Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors got together to swap point guards. The Nets got a player they can incorporate for the next couple of season, while the Raptors cleared out some additional salary for next season.

Here are the particulars:

Brooklyn Nets acquire: Dennis Schroder, Thaddeus Young

Note: Brooklyn waived Harry Giles III to complete this trade

Toronto Raptors acquire: Spencer Dinwiddie

Let’s dive in!

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Dennis Schroder (PG, two years, $25.4 million), Thaddeus Young (C/PF, one year, $8 million)

Outgoing salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, one year, $20.4 million)

The writing was on the wall for Dinwiddie’s time in Brooklyn. The veteran guard the Nets hadn’t been able to agree on a contract extension. Brooklyn still wanted some certainty at the position, so in comes Schroder.

Schroder has had a nice season for the Raptors, but he was supplanted in the starting lineup by Immanuel Quickley after the OG Anunoby trade. As Toronto is resetting their roster, they don’t need a high-end backup point guard, which made Schroder very available.

The 30-year-old lead guard will bring some stability to the position for Brooklyn. Schroder can score and run the offense. He’s shot relatively well from deep. And he can still be a pesky defender at times.

Schroder’s contract shouldn’t be an impediment to any plans Sean Marks has for the offseason. If it is, the veterans deal is tradable enough that Brooklyn should be able to move him without worry.

It’s been reported that the Nets will waive Thaddeus Young. He’ll be a target for playoff contenders that are looking to add some veteran experience to their frontcourt.

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, one year, $20.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $20.4 million in 2023-24

  • Dennis Schroder (PG, two years, $25.4 million), Thaddeus Young (C/PF, one year, $8 million)

This trade was about creating even more cap flexibility for Toronto. It’s already been reported that the Raptors will waive Dinwiddie. He’s already got teams lining up to add him for the playoff run, so that’s probably a win for him in the end.

This deal, combined with Toronto's earlier trade with the Utah Jazz, has created near max cap space for the Raptors this summer. If Toronto keeps their own top-six protected 2024 first-round pick (it’s hovering right around the line of where they’d convey it to the San Antonio Spurs), they’ll have about $34.4 million in cap space this summer. If the Raptors deliver that pick, they’ll have over $40 million in cap space.

Given the Raptors don’t have a ton of rotation holes to fill, that’s some impressive spending power for this offseason. Masai Ujiri said he wasn’t doing a teardown rebuild, but more of a reset. Toronto’s trades today further that notion. The Raptors are set up to bounce back very quickly.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

(Note: This is a revised post, as the previously reported Sixers-Pacers trade was expanded to a three-team deal to include the Spurs)

Before the season started, after extension negotiations went nowhere, Buddy Hield requested a trade from the Indiana Pacers. Months later, Hield finally got his wish. After making his request, but continuing to play hard and well, Hield is headed to the Philadelphia 76ers, who are loading up despite Joel Embiid being out for a while. In an expanded three-team deal, the Pacers replaced Hield’s outside shooting by adding Doug McDermott from the Spurs.

Here are the particulars:

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: Buddy Hield

Indiana Pacers acquire: Furkan Korkmaz, Doug McDermott, three future second-round picks

San Antonio Spurs acquire: Marcus Morris, future second-round pick, cash considerations

Let’s dive in!

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: $19.3 million in 2023-24

  • Buddy Hield (SG, one year, $19.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $22.5 million in 2023-24

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (PF, one year, $17.1 million), Furkan Korkmaz (SG/SF, one year, $5.4 million)

The Sixers made it clear months ago that they wanted to upgrade their roster for this season, while maintaining flexibility for the summer. This trade does that.

Hield is a good player and will provide some scoring punch and spacing. He’s also on an expiring contract. So, if it works out, Philadelphia can look to bring Hield back. If it doesn’t, they can move on and still create the same cap space as before.

Hield’s shooting has dipped a bit this season, but he’s still an elite shooter. The 31-year-old is hitting 38.4% from deep on 6.9 three-point attempts per game. Hield is also regularly available and rarely injured. For a 76ers team that has been very banged up, that’s important.

With Joel Embiid out, Philadelphia has run even more of the offense through Tyrese Maxey. The secondary scorer has been Tobias Harris. Now, they’ll have an additional player who can scale-up and scale-down his game as necessary. If the Sixers need Hield to take 20 shots one night, he’ll get them up. If they need Hield to play a complementary role and mostly draw the defense with his gravity, he’ll do that too. And he should be a terrific fit once Embiid is back in the lineup, as he’ll create space for Embiid, Maxey and Harris to work in.

One minor issue for the Sixers: Morris has played regular minutes in their injury-hit frontcourt. This could mean more minutes for someone like Kenyon Martin Jr. are on tap. Or, more likely, Daryl Morey isn’t done tweaking his roster.

Philadelphia still has several good-sized expiring contracts that they can move. And they’re sitting on some tradable draft picks too. Morey will keep working to round out their depth. Keep an eye on a center who can start for Embiid while he’s out, then slide into a backup role when Embiid returns. And we’re saying “when”, because this trade seems to indicate that the Sixers believe the reigning MVP will return this season.

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $19.1 million in 2023-24

  • Doug McDermott (PF, one year, $13.7 million), Furkan Korkmaz (SG/SF, one year, $5.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $19.3 million in 2023-24

  • Buddy Hield (SG, one year, $19.3 million)

The Pacers had a logjam at the guard position. They’ve used Hield as a starter and off the bench this season. Lately, with a healthy roster, Indiana has gone to Andrew Nembhard as the starting backcourt mate next to Tyrese Haliburton.

That move put Hield in a bench role. Indiana also has Bennedict Mathurin coming off the bench, as well as T.J. McConnell. That’s a lot of overlap in skills and roles. Simply put, someone was going to lose out on minutes somewhere.

The real get in this trade for Indiana is three future second-round picks for a player that was coming to the end of his run with the team. Because of what we laid out above, Hield was likely not in the long-term plans.

McDermott will could help replace some of the shooting that was lost by trading Hield. He’s bigger than Hield, so McDermott should be able to play in lineups that feature two guards. He’s on an expiring deal, so the Pacers long-term cap flexibility takes on no hit.

It’s already been reported that the Pacers will waive Korkmaz.

San Antonio Spurs

Incoming salary: $17.1 million in 2023-24

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (PF, one year, $17.1 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.7 million in 2023-24

  • Doug McDermott (PF, one year, $13.7 million)

The Spurs side of this deal is fairly simple: They added a second-round pick and some cash to cover the difference between Morris and McDermott’s salary.

It’s been reported that Morris is expected to work a buyout with the Spurs. That makes sense, as San Antonio is prioritizing playing younger players for the rest of this season. Morris was fairly productive in his stint with the Sixers, so he should be able to find a new home. Two things to note: Morris can’t return to Philadelphia, as they just traded him. And because his salary is above that of the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount ($12.4 million) Morris can’t sign with any of the apron teams either.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The New York Knicks pulled off one of the biggest moves on trade deadline day when they acquired Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks from the Detroit Pistons. The Knicks sent the Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, two second-round picks and salary filler to the Pistons in the deal.

This move sets Detroit up to actually increase their 2024 cap space, and they get to incorporate Grimes with their young team. For New York, the move took on increased importance with an injury update that came out later in the day on Thursday.

Here are the particulars:

New York Knicks acquire: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks

Detroit Pistons acquire: Ryan Arcidiacono, Malachi Flynn, Evan Fournier, Quentin Grimes, two future second-round picks

Note: Detroit also waived Killian Hayes and Danuel House Jr. to complete this trade.

Let’s dive in!

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $30.5 million in 2023-24

  • Bojan Bogdanovic (SF/PF, two years, $39 million, $2 million guaranteed in 2024-25), Alec Burks (SG, one year, $10.5 million)

Outgoing salary: 27.1 million in 2023-24

  • Ryan Arcidiacono (PG, one year, $2.0 million), Malachi Flynn (PG, one year, $3.9 million), Evan Fournier (SG/SF, two years, $37.8 million, team option for 2024-25), Quentin Grimes (SG, two years, $6.7 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Whew, boy!

The Knicks went big in trade season. They traded for OG Anunoby in an earlier deal, and then swung arguably the day’s biggest trade in terms of players and impact. And New York didn’t sacrifice much draft capital, while still retaining some salary flexibility too. That’s good work.

This trade took on a whole other meaning when news broke that OG Anunoby is out at least the next three weeks after undergoing surgery on his right elbow. That’s on top of Julius Randle, who is in the midst of a multi-week absence after dislocating his right shoulder.

Instead of Bogdanovic coming in as a fill-in starter and then a key reserve, he’ll become a key starter as soon as he’s ready to play. And that’s a good thing. Bogdanovic is still a very good offensive player. He’ll help lessen the burden on Jalen Brunson to create everything for New York while Randle is out.

The 35-year-old remains equally adept at creating his own looks, as he is as a spot-up shooter. That kind of versatility should fit in nicely with Brunson right away, and then with Randle when he returns. Bogdanovic is shooting 41.5% on a career-high 7.4 three-point attempts per game. That’ll help boost a Knicks team that is middle-of-the-pack in terms of shooting.

Defensively, Bogdanovic is competitive. He’s better against bigger forwards now, because he’s fairly strong and a solid positional defender. When he draws a quicker player, he’ll need some help. But the Knicks have enough good defenders to cover for Bogdanovic when necessary.

As for Burks, think of him as the Immanuel Quickley replacement. He’s not as good as Quickley, but that’s the role the Knicks will ask him to play. New York is going to want Burks to provide the sort of instant offense they’ve been missing since trading Quickley.

After a really rough start, Burks has bounced back as a shooter. He’s up to 40.1% on 5.7 three-point attempts per game. He’s also a pretty good creator off the dribble. Burks isn’t nearly the defender Quickley could be, nor the passer, but as a bench scorer, he’ll help New York a lot.

On the cap sheet, things stayed relatively neutral. Bogdanovic is only guaranteed $2 million out of his $19 million deal, but expect the Knicks to guarantee the whole thing. If nothing else, that rolls over a big expiring contract into next year’s trade market for New York.

Giving up Quentin Grimes had to be hard for a Knicks front office that prized the young guard. However, he had struggled to adapt to a backup role this season. Grimes needs consistent minutes and a role. He’ll get that in Detroit, and he wasn’t likely to in a crowded Knicks backcourt.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: 27.1 million in 2023-24

  • Ryan Arcidiacono (PG, one year, $2.0 million), Malachi Flynn (PG, one year, $3.9 million), Evan Fournier (SG/SF, two years, $37.8 million, team option for 2024-25), Quentin Grimes (SG, two years, $6.7 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Outgoing salary: $30.5 million in 2023-24

  • Bojan Bogdanovic (SF/PF, two years, $39 million, $2 million guaranteed in 2024-25), Alec Burks (SG, one year, $10.5 million)

So…there is a lot going on here. First, this is a 4-for-2 trade. That meant the Pistons had to waive two players. They did that by waiving Killian Hayes and recently-acquired Danuel House Jr.

Let’s start with the Hayes part, as it’s fascinating how quickly he fell out of favor. In his fourth season, Hayes has only shown incremental progress from the flawed prospect he was as the 7th overall pick at the 2020 NBA Draft.

Hayes can’t shoot. He’s never become the defender he looked like he might. His playmaking has been solid enough, but the utter lack of scoring ability sunk Hayes as starting point guard. The good news? Hayes is only 22 years old. He’s a nice “second draft” flyer for team with a good player development staff and available minutes to let Hayes figure things out.

As for the trade, the Pistons main gets in this deal were Quentin Grimes and two future second picks. Even if we consider Grimes a pseudo first-round pick substitute, this is still a bit off the two firsts and two seconds that Detroit insisted they needed for Bogdanovic and Burks.

That said…this is more realistic value.

Grimes is a nice player who should fit in nicely with the Pistons young core. He’ll be able to play with Cade Cunningham, Jade Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Marcus Sasser in versatile guard/wing groupings. Detroit should also have the ability to give Grimes plenty of minutes, which is something he was seeing less and less of in New York.

The two second-round picks, combined with Grimes, are more reasonable value for Bogdanovic and Burks. Both players are still good, but they are aging and they both are coming to end of their contracts.

Detroit also acquired Evan Fournier in this deal. It’s not clear if Fournier will get a chance to play much. Given Monty Williams’ fondness for having vets on the floor, don’t bet against it. If he does get to play, Fournier will have a chance to show he can still shoot and score. He didn’t forget how to play basketball, despite the Knicks shelving him for the better part of the last two years. Fournier will be motivated to show he can still play, given his contract status for next season.

Detroit will likely decline Fournier’s $19 million team option for next season, as they pursue max cap space. It’s unclear if Ryan Arcidiacono or Malachi Flynn will make it to next week, never mind next season. They aren’t likely to be part of the Pistons beyond this season either.

That means the only long-term money Detroit took on was the $4.3 million for Quentin Grimes. The Pistons weren’t going to just waive Bojan Bogdanovic next year, so they actually created almost $15 million more in cap space next summer. Look for the Pistons to have north of $60 million in cap room come July.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

In a move that helped the Philadelphia 76ers dodge the luxury tax, the Detroit Pistons picked up an additional 2024 second-round pick.

Here are the particulars:

Detroit Pistons acquire: Danuel House Jr., 2024 Knicks second-round pick

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: 2028 Pistons second-round pick (top-55 protected)

Let’s dive in!

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $4.3 million in 2023-24

  • Danuel House Jr. (SF, one year, $4.3 million)
  • Detroit also waived Joe Harris to create the roster space to bring in House. House was acquired via the Marvin Bagley TPE that the Pistons had available.

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

This is pretty simple on the Pistons side. Detroit gets a second-round pick for taking on some money for House. The pick won’t be a great one, as the Knicks are playing well, but it’s something Troy Weaver can add to his draft capital stash.

The Pistons pick is top-55 protected in 2028. If that conveys, Detroit will be thrilled as it means they are one of the best teams in the NBA.

As for House the player: the Pistons waived him to be able to complete another trade they made with the Knicks. Detroit also waived Joe Harris to create space to acquire House. Harris was out of the rotation for the Pistons and will count as $19.9 million dead money for the rest of this season.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $4.3 million in 2023-24

  • Danuel House Jr. (SF, one year, $4.3 million)

Combining this trade with the Sixers sending Marcus Morris Sr. and Furkan Korkmaz to the Indiana Pacers for Buddy Hield, Philadelphia is out of the luxury tax. That’s the motivation behind giving up a pick to dump House.

The 76ers now have the ability to play in the buyout market. Because they are well under the apron, Philadelphia has no restrictions on who they can sign after a buyout. And the Sixers have a lot of roster spots to fill, so Daryl Morey has a busy couple of weeks ahead of him.

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks wanted to upgrade their frontcourt. They got that done by trading for one of the more underrated centers in the NBA. In exchange, the Washington Wizards added some additional draft capital as they continue their rebuild.

Here are the particulars:

Dallas Mavericks acquire: Daniel Gafford

Washington Wizards acquire: Richaun Holmes, 2024 first-round pick via the Thunder

Let’s dive in!

Dallas Mavericks

Incoming salary: $12.4 million in 2023-24

  • Daniel Gafford (C, three years, $40.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.0 million in 2023-24

  • Richaun Holmes (C, two years, $24.9 million, player option for 2024-25)

Dallas was motivated to build up their frontcourt. They accomplished that in a pair of trade deadline moves that saw the team acquire Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. We’re going to focus on the Gafford acquisition now, and we’ll hit on the Washington in a separate piece.

Gafford is in the midst of the best year of his career. He’s started in 45 games he’s played, and Gafford has averaged 10.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game.

It’s the latter two stats that are particularly encouraging for Gafford. He’s been an improved defender, even if that gets lost somewhat in the overall sloppiness of the Wizards team defense. The 25-year-old big man is also a solid rebounder. That’s been a weakness for Dallas this season and one Gafford should help shore up.

For the Mavericks, Gafford is probably coming off the bench. He’ll replace Dwight Powell as the primary backup for Dereck Lively II. That gives Dallas three very capable centers that they can use at any time. That’s important because Lively has had some issues staying on the floor. The Mavs can now make sure he’s fully ready to play, because they have Gafford in the fold.

Dallas took on an extra year of salary in this deal, but it was only $14.4 million in 2025-26. That’ll be roughly equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Gafford should return that much value with ease.

As for the draft pick compensation, the Mavs had to get a little creative. Dallas worked with the Oklahoma City Thunder to send a 2028 first-round pick swap to the Thunder for a 2024 first-round pick. That allowed the Mavs to route the draft compensation that the Wizards needed for Gafford.

Washington Wizards

Incoming salary: $12.0 million in 2023-24

  • Richaun Holmes (C, two years, $24.9 million, player option for 2024-25)

Outgoing salary: $12.4 million in 2023-24

  • Daniel Gafford (C, three years, $40.2 million)

The Wizards were able to get a first-round pick for Daniel Gafford. That’s something they couldn’t do in the Bradley Beal or Kristaps Porzingis trades.

Washington also got off an additional year of salary for Gafford in 2025-26 in this trade. As the Wizards continue along with the rebuild, additional draft capital and cap flexibility are desirable commodities.

There’s also a chance that Richaun Holmes could rehab his value as a member of the Wizards. The last two years have been mostly lost campaigns for the 30-year-old big man, but there’s still talent there.

As recently as 2021-22, Holmes averaged 10.4 points and 7.0 rebounds. He should get a chance to play for the Wizards. If Holmes can rebuild his value, it will help him, and it will help the Wizards by virtue of a potential re-trade down the line.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 08, 2024

The Toronto Raptors are continuing to reshape their roster, after trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam earlier this season. In a deal with the Utah Jazz, the Raptors added a young wing with some upside and a veteran center in exchange for two non-rotation players and a 2024 first-round pick.

Here are the particulars:

Toronto Raptors acquire: Ochai Agbaji, Kelly Olynyk

Utah Jazz acquire: Kira Lewis Jr., Otto Porter Jr., 2024 first-round pick (likely from the Thunder or Clippers)

(Note: This will functionally be two separate trades, since Lewis can’t be aggregated in this deal.)

Let’s dive in!

Toronto Raptors

Incoming salary: $16.3 million in 2023-24

  • Ochai Agbaji (SF/SG, three years, $14.8 million, rookie scale team option in 2025-26), Kelly Olynyk (C/PF, one year, $12.2 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.2 million in 2023-24

  • Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, one year, $5.7 million, restricted free agent in 2024), Otto Porter Jr. (PF/SF, one year, $6.3 million)

Masai Ujiri said he wasn’t tearing the Raptors roster down to rebuild after the OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam trades. Instead, Ujiri is resetting things in Toronto. This trade furthers that strategy.

Effectively, Toronto gave up a very late (probably in the 25-30 range) first-round pick in what is considered a weak 2024 NBA Draft for Agbaji. Considering Agbaji was just the 14th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, that’s not a bad upgrade.

Agbaji is seen as a potential 3&D starting wing. As of right now, the “D” part is well ahead the “3” part of that equation. After an encouraging 36% as a rookie, Agbaji has slipped to 33% this season. If he’s going to make it as a regular starter, he’ll need to bring that up considerably.

As it stands, Agbaji is a good defender and a nice bench player. He fits in the new-look Raptors rotation in that sense. He’s a bit older for a second-year player, as he’s already 23 years old, but Agbaji still has some upside left to discover.

And all of that is before we get to Olynyk.

Adding a veteran center on an expiring contract feels like an odd move for Toronto, but they did this a year ago with Jakob Poeltl. The idea may simply be to get Olynyk, and his Bird Rights, and to re-sign him this summer. That would match the path the Raptors took with Poeltl.

Olynyk brings a dimension that no other Raptors big does. He’s a good perimeter player, as Olynyk can shoot and pass. He’s also a solid roll-man, which Toronto has been lacking this season. He’s a good changeup from Poeltl as a center combo.

If the Raptors retain Olynyk, or turn him into another long-term fit down the line, they’ve done well in this trade. If not, then it’s probably more of a neutral value.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Toronto took on very little future money in this trade. They’re still set up to be a major free agency player with north of $30 million cap space this summer.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $12.2 million in 2023-24

  • Kira Lewis Jr. (PG, one year, $5.7 million, restricted free agent in 2024), Otto Porter Jr. (PF/SF, one year, $6.3 million)

Outgoing salary: $16.3 million in 2023-24

  • Ochai Agbaji (SF/SG, three years, $14.8 million, rookie scale team option in 2025-26), Kelly Olynyk (C/PF, one year, $12.2 million)

We’ve written and said repeatedly that Danny Ainge won’t be seduced by the allure of the Play-In Tournament. If there is a good deal to be made, he’ll make it and let the standings fall where they may. Ainge did it last season, and he’s done it again here.

For Ainge, he acquired another first-round pick for an expiring contract at a position where the Jazz have depth and a player who was blocking a younger player with more upside. In addition, Ainge cleared about $4.3 million in salary off next year’s books.

That’s pretty solid work, even if it potentially weakens Utah’s rotation for the rest of this season.

After trading Simone Fontecchio, and now Agbaji, the runway is clear for Taylor Hendricks to play significant minutes. He’s played well in the G League and is brimming with potential. The Jazz can use the rest of this season to see how he fits in with Lauri Markkanen and others.

Up front, barring further trades, Utah still has Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler in the rotation. They also like Omer Yurtseven and Luka Samanic, who could see some increased minutes too.

It’s unlikely that either Lewis or Porter will play much of a role for the Jazz. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either of them waived and allowed to catch on elsewhere.

Keep an eye on Utah continuing to try to clear even more cap space for next summer. They’d like to renegotiate-and-extend Markkanen’s deal, plus have some left over to make other moves. This is a multi-year rebuilding process for the Jazz. Their two (so far!) deadline moves signal that the work is far from complete.

 

Michael GinnittiFebruary 08, 2024

The Super Bowl matchup pairs two teams that have gone down very different financial paths to get here. Our dive into how the 2023 money was allocated for the Kansas City Chiefs & San Francisco 49ers, plus notable players on each eyeing a payday in the coming weeks.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Betting against Patrick Mahomes in January is not a recommended strategy, as the 28-year-old reminded us over the past month. At $236M, KC held the 21st highest cash payroll in 2023, benefiting from a cheaper arsenal of weapons, and a few notable defensive players still on rookie contracts this past season. A huge portion of their offseason money was allocated to RT Jawaan Taylor ($60M guaranteed), & DE Charles Omenihu ($8.6M guaranteed), while the quick development of 2nd round pick WR Rashee Rice certainly factored in down the stretch.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

If you can find a 7th round starting QB who costs you $2.6M over a 3-year span, I highly recommend it. The Niners get (at least) 1 more season of ultimate value out of Brock Purdy, who used some of that extra dough to bring in Javon Hargrave ($40M guaranteed), & extend Nick Bosa ($122.5M guaranteed). San Francisco held the 6th highest cash payroll in the league this past season, paying out over $266M in total. Unlike in 2023, the 49ers currently hold all of their Top 100 draft picks, hoping to find their next wave of financial value as they continue their window of NFC contention.

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP FINANCIALS

Detailing the combined average salary allocations for the projected Super Bowl starting lineups, broken down by Offense, Defense, & Special Teams.

2023 CASH SPENDING COMPARISON

A look at how KC & SF allocated their cash spending this past season, including where each positional figure ranks throughout the NFL.

Team QB RB/FB WR TE OL DL LB DB S/T TOTAL
Chiefs $60M $4.4M $18.8M $15.2M $48.2M $46.3M $8M $22.3M $7.5M $231M
2nd 28th 20th 11th 11th 12th 31st 5th 8th 16th
49ers $8M $19.1M $17.8M $17.1M $35.9 $98.5 $26M $28.7 $4.4M $255M
29th 3rd 24th 6th 23rd 1st 17th 24th 23rd 5th

EYEING A 2024 PAY DAY

After an unsuccessful holdout, Chiefs DT Chris Jones’ contract will once again come into focus this winter. Will the two sides come to a compromising multi-year agreement this time around? Jones’ projects toward a 3 year, $85M contract in our system.

Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed remains one of the best kept secrets in all of football, making big plays in big moments every single week. He’s the #2 CB in KC behind Trent McDuffie, but will certainly be seeking near CB1 money on the open market this winter. He projects toward a 4 year, $64M contract in our system.

Chiefs S Justin Reid isn’t the most decorated DB in the league, but he’s solidified a good, young secondary in KC for two seasons. Tacking on 3 new years to his 2024 season at around $9M-$10M per year makes sense.

Heading toward a fully guaranteed $14.1M 5th-year-option season, 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk remains the 4th option in this Niners offense, but he’s excelled in this offense over the past two seasons. Can San Francisco justify another $20M+ weapon on this team? Aiyuk projects toward a 4 year, $92M extension in our system.

49ers CB Charvarius Ward has more than outplayed the $27.5M earned over the past two seasons. With a cap hit that spikes to near $18M next year, tacking on additional years to lower the 2024 figure makes sense for all parties here. Ward projects toward a 4 year, $50M extension in our system.

The Niner acquired DE Chase Young from Washington at the deadline, providing ample depth to a DL that is loaded with big names. His 7.5 sacks in 2023 tied a career-high, puting him in decent shape as he nears the open market for the first time. He projects toward a 1 year, $13M incentive-laden deal in our system.

49ers OL Jon Feliciano is more of a part-time role player at this stage of his career, but his presence in depth & starting spots has dramatically improved the consistency of San Fran’s OL this past season. Bringing him back on a slightly north of minimum deal (1 year, $4M?) should be attractive for all here.

2024 CAP OUTLOOK

KC rolls into the offseason with around $23M of Top 51 cap space under their belt, with only 41 players currently under contract. Cap conversions on Patrick Mahomes, Joe Thuney, & Jawaan Taylor can open up over $54M more. 

The Niners will hit the offseason with almost no cap space to operate with initially, but they have plenty of avenues to generate room as needed. Cap conversions for core players McCaffrey, Juszczyk, Samuel, Kittle, Williams, Armstread, Hargrave, & Warner can open up over $87M of cap space this coming March.

Related:
Chiefs Offseason Analysis
49ers Offseason Analysis

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2024

After earlier making a trade for Simone Fontecchio from the Utah Jazz, the Detroit Pistons continued the process of reshaping the roster. This time, the Pistons sent Monte Morris to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have been looking for additional backcourt depth.

Here are the particulars:

Minnesota Timberwolves acquire: Monte Morris

Detroit Pistons acquire: Troy Brown Jr., Shake Milton, 2030 Minnesota Timberwolves second-round pick

(Note: Detroit will need to waive or trade another player to be in roster compliance. That additional transaction was not known at the time of this writing.)

Let’s dive in!

Minnesota Timberwolves

Incoming salary: $9.8 million in 2023-24

  • Monte Morris (PG, one year, $9.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $9 million in 2023-24

  • Troy Brown Jr. (SF/SG, two years, $8.0 million, team option for 2024-25), Shake Milton (PG/SG, two years, $10 million, team option for 2024-25)

The Timberwolves entered trade deadline eve in a four-way tie atop the Western Conference. That’s pretty rarified air for Minnesota. And they got there despite a pretty glaring hole in their rotation at backup point guard.

Mike Conley is having an outstanding and efficient season for the Wolves. When he’s on the court, Minnesota is +9.0 in offensive rating compared to when he’s off the court. Now, offensive rating isn’t an individual stat, but it does paint a picture that matches the eye test: The Timberwolves offense gets really messy whenever Conley isn’t on the floor.

That made it a major goal to find a quality backup point guard. Minnesota front office leader Tim Connelly did so by returning to a familiar face in Morris. Connelly originally drafted Morris in the second round of the 2017 NBA Draft.

We can basically disregard Morris’ stats for this season, as he’s only recently returned from injury for the Pistons to play just six games. If we focus on his previous seasons with the Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets, we see one of the very best backup point guards in the NBA. And Morris is a guy who can perform well as a fill-in starter too.

With the Wizards last season, Morris put up 10.3 points and 5.3 assists. In his last year in Denver, Morris started for Jamal Murray (who was out after a torn ACL) and he averaged 12.6 points and 4.4 assists. The veteran guard also never turns the ball over. Seriously. His assist/turnover ratio is so stark, that it’s earned Morris the nickname “Count of Monte Assist/TO”.

Now, when Conley has to sit, whether it’s for in-game rest or to take a night off, Chris Finch can turn the offense over to the more-than-capable Morris. Outside of maybe finding one more wing with some size, Minnesota’s playoff rotation is as deep and solid as there is in the entire league.

On the cap sheet, the Timberwolves edged ever closer to the tax like. They’ll be about $1.5 million under the tax, but they also have two open roster spots. One of those spots will have to filled within 14 days. Look for the Wolves to do what they can to stay under the tax line, which might mean another trade or some signing gymnastics with 10-day deals and the like.

The reason dodging the tax this season is important is that Minnesota already has over $165 million committed to just five players (Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns) for next season. That’s against a projected tax line of just over $171 million, a first apron of $178.6 million and a second apron of $189.5 million.

When you factor in the team’s smaller guaranteed salaries and filling out the roster, the Timberwolves project to be over the first apron. And that’s before you account for the potential re-signing of Conley and/or Morris. And if the Wolves project to be a multi-year luxury tax team, keeping the repeater clock at bay for a year makes it imperative to stay under the tax this season.

But those are tomorrow’s problems. Today, Minnesota shored up a major weak spot and further solidified themselves as an 2024 NBA Finals contender. That’s great work at a fairly minimal cost.

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $9 million in 2023-24

  • Troy Brown Jr. (SF/SG, two years, $8.0 million, team option for 2024-25), Shake Milton (PG/SG, two years, $10 million, team option for 2024-25)

Outgoing salary: $9.8 million in 2023-24

  • Monte Morris (PG, one year, $9.8 million)

In Detroit they can say “Monte, we hardly knew ye!”. Morris played just six games for the Pistons after he was acquired in a salary-clearing move from the Washington Wizards this past summer.

So, the Pistons aren’t really losing much here. Yes, they gave up a 2027 second-round pick to get Morris in the first place, but they made that back here. That’s basically a wash.

On the court, we’ll see what Milton and Brown can do for Detroit. Both could play roles on a Pistons team that is rapidly reshaping itself. Milton could plug right into Morris’ role in the backup point guard rotation behind Cade Cunningham. Milton has historically been a pretty good shooter and scorer, even if he’s struggled with his shot this season.

Brown has bounced around a lot in his six-year NBA career. The Pistons will be his fifth team already. But Brown is still only 24 years old. He might still have some of that late-bloomer shine left on him. He’s actually shot the ball better over the last two seasons, which is encouraging. He could get some run the rest of this year to show Detroit what he can do.

Neither Milton nor Brown should take away any minutes from players on rookie deals like Ausar Thompson and Marcus Sasser, who might be a big part of Detroit’s future. However, Monty Williams has made some curious playing time decisions this season. If nothing else, the Pistons front office can control what happens with both Milton and Brown following this season.

Milton has a $5 million team option for 2024-25, while Brown has a $4 million team option. That means this trade doesn’t do anything to impact the Pistons league-leading $46.6 million in projected cap space for this summer.

If Milton or Brown pops, their salaries are low enough that Detroit could keep them without overly hurting their cap space plans. Most likely, Milton and Brown will play out the year, and the Pistons will decline their options for next season. Detroit will then remain open to re-signing either player after they’ve used their cap space.

Finally, getting a 2030 Wolves second-rounder is a nice return for a guy who wasn’t a part of the long-term future. 2030 is so far off that Minnesota could be rebuilding their team following retirements and departures of several players, as all of their current contracts will have expired by then. If nothing else, Detroit has a future asset to use at currency in another future trade.

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2024

The Boston Celtics have the NBA’s best record, but have been searching to fill out their bench. An area of concern has been frontcourt depth. Boston filled that need by acquiring Xavier Tillman Sr. from the Memphis Grizzlies.

Here are the particulars:

Boston Celtics acquire: Xavier Tillman Sr.

Memphis Grizzlies acquire: Lamar Stevens, 2027 Atlanta Hawks second-round pick, 2030 Dallas Mavericks second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: $1.9 million in 2023-24

  • Xavier Tillman Sr. (C, one year, $1.9 million)

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Lamar Stevens (SF/PF, one year, $2.0 million)

Boston has been looking to fill out their bench with quality depth. It’s been termed as looking to add emergency players. That’s what Tillman will likely be for the Celtics, with some potential upside.

Tillman is an undersized five, but he’s strong and a rugged defender. He’s got decent length and athleticism too. That allows him to compete with bigger players and to hold up defensively. He can be used in a number of different schemes, which is important with how often Boston changes their coverages.

On offense, Tillman has been all over the place. As a rookie in 2020-21, Tillman shot a promising 34% on three-pointers. Since then, the outside shot has all but disappeared. This season, Tillman has broken it back out, but he’s hitting only 23% on 1.6 three-point attempts per game.

More worrisome? Tillman’s finishing around the rim has fallen way off too. After hitting a career-high 75% in shots at the rim last season, Tillman has dropped to 57% this season. The hope is that’s because Tillman has been playing in talent-deficient lineups for the incredibly banged-up Grizzlies. With others to attract some attention, Tillman’s efficiency should return.

Beyond his defense and scoring, Tillman is a pretty good rebounder and passer. His per-minute rebounding stats show a guy who is a plus on the glass. Tillman is an underrated passer too. Look for the Celtics to use him in some of the top-of-the-key and elbow actions where Al Horford and Rob Williams have excelled as playmakers.

Boston likely sees Tillman as their fourth-big man. Kristaps Porzingis is the lone starting big, while Horford plays what is essentially a starter’s role off the bench. Luke Kornet has been the third big, with two-way player Neemias Queta filling in when someone is out.

Tillman will bump Queta, who is closing in on maxing out the 50 NBA games he’s allowed to be active for as a two-way player. If Tillman is healthy, and assimilates quickly to the Celtics, he could eventually supplant Kornet in the rotation too.

One interesting and important piece of cap minutiae: Because Boston was able to send Stevens to Memphis in this deal, they were able to retain the entirety of the $6.2 million traded player exception they have from last summer’s sign-and-trade of Grant Williams. Boston also retained an open roster spot. That TPE and the open roster spot are good tools and flexibility for Brad Stevens to have, as he continues to fill out the Celtics bench.

Memphis Grizzlies

Incoming salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Lamar Stevens (SF/PF, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $1.9 million in 2023-24

  • Xavier Tillman Sr. (C, one year, $1.9 million)

The Grizzlies are continuing the reshape their roster in what’s become a lost season due to injuries. Trading Tillman doesn’t actually save Memphis any money this season, but they do clear up an open free agent question for the summer.

The Grizzlies might have felt some pressure to re-sign Tillman, who was a draft-and-develop find. Now, they can move in a different direction without feeling a need to potentially overpay Tillman in unrestricted free agency.

Memphis gets to add a couple of additional second-round picks to their coffers. As we covered in the breakdown of the Steven Adams trade, these picks are valuable currency for the Grizzlies. They can use them to backfill open roster spots (standard or two-way), or they can use them in future trades.

It’s somewhat unlikely that Lamar Stevens will play a role for Memphis. He may not even stick past the trade deadline. The Grizzlies would like to clear an open roster spot to sign two-way player GG Jackson to a standard deal. Waiving, or re-trading, Stevens seems to be a path toward getting that done.

The Grizzlies may not be done reworking their roster either. They still have several role players that could interest teams. Memphis is setting themselves up to rebound in a big way with a healthy roster next season. Continuing to clear room around the tax and the aprons could lead to additional summertime moves to aid in a major turnaround for next season.

Keith SmithFebruary 07, 2024

The Detroit Pistons have been adamant that they aren’t bottoming out their roster, despite the team sitting at the bottom of the NBA’s standings. Detroit has been termed as an opportunistic buyer, and that seemingly led the Pistons to a trade with the Utah Jazz.

Here are the particulars:

Detroit Pistons acquire: Simone Fontecchio

Utah Jazz acquire: Kevin Knox, 2024 second-round pick (more favorable of Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards), draft rights to Gabriele Procida

Let’s dive in!

Detroit Pistons

Incoming salary: $3.0 million in 2023-24

  • Simone Fontecchio (SF, one year, $3.0 million, restricted free agent in 2024)

Outgoing salary: $1.8 million in 2023-24

  • Kevin Knox (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

The Pistons have been sending signals for weeks, if not months, that they have no intention of staying a bad team. They aren’t in fire-sale mode with their veterans. They’ve pursued players who are on long-term contracts, or under team control, over the past few weeks. Hence: the Zach LaVine rumors.

In Fontecchio, Detroit gets to make a fairly minimal investment to get a player who could really help them now, and moving forward.

Fontecchio has good size for the small forward position. He’s a good shooter and a capable ball-mover. Fontecchio isn’t a great halfcourt scorer, but he’s capable of attacking a closeout or making a move in transition to create a shot.

On defense, Fontecchio is competitive. He’s not going to shut down opposing wings, but he knows how to work within a scheme to shade his man toward help. He’s got pretty good hands, which help him get rebounds and deflections.

Contractually, Detroit will have a pretty immediate decision to make on Fontecchio. They’ll have him for 30ish games before Fontecchio is eligible for restricted free agency this summer. Even though he’s 28 years old, Fontecchio has only been in the NBA for two seasons. Most players with three or fewer years of service are eligible for restricted free agency.

In order to make Fontecchio a restricted free agent, the Pistons will have to tender him a qualifying offer worth $3.8 million. Doing that will allow Detroit to match any offer sheets that Fontecchio might sign as a restricted free agent. It will come at the cost of about $3.9 million in cap space, as that’s the cap hold that will land on Detroit’s books.

Even with Fontecchio’s cap hold on the books, the Pistons project to have an NBA-high $46.6 million in cap space come July.

This trade also opens up Detroit to potentially listen to trade offers for Bojan Bogdanovic or Alec Burks. Fontecchio overlaps positionally with both players. The Pistons could keep all three guys and move into next season with a solid veteran wing group around a lot of young players. Or Detroit could explore moving either Bogdanovic or Burks with Fontecchio in the fold as a replacement.

Knox had played well for Detroit this year, after being signed a few weeks into the season. He’s a replacement level guy though, and he wasn’t assured of having a long-term future with the Pistons.

The draft pick the Pistons are giving up is perhaps a bit steep. However, it’s unlikely Detroit would have drafted a player better than Fontecchio, even with an early second-round pick. And the Pistons are clearly done with building around more young players. They want to add veterans around their youthful core.

The draft rights to Procida are nothing to sneeze at either. We’ll cover him more in the Jazz section. But, like we said above with the draft pick, there isn’t a lot of room to add even more kids to the Pistons roster.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: $1.8 million in 2023-24

  • Kevin Knox (SF/PF, one year, $1.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $3.0 million in 2023-24

  • Simone Fontecchio (SF, one year, $3.0 million, restricted free agent in 2024)
  • The Jazz will likely bring Kevin Knox in via the Minimum Exception. That will allow Utah to create a $3 million traded player exception for Simone Fontecchio.
  • All signs pointed to the Jazz making at least one trade, if not a few, before Thursday’s deadline. Utah did something similar last season, while sitting in a similar spot in the standings. Danny Ainge will not allow the allure of the Play-In Tournament to seduce him. If he feels there is a good deal to be made, Ainge will make it.

That said, this seems like pretty value for Utah.

Fontecchio has played well, and he’s started for most of the season at small forward for the Jazz. But Utah needs to free up some playing time for younger players, namely 2023 lottery pick Taylor Hendricks. Hendricks has flashed in limited NBA moments, but he’s looked pretty good in the G League. He’s ready to take on a rotation role, either for the rest of this season or at the start of next season.

It’s next season that this was about for Utah as much as it was about any kind of 2024 postseason push.

The Jazz have a chance to create over $40 million in cap space next summer. Trading Fontecchio removes the question of whether or not to tender him a qualifying offer. Now, Utah can move forward with maximizing cap space without Fontecchio’s fate hanging over them.

Adding a high second-round pick is pretty good value. Ainge can add it to his stash of picks and use it as currency in a move that’s to come down the line. At worst, Utah will draft a cost-controlled young player to backfill free agents that move off the roster this offseason.

Adding Gabriele Procida is a smart, no-cost, upside play for the Jazz. The 6-foot-6 wing has good size for his position. Procida has also taken a path somewhat similar to Fontecchio’s. He started his professional career in his native Italy, before moving to ALBA Berlin in Germany. That’s the same move Fontecchio made, before spending a season in Spain ahead of moving to the NBA.

Procida played mostly as a reserve in Italy’s top league. He showed off a nice outside shot, as well as capable defense. In Germany, the 21-year-old has continued his development. Procida hasn’t shot it as well, but he’s been a solid enough defender. ALBA Berlin has struggled in the EuroLeague this season, but they remain one of the better clubs in the German Bundesliga. That means Procida is getting high-level experience at a young age.

Only time will tell if Kevin Knox sticks on the Jazz roster. Utah can keep him for depth purposes for now, as they see how things develop through both the trade deadline and during buyout season.

Don’t be surprised if the Jazz aren’t quite done tweaking their roster. Ainge will keep working as he looks to add talent to solid foundation built around Lauri Markkanen (who will like renegotiate-and-extend his contract this summer) and a promising core of young players. But veterans like Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, Kris Dunn and Talen Horton-Tucker, and possibly John Collins and Collin Sexton, have drawn trade interest. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a couple more rotation players on the move from Utah before Thursday’s deadline.

 

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