The first official trade of the 2024-25 NBA trade season wasn’t a big one, but it was a rare December 15th deal. The Indiana Pacers filled a need in their frontcourt, while the Miami Heat created a little more flexibility around the second apron.

Here are the particulars:

Indiana Pacers acquire: Thomas Bryant

Miami Heat acquire: Right to swap 2031 second-round picks with Indiana

Let’s dive in!

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

• Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: None

Indiana looked like they had really good depth behind Myles Turner to open the season. Isaiah Jackson has proven to be a solid backup, while James Wiseman was signed as a flyer for additional depth. Unfortunately, within about a week of each other, both Jackson and Wiseman suffered torn Achilles’ tendons. That has both backup centers sidelined for the season.

Now, the Pacers are turning to veteran Thomas Bryant to fill some backup minutes. It’s a homecoming for Bryant, who played his college ball at Indiana University.

Bryant hasn’t played much over the last two seasons, with 48 total appearances for the Miami Heat. In previous stops with the Los Angeles Lakers (twice), the Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets, Bryant has proven to be a valuable offensive big. The 6-foot-10 center can step out and shoot it some, while being a solid finisher inside. Bryant has also been a dependable rebounder throughout his career.

One quirk of this deal: Because Bryant was traded while on a one-year deal, he’ll lose his Early Bird rights in this trade. When a player is traded while on a one-year deal, they lose their Bird or Early Bird rights. This is why those players can qualify for an implied no-trade clause, so that they don’t unilaterally lose those free agent rights if they’re traded. In Bryant’s case, he waived his right to block a trade. And, given he’s veteran minimum player, this wasn’t all that likely to matter anyway.

As far as the pick goes, it’s an extremely minor cost for the Pacers to get a little bit of frontcourt depth. If Bryant can help Indiana stabilize things behind Turner, a second-round swap will be well worth it.

Miami Heat

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

• Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Bryant wasn’t in the Heat rotation. Even when Miami was down bodies in their frontcourt behind Bam Adebayo, Erik Spoelstra wasn’t going to Bryant. That made him a very tradable player.

For the Heat, this trade was all about creating a more flexibility under the second apron. Miami isn’t hard-capped at the second apron, but they were closer to that marker than they really wanted to be. Before this trade, the Heat had about $1.6 million in space under the second apron. Now, the Heat have more than $3.7 million in wiggle room under the second apron.

Given Miami has been involved in trade rumors involving Jimmy Butler, who carries a $48.8 million salary, the Heat would likely be taking back quite of bit of salary in a trade. Now, it’s fair to note that Miami may not make a trade involving Butler at all. But if they do, they’ll bring back a good amount of salary in return.

The important thing: In a Butler trade or another deal, the Heat now have more clearance under the apron than they had before getting off Bryant’s salary.

One last note: the Heat are now down to 13 players signed to standard contracts. Miami will have 14 days to get back into roster compliance by signing a 14th player to a standard deal. The Heat can also go up to 28 total days with less than 14 players on standard deals. So, they can game the system a bit by signing and waiving a player, until they max out their 28 total days.

The Golden State Warriors and the Brooklyn Nets got the 2024-25 trade season off to a running start with a rare December 15th deal. Both sides accomplished goals in the first major deal of the season.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: Dennis Schroder, 2025 Heat second-round pick (if 38-59)

Brooklyn Nets acquire: De’Anthony Melton, Reece Beekman, 2026 Hawks second-round pick, 2028 Hawks second-round pick, 2029 Warriors second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

The Warriors needed more on-ball creation ability. When Stephen Curry sits, everything falls to Draymond Green or inexperienced playmakers to make things happen for the Golden State offense. Adding Schroder should fix that.

Reports are that the Warriors are considering starting Schroder alongside Curry in the backcourt. That’s fine, but the real value of adding Schroder will come in the non-Curry minutes. Now, Steve Kerr can confidently put the ball in a playmaker’s hands for all 48 minutes. That’s should be huge for helping to open up the game for other players. That includes Brandin Podziemski, who has really struggled when tasked with running the offense in his second season.

Salary-wise, this doesn’t change much for Golden State. They went from just over $530,000 from their first-apron hard cap to about $330,000 away from that marker. Both Schroder and Melton are on expiring deals, so there’s no long-term change either. One nice benefit with acquiring Schroder: He has Early Bird rights after this season. That could give the Warriors a decent leg up on re-signing him.

Golden State also gave up Reece Beekman in his deal. Beekman became part of the exclusive club of two-way players to get traded. The Warriors being so tight to the first-apron hard cap means they still can’t fill their 15th standard roster spot, but that has no bearing on filling their open two-way spot. Expect Golden State to sign a replacement for Beekman shortly.

The Warriors are a bit light on second-round picks after this deal. That made it important to get the protected Heat second-rounder in the trade. That’s at least something Golden State can offer up in a future deal.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

This trade was about two things for the Nets. First, they went plus-two in second-round picks. The two Hawks picks (2026 and 2028) and the Warriors pick (2029) are all far enough out that it’s impossible to know where they’ll land. If nothing else, Sean Marks has added to what is becoming a pretty impressive stash of future draft capital.

But mostly, this trade was about moving toward development, or pivoting toward ping pong balls, or straight-up tanking, if you will. The Nets didn’t get better in this trade. Dennis Schroder was arguably the Nets best player this season, especially when you factor in availability. De’Anthony Melton is out for the season. So, not only did Brooklyn not get better, they instead got significantly worse.

And that was the whole idea.

Entering play on December 15, the Nets had the ninth-worst record in the NBA. For a team that reacquired their own 2025 first-round pick ahead of the season, that’s not really where Brooklyn wants to be.

Here’s the good news: Brooklyn is only four losses behind the Jazz and Raptors to fall (jump?) into a top-three pick. Why is that the target range? The top three picks have the flattened odds in the draft lottery. In a loaded draft, the Nets want to have as high of a pick as possible. Getting up to the top-three group would give them the best chance at that.

By moving Schroder now, Marks may not have gotten the absolute most value for the veteran point guard as he may have down the line. It’s possible that by waiting, the Nets could have driven a bidding war for Schroder, especially if teams became desperate for backcourt help.

However, Marks made the right call to make a deal now, even if he might have gotten something a little better down the line. The Nets need to start losing, and start losing at a pretty good clip, right now if they’re going to maximize their lottery odds. By trading Schroder, Brooklyn becomes a worse team, which will increase the chances that they lose more games. Waiting nearly two months to make a deal might have come after a handful more victories than makes sense for the Nets.

On the court, Brooklyn is really light on ballhandling and playmaking. Ben Simmons will likely see increased on-ball reps. That could have a side effect of improving Simmons’ play and his confidence. Beyond Simmons, Shake Milton and Keon Johnson are the only healthy playmakers on the roster right now. Cam Thomas can do some ballhandling, but he’s a score-first guy and he’s working his way back from a hamstring injury.

The above is why the Nets acquired Reece Beekman in the deal. It’s rare for a two-way player to be traded, and even more rare for one to be traded to fill a need, but here we are. Beekman faced an uphill battled to find NBA minutes on a deep Warriors squad. With the Nets thin backcourt, Beekman could be a rotation player right away.

In nine G League games, Beekman has looked pretty solid. The 6-foot-3 point guard has averaged 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 2.8 steals per game. Beekman has also shot 51.5% from the field and 34.5% from behind the arc. As a four-year college starter, Beekman also comes in with more experience than your average rookie guard. Expect to see him getting some rotation minutes as the Nets sort out their backcourt mix.

Salary-wise, there’s no change for Brooklyn beyond this season. Schroder was on an expiring contract, as is Melton. Something to keep an eye on: The Nets can flip Melton in another trade, and by virtue of acquiring him prior to December 16, they can also aggregate Melton’s $12.8 million salary in a subsequent deal.

Sean Marks is just getting started. He’s got several other veteran players who could (and should!) be on the move before the trade deadline. That’ll mean some really ugly basketball in Brooklyn to close this season, but if the Nets land a top-five draft pick, it’ll all have been worth it.

While reports, and denials of some of those reports, are flying all over the place, one thing is clear: Jimmy Butler is no longer a lock to stay with the Miami Heat. After being seen as a perfect match of player and team for several years, it now looks like a Butler-Heat divorce is inevitable.

How did we get here?

It’s been bubbling for a bit now. Butler has been somewhat injury-prone during his run with the Heat. But he was always there when Miami needed him most, leading the team to NBA Finals runs in 2020 and 2023. That was true until Butler missed last season’s playoffs and the Heat were bounced in five mostly non-competitive games against the Boston Celtics.

Following that series loss, Butler said the Celtics would have been “at home” if he had played. Butler also said that if he was on the Philadelphia 76ers, they would have beaten the New York Knicks. Heat president Pat Riley didn’t want to hear it from his star player.

“For him to say that, I thought ‘Is that Jimmy trolling or is that Jimmy serious?’” Riley said in a postseason press conference. “If you're not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut and your criticism of those teams.”

Riley then challenged Butler to figure out what he wants to be for the Heat moving forward, including stating that his star player has to play more. But despite all of that, when pressed if he’d consider trading Butler, Riley kept it simple by saying, “No.”

Flashing forward a bit, Butler has wanted an extension from Miami. He’s recently said that money isn’t the most important thing, but Butler also isn’t likely to take any kind of massive team-friendly discount either. That leaves some room between Butler’s $52.4 million player option for 2025-26 and whatever his starting point would be in an extension.

However, the Heat haven’t been willing to budge much in extension talks. It doesn’t seem to be a case where Miami is lowballing Butler, as much as it seems like there just isn’t anything happen at all.

And that’s landed us here.

Earlier this week, reports broke that Butler would prefer to land with a contender if he’s traded. Two teams on his list, the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, play in Butler’s native Texas. A third team is the Golden State Warriors, who are committed to making the most of whatever Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have left in them over the next few years.

On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the Phoenix Suns are another team that Butler would like to be traded too. That report was denied by Butler’s agent Bernie Lee in a series of social media posts, but that hasn’t kept speculation from running rampant over the day or so.

You have the history. Now, let’s dive into how a Butler trade could come together for each of his reportedly preferred destinations. This is the important part, because putting together a Butler trade isn’t an easy matter.

Let’s first understand Jimmy Butler’s contract. Here’s what it looks like:

• 2024-25: $48,798,677
• 2025-26: $52,413,394 (player option)
• Total: two years, $101,212,071

Next, let’s look at where the Miami Heat sit with the luxury tax and the first and second aprons:

• $13.9 million over the luxury tax
• $9.2 million over the first apron
• $1.6 million under the second apron

It’s also important to note that the Heat are not hard-capped at either the first or second apron. That means Miami can aggregate players in trades, provided the end result sees them staying under the second apron. However, because the Heat are well over the first apron, they can’t take back more salary in a deal than they send out, because that would trigger a first-apron hard cap. These factors are going to be crucial to remember as we piece together possible options.

Got all that? Good! Let’s dive in!

(Note: We’re presenting these mostly as straight-up two-team trades. There are scenarios where involving a third team can make a deal work, but we’re using a standard two-team framework to demonstrate the complexity in a Butler trade. Also: We’re only demonstrating the challenges of matching salary in a Butler deal. We’re not getting into player and draft picks values here.)

Phoenix Suns

We’re starting with the Phoenix Suns idea, because it’s the freshest rumor and simultaneously the most complex and the most simple one to tackle. Phoenix trading for Jimmy Butler is tricky because the Suns are so far over the second apron that they can’t even see it anymore ($31.5 million over). That means, Phoenix can’t take back more salary than they send out (kind of…we’ll get there momentarily!) and Phoenix also can’t aggregate salaries in a trade either.

That means any trade that sends Butler to the Suns has to send Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Kevin Durant back to Miami. There’s simply no other way to make a deal work.

The Suns can’t aggregate salaries in trades, so they have to send one of Beal, Booker or Durant to the Heat. However, each player in that trio makes more money than Butler does. Because the Heat are already over the first apron, they can’t take back even one dollar more than what Butler makes in a straight-up deal. The Suns also can’t take back more salary than they send out, so taking back even a minimum-salary player makes this difficult to work.

So, we’re dead in the water, right? Not so fast, my friend!

In NBA trades, each side is allowed to structure a deal in the way that is most beneficial for them. This can be to create a trade exception, or sometimes simply to make a deal legal. It’s that last part where the Suns and Heat could push a trade through. 

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Bradley Beal
• Phoenix Suns acquire Jimmy Butler, Josh Richardson

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• Butler and Richardson combined make less than Beal, so Miami is clear there.
• Miami would trigger a second-apron hard cap, because they have aggregated players in this deal. The Heat would be roughly $3.3 million under the second apron following the trade. Thankfully, that’s more than enough room to fill out their roster to the required 14 players on standard contracts.
• Phoenix isn’t aggregating in this deal, so there are no concerns there.
• The Suns get around the restriction of taking back more salary than they sent out by breaking this up into two trades on their side.
  • Butler is acquired for Beal. Butler makes less than Beal, so no issue there.
  • Richardson is acquired via the Minimum Exception (which allows for any player signed via the Minimum Exception to be acquired in a trade).

(Note: This trade also works with Alec Burks or Thomas Bryant in place of Richardson, but that leaves the Heat with less space under the second apron to fill out their roster post-trade.)

Now, it’s important to note that Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause. Yes, he was reportedly interested in playing in Miami in the past, but that was with Jimmy Butler, not in replace of him. Maybe Beal would be fine with heading back east, but his no-trade clause complicates things quite a bit. He can scuttle any deal if it doesn’t work for him. Basically: Beal has control here, not the teams.

And, yes, this trade would work if you substituted Kevin Durant or Devin Booker for Beal, but it’s unlikely that the Suns would go in that direction.

One last thing: The Suns (or any team acquiring Butler) could extend Butler after this deal. He’d have to decline his player option for next season, and he’d be limited in years and dollars. Neither of those seem like major stumbling blocks, as longer deals would see Butler bumping up against the Over-38 rule and he’s already on a near-max salary as it is.

Houston Rockets

We’re going to cover the Houston Rockets next, because the path to a Butler trade isn’t that complicated for them mechanics-wise. Houston faces no meaningful apron-related restrictions and can aggregate salaries together. The Rockets have more than enough clearance under the luxury tax and the aprons to take back more salary than they send out without any worries.

Houston is sitting on nearly $41 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (team options and non-guarantees) that they could put into a trade. The Rockets also have a bunch of interesting young players and they have draft assets to put into trade offers too.

Rockets GM Rafael Stone recently reiterated once again that he’s not looking to make a major deal this season. He wants to see what Houston does with this core before committing to adding veterans. We’ll take him at his word…for now. If the cost for Butler comes down enough, or a more appealing veteran star becomes available in the next couple of months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stone change his tune a bit.

And that’s fine! Stone doesn’t need to play his hand yet. He’s got a good thing going and he’s got no reason to mess around today. He’s got roughly two more months of evaluation before the deadline to figure out if the Rockets need to do anything or not.

We’re not going to present a proposed trade here, because the options are so plentiful. Play with Rockets-Heat ideas using our NBA Trade Machine until your heart’s content!

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas faces some issues in a potential Jimmy Butler trade. The Mavericks are hard-capped at the first apron (by virtue of the Klay Thompson sign-and-trade acquisition). In addition, the Mavs are only $386,752 under the first apron. That’s a pretty tight margin to work with.

On the plus side, Dallas doesn’t have any aggregation restrictions. That’s good, because the only way they can make a deal is by stacking together a whole bunch of contracts. We’re assuming Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are off-limits here, because why would you add Butler while moving one of your current stars?

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington
• Dallas Mavericks acquire Jimmy Butler

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Dallas side works, despite the Mavericks taking on more salary than they are sending out by about $600,000. Because P.J. Washington has $500,000 in incentives in his deal, those currently count towards the first apron for the Mavericks. When you send Washington out, those incentives go with him. That creates enough space under the first-apron hard cap to push the trade through.
• However…Dallas would be only $228,917 under the first apron post-trade. And, as you can see, Dallas would have fill three roster spots. That’s not enough space to get back into the roster requirement of having 14 players on standard contracts.

And that’s where we’ll basically cut it off for Dallas. Yes, there are other ways to make a legal trade that also lets the Mavericks fill out their roster, but they all get unlikely, unwieldy or both.

We’ll also add that there’s been some very credible reporting out of Dallas that the Mavericks aren’t ready to take on another near-max veteran with new contracts upcoming for both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the near future. Let’s just move along.

Golden State Warriors

We saved the most likely team for last, because they are easily the most complicated situation to figure out.

What makes the Warriors the most likely team to trade for Jimmy Butler? They reportedly want another on-ball creator to ease the burden on Stephen Curry and Draymond Green to key everything for their offense. Golden State is also reportedly ok with adding veterans to match Curry’s and Green’s timeline to make the most of whatever the two veteran stars have left.

What makes this the most complicated situation? Once again, it’s those pesky aprons and hard caps!

The Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron. And they have only $533,659 in wiggle room under that marker. Here’s how tight things are for the Dubs: They can’t even fill their 15th roster spot right now, because they don’t have enough space for even a prorated minimum signing under the first-apron hard cap.

On the Heat side, they aren’t hard-capped, but they are only $1,638,713 under the second apron.

Both sides can aggregate salaries, but these margins are really tight. Like pants the day after Thanksgiving tight.

You put in an extra player on the Miami side, and the deal isn’t legal on the Golden State side. You switch out one player for another on the Warriors side and it isn’t legal on the Heat side.

Because of that, we’re going to add in the Detroit Pistons as a facilitator.

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Andrew Wiggins from Golden State, top-55 protected second-round pick from Detroit
• Golden State Warriors acquire Jimmy Butler
• Detroit Pistons acquire Gary Payton II

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Heat are taking back approximately $2 million less than they are sending out. That gives them the clearance to push the trade through while not tripping over a first-apron hard cap.
• Golden State clears about $7 million in this deal. Given the Warriors need to sign at least three players to get back into roster compliance with 14 players on standard contracts, that’s enough space to make that happen.
• Detroit still has $10 million in cap space. They can easily absorb Gary Payton II’s deal.
• The Pistons also have an open roster spot, which makes taking in Payton no issue.
• Miami would have to waive a player, or they could route one of their other players somewhere else in a deal, before completing this trade.
• Because Miami and Detroit have to connect to satisfy the “touch rules” in a multi-team trade, we have the Pistons sending the Heat a top-55 protected second-round pick to meet that requirement.

Now, we can, and should, argue about the values here. That’s not really what the exercise was about. Yes, maybe the Heat wouldn’t want Andrew Wiggins contract, but there’s no reasonable way to make this trade happen without Wiggins in the deal.

Summary

If Jimmy Butler wants to get to a contender, especially one with hard cap and apron issues, it’s not going to be easy. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they have one of the NBA’s preeminent CBA/salary cap maestros in Andy Elisburg in their front office. If it can be done, Elisburg will find a way to make it happen.

The main point of this exercise was to show that trading Butler to the Suns, Warriors, Mavericks or Rockets (the last one is super simple) isn’t impossible. Unlikely? Maybe. Needs to involve a third team? Possibly. Tricky to make work given trade rules and satisfying value requirements on all side? Absolutely.

But it’s not impossible for Jimmy Butler to get where he wants to go. And NBA history tells us that when a star wants to be somewhere, he more often than not gets to that destination.

RELATED:

NBA Trade Machine

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last six seasons, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

• January 14, 2024: Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala traded from Washington Wizards to the Detroit Pistons for Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
• December 30, 2023: RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley traded from the New York Knicks to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
• January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
• January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
• January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
• December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
• December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the result of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

One potential reason, beyond history, to watch for an early trade is the benefit of being an early mover. The new CBA has made it harder to make deals with hard-caps and more ways than ever to trigger them. Waiting until trade deadline week (or even deadline day) to make a major move might be hard to make happen.

Because of that, you might see sellers looking to make moves before the buyer market dries up as a result of various restrictions and tight margins around the tax and the aprons. You could also see buyers make a move early to remove the chance that things get too complicated to pull off a move closer to the February 6th deadline. In addition, the 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded and teams are going to want to put themselves in position to land as high of a pick as possible.

This year, we’ve going to present the list in terms of teams to watch as early movers: either as buyers or sellers. There’s clearly some benefit to getting things done early. We’ll break down why we are focused on these teams as the ones to make an early trade.

Sellers

Brooklyn Nets

Players to watch: The entire roster

No snark intended here. The entire Brooklyn Nets roster is available in trade talks. The Nets don’t have a franchise player Thus, they haven’t made anyone untouchable. That’s the smart approach for Brooklyn.

Why might the Nets move early? They’ve already won at a better clip than ever expected. They didn’t trade to get their draft pick back to finish in the middle of the lottery. (Yes, we know ownership and Sean Marks have both said differently, but we aren’t buying it.) Expect them to pivot towards ping pong balls sooner rather than later.

In any trades they make, the Nets will be looking for a combination of young players, draft picks and salary relief. The Nets currently project to have over $40 million in cap space this summer, but that figure could easily grow to well over $60 million if Marks gets off some future salary.

One counterproposal: This doesn’t look like a quick turnaround for Brooklyn. If they can increase their return in trades by taking on some bad long-term salary, that’s worth considering. There aren’t any splashy, quick-fix free agents that will take the team from rebuilding to contender in the span of one offseason. Eating a little money to improve the young players or draft picks they get for their veterans isn’t a bad idea.

Chicago Bulls

Players to watch: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic

In reality, no one should be off limits for the Chicago Bulls. However, outside of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, there are reasons others won’t be very involved in trade talks. Some are young and part of what Chicago is building (Matas Buzelis, Coby White, Patrick Williams), while others are coming off injuries or are veterans that won’t bring much in return (Lonzo Ball, Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig).

And let’s not pretend trading LaVine or Vucevic is a simple thing either. LaVine is coming off an injury while carrying a huge contract. Vucevic is an aging big man who doesn’t offer much defensively. But both have been outstanding offensively this year and that’s rebuilt their trade value.

LaVine looks healthy again. He’s been quick and explosive. The veteran guard is turning in one of his best all-around offensive seasons. Yes, his contract is large ($138 million through 2026-27), but LaVine is proving to be worth it. It’s unlikely that a better offensive player will be available at this deadline.

As for Vucevic, he’s having a career-year on offense. The veteran center is shooting 58.7% from the field. That would shatter his career-best mark by over six percentage points. In addition, Vucevic is hitting 47.4% of his three-pointers. Again, easily a career-best mark.

Sure, there’s going to be some drop-off coming. Vucevic is unlikely to maintain such a torrid pace. But there’s not going to be a better offensive center (and he still rebounds at a pretty good clip too) available this trade season than Vucevic.

Despite history to the contrary, the Bulls could be an early mover to accelerate moving towards a better draft pick. Chicago owes a top-10 protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs. They don’t want to be anywhere near that cutoff line come lottery time.

New Orleans Pelicans

Players to watch: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson

To be fair, Brandon Ingram has been on trade watch since last summer. We’re still here. The difference now is that Ingram recently changed agents and that’s usually done to spark movement on an extension or a trade.

Here’s the challenge: Ingram just suffered a pretty severe ankle injury. He’s expected to miss multiple weeks. That could slow things down as far as his trade market goes.

To continue to be fair, it’s probably not really likely that C.J. McCollum gets traded, and even less likely Zion Williamson does. But talks now could set the stage for a summer move. If New Orleans resets around a core of Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones and draft picks, they could move the others to hasten that reset, including whoever they get with a likely high draft pick.

It’s that likelihood of a top pick that means the Pelicans could be an early mover. They’re going to want to stay inside the top few picks in the lottery, both to help their odds and to guard against slipping down if others jump up.

New Orleans has said they want to get a look at the roster when healthy, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen this season. Because of that, look here for a big move or two before the deadline.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players to watch: Jerami Grant, Duop Reath, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III

The Portland Trail Blazers are probably closer to the Brooklyn Nets in terms of no one being off limits than they’d like to admit. Sure, it’d cost a decent amount to get Shaedon Sharpe or Donovan Clingan (and less to get Scoot Henderson), but neither of those guys screams untouchable franchise guy.

That being said, Portland isn’t going to trade the kids they’ve drafted in the last few years. The vets? Keep a moving company on retainer for the next couple of months.

The Trail Blazers don’t want to miss out on adding a top tier player in the 2025 NBA Draft. So, they need to get to losing. Right now, Portland is seventh in the lottery. That’s not nearly bad enough to guarantee one of the best five or six players in this draft class.

How do you move down? By trading away the vets that are keeping you competitive. Jerami Grant has the long contract, but the size of any single season isn’t overly daunting anymore, not with the cap growth that is projected. Anfernee Simons has a very tradable deal and teams are always looking for backcourt scoring and shooting. Robert Williams III has a great contract, if a team can convince themselves he’ll stay healthy.

Deandre Ayton could be movable, as he’s only got a year left. If there’s a team that is just missing a center from making a playoff run, they could convince themselves to go for Ayton for a two-year look. Matisse Thybulle is kind of in the Williams camp. He’s a great defender and an improved shooter, but he’s battling an injury.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Jonas Valanciunas

Basically, if you weren’t selected in the last two drafts, the Wizards will probably trade you. And that’s fine. This team is just starting the full rebuild process, even openly saying they are still in teardown mode.

Washington is already bad. Like, worst in the NBA by a wide margin bad. Why would they be an early mover? Simply to not miss out on the market. If buyers make moves early, options for Washington to trade their vets could dry up. That would be a major missed opportunity.

Expect lots of interest to come in Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas. All three vets fill holes teams are always looking to plug at the trade deadline. And all three have reasonable, tradable contracts.

Jordan Poole is more of a wild-card. His contract doesn’t look as onerous anymore, because Poole has played quite well this season. This one might be more of an offseason move, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if a team felt like Poole could help them and made a move for him now.

Buyers

Denver Nuggets

Needs: Shooting, bench depth

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a ton to work with trade-wise. They’re over the first apron, so taking back more money than they send out isn’t possible. They do have enough wiggle room under the second apron that they can combine some salary. That’s good news, as Denver can get to about $14.7 million without touching any core rotation players.

That should be enough to get Denver in the mix for some decent upgrades for their bench. This team desperately needs more shooting. They could also simply use more depth across the board. The Nuggets might also move early just so they don’t miss out. Their apron window is tight enough that they need to strike when they can.

Golden State Warriors

Needs: Star power, playmaking

Steve Kerr leaned on his depth early on to propel the Golden State Warriors to a terrific start. Now, that’s started to flip a bit. The Warriors don’t have much star power behind Stephen Curry and they severely lack in on-ball playmaker. In addition, there’s started to be some grumbling about the expanded rotation and inconsistent roles.

The Warriors scream consolidation trade. The margins are extremely tight for Mike Dunleavy Jr. to work around though. Golden State is hard-capped at the first apron and currently have just over $500,000 to work with in space. So, making a big move is tricky, but not impossible.

Mostly, for the Warriors to land a star, they’re likely going to have to put Jonathan Kuminga and/or draft picks on the table in a deal. That’s in addition to probably having to move Andrew Wiggins to match salary.

If it’s a blockbuster trade or a smaller deal to consolidate, while adding depth, expect Golden State to trade De’Anthony Melton. Yes, that’s a little harsh as he’s out for the season, but it’s really just math. Melton’s $12.8 million salary will go a long way towards salary-matching. And because he’s on an expiring deal, the Warriors could re-sign him next summer as a free agent, even if they trade him away now.

Houston Rockets

Needs: Shooting, playmaking

The Houston Rockets are kind of a tricky one. They’re still growing with their young core. They definitely need more shooting, and could use more playmaking, but they won’t want to do that at the expense of their developing players. They’ve said as much repeatedly.

In some ways, Houston is more likely to stand pat at the deadline. Then they can survey where things land, figure out what they need after a postseason run, and make their big move this coming summer.

But if Jimmy Butler really wants to play in Houston, as per reports… Or Kevin Durant surprisingly becomes available… Or (insert veteran star here) is put on the market…

Any of those probably change the calculus for the Rockets. Houston can get to over $40 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (options or non-guarantees) tradable salary without touching a single core rotation player. Rafael Stone also has some extra draft picks to move, including ones from the Suns and the Nets.

All of the above means that if a star is available, and the Rockets want to be involved in trading for that star, they can be. That makes them a team to watch now, closer to the deadline or next offseason.

Los Angeles Lakers

Needs: Depth, scoring, playmaking, perimeter defense

Nothing has really gone right for the Los Angeles Lakers this season, outside of Dalton Knecht showing he slipped too far in the draft. When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, sitting in the middle isn’t acceptable. That means a shakeup is probably coming.

The Lakers struggles as a decidedly average team with little upside, combined with overflowing frustration around transaction inaction, means we’re on the clock for James to suggest a move or two is necessary. And we’re using “suggest” to be nice instead of calling it a demand, which is what it will really be.

The Lakers have the same tight margins as many others, despite not yet triggering a hard cap at either apron. But being well over the first apron, and barely below the second apron, means that Rob Pelinka is going to have to be careful with any moves he makes.

Despite that, Los Angeles has tradable salaries. The only really off-limits players will probably be James, Davis and possibly Knecht (less so for the rookie, but they aren’t just tossing him in deals either). D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, any of the minimum players and, yes, the once-untouchable Austin Reaves could all be moved.

For the Lakers, the reason to make an early move is simple: They need to climb the standings. The last two years have seen Los Angeles have to push really hard for postseason positioning, and that’s resulted in still having to work through the Play-In Tournament. If they want to avoid that this year, stacking wins sooner rather than later is important.

Orlando Magic

Needs: Shooting, playmaking, wing depth

The Orlando Magic have stayed remarkably solid since losing Paolo Banchero. But with Franz Wagner now down with the same injury as Banchero suffered, we’re approaching “three darts is too much” territory for Orlando.

That’s why the Magic are potentially a team to watch to make an early move. This team is good. They’ll be really good when they get Banchero and Wagner back, and that will happen as neither is out for the season. The defense will keep Orlando afloat for the next few weeks, but they could use more offensive punch.

Orlando has all of their own first- and second-round picks, an extra first-round pick (from Denver) and a couple of extra second-round picks. The Magic roster is also pretty well-stocked with talent, meaning rostering a whole bunch more young players might not be possible over the next few years.

In addition, Jeff Weltman can put together some packages featuring solid veterans, youngsters with upside and draft picks. That should have the Magic in position to make a move if they find one.

Here’s the challenge: Orlando has been active at the deadline in the past, but it’s generally been with smaller moves, especially after they held a fire sale in 2021.

The counter: None of the Magic teams since then have been as good as this one is. This Magic team can make a real playoff run. They need to bolster the offense around Banchero and Wagner to do that. By making an early move, Orlando could stabilize the offense until the stars return, while setting themselves up even better in the long-term.

Bonus Player to Watch

Jimmy Butler

News broke on Tuesday that the Miami Heat are open to listening to offers for Jimmy Butler. That’s not all that surprising, given Butler and the Heat have seemed to be moving in different directions since last summer. Pat Riley was critical of Butler during the offseason, while Butler was scarcely moved in his extension desires.

Is a trade coming here? Butler makes $48.8 million this season. That’s a very big number to move in-season. But it’s not impossible. For example. Houston could get there relatively easily (Miami would need to waive a bunch of players or re-route them elsewhere because it would be an imbalanced trade roster-wise). The Warriors are reportedly star-hunting, have liked Butler in the past and could put together some contracts to make a run at the veteran wing.

A player of Butler’s status appearing on the trade market juices things. Also, acquiring someone like Butler takes a bit of time to gel. That could mean we see him on the move sooner rather than later this trade season. Think of this like the OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam moves last year. Big trades that came together earlier than expected, but helped to kickstart the Raptors rebuild, while pushing the Knicks and Pacers playoff runs.

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad
Get everything you want, lose what you had
Down here in New Orleans

Those are lyrics from “Down In New Orleans” as sung by Dr. John. And they pretty well sum up the history of the New Orleans Pelicans.

You had the high of the team relocating from Charlotte. Then Hurricane Katrina forced the team away for a couple of years.

Anthony Davis came in the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery and brought the Pelicans a playoff series win with a monster first-round upset in 2018. Then things fell apart and Davis forced a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers just one year later.

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery delivered generational prospect Zion Williamson to ostensibly replace Davis as the franchise player. Moments of pure magic have been surrounded by Williamson being out of the lineup for long stretches.

Now, the Pelicans are facing a series of difficult decisions down in New Orleans.

Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, C.J. McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado.

Even with nary a center in that group, that’s a pretty good eight-man rotation.

The Pelicans have played exactly zero games with that group together. In fact, it’s been so bad, that the most minutes played by any even three-man combination of that top-eight is 87 by Ingram, Jones and McCollum.

Injuries have destroyed this team. New Orleans is 4-13 as of this writing. That’s last in the Western Conference and only slightly ahead of the Washington Wizards and Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record overall.

Essentially, after the Murray trade, it felt like the Pelicans had everything you want (minus a good, experience starting center). But as the song tells us, New Orleans can make you happy or make you real sad.

Right now, things are real sad for the Pels.

But the NBA season doesn’t stop in late-November, no matter how bad things get. There are still 65 games left as of this writing. And trade season is only a few weeks away from opening up.

Maybe those 65 games won’t really end up mattering all that much for wins, because the Pelicans are already five games out of the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. But trade season is where we could get some of that good New Orleans magic.

In an ideal world, the Pelicans would move Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum in deals that return younger players and draft assets. Sadly, we don’t live in an ideal world.

Let’s start with Ingram. New Orleans tried to move him over the summer. Nothing happened, because other teams have the same consternation about Ingram that the Pels do: He wants a max or near-max deal, and he’s not really at that level. One All-Star appearance and a bunch of injury-impacted seasons can’t get you another max deal.

Those contract desires have kept Ingram from extending with the Pelicans. And any acquiring team would have the same issues, plus whatever they had to give up in a trade to get Ingram. That’s why the veteran forward is still in New Orleans.

Ingram is having a nice season. His efficiency is a bit down, but that’s because there have been a lot of nights where his available teammates have consisted of two-way players and G League callups. Most encouraging? Ingram has been the lone Pelican to stay healthy this season. 

Ingram makes $36 million this season. That’s a big number, but it doesn’t tip into the $40-to-$50-plus million range where it gets really hard to move in-season.

The good news for New Orleans, and a potential Ingram trade, is that teams get increasingly desperate as the trade deadline closes in. Someone is going to look at Ingram and decide that they can get a scoring/playmaking wing, and that they’ll worry about the next contract later. At that point, it’s up to the Pelicans to establish a price. It’s not quite a “take whatever you can get” situation, but given Ingram’s future with the team seems to be pretty murky, a younger player and/or a draft pick or two should be enough.

McCollum is a different story. His first two seasons with the Pelicans have been better than he often gets credit for. McCollum has been efficient as a shooter and playmaker, and he does a nice job playing off-ball in an offense keyed by Ingram and Zion Williamson. There isn’t a lot of defense there, but McCollum is smart enough to be an ok help defender and director, when he’s not left exposed in pure isolation situations.

That all sounds good, right? Then you look at the contract. McCollum is on the books for $33.3 million this season and $30.6 million next season. That’s not great for an offense-first guard who is 33 years old.

Still, guard help is always in demand around the deadline. The return for McCollum won’t be as good as it will be for Ingram. However, if New Orleans can take back a swap of not-great money that maybe runs a year longer, they could extract a pick or promising young player from a guard-needy team.

But those deals aren’t the needle-movers. Not in the biggest way. To do that, the Pelicans have to consider what was once thought unthinkable.

It’s time to consider trading Zion Williamson. If not a trade, then it’s worth a quiet conversation about getting out of his contract after the season.

Yes, you read that correctly. Here’s why:

• 24 games

• 61 games

• 0 games

• 29 games

• 70 games

• 6 games

Those are the games played for Zion Williamson in his six-year career. That’s a total of 190 games played out of 407 possible games over six seasons. That’s 46.7% availability. In addition, Williamson has played in zero of the Pelicans 10 playoff games since he’s been in the NBA.

When healthy, Williamson is a dynamic offensive force. He’s nearly undeniable going to the rim. He shoots just well enough from the outside that teams can’t sag off him. When they do, Williamson is quick and explosive enough to still finish over a dropped defender. He’s also a very good and, importantly, very willing passer.

The rebounding has never been quite what we hoped it would be. That’s a problem. The defense is also lacking. There are still some crazy turnovers mixed in there too.

But, honestly, none of those negatives really matter all that much. It’s about the availability, or lack thereof.

Williamson is owed the following on his deal:

• 2024-25: $36.7 million ($18.4 million guaranteed until league-wide date of January 7)

• 2025-26: $39.4 million ($7.8 million guaranteed (assuming Williamson met weight clauses), with guarantees escalating based on games played in 2024-25)

• 2026-27: $42.2 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2025-26)

• 2027-28: $44.9 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2026-27)

That’s a lot to take in. But to make it really simple: The Pelicans can get out of Williamson’s contract after this season with somewhere between zero and $7.8 million owed to him, if he can’t get on the court for 35 of the 65 games New Orleans has left this season. Given Williamson is shelved indefinitely with a hamstring strain, hitting that games-played trigger seems unlikely.

So…do you look at trading your franchise player? Or do you simply waive him and hit the summer with somewhere between $25 million and $30 million in cap space to work with next offseason?

Simply waiving Williamson has to be somewhere close to 99% off the table. While the idea of wiping that contract off the books entirely has to have some appeal, it seems like a fairly “last resort” type of approach.

Trading Williamson? That’s not as crazy as it once seemed.

NBA teams are generally run by folks with big egos. They all believe a player who didn’t fit on one team will fit on their team. And they all believe that they can be the ones to crack the code on keeping an injury-prone player on the floor. When that player is as talented as Zion Williamson is, that belief and the willingness to take a risk is multiplied by a great margin.

If the Pelicans put Williamson on the trade block, they’re going to get offers. It may not be the four-picks and multiple-swaps blockbusters we’ve seen in the past, but New Orleans would net a healthy return for Williamson.

Trading a guy who you built this whole iteration of your team around is a very hard pill to swallow. But when that guy has played in less than half of your games over a six-year period, you have to consider taking a gulp of whatever liquid you have handy and you pop that pill.

There's been trials and tribulations
You know I've had my share
But I've climbed the mountain, I've crossed the river
And I'm almost there, I'm almost there, I'm almost there

Anika Noni Rose sung those lyrics as Princess Tiana in The Princess and the Frog. They also apply to the New Orleans Pelicans.

We’re not addressing any ideas of trading anyone like Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins or Jose Alvarado. New Orleans just traded for Murray and just re-signed Murphy. Jones has one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league. Hawkins is still on his rookie scale deal and Alvarado’s contract is so small, there’s no reason to not keep him.

It’s really the trio of Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum and Zion Williamson who you have to consider moving. The real question: Should you do it?

Ingram is probably the easiest one. Assuming you aren’t just giving him away, and the Pelicans won’t have to do that, they should move him. Unless he comes way down in his ask for his next contract, there’s no real reason Ingram should finish the season on this team.

McCollum should be moved, if you can net a positive return. That might come by taking on some onerous longer-term money, but that’s not the end of the world. If you have to pay to get off McCollum’s deal, you don’t make a deal. In that case, the Pelicans need to keep him and ride it out until he’s on an expiring contract next season.

Williamson is by far the hardest decision. Like the song Down In New Orleans says:

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad

The Williamson magic is so very good. It makes you so very happy. But when he misses so many games, that’s so very bad and makes you real sad.

As painful as it is, the Pelicans have to consider moving Williamson. Let another team be swayed by the potential you see in the games that he does play. If the right deal comes along, it’s time for New Orleans to move along.

But what are they moving to? The 2025 NBA Draft is a good start. New Orleans has all of their own draft picks, including in this loaded 2025 NBA Draft. They’ve already had Lady Luck smile upon them twice in the lottery in the past. A third time would mean bringing Cooper Flagg to New Orleans.

But even if the ping pong balls don’t bounce their way, the Pelicans have already been bad enough that they could end up with Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, V.J. Edgecombe, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore or another potential franchise guy, should one emerge. The 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded with top-end talent.

It wasn’t how anyone planned for it to go. The Pelicans were supposed to be good. But they aren’t. Injuries have left them a mess. Even as some players have started to return to the lineup, the hole might be too deep. Sure, it’s worth giving this group another few weeks to see if they can spark a turnaround. But the Western Conference is unforgiving. It might be too late in New Orleans.

By having the courage to take some more lumps, New Orleans can put themselves on a path to be better than ever. It wasn’t really by choice, but the path to where we are has already been walked. We do get to choose how we move forward. And it’s time for Pelicans to choose to walk a new path.

There’s been trials and tribulations, but the New Orleans Pelicans are almost there. Like Tiana sang to us: People down there might think you’re crazy, but you can’t care. You can’t take the easy way. You gotta make it happen. You’re almost there.

With all due respect to Agatha Christie, the greatest mystery going right now may involve the NBA and some obscure bookkeeping. No, Steve Ballmer didn’t commit the crime in the Intuit Dome with the Tax Apron. But it doesn’t make the whole sordid mess any easier to untangle that solving the murder in an Agatha Christie novel or a game of Clue.

It’ll be no surprise to anyone that the NBA salary cap and CBA is a complicated thing to figure out. That’s only been made even more complicated by the introduction of the first and second aprons, and all the associated restrictions that come with them.

Further compounding the issues are bonuses. On their face, NBA bonuses are super simple. If a player achieved the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Likely” and added to the player’s cap and tax number for this season. If the player didn’t achieve the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Unlikely”. It is then subtracted from the player’s cap and tax number for this season if it was previously “Likely”, or it is left off of their cap and tax number for this season entirely.

Simple enough right? Not so fast, my friend! Much like Wadsworth would say in the movie version of Clue (an all-time classic everyone should see!), it’s never quite that simple.

When we start figuring out the math for the first and second apron, which function as hard caps (if so triggered), then we have to add in all of the player’s bonuses. Let’s do an example to hopefully make this easier to understand!

• Base Salary: $25,000,000
• Likely Bonuses: $1,000,000
• Unlikely Bonuses: $1,000,000
• Cap/Tax Amount: $26,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses)
• Tax Apron Amount: $27,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses + Unlikely Bonuses)

Simple enough, right? Again: Not so fast, my friend! Well…with a bit less emphasis this time. The math really is that simple. But how it gets applied is far more complicated.

To paraphrase our dear Wadsworth, the answer might be yes or no, but it really depends on the question you are asking.

To go forward, we have to go back. Let’s talk about the luxury tax and the first and second aprons and the hard caps that can be incurred at them. The pertinent figures are:

• Salary Cap: $140,588,000
• Luxury Tax: $170,814,000
• First Apron: $178,132,000
• Second Apron: $188,931,000

As of today, here’s where NBA teams fall within each grouping:

• Under the cap: 1 team
• Over the cap, under the luxury tax: 15 teams
• Over the tax: 5 teams
• Over the first apron: 5 teams
• Over the second apron: 4 teams

So, we’ve got nearly half of the league over the tax, with a third over one apron or the other. And, of those 15 team that are over the cap and under the tax, seven of those teams are within $5 million of being over the tax.

Starting to understand why these various lines matter so much?

Now that we have an idea of where each team sits, let’s talk hard caps. Within the new CBA, there are 10 ways a team can become hard-capped: six at the first apron and four at the second apron.

First Apron Hard Cap Triggers

• Signing a player to a contract via the Non-Taxpayer MLE that is greater than allowable via the Taxpayer MLE (years, salary or both)
• Signing a player to a contract via the Bi-Annual Exception
• Acquiring a player via Sign-and-Trade
• Signing a player after a buyout if that player made more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE that season
• Using more than 100% salary-matching in a trade
• Using a TPE that was created in the prior season

Second Apron Hard Cap Triggers

• Signing a player via the Taxpayer MLE
• Aggregating two or more player salaries in a trade
• Sending out cash in a trade
• Acquiring a player using a TPE that was created in a prior Sign-and-Trade

In addition, if a team isn’t hard-capped but is above the First or Second Apron, they cannot do any of things that would hard cap them at that respective apron.

One last reminder: If you hard-capped, you can’t exceed that hard cap by even $1.

Teams currently hard-capped at the first apron:

• Atlanta Hawks
• Brooklyn Nets
• Chicago Bulls
• Dallas Mavericks
• Golden State Warriors
• Houston Rockets
• LA Clippers
• New Orleans Pelicans
• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Sacramento Kings
• Toronto Raptors
• Washington Wizards

Teams currently hard-capped at the second apron:

• Charlotte Hornets
• Denver Nuggets
• Indiana Pacers
• New York Knicks

Got all that? If not, take some time to read it again. Because we’re about to apply all of this to three real-world, real-time NBA situations.

New York Knicks and the 13th through 15th roster spots

The Knicks are hard-capped at the second apron. New York went to great lengths to make sure that their offseason machinations didn’t trigger a first apron hard cap. Their margins are already tight enough as it is.

Following their offseason moves, the Knicks find themselves with just 12 players on standard contracts. The CBA dictates that teams can only dip below 14 players on standard contracts for 14 days at a time and up to 28 total days per season. As of this writing, New York is roughly $3.6 million below their second apron hard cap.

A non-prorated veteran minimum deal for this season was for $2.1 million. A non-prorated rookie minimum deal is for $1.2 million. As you can see, the Knicks had room to add one veteran minimum signing and one rookie minimum deal. Or they could have done a combination of two or three rookie minimum signings…kind of.

Remember how we said all of this stuff is complicated? Well, here’s another one of those pesky complications!

If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did not retain draft rights for, that player actually counts against the luxury tax and the aprons at the veteran minimum or 2 Years of Service amount. If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did retain draft rights for, that player counts at their actual salary amount.

So, the Knicks can’t just sign any rookie to a rookie minimum deal. That wouldn’t fit under the second apron hard cap, assuming they also sign a player to a veteran minimum.

As of this writing, there is reporting the Knicks plan to sign rookie center Ariel Hukporti to a two-year, minimum contract. Hukporti will hit the cap and tax at his prorated rookie minimum salary of just over $1 million. That’s the accounting , because he was a former Knicks draftee.

(Want some more cap nerdery? If you made it this far, you probably do! Hukporti’s two-year deal will include a team option for the 2025-26 season. That will allow the Knicks to decline that option this offseason, then sign to Hukporti to a longer deal than the two-year amount allowed by using the Minimum Exception.)

Taking it further, New York will likely sign a veteran to a prorated minimum deal too. That should land at about $1.9 million. If both of those signings take place on the last possible day to meet NBA roster requirements, the Knicks should have $580,872 in clearance under the second apron hard cap. That’s not enough to sign anyone else now, but on February 25, when there are 48 days left in the regular season, the Knicks would be able to sign a second prorated veteran minimum contract.

(Should New York make a salary-clearing trade between now and the trade deadline, all of this math changes, potentially to point of not really mattering. The Knicks can also play games with starting the 14-day clock again by waiving a player, but that can get really complicated and isn’t worth diving into now.)

Those are pretty tight margins, but they’re workable. A lot of teams will carry only 14 players on standard contracts until we get past the trade deadline and into buyout season.

As far as trades for New York the rest of this year? Keep in mind what we called out triggering a second apron hard cap. The Knicks are so tight to that figure, that making deals could be really difficult for the rest of this league year.

Dejounte Murray’s Bonuses and The New Orleans Pelicans Tricky Tax Timidity

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of two NBA franchises who have never paid the luxury tax. (The other is the Charlotte Hornets, for those interested in very niche NBA trivia.) Given that they aren’t exactly a title contender this year, the Pelicans probably aren’t jumping into paying the tax this season either. There’s also a matter of getting an $18-20 million check as part of the tax distribution if you aren’t a taxpaying team. 

But here’s the challenge: New Orleans is currently about $3.5 million over the luxury tax line.

Now, that’s not a big deal. Last year, the Pelicans were over the tax, but salary-dumped Kira Lewis Jr. at the trade deadline and ended up dodging the tax. It’s fair to expect a similar type of move this season. Waiving Jaylen Nowell before his contract guarantees, plus salary-dumping a minimum deal (Javonte Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Daniel Theis) will get them there.

But the Pelicans might have more wiggle room than it currently looks like. This is where Dejounte Murray’s bonuses come into play.

Dejounte Murray has a lot of bonuses in his contract. They add up to early $2.1 million in bonuses in fact. As of right now, almost $700,000 of those bonuses are considered likely. That bring Murray’s cap and tax hit to $29,517,134.

But, not is all that is seems here. Because of course it isn’t, right?

Some of Murray’s likely bonuses are tied to him playing 65 games. If he doesn’t hit 65 games played, the bonus flips over to unlikely. And, given that Murray is out for several more weeks, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that he’ll hit the 65 games played marker.

This ends up mattering for the Pelicans, because even though his cap/tax hit of $29.5 million won’t adjust until after the season, that adjustment will factor into the tax calculation for New Orleans. So, removing nearly $700,000 in bonuses brings the Pelicans that much closer to dodging that tax.

That means as New Orleans makes their rest-of-season moves, they’ll probably working with Murray at a slightly different tax figure. That’s because he’s probably going to miss out on most of his bonuses for this season.

On the flip side, towards the first apron, at which the Pelicans are hard-capped, he counts for the full amount of his contract, including any likely AND unlikely bonuses. So, that would make trading Murray a potentially trick situation. But the Pelicans aren’t very likely to move a player they just paid a heavy price to acquire.

Instead, let’s look at this situation through a different lens entirely.

Cam Johnson and The Apron Aggregation Anomaly

When it comes to trading players whose unlikely bonuses can cause an issue, there’s perhaps no better example than that of Brooklyn Nets wing Cam Johnson.

Let’s start with a simple question: Would the Nets trade Johnson?

The answer: Yes.

Brooklyn is just starting a rebuild. While Johnson’s contract is a fair value and declines from year to year, it runs for three years. That might be longer than a rebuilding Nets team really wants. And, arguably most importantly, Johnson has solid trade value. Teams are always looking for shooting with size and Johnson brings that. If Brooklyn can get assets for Johnson in the form of draft picks and younger talent, they’ll be interested.

So, what’s the challenge with trading Johnson? Again, those pesky bonuses come into play.

Johnson’s current cap/tax hit is $23,625,000. However, because of his bonuses, his apron hit sits at $27,000,000. That’s a difference of $3,375,000. While not a massive amount, it’s one that makes acquiring Johnson tricky for a team dealing apron issues.

For example, one popular NBA Trade Machine proposal features Johnson headed to the Los Angeles Lakers. In order to acquire Johnson in any reasonable trade construction, the Lakers have to aggregate salaries. That means they trigger a second apron hard cap. As it stands today, Los Angeles is only a scant $45,001 under the second apron. That’s almost no wiggle room, and there’s certainly not enough to bring in Johnson, given he’d account for the additional $3,375,000 towards the apron.

You can mess around with different combinations, but it gets tricky to find a match that makes sense for both the Nets and the Lakers. Given more than half the league is dealing with some form of hard cap, and a few more would be in trouble if they triggered one, finding a team that can easily absorb an additional $3.375 million is going to be somewhat difficult.

By no means does this make Johnson untradable. It just means that teams will have to get creative to find a workable deal, and may need to rope in a third team to get the trade done.

For years, bonuses have been a part of NBA contracts. The most altruistic reason to use them is as true incentives to spur better performance.

Sometimes teams use them to create additional cap or tax room. In 2019, the Brooklyn Nets were super creative in manufacturing some additional cap space by giving Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving some easily achievable, but initially unlikely, bonuses. The Nets gave both players bonuses built around games played, which they knew they would eventually hit, given they were both coming off seasons with missed time.

Teams have also used bonuses as a way to give players a chance at more money, but without doing it directly. Sometimes this is for cap-manipulation reasons, while other times it’s just to give the player something to work for, while still feeling like they got a bigger deal. And, yes, sometimes it’s to win the press conference (or maybe win the tweet?) by putting an artificially larger number out into the world than the player will actually earn.

However, we’re starting to see a change in the tide when it comes to bonuses. This offseason, 16 players signed deals with bonuses attached. However, some of those were carryover situations in extensions. That’s a bit lower than usual. And there’s a chance that the number of players signing deals with incentives will lessen even further in the future.

“For as long as we think the apron might be an issue, we’re probably going to avoid bonuses,” a Western Conference GM told Spotrac. “It simply creates an unnecessary hamstring when you are trying to build out your roster.”

An Eastern Conference executive thinks the bonus issue is going to made trades too hard for teams dealing with a hard cap.

“Look, no one feels bad for you if you trigger a hard cap. You did it to yourself. But the reality is that the idea of a hard cap is to make it…well…hard to make moves. And it works!

But when it comes to bonuses, the hard cap and making a trade, that’s an extra level of difficulty. I likened it to playing a game, but you aren’t allowed to shoot threes. Can you win? Sure. But is it harder? No doubt. It’s just takes a lot more work to get done,” he said.

A longtime agent told Spotrac they’d be fine if bonuses became a thing of the past.

“Pay guys up front. Stop playing games. I get it. I really do. But it’s nice to see some of these rules coming back on those who think they are the smartest guys in the room,” the agent said.

Bonuses aren’t gone. Some deals that run out for several more years have them. And there will always be a real reason to put them in a deal. But now, because of the aprons and the ease with which a team can become hard-capped, teams have an extra level of consideration when adding bonuses into signings and making trades that didn’t fully exist previously.

When trade season unofficially opens in mid-December, don’t be surprised if you hear teams and players bemoaning the issues the aprons and hard caps are causing. As we approach the trade deadline, don’t be surprised if those moans and groans turn into full-blown loud complaints. This is especially true if a deal gets scuttled because fitting in a bonus under a hard cap is too difficult. And, remember, unlike a trade bonus, a player can’t waive a contract bonus to make a trade work.

RELATED:

NBA Apron Tracker

NBA Tax Tracker

NBA Trade Machine

The 2024 NBA offseason and early-season transaction period is behind us. Minus a handful of signings here and there, NBA transactions will go dormant until trade season opens up in mid-to-late-December. With extensions largely completed (for now!) and 2025-26 rookie scale team option decisions made, it’s time to look forward!

The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.

The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. This past year, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.

That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s not a lot of cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.

However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement, in addition to the usual handful of big trades.

With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 spending power around the NBA. This can, and will, change throughout the season. Teams will make decisions about the future up through the trade deadline. That will create more spending power for some, while using it up for others.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Teams – 2 Teams

1. Brooklyn Nets: $40.7 million

2. Washington Wizards: $27.5 million

Two teams project to have cap space in the summer of 2025. That’s it. (For reference: I’ve been doing cap space projections for well over a decade and have never had a year-out projection with just two teams.) That’s how much guaranteed money is already on the books for next season around the NBA.

Brooklyn gets to north of $40 million fairly easily. They let all of their free agents walk, at least initially, minus restricted free agents Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If Dorian Finney-Smith opts out – a true 50-50 decision – the Nets will have nearly $55 million in cap space. And, of course, this roster is a work-in-progress. So, don’t be surprised if Brooklyn sheds more money, or possibly takes some more on for future assets. Sean Marks is just getting started with his second rebuild.

Washington is still in the “deconstruction phase” with their roster, per their own front office. That means this projection is pretty tenuous. The Wizards could move off some money, with a whole bunch of tradable veterans. But that might come via taking on some onerous money, while adding more draft capital and young talent. For now, the flexibility is what really matters for the Wizards.

Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 Teams

1. Charlotte Hornets

2. Utah Jazz

It’s unlikely either of these teams will go the cap space route. Charlotte has players they’d like to re-sign and keep on their roster (Tre Mann, Cody Martin, Nick Richards), which will likely keep them from having cap space.

In order for the Jazz to get to having some cap space, they’d have to move John Collins or he’d have to opt out. Given the landscape this summer, Collins won’t recoup the $25.6 million he’ll make on his option. So, leave him on the Utah books for now. In addition, the Jazz project to have three first-round picks, including the potential first overall selection. That’s going to add decent chunk of change to the cap sheet too.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 10 Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks

2. Chicago Bulls

3. Detroit Pistons

4. Houston Rockets

5. LA Clippers

6. Memphis Grizzlies

7. Oklahoma City Thunder

8. Portland Trail Blazers

9. San Antonio Spurs

10. Toronto Raptors

As per usual, this group features a mix of title contenders, playoff contenders and rebuilding teams.

For the rebuilding teams, the Bulls are still digging out from underneath some signings and extensions they made when they were chasing contention. The cap sheet is cleaning up, but not quite there yet. And a new deal for Josh Giddey is looming too.

The Pistons took on a good chunk of money this past offseason in some of their deals. They’ve got pretty good flexibility overall, but this summer doesn’t project to be one of big spending in Detroit.

Portland is still dealing with the fallout from the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades. They took on more money than was desirable in those deals, but it’s not the end of the world. This situation is also pretty volatile, as the Blazers have a lot of veterans who could be on the move via trades. Keep an eye on Portland.

Some might be surprised to see the Spurs not in the cap space group. San Antonio projects to have three first-round picks in the upcoming draft. All of them currently project to land between the fifth and fifteenth pick. That, combined with previous deals, eats up the Spurs cap space.

Toronto used up any chance of having cap space when they extended Scottie Barnes, re-signed Immanuel Quickley and extended Kelly Olynyk. No complaints though, as those were all solid signings. The good news is that the Raptors have some money coming off the books, and that should leave room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Hawks, Rockets, Clippers and Grizzlies are all in roughly the same spots. All are would-be playoff teams. The first three are still retooling their rosters, but should have enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The Grizzlies are mostly there with their roster, but have so few spots to fill, that they should be fine using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Then we have the Thunder. The big spending of last summer won’t be repeated, but that doesn’t mean Oklahoma City doesn’t have flexibility. One of the NBA’s best teams is young, talented and the front office has a pretty clean cap sheet and still has a whole bunch of draft picks to trade. Good luck to the other 29 teams!

Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 5 teams

1. Indiana Pacers

2. Los Angeles Lakers

3. New Orleans Pelicans

4. Orlando Magic

5. Philadelphia 76ers

All playoff contenders in this group, with a couple hopeful of being more than that.

The Pacers have been pretty conservative with spending over the years. Recently, Indiana has been aggressive about extending and re-signing their own players. If that continues with Myles Turner in free agency this summer, the Pacers will be closer to having the Taxpayer MLE than the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Lakers created some flexibility by declining the third-year rookie scale option for Jalen Hood-Schifino. With LeBron James newfound willingness to help Los Angeles create some spending power, don’t be surprised if they maneuver to having the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The one caveat: If the Lakers make a big in-season trade this year, that could wipe out any future flexibility.

New Orleans has never paid the tax in franchise history. They probably won’t start that this year, as they are close enough to dodging the tax line to do so. That said, working right around the margins will continue for at least another year. Then things should free up a bit in 2026. Keep an eye on what happens with Brandon Ingram here. That will decide a lot of where the Pelicans are headed cap-/tax-wise.

The Magic locked into a whole bunch of long-term money this past offseason. That’s going to have them dancing around the luxury tax line and possibly even living in between the tax aprons. Having some team options on the books could give them the flexibility to drop salary and open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE, but they seem pretty content with the roster right now.

The Sixers pulled off the rare feat of using cap space and ending up as a tax team this season. That’s how much having Tyrese Maxey on a low cap hold meant to Philadelphia. Next year, they could create some additional wiggle room by moving off a couple of non-guaranteed deals. But the more likely path is that Daryl Morey will swing a trade or two this season to take on some money into next year. That’ll put the 76ers in Taxpayer MLE range or maybe even into second apron range.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 teams

1. Golden State Warriors

2. Sacramento Kings

The Warriors and Kings are similar spots. Both did a lot of maneuvering this past offseason and that’s got them with a good amount of money on the books, with more likely getting added soon.

Golden State has some key free agents in Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II. If they re-sign those guys, especially Kuminga, they’ll be back over the tax and nearing the second apron.

The Kings issue is more about the number of roster spots that they have to fill. Half of the Sacramento roster is going to hit free agency this summer. That likely includes Keon Ellis, who the Kings would be smart to decline their team option for, so that they can control the process with Ellis as a restricted free agent. With six players making between $11 million and $44 million, that doesn’t leave a ton of extra spending power.

Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 6 teams

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

2. Dallas Mavericks

3. Denver Nuggets

4. Miami Heat

5. Milwaukee Bucks

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The good news? All of these teams are playoff teams. The bad news? They are all really, really expensive playoff teams.

For the Cavs, this is mostly about what happens with Caris LeVert. If he’s re-signed to a fair-value deal, Cleveland will be a second apron team. If he’s not, they might have just enough room to squeeze in a signing with the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is dependent on what happens with Kyrie Irving. If he opts out and pushes for a max or near-max deal, the Mavs will be near the second apron. If Irving opts in, or re-signs for a similar salary with additional years tacked on, Dallas might be able to get to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Denver is in the same spot they’ve been in before. They can use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to fill one of their couple of open roster spots. But let’s not give out any second-year player options this time, ok?

Miami is all about Jimmy Butler. If he’s back, the Heat are dancing around the first and second aprons. If Butler moves on, then Miami could have some unexpected flexibility. This is a pretty massive summer for the Heat, both in the short- and long-term.

As for Milwaukee and Minnesota, they may be able to dip under the second apron. If one of Khris Middleton or Brook Lopez is gone, the Bucks will have a bunch of flexibility. If they’re both back, they’ll be over the second apron. This is very much a year-to-year thing in Milwaukee right now.

The Wolves are in an interesting spot. Rudy Gobert declining his option and extending freed up about $10 million in flexibility. We project Julius Randle to opt in (he won’t have big offers this summer with a lack of cap space around the league), but Minnesota still has to re-sign Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If they do that, they’ll be up over the second apron again.

Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 3 Teams

1. Boston Celtics

2. New York Knicks

3. Phoenix Suns

This group got halved from last year’s projections. The combination of the cap going up and some money coming off the books took four to five teams to within range of dodging the second apron.

Boston is all but guaranteed to be a second apron team. They’ll probably even challenge Phoenix for the largest payroll in the league. The big questions: Is Al Horford back? And how much will he cost the Celtics in salary plus tax penalties, if he is?

Phoenix is in the same spot they’ve been in for a bit now. Super expensive without much recourse to not be super expensive. But this past summer’s moves made more sense than the first time the Suns were in this spot. That signals Phoenix may be figuring out how to live as a second apron team.

That leaves the Knicks, who are in a really interesting spot. They’ve got nearly $195 million committed for just nine players. That leaves six roster spots to fill, which means they’ll push over the second apron. The real intrigue comes with how far they’ll push over. Will they re-sign Precious Achiuwa to bank some tradable salary, if for no other reason? Beyond that, trades (made within the host of second-apron restrictions) and signing a host of players to minimum deals is what we can expect in New York this summer.

NBA Opening Night is here! It doesn’t come with quite the fanfare of Major League Baseball’s Opening Day or NFL Kickoff Weekend, but the NBA is back. The Boston Celtics will get their rings and raise a record 18th banner to the rafters. Then, the chase for the 2025 title is on.

With the regular season upon us, NBA teams have finalized their opening night rosters. The league’s financial landscape has never been more complex. The days of being under the cap, over the cap or over the tax are long gone. Now, we have first and second aprons, and 10 different ways to become hard-capped at those aprons.

But don’t fret! We’ve got you covered with where each team stands with the 2024-25 NBA season tipping off.

Team Salary Landscape

There are now five buckets that teams fall in, depending on how much team salary they are carrying. We’ll run through them in order of most to least expensive.

Second Apron Teams

Boston Celtics: $7.6 million over the second apron

Milwaukee Bucks: $6.5 million over the second apron

Minnesota Timberwolves: $17.2 million over the second apron

Phoenix Suns: $31.5 million over the second apron

The full weight of the second apron has come to bear this season. After a transitional year, which saw only some of the second apron restrictions kick in, the NBA’s most expensive teams are handcuffed like never before.

The good news for Boston, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Phoenix? All are title contenders. The bad news? None of this foursome has the ability to add much throughout the year. At least not without subtracting key rotation players to do so.

First Apron Teams

Denver Nuggets: $5.6 million over the first apron

Los Angeles Lakers: $10.8 million over the first apron

Miami Heat: $9.2 million over the first apron

New York Knicks: $7.2 million over the first apron

Philadelphia 76ers: $4.6 million over the first apron

The first apron is only slightly less restrictive than the second apron. It’s a little easier for these teams to make trades and the like, but only a little easier.

Much like the second apron group, the first apron teams all fancy themselves as title contenders. That’s definitely true of the Nuggets, Knicks and Sixers. Lakers and Heat? We’ll see if their veteran stars can drag them there one more time.

Luxury Tax Teams

Cleveland Cavaliers: $1.7 million over the luxury tax

Dallas Mavericks: $5.4 million over the luxury tax

Golden State Warriors: $5.8 million over the luxury tax

LA Clippers: $2.5 million over the luxury tax

New Orleans Pelicans: $1.6 million over the luxury tax

This group is a mixed bag of good teams. The Mavericks are title contenders. The Cavaliers are hopeful of climbing into the contender tier. The Warriors, Clippers and Pelicans are part of a large group of teams battling for playoffs spots in a deep Western Conference.

The challenge for everyone in this group but the Cavs? They are all hard-capped at the first apron. That’s going to make adding to their roster in-season a difficult task.

Over The Cap Teams

Atlanta Hawks: $1.3 million under the luxury tax

Brooklyn Nets: $2.1 million under the luxury tax

Charlotte Hornets: $10.4 million under the luxury tax

Chicago Bulls: $4.5 million under the luxury tax

Houston Rockets: $10.5 million under the luxury tax

Indiana Pacers: $3.2 million under the luxury tax

Memphis Grizzlies: $3.9 million under the luxury tax

Oklahoma City Thunder: $11.5 million under the luxury tax

Orlando Magic: $20.5 million under the luxury tax

Portland Trail Blazers: $3.7 million under the luxury tax

Sacramento Kings: $3.7 million under the luxury tax

San Antonio Spurs: $21.1 million under the luxury tax

Toronto Raptors: $9.3 million under the luxury tax

Utah Jazz: $27.2 million under the luxury tax

Washington Wizards: $11.9 million under the luxury tax

As per usual, the NBA’s largest group of teams is living over the cap, but under the tax. This group is a mix of playoff contenders and rebuilding squads, outside of the Thunder, who are a title contender.

This is where the moves will happen. When there are trades in-season, expect these teams to be involved, either as direct parties or as helpful facilitators.

Under The Cap Team

Detroit Pistons: $10.2 million under the cap

The days of multiple teams hitting the season with oodles of cap space available are over. Teams have to hit the salary floor now, or they miss out on the end-of-year luxury tax disbursement. The Pistons have hit the floor, but enter the season as the league’s lone cap space team.

Detroit is also sitting on an open roster spot (more on that in a bit). That means they’ll be everyone’s favorite third team in complicated trades, especially between hard-capped teams (more on that in a bit too!). That should have new front office boss Trajan Langdon ready to pick off additional assets for his still-rebuilding team.

Hard Caps

Over half of the NBA is facing a hard cap at either the first or second apron. With 10 ways to become hard-capped now, teams are facing more roadblocks than ever to navigate around as they build their rosters. For each hard-capped team, we’ll break down which apron they are hard-capped at, and how much wiggle room they have.

First Apron Hard-Capped Teams

Atlanta Hawks: $5.4 million under the first apron

Brooklyn Nets: $5.2 million under the first apron

Chicago Bulls: $9.5 million under the first apron

Dallas Mavericks: $386,752 under the first apron

Golden State Warriors: $533,659 under the first apron

Houston Rockets: $15.2 million under the first apron

LA Clippers: $4.9 million under the first apron

New Orleans Pelicans: $4.4 million under the first apron

Oklahoma City Thunder: $17.4 million under the first apron

Sacramento Kings: $8.6 million under the first apron

Toronto Raptors: $10.5 million under the first apron

Washington Wizards: $11.6 million under the first apron

For some of these teams, the hard cap doesn’t really matter. The rebuilding teams aren’t going to end up in range for it to really matter.

For others, like the Mavs and Warriors, they are working up against some extremely tight margins. Golden State doesn’t even have enough room to fill their open 15th roster spot at the moment. The Clippers and Pelicans are somewhat tight to apron too. On the flip side, the Thunder continue to have incredible flexibility for a title contender. If there is a deal Oklahoma City wants to make, they can do so without any real hard cap challenges creeping in.

Second Apron Hard-Capped Teams

Charlotte Hornets: $28.5 million under the second apron

Denver Nuggets: $5.2 million under the second apron

Indiana Pacers: $18.9 million under the second apron

New York Knicks: $3.6 million under the second apron

For the Hornets and Pacers, their second apron hard cap is of no consequence. They won’t get anywhere close enough for it to matter.

The Nuggets have a bit of wiggle room, should they want to make an in-season trade.

As for the Knicks…it’s a challenge. New York did a wonderful job navigating all things CBA this summer to avoid a first apron hard cap. But they’ve still put themselves right up against the second apron. Right now, the Knicks have three open roster spots. They only have enough room to fill two of those spots, with one veteran minimum signing and one rookie minimum signing (and that has to be a player the team held/holds the draft rights for). That’s pretty tight to work around. Expect the Knicks to push the boundaries of how long they can go without 14 players on standard deals (up to two weeks at a time or for 28 total days per season) to try to create any form of additional wiggle room.

Open Roster Spots

Recently, we wrote about The NBA’s Vanishing 15th Roster Spot. To start the season, there are 15 standard roster spots open around the NBA. There are also two open two-way roster spots.

Open Standard Roster Spots

Boston Celtics: 1

Cleveland Cavaliers: 1

Detroit Pistons: 1

Golden State Warriors: 1

Houston Rockets: 1

Indiana Pacers: 1

Memphis Grizzlies: 1

Miami Heat: 1

New Orleans Pelicans: 1

New York Knicks: 3

Philadelphia 76ers: 1

Phoenix Suns: 1

Sacramento Kings: 1

We already covered what’s going on with the Warriors and Knicks. For the Celtics, Cavaliers, Heat, Pelicans, Sixers and Suns, this is about managing their luxury tax situation. These teams likely won’t fill their open spots until we’re deeper into the season.

The Pistons, Rockets, Pacers, Grizzlies and Kings are likely waiting for the right player. The latter four teams are also pursuing playoff spots, so keeping some additional flexibility is a smart play. And the Pistons could use their open spot to facilitate in-season trades using their remaining cap space, as mentioned earlier.

Open Two-Way Roster Spots

Detroit Pistons: 1

Orlando Magic: 1

These spots will likely get filled sooner, rather than later. Detroit was rumored to be signing Alondes Williams, but as of this writing that signing hasn’t gone official. Orlando may wait to see if any players shake loose early in the season, or if a G League player pops when that season starts in a couple of weeks.

Offseason Spending

For all of the consternation that the “New CBA is ruining the league and no one wants to spend money” teams doled out record sums this 2024 NBA Offseason.

Between free agent contracts, rookie signings and extensions, team committed to nearly $7.5 billion (yes, billion with a “B”) in new money. Of that amount, roughly $6.7 billion is fully guaranteed.

Last season, teams committed to almost $5.9 billion in new money, with $5.5 billion being guaranteed.

That’s an additional $1.6 billion of new money that was introduced into the system this offseason. And the new media rights deals don’t even start until the 2025-26 season.

The NBA is as healthy as it has ever been. The league is fairly wide open, with multiple teams fancying themselves as title contenders. More money is being spent then ever. And expansion is right around the corner. Life is good for all parties involved in the NBA.

Enjoy the season everyone!

NBA teams are wrapping up the preseason, with the regular season just days away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going team by team and looking some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest Division,  Northwest Division and Pacific Division out west. Then we headed east to cover the Southeast Division and Central Division. Now, we wrap up with a look at the Atlantic Division teams!

Boston Celtics

Big Rotation While Kristaps Porzingis Is Out

The Celtics are going to be without Kristaps Porzingis for the first couple of months of the season. Most expect Boston’s starting center to return sometime around Christmas or New Year’s Day. That means Joe Mazzulla has to figure out how to cover for Porzingis for the first 30 games or so.

Al Horford is back, and he’s the easy answer. Horford started 33 regular season games last season, then 15 of 19 playoff games when Porzingis was out. But it might not be that simple.

Boston knows how important Horford is to their team. They liked having him in a more limited role during last regular season. That kept him fresh and really productive throughout the team’s title run.

In the preseason, the Celtics started Luke Kornet alongside the other set starters. That may carry over to the regular season. That would keep Horford in a reserve role, where he’ll play around 25 minutes or so per game. Kornet has proven perfectly capable of being a productive player since joining the Celtics.

Horford also isn’t going to play back-to-back games this year. That means Boston will need more than Kornet. That’s where Xavier Tillman Sr. and Neemias Queta come in.

Tillman had a rough start to his Celtics tenure. He was injured when he arrived in Boston, then he sadly lost his father very unexpectedly. But the Celtics saw enough in Tillman to re-sign him this summer. He’ll be a part of things, especially if the corner three he’s been flashing proves to be a real thing.

Queta is a big bundle of energy whenever he hits the floor. He’s chaotic, but that’s valuable for a team where the other bigs play a more stable style. Queta is going to get into the mix simply because of his all-out hustle.

Mazzulla is going to have to piece it together until the playoffs. Even after Porzingis returns, the Celtics aren’t going to push him or Horford very hard. Boston’s goal is to be playing in June. That means getting a lot from Kornet, Tillman and Queta from mid-October through mid-April.

Brooklyn Nets

Forward Rotation

Brooklyn is leaning hard into rebuilding. They traded Mikal Bridges for a bundle of picks. They made an associated deal to reacquire their own 2025 first-round pick from the Houston Rockets. And Sean Marks isn’t done dealing either.

As it stands, the Nets backcourt looks fairly set…at least for now. Dennis Schroder and Cam Thomas look like the starters. Some mix of Ben Simmons (he’s healthy and looks good so far), Shake Milton and maybe Keon Johnson and Dariq Whitehead will handle the backup minutes.

Center is similarly settled, at least when everyone is healthy. Nic Claxton starts, Day’Ron Sharpe backs him up and Noah Clowney gets the remaining minutes at the five.

It’s the forward group that is a jumbled mess. Cameron Johnson has a long-term contract, and he’s a good shooter/scorer, so he’s going to be a starter. Dorian Finney-Smith is one of the team’s best defenders, and the Nets wants to keep his trade value high, so he’ll start too.

That leaves Bojan Bogdanovic (who Brooklyn wouldn’t mind boosting the trade value for), Trendon Watford (always productive when he gets minutes), Ziaire Williams (the kind of no-risk flyer that has paid off Marks in the past), Jalen Wilson (closed last season strong) and Simmons and Clowney for backup minutes.

That’s eight players who should see some minutes at the forward spots. Even if you take Simmons and Clowney out of the mix, that leaves six guys. Injuries will leave some guys unavailable at time, so it’ll probably sort itself out. But when everyone is available, new coach Jordi Fernandez has decisions to make.

It’s also worth noting that what will ultimately break up this logjam is Marks making a trade or two. It’s a decent bet that Finney-Smith and Bogdanovic won’t finish the season with the Nets. And it’s possible that Johnson – who other teams like quite a bit – could be on the move too.

New York Knicks

Bench Minutes

The Knicks had a big summer. The trades for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns were blockbuster deals that came from out of nowhere. While those were two terrific acquisitions, those trades did sap New York of a lot of their depth.

Bridges and Towns will join Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart in a very good starting lineup. Behind them, Miles McBride and Precious Achiuwa will have key rotation roles. Then…who knows?

Mitchell Robinson will play – and possibly start in a jumbo lineup that pushes Hart to the bench – when he’s healthy. But that won’t be until some point in January. Until then, Jericho Sims will likely see the backup center minutes behind Towns.

Landry Shamet (coming off an Exhibit 9 training camp deal) looked like he was going to earn minutes as a backup wing. That’s now in question due to a shoulder injury suffered late in the preseason. As of this writing, we don’t have any clarity on how much time Shamet might miss. That makes him even cracking the regular season roster a question mark.

In the course of adding Bridges and Towns, the Knicks find themselves hard-capped at the second tax apron. As of now, New York is about $3.6 million under that second apron with three open roster spots. That means they can only fill one with a veteran minimum deal. That was going to be Shamet, but if he’s out for a lengthy period, the Knicks can’t keep him. They simply don’t have the depth to ride out a long-term absence.

The bench is going to be a series of test-and-adjust trials for Tom Thibodeau. We can make all the jokes about how he’ll just play the starters 45 minutes per night, but Thibodeau needs to cobble together some form of bench. They’ll get there, but it might be a little bumpy until the Knicks figure it out.

Philadelphia 76ers

Wing/Forward Rotation

The Sixers are stacked at center with Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond. It’s hard to find many starter-backup combinations at the five that are better than that one.

Philadelphia also has a bunch of good ballhandling options. Tyrese Maxey is a star. Kyle Lowry is fading, but still getting it done. Eric Gordon remains an efficient scorer/shooter. Reggie Jackson has been a capable backup for years. Ricky Council IV and Jared McCain are good developmental players. And, of course, Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr. and even Caleb Martin will play as bigger guard options too.

That leaves Nick Nurse with figuring out his wings and forwards. George, Oubre and Martin are all probably going to start. That’s pretty good, even if one of them will have to masquerade a bit as a four. But George and Martin can both handle that, as they have in the past.

It’s behind them where things get a little complicated. Guerschon Yabusele is returning to the NBA to give the 76ers a true power forward. K.J. Martin is super athletic and motived to prove he’s more than just a tradable salary. But that’s about it for forward depth.

Philadelphia can afford to go a bit smaller at the four, because Embiid and Drummond will hold down the paint. Nurse has also been really good at making funky, non-traditional lineups work. There are only a couple of teams who might be able to hurt Philadelphia in their likely one-big, one-ballhandler, three-wing lineup construction. And the Sixers will be able to give it back just as good in those looks. That’s the bet Daryl Morey made when building this roster.

Toronto Raptors

Wing/Guard Rotation

Rebuilding is no longer a dirty word in Toronto. No better a source than Masai Ujiri said so. As such, the Raptors roster is a bit unbalanced right now.

Jakob Poeltl, Kelly Olynyk and Chris Boucher have the big spots handled. Scottie Barnes will start and play most of his minutes as a do-everything, playmaking power forward.

Barnes sliding up to the four full time might be natural progression, but it’s been hastened by the rest of the Raptors roster. This team has a lot of guards and wings.

RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are both going to start alongside Barnes and Poeltl. Quickley will be the team’s point guard, while Barrett will fill one wing spot. That other perimeter spot is wide open.

Bruce Brown would have been in the mix, but he’s out to open the season after a knee cleanup surgery. Rookie guard Ja’Kobe Walter suffered a preseason shoulder injury and will also be out to open the year.

Even after taking Brown and Walter out of the mix, the Raptors still have Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Davion Mitchell and 2024 second-rounders Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead.

Dick looks like he’s in line to start. After a rocky start, Dick shot 39% from behind the arc over the season’s last four months. That’s the kind of shooting this team is begging for around Barnes, Barrett and Quickley as playmakers.

Agbaji is at a bit of a crossroads. He flashed at time with the Utah Jazz, but was a mess in Toronto. Agbaji is also 24 years old as a third-year prospect. That suggests he might be closer to a finished product than a still-developing player. Still, Agbaji is going to have a chance at a rotation role, but he needs to make shots to keep it.

Mogbo is the kind of guy who is unassuming at first, but always doing positive stuff when he plays. He’s probably best as a four right now, which means he may soak up whatever minutes are left behind Barnes. Eventually, as his game rounds out, Mogbo should be a nice combo forward off the Raptors bench.

Mitchell and Shead are both bulldogs on defense, which Toronto coach Darko Rajakovic will love. Shead is also a pretty solid playmaker. The big question, like with too many other Raptors, is if they’ll shoot well enough. One of the two will win the backup point guard spot behind Quickley. Bet on Mitchell early, but Shead is going to push him.

In a rebuilding year, none of this overlap in positions is a problem. It’s quite the opposite, as Rajakovic will have great competition for minutes. However, it does mean having some tough conversations with some guys who are used to playing a lot. And when Brown and Walter return, unless Ujiri has swung another trade or two, things will only get more crowded on the perimeter.

When the NBA and the NBPA agreed to the 2017 Collective Bargaining Agreement, they introduced two-way contracts to the league. Each team was given two additional roster spots to sign players to deals that would see them split time between the NBA and the G League.

In the 2023 CBA, two-way spots increased to three per team. In theory, in the span of about six years, the NBA added 90 new roster spots league-wide.

Why “in theory”? Because the tradeoff with the additional two-way spots is a vanishing 15th standard roster spot around the league.

Over the last two years, Spotrac talked to multiple front office executives, coaches, players and agents about the changes in NBA roster-building tactics, especially as it pertains to roster spots in the two-way era. To say that opinions are mixed is an understatement.

“Two-way contracts have all but killed off the 15th spot for most of the year, true training camp invites and a lot of 10 Day contracts too,” a long-time agent told Spotrac. “A lot of teams don’t bother anymore, because they can just use their two-way guys. And don’t get me started on what it’s done to the draft.”

Since the advent of two-way contracts, almost every team has filled their available two-way spots. Outside of the Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns (who didn’t have their own G League affiliate teams for most of the two-way era), every team filled both spots, and all teams have regularly filled all three two-spots over the last two seasons. Even the Trail Blazers and Suns would eventually fill their spots, despite having to work out a flex assignment arrangement before they had their own G League affiliates.

“Look, we’re all cognizant of the cap and the luxury tax, even more so with hard caps and the aprons,” an Eastern Conference GM said. “Two-way contracts can serve as roster fillers who don’t count against the cap or the tax. That’s a win for teams working around the margins.”

To that point, as regular season rosters are finalized, teams are tighter to those margins than ever. New CBA rules introduced a second tax apron, and a whole host of new rules that can hard cap a team at either the first or second tax apron.

As we approach opening night, 12 NBA teams are hard-capped at the first tax apron. An additional four teams are hard-capped at the second apron. And, if that wasn’t enough, four more teams are already over the second apron, and essentially work as if hard-capped at the second apron.

That’s 20 of 30 NBA teams that are dealing with some form of hard cap or apron-related restrictions. Beyond that, another four teams are at or just over the luxury tax, which has long functioned as an artificial line of demarcation for team salaries.

Those are the margins the Eastern Conference GM was talking about working around. As things have become tighter and more complicated to manage, teams look for advantages where they can get them. Two-way contracts and not filling out the standard roster are a form of advantage that teams are going to use.

An Eastern Conference coach said that’s trickled down to him and his staff too.

“When I first started coaching, the medical team determined who could play and who couldn’t. Maybe around the trade deadline, the front office would tell you to hold a guy out because he was in trade talks,” the coach said. “Now, the front office gives us daily updates on our two-way guys and if they can play or not. That’s on top of the medical stuff and guys who are in trade talks. I love having the extra help, but you can’t get overly reliant on your two-way players. You never know when the front office will say they aren’t available because of game counts.”

With opening night approaching, if we remove Exhibit 9/10 contracts from roster counts, there are currently 19 open standard roster spots around the NBA. The league is required to roster an average of 14.5 players per team on standard contracts. That works out to 435 players against 450 possible standard roster spots.

As you can see, the league is currently four short of reaching that minimum. Now, that will be partially handled by a rule introduced in the 2023 CBA that requires teams to be at a minimum of 14 players for no more than 14 consecutive days (a carryover from previous CBAs) and a total of 28 days (new 2023 CBA addition). Teams will dip under 14 players on standard contracts from time to time, but it won’t last for very long.

However, there is no rule stating that a team has to be at 15 players on standard deals. And that’s where teams have gotten increasingly creative.

“We’re a tax team. We’re already going to get hit with a tax bill. So, a natural question we ask is ‘Does it make sense to fill the 15th spot?’”, a Western Conference front office executive told Spotrac. “Some years, it does. Some years, it doesn’t. Sure, we hope if we don’t fill it, our owner will give us some leeway later, but that doesn’t always happen. Billionaires don’t become billionaires by throwing money away.”

An Eastern Conference front office executive put it in even simpler terms: “Is it worth spending a bunch of money for a guy who isn’t going to play? Our coaches and players will obviously say yes. But our owner will probably say no. My job is to find that happy medium. And with two-way guys and 10 Day deals, we can get around filling that spot until late in the season, if we’re going to be a playoff team.”

A prominent veteran player feels different, for obvious and not-so obvious reasons.

“I’ve been bouncing around for a few years now. It’s way harder to make a team at the end of the bench than it used to be. Some organizations want vets in those spots, but they probably have a guy in that role who they’ve had for years, you know?”, he said. “That means I have to earn my spot by bringing something that team doesn’t have. But even then, if they’d rather develop a kid on a two-way, I know I’m not going to make it. That’s why a lot of guys are just going to Europe or China and taking the money and the big role.”

Of the 19 open roster spots, they belong to 16 different teams. Of those 16 teams, nine are already into the luxury tax. Recent history suggests that most of those teams will leave the 15th spot open going into the season. That’s roughly one-third of the league that will carry an open spot for a while.

Now, to be fair, it’s extremely rare for a team to leave their final roster spot open all season long. As the Eastern Conference front office executive said, a playoff team will almost always fill that 15th spot before the end of the season. That’s because two-way players aren’t eligible to play in the playoffs, and no team wants to be caught with a lack of depth in the postseason, should they suffer injuries. That’s another reason why the league doesn’t miss out on the 14.5 players per team roster requirement.

“After the trade deadline and buyout season, it’s an absolute dogfight for roster spots,” an agent told Spotrac. “You’ve got teams that are tanking and willing to tryout guys, but you’ve also got playoff teams looking for guys too. The challenge is, more and more teams would rather just promote a two-way guy than sign a player who isn’t in the league.”

Another agent said, “It used to be that after the trade deadline, I could count on getting my guys 10 Day contracts without any kind of worry. That’s become less, because teams will just use their two-way players for more games. What has changed is you’ll get two-way contract offers sometimes, but that gets tricky because a lot of teams want someone who will sign a two-year two-way deal. Our policy is to avoid locking in for that second year unless it’s the perfect spot or the only offer our guy has.”

Let’s talk about 10 Day contracts. The NBA has had the leaguewide roster minimum for several years now. One way teams work around that is by bringing players in on 10 Day contracts. Initially designed to give teams a replacement player when a player was placed on the Injured List (the NBA did away with the Injured List many years ago, in favor of a by-game Inactive List), 10 Day contracts have also been used differently over the years.

Since the 2017-18 season, when two-way contracts became a thing, the NBA has seen the following amount of 10 Day contracts signed, per Spotrac tracking data:

• 2017-18 – 62
• 2018-19 – 63
• 2019-20 – 32
• 2020-21 – 65
• 2021-22 – 225
• 2022-23 – 40
• 2023-24 – 64

There’s some context needed here. The 2019-20 season was cut short before 10 Day contract season (post-trade deadline and buyout period) could fully pick up. The 2020-21 season was shortened and with tightened COVID protocols, teams didn’t bring in extra players very often. In 2021-22, the rules were adjusted to allow for 10 Day hardship signings when players were out due to positive COVID tests. This caused a massive spike in 10 Day contracts and record number of players in the NBA for a single season.

If we take those three seasons out of the mix, as they aren’t really representative of normal NBA operating conditions, we can see teams generally sign about 60 total 10 Day deals.

However, a bit more context is needed here. In 2022-23, with things back to normal, the number of 10 Day deals had started to dip. Last season, the number moved back up, but that’s inflated by a couple of different teams who signed several 10 Day contracts due to injury hardship allowances. For example, the Memphis Grizzlies had 33 different players appear in at least three games for the team last season. Several of those players were on 10 Day deals.

“Basically, I know I’m waiting for someone to get hurt,” a player who has shuttled between the NBA and the G League in recent seasons told Spotrac. “And that sucks! A lot of these guys are my friends. But for me to get a spot, I’m almost rooting for someone to get injured. I don’t have two-way eligibility, so I’m always going to be fighting for a spot. I’ll take one how I can get it. It is what it is.”

A Western Conference coach added, “It used to be that vets wouldn’t take a 10 Day deal. It was a full contract or nothing. That changed a few years ago. Now, vets will take a 10 Day to show you that they can still play. The goal is to catch on before playoff rosters finalize.”

One West GM told Spotrac, “We save our last spot for flexibility. If we have a need and our two-way games are getting tight, we’ll bring in a guy on a 10 Day. But pre-trade deadline, we don’t want a guy taking up a roster spot we might need in an unbalanced trade. It’s easier to leave it open and to save some money, than it is to tell a guy you are cutting him.”

To put it simply, NBA teams as a collective of 30 have a contractual responsibility to all play a part in filling out their rosters. Eventually, they get there. The league hasn’t seen the number dip under that 14.5 players per team requirement.

What’s changed is that the 15th spot sits open longer than ever before.

“I’d argue that two-way contracts have been a win for players and teams,” an Eastern Conference GM told Spotrac. “Instead of cutting a guy at the end of the preseason, they end up staying a part of the organization. They keep practicing with you, maybe even see some game time. We’ve had our coaches beg us to convert a two-way guy, simply because they get to see him work. That wouldn’t happen if they weren’t still with us.”

An agent countered that with, “Sure, some teams are great with their two-way guys. They make them feel like they are part of the team. They are invested. Other teams couldn’t give a shit about a guy on a two-way deal, especially the coaching staff. And what it’s really killed is the guys who got a partial guarantee to go to camp, knowing they might land with the G League team after. Those are completely dead now.”

What that agent is talking about is a practice that has all but disappeared from use. Teams used to regularly sign players to standard contracts that were partially guaranteed. The idea was to give the player some money, even though that player likely to be waived at the end of the preseason. The player would then likely play for that team’s G League affiliate, while waiting for an in-season callup on a 10 Day deal or sometimes even a straight standard signing.

Now, teams largely use Exhibit 9 (comes with some injury protection) or Exhibit 10 (comes with a bonus if the player later plays for the team’s G League affiliate for a period of 60 days) contracts to fill out their camp rosters. Exhibit 9 “Summer Contracts” have existed for years. Teams like to use them, because they don’t count against the salary cap or luxury tax, unless the player makes the regular season roster. Exhibit 10 deals are a newer thing, and are convertible for those players with two-way eligibility, or come with a bonus for playing in the G League.

With Exhibit 9 and 10 contracts so widely used, teams have stopped giving partial guarantees to players simply to come to training camp.

“It’s bullshit. And the teams know it. I’m not even going to say it’s a bad strategy. Why spend money if you don’t have to? And with all the ridiculous apron rules, no one wants to take on even a dollar on the books if they can avoid it,” one agent said. “But this is why guys aren’t hanging around anymore. They’re going overseas in droves now. Why play the game in the NBA, get cut and then all the money is gone in Europe and Asia?”

Another agent feels differently, “The goal is to play in the NBA, right? I want our guys as close to NBA teams as possible. How many guys are signed from overseas during the NBA season? One or two? You go overseas, and you’re gone for the year. That’s not bad for some players, because there is pretty good money in Europe, Australia, China and Japan now. And they become heroes in China and Japan. But for our guys who want to be in the NBA, we advise them to stay close to the NBA.”

A veteran player who remains a free agent added, “You have to be careful. I turned down some good offers in China and Japan, because I know I’m an NBA player. But I don’t have a contract and bills are due. You know what I mean? I wonder every day if I made a mistake. And then I see this team and that team has an open roster spot and I’m like ‘Saving a few bucks is better than having me on your team?’ It’s fucking tough, man.”

A Western Conference coach said it’s helpful to have guys playing for the G League affiliate when it comes time to fill out open spots.

“I barely have time to watch other NBA games, forget games outside of the NBA. The handful of times I see a player not in the NBA is with our G League team. And if they are in our program, at least they know our system and what we want to do. If our front office says it’s time to fill our last spot, I’d rather go with someone we can bring in with relative ease.”

The reality is that there are currently 540 NBA roster spots available each season. That’s 450 standard spots and 90 two-way spots. NBA expansion is an inevitable and impending reality. That’ll add at least 36 more spots to the league (15 standard spots and three two-way spots for each of the expected two expansion teams).

That’s 576 roster spots. Are there 576 NBA-caliber players in the world?

“Absolutely. We’re probably closer to 1000 guys who could play in the league than we are 500,” one Eastern Conference GM said.

Another Eastern Conference GM disagreed.

“It’s close. But we think of two-way players and G League players as being ‘NBA adjacent’. Are they ready for the NBA? No. Are they worth working with to get there? Definitely. So, in that sense, there are definitely more than enough NBA adjacent players to fill out our current rosters and a couple more teams when we expand.”

Players and agents are ready for expansion, almost as much as fans in cities starving for their own teams.

“Expand tomorrow, if it were up to me! I’ve got guys ready to go. There aren’t 1000 NBA guys out there, but there are probably 700. And more and more are coming every year in the draft too,” an agent said. “I’m more excited about getting more guys drafted in real spots, instead of the bullshit that happens now.”

What this agent is referring to is how the NBA Draft has changed since the advent of two-way contracts. For years, first-round picks were all but guaranteed to land on an NBA roster. Every four or five years, a player would get drafted in the first round and stashed overseas.

In the second round, draft-and-stash picks were far more common. Regularly, there would be 10 or more draft-and-stash guys each year. Now, teams have started to shy away from those opportunities. Somewhere in the range of the 40th to 45th selection in the draft, teams have begun drafting players with the express purpose of signing them to a two-way contract.

“Every agent has at least a dozen stories of a guy that only got drafted because he’d sign a two-way deal or a guy who didn’t get drafted because he wouldn’t,” an agent told Spotrac.

At the 2024 NBA Draft, 28 players were selected in the second round. (The Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns both forfeited second-round picks due to tampering violations.) Here’s the breakdown of what types of contracts those 28 players signed:

• 14 players signed standard contracts
• 11 players signed two-way contracts
• 2 players are draft-and-stashed in Europe
• 1 player is unsigned after an offseason injury

The highest a player was selected and signed to a two-way contract was 38th. The lowest-drafted player to sign a standard contract was drafted 55th.

“The second round of the draft has turned into the first round of the G League Draft. Half of the guys drafted end up on a two-way deal. The other half sign four-year NBA deals, but they are headed to the G League too. That’s taken a lot of guaranteed money out of guy’s pockets, because teams don’t even give them a partial camp deal,” an agent said.

The four-year NBA deals referred to by this agent are via the Second Round Pick Exception. Another new part of the 2023 CBA was the creation of an exception to sign second-round picks to a three- or four-year contract without having to use cap space or to dip into the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. Some agents love the guaranteed money, while others think locking in players for four years has removed earning potential for those players who outplay a contract that pays just north of the league minimum.

Team executives pushed back on that idea.

“Agents will say guys aren’t getting paid, but (Second Round Pick) Exception and two-way players aren’t playing for free. Most of them will get a bigger deal than they’d get overseas. What most agents want to do is double-dip. Get a guarantee, then sign a two-way after. Or they want a two-year deal, but with a guarantee that if their guy doesn’t pop that we’ll bring them back on another deal,” a Western Conference GM said. “If we draft you, we want you. But our opinion is that the player needs time in the G League. If we all do our jobs well, that time on a two-way deal might be for a year or less. And we’re always open to extending the Exception guys too, if they earn it.”

That last part is a key component that is worth examining. As seen with Scotty Pippen Jr.’s recent contract with the Memphis Grizzlies, toiling on a two-way deal can pay off. Pippen played for two seasons on two-way deals. He proved himself and signed a four-year deal with Memphis that will see him earn over $4 million in guaranteed salary.

Pippen is just the latest two-way success story for Memphis only. The Grizzlies have also seen Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson II promoted from two-way status with long-term standard deals in the past year.

Memphis and the Miami Heat are two examples of teams who have had great success developing players while on two-way contracts and through the G League. But whether on a two-way deal or on standard deal via the Second Round Pick Exception, it’s up to the player to put in the work.

One player who was promoted from a two-way deal in recent seasons said, “You can tell the guys who go to the G League with a bad attitude and the guys who go there to work. It’s pro basketball a step below the NBA. Go there, show out, and get your NBA deal. I know too many guys who think they are too good to have to prove it. If that was true, you’d be on an NBA team not playing overseas.”

“Look, all of what others said is true. I’m not going to say players and teams haven’t both benefitted from two-way contracts. There are a lot of examples of that,” an agent said. “But you know what I have a lot more examples of? Guys not getting deals because teams don’t want to fill that 15th spot. I’ve had teams openly tell me ‘We have 50 games for each of our two-way guys.’ as the reason they won’t fill out their roster. Overall, that’s a loss for everyone.”

So…what’s the fix? That’s a complicated, and admittedly selfish answer for all parties involved.

“Personally, I don’t have an issue with it. I did my time on a two-way and I got chances because our team left roster spots open. I wouldn’t have gotten minutes if another guy was already on the team,” the promoted player told Spotrac.

A Western Conference front office executive gets that line of thinking.

“Players have to work no matter what the situation is. It’s hard to make our league. Really, really hard. Sometimes having one less guy to compete against can work for a player.”

Most agents disagree. One said, “Owners are cheap. They’ll talk flexibility and all that shit, but it’s really that they don’t want to spend extra money. And that’s been a loss for players, because they miss out. Not just on the immediate money, but years of service and all the other stuff that adds up over time.”

NBA teams have transitioned how they build rosters over the years. Rosters have grown in size since the league was formed. There was a time when the league’s original coaches believed you needed 10 players to run a practice and that was enough.

Now, there are up 540 players in the NBA at a given time. That may seem like a big number, but it’s still the smallest of all of the major sports leagues by a pretty wide margin. With limited roster spots and increasingly complex and burdensome luxury tax and apron restrictions, NBA teams are always going to be cautious and methodical about filling out their rosters.

One Eastern Conference GM put it in the simplest terms of all.

“If filling the 15th spot matters this much, we’d fill it. If you are that worried about your 15th man, I’d say you have a whole lot more you should be worried about.”