Not sure if this is out there yet (#sarcasm), but James Harden took a $14.3M haircut with his 2022-23 salary with the Philadelphia 76ers. But was this a real paycut, or one of those “funny money restructures”?

What Was vs. What Is

The undisputed truth about Harden’s 2022-23 compensation is that it started as a $47,366,760 player option, and wound up a $33,000,000 guaranteed salary. All he had to do was exercise the option, and the $47M+ was his.

Less Now but More Overall, right?

Emphatically no. The easy out with this conversation is to look at the original $47.3M salary, and the new $68.64M contract, and say that he wins out in the end. But the 2023-24 salary is a $35.64M player option, and NBA stars almost always opt out of less-than-max player options these days (Kyrie Irving excluded).

Furthermore, by declining the $47.3M option, he also reset his “starting salary” point. Had he exercised that option, then signed a maximum free agent contract next offseason, Harden’s 2023-24 starting salary would be 105% of that $47.3M, because he had earned more than the maximum salary in the previous year. This means that Harden could have cashed in $47.3M + $49.7M, or $97M over the next two years had he stayed on his current path, $29M more than his current contract contains.

But, a thinner, healthier James Harden is going to return to star form this year, and then decline his player option next year, right? Probably, which puts him back on track for a 35% of the salary cap maximum salary in 2023-24. If we assume a $134,000,000 league cap, this means a $46,900,000 salary, or $79.9M over the next two seasons.

Two-Year Payout Scenarios (22-23 + 23-24)

1. Current 2-Year Payout: $68.64M
2. Current Salary + Opt-Out & Max Contract Next Summer: $79.9M
3. Original Option Exercised, Max Contract Next Summer: $97.1M

Concluding Thoughts

Harden’s been an easy target, so trying to find and poke holes in a move like this can come with the territory, but this is a true veteran pay cut, no matter how you slice it. The fact of the matter is that the $14.3M saved by his new salary allowed players such as P.J. Tucker & Montrezl Harrell to fit into the puzzle.

Need more proof that he’s all-in on this team? If the goal here was to chop off salary but solidify his long term payout (Chris Paul in Phoenix), then this would have been a true multi-year contract, though still for not near what a maximum contract can pay him next season. But Harden taking a 1 year contract (with Bird rights) gives him the power to veto any trade scenario that the 76ers might have been inclined to include him in this season - per the CBA. A multi-year contract would have forfeited this trade veto power.

Love him or hate him, the player that has forced himself off of two rosters in the past few seasons did everything in his power to not only stay on this one - but to make it even better.

Salary Cap Space

The season opens with 4 teams (IND, SAS, MEM, & DET) currently possessing cap space, though the latter two hold less than $1M of room at last look. There may be a real push from other organizations (Utah, Houston, Charlotte) in the coming months to move pieces and open up cap space for next summer.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/

Hard-Capped Teams

9 teams enter the regular season hard-capped, including contending hopefuls Philadelphia & Memphis.

Memphis: Kennedy Chandler signed a 4 year contract using the NTMLE
Minnesota: Kyle Anderson was signed using the NTMLE which has a salary that is greater than or equal to the TMLE.
Oklahoma City: Jaylin Williams signed a 4 year contract using the NTMLE
Orlando: Caleb Houstan signed a 4 year contract using the NTMLE
Philadelphia: PJ Tucker was signed using the NTMLE which has a salary that is greater than or equal to the TMLE.
Portland: Gary Payton: was signed using the NTMLE which has a salary that is greater than or equal to the TMLE.
Sacramento: Malik Monk was signed using the NTMLE which has a salary that is greater than or equal to the TMLE.
Utah: Acquired Collin Sexton via Sign and Trade
Washington: Delon Wright was signed using the NTMLE which has a salary that is greater than or equal to the TMLE.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/

Luxury Tax Threshold

10 teams enter the season over the tax threshold, with three more (POR, MIA, WAS) on the brink of heading over at some point. The LA Clippers  ($192M) carry the highest tax payroll to start the year, while the 2nd place Warriors ($189M) currently project toward a whopping $170M tax bill (the same amount they paid last season). On the flip side, the Spurs ($56.5M), Pacers ($54.4M), & Grizzlies ($28.8M) currently possess the most tax room in the league.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/

Top Paid Players

Steph Curry ($48M) enters the season as the highest paid player in the NBA, and he’s currently slated to remain in the #1 spot through the 2025-26 season.

Top 5 22-23 Salaries

1. Stephen Curry, $48M
2. Russell Westbrook, $47M
3. LeBron James, $44.4M
4. Kevin Durant, $44.1M
5. Bradley Beal, $43.2M

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/

Top Offseason Allocations

The Phoenix Suns ($364M), led by an extension for Devin Booker and an offer sheet match for Deandre Ayton allocated the most new money in the league. 5 teams: Phoenix, Denver, Portland, Memphis, and New Orleans, locked in over $300M this past summer. On the flip side, 5 teams (Charlotte, LA Clippers, Brooklyn, Boston, & Atlanta) finalized less than $50M in new contracts this past offseason.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tools/offseason

Most Expensive Starting 5 

No surprise, but the Warriors’ projected rotation of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, & Looney projects to be the most expensive starting roster ($153M) in the NBA this season. The Nets ($145M) & Bucks ($137M) round out the Top 3, while the Spurs ($31M), Grizzlies ($44M), & Rockets ($45M) currently bring up the rear.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/depth-charts/

Notable 2023 Free Agents

It’s early, but it’s always a good time to recognize players entering a contract year (even if free agency in the NBA has become a shell of itself of late).

Guards
Russell Westbrook
Kyrie Irving
D'Angelo Russell
Reggie Jackson
Dillon Brooks
Seth Curry
James Harden (option)

Forwards
Jerami Grant
Kevin Love
Will Barton
Christian Wood
Kyle Kuzma (option)
Draymond Green (option)
Kristaps Porzingis (option)
Khris Middleton (option)

Centers
Myles Turner
Nikola Vucevic
Al Horford
Brook Lopez

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/

After a sideline altercation with the coaching staff more than sealed his time in Carolina, WR Robbie Anderson was traded to the Arizona Cardinals Monday for 2 late round draft picks.

The Cardinals will relinquish a 2024 6th round pick, & a 2025 7th round pick for the wideout, who brings a team friendly salary to his new team.

Undrafted out of Temple back in 2016, Carolina signed Anderson to a 3 year, $37.7M contract last August, including $20.5M fully guaranteed at signing. Furthermore, the Panthers converted $11.7M of 2022 salary into signing bonus, this past March, leaving only the prorated minimum salary to be moved in this trade.

Arizona Receives

Total Contract: 2 years, $12.69M

2022 Cap/Cash: $690,000 (guaranteed)
2023 Cap/Cash: $12M ($0 guaranteed)

There’s a $3M roster bonus due next March that will put the 2023 salary on notice. If the remainder of the year goes well, a $12M salary may be tenable financially speaking.


Carolina Retains
The Panthers keep $19.9M of dead cap on their books per this move, broken out as:

2022: $10.26M
2023: $9.7M

Carolina saved just $690,000 (cap & cash) this season, but a worthwhile $12M (cap & cash) for 2023. 


Concluding Thoughts
Anderson’s acquisition is a reaction to the (possibly) season ending loss of WR Marquise Brown (foot). For now, the Cardinals now have DeAndre Hopkins ($30.75M), Marquise Brown ($13.4M), and Robbie Anderson ($12M) on the 2023 books for a combined $56M of cap.

Cam Akers

RB, Rams
Age: 23
Deadline Salary: $650k

Akers fell out of favor with the Rams about as quickly as any player has. His rookie contract has a year and a half remaining on it, but none of it is guaranteed. He's a $650k rental at the deadline if someone is willing to bite.

William Jackson

CB, Commanders
Age: 30
Deadline Salary: $3M

The Commanders take on dead cap hits of $10.8M in 2022 ($3M saved), & $9M in 2023 ($6.75M saved). New team acquires cap & cash hits of $3M for 2022, $12.75M for 2023 ($2.5M roster bonus due March 17th).

Daron Payne

DT, Commanders
Age: 25
Deadline Salary: $4.7M

Payne is set for unrestricted free agency after 2022, playing out his 5th year option this season. Washington would take on $3.8M of dead cap to trade him at the deadline.

Robbie Anderson

WR, Panthers
Age: 29
Deadline Salary: $575,000

The Panthers restructured most of Anderson’s 2022 salary, so they’ll be eating a healthy chunk of dead cap to move on here: $10.3M in 2022 ($575k saved), $9.7M in 2023 ($12M saved). New team acquires him at $575,000 for 2022, $12M for 2023 (including a $3M roster bonus due in early March).

Christian McCaffrey

RB, Panthers
Age: 26
Deadline Salary: $575,000

The Panthers restructured most of McCaffrey’s 2022 salary so they’ll be eating a healthy chunk of dead cap to move on here: $8.21M for 2022 ($575k saved), $18.3M for 2023 ($1.1M saved). New team acquires him at $575,000 for 2022, $12M for 2023, $12M for 2024, $12.2M for 2025, with only the 2022 compensation fully guaranteed. 

Chase Claypool

WR, Steelers
Age: 24
Deadline Salary: $673,000

Claypool still hasn’t found footing in Pittsburgh, despite 4 quarterbacks attempting to gel with him. None of the $673,000 remaining in 2022 or the $1.5M slated for 2023 are guaranteed, so a late round draft pick might make sense for a team looking to bulk up depth in their WR room with little risk. The Steelers would take on dead hits of $1.1M in 2022, and $593k in 2023.

Roquan Smith

LB, Bears
Age: 25
Deadline Salary: $5.4M

The Bears and Smith agreed to “live with each other” after offseason trade demands went nowhere. Chicago should be looking for as many draft picks as possible down the stretch these days, so adding Smith and his expiring contract back to the trade block (amongst others) makes the most sense. They’ll take on $4.3M of 2022 dead cap to ship him out at the deadline.

Robert Quinn

DE, Bears
Age: 32
Deadline Salary: $7.1M

Like Smith (above), Quinn expressed early frustration with sticking on this floundering Bears’ roster. Little materialized from it, and Quinn hasn’t exactly helped the matter on the field (#110 edge rusher according to PFF), but if the Bears are desperate for draft capital, they can certainly “buy back” much of this remaining salary in order to increase their trade price. On its face, Quinn’s contract would carry over $7.1M (guaranteed) in 2022, $14M in 2023 (non-guaranteed) and $13M in 2024 (non-guaranteed).

David Montgomery

RB, Bears
Age: 25
Deadline Salary: $1.55M

Montgomery has shown flashes of being a true bellcow RB1 in this league, with above average pass-catching abilities as well. He’s playing out the final year of his contract, and it seems unlikely the Bears will be in position to continue this relationship going forward, so pulling back a mid-to-late draft pick (versus playing the compensatory draft pick game) probably makes good business sense. Chicago will take on $1.24M of dead cap at the deadline here.

M.J. Stewart

S, Texans
Age: 27
Deadline Salary: $965,000

Former 2nd round pick Stewart was waived out of his rookie contract by Tampa back in 2020. Now, on a near minimum 1-year contract, and in a depth role for the Texans, he’s rounded into one of the better pass coverage safeties in the league. An extension to stay in Houston might be option 1, but the Texans have been known to flip players like this for a pick whenever possible, and a certain AFC Favorite is  awfully short handed in their secondary.

Josh Jacobs

RB, Raiders
Age: 24
Deadline Salary: $1.1M

The Raiders declined Jacobs’ $8M 5th-year option for 2023, so he’s operating on a pretty friendly expiring salary here. He’s been a huge part of the Las Vegas offense, so as long as they believe they’re in the playoff hunt, shopping Jacobs is likely off of the table. But with $1.1M to be acquired at the deadline, it’s easy to imagine there’s a suitor or two out there.

Kenny Golladay

WR, Giants
Age: 29
Deadline Salary: $7.2M

Who knows. Contractually speaking, we’re talking about a fully guaranteed $7.2M in 2022, $18M in 2023 ($4.5M guaranteed), $18M in 2024 ($0 guaranteed). This seems too rich to be traded, but the Giants can offer to eat the lion’s share of it to buy a draft pick.

Saquon Barkley

RB, Giants
Age: 25
Deadline Salary: $4M

The 4-1 Giants probably aren’t seriously considering moving one of their biggest weapons, despite his expiring contract, but a lot can change over the next few weeks. If an offer at or north of what his compensatory draft pick value would be comes in, NY will have to take the call.

Mike Gesicki

TE, Dolphins
Age: 27
Deadline Salary: $6M

Gesicki went from arguably the Dolphins’ best pass catching threat the past few years, to almost non-existent in 2022. While the price is a bit hefty for a deadline move, a big name injury in the next few weeks can spur some action (Dallas comes to mind early on). It’s a 1 year, fully guaranteed $6M deal at the deadline.

Once the 2022 regular season concludes, 2020 draft picks will become contract extension eligible for the first time in their careers. We’ll take a look at where the first five drafted quarterbacks stand in terms of calculated values, realistic projections, and thoughts on what could be on the table next spring.

Joe Burrow (CIN, 25)

Spotrac Valuation: $40.3M
Realistic Baseline: 5 years, $260M ($52M)
2023 Prediction: Extension

Burrow’s stock hit an all-time high with the Bengals’ magical 2021 run, but things have come back down to earth a bit slightly to start the 2022 campaign. Cincy doesn’t have a great track record with high, multi-year guaranteed contracts, but that will certainly change with this negotiation. Burrow has a better resume than previous #1 overall pick Kyler Murray, who locked in $220M over the next 6 seasons.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA, 24)

Spotrac Valuation: $37.3M
Realistic Baseline: 5 years, $225M ($45M)
2023 Prediction: No Extension

It’s been a wild start to Tua’s third campaign, as he’s shown both immediate improvement in various areas - and terrifying injuries. Things were trending in the right direction for Tua getting a second contract in Miami, but it stands to reason that that process is on hold for the immediate future. There’s plenty of season left to change that notion, but Tua remains on the “maybe” list for an early extension for now.

Justin Herbert (LAC, 24)

Spotrac Valuation: $43.7M
Realistic Baseline: 5 years, $250M ($50M)
2023 Prediction: Extension

Herbert doesn’t have the credentials or even a playoff snap to match up with Burrow but he’s every bit the talent (if not more). The Chargers have invested plenty over the past two offseasons both in free agency, and in extending their own, to solidify a core group. Adding a mega contract for Herbert to that list makes plenty of sense as the next logical step.

Jordan Love (GB, 23)

As the 4th QB drafted in this class, Love’s future at least belongs in this conversation. What feels like a dead end could quickly become much more if Aaron Rodgers decides to hang it up - or switch teams - after 2022. Love holds a fully guaranteed $2.3M in 2023, and the Packers will have a decision on his 5th year option for 2024 next May, so there’s no major rush here. 

Jalen Hurts (PHI, 24)

Spotrac Valuation: $43.8M
Realistic Baseline: 5 years, $240M ($48M)
2023 Prediction: Extension

Hurts has the most to gain out of this group, with an organization that invested heavily via the draft, free agency, and trade wire to make this a legitimate contending team. Philadelphia looks the part to start 2022, and Hurts (currently #2 according to PFF) does too. Howie Roseman may already have the contract printed at this point. 

Russell Wilson’s 5 year, $242.5M extension with the Denver Broncos came with 2 years, $51M left on the contract he was acquired on. The new deal lowered his 2022 cap figure from $24M down to $17M, despite an increase in cash from $24M to $57M.

Structurally, the deal is a dead cap nightmare, as it contains a $50M signing bonus, a $20M 2nd year option bonus and a $22M 3rd year option bonus. These bonuses keep his base salaries & cap figures relatively low over the next 3 seasons, and also build in a 4 year guarantee with almost certainty.


CASHFLOW
Wilson will see $57M in Year 1 (3rd most), $85M through Year 2 (5th most), $124M through Year 3 (4th most), & $161M through Year 4 (2nd most). HIs $50M signing bonus ranks 3rd among active players, behind only Dak Prescott ($66M), and Matthew Stafford ($60M).

$135M of the $296M total value contract lives in the last 3 years of the contract. These years contain no full guarantees, and are considered “option” years for all intents and purposes.



CAPFLOW
As mentioned above, the new contract lowers Wilson’s 2022 cap figure by $7M, down to $17M. The Broncos also see a cap credit of $5M in 2023, as that hit drops from $27M to $22M. The deal includes a $35.4M cap figure in 2024, which should represent around 15% of the league salary cap for that season, a more than tenable number.

In 2025 however, Wilson’s cap hit is set to rise north of $55M. If the Broncos are comfortable with Wilson as their QB through 2026, they’ll most certainly convert some of the $37M base salary for 2025 into a signing bonus, lowering that year’s cap hit, but increasing the dead cap for 2026 (currently at $31.2M). This will all but ensure that Wilson sees out at least 5 of the 7 years of this contract.


GUARANTEE STRUCTURE
Wilson’s contract comes with $124M fully guaranteed at signing, including all salary and bonuses through the 2024 season. On the 5th league day of 2024, his $37M salary for 2025 becomes fully guaranteed, placing this deal as a 4 year, $161M contract for practical purposes out of the gate.

$4M of Wilson’s 2026 salary is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing, but with any form of salary restructure in 2024 and/or 2025, the dead cap should secure his 2026 salary anyway.


TIMING
The Broncos urgency to get a deal done with their new QB prior to him ever taking a snap for them may be a contentious decision at some point of this contract (positively or negatively speaking), Denver had a perfect model to piggyback off of in Matthew Stafford’s trade to the Rams, and eventual extension after a superb, Super Bowl winning, first season in LA.

Was Denver worried that the longer they wait, the more expensive this contract would get? Was getting in and out of the guaranteed portion of the new contract before age 38 important to them? Or were they simply charmed into locking up Wilson because of the immediate impact & charisma he brought to the organization, even before taking the field?

Only time will tell.

STARTING PITCHERS

Jacob deGrom (NYM, 34)

Spotrac Valuation: $43.1M

It’s a foregone conclusion that deGrom will opt-out of the remaining 2 years, $63M on his current contract. The Mets set a new precedent for contracts to superstar pitchers in the twilight of their careers in giving Max Scherzer $43.3M for 3 seasons. With suitors galore - including divisional rivals, the Mets will likely need to match or exceed Scherzer’s compensation to have a chance to keep their longtime ace.

Carlos Rodon (SF, 29)

Spotrac Valuation: $31.6M

Rodon is about to complete back to back seasons with a sub-3 ERA. Toss in over 200 Ks, a 5+ WAR, and just 49 walks in 167 innings, and he’ll be one of the most coveted arms on the open market this winter. All of this assumes of course that he opts out of a $22.5M player option for 2023, but that seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Starting Pitchers

RELIEF PITCHERS

Edwin Diaz (NYM, 28)

Spotrac Valuation: $16.1M

Back to back 30+ save seasons, including a ridiculous 17 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2022 have Diaz and his agents seeing plenty of dollar signs these days. The $16M calculated valuation is a baseline, as increased tax thresholds should put Diaz’s price point at or around $20M per year.

Daniel Bard (COL, 37)

Spotrac Valuation: $7M

The Rockies brought back Bard this season despite a 5.21 ERA in 67 games. The veteran reliever didn’t let them down, posting a sub 2 ERA in 50+ appearances while giving up just 3 HRs. It stands to reason they’ll strongly consider bringing him back yet again.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Relief Pitchers

CATCHERS

Willson Contreras (CHC, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $16M

Still surprised he wasn’t moved at the deadline, the shine has worn off Contreras a bit as he and the Cubs have gone quietly down the stretch. His market should pick back up quickly this winter, with $16M as a floor for his next deal.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Catchers

1ST BASEMEN

Josh Bell (SD, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $18.4M

Bell has been radio silent since joining the Padres in the big deadline trade, but he’s done enough over the past 3 seasons to warrant plenty of interest on the open market (assuming the Padres let him get there).

Jose Abreu (CWS, 35)

Spotrac Valuation: $9.1M

Still hits for average (.309) and brings overall value (4.0 WAR), but the overall production is down as the age has increased. The White Sox may look to upgrade here, so hopping onto another contender as experienced depth is likely in the Cards (a great destination).

» View All 2023 Free Agent 1st Basemen

2ND BASEMEN

Adam Frazier (SEA, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $10M

Frazier has been inconsistent over his 7 year career, almost following a hot and cold pattern every other season. In that regard, his dip in production this past season could signal much improvement in 2023. He brings plenty of value defensively, and 20 doubles isn’t nothing, so a smaller multi-year guarantee still makes sense.

Cesar Hernandez (WSH, 32)

Spotrac Valuation: $4.5M

The power numbers have fallen off of a cliff, but Hernandez still has on base and defensive value. He’ll be seeking a platoon role in 2023, so the $4.5M valuation might be on the higher side.

» View All 2023 Free Agent 2nd Basemen

SHORTSTOPS

Trea Turner (LAD, 29)

Spotrac Valuation: $32M

Turner’s having arguably his best season as he approaches the open market. Will the Dodgers move on as they did with Corey Seagar, or is Turner their long-term SS option? Either way, it appears there’s around $250M in his immediate future.

Dansby Swanson (ATL, 28)

Spotrac Valuation: $27.4M

Swanson has now posted back to back seasons of 20+ HRs, 80+ RBIs, and 30+ doubles, and will finish 2022 about 40 points higher in batting average than he did for the 2021 campaign. The Braves may be seeking major pitching contracts this winter, so Swanson could be asked to test the open market. A tax adjusted version of Trevor Story’s 6 year, $140M deal in Boston seems right.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Shortstops

3RD BASEMEN

Brandon Drury (SD, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $6.5M

Where did this come from? After 21 HRs in his last 6 seasons combined, Drury is nearing 30 as the 2022 regular season winds down. His 83 RBIs are 20 more than he’s ever produced and his .829 OPS is by far a career high. Will he return as the Padres’ everyday first baseman?

» View All 2023 Free Agent 3rd Basemen

Outfielders

Aaron Judge (NYY, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $32.9M

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a list that doesn’t include Judge at the top of it. The 30 year old posted a career (if not historic) season to finish off his team control term with the Yankees. What’s next? $300M over 8 years equals $37.5M, which also just so happens to be slightly more than Mike Trout’s current $37.1M top AAV among position players

Brandon Nimmo (NYM, 29)

Spotrac Valuation: $14.1M

Nimmo’s health has been the biggest thing holding back a nice extension, but he found his way into 150 games heading toward free agency. He’s a prototypical lead off hitter who plays an excellent center field. Yes, finances for these types of players have been in decline, but Nimmo should find a deal that doubles his current $7M paycheck.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Outfielders

Designated Hitters

J.D. Martinez (BOS, 35)

Spotrac Valuation: $14.8M

Martinez is only a year removed from 28 homers, 99 RBIs and a league leading 42 doubles from the 2021 season. With the exception of doubles (40), this year’s numbers pale in comparison, but there’s zero question Martinez can improve a batting lineup for the next few seasons.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Designated Hitters

The 2022 NFL regular season is here, which means it’s the perfect time to start thinking about which players may not be on their current rosters come 2023. Our way too early look at notable names with contract outs after this season, and the savings to their respective teams should a trade or release happen next spring.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill (TEN, 34)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $36.6M (-$2M)

Potential Savings: A Pre-June 1st trade or release leaves behind $18.8M of dead cap, freeing up $17.8M of cap. A Post June-1st move can free up $27M.

Jared Goff (DET, 28)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $30.65M (-$500k)

Potential Savings: An early March roster bonus ($5M), means Detroit will have to move quickly if they plan to get out from under this contract. With only $10M of dead cap on the books, there’s over $20M to be saved here.

Carson Wentz (WSH, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $26.1M (-$2.1M)

Potential Savings: A $5M roster bonus and $4M of 2023 salary become fully guaranteed on March 17th, so it’ll be an early exit for Wentz if necessary. Doing so will leave behind $0 of dead cap, freeing up all $26.1M.

Derek Carr (LV, 31)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $34.8M (+$15.5M)

Potential Savings: Despite a brand new contract, the Raiders built in a “slight” out after 2022. His 2023 salary & $7.5M of 2024 salary don’t fully guarantee until 2/15/2023, allowing Vegas a chance to outright release him with just $5.625M of dead cap - saving $29.25M. 

Jameis Winston (NO, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.6M (+$11.6M)

Potential Savings: $5.8M of Winston’s 2023 salary fully guarantees on 3/17/2023. A release prior to means $11.2M of dead cap, freeing up $4.4M.

Mitchell Trubisky (PIT, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.625M (+$7M)

Potential Savings: For now, moving on from Trubisky after this season means $2.625M of dead cap, $8M saved. However, he has the chance to vest early March roster bonuses starting with 60% playing time in 2022, so it’s a situation to be monitored.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, 27)

Contract Thru: 2026

2023 Cap: $16.72M (-$1.5M)

Potential Savings: With no additional early guarantees left on this contract, Zeke is operating year-to-year from here out. A Pre-June 1st trade or release after 2022 means $11.86M of dead cap, $4.86M saved, while a Post-June 1st move can save almost $11M next season.

Dalvin Cook (MIN, 27)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $14.1M (+$2.3M)

Potential Savings: While there’s no reason to believe the Vikings are ready to move on here, the contract offers a sizable out after 2022. $2M of his 2023 salary will become fully guaranteed on March 17th, but there’s only $6.2M of dead cap elsewhere on the deal. An early trade frees up nearly $8M of cap. We’re probably a year away from this being a real conversation though.

Christian McCaffrey (CAR, 26)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $19.5M (+$10.8M)

Potential Savings: Back to Back restructures have built up over $18M of dead cap in 2023, but there’s still a Post 6/1 out for Carolina if needed, a move that can free up $12M of cap. This is one to watch.

Derrick Henry (TEN, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.75M (+$6M)

Potential Savings: Tennessee recently pulled $2M from 2023 into 2022, putting the remainder of the contract on notice. An extension is extremely possible, but if the Titans go the other direction, there’s $6.75M to be saved Pre-June 1st, $10.5M if after.

Austin Ekeler (LAC, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $7.25M (+$250k)

Potential Savings: Still the clear front-runner in the RB room, if Ekeler is forced off the roster next year, the Chargers can free up $5.75M at any point in time. There are new horses in the barn, but Ekeler at $7.25M still feels like too much value to give up on.

Aaron Jones (GB, 27)

Contract Thru: 2024
2023 Cap: $20.02M (+$14.1M)

Potential Savings: Jones has a $7M roster bonus due March 17th, but even an early March trade or release can free up $10.4M for the Packers. How Green Bay handles the Jones/Dillon future will be fascinating, especially if Aaron Rodgers retires.

Joe Mixon (CIN, 26)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $12.85M (+$1.4M)

Potential Savings: Mixon’s deal contains no more early vesting guarantees, so the Bengals control his destiny from here out. There’s $7.35M to be saved Pre-June 1st, $10.1M if after. Mixon is one of the best backs in the game, but the Bengals have a lot of mouths to feed soon.

Chase Edmonds (MIA, 26)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $6M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Edmonds’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. Miami can free up $6M if needed. The Dolphins may be treating the RB position as a revolving door in their new spread offense.

Nyheim Hines (IND, 25)

Contract Thru: 2024
2023 Cap: $6.29M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Hines’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. The Colts can free up $3.29M Pre-June 1st, $4.79M thereafter. Jonathan Taylor’s payday is coming.

Gus Edwards (BAL, 27)

Contact Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $5.63M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Edwards’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. Baltimore can free up $4.38M as needed.

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas (NO, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $28.2M (+$15.2M)

Potential Savings: There’s a minimal $250,000 roster bonus due March 19th, 2023, but a Post-June 1st release ($16.45M saved) is the likely outcome here if the Saints are looking to move on. 

Curtis Samuel (WSH, 26)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $13M (+$400k)

Potential Savings: Samuels’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. The Commanders can free up $5.8M as a Pre-June 1st move, $10.6M if after.

Adam Thielen (MIN, 32)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $19.9M (+$8.3M)

Potential Savings: Thielen is set up for a big 2022, but his contract offers an out thereafter if needed. His $11.8M 2023 salary fully guarantees 3/17, but a Pre 6/1 move frees up $6.4M, while a Post 6/1 designation clears $13.4M.

Robbie Anderson (CAR, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $21.7M (+$10.8M)

Potential Savings: Anderson holds an early March roster bonus ($3M), but his huge cap number signifies some sort of movement on this contract. A good year likely means an extension, otherwise, there’s $12M to be cleared here.

Tyler Boyd (CIN, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.3M (+$200k)

Potential Savings: The Bengals probably want to keep Boyd in the fold, but with new extensions forthcoming for Burow, Chase, & Higgins, he may be a casualty next March. Cincy can free up $8.9M of cap to move on.

Robert Woods (TEN, 30)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $13.75M (+$3.75M)

Potential Savings: Traded for just a 6th round pick, Woods is on the same “1 year and we’ll see” plan as Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee can free up all $13.75M by moving on.

DeVante Parker (NE, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $6.3M (+$300k)

Potential Savings: The Pats gave up a 3rd to bring Parker on board, so it’s likely that they get at least two years out of him, but if things fall apart here, there’s $6.3M to be saved ($0 dead cap).

Corey Davis (NYJ, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $11.1M (-$2.5M)

Potential Savings: Davis’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. The Jets can free up $10.5M if needed.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry (NE, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.5M (+$500k)

Potential Savings: Unlike his counterpart Jonnu Smith, Henry has no guarantees in 2023. While an extension is much more likely than a trade or release, there’s $10.5M to be freed up here if the Patriots decide to blow this whole thing up.

Tyler Higbee (LAR, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $8.625M (+$4.4M)

Potential Savings: The Rams are always fighting with the salary cap come March, so while a move away from Higbee would be surprising, there’s $3.4M to be freed up early, and $6.25M if designated Post June 1st.

Logan Thomas (WSH, 31)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $8.75M (+$2.5M)

Potential Savings: Thomas’ deal contains no guarantees or early bonuses in 2023, meaning Washington can free up $5.25M with an early move, or $7M if designated Post June 1st.

Will Dissly (SEA, 26)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $9.25M (+$4.6M)

Potential Savings: With Noah Fant now in the fold, Dissly’s deal is looking more and more like it could be a one and done situation. Seattle can free up $3M by moving on before March 19th ($6.15M if designated Post June 1st).

Nick Boyle (BAL, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.315M (+$5.9M)

Potential Savings: Boyle’s cap number jumps up $6M from this year to next. While a restructured deal can certainly fix this, it stands to reason that the Ravens will look to turn this spot over, freeing up $7M of cap.

Gerald Everett (LAC, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $8M (+$4M)

Potential Savings: It could be a big year for Everett in a showtime Chargers’ offense, putting his $4M cap increase in extension potential instead of release likelihood. LA can free up $5.5M by moving on next March.

Cameron Brate (TB, 31)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $4.985M (+$2M)

Potential Savings: The Bucs keep finding value in keeping Brate around at the $4M or so mark. That’s exactly where he’ll be next season as well. Tampa Bay can free up $2M with an early release, or $4M as a Post 6/1 designation.

Durham Smythe (MIA, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $4.25M (+$1.5M)

Potential Savings: If Mike Gesicki leaves for free agency, Smythe’s 2023 financials will represent decent value (for lesser production of course). If the Dolphins need to trim cap, there’s a hefty $3.5M to be found here.

Nick Vannett (NO, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $3.365M (+$1.6M)

Potential Savings: Vannett has slipped to 3rd on the Saints’ TE depth chart, behind youngster Adam Trautman, and Taysom Hill (who’s already fully guaranteed thru 2023). It stands to reason that the annually cap tight Saints will take the $3M+ savings here next March.

Offensive Line

Laremy Tunsil (HOU, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $35.2M (+$17.5M)

Potential Savings: It’s not often 28 year old left tackles are thrown to the curb, and it’s not likely that’s the case here next March, but a major cap increase, a bad team, and a regime that didn’t trade for this player, all signify question marks. Houston can free up $18.5M with a trade or release - but an extension is still much more likely.

Tyron Smith (DAL, 32)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $17.6M (+$100k)

Potential Savings: The injuries may have piled up too much for Dallas to consider moving forward with Smith. A Pre June release can free up $9.5M, while a Post 6/1 designation opens up $13.6M.

Taylor Lewan (TEN, 31)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $14.8M (+$200k)

Potential Savings: Lewan was a bubble player heading into 2022, so it’s a lock to put him back here again, especially with $14.8M to be saved.

David Bakhtiari (GB, 30)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $29M (+$15.6M)

Potential Savings: Injuries have kept him off of the field far too much since re-upping back in 2020. With a $9.5M roster bonus due March 19th, Green Bay will have to decide early on his future. A Pre June 1st release opens up $5.9M, while a Post 6/1 designation means $17.4M saved.

Andrus Peat (NO, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $18.3M (+$10.7M)

Potential Savings: Peat hasn’t lived up to the billing since re-upping back in 2020. While that hasn’t stopped the Saints from restructuring the contract twice, there’s still a decent out after 2022 if needed here. A Post 6/1 designation opens up $11.825M of cap next March.

Graham Glasgow (DEN, 30)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $14M (+$7.8M)

Potential Savings: Glasgow was the 47th ranked Guard last year according to PFF, but everything about the Broncos should look better in 2022. Still, he’s slated for a backup role on the OL right now, so the $11M to be saved makes the most sense.

Defensive Line

Robert Quinn (CHI, 32)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $18.2M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Quinn holds 2 years, $27M non-guaranteed on the deal after 2022, and is a fringe trade candidate, likely release candidate to start the year. A Pre June 1 release can free up $9.7M, $14M if designated Post 6/1.

Carl Lawson (NYJ, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.3M ($0)

Potential Savings: Lawson’s first year in NY was derailed by injury. He’ll need a big 2022 to stick going forward as the Jets can free up $15M.

Frank Clark (KC, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $30M (+$16.7M)

Potential Savings: Clark’s restructure to stay in 2022 was always going to be a one year situation. If the Chiefs want to keep him around, they’ll blow this up for a new contract as soon as possible. If the plan is to move on, KC can open up a whopping $21M of cap space.

Arik Armstead (SF, 28)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $23.3M (+$13.8M)

Potential Savings: Armstead posted a great 2021, and will be a key to their defense again for 2022. While it’s unlikely SF opts to move on, a new contract for Nick Bosa might make for difficult decisions. There’s $16.7M of cap to be opened up with a Post 6/1 trade or release here.

Roy Robertson-Harris (JAX, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.1M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: If the Jags progress like many think they can in 2022, ruffling a lot of feathers on the starting lineup won’t be popular. With that said, there’s $7.8M of cap to be freed up here if needed.

Michael Brockers (DET, 32)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $11.9M (+$2M)

Potential Savings: Despite playing 16 games last year, Brockers was rated as the #103 interior defender according to PFF. The Lions are starting to progress, so upgrades in areas like this will be key to that momentum continuing. Moving on from Brockers frees up $10M next March.

Linebackers

Deion Jones (ATL, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $18.4M (-$1.6M)

Potential Savings: The Falcons shopped Jones heavily this summer, to no avail. With no guarantees built into 2023, he's a lock to fall off of the roster this spring, freeing up $13.1M of cap.

Khalil Mack (LAC, 31)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $27.4M (+$18.65M)

Potential Savings: The Chargers gave up a 2nd round pick to bring Mack in this spring, so ideally they'd love to get two years out of him. With no guarantees remaining on the deal (aside from $5.5M early roster bonuses each year), LA will have plenty of space to restructure as needed, but if things turn sideways, there's $18.4M of cap to clear with a release.

Eric Kendricks (MIN, 30)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $11.4M (-$2.1M)

Potential Savings: Kendricks has been a consistent player for the Minnesota defense and should be considered an extension candidate before a trade/release one. But if the latter becomes the decision, the Vikings can free up $9.5M.

C.J. Mosley (NYJ, 30)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $21.4M (+$16M)

Potential Savings: The guarantees on Mosley's massive deal expire after 2022, putting this contract on immediate notice. A sizable restructure this summer upped the 2023 dead cap to $14.9M, but a Post June 1st release designation can still free up $17M of cap for the Jets.

Zach Cunningham (TEN, 27)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $13.75M (+$9.7M)

Potential Savings: Cunningham was claimed off of waivers in Mid-December, and remains a fixture in the Titans' starting lineup. If Tennessee starts to blow things up a bit, they'll may consider the $9.25M of cap to be freed up via trade/release as a part of that reset.

Secondary

Eddie Jackson (CHI, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $17M (+$2M)

Potential Savings: With no early guarantees or bonuses, the Bears can move on from Jackson next spring or summer, freeing up $7.5M immediately, or $13.1M as a Post 6/1 designation.

William Jackson (WSH, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.75M (+$1.95M)

Potential Savings: Jackson has a $2.5M roster bonus due March 17th, so the Commanders will need to decide early on this one. An immediate release means $6.75M saved, while a Post 6/1 designation opens up $12.75M.

Ronald Darby (DEN, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $13M (+$150k)

Potential Savings: Darby might be the weak link in the Broncos secondary right now. That’s less about him, and more about how much firepower Denver has here. The Broncos can open up $10M of much needed cap in moving on.

Darius Slay (PHI, 31)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $26M (+$15.9M)

Potential Savings: Slay’s not going anywhere, but a $16M jump in cap from this to next year says his contract is. He’s a slam dunk restructured extension candidate unless the wheels fall off over the next 4 months.

Adoree' Jackson (NYG, 26)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $19.4M (+$10.2M)

Potential Savings: Jackson’s major jump in cap, and a Giants team still shedding contracts, signifies a breakup could be possible. He’s talented enough to warrant an extension, but the Giants may not be in the right window to do that. An early spring trade can open up $9M of cap space.

As fantasy drafts finalize approaching the real Week 1, a quick dive into players we'll be watching extra closely this season (fantasy and real), as they may be playing themselves into big pay raises next spring.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

Unmatched fantasy ceiling potential, should be motivated to put up huge regardless of the offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen entered the league as similar prospects but Buffalo has done much more to develop JA as a passer via scheme, supporting cast, offseason adjustments etc. The Ravens offensive personnel and scheme is almost identical to when Jackson debuted in 2018. It’s fair to wonder where he’d be developmentally if in a different situation.

Spotrac True Value Stat Ranks:
2019: QB1
2020: QB3
2021: QB6

With this said - Lamar doesn't need to prove anything else on the field to ensure a big payday. He's holding his foot down to normalize Deshaun Watson's contract, something no other QB has been able to do as of yet. If he doesn't give in, there may very well be a $45M tag in his immediate future.

Baker Mayfield (CAR)

This is simply a bet on the player returning to (2018-2020) levels rather than the version we saw in 2021. Recurring shoulder injuries derailed his season and a deteriorating situation in Cleveland solidified his exit. Now, a fresh start in Carolina should have Mayfield motivated to prove he’s still a starting caliber QB. The division isn't nearly as competitive as some others, and there are paths to success here if you squint hard enough. If he does bounce back, it’s hard to see Carolina letting him leave after the season considering they’ve scrambled at QB since Cam Newton left. There's a world where we're projecting a franchise tag for Mayfield in a few months.

Also: Jalen Hurts (PHI), Ryan Tannehill (TEN), Geno Smith (SEA)

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (TEN)

Tennessee sweetened his 2022 pot a bit ($2M more cash, $5.2M less cap), further increasing his 2023 cap hit to $15.75M. In other words, something is going to give after the upcoming season. If he's still same ole Derrick Henry come Christmas, a restructured extension becomes extremely likely.

Aaron Jones (GB)

Jones' cap hit increases from $5.9M this year to $20M next year. There's also $16M cash built into the 2023 season, including a $7M roster bonus due in early March. With AJ Dillon chomping at the bit for a full-time role, the Packers may already have a trade/release built into Jones' future. But with Davante Adams gone, it stands to reason that the Packers offense can utilize Jones in a variety of ways for all three downs. If he has the year many expect him to, there will be pressure on Green Bay to flex this contract.

Also: Saquon Barkley (NYG), David Montgomery (CHI), Tony Pollard (DAL)

Wide Receivers

Juju Smith-Schuster (KC)

Set up for a potential monster year as the top WR in a high upside Chiefs offense with minimal target competition. Turns only 26 in November, should be in the midst of his prime. Recency bias makes us overlook his breakthrough 111/1426/7 sophomore season and he posted 97 catches, 9 TDs in 2020. Recent down years coincided with Ben Roethlisberger's decline. I’ll attribute Juju's lack of production to a limited offense led by a 40 year old quarterback rather than an actual decline in skills.

He signed a total ‘prove it’ deal (1yr/$3.76m) and I expect him to shatter that ROI. Early favorite to lead our 2023 TVS among veteran WRs. With that said, it's rare for a player to accept a $4M contract, then jump up to $25M in a matter of months. Teams pay what plays accept themselves at. He's probably on a Robbie Anderson/Corey Davis financial path from here out.

DJ Chark (DET)

Another bet on talent, buy low in a new situation with a ‘prove it’ contract (1yr/$10m). Former 2nd rd pick in 2018 (61st overall). Intriguing size/speed profile that never completely translated in underwhelming Jacksonville offense outside of 1,000 season in 2019. Again, I’ll give the player a pass and blame his lack of production on the situation (Bortles, Foles, Minshew, Urban Meyer). One could argue his current QB Jared Goff is only marginally better but offense showed competence in 2021. The Lions were 30th in yards per play allowed in 2021 and defense barely improved. Team should get into plenty of shootouts which sets up nicely for fantasy production. If this leads Chark to breakout performance, could enter 2023 FA as the most coveted WR on the market.

Allen Lazard (GB)

Lazard doesn’t have the typical profile or production of a receiver that gets a big contract. This is simply about opportunity and potential production in a contract year. Davante Adams departure leaves a huge target void that will get filled by an unproven group of receivers. Enter Lazard who played a mostly ancillary role in recent years but filled in as WR1 whenever Adams missed time and has shown clear chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. I expect Rodgers to lean on him early and often which could lead to career highs. Lazard already feels like the worst value 2023 FA WR contract.

Also: Marquise Brown (ARI), Jacobi Meyers (NE), Mecole Hardman (KC), Parris Campbell (IND)

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox (BUF)

Developmental TE who emerged as a high end red zone threat in 2021. Will need strong follow up performance to prove it wasn’t a fluke. TDs will likely regress but obvious chemistry with Josh Allen and plenty of primetime visibility should boost him into both high production and league popularity. Both pay well.

Foster Moreau (LV)

Talented TE stuck behind Darren Waller, who should see a new contract announced once he returns to full health. He should see more opportunities in Josh McDaniels' two TE offensive sets, and could play himself into a bit of an overpay on the open market (Jonnu Smith, Hayden Hurst, etc...)

Also: Dalton Schultz (DAL), Mike Gesicki (MIA), T.J. Hockenson (DET)

Julio Rodriguez expectedly became the latest young MLB star to cash in on a massive contract extension, locking down a (very complicated) deal with the Seattle Mariners. The deal has so many layers, we’re not even exactly sure how to label it in terms of length or total value, but we’ll try to do just that here.

The Base Value Guarantee

Rodriguez nabs a $15.3M signing bonus, due to be paid completely in the next 2 months. His $700,000 base salary for 2022 remains unchanged, as this extension doesn’t financially kick in until the 2023 season.

Before we get into the conditionals built into this contract, the next 7 years are fairly cut and dry. Julio will see $119.3M in base cash from 2023 - 2029, starting with $4M next season, $10M in 2024, then $18M through 2029.

Rodriguez was lining up for arbitration years in 2025-2027, which will now pay out $54M. For reference, Aaron Judge is finishing off three years of arbitration that paid him $37.6M.

The 8th Season Options

Here’s where things get wild. At the end of the 2028 season, the team involved (presumably still the Mariners) will need to decide on how the 2nd chapter of this contract operates - and some of the metrics are now completely out of their hands.

The Club Option
The team option for 2030 comes with a mixture of lengths and values based on Julio Rodriguez’s finish in the MVP race over the next 6+ seasons. These conditionals break down as such:

• If he doesn’t receive a single Top 10 MVP vote from 2022-2028, the club option will be for 8 years, $200M, paid out $25M per year.
• If he receives 2 Top 10 MVP votes (but no wins) from 2022-2028, the club option will increase to 8 years, $240M, paid out at $30M per year.
• If he receives 4 Top 10 MVP votes (but no wins) from 2022-2028, the club option will increase to 8 years, $260M, paid out at $32.5M per year.
• If he wins 1 MVP & receives 1 other Top 5 vote OR receives 3 Top 5 votes (but no wins) from 2022-2028, the club option will increase to 8 years, $280M, paid out at $35M per year.
• If he wins 2 MVPs OR receives 4 Top 5 votes (but no wins) from 2022-2028, the club option will increase to 10 years, $350M, paid out at $35M per year.

In other words, if this guy is as good as advertised, he’s not going anywhere for the next 16-18 seasons - contractually speaking.

The Player Option
If the next 7 seasons aren’t as electric as anticipated, and the club declines whatever version of option is placed in front of them in 2028, a player option will kick in. Here’s how that works:

• By default, the player option portion of this contract chimes in at 5 years, $90M from 2030-2034, paid out at $18M per year.. This figure can escalate based on All-Star selections and Silver Slugger awards.
• If he combines for 8 All-Star selections + Silver Slugger Awards through 2029, the player option will increase to 5 years, $100M, paid out at $20M per year.
• If he combines for 10 All-Star selections + Silver Slugger Awards through 2029, the player option will increase to 5 years, $110M, paid out at $22M per year.
• If he wins 1 MVP & is selected to 2 All-Star rosters, the player option will increase to 5 years, $125M, paid out at $25M per year.

Potential & Predicted Total Value

To break things out into simpler terms, there’s a small world where this is simply a 7 year, $119.3M extension. This would mean the Mariners have declined the club option, and J-Rod in turn declines his player option, rendering him a free agent before the 2030 season.

On a maximum level, this contract can rise to 18 years, $469.3M, the longest and most expensive deal in the history of the sport.

What’s our objective guesstimation as to where things go here? Despite seeing very little of J-Rod, there are a few moving pieces in our future that could align nicely for his financial future. Many believe that Aaron Judge will soon leave the Yankees, with the San Francisco Giants very much on his board. The looming sale of the LA Angels could mean that either/or both of Mike Trout & Shohei Ohtani’s futures are very much in question. If the Red Sox can’t find an identity quickly, will Rafael Devers force his way out of town - with the Dodgers/Mets very much in the mix.

In other words, more than a few extremely notable AL MVP candidates could very likely be in the National League in the next few seasons, opening up even more potential for J-Rod to secure Top 10, Top 5, or actual MVP nods. We’ll take an aggressive approach here, and project that he’ll win 1 MVP, and finish Top 5 one other time in the next 7 seasons, putting him in line for an 8 year, $280M tack on to the $119.3M, or 15 years, $399.3M in total value.

For Luxury Tax Purposes

For CBT purposes, the Mariners will take on a $17.4M tax salary for Julio Rodriguez over the next 7 seasons. This number is derived from the $119.3M due from 2023-2029, + the default $90M player option from 2030-2034. This is the minimum amount of money Julio Rodriguez can be guaranteed to himself (without the team having to decide in his favor). That $209.3M over 12 years gets you the $17.4M AAV, or tax salary.

Once we get to 2030, the tax salary is subject to change based on the option decision, and the value of that particular option.

The No Trade Clause

In lieu of these conditionals, Julio Rodriguez was able to negotiate a full no-trade clause for the duration of this contract. This is an extremely rare add-on, especially when considering Rodriguez’s age & experience, but it aligns with Mike Trout, who garnered a full no trade clause in his 2nd contract with the Angels, when he was just 23 years old. Fernando Tatis Jr. was able to secure a full no trade clause for the first 8 seasons of his 14 year contract, with limited trade protection thereafter.

Additional Award Bonuses

In addition to the MVP, All-Star, & Silver Slugger conditionals noted above, Rodriguez stands to cash in annually if he’s rewarded in many of the standard categories.

MVP
In addition to the escalation it gives the club option, Julio will cash in an extra $150,000 per league MVP he wins.

World Series MVP
$100,000

LCS MVP
$50,000

Silver Slugger or Gold Glove
$50,000

All-Star Selection (original ballot)
$25,000

The Mariners’ Financials

When diving into our Multi-Year Payroll view for Seattle, we now find 8 veteran contracts for a combined $80M in tax. There are 9 active roster players eligible for arbitration and 4 still in pre-arbitration status for 2023. Tack on Chris Flexen’s likely club option ($4M), and the Mariners are at 22 players already, in good tax shape (2023 carries a $233M tax threshold).

The majority of Seattle’s pending free agents are role players (Adam Frazier, Mitch Haniger,  Carlos Santana, Curt Casali), while the entire starting rotation is under control or contract for next season.

In other words, this fringe 2022 playoff team (still very likely to sneak in), will at least be much of the same version of themselves next year, and with a few properly pushed buttons in the offseason (or a major swing for Ohtani) could vault themselves into legitimate AL contention.

And now their cornerstone piece is under contract, indefinitely.