A visual look at the numbers behind Von Miller's blockbuster free agent contract with the Bills, including $52M through 2024, and team-friendly cap hits over the next two seasons. Related: View the Full Contract

A visual look at the cap hits, bonuses, guarantee structure, and practicality of Maxx Crosby's $94M contract extension with the Las Vegas Raiders. Related: View the Full Contract

A visual look at the numbers behind Matthew Stafford's $160M extension with the Rams, including the double bonus structure, $120M guaranteed through 2023, and near $50M cap hits. Related: View the Full Contract

A visual look at the numbers behind Deshaun Watson's $230M guaranteed with the Browns, & how the cap hits may be managed over the next 7+ seasons in Cleveland. Related: View the Full Contract

Matt Olson (1B, OAK, 27)

Olson projects to a $12M salary in his second year of arbitration, with free agency not currently scheduled until 2024. This is generally the time the A’s begin to deal away their position players, and with major power & outstanding defense on his resume, Olson should bring back a nice package. If the Braves let Freddie Freeman get away, this is a slam dunk replacement. Olson projects to a 6 year, $136M extension in our system.

Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM, 26)

Smith’s role has been reduced more and more each season, and the infrequent hitting has led to inconsistent production. There’s a world where an everyday role elsewhere reignites his abilities, and this spring could be the time for us to find that out. Smith is under team control through 2024. Cleveland has long seemed a strong fit.

Matt Chapman (3B, OAK, 28)

Like Olson, Chapman is headed into his Arbitration 2 year, projected at around $9.5M for the upcoming season. The Gold Glove defender has consistently provided near 5 WAR production on average, and could have his sights set on one of the NY teams for the foreseeable future. Chapman projects to a 6 year, $138M extension in our system.

J.D. Davis (3B/OF, NYM)

Davis’ bat was always touted as his strong point, while defensively (especially at 3rd base) he was considered a liability. The power at the plate was evident in 2019, but hasn’t been back since, though a part-time role is certainly a factor in that conversation. Davis will be seeking a more full-time opportunity in 2022, and a change of scenery probably makes sense for both sides. Contractually he projects to a $2.5M arbitration salary for 2022, with two more years of arbitration eligibility still remaining.

Jose Ramirez (INF, CLE)

Cleveland is probably ready to move on from their long-time All-Star, but they won’t do it on the cheap. Ramirez holds a $12M salary for 2022, then a $14M club option 2023 - ideally friendly salaries for any team looking to take on the 29 year old’s services. The Blue Jays had plenty of interest in this move last year.

Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB, 31)

Kiermaier missed 40 games in 2021, but still posted decent production, and a 3.4 WAR across the season. His contract carries a $12M salary in 2022, & a $13M club option for 2023, numbers that generally scream “get out” based on Tampa Bay’s financial limits. 

Sean Manaea (SP, OAK, 30)

The Athletics could be in store for a very busy spring with (at least) three notable trade candidates. Manaea will be entering the final year of team control, set to earn an estimated $10M in the final year of arbitration. He’s a more traditional pitcher in that his advanced metrics don’t exactly jump off the page, but he’s a perfect middle of the rotation add for some of the better teams in the game, if even for just one year. He aligns well with the 4 year, $44M contract Steven Matz just scored in St. Louis.

Sonny Gray (SP, CIN, 32)

While the home runs against are up, Gray made the most of his time in Cincinnati - after a tumultuous tenure with the Yankees. There's middle of the rotation value here, and with a $10.3M salary for 2022, plus a $12M club option in 2023, there's very little risk involved as well.

Craig Kimbrel (RP, CWS, 33)

The White Sox overpaid for Kimbrel last summer, and they’ll look to get some of that compensation back via a trade this spring. He’s on the books for $16M this season, but it probably takes Chicago eating a few million of that to get him out the door. The Rangers and Blue Jays seem to be in serious “all-in” mode this offseason for a move like this.

Josh Hader (RP, MIL, 27)

Hader’s been rumored in trades for the better part of two seasons now. He’s still under team control through 2023, headed for an arbitration 3 salary in the $8M range for 2022. Milwaukee will want a mix of top prospects and MLB ready talent back in a Hader move, and the Mets currently seem best positioned to offer that. Hader projects to a 4 year, $70M extension in our system.

A first round pick, a third round pick and a 6th round pick, for a second round pick, a seventh round pick, and the rights to pay Khalil Mack. That’s the move that brought the now 31 year old edge rusher from the Raiders to the Bears. Chicago in turn signed him to a 6 year, $141M contract extension, of which $91M has been paid out.

Mack offered up 36 sacks in 3.5 years, and until last season was largely available, consistent, and productive across the board. Was this the right time to move on? Much of the Bears current roster construction says yes, especially as much of the team’s focus will be on protecting, and offering weapons for their next attempt at a franchise QB.

Terms of the Trade

The Chargers send the Bears a 2022 2nd round pick (#48), & a 2023 6th round pick for the rights to Khalil Mack. The #48 pick projects to carry a cap hit of $1.4M in 2022, so LAC will free up a bit of space in that regard.

The Traded Contract

2022: $17.75M ($12.05M salary, $5.5M roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2023: $22.9M ($17.2M salary, $5.5M roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2024: $23.25M ($17.55M salary, $5.5M roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)



The Chargers agreed to take on all of Mack’s remaining contract, to the tune of 3 years, $63.9M. But - as with almost every NFL contract - not everything is as it first seems.

While a $5.5M roster bonus is due next Friday, the remaining contract offers no other “upfront” guarantees from here out. Even his $12.05M base salary for 2022 won’t fully lock in until Week 1. So theoretically speaking, the Chargers could walk away from this contract after 2022 with no financial impact.

Cap Flexibility

Not only does a Joey Bosa Khalil Mack combo on the field offer flexibility in terms of defensive rush scheming, but there’s plenty of wiggle room in each of their contracts for cap clearing as needed.

With Mack specifically, the acquired contract brings on zero dead cap with it. His roster bonus will vest next week, but it probably makes sense for the Chargers to restructure this a bit in the next few days to free up additional cap space for what seems like a major push this March.

Is it required? No, the Chargers currently rank 13th in terms of Top 51 cap space with just under $25M to work with, but if the plan is to add another piece to their secondary, or a notable TE for Herbert to utilize, more room will be required (not to mention Derwin James needs a top of the market extension).

Converting the $5.5M roster bonus into a signing bonus, spread out over the final 4 years of the contract frees up over $4M of cap space this year. That might be all the Chargers opt to do with this contract to keep the dead cap at a minimum.

However, a full restructure of all 2022 compensation, with another void year added, can drop his 2022 cap hit all the way down to $4.44M, freeing up over $13M of cap space for the Chargers to utilize.

Positional Spending

The benefit of a great QB on a rookie contract is of course the ability to overspend a bit elsewhere. Keenan Allen & Mike Williams now represent $33.2M of combined 2022 cap dollars. Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack now represent a whopping $46M of combined 2022 cap dollars.

And the Chargers aren’t yet done.

Minimum Salaries

The minimum salary in MLB for the 2021 season was $570,500, by far the lowest in all of the big four American sports. The new CBA addresses this undervaluation:

2022: $700,000
2023: $720,000
2024: $740,000
2025: $760,000
2026: $780,000

Not only have the salaries increased, but the annual increase in each year of this CBA has grown as well. From 2017-2021, the minimum salary went from $535,000 to $570,500, a 6.6% increase versus what will now be north of 11%.

Note: The $700,000 minimum salary still ranks last among the Big 4 for 2022
NBA: $925,000; NHL: $750,000; NFL: $705,000; MLB: $700,000

Minor Leaguers with major league contracts also see a strong increase in their base pay. First year players saw a minimum salary of $43,000 last year, with all other minor leaguers on a $93,000 pay grade. That now increases to:

2022: $57,200; $114,100
2023: $58,800; $117,400
2024: $60,300; $120,600
2025: $62,000; $123,900
2026: $63,600; $127,100

The Competitive Balance Tax

New Thresholds (Maximums)
The 2021 season held a $210,000,000 threshold for team tax salaries. This was one of the biggest battles throughout the negotiation process, but the final numbers ended up at:

2022: $230M
2023: $233M
2024: $237M
2025: $241M
2026: $244M

The tax threshold jumps up 9.5% immediately per the new CBA, but offers just 1.3%-1.4% increases annually from there (despite the minimum salary increasing at nearly 3%, like any normal working wage should).

Tax Tiers & Payer Rates
Teams that go over the tax threshold are now subject to four tiers (previously three) that dictate how they’ll be billed accordingly. Simply, every $20M a team goes over, the more they’ll be billed. And going over in subsequent years will mean even more pain (despite the fact that only 2-3 teams per year have been going over the threshold at any capacity).

The $50M Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

This was one of the bigger new asks from the MLBPA, and the resulting plan is both well thought out, and effective for the game’s current model.

In short, Pre-Arbitration represents a player’s first three seasons of service time in MLB. For the most part these players are earning, or slightly above, the league’s minimum salary. With this pool, players who well outperform these salaries will now be compensated via bonuses after the season (throwing a bit of a wrench into some of these team’s CBT calculations I imagine).

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Allocations

League MVP or Cy Young

• 1st: $2.5M
• 2nd: $1.75M
• 3rd: $1.5M
• 4th-5th: $1M

Rookie of the Year

• 1st: $750,000
• 2nd: $500,000

All-MLB Selection

• 1st Team: $1M
• 2nd Team: $500,000

WAR
The rest of the bonus pool will be allocated to the Top 100 WAR players in a given season (actual allocation breakdown to be confirmed by 7/1/22).

Note: If a player qualifies for two of these bonuses, he will only be awarded the highest possible payout. So Vlad Guerrero JR. winning rookie of the year ($750k), but also being selected to 1st-team All-MLB ($1M), would negate his ROY payment.

Arbitration

Contracts for all arbitration-eligible players will now be guaranteed, perhaps putting a bit more onus on extended these players to a multi-year contract versus just the one year tender.

Service Time Adjustments

While the 6 year requirement before free agency wasn’t addressed, a few small tweaks were built in to help a small percentage of players progress toward a payday.

• Pre-arbitration players who finish 1st or 2nd in Rookie of the year voting will automatically receive a full year of service (1.0), regardless of when those players were called up during that season.
• Teams who promote their top prospects for Opening Day (Pete Alonso with the Mets) will be rewarded with additional compensatory draft picks for their gesture.

Minor League Option Limits

Prior to this new CBA, MLB players were offered three seasons with “options”, essentially allowing a team to move to and from the minor leagues an unlimited amount of times within those three years.

While the three option seasons remain, there’s now a 5-move limit on how many times a player can be sent down. After 5 demotions, a player will need to pass through waivers in order to be sent down for the remainder of that season.

MLB Amatuer Draft Lottery

Essentially the only change implemented to improve “competitive imbalance”, the MLB Draft will no longer be ordered solely based on a team’s record from the previous season.

The first 6 selections in each draft will be determined by a lottery (essentially ping pong balls), allowing all 18 non-playoff teams a chance to vie for these picks. The percentage at which these 18 teams will be weighted (more ping pong balls) will be based on their previous year winning percentage.

Once the 6 picks are chosen via lottery, the remaining draft order will be set based on previous year winning percentage.

Also of note, the amateur draft will revert back to 20 rounds, and slot values (signing bonuses) will have annual increases after a two year hiatus due to the pandemic.

Expanded Playoffs

The MLB Postseason is expanded from 10 teams to 12 teams, effective immediately. A few notable takeaways:

• 163rd Game Tiebreakers are dead. Playoff spot tiebreakers will be decided based on a “system”, likely pulling from strength of schedule, divisional wins, run differential, etc…
• Wild Card Games are now a Wild Card Series. The Top 2 overall teams in each League get a Wild Card bye. From there, the 3rd seed plays 6, 4th seed plays 5 in a Best-of-Three series. The higher seed will host every game in this round.
• There will be no re-seeding when we get to the Divisional Round. The 1st seed will play the winner of the 4 / 5 matchup, and the 2nd seed the winner of the 3 / 6 series.

Roster/Schedule Changes

Universal DH
As expected, the Designated Hitter is now in place in both leagues, which should not only help NL batting averages rise, but also elongate a few more careers per year.

Roster Sizes
Roster sizes will remain at 26 players until September, at which time an extra two players will be added. Note: It should be assumed that for 2022, roster sizes may be adjusted to accommodate the expedited schedule.

Rule Changes
Though items like the pitch clock, banning shifts, etc…have not been immediately implemented, the opportunity for them to be has been expedited. Starting in 2023, a committee of active players, MLB execs, and an umpire will be tasked with considering gameplay alterations. Any change can be made effective within 45 days of notice to the MLBPA.

Doubleheaders & Extra Innings
Doubleheaders will be 9-inning games again, and extra inning games will no longer start with a runner at second base.

Games Schedule
Starting in 2023, the schedule will feature fewer divisional games, and every team will play at least one series against every other opponent, including in the other league. The exact format is still being determined.

The International Draft

This issue has been tabled for now, with a July 25th, 2022 deadline in place to negotiate its future. The negotiation will be VERY important from the player’s perspective for a few reasons:

• International players do not want this at all. The opportunity for dozens of players to receive a bonus and at least get a shot to make a camp tryout will be extinguished, as the draft will likely only offer this opportunity to a select few. There’s also a major concern that international communities simply do not have a structure in place to prepare for this type of formal process.
• If the MLBPA does not agree to implement the International Draft, then the current draft pick compensation tied to qualifying offers will remain in place, further jettisoning star player’s chances are getting the best deal possible in free agency.

Despite much less speculation this offseason in comparison to last, the Seahawks traded QB Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, signaling the end to a fantastic 10 year relationship. We’ll discuss the details of the trade, what’s next for Wilson financially, & what’s left for Seattle going forward.

The Trade

Denver Receives

Russell Wilson (QB, 33)
As the key part of this cog, Russell Wilson brings along a 2 year, $51M contract, including cap & cash hits of $24M for 2022, $27M for 2023. Wilson is owed a $5M roster bonus on March 20th, so if a restructured extension is forthcoming, there’s some sense it may happen prior to that date.

2022 4th Round Pick (estimated #114)
The Broncos are now slated to pick back to back in Round 4. In total, they still maintain picks 64, 66, 75, 96, 113, 114, 137, 206, 222, 227 (exact picks estimated based on comps.)

Seattle Receives

Drew Lock (QB, 25)
Lock brings a 1 year, $1.45M, non-guaranteed, contract with him to Seattle. For now, he’s probably the odds on favorite to start Week 1, competing with Jacob Eason, and potentially Geno Smith (a pending free agent).

Noah Fant (TE, 24)
The talented tight end holds a $2.2M, non-guaranteed, salary for 2022, with a $6.85M option in 2023 that must be exercised by May 3rd (likely). He stands to thrive in a Seattle offense that has always held the position in high regard (when the right kind of playmaker exists). Gerald Everett & Will Dissly are pending free agents.

Shelby Harris (DT, 30)
Harris carries a 2 year, $17M contract with him to Seattle, including cash/cap hits of $8M for 2022, $9M for 2023. $5M of his 2022 salary is already fully guaranteed. He’ll replace pending free agent Al Woods on the defensive line.

2022 1st Round Pick (#9)
A draft deep with O-Tackles, Edge Rushers, & Cornerbacks should make this a very valuable pick for Seattle.

2023 1st Round Pick
This might be the big one. If the plan is to punt on taking or acquiring a new starting QB in 2022 in order to make a run at one of the major prospects in 2023, having capital to move up in that draft will be important.

2022 2nd Round Pick (#40)
Plenty of Day 1 starters are drafted here.

2023 2nd Round Pick
More ammo to move up?

2022 5th Round Pick (#144)

What’s Next for Seattle?

There are two immediate ways for this franchise to go:

• Continue to rip-it down with more trades and releases in the coming days, loading up on draft picks in order to fully rebuild this thing.
• Trim off some more fat, but hold on to the major pieces. Prepare for a tough 2022 season, with the intention of selecting the next immediate QB1 in the 2023 draft. Is starting Drew Lock the best way to secure a high 2023 pick?

Notable Financials

• Trading Wilson freed up $11M of cap from his contract ($37M starting point, $26M stays). That $11M went directly into the salaries of the 3 newcomers (Fant, Harris, Lock), who account for $11.6M of 2022 salary cap.
• The #9 pick should account for around $4.2M in cap, while the added #40 pick will tack on another $2M or so.
• Despite ample cap space, Bobby Wagner likely still falls off of this roster. It’s perfectly possible his replacement comes with the #9 pick. There’s $16.6M of cap space to be freed up by moving on. (Wagner was released 3/9)
• Speculation rose immediately after the Wilson move that Tyler Lockett could be next to move, but his contract makes this a difficult trade, as the deal holds $15.2M of signing bonus proration. Furthermore, a $13M option bonus that became fully guaranteed last month is set to be paid between March 16th - March 20th, meaning Seattle would need to get out from under this and trade Lockett immediately, taking on the $15.2M dead cap hit all in 2022. It's possible - but not likely.

What’s Next for Denver?

The Broncos have been preparing for a move like this for the past 18 months, with in-house extensions, a few notable releases/trade aways, and a new coaching staff. The offensive line is in pretty good shape, the secondary is exceptional, and the weapons have the potential to be as good as any in the league.

There are legitimate question marks on the defensive line and certainly on the edge, notably what the future holds for Bradley Chubb. With a projected $26M of cap space (and plenty more should Denver restructure Garrett Bolles, Justin Simmons, or even Wilson), there’s a reasonable expectation that the Broncos will be in the market for a major pass rusher this month. The likes of Chandler Jones, DeMarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark, or even the return of Von Miller could very much be on the table here.

What’s Next for Russell Wilson?

Will Wilson take a cue from Matthew Stafford and leave his contract alone for a year before re-upping with his new franchise? Generally speaking, it behooves the player to do so, as recency bias can work wonders in amplifying a negotiation. Stafford is likely days away from a $45M+ per year contract extension in Los Angeles, as the quarterback money continues to climb at a much higher rate than any other position.

From a valuation standpoint, Wilson currently projects to a 3 year, $128M extension in our system (tacked on to the remaining 2 years of his current contract. His production has suffered over the past two seasons, along with the Seahawks offense as a whole. With new weapons to play with in Denver, a rejuvenated Wilson easily finds himself in the $46M+ range, especially at just age 33.

Prediction: Wilson plays 2022 on his $24M salary, and signs a 4 year, $192M extension next offseason.

Starting with the 2018 draft, 5th year options for all 1st round selections took on a very different calculation process. The big deciding factor now? Pro Bowls. The valuation process for the 5th year option is broken down into 4 tiers:

Tier 1: A player is selected to 2+ Pro Bowls in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 2: A player is selected to 1 Pro Bowl in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 3: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, but plays in either 75% of snaps in 2 of 3 seasons, or an average of 50% over all 3
Tier 4: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, nor does he meet the necessary playing time criteria

March 8th is the deadline for teams to designate a franchise or transition tag.
Related: Projected 2022 Tag Values

Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, KC)

• Has been offered a $16.5M tag by the Chiefs
• Was acquired for a 1st, 3rd, & 4th (while also getting a 2nd & 6th)
• Projects to a 5 year, $116.5M historic extension

Davante Adams (WR, GB)

• Should be offered a $20.145M franchise tag (120% of his 2021 cap hit)
• Packers are trying to avoid the tag, as they simply do not have the cap space to take it on
• Aaron Rodgers’ March 8th deadline isn’t an accident, it’s the end of the tag window. He goes I go situation
• Projects to a 5 year, $129M extension in our system, easily the largest total value for any WR in history (Calvin Johnson, $113.45M)
• Adams is looking to surpass Julio Jones’ $64M of fully guarantee at signing

Chris Godwin (WR, TB)

• May be offered a 2nd tag at $19.18M
• Won’t be available all offseason, projects to return right at Week 1 (torn ACL/MCL)
• Bucs smelling blood in a weak division? Band-aid QB with tons of weapons?
• Projects to a 5 year, $103M extension (but might need to prove health?)

Mike Williams (WR, LAC)

• Should be offered an $18.5M tag by the Chargers
• Likely to play on it? (Feels Godwin-y)
• Projects to a 5 year, $90M extension
• LAC has the cap space to structure this as a “double-tag” extension with value in years 3-5 if they so choose.

Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)

• Will be offered an $11M tag by the Dolphins
• Could argue that he’s a WR based on his formation numbers, but not likely ($7.5M difference)
• Miami probably extends him, I would not. I believe the $11M tender is both fair and good business for a team with a lack of identity right now.
• Projects to 4 years, $44M (same value as the tag)

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

• Should be offered an $11M tag by the Cowboys
• Blake Jarwin’s injury status secures his spot
• Projects to a 4 yr, $50M+ extension

Harold Landry (LB, TEN)

• Should be offered an $18.5M tag by the Titans
• TEN will need to restructure a few contracts to fit this in
• Strong candidate to play on the tag
• Projects to a 4 year, $68M contract (Shaq Barrett-y)

Jessie Bates (S, CIN)

• Will be offered a $13M tag by the Bengals
• Bengals possess around $49M of cap space
• Projects to a 5 year, $74M+ extension
• Probably plays on the tag, while Cincy focuses cash on the OL?

James Conner/Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)

• Arizona wants to keep both RBs, Transition Tag for one?
• Keim has shown he’ll do this with Kenyan Drake
• Is keeping one at $8.5M(ish) too expensive from a cap perspective?
• I’d rather see them sign both at $5M-$6M multi-year extensions, with cap flexibility built in.