Current Contract

Tom Brady’s contract has 1 year, $27.2M cash left, including a $20.2M cap figure for 2022. This includes an $8.925M base salary & $1.4M roster bonus, neither of which will be paid out now. It also includes $15M of signing bonus that was deferred from March 2021 to February 4th. We’ll get to this more in a moment.

Dead Cap Scenario

Brady’s contract carries $32M of dead cap for 2022, all of which would hit the Buccaneers cap table if the retirement is processed before June 1st. As this represents $12M of lost cap, this seems unlikely.

The most likely path forward is likely an immediate restructure to the remaining cash portion of this contract, reducing the base salary from $8.925M to $1.12M, removing the $1.4M roster bonus, and eliminating the $1.875M of likely to be earned incentives. This drops the cap figure from $20.2M, down to $9.12M. The Buccaneers will carry this cap hit on their active roster until June 1st, after which they can place Brady on the reserve/retired list.

By waiting until June, the Buccaneers will allow the $32M of dead cap to split up much more favorably across 2022 & 2023, to the tune of:
2022: $8M
2023: $24M

While the $24M dead cap hit for 2023 seems large (and it is), the NFL League Salary Cap is expected to rise immensely next season (and beyond) thanks to a huge influx of revenue from the recently agreed to Network/Streaming contracts. 

The Original Signing Bonus

The only real point of financial contention with Tom Brady retiring is the $20M signing bonus, of which Tampa Bay now has the option of recouping a maximum of $16M from. If the Buccaneers go this route, Brady would be required to pay back $4M in each of the next 4 seasons (2022-2025), with Tampa Bay getting $4M of cap relief in each following respective season.

However, as noted above, $15M of that $20M signing bonus has yet to be paid out, so there’s a path for Tampa Bay to simply not pay this out, and move forward from here.

My two cents? It’s a big chunk of change, but a $16M parting gift to Tom Brady for choosing their franchise and immediately taking them to the promise land seems like pretty good optics and business for the organization.

Career Earnings

Brady's final earnings won't be fully known until we understand how the Buccaneers will treat the signing bonus. If they recoup all $16M, the $292.9M figure currently showing on Spotrac will actually drop to $291.9M. If Tampa Bay elects to pay out the entire bonus as a gesture, his final on-field earnings will increase to $307.9M, easily the most all-time (for a minute).

The Rams & Bengals head toward Super Bowl 56 coming from two very different places. Our look at their 2021 financials, future cap, free agents, draft capital, & extension candidates going forward.

2021 Payroll Comparisons

In terms of active salary cap allocated in 2021…
Bengals: $154M (7th)
Rams: $121M (22nd)

In terms of actual cash spent in 2021…

Bengals: $194M (23rd)
Rams: $189M (26th)

In terms of 2021 Free Agent spending
Bengals: $136M (6th)
Rams: $7.7M (31st)

How the Starters were Acquired

Based on 11 offensive starters, 11 defensive starters, a kicker, & a punter
Both teams have found success in upgrading through free agency, while the Rams have simply forfeited draft picks for proven experience via the trade.

Bengals
Draft: 15 | Free Agency: 7 | Trade: 1 | UDFA: 1

Rams
Draft: 11 | Free Agency: 7 | Trade: 4 | UDFA 2

2022 Salary Cap

The current average amount of cap space for a team heading into the offseason is $15M. There's a stark contrast between the two 2021 finalists in terms of their offseason financial health.

Bengals: $56.3M
Cincinnati currently sits 4th in the league in projected Top 51 cap space for 2022, but only 36 players are currently under contract (will eventually be 90). Luckily, the list of starters or notable reserves out of contract are extremely limited, meaning the Bengals will be able to use their cap & draft capital to upgrade and apply depth across this roster. Moving on from Trae Waynes frees up another $11M as well.

Rams: -$8M
LAR is going to be running right up against the line for the next few seasons as they build through experience and not necessarily their (lack of) drafts. 7 players carry a cap hit north of $15M for 2022 currently, most of which will either restructure salary, or sign a restructured extension in the coming months to get the Rams on the right side of the cap for March. To name a few: Ramsey (base salary restructure clears $11M), Floyd (base salary restructure clears $12M), Donald (roster bonus restructure clears $4M).

Notable Free Agents

Rams (Full List)
Von Miller (OLB, 32)
Sony Michel (RB, 26)
Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR, 29)
Brian Allen (C, 28)
Austin Corbett (G, 26)
After handing away a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a half season of Von Miller, will the Rams feel obligated to extend the 32 year old? Sony Michel showed promise behind this run-first offensive line, but likely prices himself out of a return to LA, while the discussion for OBJ becomes much more complicated with each passing, productive week. He’s a fit for Stafford and Co., but can they financially fit him into an arsenal with Kupp, Woods, & Jefferson all healthily under contract?

Bengals (Full List)
Jessie Bates III (S, 24)
B.J. Hill (DT, 26)
Quinton Spain (G, 30)
C.J. Uzomah (TE, 29)

Jessie Bates’ stock plateaued a bit entering the 2021 season, but he’s been one of the most visibly necessary players on the field. He’s a franchise tag candidate ($13M), with eyes on a $16M+ per year extension. B.J. Hill & Quinton Spain can probably be upgraded upon (though Hill had a strong year), while Uzomah has clear chemistry with Burrow, but he’s an overpay candidate on the open market that could impact his ability to return.

Notable Extension Candidates

C.J. Uzomah, TE, CIN
Uzomah’s career feels a little like that of Jonnu Smiths, whom the Patriots just wildly overpaid for ($12.5M per year) this past offseason. Now looking for contract #3, a 3 year, $24M extension seems to make sense.

Jessie Bates, S, CIN
Bates has been one of the most impactful players on the field through this Cincy postseason run, peaking at the perfect time contractually speaking. He’s a $13M franchise tag candidates, with Harrison Smith’s $16M per year deal as a foundationally start point on a multi-year extension.

Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR
The good news? Acquiring Matthew Stafford helped bring the Rams back to the Super Bowl. The bad news? With just 1 year, $23M left on his current contract, he’s due for another major payday, and currently projects to a 4 year, $166M extension.

Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
Kupp has 2 year remaining on his current contract with the Rams, but carries cap hits of $18.6M & $18M respectively across that period. An extension not only helps lower the current hit, but will align him with Stafford’s new contract, and offers him a well-deserved raise all in one shot. Kupp projects to a 4 year, $95M extension currently.

Von Miller, LB, LAR
Valuing edge rushers over 30 years old has become a bit of a crapshoot, with J.J. Watt bagging $14M per year, and Melvin Ingram sitting on a near veteran minimum salary in 2021. Miller still has the production to garner a $10M+ contract, but taking less and structuring a team-friendly deal to remain in LAR seems like pretty good business for someone who’s already cashed $144M out of the league.

Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, LAR
Nobody’s going to hate this more than OBJ himself, but from a strictly numbers standpoint, his next contract projects to 2 years, $12M. There’s no question is abilities have been resuscitated in this Rams’ offense, but with significant capital allotted to Kupp & Woods already, sticking in LA almost certainly means less than desired dollars for Beckham Jr. If he hits the market, it’s very likely bad teams will be offering to double this kind of compensation.

Future Draft Picks

Bengals
2022: (Projected pick numbers) 31, 63, 95, 132, 140, 172, 209, 223, 249
2023: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
2024: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Rams
2022: 101, 139, 173, 211, 212, 213, 235, 250
2023: 2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 7
2024: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

The rumors were bound to restart eventually, and Nathaniel Hackett officially becoming the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos today certainly did just that. So what does Aaron Rodgers' contract tell us about what his 2022 outlook is?

The Current Contract As Is (Very Unlikely)
Rodgers’ current deal contains 1 year, $27M cash left, none of it fully guaranteed at the moment (not until Week 1). However, the deal also contains $26.8M of dead cap stemming from the original signing bonus, a 2019 restructure and a 2021 restructure. Can Rodgers remain on this contract as is through 2022? A $46.6M cap hit says most likely not, as it will greatly impact the Packers ability to re-sign free agents and improve upon their roster this offseason.


The Current Contract, Restructured (Possible)
A discussion not being mentioned enough is the possibility that Rodgers will agree to come back to the Packers for 1 more season, but wants the ability to hit the open free agent market thereafter in 2023 - following in Tom Brady’s footsteps. This will require a restructure of his current base salary to reduce the $46.6M cap hit to a more manageable number. A full base salary restructure, while tacking on 4 void years to the back end of this contract, will drop the 2022 cap hit from $46.6M down to $25.8M, over $20M saved.

But would the Packers even want this? It’s strange to imagine Green Bay turning away from Aaron Rodgers if he wants to go the “1 and done” route here, but it’s a better business move for them to do so - unless they truly believe there’s a chance for a Super Bowl in 2022-23. Financially speaking the 2022 cap hit becomes a wash - either $26M of dead cap to trade him now, or $25.8M of active cap to have him back as QB1 for the season (after which a larger dead cap hit kicks in). But allowing Rodgers to walk into free agency without compensation seems like the wrong decision for the franchise. Rodgers is as valuable to a new team as he’s ever been right now, and the trade compensation packages being floated around the hot stove would allow the Packers to quickly rebuild in many facets of their roster, immediately. 


The Marriage Is Fixed, An Extension is Signed (?)
If the two sides agree that a few more years together makes sense, the conversation will quickly turn to just how that next contract should look. While there are an infinite number of possibilities in terms of cost and structure, I’ve gone with the one that Rodgers has always agreed to - a maximum contract. This time however, I’ve stripped it down to two new years (3 years total) - with a fully guaranteed structure. 2 new years, $92M of new money, a total of 3 years, $120M - fully guaranteed at signing.


New Money AAV: $46M (1st), Guarantees at Sign: $120M (1st).Void years help keep the cap hits somewhat “mild”, but there’s no question this is not exactly the most team-friendly contract out there. Call me crazy, but I don’t anticipate team-friendly being in Aaron Rodgers’ negotiation plans - yet.


An Early Offseason Trade (Likely)
If Aaron Rodgers is traded before June 1st, 2022, the Packers will take on a $26.8M dead cap hit for 2022, freeing up $19.3M of much needed space.


A Late Offseason Trade (Not Likely)
If the trade is processed after June 1st, 2022, the Packers will be able to split up the $26.8M of dead cap into $19.1M for 2022, and $7.6M in 2023, freeing up $26.9M of cap space in 2022 (but not until June 2nd).


An Outright Release (Ridiculously Unlikely)
The dead remains the same ($26.8M if released prior to June 1st, $19.1M/$7.6M if after), but they’ll eliminate all chance for compensation - including a compensatory draft pick. It’s a non discussion.


Rodgers Retires (Possible)
Until he speaks, this has to remain a possibility going forward. The financials become a little bit more complicated in this instance, as the Packers will want to use timing to make this work to their benefit. If Rodgers comes to the front office next month and tells them he’s hanging them up, Green Bay will do the following with his contract:

• Reduce his 2021 base salary to $1,120,000 (the veteran minimum)
• Eliminate his $500,000 workout bonus
• Carry the remaining $20.3M as an active cap hit until June 2, 2022
• Place him on the Reserve/Retired list on June 2, 2022, dropping the cap hit to $19.1M
• His $7.6M void cap will hit the Packers 2023 salary cap

This allows Green Bay to retain his rights through all of 2022 (meaning a team will still have to trade for him through this season to acquire him), while reducing the cap hits they hold for him down to the dead cap numbers only.

It's long been said that the second a quarterback signs a maximum level contract extension, his respective team's ability to remain in contention vastly decreases. And while recent data and trends do allude to that (no player with the highest average salary in the league has ever won the Super Bowl), the Bills & Chiefs just battled to the playoff death with respective quarterbacks sitting on $43M+ contracts.

So how have the Chiefs reached 4 straight AFC Conference Championships, despite the last two being clinched with their QB1 on a $450M contract extension?

Structure (view the full contract).

The cap isn't totally a myth (Saints, Eagles & Steelers fans know it eventually comes home to rob you in the end), but it's more flexible than an other financial metric in sports. It can be massaged, pushed around, piled up in one bunch, or even traded away in certain instances. 

The reality of Patrick Mahomes' contract extension is that it really doesn't start to get interesting from a cap & cash standpoint until 2022. Mahomes has earned just $33.7M cash over the first two seasons of his new contract - just $6M more than he would have reeled in had he stayed on his rookie contract through all 5 years. His 2020 cap figure was just $5.3M. His 2021 cap figure, following a $21M restructure, was $7.4M. His 2022 cap figure currently sits at $35.8M, but another restructure can drop that down to $13.8M - handing his team another $22M of cap space to work with next season. 

So this all sounds great, but the Chiefs are just pushing this down the line and delaying the inevitable, right? Right. That's exactly what's happening here. This is the window to push everything out of the way and keep pressing. Mahomes & his camp know he can't step onto a field and win 21 games on his own, and if the front office continues to do their job, moving cap around for Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and some of the O-Lineman will continue to be an annual tradition - as long as the roster still smells like a contender. 

So when will things start to get dicey with this contract? If the 2022 restructure happens as I've laid out (convert his $27.4M roster bonus into signing bonus), this will create a $52.2M cap charge in 2023! Again, there's a $34.4M roster bonus to be restructured as needed (and a massive roster bonus each and every year through 2031), but eventually enough will be enough. There will be a thick black line drawn soon defining the current window (and significant, expensive pieces), and the next window - both of which will include Patrick Mahomes, and this gigantic contract. 

How long will Mahomes truly stay in this contract? The structure of it makes it purely his decision. With early guarantees built in all the way through, the Chiefs truly have no "easy" out with this deal, but it stands to reason that at some point, Mahomes and KC will agree to cut this thing off and start anew - both for team cap purposes, and for cash flow adjustment. 

Current Contract Yearly Cashflow Rank:
Year 1: $10.9M (210th)
Year 2: $33.7M (57th)
Year 3: $63.1M (24th)
Year 4: $103.6M (12th)
Year 5: $141.5M (5th)
Year 6: $183.5M (2nd, Allen)

When you look at the contract through this lens, it's clear as day just how middle-back loaded it is. There are left tackles and edge rushers and wide receivers ahead of Patrick Mahomes' 3-year cash payout. His own teammate Frank Clark earned $65.2M across his first three seasons. Dak Prescott's $126M is literally double the 3 year payout that Mahomes' agreed to. Current NFL Contract Cumulative Cash Flow

My guess for when the two parties force their way out? Prior to the 2027 season. This will give Mahomes $225M over 7 years of this contract (still with $252M to go). The 2027 season is currently slated for a whopping $59.95M cash. It stands to reason that much of this can be converted into a restructured extension signing bonus, ripping up the rest of the contract and structuring it to be a little more "player-friendly) for the second act to his career, when this current iteration of the Chiefs should be gone, if not dwindling down. 

Arizona Cardinals

Is Kyler Murray Ready to be Paid?
He’s gotten better every year statistically speaking, but he and the Cardinals have floundered down the stretch two seasons in a row. Kyler Murray is extension eligible for the first time now, and carries a $43M valuation in our system, projecting to a 6 year, $260M extension.

Buffalo Bills

Is Tremaine Edmunds a 2nd-Contract Player?
The advanced metrics have never been on Edmunds’ side, and in many cases - either has the eye test. But Edmunds has a chance to be a focal point in this postseason run for the Bills, starting immediately with a chance to shut down a strong Patriots run game Saturday night. The AFC playoff teams are full of good running backs and talented tight ends - meaning Edmunds will need to be a factor for the BIlls to remain alive. His $12.1M option year in 2022 is fully guaranteed.

Cincinnati Bengals

Did Cincy Roster A Deep Enough Offensive Line?
We only need to look back one season to understand just how important the depth of an O-Line is at this time of year (Chiefs), and there’s no question that the Bengals improved in this regard in 2021. The Bengals possessed the 31st ranked O-Line in 2020 according to Football Outsiders, but improved that standing up to 15th in 2021. The current starting line is comprised of a 1st round pick (LT), a UDFA (LG), a UDFA C a 6th round pick (RG), a 6th round pick (RT).

Dallas Cowboys

Is Cedrick Wilson the 2022 WR3?
With Michael Gallup now injured and slated for free agency, it stands to reason that his tenure in Dallas has come to an end. In his absence, Cedrick Wilson (also slated for free agency) has picked up the pieces and then some. If he remains a factor throughout the postseason, will Dallas be conditioned to bring him back on a small extension for 2022+? Wilson carries a $6.5M valuation in our system currently.

Green Bay Packers

Can $75M Per Year Keep This Train on the Tracks?
The Packers went from offseason disaster to NFC #1 seed in a matter of weeks. After a forgettable opening week loss against the Saints, Rodgers & Co. have barely looked back across the next 17 weeks. With star WR Davante Adams on an expiring contract (and destined for a $20M tag), and Aaron Rodgers’ contract in need of some form of change (restructured extension, trade), can the Packers throw enough money at these two players in March to keep this band together for another window of contention? Adams projects to a 5 year, $130M extension, while Rodgers currently sits at 3 years, $140M.

Kansas City Chiefs

How Expensive Will Patrick Mahomes’ Blindside Be?
Part of the Chiefs’ master plan to return to the Super Bowl in 2021 was to add heavily to an offensive line that failed them last January. That began with the acquisition of OT Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens for a bounty of draft picks to go along with the massive free agent signing of LG Joe Thuney. Brown brought over a more than tenable $3.3M salary for the 2021 season, but that value is coming to a head in the next few weeks, as the 25 year old currently projects to a historic 5 year, $116.5M extension.

Las Vegas Raiders

Is Derek Carr Playing His Final Week(s) as a Raider?
Carr’s contract contains a non-guaranteed 1 year, $19.8M left on it, while QB2 Marcus Mariota is slated for free agency this March. It’s safe to assume that a few QB-needy teams will show interest in acquiring Carr if the Raiders even dangle the opportunity out there. This includes the Seattle Seahawks, who may be forced to move on from Russell Wilson, and would likely be very interested in bringing back a ready-made QB to drop into an offense full of weapons. The more likely outcome is that Vegas simply extends their current QB1, to the tune of 5 years, $175M

Los Angeles Rams

Is Matthew Stafford One and Done?
No, but contractually speaking there’s a ridiculously easy out after this season. It stands to reason that he’s done enough to have earned a sizable extension with the Rams, if for no other reason than the ridiculous compatibility he’s found with the WR1. Stafford’s current contract has 1 year, $23M remaining, and the 33 year old projects to a 4 year, $170M extension in our system.

New England Patriots

Will the Patriots Continue to Pay?
The Patriots’ 2021 offseason spending spree has been celebrated into saturation at this point, but the fact of the matter is - they’ll need to do a smaller version of it again to remain relevant in the division. Star cornerback JC Jackson is slated for free agency (and likely a tag) this offseason, as is RT Trent Brown, LB Donta Hightower, K Nick Folk, & S Devin McCourty - to name a few. It’s feasible that some of these spots can be replaced by previous or future draft selections, keeping finances at bay, but New England will need to spend more than they’ve been accustomed to in recent years to stay on this current path.

Philadelphia Eagles

Playing With House Money
The Eagles probably don’t belong in the same conversation with the majority of these playoff teams in terms of contention, but the fact that they scratched and clawed their way into this position sets them up for so many opportunities this offseason. Now they possess the best draft capital in the league, a dynamic QB1 who holds trade value if a veteran star shows interest in coming to town, a QB2 who holds trade value (likely better than the 6th round pick that was given up to acquire him), a 3-headed rushing attack that will take pressure off the QB, a young, financially locked in offensive line (minus Jason Kelce), and now a playoff berth to promote come free agency. A season that was designed to be the “purge” year in terms of dead cap and financial health, miraculously turned into one with winning as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Then What?
The Steelers admittedly don’t belong here. But they’re here, based largely on a run game, and well allocated defensive superstars. Fortunately, that qualifies as a pretty decent recipe for a “rebuild on the fly”, assuming they can immediately address the glaring hole at QB1, and the mish-mosh that is their WR core (D. Johnson, J. Smith-Schuster, J. Washington pending free agents, Claypool nearly invisible). This feels Minshewy.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo’s Winning Problem
We’ve been down this road before: The 49ers have a QB problem, except that QB when healthy continues to win ball games - just not in the manner in which the 49ers would prefer to win ball games. We’re headed toward a defining moment in San Francisco’s future. The decision can be very easily made if Garoppolo throws 3 passes to Trevon Diggs Sunday, but recent history sides with the 49ers in these type of matchups. Another lengthy postseason run puts the Trey Lance project on hold - at least momentarily. Jimmy G has a non-guaranteed 1 year, $25.6M left on his contract through 2022.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sleeping Giants?
Brady’s done much more with much less offensively speaking, and yet the Buccaneers are hardly being mentioned in the NFL Postseason projections. Maybe there’s fatigue (or doubt) stemming from the Antonio Brown circus, or maybe they’re simply being overlooked as legitimate repeat candidates. Leonard Fournette is the best he’s ever been (and playing for a contract). Gronk has a decade of experience in these types of settings (and playing for a contract), and the return of Shaq Barrett and Carlton Davis to the defense should become instant upgrades in that regard. There are worse ways to spend your gambling dollars this week.

Tennessee Titans

A.J. Brown’s Big Contract
When you look at the first three years of stats for Brown across the board, they seem underwhelming (with the exception of 11 TDs in 2020), but Brown has more than passed the eye test in a number of weeks in his young career. It’s simply a matter of keeping him healthy and the on field, and if Tennessee feels they can live with a few weeks missed throughout a season, then the time to pony up may be this offseason. Limited total production keeps his calculated value down around $18M per year, but it’s hard to imagine Brown not jumping into the $20M per year pool based on his potential.

With the NFL postseason upon us, a quick look at how players are compensated for each playoff round, broken down by team, based on the agreed upon CBA costs.

Wild Card Weekend
This round stands out from the rest because it contains split pay based on a few factors. If the Wild Card team was a regular season division winner, players will each earn $42,500. If the team of the Wild Card game was not a regular season division winner, players from that team will each earn $37,500 - a $5,000 difference.

Additionally, the two teams who secured a #1 seed and were rewarded a bye for the Wild Card round will earn the lesser of these two payments, or $37,500 per player.

Divisional Round Winners
All players who are on the active 53-man roster the Sunday immediately preceding the divisional round games will earn $42,500 this year, up $9,500 from last season’s postseason.

Conference Championship Winners
All players who are on the active 53-man roster the Sunday immediately preceding the conference championship games will earn $65,000, up $6,000 from last year.

Super Bowl Payouts
Players from the winning Super Bowl team will cash an extra $150,000 each, while those from the losing team will earn $75,000 for their efforts.

Potential AFC Team Playoff Earnings
(per player)

Potential NFC Team Playoff Earnings
(per player)

The Colts offseason has abrubtly started with their Week 18 surprise loss to the last place Jaguars. QB Carson Wentz seemed to solidify his role with a strong second half to the season, but his play this past Sunday will leave plenty with a bad taste in their mouth. 

If the Colts hadn’t sacrificed a 1st & 3rd round pick to acquire Wentz this past February, would it be a slam dunk that he would be handed the starting QB job in 2022? Let’s take a look at what the rest of his contract looks like from a stability standpoint.

Total Value
The deal has 3 years, $81.705M remaining, including $28.294M in 2022, $26.176M in 2023, & $27.235M in 2024. 

Guarantees & Dead Cap
$15M of his 2022 salary is already fully guaranteed, representing the only dead cap on the contract currently. If the Colts were to find a trade partner for Wentz this March, they could move him without taking on any dead cap, saving $13M of cap for the upcoming season. The date to watch is March 18th, when the remaining $7M of his 2022 salary full guarantees & a $6.29M roster bonus is paid. 

While unlikely, if Indy decides to outright release Carson Wentz before March 18th, they’d be responsible for his $15M of guaranteed salary, and nothing more. After 2022, the contract is in a pay-as-you-go format, with no early guarantees to deal with.

Concluding Thoughts
Despite a treacherous final weekend, Wentz actually stabilized the Indy offense for the better part of 2021. Factor in the ceiling for Jonathan Taylor, and ample cap space to add weapons to this roster in March, and it makes sense to let Carson take the reins for this team through 2022. The contract offers a free out after that, making Indy’s life much easier thereafter.x