It happened. After months of rumors stating that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen wouldn’t be underbid for prize free agent OF Juan Soto - rumor became reality on Sunday night.

The New York Mets and Juan Soto agreed to an historic 15 year, $765 million free agent contract that includes no deferred money, a $75M signing bonus, $15M of available escalators (TBD), and a player opt-out after the 2029 season that can be voided with an additional $40M guarantee. In other words - this is a $765M contract today, but could finish off as an $820M deal before it’s all said and done.

The Total Value

Soto’s $765 million base value guarantee is the largest in MLB history, surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s blockbuster contract with the Dodgers last winter. The previous high mark came from Mike Trout’s $426.5M extension in Los Angeles of Anaheim.

However, Ohtani’s deal in LA contains significant deferrals ($680M), lowering the present day value of the contract down to $460M (though it should be noted here that the player will still be earning all $700M). In this sense, Soto’s deal in Queens obliterates every one contract in MLB history.

Largest Total Value Contracts in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $765M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $700M
3. Mike Trout, $426.5M
4. Mookie Betts, $365M
5. Aaron Judge, $360M

Complete MLB Contract Rankings

For the record, Soto’s 15 year, $765M contract is also the longest contract in MLB history, surpassing Fernando Tatis Jr.s’ 14 year contract in San Diego.

The Original Offer

Juab Soto was an international signing by the Washington Nationals back in 2015 to the tune of a $1.5M bonus. He would help take the Nats to a World Series Championship in 2019, prompting the organization to eventually lay down a $440M contract extension offer to Soto & agent Scott Boras. The deal would buy out the rest of Soto’s arbitration years at $54M, with 13 years, $386M built into the free agency portion of the contract.

Soto’s new deal with the Mets nearly doubles that output.

The Average/CBT Salary

From an average per year standpoint, Soto’s $51M to be earned trails only Ohtani’s $70M, who of course won’t be actually earning $70M per year at any point in time due to the 10-year deferral package.

Highest APY in MLB History
1. Shohei Ohtani, $70M*
2. Juan Soto, $51M
T3. Max Scherzer, $43.3M
T3. Justin Verlander, $43.3M
5. Zack Wheeler, $42M

*deferrals

Complete Contract APY Rankings

From a collective balance tax salary perspective, things end up a little bit different. As noted above, Ohtani’s deferrals lower his present day value, and subsequent tax salary, down from $700M/$70M to $460.08M/$46.08M. With no deferred compensation built into the Soto deal, his $51M now rises to the top of the list - by nearly $5M.

Highest CBT Salary in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $51M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $46.08M
3. Zack Wheeler, $42M
4. Aaron Judge, $40M
5. Jacob deGrom, $37M

Complete Tax Salary Rankings

Soto’s $51M salary represents 21.1.% of the $241M MLB threshold for 2025.

The Opt-Out

Following the 2029 season (when Soto will have just turned 30-years-old), Juan Soto will have the ability to opt-out of the remaining 10 years, $460M.

The team will then have the ability to void that opt-out with an additional $40M guarantee ($4M added to each of the remaining 10 seasons). The Yankees had a similar setup with SP Gerit Cole, but the two sides decided to void the opt-out this past winter and focus on a new, tbd contract instead.

The Signing Bonus

Soto’s $75M signing bonus is by far the largest in league history, surpassing Mookie Betts’ $65M bonus in LA. The payout will help Soto from an income tax purpose in the state of NY, and it front-loads a total of $295M into the first 5 seasons of this contract.

Largest MLB Signing Bonuses
1. Juan Soto, $75M
2. Mookie Betts, $65M
3. Blake Snell, $52M
T4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $50M
T4. Max Scherzer, $50M

Career Earnings

At the surface, adding $765M to Soto's previously earned $82.3M brings his career number over $847M. But that's likely only the start of this story, right? It seems hard to imagine that the opt-out/buyback in 2030 will happen, adding another $40M to Soto's bottom line. Now we're approaching $888M, and there appear to be incentives/escalators available that can get us into the $900M conversation before it's all said and done.

The only person even in this same stratosphere is of course Ohtani, who will have cashed in over $742M in his career once the deferrals are all paid out.

Final Thoughts

We’ll save our complete concluding thoughts until the full salary/escalator breakdown becomes available, but for now this is simply a wow. The bidding for Soto was large, historic, and surprisingly out loud. Numbers that were being floated around by league reporters wound up being 100% factual, with at least 4 teams willing to go into the $700M pool at one point in time.

The Mets - as was always the assumed case - simply came in with a final offer that couldn’t be matched, and the additional $40M opt-out void had to be the icing on the cake. Will this be the nail in the coffin to the next 2 decades of Mets offseason spending? Owner Steve Cohen’s pockets are deep enough to suggest no. After a botched first spending experience in 2022, this was always going to be the next big splash in Queens. If anything, the need to continue spending and bring a championship back to Flushing is now higher than ever, as this contract will be annually scrutinized if the success on the field doesn’t add up.

More to come as new details are confirmed.

NFL MVP Conversation

QB Josh Allen, -230
RB Saquon Barkley, +500
QB Lamar Jackson, +1100
QB Jared Goff, +1100
QB Patrick Mahomes, +1500

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Bills QB Josh Allen still holds a commanding grip on the MVP, an honor that would bag him an additional $1.5M this season. An upcoming game against Jared Goff and the Lions could be a very big step forward or backward in this race.

RB Saquon Barkley is on pace to approach Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing yard figure, and if he gets there - could really contend for this honor, despite not being a quarterback.

Lamar Jackson (and the Ravens) suffered a demoralizing loss to Philadelphia this weekend, seemingly dialing back whatever hype or momentum surrounding the Baltimore franchise until further notice.

Philly’s refusal to go away should keep Goff & the Lions motivated all the way through Week 18, but it won’t be an easy run for Detroit: Green Bay, Buffalo, @ Chicago, @ San Francisco, Minnesota.

Mahomes doesn’t have the surface stats to belong in this conversation, but his efficiency and timely clutch performances along with a sparkling 11-1 record keep him relevant (for now). 

Kirk Cousins’ Downslide

Despite losing three straight, the Falcons still find themselves atop a miserable NFC South. In those three losses, QB Kirk Cousins has posted a 61 Passer Rating, throwing for 0 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The fanbase is now on high alert, especially with newly drafted Michael Penix, Jr. awkwardly waiting in the wings.

Contractually speaking, Cousins $27.5M salary for 2025 is already fully guaranteed. A $10M roster bonus for 2026 will become fully guaranteed on March 16th. An outright release next March means $65M of dead cap. A trade next March means $37.5M of dead cap (though Cousins holds a full no trade clause). At this point, the contract is still telling us that Cousins likely remains with Atlanta through 2025, but patience may prove to be impossible soon.

Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 Finale

After months of intense rehab to repair an achilles injury, RB Christian McCaffrey’s return to the field appears to be short-lived, after a PCL injury against Buffalo likely has him sidelined for the remainder of 2024.

McCaffrey signed a renegotiated contract with the 49ers this past June that put him under contract through the 2027 season, including $8.5M guaranteed through 2025. Assuming a return to full health, the 28 ½ year old should be back to collect another $16.2M total next season, raising his career earnings to nearly $98M.

Trevor Lawrence Torpedoed

Following one of the dirtier plays in years, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence sustained a serious head/brain injury that will likely end his 2024 campaign, furthering the concern for Jacksonville’s clear roster deficiencies this offseason.

Lawrence is finishing out Year 1 of a 7 year, $306.3M contract that includes $202M of practical guarantees through 2028. His team-friendly $17M cap figure for 2025 should aid in the continued build-up of the roster, though this weekend’s injury will be something to monitor for the remainder of his career.

Taysom Hill’s Tenure in New Orleans

Despite a plethora of passing-oriented incentives built into his contract, Taysom Hill never developed into an NFL-worthy QB. That didn’t stop him from becoming one of the most impactful Saints players over the past 5 years, as a tight end, rusher, & special teamer.

A serious knee injury this weekend almost certainly ends his 2024 campaign, but will it also bring his tenure in New Orleans to a close as well? The 34-year-old  has 1 year, $10M (non-guaranteed) remaining on his contract.

With the midway point of the 2024 NFL season now in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to reassess where each starting quarterback stands in terms of their stability on the field, but also contractually speaking going forward.

Kyler Murray (ARZ)

4 years, $157.8M Remaining

3 years, $111.5M Practical

The Cardinals have turned a corner and Murray is back to producing at his peak. This was one of the contracts on a watch list 6 months ago. That’s no longer the case. Furthermore, Arizona hasn’t had to touch this deal from a cap perspective through three seasons, and may not need to again in 2025 ($45.6M cap against a potential $270M league threshold).

Kirk Cousins (ATL)

3 years, $117.5M Remaining

1 year, $50M Practical

The numbers are down both in terms of efficiency and total production, but there’s still time for Cousins and his new offense to find a little more rhythm. It’s still very likely that Atlanta sticks with Cousins through the 2025 season before turning the keys over to Michael Penix Jr., but it’s not entirely impossible that that discussion begins this coming offseason.

Lamar Jackson (BLT)

3 years, $147.5M Remaining

2 years, $95.5M Practical

The two-time MVP remains an MVP candidate - if not favorite, heading toward December. All $43.5M of Jackson’s 2025 compensation is fully guaranteed already, and $29M of his 2026 salary locks in this coming March. Baltimore likely keeps his $43.65M cap hit in place next season, as things jump quickly thereafter ($74.65M).

Josh Allen (BUF)

4 years, $129.5M Remaining

1 year, $14.5M Practical

Buffalo quietly adjusted Allen’s deal this past spring, pulling $30M of cash forward (and building in a nice incentive package) for 2024 to sweeten his pot. The move however leaves him with just $14.5M to be earned in 2025, the last year of his deal with early vesting guarantees. Teams generally don’t rip up contracts with four years remaining on them, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the Bills and Allen are at the negotiating table in the coming months, discussing an APY that’s double his current $32.5M remaining. 

Bryce Young (CAR)

2 years, $10.1M + Option Remaining

2 years, $10.1M Practical

Not exactly how they drew it up on draft night, but Young has fared better since returning from a mini-benching early on in 2024. The Panthers have an awful lot to improve upon this coming offseason, but starting over at the QB position probably isn’t a priority - yet.

Caleb Williams (CHI)

3 years, $13.1M + Option Remaining

3 years, $13.1M Practical

Williams and the Bears offense haven’t exactly meshed together out of the gate, and the 22-year-old is now already on to his 2nd offensive coordinator in the league. Chicago has time and resources to turn this around quickly if it’s developed and managed properly. Ben Johnson may soon have the largest contract offer in NFL coaching history.

Joe Burrow (CIN)

5 years, $198.8M Remaining

3 years, $107.8M Practical

A healthy Burrow has rounded right back into top form this season, posting near-career-highs as we head toward December. The 27-year-old earned the biggest payday on his entire contract this season ($65.7M), and is early vested through the 2027 season.

Deshaun Watson (CLE)

2 years, $92M Remaining

2 years, $92M Practical

Unfortunately, we’re running out of new ways to discuss this one. An achilles injury torpedoed what was already a miserable 2024 campaign, adding further pressure on the Browns’ organization to seriously consider making a rash decision on this albatross of a contract. We’re an offseason removed from Denver taking on $85M of dead cap ($38M cash) to move off of Russell Wilson. For the Browns to move on from Watson, we’re talking about $172.7M of dead cap ($92M cash). Alternatively, Watson’s cap hit in 2025 is currently $72.935M, so another cap-conversion just to keep the rest of the roster intact is likely, making for more pain in 2026-2027.

Dak Prescott (DAL)

4 years, $187.75M Remaining

3 years, $132.75M Practical

Off to a rocky start (including season-ending hamstring surgery), Dak’s contract is fully secured through 2025 right now, and practically guaranteed through 30% of 2028 compensation. The Cowboys have a big offseason coming up to reset their window.

Bo Nix (DEN)

3 years, $7.4M + Option Remaining

3 years, $7.4M Practical

The Broncos went all-in on turning over a new leaf at the QB position, and early marks say it’s panned out. Russell Wilson’s $32M dead cap hit in 2025 stings, but it’s offset nicely by at least two more years of maximum value from this Nix contract. The 24-year-old won’t become extension-eligible until after the 2026 season.

Jared Goff (DET)

4 years, $160M Remaining

3 years, $113M Practical

Goff is now headlining the most explosive offense in football, putting up efficiency numbers that sit atop the league (and some all-time lists as well currently). Furthermore, he holds a very manageable $32.6M cap hit in 2025 (which can be lowered to $19.2M per a cap conversion), allowing the Lions plenty of room to operate this coming offseason.

Jordan Love (GB)

4 years, $152M Remaining

2 years, $84M Practical

The Packers wasted no time locking up Love after he sat behind Aaron Rodgers for the better part of 3+ seasons. As per usual with Green Bay’s contracts, Love’s deal is heavy cash front-loaded ($79M) which affords them both cap & cash flexibility moving forward. Love is cap friendly ($29.7M, $36.1M) through 2026.

C.J. Stroud (HOU)

2 years, $9.7M + Option Remaining

2 years, $9.7M Practical

The honeymoon is over with Stroud and this Houston team, but things still look extremely positive in both regards. The Texans will gain at least one more season of maximum value from this rookie contract ($9.9M in 2025) before Stroud will be extension-eligible. If things stay on their current path, he’ll be in line to reset an already soaring market next winter.

Anthony Richardson (IND)

2 years, $9.1M + Option Remaining

2 years, $9.1M Practical

An injury plagued rookie season has now been compounded by poor play, and a mini benching in Year 2. It’s safe to say that the 2025 offseason will be a big one both for Richardson and his future as a QB1, and for this Colts organization as they push to remain relevant in the AFC South.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

6 years, $267.3M Remaining

4 years, $163M Practical

Lawrence and the Jaguars agreed to keep this marriage together for the better part of 5 more seasons this past summer, and early returns aren’t great. The good part? Lawrence’s cap hits over the next two seasons ($17M, $24M respectively) give the Jags plenty of flexibility to improve this roster as needed - and it’s needed.

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

7 years, $315.5M Remaining

3 years, $160M Practical

The Chiefs sweetened the middle portion of Mahomes’ contract to account for the fact that the best football player on the planet was drastically underpaid (due to a terrible contract decision). That maneuver should hold both sides over through 2027, but 32-year-old Mahomes should be in position to reset the sports contract market thereafter.

Justin Herbert (LAC)

5 years, $222.5M Remaining

4 years, $172.5M Practical

Herbert is putting together his overall best season to date in 2024, setting the Chargers up to quickly rebuild this roster into a true Harbaugh machine as quickly as possible. Herbert’s contract is secured through 2027, with $25M of 2028 compensation also carrying an early trigger.

Matthew Stafford (LAR)

2 years, $62M Remaining

$4M Guaranteed

Stafford’s contract was tweaked a bit this summer to dedicate a bit more cash to 2024, and fully guarantee a $4M roster bonus due next March. While it seems unlikely that the Rams would move on after 2024, the contract certainly allows for it. Crazier things have happened in LA.

Gardner Minshew (LV)

1 year, $12.5M Remaining

$3.16M Guaranteed

Minshew has worked in and out of the starting role thus far in 2024, putting his future in serious doubt. The Raiders can free up $6.18M of 2025 salary cap by releasing him next March, but they’ll need to pay him $3.16M out the door.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

4 years, $192.5M Remaining

2 years, $109M Practical

Tua’s career seems to be hanging in the balance every time he steps on the field, but the simple fact of the matter is that Miami is a much better football team when he’s out there. Contractually, the Dolphins are tied to all $51M of his 2025 compensation, while $54M of 2026 salary fully guarantees this coming March.

Sam Darnold (MIN)

Pending Free Agent

The shine on Darnold’s season has worn off a bit, but he still pegs to be the most notable free agent quarterback on the open market this March. Will there be a slam dunk starting opportunity for him out there? If so, Baker Mayfield’s 3 year, $100M re-up in Tampa Bay seems a likely starting point. Behind him, J.J. McCarthy has 3 years, $8.5M plus an option through 2028.

Drake Maye (NE)

3 years, $12.4M + Option Remaining

3 years, $12.4M Practical

Maye’s progression out of the gate - despite an underwhelming offense around him - has been one of the brighter spots of 2024 thus far. The Patriots, and their league high $100M+ cap space, could be poised for a massive offseason to ramp up and get the most out of Maye while he holds max value.

Derek Carr (NO)

2 years, $90M Remaining

$10M Guaranteed

When healthy, Carr’s been an efficient option for an underperforming Saints team, and New Orleans doesn’t appear to have their next QB1 currently rostered. While Carr’s deal does offer a soft out after 2024, it seems likely that he’ll get one more year out of this contract before all parties cut ties.

Daniel Jones (NYG)

2 years, $78M Remaining

$23M injury guarantee

Jones’ time in NY is dwindling. There’s simply no other way to look at it right now. His contract carries a $23M injury guarantee for the 2025 season, and with 2024 more than half gone, it’s just smart business for the Giants to sit him down and preserve their ability to release him next March, a move that will free up at least $19.4M of cap ($30.5M if Post June 1st). 

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

1 year, $37.5M Remaining

No future guarantee

Rodgers and Jets have been largely disappointing in 2024, setting up an awful lot of big decisions from the top down this winter. If Rodgers wants to continue his career, it seems plausible that the Jets would strongly consider keeping him through 2025 (unless Jordan Travis becomes an offseason star), but so much of this depends on how chips fall with the GM/Coaching Staff, etc… in the coming weeks. If this is it for Rodgers and the Jets (release/retirement/trade), NYJ will need to take on $49M of unallocated bonus dead cap going forward.

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

4 years, $195M Remaining

3 years, $144M Practical

The Hurts contract was looking like a problem prior to 2024, but he’s mostly righted the ship thus far this season, navigating his Eagles squad into 2 seed contention in the NFC. The 26-year-old is mostly guaranteed through 2026 right now, with early vesting triggers leading through the 2027 season.

Russell Wilson (PIT)

Pending Free Agent

Wilson hasn’t looked back since taking over the QB1 role from Justin Fields 4 weeks ago, setting himself up for a potential contract extension to remain as such for the next year or two. The projected $42M franchise tag seems a bit much for this current situation right now, and it’s unclear if other teams would be bidding for Wilson’s services just yet, but all of it should be on the table at this point.

Geno Smith (SEA)

1 year, $25M Remaining

Non-Guaranteed

The final year of Smith’s contract in Seattle includes a $10M roster bonus due March 16th (which could escalate a bit based on 2024 incentives). The 34-year-old’s efficiency numbers are largely down, but the overall production has remained consistent for the better part of 2 ½ seasons. A healthy set of weapons down the stretch could help to solidify his role in 2025. The Seahawks can free up $25M of cap space if they decide to cut ties.

Brock Purdy (SF)

1 year, $1.11M Remaining

Non-Guaranteed

Quite possibly the biggest name to watch as the calendar turns to 2025, Purdy has a very strong chance of resetting the NFL contract market - an unimaginable feat for a former #262 overall draft pick. The Niners may try to slow play this and make him play out his rookie contract before finalizing anything significant, but Purdy & his representation likely won’t stand for that this offseason.

Baker Mayfield (TB)

2 years, $70M Remaining

$10M Guaranteed

At this point the question isn’t will Mayfield and the Buccaneers continue on together, it’s will Mayfield agree to remain in this contract? He enters Week 11 with a Passer Rating north of 103, a Completion Percent north of 70, and  24/9 TD/INT split. The Bucs probably want him to remain on the $30M salary through 2025 before discussing something new, but it’s a powerful time for legitimate QB1s in this league.

Will Levis (TEN)

2 years, $3.61M Remaining

$2.85M Guaranteed

It’s been a miserable go around for Levis in his sophomore campaign when combining both injury & poor play. There’s a very realistic chance that Tennessee signs or drafts his replacement this coming spring, pushing Levis into a backup role, or simply buying out his remaining contract to move on completely ($4.8M dead cap).

Jayden Daniels (WSH)

3 years, $12.67M + Option Remaining

3 years, $12.67M Practical

So far so good, though a recent injury has slowed the honeymoon phase of Daniels’ rookie campaign dramatically. The Commanders have notable pieces in place on both sides of the ball right now, setting up what could be a very aggressive offseason now that they have a taste of legitimacy for the first time in a long time.

As we turn the page into the second half of the 2024 regular season, the time to start collecting potential offseason contract decisions begins now. Spotrac starts that process with a look at players who are trending toward signing a contract that would reset their respective position’s market.

RELATED: Spotrac’s Market Values

QUARTERBACK: Brock Purdy

Market Highs:
APY: $60M
Guarantee: $231M
APY of Cap: 24.47%

I know, I can’t believe I’m saying it either, but enough is enough. The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant has become one of the most efficient passers in football, enters Week 11 as the #8 ranked QB in football according to PFF, and now carries a valuation near $60M in our system.

He’s under contract through 2025 at $1.1M, but it’s tough to imagine him (or agent Kyle Strongin) letting things go any further without a substantial pay raise. There’s a very clear path to that raise now coming in at or above Dak Prescott’s 4 year, $240M mark.

Prediction: 4 years, $250M

RUNNING BACK: None

Market Highs:
APY: $19M
Guarantee: $26.5M
APY of Cap: 7.44%

James Conner, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, & JK Dobbins lead the pending free agent class, while Kyren Williams, Brian Robinson, & Kenneth Walker can be considered early extension candidates.

WIDE RECEIVER: Ja’Marr Chase

Market Highs:
APY: $35M
Guarantee: $110M
APY of Cap:13.70%

Despite an offseason “hold-in” as he attempted to lock in an extension, Chase is on pace to obliterate his career highs (100 receptions, 1,455 yards, 13 TDs). With Tee Higgins’ likely moving on in free agency next March, Cincinnati will have no excuse but to give their former #5 overall pick an exceptional pay raise. Not to mention, the Bengals will be looking to significantly lower his current $21.8M cap hit for 2025, stemming from a fully guaranteed 5th-year option.

Chase currently holds an even $32M valuation in our system, projecting toward a 4 year, $128M extension. Justin Jefferson’s $35M per year is the current top mark among Wide Receivers.

Prediction: 4 years, $145M

TIGHT END: George Kittle

Market Highs:
APY: $17.125M
Guarantee: $40.1M
APY of Cap: 7.81%

Kittle will be entering a contract year in 2025, set to earn a non-guaranteed $15M. The 31-year-old has been exceptionally reliable over the past 4 seasons, and currently ranks as the #1 Tight End in football according to PFF.

The only real precedent we have for a TE maxing out at this age is Travis Kelce’s renegotiation in Kansas City (2 years, $34.5M) this past summer. Kittle’s valuation puts him right there (2 years, $32.5M). 

Prediction: 2 years, $36M

TACKLE: Rashawn Slater

Market Highs:
APY: $28.12M
Guarantee: $88.2M
APY of Cap: 11.1%

The #13 overall pick from 2021 has lived up to the hype, and now combines with newly drafted Joe Alt as maybe the best bookend pairing in all of football. With QB Justin Herbert now fully locked in for the foreseeable future, aligning Slater with him should be a priority this coming winter.

Slater is under contract through 2025 on a fully guaranteed $19M salary, holding a $22.3M valuation in our system. Mathematically speaking, he’s a long way off of Tristan Wirf’s league-high $28.1M APY, but the rising salary cap and further need for consistency across an OL could force the Chargers to play ball near the top of this market. Indy’s Bernhard Raimann & Seattle’s Charles Cross could also be in consideration here.

Prediction: 5 years, $130M

GUARD: Trey Smith

Market Highs:
APY: $21M
Guarantee: $63M
APY of Cap: 9.61%

The last thing the Chiefs need is another important piece of their puzzle in need of a top of the market contract - but here we are. The former 6th round pick out of Tennessee has improved mightily each year, culminating with career bests in 2024 thus far.

Mathematically speaking he’s a $19M player in our system, so a push to Landon Dickerson’s $21M per year mark isn’t far off.

Prediction: 4 years, $88M

CENTER: Tyler Linderbaum

Market Highs:
APY: $18M
Guarantee: $50.3M
APY of Cap: 7.4%

The Ravens 1st Round Pick back in 2022 has progressively improved each of his first three seasons, and can now be classified as one of the best (and most reliable) centers in all of football. Linerbaum will become extension-eligible for the first time after 2024, and the Ravens will have the ability to exercise a 5th-year option for the 2026 season, so time isn’t of the essence here. But it seems to be only a matter of time before big dollars come his way.

Prediction: No Extension until 2026

INTERIOR DEFENDER: None

Market Highs:
APY: $31.75M
Guarantee: $95M
APY of Cap: 12.4%

B.J. Hill, Chauncey Golston, & Levi Onwuzurike headline the pending free agent class, while Travis Jones, D.J. Reader, & David Onyemata represent early potential extension candidates.

EDGE DEFENDER: T.J. Watt / Micah Parsons

Market Highs:
APY: $34M APY
Guarantee: $122.5M
APY of Cap:15.34%

Watt will be entering a contract year in 2025, set to earn $21.05M (the same compensation he’s earning in 2024). The newly 30-year-old is still performing at a Defensive Player of the Year level, which should prompt the Steelers into lowering his current $30.4M cap hit with an extension this coming offseason. Watt holds a $32M valuation in our system, so it shouldn’t take much to get past Nick Bosa’s mark.

Parsons will be entering his 5th-year option year in 2025, set to earn a fully guaranteed $21.3M. While an ankle injury has greatly limited his 2024 season thus far, it’s extremely hard to imagine that Parsons shows up to any offseason workouts without a new deal. Has he done enough to warrant a $35M+ per year extension? The math ($29M) says no, but logic says otherwise.

Predictions: Watt: 3 years, $120M; Parsons: 4 years, $150M

OFF-BALL LINEBACKER: None

Market Highs:
APY: $20M APY
Guarantee: $60M
APY of Cap:10.4%

A position that continues to be devalued more and more every offseason appears to have one of its weakest classes ahead of it in terms of both pending free agents, and potential extension candidates. We’ll be seeking late additions to bring to this list before March, but for now, expect a lot of near minimum contract value signings.

CORNERBACK: TBD

Market Highs:
APY: $24.1M
Guarantee: $77.5M
APY of Cap:10.7%

After Patrick Surtain II ($24M APY) & Jalen Ramsey ($24.1M APY) took the cornerback market to a much needed new level, we entered the 2024 season eyeing three more players, Trent McDuffie, Ahmad Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr., as “next in line”. All three however are having slight step back years based on their own set expectations, and could opt to play out another year before locking anything in. With that said, any of those three players could very easily become the first $25M CB in football.

A few more names to watch here: Buffalo’s Christian Benford, San Francisco’s Deommodore Lenoir.

SAFETY: Kerby Joseph

Market Highs:
APY: $21M APY
Guarantee: $51.5M
APY of Cap: 9.2%

Joseph and teammate Brian Branch may not just be the best 1-2 punch in all of football, they may be the best two safeties in all of football period. The former 3rd rounder will be entering a contract year in 2025, set to earn $1.4M through the 2025 season.

Detroit fed a lot of mouths in the 2024 offseason, but Joseph just turned 23 years old and seems a lock to be a factor for this defense over the next 3-4 seasons at least. He projects toward a 4 year, $94M extension in our system, putting him in great shape to top this market when it’s all said and done.

Prediction: 4 years, $85M

The November 5th trade deadline has come and gone, but not without a few eye-raising moves across the league. Spotrac dives into every official trade over the course of the last month, offering up the full details, updated player contracts, and financial ramifications for each.

RELATED: NFL TRADE TRACKER

Commanders acquire CB Marshon Lattimore from the Saints

Conceivably the biggest move based on compensation, Washington shored up their secondary with a splashy addition on deadline day.

TRADE DETAILS

Washington Acquires
Marshon Lattimore (CB)
2025 5th round pick

New Orleans Acquires
2025 3rd round pick
2025 4th round pick
2025 6th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT


Lattimore brings over a $605,000 salary for the remainder of 2024, then $18M in 2025, & $18.5M for the 2026 season. None of the future salary is guaranteed right now, though a $2M roster bonus is set to vest on March 16th. It stands to reason that, based on the compensation given up, Washington has its eyes set on at least one more year out of this contract.

The Saints take on a whopping $45.6M of dead cap per this move, including just over $14M in 2024, & $31.6M in 2025. New Orleans already has $48M+ in dead cap allocated to next season.

Lions Acquire D Za’Darius Smith from the Browns

Rumored for a few days now, the Lions sealed the deal with Cleveland Tuesday morning, bringing over edge rusher Za’Darius Smith to help fill the hole left by Aidan Hutchinson’s long-term injury.

TRADE DETAILS

Detroit Acquires
Za'Darius Smith (DE)
2026 7th round pick

Cleveland Acquires
2025 5th round pick
2026 6th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT


Smith brings over a $605,000 salary for the rest of 2024, then $11M of non-guaranteed compensation slated for 2025, including a $2M roster bonus due March 14th. The void years on the contracts are in place for a $6.99M option bonus that Detroit can exercise in 2025. However, Smith can be released/traded after 2024 with no dead cap left behind.

Ravens Acquire CB Tre’Davious White from the Rams

The former 1st round pick has battled injuries since 2021, and was a part-time contributor for the Rams through 9 weeks. With Los Angeles likely on the brink of releasing him, the Ravens swept in with a 7th round pick swap to add a little depth to their secondary.

TRADE DETAILS

Baltimore Acquires
Tre'Davious White (CB) ($1,220,588)
2027 7th round pick

Los Angeles Acquires
2026 7th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

The Ravens acquire a $750,000 guaranteed salary for the remainder of 2024, plus $58,823 per game that White is active for them. The 29-year-old is slated for free agency again next March.

The 49ers Acquire DT Khalil Davis from Houston

Davis took 32% of the Texans’ snaps through 9 weeks, compiling 9 tackles & a sack during that timespan. He doesn’t figure to carry a larger role in San Francisco, but should give the Niners needed depth after the loss of Javon Hargrave for the season.

TRADE DETAILS

San Francisco Acquires
Khalil Davis (DT) ($620,588)

Houston Acquires
2026 7th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT
Davis brings over a $550,000 base salary for the next 9 weeks, plus $8,832 per game active through the regular season.

Steelers Acquire EDGE Preston Smith from the Packers

The rich got a little richer here, as the phenomenal Steelers’ defense added another experienced, productive weapon in Smith, who is under term through the 2025 season if all goes well. A combination of Green Bay’s interest in moving off of Smith’s contract + the $2M and change remaining made this a potential steal price for Pittsburgh.

TRADE DETAILS

Pittsburgh Acquires
Preston Smith (DE) ($2,023,529)

Green Bay Acquires
2025 7th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

Smith brings over $1.6M of fully guaranteed salary remaining for the next 9 weeks, plus $52,941 per game active. The contract holds a non-guaranteed $13.4M in 2025, & another $14.1M in 2026 if the Steelers want to continue this marriage.

The Packers take on just over $12M of dead cap in 2024, plus another $9.8M for the 2025 season.

Steelers Acquire WR Mike WIlliams from the Jets

The Steelers have been in search of another experienced wideout since May, and that finally came to fruition with the acquisition of Williams, who had quickly fallen out of favor in Aaron Rodgers’ offense. He’ll join George Pickens & Van Jefferson as the primary wide receivers for Russell Wilson going forward.

TRADE DETAILS

Pittsburgh Acquires
Mike Williams (WR) ($627,500)

New York Acquires
2025 5th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

The Steelers take on $627,500 of remaining salary for the next 9 weeks, as the Jets had converted the Williams contract into a signing bonus based structure prior to the start of the season. The maneuver means dead cap hits of $2.1M this year, and another $5.8M in 2025, but it helped secure a strong 5th round pick for the Jets per this move. Williams is slated for free agency once again next March.

Cowboys Acquire WR Jonathan Mingo from Carolina

Dallas appears poised to begin reconstructing their underwhelming roster early on this time around, taking a flier on a former #39 overall pick who has done little to establish himself in the league. Many will point to the 4th round pick compensation as an overpay here - and by all accounts it likely is - but a 23-year-old top draft pick with $4M remaining over the next 2 ½ years could end up being a steal, if a lot of things go right.

TRADE DETAILS

Dallas Acquires
Jonathan Mingo (WR) ($576,286)
2025 7th round pick

Carolina Acquires
2025 4th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

As noted above, Mingo is under contract through the 2026 season, including $576k for the remainder of 2024, a fully guaranteed $1.5M through 2025, and $1.95M through 2026, of which $812k is fully guaranteed. 4th round pick notwithstanding, this is a low financial risk move for Dallas.

Bengals Acquire RB Khalil Herbert from Chicago

A season-ending neck injury for Zack Moss, and a bruised rib or two for Chase Brown put Cincy in a position of need at running back. Herbert, who was relegated to minimal snaps in Chicago behind D’Andre Swift & Roschon Johnson, should slot into the RB2 role immediately, and could provide late season value at a $527,500/7th round pick cost.

TRADE DETAILS

Cincinnati Acquires
Khalil Herbert (RB) ($527,500)

Chicago Acquires
2025 7th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

Herbert brings over a prorated $527,500 minimum salary for the remainder of 2024, and is slated for unrestricted free agency next March. The Bears retain $560,177 of dead cap per the move.

Cardinals Acquire OLB Baron Browning from Denver

Browning figures to slot into a starting SAM linebacker role for Arizona, a team lurking around the playoff conversation, desperately trying to improve on the defensive side of the ball. The former 3rd round pick was going to be the odd man out in Denver next March, so the Broncos did well to free up $1.6M of cap/cash, while also securing themselves an additional 6th round pick.

TRADE DETAILS

Arizona Acquires
Baron Browning (OLB) ($1,558,000)

Denver Acquires
2025 6th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

Arizona takes on $1.558M for the rest of 2024, and still boast around $21M of cap space after the move. Denver retains a little over $1.76M in dead cap to move on from Browning at the deadline.

Vikings Acquire LT Cam Robinson from Jacksonville

The long-term loss of Christian Darrisaw (ACL/MCL) forced the 6-2 Vikings to take a big swing prior to the deadline. Robinson has a wealth of experience as a blindside tackle, but his $16.25M base salary for 2024 made him an expensive trade option. The Jaguars fixed that by retaining all but $2M of that salary to facilitate a trade that scored them a conditional 5th round draft pick (can convey to a 4th based on unknown playing time thresholds).

TRADE DETAILS

Minnesota Acquires
Cam Robinson (LT) ($2,117,651)
2026 7th round pick (Conditional based on playing time)

Jacksonville Acquires
2026 5th round pick (Can convey to a 4th Rd pick based on playing time)

UPDATED CONTRACT

As noted above, Jacksonville retained all but $2M of Robinson’s base salary for the rest of the season. Minnesota will also be on the hook for $58,823 per game active going forward. The 29-year-old is slated for free agency next March.

The Jaguars take on a $19.8M dead cap hit per the move, all in 2024.

Ravens Acquire WR Diontae Johnson from Carolina

Baltimore appears poised to double-down on the offensive side of the ball (despite boasting a lackluster defense through half of 2024). Johnson joins the lot of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, & Nelson Agholor to give QB Lamar Jackson plenty of speedy, versatile weapons down the stretch. The Ravens also acquired a 6th round pick from Carolina in return for a 5th round pick in next year’s draft. Based on current standings, Baltimore’s 5th and Carolina’s 6th round picks could be fairly close in line.

TRADE DETAILS

Baltimore Acquires
Diontae Johnson (WR) ($625,000)
2025 6th round pick

Carolina Acquires
2025 5th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

In order to secure a 5th round pick out of the deal, Carolina retained all but $625,000 of Johnson’s remaining salary, making this a financial steal for Baltimore over the course of the next 10 weeks. The pending free agent leaves behind a $9.375M dead cap hit to the Panthers per the move.

The Chiefs Acquire DE Josh Uche from New England

Kansas City made a great defense even deeper by acquiring Uche for their (latest) stretch run. The 26-year-old cost the Chiefs a 6th round pick, but that could be superseded by a compensatory draft pick if Uche does well in free agency next March.

TRADE DETAILS

Kansas City Acquires
Joshua Uche (OLB) ($1,022,220)

New England Acquires
2026 6th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

Uche brings over a $722,220 guaranteed salary, plus $30,000 per game active to the Chiefs for the remainder of 2024. There are also attainable sack incentives built into his deal that KC may need to account for next year.

The Patriots free up about $1M of cap/cash space here, furthering their position in 2025, where they currently project to hold a league high $137M of cap room.

Seattle & Tennessee Swap Linebackers

The Seahawks acquired Ernest Jones from the Tennessee Titans, who take on Jerome Baker and a 4th round pick in the deal. Jones, a cast-off from the LA Rams, slots into an immediate starting role in Seattle, and could be considered an extension candidate before he’s allowed to hit the open market next March. Baker slides into a reserve role in Tennessee, but the Titans were likely much more concerned about banking another 4th round pick in this move.

TRADE DETAILS

Seattle Acquires
Ernest Jones (ILB) ($1,904,221)

Tennessee Acquires
Jerome Baker (ILB) ($1,810,971)
2025 4th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT
Ernest Jones

Jones brings a $1.9M salary with him to Seattle for the remaining 10 weeks of the 2024 season, and is scheduled for free agency next March.

Jerome Baker

Baker brings along $1.23M of guaranteed salary with him to Tennessee, plus $57,500 per game active for the remainder of the 2024 season. The 28-year-old is slated for free agency next March.

Chiefs Acquire WR DeAndre Hopkins from Tennessee

The expected big splash from Kansas City came on October 23rd, when Tennessee shipped their WR1 to the Chiefs in exchange for a conditional 5th round pick. Hopkins has already made an immediate impact in the KC offense, showing seemingly instantaneous chemistry with QB Patrick Mahomes.

TRADE DETAILS

Kansas City Acquires
DeAndre Hopkins (WR) ($4,368,610)

Tennessee Acquires
2025 5th round pick (Conveys to a 4th if KC makes the Super Bowl & Hopkins plays 60% regular season snaps)

UPDATED CONTRACT

The Chiefs take on a total of $3.87M cash for Hopkins out of the gate, though it stands to reason that the 32-year-old could hit an incentive threshold or two over the next 10 weeks. Kansas City converted about $2.4M of his salary into a signing bonus to reduce the cap hit the rest of the way, so they’ll be stuck with around $1.85M of dead cap next year once the contract officially voids.

Tennessee takes on dead cap hits of $11.9M this year, and $10.9M next year, and could be headed for a much bigger rebuild starting next March.

Vikings Acquire RB Cam Akers from Houston

Minnesota brought back a familiar face to help handcuff Aaron Jones for the rest of the 2024 season. Houston & Minnesota processed a late round pick swap (7th for 6th) to facilitate this trade.

TRADE DETAILS

Minnesota Acquires
Cam Akers (RB) ($770,587)
2026 7th round pick

Houston Acquires
2026 6th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

Akers brings over $750,000 in remaining salary, plus $2,941 per game active the rest of the way. With 53 yards from scrimmage in his Vikings debut, he’s already providing value.

Bills Acquire WR Amari Cooper from Cleveland

It took the Bills 7 weeks to decide that they simply didn’t have enough pass-catching firepower for Josh Allen to properly produce with. That changed on October 15th, when Buffalo swiped Cooper from a sinking Browns team in exchange for a 3rd round pick and a late round swap.

TRADE DETAILS

Buffalo Acquires
Amari Cooper (WR) ($806,667)
2025 6th round pick

Cleveland Acquires
2025 3rd round pick ((from DET))
2026 7th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

If you think the Bills gave up a lion’s share to bring in Cooper - now you know why. The Browns had previously paid out $19.2M of salary to Cooper, leaving just $806k remaining per the trade to Buffalo. The 30-year-old is slated for free agency next March.

Cleveland takes on dead cap hits of $7.9M this season, and $22.5M for 2025, thanks to remaining proration of salary converted to signing bonuses.

Jets Acquire WR Davante Adams from Las Vegas

The thing we all thought should happen, then could happen, did happen. Adams reunites with Aaron Rodgers for the final 11 weeks of the season, bringing over a contract with 2 ½ years remaining on it. In return the Raiders secure a 3rd round pick that can convey down to a 2nd if Adams or the Jets do special things.

TRADE DETAILS

New York Acquires
Davante Adams (WR) ($11,870,000)

Las Vegas Acquires
2025 3rd round pick (Conveys to a 2nd Rd Pick if Adams is an All-Pro, or active for the AFC Championship Game/Super Bowl)

UPDATED CONTRACT

The Jets take on $11.87M of remaining salary for Adams, but they quickly converted $10.45M of that into a signing bonus for cap purposes. Going forward, Adams holds non-guaranteed salaries of $36.25M in each of 2025 & 2026, making it highly unlikely that the Jets keep him on this contract after the 2024 season (even if they plan to keep him around longer).

The Raiders now take on dead cap hits of $13.57M for 2024, and $15.7M in 2025. They paid Adams almost $56M for 2 ½ years of service.

Seattle Acquires DT Roy Robertson-Harris from Jacksonville

The first big move of the trade season, Seattle bolstered their defensive line while Jacksonville started their breakdown process when the 31-year-old defensive tackle was traded on October 14th.

TRADE DETAILS

Seattle Acquires
Roy Robertson-Harris (DT) ($1,392,156)

Jacksonville Acquires
2026 6th round pick

UPDATED CONTRACT

As you can clearly see, this has the potential to be much more than a half-year rental for Seattle. Robertson-Harris brings over $1.13M of salary, plus $23,528 per game active for 2024, with reasonable salaries of $6.6M & $6.8M through 2026 respectively. If it’s a one-and-done plan, Seattle can walk away from this contract after 2024 with no dead cap to take on.

The Jaguars retain $3.4M of dead cap this season, plus another $6.9M next season.

The 2024 Mets were a bit of a revelation, turning a dreadful start into an NLCS appearance when it was all said and done. But the offseason is here and so too are a laundry list of decisions to make and holes to fill across the roster.

Spotrac dives into a positional breakdown of where the 2025 Mets stand currently, plus a look at an 8 player, $550M free agent plan that could act as a” Plan B” to one major Juan Soto contract this winter.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agents

Position Players

In terms of everyday starters, only Pete Alonso is set to walk into free agency - though Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez, & Harrison Bader, all also headed to the open market, held large roles in 2024.

Alonso’s situation is completely fluid. It’s been reported that the Mets made a 7 year, $158M to their first baseman prior to the start of the 2024, and those same reports follow up that Alonso was in the market for an 8th year at the time. The nearly 30-year-old now hits the open market for the first time with a 6 year, $175M valuation in our system, though it’s largely believed that a multi-team bidding war can up this deal near $200M.

Elsewhere, outside of large contracts for SS Francisco Lindor (7 years, $224M remaining), & OF Brandon Nimmo (6 years, $121.5M remaining), the Mets starting lineup projects to be relatively inexpensive at the moment.

C: Francisco Alvarez (pre-arbitration)
1B: N/A
2B: Luisangel Acuna (pre-arbitration)
SS: Francisco Lindor: $32M
3B: Mark Vientos (pre-arbitration)
LF: Brandon Nimmo ($20.5M)
CF: Tyrone Taylor (estimated $3M)
RF: Starling Marte ($20.75M)
DH: Jeff McNeil ($15.75M)

The Starting Rotation

Decimated (on paper).

The Mets 2024 Opening Day Rotation
1. Kodai Senga

2. Jose Quintana

3. Luis Severino

4. Sean Manaea

5. Adrian Houser

Of this group, Senga missed nearly the entire season due to multiple injuries, but is under contract through 2027 (assuming he doesn’t opt-out after 2025). Houser was released in August after poor production & a bullpen stint. And the group of Quintana, Severino, & Manaea are all headed to free agency this week.

The Mets do have David Peterson under team control through 2026, & Tylor Megill under team control through 2027, but it’s safe to assume that NY will need to replace or re-sign at least two of these rotation spots for the upcoming season.

The Bullpen

Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Phil Maton, & Ryne Stanek are all headed to free agency but the young group of Dedniel Nunez, Jose Butto, & Reed Garrett should all be 6th, 7th, & 8th inning options for 2025. There are 3-4 depth spots to add here, and David Stearns would be smart to handcuff Edwin Diaz with a viable 9th inning colleague (possibly even old friend Devin Williams), but it’s unlikely NY allocates a ton of offseason resources to this portion of their roster.

The Looming Offseason

It should come as no surprise that the Mets, and owner Steve Cohen, have been directly tied to Juan Soto’s free agency already. Cohen has already shown once that money is no object when it comes to building this team, and Soto represents one of the most attractive building blocks in MLB Free Agency history. In a recent piece, Spotrac predicted that the bidding war for Soto could ramp things up to a contract that reaches 12 years, $660M.

Let’s assume that - despite their best efforts - the Mets don’t win the war for Soto, and instead project another way they can spend $500M+ this winter.

Sign SP Corbin Burnes: 7 years, $215M

Burnes holds a 6 year, $180M valuation in our system for his first trip to free agency, so any type of multi-team bidding war should keep him at the $30M+ per year mark rather easily. If the Yankees opt to keep Gerrit Cole off of the open market, Burnes (and to some degree Blake Snell) will be the big fish in the sea.

Re-Sign 1B Pete Alonso: 6 years, $174M

The highest average paid first baseman on a multi-year contract is Freddie Freeman at $27M per year. At $29M per year, Alonso easily eclipses that, while locking in more than the Mets reportedly offered him last spring (7 years, $158M).

Re-Sign SP Sean Manaea: 4 years, $75M

Manaea carries a $16.1M valuation in our system as he heads back to the open market, but he rose to become NYM’s ace for much of 2024. A newly crafted delivery & arm angle has him pitching with more confidence and efficiency. There will be a team or two looking to make this one of their big splashes this winter, but the Mets should have no trouble matching any offer.

Sign OF Tyler O’Neill: 3 years, $50M

Despite a bit of a banged up season O’Neill put together one of his better production years to date in Boston, collecting 18 doubles, 31 homers, and an .847 OPS. The Mets will watch Harrison Bader & Jesse Winker hit the open market, while 36-year-old Starling Marte enters a contract year and most likely can’t be counted on for 150+ games.

Sign RP David Robertson: 1 year, $12.5M

The 39-year-old spent half a season with the Mets back in 2023, and he could prove to be a perfect handcuff option for the sometimes maligned Edwin Diaz. He’s still producing at a high level despite his age, so this won’t be a “value” signing by any regards.

Sign RP Blake Treinen: 1 year, $12M + a $14M club option

If you can’t beat em’, steal from em’. Treinen returned to strong form in his 50 appearances for the Dodgers after two straight seasons lost to injury. The 36-year-old still has swing and miss stuff, and will bring a wealth of big-game pedigree to this Mets bullpen.

Sign SP Matthew Boyd: 1 year, $10M + a $12.5M club option

Boyd spent the last half of 2024 in Cleveland working his way back from 2023 Tommy John Surgery. He had all the signs of a player ready to resurrect his career, which means the Guardians will be looking to keep him at a relatively small-market price to gain value. The Mets can simply outbid here with hope that Boyd can fill the Quintana/Severino role for much of 2025.

Re-Sign Jose Iglesias: 1 year, $1.5M

This one seems like a no-brainer, all things considered. Iglesias, who can play plus defense all over the infield, proved to be a timely hitter, and a much-needed midseason spark (on and off the field) for a flailing organization. The projection here brings the 34-year-old back on the same salary as 2024, but a nice incentive package would certainly help sweeten the pot.

Guaranteed Total: $550M

RELATED: 2025 New York Mets Tax Payroll

As MLB officially flips the switch to offseason-mode, the focus immediately turns to Juan Soto, the most exciting free agent since: well Shohei Ohtani 12 months ago. We’ll take a few moments here to dive into a calculated value & predicted outcome for Soto’s free agent journey over the next few weeks.

Calculated Valuation(s)

Using Spotrac’s market value analysis (which pairs the two-year production prior to the contract of four comparable players against Soto’s last two years of production), we’re given the highest calculated valuation in our history:

14 years, $513,842,854

However, we’ve opted not to use Shohei Ohtani as a variable for this valuation for the simple reason that Soto didn’t get the Padres/Yankees 298 innings on the mound. If we factor in Ohtani’s $70M per year contract to this math, Soto’s value soars to:

14 years, $647,090,402

This is a 26% increase over our initial valuation. Let’s cut that in half to account for the lack of pitching from Soto. 

14 years, $580,642,425

Is it enough? The simple answer is no. This is what the math is telling us to report. But there aren't enough comparable players for Juan Soto. He's a rare combination of age (just turned 26) plus multi-tool production. We'll try to poke some holes into this process to get us to a number that fits a little better in this current climate.

A Logical Outcome

It’s never best practice in our opinion to give too much attention to the APY (average per year) metric, especially as it pertains to finding a player’s overall value (term & guarantee generally drive the process), but in a league like MLB that utilizes a luxury tax payroll that derives from the average salary, it’s at least in consideration.

MLB’s Highest Tax Salaries
1. Shohei Ohtani, $46.08M (10 years)
2. Zack Wheeler, $42M (3 years)
3. Aaron Judge, $40M (9 years)
4. Jacob deGrom, $37M (5 years)
5. Gerrit Cole, $36M (9 years)

It’s important to make note of the contract length here, as it’s the dividing factor that gives us the APY. Generally speaking, the top APY contracts in MLB have come from shorter term deals. Judge was able to sneak an extra year out of the Yankees, but if Soto is in consideration for a contract of 13-15 years, we’re talking about an historic combination of length & substance.

MLB’s Longest Active Contracts (APY)
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 14 years ($24.2M)
T2. Bryce Harper: 13 years ($25.3M)
T2. Giancarlo Stanton: 13 years ($25M)
T4. Julio Rodriguez: 12 years ($17.4M)
T4. Mike Trout: 12 years ($35.5M)
T4. Mookie Betts: 12 years ($30.4M)
T4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 12 years, ($27M)

Again, we see very little evidence that MLB teams have been willing to go mega-long-term with a mega-APY simultaneously. The obvious comparable here is Mike Trout, who signed his 12 year, $426.5 million extension back in March of 2019. Let’s break that down a bit:

The CBT threshold in 2019 was $206,000,000.
The CBT threshold in 2025 is $241,000,000.
This represents a 17% increase.

If we tack that 17% onto Trout’s $35,541,667 APY, we’re given a $41,584,000 figure. Trout signed for 12 years, so Soto would be looking at a 12 year, $500M contract in this comparison. But it’s largely expected that Soto’s free agent deal will come in at the 14-15 year range.

Will MLB teams be willing to keep this type of historic APY at that length? It only takes one, and on Day 1 of the 2024 offseason, it’s been reported that 11 teams have already reached out with interest in discussing a contract for Soto. That’s almost 40% of the league.

Generally speaking, especially as it pertains to free agency, we’re inclined to dial back a valuation or prediction that can often be “hot-stoved” out of proportion. But that’s just simply not the case here. The mathematical values come in (clearly) low because we simply don’t have enough variables that carry the age & across-the-board production that Soto brings to the table this winter. So in light of this, we’re going to buck our usual trepidation - and predict BIG.

A Final Prediction

Juan Soto is barely 26 years old (October 25th), and he’s already earned $82.3M on the field - without ever signing a multi-year contract. Ohtani’s 10 year contract takes him through his age 38 season, and guarantees him $742.2M of career earnings when it’s all said and done.

For Soto to eclipse this, he’ll need a contract that amounts to $660M in total value. If we align the landing age (38) with Ohtani, this would mean a 13 year contract for Soto, or an APY of $50.7M. A 14-year contract would chime in at $47.1M, running through his age-39 season, while a 15 year deal would mean a nice, clean APY of $44M, making Soto 40-years old at its completion. But we’re going to zag here at the final hour:

Ohtani’s deal exists because of an insane amount of deferred compensation ($680M). Soto and his super agent Scott Boras aren’t expected to agree to something that drastic, but it would be reckless to assume that deferred payments won’t at least be a conversation during this free agent negotiation process. So here’s our final offer, all elements included:

12 years, $660,000,000 ($215M deferred)

Spotrac celebrates the Halloween season with a look at 8 of the scarier active contracts in major professional sports, including two each from the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

Deshaun Watson (QB, Browns)

Cleveland acquired Watson from the Houston Texans then immediately signed him to a 5 year,  $230,000,000 extension through the 2026 season. The catch? Every dollar of it was fully guaranteed at the time of signing. In his 4 active seasons in Houston, Watson averaged a passer rating of 104.1. But during his time in Cleveland (of which he’s played in just 19 games), Watson’s rating has dropped to a miserable 80.8.

The Browns now have to deal with an oft-injured, subpar quarterback with over $92M left to be paid, on cap hits of $72.935M (2025), $72.935M (2026) and $26.9M (voided dead cap). The contract also holds a full no-trade clause. Terrifying.

Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys)

The Cowboys waited until the very last moment of the 2024 offseason before handing Prescott his 4 year, $240,000,000 ($231M guaranteed) extension, and they may be wishing they had waited a little longer through 8 weeks. The 31-year-old former 4th round pick is off to near career lows across the board, and as almost non-existent as a scrambling weapon out of the pocket. Dallas will need to open up their pockets further to rebuild this offense around Prescott & CeeDee Lamb, and it won’t be overly easy.

Prescott is fully guaranteed out of the gate through 2025 at $129M, and $231M of this contract will fully vest by early March 2027. Chilling.

Anthony Rendon (3B, Angels)

The Angels signed Rendon to a 7 year, $245,000,000 free agent contract immediately after he helped the Nationals win a miracle World Series title in 2019. In his last 5 seasons with Washington (2015-19), Rendon averaged 133 games played per season, with a 4.6 annual WAR. In his 5 seasons with LAA thus far (2020-24), Rendon has averaged 51 games played, with a 0.7 WAR.

The contract still holds fully guaranteed salaries of $38M for 2025 & $38M in 2026, and a full no-trade clause. Frightful.

Kris Bryant (OF/DH, Rockies)

The Rockies, fresh off of a 74-87, 4th-place 2021 season, signed Bryant away from the Giants to a 7 year, $182M contract. It was a cringe-worthy move then, and it remains as such 3 years later. To be fair, Bryant’s resurgence in 2021 (after a year and a half nosedive), gave teams a sense of irrational confidence when he hit the open market for the first time.

It wound up being fool’s gold however, as the 32-year-old carries a -1.03 WAR in 3 full seasons with the Rockies. The contract still has another 4 years, $104M to go, with a full no-trade clause to make things even more fun. Hair-Raising.

Jonathan Huberdeau (F, Flames)

The Flames acquired the rights to Huberdeau in a massive trade that sent Matthew Tkachuk to Florida, then extended the former #3 overall pick to an 8 year, $84M contract. He posted 115 points (30 goals, 85 assists) for the Panthers in the 2021-22 season. He’s collected 107 points in his 2+ seasons with Calgary since.

Huberdeau’s $10.5M AAV/Cap Hit ranks 10th in the NHL among forwards. He’s owed another $73.5M through the 2030-31 season. Blood-Curling.

Shea Weber (D, Utah)

Alright, this one’s a bit of low-hanging fruit, as Weber has been unable to take the ice since the 2020-21 season due to lingering foot/ankle/knee/thumb injuries - but it remains on the books nevertheless. Weber agreed to a 14 year, $110M contract with the Nashville Predators back in July of 2012. What could go wrong?

He was a good/great player through the 2016-17 season before things really started to nosedive (as will happen with a mid-30s athlete). The former 2nd round pick has been traded 3 times since 2016 (mostly just as a salary cap dump), and now finds himself on the Utah Hockey Club books for each of the next two seasons.

12 years later, Weber’s $7,857,143 cap hit, which runs through the 2025-26 season, still ranks 23rd among NHL defensemen. Petrifying.

Bradley Beal (SG, Suns)

Signed a 5 year, $251,020,000 extension with the Washington Wizards in July of 2022 after a season in which he played 40 games. The last time Beal played all 82 games was 2018-19, and he’s battling an early season injury already at the time of this piece.

The contract holds salaries of $50.2M this year, $53.6M next year, with a $57.1M player option in place for 2026-27. Eye-popping numbers for what can easily be considered Phoenix’s 3rd best offensive option. Grotesque.

Jordan Poole (SG, Wizards)

Remember when Poole was going to be the “next-generation” bridge that kept the Warriors’ dynasty alive? That didn’t age well. Golden State gave Poole a 4 year, $128M rookie extension in October of 2022, then traded him to Washington the following summer with a 1st Rd Pick, a 2nd Rd  Pick & two players for Chris Paul. All of this really happened. I double-checked.

Washington is now in Year 2 of this contract, paying Poole $29.6M this season, $31.8M next year, and $34M in 2026-27. There’s time for him to play his way into better standing, but for now: Horrifying.

Chas McCormick (OF, Astros)

Projected 2025 Salary: $4.8M

After a mini-breakout in 2023, McCormick’s 2024 was a veritable disaster, compounded by a finger injury down the stretch. If he’s not moved (or non-tendered), McCormick’s time as an everyday player could be depleted in Houston. He’s arbitration-eligible through 2026.

Mason Miller (RP, Athletics)

Projected 2025 Salary: $800,000

The 26-year-old closer is still the pre-arbitration portion of his team control, with 5 more years remaining before free agency. It’ll take an A++ offer to get the Athletics to pick up the phone and move on from this kind of financial value.

Brent Rooker (OF/DH, Athletics)

Projected 2025 Salary: $3.5M

Rooker has 3 more years of team control remaining, so the Athletics don’t need to be in a rush to move him this winter. The 29-year-old has 46 doubles and 69 homers across his past two seasons, and would be a strong addition to the middle of a batting lineup. He’s a minus defender, and strikes out at a pretty aggressive rate, but if the A’s are willing to listen, there will be offers this offseason.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, Blue Jays)

Projected 2025 Salary: $28.8M

The 25-year-old rounded back into form in 2024 (30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 6.17 WAR), putting him in the driver’s seat for a bigtime payday over the course of the next 15 months. Is he part of Toronto’s long-term plans? Are the Blue Jays willing to keep the gas pedal down in 2025? If either of those answers are no, shopping Vlad Jr. ahead of his final season of team control is a must.

Bo Bichette (SS, Blue Jays)

2025 Salary: $16.5M

Bichette struggled mightily in 2025 (-0.26 WAR), posting career lows across the board. He’s fully guaranteed at $16.5M for the upcoming season before heading to the open market for the first time next winter. This would be a sell-low move for Toronto right now, who may be better off hoping he can return to form early on, before dangling the 26-year-old around the trade deadline.

Jorge Soler (OF/DH, Braves)

2025 Salary: $13M

Soler was (re)acquired at the deadline to fill the void left by Ronald Acuna Jr.’s long-term injury. He produced admirably, but is likely too expensive to keep as a depth piece going forward. His ability to produce with power should make him attractive enough to move this winter. Soler holds a $13M salary in each of 2025 & 2026.

Devin Williams (RP, Brewers)

2025 Salary: $10.5M Club Option (arbitration-eligible)

Williams became the topic of trade rumors immediately following his disastrous postseason run - but that doesn’t make this a likely move. The 30-year-old is a pending free agent after 2025, and despite the ugly finish - is in line to cost a fortune going forward. But Milwaukee has a clear path to win the NL Central again in 2025, and keeping their closer in the fold only helps that.

Jordan Montgomery (SP, Diamondbacks)

2025 Salary: $22.5M Player Option

It’s unclear just how ugly things got behind the scenes between the D-Backs and Montgomery, who was relegated to the bullpen for much of 2024. It’s a veritable lock that he picks up his $22.5M option for 2025, but will Arizona look to flip the nearly 32-year-old thereafter?

Josh Naylor (1B, Guardians)

Projected 2025 Salary: $14.2M

Naylor popped 31 homers in 2024, a career-high, but still finds himself amidst trade rumors as the offseason approaches. His final year of arbitration comes with a sizable salary increase, and the Guardians are always conscious about budgeting properly in any given season. Naylor was a coveted trade candidate in the winter of 2023, so it’s safe to assume that he’ll have plenty of suitors again this time around.

Jesús Luzardo (SP, Marlins)

Projected 2025 Salary: $8.6M

Luzardo battled injury and poor results all season, so Miami would be selling him at a low point. However, the 27-year-old is arbitration-eligible through 2026, giving interested teams a chance to settle him into their rotation a bit with financial value.

Jeff McNeil (2B, Mets)

2025 Salary: $15.75M

This might be a bit of wishful thinking here, as McNeil hasn’t hit anywhere near consistent enough to justify his 4 year, $50M contract. He’s owed $15.75M each of 2025 & 2026, and the Mets have youngsters Luisangel Acuna & Ronny Mauricio ready to fill a 2B/OF spot next spring. If NY is willing to pay down some of the owed salary, there may be a trade partner or two out there.

Nick Castellanos (OF, Phillies)

2025 Salary: $20M

A worthy outfielder and power producer, Castellanos has been a fan-favorite for the better part of 3 seasons in Philly. But it stands to reason that Dave Dombrowski and company will look to shake up this roster at least a little bit. And oh by the way, an aggressive run at OF Juan Soto could also mean the need to free up both a roster spot and some salary.

Adolis García (OF, Rangers)

2025 Salary: $9.25M

After three straight seasons of both production & improvement, Garcia took a step back in 2024 (along with many Rangers). The Rangers have a few offseason holes to fill, so shedding a little salary elsewhere could be part of the process. Garcia is locked in at $9.25M through 2025, but then becomes arbitration-eligible for the final time again in 2026 before free agency in 2027.

Zack Littell (SP, Rays)

Projected 2025 Salary: $6M

The Rays have a rare surplus of starting pitching (assuming everyone returns to full health this winter). With the rest of the roster in a bit of turmoil, flipping an arm for a bat or two makes good business sense. Littell is entering his third and final arbitration season, and stands to be one of the pricier players for Tampa Bay in 2025.

Triston Casas (1B, Red Sox)

Projected 2025 Salary: $800,000

Casas has 4 years of team control remaining, including an extremely valuable pre-arbitration salary in 2025. A rib injury greatly limited his 2024 production, but this is a player who can go on a run and carry a team offensively at times. Boston has a logjam of left-handed hitters, a few really strong prospects ready to graduate to the show, and could use a bat for an arm swap this winter. Still, this move would be considered surprising, all things considered.

Jonathan India (2B, Reds)

2025 Salary: $5.45M

India’s been amidst trade rumors for awhile now, and went public with his desire for this Cincinnati front office to start writing checks to properly build up this roster. There’s enough smoke here again to think India could be shopped, though he does hold a final season of arbitration in 2026 before hitting the open market.

Cal Quantrill (SP, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $9.8M

Quantrill is entering his final year of arbitration, and the Rockies have already made public their plan to cut payroll for the upcoming season. Despite the Coors Field backdrop, Quantrill was efficient in 2024 and would slot in nicely as a #4 for many contending teams in 2025.

Austin Gomber (SP, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $5.2M

Gomber is entering his final year of arbitration, and represents a cheaper - though not as productive - option to teammate Cal Quantrill on the trade block. With that said, 2024 was a career year for Gomber, so it’s a good time to shop the nearly 31-year-old.

Brendan Rodgers (2B, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $6.8M

The 28-year-old former #3 overall pick really hasn’t hit his expected peak, especially at the plate. 2025 represents his final year of team control, so Colorado may be looking to pull back a little value this winter before it’s too late.

Garrett Crochet (SP, White Sox)

Projected 2025 Salary: $2.9M

When healthy, and it’s a big if, Crochet has proven to be one of the more efficient pitchers in the game (though we’re talking about just 32 career starts here). Chicago values him as an “ace”, so a trade for the 25-year-old - who has two arbitration years remaining - would likely bring back a blockbuster-type return.

Luis Robert Jr. (OF, White Sox)

Remaining Contract: 1 yr, $15M + 2 $20M Club Options

Robert is by far Chicago’s most productive bat, and his $15M salary for 2025 is second only to Andrew Benintendi’s $17.1M next season. The immediate plans for this franchise remain unknown, but until Chicago makes it clear that they’re back in spending mode, we’ll consider a trade of Robert for prospects one of the better possibilities of the winter.

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Baltimore Orioles

Projected 40-Man CBT: $103.8M (24th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 2 ($14.3M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 16 ($50.5M)
One of the better stories throughout much of 2024 completely combusted down the stretch, missing out on a division title, then being swept out of the Wild Card round. With that said, Gunnar Henderson is a cornerstone piece and Colton Cowser had his mini-breakout. However, Adley Rutschman slid back (again) offensively, there’s no 9th-inning reliever in sight, and Corbin Burnes, the only viable starter, is headed to the open market. O’s fans will be impatiently waiting for this new ownership group to open up their checkbooks.

Notable Options
Eloy Jimenez (DH, $16.5M Club), Seranthony Dominguez (RP, $8M Club), Ryan O'Hearn (1B, $8M Club), Danny Coulombe (RP, $4M Club), Cionel Perez (RP, $2.2M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Corbin Burnes (SP), Anthony Santander (OF), James McCann (C)

Boston Red Sox

Projected 40-Man CBT: $162.1M (15th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($95.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 3 ($11.7M)
Boston hit the All-Star break 10 games over .500, but predictably couldn’t sustain that level of play for the full season. However, this is a team that continues to get younger (and subsequently cheaper), and the Red Sox haven’t been shy about locking in their youth to mid-range extensions. With at least two top-tier prospects (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer) ready to make the jump, Boston might smell blood a little bit right now, which could mean an offseason spending spree to plug as many holes as possible.

Notable Options
Rob Refsnyder (OF, $2.1M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Tyler O'Neill (OF), Nick Pivetta (SP), Kenley Jansen (RP), Lucas Sims (RP)

New York Yankees

Projected 40-Man CBT: $239.4M (4th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($122.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($42.3M)
The Yankees survived more than a few injuries throughout the regular season to garner another AL East title, and a trip to the World Series. The Soto/Judge/Stanton powered lineup certainly went as planned, but keeping it sustainable will take an extra $550M or so. Keeping Gerrit Cole off the open market will mean another $36M added to his contract, and Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and 2-3 relievers need to be replaced this winter. Buckle up folks, we’re headed for a Yankees-of-old offseason.

Notable Options
Gerrit Cole (SP, 4 yr, $144M opt-out), Luke Weaver (RP, $2.5M Club), Anthony Rizzo (1B, $17M Club), Lou Trivino (RP, $5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Juan Soto (RF), Gleyber Torres (INF), Tommy Kahnle (RP), Alex Verdugo (OF), Clay Holmes (RP)

Tampa Bay Rays

Projected 40-Man CBT: $104.8M (23rd)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($39.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 12 ($26.3M)
The season of injury (plus an off-the-field disaster) proved too much to overcome for the Rays. But greener grass is coming in the spring, as a loaded starting rotation should return to full health, and at least a few bats (Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe, Junior Caminero) will be back in the fold. With that said, the Rays need to score more runs, and relying on a prospect-filled roster generally doesn’t lend itself to that type of immediate production. But knowing this front office - the Rays are certainly going to attempt to buck that trend. Top SS prospect Carson Williams could make the team out of camp (assuming Wander Franco doesn’t return), and if things are going well, CF/2B Chandler Simpson could make his much anticipated debut as well. It’s tough to imagine this team spending too much this offseason, but stranger things have happened.

Notable Options
Brandon Lowe (2B, $10.5M Club)

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected 40-Man CBT: $205M (7th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($114.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 10 ($61.3M)
Are we past the make or break point with this core group? You can tell me that the Blue Jays plan to run it back and make Juan Soto the highest offer this winter as well. You can also tell me that the Blue Jays are fielding calls for both Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette this winter. I’ll believe both, which makes this team a must watch. If they miss on Soto, this could be a front office that doesn’t believe they should be paying for a Top 10 payroll, at which point, it’s hard to imagine anyone not becoming available to the trade/non-tender market.

Notable Free Agents
Ryan Yarbrough (RP)