The 2018 NBA Draft class is eligible to sign Rookie Scale contract extensions this offseason. Each player has until late-October to agree to an extension. If no agreement is reached, the player will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2022. A handful of players are ineligible to sign an extension, because they had team options declined at some point during their Rookie Scale contract.

By pick, here’s where things stand for each player. For those who have already signed an extension, we’ll remind you of the terms. For the rest, we’ll make a prediction on what happens before the late-October extension deadline.

Related: Spotrac's NBA Extension Tracker

1. Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns

   
   Ayton was a huge part of the Suns making the 2021 NBA Finals. He’s come a long way since his rookie year on both ends of the court. The floor for Ayton was set by Jarrett Allen getting a five-year, $100 million contract from the Cleveland Cavaliers. If Allen is worth $20 million a year, Ayton has to feel good about getting a max deal.
   Prediction: five years, $172.5 million, no options

2. Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings

   
   Bagley hasn’t stayed healthy throughout his first three years in the NBA. That, more than anything else, is what will keep him from getting paid. The Kings will only offer extremely team-friendly terms, and that’s not worth it for Bagley. All the potential is still there, but he has to put it together. That means a prove-it season in 2021-22.
   Prediction: No extension

3. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

   
   Doncic already got the richest Rookie Scale contract extension in NBA history. It’s well-earned too, as Doncic has been terrific since coming to the NBA. He’s poised to be an annual MVP candidate and will eventually sign a Designated Veteran extension down the line too.
   Prediction: Already signed a five-year, $207 million extension, player option in 2026-27

4. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies

   
   This is where it gets interesting for the 2018 class. Jackson has been really good, but he’s only been slightly healthier than Bagley has been. The difference is that Jackson has been a good defender and a top-tier shooter over his three seasons. As a 6’11’’ 4/5, that’s great value in today’s NBA. Look for Memphis to do what they can to keep Jackson in the fold, but to not overpay, given his injury history.
   Prediction: four years, $88 million, no options

5. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks

   
   Young inked a deal that could end up looking exactly like Doncic’s does. Whereas Doncic has already qualified for the bump to the second salary tier, Young needs to make All-NBA again to get there. Don’t bet against him.
   Prediction: Already signed a five-year, $172.5 million extension with a player option in 2026-27, will jump to $207 million if Young makes All-NBA in 2022.

6. Mo Bamba, Orlando Magic

   
   Bamba hasn’t been healthy, nor very good for the Magic. He’s struggled with the speed of the NBA game and only rarely flashes potential befitting his draft status. Orlando doubled-down on the position by acquiring Wendell Carter Jr., which may signal where Bamba stands moving forward.
   Prediction: No extension

7. Wendell Carter Jr., Orlando Magic

   
   Orlando acquired Carter at the 2021 trade deadline in exchange for Nikola Vucevic. Carter looked pretty good with the Magic, in a 22-game sample at the end of last season. He’s never fully shown the skills that earned him Al Horford comps, but there is still plenty of potential there. The Magic love to lock up their own players, when they can. Don’t expect anything different with Carter. They just need it to be team-friendly enough to make it worth it.
   Prediction: four years, $48 million, no options

8. Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers

   
   Sexton is a really interesting case. Because he’s been on bad Cavs teams, a lot of people probably missed him averaging 24.3 points per game on 47/37/81 shooting splits last season. Sexton also dished out a career-high 4.4 assists per game. He’s not just a gunner who puts up meaningless numbers. The question is: What’s that worth to the Cavs, who also have Darius Garland as a smaller point guard and Isaac Okoro as a two-guard?
   Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded before the extension deadline

9. Kevin Knox, New York Knicks

   
   Knox showed a lot of potential at his first Summer League in 2018. Since then, it’s all kind of gone downhill. He’s shot just 37% for his career and could barely get off the bench in his third season. Knox needs a change of scenery to try to jumpstart his career.
   Prediction: No extension

10. Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns

    
    As bad as Knox as bad, that’s how good Bridges has been for the Suns. Bridges is already a high-end defender and his shot has developed faster than anyone could have foreseen. Phoenix is in a tricky spot. They already paid Devin Booker and Chris Paul, as well as a few role players. Ayton is probably going to push for a max deal. Will the Suns pony up for Bridges too?
    Prediction: four years, $90 million, no options

11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander , Oklahoma City Thunder

    
    Gilgeous-Alexander got the non-superstar version of the full max extension. He got five years and max money, but no player option at the end. That feels fair, considering he’s shown to be All-Star-level player, but hasn’t quite popped just yet.
    Prediction: already signed a five-year, $172.5 million extension with no options

12. Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets

    
    Bridges had somewhat of a breakout season with the Hornets in 2020-21. The issue for Bridges is that he’s caught in somewhat of a crowded frontcourt. If Charlotte is willing to give him $15 million a year, Bridges should grab it. Anything less, he should bet on himself landing a bigger deal next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

13. Jerome Robinson, Free Agent

    
    Robinson never found his footing in the NBA and was waived by the Washington Wizards near the end of the 2020-21 season.

14. Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets

    
    It’s only been two seasons, but Porter has already shown why many considered him to be a top prospect in 2018. A back injury caused Porter to slide in the draft, and then he also missed his rookie season. Since then, he’s shown all the potential that everyone loved. Porter is already a dominant scoring option. He averaged 19 points on 54/45/79 shooting in his second season. He’s also a solid rebounder and a willing defender. Denver is going to pay to keep their talented forward, because Porter is an ideal fit with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Look for this deal to come in shy of the max, but maybe with some incentives to get it to the max.
    Prediction: four years, $100 million, no options

15. Troy Brown Jr., Chicago Bulls

    
    Brown has been flashing potential, but flashes don’t get you an extension. At least not one Brown should sign. The hope is that with a bigger role on a playoff team, Brown can show what he can do and get paid as a free agent.
    Prediction: No extension

16. Zhaire Smith, Free Agent

    
    Smith didn’t even really make it to the third year of his Rookie scale deal. The Philadelphia 76ers traded him to the Detroit Pistons in a salary dump, and he was subsequently waived.

17. Donte DiVincenzo, Milwaukee Bucks

    
    DiVincenzo looked like he was on his way to a potential extension before getting hurt late in the 2020-21 season. The Bucks went on to win the title without him, and DiVincenzo now has some catching up to do. His ability to handle the ball, pass and shoot makes him a good fit with the Bucks big three. Milwaukee would do well to get him on a relatively team-friendly deal, even if it adds to the tax bill. They just don’t have anyway to replace DiVincenzo if he were to leave.
    Prediction: four years, $60 million

18. Lonnie Walker, San Antonio Spurs

    
    Walker has shown improvement in his first three seasons. The challenge for him is that the Spurs have a loaded backcourt, and Walker isn’t really big enough to play at small forward. This one will go to restricted free agency.
    Prediction: No extension

19. Kevin Huerter, Atlanta Hawks

    
    Huerter has gone from interesting prospect to key rotation player for the Hawks. In some ways, Huerter’s ascendency has matched that of Atlanta’s. He’s a solid defender and a good ball-mover and shooter. That makes him an ideal fit next to Trae Young. But Atlanta just paid Young and John Collins, a summer after spending a bundle in free agency. Look for the Hawks to let this one play out and decide between Huerter and Cameron Reddish as the big guard alongside Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
    Prediction: No extension

20. Josh Okogie, Minnesota Timberwolves

    
    Okogie is Minnesota’s best wing defender, but that’s sort of like being the best Marvel villain not named Thanos: It’s not saying much. More importantly, Okogie is the third or fourth player in a rotation of players who are best as shooting guards for the Wolves. On an increasingly expensive team, he’s not getting a new deal.
    Prediction: No extension

21. Grayson Allen, Milwaukee Bucks

    
    The Bucks acquired Allen on the cheap this offseason. That’s a great depth move for Milwaukee, but with Donte DiVincenzo ahead of him in the pecking order, Allen’s not getting an extension.
    Prediction: No extension

22. Chandler Hutchison, San Antonio Spurs

    
    The Spurs acquired Hutchison by jumping in to help facilitate the Russell Westbrook to the Los Angeles Lakers trade. It’s not a lock Hutchison makes the roster out of training camp, so forget an extension of any sort.
    Prediction: No extension

23. Aaron Holiday, Washington Wizards

    
    The Indiana Pacers moved Holiday off to Washington in part because he was extension-eligible. Indiana has better guards, but Washington’s mix is a little conducive to regular playing time for Holiday. That’s not going to get him an extension though. But if Holiday plays well, look for a new deal next summer with the Wizards.
    Prediction: No extension

24. Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers

    
    Simons became a pretty deadly shooter last season, as he knocked down 42.6% from behind the arc. That has value for a Portland team that is short on depth. The question comes with how much more money the Trail Blazers want to invest in another guard. They’re already playing Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Norman Powell a combined $366 million. Now, if Lillard was moved in a trade…
    Prediction: No extension

25. Moritz Wagner, Orlando Magic

    
    Wagner is not eligible for an extension, because he was waived by the Boston Celtics during the 2020-21 season.

26. Landry Shamet, Phoenix Suns

    
    Shamet has bounced around during his first few years in the NBA. The Suns picked him up for some guard depth behind Devin Booker, but he’s not getting extended. Phoenix has more important extensions to handle first, and that leaves Shamet without an extension.
    Prediction: No extension

27. Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics

    
    Brad Stevens acted early, and somewhat set the market, when he inked Williams to a four-year extension worth up to $54 million. That deal is set up well to protect Boston if Williams continues to have injury issues, as he has for the first three years of his career.
    Prediction: Already signed a four-year extension worth between $48 and $54 million with no options

28. Jacob Evans, Free Agent

    
    Evans was traded a couple of times before being waived by the New York Knicks before the 2020-21 season.

29. Dzanan Musa, Free Agent

    
    Musa was traded from the Brooklyn Nets to the Detroit Pistons before being waived prior to the 2020-21 season. He played for Anadolu Efes in Turkey last season.

30. Omari Spellman, Free Agent

    
    Like his former teammate Jacob Evans, Spellman was traded a couple of times and was waived by the New York Knicks early in the 2020-21 season.

2021 NBA free agency has largely come and gone. There were in excess of 120 deals agreed to, several extensions and around 20 or so trades. There were no real league-changing moves made, but several teams set themselves up to make runs at the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. The NBA feels as wide-open as it has in quite some time. That should make for an interesting season. As a means of reviewing the action that happened, and some questions to still be answered, here are Five Lists of Five. We picked five topics that interest us and went over five items within each topic.

Five Best Value Contracts

Chris Paul and Cameron Payne – Phoenix Suns: The Suns pulled a bit of a shocker, given their history, and spent money to keep their team together. And they did so in a really smart way. Sure, Chris Paul signed a four-year, $120 million contract, but Phoenix is on the hook for only $75 million guaranteed. If Paul’s play falls off, the Suns can move on relatively cheaply. If he’s still good, they’ll happy pay him $30 million per season. Getting Payne back for $19 million over three years is a great value, one that is made even greater when it came out the final season is only $2 million guaranteed. Phoenix has their point guard position covered for at least a couple more seasons.

Bobby Portis – Milwaukee Bucks: Portis took one of the biggest hometown discounts around. He re-signed with the Bucks using his Non-Bird rights, which gave him only a modest pay bump over last year. That allowed Milwaukee to use the Taxpayer MLE to sign George Hill. Every little bit helped to keep the tax bill down for the champs.

Richaun Holmes – Sacramento Kings: We’ve all made “KANGZ!” jokes, but this was one of the best moves any team made this summer. Holmes was neck-and-neck with Jarrett Allen for the best center on the market and the Kings kept their guy for less than half of what Allen got from the Cleveland Cavaliers. Considering a handful of playoff contenders had cap space and a hole at center, Sacramento did really well to get Holmes back for the full amount his Early Bird rights could get him.

Nicolas Batum, Reggie Jackson and Kawhi Leonard – LA Clippers: The Clippers had challenges in front of them this offseason with limited ability to re-sign Batum, Jackson and Leonard to the contracts they all earned. LA knocked it out of the park with each deal, like hitting back-to-back-to-back homeruns. Batum came back on the modest bump in pay his Non-Bird rights got him. The Clips used Jackson’s Early Bird rights to bring him back on a great contract. And getting Leonard to agree to a long-term deal vs a 1+1 contract was another win. Look for LA to sign Leonard to an extension two years from now, which will make his contract in effect a seven-year pact. That’s good work in both the short and long-term.

Dennis Schroder – Boston Celtics: Every offseason a free agent is left standing without a chair when the music stops. This year that was Schroder. As both money and rotation spots dried up, Boston was able to snag Schroder for just the $5.9 million Taxpayer MLE. Schroder is far from perfect, and he’ll probably leave after just one season, but the Celtics needed some scoring punch and a point guard. At some point, the talent becomes too good to pass up compared to the cost.

Five Biggest Head-scratching Contracts

Zach Collins – San Antonio Spurs: This one doesn’t look as bad as it could have, but it’s still fairly baffling. Even though the Spurs are giving Collins only about $11 million guaranteed out of his three-year, $22 million contract, that still feels like an overpay. Collins hasn’t been healthy for two years, and he got hurt again while rehabbing this offseason. Who exactly was San Antonio bidding against here?

Maurice Harkless and Terence Davis – Sacramento Kings: Neither of these deals is overly egregious on their own. But together they look odd and offset the value signing of Richaun Holmes to some extent. The Kings essentially tossed away $8 million in combined salary to two replacement-level backups. That’s wasted spending.

DeMar DeRozan – Chicago Bulls: This contract is probably fine for this season. It’s probably even fine for 2022-23. $28.6 million in 2023-24, in what will be Year 15 for DeRozan when he’s 34 years old, already looks bad. And that’s assuming the first two years go fine.

Gary Trent – Toronto Raptors and Normal Powell – Portland Trail Blazers: We’re lumping these two together, because they were traded for each other. At the time, it looked like Toronto got the better end of that deal. $18 million per year for Trent isn’t even all that bad. It just seems unnecessary. They like to play Fred VanVleet off-ball a good amount, already have OG Anunoby inked long-term at the three and drafted Scottie Barnes. If Trent becomes a bench player, this is an overpay. As for Powell, it’s more about the future years. When he’s in his early-30s, is he going to be worth $20 million? And is this re-signing the move that convinces Damian Lillard that the Trail Blazers are on the right path? It also locked Portland into a lot of three-guard lineups that will never defend well enough to be a real contender.

Daniel Theis – Houston Rockets: This one isn’t about Theis. Not even a little bit. He’s worth an average of $9 million a year, and Houston has a team option on the last year. But the Rockets already have Christian Wood. They drafted both Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba. And Kenyon Martin Jr. looks like a blossoming big man prospect. For this year, Theis is fine. His presence lets the kids grow at their own rates. But what’s the long-term plan here?

Five Contender Questions

What happens with Ben Simmons? We’re roughly a month or so from training camp opening. Philadelphia has shopped Simmons everywhere. So far, their asking price remains high. Will the Sixers ask come down? Will another team come up? The best bet is meeting in the middle, but who that trade partner will be remains a mystery.

What are the Mavericks, Pacers and Trail Blazers doing? All three teams are sort of stuck in the middle. None did a whole lot this offseason, not for this year or setting up for the future. Are they all really content to run it back for the most part?

Will the Lakers on-the-fly rebuild work? Los Angeles revamped their roster by a large amount. They’ve got at least eight new faces, and they still have three open roster spots. You also might have heard that a lot of those players are older. And that’s before we even get into the odd fit of Russell Westbrook with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Who plays center for the Nets? Presumably this will be Blake Griffin again, but getting through 82 games and then a two-month playoff run holding down the middle is a big ask. Will DeAndre Jordan re-emerge in the rotation? Can Steve Nash trust Nicolas Claxton enough to give him big minutes? This is the Nets one weakness and it’s one that opponents will try to exploit nightly.

Do the Heat have enough depth? Miami made the big move by adding Kyle Lowry. They also added P.J. Tucker. And they re-signed a bunch of their own free agents, including Duncan Robinson. The starting five looks terrific, and Tyler Herro should be fine as the sixth man. After that, it looks really shaky. The Heat have a little bit of their MLE left. Look for that to be used on an in-season addition of some sort.

Five Roster Battles to Watch

Wizards Power Forward: Washington added a lot of guys, mostly in the Russell Westbrook trade. After all their moves, the Wizards have at least four players whose best position seems to be at the four. And that’s with plugging in Montrezl Harrell as the backup five. How will Wes Unseld Jr. find enough minutes for Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija? The last two will probably play a lot at small forward and that’s come with mixed results thus far.

Timberwolves Shooting Guard: Minnesota mostly sat out the offseason, minus a tax avoidance trade of Ricky Rubio to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Taurean Prince. The tricky part was that trade took the only true point guard off the roster. D’Angelo Russell will slide over and play the one primarily. That’s actually good, because Minnesota has more than enough pure shooting guards. In order to find enough minutes for Anthony Edwards, Malik Beasley and Josh Okogie, someone will have to play out of position as a smaller-than-ideal three. And that’s before we even consider throwing any minutes towards salvaging Jarrett Culver.

Memphis Grizzlies and Atlanta Hawks: File this one under “Good problems to have”. These two teams are in the same boat. They both have a lot of talent and go at least 12 deep in rotation players. For Atlanta, they have some older players that they can spot rest days for. Memphis has a lot of guys who need minutes to continue their development.

Kings Center: Richaun Holmes should play a lot. It’s the limited minutes behind him that are a mess. Sacramento acquired Tristan Thompson as a veteran backup. That’s fine, but they also signed Alex Len to fill the same role. And, to this point, Marvin Bagley has generally looked his best at the five. That’s going to leave Luke Walton going big when everyone else goes small.

Spurs Guards: It sounds good to have a lot of guards and wings in today’s NBA. That is until you have too many. San Antonio now has six players who are best at either point guard or shooting guard. A couple can slide up and play some three, but for the most part these guys are all true guards. That’s going to leave a few young players on the bench and missing out on key development time.

Five Teams with Disaster Potential

Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are significantly more interesting than they have been in a long time. Zach LaVine is a true star. Nikola Vucevic is perennially underrated. DeMar DeRozan has had a rebirth as a playmaking small-ball four. Lonzo Ball’s shooting has improved enough that he can play off-ball without worries now. It’s that last part where things could get messy for Chicago. Too many guys have to play off-ball. LaVine and DeRozan are high-usage players. Vucevic needs touches to get in rhythm. Ball is better than ever as a spot-up shooter, but still needs the ball a lot to make the most of his skills as a passer. Add to it that youngsters Coby White and Patrick Williams are trying to establish themselves, and you have a potentially explosive mix. And not in a good way.

Philadelphia 76ers: This one is pretty simple. The Sixers really can’t bring Ben Simmons back and just expect everything to be fine. There were some harsh things said in the aftermath of Philadelphia’s playoff ouster. If Daryl Morey can’t find a workable Simmons trade, the locker room mix for the 76ers could get toxic really quickly.

Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard hasn’t formally requested a trade yet, but that seems like it’s coming any day now. When asked about it at the Olympics, Lillard clearly wasn’t happy with the team’s offseason work. If he forces a trade now, Portland could be stuck with a “best available offer” situation. That’s a tough spot to be in with your franchise player.

San Antonio Spurs: How are they going to find enough time for all their guards? Are the bigs good enough to support the backcourt talent? Is there enough shooting? What’s the long-term plan here? After a playoff streak that lasted for two decades ended a couple of years ago, the Spurs have a lot of questions and not very many answers.

Oklahoma City Thunder: This one is cheating a little. OKC is going to be bad this season, and it’s by design. But the plan of amassing draft picks can only go so far. They traded out of the Alperen Sengun pick to get yet another future first and that already looks like it was a mistake. The Thunder couldn’t flip Kemba Walker for more picks and bought him out. They tried hard to trade up in the draft, but teams weren’t interested in offers that included multiple future first round picks. Fans can be patient in a rebuild, but it’s important that you don’t keep kicking the can down the road. And it’s really important that you don’t kick the can so far down the road that you can’t find it again. Oklahoma City is right on the border of taking this too far.

The presence, and absence, of a handful of players with the recently announced 2020-21 All-NBA teams has major financial ramifications for upcoming and future contract extensions.

The 2020-21 All-NBA Teams:

First Team

• Nikola Jokic
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Kawhi Leonard
• Stephen Curry
• Luka Doncic

Second Team

• Joel Embiid
• Julius Randle
• LeBron James
• Damian Lillard
• Chris Paul

Third Team

• Rudy Gobert
• Jimmy Butler
• Paul George
• Bradley Beal
• Kyrie Irving

Luka Doncic, G, DAL

Let’s start with Luka Doncic. By virtue of being named to an All-NBA team for the second consecutive year, Doncic now qualifies for the Designated Player Rookie Extension. We previously covered all of the options for Doncic last week. Here’s the projected extension starting at 30% of the 2022-23 cap that Doncic is now in line to sign:

• 2022-23 - $34,735,800
• 2023-24 - $37,514,664
• 2024-25 - $40,293,528
• 2025-26 - $43,072,392
• 2026-27 - $45,851,256
• Total – 5 years, $201,467,640

(Note: Doncic will complete the fourth and final year of his Rookie Scale contract during the 2021-22 season. This extension would start with the following season in 2022-23.) Because of Doncic’s stature in the league, it’s likely he’ll have a player option on the fifth year of his new deal. And he’ll probably have a 15% trade bonus added in there too.

Because Doncic made All-NBA in both 2019-20 and 2020-21, he is no longer dependent on being honored for 2021-22. A player must make All-NBA or win Defensive Player of the Year in either the two seasons that preceded the most recent season or in the most recent season (or win MVP in any of the three preceding seasons) to qualify for a Designated Player Extension. Since Doncic made it in 2019-20 and 2020-21, he’s now qualified for the Designated Player Rookie Extension no matter how his 2021-22 season goes.

Bam, Fox, Mitchell, & Tatum

Sticking with Designated Player Rookie Extensions, a quartet of players did not make All-NBA and thus did not qualify for the jump from 25% to 30% of the cap (or anywhere in-between). Bam Adebayo, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum all were eligible to bump to 30% of the cap in first-year salary in their extensions had they made All-NBA. Fox wasn’t a realistic candidate to make All-NBA, but Adebayo had a case and Tatum and Mitchell were both certainly deserving. In the case of Tatum, he narrowly missed out on his second straight All-NBA nod.

As it stands now, each player will have a projected extension structure of:

• 2021-22 - $28,103,500
• 2022-23 - $30,351,780
• 2023-24 - $32,600,060
• 2024-25 - $34,848,340
• 2025-26 - $37,096,620
• Total – 5 years, $163,000,300

Both Tatum and Mitchell have player options on their fifth years, while Adebayo and Fox are straight five-year contracts.

Had any of the quartet been named to All-NBA, they would have been eligible for a projected first-year salary of $33,724,200 and a total salary of $195,600,360 over the life of their deals. That’s a difference of $5,620,700 in 2021-22 and $32,600,060 over the full run.

Joel Embiid, C, PHI

As for the Designated Player Veteran Extension, Joel Embiid has now qualified to sign under this criterion. Embiid’s current deal is scheduled to run through 2022-23. This offseason, the 76ers could tack on four additional years to Embiid’s contract via the Designated Player Veteran Extension beginning in 2023-24 at 35% of the cap. That would give Embiid a projected contract structure of:

• 2021-22 - $31,579,390 (current contract)
• 2022-23 - $33,616,770 (current contract)
• 2023-24 - $42,551,250 (Year 1 of Designated Player Veteran Extension)
• 2024-25 - $45,955,350
• 2025-26 - $49,359,450
• 2026-27 - $52,763,550
• Total – 6 years, $255,825,760

That’s a lot of money to lay out, given Embiid’s injury history and the fact that he’ll turn 33 years old during the 2026-27 season, but Embiid is the NBA’s best two-way center and has gotten more serious about his conditioning this year. It’s probably worth the gamble to keep one of the league’s most talented big men happy and in the fold in Philadelphia.

Luka Doncic just finished his third NBA season and his second appearance in the NBA playoffs. After bowing out in six games against the LA Clippers in 2020, Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks fell to the Clippers in seven games in 2021. It’s hard to pin it on the third-year star however. In his 13 career playoff games, Doncic has averaged 33.5 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 39.2% from behind the arc. For good measure, Doncic has also averaged 8.8 rebounds and 9.5 assists per playoff game.

Naturally, the next question about the 22-year-old Doncic is: What are his options are to leave Dallas for greener pastures?

Wait…what?

Such is life in the NBA. If players don’t produce right away, they’re busts. If they don’t make the playoffs by year two or year three, they’re "good stats, bad teams" guys. If they make the playoffs, but don’t produce they’re “82-game players vs 16-game players”. If they make the playoffs, produce but don’t win, it’s time to think about where they’ll play next. Fair or unfair, that’s sort of how this works.

There’s usually a caveat though. Most times, players make it to their second contract before the conversation about leaving town starts. But most players aren’t already as big of a star as Luka Doncic has become just three years into his career.

Recently, on his eponymous podcast, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons asked a version of “What if Luka Doncic turns down an extension from the Mavericks and takes the Qualifying Offer? What would the numbers look like for something like that?”

Here at Spotrac, we’re going to lay those numbers out for you, while also going over the pros and cons of each decision Doncic could make.

Let’s start with the fact that Doncic is under contract with Dallas for the 2021-22 season for the fourth year of his Rookie Scale deal. Anything we talk about from here on out will start with the 2022-23 season, when Doncic is eligible for a new deal.

Luka Doncic's Current Contract with the Mavericks

Luka Doncic's Next Contract Options

• Option 1 - Sign a standard Rookie Scale extension for the 25% of the cap max
• Option 2 - Sign a Designated Rookie extension for the 30% of the cap max
• Option 3 - Sign an offer sheet with another team as a restricted free agent
• Option 4 - Sign the Qualifying Offer with Dallas and become an unrestricted free agent in 2023

There is a fifth option where Dallas doesn’t extend Doncic a Qualifying Offer and he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2022, but that’s such a ludicrous scenario, it’s not even worth considering.

(Note: All figures based on a projected salary cap for 2022-23 of $115,786,000)

Option 1: Standard Rookie Extension (25%)

This one is probably out of the mix, because Doncic will very likely qualify for the Designated Rookie extension. It’s highly unlikely he’d turn that down to take less money. But for posterities’ sake, here’s what a standard Rookie Scale max extension would look like for Doncic:

Now, for Doncic to take this extension, he’d have to either:
A. Want to give the Mavs a discount
B. Not qualify for the Designated Rookie extension.

Given that Doncic is a virtual lock to make his second straight All-NBA team, he’ll qualify for the Designated Rookie extension. That leaves Doncic manually electing to give the Mavericks a discount, and, let’s just say, that isn’t happening.

Option 2: Designated Rookie Extension (30%)

Option 2 is the most likely outcome, given that Doncic himself recently said with a smile “I think you know the answer,” when asked about signing the Designated Rookie extension. Here’s what that extension would look like

It’s highly likely, given his stature, that this extension would include both the maximum of a 15% trade bonus and a player option for Year 5. This would match the extension structure that Jayson Tatum, a player of similar caliber to Doncic, signed with the Boston Celtics. To date, no player who has qualified for a Designated Rookie extension has failed to sign one.

Option 3: Sign an Offer Sheet

Option 3 falls behind Option 1 on the likeliness scale. Again, Doncic has made it clear his intention is to re-sign with Dallas. But, for posterities’ sake once again (and in the unlikely case where things go south in the next couple of months), let’s look at what Doncic could do as a restricted free agent.

Players only qualify for a fifth year and 8% raises with their incumbent team. If they sign elsewhere, even via an offer sheet, they are limited to four years and 5% raises. And, because he wouldn’t be signing under the Designated Rookie caveat, Doncic would be limited to a first-year salary of 25% of the cap. Here’s what that contract would look like:

As you can see, simple economics tells you why this is so unlikely. Doncic would be sacrificing anywhere from $43 million to $77 million in total salary. That’s not happening. You also have to factor in that Dallas would almost assuredly match any offer sheet Doncic would sign. Or, in the case that the Mavericks were amenable to a sign-and-trade, this is the max money Doncic could get.

Simply put, Doncic will likely sign for the maximum amount, likely the Designated Rookie extension. Then, while on that 5-year, $201 million deal, he’d force a trade a couple of years in if he was that unhappy in Dallas.

Option 4: Play Out the Rookie Contract

Now, what Bill Simmons proposed is that Doncic simply forgoes an extension and bypasses the restricted free agency process entirely. This would mean Doncic would sign the Qualifying Offer of $13,348,801 for the 2022-23 season, play out the season and enter unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2023.

To date, no player has willingly signed the Qualifying Offer and turned down anything even approaching a max extension. On occasion, a lesser-rated player has played out the year on the Qualifying Offer, but never after turning down multiple years of big, guaranteed money. Examples of this are Greg Monroe and Rodney Hood, who both signed the Qualifying Offer, and played out the year, before becoming unrestricted free agents.

It’s fair to note that as Rookie Scale contracts have grown in conjunction with a rising cap, that Qualifying Offers have also grown. Gone are the days of high picks having relatively low Qualifying Offers. However, as noted above, even with the lowest starting max salary, Doncic would sacrifice over $15.5 million in 2022-23. And that’s before any of the guaranteed money for the three-to-four years following.

So, why would a player consider this approach? One, it gives them full control after one year. They’d still be largely limited to deals that max out at four years and 25% of the cap, but the choice of destination would be their own. Here’s how taking the approach of signing the Qualifying Offer and then a new four-year deal would work out for Doncic:

So, assuming Doncic wants out of Dallas and doesn’t want to deal with the hassle of a trade and is ok giving up some money, he’d sacrifice over $57 million in guaranteed money. That’s not going to happen.

However…it opens an interesting case. The route of taking the Qualifying Offer and then signing a new max deal as unrestricted free agent a year later isn’t worth passing up the Designated Rookie extension. As we stated above, a player would just force a trade a year or two into the extension.

But, if a player didn’t qualify for the Designated Rookie extension, the difference between the Qualifying Offer plus new deal vs standard max extension is “only” $23.8 million. Is that enough to have control over the team you want to play for?

Bonus Option: Multiple Mini Extensions

Another option, one that hasn’t come up anywhere, would be to sign the Qualifying Offer, then sign a two-year or two-plus-one deal with your team for the max. That would then put the player in the mix to be a free agent after Year 7, when they qualify for the mid-tier, 7-9 years of experience maximum. Here’s what that type of deal could look like:

This still falls well short of the Designated Rookie extension amount. It’s even still $8 million short of the standard max extension amount. But the player would have full control over their destination not once, but twice in a relative short period.

It’s probably easy to see why no option beyond signing the Designated Rookie extension works for Luka Doncic. It’s should also be clear that signing the Qualifying Offer creates a host of potential complications and involves a heavy amount of betting on one’s self to stay worthy of a max contract.

For a player to take the Qualifying Offer route, he’d have to be miserable with the team that drafted him. So much so that he wouldn’t even want to go the route of forcing a trade while on an extension. Or, he’d have to be a player who isn’t quite a max player. Think of someone like John Collins. He’d be giving up a good deal of money to take either of the Qualifying Offer routes present above. But a player like Collins could eventually make that up, if he performs to the level he believes he’s at as a max player.

You also have to factor in endorsement money and if the player is moving from a small market to a big market. That can make up some of the money given up in salary. In that case, freedom of movement may be worth it.

Eventually a non-max extension player is going to bet on himself by going the Qualifying Offer route. It’s just not going to be Luka Doncic, or anyone up for a max extension.