Michael GinnittiNovember 01, 2023

The 2023 NFL Trade Deadline didn't quite meet the "rumored" expectations, but when has an NFL Trade Deadline ever? With that said, plenty of notable names were on the move this past week. Spotrac details every player that has been traded during the 2023 season, including financial ramifications and future thoughts for each.

Rasul Douglas (CB, 29)

Buffalo Acquires: Douglas & a 2024 5th round pick
Green Bay Acquires: 2024 3rd round pick

Douglas joins a DB needy Bills organization, due in large part to a season-ending Achilles injury to Tre'Davious White. He’ll account for just $838,235 of cap/cash this year, with a $9M veritable “option” in place for 2024. There’s a $2M roster bonus due March 15th, so Buffalo will need to make an early decision on his future. Green Bay clears $6.5M of 2024 cap space per this move.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, 24)

Detroit Acquires: Peoples-Jones
Cleveland Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

DPJ caught 59 passes for nearly 800 yards in 2022, and seemed to be a clear #2 option for Cleveland going forward. Instead, he was written almost entirely out of the offense this season, making the change of scenery to an explosive Detroit unit exciting for all parties. The Browns get out of more than $1.5M from his expiring contract, while the Lions now carry 5 very capable receivers at a combined $11M. Peoples-Jones is a $4M per year WR in our system right now.

Chase Young (DE, 24)

San Francisco Acquires: Young
Washington Acquires: 2024 3rd Round Pick (compensatory)

The Commanders declined Young’s $17.4M 5th-year option last May, putting him on an expiring contract in 2023. San Francisco snags him with $2.95M left the rest of the way, giving up a late 3rd round pick. A franchise tag for Young next March is likely to come in at over $22M, putting him in position to hit the open market. If he signs elsewhere, the Niners should recoup a 3rd round pick in the compensatory program, making this a veritable cash trade. Missed time and a lack of consistent production holds his current valuation at around the $13M per year mark.

Ezra Cleveland (G, 25)

Jacksonville Acquires: Cleveland
Minnesota Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

The Vikings weren’t expected to re-sign Cleveland next March, so grabbing a little draft capital now made some sense. He started 6 games for the VIkings this year (47 in 3 ½ seasons), so this is more than just a “depth” addition for the Jags, who are looking to make a serious push in the AFC. Jacksonville picks up Cleveland at $1.6M for the rest of 2023, who, as a versatile lineman, could be seeking a deal around $10M per year in free agency.

Joshua Dobbs (QB, 28)

Minnesota Acquires: Dobbs, 2024 7th round pick
Arizona Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

Dobbs played the good soldier role in Arizona for 8 weeks, and now is being asked to do so for some of the remaining 10 in Minnesota. The Vikings pick up a competent QB1 at just $833,333 to finish out the season. Can the pending UFA now turn this type of attention into a Taylor Heinicke type deal?

Montez Sweat (DE, 27)

Chicago Acquires: Sweat
Washington Acquires: 2024 2nd round pick

Sweat leaves a crowded Commanders D-Line to join Chicago as a much needed presence on theirs. It remains to be seen if an extension has been discussed as part of this deal, as a 2nd round pick for a rental player is a steep price to pay (even for the Bears). Sweat brings $6.3M of his 5th-year option salary along with him to Chicago, who can tag the 27 year old at around $22M next year to keep him in the fold. He projects to a 4 year, $102M extension in our system right now.

Leonard Williams (DE, 29)

Seattle Acquires: Williams
New York Acquires: 2024 2nd round pick, 2025 5th round pick

Williams was a trade candidate for much of last offseason, so it comes as little surprise that the D-Lineman was shipped out of NY as their season spiraled. He brings an expiring contract, on a prorated minimum salary ($647,222), as the Giants agreed to pay down the remainder of his $18M base salary for 2023. Williams will account for $10.6M on the Giants’ salary cap next season, and he projects to a 3 year, $45M contract in our system.

Kentavius Street (DE, 27)

Atlanta Acquires: Street, 2025 7th round pick
Philadelphia Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

A depth player for the Eagles, Street should have an opportunity to start on the Falcons’ defensive line from here out. The former 4th round pick brings a prorated minimum salary ($600,000) to Atlanta, so it’s low risk for everyone here.

Kevin Byard (S, 30)

Philadelphia Acquires: Byard
Tennessee Acquires: Terrell Edmunds (S), 2024 5th round pick, 2024 6th round pick

The Eagles wasted no time bolstering their Super Bowl contending roster, adding Byard to upgrade their secondary. Tennessee paid down his $11M to $2.4M for the Eagles to deal with, and Philly converted $888k of it into signing bonus to further help their salary cap table this season. None of Byard’s $14.1M in 2024 is guaranteed right now, though a $4M roster bonus is due in March. If he’s a fit for the Eagles, a restructured contract will most certainly be on the books before that bonus hits.

Mecole Hardman (WR/KR, 25)

Kansas City Acquires: Hardman, 2025 7th round pick
New York Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

Hardman returns home, hoping to add a spark to the Chiefs offense and return game for the final 10 weeks of the season. He brings a $1.4M cap hit the rest of the way that includes a $500,000 likely to be earned incentive (that is likely to be credited back in 2024).

Van Jefferson (WR, 27)

Atlanta Acquires: Jefferson, 2025 7th round pick
Los Angeles Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

The Rams couldn’t figure out a way to get Jefferson going in 3+ seasons, so Atlanta takes a later round swap flier on attempting to do just that down the stretch. At $993,174 the rest of the way, this is a small risk move on a player that has the ceiling to become Drake London’s WR2 with the right QB1. He’s a Parris Campbell (1 year, $4M) contract candidate next March for now.

Randy Gregory (LB, 30)

San Francisco Acquires: Gregory, 2024 7th round pick
Denver Acquires: 2024 6th round pick

Gregory forced his way out of Denver after 6 2022 games, & 7 2023 games. The Broncos wind up paying him out $26.3M for those efforts, sending him to San Francisco at just $840,000 for the remainder of the season. The remaining 3 years, $42M of this contract are pay-as-you-go, so the Niners will have the ability to move on next March at no cap cost to them.

Chase Claypool (WR, 25)

Miami Acquires: Claypool, 2025 7th round pick
Chicago Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

To say that acquiring Claypool for the #32 overall pick last year didn’t work out for Chicago is one of the bigger understatements of the year. In fact, getting any kind of return for him this past month seems like a small win for the Bears (who need any they can get right now). Miami acquires the former #49 overall pick at $2.3M remaining in the final year of his rookie contract. He’s a minimum contract player from here out right now.

J.C. Jackson (CB, 27)

New England Acquires: Jackson, 2025 7th round pick
Los Angeles Acquires: 2025 6th round pick

Jackson was the free agent breadwinner 18 months ago, signing a 5 year, $82.5M contract with the Chargers that included $40M guaranteed. LA agreed to pay off the remainder of Jackson’s 2023 salary per this trade, meaning a total of $38.4M shelled out for 7 games of action. The Patriots essentially take on a 1 year, $1.55M contract now, as the remaining 3 years, $42.5M is pay-as-you-go, and New England can walk away next March at no cap charge.

Cam Akers (RB, 24)

Minnesota Acquires: Akers, 2026 7th round pick
Los Angeles Acquires: 2026 6th round pick

The Vikings were hoping Alexander Mattison would run away with the leading role in 2023, but early returns said otherwise. Akers isn’t consistent, but he’s proven he can lead an offense at times when the situation fits. The former 2nd round pick is on an expiring contract, accounting for $1.3M of salary in Minnesota the rest of this season. Furthermore, Akers is scheduled for restricted free agency next March, as he was unable to accrue the necessary 6 games back in 2021 to accrue a full season. He’ll be cost-controlled for Minnesota for a full 18 months if they choose to keep him in the fold.

Keith SmithOctober 31, 2023

The James Harden trade saga (the 3.0 version, at least), is finally over. After months of back-and-forth drama, Harden will land with his desired team in the LA Clippers. In exchange, the Philadelphia 76ers will acquire a package of expiring salary and draft picks.

Because they are seemingly always involved in a trade that features draft picks, the Oklahoma City Thunder will help clear the path for the Clippers to trade an additional pick to the 76ers. The Thunder will pick up 2027 first-round pick swap rights, in exchange for sending a protected version of the 2026 Clippers first-round pick they own to the Sixers. (This is likely to end up in a “last favorable” situation of the 2026 picks Oklahoma City owns.)

But the big parts here are Harden to the Clippers, and the 76ers cleaning up their cap sheet to make a 2024 free agency run. Let’s dive in!

The trade details:

LA Clippers acquire
James Harden, P.J. Tucker, Filip Petrusev

Oklahoma City Thunder acquire
2027 first-round pick swap rights with the LA Clippers

Philadelphia 76ers acquire 
Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Kenyon Martin Jr., Marcus Morris Sr., two first-round picks (protected 2026 Clippers (via Thunder), 2028 Clippers), two second-round picks (2024 Pacers, Jazz or Cavs (TBD), 2029 Clippers) and a 2029 first-round pick swap

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: 

James Harden: $35.6 million

Filip Petrusev: $1,119,563 ($559,782 guaranteed)

P.J. Tucker: $11 million for 2023-24, 11.5 million player option for 2024-25

Total incoming 2023-24 salary: $47,774,063

Outgoing salary: 

Nicolas Batum: $11.7 million

Robert Covington: $11.7 million

Kenyon Martin Jr.: $1.9 million

Marcus Morris Sr.: $17.1 million

Total outgoing 2023-24 salary: $42,450,086

 

First, let’s break down how this will functionally work! The Clippers will acquire James Harden and P.J. Tucker and their combined $46,654,500 salaries as one bundle. Petrusev will be acquired as a single salary via the Minimum Salary Exception.

LA will send out the four players at a combined amount of $46,695,095 (that’s the four salaries, plus the allowable 110% bump for salary matching).

That means this deal just squeaks in by $40,595 within the salary-matching rules. And it requires Harden to waive his 15% trade bonus. If Harden wants that 15% bonus, the Clippers will have to find about $5.1 million in salary. That seems unlikely to be a thing, given Harden is finally going where he wants to be.

(There is a version of this trade where the 76ers break the deal down further and use 125% salary-matching rules. That version would create a larger TPE for the Sixers, but it would hard cap them. And Philadelphia would be just $2.8M under the hard cap in the scenario. That’s probably tighter than they want to be, simply to create a TPE that will likely go unused. We’ll know when the trade is actually completed which path the 76ers chose.)

As far as the basketball side of this trade…wow! A Halloween blockbuster!

The Clippers are even more all in now. They’ll have a core of stars including Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They sapped some of their depth, but recovered a bit by taking on Tucker. And LA was able to keep Terance Mann too.

Harden, for all of his off-court nonsense and recent injuries, has generally been pretty durable. He’ll give the Clippers some coverage if (when?) Leonard and/or George have to miss some time. Instead of the offense becoming the Russell Westbrook show, LA will have a guy who can still create offense all on his own.

When the team is fully healthy, they’ve got a lot of options on offense now. The Clippers will be small-ish (Leonard will effectively be the starting power forward), but they should be fine. Leonard can guard up, and if they need to go with more a traditional four, Ty Lue can go with Tucker. And, lest we forget, Harden has been at his best in recent years at guarding, bigger, less-mobile players. So, the options are actually fairly plentiful for Lue to choose from matchup-wise.

On offense, the Clippers become even more deadly. In theory, at least. There are some questions about putting Westbrook in even more of an off-ball role, but Lue should be able to stagger his lineups enough to make sure he has two of the main scoring engines out there at all times. That should allow everyone to get enough touches to keep them involved.

As for depth, LA will have Tucker and Mann in place, along with Norman Powell, Mason Plumlee and Bones Hyland. That’s pretty solid, as far as a 10-man depth chart goes.

Mostly, this trade lends more short-term certainty to the Clippers. They are covered if one of the stars has to miss some time. That should keep the offense afloat, instead of things falling apart as they did in the 2023 playoffs.

Long-term, there’s just as much uncertainty as ever. Harden can’t be extended, because he signed only a two-year deal as a free agent in 2022 (two-year contracts can’t be extended).

That makes this a one-year experiment. If everything works out great and the Clippers make that long-awaited NBA Finals run, they can re-up with Harden, as well as Leonard and George in free agency this summer. If it doesn’t work, the team is out some more draft capital, but there isn’t any additional long-term salary commitment, minus Tucker’s sure-to-be-picked-up player option for 2024-25.

The Clippers have strayed back into familiar, yet scary, territory as far as draft picks go. Effectively, they are right back where they were a couple of years ago. LA has no control over their first-round picks until 2030. That was the exact situation they were in when they acquired George from the Thunder back in 2019.

But LA is the type of team that can conceivably spend their way out of troubles down the line. And if things really go south, the Clippers can always trade away their stars to recoup some draft picks.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: 

Nicolas Batum: $11.7 million

Robert Covington: $11.7 million

Kenyon Martin Jr.: $1.9 million

Marcus Morris Sr.: $17.1 million

Total incoming 2023-24 salary: $42,450,086

Outgoing salary: 

James Harden: $35.6 million

Filip Petrusev: $1,119,563 ($559,782 guaranteed)

P.J. Tucker: $11 million for 2023-24, 11.5 million player option for 2024-25

Total outgoing 2023-24 salary: $47,774,063

 

The Sixers don’t achieve a ton on-court with this trade…at least at the moment. It’s unclear how much, if anything, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington and Marcus Morris Sr. will contribute to Philadelphia basketball-wise. At least one or two of them will probably play, because the Sixers did open up opportunities at the power forward spot in this trade.

Player-wise, K.J. Martin is the most interesting guy the 76ers acquired. He’s got that athletic bounciness that the Sixers otherwise lack. He could start, or become a really interesting bench guy. Martin is also the type of player Nick Nurse will love throwing into games at a bunch of different spots and just asking him to create chaos.

The real gets here for Philadelphia were the draft picks, and the cap flexibility. That’s what they were seemingly always after, and Daryl Morey pulled it off.

Philadelphia picked up two direct first-round picks in this deal, plus a far-out pick swap. By taking picks in 2026 (the protections/conditions the Thunder added to this pick are TBD as of this writing) and 2028, along with the 2029 swap, the 76ers can wait to see if the Clippers crater down the line. It’s unlikely that all of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden will still be playing at an All-Star level by the time the latter of those two picks are due. Heck, it’s unclear if they’ll even be at that level by the time the first pick comes due in 2026.

That’s more than a recouping of the draft capital Philadelphia spent to acquire Harden in the first place. That’s great work by Morey.

Beyond the picks, but of no less importance, the Sixers not only conserved their 2024 cap space in this deal, but they created even more. P.J. Tucker is a near-guarantee to pick up his player option for next season. That’s something Philadelphia would have had to deal with, as they dream of max cap space.

As it stands now, the 76ers will likely clear the decks almost as clean as they can approaching the summer of 2024. There are really two scenarios to consider.

Scenario A: Philadelphia goes for every dime they can get, while retaining Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

In this scenario, the Sixers renounce all of their free agents (including De’Anthony Melton) who aren’t Maxey, and they waive Paul Reed (assuming his contract remains non-guaranteed). We’ll also assume they trade their 2024 first-round pick for some sort of future pick down the line. (Both scenarios assume Philadelphia does not pick up Jaden Springer’s rookie scale team option for 2024-25).

In that case, the 76ers would have only Embiid at $51.4 million and Maxey’s cap hold at $13 million on the books. When you add back the roster charges (10 of them at the league minimum), Philadelphia would have a projected $65.2 million in cap space. The 10-plus Years of Service maximum salary projects to be $49.7 million for 2024-25.

That’s enough to sign a maximum veteran, with about $15.5 million to spend leftover. In addition. Philadelphia would have the Room Exception, which projects to be just over $8 million.

Scenario B: Philadelphia retains a couple of key players, in addition to Embiid and Maxey.

In this scenario, the Sixers renounce everyone who isn’t Maxey and Melton, and they also keep Reed. We’ll also assume they keep their first-rounder too, just for comparison’s sake.

This scenario leaves Philadelphia with about $43.3 million in cap space. That’s not enough for a 10-plus Years of Service maximum, but it is enough for 7-to-9 Years of Service maximum (projects to be $42.6 million for 2024-25). And, again, the 76ers would have the $8 million Room Exception to spend.

So, it’s kind of choosing between $22 million in additional cap space, or retaining Melton’s free agent rights, Reed and the first-round pick. There are plusses and minuses to both approaches. The guess here is that Daryl Morey will have an understanding of who is in play in free agency, long before having to make decisions on renouncements and waivers. (No, this isn’t a cheap tampering joke! It’s just a reality of how these things work.)

There is one other scenario in play…and it’s the most interesting one of all.

Morey reportedly wanted players, or assets to add players, in any Harden deal. He accomplished the former in terms of salary-matching and the latter in terms of actual assets. If Morey is committed to being a title contender, the 76ers are just below that level. They are a solid playoff team, but shy of the true contender tier. But that could all change with another deal or two.

In a very real sense, Morey added $46 million in tradable salary in this deal, and he also has the draft picks necessary to juice any offers he wants to make. That’s enough to get in the conversation for just about whatever star comes available next. It’ll take 60 days before Philadelphia can re-aggregate the guys they just acquired, but that’s still well in advance of the trade deadline.

There’s a world where the Sixers do a little “pre-agency” work and acquire a player ahead of the trade deadline. That would give Philadelphia the player now, to aid in a playoff run this season, while also presumably giving them the leg up on keeping said player moving forward. It’s also possible, Morey could flip some of the newly-acquired players and draft assets for a better player who is also on an expiring contract. Then, if things don’t work out great, they can move on, without having harmed the 2024 cap space plan.

The main takeaway: Philadelphia now has options that they didn’t have before. They recouped draft assets, they added tradable salary that can be used in just about any combination imaginable, and they did nothing to hurt their future flexibility. That’s mission accomplished as far as Daryl Morey’s stated trade objectives.

Oklahoma City Thunder

We’ll keep this one relatively short and sweet. The Thunder kicked the can down the road as far as a draft pick goes…maybe. Oklahoma City will reportedly add some protections/conditions to the 2026 first-round pick they are now conveying to Philadelphia on behalf of LA. Likely, that means if that pick becomes really good (top-five, top-10, lottery?) the Thunder will keep it, and send another pick to Philadelphia. Otherwise, the Sixers get it.

In exchange, Oklahoma City gets control over yet another Clippers pick in 2027, via swap rights. There is a very real chance the Thunder could be a considerably better team than the Clippers in 2027. Oklahoma City is young and improving rapidly. In four years, the Clippers will have gone from old to ancient, and will likely be on a downswing.

This is Sam Presti at his best. This is why he’s kept control of so many picks, even while having to waive some former first-rounders recently, due to roster constraints. Presti can insert his team into almost any deal by offering to help things along, while rebalancing his draft assets down the line. No one does that better than Presti does.

 

With the MLB offseason upon us, teams will soon be able to utlize the trade as a way to formulate 40-man rosters, clear payroll, and of course, improve themselves for the 2024 season. Spotrac has identified a player or two from each current roster that could be in discussions this winter, including any financial ramifications associated.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jake McCarthy (OF, 26)

Arizona boasts a surplus of young talent in their outfield, and are almost guaranteed to bring in some form of veteran presence to bolster the position group this winter as well. McCarthy has one more year of pre-arbitration status, then projects to begin a 4-year arbitration track through the 2028 season. He’s already shown an ability to hang at this level (2.6 WAR in 100 2022 games), so this could be a splashy pickup for a team in need.

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver (SP, 21)

The former 7th round pick flew up the minor track last year, finding his way to 5 MLB starts for Atlanta down the stretch. Is this a real progression, or more fool’s gold? If Atlanta thinks they can sell high on a 21-year-old arm, look for them to pick up the phone. Otherwise, injuries already have this rotation in shambles, so every available option will be needed.

Also: Vaughn Grissom (SS, 23)

Baltimore Orioles

Jorge Mateo (SS, 29)

The Orioles are flush with young infield talent, putting the final 2 years of Mateo’s arbitration track on notice. His role was greatly reduced in 2023 after a breakout 2022 campaign (3.26 WAR).
Also: Anthony Santander (OF, 29); Tyler Wells (SP, 29)

Boston Red Sox

Alex Verdugo (OF, 28)

One of the main pieces in the unspeakable Mookie Betts trade is set to enter his third and final arbitration season in 2024, Verdugo has posted almost identical back-to-back-to-back seasons for Boston. He projects to eclipse the $9M mark next season, and Boston may not be in a position to keep many expiring contracts around
Also: Nick Pivetta (SP, 31)

Chicago Cubs

Drew Smyly (SP, 35)

It’s never good to shop a player coming off of a 4-year-low production season, but a change of scenery for Smyly might make sense for everyone here. The Cubs may need to pay down much of his $13M remaining ($10.5M in 2024 + a $2.5M buyout for 2025), but shedding a little cash make sense here if possible.

Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease (SP, 28)

Cease couldn’t follow up a phenomenal 2022 in any capacity (4.58 ERA, 1.4 WHIP in 2023), but he remains a strikeout machine (3 straight 200+ seasons). With two years of arbitration still ahead, he’s in the perfect spot for Chicago to flip him for a sizable return. If they don’t believe they can build a winner around him - now is the time to strike.

Also: Michael Kopech (SP, 28); Yoan Moncada (3B, 29)

Cincinnati Reds

Jonathan India (2B, 27)

India filled up the stat board again in 2023, and his projected Arbitration 1 salary ($3.2M) isn’t too hot to handle for the Reds. With that said, the youth movement is officially here in Cincinnati with the likes of Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, & Spencer Steer ready to take over both this infield - and the lineup as a whole. With 3 years of term still ahead of him, India should fetch Cincy a really nice haul this winter.

Cleveland Guardians

Shane Bieber (SP, 29)

The 2020 Cy Young winner is entering the final season of arbitration in 2024, set to become a free agent next winter. Did Cleveland wait too long to move on? Maybe, but there are plenty of contenders (NY, NY, LAD, ATL, BAL to name a few) thirsty for ready-made top of the rotation starters right now. He’s on track for a $22M-$25M per year contract in the coming months.

Also: James Karinchak (RP, 28); Cal Quantrill (SP, 29)

Colorado Rockies

None. The Rockies traded 5 players at this past summer’s deadline, doing their dirty work for the winter early. Arm injuries to German Marquez & Antonio Senzatela likely have this front office reeling a bit for the upcoming season. This may be a pretty quiet team for most of 2024.

Detroit Tigers

Javier Baez (SS, 31)

This one is complicated, as Baez has the ability to opt out of the remaining 4 years, $98M of his contract. However, he also just posted his worst full season to date, becoming a legitimate liability at the plate for Detroit last year. Defensively, he’s still a marvel at times, so there’s a world where a contending team with middle infield woes wants a player such as Baez, as long as they have enough firepower to protect him in the batting lineup (Atlanta for instance). Assuming Baez opts-in, the Tigers may be inclined to pay down this contract in order to move it this winter.

Houston Astros

Framber Valdez (SP, 29)

Valdez began 2023 looking every bit the consistently great pitcher he’s been for Houston since 2021. But he faltered down the stretch, and was a liability come postseason time for the Astros. He holds two more arbitration seasons, including a projected $12.8M salary for 2024, so the time to shop is now, but it may be a bit of a sell low move for Houston this winter.

Kansas City Royals

Brady Singer (SP, 27)

Another example of a player who was on the fast track to an extension after 2022 (4.46 WAR), but really took a large step back in 2023 (5.52 ERA, 0.3 WAR in 29 starts). With 3 more years of arbitration still ahead of him, there’s no reason for KC to rush with any move, but KC is looking for a core to move forward with, and Singer may no longer be in the running.

Also: Salvador Perez (C, 33)

Los Angeles Angels

Patrick Sandoval (SP, 27)

Sandoval battled injuries in 2023, but he also looked a lot like the middling pitcher he came into the league as. The Angels aren’t in any position to be giving up on potential starting pitching, but snagging some trade value out of Sandoval - who had a fantastic 2022 - while it still exists could be smart business.

Also: Mike Trout (OF, 32)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Austin Barnes (C, 34)

Barnes posted a team-low -1.2 WAR for 2023, posting an OPS under .500 in 60 games. With that said, he’s still considered to be a viable backup catcher, and his $3.5M price tag for 2024 isn’t terribly daunting. Will Smith and top prospect Diego Cartaya likely break camp as the Dodgers’ backstop options.

 

Miami Marlins

Trevor Rogers (SP, 26)

Rogers can be lumped in with a few starting arms in the Marlins’ organization (Edward Cabrera to name one), as an area where the team can afford to get a little lighter in exchange for offense. Like many of the names on this list, Rogers hasn’t been able to recreate 1 fabulous season (2021 in his case), with an arm injury largely to blame for this past season’s numbers (4 ERA, 0.29 WAR). A change of scenery could reinvigorate his career, and three years of arbitration ahead of him should be attractive to teams in need.

Milwaukee Brewers

Corbin Burnes (SP, 29)

Burnes has now posted 3-straight 200 K seasons, 3-straight 3.5 WAR seasons, and is entering a 3rd and final arbitration season in 2024, projecting to cost around $14M. Offseason shoulder surgery for Brandon Woodruff could give Milwaukee reason to dial plans back a bit, which could mean moving their ace for the right trade package (Baltimore is on the clock). He projects to a 6 year, $150M extension in our system currently.
Also: Willy Adames (SS, 28)

Minnesota Twins

Kyle Farmer (INF, 33)

To be fair here the Twins don’t have a clear cut trade candidate, as their payroll contains an excellent balance of young and expensive right now. But it seems like they’re one legitimate “starter” away from really taking that next step, so moving on from a few depth pieces in order to acquire that next man up could be in store here. Farmer projects to a $6.2M salary for his last arbitration season.

New York Mets

Starling Marte (OF, 35)

Marte has battled injuries for the better part of two seasons in NY, and carries a massive $39M guaranteed over the next two years. The Mets haven’t been shy about paying down contracts to free up roster spots, but age, injury history, and contract aren’t on their side here.
Also: D.J. Stewart (OF, 30); Pete Alonso (1B, 29)

New York Yankees

Anthony Rizzo (1B, 34)

Rizzo battled concussion symptoms for the final two months of 2023, and was a shell of himself offensively for the four months that preceded it. The Yankees would be selling low here, and they probably have to pay down a significant portion of Rizzo’s $20M salary for 2024, but it seems like something needs to give on this current roster, and this might be the easier of the evils.

Also: Gleyber Torres (INF, 27)

Oakland Athletics

Paul Blackburn (SP, 30)

Blackburn holds 2 more years of arbitration, so he’s in the sweet spot for any team (let alone Oakland) to consider taking trade offers. He’s posted back to back strong seasons on the mound around poor A’s teams, putting him in line to be the next solid player to be developed and flipped by this organization. The 30-year-old projects to a $3.5M salary for 2024.

Philadelphia Phillies

Edmundo Sosa (INF, 27)

Sosa’s probably a career role player from here out, and his power numbers actually improved in 2023, but Philadelphia will be looking to improve their depth pieces this offseason (because they’re starting 9 is fairly rock solid), so swapping out Sosa for a young player or two to free up a roster spot for an incoming free agent seems right.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller (SP, 28)

Keller stormed out of the gate in 2023, putting himself in conversations with some of the games best. Things fell back to earth a bit as the summer came around, but he still finished the campaign with career numbers across the board, including 210 strikeouts & a 2.85 WAR. His salary likely jumps near the $7M next season, with another arbitration year still to follow thereafter. Pittsburgh is likely listening here, but it’s not a requirement that they move on (yet).

Also: David Bednar (RP, 29)

San Diego Padres

Juan Soto (OF, 25)

Juan Soto just turned 25 in mid-October, and is headed toward his 4th and final arbitration season in 2024 (projected to garner a salary at or around the $30M mark). The Boras Corp. client is likely destined for free agency next winter no matter what happens in the coming months, but it’s no secret that the Padres are fielding phone calls here, and that the big names are the ones calling. He projects to a 12 year, $400M contract in our system currently.

Also: Trent Grisham (OF, 27); 

San Francisco Giants

Mike Yastrzemski (OF, 33)

The Giants seem like a team that had to revert to Plan B in many areas last season. Will they counter this offseason with a spending spree? If so, look for former core players like Yastremski, who projects to a $6.5M salary in his second to last arbitration season, to be shopped in exchange.

Seattle Mariners

Dylan Moore (UTIL, 31)

Moore’s usage in Seattle has been on a downward trend since 2020, but the Mariners chose to buy out the rest of his arbitration (+1 free agent season) on a 3 year, $8.875M extension last February. While cost isn’t necessarily an issue here, this feels like a contract better served on a team willing to utilize his versatility - freeing up a roster spot for a Mariners team looking to push more into contention.

St. Louis Cardinals

Tyler O'Neill (OF, 28)

The Cardinals have had a surplus in the outfield for awhile now, and have now paid O’Neill nearly $9M across the past two seasons for minimal production. He’s entering a third and final arbitration season in 2024, projected to earn around $5.5M, and should be on the move this winter.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Glasnow (SP, 30)

When he’s healthy, he’s a sub-3.50 ERA, 11 strikeouts per 9 innings top of the rotation pitcher. But health hasn’t been on his side at any point in time over the past 7 seasons. Combine that with a $25M salary for 2024 (about $15M more than Tampa likes to pay anyone), and the writing seems to be on the wall here.

Also: Manuel Margot (OF, 29); Vidal Brujan (2B, 26)

Texas Rangers

Ezequiel Duran (INF, 25)

Duran was one of the Yankees better prospect when NY moved him to Texas for Joey Gallo back in 2021. He showed flashes off power/production this year in a limited role, but doesn’t appear to have a track to more opportunities with Corey Seager & Marcus Semien blocking his path for the foreseeable future.
Also: Leodys Taveras (OF, 25)

Toronto Blue Jays

Danny Jansen (C, 28)

Jansen projects to a $5.1M salary for 2024, his final arbitration season, coming off a year that saw career numbers in many areas (17 HRs, 15 2Bs, 53 RBIs). He’ll remain a platoon player behind Alejandro Kirk in this system, but could vie for a starting role in a better situation.

Also: Cavan Biggio (2B, 29); Santiago Espinal (3B, 29)

Washington Nationals

Dominic Smith (1B, 29)

Smith might be trending more toward a non-tender candidate than a trade option, but a fairly strong finish at the plate did lift his numbers into a somewhat respectable position (21 2Bs, 12 HRs, 0.89 WAR). He’s a depth piece at best, and his $5M+ projected salary for his 3rd and final arbitration will be too steep for most, but maybe there’s a fit out there.
Also: Patrick Corbin (SP, 34)

Michael GinnittiOctober 25, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks' 4-2 win over the Phillies last night secured their World Series ticket, setting up a preseason betting odds dream matchup with the Rangers. We'll take a closer look at the financials of our 2023 matchup, then take a quick ride through the financial matchups in each of the last 10 World Series.

2023

Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Rangers bring the 4th highest payroll ($251M) into this year’s Fall Classic, including a $510M middle infield in Corey Seager & Marcus Semien. Texas also compiled the 3rd most Injured List money in 2023, thanks in large part to Jacob deGrom’s arm injury. The Rangers pumped $828M into their past two free agencies.

Texas carried a $55M active starting rotation this season (not including the likes of Scherzer, deGrom, Gray, & Odorizzi due to injury), & a bullpen that relied heavily on Jose Leclerc & WIll Smith’s combined $10M. The Rangers’ 5-man outfield rotation accounted for only $4.8M this season.

Arizona becomes the latest inexpensive team to get to the finish line, carrying the 21st highest payroll in 2023 ($119M). Only 1 player (Ketel Marte) carried a 2023 salary larger than $10M, while 57% of the roster was comprised of players in pre-arbitration status. Young phenom Corbin Carroll already has his early extension (8 years, $111M through 2030), while it seems only a matter of time before Gabriel Moreno & Christian Walker (to name a few) get theirs.

The Diamondbacks have value all over their roster, including a $15M starting rotation (Gallen, Kelly, Nelson, Pfaadt), a closer (Sewald) they acquired at the deadline at a $1.3M salary, and a starting outfield of Carroll, Pham, & Thomas that accounted for just $3.8M on their books this season.

From a Starting 9 standpoint, the Rangers are poised to throw out a 1-9 that combined for $72.4M this season (85% of which belongs to Seager & Semien). Arizona's projected 1-9 accounted for just $34.2M this season.

2022

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Houston’s #8 ranked payroll ($183M) defeated Philadelphia’s 4th ranked payroll ($244M) 4 games to 2. Philly snuck into the World Series through the back of the bracket, but their roster held no surprises on the books. Massive deals for Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, & Kyle Schwarber became worth every penny down the stretch. Houston, meanwhile, actually shedding a few financial pounds in 2022, with Carlos Correa & Greinke coming off the books for starters.

2021

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros

The #10 payroll Braves ($152M) defeated Houston’s 5th ranked payroll ($194M) 4 games to 2. Freddie Freeman’s final hurrah in Atlanta was a storybook finish, while this young Braves group (Acuna, Albies, Riley) was about to be paid handsomely. Houston now had big deals for Jose Altuve & Zack Greinke on their books, putting them near the $200M mark for their first time.

2020

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The #1 payroll Dodgers ($125M) defeated Tampa’s incredible #28 ranked payroll ($28M) 4 games to 2. The biggest financial gap on our books saw the Rays bring a roster that contained only 1 player (Charlie Morton, $5.5M) with a salary north of $5M. Still, this young and feisty group couldn’t grasp control of a series against a Dodgers group that was worth $100M more, due in large part to the acquisition of Mookie Betts before the season.

2019

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros

The #7 payroll Nationals ($172M) defeated the 8th ranked payroll Astros ($167M) 4 games to 3. While Washington’s win was a huge surprise, they didn’t come out of nowhere financially speaking, with large deals for Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, & Ryan Zimmerman all on the books. Strasburg would opt-out, and re-up into what has been a mess of a situation for the Nationals ever since. New deals for Justin Verlander & Michael Brantley, plus increased arbitration salaries for Gerrit Cole & George Springer finally vaulted Houston into Top 10 status.

2018

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The #1 payroll Red Sox ($227M) defeated the 3rd ranked payroll Dodgers ($199M) 4 games to 1. This was the highest combined World Series matchup we have on the books, as Boston was carrying sizable contracts for David Price, JD Martinez, and Rick Porcello, while LA were amidst $400M worth of contracts for Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp still.

2017

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The #17 payroll Astros ($138M) defeated the 1st ranked payroll Dodgers ($259M) 4 games to 3. This was the official breakout season of the Astros as we still know them, including the acquisition of Justin Verlander at the August waiver deadline. The Dodgers squandered a “super-team” from a payroll perspective, carrying 7 players with a salary north of $10M this season. 

2016

Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians

The #5 payroll Cubs ($184M) defeated the 18th ranked payroll Indians ($106M) 4 games to 3. Chicago was bolstered by an expensive starting rotation (Lester, Lackey, Arrieta, Hammel), and a savvy deadline acquisition to the back of their bullpen in Aroldis Chapman. Cleveland was playing on house money with pre-arbitration salaries for the likes of Jose Ramirez & Francisco Lindor. Ramirez would sign his first extension the following March

2015

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets

The #13 payroll Royals ($126M) defeated the 18th ranked payroll Mets ($115M) 4 games to 1. The matchup featured only 1 player on the books at $20M+ (David Wright), and only 4 at $10M+ (Alex Gordon, Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon). Kansas City was a .500 team a year later, and have been well under that mark ever since.

Keith SmithOctober 24, 2023

The deadline has come and gone for extending rookie scale contracts for members of the 2020 NBA Draft class. In total, 14 players reached extensions worth more than $1.4 billion in total salaries. Both are records, according to our data on Spotrac.

There were a few themes, perhaps signs of impacts of the new CBA already being felt.

THEME #1

Teams are now allowed to offer non-maximum five-year deals. Under the previous CBA, any rookie scale extension of five years had to be a max contract. That was felt right away.

We still saw three Designated Player extensions (Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton), but there were three other five-year deals reached. Desmond Bane got what we’ll refer to as a functional max, as he has bonus language putting him just below a guaranteed max deal. Devin Vassell and Jaden McDaniels both got less than the max, but each got five years. That’s a new thing, and the coming years will tell us if those deals set a precedent.

THEME #2

Zeke Nnaji got the only player option in the class. And his came in a deal that was pretty creative (more on that later).

Player options on rookie scale deals had previously been reserved for the guys who established themselves as stars in their first three seasons. Both Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell got player options on the rookie scale extensions they signed in 2020. Luka Doncic and Trae Young each followed with a player option on their five-year max extensions. Since then, no one else has gotten one until Nnaji.

This is a return to norm. Player options are again being reserved for special cases, either superstars or creative contract structures.

THEME #3

Three players (Aaron Nesmith, Zeke Nnaji and Payton Pritchard) signed contracts that will come in under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. An additional three players (Deni Avdija, Cole Anthony and Josh Green) signed deals that will be roughly equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

It used to be that to get a player to sign an extension, you had to beat the MLE amount. Otherwise, players would bet on themselves and enter restricted free agency. And deals far below the MLE equivalent were very rare.

That’s changing on both the player and team sides. Teams like Boston, Denver and Dallas are going to be dancing around the luxury tax and both tax aprons for the foreseeable future. Locking up their players now is good business. It keeps the player in the fold, while also giving the team some tradable salary down the line.

For Nesmith, Avdija and Anthony, this was a chance to lock in some guaranteed money in what could have been an uncertain season leading into an uncertain summer. None are locks to play a big enough role to have that true breakout season it would take to really cash in as restricted free agents. And their teams could all choose to go the cap space route, which might have taken any of the three out of the mix for a new deal.

For Nesmith, Anthony and Green, all took three-year deals (Anthony’s deal actually as a team option on the third season). In exchange for signing team-friendly extensions, all three players will be able to get back on the market while entering the prime years of their careers.

It’s also a reading of the landscape. The cap for 2024-25 doesn’t project to jump the full 10% possible, as of now. If the cap growth is less than some think, it could depress the market some. And restricted free agency is already far more team-friendly than player-friendly, as players like Austin Reaves and P.J. Washington discovered this past summer.

Now, for an accountability check, we’re going to go back through each player from the 2020 Draft class (plus Chuma Okeke from the 2019 Draft class) to see how our predictions measured up against what actually happened.

(Note: Max deals are currently slightly under what was projected, as the cap 2024-25 cap projections came in lower than expected)

2020 Draft Class

#1 Anthony Edwards – Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

Actual: Five-year, Designated Rookie extension

We aren’t going to spend time crowing here. This was one of the bigger no-brainers on the board.

#2 James Wiseman – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Wiseman will have a chance to show he’s worth spending on in free agency. The tricky part now? If Detroit has cap space aspirations, Wiseman’s $30.3 million cap hold probably has to go.

#3 LaMelo Ball – Charlotte Hornets

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

Actual: Five-year, Designated Rookie extension

Same as with Edwards, this one was a no-brainer. Ball is the only sure-thing player on the Hornets roster.

#4 Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls

Prediction: Five years, $100 million, no options

Actual: No extension

This could be one the Bulls regret not getting done. Williams may have wanted more money, especially after seeing what Devin Vassell and Jaden McDaniels got, and that’s likely why Chicago backed off. But if Williams has a big year, he’ll be an interesting restricted free agent this summer.

#5 Isaac Okoro – Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No surprise here. Cleveland already signed Okoro’s theoretical replacement in Max Strus. That leaves Okoro playing for his next deal this season.

#6 Onyeka Okongwu – Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $62 million

We wrote this in the prediction piece: “Normally, we’d say the Hawks should lock up Okongwu. But this team has so much long-term salary already committed for a middle-of-the-pack roster. Because of that, Atlanta may need to rebalance the roster a bit before taking care of Okongwu.” So much for that!

As it stands, Okongwu got one of the best deals from the team side. $15.5 million AAV for a guy who will probably be a good starting center in a year or two is tremendous value for an increasingly expensive Hawks team. And it frees up Atlanta to trade Clint Capela down the line to eventually rebalance the roster.

#7 Killian Hayes – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No real surprise here. Hayes has looked good this preseason, and Monty Williams seems to be a fan. But there hasn’t been enough real production to warrant an extension.

#8 Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded. Then, four years and $70 million seems like a worthy gamble as an upside bet.

Actual: No extension

Despite being traded from the New York Knicks to the Indiana Pacers, Toppin didn’t get an extension. That’s fine. The Pacers are taking a wait-and-see approach. If Toppin breaks out, Indiana can control the process in restricted free agency.

#9 Deni Avdija – Washington Wizards

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $55 million

This one was a bit of a surprise. The Wizards committed MLE-equivalent money to Avdija, but structured the deal as a declining contract. He’s the best defender on the roster, even if he’s in a crowded perimeter forward mix. If nothing else, this is a very tradable deal for Washington down the line.

#10 Jalen Smith – Indiana Pacers

Smith had his third- and fourth-year options declined by the Phoenix Suns. He was traded to Indiana during the 2021-22 season. Smith then signed a three-year, $15.1 million with the Pacers in the summer of 2022.

#11 Devin Vassell – San Antonio Spurs 

Prediction: Five years, $115 million, no options

Actual: Five years, $135 million to $146 million

We wrote this in the original piece: “This is another one where the five-year allowance for non-max deals in the CBA could be big.”

That’s exactly how this played out, even if Vassell got more than we expected at the time. One key to the deal: The Spurs structured this deal to decline the maximum amount possible, to coincide with the season Victor Wembanyama’s already-presumed Designated Player rookie scale extension starts. Vassell’s contract then goes back up for the final season, which could aid in the next round of extension negotiations.

#12 Tyrese Haliburton – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options; Designated Rookie language to bump the extension to five years, $248,820,000, no options

Actual: Five-year, Designated Rookie extension

Another no-brainer. Haliburton is a star.

#13 Kira Lewis Jr. – New Orleans Pelicans

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Lewis is more likely to get moved in a trade to avoid the luxury tax than he was to extend. New Orleans is about $2.9 million over the tax line. They won’t finish the year as a tax team.

#14 Aaron Nesmith – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Three years, $33 million

This one was a real surprise. Nesmith was healthy and a nice fit with the Pacers last season. He makes sense in a lot of different lineup constructions. As we talked about in the opening, it used to be rare for a player to take less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE equivalent. In Nesmith’s case, given his health issues in his first two seasons, as well as his final college season, it makes sense to lock in the money now.

#15 Cole Anthony – Orlando Magic

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Three years, $39.1 million, team option on the final season

We said the Magic would probably let this play out, unless Anthony agreed to something team-friendly. Both sides sort of split the difference. Anthony gets a deal for roughly the equivalent of the MLE, but the Magic got a team option on Year 3. That’s smart business by both sides, given the Magic’s unsettled backcourt, Anthony’s talent and Orlando’s potential as a cap space team.

#16 Isaiah Stewart – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $60 to $64 million, team option on the final season

This one was a surprise in both the timing and that it got done. Stewart signed this extension in early-July, which is usually a part of the calendar reserved for max extensions. The amount was a bit surprising too, but Stewart is the most-proven player among Detroit’s big men. He’s worth locking up for slightly more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount.

#17 Aleksej Pokusevski – Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Pokusevski is again hurt and will miss the start of the regular season. There are still far too many unknowns for the Thunder to commit any kind of reasonable money to Pokusevski.

#18 Josh Green – Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Four years, $70 million

Actual: Three years, $41 million

We were in range, but Green took less than we thought he’d get. This is another deal that looks pretty favorable towards the team. In exchange for taking less money, Green gets to get back on the market ahead of his age-27 season. That puts Green in line for a lucrative contract, should he keep developing.

#19 Saddiq Bey – Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

We thought the Hawks tax situation would make it tough for them to extend both Bey and Onyeka Okongwu. Instead, it seems to have been a “one or the other” situation, and Atlanta went with the big man. The Hawks also seem to be letting the forward situation play out a bit here, with Bey battling De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson for minutes in a John Collins-less frontcourt.

#20 Precious Achiuwa – Toronto Raptors

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No surprise here, as things are too unsettled in Toronto to lock into a deal for a player who could eventually be traded. The Raptors have a lot to figure out this season, and Achiuwa’s development is another item on a long list.

#21 Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

Actual: No extension

We’re still calling this one a win. Philadelphia didn’t extend Maxey, but not because he hasn’t earned it. They didn’t extend him because they are using his small-ish cap hold to try and maximize their cap space in the summer of 2024. Maxey is still going to get a max deal, it’ll just come a year later than it could have.

#22 Zeke Nnaji – Denver Nuggets

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $32 million, player option on the final season

This is another deal where we’re having to reframe our thinking. Nnaji locked in pretty solid money, given he’s been in and out of Denver’s rotation for his entire career. And he got the only player option in the class. In addition, Nnaji’s contract starts high and declines. That helps Denver, when they eventually extend Jamal Murray and the payroll is bumping against the second apron. If he breaks out during this deal, Nnaji can get back on the market of his own choosing in a few years.

#23 Leandro Bolmaro – out of the NBA

Bolmaro is out of the NBA after two non-descript seasons. He returned to Spain after a midseason waiver from the Utah Jazz. Bolmaro also signed a year late, so he would haven’t been extension-eligible anyway.

#24 R.J. Hampton – Detroit Pistons

Hampton was waived by the Orlando Magic before finishing the season with the Pistons. He’s got a non-guaranteed contract for next season with Detroit. Hampton also had his fourth-year option declined, which would have rendered him unable to extend, had he stayed with Orlando. (Hampton is now on a two-way contract with the Miami Heat.)

#25 Immanuel Quickley – New York Knicks

Prediction: Four years, $84 million with incentives that could bring it up to $90 million, no options

Actual: No extension

This is the most dangerous non-extension of them all. Quickley is good and other teams know it. He’s the kind of guy who makes sense as a restricted free agent target for just about everyone. That could put the Knicks in a tricky spot to match an offer sheet, or risk losing Quickley for nothing. Maybe a trade comes before then, or maybe New York feels confident in what is a pretty crowded guard group. But there’s a lot of risk on the Knicks side in not extending Quickley.

#26 Payton Pritchard – Boston Celtics

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $30 million

This one was a surprise, in that it’s another under-MLE extension, and it looked like Pritchard might get traded at the end of the season. Instead, he’s the backup point guard on a title contender, and Pritchard is paid fairly for that role for the next four seasons. If nothing else, Boston avoids bleeding more talent, when it’s hard for them to backfill due to the second apron. And, stop us if you’ve heard this before, it’s a tradable contract down the line.

#27 Udoka Azubuike – Utah Jazz

Azubuike had his fourth-year team option declined by the Jazz. Given the presence of Walker Kessler on the roster, it’s likely Azubuike will be playing elsewhere next season. (Azubuike is now on a two-way deal with the Phoenix Suns.)

#28 Jaden McDaniels – Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: four years, $100 million, no options

Actual: Five years, $131 to $136 million

McDaniels cashed in even more than we thought. Going the full five years is a win for the Timberwolves, which might have led to McDaniels getting more in terms of AAV than we predicted. This is still a really good deal for Minnesota and McDaniels both. The Wolves now have some cover if (when?) they trade either Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert, between the extensions for McDaniels and Naz Reid. But in the short-term, the Wolves are going to be very expensive for a middle-of-the-pack team. That means moves are coming…eventually.

#29 Malachi Flynn – Toronto Raptors

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

It’s more surprising that Flynn had both of his rookie scale options picked up than him not getting extended. This is approaching Last Chance Saloon time for Flynn, as far as saving his NBA career.

#30 Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

Actual: Five years, $197 million to $206 million

Bane didn’t get the max deal we predicted, but he more or less did. If he hits his incentives, Bane will make the max. Given he’s the surest thing for Memphis this season (and possibly beyond), this is a terrific contract for both the Grizzlies and Bane.

 

2019 Draft Class

Chuma Okeke – Orlando Magic

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Okeke signed a year later, after being drafted in 2019. Even with the extra year, he hasn’t shown enough to land an extension. The Magic also have a ton of talent stockpiled at Okeke’s positions. He’s more of a trade candidate now than he ever was an extension candidate.

 

Michael GinnittiOctober 23, 2023

Taking the Pulse on Massive QB Contracts

The NFL is as much a “quarterback league” as it's ever been, but while players continue to lock into massive contracts every spring and summer, that doesn’t always necessarily translate to immediate (or sustainable) success on the field. Our snapshot look at the 12 largest QB contracts currently on the books, how they fare in terms of future stability, and their respective team’s outlook for 2023.

Patrick Mahomes

The current MVP favorite (+260) agreed to a restructure to his massive contract this September that moved up around $44M of cash into the next few seasons. All $44.5M of his 2024 compensation + $32.35M from 2025 is currently fully guaranteed, and everyone is just fine with that. The Chiefs enter Week 8 as the AFC #1 Seed.

Joe Burrow

Signed a 5 year, $275M extension in September that carries $146.5M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers for 2026 & 2027 that all but lock in $219M. Health tempered the start to his 2023 season, but he looked as good as ever in Week 6. Despite that, Cincy’s playoff chances hover around 30%, as they find themselves “on the bubble” behind Houston & the Jets (if you can believe it).

Justin Herbert

Signed a 5 year, $262.5M extension in July that carries $133.7M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers in 2026, 2027, & 2028 that lock in over $218M. The 2-4 Chargers are sliding down the standings this season, and could be staring down yet another coach/strategy change with Herbert under center. LAC carries a less than 10% chance to make the postseason, currently ranked 14th in the AFC (ahead of only the Patriots and Broncos).

Lamar Jackson

Lamar’s 5 year, $260M contract looks about as good as any out there right now, as the 26 year old has been as advertised through 7 weeks. He’s mostly guaranteed through 2025 right now, with all of $208M through 2026 guaranteeing early over the next few Marches. Baltimore is a Top 5 playoff team heading into Week 8, currently sitting as the #3 seed in the AFC.

Josh Allen

Allen’s 8 year, $284.5M total value contract still seems like a steal for Buffalo, all things considered. He’s fully guaranteed through 2024 & ½ guaranteed through 2025 at $55M right now, with another $10M set to lock in next March. The Bills could potentially consider options on this contract after the 2025 season however. Buffalo’s playoff chances slipped into the 50s with a Week 7 loss in NE, and they hold the 2nd hardest schedule the rest of the way.

Jalen Hurts

It’s good to be in Philly. Hurts’ new deal holds full guarantees through 2026 out of the gate, with nearly $180M practically locked in through 2027. The Eagles now hold the top NFC spot heading toward Week 8, and Hurts is a Top 3 MVP candidate.

Russell Wilson

Just a reminder that Russ could be earning $27M on an expiring contract from Denver this season. Instead, it’s $28M, with $39M more fully guaranteed through 2024, and another $37M set to lock in March 17th. It’s been a much better 2023 than 2022 for Wilson, and he’s hardly Denver’s biggest problem, but money talks loudest. The Broncos sit in the cellar of the AFC currently.

Kyler Murray

Still rehabbing his 2022 knee injury, Murray seems to be in line to return to his starting gig for the foreseeable future. He’s already fully guaranteed through 2024 at $35M, and there are early vesting triggers on every salary and roster bonus through 2027 thereafter. If Murray doesn’t return to form, this contract is going to be a problem for a while. Arizona currently resides at 15th in the NFC, with only 0-6 Carolina in a worse spot.

Deshaun Watson

The real reason we’re having this conversation, as Watson’s injury and overall lackluster play as a whole seems to be nearing surface. This contract remains “in a room over there” when attempting to compare it to anything else, because of the gravity of the deal in combination with how it came to fruition in the first place. But it’s here, it’s real, and it’s spectacular, so it’s important to dissect it whenever necessary. As the season turns to Week 8, this contract holds $138.66M remaining on it - fully guaranteed. Any thoughts of a trade after 2023 must include $62.9M of dead cap for Cleveland, and $138M fully guaranteed transferring to the new team. It’s wild stuff.

Daniel Jones

Jones’ 4 year, $160M contract was always going to be a 2 year, $82M contract until it wasn’t. His $36M salary for 2024 is already fully guaranteed, and everything thereafter is in a pay-as-you-go structure. The Giants are now 13th in the NFC, and trending toward a last place finish in the NFC East.

Matthew Stafford

Fully guaranteed through 2024 at $31M, another $10M from 2025 locks in next March. This situation has calmed down nicely. There’s a pretty real world where the Rams buyout that $10M and move on before 2025, especially with Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp (and likely Sean McVay) all very questionable to be in the mix at that stage. The Rams find themselves just outside the playoff picture heading toward Week 8, with the 16th toughest schedule the rest of the way.

Dak Prescott

Dak has a $5M roster bonus due March 17th, but that’s somewhat inconsequential to the greater story here. Will Prescott get the 2023 Kirk Cousins treatment (no extension, convert salary/roster bonus into signing bonus to lower the cap hit, but keep him on expiring contract), or will Dallas give Dak the 2018-22 Kirk Cousins treatment (small, guaranteed extension to lower the current cap without taking on too much weight down the road). It’s a pretty big 11 weeks in Dallas, who remain in the playoff picture (#6 in the NFC), but also hold the 8th hardest schedule down the stretch.

Keith SmithOctober 20, 2023

Klay Thompson has spent all 12 seasons of his NBA career with the Golden State Warriors. That includes the two seasons when Thompson painstakingly rehabbed from first a torn ACL and then a torn Achilles’ tendon. Given all Thompson and the Warriors have been through together, including winning four titles, it’s hard to imagine Thompson wearing another uniform.

Yet, Thompson and Golden State having seemingly made little progress in extension talks. That leaves Thompson potentially playing out an expiring deal and his future a little unsettled.

Before we get into what Thompson’s next contract could look like, let’s do a little background.

Thompson was drafted by the Warriors at the 2011 NBA Draft. He played out his rookie scale deal, and inked a four-year, $69 million extension. Thompson played that deal out, and then signed a new five-year, $190 million maximum contract in the summer of 2019.

That max deal is the one that is wrapping up now. Golden State signed Thompson to that contract, knowing he’d miss the first season, after he tore his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals. After two missed seasons, Thompson return to help the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals. Now, he’s wrapping up the deal on a $43.2 million expiring contract for the 2023-24 season.

Thompson is 33 years old. He’ll be 34 when his next contract starts, whether it’s an extension or a new contract. Because Thompson is turning 34 ahead of next season, he’ll avoid bumping into the Over-38 rule by one season. That keeps things much simpler, when we consider the absolute max deal Thompson could ink.

Let’s dive into the various options Thompson and the Warriors have, now and this coming offseason. 

Signing a Veteran Extension this season

Thompson is extension-eligible right now. There’s no waiting period for him to extend with the Warriors. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Thompson will remain extension-eligible through June 30, 2024 (the eve of free agency). Extension-eligible players that are on expiring deals (or have an option for the 2024-25 season) can sign an extension through the end of the league year. Extension-eligible players will multiple years left on their contract can only extend through October 23.

For the Warriors and Thompson, that gives them plenty of time to hammer out a new deal. A max extension for Thompson would look like this:

    • 2024-25: $49,700,000
    • 2025-26: $53,676,000
    • 2026-27: $57,652,000
    • 2027-28: $61,628,000
    • Total: four years, $222,656,000

Thompson is eligible to extend for up to four total season and for 140% of his current salary. That 140% would take Thompson past his max salary, so he would be capped at $49.7 million for the 2024-25 season. That’s the projected 10-plus years of service maximum at 35% of the projected $142 million salary cap. If the cap goes up more than projected, the contract would adjust accordingly.

It’s important to note that this is the maximum amount that Thompson is eligible to extend for right now. It’s not likely he would get quite that much. We’re just setting the parameters here.

Re-signing with the Warriors as a free agent in 2024

If Golden State and Thompson can’t reach agreement on an extension, but they aren’t quite ready to part ways, he’ll be eligible to add a fifth season in a new max contract. The first four seasons would look the same as above, but there would be a fifth season tacked on:

    • 2024-25: $49,700,000
    • 2025-26: $53,676,000
    • 2026-27: $57,652,000
    • 2027-28: $61,628,000
    • 2028-29: $65,604,000
    • Total: five years, $288,260,000

This is a five-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max with 8% raises. Being able to add that fifth year makes a major difference, even if it’s unlikely that this contract would end up at that level.

One important note: If Thompson were to sign a new contract, as opposed to an extension, he’d be eligible to add a rare negotiated no-trade clause into his new deal. To date, only Bradley Beal (now of the Phoenix Suns) has a negotiated no-trade clause. Thompson would not be able to add a no-trade in an extension, because his current contract does not include a no-trade clause.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

If things get really sideways and Thompson leaves the Warriors, here’s what a max deal with another team would look like:

    • 2024-25: $49,700,000
    • 2025-26: $52,185,000
    • 2026-27: $54,670,000
    • 2027-28: $57,155,000
    • Total: four years, $213,710,000

That’s a 35% of the cap maximum contract, but limited to four years and 5% raises. In comparison to the extension Thompson could sign, he’d be leaving almost $9 million total on the table. And, of course, Thompson could only get a fifth year from the Warriors in a new contract.

Summary

As we said before, it’s really hard to imagine Klay Thompson playing out his career in anything but a Golden State Warriors jersey. The Warriors took care of Draymond Green this summer, despite rumors that a separation could happen. And, of course, Stephen Curry is signed through the 2025-26 season.

Curry is Curry, but Green’s new contract could be a possible signpost for where Thompson’s next deal ends up.

Even as he’s aged, Green has remained a productive player. He no longer brings that Defensive Player of the Year impact every game, but he summons it when necessary. And he’s still a good playmaker, rebounder and leader.

Thompson bounced back with a pretty solid season in his return year in 2022. He averaged 20.4 points per game on 43/39/90 shooting splits. That was good enough to be a big part of the Warriors winning the 2022 NBA Finals.

Last season, Thompson was even better. He averaged 21.9 points on 44/41/88 shooting splits. Most importantly, Thompson played in 69 regular season games and held up physically through the team’s second-round playoff exit.

That last part is important, as that’s what should give the Warriors (or, less likely, another team) confidence in giving Thompson a new contract. However, despite us laying out the max terms, Thompson isn’t getting a max deal. Instead, his current $43.2 million contract probably represents a good starting point for an extension.

In recent years, we’ve seen a handful of veteran players do an in-season extension that took their salary down from the prior season. The best example was Al Horford last season. Horford was on an expiring $26.5 million contract with the Boston Celtics. He signed a two-year, $19.5 million extension that runs through this season and next.

Thompson is younger than Horford, and better positioned to not have to take such a drastic pay cut. As laid out above, he’s still extremely productive, and he has a long, championship history with Golden State.

That brings us back to Green and his new contract. He made $25.8 million in 2022-23, before declining a $27.6 million player option for 2023-24. Despite rumors that Green could look to leave the Warriors, he pretty quickly agreed to a four-year, $100 million contract. That deal sees Green make $22.3 million this season, before topping out with a $27.7 million player option in 2026-27.

While Green hasn’t missed seasons like Thompson has, last year’s 73 games were the most he’s played in a single season since 2017. He’s regularly become a guy who will miss 20-30 games a year. Thompson, despite the two missed season, has been a relative ironman. And again, his nightly production is always there. He’s one of the more consistent performers in the NBA from game to game.

Adding it all up, and given the Warriors ever-present massive tax bill, an extension like this seems to make sense for both sides:

    • 2024-25: $35,000,000
    • 2025-26: $32,200,000
    • 2026-27: $29,400,000
    • 2027-28: $26,600,000
    • Total: four years, $123,200,000

That’s the max allowable of four years, but it includes the max allowable 8% declines each season. As this extension would run through Thompson’s age-34 through age-37 seasons, it’s fair to expect some drop-off in his play. Having the contract mirror that makes sense. If Thompson wants a player option on that final season, that’s fair. Green got one on his new deal, and Andrew Wiggins got one in the extension he signed last summer. If that's the case, the final season would need to be for the same amount as the preceding season. This is because a player option can't be for less salary than the prior season was for. That would boost Thompson's contract to a slight bit more.

For Thompson, this locks in more money than Green got, which seems fair, given his durability and overall impact. It also aligns the team to have Thompson, Curry, Green and Wiggins all signed through at least the 2025-26 seasons.

If it’s more important for the Warriors to keep the tax bill in check right now, especially given the new second apron restrictions, they could structure a traditional deal that looks like this:

    • 2024-25: $27,500,000
    • 2025-26: $29,700,000
    • 2026-27: $31,900,000
    • 2027-28: $34,100,000
    • Total: four years, $123,200,000

The overall money is exactly the same, but the contract starts lower and goes up the max allowed 8% per year. Again, a player option on the final season is a fair concession by Golden State.

This type of structure would help the Warriors lower their overall team salary into a range where getting under the second apron entirely is possible.

In reality, Golden State and Thompson will likely agree to a total salary number, and then the Warriors can structure the deal in whatever way they deem most beneficial. There are plusses and minuses to both approaches. A lot depends on how much the team cares about dodging the second apron in the immediate, balanced against creating some flexibility further down the line.

In the end, an extension makes the most sense for both Thompson and the Warriors. There’s no reason to make him play out the season in limbo, and possibly creating unnecessary drama approaching free agency in July. For Thompson, sacrificing making the most possible money to lock in security for the remainder of his career makes sense too. Look for both sides to eventually find that middle ground and to get a deal done before the end of the season.

 

Keith SmithOctober 19, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next week or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Denver Nuggets

Is backup point guard a problem? 

The Nuggets starting five is right up there with the best in the NBA. All five players complement each other well and there’s a good mix of offense and defense. Behind them, things get a little shakier. No more so than at backup point guard.

After Denver traded away Monte Morris, this spot was messy last year. Bones Hyland got the primary opportunity, and he was dealt away at the trade deadline, in part because he wasn’t meshing as hoped for. The Nuggets added Reggie Jackson after he worked a buyout, and he re-signed with the team this past offseason, but is Jackson really the answer behind Jamal Murray?

Jackson played in 16 regular season games with Denver last year and he struggled. Jackson couldn’t make shots and wasn’t very good on defense. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the 12-year veteran was only getting garbage time minutes.

The Nuggets gave Jackson the entirety of their $5 million Taxpayer MLE in free agency. That qualified as one of the summer’s more surprising signings. Most had Jackson pegged as a veteran minimum guy. It’s possible that Denver plussed up Jackson’s contract, in exchange for him waiving his ability to block a trade. If so, that makes a lot of sense. His contract could allow Denver to do some things they wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise in trades.

On the court, Jackson could bounce back. 16 games and 319 minutes is hardly a big sample size. And the prior couple of seasons, Jackson was pretty solid in a much bigger role than anyone could have predicted with the LA Clippers.

If Jackson can’t turn it around, Denver is pretty thin at the position. Rookie guard Jalen Pickett could probably give Denver some minutes. Pickett has good size for the position and he’s a solid playmaker. He was a very streaky shooter in college, and rookies are rarely ready defensively. But Pickett comes in as a five-year college player. So, he should be more ready than most rookies to play NBA minutes.

Collin Gillespie is back on a two-way deal, after missing his entire first year with an injury. But he shot it terribly at Summer League and hasn’t hit much better in the preseason. Gillespie’s college profile was that of a good shooter though, so we aren’t going to write him off yet.

In reality, Denver’s offense is different from any other in the NBA. Their primary playmaker is their center. Murray is a point guard in name only, as he makes most of his impact as a scorer and shooter. That lessens the needs for a high-end backup ballhandler. But if Murray needs rest, either in-game or for a night off, someone has to step up. Jackson will get the first opportunity, but don’t be surprised if Pickett ultimately snags the role as Murray’s backup.

What about the rest of the bench? 

Denver lost Bruce Brown, who was a key contributor to their title run. They also lost Jeff Green to the Houston Rockets, and Vlatko Cancar will miss this season after a torn ACL over the summer.

Christian Braun will step in as the replacement for Brown. Denver is high on Braun, and he got a lot of experience as a rotation guy on last season’s title team. He looks ready for a bigger role this year.

We covered the backup point guard spot above, but that leaves another forward spot open and a backup big man spot available. The Nuggets are poised to rely on younger players to fill both roles.

Peyton Watson has been the talk of the offseason, and he seems like he’ll get a shot at rotation minutes at the perimeter forward spot. Rookie first-rounder Julian Strawther has been terrific in the preseason, following a strong Summer League. Strawther is going to factor into the rotation sooner, rather than later. Those two will probably wage a head-to-head battle for minutes. Let the best defender, cutter and shooter win.

Behind Nikola Jokic, things are a lot more in question. DeAndre Jordan re-signed for another run, but he’s more of a locker room presence than an on-court one. If pressed into action, Jordan will provide some rugged defense, rebounding and solid screening. But Jordan’s career is closer to the end than his productive prime years.

The Nuggets would love for Zeke Nnaji to seize the backup five role. His shooting ability would be a nice fit on the second unit. But last season was a mess for Nnaji. He battled injuries and some really shaky shooting. Denver needs to see him return to the form of his first two seasons before they can feel good about running him out on the floor for 15 minutes a night.

Justin Holiday was signed to provide some veteran depth, and a shooting presence. He’ll step in if one of the younger wings isn’t quite ready for their role. The Nuggets are also high on Hunter Tyson, who was drafted in the second round. He might see some minutes too, akin to the situations that Strawther and Jalen Pickett are in.

Mostly, if no one steps forward, look for Calvin Booth to swing a trade to fill a hole. It might mean moving on from a younger player or two, but such is life when you’re on top and everyone is trying to take you down.

Minnesota Timberwolves

How will the perimeter rotation shake out? 

The Wolves starting group is set with Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley in the backcourt and Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels up front. Behind them, Minnesota has talent, but it might take a bit for roles to become defined. Nowhere is that truer than on the perimeter.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is back, and he’ll grab one wing/guard spot. Newcomers Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton will be in the mix too. Given teams generally start with an expanded rotation, it’s likely all three will play minutes in the early part of the season. Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson are entrenched as the frontcourt backups.

The real question is if Jordan McLaughlin (in and out of the rotation in his four seasons in Minnesota) or Wendell Moore (coming off a forgettable rookie season) can steal rotation roles. McLaughlin is more of a pure point guard than either Alexander-Walker or Milton. Moore needs to make shots to have a chance at seeing some wing minutes. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Minott. He’s got a really intriguing mix of skill and size. He did some things on the G League level that could project to NBA production. He’s a sleeper rotation candidate to watch.

Who is the backup point guard? 

We touched on this above, but we’ll expand on it here. This is basically a three-way, and really a two-way, battle between Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Shake Milton and Jordan McLaughlin.

Alexander-Walker spent the first few seasons of his career as a theoretical big point guard. He never quite fit that mold though, and it took until last season for him to really find a foothold in the league. Alexander-Walker leaned into being a 3&D player, who could also do some secondary ballhandling. The Wolves seem to see him more in that role, so we’ll take Alexander-Walker out of the mix behind Mike Conley.

Jordan McLaughlin is the holdover. After flashing late in his pandemic-shortened rookie season, McLaughlin snagged a rotation role in his second year. Unfortunately, each of the last two seasons have seen him backslide some. McLaughlin stopped making his outside shots, in addition to battling a midseason injury last season. If he starts making jumpers again, McLaughlin will use his combination of playmaking ability and pesky defense to force his way back on the floor.

Milton is kind of an opposite of McLaughlin. He’s got more size and he’s a better shooter. But he’s only a so-so playmaker and his defense has never really been more than passable. Milton brings the added benefit of being able to play on the wing, where McLaughlin is more of an on-ball guard.

The guess here is that Milton gets sort of the first crack, as his shooting ability can help open up the floor Anthony Edwards and the Wolves big man. But McLaughlin will crack the rotation at some point. He just makes thing happen. And if McLaughlin makes shots, he’ll be hard to take out of the mix.

Oklahoma City Thunder

What is the rotation going to look like? 

Mark Daigneault used his first two seasons as Oklahoma City head coach perfectly. He experimented with lineups and player combinations relentlessly. Even last year, when the Thunder were ahead of schedule as far as being a competitive team, Daigneault kept testing and adjusting his rotation and groupings.

Now, Oklahoma City is here (but hot HERE here just yet) and there are some expectations for this group. That likely means there isn’t as much room for experimentation. But that’s not really a problem. Daigneault knows what talent he has now.

The starting five appears set. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star, Jalen Williams (the wing one) is headed in that direction. Josh Giddey’s funky slashing, do-a-little-of-everything game just fits, while Lu Dort is the team’s perimeter stopper. Chet Holmgren joins them for his delayed rookie season. If preseason is any example, he’s the fifth finger in a pretty well-fit glove.

Behind those five, things are more unsettled. Jaylin Williams (the big one) will be Holmgren’s backup when he gets back from a what seems to be a minor injury. Kenrich Williams is going to find his way on the floor, because he’s too impactful not to. Presumably, Vasilije Micic didn’t come over to sit on the bench, so he’ll snag a backup guard role. And Isaiah Joe brings deadeye shooting to a roster short on that skill.

Maybe it’s that simple. That’s Daigneault’s nine-man rotation. But something says that’s shortsighted. Too many other guys are simply too good to just be completely out of the mix

Ousmane Dieng is all limbs and potential. He’s going to factor in, if for no other reason so OKC can see what they have him. Dieng had some nice games over the final quarter of his rookie season, and the Thunder will want to see if that carries over.

Aaron Wiggins might not jump out at you right away, but if you take a deeper look, you’ll find a lot to like. Wiggins will unleash the occasional highlight jam, but he’s more than that. Wiggins is a good finisher around the rim, and he knocked down 39.3% of his threes last season. He’s also a competitive defender. It’s hard to see him getting completely shelved.

Tre Mann and rookie Cason Wallace are going to put pressure on Micic for backup guard minutes. Mann took a step back with a less consistent role in his second season than he had in his rookie year. But he can still score, and there’s a playmaker in there that’s ready to break out. Wallace is your typical Kentucky guard. He’s a little shaky on offense, but you get the feeling he can do more than he showed while in college. And you love the toughness, the defensive tenacity and the willingness to mix it up on the boards, despite a lack of size. He just screams that he’ll find his way on the floor eventually.

If we count in the top-nine guys and combine them with Dieng, Wiggins, Mann and Wallace, we’re already at 13 guys. And we haven’t even touched on Davis Bertans (a prototypical Thunder reclamation project) and Aleksej Pokusevski (currently injured and in danger of becoming an unrealized project).

In a very real sense, Oklahoma City has 15 guys who can play. That’s incredible considering this team was torn down to the studs just a couple of years ago. But the days of all 15 guys playing somewhat regularly, because the team was mixing and matching game to game, are over. Look for the top-nine we called out to be the regulars, with the others slotting in as matchups, injuries or ineffectiveness open up minutes.

That means Mark Daigneault might be having some difficult conversations, but he’s up for it. And, more importantly, minutes will be fully earned on this team moving forward. That’s an exciting place for a franchise to be in as they go from rebuilding to competing.

Who gets cut? 

The Thunder have taken care of this to some extent throughout the course of the offseason. They moved on from Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington, after acting as a clearinghouse for their contracts this summer. Both have potential, but the rest of the league wasn’t as all over either player as suggested, as both Garuba and Washington are on two-way deals now.

Oklahoma City further cleaned things up by trading Victor Oladipo (really his $9.45 million contract) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to the Houston Rockets. In exchange, the Thunder waive Kevin Porter Jr. and ate his contract, while picking up two more future second-round picks for Sam Presti’s stash. Oladipo might have been an easy cut, but Robinson-Earl has played real minutes for the Thunder and they might not wanted to have moved on simply by waiving him.

That leaves one tough cut to make. At this point, it looks like Jack White could be the one on the outside looking in. The Thunder thought highly enough of White to give him $600,000 in guaranteed money this summer. Maybe the thought was that something would open up to keep him around. As of this writing, that hasn’t happened. It’s hard to see the team waiving anyone else.

Maybe, and it’s a major maybe, the team is ready to move on from Aleksej Pokusevski. The developmental minutes that Pokusevski needs no longer seem available. He also doesn’t seem to be in line for a contract extension. If the Thunder are done waiting on his potential, Poku’s days could be numbered.

We’ll guess it’s White, which is somewhat unfortunate. His guarantee is too large for him to play for Oklahoma City’s G League affiliate. That means White will be off elsewhere for next season. But it just seems like the team won’t ties with Pokusevski…yet.

Portland Trail Blazers

Who is the fifth starter? 

Four starting spots are spoken for in Portland. Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are going to start in the backcourt. Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant are starting up front. That means the wing spot is up for grabs.

Shaedon Sharpe has the most long-term potential, but that would leave the Blazers starting three guards. That means they’ll be undersized and lacking some defense. A lineup of Henderson, Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton will hopefully see lots of minutes, but it might not open games.

That means Matisse Thybulle is probably the best bet to start games. He’s easily the best defensive player on the roster. Yes, that’s a low bar to clear, but Thybulle leaps over it with ease anyway. And in 22 games with Portland, Thybulle shot 38.8% on 3.9 three-point attempts per game. That’s really, really intriguing.

The defense will probably get Thybulle the first crack at the starting spot, but the shooting will keep him in it. If he regresses as a shooter, and defenses start making things too hard on Ayton to work in the paint and to easy to collapse on Henderson drives, Sharpe might wedge his way in there.

There’s also a slight chance that Chauncy Billups might want to go big and will start Robert Williams next to Ayton, while pushing Grant to the three. That’s worth experimenting with, but probably not as a starting group. That would really shrink the floor a lot, and that makes life harder than it needs to be on Henderson and Simons to get the offensive moving. But for a few minutes here and there, it’s worth checking out.

One last thing to keep an eye on, but further down the line: Sharpe starting over Simons. There are some who believe that Simons best role on a winning team will be as a high-volume sixth man. Think Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams. This space isn’t going to tell you that Simons should go to the bench. We’re big fans of his. But if Portland wants to experiment late in a lottery season, they could give it a shot.

Could the bench be a strength? 

Either Shaedon Sharpe or Matisse Thybulle is going to come off the bench. We’re guessing Robert Williams will do the same. Malcolm Brogdon is going to play too, for however long he’s in Portland. Kris Murray has some potential as a ready-to-play rookie, and Jabari Walker flashed at times as a rookie.

Even if it’s just the Sharpe/Thybulle non-starter, Williams and Brogdon that contribute as reserves, that’s pretty good. That’s better than some playoff teams will feature. There’s even a chance that we could see Portland’s starting group bleed points, while the backups come in and cut into leads. Both lineups are built for that sort of potential.

If nothing else, on the nights when the Blazers starters do hand off a lead, the bench shouldn’t immediately hand it back. That’s always a positive on a young team, as it keeps from frustration creeping in. Frustration with holding leads often ends up in younger players taking on a Thanos-like approach of “Fine. I’ll do it myself.” And that never leads anywhere good, whether it be for young players or Thanos.

Utah Jazz

What does the guard rotation look like? 

The Utah Jazz have a lot of guys who can play. For a team in Year 2 of a rebuild, Utah is pretty well stocked. Most know the frontcourt is deep in options, but the guard group is actually even more of an open competition.

After Mike Conley was traded at the deadline, the most-common starting guards were Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker. They are both back, as is Collin Sexton, who suffered through an injury-plagued season. Kris Dunn, who experience a major career rejuvenation, is also returning. That’s already four-deep, but there’s more.

Ochai Agbaji is a pure wing, but most of his minutes came at the two, as part of jumbo-sized lineups. And Keyonte George looks like he’s going to make it very hard to keep him off the floor as a rookie.

If we take Agbaji out of the mix and assume he’ll see more minutes at the three this year, that’s still five guys for four spots. Injuries might open up minutes for someone, but this a delicate situation for Will Hardy to sort through.

Horton-Tucker is on an expiring deal, as is Dunn. They’re both going to want chances to show what they can do. Sexton has three years left on his contract, and Clarkson added two years to his deal too.  That makes them at least somewhat a part of the longer-term future in Utah. It’s also safe to assume the Jazz are going to want to see what they have in George at some point.

It’s been rumored that teams have called on Horton-Tucker. Moving him could add to Danny Ainge’s already overflowing treasure chest of draft picks, while opening up minutes in the backcourt. After four years, it’s clear that Horton-Tucker is a solid all-around player, but he’s a “jack of all trades, master of none” guy. And his lack of shooting won’t allow him to play the on-ball minutes he needs on a good team. If someone has to move out of the rotation, and Dunn’s offense from last season carries over, Horton-Tucker makes sense as the odd man out.

For now, Hardy can keep mixing and matching, while spotting guys rest days here and there. But that will wear thin relatively quickly. Figuring out which guards complement a talented frontcourt long-term is near the top of the to-do list for this season.

Will the rookies get to play? 

We touched on it above with Keyonte George, but it’s going to be just as hard for Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh to find minutes. It’s no longer a guarantee in the NBA that first-round-pick status means you get entitlement minutes. Teams don’t function that way anymore, unless they are really bad, or at the end of a lost season.

That means George, Hendricks and Sensabaugh will have earned any minutes they get. That’s not a bad thing, as you want to them to have to compete from Day 1. But young players, who have been stars or main cogs for their entire lives, can get frustrated if they are sitting game after game.

We already covered how George will have to fight his way through a crowded guard group. If Hendricks wants to play, he’ll have to show that he can do it at the three. Walker Kessler will play all of his minutes at the five, but the four will feature some combination of John Collins (in the big starting group), Lauri Markkanen (in smaller, more traditional lineups) and Kelly Olynyk (when he’s not backing up Kessler). That leaves very little room for Hendricks to play what looks like his natural position.

But if Hendricks can defend on the perimeter enough, shoot it well enough and do a little bit of ballhandler, he can find minutes behind Markkanen at the three. Because he missed Summer League with an injury, we’ve only seen some small preseason glimpses of Hendricks. He very much remains a mystery box.

As for Sensabaugh, it’s hard to see how he’ll see many minutes as a rookie. He’s played even less than Hendricks. Barring something unexpected, it’s a good bet that Sensabaugh sees more minutes in the G League than the NBA this season.

Again, it’s not a bad thing if the Jazz rookies aren’t gifted minutes right out of the gate. But if you were expecting to see immediate fruits from this draft class, you’re going to be disappointed. There’s a good deal of ripening that will need to happen, maybe even a full season’s worth. But it should pay off with three good players that can fill rotation holes as the roster evolves over the next few years.

 

Michael GinnittiOctober 18, 2023

The NFL Trade Deadline is less than two weeks away, with the window to move player set to close at 4PM ET, Halloween day. We’ll dive into a few names rumored to be on the trade block this month, including the financial ramifications associated with a move.

QUARTERBACKS

Not much to see here honestly (as per usual with starting QBs at the trade deadline). Minnesota will need to bottom out and be blown away by an offer to honestly consider moving Cousins, and Tennessee would need to pay down most of Tannehill’s remaining $15M to even begin to get sniffs. If you told me a few experienced backups (Jameis Winston, Mason Rudolph) found a new home by November, that wouldn’t be too surprising.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)

Minnesota converted $20M of Cousins’ 2023 compensation into signing bonus prior to the season, leaving just a $10M base salary to operate with. They’ll be $5.5M of it remaining at the deadline should he truly hit the block. He projects to a 3 year, $117M contract in our system currently.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)

Tannehill’s QB Rating is at a career low 71 entering Week 7, and an ankle injury, plus a $15M deadline salary could be far too much for another team to swallow, even if just as a rental.

RUNNING BACKS

Kind of get the feeling this list is going to grow significantly as we get closer to Halloween, but for now, these players at least have a legitimate reason to be on the trade block. 

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

The 29 year old is in a contract year in Tennessee, who have begun to sell off pieces at this deadline. The productive as ever running back carries a $5.8M deadline salary.

Rashaad Penny (RB, PHI)

Penny finds himself 4th on the Philly depth chart heading toward the deadline, but a $670,000 deadline salary could make him attractive to teams in need.

Dalvin Cook (RB, NYJ)

It’s been weird right? Cook was always going to be insurance for Breece Hall, but at this stage it just seems like he’s an extra body in the room. He’ll carry about $3.6M remaining on his 1 year contract at the deadline, including per-game active bonuses.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB, TB)

Fournette leaving was supposed to vault Vaughn into a big role for Tampa, but it’s been much of the same for the former #76 pick. A change of scenery to finish off his rookie contract ($672,770 deadline salary) seems a good fit here.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)

Last year’s breakout star is now averaging only 3 yards per rushing attempt, and is on pace to catch 20 less balls than he did in 2022. Is it a back to earth situation? Is he missing the viable 1-2 punch that Damien Harris afforded him? Stevenson holds $522,222 at the deadline, with a non-guaranteed $1,055,000 available in 2024.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

CEH’s usage has been much better to start 2023 than it has been in recent years (likely to account for Jerick McKinnon’s disappearing act thus far). Has he proved himself to be a viable weapon for this KC team down the stretch? The final year of his rookie contract holds a $1,103,150 salary at this year’s deadline.

WIDE RECEIVERS

This list is loaded with talented WRs who, for the most part, are either stuck on bad rosters, or buried in a depth chart right now. Feels like at least three of these will be changing cities in the next two weeks.

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Sutton was rumored to be in trade talks prior to the season, so it only makes sense to include him here now with the Denver situation not much improved. He’s in Year 3 of a 5 year, $62M contract, including an $8,042,476 salary for the remainder of 2023. None of the 2 years, $27.5M remaining thereafter comes with an early guarantee.

Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)

Jeudy posted career numbers in 2022, but he’s done little to hold up his end of the #15 overall draft selection. It didn’t stop Denver from exercising his 5th-year-option for 2024, meaning a trade at the deadline would send along $1,489,871 guaranteed for the rest of 2023, & $12,987,000 fully guaranteed in 2024.

Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)

Hollywood is having his healthiest and most productive season in a few years right now, despite a makeshift offense being thrown together in Arizona. There’s a world where he’s a part of their future, and this is an extension conversation instead of a trade one. But if not, paying down some of the $7,451,666 remaining on this deal to acquire a strong draft pick makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals.

Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)

On paper, Thielen penned a 3 year, $25M free agent contract with Carolina this past March, but from a guarantee standpoint it’s essentially a 1 year, $14.5M deal. An acquiring team would take on around $900,000 for this season, with a $4M guarantee built into his 2024 compensation. Doable, but not likely?

K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN)

Justin Jefferson’s injury might make this a less viable move for Minnesota, but Osborn is playing out the final year of his rookie contract, and his $1.5M deadline salary could be attractive to a contender in need.

Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)

He’s just a year and a half removed from a 103 catch, 9 TD season for the Raiders, but has fallen completely out of favor in terms of targets & subsequent production. There’s about $3.9M left on his 2023 compensation when you factor in per-game-active bonuses, so Las Vegas might benefit from paying that down a bit to secure a larger draft pick in return. None of Renfrow’s $11.8M for 2024 contains an early guarantee.

Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE)

He’s on pace for a career high in targets & receptions, so the Patriots have at least made a bigger attempt to incorporate his services this year. A $3M deadline salary may be too rich for some teams, but it’s possible New England can flip Bourne in the coming days.

Parris Campbell (WR, NYG)

The Giants took a flier on the former 2nd rounder with an incentive-laden showcase deal, but honestly, it’s tough to imagine a team taking on the $1.9M cap hit to acquire the 26-year-old at this deadline.

Terrace Marshall (WR, CAR)

Carolina drafted Marshall #59 overall back in 2021 but have received little to no return on investment since then. A change of scenery makes sense here for Marshall, who carries a $614,367 deadline salary for the rest of 2023, then a non-guaranteed $1,441,294 in 2024.

Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL)

Duvernay still holds plenty of value as the leading return man in Baltimore, but his targets as a receiver have almost completely gone by the wayside. With a $2.4M deadline salary, it seems most likely that he remains with the Ravens to complete his rookie contract.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE)

DPJ took a nice step forward in 2022, posting career highs across the board and making him one of the more notable “breakout” candidates for 2023. It hasn’t worked out that way, leaving an underutilized 24-year-old WR on an expiring contract seeking a bigger role elsewhere. His $1.5M deadline salary shouldn’t be too daunting to move this month.

TIGHT ENDS

Not much to write home about here, and New England moving on from Henry is probably a long shot, but Ertz latching on to a contender to (likely) finish off his career should be considered a must move.

Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)

Ertz is in Year 2 of a 3 year, $31.5M contract in Arizona, but none of his $10M for 2024 is guaranteed right now. Barring any retained salary from the Cardinals, an acquiring team would take on $5.1M to bring in Ertz at the deadline.

Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

If the Patriots truly decide to rip the band-aid off on their expiring contracts, Henry could very much be in demand. A $5.8M deadline salary could be too rich for many, but New England may be willing to help lower that number a bit to get something done.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

Bolles is a viable starting tackle, but he’s been publicly calling out the coaching staff in Denver of late. That’s generally a sign that the relationship isn’t going to continue much longer. Cleveland & Onwenu are on expiring contracts and could return mid-to-late draft picks before they hit the open market.

Garett Bolles (OL, DEN)

Bolles is in Year 4 of a 5 year, $70M contract, but none of his $16M set in 2024 is guaranteed right now. An acquiring team would be looking at $8.6M for the rest of 2023, making this one a tough sell for Denver.

Ezra Cleveland (OL, MIN)

Cleveland currently sits as a Top 10 rated Guard according to PFF, so it’s not crazy to think that Minnesota could be considering an extension out of his expiring rookie contract instead of a trade, but it seems like everyone might be on the table for the Vikings this week in some capacity. Cleveland carries a $1.6M deadline salary.

Mike Onwenu (OL, NE)

Onwenu had a strong start to his career in New England, but appears to be sliding in terms of future with the organization. He carries a $1.6M deadline salary in the final year of his rookie contract.

DEFENDERS

Honestly, there’s a lot more smoke than fire here with many of these names, but it stands to reason that a player or two on an expiring contract should be flipped for a draft asset. 

Brian Burns (DE, CAR)

If news breaks that Brian Burns has been traded this month, be prepared for a trade compensation package that comes with shock and awe, because that seems to be the only way Carolina gives up on this relationship midseason. Burns is playing out his $16M 5th-year-option in 2023, with free agency or a franchise tag ahead of him next March. His deadline salary comes in just under $8.9M.

Chase Young (DE, WAS)

After Washington declined Young’s 5th-year-option for 2024, it seemed the writing was on the wall for his future with the Commanders. But he’s played well to start the 2023 campaign, making a deadline trade less likely than originally thought. His $2.95M deadline salary will certainly attract some attention either way.

Carl Lawson (DE, NYJ)

Lawson missed all of 2021, but then posted 7 sacks in 2022 to resurrect his tenure with the Jets. A slow start to 2023, plus an extremely tradable $600,000 deadline salary makes this one of the more likely moves.

Julian Okwara (LB, DET)

The former 3rd rounder finds himself buried in the Lions depth chart right now as he returns from an early season knee injury. Now on an expiring rookie contract, look for Detroit to seek a late round draft pick in exchange for his friendly $712,475 deadline salary.

Danielle Hunter (LB, MIN)

Hunter seems to find his name on every trade list, and maybe rightfully so (8 sacks, 32 tackles, 1 forced fumble, in 350 snaps). But his $6.3M deadline salary (including per game active bonuses) is a bigger number than we’re used to seeing move midseason. Will Minnesota pay it down a bit to make him an easier acquisition?

Preston Smith (LB, GB)

Smith just locked in a 4 year extension in March of 2022, but it feels like the Packers could be reshuffling quite a few roster spots in the coming months - especially if they fall out of contention in 2023. Smith is a get to the quarterback player with a $965,000 deadline salary (and no guarantees on his future $39.9M). Somebody’s calling.

Jerry Hughes (LB, HOU)

Hughes was a big part of a transitioning Houston team in 2022, but his role has reduced now that many young players are starting to flourish in starting positions. There’s plenty reason for the Texans to keep him around for the rest of 2023, but if he seeks a larger role elsewhere, his $1.26M deadline salary isn’t too daunting.

Jaylon Johnson (CB, CHI)

I’m on record stating that the Bears need to be thinking core players, not flashy weapons, so I’m in what appears to be a minority that feels as though the Bears should be looking to lock in their talented CB on an expiring contract. But if the trade compensation is too good to pass up, the acquiring team can have him at $1.6M for the rest of the season.

Adoree' Jackson (CB, NYG)

It feels like the Giants are nearing sell-mode, and Jackson’s expiring contract would certainly qualify as a candidate for that. It’s a $6.6M investment to take on the former #18 overall pick for the rest of 2023.

Kaiir Elam (CB, BUF)

To say that Elam and the Bills haven’t been a match made in heaven since he was selected #23 overall back in 2022 is an understatement. Sure it’s still early, and yes he’s only 22 years old, but the BIlls aren’t in a window to wait around for anybody - and Tre’Davious White’s potential career-ending injury expedited a need to get bigger and better at this position. A move at the deadline comes with $737,394 for the rest of 2023, $1,949,619 in 2024, & $2,571,929 - all fully guaranteed.

Harrison Smith (S, MIN)

Toss 11-year vet Smith into the “if the Vikings fire sell” bucket. The 34-year-old is under contract through 2025, but the next two seasons are “fluffy” in terms of guarantee. For all intents and purposes, this is a 1 year, $4.4M rental.

Xavier McKinney (S, NYG)

A healthy McKinney is an above average safety in this league, and that’s exactly what he’s been in 2023. The former #36 overall pick is on an expiring rookie contract, holding a $974,574 salary at the deadline. NY should be extending him, not shopping him.

Michael GinnittiOctober 17, 2023

The New York Mets' historic payroll and seemingly immediate collapse in 2023 has quickly turned Pete Alonso’s future with the organization into a bit of a soap opera. The 28-year-old first baseman will be entering his third and final arbitration year in 2024, putting the onus on the franchise to pay, trade, & deal with another Scott Boras client heading into the open market.

We’ll assess option number 1 here, projecting the current value of a long-term extension for Pete Alonso and the New York Mets this winter.

Alonso’s Resume

Pete Alonso enters the final stretch toward free agency as a 3X All Star, Rookie of the Year, with two seasons (2019, & 2022) where he was one of the best power hitters in all of baseball. He carries an .870 career OPS, averaging 25 doubles, 41 homers, and 155 games played over the past 3 seasons. 6.6% of the time he’s come to bat in 5 seasons, he’s hit a home run. The league average over that span is 3.3%. Defensively, Alonso carries a .992 career fielding percentage, compiling only 39 errors in 621 games as an everyday first baseman.

The Next Judge Contract, Right?

Not so fast. It’s easy to get caught in the “next-man-up” mentality when it comes to elite sports contracts (mostly because many leagues are operating this way), but the numbers tell a very different story here.

When we (at Spotrac) evaluate players for an extension or free agent contract, we focus solely on a player’s previous two seasons of production. 

PLAYER GP% H/GM RBI/GM SO/GM OPS WOBP ISO WAR
Rafael Devers
21-22, BOS
91.67 1.11 0.68 0.87 0.885 0.38 0.24 4.13
Manny Machado
21-22, SD
93.52 1.09 0.69 0.78 0.867 0.37 0.22 5.9
Carlos Correa
21-22, MIN
87.65 1.08 0.55 0.83 0.840 0.37 0.19 6.76
Aaron Judge
21-22, NYY
94.14 1.1 0.75 1.09 1.016 0.43 0.32 8.15
AVERAGE 91.75 1.1 0.67 0.89 0.9 0.39 0.24 6.24
Pete Alonso
22-23, NYM
96.91 0.91 0.79 0.89 0.846 0.36 0.27 3.56

If we place Alonso’s last two seasons of work up against 4 recently signed contracts, we find a lot of comparable production - with the exception of Aaron Judge. Judge’s 2021-2022 output was simply unmatched, with Shohei Ohtani as the only player who can even hold a candle to the type of numbers you’re seeing here.

Is there a logical argument for Alonso to seek Aaron Judge’s $40M per year simply based on intangible value? Maybe. But the math certainly says otherwise.

So where does Pete’s value actually fall into place?

The Average Annual Value

Unfortunately, this metric still drives much of MLB, as it (usually) equates to the luxury tax salary associated with a contract. Right now, baseball has 10 position players operating at $30M or more on average, with Aaron Judge’s $40M the leader in the clubhouse. Just based on the eye test alone, we can assume Alsono will fit somewhere among this group.

Top 10 Average Annual Salaries (Position Players)

  1. Aaron Judge, $40M
  2. Mike Trout, $35.5M
  3. Anthony Rendon, $35M
  4. Francisco Lindor, $34.1M
  5. Carlos Correa, $33.3M
  6. Nolan Arenado, $32.5M
  7. Corey Seager, $32.5M
  8. Manny Machado, $31.8M
  9. Rafael Devers, $31.3M
  10. Mookie Betts, $30.4M

VIEW ALL

Utilizing the statistical comparison above, Alonso is producing about 4% lower than our four comparables, who carry a collectively combined AAV of $34.4M. This brings us to a $33M average salary for Alonso.

The Contract Length

Our contract length projections are determined based on the player’s age, versus the length/age of the four players he’s being compared to in our exercise. A few quick calculations brings us to a 9 year contract for Alonso, or an 8 year extension plus his final arbitration salary (something the Mets have been known to do in order to keep the Year 1 tax salary a little lighter on the books).

A 9 year contract will bring Alonso through his age 37 season, two years earlier than the Aaron Judge deal, which runs through his age 39 season. Could Pete squeeze another year or two out of the Mets here? Probably. Would teams like the Cubs and Giants tack on 1-2 years in a free agent offer next winter? Absolutely.

It should also be noted that Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor’s contract also runs through his age 37 season (2031).

The First Baseman Effect

Our math is telling us that Alonso should secure a 9 year, $297M contract extension this winter. Let’s round that up to $300M for good measure (it’s not our money).

Francisco Lindor signed a 10 year, $341M contract as a post arbitration extension (he played out his final year of arbitration before this deal kicked in). Lindor was one year younger when he penned this contract, so adjusting for that calculates to 9 years, $307Mt. In other words, these predicted numbers for Alonso appear to be in the ballpark from a Mets standpoint. But what about from a First Baseman standpoint?

Alonso projects to a near $22M salary for the upcoming 2024 season (based on arbitration calculations). Matt Olson (who just completed one of the most productive seasons a 1st Baseman has posted in years), will be playing on $22M a year for the next 6 seasons in Atlanta.

Freddie Freeman, a perennial MVP candidate, operated at $21M per year through his first five free agent seasons, then upped it to $27M per year for his next six.

Paul Goldschmidt, a 7X All star, 5X Silver Slugger, 4X Gold Glover, 1X MVP, took two years of free agency at $13M per year, then doubled it to $26M for his next 5 seasons.

These are the top numbers being handed out to the most productive First Basemen in baseball. If I told you that $27M per year is the current high AAV, is Alonso’s $33M projection now crazy? In this arena, the logical “next man up” mantra could be levied at $28M per year, or a 9 year, $250M+ extension.

It should also be noted that when comparing Alonso to these upper echelon first baseman from a more advanced standpoint (WOBP, WRC+, ISO, etc…), Alonso more or less sits in the middle of the pack.

Advanced Batting 1B Comparisons

Player SLG wOBA wRC+ ISO
Freddie Freeman .514 .383 142 .213
Paul Goldschmidt .519 .385 142 .227
Matt Olson .522 .367 135 .266
Pete Alonso .528 .363 133 .277

So while math places Alonso with the Lindors, Devers, & to some degree Judges of the world from a productivity standpoint, MLB front offices are still “devaluing” contracts based on position. While shortstops & third basemen still have no trouble resetting their market on an annual basis, many of the other positions have settled into “value” lanes.

Predicted Outcome

Can Alonso buck this trend and separate himself from these mid-20 numbers, or will he need to conform with the positional lines and accept a deal that would be considered far below his expected value? Conventional 1st Base thinking says he plays out his $22M salary for 2024, then takes on another 8 years, $225M for the remainder of his career.

We’ll follow the breadcrumbs in Queens and predict a larger than normal number, where the Mets buy out his final year of arbitration, converting that price tag into a signing bonus, finalizing a total contract at $30M per year.

9 years, $270M from 2024-2032, including a $22M signing bonus

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