Summary of Transactions

The Rams have utilized all areas of general management this offseason, and all of these moves have some form of salary cap impact. We’ll detail them below.

Pending Free Agent Extensions: 2
Under Contract Extensions: 2
Signed via Free Agency: 4
Acquired via Trade: 1
Contract Restructures: 1
Lost via Trade: 1
Lost via Retirement: 1
Outright Releases: 1
Lost via Free Agency: 9

2022 SALARY CAP IMPACT

In other words, the Rams added or brought back 15 players, moved on from 3 under contract (trade, retirement, release), and by extending three notable players (Donald/Stafford/Kupp) and restructuring another (Floyd), came away with over $28M of additional cap space in 2022.

New Starters

Using the projected depth chart from Ourlads, here’s a breakdown of potential starting roles that have been replaced for the upcoming 2022 season.

WR Allen Robinson (trade) replaces Odell Beckham Jr. (free agency)/Robert Woods (trade)
OL Joe Noteboom (internal) replaces LT Andrew Whitworth (retirement, pending)
OG Logan Bruss (draft) replaces Austin Corbett (free agency)
LB Justin Hollins (internal) replaces Von Miller (free agency)
LB Bobby Wagner (free agency) replaces Troy Reeder (free agency)
P Riley Dixon (free agency) replaces Johnny Hekker (release)
KR Brandon Powell (free agency) replaces Cooper Kupp/Ben Skowronek

Pending Free Agent Extensions ($5.3M)

New contracts for a few offensive lineman before they hit the open market added $5.3M of cap to the Rams’ table this past March.

March 14th
Extended C Brian Allen 3 years, $18M with $10M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $1.8M

March 14th
Extended new LT Joe Noteboom 3 years, $40M with $25M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $3.5M

Under Contract Extensions

The Rams freed up $12.25M of cap space in restructuring/extended massive contracts with their franchise QB and defensive weapon.

March 19th
Extended QB Matthew Stafford 4 years, $160M with $130M guaranteed through 2025.
2022 Cap Charge: $13.5M ($9.5M saved)

June 6th
Extended DL Aaron Donald 3 years, $95M with $65M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $24M ($2.75M saved)

June 8th
Extended WR Cooper Kupp 3 years, $80.1M with $75M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $17.8M ($875k saved)

Trades

LA surprised many when they moved on from Robert Woods, and surprised nobody when they brought back Troy Hill. They netted $1.3M of cap with these moves.

March 19th
Traded WR Robert Woods to Tennessee, taking on an $11.9M dead cap hit.
2022 Cap Savings: $3.8M

April 30th
Acquired CB Troy Hill from the Browns on a 1 year $4.5M contract, converting $3M to bonus.
2022 Cap Charge: $2.5M

Free Agents

The Rams added 4 projected starters in free agency this spring. They combine for just $8.5M of 2022 cap this season.

March 17th
Signed WR Allen Robinson 3 years, $46.5M with $30.75M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $4.3M

March 19th
Signed KR Brandon Powell, 1 year, $1M
2022 Cap Charge: $895,000

March 31st
Signed LB Bobby Wagner 5 years, $50M with $20M guaranteed through 2024.
2022 Cap Charge: $2.5M

April 5th
Signed P Riley Dixon to a 1 year, $1M contract
2022 Cap Charge: $895,000

Releases

After a run of Pro Bowl caliber seasons, LAR moved on from their starting punter. It freed up $2M of cap space, and they went on to replace him with Riley Dixon’s $895k charge.

March 15th
Released P Johnny Hekker, taking on a $942,000 dead cap hit.
2022 Cap Savings: $2.05M

Restructures

The single contract conversion of the offseason (thus far) opened up $12M of much needed space at the start of free agency.

March 16th
Restructured LB Leonard Floyd’s contract
2022 Cap Savings: $12M

Draft Picks

The Rams have 8 players under contract from the 2022 NFL Draft, starting with pick #104.
2022 Top 51 Draft Pool: $1.25M

Retirement (assumed)

LT Andrew Whitworth retires, leaving behind a $2.16M dead cap hit for 2022, $2M for 2023.
2022 Cap Savings: $15.5M

Additional Dead Cap

In addition to the dead cap hits mentioned above, the Rams hold $680,000 of dead cap from moves made both in 2021 and this offseason thus far.
2022 Cap Charge: $680,000

Still To Come

Starting LG David Edwards, RT Rob Havenstein DT Greg Gaine, DE A’Shawn Robinson, FS Nick Scott, CB David Long and K Matt Gay are all in contract years. Do the Rams strike early on any of these extensions?

But What About 2023...

Now we're talking. Anyone who follows the business of the NFL closely knows that a move made today almost always mean more pain tomorrow. As it currently stands, the 2023 Rams have 62 players under contract with $240M of cap allocated. If we project a $218M league salary cap, this means we estimated LAR to be about $12M over right now from a Top 51 standpoint, $22M in total allocations.

Aaron Donald + Matthew Stafford + Jalen Ramsey + Leonard Floyd currently = $105M of 2023 salary cap.

The good news? All of that cap is just as flexible as the 2022 figures were. And Les Snead can wave his magic wand and do the above all over again. Rinse, Repeat, Rinse, Repeat...until they're bad.

Aaron Donald’s not only not retiring, he’s now the highest paid non-quarterback in the history of football - and then some.

The 31 year old defensive lineman had the final 3 years, $52.25M remaining on his previous contract almost entirely ripped up. The result is a 3 year, $95M contract through the 2024 season, with guarantee mechanisms in 2023, early March vesting on the 2024 compensation, and two void years for cap purposes.

The Cash Flow

Donald will see $31.5M in 2022, up significantly from the $14.25M he was set to earn this season previously. There’s another $28.5M to be made in 2023, totalling $60M across the first two seasons. In 2024, the contract offers a whopping $35M cash, $5M of which locks in March of 2023, the rest becoming fully guaranteed in March 2024. The $95M over the first three seasons of the contract puts Donald in very rare company:

There are 7 contracts with a 3 year cash flow north of $95M - all of them are quarterbacks.

1. Aaron Rodgers: $150.8M
2. Deshaun Watson, $138M
3. Dak Prescott, $126M
4. Matthew Stafford, $120M
5. Russell Wilson, $107M
6. Derek Carr, $99.9M
7. Josh Allen, $95M

Cumulative Cash Flow for Active NFL Contracts

The Average Annual Salary

Not the most useful metric available because of its inconsistencies, but for all intents, Aaron Donald is now a $31.6M per year NFL player. This ranks 12th in the entire NFL, 1st among all non-quarterbacks.

But (and it seems like there’s always a but with these NFL contracts), the $5M roster bonus allocated to 2022 was technically built into his previous contract and carried over to the new deal. However, since we’re treating this as a rip up and start over process (like we did with Aaron Rodgers), it’s $95M over 3 years year at the end of the day.

2022 NFL Average Salary Rankings

The Guarantee Structure

Aaron Donald’s new deal comes with $46.5M fully guaranteed at signing, by way of a $25M signing bonus, a $1.5M 2022 base salary, a $5M 2022 roster bonus, and a $13.5M 2023 roster bonus.

Another $18.5M fully locks in next March, via a $13.5M 2023 base salary, and a $5M roster bonus for 2024. Should he or the Rams cut loose after 2023, it’ll be a 2 year, $65M contract ($5M of which becomes a parting gift, with no offset language).

If he sticks around for 2024, another $30M becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2024, by way of a $10M base salary, and a $20M option bonus. That means every dollar of this $95M contract is either guaranteed at signing, or comes with some form of early vesting.

The Current & Potentially Future Cap Structure

Despite tacking on two void years to help the salary cap portion of this contract to spread out, the Rams will only free up $2.75M of cap space per this new pact ($12.5M of bonus proration carried over from the previous contract).

The deal currently carries cap hits of:

2022: $24M
2023: $38M
2024: $31.1M
2025: $23.3M (void year dead cap)


But this is only the beginning of this conversation. That $38M cap hit for 2023 is likely going to be a problem for the Rams, even if the NFL salary cap pushes up to $230M.

By simply restructuring the $15M roster bonus for 2023 that is already fully guaranteed, converting it to a signing bonus and tacking on yet another void year, things move around quickly.


The 2023 cap hit drops to a manageable $26M figure, but the 2024 figure rises to $34.1M, and maybe more importantly, the voidable dead cap increases to a potential $32.3M (assuming the 2024 option bonus is exercised). In other words, if this restructure (or any really) happens, and Donald finishes out this entire contract, the Rams will be taking on quite a dead cap hit in 2025 when the dust settles.

The Impact of this Contract

The player currently in line to benefit most from Aaron Donald’s massive re-up is Nick Bosa, who was already eyeing a top of the market extension in San Francisco, and now has a whole new benchmark to work from. Deals for Titans’ DL Jeffery Simmons, Broncos LB Bradley Chubb, and Packers LB Rashan Gary, to name a few, should see an uptick in value thanks to where Donald went financially.

But it’s important to keep in mind that many teams will attempt to label this as an anomaly situation, where a unicorn defensive player factored heavily into his team winning a Super Bowl, then threatened to walk off into retirement if his contractual demands weren’t met. This was the perfect scenario, despite Donald being north of 31 years old through all of this.

The player/agent side of the equation won’t see it this way however. Donald’s $31M per year is now a new mountain top that others will soon scale. It’s perfectly possible that Nick Bosa is that player in the coming weeks. No matter, today was an historic day for defensive players. 

On April 8th, 2022, Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman announced at the Opening Day press conference that they had offered OF Aaron Judge a 7 year, $213.5M extension, and that the now 30 year old had rejected the deal.

The deal was set to start in the 2023 season, an important note, and run through the 2029 season. Specifics of the offer (opt outs, club options, etc) were not made available, but the Yankees appeared set on signing Judge through his age 37 season. Reports over the winter suggested Judge had been seeking the 8th year on any extension.

Why Arbitration Matters to Judge, & the MLBPA

The detail that the extension offers were set to start in 2023 may sound like status quo, but in this case there’s very specific reasoning behind it. Five-year superstar players are rarely going through the arbitration process anymore, with massive extensions in their back pockets already by the time they get there. But when players of Judge’s caliber go through arbitration, they help to reset the price tags of the calculated salaries.

While players often end up avoiding arbitration with some form of compromised salary at the end of the day, the simple act of going through the hearing, having his production evaluated and entered into the system, now beefs up the algorithm, allowing lesser players who will be forced into the process prior to free agency, to earn a few extra dollars as necessary.

Aaron Judge’s 2022 salary is still in limbo, as his arbitration hearing for this current season isn’t scheduled to be heard until June 22nd. Judge has filed for a $22M salary, while the Yankees are countering at $17M.

Note: Arbitration hearing dates were pushed back due to the CBA lockout and are normally adjudicated during the offseason. Judge’s 2022 production should have no impact on his hearing and subsequent salary.

Aaron Judge & Free Agency

With negotiations now tabled, Judge will indeed hit the open market this winter. He’s stated as such publicly, noting that he’ll speak to any of the 30 teams about his future, the Yankees being one of them.

But isn’t MLB Free Agency dead? Yes, unless it’s not. MLB front offices have become extremely strict about giving high average salary, long term free agent contracts to players in their 30s. But, as with everything, there are always exceptions. Here’s a look at the Top 3 free agent position player contracts from each of the past 5 offseasons, along with the Top 30+ Year Old contract signed that winter.

Kris Bryant’s 7 year $182M deal with Colorado this past March represents the largest free agent contract for a player north of 30 years old since 2014, when Robinson Cano bagged a 10 year, $240M deal from the Mariners. Albert Pujols signed the exact same deal two years prior with the Angels. Both deals ran through the player’s age 40, something MLB front offices are clearly trying to avoid these days.

The Best Comp?

The best contract to hold Judge up against might be Anthony Rendon’s 7 year, $245M free agent contract with the Angels, signed in 2020, at age 29.

If we use our contract tool to show a quick comparison, Rendon’s production in the two seasons prior to his free agent signing actually outweigh Judge’s current 21-22 production in every category, with the exception of games played. Toss in the notion that third base may be treated as a more important position defensively than right field, and that Rendon was only 29 at the time of the signing, and it’s possible to see a world where Rendon deserves to remain the higher contract here.

Rendon isn’t the perfect comparable for Aaron Judge, but to his credit, there might not be one in today’s game. However, Rendon checks more boxes than most when stacking up Aaron Judge’s potential situation, from statistical relevance, age, and (potentially) banking off a World Series win in his contract season. Is Rendon a $245M player if the Nationals don’t win the 2019 series?

Valuing Aaron Judge’s Next Contract

Before the 2022 season began, our contract projection tool pegged Judge at a baseline $25M per year, in line for a 7 year, $180M extension. The Yankees were willing to go north of $30M per year with their offer, and for all intents, that was considered a “fair” contract. So where do things stand currently?

As many expected, Judge has come out of the gates blazing hot for the AL-leading Yankees. At the time of this piece, he leads the league in runs, home runs, and slugging, and his +1600 preseason MVP odds have slimmed down to +330. Furthermore, the Yankees are now +600 to win the World Series, second only to the Dodgers in that regard.

Judge is heading toward a perfect free agent contract storm, not unlike the path Freddie Freeman just took in Atlanta. While Freeman ended up finishing 9th in the MVP race, his contributions in the postseason that culminated with a Braves’ World Series, put him at the forefront of the free agent class this past winter. A 32-year old Freeman was very public about wanting a 6 year contract that carried him through his age 38 season. Atlanta’s final offer was reportedly 5 years, $135M. The Dodgers swooped in with a 6 year, $162M offer, forcing the long-time Brave to leave town.

Aaron Judge will turn 31 a few weeks into the 2023 season. If we’re following Freeman’s approach, it stands to reason that Judge will be seeking an 8 year contract this winter (remember, the Yankees offer was a 7 year contract that started in the 2023 season).

At the time of this piece, our contract projection tool values Aaron Judge toward an 8 year, $224M contract this offseason. That’s $28M per year, and $10M more guaranteed than the Yankees offered a few months ago. For starters, Aaron Judge shouldn’t give a rat’s behind what his average salary calculates to, except in regards to how it will impact his team’s ability to properly build a contending roster around him. In other words, the fact that Anthony Rendon scored $35M per year, or Gerrit Cole currently holds a $36M AAV in New York are moot, unless you’re concerned about the luxury tax - and quite frankly, the Angels and Yankees should not be operating with those concerns.

Aaron Judge’s focus should be on maximizing guaranteed dollars within the length of contract that he’s seeking - assumed to be 8 years.

Top Position Player Guarantees in MLB

1. Mike Trout, $426.5M (extension, age 27)
2. Mookie Betts, $365M (extension, age 27)
3. Francisco Lindor, $341M (extension, age 27)
4. Fernando Tatis, Jr., $340M (extension, age 22)
5. Bryce Harper, $330M (free agency, age 26)
6. Giancarlo Stanton, $325M (extension, age 25)
6. Corey Seager, $325M (free agency, age 27)
7. Manny Machado, $300M (free agency, age 26)
8. Nolan Arenado, $260M (extension, age 27)
9. Miguel Cabrera, $248M (extension, age 30)
10. Anthony Rendon, $245M (free agency, age 29)

As seen here, things don’t get comparable from an age perspective until Miguel Cabrera & Anthony Rendon’s numbers come in. If Rendon’s $245M is our assumed benchmark, let’s first adjust that for purposes of inflation:

$245,000,000 in 2020 calculates to approximately $273,000,000 in 2022.

Now let’s chop off 5% based on Rendon’s slightly better pre-contract production and the fact that he’ll have been nearly 2 years younger than Judge at the time of signing.

$273,000,000 - 5% = $260,000,000

Proposed Contract
8 years, $260,000,000 ($32.5M per year)

Potential Breakdown
2023: $15M ($20M signing bonus)
2024: $35M
2025: $35M
2026: $35M
2027: $35M
2028: $35M
2029: $25M
2030: $25M

Concluding Thoughts

If Aaron Judge continues producing at the level he is in 2022, and/or the Yankees win the World Series, the narrative for Judge’s free agent contract will quickly turn to $300M. While this isn’t an absurd ask, it would be remarkably historic both in terms of signing age, and the luxury tax salary ($37.5M, Mike Trout’s $35.5M is highest for a position player all-time).

Another consideration to bring into this conversation is the state income tax argument. Corey Seager’s $325M in the zero-tax state of Texas looks a lot better than Fernando Tatis Jr.’s $340M in the 12%-tax state of California when it’s all said and done. Our $260M proposed contract here should be considered a “flat-tax” projection, representing an average tax scenario across the league. If Judge crosses the country to San Francisco for the second-act of his career (as has been rumored), it’s within reason that he could ask for A) a larger signing bonus or B) more guarantees to offset the state’s withholdings.

Finally, MLB as a whole lacks instant, natural marketability. It’s vitally important that the major markets in the game (NY, LA, CHI, PHI) possess players that drive eyeballs, merchandise, content, etc…) Aaron Judge is one of the easiest players in the game to root for, despite him playing for the Yankees - a team many love to hate. This relationship can’t be overlooked, and may be invaluable to the franchise. If Judge is removed from the Yankees roster next year, who becomes that “rootable” name? Will a move to San Francisco diminish his popularity, especially with Betts/the Dodgers & Tatis/the Padres likely topping them in their own division most years.

Prediction

The Yankees unsuccessfully attempt to acquire Juan Soto this winter as a way to replace Aaron Judge with a younger (better) player, and give in to Judge’s financial demands, locking in an 8 year contract in the $260M-$280M range.

With June 1st here, a number of NFL teams will see significant cap space open up thanks to their previous Post June 1st Designations back in March. Our look at the financial ramifications for each of the 11 players who will officially process at 4PM ET today.

Total Team Savings
Arizona: $10M
Chicago: $10.9M
Cleveland: $9.5M
Dallas: $10M
Las Vegas: $19.75M
Philadelphia: $2.1M
Seattle: $5.1M
Tennessee: $9.5M
Washington: $12M

Tarik Cohen, RB, Chicago Bears

Injuries continue to riddle what could have been a dynamic career for Cohen, who had 2 years, $9.75M left on his deal with Chicago cut bait. The Post 6/1 Designation frees up $4M of 2022 cap space, leaving behind dead hits of $1.75M this year, and another $1.75M next season. Cohen remains unsigned.

La’el Collins, OT, Dallas Cowboys

After unsuccessful trade attempts, Collins was released by Dallas, only to sign with the Bengals 48 hours later. The Post June 1st departure frees up $10M of cap and cash for the Cowboys, leaving behind $4.9M of dead cap this year, $8.7M in 2023.

Landon Collins, S, Washington Commanders

Collins wound up earning $42.6M of the $84M contract signed back in 2019. Washington now frees up $12M of his $15.7M cap hit, leaving behind dead figures of $3.825M this year, and another $4.65M next season. Collins remains unsigned.

Fletcher Cox, DT, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles made a mess of Cox’s $102.6M extension, utilizing 3 bonuses, and 3 restructures to continually pushing cap down the line. That line ended this March, and the Post June 1st designation frees up just $2.12M of cap space, leaving behind hits of $12.8M for 2022, and $15.35M in 2023. Cox signed a 1 year, $14M deal to return to Philly almost immediately after this designation.

Carlos Dunlap, DE, Seattle Seahawks

Seattle will free up $5.1M of cash and cap for 2022, leaving behind dead cap hits of $1.4M this season, and $4.2M next year. Dunlap remains unsigned.

Austin Hooper, TE, Cleveland Browns

Hooper had 2 years, $19M left on his deal when Cleveland designated him a 6/1 release. The move frees up $9.5M for 2022, leaving behind dead cap hits of $3.75M in 2022, $7.5M in 2023. Hooper signed a 1 year $6M contract with the Titans shortly thereafter.

Julio Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans

The Titans moved on from Jones despite $13.2M of dead cap, including $2M cash. The designation leaves behind hits of $4.8M in 2022 ($9.5M saved), and $8.4M in 2023. Julio remains unsigned at this time.

Cory Littleton, LB, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders were never going to move forward with Littleton’s $15.7M cap hit for 2022, and the Post 6/1 designation now frees up $11.75M of it. The move leaves behind dead cap hits of $4M this year, $10M next season. Littleton found a home in Carolina on a 1 year, $2.6M contract.

Carl Nassib, DE, Las Vegas Raiders

Nassib became expendable when the Raiders won the bidding war for Chandler Jones this March. His June 1st designation frees up $8M of 2022 cap space, leaving behind dead cap hits of $1.652M for 2022, and another $4.9M in 2023. Nassib remains unsigned.

Jordan Phillips, DE, Arizona Cardinals

After two tough seasons, Arizona moving on to free up $10M was always going to be in the cards. The designation leaves behind dead cap hits of $3.3M for 2022, $5.9M for 2023. Phillips signed a 1 year, $5M deal to rejoin Buffalo shortly after the move.

Danny Trevathan, LB, Chicago Bears

The Bears moved on from 1 year, $7.125M remaining on Trevathan’s deal in favor of $2.4M of 2022 dead cap, and $6.5M in 2023. The designation frees up $6.9M of cap space this season. Trevathan remains unsigned.

A visual look at the numbers behind David Njoku's $54.75M extension in Cleveland, including $17M fully guaranteed at signing. View the Full Contract

Lamar Jackson’s absence from the Baltimore Ravens’ OTAs puts his expiring contract, and lack of an extension, back to the forefront of the NFL offseason. So why hasn’t it caused more of a stir, when seemingly less important holdouts are now dominating the league’s news?

First off, Jackson is representing himself in the matter, so he alone controls what hits the mainstream from his side. Secondly, it’s been no secret, as divulged a few times by Ravens’ owner Steve Bisciotti, that Jackson is simply not interested in negotiating with the front office at this point in time. And that alone - should be the talking point.

So what happens next?

Will Lamar Jackson choose to play out his $23M 5th year option, and do his negotiating with a franchise tag (projected $33M) hanging in the balance? Does he have reservations about being the QB1 for a franchise that continually seems to put an onus on the running game, and “nickel and dime” their passing weapons? Or is he simply just waiting this out as long as possible, allowing as many other QBs to sign contracts as can be done, thus leaving him with the absolute best scenario once he decides he’s ready to meet with GM Eric DeCosta?

Lamar Rides This Out All the Way

All are plausible in the grand scheme of things, but there’s certainly risk involved. The last QB to take this approach was of course Dak Prescott, who signed a $31.4M franchise tag in 2020, then suffered a gruesome ankle injury just a few weeks into the following season. However, the Cowboys still rewarded Prescott with $126M guaranteed the following March, saving them over $20M of cap space in favor of the $37.7M 2nd franchise tag.

So let’s put Lamar down this exact path of the next three seasons.
2022: $23M option salary (fully guaranteed)
2023: $33M exclusive franchise tag (projected)
2024: $39.7M 2nd franchise tag (120% of ‘23 tag)

Total: $95.7M

If we look at the cash flow of recently signed QB contracts, this $95.7M over the first 3 seasons of a deal would rank 7th - more than Josh Allen, more than Patrick Mahomes, just under Derek Carr.

The major difference between Dak Prescott’s situation, and Lamar Jackson’s current scenario, is the league salary cap. When Prescott was offered the 2nd franchise tag last February, the $37.7M cap hit accounted for a whopping 20% of the $182.5M league salary cap. Jackson’s first franchise tag (projected $33M) should account for around 15% of what is expected to be a $225M+ league cap for 2023. And a 2nd franchise tag ($39.7M estimated), would only account for around 17% of a projected $240M 2024 salary cap.

In other words, Baltimore could swallow this pill if needed, lowering Lamar Jackson’s “expired contract” leverage quite a bit. Should this persuade him to consider a multi-year extension now? Not just yet. The other major difference here is age. Lamar is just north of 25 years old. Dak Prescott was nearly 28 when he signed his extension.

What a Deal Now Should Look Like

There are two brand new mountain tops to consider with every QB contract from here out:

1. Aaron Rodgers’ $50M per year

2. Deshaun Watson’s $230M fully guaranteed

Are these metrics anomalies that should be thrown out when evaluating other scenarios? In some cases, yes. Rodgers’ resume and threat of leaving gave him maximum leverage, while Watson’s talent + age led to a veritable bidding war both in terms of trade assets, and extension negotiations. Most people in the industry believe what the Browns did here is flat out crazy.

We’ll provide a slightly less crazy look at what Lamar Jackson should be considering if he agrees to sit down with the Ravens’ front office this summer.

Top Average Salaries

- Aaron Rodgers: $50.2M
- Deshaun Watson: $46M
- Patrick Mahomes: $45M

Lamar Jackson currently calculates to a flat $44M per year contract in our system. This should be considered a baseline starting point for any multi-year conversation. Best case scenario? This is a $48M per year extension.

Top 2-Year Cash

- Aaron Rodgers: $101.5M
- Dak Prescott: $95M
- Deshaun Watson: $92M

Assuming we’re on a $48M per year track, Watson’s $95M over the first two seasons isn’t out of the question, especially as we’re going to take a short-term approach with this deal in terms of length. It’s also a nice “win” for Jackson, as he gets the $95M+ he was set to make on a 5th year option + franchise tag + 2nd franchise tag in two years, instead of three. 

Top 3-Year Cash

- Aaron Rodgers: $150.8M
- Deshaun Watson: $138M
- Dak Prescott: $126M

For cap purposes, we’re not going to be overly aggressive here in approaching the $150M mark. But what is slightly lacking in 3-year cash, will be made up for in overall guarantee.

Extension Length

- Patrick Mahomes: 10 years
- Josh Allen: 6 years
- Deshaun Watson: 5 years

Lamar Jackson should be seeking a contract with no more than 4 new years added on to 2022. We’re going to guarantee the first two seasons as signing, with 3rd & 4th year guarantee that kick in a season early, leaving the 5th year as a veritable option. Why is this important? At 25 years old, this will put $175M in Jackson’s hands, and give him a chance to re-up prior to turning 30 years old.

Total Guarantees

- Deshaun Watson: $230M
- Aaron Rodgers: $150.8M
- Josh Allen: $150M

Josh Allen will see his $150M become fully guaranteed by March of 2024, or less than 4 years into this contract. That’s the going rate here with Jackson, despite a more aggressive contract length. Nearly $60M of Allen’s guarantee comes via signing or option bonus, a structure the Ravens also use with their larger contracts.

We’ve taken a softer approach with the “upfront guarantees” in lei of Patrick Mahomes “guarantee mechanisms”. In the below projection, 2022 & 2023 are fully locked in for Jackson at the time of signing, to the tune of $95.016M. By next March, another $40M is secured, and another $40M guarantees by March of 2024. This means $175.016M practically guaranteed over the next 4 seasons. 

A Projected Contract Breakdown for Lamar Jackson 

Our look at a projected breakdown for a 4 year, $192M extension, including $95M fully guaranteed at signing, another $80M by March of 2024, a $29M signing bonus, $40M second year option bonus, and a void year for cap purposes.

Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres, Starting Pitcher

Joe Musgrove was a major part of the four player return Pittsburgh received when Gerrit Cole was traded to Houston in 2018. After three middling seasons with the Pirates, the suburban San Diego native was shipped home for the final two years of contractual control. He broke out in his backyard, posting career bests across the board highlighted by an August no hitter. Musgrove led Padres starters in wins, strikeouts and ERA and now completes his final year of arbitration as the SP2 of a deep but fragile rotation.

It’s possible 2021 proves to be the best season of his career but some think the ceiling is even higher. Considering the current market for starting pitching, Musgrove has already done enough to command a sizable contract next offseason but further development could position him for a huge deal. Even a repeat performance might give teams added confidence to offer more term following consecutive productive seasons.

2022 So Far

Musgrove is off to a career start this season, posting a 1.90 ERA and .942 WHIP in 52 innings at the time of this piece. The Padres have won every start he’s made, and while his Ks per 9 innings are down slightly based on previous seasons, the home runs and walks against are WAY down. His adjusted ERA is 50, his Barrel % is under 6, and his Clutch Rating is above for the first time in 5 years. Everything points to a completely poised & comfortable pitcher right now, despite doing so in one of the deepest divisions in all of baseball.

Padres Contract History

San Diego boasts 6 players with an average salary of $10M+, but only two of those players are pitchers - and both, Yu Darvish/Blake Snell, were acquired via trade in the middle of their contract. In fact, the largest Padres pitcher contract ever handed out, is Drew Pomeranz' 4 year, $34M deal. 2nd? Another reliever: Trevor Hoffman's 4 year, $32M.

If we zoom out to the recent position player deals, each of the Manny Machado ($20M), Eric Hosmer ($5M), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($10M), & Pomeranz ($8M) deals include siging bonuses. Hosmer & Machado were afforded opt-outs after 5 years (Hosmer's becomes available this winter), while Tatis Jr. did not receive any options. In regards to salary structure, the process seems to vary. Machado was giving a flat $30M per year breakdown, while Hosmer's compensation is set to decrease mightily post the 2022 opt out ($20M down to $13M). As expected, early deals for Wil Myers & Tatis Jr. have smaller salaries through their arbitration eligibility, then sharp increases in their free agent years that flatten out into equal pay through the end of the deals. None of these major Padres deals contain deferred salary.

So where might a Joe Musgrove deal fall amidst this?

Financial Valuation

While this type of production most likely won’t last the next 4 months, even a slightly modified version of it puts him in line for a sizable payday as he approaches free agency. Musgrove entered 2022 as a fringe $20M/year player, but his 2-year production now calculates north of $22M, putting him on track for a 6 year, $134M contract. The deal can include oversized $25M salaries across the first three seasons, with the option for Musgrove to opt out of 3 years, $59M after the 2025 season.

2023: $10M salary, $10M signing bonus
2024: $25M salary
2025: $25M salary

Player opt-out available

2026: $20M salary
2027: $20M salary
2028: $19M salary

Total: 6 years, $134,000,000

The Padres’ Outlook

San Diego currently has 11 players allocated to their 2023 40-Man roster, accounting for $162M of a $233M tax threshold. $36M of this however comes via player options, most of which are not likely to be exercised. With Sean Manaea also headed for free agency, and both Yu Darvish and Blake Snell entering a contract year in 2023, the Padres rotation is either due for a heavy overhaul - or a boatload of cash soon. Will Musgrove be the first to cash in? Early signs point to yes - and a hometown discount doesn’t seem to fit the bill.

The Free Agent Outlook

Musgrove’s expiring year success heavily resembles Robbie Ray’s recent path to free agency, a season that scored him a 5 year, $115M guarantee with the Mariners. Marcus Stroman’s 3 year, $71M deal can be viewed as the “bad team overpay” version of this based on comparable numbers, but it comes without doubt that should San Diego let Musgrove hit the open market, he’ll have a dozen or so suitors. With tax thresholds increasing, Kevin Gausman’s 5 year, $110M contract should become the foundation for Musgrove, even if he joins a contending team.

Related MLB Links

• 2023 MLB Free Agents
• 2023 MLB Payrolls
• Top MLB Salaries

A visual look at the numbers behind Jaire Alexander's top of the market extension in Green Bay, including an historic $30M signing bonus. View the Full Contract

A visual look at the numbers behind Grady Jarrett's somewhat surprise extension with the Falcons, including $34M fully guaranteed at signing through 2023. View the Full Contract

A visual look at the numbers behind A.J. Brown's extension with the Eagles, including $39M fully guaranteed at signing, & $57M+ through 2024. View the Full Contract