December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last five years, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

• January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
• January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
• January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
• December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
• December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the results of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

Here’s an initial list of players to keep an eye on as trade season kicks into full gear:

Zach LaVine (Chicago Bulls)

Contract status: four years, $178 million
2023-24 salary: $40,064,220

Each year, there is a player we can kind of cheat on because they’ve been in the news cycle. This year, it’s LaVine. He’s currently recovering from right foot inflammation, but all reports are clear that LaVine’s time with the Bulls is coming to an end. One challenge? A LaVine trade could drag out until closer to the February 8 trade deadline, because matching salary for $40 million is tricky until more trade restrictions lift on January 15.

Jevon Carter (Chicago Bulls)

Contract status: three years, $19.5 million
2023-24 salary: $6,190,476

Sticking with Bulls for a moment…Yes, Chicago could go the full teardown route and move DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with Zach LaVine, but that doesn’t seem likely. What could happen is Jevon Carter being on the move. Despite being an offseason addition, Carter plays the least in a crowded Bulls backcourt. He has a very movable contract and could help a number of contenders. That’s a oft-seen recipe for a trade.

Reggie Jackson (Denver Nuggets)

Contract status: two years, $10.25 million
2023-24 salary: $5,000,000

This one might seem a little unfair, because Jackson is playing well for the Nuggets. But you have to read the tea leaves a bit in this sort of exercise. Jackson is the only salary Denver has that is large enough to potentially get them a player of value. He also waived his ability to block a trade when he re-signed with Denver this summer. The Nuggets didn’t get that concession for no reason. If Denver makes a meaningful trade, Jackson will probably be involved.

Miles Bridges (Charlotte Hornets)

Contract status: one year, $7.9 million
2023-24 salary: $7,921,301

It was reported over the summer that Bridges and the Hornets never got close on a long-term contract. That led to Bridges signing his qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, before serving the remainder of his suspension from the NBA for the first 10 games of the season. Bridges has played well since his return and looks like the guy who was in line for a max deal before domestic violence incidents cause him to miss last season. Bridges can block any trade, and a team will have to feel comfortable trading for him with his volatile past hanging over him (there’s another pending incident that is being investigated at some level). However, it’s clear Bridges isn’t likely to stay with Charlotte long-term, so that makes him someone teams will check in on for a potential trade.

Gordon Hayward (Charlotte Hornets)

Contract status: one year, $31.5 million
2023-24 salary: $31,500,000

Hayward is having a really good season. He’s shooting well and doing his all-around thing on both ends. Most importantly, he’s held up physically…so far. It’s a big number to trade for, but if a contender needs a player who can do a little to a lot of everything, Hayward should be in play. But it’s buyer beware, because it feels like the next injury is always lurking just around the corner.

Jerami Grant (Portland Trail Blazers)

Contract status: five years, $160 million
2023-24 salary: $27,586,207

When Grant re-signed with Portland this past summer, it felt like it was a “Convince Damian Lillard to stay” move. Lillard ended up asking for, and getting, a trade, but the Blazers maintained they were happy to have Grant staying in the fold. And he’s delivered a very solid season for Portland so far. But the Trail Blazers are rebuilding. It might be early for Grant to get traded, given the length of his contract, but it’s unlikely he’s going to see the end of this deal in Portland. And that means a trade could come while his number is lower and more easily acquirable.

Los Angeles Lakers

Players to watch: D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, Austin Reaves

The Lakers are always active on the trade market. They rebuilt their entire roster around LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves during trade season a year ago. If Los Angeles is going to make a significant deal this time around, some package of the players listed above is going to be how it gets done. We listed them in the order of “most likely to be traded” to least likely. D’Angelo Russell waived his implied no-trade clause, likely in exchange for some additional salary. That didn’t happen because a trade is off the table. Keep an eye on the Lakers over the next month or so.

Detroit Pistons

Players to watch: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Monte Morris

Detroit hung onto Bogdanovic and Burks last season because no one met their asking price, and they intended to be a postseason contender this season. Well, after 21 consecutive losses (as of this writing), Detroit can’t afford such luxuries this time around. They don’t need to give their veterans away, but it’s time to trade them off to contenders before the deadline. That’ll see the Pistons starting over yet again, but there’s no reason to keep bailing out this boat when it’s already at the bottom of the lake.

San Antonio Spurs

Players to watch: Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, Cedi Osman

The Spurs are almost as bad as the Pistons. They’ve lost 18 straight (as of this writing), but they at least have Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio also has a glut of wings that only kind of, sort of fit together. Recent reporting is that Johnson could be on the move to break up that logjam. McDermott and Osman are on expiring contracts and fill the ever-present need of wing shooting with size for contenders. Also worth noting: The Spurs have been a lot more active with in-season trades in recent years, after famously sitting out the trade deadline for the better part of two decades.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Tyus Jones, Delon Wright, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Landry Shamet

Washington is basically Detroit and San Antonio bad, minus the absurdly long losing streaks. The Wizards intentionally set upon this path though. After years of muddling around the middle, Washington’s new front office kicked off a long-awaited rebuild. Jordan Poole’s and Kyle Kuzma’s contracts might be too large to move in-season, but the Wizards have a host of tradable role players that could help playoff teams. All of the above players are on expiring or pseudo-expiring contracts too. That could make them really attractive to a team that wants to make a playoff push, but doesn’t want to lock in long-term just yet.

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green has been suspended by the NBA indefinitely for his most recent on-court actions in which he struck Jusuf Nurkic of the Phoenix Suns in the face during the Golden State-Phoenix game on December 12th. This suspension comes after Green had been suspended for five games for similar conduct during a game in November in which he put Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves in a chokehold.

What does indefinitely mean?

The indefinite suspension by the NBA means that Draymond Green is going to have to prove that he is worthy of returning to play based on his current and past conduct. It will most likely mean that Green will need to go through some form of counseling amongst other requirements that must be met.

More recently, Ja Morant was suspended indefinitely by the leave in June 2023 for his off-court conduct, which led to a total of 25 games suspended after further review of the incident. Morant is on track to rejoin the Memphis Grizzlies in the coming weeks.

How much does a suspension cost Draymond Green?

The NBA CBA dictates that for a suspension with 19 or fewer games a player will lose 1/145 of his salary for each game missed, while a suspension of 20 or more games a player will lose 1/110 of his salary for each game missed. 

In Draymond Green’s case, we currently do not know who many games he’ll be suspended for, so his situation will be a bit more fluid until an official amount is determined. Green currently has a salary of $22,321,429 and therefore stands to lose $153,941 per game for 19 or fewer games or $202,922 per game for 20 more or games.

How does this affect the Warriors cap sheet? 

It doesn’t. Draymond Green’s cap salary remains untouched at $22,321,429.

How does this affect the Warriors luxury tax situation?

Draymond Green was suspended by the NBA and not by the Golden State Warriors which makes a difference. If Green were to have been suspended by the Warriors, his salary for luxury tax purposes would remain untouched; however, since he was suspended by the NBA the Warriors stand to further save on their luxury tax bill with each game Green is suspended.

Whatever the amount a player is to lose due to a suspension, in Green’s case $153,941 per game or $202,922 per game, the total amount loss is cut in half and that amount is deducted from the luxury tax salary. For example, if Green were to be suspended 10 games (at the 1/145th tier) in total for this infraction/suspension he would lose $1,539,410 in actual salary which would equate to his luxury tax salary being reduced by $769,705. Furthermore, if Green were to be suspended 20 games (at the 1/110th tier) he would lose $4,058,440 in actual salary which would equate to his luxury tax salary being reduced by $2,029,220.

How does this help the Warriors estimated Luxury Tax bill?

At the time of Draymond Green’s first five game suspension the Warriors estimated luxury tax bill was $195.1 million. That suspension already saved Golden State more than $2.5 million in taxes. With an indefinite suspension, the Warriors stand to have even more substantial tax savings depending on the amount of games Green is to miss. 

Where the Warriors currently stand on Dec 14th, 2023:

At $207.89 million of taxable salaries the Warriors current estimated tax bill is just over $192.5 million.

If Draymond Green is suspended at most 19 games:

The estimated luxury tax bill will drop by nearly $9.87 million which would equate to a minimum of $519,551 in tax bill savings per game suspended.

If Draymond Green is suspended 20 games:

This is significant because the reduced luxury tax salary amount goes from $153,941 to $202,922 per game missed, and one additional game would drop the tax bill by $3.8 million. 

If Draymond Green is suspended 26 games:

This is significant due to the fact that this drops the Warriors out of the $6.75 tier for every $1 over that tiered threshold. 

If Draymond Green is suspended for the remainder of the season (59 games):

We’re not saying this will happen, but if for some reason Draymond Green was suspended for the remainder of the season (and Golden State did not add any other players to the roster, which is unlikely given roster needs if Green was out for the rest of the season) the Warriors would be looking at potentially $38.7 million in luxury tax savings. 

With deferrals on everybody’s mind, we thought it was a good time to bring to light all active MLB contracts that contain deferred compensation. The following is a look at 12 players, the total value of their contract, the calculated “present-day” value after deferrals, and the amount of cash that was deferred.

Rafael Devers (Red Sox, 3B)

Total Value: 10 years, $313,500,000
Present-Day Value: $291,526,861
Deferrals: $75,000,000

Devers signed his big payday the January prior to his final arbitration season in Boston. He scored a $20M signing bonus (paid $5M each of the first four seasons), while also agreeing to defer $75M (24%) of his $313.5M pact. Devers will earn $3.75M every February 1st & November 30th from 2034 thru 2043. The accounting saves Boston $2,197,314 against their tax payroll annually.

Chris Sale (Red Sox, SP)

Total Value: 5 years, $145,000,000
Present-Day Value: $128,000,000
Deferrals: $50,000,000

34% ($50, $10M annually) of Chris Sale’s 2019 extension in Boston was deferred until 2035, saving the Red Sox $3.4M against their CBT payroll every year. The 34-year-old is entering the final guaranteed season of this contract, with a $20M club option available for 2025 ($5M would be deferred to 2040 if it’s exercised).

Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers, SP/DH)

Total Value: 10 years, $700,000,000
Present-Day Value: $460,814,760
Deferrals: $680,000,000

Like the deal as a whole, Ohtani’s deferrals are unprecedented, as the 29-year-old agreed to push 97% of this contract out to 2034 in terms of cash payments. The move lowers the present day value of the contract by nearly $240M, dropping his annual CBT salary down nearly $24M in the process ($70M down to $46,081,476).

Mookie Betts (Dodgers, 2B/OF)

Total Value: 12 years, $365,000,000
Present-Day Value: $306,657,882
Deferrals: $115,000,000

5 months after the Dodgers acquired Betts from Boston, and 4 months before he would hit the open market for the first time, LA extended the MVP out another 12 seasons. 31.5% of that contract ($115M) was deferred until 2033, where Betts stands to earn between $8M-$11M annually each July 1st through 2044 (when he’ll be 51 years old). The move dropped Betts’ annual CBT salary from $30.41M per year, down to $25.5M per year.

Freddie Freeman (Dodgers, 1B)

Total Value: 6 years, $162,000,000
Present-Day Value: $148,195,494
Deferrals: $57,000,000

The Dodgers were able to secure Freeman away from the Braves by tacking on a 6th year that Atlanta refused to give into. In return, Freeman agreed to defer 35% of his new contract, lowering a potential $27M tax salary down to $24.7M. Freeman will see $4M each July 1st from 2028 through 2040 due to the deferred compensation.

Christian Yelich (Brewers, OF)

Total Value: 9 years, $215,000,000
Present-Day Value: $187,000,000
Deferrals: $28,000,000

The Brewers couldn’t wait to extend Yelich, adding on 7 years, $188.5M to an already in place 2 year, $26.5M contract (leftover from his extension with Miami). The new deal contained $28M of deferred compensation (14.8%), lowering his annual CBT salary by over $3M. Yelich will earn $2.3M each July 1st from 2031 through 2042.

Francisco Lindor (Mets, SS)

Total Value: 10 years, $341,000,000
Present-Day Value: $338,000,000
Deferrals: $50,000,000

Lindor’s megadeal in Queens included 14.6% ($50M) of deferred compensation, lowering his annual CBT salary from $34.1M, down to $33.8M for the Mets. In return, Lindor will earn $5M each July 1st from 2032 through 2041.

Edwin Diaz (Mets, RP)

Total Value: 5 years, $102,000,000
Present-Day Value: $93,000,000
Deferrals: $26,500,000

The largest relief pitcher contract in MLB history (for now) includes nearly 26% cash deferred, dropping the present-day value of the deal down to $93M, lowering his annual CBT salary from $20.4M to $18.6M. Diaz will earn $2.65M each July 1st from 2033 through 2042.

J.T. Realmuto (Phillies, C)

Total Value: 5 years, $115,000,000
Present-Day Value: $114,900,000
Deferrals: $10,000,000

While Realmuto agreed to defer $10M of his $20M salary for the 2021 season (to aid the Phillies cash flow coming out of the COVID season), the process did not create any adjustment to his overall CBT value. Realmuto will receive a $5M cash payment July 15th of 2026 & 2027, once his 5 year deal is completed after the 2025 season.

Nolan Arenado (Cardinals, 3B)

Total Value: 7 years, $214,000,000*
Present-Day Value: $183,333,330
Deferrals: $50,000,000

Arenado’s full contract chimes in at 8 years, $260M, signed with the Rockies back in February of 2019. However the deferred portion of this deal didn’t come into play until Colorado traded the annual Gold Glover to St. Louis. On top of the Rockies retaining $51M of cash per the trade, Arenado agreed to $50M of his remaining $199M (25%) with St. Louis. When the math all comes together, Arenado accounts for $25.5M against the Cardinals’ CBT annually through 2026. 

Patrick Corbin (Nationals, SP)

Total Value: 6 years, $140,000,000
Present-Day Value: $135,000,000
Deferrals: $10,000,000

Corbin’s 6 year contract (which comes to a close after 2024) contained a $10M deferral of his $35M base salary for the upcoming season. His tax salary drops from $23.3M to $22.5M in Washington this year.

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals, SP)

Total Value: 7 years, $245,000,000
Present-Day Value: $228,900,000
Deferrals: $80,000,000

$80M (32.6%) of Strasburg’s $245M free agent contract with the Nationals is deferred at $26.6M each July 1st of 2027, 2028, & 2029. The accounting move was simply a cash adjustment, as the Nationals gained no CBT benefit on this contract  ($35M per year), that runs through the 2026 season, despite Strasburg likely not being able to pitch again (injury).

Is this not entertaining enough for you baseball writers? You asked for Shohei Ohtani to be a better ambassador for the sport during this free agency tour. He kept his mouth shut, asked everyone around the process to do the same - then broke the economic wall with a contract structure that has local news anchors trying to decipher the CBT portion of the CBA on 5AM Wake Up broadcasts.

Money talks. Especially when you forgo 97% of it until a later date.

I chuckled at the initial report that Shohei Ohtani himself was the one who initiated the deferral package idea. It’s commonplace for credit to be thrown around as a way to coddle certain situations.

Then the details of the deferral package were uncovered. Not only is there nothing to laugh about anymore - but to say that anyone but Ohtani (and his agent Nez Balelo) deserves credit here would be a disrespect. Did the Dodgers float the idea of utilizing deferred compensation to lower his annual CBT rate and help a winning team stay competitive? Of course - and so did every single one of the other 8-12 teams who may have actually sniffed at this engagement.

But deferrals in MLB are a two way street, and more often than not, the player, his agent, and certainly his financial advisor(s), are the ones that pull the plug on long-term contracts that contain significant deferrals. Why? Money now please before it disintegrates with the rest of the economy in 10 years.

That’s not to say this doesn’t happen - it happens plenty. But no major American sports contract has ever been signed to this total value, with this average salary, only to have 97% of it sent away for a decade. Everything about Shohei Ohtani’s 10 year, $700M contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers is historic, and we do our best to detail it all here.

The Total Value Contract

Unprecedented. Ohtani will earn $700M over the next 20 years, fully guaranteed. We’ve heard nothing yet about any additional incentives being built in, so for now, this remains the base and max value of the contract.

Ohtani’s deal is $237.5M more than any other contract in the history of baseball, surpassing his old teammate Mike Trout ($426.5M), and new teammate Mookie Betts ($365M).

The Dodgers now have Ohtani, Betts, & Freddie Freeman on the books for over $1.2B in total guaranteed contract. There will be plenty of franchises that won’t spend that kind of money on their entire payroll for the next 5 years combined.

For context, the Atlanta Braves have been famously aggressive in signing their young talent to contract extensions over the past few offseasons. Here’s what $700M (precisely) has bought them:

Austin Riley through 2032 ($212M)
Matt Olson through 2030 ($168M)
Ronald Acuna Jr. through 2028 ($100M)
Spencer Strider through 2029 ($75M)
Sean Murphy through 2028 ($73M)
Michael Harris II through 2032 ($72M)

The Total Contract Average Salary

We need to word things in this manner because of the wild deferral structure (see below), but the base average annual salary on this contract comes in at a clean $70M for reporting purposes.

That’s $26.7M more than the previous leaders in the clubhouse, Justin Verlander & Max Scherzer ($43.3M). It’s Aaron Judge’s $40M per year salary as a position player, plus another $30M for his services as a starting pitcher.

Even if we think about it as a $35M split - it still seems relatively low, right? Ohtani has done enough at the plate to warrant becoming the highest paid batter in baseball. And while his pitching resume as a whole doesn’t scream annual Cy Young, a player with his numbers, hitting the open market as an available starting pitcher, would have commanded near top of the market money. It’s just how the league works.

The Deferrals

We knew this contract wouldn’t come without crazy - and we got plenty of it in regards to the deferral package.

Ohtani himself agreed to defer $68M of his $70M salary annually, without interest, into 2034-2043. That’s right, he’ll “only” be taking in $2M cash per year, or $20M total from the Dodgers over the next 10 seasons. Once this current contract is completed in 2033, Ohtani will earn $68M every July 1st from 2034- 2043. Take that Bobby Bonilla.

The future ramifications are significant in a variety of ways, possibly most notably from a personal tax perspective. The $680M deferred will become income based on wherever he resides in 2034 and beyond - so not necessarily a high income tax state like California. Shohei has afforded himself an opportunity to control his losses a bit with this deferral package.

Of course everyone with an eye for economics is screaming out loud this morning, as Ohtani’s deferral structure breaks the cardinal financial rule: Money today is always much more valuable than money down the road. I’m going to go out on a limb here though and claim that a financial package of $680M, plus Ohtani’s ability to earn upwards of $50M per year from endorsements, sponsorships, etc… allow him to break a few economic guidelines here and there.

One more thing, because I had to look for myself just to make sure this wouldn’t be a thing. If you’re wondering if what Ohtani & the Dodgers are doing here should be contested by the league or other owners - the current collective bargaining agreement says otherwise.

So this isn’t necessarily a loophole - it’s just not something a player has ever agreed to do on this level. Deferred contracts happen by the dozen every offseason, but never at a 97% clip, and certainly never to the tune of $680M.

The Annual Cash Salary

Yes, the Dodgers are really only paying Shohei Ohtani $2M cash per year for the next 10 years. That's the levity of what he's done here with this contract structure. Just how low of a number is that? The league minimum for MLB this season will chime in at $740,000, just $1.26M less than Ohtani's salary. That minimum will rise into the 800s by 2030, closing the gap even more. Most players going through their first trip of arbitration this winter will lock in a salary north of $2M. Hell, even the Oakland Athletics are paying someone more than $2M this year (ok it's only 1, Aledmys Diaz, $8M, and they'll definitely trade him by August).

The Luxury Tax Impact

Thanks to an historic deferral package, Ohtani’s $700M total value contract is downsized to $460,814,760 in terms of its present day value. Which now means that over 10 years, Shohei Ohtani’s luxury tax salary will drop from $70M, to $46,081,476. It’s still the highest in the history of baseball - but now only by $2.75M - instead of $26.7M.

With Ohtani on the books at this figure, the Dodgers’ projected 40-Man CBT Payroll currently stands at $218M, $19M under the original threshold for 2024, and almost $80M below the top “super-tax” threshold of $297M. In other words, the Dodgers can do plenty more here this offseason to continue to build around their star-studded lineup.

Career Earnings Outlook

If we assume this will be Shohei Ohtani’s last contract (he’ll be 38 years old at the time of its expiration), and we of course factor in all the deferral payments, Ohtani will walk away with $742,269,259 in total on-field earnings.

Alex Rodriguez ($455,159,552) currently stands as the highest earning player in MLB history right now, and will remain there until the year 2030, when Mike Trout will surpass him ($480,440,125). Assuming Trout’s career falls off thereafter, Manny Machado should take over the top spot in 2033 ($490,560,896).

Ohtani should eclipse everybody by 2040, when his deferral payments take him well north of $500M - and continue on for 3 more years.

It doesn’t always go this way, but sometimes the eye test matches the statistical analysis of a player. Sometimes you look at the stats, check out the film and it all just makes sense.

That’s De’Aaron Fox of the Sacramento Kings this season.

The numbers show improvement all over the floor for Fox. Watching him play matches those numbers. The seventh-year guard isn’t a drastically different player in terms of look or style. But subtle changes are there, and they’ve made all the difference in Fox going from a good player to an All-Star to an All-NBA level of player over the last few seasons.

2022-23 was the first season that Fox finished the year above 50% from the field (he shot 51.2% overall). Working an expertly-crafted two-man game with Domantas Sabonis, Fox took 42.2% of his shots in and around the paint. That was down a bit from the prior season, when the Kentucky product was at 46.6% of his shots in the same area.

Where did those four percentage points go from 2021-22 to 2022-23? To three-pointers. Fox took 27.6% of his shots from behind the arc last season, up from 22.8% the prior season.

This season, Fox’s shot profile has changed even more dramatically. And it’s made all the difference.

Fox is still in the same range in and around the paint, as he’s at 41.2% of his shots coming from that area. This season though, Fox is at a whopping (for him) 36.2% of his shots coming from behind the arc.

How did he get there? The Kings point guard has limited his mid-range attempts to 17.5% of his shot diet (his lowest mark in the last three seasons). More importantly, Fox has all but eliminated the long two-point shot from his profile. This season, just 0.5% of his shots are long twos. That’s the lowest mark of his career.

Essentially, Fox has turned a few less shots near the basket and a lot fewer mid-range and long-twos into three-pointers. And he’s done so with the best three-point shooting of his career, in terms of volume plus efficiency. Fox is hitting 36.9% of his 8.1 three-point attempts per game. That easily tops his previous high of 5.5 triples attempted per game.

When you watch Fox, he remains arguably the fastest player in the NBA with the ball in his hands. He’s still a blur, but it’s a bit more selective now. The Kings no longer race up and down the floor with a “we’ll figure it out when we get there” attitude. Everything is a lot more calculated and that’s keyed by Fox and Sabonis.

Sabonis is one of the league’s best rebounders. It’s common for a possession to start with Sabonis pulling a board off the glass and outlet passing it to Fox, like one would pluck an apple off the tree and toss it to a companion. What doesn’t happen as much anymore is Fox then turning on the jets and attacking the rim while two or three teammates are still making it over halfcourt.

Those pell-mell drives have been replaced with Fox letting Sabonis get to his spot at the top of the key. From there, the two work opponents into submission with traditional pick-and-roll and dribble-hand-off plays. Press up too much to take those actions away, and the Kings back cut and flare into layups and open jumpers.

Sacramento’s offense isn’t as destructive as last season. There are a lot of reasons for this. They aren’t catching anyone by surprise anymore. Teams know the Kings are good and respect them as such. They aren’t making as many shots and the free throws are down a bit. That’s probably related to the lack of surprise from opponents. Everything is a little harder, but the Kings are still making it work.

And that’s largely because of Fox. We talked about the change in his shooting profile, but he’s also moving the ball well and getting on the glass more than ever. His defense is also more engaged, as he’s harnessed his speed and quickness for more than just beating people on the other end. He’s also attempting more free throws than ever, which signifies he’s gotten the respect from officials, as well as opponents.

If you add it all up, De’Aaron Fox is a star. And he’s going to get paid like one.

Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported that Fox turned down a two-year, $105 million extension from the Kings this past summer. (Depending on the cap projection you use, Fox could have gotten slightly more at just over $107 million.) It was reported that Fox did so in hopes of earning an even bigger extension from Sacramento down the line.

Fox is in Year 3 of the five-year rookie scale extension he signed with Sacramento in November of 2020. (Note: the NBA was working on an adjusted calendar in 2020, due to the COVID-19 impacted seasons) He has two seasons and nearly $72 million (fully guaranteed) left on that extension after this one.

That deal, plus Fox’s improved play, give him all kinds of options on his next deal. Let’s dive in!

The Veteran Extension

Let’s start by saying Fox can’t extend right now. His window to sign any sort of extension closed when this season started. He’ll have to wait until the 2024 offseason to ink any kind of extension.

Fox could sign a Veteran Extension this coming summer that looks like this:

• 2024-25: $34,848,340 (Year 4 of current contract)
• 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
• 2026-27: $51,546,000 (Year 1 of a Veteran Extension)
• 2027-28: $55,669,680 (Year 2 of a Veteran Extension)
• 2028-29: $59,793,360 (Year 3 of a Veteran Extension)
• Total: three years, $167,009,040 in new money via a Veteran Extension

This one is a bit complicated, so hang with us here. Fox is in Year 7 of his career right now. When his current contract ends, he’ll have nine years of service. That qualifies, and caps, him for an extension that starts at 30% of the cap. For now, that projects to be $51,546,000 for the 2026-27 season.

Fox could technically sign an extension for 140% of the final year of his current contract. That would be for $51,935,268 in first-year salary. As that number is above Fox’s currently projected max salary for the 2026-27 season, he’d end up capped at the 30% of the cap amount and $51,546,000.

In reality, how this would likely work is that Fox would extend for 140% amount, and if the cap doesn’t go up enough, his salary would force back down to the 30% of the cap maximum.

In this case, we’re using the projected $51,546,000 maximum amount, plus 8% raises, to determine the Fox’s Veteran Extension number.

The potentially bigger challenges? If Fox extended as early as this summer via the Veteran Extension, he’d only be allowed to add three new years to his contract. Contracts extended via the Veteran Extension can only total five years in length, including years remaining on the current contract. And he’d be capped at the 30% of the cap maximum.

That leaves Fox waiting and playing for more. Let’s take a look what’s potentially at stake.

The Designated Veteran Extension signed in 2024

In order to qualify to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2024, which would allow for Fox to jump to the 35% of the cap maximum salary tier and to add an additional year, he would have to achieve one of the following this season:

• Win MVP
• Win Defensive Player of the Year
• Make an All-NBA Team

As much as Fox has improved, he’s probably not going to win MVP. We can also safely take DPOY of the table too. But an All-NBA nod is very much in play.

If Fox qualified for a Designated Veteran Extension and signed it this summer, that deal would look like this:

• 2024-25: $34,848,340 (Year 4 of current contract)
• 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
• 2026-27: $60,137,000 (Year 1 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• 2027-28: $64,947,960 (Year 2 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• 2028-29: $69,758,920 (Year 3 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• 2029-30: $74,569,880 (Year 4 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• Total: four years, $269,413,760 in new money via a Designated Veteran Extension

In this scenario, Fox could add four years of new money on his deal. The contract would start at the projected 35% of the cap maximum of $60,137,000 and would include 8% raises.

Comparing new money in a Designated Veteran Extension to new money in a Veteran Extension, you can see Fox stands to add more than $100 million in new money.

It’s easy to see why Fox is betting on himself. There’s one more scenario worth exploring though.

The Designated Veteran Extension signed in 2025

Let’s say De’Aaron Fox doesn’t choose the path chosen by fellow Kentucky products Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns, who both signed four-year Designated Veteran Extensions as soon as they were able. Fox could choose to delay signing his extension by a year to add even more money, but it comes at a risk.

For one, Fox would have to be certain he could make All-NBA for the 2024-25 season (or win MVP or DPOY). If he misses out for 2024-25, Fox would no longer be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2025.

But let’s say he either doesn’t qualify for Designated Veteran Extension status this season, or he chooses to wait, but does qualify next season, here’s what Fox would be looking at extending for in the summer of 2025:

• 2025-26: $37,096,620 (Year 5 of current contract)
• 2026-27: $60,137,000 (Year 1 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• 2027-28: $64,947,960 (Year 2 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• 2028-29: $69,758,920 (Year 3 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• 2029-30: $74,569,880 (Year 4 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• 2030-31: $79,380,840 (Year 5 of a Designated Veteran Extension)
• Total: five years, $348,794,600 in new money via a Designated Veteran Extension

Whew boy!

Those numbers are staggering, even more so than the four-year Designated Veteran Extension. Nearly $350 million in total money, and approaching $80 million in the final year of the deal. For perspective, Years 4 and 5 would be worth more than the $70 million per season that Shohei Ohtani just got from the Los Angeles Dodgers in Major League Baseball.

To recap: This is the 35% of the cap maximum salary in 2026-27 with 8% raises, but with the addition of a fifth year.

The Designated Veteran Contract

Let’s say De’Aaron Fox missed out on All-NBA in 2023-24 AND 2024-25. He’ll have one more chance to qualify for big money by making All-NBA in 2025-26 (or, of course, winning MVP or DPOY).

If Fox were to make All-NBA in the final year of his current contract in 2025-26, he’d be eligible for the exact same deal listed out as above. However, this would not be as an extension, but as a new contract. The salaries and years would be the same, starting at 35% of the cap maximum in 2026-27 with 8% raises over a five-year contract.

Summary

De’Aaron Fox has established himself as an All-Star. His play, through the eye test and the stats, supports that. And, just as importantly, the Sacramento Kings are winning.

Sacramento has been aggressive in extending their own players, as seen with Fox’s rookie scale extension. He got the max he could, when some were questioning if that was too much. Clearly, the Kings front office got that one right.

Sacramento was equally as proactive in extending Domantas Sabonis. They used cap space to renegotiate Sabonis’ contract for this season to then give him four years and $186 million in new money.

Expect the Kings to be similarly aggressive with Fox. Clearly, from Chris Haynes’ reporting for Bleacher Report, Sacramento already tried to extend the All-Star guard. This relationship isn’t breaking up anytime soon. Both sides want it to continue. It’s just about timing things out for the right deal for both sides.

Fox was right to decline that extension offer. Yes, more than $100 million for two new seasons is incredible money for a guy who has earned about $115 million in his career to date. But Fox is in position to cash in even more.

If Fox makes All-NBA this season, expect him to ink a four-year Designated Veteran Extension that currently projects at $269.4 million in new salary. That’s the path that both Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns took with the Designated Veteran Extensions. It’s the smart one, as the player both capitalizes on what they’ve earned, while removing the risk of having to do it again the next season.

But it’s that second part that is also key. Let’s say Fox’s play falls off and he doesn’t make All-NBA this season. He’ll still have two more cracks at making it in either 2024-25 or 2025-26. And if he does it then, he’ll be able to sign for five years on his next deal, instead of being capped at four years.

It’s also fair to speculate if either the four- or five-year option, should Fox qualify, will come with a player option on the final season. Fox will be 28 years old, and in the frontend of his prime, when his current contract extends. His next deal, no matter what fashion it comes in, will see him wrap it up in his early-30s. An option on the final season, could be in play. Towns got one in his deal, while Booker didn’t. Jaylen Brown didn’t get one in his five-year Designated Veteran Extension, but Bradley Beal did (along with a trade bonus and the coveted and infamous no-trade clause!) in his recent max deal.

It’s looking likely that a player option may be the only source of real negotiation for De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings. Everything points to Fox making the All-NBA leap over the next year or two. At that point, a “supermax” deal is coming. It’s just a matter of when, not if.

The 2024 Yankees took a page out of their own history books last night when they acquired one of the biggest fish in the ocean, pulling in OF Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres.

The long rumored move became finalized as a 7 player swap, with New York also acquiring defensive specialized outfielder Trent Grisham (CF) as well. The Yankees give up four pitchers and a catcher in return, sacrificing a good chunk of their youth to secure one of the games’ premier left handed power bats.

The Juan Soto Piece

Barely 25-year-old Juan Soto has now been traded twice in the past 16 months. He left Washington as they ripped off their band-aid post a 2019 World Series Championship, and now appears to be a casualty of major cost cutting beginning in San Diego. The Padres moving on from Soto signals a belief that they didn’t have the horsepower or capital to keep him around for the long term. Soto has long been rumored to approach a $500M contract when free agency comes around, and now the Yankees will get a crack at keeping him off of the open market.

2024 Compensation
While many outlets are projecting that Juan Soto will earn more than $30M in 2024, his final season of arbitration, our math downgrades him slightly to around $27M. Logic says that the Yankees won’t screw around too much here, wanting to immediately start this relationship off on a positive note. Shohei Ohtani’s $30M salary to avoid arbitration with the Angels last year is the number to look at, and New York likely offers him slightly above that to avoid a hearing next spring.

Long Term Extension
Generally, when Scott Boras’ clients get this close to free agency, extension conversations are all but halted. But Soto (and Boras) have to see how nice of a fit this organization, and respective ballpark, should be for the foreseeable future.

Mathematically speaking, Juan Soto projects to a 12 year, $408M contract in our system, or a flat $34M per year. This coincides with our $27M projection for his arbitration 4 salary. If we increase that value to $31M as noted above, an adjusted extension projection would come in at 12 years, $468M, or $39M per year. New teammate Aaron Judge’s $40M per year is the current benchmark for position player AAVs. Soto is 5 ½ years younger than Judge when he took his free agency tour. That alone is worth a few extra million more per year. So again, logic still sees Soto approaching $500M, at somewhere around $41M-$42M per year for 12-13 years in total.

Will that happen immediately? Will the Yankees wanna give it a minute to see exactly what kind of person/player Soto is? Will Soto/Boras still opt to wait the year out, take the free agency tour, and generate a bidding war?

Plenty still to see here.

The Padres Return

The Padres clearly had a mission in mind when they went looking for a trade haul for Soto: Replenish the pitching pool they emptied when they acquired Soto 16 months ago. For the most part, they’ve done an excellent job here, though none of the newly acquired arms currently project to be a top of the rotation starter (yet). Thorpe is the only name of the bunch that won’t begin on the 40-man roster, though he projects to be there by 2025.

RHP Drew Thorpe

2022 2nd Rd (61st); signed for exact slot - $1,187,600

• Yankees #5 prospect; 2023 minor league player of the year
• Projects as a middle of the rotation starter with more upside if he can add velocity; good secondaries + strong command

RHP Michael King

Reliever turned starter (9 GS in 2023)

• Large range of outcomes but likely enters season as SP3 behind Yu Darvish & Joe Musgrove.
• Projects to a $3.1M salary in 2024, his 2nd of 3 arbitration years, 2026 free agent.

RHP Jhony Brito

Middle Reliever with swingman starter potential

• Signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015 for $35,000
• Started 13 games for the Yankees in 2023, his first MLB season.
• Enters 2024 with .113 service time, allowing for 5 more years of team control

RHP Randy Vasquez

Projects to make the Padres 2024 starting rotation for now

• Signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018 for $10,000
• Started 5 games for the Yankees in 2023, his first MLB season
• Enters 2024 with .041 service time, allowing for 5 more years of team control

C Kyle Higashioka

Should compete for the everyday catching role with Luis Campusano

• Projects to make $2.2M in his final year of arbitration; 2025 UFA
• Replaces Gary Sanchez: Offensive downgrade, Defensive upgrade

Payroll Updates

In adding Soto & Grisham, the Yankees have brought over an estimated $35M of cash/tax payroll for the 2024 season. They now carry around $280M in tax salary, against a $237M league threshold. Assuming they continue to add a few pieces without any notable subtractions, this is setting up to be a $300M+ franchise for the upcoming season.

The Padres relinquished that $35M of salary from Soto/Grisham, bringing back an estimated $7M for 4 players (King, Brito, Vasquez, Higashioka). Higashioka is the only player here without multi-year control. San Diego now carries a $204M estimated tax payroll with 33 players on their 40-man roster. There’s room to add in small chunks here if the plan is to stay competitive but also stay under the $237M threshold.


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MLB Trade Tracker
2024 Free Agency

NBA Expansion is coming. On Tuesday, December 5 in an interview with SiriusXM NBA Radio, NBA commissioner Adam Silver all but confirmed the NBA will expand. Silver didn’t make any commitments, but he again referenced Las Vegas and Seattle as potential cities and reaffirmed a post-new media rights deal timeline.

In Part 1 of our NBA Expansion series we talked how NBA expansion works, including potential timelines and how the bid process will work.

Now, we’ll cover the rules for an Expansion Draft and how Protected Player Lists actually work. The goal here is to educate anyone who is inclined to write about expansion or to undertake a mock expansion draft. This will hopefully serve as a guide to making those exercises as accurate as possible, while also providing some history behind previous Expansion Drafts.

(Note: This is assuming that the NBA follows the same rules that they have for previous expansion drafts. There is no indication that the league will change any of the rules or processes ahead of a new round of expansion.)

Timing of an Expansion Draft

Following past practices, the NBA will approve the addition of Expansion Teams a year or more ahead of them beginning play. Once teams are approved, the league will set a date for the Expansion Draft. This will take place in advance of that year’s NBA Draft.

In an ideal world, the NBA would likely want to schedule an Expansion Draft to take place in between the end of that year’s NBA Finals and the NBA Draft. This will allow for the Expansion Draft to take place without distracting from the Finals, but in advance of the Draft. With news that the league is considering a two-night NBA Draft, timing of each event can be sequenced to allow for maximum prep time.

(In 2004, the Expansion Draft was scheduled to be held on June 22, with a one-day pushback to June 23 if the 2004 NBA Finals went to a seventh game. That year’s NBA Draft was held on June 24. As the 2004 NBA Finals did not go to a seventh game, the Expansion Draft was held on June 22, with the NBA Draft on June 24.)

NBA teams would be given a deadline to submit Protected Player Lists in advance of the Expansion Draft, likely somewhere in the range of a week ahead of the Expansion Draft. To the best of our exhaustive research and knowledge, this information, both the deadlines and the lists themselves, have not been made public. Some partial lists exist, but the NBA has never made them publicly available.

Protected Player Lists

Each of the NBA’s existing 30 teams will be allowed to protect players ahead of an expansion draft. Teams are allowed to protect players who fit one of the following categories:

• Players under contract

• Players who are restricted free agents (there is a quirk to this that we will cover next)

• Players who have a player or team option for the following season

• Any player who is a pending unrestricted free agent cannot be protected

There are some more rules related to protecting players:

• Each team can protect up to eight players (but can choose to protect less)

• Each team must expose at least one player (but can choose to expose more) that can’t become an unrestricted free agent

• If a restricted free agent is drafted, they automatically become an unrestricted free agent (if selected, the former restricted free agent can not re-sign with their original team)

• Player status is as of the day of the draft (this pertains to players with player or team options)

Expansion Draft Order

As for the draft process itself, it’s fairly simply. In past expansions that featured more than one team, the NBA held a coin flip between the two teams. The winning team was given the option to select either the higher pick in that year’s NBA Draft or the higher selection in the Expansion Draft.

Note: Expansion teams are often saddled with conditions on how high they can select in a draft. Here are some examples:

• 2004: The Charlotte Bobcats were given the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft

• 1995: The Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies were given the sixth and seventh overall picks and were restricted from picking first overall for their first four years in the NBA

• 1989: The Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic were given the 10th and 11th overall picks

• 1988: The Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat were given the eighth and ninth overall picks

In 1995, when the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies joined the league, the Grizzlies won the coin flip. They chose to have the higher pick in the 1995 NBA Draft, which gave Toronto the first pick in the 1995 Expansion Draft.

In 1989, when the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic joined the NBA, the Magic won the coin flip. They chose to have the first pick in the 1989 Expansion Draft. That gave the Timberwolves the higher pick in the 1989 NBA Draft.

In the prior year in 1988, when the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat joined the NBA, the Hornets won the coin toss and selected to have the higher pick in the 1988 NBA Draft. That gave the Miami Heat the first pick in the 1988 Expansion Draft.

The Expansion Draft

Once the draft order is set, the teams are set for the draft. This is done in a back-and-forth order, not in a snake draft format. Here are some of the rules for the Expansion Draft:

• Each NBA team can only lose one player from their unprotected list. Once a player has been selected, the remaining players from that team are removed from eligibility to be selected.

• If a team is over the cap and has a player selected, they receive a Traded Player Exception (TPE) for the exact value of that team’s salary. (Note: This does not apply to restricted free agents. It must be a player who is under contract for the over-the-cap team to receive a TPE.)

• The teams then alternate selections until one player has been selected from each team. In the case of the Charlotte Bobcats in the 2004 Expansion Draft, they selected 19 players and the draft was then ended. Charlotte could have selected between 14 and 29 players, but chose to stop at 19 selections.

• Morbid as it may be, the NBA reserves the right to conduct a similar process in what they call a “restocking draft”. This process would be undertaken should a team suffer a tragedy that permanently prevents five or more players from being able to play (death, dismemberment or permanent disability).

You might be wondering what happens if a team has more than eight players that they want to keep. If that is the case, the existing team can work a deal with one, or both, of the expansion teams to select or not select certain players.

How this has worked in the past is the team has made a trade with one of the Expansion Teams to select a certain player, or to not select certain players. Here’s a brief example of pre-Expansion Draft trades that teams have made with this in mind:

• 2004: The Bobcats acquired the second overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft from the LA Clippers in exchange for the fourth overall pick and the 33rd overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. As part of the deal, the Bobcats agreed to select Predrag Drobnjak in the draft. (The Bobcats drafted Emeka Okafor and the Clippers selected Shaun Livingston and Lionel Chalmers.)

• 2004: The Bobcats agreed to select Jahidi White from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for a future first-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 2005 and Charlotte drafted Sean May.)

• 1995: The Grizzlies agreed to select Rodney Dent from the Orlando Magic in exchange for a future second-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 1996 and Vancouver drafted Randy Livingston.)

In addition, teams will sometimes make selections during the Expansion Draft with future trades in mind. The Charlotte Bobcats made two such select-and-trade deals in 2004:

• The Bobcats selected Zaza Pachulia from the Orlando Magic. Pachulia was then traded to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for the 45th overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft. (Charlotte drafted Bernard Robinson.)

• The Bobcats selected Sasha Pavlovic from the Utah Jazz. Pavlovic was then traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for a future first-round pick. (That pick conveyed in 2007 and Charlotte drafted Jared Dudley.)

On the flip side, existing teams will often leave players unprotected in an Expansion Draft that are have an undesirable contract. A team could attempt to incentivize an Expansion Team to select that player by offering a draft pick or another player in a trade. If that happens, the existing team removes the salary from their books and, if over the cap, creates a TPE for the amount of the selected player’s salary.

Post-Expansion Draft

Once the Expansion Draft is complete, the Expansion Teams more or less run like every other NBA team. Expansion Teams do work under a reduced salary cap (as well as a salary floor that is 90% of the Expansion Team’s cap) for their first two years of existence. In Year 1, Expansion Teams are limited to 66.6% of the league-wide salary cap. In Year 2, that goes up to 80% of the league-wide salary cap. In Year 3, everything normalizes, and Expansion Teams are treated the same as the rest of the league.

(Note: The above is a change from the previous of a Year 1 cap of 80% of the league-wide salary cap and a Year 2 cap of 90% of the league-wide salary cap for Expansion Teams.)

As noted above, if a team selects a restricted free agent, that player becomes an unrestricted free agent. That player cannot re-sign with the team they were with pre-Expansion Draft. The Expansion Team would have their unrestricted free agent rights (Bird, Early Bird or Non-Bird) as appropriate, and a corresponding cap hold.

If a team selects a player with a player or team option, that player or team can still choose for the player to become a free agent by not exercising their option. The Expansion Team would then have their unrestricted free agent rights (Bird, Early Bird or Non-Bird) as appropriate, and a corresponding cap hold.

If an Expansion Team waives a player they selected in the Expansion Draft prior to the beginning of the season, that player’s salary is removed from their cap sheet. The player is still paid, and the salary still counts towards the team’s salary floor, but the team no longer has a cap hit for the waived player.

What’s Next

Now that we’ve covered the timeline and process for expansion, as well as the rules for an Expansion Draft, we’ll move into some of the strategy components in future articles in the series.

In the next installment, we’ll cover what the cap sheet for an Expansion Team would look like in Year 1 and Year 2. We’ll do a couple of mock examples to explain how an Expansion Team might handle their cap in Year 1 and Year 2. We’ll do these examples as if Expansion was happening this coming year, ahead of the 2024-25 season. That way, we can use real world examples as far as players and salaries go.

After that, we’re going to dive deep into the history and strategy of the past couple of rounds of expansion. We’ll cover protected lists (to the extent we are able, as this information is not publicly available) and the Expansion Draft strategies themselves. We’ll look at this both for the Expansion Teams, as well as the existing teams.

Then we’ll look at the post-Expansion Draft work that teams did and what their inaugural rosters looked like. From there, we’ll examine how long it took Expansion Teams to become competitive: How long before the playoffs are a reality? How long before the team won a playoff series? And when did they become a real contender?

Then, we’ll start the Mock Expansion Draft process. We’ll put together some Mock Protected Player Lists (based off current rosters) and the strategy behind them. And then we’ll run a Mock Expansion Draft, and explain the strategy that we took for each team involved. We’ll do several versions of this, right up until we have Expansion for real!

As we head down the home stretch of the 2023 regular season, one of the more polarizing stories to watch might be the finish of the Green Bay Packers, and more notably, of Jordan Love.

Love began the year with two outstanding performances, throwing for 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 118 Passer Rating. He backed that up however with 5 weeks averaging a 66 rating, with 8 picks against 5 TD passes.

But November and early December have been different stories. Despite notable injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Love appears to be settling into the offensive plan, and the speed of the NFL game.

The Packers have now won 4 out of their last 5 games, including a very strong victory against Kansas City this past Sunday night, putting their chances to make the playoffs at or around 70%. This leads us back to his newly restructured contract, which came loaded with $9M worth of salary escalators for 2024, based on a variety of mechanisms. We’ll take a snapshot look at each of these thresholds as we near the finish line.

RELATED:
Jordan Love's 2 year, $15.8M contract breakdown

Jordan Love’s $9M of Incentives 

Pro Bowl Selection: $1M

3 QBs are selected per conference. At this point it seems unlikely that Love will be one of the Top 3 NFC QBs honored (Prescott, Hurts, Goff, Purdy likely ahead of him). But it’s inconceivable.

65% Offensive Regular Season Snaps: $500,000

At the time of this piece, Love has taken over 99% of the Packers’ snaps this season. Barring injury, this escalator should be a lock.

Team Success Escalators

Love will add an extra $1M to his 2024 salary if one of three things occurs

• 10 Regular Season Wins (65% snaps) OR

• Playoff Berth (65% snaps) OR

• Top 10 Passers Rating & Top 10 in TD Passes (65% Snaps)

The Packers are 6-6 headed into Week 14, with 5 games remaining. They currently hold a 70% chance to make the playoffs. Love is currently 16th in Passer Rating, and 6th in TD Passes. It seems highly likely that one of these triggers will vest.

Playoff Escalators

The Packers currently hold a 70% chance to make the playoffs, and Love has currently taken over 99% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps this season. 

• 65% Regular Season Snaps + Playoff Berth: $500,000

• 1 Playoff Win (65% Snaps): $500,000

• Conference Title Win (65% Snaps): $1M

• Super Bowl Win (65% Snaps): $1M

Statistical Escalators

Love is currently 16th in Passer Rating, 28th in Completion %, 6th in TD Passes, & 12th in Passing Yards. 

• 65% Snaps & Top 10 Passer Rating: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 10 Completion %: $500,000

• Top 10 Touchdown Passes: $500,000

• Top 10 Passing Yards: $500,000

More Statistical Escalators

Love can earn a maximum of $1.5M from this group (or 3 out of 4). He’s currently 16th in Passer Rating, 28th in Completion %, 6th in TD Passes, & 12th in Passing Yards, on track to max out this escalator.

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passer Rating: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Completion %: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passing Yards: $500,000

• 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passing TDs: $500,000

Assessing Love’s 2024 Compensation

As it currently stands, Jordan Love is guaranteed a $5.5M base salary in 2024, with a $500,000 workout bonus also likely to be earned. His base (P5) salary will increase with any incentive that is met from 2023, up to $9M new, or $15.5M in total.

Running through the above list, Love is currently on pace to earn $2.5M based on playing time and production alone. If the Packers make the playoffs, that number immediately jumps up to $4M, and will increase from there based on playoff wins.

The only other metrics to monitor closely appear to be Passing Yards (currently 12th, a Top 10 would secure him $500,000 more), and a Pro Bowl Selection ($1M).

With a 70% chance to make the playoffs, we’ll assume that Love is on pace for at least $4M escalator right now, increasing his 2024 compensation up to $10M.

So here’s the 100 million dollar question? If Jordan Love takes the Packers to the playoffs in his first full season, after restructuring his rookie deal to make life easier for Green Bay in the interim, should he be comfortable playing out this contract through 2024 - or will it immediately become time to sit down and negotiate a long-term, financially appropriate extension?

The Jimmy Garoppolo Conversation

One of the better comparisons to be made here might be Jimmy Garoppolo, who was traded from New England to San Francisco at the 2017 deadline, started 5 games for the Niners to finish off the season, then signed a 5 year, $137.5M extension prior to hitting free agent the following February. Garoppolo's $27.5M per year average was actually the largest in all of football at the time of the extension, and the contract was heavily front-loaded to benefit the Niners, who were in a funky financial window at the time. Looking at it differently, the $27.5M average salary represented 15.5% of the NFL Salary Cap that season. If we project that out to 2024, with a projected $240M league cap, that 15.5% metric would bring forth a $38M average salary.

In other words, if the Packers want to get comfortable with Jordan Love as their QB for a few seasons, Daniel Jones' 4 year, $160M contract with the Giants appears to be the starting point this offseason. Green Bay may very well opt to slow play this another year to further assess their QB1, rebuild a few important positions on the roster, and utilize a franchise tag in 2025 as needed.

Questions surrounding Von Miller’s current & future status with the Buffalo Bills have ramped up since news broke of his alleged off-field legal issues that surfaced during the Bills Week 13 Bye Week.

Assuming nothing, here are a few notable notes surrounding Miller’s contract & where things could be headed in the coming weeks.

Remaining Contract

Miller has $500,000 of 2023 compensation left to be paid out. $75,000 of that is tied to per-game-active bonuses, so if Miller misses games due to injury or if by chance he’s placed on an exempt list, he’ll forfeit $15,000 per week missed.

After 2023, the contract holds 4 years, $80M remaining, though only $10.71M of that is fully guaranteed at this time. If Miller is on the active roster next March, the remaining $6.435M of his 2024 salary will become fully guaranteed.

After 2024, none of Miller’s compensation contains an early vesting guarantee.

Buffalo’s Ability to Get Out of this Contract

If this situation escalates to a point that the Bills decide to move on, there are a few scenarios to explore.

Buffalo doesn’t wait around, releasing Miller immediately (extremely unlikely)
The Bills would need to pay Miller the rest of his 2023 salary, & $10.71M of his 2024 salary - immediately, or $11.1M. Buffalo would take on an $18.6M dead cap hit in 2023, & a $21.8M dead cap hit in 2024. The Bills don’t have the cap space to make this move right now.

The Bills release Miller next March before any NFL Punishment is Handed Down
Without any punishment from the league, things don’t change a whole lot with this contract in the offseason. The thinking here would be that Buffalo is simply trying to get out of this contract before the remaining $6.435M of 2024 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Without a Post June 1st Designation, Buffalo would take on a $32.5M dead cap hit (including $10.71M cash), which would represent an $8.6M cap loss for 2024.

A Post June 1st Designation would mean $17.084M of 2024 dead cap ($10.71M cash), & another $15.4M of 2025 dead cap. This would free up $6.8M of cap space for the Bills next year, but not until June 2nd.

Von Miller is Suspended by the NFL
The NFL usually doesn’t act on a situation like this until the legal process has been carried out. Long story short here though, if the NFL suspends Miller for violating the Personal Conduct policy, any future salary guarantee on his contract will void. For now, that would mean the $10.71M of 2024 salary, but any resolution or judgment with this issue isn’t likely to be passed down by March, so for practical purposes, we’re talking about Miller’s full $17,145,000 2024 salary here.

If Miller is suspended at any point in time before Week 1 of the 2024 season, the Bills will be able to bypass the $17.145M salary, instead taking on $21.79M of dead cap to release him ($6.3M in 2024, $15.4M in 2025 if Post June 1st).

If Miller is suspended but the Bills decide to keep him for the 2024 season, he stands to forfeit $967,500 per Week missed (base salary & per game active roster bonus).

A Cap Conundrum for Buffalo

Here’s an item that probably isn’t getting too much attention just yet - but it’s important for the Bills. Brandon Beane designed Miller’s contract to function as a signing bonus payment for Year 1, a roster bonus payment for Year 2, and a high base salary payment for Year 3. The Bills converted all of his 2023 roster bonus into signing bonus last March to free up over $10.6M of cap space for them to operate with.

The plan (assumedly) for 2024 was very similar. Buffalo would be able to convert nearly $16M of Miller’s base salary into signing bonus, freeing up $12.74M of cap space for the 2024 offseason. However, with a suspension possibly looming here, and a subsequent void of Miller’s salary guarantee attached to it, Brandon Beane will almost certainly NOT convert any of Miller’s compensation into signing bonus this March, meaning they will be forced to carry his $23.8M cap hit until further notice.

Could the Bills pay look to recoup signing bonus if Miller is suspended? This is an easier said than done proposition unfortunately, often dragged out into a long litigation process. The Bills are much better off playing the waiting game here, and leaving themselves an opportunity to forego the 2024 salary payment.

What About the Commissioner’s Exempt List?

Oftentimes when a player is dealing with an off-field incident that leaves him (and his respective team) in limbo, the NFL will step in and place the player on the Commissioner’s Exempt List.

However, placing a player on this list does not impact his ability to earn salary, nor does it reduce his salary cap figure. In essence, the player has been placed on “paid leave”, which opens a roster spot for a team, but offers little to no other benefit. 

Our NFL Offseason Series continues with a look at the pending Wide Receiver market set to unfold next March, highlighted by the likes of Mike Evans (TB), Tee Higgins (CIN) & Michael Pittman Jr. (IND). Dive into our look at 10 receivers eyeing big paydays either from their current repsective teams, or on the open market in the coming months, plus a few notable names trending toward the Roster Bubble in 2024, and couple of situations to be monitored closely in the coming weeks.

RELATED:
2024 Free Agent Wide Receivers
Top 2024 Wide Receiver Cap Hits

Pending Free Agents

Mike Evans (Buccaneers, 30)

Market Value: $23.5M (4 years, $94M)

He just keeps doing it. Evans is on pace for his record-setting 10th straight 1,000 yard season in Tampa, who failed to reach an extension with their WR1 before the start of the 2023 season. He projects to a 4 year, $94M contract in our system as he heads toward free agency for the first time.

Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts, 26)

Market Value: $22.5M (4 years, $90M)

After a slow start to his career, Pittman has really come on strong as he approaches free agency for the first time - despite a world of inconsistency at the QB position in Indy. With Anthony Richardson the short term answer there, and Jonathan Taylor locked up for at least 2 more seasons, keeping Pittman in the fold seems a no-brainer for this franchise. It might take an overpay to do so however (upwards of $25M per year).

Tee Higgins (Bengals, 25)

Market Value: $16.5M (4 years, $66M)

A hamstring injury has dampened Higgins’ stock heading toward free agency, but there’s still a very real world where he’s identified as the best available pass catcher on the open market next March. With Joe Burrow under contract, and Ja'Marr Chase extension eligible this winter, can the Bengals find a way to fit it all in? 

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars, 28)

Market Value: $17M (4 years, $68M)

Ridley hasn’t consistently been able to stand out as a top weapon in Jacksonville, which follows suit to his time in Atlanta (behind future HOF Julio Jones). The good news? He’s finding the end zone, his Yards/Reception (14.1) are back near the top of the league, and he’s in an offense that can afford to keep him - and will continue to target him relentlessly. Ridley’s production aligns well with teammate Christian Kirk, whose $18M per year represented 8.6% of the 2022 salary cap. If we project this math out to 2024, Ridley could be seeking a $21M per year deal.

Marquise Brown (Cardinals, 26)

Market Value: $14.8M (4 years, $59.5M)

Brown hasn’t risen to WR1 levels despite a few opportunities to do so, but he’s been consistently productive as a player living a tier or so below that. There’s plenty of money to be had for living in that world. Will Arizona bring back Brown and pair him with the ultra dangerous Marvin Harrison Jr. next May? Kyler Murray probably votes yes.

Gabriel Davis (Bills, 24)

Market Value: $13.5M (4 years, $54M)

The advanced metrics have never been on his side, and the Bills Mafia has been trying to replace him from their couches for the better part of two seasons now, but Davis has shown plenty of flashes that he can be a capable 2nd or 3rd option in a top passing offense. He’s a $13.5M player in our system in his current role, but is there a world where he’s valued more with a change of scenery? Age is very much on his side for that here.

Noah Brown (Texans, 27)

Market Value: $5.6M (3 years, $16.8M)

The sample size this year is small (5 out of 12 weeks at the time of this piece), but all signs point to a considerable breakout from the former 7th round pick out of Dallas. Houston brought in Brown on a 1 year, $2.6M tender this March, but will likely need to triple that price to keep him around longer.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals, 29)

Market Value: $8.7M (3 years, $26M)

The 2016 2nd rounder is completing his 8th season in Cincinnati, proving to be as valuable as ever filling in for the injured Tee Higgins. With Joe Burrow now under contract, Ja’Mar Chase’s extension looming and Higgins/Boyd both slated for free agency this March - something is going to have to give. He’s an $8M-$9M player in our system, but Adam Thielen’s $14M guarantee should very much be in play here.

Odell Beckham, Jr. (Ravens, 31)

Market Value: $12M (1 year, $12M)

Beckham hasn’t been a huge part of the Baltimore offense from a numbers standpoint, but when asked to do a job - he’s more than responded. The 15.1 yards per catch is Top 20 in the league, but more importantly, the 30-something receiver can still create separation against top defenses. All of this added up is a good recipe for solid pay on the open market, though incentives and per game bonuses are likely to be a big part of any deal he signs from here out.

Curtis Samuel (Commanders, 27)

Market Value: $11.5M (3 years, $34.5M)

Samuel signed a 3 year, $34.5M free agent contract with Washington back in 2021. 2 ½ seasons later that’s exactly what the math says he could be eyeing next march on the open market. Early injuries really hampered his first impression in Washington, but the shifty, versatile receiver has really held up his end of the contract since then. 

Notable Bubble Potentials

Mike Williams (Chargers, 29)

Williams suffered a Torn ACL in Week 3, finishing his 2023 campaign and putting his contract on notice. The Chargers can free up $20M of cap space by moving on before March 15th.

Michael Gallup (Cowboys, 27)

Gallup’s role has been reduced immensely in 2023, the final year of his upfront guarantees. While a $9.5M cash salary/$13.85M cap hit in 2024 isn’t too daunting, the Cowboys are going to need to trim off some fat to hit big deals for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and an offensive lineman or two. This is a tradable contract if he’s healthy next March.

Hunter Renfrow (Raiders, 27)

Renfrow’s cash and cap hits stay relatively neutral next year ($11.8M/$13.7M respectively), but he’s only been targeted 22 times in 12 games at the time of this piece. It seems the organization has already begun to write him off.

Allen Robinson (Steelers, 30)

Pittsburgh swapped 7th round picks to take a flier on Robinson this season, but he’s only been targeted 23 times at the time of this piece. It’s tough to imagine the franchise keeping him at a $10M cash, $12M cap hit next season.

Also Worth Mentioning

Davante Adams (Raiders, 30)

If the Raiders have to reset their coaching staff again after 2023, the core players are bound to get restless. Adams has already been linked to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets for 2024, so let’s at least play out that scenario financially. A Pre June 1st trade means $16.76M of cap loss for Las Vegas. In most cases, it would be recommended that they wait until June 1st, split up the $31.5M of dead cap across two years, and take the $23M+ of savings next season. But if the plan is to disengage, the smarter move may be to take as much dead weight on as possible next season, making it a purge year for the organization.

Stefon Diggs (Bills, 30)

There’s no world where Brandon Beane and the Bills want to remove Diggs from their roster anytime soon - but he’s one of the most competitive, outspoken players in the game. If the Bills’ 2023 campaign continues to nosedive, it wouldn’t be an ounce of surprise to learn that Diggs has requested a trade out of Buffalo at some point this offseason. With $31M dead cap against a $27.8M 2024 cap hit, it wouldn’t behoove the Bills to make any such move until after June 1st ($19M of savings at that point), so don’t expect this type of transaction to dominate the March wire - if at all.

Keenan Allen (Chargers, 31)

Allen is still producing at a ridiculous level, but he’ll be entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn $23.1M cash against a league-high $34.7M cap hit. With so many question marks surrounding this Chargers’ franchise heading into the offseason, will an extension for the near 32-year-old be in the cards? If not, trade talks could pick up steam sooner rather than later.