The Chicago Bulls were 27-13 on January 14, 2022. The Bulls got crushed by the Golden State Warriors that day, to drop a second game in what would become a four-game losing streak.

From that point forward, Chicago has gone 64-79. That’s a .448 winning percentage. Not bad enough to be in great draft position, and certainly not good enough to be a real playoff contender. That’s squarely in the NBA purgatory that’s so hard to escape.

January 14, 2022 also happens to be the last time Lonzo Ball appeared in a game for the Bulls. Ball is in Year 3 of the four-year, $80 million contract he signed as a part of a sign-and-trade to Chicago ahead of 2021-22 season.

Ball has appeared in 35 of 183 total regular season games while on that contract.

This isn’t to put blame for Chicago’s failures on Ball and the series of knee surgeries he’s had over the past two years. It’s more to point out that there is a clear delineation point of where things went wrong for the Bulls. It’s rare that you can pinpoint where things turned sour, but it’s very clear in Chicago’s case.

Now, here we are. A team that has gone from briefly good to decidedly average to bad in a three-season span. The worst part? The Bulls are currently bad without hope.

Now, it’s fair to note here that the Bulls have very, very rarely bottomed out under Jerry Reinsdorf’s reign as the team’s owner. Even when Chicago got the first overall pick to draft Derrick Rose in 2008, that involved a considerable amount of lottery luck.

Under Reinsdorf, Chicago has preferred to stay competitive, even when everything else screams going in the other direction. For about a 15-year period, John Paxson and Gar Forman had the Bulls in the playoffs every year, even if only one of those seasons saw the team considered a real title contender.

At the end of the “GarPax” run leading the front office, the Bulls were a mess. They didn’t bottom out, as much as years of bad decisions pushed Chicago to the bottom of the standings. Enter Arturas Karnisovas.

After a predictably messy first season, which was spent resetting things, Karnisovas made his big splash in the summer of 2021. Karnisovas added Ball and DeMar DeRozan in a pair of sign-and-trade deals and signed Alex Caruso as a free agent. That threesome alongside Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic propelled Chicago that impressive start in 2021-22.

Almost two years later, all five players are still on the Bulls. And Chicago is no longer that fun team that’s full of potential. Instead, the team stinks, the cap sheet is a mess and they’re mostly devoid of young talent.

It’s time to break up the Bulls.

We’re going to present some sensible trade ideas that could get Chicago turned in the right direction. It’s important to note that we’re going to present trades as if Karnisovas has the buy-in from ownership to tear things down. Mostly, this is what we would do, and what we think the Bulls should do, as opposed to what Chicago will actually do.

Trade Assets

High-value

Alex Caruso: two years, $19,350,000 ($16,350,000 guaranteed)

DeMar DeRozan: one year, $26,800,000

Zach LaVine: four years, $178,063,200

Nikola Vucevic: three years, $60,000,000

Mid-range

Jevon Carter: three years, $19,500,000

Torrey Craig: two years, $5,373,575 (veteran minimum contract)

Ayo Dosunmu: three years, $21,000,000

Andre Drummond: one year, $3,600,000

Coby White: three years, $36,000,000

Patrick Williams: one year, $9,835,881

Minimum-value

Lonzo Ball: two years, $41,860,465

Julian Phillips: four years, $8,119,739

Terry Taylor: two years, $4,216,676 (veteran minimum contract, $700,000 guaranteed)

Dalen Terry: three years, $12,260,358

Draft Pick Situation

The Bulls first-round picks are a bit messy. They own their own pick in 2024. They owe a pick with sliding protections to the San Antonio Spurs (top-10 protected in 2025, top-8 protected in 2026 and 2027). Chicago then owns their own first-round pick from 2028 to 2030. The Bulls are also owed a first-round pick from the Portland Trail Blazers. That pick is lottery-protected from 2024 through 2028.

In the second round, the Bulls have traded their picks from 2024 through 2027, That means the earliest Chicago can have selection would be in 2028, and that’s only if they’ve conveyed a first-round pick to the Spurs by then. They’ll get an additional pick in the second round in 2028 if Portland hasn’t conveyed them a first-rounder by then. The Bulls then own their own second-round picks in 2029 and 2030.

Essentially: Chicago is doing ok on first-round picks, but could use more. They are pretty light on second-round selections.

The Cap and Tax Situation

The Bulls are a tick below the luxury tax for this current season. Given that they’ve paid the tax just twice in franchise history, that’s a marker they’ll be looking to stay under.

Going into the 2024 offseason, Chicago projects to be roughly $37 million under the tax. That sounds good, but that’s with four open roster spots and without new contracts for DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams, Torrey Craig and Andre Drummond.

Re-signing simply the first two players, and then filling out the roster with minimums, would put the Bulls at or over the tax line.

In the summer of 2025, pending moves between now and then, the Bulls could be a cap space team. Lonzo Ball’s contract will have expired by then, and that’s a major stumbling block for Chicago having some cap flexibility.

The Trades

We’re getting to the good stuff now! Remember, the idea here is to reset things for the Bulls in a major way. Is this team going to be bad the rest of this season? They sure are! But they are probably going to be bad anyway. Our goal here is to give Chicago some hope for the future. We’re hoping to achieve that by adding some additional draft capital, young talent and resetting the cap sheet.

Trade 1

Chicago Bulls receive:

Ivica Zubac (two years, $22,676,543), Russell Westbrook (two years, $7,863,263), Amir Coffey (two years, $7,604,938)

LA Clippers receive:

Nikola Vucevic (three years, $60,000,000), Terry Taylor (two years, $4,216,676 – veteran minimum)

Rationale:

This trade is about clearing out the short- and long-term money owed to Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls save about $2 million this season, but they end up saving roughly $21.8 million over the next three seasons. And Ivica Zubac’s, Amir Coffey’s and Russell Westbrook’s deals all expire after the 2024-25 season. That gets Chicago out of the final year of Vucevic’s deal.

The assumption is that Chicago would either straight waive Westbrook or would buy him out. Because he makes far less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Westbrook would be free to join any team that needs a point guard for the stretch run.

On the Clippers side, they add Vucevic, who gives them a better offensive fit alongside their star trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden. The Clippers also clear out a bit of backcourt logjam this way, without having to waive Westbrook.

Trade 2

Chicago Bulls receive:

Bennedict Mathurin (three years, $23,349,373 – rookie scale), Jordan Nwora (one year, $3,000,000), Jalen Smith (two years, $10,461,159), Marcus Morris (one year, $17,116,279), first-round pick from Indiana, first-round pick from Philadelphia

Indiana Pacers receive:

Zach LaVine (four years, $178,063,200), Torrey Craig (two years, $5,373,575 – veteran minimum), Mo Bamba (one year, $2,009,706 – veteran minimum)

Philadelphia 76ers receive:

Buddy Hield (one-year, $19,279,841), Andre Drummond (one-year, $3,360,000)

Rationale:

Chicago isn’t likely to turn Zach LaVine into a better package than this. He’s good, but not great. In this deal, the Bulls get a young wing with upside in Bennedict Mathurin and two first-round picks. Jordan Nwora and Jalen Smith are both flyers. Maybe they pop, maybe they don’t. The assumption is that Morris would either be waived, take a buyout or the Bulls would bench him until his contract expires.

As for the picks, Indiana owns all of their owns picks. Chicago could negotiate for something more immediate or something down the line. Philadelphia is now armed with the ability to trade a pick, likely one of the ones they got in the James Harden deal.

As for finances, the Bulls achieve massive savings here. They send out roughly $46 million in salary for this season. They bring back about $32 million. That’s nearly $14 million in savings for this season. The long-term savings are even greater, as they clear out nearly $138 million owed to Zach LaVine beyond this season, while adding only $22 million.

For the Pacers, this is how they can add an All-Star-level player. Indiana isn’t attracting stars in free agency, so they have to trade for or develop them. Buddy Hield doesn’t seem long for the Pacers, so the real give-ups here are Mathurin and the first-round pick. LaVine would be an upgrade alongside Haliburton and would make the Pacers offense even more unstoppable than it already is.

Torrey Craig would also be a nice defensive-minded addition for the wing rotation. And Mo Bamba becomes the third center, behind Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson.

As for the Sixers, they get the shooter they need. The real cost for acquiring Hield is the first-round pick. Marcus Morris and Mo Bamba are end-of-the-bench guys at this point. Hield and Andre Drummond are major upgrades over both players. And, as an added bonus, Philadelphia doesn’t take on any salary beyond this season. They still have all the same cap flexibility that they previously had.

Trade 3

Chicago Bulls receive:

Brandon Clarke (four years, $50,000,000), Luke Kennard (two years, $29,527,272 – second-year team option), first-round pick from Memphis

Memphis Grizzlies receive:

DeMar DeRozan (one year, $28,600,000), Jevon Carter (three years, $19,500,000)

Rationale:

This is about doing right by DeRozan and sending him to a team he can help. Yes, the Grizzlies are currently worse than the Bulls, but they have some hope of righting the ship when they get Ja Morant back and some others return from injury.

Clarke is owed a decent chunk of change, so Chicago is actually adding some long-term salary in this deal. But Clarke could be a starting big when he returns in 2024-25. At $12.5 million per season, that’s a value deal. Kennard will likely play out the season providing some shooting to a roster that is somewhat light on it. Then, the Bulls can either decline his option, or pick it up and look to trade him in a deal next summer. And, like in the previous trades, getting an additional first-round pick is huge for the rebuilding Bulls.

Memphis gets the scoring punch they desperately need in DeRozan. And Carter gives them some continued insurance at point guard. For a first-round pick, of which the Grizzlies own all of their picks, you can’t ask for more than this return.

Trade 4

Chicago Bulls receive:

Dyson Daniels (three years, $19,551,349 – rookie scale), Kira Lewis Jr. (one year, $5,722,116), first-round pick from Milwaukee (via New Orleans)

New Orleans Pelicans receive:

Alex Caruso (two years, $19,350,000 – second season $3 million guaranteed)

Rationale:

The Bulls get yet another first-round pick, plus they get a young guard/wing with some upside in Dyson Daniels. He fits in nicely in the new rebuilding group of young players Chicago has. The Bulls can also take a look at Kira Lewis Jr. before making a decision on his free agency in the summer.

Financially, the Bulls take on some money, but it’s in the form of Daniels’ rookie scale deal. That’s a win.

The Pelicans add a veteran guard/wing to the rotation. Alex Caruso is a top-tier defender and a combination of him and Herb Jones would be very hard to score on. Caruso can also play alongside any of the Pelicans stars, as he’s a good off-ball player. For Daniels and an extra pick, New Orleans can’t do much better. Bonus: this deal has them within one minor salary-dump of getting out of the luxury tax.

Trade 5

Chicago Bulls receive:

Isaac Okoro (one year, $8,920,795)

Cleveland Cavaliers receive:

Ayo Dosunmu (three years, $21,000,000), Dalen Terry (three years, $12,260,358 – rookie scale)

Rationale:

This one is about the Bulls getting out of the long-term money owed to Ayo Dosunmu and Dalen Terry. After this series of deals, Chicago has better options at lead guard, making Dosunmu a luxury. Isaac Okoro is a guy who could still pop with increased playing time, and then the Bulls can make a decision on his free agency this summer.

The Cavaliers could use another guard behind Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Dosunmu can give them some solid backup play at either spot. Okoro had fallen out of the rotation, as Cleveland added some additional wing depth this past summer. Terry is a flyer for a Cavs team that is going to be around the luxury tax line. If he develops, they’ll have a cost-controlled player as the roster gets expensive.

Overall

Making five trades, especially ones of this scale is highly unlikely for any team. For the notably change-resistant Chicago Bulls, it’s almost unfathomable. But these are the kinds of moves the Bulls should consider making. It would constitute a nearly full teardown. Only Lonzo Ball would remain of the players owed significant money, and he becomes an expiring contract in the 2024-25 season.

We won’t attempt to make the claim that this end-result Bulls would be good. They’d likely be among the worst teams in the NBA. But that’s not exactly a bad result.

Chicago could have a great pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. They’d have a bunch of interesting young players, and some vets on tradable contracts. And they’d have picked up four additional first-round picks as they rebuild.

The cap sheet would also be incredibly clean. For 2024-25, the Bulls could be looking at north of $75 million in cap space. If they kept their powder dry and slow-played things for one more season, they could easily have more than $100 million in cap space in the summer of 2025.

Blowing up a team is never easy. At best, it’s a signal of moving away from some great years (see: Boston Celtics in 2013). At worst, it’s an admission of failure. Much like a summer abroad, the Bulls had a great couple of months. It’s time to move on and let them be fun memories to return to on a dreary Chicago day.

The way forward isn’t to keep chasing after that short window of being really good team. That’s over. It’s not happening for this group. The best path now is one that involves taking things down to the very foundation and starting to build back up again. These trades, or ones like them, could put the Bulls on a path to being something better than the middling-to-bad team they are now.

It’s never too early to start thinking about 2024, and what better way to do so than with a dive into Quarterback contracts. This time, we’ll detail just the guaranteed money that currently exists on each player’s deal (noting wherever needed that certain triggers could add more to that figure in the coming months). We’ve broken up this group into 6 categories for you: All Good, Ready to Parlay, Grab Popcorn, The Deshaun Watson Category, Potentially Annoying, & No Current Guarantees.

ALL GOOD

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs, 28, $204.15M)

Mahomes’ restructured deal is complex, so putting a singular “future guarantee” number out is a bit convoluted, but it’s fair to make the next 4 seasons guaranteed for practical purposes. Expect KC to chop up that $57.3M cap hit for 2024 quite a bit in order to keep a few defensive players and maybe add a weapon or two offensively next March. All good in KC.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles, 25, $155M)

Hurts is near/at the top of the MVP list heading toward the home stretch and he’s manning arguably the best team in all of football. His 2024 cap hit rings in at just $13.5M thanks to 5 prorated bonuses built into the deal. It’s all good in Philly.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens, 26, $105M)

Lamar is manning the best team in the AFC and playing good, smart football in the process. Jackson is fully guaranteed through 2025, with practical structure keeping him in the fold through 2026. He’ll only be 29 years old at that time. All good in Baltimore.

Russell Wilson (Broncos, 34, $76M)

It’s a modern miracle that Wilson gets categorized here after we all (ourselves included) tried to run him out of the league 10 months ago. But the Broncos are the hottest team in football, their coach appears to be worth every penny, and Wilson looks as capable a QB1 as he has in 3 seasons. There’s simply no reason to doubt this situation for 2024 right now, even if the $76M due over 2024/2025 seems gaudy.

Josh Allen (Bills, 27, $65M)

Allen and the Bills have had plenty of up and downs this season, and change in some capacity is forthcoming - but not with the QB1 position. All of Allen’s $30M due next year is guaranteed, & $35M of 2025 compensation will fully lock by March 17th. It’s not all good in Buffalo, but Allen is.

C.J. Stroud (Texans, 22, $12.1M)

No single player has gone from 0 to 100 this year quite like Stroud has, who continues to impress more and more on a weekly basis. He won't become extension eligible until after 2025, and Houston should carry Top 5 cap space heading into March. It’s been awhile, but it’s all good in Houston.

READY TO PARLAY

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins, 25, $23.1M)

Tua has answered every bell this season (thus far), and can certainly further his status with a healthy postseason run in the coming weeks. He’s the #3 overall graded QB according to PFF right now, carrying a $50.2M valuation in our system to date. 

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars, 24, $5.6M)

Jacksonville will exercise Lawrence’s 5th-Year-Option for 2025 this spring, then they’ll work on extending him to most likely one of the Top 3 largest contracts in NFL history. He’s a $50M per year player in our system right now.

GRAB POPCORN

Kyler Murray (Cardinals, 26, $90.8M)

For all intents and purposes, Murray looks great and should easily be sharpied in as Arizona’s 2024 Week 1 starter. However, any team carrying a Top 3 draft pick (currently #2 overall) has to at least be considered for going in a different direction. Until Marvin Harrison Jr. is selected to be Kyler’s new toy, this is at least a situation worth mentioning.

Daniel Jones (Giants, 26, $35.5M)

Jones completed successful surgery on his torn ACL earlier last week, putting his timeline to return at around 8-10 months. During that timespan, the Giants are very likely to select his pending replacement. It’s possible that Jones has played his last snap for the Giants, who may very well pay him $35.5M next season to act as a backup QB, but only time will tell.

Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders, 32, $11.25M)

Garoppolo was benched in favor of Aidan O'Connell as the calendar turned to November, and - for a few reasons - it appears to be a point of no return. First, while Garoppolo’s $11.25M roster bonus for next March is already 100% fully guaranteed, his $11.25M base salary is guaranteed for injury. In other words, if Garoppolo were to suffer an injury this year that would preclude him from passing a physical next March, that salary would then be considered guaranteed as well. Second, O’Connell continues to improve, and should be given the remainder of 2023 to begin his assessment process. Garopollo’s deal doesn’t appear to be tradable right now, meaning the Raiders will likely release him out of this contract, paying him the $11.25M roster bonus, taking on a $28.3M dead cap hit either all at once, or split across 2024/2025.

Zach Wilson (Jets, 24, $5.4M)

Will Wilson be kept around to backup Aaron Rodgers in 2024? Logic says his benching to make way for Tim Boyle has already answered that question, but it will mean releasing the 24 year old with $5.4M cash to be paid on his way out. This doesn’t seem like a situation that can be resolved any other way right now.

Justin Fields (Bears, 24, $3.2M)

Health has cut a big year for Fields nearly in half, but there still have been signs of improvement (especially as it pertains to the passing efficiency numbers). So why is he here at all? At the time of this piece, the Bears currently possess the #1 & #4 overall picks in the draft AND Chicago must decide on Fields’ 5th-Year-Option by next May. Fields carries a fully guaranteed $3,233,448 salary for 2024, against a $6M cap hit.

Mac Jones (Patriots, 25, $2.7M)

It certainly seems like it’s over, so now it’s simply a matter of how do the Patriots officially close the book? If Bill Belichick is relieved of his duties, it seems likely that the first order of business for the new GM will be to decline Mac’s 5th-Year-Option and attempt to salvage any sort of late round draft pick from a trade. When that doesn’t happen, Jones may be outright released (earning the $2.7M payment on the way out the door), or kept to compete for a completely unknown QB1 role next season.

THE DESHAUN WATSON CATEGORY

Deshaun Watson (Browns, 28, $138M)

Are the Browns nearly as concerned about this as much as the mass media likes to poke at it? Probably not. In honesty a 28 year old QB with $138M guaranteed remaining on his deal is pretty common stuff these days (if we just overlook how they acquired the QB and how much they’ve paid him to be suspended or injured of course). The Browns are legitimate AFC contenders next year, and if Chubb & Watson return to full health for all 18 weeks, they’ll be a problem for nearly everyone. With that said, we still won’t see another version of this contract indefinitely.

POTENTIALLY ANNOYING

Justin Herbert (Chargers, 25, $201.6M)

There’s still plenty to love here about the player, but Herbert doesn’t appear poised to be able to elevate this current group of Chargers’ weapons. Maybe it’s play calling, maybe it’s the age of many of those weapons, or maybe it’s a ceiling that Herbert has hit. It appears as though plenty of change is coming to the franchise this offseason, so we’ll all get a fresh start with Herbert as he stares down five more years of contract guarantees.

Joe Burrow (Bengals, 26, $173.5M)

Before you run away - we’re in no way saying here that Joe Burrow isn’t worth every dime of his contract right now. However, it’s at least noteworthy to mention that his injury history is starting to pile up a bit, especially if we include his college days.

2017: Right Wrist Fracture
2020: Broken Ribs
2020: ACL/MCL Tear
2022: Appendectomy
2023: Calf Strain
2023: Torn Wrist Ligament

This isn’t to say that most QBs (or NFL players) don’t go through their fair share of injuries, but when we’re dealing with someone who still has $173.5M guaranteed going forward, it’s something to monitor. 31 other teams would still take him tomorrow if offered.

Matthew Stafford (Rams, 35, $41M)

All of Stafford’s $31M salary for 2024 is already fully guaranteed. If he’s on the roster March 15th, $10M of 2025 locks in as well. When healthy, Stafford can still produce at an above average level, though he’ll be looking for Les Snead to find him a few more weapons this offseason. Will 2024 be his last hurrah?

Derek Carr (Saints, 32, $40M)

Carr hasn’t been terrible, but the Saints expected him to improve upon the production that got him benched and subsequently run out of Las Vegas in 2022. He hasn’t, and New Orleans now likely needs to consider their options for 2025 and beyond. That process could very well begin this offseason via the draft. Contractually, Carr is fully guaranteed $30M in 2024, and $10M of his 2025 compensation locks in next March. The latter could very well be a parting gift if the Saints decide to cut bait after 2024.

Aaron Rodgers (Jets, 40, $38.1M)

The Rodgers era in NY was paused almost as quickly as it was started. Will it pick back up before season end? Maybe, but if you follow us on socials you already know our thoughts on that. Assuming he’s 100% healthy heading toward 2024, it should be worth the price of admission to see Rodgers bring his heady style of play to this offense. Maybe the Jets can pick up an extra Offensive Lineman or 5 this spring to help his cause. Rodgers carries a $17M cap hit for 2024 so no adjustments should be necessary.

Bryce Young (Panthers, 22, $12.6M)

Carolina traded their 2024 1st round pick to Chicago, who is currently on the clock with it. They’ve already fired HC Frank Reich, and there may be plenty more change to come from the front office before winter even settles in. Owner David Tepper was reportedly very high on making Young the QB of the future. It seems logical that his next hires will follow that mindset as well.

Anthony Richardson (Colts, 21, $11.5M)

He looks deadly as a versatile athlete, but the passing numbers (59% completions, 87.25 rating in 4 games) were always going to be the metrics to watch. He lands here not because he doesn’t appear able to improve, but because the overall concern was could he remain healthy being this scramble-first player. It’s a tough start to only complete a month in Year 1 with that red flag already attached.

Jordan Love (Packers, 25, $5.5M)

Love appears to have turned a corner with this offense, especially as it pertains to hopeful WR1 Christian Watson. This should be more than enough for Green Bay to swallow a sub $10M cash/cap hit (assuming he hits a few escalators to finish out 2023), and see this thing through 2024 at least. Does he appear to be on track to be Green Bay’s next 20 year QB1? No. Will his 2023 performance preclude the Packers from selecting a QB in the upcoming draft? Maybe. But until they make this contract a problem - it isn’t one.

Kenny Pickett (Steelers, 25, $4.6M)

Nothing Pickett has done across two seasons is jumping off of the page (in fact his overall production in 2023 is going to be a step back from 2022), but he’s winning, and he has trust from Mike Tomlin. That’s as good as gold in this league. Still, how good might this team be with a more capable QB1 at the helm?

Will Levis (Titans, 24, $4M)

All of Levis’ 2024 salary, 2025 salary, & $1.26M of his 2026 salary are fully guaranteed right now. He’s been wildly inconsistent since taking over the reins from Ryan Tannehill, but all signs currently point to him stepping in as the 2024 Week 1 starter.

NO CURRENT FUTURE GUARANTEES

Brock Purdy (49ers, 23)
Purdy has 2 years, $2M remaining on his rookie contract (none of it guaranteed) and can’t sign a contract extension until after 2024. Every other team in football is miserable because of it.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys, 30)
None of the remaining 1 year, $34M left on Dak’s contract is currently guaranteed, but a $5M roster bonus is due March 17th. There’s a $59.5M cap hit waiting for Dallas in 2024, so something needs to be done. It likely includes $200M more guaranteed.

Desmond Ridder (Falcons, 24)
None of Ridder’s remaining 2 years, $2.6M is guaranteed going forward.

Geno Smith (Seahawks, 33)
Smith’s 3 year, $75M contract was really a 1 year, $27.5M deal in terms of guarantee. There’s a $9.6M roster bonus due March 17th, and his entire $12.7M base salary for next season becomes fully guaranteed on that date as well. All $22.3M of that compensation is guaranteed for injury right now (which could become important if Seattle falls out of contention here soon). The Seahawks can free up $13.8M of cap space by moving on from Smith next March.

Jared Goff (Lions, 29)
None of the 1 year, $26.6M remaining on Goff’s contract is currently guaranteed, though a $5M roster bonus is due March 14th. Despite a Thanksgiving stumble, Goff has been one of the more reliable & production QBs of 2023, and still should be considered a more long term option for Detroit going forward. It’s not a lock that they extend him this offseason, but from an optics standpoint it probably makes good business sense.

A Minnesota QB
Kirk Cousins is a pending free agent (with $28.5M of voided dead cap to be left behind), Joshua Dobbs is a pending free agent, & Nick Mullens & Jaren Hall have no future contract guarantees.

A Tampa Bay QB
Baker Mayfield is a pending UFA ($2.3M of voided dead cap to be left behind), and Kyle Trask’s contract through 2024 is non-guaranteed.

A Washington QB
Sam Howell’s rookie deal through 2025 contains no full guarantees, and he can’t sign a contract extension until after 2024. He’s on a 2 year, $2M contract in Washington from here out.

For a year or so, the off-court priority for the NBA was on hammering out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. That’s now in the rearview mirror.

Now, the NBA’s focus has turned to negotiating new media rights deals. That’s on both a national and a local level. The national rights deals that are currently with Disney (ESPN, ABC) and Turner (TNT, NBA TV) are up after the 2024-25 season. That means negotiations are already underway, with more potential partners entering the fold when the exclusive window for Disney and Turner ends.

On the local level, Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy is impacting the regional Bally Sports networks coverage of the league. The NBA and Diamond Sports Group reached an intermediate agreement for coverage this season, but it looks like season’s games could be handled differently for roughly half of the league’s teams.

Right behind the new CBA and the new TV deal, the NBA has expansion pushing in. Gone are the days of NBA commissioner Adam Silver saying the league isn’t looking at expansion. He’s not even saying things like “We might dust that off at some point”, as Silver did during the pandemic.

Silver has said for a while that the league “could” look at expansion after the CBA negotiations and the media rights deals were complete. That’s now turned into multiple times when Silver has said the NBA “will” look into expansion after the media rights deal is complete, now that the CBA is finished.

That doesn’t mean expansion is coming in the next year or so. But NBA expansion is coming. That much is clear.

Roughly a year-and-a-half ago, we wrote it's time for the NBA to expand. Everything in that article holds up today. There is labor peace, the league is deep in talent, interest in the league is high and Seattle and Las Vegas still loom as suitors for the NBA.

With all of that said, let’s take a look at how NBA Expansion would work. This is the first in a series related to NBA Expansion that we’ll run over the next several years, until the league actually does expand. Today, we’re going to outline the timeline and the process. After that, we’ll get into the fun stuff of how an Expansion Draft actually works.

The Expansion Timeline

Whenever the NBA does decide it’s time to expand, it won’t be an overly quick process. When the original Charlotte Hornets relocated to New Orleans, it happened at the end of the 2001-2002 season. The NBA underwent an expedited process to expand and to get a team back into Charlotte as quickly as possible.

The league began taking bids almost immediately (mostly to avoid a lawsuit related to the relocation of the original Hornets), and in mid-December of 2002 they picked Robert Johnson’s bid as the winner. In January of 2003, the NBA Board of Governors approved Johnson and the new team.

In June of 2003, the team was named the Bobcats. Approximately a year later, on June 22, 2004, the 2004 Expansion Draft was held. And the team took the floor at the start of the 2004-2005 season.

That was a quicker turnround than the previous time the league had expanded. When the original Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic joined the league, there were three-year (for the Hornets and Heat) and four-year (for the Timberwolves and Magic) gaps between the league announcing expansion and the start of play.

(The NBA staggered the introduction of the four new teams to avoid diluting the state of play by bringing four new teams in all at once.)

Charlotte and Miami both started play with the 1988-89 season. Minnesota and Orlando joined the fray for the 1989-90 season.

When the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies joined the NBA, there was roughly a two-and-a-half-year gap between the start of the process and the teams starting play. The league was known to be considering expansion in late-1992. In September of 1993, they awarded Toronto a franchise. In February of 1994, Vancouver was given the second Canadian franchise. In late-June of 1995, the Raptors and Grizzlies took part in the 1995 NBA Expansion Draft. The teams then started play in the 1995-96 season.

So, let’s say the league wraps up their media rights deal as quickly as possible, and everything is set sometime in 2024. If we take Adam Silver at his word, we can expect the expansion process to start after that.

Now, let’s say the league wants to move quickly on expansion too. If we use the two-year window, that would mean the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons are played as normal. Then, with the start of the 2026-27 season, we’d likely have two new teams in place. If anything is delayed, those debuts could be pushed to the 2027-28 season or possibly even the 2028-29 season.

That means somewhere between the 2026-27 and 2028-29 seasons are the most likely seasons when we’ll see new teams join the NBA.

The Expansion Process

When the NBA decides it’s time to expand, they’ll start the process by allowing cities and ownership groups to bid for teams. Yes, we can all assume that Seattle and Las Vegas are probably the most likely cities to get teams. But that’s an assumption, and nothing more.

Several other cities will be in the mix. Adam Silver himself recently mentioned a return to Vancouver as being on the table. He said Montreal has reached out the NBA on being a potential expansion city. Silver also talked about Mexico City being an area that the league is partnering with, with the current G League team potentially being a precursor to an NBA team at some point.

Stateside, there are a lot of cities that have expressed interest in having their own NBA team. Louisville, Kansas City, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach and San Diego have all been in the mix at various points.

So, even if Seattle and Las Vegas are the heavy favorites, the NBA isn’t going to discard the other suitors. The reasons for this are two-fold.

First, by encouraging more cities to bid for teams, the cost of each expansion team will go up considerably. As of now, the league is expected to get somewhere between $3 and $4 billion for each team. And that’s being somewhat conservative in projecting how much money comes in. Considering the expansion fees go directly to the ownership groups of the existing 30 teams, they want those figures to be as high as possible.

Because of this, expect the league to entertain bids from non-Seattle and non-Las Vegas groups. But there’s a secondary motivation to that, as well.

By taking in as many bids as possible, the NBA can find out who is really serious about adding a team. For example, if a city comes in with a bid worth “only” $2 billion, they’ll be almost immediately out of the mix. Now, let’s say four cities come in with bids approaching or surpassing the $4 billion mark, now the league has options.

Even if the primary option is to initially expand to Seattle and Las Vegas, the league would have serious suitors in other cities. And it’s clear that the NBA remains committed to expanding their global reach, likely by furthering their presence in Canada first. If there are more than just Seattle and Las Vegas on the table, the NBA can push the expansion fees higher, while also keeping a couple of cities in their back pocket.

Let’s go back to when the league added the Heat, Timberwolves, Magic and original Hornets. There is some mixed reporting on whether or not the league wanted to add four team. Some say the NBA was committed to two new cities, but found two more suitable candidates that they felt they couldn’t pass up.

Could history repeat itself? It’s certainly possible. Adding roughly $16 billion in expansion fees for four teams (and, again, that’s potentially a conservative figure) would mean each of the existing 30 teams will pocket over $500 million. And that’s money that doesn’t go to the players.

The downside? The existing 30 teams would eventually have to split the hoped-for $75 billion from the media rights deal more than planned for. But $500 million goes a long way towards offsetting any potential loss in TV revenue. Agan again, that’s money straight into the owners’ pockets.

What’s Next

We’ll touch on the actual Expansion Draft process in the next installment. When the NBA is in a bit of a dead period, it’s a popular exercise to do a mock Expansion Draft. However, a lot of these are done in a somewhat sloppy way. They seem to be hit-or-miss on following the actual Expansion Draft rules and processes.

We’re going to lay out all of the rules in our next installment of the NBA Expansion Series. The goal is to make everything as understandable as possible, as well as to provide a guide for any would-be mock Expansions Drafts. We’ll also cover how the salary cap works for these teams, and what the NBA has done as far as draft picks for expansion teams, as well.

After that, we’ll explore the history of past Expansion Drafts. We’ll look at protected lists, strategies (for both incumbent and expansion teams) and the actual draft results themselves. From there, we’ll explore what teams did with their inaugural rosters, as far as trades and signing free agents.

We’ll also look at the history of how long it’s taken an expansion team to become a good team. How long before the playoffs are a reality? How long before the team won a playoff series? And when did they become a real contender?

Then, with all of rules and history behind us, we’ll start the fun process of some mock Expansion Drafts ourselves. We’ll do protected lists and draft lists (for both two- and four-team Expansion Drafts). And we’ll continually tweak and track the progress of these lists as we build toward an inevitable actual Expansion Draft.

We’re going to have some fun with this and look forward to having you join us on the ride!

Which players are NFL teams most thankful for this holiday season? Based on Spotrac’s True Value Statistic, these are the players offering the most value against their 2023 compensation through 11 weeks of the NFL season (minimum 50% games).

QUARTERBACKS

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins, 98.65), Brock Purdy (49ers, 93.75), C.J. Stroud (Texans, 93.01)

Honestly, it’s a neck & neck & neck conversation here, as all three currently carry a TVs Rating just north of 93 in our system. Tua is staring down a contract extension next spring, Purdy could find himself in the Super Bowl in a few months, and Stroud is the runaway rookie of the year.

Best Value Veteran: Josh Allen (Bills, 88.49)

RUNNING BACKS

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins, 98.65), Kyren Williams (Rams, 96.53), Brian Robinson (Commanders, 89.59)

No running back has a perfect resume this time of year, but Mostert is absolutely flourishing in this Miami system. He’s on pace for career numbers both as a runner and a pass catcher, and may score 20 total TDs when it’s all said and done.

Next Best Value Veteran: Christian McCaffrey (49ers, 86.51)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions, 99.36), CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys, 99.34), Brandon Aiyuk (49ers, 98.69)

St. Brown (99.36) and Lamb (99.34) are in a virtual value tie heading toward Week 12, and both should be up for significant contract extensions in the coming months. The same might be said for Aiyuk, who is playing out Year 4 of his rookie contract, with an already exercised $14.1M 5th-year-option waiting in 2024.

Best Value Veteran: Tyreek Hill (Dolphins, 91.17)

TIGHT ENDS

Sam LaPorta (Lions, 98.24), George Kittle (49ers, 97.95), Jake Ferguson (Cowboys, 96.70)

LaPorta is on pace for 85 catches, 850 yards, and 7 TDs in his debut season, and could be on a fast track to being the league’s best TE sooner rather than later. Kittle is playing out Year 4 of a 6 year contract in San Francisco, and Ferguson has quickly become one of Dak Prescott’s goto targets in Year 2 of his 4th round rookie contract.

Next Best Value Veteran: Travis Kelce (Chiefs, 96.26)

OFFENSIVE TACKLES

Christian Darrisaw (Vikings, 98.71), Penei Sewell (Lions, 95.49)

The Joshua Dobbs story is fun, but the real reason the Vikings are keeping a crumbling ship afloat may be their offensive line play, beginning with Darrisaw. The 24-year-old becomes extension eligible after 2023. Andrew Thomas’ $23.5M per year; $67M guaranteed is very much in play. Sewell is in a similar boat in Detroit, as the former #t7 overall pick can lock in a rookie extension after this season as well. He’s a franchise talent.

Best Value Veteran: Trenton Brown (NE, 92.48)

GUARDS

Quinn Meinerz (Broncos, 98.21), Greg Van Roten (Raiders, 94.82)

Van Roten signed a near minimum contract to join Las Vegas this past May and has held the fort down nicely. The 31-year-old should have no trouble locking in a new deal next March. Meinerz was a 3rd round pick back in 2021 and has improved every year, culminating with 2023. He becomes extension eligible for the first time after 2023.

Next Best Value Veteran: Graham Glasgow (Lions, 94.40)

CENTERS

Drew Dalman (Falcons, 99.56), Creed Humphrey (Chiefs, 97.22)

Neither Dalman or Humphrey are surprising anyone anymore, as both have had outstanding 2 ½ seasons to begin their careers. Humphrey was the #63 pick in the 2021 draft, while Dalman was selected a few rounds later at #114. Both become extension eligible after 2023 and should be considered strong candidates to reset the center market (($14.25M per year, $42M guaranteed).

Best Value Veteran: Connor Williams (Dolphins, 95.32)

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

Jalen Carter (Eagles, 99.44), Justin Madubuike (Ravens, 98.04)

Carter’s making a strong case to claim Defensive Rookie of the Year in Philly, making plenty of NFL teams regret letting him slip to #9 overall this past May. Madubuike is having a breakout season in a contract year - always a good recipe. He’s an $18.5M player in our system heading toward the offseason.

Best Value Veteran: David Onyemata (Falcons, 93.82)

EDGE DEFENDERS

Micah Parsons (Cowboys, 98.65), A.J. Epenesa (Bills, 99.26)

Parsons continues to do Parsons this in Dallas, and he mathematically projects to a 4 year, $114M extension this offseason. Logic says that numbers needs to be closer to $140M to peak his interest. Epenesa entered 2023 with 9 sacks and 2 forced fumbles in 3 seasons. He enters Week 12 with 6.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception.

Best Value Veteran: Myles Garrett (Browns, 92.34)

LINEBACKERS

Tyrel Dodson (Bills, 97.03), Quincy Williams (Jets, 96,68)

Dodson has had the mammoth task of picking up the slack left by Matt Milano’s injury, and for the most part - he’s held his own. Factor in a minimum $1.01M salary, and Buffalo is getting plenty from the 25-year-old UDFA. Quincy WIlliams might just be the next big star coming out of NY/NJ. Every time the Jets have been thrust into the spotlight this season - Williams has been up to the task. He’s in Year 1 of a 3 year, $18M contract.

Next Best Value Veteran: Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars, 92.22)

CORNERBACKS

DaRon Bland (Cowboys, 99.83), Ja’Quan McMillian (Broncos, 99.49)

Bland has been the gift that keeps on giving in Dallas, and his 5th round rookie contract makes it all a little bit sweeter. He won’t become extension eligible until after 2024. The Broncos secondary is loaded with high priced talent - but McMillian makes this list on a minimum salary, UDFA contract. His emergence has been just one example of why the Broncos have turned a corner of late.

Best Value Veteran: Tavierre Thomas (Texans, 95.21)

SAFETIES

Jevon Holland (Dolphins, 98.3), Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers, 98.1)

The Dolphins have players all over this list, including their young ballhawk Holland, who has now put together 2 seasons near the top of the league. He’ll be entering a contract year in 2024. Winfield Jr. is in a contract year, and the Buccaneers will have a mighty decision to make this Spring, as the 25-year-old has a legitimate chance to reset the safety market ($19.1M per year, $42M guaranteed).

Best Value Veteran: Geno Stone (Ravens, 89.99)

Every time the KC offense runs through 7th round pick Isaiah Pacheco, a running back contract extension dies. The devaluation is real (as you’ve now heard a million times), and it’s only looking worse for the upcoming NFL offseason. We’ll dive into the notable running backs slated for free agency next March, including thoughts on how things may shake out for the current top-paid players in the group.

RELATED
2024 Running Back Cap Hits
2024 Free Agent Running Backs

Josh Jacobs (Raiders, 25)

2023 Salary: $11,791,000
2024 Valuation: $10.75M (4 years, $43M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Despite heading toward Year 6 of his NFL career, Jacobs will be one of the younger pending free agents. Age doesn’t preclude mileage, but with a much larger presence in the passing game the past 3 seasons, he’s a solid, versatile, under 26 year old option for somebody next March.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
The Yards per Attempt have completely fallen off of a cliff (4.9 in 2022, 3.3 in 2023), and he’s fumbling at the highest rate of his career to go along with it. Jacobs was an astonishing 99.5% True Value in our system last year against a $2.1M salary. This year, his 10.7% True Value sees him producing at a $1.25M level.

Most Likely Outcome
How the Raiders proceed next offseason is very much tied to how the last third of the 2023 season finishes out. They’ve turned a bit of a corner, and if Aidan O’Connell is a QB1 worth sticking with next season, then a lot of these current pieces may be kept in house. The Josh Jacobs we’ve seen on our screens this season won’t approach a $10M per year contract, but if he’s allowed to hit the open market, don’t count out a team like Kansas City tossing a value contract at him to bolster their offense next season.

Tony Pollard (Cowboys, 26)

2023 Salary: $10,091,000 (8th)
2024 Valuation: $6.6M (3 years, $20M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Like his former colleague Ezekiell Elliott, Pollard’s ability to handle a pass rush is Top 3 in the league among running backs (not an accident by the Cowboys, who value blocking about as much as any team in football across the board). Dallas doesn’t currently have a viable RB1 replacement on this roster, though there are viable options to consider (Dowdle, Vaughn).

Why He Might Not Get Paid
The Cowboys gifted Pollard a $10.1M franchise tag as he rehabbed himself back to full health, and subsequently took over the RB1 reins for the first time. As a $965,000 player in 2022, Pollard held a 98.5% value in our system. As a $10.1M player in 2023, Pollard currently holds a 10.1% True Value, or, he’s producing at a $1.01M value currently - which just so happens to be his minimum available salary.

Most Likely Outcome
The Cowboys have contracts to hand out left and right this Winter/Spring, including a couple of blockbusters for Prescott & Lamb. A $13M second franchise tag for Pollard seems inconceivable right now, but so does any sort of multi-year guaranteed extension if we’re being honest. Pollard hits the open market, seeking a cap adjusted version of Miles Sanders’ free agent deal (3 years, $20.5M). Green Bay, Chicago, & Buffalo are listening

Saquon Barkley (Giants, 26)

2023 Salary: $10,091,000
2024 Valuation: $6.6M (3 years, $20M)

Why He Might Get Paid
He’s 1 year removed from 1,700 yards from scrimmage, 57 catches, and 10 touchdowns, and has been stuck in one of the worst offenses in all of football this season. He bet on himself with incentives to garner a raise - and won’t earn a dollar extra from them. The Giants probably need to give Daniel Jones 1 more go around as QB1 (thanks to his contract). Does that mean Barkley gets a 2nd tag ($13M) to give Jones as talented a safety valve as possible?

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Barkley is a middle of the pack running back statistically speaking in almost every major category right now. There are a heck of a lot of outside reasons why - but it’ll be tough to justify a multi-year guarantee, despite the fact that Jonathan Taylor’s contract is now on the books for close reference

Most Likely Outcome
Like Taylor in Indy, Barkley’s best chance for a multi-year contract may be right where he currently stands. The Giants have a QB contract problem, a coaching staff trying to save their jobs, and little to no offensive weapons on the roster going forward. With that said, the days of us offering up $10M+ contracts for Barkley appear to be gone, and a 3 year, $20.5M deal is his maximum calculated value. Instead of guaranteeing two years of that at around $13M, why not just pull it all into 2024, with a second franchise tag.

Derrick Henry (Titans, 29)

2023 Salary: $10.5M
2024 Valuation $9.5M (2 years $19M)

Why He Might Get Paid
He’s still that guy. The Titans’ offense has been a mess this season, but Henry enters Week 12 as the #2 rated RB according to PFF. He won’t replicate a near 2,000 yards from scrimmage 2022, but 1,500 yards and 10 TDs are still within reach. Tennessee is probably OK handing the keys to youngster Tyjae Spears next year, but that shouldn’t keep them from considering a short term extension for Henry.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Henry will be 30 years old by the time this next contract takes shape. As you might imagine, there aren’t many examples of 30+ running backs producing well on anything north of a minimum salary these days, especially as it pertains to the more traditional  between the tackles player. The production still says he should be a high-priced running back, but that’s just not how the business of football operates anymore.

Most Likely Outcome
If the Titans were going to be OK seeing Henry play in another uniform, they would have traded him at this past Halloween deadline. They didn’t, so it’s only right to assume they’ll keep him in the fold for the remainder of his career. Henry gets a 2 year, $12M extension to handcuff/split carries with Spears through 2024, with a veritable option for 2025.

Austin Ekeler (Chargers, 28)

2023 Salary: $6.25M
2024 Valuation: $7.5M (3 years, $22M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Versatility. The Yards per Rush attempt are at an all-time low right now, but Ekeler is still a major weapon in the passing game. He should be on multiple team’s radars this spring if the Chargers let him get to the market. Across a full 2022 season, Ekeler was a 90% value against a $5.5M salary.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Ekeler attempted to hold out prior to the 2023 season for a new contract or more current year money. He settled for a $1.75M incentive package that all but vanished when he missed 4 weeks due to an ankle injury. So, unsuccessful holdout + contract year injury + position that is already massively devalued usually = far less than fair market value for next contract.

Most Likely Outcome
The Chargers don’t have a viable replacement for Ekeler on this roster, but major shakeups may be coming to both sides of the ball (and staffs) this winter. Ekeler signs a 1 year, $7M + incentives contract (the mysterious Dalvin Cook deal).

D'Andre Swift (Eagles, 24)

2023 Salary: $1.7M
2024 Valuation: $5.5M (4 years, $22M)

Why He Might Get Paid
Versatility and a career year with the best team in football. Swift is one of many young weapons in Philly, but he’s still well on pace to post career numbers both in rushing and receiving. The last guy who played this role (Miles Sanders) scored a 4 year, $25.4M contract in free agency. Also, he’ll turn 25 years old in January.

Why He Might Not Get Paid
Fumbles & a bit of year to year inconsistency. It’s hard to place too much value on the up and down experiences he went through in Detroit, but teams can point to just about anything to suppress a running back salary these days.

Most Likely Outcome
Philly has made this position a revolving door annually for quite some time now, so a multi-year extension wouldn’t seem to be the obvious choice - but we’re going to make it anyway. Here’s why. If the Eagles let this player walk into free agent (franchise tag probably not ideal with their cap situation), one of the teams seemingly primed to pounce could be NFC rival San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan has long been looking for a proper handcuff for Christian McCaffrey, whose magic is bound to run out here soon anyway. 3 years, $18M to stay in Philly.

NEED TO BE MENTIONED

Devin Singletary (Texans, 26)

2023 Salary: $2.75M + incentives
2024 Valuation: $4.3M (1 year, $4M)

Dameon Pierce's injury. has thrust Singletary into the spotlight. He's thrived, and should be considering a true RB1 role elsewhere if Houston won't pony up a little extra dough to keep him in the fold.

Zack Moss (Colts, 25)

2023 Salary: $1.1M
2024 Valuation: $4.6M (2 years, $9.2M)

Jonathan Taylor's absence was Moss' gain. He's not an 18-week every down back, but he showed more than enough to stick in this league as a complementary RB2 in a good system.

JK Dobbins (Ravens, 24)

2023 Salary: $1.4M
2024 Valuation: $2M (1 year, $2M)

Talented, versatile, the prototypical 2020s running back, when healthy. The injury bug has been devastating time and time again here.

D'Onta Foreman (Bears, 27)

2023 Salary: $2M
2024 Valuation: $3M (1 year, $3M)

Foreman hasn't found a complementary role that he hasn't been able to be successful in. That will continue for 2024.

Gus Edwards (Ravens, 26)

2023 Salary: $3.3M
2024 Valuation: $3.6M (1 year, $3.6M)

An absolute touchdown machine, especially in the red zone. Baltimore would be foolish to move on here.

A.J. Dillon (Packers, 25)

2023 Salary: $1.3M
2024 Valuation: $3.6M (1 year, $3.6M)

Never really got going in Green Bay and should have a chance to restart his career elsewhere this March.

Antonio Gibson (Commanders, 25)

2023 Salary: $2.7M
2024 Valuation: $3.6M (1 year, $3.6M)

Fumbles kept his touches (and valuation) at bay, but there's a lot of potential value if he signs with a good team at near minimum.

Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots, 28)

2023 Salary: $3M
2024 Valuation: $2.8M (1 year, $2.8M)

Somehow became the focal point of the Patriots' offense in 2023, and should be able to keep his career alive based on blocking prowess alone.

Dalvin Cook (Jets, 28)

2023 Salary: $7M (+incentives)
2024 Valuation: $4.3M (1 year, $4.3M)

It was the offseason of Dalvin, and the inseason of not Dalvin. Cook needs to shave a few million off of the asking price and find an offensive line this spring.

POTENTIAL FREE AGENT ADDITIONS

Alvin Kamara (Saints, 28)

2 years, $36.8M remaining
2024 Valuation: $4.6M (2 years, $9.25M)

Kamara is still a nice piece to the Saints' puzzle, and Derek Carr is fully guaranteed through 2024, but as per usual, New Orleans will need to find cap space in the coming months. A rip it up and start over could very much be in the cards here.

Aaron Jones (Packers, 28)

1 year, $12M remaining
2024 Valuation: $5.2M (1 year, $5.2M)

Jones' midseason injury probably means the last of him in a Packers' uniform. He'll likely need to settle for a show-me contract with a bunch of attainable incentives, but he can certainly still help a good team in the right situation.

The 2023-24 season is less than a month old, but Tyrese Maxey of the Philadelphia 76ers is already one of the league’s breakout stars. When things could have gotten messy for the Sixers, as the James Harden drama swirled, Maxey stepped up to give Joel Embiid a new star-level running mate.

There’s little thought that Maxey might be a flash in the pan. He’s shown the ability to more than a third- or fourth-banana previously. It’s only now that Maxey is getting the usage to show he can be an All-Star (and maybe more!) himself.

That leaves the 76ers in an interesting spot. Daryl Morey delayed signing Maxey to a lucrative rookie scale contract extension this past offseason. The reason for that made sense. Philadelphia will still control the summertime process, by making Maxey a restricted free agent. And the team can use his smallish cap hold to maximize their cap space, while still giving Maxey the contract he earns.

All of that makes sense. Maxey transferred a bit of risk to himself by playing out his rookie scale deal, but he’d be set to cash in even bigger if he had a great year.

And having a great year is exactly what Maxey is poised to do.

Now, some of that risk (but not too much) has flipped back towards Philadelphia. Let’s break it all down!

Signing a Rookie Scale Extension this season

We’re only including this to note that Tyrese Maxey is no longer extension-eligible. The deadline for players to sign rookie scale extension was back on October 23.

That means Maxey is now destined for free agency this coming summer. Barring some unforeseen disaster, Philadelphia will issue Maxey a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620. That’s a bump up from the $6,259,588 qualifying offer Maxey was set to get. The reason for this is that Maxey will assuredly meet starter criteria and will earn the larger qualifying offer.

In reality, none of that really matters, beyond the Sixers tendering Maxey a qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. He’s not signing the qualifying offer.

What does matter is Maxey’s cap hold. That figure will be $13,031,760. That’s what will sit on the Sixers books and that’s what will drive Philadelphia’s offseason.

Finally, for what’s it now worth, before 2023 free agency/extension season opened we projected Maxey to sign a five-year, 25% of the cap maximum extension. Nothing has changed to make anyone believe Maxey will make less than that amount, so let’s use that as our starting point.

Re-signing with the 76ers on a 25% Maximum Contract

As we said above, we projected Tyrese Maxey would sign a five-year rookie scale extension worth 25% of the cap. This was before Daryl Morey unveiled his cap space plan. But that deal should still be on the table, once Philadelphia uses up their cap space. Here’s what that contract projects to look like for Maxey:

• 2024-25: $35,500,000
• 2025-26: $38,340,000
• 2026-27: $41,180,000
• 2027-28: $44,020,000
• 2028-29: $46,860,000
• Total: five years, $205,900,000

That’s a five-year max deal at 25% of the projected $142 million cap for 2024-25. It includes the maximum 8% raises for Maxey, as well.

That’s right at where we projected Maxey on an extension (with a minor adjustment, as the projected cap has come in lower than originally anticipated).

But…Maxey might be poised to cash in even bigger, if he keeps up his torrid pace.

Re-signing with the 76ers on a 30% Maximum Contract

If Tyrese Maxey makes an All-NBA team, he would qualify for Designated Player status. That would make him eligible to jump to a 30% of the cap maximum. That would look like this:

• 2024-25: $42,600,000
• 2025-26: $46,008,000
• 2026-27: $49,416,000
• 2027-28: $52,824,000
• 2028-29: $56,232,000
• Total: five years, $247,080,000

That’s a 30% of the cap maximum contract with 8% raises. That’s a difference of $7.1 million in first-year salary and about $41 million in total salary over the life of the deal.

This is big, because Maxey likely would never have received Designated Player language in a rookie scale extension. He hadn’t sniffed an All-Star selection, let alone All-NBA selection. Now? Maxey looks like an All-Star lock, and there aren’t six guards playing better than he is in the NBA through the first few weeks of the season.

Note: If Maxey qualifies for Designated Player status by making All-NBA this season (he could also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, but neither are likely), he doesn’t have to automatically get the full 30%. He’s simply eligible to get up to that much. Maxey and Philadelphia could negotiate for anything up to 30%. But history tells us that if a player is eligible for it, they’re going to get the 30% max.

Signing with another team as a free agent

If things were to get sideways between Tyrese Maxey and the Philadelphia 76ers, he could choose to leave town. In that case, it doesn’t matter if Maxey qualifies for Designated Player status or not. You can only get a Designated Player deal from the team that drafts you, or if you were acquired while still on your rookie contract.

Here’s the maximum deal Maxey could fetch from a rival team as a free agent:

• 2024-25: $35,500,000
• 2025-26: $37,275,000
• 2026-27: $39,050,000
• 2027-28: $40,825,000
• Total: four years, $190,848,000

That’s a four-year, 25% of the cap max with the max allowable 5% raises. As you can see, Maxey would make about $6.4 million less by leaving the 76ers, even on the comparable 25% starting salaries over four years. Adding in the fifth year, which Maxey can only get from Philadelphia, is where the real difference in total salary comes in.

The Philadelphia 76ers Cap Situation

As we’ve noted several times, Philadelphia didn’t extend Tyrese Maxey, because they plan to use cap space this summer. There are a few paths the Sixers can take with their cap flexibility:

Clearing the decks

In this scenario, the 76ers go about as scorched earth as they can with the roster and leave only Joel Embiid’s contract and Tyrese Maxey’s cap holds on the books:

• Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
• Tyrese Maxey (cap hold): $13,031,760
• Total cap space available: $65,864,062

This would mean Philadelphia would salary-dump Jaden Springer’s contract onto someone, waive Paul Reed (or salary-dump him, should his contract become fully guaranteed), renounce all of their free agents and trade away their 2024 first-round draft pick (or select a draft-and-stash player).

In this situation, the 76ers would have enough cap space to sign a 10+ Years of Service free agent at the projected max of $49,700,000, with just over $16 million in remaining cap space. Philadelphia would also have the Room Exception available, which projects to be just over $8 million.

So, let’s say the 76ers use all of their available cap space, and then they re-sign Maxey to a 30% of the cap max, they could be looking at the following:

• Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
• Max Free Agent: $49,700,000
• Tyrese Maxey: $42,600,000
• Leftover Cap Space Free Agent: $16,164,062
• Room Exception Free Agent: $8,063,000
• Nine Veteran Minimum Free Agents: $18,977,157
• Total salary: $186,920,157

That would leave the 76ers over the Luxury Tax by $14,353,157 and over the Tax Apron by $6,991,157.

As incredible (and rare!) as it would be, that’s how a team can go from using cap space to deep into the luxury tax in the same summer.

Retaining some talent

In this scenario, the 76ers don’t clear the decks. They keep the following on the books:

• Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
• De’Anthony Melton (cap hold): $15,200,000
• Tyrese Maxey (cap hold): $13,031,760
• Paul Reed: $7,723,000
• Jaden Springer: $4,018,363
• 2024 First Round Pick (projected at 28): $2,668,715
• Total cap space available: $40,929,280

This seems a bit more realistic. Philadelphia retains the ability to re-sign Maxey and Melton, while keeping Reed and Springer (a regular rotation guy and someone Nick Nurse seems to like) in the fold. And they use their draft pick to add some cost-controlled back-end roster talent.

Let’s say Philadelphia uses every bit of that cap space to sign one player, here’s what their books could look like:

• Joel Embiid: $51,415,938
• Tyrese Maxey: $42,600,000
• Free Agent Signing: $40,929,280
• De’Anthony Melton: $15,200,000 (same as his cap hold for simplicity’s sake)
• Room Exception Free Agent: $8,063,000
• Paul Reed: $7,723,000
• Jaden Springer: $4,018,363
• 2024 First Round Pick (projected at 28): $2,668,715
• Six Veteran Minimum Free Agents: $12,651,438
• Total salary: $185,269,734

This would result in the 76ers being $12,702,734 over the Luxury Tax and $5,340,734 over the Tax Apron.

Of course, in both scenarios presented above, if Tyrese Maxey doesn’t qualify for the 30% max salary, he’ll come in at $35.5 million vs $46.7 million. That lops off $7.1 million off either tax bill. Even then, Philadelphia still goes from being a cap space team to a tax team in the same summer.

Now, the Sixers could further cut the tax bill down by signing their two 2024 second-round picks to a deal that would start at about $1.2 million. That would shave roughly $2 million more off the tax bill.

Summary

Tyrese Maxey is going to get paid this summer. He’s either getting a 25% of the cap maximum contract or a 30% of the cap maximum contract. ESPN’s Bobby Marks noted that Maxey would be the first player in history to qualify for a Designated Player deal when coming off their rookie scale contract that didn’t sign an extension. That’s pretty remarkable, even considering the Sixers cap space aspirations.

Normally, we predict what a player will sign for, or suggest an alternative structure, at that point of a Next Contract analysis. There’s no need here. Maxey is going to re-sign with Philadelphia, and it will either be for the projected $35.5 million first-year salary or the $42.6 million first-year salary.

The real difference will come with how deep into the tax the 76ers go. It’s extremely rare for a team to use both cap space and end up as a taxpayer in the same season. You have to have a player with a small enough cap hold to use cap space, while also knowing that same player is also going to sign a max deal.

And that’s exactly where the Sixers are.

Even if Daryl Morey uses some of next season’s flexibility in a form of “pre-agency”, the math doesn’t really change. Maxey is still getting a max deal, whether the Philadelphia 76ers use their cap space now, or in July. And, if they use that space now, they could stay over the cap to retain some additional free agents.

Almost any path leaves the Sixers as a very expensive, somewhat top-heavy team. But they should have enough depth to remain title contenders for the remainder of Joel Embiid’s contract, and into the years when Philadelphia transitions to become Tyrese Maxey’s team.

We'll begin to look ahead at NFL players eyeing new contracts with a dive into QBs Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, & Joshua Dobbs.

Jared Goff (Lions, 29)

The former #1 overall pick back in 2016 will be entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn a non-guaranteed $26.6M (including a $5M roster bonus due March 14th). Goff and this Lions system appear to be a match made in heaven, so it seems a lock that the two sides will hammer out a multi-year guarantee extension this spring. But to what tune?

After a lackluster 2021 campaign in Detroit (91.5 rating), Goff has now put together back to back seasons that prove he’s worth the price of admission. At the time of this piece, PFF has him rated #3 among all QBs, while his 99.1 QBR currently ranks 9th. Contractually speaking, Goff’s numbers (and career arch) line up best with Kirk Cousins, who will also be in the market for a new contract in the coming months. What does this mean financially? If the top of the QB market is seeking $50M+, Cousins and Goff are most likely mathematically falling into the $40M per year range.

Jared Goff’s current contract was signed at the start of the 2019 season. His $33.5M average annual salary represented 17.8% of the league salary cap at the time. If Detroit were to sign him to a contract extension right now (not a horrible idea by the way), 17.8% of the current cap calculates to almost exactly $40M per year. Should the cap rise to $245M next March, his assumed price could rise to almost $44M per year. Let’s not overthink this and split the difference. 

PREDICTION:
The Lions extend Goff at 5 new years, $210,000,000 new money, $168M practically guaranteed

Kirk Cousins (Vikings, 35)

Torn achilles & ridiculous Josh Dobbs story aside, Cousins returning to the Vikings on a last minute extension should still be the betting odds favorite by a lot. He’s a top tier regular season QB that hasn’t found the code to get it done in the postseason just yet. There are dozens of great QBs in NFL history that have the same resume attached to them. The Vikings offensive line, and a weapon due of Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison for the next 3-4 seasons is (arguably) as good a situation as he’ll be able to find around the league this March. So how does Minnesota keep him around?

Remember, a franchise tag won’t be plausible this time, so Minnesota will need to work quickly this January/February to lock something in, or risk having to bid against teams such as Atlanta, Tampa, Green Bay, etc.. who may have immediate interest. Statistically, Cousins’ last 5 seasons have been his best. He appears to have settled into exactly the type of player he needs to be, and for the most part, the Vikings have successfully built an offense to suit him.

Cousins joined Minnesota back in 2018 on a 3 year, $84M fully guaranteed free agent contract. He then signed a 2 year, $66M fully guaranteed extension, and a 1 year, $35M fully guaranteed extension through 2023. If we pull out these average salaries and compare them to the respective league salary cap at the time, we’re talking about 15-16% allocation here. If we assume a $245M league salary cap for 2024, 16% would afford us a $39.2M average salary for Cousins, which also just happens to be his exact valuation in our system, currently speaking.

Is it enough to bring him back? Honestly, before the Achilles injury, that answer would have been a hard and fast no. But a 35-year–old suffering an injury of this magnitude has to come with some reservation. We’ll bump the price slightly to round it off nicely.

PREDICTION:
The Vikings retain Cousins at 3 new years, $120,000,000 new money, $80M fully guaranteed

Josh Dobbs (Vikings, 28)

To say that Dobbs’ 2023 has been wild is an understatement. He’ll never be one of the more physically gifted QBs in the league, but the mental aptitude to be able to accomplish what he’s already done in 10 weeks is second to none right now. Have we seen enough to ensure that Dobbs will be a starting QB in Week 1 of the 2024 season? No.

If anything, Dobbs' ability to manage a passing game, scramble when needed, and pick up an offense on the fly is reminiscent of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who brought his own kind of “relief pitcher” magic to the game for many years. The BIlls attempted to test fate on Fitzpatrick with a 6 year, $59M in-season extension back in 2011, but it backfired on them almost immediately. 

So what does the future hold for a player like Dobbs financially speaking? It’s not reckless to say that a contending team may look at what he’s done this Fall as a bonafide insurance policy for their current star QB, and make him the highest paid backup in all of football. If we’re not counting Ryan Tannehill (who was just recently handed the backup role), that award currently goes to Mitchell Trubisky in Pittsburgh, & Jacoby Brissett in Washington, each of whom have secured $8M this season (49 snaps, 0 snaps respectively). That $8M against a $224.8M league salary cap represents 3.5%. If we assume $245M in 2024, a top-tier backup QB payout (base pay) should come in at around $8.5M, with plenty of incentives built in based on playing time, wins, playoffs, etc…to nearly double that figure when it’s all said and done.

PREDICTION:
The Vikings retain Dobbs at 2 new years, $18,000,000 new money, $9M fully guaranteed.

The 2023 NBA offseason is long behind us. Extension season wrapped up over a week ago. Early trade season doesn’t open for over a month, with full trade season opening in mid-January.

That means it’s time to take an initial look at where each of the NBA’s 30 teams project to land as far as spending power for the 2024 offseason. Of course, these projections will change as teams make trades, sign extensions and the like throughout this season. However, it’s still good to have a grounding of where teams stand today.

A few notes:

• We are using the NBA’s official projections for the salary cap and tax lines. Some are projecting greater growth than the 4.4% represented here, but we will always use the official projections from the league.

• Salary Cap of $142,000,000

• Luxury Tax of $172,567,000

• Tax Apron of $179,929,000

• Second Apron of $190,837,000

• Max salary tiers grow with the cap. They are as follows:

• 0-6 Years of Service: $35,500,000

• 7-9 Years of Service: $42,600,000

• 10+ Years of Service: $49,700,000

• A projection has been made on all 2024-25 player and team options. Similarly, a projection was made on all partial and non-guaranteed contracts. And, finally, a projection made on renounce free agents has also been made for cap space teams.

• 2024 NBA Draft picks were based on ESPN’s BPI forecast for expected final record. All conditions on picks owned and owed were then reflected to determine the draft order and the subsequent cap holds.

• No trades, extensions or signings have been projected. Essentially, rosters are as they stand at the time of publication.

With the advent of the new CBA, the landscape has changed around the NBA. There used to be three basic categories of teams each summer: Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams. Each season there would also be a handful of “swing” teams that could fall in one bucket or another.

In this new world, we have a fourth category: Second Apron teams. These are the NBA’s most expensive teams that the new CBA was largely designed to punish.

Under the new CBA, if you are at or over the Second Apron, you lose access to the Taxpayer MLE. In addition, the trade rules tighten up for these teams. Salary-matching in trades is limited to 100%, they aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries together in trades, they can’t sign-and-trade a player way (in addition to being unable to acquire a player via sign-and-trade) and they won’t be able to use TPEs.

Essentially, Second Apron teams are going to limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take back the same money as they send out (or less), signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum salaries.

With all that said, here is the projected spending power for each NBA team in 2024 free agency!

Cap Space Teams (3)

1. Orlando Magic: $40.6 million

2. Philadelphia 76ers: $39.8 million

3. Detroit Pistons: $38.5 million

This is the smallest group of teams we can confidently project to have cap space in a decade of doing this exercise. As more and more teams prioritize extensions and trades, cap space (and the number of impact free agents) has dried up. Still, as we write every time we talk about cap space, having this kind of room doesn’t just mean signing free agents. Cap space can also be used to facilitate trades, either for yourself or others.

Orlando tops our projections by virtue of having a roster full of players on rookie scale contracts and team-friendly extensions. This includes all of the Magic’s best players. In the recent past, Orlando has eschewed cap space to re-sign or extend their own players. That seems poised to change, as the Magic are finally in position to really push the rebuild forward with an impact addition or two. And they need to do that before they have to start extending players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero in coming years.

The Sixers have been bandied about as having double-max cap space and the like for months now, but that’s never really been a thing. Sure, Philadelphia could clear the decks and have only Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey (via his cap hold) on the books. That could create about $65.8 million in cap space, which is still well short of double-max space. Instead, a more conservative approach that sees the 76ers keeping De’Anthony Melton’s cap hold, along with Paul Reed, on the books seems likely. Also, Daryl Morey recently said he would like to spend some of this flexibility early, so don’t rule out Philadelphia taking on money in trades in this season in a form of “pre-agency”.

The Pistons have become an annual staple in this spot. Some years, Detroit has used space to chase veteran free agents. Other years, Troy Weaver has used his cap space to eat contracts and collect some assets. This year’s approach will probably be determined by how this season goes for the Pistons. If they show progress akin to Orlando, Detroit will probably look to add players. If not, another year of renting out cap space to pick up draft picks could be coming. One thing to keep in mind: 2024 is the final summer before a presumably max or near-max extension will be on the books for Cade Cunningham. We’re getting down to “spend it while you can” time for the Pistons.

Cap Space – Non-Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (6)

1. Charlotte Hornets

2. Houston Rockets

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

4. San Antonio Spurs

5. Utah Jazz

6. Washington Wizards

This is a pretty large group of swing teams. Some of them are on their way up. Others are just starting the rebuilding process. For a handful, they can create meaningful cap space. For the rest, they are more likely to stay over the cap. It’s really a decision of creating spending power vs retaining your own players.

Charlotte is in a bit of a weird spot. They have some big money coming off the books for Gordon Hayward, which could create a good amount of cap space. Yet, for another season, the Miles Bridges question hangs over this team. He signed the qualifying offer, so Bridges will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. If the Hornets move on from all of their free agents, they can reasonably create about $21.8 million in cap space. If they re-sign Hayward or Bridges, they’ll be a Non-Taxpayer MLE team.

The Rockets spent a good deal of money in free agency last summer. Despite that, they could do the same this summer. A handful of the contracts Houston signed players to are non-guaranteed. That means the team could create up to $26 million in space. But that would mean moving on from several rotation players. That amount of cap space is right on the tipping point of being able to replace those players in a meaningful way. Because of that, we’re projecting the Rockets to stay over the cap for now.

The Thunder finally went under the cap last offseason. They used that space to act as a clearing house for some contracts, in exchange for even more draft picks. This summer could go differently. Oklahoma City could create in the range of $20 million of space. But that would mean moving on from a few valuable players the Thunder have been developing. Instead, look for OKC to stay over the cap and maybe use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to bring in a value signing.

As of this writing, San Antonio projects to have the first overall pick in the draft. If Victor Wembanyama and the other young Spurs keep developing so rapidly, that projection will probably change. Running with it for now, that puts the Spurs in range of about $18-to-$20 million in cap space this summer. If they were to re-sign Doug McDermott, or even one of their lesser free agents, then San Antonio would stay over the cap.

Utah is in a fun spot. They could create up to $36 million in cap space. Or they could stay over the cap and retain a few of their own free agents. Given that their own free agents will probably command relatively reasonable contracts, look for the Jazz to go the cap space route…kind of. The guess here is that Utah will create cap space, but will end up using a large chunk of it to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen’s contract. Then, whatever is left over, plus the Room Exception, can be used to re-sign their own free agents or to acquire other players.

The Wizards are in Year 1 of their teardown. They took on Jordan Poole’s contract, but that came through the chained-together transactions where they shed Bradley Beal’s contract. Washington also re-signed Kyle Kuzma and extended Deni Avdija, but those were value contracts. If the Wizards want, they can create about $24.6 million in cap space. That would mean seeing all of their free agents leave town, but those guys don’t seem long for D.C. anyway. If Washington chooses to keep Tyus Jones’ cap hold on the books, they’ll be over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer MLE Teams (4)

This is usually the largest group of teams we have, and it may well still end up that way. But for now, we can confidently project only four teams to be in range of using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

1. Brooklyn Nets

2. Indiana Pacers

3. New York Knicks

4. Sacramento Kings

All four of these teams have two things in common. They look to have only a few roster spots to fill and they have plenty of clearance under the Tax Apron. That puts all of these teams in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into any hard cap issues.

In addition, unlike the swing teams, there isn’t a reasonable path to cap space for any of these teams. Indiana would be the closest, but they’d be punting on some very valuable players to create cap space. That seems highly unlikely.

Non-Taxpayer MLE – Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (6)

This group is close to tripping into the Luxury Tax, or even over the Tax Apron. Most of that is related to pending free agents that these teams could re-sign. And for a handful, they are close enough to the Tax Apron, that the hard cap would become an issue if they used the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

1. Atlanta Hawks

2. Chicago Bulls

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

4. Miami Heat

5. New Orleans Pelicans

6. Toronto Raptors

The Hawks, Bulls, Cavaliers, Heat and Pelicans are all going to have free agent decisions to make. If they re-sign, or extend, those players to expected-value contracts, they’ll be butting up against the tax or even the tax apron. That will take them out of range of using the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Raptors are in a very different spot. Toronto could conceivably hit a major reset and create up to a whopping $71 million in cap space. But that would mean seeing players like Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. walk away for nothing. That seems unlikely, but Toronto has lost Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet in free agency over the last few offseasons. We’re going to be conservative and suggest that if Masai Ujiri and the Raptors believe they are losing those guys this summer, they’ll trade them for other players (and some longer-term salary) before losing them for nothing.

Taxpayer MLE Teams (2)

The addition of the Second Apron has created a smaller-than-usual window for teams to be in position to use the Taxpayer MLE, but without creating issues against the Second Apron hard cap.

1. Dallas Mavericks

2. Portland Trail Blazers

The Mavericks project to be around $16 million under the Second Apron, but they also only have two roster spots to fill. That leaves enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE to add a player, with enough wiggle room to stay under the hard cap that would be created at the Second Apron.

It might be a surprise to see the rebuilding Trail Blazers in this spot, but they took on a good amount of salary in the Damian Lillard trade, and the subsequent Jrue Holiday trade. Portland also re-signed Jerami Grant to a big contract too. As it stands, the Blazers sit just over the Luxury Tax line. That won’t be a thing, as a rebuilding team can’t pay the tax. But it will limit what kind of spending power Portland has this summer. Instead of free agent signings, look for the Trail Blazers to keep retooling their roster through trades.

Second Apron Teams (9)

By far, this is our largest group of teams for 2024 offseason projections. This is a direct result of two things. First, the Second Apron exists now, and some teams are over or up against it. Second, several teams took the “gap year” (or maybe better put the “get your books in order year”) to load up. That’s got us in a spot where roughly one-third of the league will be unable to add a free agent for more than the minimum this summer.

1. Boston Celtics

2. Denver Nuggets

3. Golden State Warriors

4. LA Clippers

5. Los Angeles Lakers

6. Memphis Grizzlies

7. Milwaukee Bucks

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

9. Phoenix Suns

All nine of these teams are already over or right up against the Second Apron. Or they will be once they re-sign some key free agents. From there, this group of nine will be limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take in similar (but not more) money, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Yes, it's the Winter of Ohtani (arm injury withstanding), but the MLB offseason offers plenty of other storylines worth gravitating toward in the coming weeks. Our look at a few notable headlines, with a couple of contract predictions mixed in.

The Winter of Ohtani

Where? How Big? Could it have been bigger? We’ve done plenty of work on this one for the past 18 months so let’s just summarize this time around. Baseball contracts have almost never been “conditional”. If a great player gets to the open market, there will always be at least one team willing to go above and beyond to land him. An arm injury for the 29-year-old is a major red flag, but not enough of one to reduce his value this winter. While the Giants, Cubs, Mets, etc… are all (obviously) interested, the Dodgers told us out loud that they were dialing back the 2022 offseason in order to align themselves for a move this winter. Let’s just listen to them and move on. 12 years, $504M, Dodgers.

An International Market Reset

Teams have tempered initial contracts for international players (especially pitchers) to this point. Kodai Senga (5 years, $75M) & Masataka Yoshida (5 years, $90M) are the current benchmarks in this regard. But early buzz out of front offices leads us to believe that caution will be thrown out of the window when it comes to Japanese pitching phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has now won 3 consecutive Sawamura awards (Cy Young equivalent), and just turned 25 a few months ago. Early reports have us throwing out a previous projection (based on math), and bringing Yamamoto’s new floor up to 8 years, $200M. Toss in a bidding war, and the cash in the banana stand may need to come out as well. 8 years, $240M, Mets.

A Domestic Starting Pitcher Market

NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell, NLCS starter Aaron Nola, World Series starter Jordan Montgomery, future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw plus the likes of Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, & Marcus Stroman make for a very strong class this winter. Every one of these names could (should) secure a contract averaging at or above $20M per year.

VIEW ALL STARTING PITCHER FREE AGENTS

A Questionable Positional Market

Cody Bellinger hitting the open market again this year sort of feels like Kris Bryant hitting the open market a few winters ago. Great talent, but which version of him are we supposed to believe/value/pay? Bryant scored $182M from the Rockies. The 28-year-old is a $22M player in our system, but how many years guaranteed will a team be willing to go? The Giants need a win this winter. 8 years, $190M, Giants.

Matt Chapman was an All-MLB hitter for a few months in 2023. Then he wasn’t. He’s an All-MLB defensive 3rd baseman every time he puts the uniform on. A little inconsistency never stopped MLB Free Agency from overpaying. 6 years, $124M, Cubs.

Teoscar Hernandez is an upper level MLB power hitter - just not in Seattle. The Mariners proved they agreed by not slapping a Qualifying Offer on him this week. A down year won’t stop another market from viewing Hernandez as their version of Kyle Schwarber. 5 years, $90M, Red Sox.

VIEW ALL POSITIONAL FREE AGENTS

A New Top Closer

After a rocky 2022, Hader rounded back into elite form heading toward free agency for the first time. Edwin Diaz put a new flag in the reliever market ground this winter, penning a $20.4M per year, $102M total value contract in NY. Will Hader approach or surpass these numbers? Mathematically he’s a $17.5M player in our system, but common sense and a bidding war tells us that Diaz’ number is in jeopardy here - especially when the World Champs are already calling. 5 years, $105M, Rangers.

VIEW ALL RELIEF PITCHER FREE AGENTS

From Playoffs to Purgatory

Every year, a few MLB teams sneak into the postseason, bow out, then decide to completely change course and take the next year off financially. It’s the nature of a beast that doesn’t require spending on an annual basis.

So which franchises are candidates to do so in 2024?

The Brewers seem an early favorite in the clubhouse, with a potential season-long injury to starter Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes’ name a fixture on the trade block, a manager who just left for their division rival, and a large group of core players heading into the expensive portion of their arbitration process.

Speaking of, Tampa Bay has been the model of how to win with savvy offseason moves, a revolving door at every position, incredible scouting, even better in-house development, and a bottom third payroll to boot. Is that window closing? Major injuries to the rotation, and a sure fire trade candidate in Tyler Glasnow could be a tell-tale sign that Tampa simply doesn’t have the roster to compete going forward - nor the financial backing to quickly fix it on the fly. Then again, they may just be a few creative trades away from another 90 wins next season.

VIEW 2023 MLB PAYROLLS
NOTABLE TRADE CANDIDATES

This year’s crop includes 13 first time winners two of whom were rookies (Volpe, Doyle), & another (Moreno) who was playing out his first full season. The Rangers, Blue Jays & Cubs led the way with three players each, while the Guardians, Diamondbacks, & Padres were each represented with two honors.

Pitcher

2023 was a bounceback year as a whole for Berrios, who has 5 years, $101M remaining in his contract in Toronto, but will have the chance to opt out after 3 years, $53M. Wheeler remains one of the best bang for buck free agent signings in recent baseball history, and is entering a contract year with the Phillies in 2024 (1 year, $23.5M remaining). He’s a blockbuster extension candidate this winter.

AL: Jose Berrios (TOR, $15M, 29th)
NL: Zack Wheeler (PHI, $24.5M, 8th)

Catcher

A couple of World Series catchers pick up their first Gold Gloves together this offseason with prospering financial futures ahead of them. For Heim, he’ll enter the arbitration process for the first time this winter (projected to earn $3.4M for 2024). Moreno just completed his first full season, putting him in-line for 5 more seasons of team control. He’s near the top of the early extension candidate list in the coming weeks.

AL: Jonah Heim (TEX, $745k, 44th)
NL: Gabriel Moreno (ARI, $722k, 58th)

1st Base

Lowe picks up his first Gold Glove this fall, despite a bit of a step back season at the plate. His 2nd of 4 arbitration seasons should score him a more than double raise ($8.8M) from his 2023 compensation. Walker bags his second consecutive Gold Glove in Arizona, and is entering his final year of team control in 2024 (projected $12M salary).

AL: Nate Lowe (TEX, $4M, 25th)
NL: Christian Walker (ARI, $6.5M, 16th)

2nd Base

Gimenez didn’t quite replicate the out of nowhere power season he posted in 2022, but he proved once again that there’s a legitimate bat to go with All-World middle infield defense. He’ll enter Year 2 of a 7 year, $106.5M contract next season. Hoerner signed a 3 year, $35M extension prior to the season that bought out his final two years of arbitration plus one free agent season. With a near 5 WAR to go along with Gold Glove worthy defense each of the past two seasons, he’s offering the Cubs strong value.

AL: Andres Gimenez (CLE, $5M, 14th)
NL: Nico Hoerner (CHC, $2.5M, 19th)

Shortstop

Volpe becomes the first Yankees rookie ever to win a Gold Glove, but it’s actually back to back seasons that a rookie wins the AL Shortstop honor (Jeremy Pena, HOU). Add in 23 doubles, 21 homers, and a 3.15 WAR and it’s easy to be excited about Volpe’s future in the Bronx. Swanson’s second Gold Glove caps a middle infield sweep for the Cubs (Hoerner, 2B), and it should further quiet any remaining doubters who scoffed at his 7 year, $177M free agent deal in Chicago. 

AL: Anthony Volpe (NYY, $720k, 90th)
NL: Dansby Swanson (CHC, $20M, 9th)

3rd Base

While his offensive production fell off of a cliff around midseason, Chapman continues to be touted as one of the best defensive third baseman in the game. This alone should help him secure a hefty bag on the open market this winter. Hayes  put together a career year across the board in Pittsburgh, and will enter Year 3 of an 8 year, $70M contract with the Pirates. His 2024 compensation actually drops down to $7M per season for the next 4 years, as the contract was heavily frontloaded. 

AL: Matt Chapman (TOR, $12M, 13th)
NL: Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, $10M, 15th)

Left Field

Kwan has now posted two basically identical seasons to being his MLB, at the plate, on the base paths, and with his glove. The 2-time Gold Glover still holds 4 years of team control, and is a strong early extension candidate this winter. Happ (like Nico Hoerner), signed a 3 year extension prior to the start of the season, then turned in a near career year that was capped off with a Gold Glove honor. He was a little more boom or bust at the plate this season, but should remain a fixture in the middle of the Cubs lineup at a reasonable $20M, $20M, & $18M respectively through 2026.

AL: Steven Kwan (CLE, $727k, 32nd)
NL: Ian Happ (CHC, $13.8M, 7th)

Center Field

Toronto signed Kiermaier to take the CF duties away from injury-prone George Springer. It clearly worked. It’s GG number 4 for the 33 year old, who should find a similar contract on the open market this winter. Doyle made his MLB debut in late April, and while the bat has yet to come around - he was a defensive marvel in Year 1 for the Rockies. He’s the 6th rookie outfielder to win a Gold Glove.

AL: Kevin Kiermaier (TOR, $9M, 9th)
NL: Brenton Doyle (COL, $720k, 40th)

Right Field

Garcia’s power wasn’t just a problem for opposing teams at the plate. His cannon arm led to 11 outfield assists in 2023, factoring into quite a resume for his first go around at arbitration this winter. He projects to a near $6M salary for 2024. Tatis Jr. appears to be the type of player who can play anywhere on the field, and his first season in Right Field is just another example. He’ll earn $11M next season on what should have been his final go around in arbitration (strong value), then it’s 10 years, $306M from there out.

AL: Adolis Garcia (TEX, $747k, 32nd)
NL: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD, $5.6M, 22nd)

Utility

Dubon put it all together this year, making an impact at the plate (130 hits, 26 doubles, 2.7 WAR), while saving runs at nearly every defensive position on the field for Houston. He enters Year 2 of 4 arbitration seasons this spring, projected to earn around $3M for his efforts. Kim was a do-it-all infielder for San Diego, making most of his impact as a second baseman in 2023. He also bagged a career high 17 HRs at the plate, compiling an outstanding 5.76 WAR for the season. He’ll earn $7M in 2024, with a mutual opt-out available thereafter.

AL: Mauricio Dubon (HOU, $1.4M)
NL: Ha-seong Kim (SD, $7M)