Michael GinnittiApril 29, 2021
Michael GinnittiApril 26, 2021

A snapshot look at how much guaranteed cash each notable quarterback has on the contract currently. 5th year options for Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, & Lamar Jackson are due May 3rd, while any vested veteran will see their 2021 salary become fully guaranteed at Week 1. Please note that this differs from the total dead cap figure on a specific contract, as this is simply guaranteed future salary, not any bonus that's already been paid out. Also note that a few of these players have more guarantees that will lock in next March (Watson, Mahomes). 

 

Michael GinnittiMarch 29, 2021

Josh Allen took major steps forward in 2020, and the Bills organization is well built for a multi-year run of contention in the AFC. Buffalo has locked up their LT, RT, LG, & nearly all of their secondary in the past 12 months. Allen’s extension isn’t a matter of if, but when, and when it comes to young QBs, most GMs answer that question with “as soon as possible”.

With TV money now certain to affect the league financials in 2023 and beyond, it makes sense for most of the stars to make themselves available for new negotiation at or around that timeframe. In other words, Allen should be looking for an extension that locks in 3 years, then gives him a chance to renegotiate thereafter.

It’s easy to quickly run to Dak Prescott’s contract as a comparable for the next few QB deals, but that’s not a realistic measure. Dak signed his contract in year 6, as a free agent, with no current years or salary to be concerned with, outside of a placeholder franchise tag. The better comparison here for Josh Allen is Deshaun Watson, who signed a 4 year, $156M extension with the Texans last September that included $73M guaranteed at signing, with $110M practically guaranteed over 4 years.

 

Projected Contract Extension

 

The Length & Total Value

There’s been a lot of back and forth with how long rookie extension contracts should be, especially after Patrick Mahomes locked in a MLB-style deal with Kansas City. Additionally, the popularity of void years could reduce actual years on the backend of some contracts, making them shorter true length, but still with the proration spread that teams desire for cap purposes. With that said, we’ll make this a somewhat traditional extension, 4 years on top of the current year & 5th-year option already attached to his rookie contract.

In terms of money, the current year and 5th year option combine for $26.5M, so that’s our old money starting point. We’ll tack of $168M of new money over 4 new years, or 6 years, $194.5M.

 

Guarantees

Guaranteed at Signing: $78M, Practical Guarantees: $115M
The important stuff. Our projection locks in $78M fully guaranteed at signing, including a signing bonus, and his 2021, 2022, & 2023 base salaries. His $37M 2024 salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2023, giving him an early vest on a 4 year - or chance to convert that 4th year salary into a bonus for his next deal, when the league financials will be very much in his favor to do so.

 

Signing Bonus

2021 Bonus: $25M
The Bills have used a signing & option bonus structure on a few of their most recent larger contracts (Tre’ White, Dion Dawkins), but we’re going to stay away from that with our projection here. Why? By instead placing a rather sizable base salary in 2022 ($20M), we leave the option for Buffalo to restructure that into a signing bonus, which in turn will look and feel like a 2nd year option bonus as needed. The veritable unknown of the 2022 league cap is a bit of a concern here.

 

Cash Flow

Deshaun Watson scored $29M in year one, $39M through year two, $75M through his third contract year, & $110M through year four. The deal we’ve projected for Josh Allen here offers $26M in year 1, $47M through year 2, and over $80M through three years, a sizable jump up.

Total Cash Flow (cumulative)
2021: $26M
2022: $21.01M ($47.01M)
2023: $33.01M ($80.02M)
2024: $38.16M ($118.18M)
2025: $38.16M ($156.34M)
2026: $38.16M ($194.5M)

 

Cap Flow

In pushing to keep 2021 as cap neutral as possible, our projection offers a slight increase of $2.4M to Josh Allen’s hit for the upcoming season. There’s a large jump in 2022 north of $26M, that can certainly be mitigated with a base salary restructure as needed.

Projected Cap Hits
2021: $9.3M
2022: $26M
2023: $38M
2024: $43.1M
2025: $43.1M
2026: $38.1M

 

Rankings

  • The $168M in total value new money would rank 2nd to Mahomes ($450M)
  • The $42M new money average salary would rank 2nd to Mahomes ($45M)
  • The $78M guaranteed at signing would rank 4th, behind Prescott, Ryan, & Rodgers
  • The $115M practically guaranteed would rank 3rd behind Mahomes & Prescott
  • The $80M of 3-year-cash would rank 10th
  • The $118M of 4-year cash would rank 4th
Michael GinnittiMarch 26, 2021

The NBA trade deadline has come and gone and over the course of the week, 20 notable moves were made across the league. Here's a team by team breakdown of players out, players in and both the cap and cash ramifications for each player. (Cap hit that moved, Cash remaining that moved)

 

Team 20-21 Cap Change 20-21 Cash Change
ATL +$0.5M +$.2M
BOS +$15.15M +$5.1M
BKN - -
CHA +$2.25M +$0.8M
CHI -$4M +$0.2M
CLE -$2.6M -$.923M
DAL -$1.4M -$.5M
DEN +$1.4M +$0.6M
DET +$3.6M -$1.3M
GSW -$4.5M -$1.5M
HOU -$1.8M -$0.1M
IND - -
LAC -$2.5M -$0.9M
LAL - -
MEM - -
MIA +$8.7M +$0.5M
MIL -$1.3M -$0.5M
MIN - -
NOP +$0.8M +$0.5M
NYK +$1.5M +$0.6M
OKC -$5.9M -$2.4M
ORL -$16.5M -$6M
PHI +$1M +$1.5M
PHX +$1.6M +$0.69M
POR -$0.8M -$0.2M
SAC -$2.1M -$1.4M
SAS +$1.8M +$0.65M
TOR -$2.2M -$0.8M
UTA +$1.5M +$0.54M
WAS -$1.5M -$0.7M

 

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks sent PG Rajon Rondo to the Clippers for SG Lou Williams, two 2nd round picks, & cash considerations. It’s a big win for Rondo, and a small win for the Hawks, who pick up a few extra picks, and free up $7.5M of cap & cash in 2021-22. Williams is an expiring contract. The cash included in this deal likely matches the difference between Rondo & Williams this year ($200k).

IN ($8M cap, $2.8M cash)
Lou Williams (SG, $8M, $2.8M) - expiring

OUT ($7.5M cap, $2.6M cash)
Rajon Rondo (PG, $7.5M, $2.6M) - thru 21-22

 

Boston Celtics

The Celtics use a portion of their Gordon Hayward trade exception to acquire Evan Fournier from Orlando (still have $11M remaining, expiring 11/29/21). This plus a swap of big men with Chicago/Washington brings in over $15M of new cap, $5.5M of new cash to their season.

IN ($21.75M cap, $7.7M cash)
Evan Fournier (SG, $17.4M, $6.2M) - expiring
Mo Wagner (C, $2.1M, $770k) - expiring
Luke Kornet (C, $2.25M, $801k) - expiring

OUT ($6.6M cap, $2.6M cash)
Daniel Theis (C, $5M, $1.7M) - expiring
Jeff Teague (PG, $1.6M, $913k) - expiring

 

Brooklyn Nets

No movement.

 

Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte struck a last minute deal to acquire some point guard insurance with LaMelo Ball now on the shelf. It’s an expiring contract.

IN ($2.25M cap, $801k cash)
Brad Wanamaker (PG, $2.25M, $801k) - expiring

 

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls landed the biggest fish of the deadline in Vucevic, adding just over $4M of cap at the end of the day. Chicago stays basically cash neutral through the remainder of the season, thanks to cash considerations in their 3-team deal with Washington/Boston. The Bulls hold about $23M of practical cap space in the 2021-22 season.

OUT ($40M cap, $14.2M cash)
Otto Porter Jr. (SF, $28.4M, $10.1M) - expiring
Wendell Carter Jr. (SF, $5.4M, $1.9M) - thru 21-22
Chandler Hutchison (SF, $2.4M, $870k) - thru 21-22
Luke Kornet (C, $2.25M, $801k) - expiring Daniel Gafford (PF, $1.5M, $540k) - thru 21-22

IN ($44M cap, $14M cash)
Nikola Vucevic (C, $26M, $9.2M) - thru 22-23
Al-Farouq Aminu (PF, $9.7M, $3.4M) - thru 21-22
Troy Brown Jr. (SF, $3.3M, $1.2M) - thru 21-22
Daniel Theis (C, $5M, $1.7M) - expiring
$1.55M of cash considerations

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Already inline to lose Andre Drummond via buyout, the Cavs let another big man off the hook at the deadline, sending McGee back to Denver for a young center and two 2nd round picks. Cleveland frees up $2.6M of cap space, and almost $1M cash in the deal.

IN ($1.6M cap, $577k cash)
Isaiah Hartenstein (C, $1.6M, $577k) - option thru 21-22

OUT ($4.2M cap, $1.5M cash)
JaVale McGee (C, $4.2M, $1.5M) - expiring

 

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs get active late in the day, bringing in 3PT specialist JJ Redick out of New Orleans for James Johnson and a swap of forwards. The move actually frees up $1.4M of cap, and a half a million cash.

IN ($16.8M cap, $5.9M cash)
J.J. Redick (SG, $13M, $4.6M) - expiring
Nicolo Melli (PF, $3.8M, $1.3M) - expiring RFA

OUT ($18.2M cap, $6.4M cash)
James Johnson (PF, $16M, $5.8M) - expiring
Wesley Iwundu (SF, $1.6M, $597k) - thru 21-22

 

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets made two big additions for their postseason run in adding Gordon from Orlando and McGee from Cleveland. They added about $1.4M of cap & $400,000 of cash allocations in the two moves, while relinquishing a 1st and 2 2nd round picks in the process.

IN ($24.3M cap, $8.6M cash)
Aaron Gordon (PF, $18.1M, $6.45M) - thru 21-22
JaVale McGee (C, $4.2M, $1.5M) - expiring
Gary Clark (PF, $2M, $712k) - thru 21-22

OUT ($22.9M cap, $8.2M cash)
Gary Harris (SG, $19.1M, $6.9M) - thru 21-22
RJ Hampton (PG, $2.2M, $781k) - thru 23-24
Isaiah Hartenstein (C, $1.6M, $577k) - option thru 21-22

 

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons swap PGs with the Kings, landing themselves a player with half the production, and $3.6M in additional cap. Sounds about right.

IN ($12.6M cap, $4.4M cash)
Cory Joseph (PG, $12.6M, $4.4M) - thru 21-22, non-GTD

OUT ($9M cap, $5.7M cash)
Delon Wright (PG, $9M, $5.7M) - thru 21-22

 

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors shed some cap and cash at the deadline, sending an expiring Chriss to San Antonio, and an extra PG to the Hornets who just lost LaMelo Ball. This drops their 2020-21 cash payroll to $169.5M, still tops in the league.

IN (No Impact)
Cady Lalanne (PF)

OUT ($4.5M cap, $1.5M cash)
Brad Wanamaker (PG, $2.25M, $801k) - expiring
Marquese Chriss (SF, $1.8M, $649k) - expiring

 

Houston Rockets

They had us thinking for a moment that he was staying, but Houston does indeed ship out Oladipo to Miami for an expiring big wing & a veteran PG with a team option in 2021-22. When factoring in last weeks deal sending P.J. Tucker to the Bucks, Houston frees up about $2M of cap, while staying basically cash neutral for the rest of the season.

IN ($28.9M cap, $11.2M cash)
Kelly Olynyk (PF, $12.2M, $4.7M) - expiring
D.J. Augustin (PG, $6.6M, $2.7M) - thru 22-23
Avery Bradley (PG, $5.6M, $2M) - option thru 21-22
D.J. Wilson (PF, $4.5M, $1.8M) - expiring RFA

OUT ($30.7M cap, $11.3M cash)
Victor Oladipo (SG, $21M, $7.4M) - expiring
P.J. Tucker (PF, $8M, $3.2M) expiring
Rodions Kurucs (SF, $1.7M, $719k) - option thru 21-22

 

Indiana Pacers

No Movement

 

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers will take a chance on playoff Rondo carrying them through the post season this year, sending a plateauing Lou Williams back home to Atlanta. LA frees up $2.5M of cap, & almost $1M of cash in these deals.

IN ($7.5M cap, $2.6M cash)
Rajon Rondo (PG, $7.5M, $2.6M) - thru 21-22

OUT ($10M cap, $3.5M cash)
Lou Williams (SG, $8M, $2.8M) - expiring
Mfiondu Kabengele (PF, $2M, $782k) - expiring

 

Los Angeles Lakers

No movement

 

Memphis Grizzlies

No movement

 

Miami Heat

While many had them pegged for Kyle Lowry, the Heat end up with Oladipo while keeping all of their talented youngsters (for now). These moves combine for $8.7M of new cap, but only a half a million more cash.

IN ($41M cap, $15.1M cash)
Victor Oladipo (SG, $21M, $7.4M) - expiring
Trevor Ariza (SF, $12.8M, $5.2M) - expiring
Nemanja Bjelica (PF, $7.15M, $2.5M) - expiring

OUT ($32.3M cap, $14.6M cash)
Kelly Olynyk (PF, $12.2M, $4.7M) - expiring
Meyers Leonard (C, $9.4M, $3.8M) - expiring
Avery Bradley (PG, $5.6M, $2M) - option thru 21-22
Maurice Harkless (SF, $3.6M, $1.3M) expiring
Chris Silva (PF, $1.5M, $540k) - option thru 21-22

 

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks did much of their trade work in the offseason, bringing in a little grit at the deadline in Tucker. The move actually clears $1.3M of cap, and a half a million cash

IN ($9.7M cap, $4M cash)
P.J. Tucker (PF, $8M, $3.2M) expiring
Rodions Kurucs (SF, $1.7M, $719k) - option thru 21-22

OUT ($11M cap, $4.5M cash)
D.J. Augustin (PG, $6.6M, $2.7M) - thru 22-23
D.J. Wilson (PF, $4.5M, $1.8M) - expiring RFA

 

Minnesota Timberwolves

No movement

 

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans sends Redick to a potential playoff team, while picking up an extra 2nd rounder in exchange for a $1M more of cap, and half a million more cash this season.

IN ($17.6M cap, $6.4M cash)
James Johnson (PF, $16M, $5.8M) - expiring
Wesley Iwundu (SF, $1.6M, $597k) - thru 21-22

OUT ($16.8M cap, $5.9M cash)
J.J. Redick (SG, $13M, $4.6M) - expiring
Nicolo Melli (PF, $3.8M, $1.3M) - expiring RFA

 

New York Knicks

The Knicks acquire two second round picks in exchange for a few expiring restricted free agents that could have a chance to stick. They added $1.5M of cap, and around $600k of cash in the process.

IN ($6.5M cap, $2.3M cash)
Terrance Ferguson (SF, $3.9M, $1.4M) - expiring RFA
Vincent Poirier (C, $2.6M, $932k) - expiring RFA
Emir Preldzic (SF)

OUT ( $5M cap, $1.7M cash)
Austin Rivers (PG, $3.5M, $1.2M) - non-g’teed the 22-23
Ignas Brazdeikis (SF, $1.5M, $540k) - option thru 22-23

 

Oklahoma City Thunder

What else is new? The Thunder shipped out two vets for expiring contracts, clearing $6M of cap, $2.5M of cash, and picking up 3 more 2nd round draft picks. As the sky is blue…

IN ($16.4M cap, $6.2M cash)
Meyers Leonard (C, $9.4M, $3.8M) - expiring
Austin Rivers (PG, $3.5M, $1.2M) - non-g’teed thru 22-23
Tony Bradley (C, $3.5M, $1.2M) - expiring RFA

OUT ($22.3M cap, $8.6M cash)
Trevor Ariza (SF, $12.8M, $5.2M) - expiring
George Hill (PG, $9.5M, $3.4M) - non-g’teed thru 21-22

 

Orlando Magic

The Magic sent 4/5 of their starting lineup out the door this week, clearing $16.5M of cap space and $6M of cash in the process. In addition to the players below, Orlando picks up a $17.15M trade exception in moving Evan Fournier to the Celtics. They also pick up 3 1st round picks, & 2 2nd rounders per their moves, and now hold $16M of practical cap space in the 2021-22 season.

IN ($56.7M cap, $20M cash)
Otto Porter Jr. (SF, $28.4M, $10.1M) - expiring
Gary Harris (SG, $19.1M, $6.9M) - thru 21-22
Wendell Carter Jr. (SF, $5.4M, $1.9M) - thru 21-22
RJ Hampton (PG, $2.2M, $781k) - thru 23-24
Jeff Teague (PG, $1.6M, $913k) - expiring

OUT ($73.2M cap, $26M cash)
Nikola Vucevic (C, $26M, $9.2M) - thru 22-23
Aaron Gordon (PF, $18.1M, $6.45M) - thru 21-22
Evan Fournier (SG, $17.4M, $6.2M) - expiring
Al-Farouq Aminu (PF, $9.7M, $3.4M) - thru 21-22
Gary Clark (PF, $2M, $712k) - thru 21-22

 

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers added about $1M of cap and cash respectively, and are taking a flyer on the injured George Hill as an experienced backcourt player for their postseason run. Nothing too fancy to see here.

IN ($11M cap, $4M cash)
George Hill (PG, $9.5M, $3.4M) - non-g’teed thru 21-22
Ignas Brazdeikis (SF, $1.5M, $540k) - option thru 22-23

OUT ($10M cap, $3.5M cash)
Terrance Ferguson (SF, $3.9M, $1.4M) - expiring RFA
Tony Bradley (C, $3.5M, $1.2M) - expiring RFA
Vincent Poirier (C, $2.6M, $932k) - expiring RFA

 

Phoenix Suns

The Suns added a depth forward about a week ago and nothing more since. They’re a sleeper for a buyout player or two as they prepare for a postseason run.

IN ($1.6M cap, $690k cash)
Torrey Craig (SF, $1.6M, $689k) - expiring

 

Portland Trailblazers

Portland gets another outstanding backcourt player, shedding $800k of cap and $200k of cash in the process. Things could get really expensive next year if they want to keep Powell though.

IN ($10.8M cap, $3.8M cash)
Norman Powell (SG, $10.8M, $3.8M) - option thru 21-22

OUT ($11.6M cap, $4M cash)
Gary Trent Jr. (SG, $1.6M, $592k) - expiring RFA
Rodney Hood (SF, $10M, $3.5M) - non-g’teed thru 21-22

 

Sacramento Kings

The Kings added 5 players this week, none whom are poised to move the needle too much, but they’re starting to show signs of piecing things together at last. The kicker? They cleared over $2M of cap space in the process.

IN ($17.6M cap, $8.3M cash)
Delon Wright (PG, $9M, $5.7M) - thru 21-22
Maurice Harkless (SF, $3.6M, $1.3M) expiring
Mfiondu Kabengele (PF, $2M, $782k) - expiring
Terence Davis (SG, $1.5M, $540k) - expiring RFA
Chris Silva (PF, $1.5M, $540k) - option thru 21-22

OUT ($19.7M cap, $6.9M cash)
Cory Joseph (PG, $12.6M, $4.4M) - thru 21-22, non-GTD
Nemanja Bjelica (PF, $7.15M, $2.5M) - expiring

 

San Antonio Spurs

The rare Spurs deadline deal didn’t exactly raise eyebrows, but San Antonio gets a young forward to get a look at for a few months at minimum cap and cash increase.

IN ($1.8M cap, $650k cash)
Marquese Chriss (SF, $1.8M, $649k) - expiring

 

Toronto Raptors

So they keep Lowry after all, but still lose a solid piece in Powell, freeing up about $2.2M of cap and $800k of cash in the process.

IN ($11.6M cap, $4M cash)
Gary Trent Jr. (SG, $1.6M, $592k) - expiring RFA
Rodney Hood (SF, $10M, $3.5M) - non-g’teed thru 21-22

OUT ($13.8M cap, $4.8M cash)
Norman Powell (SG, $10.8M, $3.8M) - option thru 21-22
Terence Davis (SG, $1.5M, $540k) - expiring RFA
Matt Thomas (SG, $1.5M, $540k cash)

 

Utah Jazz

The Jazz add a depth backcourt piece, but appear pretty content to make a deep postseason run with the unit they have.

IN ($1.5M cap, $540k cash)
Matt Thomas (SG, $1.5M, $540k cash)

 

Washington Wizards

Washington added a few players with term while freeing up $1.5M of cap space, and $700 in cash. Kind of a win win here for the Wizards.

IN ($3.9M cap, $1.3M cash)
Chandler Hutchison (SF, $2.4M, $870k) - thru 21-22
Daniel Gafford (PF, $1.5M, $540k) - thru 21-22

OUT ($5.4M cap, $2M cash)
Troy Brown Jr. (SF, $3.3M, $1.2M) - thru 21-22
Mo Wagner (C, $2.1M, $770k) - expiring

Michael GinnittiMarch 25, 2021
Michael GinnittiMarch 23, 2021

At $37.2M, Aaron Rodgers currently holds the belt for the highest cap hit in all of football for 2021. With rumors circulating about the Packers and he discussing a revamped contract to remedy this bloated figure, we’ll take a look at a few options.

Current Contract


Rodgers currently holds a 3 year, $73M contact with the Packers, with just the recently (assumedly) paid $6.8M roster bonus considered guaranteed. Setting aside this roster bonus leaves us with $15.2M of 2021 cash to deal with in terms of a restructure (a $14.7M base salary, & a $500,000 workout bonus).


A Potential Restructure

This restructure comes with a caveat: Does Aaron Rodgers want to be here for the foreseeable future, OR do the Packers want Aaron Rodgers around for more than a couple of years. These answers matter for a variety of reasons, but most importantly, what kind of restructure are we looking at: A restructure simply for current year cap purposes, or a restructure that includes new years, and new money to help satisfy the player down the road.

Based on pure speculation, we’re going to use the first answer for this exercise. 

The problem with Green Bay looking to free up 2021 cap space AND make this contract as tradable as possible in 2022 is that cap saved now must become cap gained next year. But with traded dead cap hits of $33.8M, $24.7M, & $19M taken on this year to Wentz, Goff, & Stafford respectively, it appears that the days of too much dead cap in order to gain cash freedom & draft capital are over. In other words, a little more dead cap next year probably doesn’t matter a whole lot to the Packers. 

Here’s the projected restructure:


As you’ll see, we’ve lowered the 2021 cap hit from $37.2M, down to $25M, a savings of $12.15M this year. At $22M, the cash compensation remains the same, though $14.125M of it has now been converted into a signing bonus. The $6.8M roster bonus is immovable because we’re assuming it’s already been paid out. 

Going forward, the 2022 league year now comes with a $2.8M increase in cap hit, but the same $25.5M of cash allocation. We’ve converted the $25M base salary into a league minimum $1.12M salary, with a $23.88M roster bonus, due early next March. This ensures any kind of trade will happen immediately (like the Wentz, Goff, Stafford moves did). 

Post 2022 is where things change a lot. We’ve removed the 2023 league year from this contract (as it was just fluff anyway), and added 3 “void years” to this restructure. This allows that $14.125M signing bonus in 2021 to prorate over the maximum 5 years, but also gives Rodgers more control over his destiny should he decided to stick it out in Green Bay through 2022. If Rodgers plays out 2022 then retires or hits free agency, the Packers will be left with an $11.3M dead cap hit in 2023.

So why not restructure this into a 1 year deal that expires after 2021? The Packers want to keep Rodgers a trade asset after the upcoming season, so it’s important that a real salaried year exists in 2022 to allow this to happen once the league year begins next March.

 

What If He Wants to Stay?

If the answer to the original “what kind of restructure is this?” Is an extension to keep him in Green Bay indefinitely, we’re looking at a much different breakdown here. Here’s a look at what notable QBs of late did at age 37 in respect to new contracts:

  • Ben Roethlisberger, 2 year, $68M new money extension (the final year of which was just restructured with a pay cut).
  • Drew Brees, 1 year $25M extension, including 3 void years. Brees ended up earning $45M over two years on this restructure, before re-upping again at age 39 (2 years, $50M).
  • Tom Brady, 3 years, $27M of which he saw 1 year, $13M. He’s since re-upped at 2 years, $41M, 2 years, $30M, 1 year, $23M, 2 years, $50M, & 1 year, $25M since age 37. Consistently earning between $23-$25M per year, but continuously keeping his cap hit (and availability) fluid.
  • Peyton Manning, 2 years, $34M with Denver at age 38. He saw 1 for $19M before retiring on top.
  • Philip Rivers, 1 year, $25M free agent contract at age 38 with Indy. He earned all $25M, and retired after the season. 

 

Conclusions

In other words, if Rodgers does want to make this restructure both about lowering his 2021 cap hit AND adding cash & years to his contract, the recent precedents are all over the place. Which path does Rodgers go down? His financial resume puts him more inline with Roethlisberger than the others, as Rodgers has been prone to “max out” both his contract length, and his upfront cash. Will that change as he hits the twilight of his career? Probably, but his performance in 2020 says it might not have to.


With that said, everyone associated with the NFL knows that this year is weird, next year will be better, and 2023 could be GLORIOUS - including Aaron Rodgers. Regardless of where his head is with the Green Bay Packers, he and every other player amidst contract negotiations right now should be aligning themselves with a chance to renegotiate in or around the 2023 league year, when cash and cap should strong than its ever been in league history. So a 2 year restructure, taking the 2023 year out of the way would also put Aaron in the drivers seat in this regard as well.

All said, this restructure won’t be just about lowering the Packers cap hit in 2021 - but will also tell a story about where his future may live. 



Michael GinnittiMarch 15, 2021

 

DT Taco Charlton stays in Kansas City on a 1 year contract.

TE Chris Manhertz leaves Carolina to join the Jaguars on a 2 year, $7.25M contract. The deal includes $4.25M guarateed.

CB Chidobe Awuzie signs a 3 year contract with the Bengals

TE Hunter Henry leaves the Chargers on a 3 year, $37.5 million contract with the free-spending Patriots. 

CB Sidney Jones stays Jacksonville, who played on a league minimum salary in 2020.

TE Geoff Swaim returns to Tennessee on a 1 year deal. 

EDGE Von Miller had his $18M option for 2021 exercised by the Broncos. $7M of it is now fully guaranteed. Miller carries a $22M cap hit in the final year of his contract. Full Breakdown

DT Dalvin Tomlinson leaves the Giants on a 2 year, $22M contract with the Vikings. $16M is fully guaranteed. 

WR Chris Moore joins the Texans on a 1 year, $2M contract. 

OLB Kevin Pierre-Louis leaves Washington on a 2 year $8M contract in Houston. 

QB Jameis Winston stays in New Orleans on a 1 year, $5.5 million contract, with $7M of additional incentives. Full Breakdown

DE Carl Lawson joins the Jets pass rush on a 3 year $45M contract, $30M guaranteed, after 4 years with the Bengals.

OT Kendall Lamm signed a 2 year $6.8M contract with Tennessee, leaving Cleveland. The deal includes $3M guaranteed, all in 2021. Full Breakdown

OT Matt Feiler signed a 3 year $21M contract with the Chargers, leaving PIttsburgh

EDGE Bud Dupree signed a 5 year $82.5M contract with Tennessee that includes $35M guaranteed.

TE Cethan Carter joins the Dolphins on a 3 year $7.8 million contract, leaving Cincinnati. The deal includes $2.7M fully guaranteed, all in 2021. Full Breakdown

RB Devontae Booker leaves Las Vegas for the Giants on a 2 year, $6M contract.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick finds his 9th home, joining Washington on a 1 year, $10M contract with incentives to take the deal up to $12M.

DE Henry Anderson finds a new home quickly, joining New England on a 2 year, $7M contract.

WR Corey Davis leaves Tennessee for the Jets, who give out a 3 year, $37.5M contract, $27M fully guaranteed through 2022. Full Breakdown

DT Austin Johnson stays with the Giants on a 1 year fully guaranteed $3M contract. Full Breakdown

DE Denico Autry leaves Indy for Tennessee on a reported 3 year, $21.5M contract that includes $9M guaranteed over the next two seasons. Full Breakdown

TE James Hurst stays in New Orleans on a 3 year $9M contract with $5M fully guaranteed. Full Breakdown

TE Rób Gronkowski returns to Tampa Bay on a 1 year, $8M contract with 4 additional void years for cap purposes. Full Breakdown

RB Carlos Hyde will share snaps with James Robinson in Jacksonville, on a 2 year, $4.5M contract, including $1.4M guaranteed. Full Breakdown

WR Phillip Dorsett makes his latest stop Jacksonville, terms undisclosed.

LS Jake McQuaide leaves the Rams to join Dallas on a 1 year contract

WR Nelson Agholor joins Bourne as another weapon heading to New England, on a reported 2 year, $22M contract.

WR Kendrick Bourne signs a reported 3 year, $22.5M contract to join the Patriots that includes $5.25M fully guaranteed, all in 2021. Full Breakdown

DT Vincent Taylor heads from Cleveland to Houston on a 1 year $2M contract

DT Carl Davis returns to New England on a 1 year contract

CB Ronald Darby leaves Washington for Denver on a 3 year, $30M contract, $19.5M fully guaranteed through 2022. Full Breakdown

ILB Joe Thomas heads across state, leaving the Cowboys to join the Texans on a 1 year $2M contract.

EDGE Leonard Floyd stays in Los Angeles, signing a 4 year $64M contract with the Rams

DE Dawuane Smoot signed a 2 year $14M contract to stay in Jacksonville

EDGE Yannick Ngakoue joins his 4th team, signing with the Las Vegas Raiders on a 2 year, $26M contract, $21M fully guaranteed at signing, including $13M in 2021. Full Breakdown

OT Cam Robinson signed his 1 year $13.754 million franchise tag with the Jaguars. 

OG Justin McCray joins the Texans on a 2 year, $4M contract that includes a $500,000 signing bonus. He spent 2020 with Atlanta. Full Breakdown

S Terrence Brooks leaves the Patriots on a 1 year $2 million contract to Houston, who are active with small, depth signings.

OG Rashod Hill stays in Minnesota on a 1 year $2.3 million contract, fully guaranteed. Full Breakdown

CB Michael Davis remains with the Chargers on a 3 year $25.2 million contract with just $10M fully guaranteed, all in 2021. Full Breakdown

DT Shelby Harris turns his 2020 prove-it deal into a 3 year, $27M contract with the Broncos, with $15M guaranteed. Full Breakdown

CB Cam Sutton stays in Pittsburgh on a 2 year, $9M contract. The Steelers needed value from their departing free agents and appear to have it here. Full Breakdown

DT Maliek Collins signs a 1 year, $5 million contract to join the Houston Texans. The deal includes $2M guaranteed. Full Breakdown

C Corey Linsley follows former Packers O-Lineman Bryan Bulaga to the Chargers on a 5 year, $62.5M contract. He becomes the highest average paid center in NFL history and will get $26M over the next two seasons. Full Breakdown

DE Deatrich Wise remains in New England on a 4 year $22 million contract, $10M fully guaranteed through 2022. Full Breakdown

LB Samson Ebukam joins the Niners on a 2 year $12M contract after four seasons with the Rams. The deal includes $5M guaranteed, all in 2021. Full Breakdown

OG Joe Thuney heads to the Chiefs via New England on a massive 5 year $80M contract with $48M practically guaranteed over the next three seasons. Full Breakdown

S John Johnson leaves the cap-congested Rams to join Cleveland on a 3 year, $33.75M contract that reportedly includes $24M guaranteed through 2022. Full Breakdown

LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin extends another season with the Lions on a 1 year, $2.3M deal, fully guaranteed. Full Breakdown

LB Jarrad Davis leaves Detroit after 4 seasons to join the Jets on a 1 year $5.5M contract, fully guaranteed. Full Breakdown

LS Chris Board continues a stretch of extensions for long snappers, signing a 1 year $2.6M deal to stay in Baltimore.

S Johnathan Ford heads east to Jacksonville after 4 years with Arizona, signing a 2 year $4.2M contract, $600,000 guaranteed. Full Breakdown 

WR Jamal Agnew leaves Detroit for sunny Jacksonville, signing a 3 year $14.25M contract with an out after year 1. Full Breakdown

CB Tremon Smith stays in Houston on a 1 year $1.13M contract, including $280,000 guaranteed. Full Breakdown

S Jalen Mills the Patriots continue to shop big, locking in a 4 year, $24M contract with the former Eagles DB. The deal comes with $9M guaranteed through 2022. Full Breakdown

DT Roy Robertson-Harris leaves Chicago for Jacksonville on a 3 year, $24.4M contract. 

EDGE Matt Judon joins the very active Patriots on a 4 year, $56M contract that includes $32M fully guaranteed.

CB Jason Verrett, remains with the 49ers on a 1 year, $5.5M contract. Full Breakdown

LB Kamu Grugier-Hill stays in Houston on a 1 year $2.5 contract Full Breakdown

WR Andre Roberts leaves Buffalo for Houston a 2 year, $5.5M contract that includes $2.5M fully guaranteed, all in 2021. Full Breakdown

DT Davon Godchaux leaves Miami for colder weather, joining the Patriots on a 2 year, max $16M contract that includes $9M guaranteed.

TE Jonnu Smith joins the Patriots via Tennessee on a 4 year, $50M contract that includes. $31.25M fully guaranteed per his agent. Smith becomes the 3rd highest average paid TE in the game with the deal.

OL Cam Erving leaves Dallas for the Panthers, who are loading up on their O-Line early on. The reported deal comes in at 2 years, $10M with $8M guaranteed. Full Breakdown

OL Pat Elflein joins the Panthers on a 3 year, $13.5M deal including $6M guaranteed. The former Jet becomes the first of what could be a busy offseason of moves for the Panthers.

OLB Markus Golden remains in Arizona, locking in a 2 year, $9M extension.

EDGE Shaq Barrett returns to the Buccaneers, agreeing to a 4 year $68M extension just before the negotiation period opens, including $36M fully guaranteed. The deal includes an $18M signing bonus, and a 2021 cap hit around $6M. Barrett can add another $1M per year with 15 sacks and a playoff berth. Barrett carried an almost $20M valuation, so a base $17M per year is a nice deal for Tampa. More details as they come in…

EDGE Romero Okwara returns to the Lions on a 3 year, $39M contract, who held a valuation just north of $10M in our system. It’s an exceptional raise for a player who peaked in his contract season in Detroit. 

OG Kevin Zeitler joins the Ravens on a 3 year, $22.5M contract, including $16M fully guaranteed through 2022. He was released by the Giants just 5 days prior. Full Breakdown

DE Mario Edwards stays in Chicago on a 3 year, $11.66M extension that includes $4.5M in 2021. Edwards had his best season to date in a platoon role for the Bears, & could see himself with more snaps from here out. Full Breakdown

OG Jon Feliciano becomes the latest Bills player to stick around, locking in a 3 year, max $17M contract. Additional details still pending…

RB Aaron Jones wasn’t franchise tagged, but he agrees to a 4 year, max $48M extension to stay in Green Bay nonetheless. The deal includes a reported $13M signing bonus in 2021.

FB Kyle Juszczyk extends his stay in San Francisco with a 5 year, $27M contract that includes $9.6M fully guaranteed at signing. The deal carries $5.4M cash in 2021 & a friendly $2.275M cap hit. Full Breakdown

K Dustin Hopkins stays in Washington on a 1 year, $2.4M extension that includes $1.8M fully guaranteed. Full Breakdown

TE Josh Hill quickly finds a new home after being ousted from New Orleans, signed a 1 year contract with Detroit. 

CB Emmanuel Moseley stays with the Niners, locking in a 2 year, $9.384 million extension. Full Breakdown

C B.J. Finney finds his way back to Pittsburgh after being released from the Bengals. It’s a 1-year deal.

QB Tom Brady signed a 1 year, $25M extension with the Buccaneers that guarantees him through age 45, while lowering his 2021 cap hit by $19M. Full Breakdown

CB Vernon Hargreaves returns to Houston on a 1 year contract. Terms have not been disclosed.

QB Cam Newton heads back to New England on a 1 year, $5.1M contract with $3.5M fully guaranteed, and plenty of ways to earn more. Full Breakdown

LB Christian Kirksey was released out Green Bay, but quickly finds work in Houston on a 1 year, $4.5M contract. Full terms not yet released.

CB Robert Alford stays in Arizona on a 1 year contract. Full terms not yet released.

LB Pernell McPhee signs a 1 year extension to remain in Baltimore.

C Tyler Shatley signs a 1 year extension to remain in Jacksonville

P Michael Palardy joins Miami on a 1 year deal after being released from the Panthers.

OT Daryl Williams stays in Buffalo on a 3 year, $24M contract that includes $9.4M fully guaranteed at sign. He’ll make almost $17M over the next two seasons. Full Breakdown

K Younghoe Koo becomes the first Falcons signing of the offseason, extending a 1 year contract in Atlanta.

K Cairo Santos signs a 3 year, $9M extension in Chicago that includes $3.5M this year before options. Full Breakdown

LB Matt Milano takes a hometown discount to remain in Buffalo, signing a 4 year $41.5M extension with the Bills that includes $20M fully guaranteed at signing. Milano will see $21.5M over the next two seasons. Full Breakdown

LB Tanner Vallejo stays in Arizona on a 2 year, $4.1M contract. 

RB Mark Ingram joins the Texans on a 1 year $2.5M contract including just $500,000 guaranteed. The Ravens released him mid-January. Full Breakdown

OG Brandon Scherff signed his 1 year $18 million franchise tag with Washington.

QB Brandon Allen signed a 1 year extension with Cincinnati

LS J.J. Jansen extends a 1 year contract with Carolina.

LB Lavonte David stays in Tampa Bay on a 2 year, $25 million extension that includes $17.5M guaranteed at signing, & a $7.7M cap hit in 2021. Full Breakdown

OT Taylor Moton signed his 1 year $13.754M franchise tag, making it fully guaranteed with the Panthers. The two sides have until July 15th to hammer out a multi-year extension.

QB Dak Prescott signed a 4 year, $160M extension to remain in Dallas, including $95M fully guaranteed at signing and $126M through 2023. Full Breakdown

LB Andre Smith signed a 2 year $2.4M extension to stay in Buffalo, including $300,000 fully guaranteed. Full Breakdown

RB Ty Montgomery stays in New Orleans on a 1 year, $1.1M contract. 

S Micah Hyde signed a 2 year, $19.25M extension with the Bills that includes $9.6M fully guaranteed at signing. Full Breakdown

DT Justin Ellis, extends 1 year with the Ravens. Terms undisclosed.

TE Ross Dwelley signed a 1 year $1.6M extension to remain with the 49ers, including $480,000 guaranteed. Full Breakdown

C Justin Britt signed a 1 year $3.2M contract to join the Texans after his release out of Seattle. The deal includes $500,000 guaranteed. Full Breakdown

DE Stephen Weatherly signed a 1 year, $2.5M contract to stay in Minnesota, including $500,000 guaranteed. Full Breakdown

SS J.T. Gray stays in New Orleans on a 2 year, $4M contract extension that includes $2M guaranteed. Full Breakdown

LS Trent Sieg signed a 3 year, $3M extension with the Raiders that includes a first year guarantee. Full Breakdown

WR Tyrell Williams finds a new home in Detroit after being ousted in Las Vegas on a 1 year heavily incentivized $4M contract. Full Breakdown

LS Clark Harris stays in Cincinnati on a 1 year, $1.2M contract with a $137k signing bonus. Full Breakdown

DE J.J. Watt bucks a lot of rumors signing a 2 year $31M contract with the Arizona Cardinals. The deal includes $20M fully guaranteed at signing. Full Breakdown

Michael GinnittiMarch 15, 2021
Michael GinnittiMarch 14, 2021

Right of First Refusal: $2,133,000
Current team has the ability to match an offer sheet, but won't gain compensation if they fail to do so

Original Round Tender: $2,183,000
If an offer sheet is not matched, the losing team will gain a draft pick equal to where the player as originally selected

Second Round Tender: $3,384,000
If an offer sheet is not matched, the losing team will gain a second round pick from the acquiring team

First Round Tender: $4,766,000
If an offer sheet is not matched, the losing team will gain a first round pick from the acquiring team

Michael GinnittiMarch 10, 2021

With the 2021 league salary cap now set at $182.5M, these are the confirmed franchise & transition tag values per the NFL (a day late and a dollar short). Check out a complete historical look at franchise tags here

Confirmed Franchise Tags Offered in 2021

QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $37,690,800 (2nd tag, placeholder)
DE Leonard Williams, NYG, $19,351,200 (2nd tag)
OL Brandon Scherff, WAS, $18,036,000 (2nd tag)
WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $17,880,000 (120% of 2020 salary)
WR Chris Godwin, TB, $15,983,000
OL Cam Robinson, JAC, $13,754,000
OL Taylor Moton, CAR, $13,754,000
S Justin Simmons, DEN, $13,729,200 (2nd tag)
S Marcus Williams, NO, $10,612,000
S Marcus Maye, NYJ, $10,612,000

 

Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag Values

Position Value
Quarterback $25,104,000
Running Back $8,655,000
Wide Receiver $15,983,000
Tight End $9,601,000
Offensive Lineman $13,754,000
Defensive Tackle $13,888,000
Defensive End $16,069,000
Linebacker $14,791,000
Cornerback $15,060,000
Safety $10,612,000
Kicker/Punter $4,482,000

 

Transition Tag Values

Position Value
Quarterback $23,016,000
Running Back $7,217,000
Wide Receiver $14,340,000
Tight End $8,182,000
Offensive Lineman $12,657,000
Defensive Tackle $11,752,000
Defensive End $13,926,000
Linebacker $12,716,000
Cornerback $13,294,000
Safety $9,052,000
Kicker/Punter $4,068,000

 

 

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