense can.

Wilson is completing 58% of his passes. He has 5 passing TDs in 6 games. His 83.3 Passer Rating puts him just behind Davis Mills. And he’s on pace to rush for just 240 yards on the ground, a facet of his game that appears to have vanished for good. 

Contractually, he should be heading toward a non-guaranteed $27M salary on an expiring contract - if not for the $161M guaranteed extension he was blindly handed this past September. Wilson is fully guaranteed through the 2024 season right now, and his 2025 salary locks in when March 2024 rolls around. There are no per game bonuses, no workout bonuses, no early roster bonuses that can be restructured or converted. It’s just guaranteed salary for 3 ½ more years.

 

Derek Carr

Carr was heading into an expiring contract year before the Raiders extended him out 3 years, $121.5M. The new deal carries $65.2M of potential guarantees - but only $25M at signing (his 2022 compensation.

Statistically, Carr’s resume isn’t as daunting as some of the other names on this list, but he’s certainly on pace to finish with lower numbers than last year across the board. His current 91.3 Passer Rating is his lowest number since 2017, as is his 63.5% completion rate.

This is a contract to watch in the coming months, as it truly can be a 1 year, $25M deal in its simplest form. If he’s healthy, the Raiders can release Carr before February 15th, owing him no additional salary, while taking on a measly $5.6M dead cap hit ($29.2M saved). After this date, his $33M salary for 2023, + $7.5M of 2024 compensation becomes fully guaranteed. All $40M of this is currently guaranteed for injury right now.

 

Kyler Murray

Despite completing 65% of his passes, Murray is down about 30 passing yards per game, and his 83.7 Passer Rating is almost 17 points lower than his 2021 finish.

The timing and structure of this contract have been well documented (especially from us), but it’s worth saying it again, as the Cardinals find themselves 3-4 and in the NFC West basement. Murray’s going to earn $219M through 2027, from someone. He possesses one of the strongest contract structures in the history of the NFL.

 

Deshaun Watson

Statistically speaking - nope.

Contractually, Watson has already cashed in $44.965M this year. When he returns to the Browns, he’ll pocket another $402,500 for the remainder of the 2022 campaign. Then it’s $46M x 4 years, fully guaranteed from here out: $184M

 

Kirk Cousins

Don’t forget about Kirk. The Vikings tacked on $35M guaranteed to Cousins’ previous contract for salary cap (and football) purposes. He’s basically posted numbers that align with his career, however the efficiency is down - a path we’re seeing with all of these listed quarterbacks.

Cousins’ passer rating currently sits at 88.7, 14 points less than last season. He’s on pace for 14 INTs after throwing only 7 in 2021.

Contractually, Kirk is inline for another $30M (guaranteed) in 2023, and currently holds a fairly tenable $36.25M cap hit next season.

 

Tom Brady

After he unretired, the Buccaneers freed up $8.3M of much needed cap space by restructuring Brady’s previous contract. The maneuver increased Brady’s cash from $12.2M up to $30M, the 2nd largest single season payout in his career.

Through 8 games, Brady’s numbers aren’t awful. They’re just not translating into TDs at near the rate he’s used to producing at. In fact, of the 7 QBs listed here, Brady’s 92.37 passer rating is by far the best. His 283 yards per game is by far the best. But the 19 TD passes he’s on pace for is eerily low.

Contractually, this is still a 1 year deal for Brady, as the Bucs utilized void years to spread the cap out in their favor. If (when) he walks away after 2022, Tampa Bay will have $35.1M of dead cap to deal with in 2023.

tom brady kirk cousins aaron rodgers deshaun watson jerry tillery derek carr russell wilson matthew stafford

MLB Financial Offseason Series: AL West

Michael GinnittiOctober 27, 2022
Breaking down the upcoming offseason for each 2023 MLB franchise, broken down by division, including projected payrolls, guaranteed contract, notable free agents, potential extension candidates, & trade/non-tender options. Astros, Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Athletics

Related Offseason Division Pieces

Houston Astros

Guaranteed Contracts: 6 (13th)

Current Tax Payroll: $148.4M (6th)

Projected Arbitration: $30.4M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $6.3M

Projected Tax Payroll: $185.2M (7th)

Projected Tax Space: $48M (24th)

Notable Options: Justin Verlander (SP, $25M player), Will Smith (RP, $13M club), Trey Mancini (1B, $10M mutual)

Notable Free Agents: Christian Vazquez (C, 32), Michael Brantley (OF, 35), Rafael Montero (RP, 32), FULL LIST

Despite a few changes to the starting lineup, the 2022 Astros might be the best version we've seen to date. They rolled through the regular season and much of the postseason with relative ease, but they'll face a few difficult financial roadblocks once the winter months arrive.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Kyle Tucker (OF, 26)

Tucker is slated for his first go round in arbitration this winter, which projects to pay him $6M in 2023. With back to back 30 home run, 5+ WAR seasons under his belt, the Astros should be thinking much bigger though. Houston recently bought out all three years of arbitration + 3 years of free agency for slugger Yordan Alvarez at just under $20M per year. Will they match that for Tucker this offseason? He’s a $30M per year player in our system mathematically speaking.

Jeremy Pena (SS, 25)

To say that Pena’s rookie campaign was a success would be a monumental understatement. The 25-year-old posted 20 doubles, 22 homers, 63 RBIs, and stole 11 bags in his first year taking the reins from Carlos Correa. Wander Franco’s 11 year, $182M contract might be overkill for Houston, especially as Pena is already 4 years older than Franco was at the time of his deal, but a modified version of this framework probably makes sense.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Jose Urquidy (SP, 28)

The Astros are flush with talented starting pitching, and assuming Justin Verlander remains in the mix next season, can flip at least one arm for more bullpen/lineup depth. Urquidy seems the most likely candidate both for value and for what Houston can internally replace him with (Javier, Whitley). The 28-year-old is headed for his first arbitration offseason, set to earn around $3.6M.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Phil Maton (RP, 30)

Maton will be entering his third and final year of arbitration in 2023, scheduled to make around $3.6M. With limited action down the stretch, it’s hard to imagine the Astros stick at that number.

Seattle Mariners

Guaranteed Contracts: 10 (3rd)

Current Tax Payroll: $130.4M (11th)

Projected Arbitration: $27.3M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $2.3M

Projected Tax Payroll: $160.1M (13th)

Projected Tax Space: $73M (18th)

Notable Options: None.

Notable Free Agents: Curt Casali (C, 33), Mitch Haniger (OF, 31), Carlos Santana (1B, 36), FULL LIST

The Mariners have slowly building themselves back into contention, and with 90 wins and a playoff series win under their belts, it's safe to say that time has arrived. GM Jerry Dipoto likely can't wait to get his hands on this offseason, be it another blockbuster trade, or a few splashy free agent signings to help take this roster to the next level.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Logan Gilbert (SP, 25)

Gilbert backed up a solid rookie campaign in 2021, with a breakout season in 2022 (3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 174 strikeouts). He moved himself ahead of Robbie Ray in the rotation, working neck and neck with newcomer Luis Castillo as one of the most reliable arms on the roster. The 25 year old projects to a $24M per year extension right now in our system. But with 5 more years of team control ahead of him, that number should be negotiated down into the teens as many of these pre-arbitration extensions have been seen to do.

Cal Raleigh (C, 26)

Breakout rookie season is an understatement. Raleigh posted 20 doubles, 27 homers, & 63 RBIs in just 100 starts this season. He’ll be one of the core pieces of this team going forward, and is a strong candidate for a pre-arb extension, despite 5 years of team control ahead of him.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Jesse Winker (OF, 29)

Winker was a viable middle of the lineup bat for the Reds in 2021, but things fell off a cliff this past year in Seattle. The Mariners are in contention, so paying down this contract to open up the roster spot and bring back some sort of depth asset should be a priority. His contract holds 1 year, $8.25M remaining through 2023.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Luke Weaver (RP, 29, $3.6M)

Weaver is out of minor options and projects to a $3.6M salary for his final year of arbitration. Seattle’s push forward will definitely include an upgrade to their bullpen this offseason.

Luis Torrens (C, 27, $1.2M)

Torrens is out of minor options and due to limited action in 2022, projects to repeat his $1.2M salary from last year. He won’t be too expensive to keep, but with Cal Raleigh having officially arrived (and then some), and if veteran Tom Murphy can return to full health, that’s probably enough reason to move on here.

Los Angeles Angels

Guaranteed Contracts: 7 (6th)

Current Tax Payroll: $147.4M (8th)

Projected Arbitration: $14.3M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $8.7M

Projected Tax Payroll: $170.6M (10th)

Projected Tax Space: $63M (21st)

Notable Options: None.

Notable Free Agents: Michael Lorenzen (SP, 30), Matt Duffy (3B, 31), Mike Ford (1B, 30), FULL LIST

Another year, another postseason missed for this top-heavy constructed Angels roster. With the Astros as good as ever, and the Mariners threatening to be relevant for the unforseeable future, will Los Angeles finally call uncle and sell a major piece or two? With new ownership on the horizon, everything should be on the table at this point.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

None, though OF Taylor Ward is an intriguing name already.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Shohei Ohtani (OF/SP, 28)

It’s been largely speculated that the 1 year, $30M salary Ohtani agreed to to bypass his final year of arbitration locks him into the Angels’ 2023 lineup. But we’re finally hearing frustration from the superhuman regarding the lack of winning during his 5 year tenure in LA. Will the two sides let 2023 play out, then let free agency handle the rest, or will Ohtani be the latest superstar heading into the final year of arbitration to be moved (Lindor, Betts, Turner). This is an extremely fluid situation.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Chad Wallach (C, 31, $1M)

Wallach is out of roster spots and it seems likely that Logan O'Hoppe and Max Stassi carry the load in 2023. This could just flatout be a rip it up and start over position for LAA as well.

Texas Rangers

Guaranteed Contracts: 4 (20th)

Current Tax Payroll: $97M (18th)

Projected Arbitration: $10.1M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $10.3M

Projected Tax Payroll: $117M (20th)

Projected Tax Space: $116M (11th)

Notable Options: Jose Leclerc (RP, $6M club), Kole Calhoun (OF, $5.5M club)

Notable Free Agents: Martin Perez (SP, 31), Matt Moore (P, 33), Charlie Culberson (3B, 33), FULL LIST

To say that a 4th place division finish for a team that handed out $600M worth of contracts last offseason is disappointing would be an understatement. With Bruce Bochy now at the helm, things are about to get serious in Texas, and the gas pedal appears to be still pressed down as we head into a winter loaded with elite - expensive - talent.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Adolis Garcia (OF, 29)

Acquired from the Cardinals back in late 2019, all Garcia has done for Texas is mash 60 doubles, 68 home runs, & 191 RBIs across 300 games. He’s a fixture in the outfield now, and his 4 years of team control put the Rangers in the driver’s seat. He’s a strong candidate for a pre-arbitration extension this offseason, or a very attractive trade asset if finding immediate MLB ready pitching is the top priority.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Leodys Taveras (OF, 24)

Taveras doesn’t offer much at the plate, though he did hit a career best .261 in 2022, but he’s a prototypical great defensive outfielder who can fly around the bases type player. Teams will be in seek of these athletes with the new rule changes going into effect, and the Rangers may be able to pull back an asset for him this winter.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Brett Martin (RP, 27, $1.75M)

The Rangers offered three left handers out of the bullpen this year, with Martin being the least utilized of the group. There’s a chance his $1.75M projected arbitration salary is tradeable, but with payroll adding up quickly in Texas, an outright non-tender is also on the table here.

Oakland Athletics

Guaranteed Contracts: 0 (30th)

Current Tax Payroll: $20.4M (30th)

Projected Arbitration: $14.8M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $15.9M

Projected Tax Payroll: $51M (30th)

Projected Tax Space: $182M (1st)

Notable Options: None.

Notable Free Agents: Luis Barrera (OF, 26), Adam Kolarek (RP, 33), Chad Pinder (OF, 30), FULL LIST

The fire sale started early, continued at the deadline, and will likely finish this winter when Sean Murphy (C) is moved elsewhere. At the time of this piece, Oakland had zero guaranteed contracts on its payroll. The current 40-man roster contains 6 arbitration eligible players, with the rest set for pre-arbitration (near minimum) salaries for 2023. It's a veritable rock bottom right now in Oakland.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

None. Why ruin a good thing like zero multi-year contracts on your payroll?

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Sean Murphy (C, 28)

Murphy’s name has been attached to trades for months now, and with seemingly every other veteran player having been moved off the roster in one way or another - Murphy is somewhat of a last man standing. A projected $3.3M arbitration salary for 2023 isn’t daunting (even for the A’s), but with two of their top prospects (Shea Langeliers , & Tyler Soderstrom) nearly ready to take the reins, pulling in a haul for Murphy this winter is just another piece to the quick rebuild puzzle. Contractually, Murphy is arbitration eligible through 2025.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Tony Kemp (2B, 31, $3.2M)

Kemp actually posted one of his better overall seasons in 2022, and holds a combined WAR near 5 over the past two campaigns. His projected $3.2M salary for next year isn’t outrageous, but the A’s don’t seem to be up-paying anyone right now.

houston astros california angels oakland athletics seattle mariners texas rangers

Chiefs Acquire WR Kadarius Toney

Michael GinnittiOctober 27, 2022

Since drafted #20 overall back in 2021, Kadarius Toney has seen action in just 12 games, including only 2 thus far in 2022. The Chiefs will now take on this project in return for a 2023 3rd round compensatory draft pick, and a 2023 6th round pick.

 

The Traded Contract

Toney brings with him a 2 ½ year, $5.22M fully guaranteed contract to Kansas City, including a 5th year option for the 2025 season.

2022: $784,431 (guaranteed)
2023: $1,907,228 (guaranteed)
2024: $2,530,842 (guaranteed)
2025: 5th-year option available

 

The Dead Cap & Savings

The Giants free up minimal cap space in each of the next 3 seasons with this move, but they take $5.2M cash off of their books, and acquire two picks, one with a chance to be extremely helpful next April.

Dead Cap
2022: $2,333,639 ($499,183 cash)
2023: $3,668,912

Cap Savings
2022: $784,431
2023: $72,772
2024: $4,365,298

 

In Conclusion

The Chiefs are operating with quantity in their offense right now, and Toney not only adds to that - but has a chance to become the featured quality option over the next few seasons. He’ll certainly have the right quarterback throwing him passes from here out.



kadarius toney kansas city chiefs new york giants

Eagles Acquire DE Robert Quinn

Michael GinnittiOctober 27, 2022

Robert Quinn requested a trade away from the Bears this past offseason. On Wednesday, Chicago finally granted his wish, shipping the 32 year old pass rusher to the 1st Place Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for retained salary, and a 2023 4th round draft pick.

 

The Traded Contract

Philadelphia picks up a 3 year, $27.7M contract per this deal, but only the $684,444 comes with any type of guarantee.

2022: $684,444 (guaranteed)
2023: $14M (non-guaranteed)
2024: $13M (non-guaranteed)

Update: The Eagles have agreed to remove the final two years of the contract per the terms of the trade. Quinn will now be eligible for free agency after the 2022 season.

 

The Dead Cap & Savings

The Bears paid a price to gain a halfway decent (4th round) draft pick out of this transaction. Chicago agreed to retain $7.1M of the remaining $7.82M in 2022 salary still due to Quinn. So in total:

Dead Cap
2022: $16,453,055 ($12.215M cash)
2023: $8,475,000

Cap Savings
2022: $684,444
2023: $9,762,500
2024: $17,237,500

 

In Conclusion

The Bears accomplished 3 things here: They moved on from a player who openly did want to remain with the organization. They acquired a mid round draft pick that gives them a chance at plugging an immediate hole next year, and they opened up $10M of cap space across this and next season to further help in their rebuilding process.

If they achieved all of that for an additional $7.1M, who am I to say that it wasn’t money well spent (yet).

robert quinn

MLB Financial Offseason Series: AL Central

Michael GinnittiOctober 27, 2022
Breaking down the upcoming offseason for each 2023 MLB franchise, broken down by division, including projected payrolls, guaranteed contract, notable free agents, potential extension candidates, & trade/non-tender options. Guardians, White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Royals

Related Offseason Division Pieces

Cleveland Guardians

Guaranteed Contracts: 3 (23rd)

Current Tax Payroll: $49.5M (27th)

Projected Arbitration: $38.1M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $10.3M

Projected Tax Payroll: $98M (25th)

Projected Tax Space: $135M (6th)

Notable Options: Bryan Shaw (RP, $4M club)

Notable Free Agents: Austin Hedges (C)

The Guardians used a big second half to chase down and easily surpass the rest of the AL Central field, finishing with 92 wins, 22 games over .500 and 11 games ahead of the 2nd place White Sox. They hold an incredible amount of team control down their 40-man roster this offseason.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Andres Gimenez (SS, 24)

Acquired from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor trade, Gimenez has established himself both defensively and at the plate - where he’s added power to his game of late. He seems to possess all of the tools to be an everyday middle infielder for the next 10 years. Can the Guardians get him to take a small market pre-arbitration extension? He posted an eye-popping 7.25 WAR in 2022, 4th in MLB.

Steven Kwan (OF, 25)

It was quite a rookie campaign, as Kwan posted 168 hits, 25 doubles, and a .298/.373/.400/.733 slash line for Cleveland. The Guardians are notorious for jumping early on contracts for these types of players, but with Myles Straw already locked in (questionably), is another $25M+ contract for a non-power-hitting player good business? 

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Amed Rosario (SS, 27)

Rosario holds 1 more year of arbitration, projected to earn around $9M for the 2023 season before hitting the open market. Over the past two seasons, he’s averaged 25 doubles, 7 triples, 11 homers,  64 RBIs & 15 stolen bases for the Guardians. He’s a versatile fielder, and will enter his final year of arbitration at 27 years old. With youngster Andres Gimenez able to slide over to his more normal SS position, flipping Rosario for more depth would be a very Cleveland-like move.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Luke Maile (C, 32)

A late bloomer, Maile is arbitration eligible for the 4th and final time next season, projected to earn around $1M for the upcoming season. With youngsters Bo Naylor & Bryan Lavastida vying to crack the opening day roster, one of Cleveland’s top priorities this offseason will be to bring in a low rent veteran catcher as a complementary piece. Oakland’s Sean Murphy is a popular thought here.

Chicago White Sox

Guaranteed Contracts: 11 (2nd)

Current Tax Payroll: $144M (9th)

Projected Arbitration: $24.3M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $3.1M

Projected Tax Payroll: $171M (8th)

Projected Tax Space: $62M (23rd)

Notable Options: A.J. Pollock (OF, $13M player), Tim Anderson (SS, $12.5M club), Josh Harrison (2B, $5.625M club)

Notable Free Agents: Jose Abreu (1B, 35), Johnny Cueto (SP, 36), Elvis Andrus (SS, 34), FULL LIST

The 81-81 White Sox have to be considered a disappointment, as the entered the 2022 season as clear division favorites. Chicago has spent the past few offseasons locking up their young core, and slowly adding veteran pieces to ramp up back into contention. Will 2023 be the winter they find the correct pieces to the puzzle, or is it time for subtraction before more addition?

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Dylan Cease (SP, 27)

Cease is eligible for a first time through arbitration this winter, scheduled to earn around $5M in 2023. The 27-year-old posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 227 strikeouts across 32 starts last year, further supplanting his place at the top of this rotation. He’s already a $25M player in our system, but with 3 years of control baked in, could Lance McCullers’ 5 year, $85M deal in Houston offer a better framework?

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Lucas Giolito (SP, 28)

This one just never seemed to hit. The former #16 overall pick back in 2012 was given plenty of chances to earn a top of the rotation roster spot, but it seems he’s destined to be a #3 or #4 from here out. His final year of arbitration projects to come with an $11M salary, so if Chicago is looking to shed a little payroll, finding a change of scenery for Giolito could be on the list.

Yoan Moncada (3B, 28)

After a scorching 2019 campaign, Moncada has really fallen back down to earth across the past 3 seasons. With 2 years, $42.6M remaining on this deal, finding a trade partner won’t be easy, but it only takes one team to think they can “fix” a player to get the wheels in motion.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Adam Engel (OF, 30)

Engel is out of minors options and slated for a $2.3M salary in his final arbitration year.

Kyle Crick (RP, 29)

Crick is out of options and doesn’t currently project to hold a consistent spot in the bullpen next season. He’s projected to earn around $1.6M in his final year of arbitration.

Minnesota Twins

Guaranteed Contracts: 4 (21st)

Current Tax Payroll: $87M (19th)

Projected Arbitration: $37.4M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $5.5M

Projected Tax Payroll: $130M (19th)

Projected Tax Space: $103M (12th)

Notable Options: Carlos Correa (SS, $35.1M player), Miguel Sano (3B, $14.25M club), Sonny Gray (SP, $12.7M club), FULL LIST

Notable Free Agents: Gary Sanchez (C, 29), Michael Fulmer (P, 29), Daniel Coulombe (P, 33), FULL LIST

Minnesota posted their second straight losing season, and completely collapsed in September down the stretch. The Twins moved on from 3 notable players prior to 2022, and they seem poised to do much of the same again this winter.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Luis Arraez (1B, 26)

Arraez spoiled Aaron Judge’s triple crown dreams by stealing the batting title in 2022, but he doesn’t possess the power numbers to be anywhere near that type of player. He did however post 173 hits in 144 games, including 31 doubles and a 4.09 WAR. Arraez currently projects to a 5 year, $58M extension in our system, a deal that would buy out his final 3 years of arbitration, plus two years of free agency.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Max Kepler (OF, 30)

With 1 year, $8.5M + a $10M option ($1M buyout) remaining on his contract, finding a team for Kepler, despite a career low 2022 campaign, shouldn’t be too unreasonable.

Giovanny Urshela (SS, 31)

Acquired from the Yankees in the deal that sent Josh Donaldson to the Bronx, Ursehla posted a strong overall 2022 campaign, and is worthy of sticking around another year. But if the Twins want to hand the keys over to Jose Miranda, while also shedding a little payroll in order to ramp up for their next big shortstop move, Urshela holds value. The 31-year-old projects toward a $9M salary for the final year of his arbitration.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Emilio Pagan (RP, 31, $4M)

Pagan appeared in 59 games for the Twins but posted a career worst 1.3 WHIP, -0.54 WAR for his efforts. Minnesota will try to trade the veteran reliever this winter, but moving on from the $4M projected salary in some capacity seems a given here.

Detroit Tigers

Guaranteed Contracts: 5 (17th)

Current Tax Payroll: $104M (16th)

Projected Arbitration: $23.6M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $8.7M

Projected Tax Payroll: $136M (18th)

Projected Tax Space: $97M (13th)

Notable Options: Andrew Chafin (RP, $7M player)

Notable Free Agents: Drew Hutchison (P, 32), Tucker Barnhart (C, 31), Daniel Norris (P, 29)

The Tigers' expensive offseason didn't translate to wins on the field, as Detroit finished 2022 30 games under .500, 4th in the AL Central. They begin 2023 with a $100M+ tax payroll for the first time in a long time, and with a new front office now intact, could pump the brakes on things financially for a year.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Eric Haase (C, 30)

Haase can probably be considered the lone standout in what was just a bag of bad luck, bad performances, and bad decision making for the Tigers in 2022. Is it likely Detroit locks in a 30 year old catcher with 4 years of team control still ahead of him? Nope. But if anyone stands a chance this winter - it’s Haase.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Jose Cisnero (RP, 33)

Cisnero is set to earn around $2.25M in his final year of arbitration, and was one of the more consistent Tigers’ in 2022. If the game plan for Detroit is to subtract a little bit before considering to add again, this is a candidate.

Joe Jimenez (RP, 28)

Jimenez enters the final year of his team control with a $2.6M projected salary. He’s shown an ability to close games, act in a setup role, and remain durable and available for 4 straight seasons.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Jeimer Candelario (3B, 28, $6.8M)

There’s no question Detroit would like to move away from a near $7M projected salary next season, but do they have a viable replacement at 3rd base?

Victor Reyes (OF, 28, $1.7M)

The Tigers are set to debut an outfield filled with current/former top prospects, so depth players like Reyes are probably on the bubble.

Harold Castro (3B, 28, $1.25M)

Castro showed a tad more power this year than in previous seasons, but the 3B position in Detroit as a whole is a bit of a mess. 

Kansas City Royals

Guaranteed Contracts: 3 (23rd)

Current Tax Payroll: $51.6M (25th)

Projected Arbitration: $27.2M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $11.1M

Projected Tax Payroll: $90M (26th)

Projected Tax Space: $143M (5th)

Notable Options: None

Notable Free Agents: Zack Greinke (SP, 39), Daniel Mengden (P, 29), Arodys Vizcaino (RP, 31)

As expected the Royals brought up the rear in the AL Central, finishing 2022 32 games under .500, and 27 games back from Cleveland. Their -170 run differential was 4th worst in MLB. They turn the page to 2022 with just 3 guaranteed contracts on their books, and quite a few question marks.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Brady Singer (SP, 26)

Singer is headed to arbitration for the first time this winter, and he was one of the brighter takeaways from KC’s 2022 campaign. The former 1st round pick posted a 3.23 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts in 153 innings, compiling a team-high 4.46 WAR for his efforts. If the Royals are going to start climbing back up this division, they’ll need pitching to do so. Singer projects to a 5 year, $77M extension in our system this winter.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Salvador Perez (C, 33)

He’s still as valuable both at the plate and behind it as ever, but the Royals are in the middle of yet another massive roster re-tooling. With 3 years, $62M left on Perez’s contract, is that money better spent elsewhere from KC’s point of view, or is it money better earned on a winning franchise from the player’s outlook?

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Adalberto Mondesi (SS, 27, $3M)

Let me start by saying that this isn’t a highly likely move, but it’s at least to be considered. While availability has been a massive problem here, a projected $3M salary for 2023 shouldn’t be daunting enough to seal his departure. With Bobby Witt Jr. able to play anywhere on the left side of the infield, and Nicky Lopez a better option for a defensive utility man, Mondesi’s role on this team may simply be too small to keep around.

chicago white sox cleveland indians detroit tigers kansas city royals minnesota twins

MLB Financial Offseason Series: AL East

Michael GinnittiOctober 26, 2022
Breaking down the upcoming offseason for each 2023 MLB franchise, broken down by division, including projected payrolls, guaranteed contract, notable free agents, potential extension candidates, & trade/non-tender options. Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles, Red Sox

Related Offseason Division Pieces

New York Yankees

Guaranteed Contracts: 6

Current Tax Payroll: $149M

Projected Arbitration: $42.5M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $3.2M

Projected Tax Payroll: $195.3M

Projected Tax Space: $37.7M

Notable Options: Anthony Rizzo (1B, $16M player), Luis Severino (SP, $15M club), FULL LIST

Notable Free Agents: Aaron Judge, Andrew Benintendi, Jameson Taillon, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, FULL LIST

The Yankees won 99 regular season games, and finished with a +240 run differential to win the AL East by 7 games. An ALCS sweep loss to the Astros leaves the fanbase with a sour taste in their mouths, but there's plenty of reason to think this NY team can sustain their winning ways again in 2023 - assuming Aaron Judge remains in the fold.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Aaron Judge (OF, 30)

The Yankees (publicly) offered Judge a 7 year, $213.5M extension prior to the start of the 2022 season. He responded with a thanks but no thanks, 62 home runs, 131 RBIs, and a looming AL MVP award. He now projects mathematically to an 8 year, $303M extension in our system - though many speculate that $50M a year isn't outlandish this winter.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, 33)

Rizzo quietly posted 21 2Bs, 32 HRs, & 75 RBIs in his first full season at the Bronx, and while his age isn’t going to be in his favor from here out, hitting in Yankee Stadium should be. He’s sitting on a $16M player option, but working with Brian Cashman to convert that into a multi-year guarantee seems to make sense for both sides. Will 3 years, $45M get it done?

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Aaron Hicks (OF, 33)

Hicks is a long way removed from the 27 HR, 79 RBI season he posted in 2018, but he still carried a 2.1 WAR through the 2022 campaign. His $30.5M of future salaries ($10.5M, $9.5M, $9.5M, $1M buyout) aren’t devastating, but the Yankees will be looking to free up this roster spot. They can pay down most of this contract to buy a better return out of the deal.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS, 28, $6M)

Kiner-Falefa’s stock really dropped through the postseason, where the bat went ice cold, and errors begin to pile up defensively. His $6M projected arbitration salary isn’t too much to tolerate, but if the Yankees plan is to promote Anthony Volpe early in 2023, then bringing in a more experienced (and likely cheaper) veteran presence to handcuff him with makes more sense.

Toronto Blue Jays

Guaranteed Contracts: 9

Current Tax Payroll: $148.4M

Projected Arbitration: $61M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $1.6M

Projected Tax Payroll: $211M

Projected Tax Space: $22M

Notable Options: Anthony Bass (RP, $3M club)

Notable Free Agents: Ross Stripling (SP), Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF), Shaun Anderson (RP), FULL LIST

The Blue Jays turned a slow start into 92 wins this past season, good enough for 2nd place in the AL East and a Wild Card berth. It'll likely be a little bit of everything for this team over the next few months, including internal extensions, a trade or two, & a non-tender or two as well.

Extension Candidate(s)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, 24)

Vlad Jr. didn’t quite have the incredible 2021 campaign (.311, 48 HRs, 111 RBIs), but he followed it up with a pretty outstanding year 4 regardless (.274, 32 HRs, 97 RBIs). More importantly, he’s proven he can be the cornerstone bat this franchise can lock down and build around for years to come. Right now, that currently projects to the tune of 12 years, $435M ($590M canadian).

Bo Bichette (SS, 25)

Over the past two seasons Bichette is averaging 36 2Bs, 26 HRs, 97 RBIs, & a .295 average as the starting shortstop for the Blue Jays. Money has exploded at this position (and will continue to this winter), but more and more franchises are letting these types of players get to free agency and explore opportunities. But if the plan is to keep him in the fold, there’s an 8 year $208M valuation on him right now in our system.

Alek Manoah (SP, 24)

Striking early has become the latest trend, and the Blue Jays have an arm here that appears to be worth considering in this regard. The 24 year old posted a 2.24 ERA, .992 WHIP, & 180 strikeouts in 31 2022 stars for Toronto. He values toward a 7 year, $107M extension in our system which would buy out the rest of his team control, + 2 years of free agency.

Trade Candidate(s)

Alejandro Kirk (C, 24)

It was a solid first full season at the MLB level for Kirk (14 HRs, 63 RBIs, .787 OPS), but the Blue Jays have a comedy of riches at this position right now. If they feel a Gabriel Moreno/Danny Jansen combo can carry them for the next few seasons (and then some in Moreno’s case), stealing value for Kirk in a deal this winter is the right play. Kirk has 4 years of team control remaining through 2026.

Non-Tender Candidate(s)

Cavan Biggio (2B, 28, $2.7M)

It just hasn’t clicked for Biggio like it has for many of the other young prospects to come up for the Blue Jays of late. He posted career lows in many areas this past season, with 30 more strikeouts than hits in 2022. He projects to a $2.7M salary for his second turn through arbitration, so it’s not a break the bank situation, but if Toronto can’t find a trade partner (unlikely), a non-tender seems possible.

Bradley Zimmer (OF, 29, $1.5M)

Zimmer was brought in to play a little defense and steal a few bases. He did a little of that, and not much more - putting his $1.5M projected arbitration salary in jeopardy this winter.

Tampa Bay Rays

Guaranteed Contracts: 5

Current Tax Payroll: $70.6M

Projected Arbitration: $43.7M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $1.6M

Projected Tax Payroll: $116M

Projected Tax Space: $117M

Notable Options: Kevin Kiermaier (OF, $13M club)

Notable Free Agents: David Peralta (OF), Corey Kluber (SP), Mike Zunino (C), FULL LIST

The Rays posted 86 wins, finishing 10 games over .500 to secure a Wild Card berth in the 2022 Postseason. With injuries to notable players headlining their season, a playoff run has to be considered a success story heading into the winter. They'll get a little bit healthier, a little more experienced, and maybe even spend a little more payroll this year to try to stick in AL East contention for 2023.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Shane McClanahan (SP, 26)

McClanahan finished the 2022 season with 194 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 166 innings, including a 2.54 ERA and .969 WHIP. He’s a legitime SP1 in this league, but playing for a team that has never paid a player true SP1 money. With 5 years of control left (1 year of pre-arbitration plus 4 arbitration years through 2027), this extension would be about paying him more than his controlled years should carry, but much less than a bonafide veteran pitcher is making elsewhere. Mathematically, this says 6 years, $97M in our system - or slightly above the $15M per year mark Tyler Glasnow just scored.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Randy Arozarena (OF, 27)

Arozarena is scheduled for his first of four trips through arbitration this winter, currently projected to earn around $3.8M for his efforts next season. He didn’t quite match the 4.09 WAR 2021 campaign he posted this past season, but a 20 HR, 89 RBI finish is certainly notable. Will the Rays strike high and try to pull one of their classic 1 for 3 moves, further shoring up their depth and sustainability as a contender?

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Ji-Man Choi (1B, 31, $4.6M)

Choi’s power numbers fell off of a truck this past season. With a projected $4.6M salary forthcoming in arbitration this winter, it seems inevitable that Choi is set for new scenery next season.

Baltimore Orioles

Guaranteed Contracts: 1

Current Tax Payroll: $29M

Projected Arbitration: $22.6M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $12M

Projected Tax Payroll: $64M

Projected Tax Space: $169M

Notable Options: Jordan Lyles (P, $11M club)

Notable Free Agents: Rougned Odor (2B), Robinson Chirinos (C), Jesus Aguilar (1B), FULL LIST

One of the bigger surprises in MLB last season, the Orioles posted 83 wins, good enough for 4th place in the AL East ahead of the Red Sox. Is this the winter they push their chips into the middle and try to swing with the big boys? We might still be a year away from that, but a trade or two and a free agent signing or two certainly seem on the table here.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Adley Rutschman (C, 25)

It didn’t long for this pick to look like a winner for the Orioles. Rutschman seems every bit the part on both sides of the ball, finishing 2022 with 13 Hrs, 42 RBIs and an .807 OPS in 100 games. Baltimore’s not known for early (or late) extensions, but this one seems safer than most opportunities that come through Camden Yards. Salvador Perez did an $8.5M per year extension with the Royals at age 26 back in 2016. If we adjust for the current tax threshold, that means about $10.5M per year today.

Cedric Mullins (OF, 28)

After an out of body experience in 2021, Mullins fell back down to earth a bit for the 2022 season, finishing with 16 HRs, 64 RBIs, and a near 4 WAR for his efforts. It’s a great time for Baltimore to get ahead of the game here, and start to define a 4-5 player core for what could be a legitimate division contention window. He projects to a 5 year, $75M extension in our system, but with three years of arbitration control still available, this likely starts at around $60M, with incentives to cash out more.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Anthony Santander (OF, 28)

This one doesn’t seem likely, but even if the Orioles start to smell like a big market team with a few splash moves this offseason, they’ll still need to consider their bottom line at all times. Santander projects to a $7.4M salary in his 3rd of 4 arbitration years, and if the plan is to keep Mullins & Austin Hays on a more long-term basis, then flipping Santander on a high note and replacing him with a less expensive prospect is probably the right business move.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Cameron Gallagher (C, 29, $1M)

There’s another catcher on the roster who’s likely to be making a lot more than $1M soon (if not very soon). The plan for Baltimore should be Rutschman plus a cost-controlled veteran to platoon with him from here out.

Boston Red Sox

Guaranteed Contracts: 4

Current Tax Payroll: $119M

Projected Arbitration: $41M

Projected Pre-Arbitration: $4.7M

Projected Tax Payroll: $165M

Projected Tax Space: $68M

Notable Options: Xander Bogaerts (SS, $20M player), Chris Sale (SP, $27.5M player), Eric Hosmer (1B, $13M player), FULL LIST

Notable Free Agents: Michael Wacha (SP, 31), Nathan Eovaldi (SP, 32), J.D. Martinez (DH, 35), FULL LIST

Easily one of the more disappointing teams to come out of the 2022 MLB season, Boston finished an AL East worst 78-84, despite a fairly watchable late season surge. They enter the winter months with far more questions than answers.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Rafael Devers (3B, 26)

Devers remains one of the most underrated stars in MLB, despite 4 straight seasons of above average production. He posted a 4.57 WAR in 2022, and is headed for his final run through arbitration this winter. The last time Boston had a star player heading into his last arbitration, he was rewarded $27M then traded to the Dodgers a month later. Devers projects to a $17.5M salary in arbitration 3, but the Dodgers very much need a third baseman. If we’re talking long-term extension here (and we should be), it’s a 12 year, $350M evaluation in our system currently.

Xander Bogaerts (SS, 26)

Bogaerts is largely expected to opt-out of the remaining 3 years, $60M lefton his current contract, putting him inline to join Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, & Dansby Swanson on the open SS market. Boston’s recent offer was basically a 1 year, $30M tack-on - so it’s safe to say things aren’t going well currently. Make that 6 years at $30M in each of them, and we’re probably at a much better place.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Bobby Dalbec (1B, 28)

Much like Cordero’s loose foothold on the roster, Dalbec should be considered on the outside looking in now that Eric Hosmer is on board, and Triston Casas is up to stay. Boston will be selling relatively low here, but an asset with a chance to play is better than one sitting 4th on the depth chart. Financially speaking Dalbec carries 4 years of team control with him.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Franchy Cordero (1B, 28, $2M)

Cordero hasn’t posted a positive WAR rating since 2019 and is averaging around .200 at the plate over the past 3 seasons. With Eric Hosmer and youngster Triston Casas now in the fold next year, he’s a safe bet to be pushed off the 40-man here shortly.

boston red sox new york yankees toronto blue jays tampa bay devil rays baltimore orioles

Jets Acquire James Robinson

Michael GinnittiOctober 25, 2022

The New York Jets wasted little time replacing their injured star running back Breece Hall (torn ACL), when they acquired James Robinson from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jets will forfeit a 2023 6th round pick that can convert to a 5th rounder if Robinson rushes for 600 yards total in 2022. He enters week 8 with 340 yards gained already.

Contractually speaking, Robinson was entering year 3 of his undrafted rookie contract. He brings with him a non-guaranteed $546,946 salary to the Jets, leaving behind $349,721 of dead cap to the Jaguars.

Robinson is eligible for restricted free agency next March, and could factor into the Jets’ rotation on a low end tender (scheduled to cost around $2.6M next season). If such becomes the case, New York will have Hall, Robinson, & Michael Carter under contract for around $5.8M of allocated cap space - a lethal value play for a team on the upswing.

james robinson new york jets jacksonville jaguars

Offseason MLB Trade Candidates

Michael GinnittiOctober 24, 2022

As we approach the 2022-23 MLB offseason, a look at a notable player from each team that could be on the trade block, including the future financial outlook for each.

Christian Walker (1B, ARI)

2 years of arbitration, 2025 free agent

This isn’t a “must happen” situation by any means, but the D-Backs do have a really strong crop of position players ready to rise up from the lower levels. If the name of the game is bringing in big league pitching to complement them, then selling high on a player like Walker has plenty of value.

Manuel Pina (C, ATL)

1 year, $4.5M + $4M 2024 club option

Pina’s availability and production was limited behind the likes of Travis d'Arnaud & William Contreras. With d’Arnaud now under control through 2024, and and Contreras through 2027, at least attempting to find a suitor for Pina this winter makes sense.

Anthony Santander (OF, 28)

3 years of arbitration, 2026 free agent

This one doesn’t seem likely, but even if the Orioles start to smell like a big market team with a few splash moves this offseason, they’ll still need to consider their bottom line at all times. Santander projects to a $7.4M salary in his 3rd of 4 arbitration years, and if the plan is to keep Mullins & Austin Hays on a more long-term basis, then flipping Santander on a high note and replacing him with a less expensive prospect is probably the right business move.

Rafael Devers (3B, BOS)

1 year, $17M (projected), 2024 free agent

Devers should be the prototypical position player to pay and utilize as your cornerstone piece, but the Red Sox have so many question marks and roster holes to address this winter, that it simply may be the wrong business decision. Devers & SS Xander Bogaerts are due for $25M+ per year extensions, but it’s unclear if Boston is in a position to spend that kind of cash right now. If he hits the trade block, Devers will draw blockbuster offers from most of the league.

Nick Madrigal (2B, CHC)

4 years of arbitration, 2027 free agent

The 25 year old saw limited action for the Cubs in 2021, after showing signs of starting capabilities in his rookie campaign with the Reds. He’ll be a contact hitter for life, and a strong defensive infielder as well. Perhaps that’s an upgrade for certain organizations around the league. Nico Hoerner figures to move over to 2B next season.

Lucas Giolito (SP, CWS)

1 year projected $11M, 2024 free agent

After a 4.90 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 0.12 WAR campaign, this would be a sell low - no question. But Giolito is scheduled for free agency after 2023, and the White Sox just had one of the more underperforming seasons in all of MLB. A shakeup or two across this lineup is inevitable, and there’s always a team looking to add an arm.

Nick Senzel (3B, CIN)

3 years of arbitration, 2026 free agent

It just hasn’t clicked. Senzel posted his worst campaign to date, finishing 2022 with a -1.25 WAR in Cincy. The one bright spot here is that there appear to be plenty of teams in need of a 3B next season, with a free agent/trade market that remains thin, to say the least. Will an organization try to convince themselves they can be a “fixer”?

Amed Rosario (SS, CLE)

1 year, $9M (projected), 2024 free agent

Over the past two seasons, Rosario has averaged 25 doubles, 7 triples, 11 homers,  64 RBIs & 15 stolen bases for the Guardians. He’s a versatile fielder, and will enter his final year of arbitration at 27 years old. With youngster Andres Gimenez able to slide over to his more normal SS position, flipping Rosario for more depth would be a very Cleveland-like move.

Randal Grichuk (OF, COL)

1 year, $5M, 2024 free agent

Grichuk was brought over from Toronto with hopes of adding power to the outfield, but he didn’t deliver as such. Colorado will assuredly be active in the free agent market for home runs, and with the Blue Jays paying nearly 50% of his $9.3M final salary, Grichuk should be on the trade block.

Jose Cisnero (RP, DET)

1 year, $2.2M (projected), 2024 free agent

The 33-year old is headed for his final year of arbitration, and while teams will be calling about Gregory Soto (3 years of arbitration), the Tigers are much more likely to think smaller this offseason. Detroit holds a lot of young pieces that underperformed in 2022, so giving this thing another year to percolate seems the right path.

Jose Urquidy (SP, HOU)

3 years of arbitration, 2026 free agent

The Astros are flush with talented starting pitching, and assuming Justin Verlander remains in the mix next season, can flip at least one arm for more bullpen/lineup depth. Urquidy seems the most likely candidate both for value and for what Houston can internally replace him with (Javier, Whitley). The 28-year-old is headed for his first arbitration offseason, set to earn around $3.6M.

Salvador Perez (C, KC)

3 years, $62M + a $13.5M 2026 club option

Perez missed 65 games this season, but has routinely been healthy and reliable. He’s heading toward age 33, and the contract is hefty, but this is a player 1 year removed from 48 homers, 121 RBIs and an over 5 WAR. With youngster MJ Melendez ready for a larger role, moving Perez to a contending franchise should make sense for both parties.

Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH, LAA)

1 year, $30M, 2024 free agent

We’re finally hearing frustration from the superhuman regarding the lack of winning during his 5 year tenure with the Angels. Will the two sides let 2023 play out, then let free agency handle the rest, or will Ohtani be the latest superstar heading into the final year of arbitration to be moved (Lindor, Betts, Turner). This is an extremely fluid situation.

Ryan Pepiot (SP, LAD)

Rookie Status

Pepiot currently ranks as the Dodgers’ 6th overall prospect, 2nd among pitchers (Bobby Miller). With Kershaw’s career in flux, Buehler’s 2023 largely gone due to surgery, and Tyler Anderson & Andrew Heaney headed to free agency, why are we projecting a top arm to be moved? Because this is the Dodgers. Because Shohei Ohtani is available. Because Rafael Devers may be available. Because this is the Dodgers.

Pablo Lopez (SP, MIA)

2 years of arbitration, 2025 free agent

Lopez was highly coveted at this past August deadline, but the Marlins were looking to be blown away with an offer (rightfully so). Lopez has now posted back-to-back-to-back seasons that prove he’s worthy of top rotation action & money. If the Marlins aren’t willing to be that team, striking on a deal this winter (with two years of control remaining) could prove to bring back a franchise-altering haul. Lopez projects to an 8 year, $200M extension in our system currently.

Rowdy Tellez (1B, MIL)

2 years, of arbitration, 2025 free agent

Acquired from Toronto before the 2021 deadline, Tellez has rounded into exactly what he was projected to be, a 30+ HR, high 700 OPS slugger with limited production elsewhere. The Brewers should sell high after his big power 2022, especially if it means they can work to rebuild their bullpen. Finding 30 HRs on the open market has become increasingly easier to do.

Giovanny Urshela (3B, MIN)

1 year, $9M (projected), 2024 free agent

Acquired from the Yankees in the deal that sent Josh Donaldson to the Bronx, Ursehla posted a strong overall 2022 campaign, and is worthy of sticking around another year. But if the Twins want to hand the keys over to Jose Miranda, while also shedding a little payroll in order to ramp up for their next big shortstop move, Urshela holds value.

James McCann (C, NYM)

2 years, $24M, 2025 free agent

This might be a bit of wishful thinking here, but there’s no question the Mets would like to get out from under this contract as quickly as possible - especially with top prospect Francisco Alvarez now purchased, & Tomas Nido (2 more years of control) in the running for a Gold Glove. New York will be looking to retain or replace 3/4s of a rotation, half a bullpen, and a centerfielder this offseason, so paying down McCann’s deal to get back a hole plugger might be worth their time.

Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY)

3 years, $30.5M, 2026 free agent

Hicks is a long way removed from the 27 HR, 79 RBI season he posted in 2018, but he still carried a 2.1 WAR through the 2022 campaign. His future salaries ($10.5M, $9.5M, $9.5M, $1M buyout) aren’t devastating, but the Yankees will be looking to free up this roster spot. They can pay down most of this contract to buy a better return out of the deal.

Sean Murphy (C, OAK)

3 years of arbitration, 2026 free agent

Murphy’s name has been attached to trades for months now, and with seemingly every other veteran player having been moved off the roster in one way or another - Murphy is somewhat of a last man standing. A projected $3.3M arbitration salary for 2023 isn’t daunting (even for the A’s), but with two of their top prospects (Shea Langeliers , & Tyler Soderstrom)

Rhys Hoskins (1B, PHI)

1 year, $12M (projected), 2024 free agent

I know, this one seems crazy after the postseason run Hoskins’ has had at the plate - but that’s kind of the point here. The Phillies held the 2nd most errors at 1B, and the 3rd worst fielding percentage at the position in 2022. It was a nice bounceback year for Hoskins at the plate, but the Phillies aren’t going to be short on power for the next few seasons. Upgrading this position (and selling Hoskins while he’s a commodity) should be one of the offseason priorities.

Kevin Newman (SS, PIT)

2 years of arbitration, 2025 free agent

Bryan Reynolds will garner much of the interest this offseason, but with 3 years of control left, it seems unlikely that anyone will meet the demands that Pittsburgh will be seeking. Newman is a versatile talent at a position that many contending teams have question marks surrounding this winter. Oh, and Oneil Cruz has officially arrived.

Blake Snell (SP, SD)

1 year, $16.6M, 2024 free agent

The expiring contract at least makes Snell’s status interesting, but it’s hard to believe that a team that ran out of starting pitching down the stretch would give up on its #2 arm in a contention window. I’m sure they’d love to shed payroll somewhere, but with 6 notable free agents, and a Juan Soto extension looming, San Diego is in spend mode - not save.

Jake Junis (P, SF)

1 year, $3.3M (projected), 2024 free agent

Junis filled out the backend of the Giants rotation in 2022, but was more of a swingman during his tenure with the Royals. This type of versatility is valuable - either to keep, or to trade. Junis could very well be packaged with a few others to secure bullpen depth, or upgrade another position (1B, 2B) in need.

Jesse Winker (DH, SEA)

1 year $8.25M, 2024 free agent

Winker was a viable middle of the lineup bat for the Reds in 2021, but things fell off a cliff this past year in Seattle. The Mariners are in contention, so paying down this contract to open up the roster spot and bring back some sort of depth asset should be a priority.

Paul DeJong (SS, STL)

1 year, $9M + 2 club options ($2M buyout)

There’s probably zero market for DeJong in his current existence, but the Cardinals are one of the teams expected to make major offers for a few of the top available shortstops (Correa, Swanson, Turner), and everyone knows it. It’s going to be a lopsided move, but a move St. Louis should make regardless.

Ji-Man Choi (1B, TB)

1 year, $4.5M (projected), 2024 free agent

Choi’s power numbers fell off of a truck this past season. He’s probably as much a non-tender candidate as he is a trade one, but it seems inevitable that Choi is set for new scenery next season.

Nick Solak (OF, TEX)

4 years of control, 2027 free agent

Solak barely has a spot on the MLB roster right now - let alone after whatever the Rangers are planning for Version 2.0 of their massive offseason rebuild. It’s unusual for teams to move players with 4 years of control left, but Solak has shown glimpses of ability at the MLB level, and only carries 1 more minor league option into 2023. Also, the Rangers need to utilize every avenue possible to acquire pitching.

Alejandro Kirk (C, TOR)

4 years of control, 2027 free agent

It was a solid first full season at the MLB level for Kirk (14 HRs, 63 RBIs, .787 OPS), but the Blue Jays have a comedy of riches at this position right now. If they feel a Gabriel Moreno/Danny Jansen combo can carry them for the next few seasons (and then some in Moreno’s case), stealing value for Kirk in a deal this winter is the right play.

Victor Robles (OF, WAS)

2 years of arbitration, 2025 free agent

Robles finally started to hit major league pitching toward the end of the 2022 season, but it shouldn’t be enough for anyone to get too excited about. His centerfield defense & 15 stolen bases however might be uber attractive to teams looking for upgrades in these areas. He won’t break the bank this year (around $3M projected in arbitration), and the 2 years of control should be attractive enough to garner an offer.

 

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49ers Acquire Christian McCaffrey

Michael GinnittiOctober 21, 2022

The 49ers planted their foot in the ground as serious NFC contenders last night when they acquired RB Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for four draft picks.

The trade compensation suggests that multiple teams had made offers for the 26 year old offensive weapon, with teams like the Bills & Rams all reportedly interested.

The Terms

San Francisco Acquires:
RB Christian McCaffrey (26)

Carolina Acquires:
2023 2nd round pick
2023 3rd round pick
2023 4th round pick
2024 5th round pick

The Traded Contract

The Niners are set up for outstanding financial value with this contract through the remainder of 2022, thanks to a simple base salary restructure that was processed on McCaffrey’s contract by the Panthers this past March.

SF’s Cap/Cash Hits
2022: $690,000 (guaranteed)
2023: $12,000,000 ($1M guaranteed for injury)
2024: $12,000,000 (non-guaranteed)
2025: $12,200,000 (non-guaranteed)

49ers 2022 Salary Cap Table

The Dead Cap & Cash

The Panthers will take on significant dead cap hits each of this and next year per this trade. 2022: $8,095,750 ($7,910,000 cash)
2023: $18,352,250 ($0 cash)

Panthers 2022 Salary Cap Table

The Savings

In addition to the four draft picks acquired, Carolina frees up a little bit of cap space both this and next season, and a good amount of potential cash going forward as well.

2022: $690,000 cap/cash saved
2023: $1,198,500 cap, $12,000,000 cash saved

The Draft Picks

With four shiny new picks acquired from this deal, the Panthers now boast some of the best draft capital in the league.

Projected 2023 1st-4th Round Picks:
#1, #33, #51, #86, #97, #117

In Conclusion

The 49ers get a bonafide offensive star for a bounty of draft picks, and he barely moves the needle financially speaking this season. In fact, even with McCaffrey in tow, San Francisco is only allocating $3,368,545 to their active running back core in 2022, 30th in the NFL.

However, the 49ers have now essentially forfeited their 2023 draft, with the #148 selection in the 5th round currently slated to be their first pick (compensatory draft picks notwithstanding). It’s an all-in move from San Francisco, something we’ve seen work quite a bit across the sports world of late.

And if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t “the guy” - maybe Christian McCaffrey can be.

christian mccaffrey carolina panthers san francisco 49ers
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