Any given NFL offseason comes with plenty of roster moves, & with most come dead cap hits. We've located the top dead cap hit at each position, formulating the 2021 All-Dead Cap Roster.

Mike Ginnitti & Scott Allen discuss what a rookie wage scale, a shortened, contract-driven draft, & an early extension-eligibility trigger could do for the current state of MLB. 

A look at where the projected starting quarterbacks for the 2021 season fall in terms of their current contract status, from "Locked in" to "On their way" to "Who Knows?"

Burning a Hole in Their Pockets

Lamar Jackson, BAL
Recent deals for Dak, Deshaun, & now Josh have all positively impacted Lamar Jackson’s valuation, which now sits at a healthy $44.5M. He projects to a 6 year, $267M extension.

Baker Mayfield, CLE
According to our algorithm, Baker qualifies more inline with Carson Wentz & Jared Goff than he does Deshaun Watson/Josh Allen. For now that means a valuation just north of $35M. Will the Browns overpay a year early, anticipating another big season out of he and the team, or will the wait continue into 2022.

On Their Way to a Pay Day

Kyler Murray, ARZ
The #1 overall in 2019 is entering year #3, meaning he’ll be extension eligible after the season. Arizona has added significant pieces on both side of the ball over the past year, putting him in a great position to take a big step forward in 2021. He’s off to a good start holding a $39M valuation, projecting toward a 6 year, $234M extension.

Derek Carr, LV
The Raiders have had plenty of time to move on from Carr over the past few seasons, but he’s played himself out of that thought process, and into serious extension consideration. Yes, the potential for Rodgers or Wilson could still exist in 2022, but another above average year from Carr, and a little more winning from the Raiders, should seal another contract for the two sides in the coming months. Now 30, Carr should be inline for a cap-adjusted version of Ryan Tannehill’s recent deal with the Titans.

Matthew Stafford, LAR
There aren’t many experts out there who don’t see the Matt Stafford/Rams marriage working immediately. If things go as planned, Les Snead will be ripping up the final year of Stafford’s contract and locking him in for the long-term. Mahomes’ $45M will be in jeopardy with this one.

Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill, NO
he closer we get to Week 1, the more questions that seem to be coming out from the Saints. Regardless, both of these players are on 1-year deals, so if either grab the reigns and produce, there will be dollar signs in their future (potentially a franchise tag).

Russell Wilson, SEA
Unsurprisingly, Wilson went nowhere this offseason, though there’s still plenty of contractual turmoil in Seahawksland. That attention could turn to the QB1 next March when the 32 year old will have two years left on his contract, none of it guaranteed. A nice extension to bring Russ back up to the current market without breaking the bank? Not so fast. Wilson holds a $46.4M valuation in our system currently.

Needs a Big Year

Sam Darnold, CAR
There are plenty who believe a little less Jets and a little more anywhere else will be the recipe to get Darnold’s career off the ground and running. With his $19M option for 2022 already locked in, a strong 2021 campaign could push the Panthers to think a little more long term. For now, it remains highly unlikely.

Drew Lock, DEN
With Teddy Bridgewater now in the mix, and Aaron Rodgers looming in 2022, Lock may not even find the field in his third year, let alone be eyeing an extension.

Daniel Jones, NYG
Jones is well behind the pack of recently signed QBs in terms of all major statistical production, but a year of winning in NY can change that narrative pretty quickly. For now, he’s on a Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky path.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Kind of weird to put a franchise legend in this category, but Ben’s spot on the Steelers was largely in question heading into 2021, and remains that way despite a 1 year, $14M restructured contract to stick around. A big year could mean another small payday and a continuation of this relationship.

Playing for His Next Team?

Matt Ryan, ATL
This isn’t a sure thing. Ryan’s current contractual mess secured his spot in 2021, but Atlanta did a lot of roster management on the offensive side of the ball that could really benefit his ability to produce, and win this season. Ryan is 36, so there likely aren’t massive dollar signs in his future, but a move to a new team, and a slight restructure could very well be in the cards come 2022.

Aaron Rodgers, GB
I don’t think an explanation is necessary here, but it’s almost certain that Rodgers is one more and done with the Packers. A trade out of town will mean a new contract, and based on what we’ve seen from Rodgers the past few times, there won’t be any discounts involved. It’s tough to imagine a 37 year old garnering $50M per year, but I’m not counting it out.

Kirk Cousins, MIN
Cousins could have fit in a lot of these tiers, but I’ll play a little crystal ball here and say that Kirk could be on the outside looking in after 2021. His $35M salary for 2022 is fully guaranteed, so releasing him won’t be an option, but finding a trade partner could be very much in play.

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
All signs point to Jimmy G getting the Week 1 start and then some, so it appears his $25M+ of compensation will lock in shortly. He’ll likely be a trade deadline candidate, and once past that point, the leader of the 2022 roster bubble list. SF can free up $25.6M of cap in 2022 by moving on in any fashion.

Good For Now

Josh Allen, BUF
The latest mega-extension comes out of Buffalo, who locked in Allen to $284M over the next 8 years, with $164M over the next 5 extremely likely. Allen’s job now is to repay the franchise with its first ever Super Bowl.

Dak Prescott, DAL
Well it certainly wasn’t the traditional route, but the Cowboys and Dak finally got to a multi-year extension, and it’s a doozy for Prescott, who gets $126M fully guaranteed over the next 3 seasons. A healthy Dallas is a legit contender for the NFC East in 2021.

Deshaun Watson, HOU
Contractually speaking only, Watson’s extension has barely kicked in. If he’s traded after the 2021 season, he’ll still have 4 years, $136M left on the contract, two years fully guaranteed. Obviously we know less about his future than anyone here though. Elsewhere in Houston, likely Week 1 starter Tyrod Taylor is on a 1 yr, $5.5M contract and has an outside chance of winning the gig for a few years should Watson be traded away.

Patrick Mahomes, KC
Mahomes has 11 years, $466M remaining on his contract, and almost every salary/bonus guarantees at least 1 year early. He’s a Chief until he decides he doesn’t want to be.

Tom Brady, TB
A restructure + void years put $51M+ of cash in Brady’s hands over the next two seasons, with cap hits of just $10.5M, & $17M respectively. There shouldn’t be a need for another restructure after 2021, even if he wins the whole thing again.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN
Tannehill is fully guaranteed through the 2022 season now, so he’ll have time to get acclimated with Julio Jones and attempt to bring the Titans back into AFC contention. There’s plenty of cap to be saved in 2023 if things don’t go as planned.

Un-Extendable

Joe Burrow, CIN
After a first year lost to injury, year two will likely be about slowly rebuilding Burrow both physically and mentally with a young roster that could really be something in a year or two. This situation seems a year away from being something to really watch out for - perfect timing for his next payday.

Trevor Lawrence, JAC
The #1 overall pick should get the keys to the team in Week 1, but that has yet to be confirmed. The Jags have done a nice job of readying their ship for this draft selection, so Lawrence’s change to succeed out of the gate should be strong. We could be 3 years away from another historic QB extension in his regard.

Justin Herbert, LAC
Herbert might be the #1 QB to watch this season, as he showed signs of legitimate elite stuff over the course of 2020. The Chargers have two more years of control before he becomes extension eligible, so the window to add expensive pieces is now.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
Tua needs a big year, not only for the obvious reasons, but notably because the Deshaun Watson rumors don’t appear to be going away. He’s still two seasons from being extension eligible, so he’s locked in financially at the moment ($9.9M fully guaranteed thru 2023), but there are more questions than answers with Miami’s QB position right now.

Zach Wilson, NYJ
To say it’s been a rocky start is probably an understatement. Still, I keep finding a lot of smart people projecting this situation to work out very well at the end of the day. It may not look great in 2021, but there’s a chance the Jets figure this thing out in the next 2-3 years.

Jalen Hurts, PHI
Wentz, out Hurts in, Hurts out, Watson in? The Eagles could really love Jalen Hurts, or could be dying to replace him right now. We’ll find out in a few weeks when a young Philly offense takes the field in real action. Hurts won’t be extension eligible until after 2022, and his rookie contract guarantees fall off after this season.

Who Knows?

Andy Dalton, CHI
The Bears have been calling him the QB1 for 6 months now, but I’m still not buying it. Justin Fields fell into their lap, and has the kind of athleticism to play in the NFL right now. Dalton is a top-level backup QB at this stage of his career, and could be one of those guys that sticks around on solid pay for the next 5 years.

Jared Goff, DET
Goff has a $15.5M roster bonus in 2022 that’s already fully guaranteed, but if things go poorly in 2021 (and they very well might), this could be a 1 and done situation.

Carson Wentz, IND
A brutal exit in Philly combined with an injury to start his Colts career has the Wentz situation in real question. Indy will likely roll with youth to get this season going, but Wentz will get a chance to secure this spot at some point. This team is ready to win now, so if Carson doesn’t appear to be the answer, look for another QB change in 2022, despite the $20M fully guaranteed next season.

Cam Newton, NE
It sure would be nice to get a few more years of the old Cam Newton back, but the odds appear stacked against that happening. It seems more plausible that Mac Jones takes the reins sooner rather than later, pushing Newton into a steady backup role, not unlike the one Andy Dalton is headed for.

Ryan Fitzpatrick/Taylor Heinicke, WAS
All signs point to FitzMagic getting the Week 1 nod, but it’s perfectly possible that Taylor Heinicke wins the job out of the camp. Fitzpatrick has $6M guaranteed on a 1 year contract, while Heinicke locked in $1.5M on a 2 year deal. It’ll take a big year from the latter to keep the WFT from strongly considered finding a new franchise QB next March.

Total & Practical Value

Josh Allen’s $258M new money extension with the Buffalo Bills is the second largest contract in NFL history (Mahomes, $450M). The total contract now sits at $264M over the next 8 years. However practically speaking (based on guarantees and dead cap structure), this is a 5 year, $164.5M contract, with $150M of that guaranteed.

View the Full Contract Breakdown
Watch a Video Breakdown of the Contract

Guarantees

Allen’s $100M un upfront guarantees is $5M more than anyone has received in NFL history (Dak Prescott, $95M). The structure of this $100M is even more impressive though, with guarantees pushing into 2024, the fourth year of the contract.

Allen’s 2021, 2022, & 2023 base salaries (combined $32.52M) are fully guaranteed, as are his $2.6M roster bonus this year, $42.4M option bonus next year, & $6M 2024 roster bonus. Factoring in his $16.5M signing bonus gets us to the $100M mark.

Next March, $10M of his 2024 salary fully guarantees, bringing us to $110M in practical guarantees.

In March of 2023, another $13.5M of his 2024 salary locks in, as does $16.5M of his 2024 roster bonus - $140M practically guaranteed.

$10.5M of his 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed on the 5th league day of 2024, bringing us to the $150M mark, over the course of the next 5 seasons.

Cash Flow

As we saw with Patrick Mahomes’ deal, the upfront cash flow for Josh Allen isn’t historic by any means. Allen sees $20M in 2021 (up from $3.5M), $47M in 2022 (up from $23M), & $28M in 2023, combining for $95M over the first three years of the contract. This ranks 6th among active contracts, $31M less than Dak Prescott’s $126M.

In terms of practical matters, the first 5 years of the contract can cash Allen $164.5M, or a practical AAV just under $33M. Other notable Practical AAVs: Carson Wentz ($26M), Jared Goff ($27M), Deshaun Watson ($28M), Patrick Mahomes ($28.3M)

Cap Structure

The 6 new years of this contract allowed for plenty of flexibility with the cap initially, and room to restructure as needed.

2021: $10.2M (+$3.3M)
2022: $16.3M (-$6.7M)
2023: $39.7M
2024: $41.7M
2025: $51.2M
2026: $47M
2027: $40M
2028: $41.5M

As in Mahomes’ deal, Allen has given his team considerable cap discounts in the first three years of this contract - most likely aligning with their window of contention. The salary cap hits don’t surpass $40M until 2024, when the league cap should be north of $230M thanks to billions of network money and a revived in-season revenue stream. The $51M+ charge in 2025 could be cause for concern, but that’s also a very realistic line of demarcation for this contract, either as an out for the Bills, or a good time to restructure for Allen (29 years old that season).

Concluding Thoughts

$150M of practical guarantees was always going to be the prime number for this contract - regardless of whether Baker Mayfield and/or Lamar Jackson’s contracts were established yet. But the way this contract gets to that number ($100M upfront, $140M by 2023), and with $165M of cash to be made over the course of that time period (2021-2025), this appears to be an exceptionally strong contract for Josh Allen.

While the signing/option bonus structure built into this contract isn’t my absolute favorite method, it’s hard to get around it with so much cash expected in the first 3-4 years of this mega quarterback deals. But the fact remains that the Bills have $58.9M of bonus proration on this contract, and there’s nothing they can do about that (see Carson Wentz & the Eagles).

This contract gives both sides exactly what they wanted. From the Bills standpoint, Buffalo gets to reward their homegrown QB with a top of the market, historic contract while keeping themselves open to extending their own, and/or adding a significant piece in each of the next two offseasons. Josh Allen gets at least $125M out of this contract over the next 4 seasons, regardless of injury, or lack of production, and the structure of his deal allows his team to remain in legitimate contention.

If all goes well, these two sides will be ripping this contract up in 2025, and doing it all over again - bigger and better.

View the Full Contract Breakdown
Watch a Video Breakdown of the Contract

As we head into training camp week for a few NFL teams, we’ll identify one notable, mostly veteran, player from each organization who could be entering the end of July on their roster bubble.

Arizona: Jordan Hicks, LB

2021 Cap Hit: $6M
Savings if Released: $3M
Hicks’ roster spot has been in jeopardy for two years now, and the Cardinals have now drafted his replacement in the starting lineup (Collins). Arizona will take on dead cap hits of $3M this and next year.

Atlanta: Steven Means, LB

2021 Cap Hit: $987,500
Savings if Released: $687,500
Means has special teams value, so it’s not a shoe-in that he misses the cut. But the Falcons have more depth at linebacker than any other position. This is a sneaky “OK” roster heading toward Week 1.

Baltimore: Andre Smith, OT

2021 Cap Hit: $875,000
Savings if Released: $850k
Smith was a depth signing whose role was supplanted when the Ravens locked in Alejandro Villanueva away from Pittsburgh. He’s a camp cut/sign back after week 1 candidate to remove the vested vet guarantee.

Buffalo: Cole Beasley, WR

2021 Cap Hit: $7.3M
Savings if Released: $5.3M
This one’s pure speculation. Beasley doesn’t seem happy, and the Bills do have a strong arsenal of potential WR2s now in the locker room, but it would still be a shocker move. It’s much more likely that someone falls off the defensive line in the coming weeks.

Carolina: Rashaan Melvin, CB

2021 Cap Hit: $850,000
Savings if Released: $850,000
A depth corner signing, Melvin will be competing for a roster spot in camp. There aren’t too many more vets to consider here.

Chicago: Anthony Miller, WR

2021 Cap Hit: $1.7M
Savings if Released/Traded: $1.2M
Miller’s probably safe, but if one of the 6 WRs currently behind him on the depth chart outplay him in camp, the noise will start to get louder. There’s probably a late round draft pick to be acquired via trade still.

Cincinnati: Josh Tupou, DT

2021 Cap Hit: $1.12M
Savings if Released: $1.12M
The Bengals have a surplus of offensive linemen right now, but with Joe Burrow returning from serious injury, they’ll be hard-pressed to get even close to thin in that regard. Tupou’s a camp release, Week 2 return candidate.

Cleveland: Cody Parkey, K

2021 Cap Hit: $987,500
Savings if Released: $787,500
Parkey had a solid 2020, and appears to be in line to win the job again this summer. But the Browns brought in Chase McLaughlin to compete for the spot this camp, and anything can happen over the next few weeks. This is a very solid roster.

Dallas: Darian Thompson, FS

2021 Cap Hit: $1.2M
Savings if Release: $1.1M
Safety is likely the weakest position on this team, so seeing a veteran taking off the roster here doesn’t make too much sense. But the thinking here is that Dallas could make a move to acquire a potential starter in the coming weeks.

Denver: Royce Freeman, RB

2021 Cap Hit: $1.2M
Savings if Released: $970k
Javonte Williams will be a name you’re about to hear a lot as fantasy football drafts rev up. With he, Melvin Gordon, and newly signed Mike Boone in the mix, Freeman could become the odd man out.

Detroit: Geronimo Allison, WR

2021 Cap Hit: $987,500
Savings if Released: $850k
Allison currently projected to the 7th WR on this roster, which is right on the cut off line for making the Week 1 roster. Plenty of time to change this though.

Green Bay: Devin Funchess, WR

2021 Cap Hit: $1.5M
Savings if Released: $1.2M
Funchess has been largely useless for the better part of 3 years now, so it was a little surprising to see Green Bay give him a $300k guarantee this winter. That might be a parting gift out of camp in a few weeks, as the Packers have plenty of WRs to choose from (just not 1st rounders).

Houston: Mark Ingram, RB

2021 Cap Hit: $2.3M
Savings if Released: $1.8M
The Texans signed 7 players for every position this offseason, so plenty of players are bound to fall off in the coming weeks. Ingram might not have enough left in the tank for what will certainly be a young Houston squad. His $500,000 signing bonus remains the only dead cap until Week 1.

Indianapolis: Jordan Wilkins, RB

2021 Cap Hit: $980k
Savings if Released: $920k
The Colts roll into camp with Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, & Marlon Mack locked into roles. Wilkins has been durable and reliable through three years, and it might behoove Indy to keep him on this alone, especially with Mack’s health a question mark.

Jacksonville: Tim Tebow, TE

2021 Cap Hit: $920k
Savings if Released: $920k
The Jaguars have 6 tight ends rostered heading into camp and Tebow likely sits in one of the last two spots right now. While the story would be compelling, there are likely better places to keep a player. Gardner Minshew’s spot seems to be heating up as well.

Kansas City:  Frank Clark, DE

2021 Cap Hit: $25.8M
Savings if Released: $19M*
Clark is facing serious legal trouble of which any sort of suspension from the league would void his remaining guaranteed base salary. With that said, his contract still contains $20.4M of dead cap stemming from bonus already paid out. It’s possible Kansas City could push to have some of this bonus repaid, which would lead to an eventual cap credit - but not in 2021. A release this summer would mean $6.8M of 2021 dead cap, $13.6M of 2022 dead cap (and a hole on the left edge of their D-Line)/

Las Vegas: Jalen Richard, RB

2021 Cap Hit: $3.5M
Savings if Released: $3.25M
Richard has done plenty to warrant a role on this squad, but the Raiders brought in Kenyan Drake on “serious playing time” money, and they’re going to use him accordingly. With Theo Riddick currently sitting 4th on this depth chart, there’s room for someone to go.

Los Angeles Chargers: Ryan Smith, CB

2021 Cap Hit: $1.5M
Savings if Released: $1M
Two new draft selections to the secondary have the Chargers with plenty of options heading into camp. This is the contract that stands out right now.

Los Angeles Rams: Johnny Hekker, P

2021 Cap hit: $4.9M
Savings if Released: $3.75M
Hekker has been All-NFL for about a decade now, but he noticeably slipped in 2020, and the Rams have responded by adding two additional punters for a camp competition. Hekker has cap & cash against him right now, but his reputation may precede him in the end.

Miami: Allen Hurns, WR

2021 Cap Hit: $2.8M
Savings if Released: $1.15M
Hurns has $1.25M of salary fully guaranteed, but he’s way down the WR depth chart to start camp, and there’s a bit of savings still to be had here. He’s a bubble player for sure.

Minnesota: Dru Samia, OG

2021 Cap Hit: $1M
Savings if Released: $850k
Samia posted one of the worst advanced ratings in 2020, and the Vikings added experienced depth to compete for his backup job. But more is always better at the offensive line.

New England: N'Keal Harry, WR

2021 Cap Hit: $2.75M
Savings if Traded: $1.4M
Harry’s contract is fully guaranteed through 2021, so it makes no financial sense to outright release him. But a trade for anything gets $1.4M of cap/cash off their books, and frees up a roster spot to be used elsewhere. That’s where this appears to be headed.

New Orleans: Latavius Murray, RB

2021 Cap Hit: $4.1M
Savings if Released: $3.1M
Murray has been a worthy backup for the Saints since 2019, and this release probably doesn’t happen until after the 2021 season. But if some of the younger talent (Washington, Montgomery) prove they can handle the RB2 job, there’s a good chunk to be saved here.

New York Giants: John Ross, WR

2021 Cap Hit: $1.8M
Savings if Released: $838k
The Giants have three receivers, Ross, CJ Board, & Dante Pettis who are carrying a cap hit north of $1M, but have fragile footing for this roster. It’s just a guess here that Ross will be the odd man out.

New York Jets: Chris Herndon, TE

2021 Cap Hit: $2.35M
Savings if Released: $2.1M
Yes, Herndon will enter camp as the TE1 for this Jets team, but 2020 went so poorly, that it stands to reason how long he remains there. Vets Ryan Griffin & Tyler Kroft now sit behind him on the depth chart, and it could very easily get to a point where both sides will request a change of scenery.

Philadelphia: Joe Flacco, QB

2021 Cap Hit: $1.56M
Savings if Released: $0
This isn’t happening, but I disliked the timing, cost, & fit of this signing so much that I still hope the contract is terminated before the season gets here. Especially now that Nick Mullens, a perfectly competent backup QB, sits on the Eagles’ depth chart.

Pittsburgh: Jordan Berry, P

2021 Cap Hit: $950k
Savings if Released: $850k
Berry’s been in the bottom of punter ratings for a few years now, but he’s probably still solid enough to keep at this price. Pittsburgh drafted some competition in the 7th round this year, so there’s an outside chance he’s pushed off the roster come September.

San Francisco: Jeff Wilson, RB

2021 Cap hit: $2.05M
Savings if Released: $920k
Wilson should signs of being a reliable option for SF, but the Niners took an RB in both the 3rd and 6th rounds this year who should factor heavily toward the top of this depth chart.

Seattle: Aldon Smith, EDGE

2021 Cap Hit: $987,500
Savings if Released: $850k
Smith is back in legal trouble, and was already on the edge of the Seahawks depth chart. This should be a no-brainer. 

Tampa Bay: Steve McLendon, DT

2021 Cap Hit: $987,500
Savings if Released: $987,500
It’s a hell of a story how many bodies the Bucs were able to return from last year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re here to stay. McLendon likely sits as the third Nose Tackle on the roster, which doesn’t bode well for his role heading into camp.

Tennessee: Brett Kern, P

2021 Cap Hit: $3.25M
Savings if Released: $2.7M
Kern has been with the Titans since 2009, an incredible tenure in today’s landscape. He’ll get some competition in camp from undrafted James Smith, and there’s a significant amount of cap/cash to be saved working against him.

Washington: Deshazor Everett, DB

2021 Cap Hit: $1.8M
Savings if Released: $1.5M
Everett has versatility on his side, playing snaps at both safety and cornerback in his career. Darryl Roberts is currently behind him on the depth chart, but also his $355,000 of his salary fully guarantees, something Everett doesn’t have going for him.

A look at players who were exposed to the Seattle Kraken expansion draft while carrying a current cap hit at or above $3.5 million. View the entire protection/exposure list from the NHL here.