Kyler Murray’s expected contract extension came in where we expected it to come in. The 7 year contract comes with 5 new years, $230.5M in new money. Of that, $104.3M is fully guaranteed at signing, $134.2M guaranteed by March 2024, and early vesting salaries through the 2027 season. What does it all mean? We’ll try to debrief the deal as much as possible here.

The $46.1M Average Salary

Love it or hate it, most of the NFL world still uses the average salary as the bragging point for a shiny new contract. In Murray’s case, his $46.1M AAV keeps him well behind Aaron Rodgers’ $50.2M, but $100,000 ahead of Deshaun Watson for 2nd place.

But unlike Watson, Murray’s deal isn’t a ripped up brand new contract, or a full guarantee, so we need to dive deeper to dissect this figure.

Over the full 7 years ($266M), the contract carries a $38M AAV. For comparisons, Josh Allen’s 8 year deals comes in at $35.5M per year, Patrick Mahomes’ 12 year contract comes in at $39.8M per year, Matthew Stafford’s 5 year deal comes in at $36.6M per year, and Aaron Rodgers’ 5 year deal comes in at $37.3M per. So in the grand scheme of things, a $38M AAV over 7 seasons is to be considered top of the market.

However…

The Cash Flow

Kyler Murray will see $30M in 2022, a $25M pay raise from previous contract year. That $30M of Year 1 cash ranks 10th among active QB contracts, but it’s $10M more than Josh Allen received in his first new contract season, and $19.1M more than Mahomes scored in 2020. Watson’s contract comes with an even $46M cash per year.

Through Year 2, Murray will have reeled in $69M, 8th among active quarterback contracts, $2M more than Allen, $36M more than Mahomes. Watson will (could) have earned $92M through two years on his contract with the Browns.

Through Year 3, Murray will earn at least $107.85M, 5th among active quarterback contracts, $13M more than Josh Allen, $44M more than Patrick Mahomes, $30M less than Deshaun Watson.

Murray remains 5th through Year 4 ($140.45M), 2nd through Year 5 ($183M) and 1st through Year 6 ($219.3M).

The however noted above comes in the 7th year of this contract, where Murray is slated to earn a non-guaranteed $46.35M, the highest cash compensation on this contract, and a bit of “fluff” added to the backend to ensure the originally noted $46.1M AAV came in as such.

Cumulative Quarterback Contract Rankings

The Guarantee Structure

Deshaun Watson aside ($230M), Kyler Murray’s contract is the 2nd highest guaranteed deal in NFL history, each from a fully guaranteed at signing standpoint, and in terms of practical/injury locks.

By putting pen to paper, Murray has officially locked in $104.3M of cash:

• $29.035M signing bonus
• $965,000 2022 salary
• $2M 2023 salary
• $36M 2023 option bonus
• $1M workout bonus
• $35.3M of 2024 salary

The contract remains somewhat dormant until March of 2024, when another $29.9M becomes fully guaranteed:

• $11.9M 2025 roster bonus
• $18M 2025 salary

In March of 2025, $36.8M of his 2026 salary fully guarantees.
In March of 2026, $19.5M of 2027 salary fully guarantees.

That’s 6 seasons of early vested compensation, an extremely rare sighting in the NFL. 

The Cap Structure

The Cardinals added about $1.3M of salary cap in 2022 per the Murray extension (I had previously reported a significant cap decrease, but made an error in failing to bring over proration from the rookie contract).

2022: $12.6M
2023: $16M
2024: $51.8M
2025: $45.6M
2026: $55.5M
2027: $43.5M
2028: $46.3M

The surprising number here is the $16M hit in 2023. Generally these large contracts include a bloated 2nd year, with a restructure baked into the cake. By going with a double bonus structure (signing bonus in 2022, option bonus in 2023), they’ve already built the dead cap in, and will take on a significant amount of cap savings for the 2023 year. Murray’s 5th year option was set to carry a $29.7M cap/cash hit. Arizona now chops off $13.7M of cap in 2023.

So the restructure most likely comes in 2024, where $35.8M of a $37M base salary can be converted to signing bonus. This can drop the 2024 cap hit from $51.8M down to $23.1M ($28.7M saved). This would mean updated cap hits of:

2024: $23.1M
2025: $52.7M
2026: $62.7M
2027: $50.7M
2028: $53.5M

With early guarantees built in all the way down to 2028, and just $7.1M of dead cap now sitting in that final season, it’s safe to assume that the Cardinals can restructure this contract at least two times without punishing themselves too much by its conclusion.

The Protection Bonuses

Kyler Murray’s contract contains an abnormal amount of offseason and per game protection.

• $50.7M tied to March roster bonuses
• $9.315M tied to workout bonuses
• $4.25M tied to per game active bonuses
• $2M tied to training camp bonuses

For comparisons, Patrick Mahomes has $0 in per game active bonuses, and $5.6M in workout bonuses over an 11 year period. Josh Allen has $0 in per game active bonuses, and $5M in workout bonuses over a 7 year period.

Obviously the per game bonuses can be money lost for Murray should injuries come into the fold, but the other elements of this contract are very much pro-player. Where many traditional contracts contain a year 1 signing bonus, a March roster bonus here or there, and simple P5 base salaries, Murray will have a chance to cash in multiple times in each calendar year. In most cases, he’ll receive a March bonus, a summer workout bonus, an in-season salary, and additional bonuses for games active. 

Additional Incentives

In addition to the above, Murray’s contract contains the opportunity to add $7.5M more in unlikely to be earned incentives. These break down as a maximum $1.5M per year, including:

• $750,000 if he compiles 600 yards rushing & 6 rushing touchdowns in a given regular season.
• $750,000 if he’s active for 70%+ of regular season snaps, AND, 70% of NFC Championship snaps, & his team wins the NFC Championship game.

Concluding Thoughts

Did Deshaun Watson’s contract impact the final draft for Kyler Murray’s extension? Our immediate response would be, no. If anything, this is simply a cap adjusted version of Josh Allen’s contract, with better cash flow, slightly better guarantees at signing, and $10M more of practical guarantees. The guarantee mechanisms in Murray’s contract resemble only Patrick Mahomes, as no other player has an early vesting salary that carries 6 seasons. Josh Allen’s early guarantees end in 2025, making his contract a 5 year, $164.5M deal for practical purposes.

In Murray’s case here, the early trigger in 2027 means this is a 6 year, $219.3M contract for practical purposes. It’s a huge haul for a player that has faced about as much criticism as he has praise through 3 NFL seasons, including a Wild Card loss in his single playoff appearance.

With cash being dispensed all over the year on this contract, there’s very little room for an out. But the double bonus (plus likely 2024 restructure) will also mean quite a bit of dead cap left with Arizona should they look to bail out and trade Murray at some point in the next 3-4 years.

Like it or not Cardinals’ fans, this is a contract constructed to stay for the long-term. 

With training camps approaching, we'll categorize the more notable NFL positions into "financial tiers", breaking down which players are locked in, playing for a new deal, could be on their way out, & plenty more.

• FOUR FOR FOUR
• THREE & WE'LL SEE
• LET'S PLAY TWO
• ONE & DONE
• WHO BLINKS FIRST
• THE BRINKS TRUCK IS EN ROUTE
• HANGING ON FOR DEAR LIFE
• MAKE IT OR BREAK IT (UP)
• LET'S GIVE IT A MINUTE

Four for Four

Four Quarterbacks possess a contract that contains stability through the 2025 season, giving them four years of practical guarantee.

Kyler Murray (Cardinals, 25)

Signed Through: 2028
Guaranteed Through: 2027
Guarantee Remaining: $160M

Murray's deal would be surprisingly strong for the best quarterback in football, so for a guy who's shown signs, but hasn't yet put together a full season of top tier play, it's a bit of shocker. It'll be extremely hard for Murray to not see $215M+ out of this contract through 2027 based on guarantee structure.

Deshaun Watson (Browns, 27)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2026
Guarantee Remaining: $230M

Love it or hate it, the fully guaranteed multi-year QB contract is here. Watson stands to forfeit $57,500 per week missed this year due to suspension (yes, really), unless he’s given a full-year ban. If it’s the latter, his contract will toll, setting up Cleveland for a huge financial benefit in 2023, as his cap hit next year will drop from $54.9M, to $10M.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs, 27)

Signed Through: 2031
Guaranteed Through: 2025 (ish)
Guarantee Remaining: $149M

Mahomes’ contract has early guarantee triggers through 2030, making it extremely difficult for the Chiefs to maneuver around it. We’ve identified 2025 as a line of demarcation because it’s the final year where the guarantee mechanisms reduce from two years ahead to just one (2025 compensation guarantees in 2023, but the 2026 compensation doesn’t guarantee until 2025). The Chiefs opted not to restructure his contract again this year, keeping the dead cap “tenable” in 2025/2026. There’s still no easy out here, but KC is at least giving themselves a chance to sustain financial stability through the middle of this deal (when Mahomes will likely ask to rip it up and start anew).

Josh Allen (Bills, 26)

Signed Through: 2028
Guaranteed Through: 2025
Guarantee Remaining: $144M

To say that Allen’s deal is a 5 year, $164M contract practically speaking is to call it quite a value for the Bills, who will enter 2022 as the odds on favorites. Allen will lock in $47M this year thanks to the double bonus structure in his deal, but his $16M cap hit ranks 44th in the NFL, and 2nd on the Bills. Buffalo would like to see this contract run through at least the 2026 season, leaving 2 years, $81.5M (non-guaranteed) to restructure when Allen will be just north of 30 years old. There’s another massive deal in his future.

Matthew Stafford (Rams, 34)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2025
Guarantee Remaining: $152M

Talk about a perfect storm scenario, Stafford’s 2021-22 couldn’t have been scripted any better, putting him in line for what had to be a top of the market contract. While the $40M AAV doesn’t set any records, and the $63M guaranteed at signing seems paltry in comparison to others, Stafford will see $61.5M cash this year, a $57M guarantee next March, and it minimum, $120M through 2024. There’s a chance LAR is paying him $10M to leave town for 2025, but they’ll cross that bridge when they get there.

Three & We’ll See (Kind Of)

It was tempting to put this contract in the “one and done” tier, but while Green Bay trading Rodgers after 2022 is possible, Aaron leaving $110M on the table doesn’t seem so.

Aaron Rodgers (Packers, 39)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $150M

There’s a lot to unpack with this contract, but the easiest takeaway is if Rodgers wants to play football for the 3 seasons, he’ll see $150M cash - no ifs ands or buts. Here’s the issue. Because the contract contains a 2022 signing bonus, a 2023 option bonus, and a 2024 option bonus, there’s bonus proration splattered all over it, which in turn becomes dead cap for the Packers. If Rodgers remains in Green Bay through 2024 (41 years old), the Packers will be staring at $76.8M of dead cap on the contract to start 2025. The contract does allow for tradeability after the 2022 season, if that becomes a thing again.

Let’s Play Two

Cousins, Ryan, & Prescott all have two more years fully guaranteed on their deals, with Kirk leading the way at a $70M payout.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $70M

Short and sweet has done Kirk Cousins just fine over the past decade. The 34-year-old has averaged $21M cash per year over the past 6 seasons, and will cash out $40M & $30M respectively over the next two - fully guaranteed.

Matt Ryan (Colts, 37)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $53.9M

The Colts tweaked Ryan’s deal a bit upon acquiring him from Atlanta, bumping up his compensation slightly, and guaranteeing the bulk of his next two seasons, the practical window of contention for this Indy squad. Ryan’s career earnings will vault to $321M at contract end.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys, 29)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $51M

Dak slow-played himself into a quick and dirty $126M. His $31M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, locking him in securely for the next two seasons. It’s a 1 year, $34M “option” for 2024, with a restructured extension prior to it the more likely outcome.

One & Done

For a variety of reasons, these players will be playing out 2022 with the prospect of joining the QB Carousel next March.

Tom Brady (Buccaneers, 45)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $15M

How many retirements is too many retirements? Brady will earn a total of $30M in 2022, half of which comes from his previous signing bonus. The current contract carries $35.1M of dead cap in the 2023 (void years), but an extension prior to the void can reduce that down under $11M. The $30M to be made this year raises his career earnings past $332M on the field.

Ryan Tannehill (Titans, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $29M

The Titans put the writing on the wall with their securities about Tannehill going forward when they refused to restructure his NFL leading $38.6M cap hit this spring. It’s clear that their QB1 is on a year to year showcase, and that the only thing keeping him in the fold this season, is the $29M salary that became fully guaranteed in March of 2021. Tennessee can free up almost $18M of cap space next year to move on.

Carson Wentz (Commanders, 30)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $28.3M

Washington gave up three draft picks for the right to pay Wentz $28M+ this season, but this doesn’t need to be a “one and done” situation. If we’re playing glass half full here, should the Wentz/Washington marriage work out, a 3 year, $81M contract for a veteran QB1 certainly has value. $9M of his 2023 compensation locks in early next March, so we’ll know quickly how things will proceed after 2022. There’s $0 dead cap on the deal going forward ($26.1M savings next season to move on).

Derek Carr (Raiders, 31)

Signed Through: 2025
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $24.9M

We’re just being fair to the structure here. Carr’s new contract contains just $24.8M fully guaranteed at signing, all in 2022. Another $40M is set to lock in next March, but until then, Las Vegas will have a legitimate out (if say, a certain Green Bay QB is trying to get out again). With that said, Carr was able to build in a full no-trade clause in this deal, putting him at least in charge of where his next destination might be, if anywhere.

Jameis Winston (Saints, 28)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $15.2M

It’s unclear if Winston will be healthy enough to start Week 1, but at some point this season, he’ll be given a chance to win this job back for the immediate future (so says his contract). $5.8M of his $12.8M compensation in 2023 guarantees in early March, so if he’s not the guy, this will be a quick hook.

Marcus Mariota (Falcons, 29)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $6.75M

Mariota gets another attempt to showcase his starting QB abilities, and there are worse offensive situations to be dropped into. A tight end heavy, mobile quarterback friendly offense could really match well with a seasoned Mariota, despite Atlanta projecting to be one of the worst teams in all of football this year. A $3M roster bonus next March will be a sticking point for 2023.

Mitchell Trubisky (Steelers, 28)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $5.25M

We’re projecting Trubisky to win the QB1 spot over Kenny Pickett out of the gate, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold serve for 18 weeks. His $6.2M compensation for 2022 aligns with high-end backup pay, so Pittsburgh isn’t reaching in any regard to take this shot.

Daniel Jones (Giants, 25)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $4.2M

Despite a vote of confidence from the new regime, Daniel Jones saw his $22.3M option for 2023 declined this May, putting him on an expiring rookie contract in New York. The Giants seem poised to give him every opportunity to prove his worth this season, but they also handed out $8M+ guaranteed to Tyrod Taylor this March, including nearly $3M in 2023.

Drew Lock (Seahawks, 26)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Will Sam Darnold, Geno Smith or Jimmy Garoppolo poach the starting gig from Lock prior to Week 1? Maybe, but we’re projecting otherwise right now. Lock seems the perfect candidate to get Seattle through an expedited rebuild/tank this year, putting them in position to select their future QB1 in the 2023 draft. Is the roster too talented to succeed in this fashion? It’s possible, but Seattle may not yet be done subtracting this offseason.

Who Blinks First?

A couple of MVP caliber quarterbacks who can’t seem to get on the same page with their respective teams in terms of their sophomore extensions. Kyler seems likely to get this done by August. Lamar looks more like a 2023/tag conversation.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens, 25)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $23M

Despite plenty of “reports”, the fact of the matter is that a new contract for Lamar Jackson doesn’t currently exist, and it appears that will be the case for the 2022 season. This means that an exclusive franchise tag is likely coming next February, putting plenty of pressure on the Ravens to resolve this. He projects to a 4 year, $176M extension in our system.

The Brinks Truck Is En Route

Big money is coming, will it all be fully guaranteed?

Russell Wilson (Broncos, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

As Matthew Stafford did with the Rams last offseason, Wilson and the Broncos appear poised to play the “one year to settle in” plan before dealing with a new contract. Wilson’s current contract holds $51M through 2023, but none of it is guaranteed. If all goes well this year, the 34 year old projects to a 4 year, $176M extension next offseason.

Joe Burrow (Bengals, 26)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $9.4M

Burrow will become extension eligible for the first time after the 2022 season. If the upcoming season looks anything like 2021 did, the fully guaranteed $50M per year request will send itself. But are the Bengals the type of organization to meet these top of the market demands? There are plenty of scenarios that tell us no. This situation could go from amazing to terrible in a hot minute. With that said, including the no-brainer 5th year option in 2024, Cincy has 3 years of team control ahead of them, even if the new contract noise gets louder and louder by the week.

Justin Herbert (Chargers, 24)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023Guarantee Remaining: $7.2M

Herbert will become extension eligible for the first time after the 2022 season, and while he doesn’t have the team success that a Joe Burrow currently possesses, he has ALL the individual numbers on his side. The 24 year old currently projects to a 6 year, $258M extension, putting him in line with Josh Allen’s recent deal with the Bills. If the other LA team can put it together this year, the sky might be the limit here financially.

Hanging on for Dear Life

Goff can certainly play himself into another season (he has 3 left under contract), while Baker is playing for some kind of contract in 2023.

Jared Goff (Lions, 28)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $26M

Goff threw 19 TDs against 8 INTs in 14 games for the Lions last year, posting a 91 Passer Rating, his highest in 3 seasons. He’s almost certainly not the long term answer for Detroit, but he’ll prove to be an adequate stopgap for the time being. The Lions can walk away from the remaining 2 years, $52.3M after 2022 with a $10M dead cap hit.

Baker Mayfield (Panthers, 27)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $18.8M

No surprise here. Mayfield will compete with Darnold for the starting gig in Carolina (potentially on a weekly basis?). The Panthers will pay out around $4.8M in base pay ($3.5M incentives), while Cleveland takes on $10.5M of retained salary to move on. Does he get Trubisky’ed next year? Franchise tagged? Extended? All are possible.

Make it Or Break It (Up)

While these three quarterbacks have plenty of team control left on their rookie deals, there’s a sense that for Tua & Hurts, the organizations have done all they can to provide them the best “showcase” season possible. If they don’t hold up their end of the bargain, it’s widely expected that their respective teams will look elsewhere going forward. For Mills, he’s a solid prospect, acting as a stopgap in a slow Houston rebuild.

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins, 24)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $8.1M

The Dolphins certainly upped the stakes with Tua’s immediate future status, adding key pieces to every facet of the roster (including Teddy Bridgewater as a QB2). Factor in a creative, offensive-minded coach, and an owner seemingly trying everything to win (Tom Brady, Sean Payton, etc…), and it’s an understatement to say this is a big year for Tua.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles, 24)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Like Tua (above), Hurts has been given plenty of toys to play with offensively over the past two offseasons, and will be firmly in the spotlight as a breakout candidate for 2022. Unlike Tua, Jalen’s rookie contract guarantees have all expired, putting him on a year to year basis through 2023 (no 5th year option available thereafter). 

Davis Mills (Texans, 24)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Mills showed enough late last year to earn the QB1 job for a team going through a slow rebuild right now. But he’ll need to take a leap in 2022 to have a chance to be in the future plans for the Texans. Though his contract holds 3 years, $3.4M left, none of it is guaranteed.

Let’s Give it A Minute

These five quarterbacks are entering year two of their rookie contracts, with a few (Lawrence/Jones) at least starting to be considered for a second deal. It’s a big year for all (maybe excluding Justin Fields in his current climate).

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $12M

While Lawrence racked up plenty of yardage (3,640), the efficiency numbers left plenty to desire (12 TD, 17 INT, 72 rating). But we’ve seen plenty of historic QBs go through rookie campaigns like this, only to break out 12-24 months later. Jacksonville’s aggressive offseason both with the coaching staff and the active roster puts Lawrence on a great path to succeed in 2022.

Zach Wilson (Jets, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $11.5M

Wilson completed 55% of his passes for 2,334 yards and a 70 rating in his rookie campaign, making Jets fans feel extremely Jets-y. The front office combatted that with a big offseason via draft & free agency (including a legitimate run at Tyreek Hill), creating what may be a false optimism, but at least putting Wilson in a better spot than he was a year ago. There’s no reason to sniff a 2nd contract discussion here yet.

Trey Lance (49ers, 22)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $11.3M

We’re projecting Lance to win the QB1 gig over Garoppolo this summer, and that’s about all we can project. The Niners gave up a trade package to select Lance that suggests he’s the next coming of Steve Young in San Francisco, but with Deebo Samuel disgruntled, OC Mike McDaniel now in Miami, and a few offensive lineman questionable still, middle of the road might be the best case scenario here in 2022.

Justin Fields (Bears, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024

Guarantee Remaining: $7.1M

It was a rough rookie campaign for Fields, who threw 7 TDs against 11 INTs for a 73 rating in 12 games. The good news? He’ll have full control of this offense out of the gate. The bad news? There’s a lot of “new” around him, and not much evidence that it’s going to lead to any success. This might very well be a Lamar Jackson type year for Fields, where he’s asked to do everything with his superpowers.

Mac Jones (Patriots, 24)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $6.14M

Year one for Jones saw 3,800 yards, 22/13 TD/INT, a 92.5 rating, and a #11 QB grade from PFF. There’s a ton of optimism, and a few new weapons around him, but with Josh McDaniels departed, there’s still no reason to rush into a $40M conversation.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Starting Pitchers

The AL rotation includes one of its highest paid, an ageless wonder, and plenty of contractual value down the line. Gerrit Cole's $36M salary ranks 2nd only to Max Scherzer, who would have found his way here had he avoided injury. Justin Verlander's return to the mound from injury has been nothing short of spectacular, and he's now only 30 innings away from unlocking a $25M player option for the 2023 season.

Relief Pitchers

While other organizations are paying single relievers upwards of $20M per year (unsuccessfully), the Guardians remain on brand, getting extreme value out of their most important positions. Emmanuel Clase will make $20M over the next 5 seasons to hold down the back end of Cleveland's pen. All of these relievers have considerable team control left.

Positional Starters

Lotta star power here. Judge highlights this list not only because of his production, but also his expiring contract status. Ohtani and Devers aren't far behind, and both have serious question marks about staying with their current franchises. When will the Blue Jays strike financially with Vlad? When will Trout cry uncle with the floundering Angels?

Reserves

Miggy Cabrera and Julio Rodriguez aren't here as gimmicks, they've both had excellent first halfs - despite coming from opposite ends of the career spectrum. Benintendi is one of the top trade candidates this month, and Bogaerts player option next year (plus Trevor Story's recent signing) has many monitoring the Boston offseason as well. Meanwhile, the Astros continue Astro-ing.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Starting Pitchers

Gonsolin and Alcantara have been lights out, and one should be throwing out the first pitch at the LA event. Castillo is a top trade candidate, Musgrove is a top extension candidate, and we may be witnessing a swan song season for Kershaw.

Relief Pitchers

Edwin Diaz has been near unhittable, and yet is quietly heading toward the open market. Bednar and Mantiply will be fielding calls this deadline, and Josh Hader's extension situation in Milwaukee is worth monitoring over the next few months as well.

Positional Starters

A third of these starters could hit the open market this fall, and all but Chisholm are well compensated currently. Contreras is a top trade candidate, Goldschmidt is an MVP candidate, and Trea Turner currently projects to a $32M per year extension.

Reserves

The NL East is well represented here, as the Mets and Braves are putting together a big 2022. Pujols received a special selection, Arenado has already said he won't be opting out, Swanson is almost a shoo-in to hit the open market, and the Juan Soto contract/trade talks will only intensify as the Nationals plummet down the standings.

With the July 15th deadline for teams to extend their tagged players approaching, we’ll assess where things stand with each, including projected multi-year contracts for those still in need.

Already Extended

Cam Robinson (OT, JAX)

The Jaguars left tackle was offered a second franchise in February that valued at $16.6M. Jacksonville bumped that out to 3 years, $54M in April, dropping the 2022 cap hit by $9M, while increasing his cash this year up to $17.75M. It’s a 2 year, $35M contract practically speaking.

Davante Adams (WR, GB/LV)

Adams’ $20.1M franchise tag offer lasted 9 days, as the Packers shipped their star WR to Vegas, who in turn signed the 29-year-old to a 5 year, $140M extension. Adams will now see $23.35M in 2022, and $67.5M through 2024. 

Chris Godwin (WR, TB)

The Bucs didn’t wait around too long to lock in one of Tom Brady’s favorite weapons, extending Godwin out of his $19.1M tag, into a 3 year, $60M contract with $20M cash in 2022, and $40M fully guaranteed through 2023.

David Njoku (TE, CLE)

Njoku finally turned a corner through the second half of 2021, and now seems to have a real place in Cleveland’s offensive mindset. That prompted the Browns to extend him out of the $10.9M tag, into a 4 year, $54.75M contract, including $12.5M cash in 2022. It’s a 3 year, $39.5M deal for practical purposes.

Still on the Tag

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

The Cowboys and their tight end remain far apart on a multi-year extension, putting Schultz in line to play out the $10.9M franchise tag he signed in March. The 25-year-old projects to a 4 year, $58M contract in our system, which would make him the 2nd highest average paid tight end in football.

Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)

Like Schultz, Gesicki may be asked to play out 2022 on the $10.9M tag, as the Dolphins have pumped over $500M in new contracts to their roster. With a cap set to soar in 2023, and Gesicki now surrounded by a lot of offensive talent, playing the long game could very much benefit him financially, though he already projects to a 4 year, $57M deal in our system currently. 

Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, KC)

The Chiefs gave up a lot of draft capital in 2021 to acquire their new left tackle, but there doesn’t appear to be too much rush in locking him in long-term this summer. The two sides have been negotiating, but anything below a $100M over 5 years likely isn’t even worth talking about here. Brown projects to a 5 year, $112M contract in our system. There’s a growing sense that he’ll play 2022 on the $16.6M franchise tag.

Jessie Bates III (S, CIN)

Of all the unsigned franchise tag players on this list, Bates seems the least likely to find a worthy extension offer over the next two weeks. The safety market took a big step forward with deals of $17.6M per year for Jamal Adams, & $18.4M per year to Minkah Fitzpatrick. Bates projects around the $16M mark, putting him in line for 5 years, $80M. The $12.9M safety tag is certainly tenable for Cincinnati from a cap/cash standpoint, but with so many rookie deals dispersed across the roster, it should be a priority to lock in their All-Pro defensive back.

Atlanta Hawks

Acquired Dejounte Murray, PG from the Spurs for 3 first round picks, a 1st round swap, and Danilo Gallinari, PF

Boston Celtics

Juwan Morgan, SF $1.82M option exercised
Sam Hauser, SF, $1.56M option declined

Brooklyn Nets

Signed Nicolas Claxton, 2 years, $20M

Signed Patrick Mills, 2 years, $14.5M

Acquired Royce O'Neale from the Jazz for a 2023 first round pick.

Kyrie Irving, PG, $36.5M option exercised

Kessler Edwards, SF, $1.82M option declined

Patrick Mills, PG, $6.18M option declined

Charlotte Hornets

Hired Steve Clifford as coach on a 3 year contract

Acquired Bryce McGowens, SG from the Timberwolves for Josh Minott and a 2nd round pick.

Jalen McDaniels, PF, $1.93M option exercised

Chicago Bulls

Andre Drummond agreed to a 2 year, $6.6M contract

Tony Bradley, C, $2.04M option exercised

Cleveland Cavaliers

Ricky Rubio agreed to a 3 year, $18.4M contract

Dallas Mavericks

JaVale McGee agreed to a 3 year, $20.4M contract

Acquired Christian Wood, PF from the Rockets for Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss and Wendall Moore Jr.

Acquired Jaden Hardy, SG from the Kings for two seconds round picks

Denver Nuggets

Davon Reed agreed to a 2 year, $4.07M contract

Nikola Jokic signed a 5 year, $270M extension

DeAndre Jordan agreed to a 1 year $2.91M contract

Acquired Peyton Watson, SG and two second round picks from the Thunder for JaMychal Green and a first round pick.

Acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG and Ishmael Smith, PG from the Wizards for Monte Morris and Will Barton

Jeff Green, PF, $4.5M option exercised

Detroit Pistons

Kevin Knox agreed to a 2 year, $6M contract

Marvin Bagley III agreed to a 3 year, $37M contract

Acquired a first round pick and two second round picks for Jerami Grant, PF & Ismael Kamagate 

Acquired Kemba Walker, PG and Jalen Duren from the Knicks for a first round pick.

Acquired Nerlens Noel, C, Alec Burks, SG, two second round picks and $6M cash for future considerations

Cory Joseph, PG., $5.16M option exercised

Hamidou Diallo, SG, $5.2M option exercised

Frank Jackson, PG, $3.15M option declined

Luka Garza, C, $1.56M option declined

Carsen Edwards, PG, $1.82M option declined

Agreed to a buyout with Kemba Walker, PG (estimated $6.4M)

Golden State Warriors

Acquired Ryan Rollins, SG from the Hawks for Tyrese Martin and $2M cash

Houston Rockets

Jae’Sean Tate agreed to a 3 year, $22.1M contract

Acquired Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown , Trey Burke , Marquese Chriss and Wendall Moore Jr. from Dallas for Christian Wood

Acquired TyTy Washington Jr. and two second round picks from the Timberwolves for Wendall Moore Jr., SF

John Wall, PG, $47.3M option exercised

Agreed to buyout John Wall, PG at $40.8M

Jae’Sean Tate, SF, $1.78M option declined

Indiana Pacers

Acquired Kendall Brown, SF from the Timberwolves for a second round pick.

Oshae Brissett, SF, $1.84M option exercised

Los Angeles Clippers

Amir Coffey agreed to a 3 year, $11M contract

Nicolas Batum agreed to a 2 year, $22M contract

Extended Ivica Zubac, 3 years, $32.8M

Nicolas Batum, SF, $3.33M option declined

Ivica Zubac, C, $7.52M option declined

Los Angeles Lakers

Damian Jones agreed to a 2 year, $4.72M contract

Juan Toscano-Anderson agreed to a 1 year, $1.9M contract

Troy Brown Jr. agreed to a 1 year, $1.97M contract

Lonnie Walker IV agreed to a 1 year, $6.48M contract

Hired Darvin Ham as coach to a 4 year contract

Kendrick Nunn, SG, $5.25M option exercised

Russell Westbrook, PG, $47.1M option exercised

Wenyen Gabriel, PF, $1.88M option exercised

Stanley Johnson, SF, $2.35M option exercised

Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant agreed to a 5 year, $193M extension

Tyus Jones agreed to a 2 year, $30M contract

Extended coach Taylor Jenkins 2 years

Acquired Kennedy Chandler, PG from the Spurs for a second round pick and $1M cash.

Acquired Jake LaRavia, PF from the Timberwolves for Walker Kessler, TyTy Washington Jr., and a second round pick.

Acquired David Roddy, PF and Danny Green from the 76ers for De'Anthony Melton

Miami Heat

Dewayne Dedmon agreed to a 2 year, $9M contract

Victor Oladipo agreed to a 1 year, $11M contract

P.J. Tucker, PF, $7.35M option declined

Milwaukee Bucks

Jevon Carter agreed to a 2 year, $4.6M contract

Wesley Matthews agreed to a 1 year, $2.9M contract

Joe Ingles agreed to a 1 year, $6.48M contract

Bobby Portis agreed to a 4 year, $49M contract

Thanasis Antetokounmpo, SF, $1.87M option exercised

Pat Connaughton, SG, $5.73M option exercised

Bobby Portis, PF, $4.56M option declined

Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns agreed to a 4 year, $219M extension

Kyle Anderson agreed to a 2 year, $18M contract

Acquired Walker Kessler, C, TyTy Washington Jr. , and a second round pick for Jake LaRavia

Acquired Wendall Moore Jr., SF from the Rockets for TyTy Washington Jr. and two second round picks

Acquired Josh Minott, PF and a second round pick for Bryce McGowens

Extended Taurean Prince, PF, 2 years, $16M

Naz Reid, C, $1.93M option exercised

Jaylen Nowell, SG, $1.93M option exercised

New Orleans Pelicans

N/A

New York Knicks

Jalen Brunson agreed to a 4 year, $104M contract

Isaiah Hartenstein agreed to a 2 year, $16M contract

Acquired Jalen Duren, C from the Hornets for a first round pick and three second round picks

Acquired three first round picks from the Thunder for Ousmane Dieng, SF

Acquired a first round pick from the Pistons for Kemba Walker, PG & Jalen Duren

Acquired future considerations from the Pistons for Nerlens Noel, C, Alec Burks, a second round pick, and $6M cash.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Mike Muscala agreed to a 1 year, $2.64M contract

Luguentz Dort signed a 5 year, $87.5M contract

Acquired JaMychal Green, PF and a first round pick from the Nuggets for Peyton Watson and two second round picks

Acquired Ousmane Dieng, SF from the Knicks for three first round picks

Derrick Favors, C, $10.18M option exercised

Mike Muscala, PF, $3.5M option declined

Luguentz Dort, SG, $1.93M option declined

Isaiah Roby, SF, $1.93M option exercised

Orlando Magic

Mohamed Bamba agreed to a 2 year, $21M contract

Gary Harris signed a 2 year, $26M extension

Philadelphia 76ers

Trevelin Queen agreed to a 2 year, $3.4M contract

Danuel House agreed to a 2 year, $8.5M contract

P.J. Tucker agreed to a 3 year, $33.2M contract

Acquired De'Anthony Melton, SG from the Grizzlies for Danny Green and David Roddy

Shake Milton, SG, $1.99M option exercised

James Harden, SG, $47.4M option declined

Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker signed a 4 year, $214M extension

Portland Trail Blazers

Gary Payton II agreed to a 3 year, $28M contract

Anfernee Simons agreed to a 4 year, $100M contract

Hired Joe Cronin as GM to a 4 year contract

Acquired Jerami Grant, PF and Ismael Kamagate  from the Pistons for a first round pick and two second round picks.

Sacramento Kings

Malik Monk agreed to a 2 year, $19M contract

Hired Mike Brown as coach to a 4 year contract

Acquired two second round picks from the Mavericks for Jaden Hardy, SG

Trey Lyles, PF, $2.63M option exercised

San Antonio Spurs

Acquired a second round pick and 41M cash for Kennedy Chandler, PG

Acquired Danilo Gallinari, PF, three first round picks and a first round swap from the Hawks for Dejounte Murray

Toronto Raptors

Thaddeus Young agreed to a 2 year, $16M contract

Chris Boucher agreed to a 3 year, $35.25M contract

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG, $1.88M option exercised

Utah Jazz

Acquired a 2023 first round pick from the Nets for Royce O'Neale

Juancho Hernangomez waived

Hired Will Hardy as coach to a 5 year contract

Washington Wizards

Delon Wright agreed to a 2 year, $16M contract

Anthony Gill agreed to a 2 year, $3.44M contract

Bradley Beal agreed to a 5 year, $215.02M contract

Acquired Will Barton, SF and Monte Morris  from the Nuggets for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ishmael Smith

Bradley Beal, SG, $36.4M option declined

1. The Cleveland Browns acquire QB Deshaun Watson

   If I told you a team gave up 3 first round picks, a third round pick, and a fourth round pick for a player, you’d say - wow, that’s a haul. If I then told you that the player received a $230M contract, fully guaranteed at signing, you’d say - is this baseball? If I told you that it was already known prior to that the player would be suspended for a large portion of time upon the signing of the contract, you’d say - wait, what? And then if I told you the team accepted language in the contract that forbids them from recouping money lost due to that suspension, you’d say - this must be the Browns right?
   
   The outcome of this trade is obviously TBD, but the circus makes it the leader in the clubhouse by a factor of ten thousand.

2. The Denver Broncos acquire QB Russell Wilson

   In any normal offseason, this move would have led the charge through the summer. But Deshaun Watson, and the “Summer of the WR” overshadowed the transaction almost immediately after it was processed. That shouldn’t change the potential ceiling that Wilson brings to a “win-ready” roster. Denver and Wilson appear to be taking the Rams/Stafford approach, in that both will give it a year to settle in before a new contract is approached. Wilson holds 2 years, $51M through 2023.

3. The Miami Dolphins acquire WR Tyreek Hill

   It was a toss-up between Hill and Adams as the top WR trade, but based on volume alone, Hill takes the top spot. The Chiefs acquired 5 draft picks for their star WR: A 1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, and 6th. Factor in the 4 year, $120M extension ($72.2M guaranteed), and this adds up to a blockbuster move by the Dolphins.

4. The Las Vegas Raiders acquire WR Davante Adams

   The Dolphins made the Raiders acquisition of Adams look paltry in hindsight. Adams joins the AFC West for a 1st, 2nd, and $65M guaranteed through 2024. The Carr/Adams connection could be a gamechanger for the Raiders, who live in one of the league’s toughest divisions, yet refuse to mail it in.

5. The Indianapolis Colts acquire QB Matt Ryan

   This would be higher (and might be in a few months) if I felt better about the Colts young, unproven passing weapons. It feels like this offense will be about possession, and short yardage progression. With a weak division and a lot of talent, they should walk into the postseason with Ryan at the helm, who holds a 2 years, $54M guaranteed through 2023.

6. The Cleveland Browns acquire WR Amari Cooper

   Two days before the Browns won the Watson sweepstakes, they brought over Cooper from the Cowboys for what now seems like highway robbery - a 5th round pick. Yes, he’s guaranteed $20M this year (most of which has already been converted to a signing bonus), but a healthy Cooper is a runaway WR1 for this roster, and with 3 years, $60M left on the deal, if he works out, there’s value to be had here. If not, they can walk away after 2022 with no additional cash owed. Hopefully he and Jacoby Brissett are working overtime on their chemistry.

7. The Washington Commanders acquire QB Carson Wentz

   Wentz has been one of the most inaccurate and worst decision-making QBs over the past 3 seasons, and yet Washington had no problem trading away a conditional 2nd round pick (2023 3rd round pick becomes a 2nd if Wentz plays 70% of the snaps in 2022) to take on his $28M salary this year. If it works out, then it works out. When it doesn’t, it’ll be back to square one for Washington, and a backup role for Wentz.

8. The Los Angeles Chargers acquire EDGE Khalil Mack

   He might not be able to handle #1 pass rush duties anymore, but a Joey Bosa + Khalil Mack attack should be one of the most dangerous in all of football. Mack has 3 years, $64M left, but there’s an out after 2022 if LAC needs it. The Bears took back a 2nd and 6th round pick to move on here.

9. The Philadelphia Eagles acquire WR AJ Brown

   Anyone with rooting interest here hates that I made this 9th, but Brown has to be great to make this one stick. Or at the very least, he better be markedly better than Treylon Burks, the key pick given up to bring Brown over to Philly (Tennessee also gained a 2022 3rd). Burks gets $14M guaranteed over 4 years, Brown gets $57M guaranteed over 3. I love the “all-in-for-Hurts” move, but it was a home run swing when a bunt could have easily kept the inning alive.

10. The Buffalo Bills acquire QB Case Keenum

    There were a few options to sneak into the top 10, but after losing Mitchell Trubisky to free agency, Buffalo had a big hole behind MVP favorite Josh Allen. It was widely assumed that a reunion with Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Fitzpatrick would suit well, but Buffalo took much more value in their QB2 opening, shipping a 7th round pick to rival Cleveland for a player who at times, outplayed Baker Mayfield in each of the past two seasons.
    
    Not only is this a good handcuff for Josh Allen - it’s a massive loss for Cleveland right now, as they turned around and signed Jacoby Brissett (to a near $5M contract), while also paying Keenum’s $1M roster bonus. Keenum’s experience not only in his 10 year career, but also with this Browns’ offense the past two seasons, would have been essential as a fill-in option for Watson’s pending suspension.

Honorable Mentions

• Hollywood Brown to ARI
• Robert Woods to TEN
• DeVante Parker to NE

Bradley Beal (SG, WAS)

Beal opted out of a $36M player option on June 22nd, putting the pressure on the Wizards to lock him into a long-term contract, or construct a sign and trade package.

Pro: He’s a career 37% from 3, and posted his best season in 2020-21.
Con: He hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season since 2018, and shot a career worst 30% from 3 last year.

Maximum Contract with Washington
Beal is eligible for a 5 year, $247,660,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $42.7M
23-24: $46.1M
24-25: $49.5M
25-26: $52.9M
26-27: $56.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $183,610,000.

James Harden (SG, PHI)

Harden has to decide on a $47.3M player option by June 29th. It’s largely expected that he’ll decline the option in favor of “some” sort of multi-year contract to remain with Philly.

Pro: His 2 80 games with Brooklyn were statistically better than many give him credit for (35% from 3, 51% from 2, 23 points/10 assists in 36 minutes).
Con: He forgot how to play basketball when he joined Philly.

Maximum Contract with Philadelphia
Harden is eligible for a 5 year, $268,853,015 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $46.5M
23-24: $50.2M
24-25: $53.9M
25-26: $57.6M
26-27: $61.4M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $200,063,442.

Kyrie Irving (PG, BKN)

Irving has to decide on a $36.5M player option by June 29th, and we’ve learned to assume nothing with him. There’s a real chance Irving simply opts on, runs it back for 1 more season with KD, then controls his future thereafter. There’s a real chance he opts out, and never looks back. But the most likely outcome is probably in sync with what James Harden will do in opting out, and signing a short-term high-value contract with his current team.

Pro: Irving averaged 27.4 points per game last season - a career high. Tack on 6 assists, and 4 rebounds and he’s still one of the most valuable players in the game.
Con: When he plays.

Maximum Contract with Brooklyn
Irving is eligible for a 5 year, $247,660,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $42.7M
23-24: $46.1M
24-25: $49.5M
25-26: $52.9M
26-27: $56.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $183,610,000.

Zach LaVine (SG, CHI)

LaVine has largely been identified as one of the top available players in this year’s free agent class, as the 27 year old is finishing his sophomore contract in Chicago (no option).

Pro: Over the past 4 seasons, LaVine has averaged 25 points, 5 boards, and 4 assists, while shooting nearly 40% from three.
Con: He had arthroscopic knee surgery this May, so there may be a delay in getting him up to full speed going forward.

Maximum Contract with Chicago
LaVine is eligible for a 5 year, $212,280,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $36.6M
23-24: $39.5M
24-25: $42.5M
25-26: $45.4M
26-27: $48.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $157,380,000.

Jalen Brunson (PG, DAL)

The #33 overall selection from 2018 is hitting the open market on a high-note, as an increased role in 21-22 (32 MPG) saw his production rise considerably across the board. He’s a strong playmaker with good efficiency numbers both from three and inside the arc.

Pro: While the production has increased, it hasn’t risen to a level that should warrant a max contract. Something around 4 years, $100M seems about right.
Con: Potential buyer beware situation? He’s a nice player, but most likely not a franchise savior.

Maximum Contract with Dallas
Brunson is eligible for a 5 year, $176,900,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $30.5M
23-24: $32.9M
24-25: $35.4M
25-26: $37.8M
26-27: $40.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $131,150,000.

Deandre Ayton (C, PHX)

Did the draft hurt or improve Ayton’s chances to find a max contract on the open market? It might not matter. Phoenix is still an excellent team, and should be highly motivated to bring the former #1 overall pick back for a few years.

Pro: A career 25% shooter from 3 finished 21-22 at 37%. His game is still rounding into form (as you might expect for a 23 year old
Con: His current team doesn’t appear ready to max out a big man who doesn’t jump off the screen as an elite superstar. Will anyone?

Maximum Contract with Phoenix
Ayton is eligible for a 5 year, $176,900,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $30.5M
23-24: $32.9M
24-25: $35.4M
25-26: $37.8M
26-27: $40.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $131,150,000.

Miles Bridges (SF, CHA)

He’s gotten better every season, with 21-22 topping out at 20 points, 7 boards, 4 assists and a steal per game. He shoots 50% from the field, 80% from the line, and 35% from three. If Charlotte won’t pay him, multiple teams will offer to.

Pro: He seems to be rounding into a perfect #3 option on a great team.
Con: Despite consistent improvement, he’s not yet progressed to a “max” player, and maybe never will. Charlotte seems rightfully reluctant to overpay.

Maximum Contract with Phoenix
Bridges is eligible for a 5 year, $176,900,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $30.5M
23-24: $32.9M
24-25: $35.4M
25-26: $37.8M
26-27: $40.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $131,150,000.

While Aaron Judge’s next contract will dominate the baseball world in the coming months, there’s a much more complicated conversation soon coming to a MLB hot stove near you: the financial future of Angels’ SP/DH Shohei Ohtani.

The 2021 American League MVP posted 26 doubles, 46 home runs, 100 RBIs, and a 158 OPS+ in 155 games last year. Oh and by the way, he also added a 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 156 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched to go along with it.

At the time of this piece, Ohtani is on pace to finish 2022 with 27 doubles, 39 home runs, 102 RBIs, and an OPS+ in the 140s. On the mound, his rest of season projections view him as a 3.45 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, with 157 strikeouts. While the total package of 2022 may not match or exceed that of last season, it’s still one heck of a two year resume to bring to the negotiating table.

Is there a chance Ohtani’s 2021 season was a peak? It’s certainly possible. Will the almost 28 year old’s ability to stay near the top of the league on both sides of the field continue to diminish from here out? Maybe. MLB simply doesn’t have a comparable player in the modern game to compare him to. He’s walking down his own path right now, which makes deciding on, and subsequently valuing him, for the next 5-8 years, all the much more difficult.

The Timeline

Shohei is under contract for 2022 at a $5.5M salary, and holds another year of arbitration eligibility for 2023 - we’ll get to the latter in just a minute.

Will the Angels make the soon to be 28-year-old an offer he can’t refuse? Is Ohtani dead set on following the likes of Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, and many others into the open free agent market before signing new?

For now, free agency appears to be the plan, which then leads to another question: How long will the Angels hang on for dear life? The Nationals kept Bryce Harper until the very end, capturing a compensatory draft pick (that was later forfeited with the signing of Patrick Corbin). The Astros held onto Gerrit Cole until the very end, as did the Dodgers with Corey Seager, and the Braves with Freddie Freeman - to name a few recent scenarios.

The Red Sox famously moved on from Mookie Betts just prior to the final year of his arbitration, as did the Guardians with SS Francisco Lindor, and the Orioles with SS/3B Manny Machado

The obvious differences here? Teams with legitimate contention chances are perfectly fine keeping their stars for as long as possible, and punting on any sort of blockbuster prospect trade return. Winning cures all.

Well the Angels haven’t done a lot of winning, and the 2022 season doesn’t appear to be any different in this regard. If the wheels completely fall off again this year, and more players are shipped out in the coming weeks, will the conversation turn away from “extension value” and toward “trade value” this fall?

The Marketability

The global appeal is obvious. But Ohtani is a star both in Japan & in America. One year ago this week, Forbes reported that Shohei Ohtani led all active baseball players with a $6M off-field endorsement portfolio. Ohtani had locked in accounts with the likes of Fanatics, Oakley, & Topps here in the US, while also securing partnerships with Asics, JAL Airlines, and Seiko Watch internationally. With this said, his team at CAA has been vocal about how "picky" the 27 year old is with his brand and how its promoted, meaning he's for certain leaving money on the table annually.

But will this continue? Winning cures all, and a move to a franchise with big dollars, and World Series chances will only ampligy Ohtani's ability to cash in both on and off the diamond.

The Extra Roster Spot

As of June 19th, MLB has (finally) adopted a roster limitation rule, stating that teams can now carry a maximum of 13 pitchers on their active roster at any time. The rule was initiated to stop teams from loading up on bullpen arms down the stretch, furthering the chance to elongate games with specific matchup changes.

An “Ohtani Clause” was implemented when the rule was created, stating that players who dual as a batter/pitcher with this kind of frequency will not count against the 13 pitcher list. This allows the Angels to carry an extra arm on a regular basis (though it doesn’t appear to be winning them many more ball games).

The Injury Conversation

Ohtani missed a month in his 2018 rookie year due to a sprained UCL in his elbow. The setback limited him to just 10 pitching starts that year, and led to surgery in 2019 that kept him off the mound entirely that following season.

With that said, Ohtani has been reliable as an everyday hitting option, making 800 plate appearances in his first two seasons, and over 600 last year. He’s on pace for nearly 700 in 2022 barring an unexpected absence.

Sadly, elbow surgeries to starting pitchers have become nearly as commonplace as peanut butter with jelly. However, the recovery rates from these injuries have made remarkable strides, with many candidates often finding more success at the MLB level after reconstructive operation.

It would be unfair to classify Shohei as “injury prone” right now. But a discussion about how his risk for injury going forward may be greater than all other MLB players is fair, based on the usage rate his dual-position role offers.

Will teams be afraid to go as long term on this contract than they would with a traditional one position player? 

Finding Ohtani’s Market Value

Any previous rules used to statistically value a player’s market need to be ripped up and started anew for Ohtani. He’s not just a part time pitcher who hits most days, or a strong bat who can give a team a few innings on the mound as needed: he’s a full time position player, and a full time pitcher.

So, in order to properly evaluate Ohtani, we believe he should be assessed as each, separately and entirely.

Ohtani the Pitcher

With 2021 being his first full season on the mound (12 starts from 2018-2020), we’ll utilize statistics from 2021 & 2022 thus far for this calculation.

For comparables, we’ve included players with similar production in the two years leading up to their major paydays: Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, Trevor Bauer, & Yu Darvish. Why these pitchers specifically?

While it’s easy to assume that Ohtani’s stature in the game simply means he’s the best of the best at everything he’s doing, the statistics over the past 1.5 seasons say otherwise.Players like Gerrit Cole & Max Scherzer have recently signed contracts that live in the neighborhood of where many assume Ohtani will soon live, but statistically, they have produced far higher than what Shohei has been able to offer on the mound. These four pitchers provide a better snapshot comparison to what Ohtani the pitcher has been since 2020.

Ohtani stands ahead of the pack here in a majority of categories, with time missed & innings per start being his Achilles heel to date. Running this through the algorithm (money/stats/age) spits out a 7 year, $206M contract - for Ohtani the pitcher.

Ohtani the Hitter

Again using 2021 + current 2022 statistics, we’ll now assess Shohei Ohtani as a batter, stacking up his recent production against the likes of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, George Springer, & recently extended Jose Ramirez - all close comps statistically speaking.

There’s a lot to like here from a total package setting, but Ohtani is behind in quite a bit of these notable categories. Harper’s two-year production probably aligns best with Shohei right now, and Ohtani gets a big bump from his ability to swipe a base every few games, but we had difficulty finding a “sweet spot” of proper comparables for the kind of player he is.

When running these metrics through the algorithm, Ohtani the Hitter projects to an 8 year, $202M contract.

Okay So Now What?

In most cases, our work would be done here. We have a number, we publish that number, and it becomes our “calculated projection” for said player. But it’s not that black and white with Shohei Ohtani. We’ve identified four paths these contract negotiations may take - each with a projected contract figure to boot.

#1 Agent’s Take: He’s a Dual Player - Take it or Leave It

The simplest starting point is the argument every agent in the world would make: Here’s our player, we expect him to be this forever, pay him accordingly.

He’s a $29.5M pitcher, and a $25.2M hitter, and he does both full-time, so that makes him a $54.7M baseball player. He’ll be 29 years old, and thus commands a minimum 8 year contract.

8 years, $437,600,000 ($54.7M AAV)

Crazy, right? This would be the largest total value contract in MLB history by more than $11M (Trout, $426.5M), with the highest average salary in MLB history by more than $11M (Scherzer, $43.3M).

But let’s think about it this way. Shohei Ohtani projects to strike out 239 batters per 162 games. He also projects to hit 44 home runs and steal 24 bags over those 162 games. How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M?

#2 Logic’s Take: He’s a Dual Player Now - But Not Forever

Let’s build in a little bit of logic to our “agent’s take”, by assuming that Shohei Ohtani will not be a full-time pitcher for the next 8-10 years. For purposes of this piece, we’ll project that he can maintain this type of dual player status for 5 more seasons, which in itself feels aggressive.

So now he’s a $29.5M pitcher for 5 seasons (100% of his value, and a $25.2M hitter for 8 seasons (100% of his value) which means:

8 years, $348,800,000 ($43.6M AAV)

This would be the 3rd largest total value contract in MLB history (Trout, $426.5M; Betts, $365M) and the largest average salary in MLB history (Scherzer, $43.3M).

#3 John Smoltz Take: Full-Time Now, Part-Time Later

Is there a compromised medium? Possibly. It might be incorrect to assume that 35 year old Ohtani can’t provide any production from the mound. What if his skillset was able to be utilized out of the bullpen, like John Smoltz was able to provide those great Braves teams in the twilight of his career?

So now he’s a $29.5M full-time pitcher for 5 seasons (100% of his value), a $7.3M part-time pitcher for 3 seasons (25% of his value), and a $25.2M hitter for 8 seasons (100% of his value).

8 years, $371,500,000 ($46.4M AAV)

This would be the 2nd largest total value contract in MLB history (Trout, $426.5M) and the largest average salary in MLB history (Scherzer, $43.3M).

#4 The Short & Sweet Take: Maximize the Prime

And finally, because short, high money contracts are FINALLY starting to make their way into MLB, we’ll project what a few smaller term deals could look like.

Generally the trade off to sign a player short term is to crank up the average salary. Carlos Correa probably isn’t a $35.1M shortstop in a lot of spreadsheets. But as a 3 year contract with opt-outs after each year, the Twins were comfortable going bigger on their tax just to have him for their immediate window of contention.

These types of negotiations almost always start from the player’s side, as the goal is to maximize immediate pay, with the opportunity to get back into the open market at an age that allows for it to happen again. But it doesn’t make a ton of sense to assume that for Ohtani, as the odds of him recapturing his current day value again in 3-5 years just doesn’t seem prudent. Shohei and his camp will be looking for one big swing here that encapsulates his current unicorn status, and factors in value he’ll be able to provide as a 35+ year old hitter.

Will teams be tempted to offer Shohei Ohtani an over-market-value smaller contract, especially with a short leash on his ability to pitch full-time, and the heightened risk of injury as he ages?

3 years, $180,000,000 ($60M AAV)

(From Above) How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M?

What if 3 years won’t cut it for Ohtani (it won’t). Will 5 years at a slightly higher than market value AAV get the job done?

5 years, $285,000,000 ($57M AAV)

Concluding Thoughts

These numbers may seem eye popping on the surface, but MLB (and all sports) are on a fast track to these price tags in the next few seasons. If the COVID pandemic taught us anything, it’s that the value of live sports to television/streaming networks is as great as ever.

NFL quarterbacks now max out at $50M per year (and climbing), NBA superstars now see over $50M per year average salaries, and top soccer/racing figures have been securing this type of money for a while now.

Max Scherzer’s free agent contract with the Mets didn’t just raise eyebrows, it raised the bar for how aggressive contending teams may have to be to secure the final one or two pieces to their championship puzzles. At the time of his signing, Gerrit Cole’s $36M per year mark was the starting pitcher ceiling. Scherzer locked in almost $7M more per year, on ? of the term.

Ohtani is the kind of player that either a) changes the immediate mindset for your team, or, b) identifies as the one big piece to push a team to the top. He’s that talented, that special, that unique. Does that mean a ridiculous overpay is required? No, but it only takes two teams to start a bidding war. Will he truly reach the numbers we’re projecting here? Obviously only time will tell, but early reports say it’s at least safe to assume he’ll be shooting to push past Max Scherzer’s $43.3M on average.

Our reservation in confidently stating that Ohtani will broach historic financial numbers is actually self-induced. Ohtani and his camp were comfortable accepting a 2 year, $8.5M contract to buyout two years of arbitration placed a confidence value on his market. This is a notion that can go both ways (an $18M qualifying offer for a $12M player now makes him an $18M player), but in Ohtani’s case it lowers his floor, which often ends up lowering the ceiling as well.

This isn’t a hard and fast rule, and certain individuals buck trends and blow through glass ceilings. Shohei Ohtani is certainly on track to be that kind of baseball player, but just how high, and for just how long, remains the question. 

DK Metcalf is currently holding out from the Seattle Seahawks’ mandatory offseason activities, putting himself in line for a potential $95,000+ of fines (team discretion), while he awaits a new contract.

Metcalf is entering a contract year, currently set to earn $3.986M in the final season of his rookie contract, but wants a piece of the now very large pie that is the new wide receiver market.

The #64 overall selection back in 2019 burst onto the scene, catching 58 balls for 900 yards and 7 TDs in his rookie campaign. It only got better from there. Metcalf’s 1,303 yards, 83 catches, and 10 TDs in 2020 earned him 2nd team All-Pro honors. While his numbers dipped slightly last year (75 grabs, 967 yards), the now 24 year old found the endzone 12 times.

So what next? The dynamic of the Seattle organization has obviously changed with QB Russell Wilson now in Denver, Bobby Wagner now in LA. But it’s still Pete Carroll’s team, and many of the weapons will return for the 2022 season. Should Metcalf be seeking a move to a better QB situation now? Or is the goal simply to get paid before the wheels fall off in Seattle come September, then force a trade as quickly as possible thereafter?

Let’s assume for now that it’s the latter, and that contract negotiations are well underway between Seattle GM John Schneider & Metcalf’s agent Tory Dandy. Dandy has had a busy offseason, negotiating identical stay at home deals for both Chris Godwin (TB) and Mike Williams (LAC), while also working through the trade & sign scenario for A.J. Brown. Dandy also represents Deebo Samuel, another ongoing team/player contract battle.

With this knowledge in tow, it’s reasonable to foresee a situation where a viable contract is not offered by Seattle, and A.J. Brown’s scenario becomes a reality for Metcalf, despite teams heading toward training camp in a few weeks. So what will it take for Seattle to retain their star WR?

A.J. Brown’s contract becomes the prototype. Yes, there are bigger WR deals now on the books, but Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp all recently signed their third contracts, and should be placed in a separate tier when building out comparisons.

The A.J. Brown Effect

Brown signed a 4 year, $100M extension in Philadelphia, a deal that included over $24M in Year 1, and $57M practically guaranteed through the first three seasons. Brown’s previous two year production is just slightly better than Metcalfs, as were Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, and Chris Godwins. But all of these WRs deserve to be in the same conversation when it comes to contract negotiations. There’s one glaring exception though: Touchdowns. Brown, Moore, Williams and Cooper combined for an average of .44 touchdown receptions per game played over the past two seasons. Metcalf chimes in at .67, a huge number for a receiver with Tyler Lockett on the other side of the field.

Metcalf isn’t just a freak athletic running go routes. He has space creating ability, and can turn into a tight end style red zone option when the offense needs it most. It’s a trait that almost none of these other comparable receivers can boast on a consistent basis, and it’s worthy of more money at the end of the day.

Calculated Value

From a total resume standpoint, Metcalf mathematically projects to a 4 year, $88M extension. If we’re talking average annual salary (which we shouldn’t), this $22M per year places him 7th among active WRs. The $88M new money also ranks 7th. Are these reasonable numbers for Metcalf? Yes. But reasonable likely doesn’t keep him in a QB-less Seattle.

Tyler Lockett’s Contract

Is it common for teams to carry two high paid receivers respectively? Not particularly. A quick spin around the league currently shows that Carolina (Moore, Anderson), Denver (Sutton, Patrick), Las Vegas (Adams, Renfroe), LA Chargers (Williams, Allen), LA Rams (Kupp, Robinson), NY Giants (Golladay, Shepard), Tampa (Evans, Godwin, Gage) are carrying multiple receivers with a contract north of $10M per year.

Of the group, the Raiders probably become the best future comparable. We know Davante Adams went bigtime with his 5 year, $140M extension, $65M+ practically guaranteed, but LV followed that up with a 2 year, $32M deal for Hunter Renfroe this month.

Tyler Lockett is entering year two of a 5 year, $80M contract, and is pretty comfortably locked into 2 years, $25M through the 2023 season based on dead cap structure. By assessing Lockett’s deal in this manner (numbers lower than Renfroe’s extension), there should be no concern with Seattle tossing a $25M per year contract on top here - especially when factoring in that the Raiders also handed out a $65M guarantee to their starting QB this spring, and the Seahawks may not spend $5M total on all of their QBs in 2022.

Projecting Metcalf’s Next Contract

With all of this said, let’s put a little logic on top of the previously mentioned math. Is it easy enough to simply look at A.J. Brown’s contract and say “that works”? Maybe. But Brown’s contract came with draft capital attached to it via the initial trade to get him in the door. If I’m DK Metcalf’’s camp right now, there’s a surcharge to stay. We can keep the 4 years, $100M new year new money numbers for “team friendly” marketability, but the 57% practically guaranteed needs to slide up to 60, and $42M of that has to be fully locked in at signing, surpassing D.J. Moore’s $41.6M number.

4 new years, $100M new money; $60M practically guaranteed, $42M fully at signing